Author: Rob Staton (Page 404 of 423)

ESPN reports that Cam Newton will conduct a full work out at the combine. The quarterbacks will run through drills on Sunday.

Tony Softi at ESPN 101 St. Louis is dragging up the Ryan Mallett ‘drug’ speculation again. It’s a tiresome story now because everyone was already aware of these rumours. Now it’s up to the teams to do their homework and get on with deciding how true they are or how much of a concern it is.

Gil Brandt believes Newton will be the first overall pick. I agree. In fact, I’m beginning to believe it’ll be a near certainty.

Mike Mayock doesn’t think Robert Quinn will suffer a draft day fall, as I reviewed in my latest mock draft.

Bucky brooks says the combine will be crucial for this year’s quarterback class.

Todd McShay and Mel Kiper preview the combine in their latest ‘First Draft’ podcast.

Mel and Todd also run through their ‘final analysis’ in the draft lab. We’re still waiting a logical reason as to why they’d be discussing the draft in a laboratory.

It’s the week in which the scouting combine technically begins, although the all important work outs won’t begin until Saturday. This means a lot of talk about who can improve or weaken their stock over the next week or so. People want to know who’s going to run a super-fast forty yard dash and be the talk of the week. People want to know who will master the drills and bench the most. Who will perform well during interviews?

I enjoy the combine because it creates fresh talking points at a time when you can only read so many three paragraph scouting reports. You watch the tape during the season, we diagnose it in detail during the lull up until the combine and then we try and work out what’s going to happen.

Even so, I don’t think that much changes at the combine with only a few exceptions.

The prospects you expect to run fast inevitably do. The guys who run faster than anticipated get a good write up but then we go back and watch the tape and you realise why you graded them poorly in the first place. Even the prospects who under perform can rely on good tape to bail them out. There’s a cycle to the process and something of a predictability to it also.

In 2009 Chris Johnson (a R1-2 prospect) ran an official 4.24 forty yard dash and tied the second best time ever recorded. He went 24th overall, which wasn’t a dramatic rise given his achievement. During the same year, Andre Smith made a complete mess of his combine – originally saying he would be present but then pulling a n0-show. He ran a decidedly awful (shirtless) forty yard dash at his pro-day. Despite a mountain of criticism not only about his off season conditioning, but also serious questions about his ability to even play tackle in the NFL, he was still drafted 6th overall.

Two prospects with very different combine experiences who actually didn’t adjust their stock all that much.

I decided to look back at last year’s event and see who was reported to have helped or hindered their stock.

Bruce Campbell, an offensive lineman from Maryland, was universally considered to have enjoyed a productive combine. Tony Paulne at SI.com wrote:

“As we alluded to in last week’s Top 50 list, Campbell was expected to turn in a great workout — and he didn’t disappoint. The 314-pound Campbell posted two solid 40 times around 4.7 seconds; he also looked terrific during offensive line drills. On Friday, he completed 34 repetitions of 225 pounds on the bench press. Though not a staggering number, it’s impressive when factoring in his arm length of 36¼ inches — the longest of any offensive lineman. Campbell has solidified himself in the top half of Round 1.”

Buckie Brooks at NFL.com agreed Campbell was the start of the show:

“The freakish athlete dazzled scouts with his spectacular performance in drills. At 6-foot-6, 314 pounds, Campbell clocked an astonishing 4.78 40-yard dash time and recorded eye-popping numbers in the rest of the agility drills. Although scouts have routinely come away disappointed after grading his film, Campbell’s stunning performance will entice an evaluator to gamble on his immense athletic potential.”

Many people expected Oakland, with their reputation, to select Campbell in the top-ten. The tape painted a very different portrait of Campbell – he looked uneasy with poor technique and didn’t play like a dominating athletic freak. The Raiders did draft Campbell, but almost one hundred places lower than everyone expected. He was taken in round four with the 106th overall pick.

We hear a lot about how interviews can influence a prospects stock and that is largely true. I think it could define Ryan Mallett’s 2011 NFL draft and could play an integral part in many other prospects’ hopes of being high first round picks. However, as with Smith previously there were a lot of concerns raised about Rutgers offensive tackle Anthony Davis last year.

This was a guy that generally looked good on tape but had some pretty serious work ethic concerns, having failed to control his weight and many questioned his dedication to the game. He didn’t have a great combine workout and didn’t interview well either as Pauline at SI.com wrote:

“Davis looked sluggish, poorly conditioned and worst of all, very ordinary at the combine. He completed just 21 reps on the bench press and could not break 5.4 in the 40. Davis looked very stale on the field, almost as if he hasn’t been working out recently. In our Top 50 list, we mentioned scouts would grill Davis about his passion for football. He did nothing to quell the criticism or answer questions in Indianapolis.”

To some degree he was the opposite of Bruce Campbell. In Davis’ case the tape shone through and he was drafted 11th overall by San Francisco.

Another example of combine hysteria was the case of Joe Haden, who ran a very poor time in the 4.6 range. That was considered a stock killer for a cornerback who played much faster on tape for Florida. He was still taken 7th overall by Cleveland and enjoyed a very productive rookie season.

Closer to home many were surprised and subsequently impressed by Golden Tate’s work outs, including an eye catching 4.42 dash. It didn’t translate to draft stock as he nearly slipped into round three. Taylor Mays ran an incredible forty time considering his running style was unorthodox, but he couldn’t repair criticisms about his tape during the season and Senior Bowl.

This should be an event for running backs to really impress with their speed and movement, but that wasn’t the case last year. Pauline listed Anthony Dixon, Jonathan Dwyer, Joe Starks and Joe McKnight among his draft risers last year following work outs (yet didn’t list C.J. Spiller, an eventual top ten pick). The first three runners in that quartet were drafted in round six – with all three suffering somewhat of a surprise drop. Joe McKnight was once considered a borderline R1-2 prospect but fell into round four.

But perhaps the biggest note from last year was everyone’s inability to pre-empt the major fall for USC defensive end Everson Griffen. He sunk like a stone on draft day despite being a consensus first round prospect. Like many others he was listed as a ‘riser’ by Pauline who noted:

“Griffenwas one of the most athletic defenders on the field all day. He measured 6-foot-3½, 273 pounds then completed 32 reps on the bench press. Stop-watches in the stadium clocked him in the 4.65 range both times he ran the 40. During the position drills, Griffenlooked incredibly smooth and explosive.”

Clearly off the field issues played a part in his drop to round four, but these were not picked up on during the combine by the national media.

So while it’s generally a very entertaining watch and does create a lot of interesting talking points, I suspect a lot of big decisions that are made we’ll never learn about until the draft actually takes place. At the same time a lot of those decisions will be based on tape and not what a guy does in shorts and a t-shirt in an unnatural environment.

It’s often considered a negative for quarterbacks to not throw at the combine (and very few top prospects do now) but I think it’s completely understandable and it never seems to hamper their stock. They won’t be throwing without pressure to guys they’ve never met either in training camp or on the field, so why should they in Indianapolis? What can scouts actually learn from those work outs that they can’t discover on tape?

How many times will a prospect need to side-step a static sand bag or run in a straight line without pads? How many times will they have to catch several different footballs, all the while dropping rapidly dropping each one in preparation to catch the next?

Unmissable entertainment, but really entertainment is all it is.

The combine schedule

Each positional group is broken down and begin their combine on different days, going through four different stages. The event begins on Wednesday 23rd February, when Groups 1-3 arrive. Groups 4-6 arrive on Thursday, Groups 7-9 on Friday and Groups 10-11 on Saturday.

Day One  includes arrival, registration, X-rays, pre-exam, orientation and interviews.

On Day Two the measurements take place along with further exams, pysch tests and interviews. This is also when prospects will begin speaking to the media.

Day Three involves a NFLPA meeting, even more interviews and for the kickers, punters and special teams prospects – they will hold their work out.

For the rest the work outs begin on day four with positional drills and all the usual stuff before departure.

Group 1 (K, P, ST, OL), Group 2 (OL) and Group 3 (TE) – begin their four day trial on Wednesday 23rd February.

Group 4 (QB, WR), Group 5 (QB, WR), Group 6 (RB) – begin on Thursday 24th February.

Group 7 (DL), Group 8 (DL), Group 9 (LB) – begin on Friday 25th February.

Group 10 (DB), Group 11 (DB) – begin on Saturday 27th February.

What it all means is you can see the offensive lineman and tight ends work out and go through drills on Saturday. We’ll see the quarterbacks, running backs and receivers work out on Sunday. The defensive lineman and linebackers get to work on Monday and the defensive backs finish things off on Tuesday.

The Rams' shot at Sam Bradford coincided with becoming the NFL's worst team

Every single year we hear it. “This isn’t a good year for quarterbacks.”

It’s usually paired with the assumption that next year’s class will be better. I haven’t followed a draft where I haven’t seen or heard this opinion somewhere.

Last year’s class of quarterbacks was perceived as a poor one because the depth wasn’t good after the top talent – Sam Bradford – left the board. In 2011 it’s a supposed weak group because there’s plenty of depth, just not a bona fide #1 pick like the one selected by St. Louis.

I understand why the ‘weak class’ argument is made annually because whether you’re a fan or a pundit, everyone appreciates the importance of the position. Ideally you not only want someone who can win you football games, he also has to have good technique and all the off the field intangibles. He will be the face and identity of the franchise. People want their QB’s to be more like Peyton Manning than Ben Roethlisberger, even though the latter has two Super Bowl rings.

It’s easy to get behind drafting a Sam Bradford type quarterback. He says all the right things during interview – the answers are pretty dull, but that’s ok. He’s a student of the game who you just know spends hours watching tape while the rest of his teammates are winding down. He’s in the facility almost as long as the coaches, if not longer.

On the field he’s a pure talent with everything you look for – accuracy, a capable if not elite arm and he makes good decisions. It’s easy to assume that at some stage in his career he’ll win a Super Bowl for St. Louis, or that they will at least contend for one.

The problem is, prospects like that are always destined to go first overall unless the team making the pick already has a legitimate starting quarterback.

If he’s the one defining quarterback prospect in the draft does it make it a weak class? Not for the team picking first overall. The team’s who may need a quarterback in the 2-32 range however have cause for complaint. In that sense 2011 is a better year for those teams because there are four potential first round prospects – Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker.

None are as highly rated as Bradford, but certainly all have reason to be drafted in the first 32 selections.

Seattle finds itself in a unique position because they are a team that would be picking much higher but for a history making 7-9 playoff appearance. In reality you will never find a Sam Bradford type quarterback with the #25 pick. Last year Tim Tebow was taken with the very same selection by the Denver Broncos. He was far from a flawless player and clearly the Broncos (or at least Josh McDaniels) bought into the ‘Tebow factor’ and hoped his driven determination to improve would solve some of his technical problems.

That’s the type of gamble that presents itself when picking a QB late in round one.

The fact there isn’t a Sam Bradford type quarterback this year is irrelevant to the Seahawks because they don’t pick high enough to wonder whether they’ll have a chance to draft them. On the other hand, the depth at the position offers at least the option to solve the team’s biggest long term question mark even if they ultimately decide to pass.

Many will consider the prospect of drafting a guy like Ryan Mallett as unfavorable. He doesn’t come across even half as well as Sam Bradford does and the negative euphoria surrounding him these last few weeks may leave permanent damage to his stock.

No doubt people will say, “wait till next year.” I’m not a fan of that line of thinking.

Clearly the team should not feel forced to draft ‘any’ long term option at quarterback. The Seahawks aren’t going to plough in carelessly ready to make a colossal gaffe on a player they aren’t fully convinced with. Neither will they be entertaining thoughts of next year in their decision whatever it may be.

The Seahawks’ intentions must be to select in the 20’s or 30’s every year. If they do so, it will mean the team has qualified for the post season year after year. In order to achieve that they will have to address the long term future at quarterback – a situation of great urgency now that Matt Hasselbeck is a free agent-in-waiting and will turn 36 in September.

We can look ahead to next year and acknowledge the possibility of both Andrew Luck (Stanford) and Matt Barkley (USC) declaring. We can also anticipate that both will be top 5-10 picks with Luck almost certainly the #1 choice.

Seattle would have to be a 0-3 win team to have a shot at Luck and maybe also Barkley. Considering they play in the weak NFC West I’m not entirely sure that’s even possible. It was quite some achievement for St. Louis to be bad enough in this division to select first overall – something the Seahawks should strive to avoid even if the prize is a shot at Luck.

You end up coming back to a guy like Mallett, because that’s the type of player we’ll be discussing if Seattle succesfully maintains their place atop the NFC West rankings. He doesn’t have all the intangibles you look for, but he’s still clearly a talented quarterback.

Mallett’s football IQ is among the best I’ve scouted but it’s not often discussed simply because – to put it bluntly – he doesn’t come across in such a positive way with his body language and during interviews. Christian Ponder is established as a very bright and intelligent individual off the field and I’ve lost count how many times I’ve heard people credit Ponder’s game intelligence because of this fact. It’s a mistake because his decision making is often terrible and he’s much more erratic than Ryan Mallett.

For me the bigger gamble would be to draft Ponder any higher than round five and expect him to work out as a starter than it would be to take Mallett in round one and work on the ‘intangibles’.

While ever the Seahawks enjoy success (and even at 7-9, winning the division has to be classified as such) they will almost certainly have to ‘take a chance’ on a quarterback one day. That will be the case whether it’s Charlie Whitehurst, a round one pick, a mid/late rounder, a free agent or trade. They will not find a flawless diamond a la Bradford, Luck etc without experiencing one of the worst seasons in franchise history.

The argument of ‘waiting till next year’ can only be classified as an admittance that the team cannot hope to achieve the status of picking in the 20’s again. The same problems will exist next year, only Hasselbeck will be a year older and it’s not obvious we’ll see the same level of depth at the position.

Taking a chance on someone might be inevitable. So why wait?

Quarterbacks

Running backs

Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive/Defensive lineman

Cornerbacks / Linebackers

Could UNC's Robert Quinn drop to the Seahawks in round one?

The updated mock draft is now available and can be accessed by clicking here or selecting ‘Mock Draft’ from the title bar. 

I expect many people’s reaction will be to question whether it’s realistic Robert Quinn would drop that far. My response is simple – probably not, but neither is it impossible. 

We’ve seen prospects sink before and certainly it will happen again. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility he will drop on April 28th. 

Quinn missed the entire 2010 season after receiving $5,600 in agent-related benefits. The Sporting News also reported that Quinn was part of an academic investigation at UNC. Of course he wasn’t the only player involved and it could be argued that the sheer number of prospects listed in both cases raises more questions of the Tar Heels regime’ than necessarily the individuals. 

Even so, he has to convince scouts a lack of football for two years (and maybe longer if we witness a lockout) will not have an adverse effect on his talents. 

During his senior year at high school, Quinn was diagnosed with a brain tumour. Initially fears were that it could end his career. Thankfully, Quinn made a full recovery and missed no time in college because of the problem. However, the benign tumour may raise some concerns with pro-teams preparing to make a high-end investment early in round one.   

He’s listed in the 6-4/6-5 region and is down to weigh anywhere between 255-265lbs. That’s not elite size and may put off a lot of 4-3 teams who would like to use him at right end. His size was sometimes an issue in 2009 in run defense and he has been over powered at times by average (yet bigger) offensive linemen. Although he’s bigger than Von Miller, part of the problem I have with both prospects is the possibility they’ll be targeted and exploited playing against the run. Justin Houston (DE, Georgia), Adrian Clayborn (DE, Iowa) and Aldon Smith (DE, Missouri) are superior in this category. 

If you have to take him out of short yardage packages and if you’re really just using him as a pass rush specialist, again that can hit a guy’s stock. Is he a two-down prospect? He also has precious little experience in coverage and isn’t a really instinctive player which may also count against him when the 3-4 teams are on the clock. 

While nobody can deny that Quinn has an explosive first step and has the necessary speed to consistently provide a threat off the edge, he isn’t a particularly polished prospect. There isn’t really a great repertoire of pass rush moves on tape and like Justin Houston he seems almost unwilling to switch back inside, instead relying too much on that outside speed. His reactions are often a split second behind when the ball is snapped. 

The emergence of other prospects may have an impact. Aldon Smith is capable of playing in most defensive schemes and could be set for a rise after the combine – that is represented in this most recent mock. 

There are some of the arguments for why Quinn could fall, but it would be quite a considerable fall to see him last until #25. The lowest I’ve previously had him in my mock drafts was #18 to San Diego. Should he drop into the late teens there’s every chance the Chargers would take him and even if they didn’t – he’d have to make it past Tampa Bay, Kansas City and New Orleans. 

For all the negatives I’ve listed above we’re still talking about a potentially explosive pass rusher and they don’t tend to last very long. He’s got a great initial burst and has no problem taking a long angle to the quarterback. Quinn finishes well and unlikes Georgia’s Houston, he plays with a relentless streak. 

Despite the off the field concerns linked to his suspension, Quinn is actually a humble and hard working individual who won’t take any attitude into meetings and should complete a full work out at the combine. Dez Bryant’s fall last April was less to do with his absence during the 2009 college season and more to do with his no-show in Indianapolis. 

While Quinn has little experience in coverage, the lateral agility and freedom of movement is absolutely there and he has the prototype size for 3-4 rush linebackers. 

At #25 the Seahawks would absolutely have to consider drafting Quinn if he fell. Although he may not be able to provide an immediate impact as a LEO rusher, he could be slowly incorporated into the rotation while he continues to develop. The end product could be a dominating edge rusher, allowing the team to abandon their reliance on heavy blitz packages to create sacks and pressure. 

Churning out the same mock draft every week is repetitive and really what is the point? The objective for these projections is to create a talking point and to cover all possibilities. A week or two before the draft we can think about really trying to crack the code and make a prediction that might actually hold some validity. Until then it’s all guess work. 

Why not look at the possibility that like the Dez Bryant’s and Michael Oher’s out there, someone may fall to Seattle at #25 that is perhaps unexpected? 

Will Robert Quinn fall to the Seahawks? As I said earlier – it’s unlikely, but not impossible.

Mock Draft Preview

Expect an update tomorrow with some significant changes.

I like to mix things up with the mocks because lets be really honest here, there’s no real definitive way to predict what will happen on April 28th. The people who do their homework will get the majority of first round prospects correct, if not in the right order. Some prospects will fall unexpectedly, there will be at least one big shock and nearly everyone will have one pick to hang their hat on.

In 2009 I studied every high profile mock draft on the internet and couldn’t find anyone else who projected Denver would take Knowshon Moreno with the 12th overall pick. The rest of the mock was pretty awful though, particularly the two prospects I had the Seahawks drafting. It was to my detriment that I failed to sufficiently acknowledge Tim Ruskell’s draft history or the manufactured opening at outside linebacker by trading Julian Peterson. It’s always obvious after the event.

Last year I had the Seahawks correctly taking a safety and an offensive tackle, just in the reverse order. I’m led to believe the team were enamoured with Eric Berry and would’ve drafted him 6th overall if the Chiefs had gone in a different direction. I understand the team had originally hoped to take Berry with the first pick and draft Trent Williams at #14, but the Oklahoma lineman’s stock exploded after the combine and he went from a consensus mid-first round selection to a nailed on top five pick. In the end it worked out with Okung still on the board at #6 and Thomas there later on, but I do believe those were the two preferred positions to be filled in round one.

With the team owning a pick much later in round one this year, they might not have the opportunity to be so specific with the area they want to address with their first choice. Sure, there will be preferences and a board structured to consider all eventualities. But with twenty-four teams scheduled to pick before Seattle there’s a lot of time for plans to change.

Perhaps they will have their focus on one prospect all along and will make the sufficient moves up the board to get that player? Maybe they’ll sit tight and be prepared to take simply the best player remaining, considering the numerous needs the team has?

I suspect that at least one prospect will fall down the board in the first round. Perhaps the Seahawks will capitalise on that? Last year Dez Bryant tumbled down the board having missed most of the 2009 college season through suspension and having failed to perform at the combine. Dallas eventually moved up three spots to select Bryant with the 24th overall pick.

In 2009 there was some talk of Michael Oher falling, but nobody expected such a steep drop towards the later stages of round one. Baltimore traded up three spots to select Oher with the #23 pick. In the same year, Chris Wells was touted by many as a potential top-15 prospect but he sank all the way to Arizona at #31.

The year before that concerns over DeSean Jackson’s attitude meant a legitimate top-15 talent fell all the way to #49.

I suspect the Seahawks will be presented an opportunity like this, whether they stay at #25 or have the chance to try and move up the board like Dallas or Baltimore. In a way Bryant, Oher, Wells and Jackson were all calculated gambles – the cost was limited but there were enough concerns to put most of the league off in round one. Jackson has been an unmitigated success and Oher is now Baltimore’s starting left tackle. Wells has been a big disappointment while Bryant had a successful rookie year, yet there was some talk he has not impressed many of the coaches or front office personnel in Dallas.

My mock tomorrow will consider the potential for a prospect falling down the board for a legitimate reason and becoming an unexpected option for the Seahawks at #25.

Who goes first overall?

The combine is really when we get a good grasp on how the draft is going to pan out. We still don’t know what Carolina will do with the #1 overall pick but I’m beginning to think the Panthers will have to find reasons not to take Cam Newton. When Andrew Luck opted not to declare for the 2011 draft, I immediately pinned Newton as my tip to go first overall. This is the article I wrote on the day.

I appreciate the arguments that suggest Nick Fairley or Da’Quan Bowers will be the choice and really I think they’re the only likely alternatives. Carolina’s big needs aside from quarterback are on the defensive line and Bowers and Fairley could easily be the best two prospects in the draft anyway.

Yet are Fairley or Bowers that much better or at least that much more likely to work out than Cam Newton? I’m not so sure, although the long term benefits of the QB working out are much greater.

Think about the possibilities here for a moment – the Panthers wouldn’t have to start Newton immediately because Jimmy Clausen remains on the roster. Should Clausen work out (something I highly doubt) he will be good trade bait down the line. In the meantime you work on Newton and start him when he’s ready or at least when the team has had it’s fill of Clausen.

When a team needs a quarterback, you have to do everything you can to fill that void. If Carolina find sufficient reasons not to select Newton or indeed Blaine Gabbert – so be it. However, at this stage it’s hard to look past the Auburn playmaker at that #1 pick. Certainly I cannot see him lasting past Buffalo at #3.

Big movers

Two defensive prospects in my next mock will make significant moves up the board. Both jump ten places in fact.

Wednesday draft links

Brandon Adams at 17 Power wonders whether Jonathan Baldwin is set for a big move up the boards.

Mel Kiper updates his mock draft with the Seahawks taking Mike Pouncey at #25. I’m a big fan of Pouncey, but I also think it’s unlikely he will last that far. I still maintain that I can’t see Locker falling out of round one as Kiper suggests here and I certainly don’t expect the Seahawks to pass on him. Just a hunch.

Walter Cherepinsky has updated his mock draft with Seattle getting Jimmy Smith (CB, Colorado) in round one. I still suspect Smith will be long gone by the time the Seahawks make their choice.

Tony Pauline publishes his top-50 big board at SI.com. Pauline is one of the best draft insiders in the business and it’s worth keeping an eye on his ‘Draft Insider’ blog.

This was a piece I wanted to write but had to fight with in a big way. On the plus side, it’s interesting to talk about the prospects who may or may not be in contention for the Seahawks in round one and everyone will have their opinions.

On the other hand, you just never know who is going to fall or what will happen on draft day. We can second guess a ton of different scenarios and never get close to the real thing. If a top prospect falls on the day – of course they will be considered, but it’s tough to project that now.

I’m going to use this as a status check on the #25 pick as we get closer to the combine and look to see how things change after that event. Who are the guys as of today that I think might be in contention to be drafted by Seattle? I’ve named five but feel free to add your own in the comments section. I’ve tried to stick with scheme fits and areas of need and there are no ‘left field’ suggestions.

I would recommend checking my latest published mock to get a feel for who I think is a likely option. I’m not going to include players on this list I don’t think have any chance of making it past #20, let alone to #25.

Brandon Harris (CB, Miami)

I don’t think we ever saw the full extent of his potential at Miami. Harris is very similar in size to Walter Thurmond (drafted in round four last year by the Seahawks) and for me he’s clearly the 4th best corner in this class. Patrick Peterson and Jimmy Smith are way out in front, followed by Prince Amukamara (who I’ve said for some time now I expect to end up at safety for the long haul). Then there’s Harris and Aaron Williams. I could see a situation where either goes a bit earlier than expected and clearly a good combine helps cornerbacks a lot.

At the same time, neither was a great playmaker at Miami or Texas respectively. I think Harris gets a bye there because he just wasn’t tested much at all in 2010. Even so when he was challenged in the bowl game against a determined Michael Floyd, he looked poor. That’s a concern.

 Harris is a physical player and a very good open field tackler. When you watch him on the field you instantly recognise he’s a fluid mover with sufficient closing and recovery speed. The potential is there to be an impact player in the league and he could easily be a top-15 pick. That game against Floyd sticks in the mind though and he could just as easily end up being a fringe first round pick. This is a tough one to call at the moment.

Jonathan Baldwin (WR, Pittsburgh)

The Seahawks invested a lot of time courting Brandon Marshall before his move to Miami. They also spent a fair amount of time pursuing Vincent Jackson (who was today given the franchise tag in San Diego). Despite the emergence of Mike Williams as a starter, I see receiver as a lasting need and the team still lacks a real consistent game changer on offense.

Baldwin has great size at nearly 6-5 and 224lbs yet he’s still a very capable deep threat who makes big plays. He suffered in 2010 like the rest of the Pitt Panthers due to inconsistent quarterback play, but it wouldn’t be unfair to suggest he mailed in a season knowing his future lay in the NFL. The potential with Baldwin is big like his size, but he’ll need to be dedicated to his craft to take the next step to stardom. Reports do say that he’s a hard worker off the field.

There is a real hit or miss tendency when it comes to drafting receivers early – although I never see that as a good enough reason to flat out avoid the position. The Seahawks may be wary considering the slow start Golden Tate has made to his career. If he runs poorly at the combine we might be talking about Baldwin as a possibility at #57. If he runs in the high 4.5 range (or better) then he should be a nailed on first rounder.

Phil Taylor (DT, Baylor)

The future of Brandon Mebane remains unclear, especially with no indication a new CBA will be agreed. If free agency does ever happen this year, the Seahawks may run the risk of losing Mebane. It could even be that the deal he gets from another team is too good for Seattle to match – we simply don’t know what the circumstances could be. Even if he remains a Seahawk – it’s an area of the team to watch on draft day.

When Mebane, Colin Cole and Red Bryant all went down with injuries during 2010, the Seahawks suffered. Getting better depth and perhaps upgrading the defensive line should be listed among the team’s priorities. It’s a deep draft at defensive tackle so this isn’t something that will necessarily need to be addressed in round one. However, the top prospects won’t last long.

Taylor has the size (337lbs) to play nose tackle and the surprising mobility to possibly work out in the Red Bryant 5-technique position. He carries the bulk tremendously well and despite some technique issues concerning leverage, he grades highly as an all round talent. It’s a logical pick for the Seahawks if he’s still on the board at #25.

Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas)

Do I think the Seahawks will draft Mallett? No I don’t. Do I think they should consider it? Absolutely. The reason I’ve added Mallett to this list is simply my desire to express how vital I think it is the team drafts a quarterback they can invest in for the long haul. I suspect Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton and Jake Locker will be long gone by Seattle’s pick, but Mallett may remain on the board.

There’s a lot to like about the Arkansas QB, but I can’t get away from the fact he isn’t the mobile quarterback this team has stated it wants (and indeed it traded for in Charlie Whitehurst) and the ‘all in’ policy of Pete Carroll’s regime doesn’t scream ‘Ryan Mallett’ as it’s poster boy.

But because this team has such a need at quarterback the best one on the board surely has to be considered? The team will undoubtedly meet with Mallett during the combine and test his character and football IQ. He’s much more than a cannon arm and has some really enticing qualities to his game, but drafting a quarterback in round one is such a commitment that they’d have to be absolutely sold on his ability to lead this team.

Muhammed Wilkerson (DE, Temple)

At 6-5 and 305lbs, Wilkerson is a unique prospect. He’s had production at defensive end (ten sacks in 2010) despite topping 300lbs and he’s versatile enough to move inside and play some tackle. The 5-technique position in Seattle is a little different to the norm in that it’s essentially a bigger left end who can offer great run support. Being able to rush the passer is a bonus and something Red Bryant showed unexpected ability to do.

Wilkerson is 30lbs lighter than Bryant but could be just as effective setting the edge against the run, yet he’ll probably offer a greater pass rushing threat. At 305lbs the team may want to try him out in the three-technique position – an area that increases in importance if Brandon Mebane isn’t retained.

As with the Taylor option before hand, depth on the defensive line would be a good option in round considering the depth of talent available. Drafting players who can play multiple positions is also possibly wise for a team that did suffer lots of injuries up front.

No offensive lineman?

At this moment I find it hard to project the Seahawks going in that direction. Mike Pouncey (G/C, Florida) would almost certainly be considered but I don’t see how he makes it past Kansas City at #21 and likely goes before that as his brother did last year. A finesse tackle like Anthony Castonzo appears unlikely and unnecessary on the right side of the line and I maintain that Gabe Carimi is too limited as a pure RT to warrant first round consideration from this team.

Trading up or down?

All teams consider moving up or down every year, so it’s no major revelation to hint at the possibility Seattle will do this in April. The team doesn’t own a third round pick and may wish to re-coup that, but the way they’ve used picks in trades I don’t suspect they will concern themselves too much with collecting multiple mid round choices unless a bumper deal comes along. While the team needs quantity, it also needs quality early on.

I do think there’s a chance we’ll see a bold move up the board if a buyer is forthcoming. San Diego and Philadelphia both traded into the top-15 from inside the 20’s last year – but both team’s had plenty of draft capital at hand. The Seahawks don’t have that luxury, but could find ways to be creative if there’s a prospect they simply have to grab. I wouldn’t rule out a big move for a quarterback.

If anyone falls, who will it be and are they an option?

If I had to name one prospect who might suffer a big fall and be a logical option for Seattle, it’s North Carolina defensive end Robert Quinn. He’s a very talented player, but he didn’t play any football in 2010. Will he be able to perform well at the combine and will he satisfy GM’s and head coaches with answers on why he managed to destroy his final year at UNC? Teams won’t need many excuses to take him of their draft boards, even if the potential is big. Quinn is one of three players (alongside Missouri’s Aldon Smith and Georgia’s Justin Houston) who would fit very well at the LEO position and warrants a first round selection. If he suffers a Dez Bryant type fall in April, he has to be an option for Seattle.

What about Jake Locker?

I think projections that he’ll fall deep into round two or even round three are misguided. Yes – he has accuracy problems that we all know about. He also has a high enough ceiling for someone to fall for his potential. If he gets past Washington and Minnesota I’ll be very surprised. If he lasts until the #25 pick I think the Seahawks will probably draft him. While I personally gave Locker a grade in the round two region, I also believe that with quarterbacks you have to expect they’ll always go a round earlier than that – particularly when talking about natural athletes.

If the Seahawks want Locker bad enough (and I wouldn’t rule that out) I think they’d have to trade up. People might question that logic considering everyone else is down on his stock right now, but speaking even as a relative sceptic – I cannot see him lasting all that long in round one.

Good players not in consideration?

I can’t see the team drafting Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama) as good a player as he is. Part of me suspects that’ll be down to Marshawn Lynch’s arrival, but also because Pete Carroll has moved to install Alex Gibbs’ philosophy in Seattle which has always carried a ‘plug in’ mentality for running backs. Akeem Ayers (LB, UCLA) might be a luxury too far at linebacker considering the capital already invested in Lofa Tatupu and Aaron Curry. Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue) is a relentless pass rusher with a great attitude, but his skill set doesn’t translate well to the LEO. It’s also difficult to place a role for Adrian Clayborn (DE, Iowa) in this scheme.

I’ll review this post after the combine and closer to the draft to see if there was any logic to this thinking.

For the last two year’s I’ve really enjoyed watching Von Miller (DE, Texas A&M). It’s hard not to appreciate a guy who makes plays, impacts games and stands out on film. There aren’t many players in the college ranks that have been more fun to watch during 2009-10.

I still wouldn’t draft him as high as most people are suggesting right now.

My opinion on Miller has been consistent throughout, dating back to January last year when it was debated whether he’d declare for the 2010 draft. While most pundits wax lyrical about his abilities and adopt him as a top 5-10 shoe-in, I have some reservations. This has sometimes come across as a dislike for Miller – but that’s far from the truth.

If I had to list the five players I’ve enjoyed watching the most these past two seasons, Miller would be in there.

I love to see guys who consistently rush the passer with success – creating pressure without the need for heavy blitz packages. You put on Texas A&M tape and see this guy beating his man time and time again with pure speed and despite his size, showing a decent repertoire of moves and mixing it up in a solid defensive scheme.

The results are fantastic – 28 sacks the last two seasons. This despite a four-game sackless stretch last August as he fought to recover from a troublesome ankle injury. When Miller finally hit top form, he exploded into life with his eleven 2010 sacks coming in just nine games.

Perhaps his best performance came against the Texas Longhorns. I’ve added the tape to this article (see below). More on that in a moment.

So if I’m such a big fan of Miller and have enjoyed watching him these past two seasons – why am I down on his stock?

Let’s just look at what he does well – he’s an explosive speed rusher. If he can jump the snap and get a step on the offensive lineman, you’re in trouble. Miller is so quick off the edge he’s occasionally unblock-able. There’s very little mystery to his success at A&M – he’s just incredibly quick with a frame that doesn’t restrict that speed.

However, when a tackle can get his hands on Miller, he tends to struggle. He looks every bit a 235-240lbs prospect and he hasn’t got the upper body strength needed to disengage. He abused a lot of flat footed, average athletes playing tackle in college with speed. Will he have the same success at the next level? Is he going to be able to counter initial contact? Will pro-tackles cope comfortably with that speed by showing him the edge and running him out of a good angle?

People talk about Clay Matthews and perhaps his impact will help Miller, but Matthews is much stronger at the point of attack and is more than willing to mix it up with a big tackle. I’m not sure Miller will ever cope as well.

That is one thing that bothers me, the second is perhaps more vital. If you are hoping to draft the guy and play him up at the line like at A&M, you’re asking for trouble on running downs. Miller will just get exploited time and time again playing up front against the run. He’s lean all over and while he understands leverage better than most, he’s just going to get flushed out. You can’t expect him to set an edge and while prospects like Justin Houston (DE, Georgia) have shown they are capable of handling those duties – Miller will be a liability at the next level.

For those reasons I have long suspected his best fit would be as an outside linebacker. Miller has very good lateral speed and when asked to cover a zone he will have success (although he certainly has limitations in man coverage). That in itself is a reason why I’m not as high as others. You’re talking about a transition to a new position, even if it’s one that should match his skill set. You can find productive 4-3 linebackers comfortably outside of round one most years. It simply isn’t a high value position. For every Brian Cushing there’s a failure – and both Cushing and Aaron Curry have a good 15-20lbs on Miller.

Despite his 17-sack season in 2009, he was only issued a third round grade by the draft committee and this played some part in his decision not to declare last year. I partly agreed with the grade and at least understood it – after all, the 2010 class was particularly deep and competitive. He almost certainly would’ve been a second round pick at worst considering his production and speed.

Another year of sacks and top drawer performances improved his stock and with this being a weaker class in terms of depth – I understand why his stock is on the up. Even so, the same question marks exist from last year. I think he’s a solid pick in the 25-40 region, where you can transition him to linebacker and find creative ways to make him effective on third down as a pass rusher.

If he goes in the top five or ten picks like some people project, you want more than that. You’re expecting consistent pressure on first and second down and you’re looking for him to be the X-factor. I can see Miller achieving a very solid 6-7 sacks in year one on pure blitz packages, but he isn’t going to be an every down dynamo who persistently causes problems off the edge like we saw in college.

Events like the Senior Bowl are tailor-made for guys like Miller. The drills are perfect for him to show off his great change of direction skills, his ball location, anticipation, fluid balance and pure speed and athleticism. The combine will build the hype-factor up even more.

It doesn’t highlight the obstacles he’ll face for a team who wants to draft him early.

Tim Ruskell isn’t the only talent evaluator who values Senior prospects from big programmes with solid production and character. Most NFL teams look at guys like that as solid gold. I appreciate why he’s being talked up at the moment and why he’s suddenly this consensus high pick. Positive reports on Miller will do as much good for his wallet as the negative press will impact Ryan Mallett’s.

I want to see Miller do well at the next level and rest assured even if I do grade him lower than most – I’ll still be excited to see him perform in the NFL. I’m always prepared to be proven wrong by a prospect. I want to be proven wrong because wishing someone to fail just to back up points made on a draft blog is unnecessary.

Even so – I’d offer caution to those fans hoping their team selects him as early as possible. He can be effective at the next level, but he isn’t going to be Clay Matthews, Demarcus Ware or any of the other elite pass rushers currently tearing up the league.

Let’s look at the tape, as always courtesy of the sensational Aaron Aloysius:

Watching the video it’s not hard to see why Texas had a bitterly disappointing 2010 season. The regularity with which Miller is unblocked is unreal. Texas A&M have one decorated star defensive player in his senior year and he’s basically treated like an unknown freshman.

Although it’s possibly Miller’s most striking game of the 2010 season, the Longhorns offensive line lay a big egg during this one. Look at the play at 0:54 where the tackle pulls left and almost collides with the tight end, obstructing his ability to get to Miller who takes full advantage. The play of the tackle at 1:37 is unacceptable, failing to get his hands on Miller at all as he dodges inside with ease. We see at 1:49 and 1:58 what happens when you can get to Miller and he can’t disengage.

Overall the Texas tackles are not remotely athletic enough to cope with Miller. He won’t get an easy ride like this most Sunday’s.

One thing I didn’t mention above is Miller’s ability to dissect traffic. You see this at 1:18, 2:21 and 3:48 where he plots a route through the middle to get pressure on the QB. Justin Houston doesn’t do this enough and it hurts his stock, Miller is adept at cutting inside and not relying purely on an edge rush. He may even be more effective in the NFL changing it up like this – using his fluid balance and hips to swerve through the crowd and execute with a closing burst.

The final play on the tape is an interception – flashing his ability in zone coverage. He should have some success there and that may appeal to both 4-3 and 3-4 teams, but I’m not convinced he’ll have the same success when asked to cover in man or watch a tight end.

Don’t forget to check out the Justin Houston tape/report from yesterday.

Jeff McLane from the Philadelphia Inquirer has a story on Baylor defensive tackle Phil Taylor, noting his departure from Penn State and how he turned his career around with the Bears. Thanks to Matt for drawing my attention to this piece.

Pete Prisco at CBS Sportsline publishes his first mock draft with the Seahawks taking Ryan Mallett: “Did you see the way 35-year-old veteran Matt Hasselbeck played for most of last season? And Charlie Whitehurst doesn’t look to be the answer to that problem.”

Brandon Adams at 17 Power has a good piece on the ‘anti-hype’ surrounding Ryan Mallett: “In other words, a wave of totally confident anti-hype and un-confirmed Hint-ese that has the potential to destroy a college player’s career and re-shape the entire NFL for a decade to come is based on…a ten-word snippet from an article that has nothing to do with Ryan Mallett.”

Tony Pauline at Draft Insider says Cam Newton is getting a lot of attention from NFL scouts: “Last week in San Antonio at least six different teams said they rank Auburn quarterback Cam Newton as the number one prospect in the draft.

Justin Houston had 11 sacks for Georgia in 2010

There aren’t many first round draft prospects that can work in the LEO position, but Justin Houston is one of them.

Robert Quinn (DE, UNC) and Aldon Smith (DE Missouri) are the two other players that would warrant the first round investment, but neither are likely to be around at #25. Houston could and probably will be.

I think by design it’s a position that will always create the opportunity to ‘stat pad’. Chris Clemons and Raheem Brock both had career years in the role and an argument could be made that it isn’t worth a high pick when production is almost manufactured. John Morgan argues soundly the counter to that opinion.

The LEO is most effective when you can create one-vs-one match ups in space to exploit the speed of your pass rusher. The best way to create those opportunities is to have penetration from your interior lineman and at least one guy who can soak up blocks. Personally I think the Seahawks can stand to benefit from landing one great nose tackle in this scheme that can do just that.

At the same time, finding an elite pass rusher can make or break a defense. The Seahawks simply don’t have enough playmakers on either side of the ball and a difference maker rushing the edge can be that. Imagine what the LEO could achieve without an over reliance on blitz packages?

I remain unconvinced Seattle will draft for the position in round one unless a Quinn or Smith falls to them, but it’s worth looking at perhaps the only other guy that warrants consideration. Here’s the tape:

The LEO isn’t just about quicks and a solid speed rush. These guys have stand up against the run too to avoid becoming a liability and this can be an issue considering you’re looking at under sized prospects. Houston played at Georgia listed at 6-3 and 258lbs which is fine for the LEO, but clearly not big for a defensive lineman expected to play three downs.

He’s generally quite strong for his size and the real problem he has in this area is a situation a lot of rookies face – leverage. It’s a common issue for a lot of these young guys enterting the league and Houston is no different. When he stays high he’s easily run out of the play. When he gets the leverage right he’s shown he’s more than capable of setting the edge.

Houston has the kind of edge speed needed for the LEO role – he can take an exaggerated route around an offensive tackle and loop back round to make the play. His foot speed and he doesn’t rely on a sudden burst. It helps him to make plays – as emphasised by his 18 sacks during the last two years in the SEC.

Sometimes he’s a split second late in making a judgement or will take a bad angle – both emphasised here at 1:52 when he makes the correct read (albeit slightly too late) and he’s unable to get the correct position to complete a tackle he should make.

Occasionally he struggles to shed blocks, we see this at 1:42, 2:02, 3:59, 6:53, 8:46 and 11:39. His hand use is poor and I don’t think he has the upper body strength to ever develop against this. It might have to be something you compensate for considering his speed and quick burst.

We also see a tackle can use Houston’s speed against him to run him out of plays when he over extends (4:19).

But the big problem I have with Houston is that he leaves effort on the field. He plays at times like he needs some fire, there isn’t that relentless style you see from other prospects slated to go in round one. Physically there’s talent on show, but he needs to match it with a real burning desire to impact every play.

When he’s driven out of contention initially, he seems to accept it too easily and gives up. Having recently looked at Phil Taylor at 337lbs sprinting from one side of the field to another to make a simple tackle on the running back he wasn’t expected to make, it’s disappointing to see that missing in Houston considering he’s 80lbs lighter.

Houston doesn’t have a great repertoire of pass rush moves either. Really, he just relies on pure edge speed and we don’t see a lot of creativity. As discussed earlier – once a tackle locks into his pads he struggles to break free. He rarely cuts inside and always look to round the edge. His speed is good enough to get away with that in college but can he trouble the top pro-lineman in the same way doing the same thing over and over again?

To a certain degree Houston is half-way to becoming a very interesting prospect. His natural speed and ability as an edge rusher will warrant serious late first round consideration alone. He’s not weak given his smaller frame and he will help set the edge – and he generally doesn’t miss tackles. However, he needs to find a relentless streak and he needs to find more ways to beat his man.

Although I think someone will draft him in the 20-40 range in April, I don’t think that team will be Seattle. He’s a bit more of a project than some of the other defensive lineman in this class and although the results may be good down the line – I’m not sure a LEO project is what this team is looking for. They’ve found some level of production from a low-end trade (Clemons) and a free agent (Brock). Robert Quinn and Aldon Smith are more rounded prospects overall and can start quickly, Houston is pure potential.