Author: Rob Staton (Page 375 of 422)

Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.

Updated mock draft – 14th December

December 14, 2011 /

There are several changes in this week’s projection. Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) and Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) will return for their senior years and enter the 2013 draft. Andre Branch (DE, Clemson) makes a big jump into the top-15. He’s had a good season (10.5 sacks) and has the kind of relentless approach, burst, length and busy hands that could make him a productive player at the next level. A lack of pass rushers in this year’s draft could easily promote a player like Branch into the top-15.

Washington fans will probably argue strongly against any projection that has them passing on the quarterbacks at #4. However, it almost makes too much sense for Peyton Manning to find his way to the Redskins, offering Dan Snyder a big-name who can instantly make his team a contender in the NFC East. If Indianapolis does intend to keep the #1 pick, they’ll surely have to release Manning. That would allow Washington to solve their biggest problem before the draft and possibly add a dynamic playmaker like Trent Richardson. Mike Shanahan could bang the table for Ryan Tannehill as his long term QB project and eventual successor to Manning. It’s not such a ridiculous proposition, even if Washington passing on Matt Barkley and Robert Griffin III seems like a stretch at this stage.

Of course, such a scenario would push the two quarterbacks down the board, with Griffin III going to Miami at #7 and Barkley to Cleveland at #8. In this situation the Seahawks could realistically see Carolina (#5) and Jacksonville (#6) as possible trade partners. There’s no getting away from the fact Seattle needs to draft a quarterback and sitting around waiting for that player to arrive over the next few years isn’t going to cut it. There is a lot of talent on this team, but the 6-7 record doesn’t lie. If the Seahawks are going to become a regular playoff contender, they need to know who their quarterback is for the long haul.

I don’t include trades in my mock drafts, so we’ll have to keep looking at alternatives even if I’d like to believe trading up is a strong possibility. This week the Seahawks draft Penn State defensive tackle Devon Still.

He’s not the kind of dominating interior lineman we’ve seen available in previous drafts (Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Nick Fairley, Corey Luiget, Phil Taylor) but he’s the best available in this class. The Seahawks don’t run an orthodox scheme, and the current rotation of lineman do a good job against the run. There’s still room for a productive three technique, especially one that can double up as a five-tech on certain downs. Still’s best position may actually be at the five, but he’s also an intriguing developmental option as a penetrative inside rusher. He tends to be inconsistent and his hand use needs to get a lot better – he’s quick rather than powerful or technical. He’ll slip a gap with agility, but when he has to brawl he sometimes struggles. It’s a technique issue more than anything, which is why he might be better taking on one blocker rather than working the middle. His versatility, however, makes him an option for the Seahawks and he’s got the foot speed and mobility to offer something different to this defense.

Updated mock draft – 14th December

#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)
The Colts are facing a difficult situation where they’ll have to either cut Peyton Manning or trade this pick. Interesting times ahead.
#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC)
The Vikings have many needs, but the biggest is probably at left tackle. Kalil will be one of the best OT’s in the NFL as a rookie.
#3 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU)
He keeps making plays – eleven interceptions in two seasons. St. Louis’ secondary is plagued by injury and lacks quality.
#4 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)
I keep coming back to Peyton Manning and Washington. It’s an ideal fit, allowing the ‘Skins to draft Richardson here and perhaps add Ryan Tannehill later.
#5 Jarvis Jones (LB, Georgia)
He says he won’t declare, but after a prolific 13.5 sack season, a top-ten grade could change his mind.
#6 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina)
The complete package at receiver – size, speed, good hands, competitive, adjusts to the ball. Ideal fodder for Blaine Gabbert.
#7 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)
Some teams are going to fall for Griffin, who’s ended the year on a crest of a wave. He’ll help sell tickets in Miami.
#8 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
This would be an absolute steal for Cleveland. Barkley is an elite talent who can start as a rookie.
#9 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College)
A tackling machine who will help solidify Tampa Bay’s defense. Blue collar defender with leadership qualities.
#10 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina)
Philly should use this high pick to try and find an impact player. Brown has the talent to be a playmaker in year one.
#11 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford)
Buffalo would love to find a top-end pass rusher, but they also have a need at tackle. This would be a smart move.
#12 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa)
A man of few words and a tackle’s attitude. If they appoint Kirk Ferentz as Head Coach, this could be a logical projection.
#13 Andre Branch (DE, Clemson)
They need an OT, but the top three are off the board. The next biggest need is a pass rusher and Branch will start to rise up boards.
#14 Devon Still (DT, Penn State)
The opportunity to move up will surely tempt the Seahawks to be aggressive for a quarterback. If not, Still adds an interior pass rush to go with Seattle’s stable of DT’s.
#15 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina)
San Diego could take a chance on Coples, who is best suited to the 3-4 defense. Can they pick first-round five-techs in consecutive drafts?
#16 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama)
He’s big and good in run support, but has struggled in coverage at times. Jerry Jones will like this guy, so will Eli Manning.
#17 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State)
Could he suffer a fall? He doesn’t have explosive speed, he can make frustrating errors. Blackmon isn’t a top-ten lock.
#18 Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)
Cincinnati has some promising young playmakers and Miller would add another dimension.
#19 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama)
Elite cornerback talent but troubled by off-field problems. Cincy needs to draft a corner and Jenkins is good enough to start quickly.
#20 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor)
Jay Cutler will thank the Bears if they make this pick. Wright’s playmaking qualities and deep speed will bring the best out of Chicago’s quarterback.
#21 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford)
He’s a little over rated, but should find a home in round one. New York can afford to take the best player on their board.
#22 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame)
Having drafted a new quarterback earlier, Cleveland now needs to add a playmaker. Floyd has the kind of size Mike Holmgren likes in a #1 receiver.
#23 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois)
With 14.5 sacks this year, someone will give him a chance early in the draft. New York needs to add to it’s outside pass rush.
#24 David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech)
Electric running back who adds another dimension to Denver’s offense. They could also look at Kelechi Osemele.
#25 Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State)
He could be better than DeCastro, but doesn’t get anywhere near as much hype. This would be a smart move by Detroit.
#26 Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington)
His potential to play nose tackle will keep him in round one, even if his play has been inconsistent for the Huskies.
#27 Peter Konz (OC, Wisconsin)
Stood out last year in a big-name Badgers offensive line. Could return for another year, but ready to have an impact as a pro.
#28 Kevin Reddick (LB, North Carolina)
Bill Belichick doesn’t make obvious picks and could spring a surprise. Reddick can play any of the LB positions – seriously under rated.
#29 Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (DT, Baylor)
He’s no Phil Taylor, but every time I’ve watched Baylor this year he’s been the one defensive player who looks to have some pro-potential.
#30 Oday Aboushi (OT, Virginia)
I’ve seen Virginia twice this season and Aboushi looks like a NFL tackle. Baltimore needs to bolster that offensive line.
#31 Vontaze Burfict (LB, Arizona State)
Although I think his stock is falling, someone could take a shot on Burfict. My guess is he’ll end up playing AFC North.
#32 Mark Barron (S, Alabama)
He’s having a good year but his stock is limited due to the position he plays. This would be a nice get for the Packers.

Landry Jones falling, Seahawks would pick 14th

December 13, 2011 /

Landry Jones has consistently struggled to deal with pressure

Landry Jones falling down the draft boards

Since the summer, we’ve made a case on this blog that Landry Jones isn’t worth a first round grade. Very few others voiced such an opinion, but it appears the tide is changing for Oklahoma’s quarterback. Russ Lande at the Sporting News says NFL scouts are lukewarm to Jones after a disappointing season where he regressed, particularly down the stretch:

“After a season in which he went through some ups and downs, a number of scouts believe he is not worth drafting in the first round.

“There is little doubt Jones has the ability to get rid of the ball quickly and has the touch to make accurate deep passes, but there are some concerns about his a ability to move in the pocket and his accuracy on short and intermediate passes.

“After Andrew Luck, the top prospect in the draft, we are hearing that USC’s Matt Barkley and Baylor’s Robert Griffin III will be the next two quarterbacks taken (it’s impossible to predict which one will go first right now). Then, things get interesting. We have heard that a number of teams would take Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill before Jones.”

I’m not surprised that teams could prefer Tannehill to Jones. There’s only ever been two sure-fire pro-prospects in this class (Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley), but that group has been boosted by the emergence of Robert Griffin III. Demand won’t match supply next April, with at least six teams likely to consider drafting a quarterback in the first two rounds. For all of Tannehill’s faults – and there are many – he has the kind of physical qualities and potential that Jones simply doesn’t have.

There are several issues I have with Tannehill. He’s quite a robotic passer, he looks stiff throwing the ball and there’s not a real nature flow to his release. For a player of ideal size and height, he has far too many passes tipped at the LOS mainly due to his slingy 3/4 throwing motion. Tannehill locks onto receivers and he’s made too many bad decisions this year. He doesn’t have a great feel for the pocket and too often throws under pressure, when a bit more awareness would buy extra time to make an easier completion. I’ve never been sold on the hype which at one point saw Tannehill touted as a possible ‘second best’ quarterback after Andrew Luck. He’s not even close.

Even so, he’s still a much more appealing option than Jones.

The NFL is currently going through a phase where mobile quarterbacks are king. All four of the quarterbacks taken in the top twelve picks last April had plus-mobility. They weren’t flawless – Cam Newton had some off-field red flags, Jake Locker wasn’t considered a good enough pocket passer, Blaine Gabbert was a bit of a one-year wonder coming out of a pure spread system and Christian Ponder had injuries and limited arm strength on short/intermediate throws, meaning he struggles to fit passes into tight windows (evidenced perfectly against Detroit on Sunday). All four were at least above average in terms of mobility and athleticism, and they were drafted as top-end picks. Ryan Mallett had character issues that were the main catalyst for a draft board plummet. However, teams were also significantly put off by his lack of pocket mobility. Jones might not run a forty-yard dash quite as slow as Mallett, but he’s much worse at coping with pressure and extending plays.

If for no other reason, Tannehill will be favored due to his ability to get out of the pocket and make something happen. Maybe he’ll break off a run? Maybe he’ll run a naked bootleg and find a receiver downfield because he just managed to buy that extra split second on the developing route? These are things Jones just cannot do. A coach like Mike Shanahan will look at Tannehill and see a player he can work with. He’s not spent four years learning a strict offensive playbook, so maybe he can coaxed out of bad habits? Maybe you can utilise his physical potential? You’re not going to spend a high pick on the guy because there’s a real level of unknown there, but you’ll take a flier when the commitment is less severe. Seattle and Cleveland are likely to hold the same view if they don’t take a quarterback early in round one.

Put four other quarterbacks in front and suddenly Jones is on the outside looking in. Then you have to consider the possibility of teams preferring an Austin Davis or a Nick Foles. Jones could be faced with a situation where he leaves the board in a similar area to Jimmy Clausen or even Ryan Mallett. It’s hard to find a team that’s going to be the one that says, “Yes – this is the future of our franchise.” We haven’t included Landry Jones in any of our first round mock drafts so far and that’s not about to change.

Seahawks would pick 14th

One of our regular visitors, Ryan, has been calculating the draft order each week to see where the Seahawks would be picking. I’ve listed the updated order below:

1. Colts (0-13, 114 wins)
2. Vikings (2-11, 118)
3. Rams (2-11, 121)
4. Redskins (4-9, 95)
5t. Jaguars (4-9, 105)
5t. Panthers (4-9, 105)
7. Dolphins (4-9, 109)
8. Browns (4-9, 110)
9. Buccaneers (4-9, 112)
10. Eagles (5-8, 102)
11. Bills (5-8, 107)
12. Chiefs (5-8, 109)
13. Cardinals (6-7, 96)
14. Seahawks (6-7, 104)
15. Chargers (6-7, 111)
16. Cowboys (7-6, 95)
17. Titans (7-6, 98)
18t. Bengals (7-6, 106)
18t. Giants (7-6, 106)
20t. Bears (7-6, 109)
20t. Raiders (7-6, 109)
22. Falcons (8-5, 98)
23. Jets (8-5, 101)
24. Broncos (8-5, 107)
25. Lions (8-5, 113)
26. Texans (10-3, 90)
27. Saints (10-3, 92)
28. Patriots (10-3, 93)
29. 49ers (10-3, 94)
30. Ravens (10-3, 101)
31. Steelers (10-3, 102)
32. Packers (13-0, 95)

The Seahawks own the 14th pick after Monday’s comprehensive victory over St. Louis. If they’re going to select a quarterback in round one of the draft next year, it’s looking increasingly likely that they’ll need to trade up. If Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley and Robert Griffin III all declare, they won’t get past the first ten picks. There could well be one player in particular that sticks out within that trio, a player the Seahawks wish to trade up for. I don’t include trades in my mock drafts, so tomorrow’s update will again feature a non-QB paired with the Seahawks. However, I will look at the possible trade up options Seattle could have if the final order ends up being similar to the current list.

Matt Barkley to declare?

December 12, 2011 /

Tony Pauline (SI.com & Draft Insider) is reporting that Matt Barkley will announce his intention to declare for the 2012 NFL Draft in the near future. This is significant news, considering the implications it’ll have on another big-name USC prospect. Offensive tackle Matt Kalil was reported to be returning to Southern California last week, before he denied the report and stated he was still undecided. If Barkley declares, Kalil almost certainly will too – there’s little point turning down the chance to be a top-three NFL draft pick to block for an unproven quarterback, bowl game or not.

It’d also be significant in confirming there will be at least one consolation prize when Andrew Luck goes first overall. With Robert Griffin III also expected to enter the draft after winning the Heisman, there’s going to be three legitimate quarterback prospects taken within the first fifteen picks next April.

Whether Seattle can get their hands on one remains to be seen…

It’ll be interesting to monitor developments in Miami and Kansas City after both teams fired their head coaches today. Matt Moore, the current Dolphins starter, had ties to Tony Sparano when the pair worked in Dallas during the 2007 season. Moore has done fairly well as the starter, but surely Miami is looking for a big ticket quarterback to finally end the cursed post-Dan Marino era? If they appoint a young, upcoming offensive coordinator to be their Head Coach (especially one with a history of developing young quarterbacks) it could be a big hint towards their intentions in the draft. Kansas City could show a vote of confidence in the quarterbacks already on their roster if they appoint Josh McDaniels (who worked with Matt Cassel in New England) or Kirk Ferentz (who coached Ricky Stanzi at Iowa).

In both cases, the teams are keeping the GM’s who overlooked their last few drafts. Unlike the recent makeovers in Seattle or Denver, this isn’t a complete regime change. That could also play some part in determining what happens in the draft, especially with the Chiefs who invested a considerable sum in Matt Cassel succeeding.

Victory tonight for the Seahawks and they’ll have possession of the 14th overall pick. Washington, Miami, Cleveland and Kansas City would all be picking ahead of Seattle. Although optimistic fans will point towards an unlikely route into the playoffs, it does appear the Seahawks are going to miss out on a post-season berth without the bonus of a pick high enough to draft one of the three solid quarterback prospects.

Stand by for months of speculation and calculation as fans try to work out if a trade up the board is possible or likely.

Robert Griffin III wins the Heisman

December 10, 2011 /

Robert Griffin III accepted the 2011 Heisman Trophy

Robert Griffin  III won the Heisman Trophy this evening, adding to a story that should continue in the NFL next season.

It’s impossible to describe just how far Griffin has come in the last few months. He started the 2011 season as a fringe NFL draft prospect, the type of player you consider drafting due to his sheer athleticism but certainly not with a high pick. I’d watched Baylor games in the past to study Griffin and observed with frustration as he barely attempted a forward pass. He ran an exclusively screen-based offense with a few option-reads and showed very little pro-potential in the process. You only need to go back and watch the tape from the Texas Bowl loss to Illinois to realise the difference 12 months of work can make.

This season, suddenly Griffin was throwing the ball downfield regularly and with success. It started with a 50-48 win over TCU and developed into a season of impressive victories over the likes of Oklahoma and Texas. Griffin completed 72% of his passes, scored 45 total touchdowns and only threw six interceptions. Sure, he was helped by a group of dynamic receivers led by the prolific Kendall Wright – but Griffin became more than just the heartbeat of his team. Now, he too was also a dynamic and exciting playmaker. The level of development he’s made this year cannot be underestimated and it’s a great credit not just to the coaching staff in Waco, but also to Griffin himself for taking the next step.

Baylor only won nine games this season, but it’s interesting how that didn’t hamper Griffin’s Heisman bid. A few weeks ago, Andrew Luck would’ve been a nailed on certainty to win the trophy – yet a stuttering end to his final season at Stanford and Griffin’s surge combined to great effect. So how does this impact the draft, if at all?

What it does do is further raise the profile of RG3. Pundits perhaps a little tentative about promoting him into the upper echelons of their mock drafts will relax a little. Scouts and GM’s may well just get out the Oklahoma tape this evening and have another look. This was a very public form or promotion and the endearing speech he delivered in winning the trophy will have impressed many. Owners will be looking at Griffin tonight and seeing a face for their marketing plans.

Suggestions are starting to be made that this could push Griffin into #1 overall territory, ahead of Andrew Luck. We need to back that bandwagon up and park it fast. Andrew Luck is going to be the first overall pick next year, regardless of any decision this evening or whether Griffin’s socks come with their own cape. It’s a nice suggestion, but since when has any NFL team made a snap decision based on the Heisman Trophy vote in December? Luck has been the #1 pick in 2012 ever since the day he snubbed Carolina and returned to Stanford in January. Nothing has changed there.

But it’d be equally foolish to believe this won’t have any impact on Griffin’s stock. He’s seen as a trailblazer, someone with the skills, athleticism, smarts, looks and potential to lead a team – even a bad one. Being the first Baylor Bear to win a Heisman isn’t unexpected for this guy. He doesn’t really compare to anyone in the NFL right now, which isn’t necessarily a good thing, but being the first RG3 rather than the next Aaron Rodgers may be enough.

Griffin’s skill set does compare favorably, however, with what the Seahawks appear to want at quarterback. So far they’ve added mobile quarterbacks who can extend plays, run naked bootlegs/play action and get the ball downfield when needed. Pete Carroll stresses winning the turnover battle like your life depends on it. Griffin doesn’t just fit the physical desires, but also the mental side of the game – he doesn’t make bad decisions, he’s limited turnovers and he’s been creative. For those reasons I suspect he could be high on Seattle’s board.

Yet as the Seahawks head towards a .500 record and maybe even an unlikely flirtation with the wildcard playoffs, they’re drifting further away from the top ten picks where it appears Griffin is now likely to go. I think the Seahawks would consider Griffin as their guy if he were available, but they’d have to really like him to make an ambitious move up the board.

We’ll have to wait a little longer for official confirmation on Griffin’s decision on the draft (he’s a redshirt junior in 2011). Having been at Baylor for four years now and winning the Heisman, there’s very little reason not to declare. He talked about law school, but this was long before he progressed into the star we see today. He’ll lose star seniors like Kendall Wright and his draft stock will never be higher than it is now. I suspect it’s close to a foregone conclusion that Griffin will be turning pro next April.

Thursday draft thoughts: Peyton Manning to be cut?

December 8, 2011 /

Peyton Manning is Indianapolis... but maybe not for much longer

Indy facing once-in-a-lifetime decision

At the start of November I discussed the conundrum facing Indianapolis – it’s idealistic to believe Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck can co-exist on the same roster. Sure, it worked perfectly for Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, but Rodgers wasn’t the #1 overall pick and a storied college quarterback seen by many to be nearly flawless. This week we’ve seen Archie Manning state the obvious over this situation, with Mike Florio at PFT basically summing it up in this piece. Something has to give.

Luck won’t want to ride the bench for 2-3 years. He probably won’t want to ride the bench for one year. Manning doesn’t want to spend his final years at a franchise he made relevant looking over his shoulder. The Colts would like a seamless transition, but they also have reasons to choose go solely in one direction. They’re not going to be able to trade Manning before he’s owed close to $30m, because the contract clause kicks in before the league year ends. They’re not going to pay all that money, then trade Manning. It’ll work out being more than $50m for one season where Manning didn’t play a down.

They’re faced with the highest rated college quarterback in decades being there on a plate. Standing by Manning may be painfully impossible. Do you take potentially 10-15 years of Luck, or 3-4 years of Manning? Cutting Manning and making him a highly desirable free agent could not only cause shock waves across the league, it could also severely impact the draft.

I’m not convinced the Seahawks would be interested in an ageing free agent Manning, considering how much they’ve turned this team into a youth movement. It’d be the ultimate short term measure if Manning proves he’s healthy, allowing the Seahawks time to develop a long term replacement in the background. At the same time, it’s a move I just can’t envisage even if a healthy Manning could potentially turn the team into a real force in the NFC. Just ask yourself for a second whether you can imagine Manning in Seahawks blue, because I’m struggling to create that image.

Washington? Miami? Perhaps that’s a different story. You have to believe Dan Snyder would love to land a big name like Manning to make the Redskins an immediate contender in the NFC East (not to mention the two Manning vs Manning games per year would be interesting). The Dolphins need to sell tickets and as appealing as the two Manning’s facing off would be, maintaining the Brady vs Manning battle in the AFC East is another great storyline. If either were to sign Manning, they’d be less likely to take a quarterback early in round one.

That could impact the Seahawks, whether it creates another potential trade partner or simply sees a player sink down to the middle of round one where the Seahawks project to be picking.

We also can’t rule out Team Luck forcing a trade. Indianapolis has shown what life after Manning looks like, and it’s downright ugly. This is looking increasingly like a roster that will go 0-16 without their quarterback/offensive coordinator/heartbeat. However well Luck grades in college – and he’s been hyped beyond reality – he still isn’t anywhere close to being Peyton Manning. He could walk into a situation where not only does he have to try and lift a bad team in a tough division, but he has to live with being the guy the Colts cut Peyton Manning for. It’s not a stretch to imagine Luck won’t want any part of that. Life would be much easier if he joined a team not quite as bad as Indianapolis, without any recent history at quarterback.

Washington, Cleveland, Seattle, Denver, San Francisco, Miami – all places that would appear to be more logical fits. Of the group, Cleveland has the most ammunition for a trade with Indianapolis. Even so, if the Colts open trade discussions you have to believe several teams will pull out all the stops to make a deal.

Yet there’s still one more interesting dynamic here. Indy would have to cut Manning long before the draft. The moment they commit that guaranteed money, they lose an awful lot of leverage if they want to trade ther #1 pick. If the Lucks are going to force a deal and avoid Indianapolis, they’ll have to do so possibly one or two months before the draft takes place. That could create a never-before-seen auction involving picks and players. It sounds like a stretch, but this could be a unique situation. None of this will be possible once Indianapolis cuts Manning, so if a deal happens it’ll probably take place long before April.

This could be unknown territory for the NFL, but that’s hardly surprising given the circumstance. When has a team with a quarterback like Manning, a perennial contender for years, slumped this badly? Particularly in a year with such a coveted quarterback available with the #1 pick? It shouldn’t be a surprise that there’s a level of unknown here.

Matt Kalil staying or going?

A report surfaced today courtesy of Rob Rang suggesting Matt Kalil was expected to return to USC for his senior season. Kalil later responded, stating firmly he wasn’t close to making a decision. It’s long been assumed that Kalil will declare, but USC’s success late in the season (including big wins vs Notre Dame, Oregon and UCLA) could have changed things. Suddenly this looks like a USC team capable of challenging for it all, with talent continuing to surface despite recruiting sanctions and a lack of national publicity. Even a month ago, people thought USC were a good team – but not quite as good as they’ve since become. What’s more, there appears to be further room to grow. Should Kalil and Barkley return next year, USC would have an opportunity to at least win the PAC-12 and earn a Rose Bowl berth. Both will be top-ten picks next April, but that could be the case in 2013 too. They’ll only have one more chance to play in a BCS Bowl.

On the other hand, there’s no doubt both players are ready to play pro-football. Kalil and Barkley will start during their rookie seasons and probably have an instant impact. Staying at USC will be delaying the inevitable and while it’d be a great story to stay in school, there are potentially other great stories to be written in the NFL.

I suspect both players will be leaning on each other here. There’s little point Kalil returning to block for a new quarterback who will need to be worked into the system. Barkley would be taking a risk returning to college without his high quality blind-side blocker. So what happens? The fact is neither player needs to make a decision in the next four weeks, so I suspect they’ll use that time wisely to make the best possible decision. Don’t expect anything to be confirmed for a while yet.

Mel Kiper FINALLY drops Landry Jones

I have a lot of time for Mel Kiper, he’s pure draft entertainment. Having said that, I disagree with pretty much everything he says about quarterbacks. He had Jimmy Clausen as a top first round pick. He touted Dan Le Fevour as a potential first or second round sleeper. He kept Colt McCoy in his top-25 big board every week throughout the 2009 season. That’s not a great run over the last few years.

This year he kept Landry Jones as the #2 quarterback on his board after Andrew Luck. He wasn’t the only one, several other high profile pundits have been promoting Jones as a high first rounder. Finally – and it’s taken until the 8th December – Kiper has dropped Jones behind both Matt Barkley and Robert Griffin III in his rankings. I’ve never graded the Oklahoma QB as a first round pick, but his recent poor displays have convinced me further that he simply isn’t going to hack it in the NFL. That may be considered a harsh critique, but I go into more detail in this article here. You cannot invest a first round pick in this guy and expect to still be in a job a few years down the line. I’ve not included Jones in any of my first round mocks so far and I’m not even convinced he’ll declare now. It’s taken a while, but finally the big name draft pundits are catching up. Jones is not the elite talent they’ve tried to argue for most of this year.

Updated mock draft: 7th December

December 7, 2011 /

A lot of people aren’t going to like this week’s projection. For whatever reason, a lot of people can’t entertain the idea of stock piling talented receivers. Cornerbacks? Sure. Offensive and defensive lineman? You can never have too many. Receivers on the other are treated with great suspicion. The Seahawks have a better group of wide outs today than they’ve had for a long time, but there’s still room for improvement. Mike Williams has regressed this season while Golden Tate still has a lot to prove even if his performances have been improved in recent weeks. Sidney Rice needs to show he can stay healthy after another injury plagued season and Ben Obomanu is steady and reliable, yet unspectacular. Sure, there have been some high profile busts at receiver in recent years, but there’s also been some big success stories. Busts can happen anywhere, including the much fancied offensive tackle and corner back positions.

What the Seahawks don’t have is a receiver capable of scaring the life out of a defense due to pure speed. This week, I’m sending one of the most under rated players in the 2012 NFL Draft to Seattle. Baylor’s quarterback has received a lot of plaudits this year – including a Heisman nomination – but none of it would’ve been possible without Kendall Wright. Those long downfield passes you see Robert Griffin throwing are often to a wide open Wright, who has the speed to stretch the field and the ability to create separation time and time again. This season he, like Griffin, has taken the next step and become a consistent force in the Big 12. Only one player – Western Michigan’s Jordan White – has more passing yards this season. Wright’s stat line reads: 1572 yards, 13 touchdowns.

The Seahawks need to find a quarterback in this draft, even if that means trading up. BUT… if such an option isn’t possible – we have to look at the alternatives in these mock drafts. I anticipate people will ask why I haven’t got the Seahawks taking Dre Kirkpatrick instead – a player adored by many simply because he happens to be 6-2 and coached by Nick Saban. The Seahawks aren’t desperate to add yet another big cornerback, particularly one who isn’t great in coverage (a pretty big part of a corner’s game, don’t you think?). David DeCastro? Perhaps, but eventually the Seahawks have to trust what they’ve invested in the offensive line, including the coaching staff, and look at other areas of the team.

Justin Blackmon takes a fall this week and I have the Seahawks preferring Wright to his Big-12 rival. Why? The Seahawks already have receivers that offer a similar skill set to Blackmon. What they don’t have – and haven’t had for a long time – is someone with elite downfield speed. If they are forced to look at the best options available in the middle of round one, Wright has to be a possibility. And if Seattle is faced with a situation where they’re rolling with Tarvaris Jackson and developing Josh Portis or a later round pick, Wright is also someone who can have an impact running deep route’s early in his pro-career. The idea with these weekly projections is to run through different possibilities, particularly if the Seahawks are going to win their way out of the quarterback stakes.

A final word on Blackmon falling – many people see him as a top-ten lock. I’m guessing I’ll receive the usual flurry of emails arguing against one of the ‘big names’ falling. That kind of thing happens every year and Blackmon is not a can’t miss type player. If he does go in the top ten, it’ll come with a risk factor and it’ll be a reach based on need. I’ve had Blackmon in the top-five picks in previous projections, today I’m looking at the other possibility that he could fall. He’s not going to run a brilliant time at the combine, he does make several frustrating errors (see this video at the 1:16 mark), he’s not got that elite size that teams dream about and there are some slight concerns with his attitude that will need to be checked out. In many ways he’s similar to Michael Crabtree, but Crabtree was a sensational hands catcher with a tremendous wing span. Last year I gave Blackmon a grade in the 20’s and while I expect he probably will go earlier than that, I’m not convinced he’ll be taken in the same range as superior physical prospects like AJ Green and Julio Jones.

One other note… Indianapolis needs to prepare for a big decision. The noises are already being made that Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck cannot co-exist, something we’ve talked about a lot on this blog. The Colts are almost certainly going to have to choose between the two players, potentially freeing up Manning as a free agent. You have to believe teams like Washington (with an owner like Dan Snyder) will jump at the chance to sign Manning to a bumper deal for 2-3 years while quietly grooming a quarterback like Ryan Tannehill in the background. It’s a possible scenario that could open the door for Seattle if you’re hoping for one of the top three quarterbacks.

Of course, the Luck camp may not see a gig in Indianapolis – and following Manning – as the ideal situation for their man. This is a bad Indy team that could easily go 0-16. Following Manning will be like trying to follow up a brilliant first album. The Lucks could push for a better situation – again, possibly Washington but more likely a team such as Cleveland that has the ammunition to trade up. Getting a big deal for multiple round one picks could help the Colts rebuild their terrible roster, back Peyton Manning who’s done so much for that franchise and still plan for the future at quarterback. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out, but I’ll be stunned if Manning and Luck are on the same roster next season.

#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)
The Colts are facing a difficult situation where they’ll have to either cut Peyton Manning or trade this pick. Interesting times ahead.
#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC)
The Rams need some offensive playmakers more than anything, but they’ll struggle to pass on a talent like Kalil who can anchor their line for years.
#3 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU)
He keeps making plays – eleven interceptions in two seasons. Minnesota would surely love a crack at Matt Kalil, but he’s off the board.
#4 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina)
With Gene Smith extending his contract, he’ll be tasked with backing his judgement on Blaine Gabbert. That should include an offensive minded coach and a unique target like Jones.
#5 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
Elite potential and crucially he’s pro-ready. Washington needs someone who can start in year one.
#6 Jarvis Jones (LB, Georgia)
He says he won’t declare for the draft, but after a prolific season (including 13.5 sacks) a top-ten grade could change his mind.
#7 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)
Cleveland needs a playmaker on offense and Richardson would be an instant star for the Browns.
#8 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa)
More of a right tackle prospect than a blind-side blocker, Philly needs to sure up that offensive line.
#9 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)
We’re told big changes are coming in the coaching department, which usually means a new quarterback. Griffin will help the Dolphins sell tickets.
#10 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina)
Tampa Bay fans say linebacker is a big need, so why not draft a player who’s been compared to Lance Briggs?
#11 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford)
Arizona’s priority this off season has to be finding a left tackle. Martin isn’t spectacular, but he’s the best available here.
#12 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College)
Tackling machine who looks like a Scott Pioli-type player. A nice fit in Kansas City’s defense.
#13 Quinton Coples (DE, UNC)
The Bills need a pass rusher, but the options at 3-4 OLB are limited. Coples was a lot better in the second half of the season.
#14 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor)
With three QB’s off the board and no obvious defensive line options – the Seahawks have to think outside of the box. Wright could be the next Mike Wallace.
#15 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
San Diego has to add a reliable feature to it’s defense. Te’o can be a leader who performs every Sunday without fail.
#16 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford)
There’s a degree of bandwagon jumping when it comes to DeCastro. That’s not to say it won’t help promote the Washington native into this kind of range.
#17 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State)
Could he suffer a fall? He doesn’t have explosive speed, he can make frustrating errors. Blackmon isn’t a top-ten lock.
#18 Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)
Cincinnati has some promising young playmakers and Miller would add another dimension.
#19 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois)
The Jets need to add to their pass rush and could show interest in Mercilus, who leads the NCAA with 14.5 sacks this year.
#20 Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State)
Looks every bit a future NFL guard. Perhaps a little under rated and closer to David De Castro than most think
#21 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)
Having added an elite talent at running back earlier, Cleveland continues it’s offensive rebuild with a big playmaker at receiver.
#22 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama)
Elite talent who only falls due to character concerns. AJ Green and Julio Jones had their worst games against Jenkins in 2010.
#23 Kevin Reddick (LB, North Carolina)
Under rated linebacker, would be a nice compliment to Chicago’s defense.
#24 Devon Still (DT, Penn State)
Versatile defensive lineman who can fit into a number of looks. Pittsburgh can afford to take the BPA.
#25 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama)
Tall corner who’s flashed real ability in run support, but needs to improve in coverage. John Brantley shouldn’t be abusing any cornerback in the SEC.
#26 David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech)
Really productive running back for the Hokies who could have a quick impact in Denver.
#27 Peter Konz (OC, Wisconsin)
Stood out last year in a big-name Badgers offensive line. Could return for another year, but ready to have an impact as a pro.
#28 Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington)
Big nose tackle prospect. Houston switched to the 3-4 this year but could still use Ta’amu’s size up front to anchor their defensive line.
#29 Oday Aboushi (OT, Virginia)
I’ve seen Virginia twice this season and Aboushi looks like a NFL tackle. Baltimore needs to bolster that offensive line.
#30 Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (DT, Baylor)
He’s no Phil Taylor, but every time I’ve watched Baylor this year he’s been the one defensive player who looks to have some pro-potential.
#31 Micheal Floyd (WR, Notre Dame)
Production machine but issues off the field will prevent him going much earlier than this.
#32 Mark Barron (S, Alabama)
He’s having a good year but his stock is limited due to the position he plays. This would be a nice get for the Packers.

Austin Davis game tape vs Houston

December 5, 2011 /

As I mentioned yesterday, this isn’t what you’d call ‘picking apart’ an offense. It was far from a perfect performance, and I’ve seen Davis perform a lot better. However, the conditions were very windy and Southern Miss were big underdogs on the road against #6 Houston. Davis had four touchdowns on the day and helped his team to a big victory. If you look at the plays at 2:53, 3:49 and 6:18 you’ll see why I think there’s something to work with here. For more of a breakdown, see my article from yesterday.

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