Seahawks will pick 11th or 12th in the draft

After a 23-20 defeat to Arizona today, the Seahawks will pick 11th or 12th overall in the 2012 NFL Draft. They will hold a coin toss with Kansas City, who beat Denver 7-3.

Had Indianapolis, Tampa Bay or Minnesota won today, Seattle would’ve avoided a coin toss. They had been picking at #14 before the final weekend of regular season play, but wins for Philadelphia and Arizona moved the Seahawks up two spots. Their ability to get lucky on a 50/50 chance will determine whether they move up even further. Seattle’s opponents for the season ended 131-125 (0.512), the exact same number as Kansas City. Recent history suggests the coin toss will take place at the combine in Feburary – that is when Jacksonville & Chicago (2010) and Atlanta and Tampa Bay (2006) held there’s.

Here are the players taken in the last three years at #11 and #12:

#11 Aaron Maybin (LB, Penn State), #12 Knowshon Moreno (RB, Georgia)

#11 Anthony Davis (OT, Rutgers), #12 Ryan Mathews (RB, Fresno State)

#11 JJ Watt (DE, Wisconsin), #12 Christian Ponder (QB, Florida State)

2012 Draft order so far:
1. Colts
2. Rams
3. Vikings
4. Browns
5. Buccaneers
6. Redskins
7. Jaguars
8. Panthers
9. Dolphins
10. Bills
*11-12. Seahawks/Chiefs (coin toss)


  1. Scott

    Can’t wait for this off season, should be a lot of fun.

  2. David

    hoping minny will like our pick to trade with

    i think Cleveland trades with indy. but i still have a feeling they take weapons for McCoy and not trade their picks

  3. Ed

    1. indy (luck) cut manning, manning to jets, sanchez needs team (maybe hawks)
    2. rams trade out with washington, wash (rgiii)
    3. viking (kalil)
    4. browns (richardson)
    5. bucs (claiborne)
    6. rams (blackmon)
    7. jags (martin)
    8. panthers (kuechly)
    9. dolphins (reiff/decastro)
    10. bills (coples)
    11. chiefs (upshaw)
    12. seahawks (ingram/branch??????)

  4. Darnell

    If no QB, I like Nick Perry. Explosive edge rusher with a whole lot of upside.

  5. Ed

    probably 2nd/3rd rounder, so maybe go decastro (to fill gallery spot) or olb (take over for hill) then go perry in 2nd

  6. Brian

    Yeah, it really seems like the Rams will want to trade down. I think Miami is more likely than the Redskins, though. Shanahan doesn’t like trading up.

  7. Jim J

    Minnesota will probably take the #2 QB after watching Ponder’s poor perfomance and then getting injured.

  8. Rob

    I still maintain that Peyton Manning will end up in Washington, possibly with the Redskins adding Ryan Tannehill to be the long term successor. Can easily see Cleveland taking Richardson with their first pick and looking at other QB options. That would leave RG3 for Miami. The Dolphins may be the team to overtake if you want Griffin, and Carolina sitting at #8 wouldn’t be an overly expensive trade. I know the hype right now is that Griffin will end up going #2 overall, but I’m not buying it just yet.

  9. Norm M

    When’s is the coin toss? Either way, it will be a fun off season. Jackson once again showed why we need a QB. To bad RGII will be long gone. Hope we don’t settle for a QB and spend an early round pick just to fill a need. At this point a DE seems to be a need that could be filled in the late first round. Here’s to hoping for a trade down and extra picks.

  10. Norm M

    The coin toss will happen at the combine in February? ( ESPN).

  11. Rob

    As I noted in the article, the coin toss will likely take place at the end of February.

  12. Ryan

    Assuming the Rams won’t deal with us, we’ll have to wait until after the 2nd pick is made to make sure WAS/CLE/MIA doesn’t trade up to #2, then we can trade up to #3 ourselves.

    Is there any chance STL deals with us? Is there any history of such an interdivisional deal?

  13. Mr Fish

    What other teams might be in a bidding war with us for Matt Flynn? Where he and Manning go will have a lot to do with how this draft shapes up.

  14. James

    RGIII will go in the top 3, probably via trade, so the Seahawks can forget him. They don’t have enough to offer to trade ahead of several other teams, not to mention that the trade will probably be through the Rams, who won’t deal with Seattle any way. I also believe the Seahawks will take Nick Perry, and Schneider may trade for Matt Flynn to “compete” with T-Jack. If you observed how much better Skelton moved in the pocket than TJ, it was pretty disturbing to see how far the Hawks have to go at the QB position, with no real solution in sight. If Pete and John can’t pull a rabbit out of a hat, they should be gone after next year and let’s find someone who can find a QB. Until Seahawks fans demand a championship, and stop accepting excuses, they won’t get a championship.

  15. Mr Fish

    Flynn will be a free agent. No trade necessary, just a ride on the seaplane and a boatload of cash.

  16. Rob

    I’d let somebody else give Flynn his seaplane ride and cash personally. His name never cropped up when the Seahawks were looking for trade options (Kolb was linked, Trent Edwards was liked) before they eventually made a move for Whitehurst. The QB’s they’ve signed (Jackson, Whitehurst and Portis) have a different skill set to Flynn. I could see him ending up in Cleveland running that system, but not so much in Seattle. I’m just not sure he’s what this front office is looking for.

    James – I’m not convinced Griffin will go quite that early and it’s something I’ll write about tomorrow. Perry would be a reach in round one depsite a recent bout of interest from one or two high profile bloggers and despite being from USC, I’m not sure he’s the kind of player this team will draft quite that early.

  17. PatrickH

    James – Matt Flynn will be an unrestricted free agent. So there will be no need to trade for him, unless GB franchise tagged him (but they are more likely to tag their playmaker TE Finley instead).

    Mr Fish – I can see Cleveland trying to sign Matt Flynn. Holmgren could see him as another Hasselbeck.

  18. Morgan

    I’ve never been a big Flynn fan either, but at some point you have to say to yourself: “The guy just threw for 500 yards and 6 touchdowns.”

  19. Turp

    Cleveland signing Matt Flynn is one of the best case scenarios for the Hawks, along with Shanny grabbing Manning from the Colts (and drafting Richardson). Then we’d only really have to compete with Miami or Buffalo for RG3; and if we’re going best/best case, they are sold on Matt Moore/Fitzpatrick (gave him the contract).

  20. Mr Fish

    Rob – Fair enough. But after his game today, Flynn’s going to be a sought-after free agent. If he leaves GB, it will mean one less team looking for a QB in the first round. He’s this year’s Kevin Kolb.

    FWIW, some people commenting on the blogs did mention Flynn last year when everyone was talking about Kolb as a possible target in free agency. We didn’t hear anything about from Schneider or Carroll, of course, but they’re building a reputation for misdirection and being tight-lipped about their plans.

  21. Turp

    Fish – love the comparison to this year’s Kolb. If we’re lucky, Flynn will go to one of those QB needy teams in front of us.

  22. Jim J

    I still say the Vikings will take RGIII. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain either immediatelly by upgrading their qB or in a future trade. For those who say they should take a left tackle, it takes 5 linemen to protect a QB and the draft is full of them, but there is only a few (two) elite QBs available. So what will we deal to the Vikings for a potentially great QB.

  23. Ed

    Indy will have to cut manning (who will trade for that $28 mil), and if he can go anywhere why would he go to washington. if/when he is cut, he wants to get another championship and i think the jets would get the nod. flynn to cle sounds good to me (going to be overpriced). and i agree that about buf/mia. both qb’s played pretty well, so trading up will cost too much. it’s cleveland or wash for rgiii

  24. PatrickH

    If Peyton Manning is cut by the Colts, is he still subjected to the waiver claim process? Or has he been with one team for so long that he’s no longer subject to that process? Does anyone know?

    If Manning is not subjected to waiver claim, then he will have control over where he will end up. I don’t see him wanting to go to the Redskins, where he will have to compete against and impact the playoff chances of his brother. He may want to go to a team like the Jets that is one QB away from a Superbowl run.

    It will also be hard for the Colts to trade Manning. They have to pay him $28 million before the trade period starts.

  25. Ed

    just don’t see min drafting a qb again. they need ol and cb help very badly

  26. Rob

    Jim J – I’d be more inclined to agree if Minnesota were changing their coaching staff or GM. You don’t draft a QB at #12 and move on a year later, especially when they came into this season probably not intending to use Ponder much. I didn’t like their choice last April, but they’ve made their bed to an extent.

    Ed – I’m not sure the NYJ will move on from Sanchez just yet. Let’s not forget, he’s a top-five pick in the old rookie salary system and will be a nightmare to bench or cut. It sounds like they’re going to make sweeping changes to their offensive coaching staff, probably in an attempt more than anything to salvage Sanchez’s career. In 12 months time, maybe they seriously look at alternatives.

    Patrick – If Manning is cut he will be a free agent per the waiver rules – he will not have to go through waivers. I disagree about Washington though – they have a veteran coach, solid defense and an opportunity for Manning to leave his mark on a big-time franchise. I’m not sure Manning would thrive playing for Rex Ryan.

  27. Will

    Vikings won’t take RGIII. Ponder has played decently this year and they have a lot bigger issues (their secondary, another receiver next to Harvin, offensive line, etc.) to fill. Not to mention that, as of now, I haven’t heard anything about them canning Spielman or Frazier.

  28. David

    I could see the hawks trading with the Bucs, if the Browns take Richardson, that would give us the 5th and a chance to get Mr. Griffin.

    i find myself getting irritated with mocks (as much as i love them) because it seems like everyone of those mocks has us taking either Landy Jones or Tannehill with our 1st pick. just because we need a QB.

  29. Rick

    Yah, i dont see Vikes taking a QB, why would they take another QB when the spent a 12th pick on one? i think theyll go either WR or CB or hell even trade it back, plenty of WR’s later in the round and good CBs.

  30. Jeriod Klovas

    I have to admit I feel a little bit guilty, and a little bit ashamed. When we looked horrible at the beginning of the season and were 2-6, I was hoping we would lose out. I mean seriously we weren’t very good, time to start thinking about the draft. Think about the possibilities of having Luck or Barkley on our team. Then we started winning, and I was torn, well kind of, deep down I wanted to win, but our record had me wanting to lose out. I was thinking, just think how high in the draft we could pick.
    As the season progressed and we started winning I cared less and less about our draft position. I want to win, I mean look at the good teams, the playoff teams, they don’t draft high very often and yet they still maintain their winning ways. And it sucks to watch the team you love lose. Who wants to sit through a 2-14 season or another 4-12 season? I want to see the Seahawks win. We have been through too many seasons of garbage. Longing for the draft which will bring us our saviors, but that has rarely happened. So here we are a typical Seahawks season 7-9 average, but not really average the 2nd half of the season inspired some real hope. Our defense is for real, we have an offensive line with talent and depth, I mean look at all the injuries, yet Lynch is still a beast. Young talent at receiver. I am not sure at the QB position, it seems to me that Jackson can’t get it done when it is needed. I am not sure we can get our QB this year via the draft, but I do have faith in JS and PC that they will bring in someone who can make the team better. We lost to AZ, which hurt I wanted to win that game, finish the season off right, but we do get the consolation prize of picking higher, so let’s let JS and PC do what they do. Who drafted Matt Flynn?

  31. bballpapa

    If your Indy with so many holes to patch – wouldn’t seem logical to get the absolute most return from the position your in? Cutting Manning gets them one player – sure Luck is a once in a decade player, but with a bounty of picks they could get a future QB later in the draft or even next year and fill many holes with those picks this year. If I’m Indy, I trade the pick re-stock the shelves and find a top-notch future QB to mentor behind Manning who has meant everything to that franchise. Help him win it all one more time! and the only way to do that is to leverage your position and stock pile talent. Luck is tempting for them, but they could really upgrade the team and still have one of the best QBs to ever play. (this all changes if Manning is not going to be healthy enough to play again – but why sign him to a huge deal prior to the season if he was never going to play again?? Obviously the Indy intell told them he would play agian )

  32. Danzell

    After what Flynn did to the Lions, without Greg Jennings and with at team that really didn’t had to much to play for, then i would say that Flynn is proving to be a viable option and certainly for real. Don’t forget that he in his first Career start almost managed to beat the Patriots last year.

    And after having done something that Favre and Rodgers hadn’t been able to do in all the time they’ve been the starters in Green Bay in his 3rd start, you can’t no longer deny that the talent is there to be a good starter in this league, even though I know it is still early to evaluate him. But I would certainly be very optimistic if they sign him this offseason. I think he really has a very good opportunity to be a good QB for Seattle especially with the pieces we already have in place.

  33. Rob

    I would be very careful to make those assumptions based on one game, Danzell. Yes it was a good performance, but to assume he’s capable of starting in the NFL now because of one game would be a major mistake. I keep coming back to the college tape where he looked like the 7th rounder he became. I’m not saying there’s zero chance he’s developed from that, but committing to him as a long term starter on a big contract would be a huge gamble.

  34. Dmob

    Flynn will want to go to a team with some upside and the Hawks certainly showed a big upside in the second half of the season. Hopefully there won’t be a huge bidding war for him and the Hawks can sign him and save their valuable draft picks. As much as I want to see RGIII in a Hawks uniform, I think the price will be too high. Lets roll the dice on another back-up Green Bay QB, the last one (Hasselbeck) led us to our only Super Bowl appearance.

  35. woofu

    Manning should just retire and take his old job back at Indy as the Head Coach he was anyway.

  36. Jmpasq

    Gave up on Griffin u didnt put up the Alamo Bowl Video

  37. Danzell

    I agree that it is extremely hard to make assumptions based on the three games he has played as a pro. But my point is that I think Flynn has just as good a chance to be a potential starter for this team compared to RG3 or Barkley for that matter. We have no idea whether or not those two will ever be able to translate their potential to the pros, where Flynn on the other hand already has performed albeit it was a very small sample size we have to base those assumptions on . But the other thing is that we have to invest a whole lot of draft capital to be able to land a top QB prospect this year or even in the next class as it looks right now.

    If we somehow are in position to draft RG3 without having to trade up then so be it. But with the history this FO has finding talent in the later rounds I would really be reluctant to make a blockbuster trade to obtain him. That being said, I would be ecstatic if we could make a move to get RG3, but I just think the costs outweighs the benefits in this case especially if Flynn can get the job done.

    Regarding his college tape, I seriously doubt you would be able to know that Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck or Kurt Warner would be those QB’s they became by looking at their college tapes 😉

  38. Chooch

    I agree with bballpapa. Luck is a once-in-a-decade kind of player. This also translates to a once-in-a-decade type of trade. I seriously think they could make a haul. Trade down to the Browns, they now have 2 first rounders and a 1st next year.

    Actually, as I typed that I remember that they have the Walrus. He might be too stubborn to trade up.

    Either way, the Colts (and the Rams for that matter) should look to trade down. They both have QBs. Bradford can be good, he just needs help. Peyton Manning is a fucking Legend… I know he’s past his prime, but get some new talent, and take Kellen Moore in the third. Can you imagine Kellen Moore after 2 years learning from Manning? Silly.

  39. Richard

    The marvelous aspect of all of this, is what it is, that will happen? We all, are enthralled with what will happen and how it will play out. And it is not just us, many other non playoff teams followers, are scheming and dreaming this morning.

    We believe that Pete and John started right to work this morning to find and fill in those pieces. In a few days the players that are on this team, who now believe that they can win, will start calling the good players that they know and start talking up the Hawks. This will be the dominate conversation starter for all of us. Let it begin.

    My first new side question is….Who are the leaders on this team…on offense and defense? Who will step up and speak up now that they have a chance to win. Are they on the team yet?

  40. Rob W

    You know I’d be willing to roll the dice and give Flynn a chance here in Seattle off just that one performance alone. I remember last year after he almost beat the Pats people started to really take notice. I even recall Green Bay saying it will take a First round pick to get him, everyone kind of left it alone after that. To see the way he played yesterday and the poise he had makes me think he could be good. The best part about it was that he did it against NFL competition. I remember him at LSU (and man I dislike LSU) and I thought he was a terrible QB. But he’s sat behind one of the best QB’s in league and looks to have learned something. Get a DE in round one if we can. Pick up Flynn and lets see what he can do. I know he won’t come cheap but he sure looks better than Kolb ever has (so glad we didn’t trade for him) If we don’t we roll with a rookie QB and TJack. I’ll take Flynn please 🙂

  41. Clayton

    Rob,i have limited access in the Arab Emirates currently but wanted to let you know I am still following your posts. I have seen much discussion about flynn, and as you may recall I brought this up a few months ago. I personally do not want flynn in seattle because like you I do not think he fits what Seattle is trying to do at the qb position. I can see the Seahawks trading down to acquire additional picks but really see them using a trade to get another 1st round pick next year for Barkley and rolling the dice with T. Jackson again. We still need pass rush help and who knows what the status of a mike williams will be especially with our emerging Wr. Thanks, Clayton.

  42. David

    Rob, is there any pass rushers you see that would be worthy of a Hawk first round pick?

    i dont see us trading up but back maybe and getting some more picks and getting a QBOTF to sit behind Jackson. and besides QB and pass rusher what do you see as another need for the hawks? i was thinking RB to pair with Lynch, maybe L. james from Oregon, or even Polk among others. thanks

  43. Jim J

    Flynn’s salary is $555,000. We could pay the 4 million a year that we pay Whitehurst. He looks like an upgrade.

    I will defend the Viking’s picking RG III as QB of future or trade bait. A lot of people are thinking old style that a team wouldn’t pick a top QB two years in a row. With the rookie salary cap it makes sense that the worst team would take the best rookie off the board every year. If someone else wants him, they will have to pay through the nose.

    Besides RGIII is a big upgrade over Ponder. Sorry but Ponder will never be a great starter. The two winners of the rookie year are Cam Newton and Dalton.

  44. Dan V.

    I like Flynn as an option, to the point that if Carroll and Schneider choose to go that route I will be completely behind it. However, I just feel like they would rather draft and develop their own for the long-term, and that they’re happy enough with Jackson to believe they can do that without rushing him into the starting role.

    If I’m wrong, and they do sign Flynn, then it’s an obvious sign that they don’t trust Jackson at all, despite all their outward support of him throughout this season.

  45. Tom

    I don’t see the Vikings giving up on Ponder after spending a 1st last year and drafting another QB in RG3 with the holes Minny has. Really?

    After the Polian’s were fired today it’s speculated that Irsay will retain Manning and buck up the $28mm roster bonus in March. Via Footballtalk, “He’s heard that Irsay views Manning’s future as a “family decision” and not a “football decision.” So what does that mean?

    “It means to me that Jimmy Irsay is going to give Peyton Manning his $28 million bonus unless one of two things happen: Manning absolutely can’t play football or Manning wants out,” King said. “So I think Irsay has essentially put the onus on himself to make that huge decision.”

    This throws another opportunity into potential trades. Does anyone really believe ALuck will sign with Indy and not demand a trade via John Elway or Eli Manning, if Peyton is on the roster? Little chance!

    #1 NFL ready picks like Luck don’t ride the pine waiting for a chance. They start from day 1.

    The Polian firings open up another potential option. Pete and John need to strike while the iron is hot and it doesn’t get any hotter than us having no SB caliber QB while building a solid foundation and having Luck and RG3 potentially available and only 9 to 12 draft spots to move. Do it!

    Everything in our country is for sale at the right price and PAllen pays Pete and John to figure out what that price is and consummate the deal. That time is now, not next year in hopes of moving up for a QB or taking a flyer on some mid-round selection in ’12 in hopes of Barbara Eden appearing in the great NW.

    This will be Pete and John’s 3rd year and without going after that elite QB talent, their 5 year reign will come and go and they’ll only have themselves to blame.

    They’ll then look back saying “We should’ve tossed in that extra 3rd rounder to move up for RG3 or Luck. We built a solid foundation of young talent but didn’t nab that game changing QB.”

    Year 3 is the crossroads and they’d be foolish to sit on their hands, stand pat at 11 or 12 or move down for what? This year isn’t some monster draft like 2010 where you find Earl Thomas’ at #14. Look at the lack of talent less JJWatts potential that have been selected at 11 or 12 recently.

    Let’s stop playing around and get the QB this draft! Luck or RG3! Go Hawks! Go Pete and John!

  46. Tom

    Some other tidbits of Hawk draft trade information for the niks.

    Back in 1997, the Hawks had both the #11 and #12 selections in the 1st round due to their selection and the trade of Rick Mirer to Chicago. The Hawks moved up to the #3 and #6 selections. Here’s how those trades went down to nab Shawn Springs at #3 and the future HOFer Walter Jones at #6.

    The Hawks gave up their #11 selection plus the Hawks 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders and received the #3 pick + a 3rd rounder. The Hawks selected Shawn Springs at #3.

    Then the Hawks gave up their #12 selection + the 3rd rdr they received in moving up for Springs for the #6 pick and we drafted the awesome Walter Jones.

    We ultimately gave up only a 2nd, 3rd and 4th rdr to move from #11 and #12 to #3 and #6.

    Who was drafted at #11 and #12? Michael Booker and Warrick Dunn. It was well worth the draft selections to move up. Even the 2nd, 3rd and 4th’s weren’t much.

    It may take more than a 2nd rdr and 4th rdr to move from #11 to #3 like in 1997, but anything incrementally over that will be well spent and well worth it to grow our organization!

    Go Hawks!

  47. Tom

    Shoot, I forgot to add one other draft day trade when we moved up to the #3 slot where I believe we’ll have to be to get RG3 if Washington or Cleveland don’t make that move up.

    Was anyone here a fan in 1983 to remember this draft day trade?

    The Hawks had the #9 selection in 1983 and gave up their 2nd and 3rd rdrs that year to move up and select Curt Warner at #3.

    That was right after the Rams gave up 2 – 4th rounders to move from #3 to #2 for the best running back I’ve seen in my lifetime in Eric Dickerson from the Pony Express.

    It’s possible to move from 11 or 12 to #3 to grab RG3 if he’s there or ante up further and go to #1 for Luck.

    That time is now, fans, not next year, not pipe dreams, not trading back or standing pat and praying.

    C’mon, Pete and John, move up the board and solidify this team for the next 10 years as a team to fear in the National Football League!

    Happy New Year! 🙂

  48. Rob

    David – it’s a down year for pass rushers I’m afraid and I’m struggling to find players I’d be willing to spend such a high pick on. In the past there has been some quality at the outside and inside… even at #11 or #12. This year… flat out bad. Two players I would consider – Jarvis Jones and Star Luteleilei – are both returning to Georgia and Utah respectively. There is some DE and DT talent coming through in the current freshman and sophomore class, but this year is a big down year.

  49. Rob

    Great work Tom, some very interesting details there about the trades. Seattle’s history is reliant on those deals – some classic moves there to acquire top end talent. If there’s a way of getting at Luck, they should do it. Three first rounders? It looks expensive, but you’re only talking about two players when all is said and done. One Andrew Luck – a potential generational talent for the next decade, a potential superstar – or three other players? When you break it down like that, most people would say Luck. When you start referring to it as one pick vs three picks, people want the picks. We over value draft picks over winning, and getting Luck at that price would be a calculated gamble. Put an elite QB on this roster and suddenly you’re talking about a potential powerhouse franchise and one permanently wound-up John Harbaugh. It probably won’t happen, but I’m in for it.

  50. Tom

    I’m like you and want to give up the least amount of draft selections but how long do we wait and hope to get a franchise QB? Hope for Barkley in 2013? Maybe I’m just impatient but even with our deficiencies, I could see RG3 taking this 7-9 Hawk squad to 10-6.

    With RG3 do we lose to Cleveland? Lose to the Skins? Lose both games to San Fran? Lose to Zona yesterday? Maybe another play or two against Atlanta and we win that shootout.

    It takes some Luck, no pun intended, and timing to field a SB squad and with our youth, a 22 yo gun slinger for 2012 would be ideal. As the youth develops, we suddenly have an experienced talented team comprised of 25 – 27 yo’s with a franchise QB under center that can shread defenses that Green Bay and N.O. put on the field and enough firepower to overtake the 9ers.

    Just like we did in 1983 and 1997, moving from #9/#11 to #3 didn’t cost us much looking back and Warner and Big Walt were cornerstone pieces on the only 2 Seahawk squads to get to the Conference Championship game.

    I know in my heart and gut that this is the year to make a similar move up the board and snag a Luck or RG3.

    I hope for John and Pete’s sake and job security, they have that same gut feeling and vision that I have for our team! That time is NOW… 😉

    Go Hawks!

  51. David

    I was thinking the same thing about this years Pass rushers, i think the mid round pass rushers are good, would you agree?

    i jus dont know what we should get or go after if we cant get a QB in the 1st.

  52. Rob

    Tom – I generally agree. And I actually value picks less than anyone I’ve ever spoken to. I’ve always believed players win Championship’s, not picks. Quantity doesn’t always equal quality. If there’s a guy you like available who will make a defining difference in your quest for a title, you get them and don’t worry about the other two guys who may or may not have worked out in round 2-3. Calculated risks are crucial, bad risks will kill you. So will no risks.

    David – Across the board it’s a weak year for pass rushers. I’ll be honest, I think we’re going to have to trust PC and JS to pull a rabbit out of the hat here on the defensive line.

  53. rthorpe

    There is another way to look at this.

    1. Sign Flynn, and it will unquestionably be called “over paying”, but isn’t the new CBA setup to pay veterans more money? By raising the floor on the salary cap, and limiting what draft picks make, teams are going to have to spend more money. I wonder who are the people that are going to assign that number, Agents or GMs? But if you do sign Flynn, you keep all draft capital to fill holes on the team. You then can implement a draft strategy that will keep the franchise healthier long term, than if you trade that draft capital for one player.

    2. If a top three team came to you and said, “Give me your 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for the next 2 years would you do it? Is Seattle’s team that close to not only making the playoffs, but also competing in the Superbowl? At this point in the regime of Carroll, and Schneider, I think Seattle are closer than what outsiders think. Are the systems for success in place both offensively and defensively? To me that answer is no, and because of that, I would seriously consider trading the farm for either qb. And because Schneider and Carroll seem to take a lot of pride in finding late round, undrafted players that make a difference.

    3. Does Seattle try and trade back from the pick and gain extra picks? I saw where someone said trade out of the first this year to gain an extra 1 next year, which I had never considered. I do think it is somewhat reckless to use that strategy based on a specific player. But it does seem like that strategy is used by a lot of perennial contenders. And in trading back can you still obtain your guy, strictly speaking qb? Does a guy like Tannehill fit the system better than a guy like Griffen III?

    4. Do you simply stand pat and think T. Jackson can win for you? Skelton from the Cardinals certainly seemed to make a pretty big jump in year 2, to his credit or not. Do Scneider and Carroll see the same thing in Jackson?

    Whichever way they go this will prove to be a the most important off season in the regime of Carroll and Schneider. And it will also be the most telling of what they think the blueprint is.

  54. Jim J

    I would love to see us draft a great QB. But it could be argued that Tavaris (and Lynch) would have looked much better if we had a healthy front line. He got hit more times than I care to think about. Sometimes he held onto the ball too long. But if we had a good offensive line that wouldn’t be an issue. So it wouldn’t break my heart if we continued to work on the entire team, not only good starters but good backups too. That will take another two years of drafting.

  55. Colin

    Tarvaris can win 10 games with a club, I have no doubt of that. But we’ll never get to a Super Bowl with him. If you can trade for Luck or RG3, you have to.

  56. Meat

    Love Tom’s posts. If I was PC and JS I would trade all my pics after reading Tom’s post.
    If the team didn’t need more depth in key positions and a sack machine I would be even less torn to give it up for Luck/RGIII, but isn’t every other team fanbase saying the same thing that isn’t in the playoffs this year? Get those QB’s!

    I do agree with Tom and Rob in the fact the originization needs to take a risk and must do it now. Luck would start, RGIII may sit one year behind Jackson and Cable would have the O’line working like a well oiled machine.

    If they don’t grab the QBOTF now then when? They could be putting it off indefinately if that is the approach. They need to take the risk. Let me rephrase that, MUST must take the risk. There is no way this team would get a top 5 pick next year with the foundation they have built. Barkley may be the first pick in the draft, and they are in the same situation again next year except Jacksons contract is over and the Hawks only have Portis (and whoever they added to the roster this offseason). Trade down this year and get another “conditional first rounder” next year? Will that be enough to land Barkley? Two possibley mid-round first rounders and whatever else they want to give up? If they are willing to do that next year, then why not this year?

    The more I think about it the more I am convinced they must grab the QB this year and not a third rounder that will sit for one year. Not if the Hawks are playoff/SB bound.

    I too am jumping on this bandwagon and “demanding” as another post eloquently put it that the Hawks get Luck or RGIII!!!!

  57. Tyler

    Rob, does the news that Whitney Mercilus is going pro change your evaluation of the prospect of first round pass rushing talent for the Hawks? Do you think 11 or 12 would be too high for a guy like that?

  58. Rob

    Mercilus is a difficult one to work out, Tyler. Big time production this year – but there’s no obvious reason why. He’s not an elite speed guy who outclasses college lineman off the edge. He’s not really technical, he’s not a brawler. He’s not overly powerful and he’s the size of a 3-4 rusher. Yet he gets it done. It bothers me that there’s not even one play that you’d call ‘his move’, but at the same time hard to argue with the stats this year.

  59. Tyler

    Thanks Rob. Their bowl game was the only game I watched this season and my reaction was one of complete confusion. “That guy is the sack leader in college football?” He certainly seems intriguing though.

  60. Tom

    Rob, I agree with you and believe this is the year for that calculated risk for Luck or RG3. It’s not a monster draft for Hawk need areas and being at 11/12, the Hawks are in striking distance to move up to #3 or #1.

    Meat, thanks for the kind words. There is no better time for Pete and John to go for that elite QB talent. They gave up a 3rd and trade down for CW in year 1, brought in TJack to transition with Bevell in year 2 and enough is enough. You can’t continually place bondo at the QB position.

    This is the year PC/JS need to give the diehard Hawk fans that game changing QB and both Luck and RG3 are guys that give you confidence that you’re never out of a game when they’re behind center.

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