Author: Rob Staton (Page 409 of 423)

Andrew Luck’s decision not to declare for the 2011 NFL Draft has left the quarterback class one prospect lighter.

It’s time to take a status check on the market.

I’ll run through each of the four prospects I consider to be in first round contention.

Cam Newton (Auburn)

Status check: Newton will compete for the BCS Championship on Monday when Auburn take on Oregon in Arizona. Expect an announcement shortly after on the quarterback’s intentions to declare. Controversy based around his recruitment by Auburn and an unexpected winning season have eliminated any doubt that Newton will be part of the 2011 draft.

Draft stock: With Andrew Luck out of contention, Newton and Blaine Gabbert will gain greater focus. A lot of attention has been spent looking at Luck and talking about him as the #1 pick and nobody else has really been considered. Both Newton and Gabbert could be the first overall pick this year. Newton’s abilities on the field (rare athleticism given his size, sound throwing motion/arm strength, more capable as a passer than some believe) make him a prime candidate to go first overall.

His stock will be defined by team meetings during the combine and leading up to April’s draft. There are two main concerns in my opinion. Firstly – with everything proving so easy in college football due to his undoubted talent, how is he going to respond when life becomes more difficult in the pro’s? Is he going to be the ‘last out of the building’ type who can dedicate himself to tape? Will he struggle and lose interest and attempt to live off his athletic qualities?

Secondly, a story surfaced in November reporting that Newton was facing expulsion for academic cheating during his time with the Florida Gators. It needs to be distinguished whether this story is in fact true and whether it leads to any concerns about Newton’s ability to diagnose information. He’ll need to master a substantially larger playbook in the NFL than the one he’s used at Florida, Blinn and Auburn. Of course, the story may be true and justified in other ways – lack of academic interest for example (which may have since been rectified). It needs to be checked out though to justify the first overall selection.

It’s impossible to speculate whether any of this will affect Newton’s stock because unlike NFL teams – we have such little access to information and background checks. We won’t be able to meet with Newton regularly leading up to the draft like GM’s and coaches.

Talent wise he’s more than capable of being the first overall pick. If these issues prove enough of a concern to put teams off, you wonder if he will fall on draft day. I believe Newton has greater potential than Vince Young. In 2006, Young reportedly scored just six on the wonderlic but still went third overall. On-field talent can sometimes dwarf off-the-field concerns and that could also be the case for Newton.

Interested teams: With all four of the quarterbacks it’s still too early to accurately project who will be definitely interested. Teams will sign free agents, make trades or consider other needs that suggest they’ll avoid drafting a quarterback in round one. Even so – I would suggest seven of the teams in the top ten picks are very likely to consider the position early in the draft. Carolina (2-14) with the #1 pick have to consider Newton – who is a far superior talent to Jimmy Clausen. If he gets past the #1 pick then Buffalo or Cincinnati may keep him in the first round.

Even in a worst case scenario it’s hard to imagine Newton falling past Tennessee at #8, Minnesota at #12 or Miami at #15. He’s a top-15 lock who could easily go first overall.

 
Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)

Status check: Gabbert confirmed he would declare for the 2011 NFL draft earlier this week. The decision was made after a largely positive outing in the Insight Bowl against Iowa – although his interception return cost Missouri the game.

Draft stock: He lingered in the back of most minds throughout the 2010 college football season. Consensus opinion believed he would return to Missouri for another year, but it became increasingly clear over the last month that Gabbert was seriously considering the NFL. Despite losing the game with his pick-six, the Insight Bowl showed off his talents as a big-bodied, strong-armed quarterback capable of making NFL throws.

There’s a lot to like about his game – specifically how he understands when to take some velocity off the ball and make touch passes. Against Iowa he consistently flashed ability to thread the ball into a tight window with inch-perfect accuracy. NFL scouts will look at the arm, the size, the mobility and see major potential.

You’ll very rarely find a faultless prospect coming out of college – particularly at such a scrutinised position like quarterback. Gabbert is no different. The spread offense at Missouri had a lot of scripted or one-read passes which aren’t a great demand for a young passer as talented as this. Like Newton, he’ll have to learn the complexities of the pro-game to maximise his talent. The investment is in potential here that he could be the complete package. It’s whether he’s prepared to work – as Sam Bradford has done this year – to make the most of his physical talents.

All reports suggest Gabbert is a leader with good character and work ethic. There’s no reason to believe he won’t work on the things he needs to develop.

The other main issue is Gabbert’s occassional reckless decision making. He takes risks and sometimes needs to realise when a play is broken and it’s more important to live for another down. He isn’t the greatest throwing on the run – a similar issue to Ryan Mallett (see below) but these are coachable problems that don’t compare to the positives Gabbert will bring to a team.

With so many clubs needing a quarterback this year, it’s hard to imagine a guy like Gabbert making it out of the top-ten. There’s every chance he could be drafted first overall by Carolina. Right now his stock is firmly placed in the top-ten range and I see very little that can change that between now and April.

Interested teams:I look at the seven teams I’ve identified in the top-ten as likely to consider drafting a quarterback and it’s improbable to think none will take this guy. If he gets past the first wave of teams (Carolina, Buffalo, Cincinnati), there’s no way he’ll get past Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee or Washington. If someone wants Gabbert bad enough they’ll have to trade up – but I can’t see him on the board when the 11th overall pick is called.

Ryan Mallett (Arkansas)

Status check: It was confirmed yesterday that Mallett will enter the 2011 NFL Draft. This was a forgone conclusion after coming close to declaring for the 2010 event. After transferring from Michigan to Arkansas, this was always expected to be the year he went pro.

Draft stock: Mallett made major strides this year – positives that are too often ignored to concentrate on the negatives. He’s improved his completion percentage from 56% to 65% this season. One of the biggest complaints about him was the poor record Arkansas had on the road in 2009 – something that improved in 2010 with key victories over Georgia, Texas A&M, South Carolina and Mississippi State. Overall he’s looked a much more polished prospect who always had incredible physical tools (amazing arm and size).

But aside from the physical qualities the biggest compliment you can give Mallett is his ability to dissect a defense, go through his progressions and open up the offense. He’s not just a big-arm who resorts to a series of long-bombs and some underneath stuff. He’ll go to a third or fourth option when he’s given time and in that sense, he might be more developed than any of the other prospects available in this class.

The problems really start and end with his footwork. This was no more emphasised during the Sugar Bowl – when Ohio State created constant pressure and didn’t allow Mallett to settle into the pocket. Although suggestions Mallett is a ‘statue’ are way off the mark (he’s more than capable of avoiding pressure when he needs to) he struggles to re-set his feet. Against the Buckeye’s he was constantly being asked to step into/out of the pocket and throw downfield. When he can’t re-adjust and needs to get the ball out – he loses the technique and mistakes happen.

Arkansas lost the game against Ohio State because of such an error – throwing straight to a defender when put under pressure. It was a similar story against Alabama earlier in the year – when he threw one pick trying to get the ball out of bounds (technique wobbled, ball thrown poorly) and another where he wasn’t able to plant his back foot and lobbed an awkward looking pass into double coverage.

What you’re left with is a weapon that could be capable of big numbers in the NFL. It’s hard not to think of a Jay Cutler/Ben Roethlisberger type QB when you see Mallett in terms of the potential for extreme quality but also erratic play and mistakes. The fades he threw against OSU were incredible, but he should’ve won the game for Arkansas at the end.

There are lingering concerns about his attitude, character and work ethic – as emphasised by this tweet from the NFP’s Wes Bunting. As with Newton, it’s something teams will have to do their homework on.

Interested teams: Mallett’s stock is the most debatable at this point. The need at quarterback and positives to his game could easily keep him amongst the top-15 picks. Tennessee at #8 have been prepared to ignore character time and time again (despite the recent decision to move on from Vince Young). It’s unlikely – in my opinion – that he would go as high as #5 to Arizona or be a Jim Harbaugh pick at #7, but his stock could fall between the Titans at #8 and Miami at #15. What about Jacksonville at #17? It really all depends on the character issues and if they’re addressed. I could see Mallett in the top-15 and I can see him falling into round two.

Jake Locker (Washington)

Status check: As the only senior in this quartet we already knew Locker would be part of the 2011 NFL Draft. Despite a limited performance statistically, Locker played his part in Washington’s upset victory over Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl.

Draft stock: Locker started the year amongst the top listed prospects for the 2011 draft. Some wondered whether he was a candidate to go first overall or even win the Heisman Trophy. It’s important to remember that the draft committee gave Locker a grade in the round two or three range last year. There was some speculation that he almost reversed his decision to return to Washington at the last minute.

It’s difficult to look at Locker’s 2010 season without some mixed feelings. The Huskies achieved a 6-6 record and made a Bowl game – before upsetting Nebraska in San Diego. For that reason it’s hard to question the decision to return – Locker achieved what he set out to do at the start of the year and his final game for Washington should be remembered fondly.

At the same time, he failed to improve on a 2009 campaign that put him on the national agenda. Scouts maintain concerns about his accuracy and decision making – he failed to become a more polished pocket passer. Disappointing performances against Nebraska (regular season), Stanford and Washington were of particular concern. Big games against USC and Oregon State were largely glossed over in comparison.

A lot of teams won’t regard Locker as a first round pick. I’ve read items that suggest teams don’t even consider him to be Washington’s best senior. That’s how negative some reviews have been – and clearly there are teams in the NFL who won’t be thinking Locker is worth the big investment.

However – there will be some that believe they are capable of turning him into a pro-level quarterback. Mike Shanahan is a fan of Locker’s and Washington own the 10th overall pick. I would be surprised if Seattle’s Pete Carroll didn’t share that enthusiasm. Although Locker’s stock will be defined by the team you’re speaking about – he will have admirers early in round one.

Interested teams: I would be very surprised if Locker lasts beyond the 10th overall pick and Washington. Shanahan will draft a quarterback and he’s a big Locker-fan. The question is for me – would someone take him earlier than that or trade up ahead of Washington? San Francisco are a possibility, what about Arizona and Tennessee? Would Minnesota or maybe even Seattle trade up above Washington? Even though I personally wouldn’t grade Locker that high – I think he will very likely be taken in the top 10-15.

I couldn’t see a scenario where Andrew Luck didn’t declare for the draft.

It was common knowledge that the Stanford quarterback was open to staying in college and completing his degree. As only a two-year starter, he continues to improve with every game.

Even so – I fully expected him to enter the league. When it became obvious that Jim Harbaugh wasn’t going to stick around, you got the feeling it was a foregone conclusion.

The Carolina Panthers even appeared to admit they’d draft Luck with the #1 overall pick.

So it was a surprise that he’s not going to be part of an event in which he’d be the main headline.

Andrew Luck staying at Stanford, won’t declare for the NFL Draft

For the updated mock draft – minus Andrew Luck – click here

A heavyweight quarterback class just became slightly lighter. So what happens now? Let’s start at the top with Carolina and the #1 pick.

You can look at this two ways:

1. Luck’s absence allows the team to concentrate on other areas of the team, possibly defense – or maybe by bringing in a talented offensive playmaker such as A.J. Green.

2. The team were prepared to move on from Jimmy Clausen after just one year to draft a vastly superior prospect at quarterback. If they rate one of the other quarterbacks highly – will that remain an option?

I can easily see the Panthers standing by their investment in Clausen. They took a chance with the 48th overall pick last April when many others passed. It was a difficult environment for the former Notre Dame quarterback – joining a team with a lame duck coach limping slowly to a 2-14 record.

However, Clausen wasn’t completely blameless for a quarterback rating of 58.4 and a touchdown/interception ratio of 3/9. In ten starts he never topped 200 yards passing and only had 61, 47 and 72 yards against Chicago, New Orleans and Pittsburgh.

When two Carolina officials touted the drafting of Luck with the ‘#1 pick on Tuesday – it was mainly due to the Stanford QB’s talents, but also partly due to Clausen’s struggles in 2010.

Almost a year to the day I wrote this report (click here) on the limitations in Clausen’s game. I projected a second-round grade and talked about his lack of physical tools and the high percentage nature of the offense he worked.

A lot of that has proven true so far.

Even so – I did say a second round grade and not ‘undrafted free agent’. When you take a quarterback in round two, there’s a certain degree of faith that needs to be shown – although perhaps starting immediately isn’t the right plan. It wasn’t really until I watched Clausen against the Seahawks recently that I realised that maybe even that second round grade was ambitious and perhaps unjustified.

That’s not the issue now, though. This is the worst team in the NFL with a 2-14 record and the #1 pick.

The Panthers need to ask themselves – “How do we recover?”

They may decide that backing Clausen is the right way to go. Give him a talented receiver such as AJ Green or rebuild the defense with a Da’Quan Bowers or a Nick Fairley.

That would be a mistake in my opinion. Go and draft the prospect that can lift this franchise. Go and get the prospect that can define the future and be the face of the revival. If that means returning to the quarterback position – so be it. Andrew Luck was going to be that man anyway, so look at the alternatives.

For many, Andre Luck was a class above both Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton. I didn’t feel that way. I think all three have amazing potential in different ways. Luck and Newton in particular have that unquestioned ability to define a franchise.

If Luck was good enough to end the Jimmy Clausen project, then so should Cam Newton.

Homework needs to be completed on the Auburn star performer. Questions need to be answered – not least about whether this hugely talented quarterback also has the burning desire to be brilliant. There’s no doubt he finds it easy in college – he’s too good for most opponents. When life is harder in the NFL – will he respond, or lose interest?

That’s for the Panthers to find out over the next few weeks and months. If Newton checks out then he has to be the pick.

Yes – he needs to get over that rookie hurdle of adapting to a much bigger playbook, making complex reads and checking down to a third or fourth option instead of working in a two-read-and-run offense.

That’s not new for college quarterbacks and he can do that. He’s making difficult throws already. Newton’s shown he can look off a target and make an accurate pass into tight coverage. The athleticism is a bonus – but he is capable of adding a different dimension to the position.

I’ve no doubt that Newton has star-potential – the kind of ceiling that Clausen will never have.

It’s unfortunate for him that Carolina have regressed this much to be in position to own the #1 pick – but that’s life. Since Peyton Manning was drafted by Indianapolis in 1998, ten of the thirteen first overall picks have been spent on a quarterback.

Cam Newton can have the kind of impact for the Panthers that a Bowers, Fairley, Green – or a Clausen – simply cannot match.

For that reason, I maintain that Carolina should and possibly will draft a quarterback with the first overall pick – even with Luck out of the picture.

By Glen Peer…

Now that it is official that the Seahawks will draft no higher than pick #21 and with the top 20 picks set in stone – the draft discussion can really heat up. My belief is that the Seahawks greatest need is at QB and believe Seattle should do whatever it takes to get the guy they think best fits their system to lead this team for the next 8+ years. I also believe that if that QB does not present itself this year at our pick, it will not be completely devastating to wait. A great example of that would be the Jets who traded way up to land Mark Sanchez after their roster was established with a great line, and the leagues top defense.

If the future QB comes this year in the draft, outside of Andrew Luck who the Seahawks have zero chance of landing, I’m not sure if there is a QB talented enough to effect the entire offensive unit like Sam Bradford did this year. I wanted to look at what the rosters of recent rookie starters looked like when they started. Continue reading

I’ve updated the mock draft today considering we now have a confirmed order for picks 1-20. You can view the latest projection by clicking here or selecting ‘Mock Draft’ in the title bar.

A few thoughts before I get onto the Seahawks:

– Don’t read too much into Michael Lombardi’s piece on NFL.com which suggests the Panthers aren’t thinking quarterback with the #1 overall pick. Carolina hasn’t even appointed a new Head Coach yet and after watching Andrew Luck in the Orange Bowl, probably just want teams to know they aren’t locked into the top spot if they get an unbelievable offer. Without a move down the board – Luck will be a Panther.

– Some will disagree with my decision to place four quarterbacks in the top-ten and five in the top-15. It would be an incredible turn of events, but there are just so many teams that need quarterbacks this year and the 2011 class is much deeper than most recent drafts. Things could change if teams trade for or sign veteran starters, but until they do it’s hard to see a franchise like Arizona going into next season having not addressed the position.

– The depth at quarterback dries up substantially after round one, which could also force teams to solve their problem early.

– Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska) continues to be over-rated in many mock drafts. I wasn’t entirely comfortable having him as early as #13 to Detroit. However – that’s exactly where Malcolm Jenkins went in 2009, a prospect with similar issues to Amukamara. Both look like they’ll end up playing safety in the long term.

So what about Seattle?

Many people will question the decision to projct Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) to the Seahawks with the 21st overall pick.

Let me make the case for why I think such a move could happen.

While I appreciate the continued problems along the offensive line – there really aren’t any solutions to the guard or right tackle position in the first round. This is an area the Seahawks will have to work hard to improve during free agency and subsequent later rounds.

I’ve argued for some time on this blog that one of the biggest reasons Seattle can’t run the ball anywhere near efficiently is due to a stagnated passing offense. Opposition teams are willing to take gambles against the Seahawks – whether that’s showing an eight-man front or blitzing creatively. There is neither a quarterback or an exciting group of playmakers that can force a defense into more considered coverage.

I think Pete Carroll and John Schneider appreciated that when they arrived in Seattle. Immediately they set up meetings with Brandon Marshall and there was a genuine interest in Vincent Jackson too.

Mike Williams was given another chance at redemption and he’s proven to be a solid possession receiver for the offense this year. However – the team still lacks a level of dynamism on offense even with Williams’ comeback.

People will point to the likes of Golden Tate, Ben Obomanu and Deon Butler. We’ve seen glimpses from Obomanu and Butler, but not consistency. Obomanu is due to be a free agent. 

Tate has had a rough rookie season that isn’t totally unexpected. I’ve always felt the former Notre Dame wideout benefited from a high-percentage scheme in college that relied on his ability in the open-field. The Seahawks have tried to make him a more complete receiver, but it’s just not happening. His lack of game-speed, control, solid route-running and size is being exploited in the NFL.

It’d be unfair to write-off Tate at this early stage in his career, but he has a long way to go to become a starter or an effective weapon.

In my opinion, the Seahawks would benefit from gaining another talented receiver who can play most downs alongside Williams (who has renewed his contract for a further three years).

That receiver may come in free agency – especially if the San Diego Chargers opt against placing the franchise tag on Vincent Jackson. Indeed, the upcoming chaos regarding the CBA and a potential lock-out makes this year’s free agency period a complete mystery at the moment.

Assuming the team does not bring in a receiver, then it has to be considered a need alongside the more obvious first round options – quarterback, defensive line and cornerback.

After watching Brandon Harris (CB, Miami) struggle against the height of Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) in the Sun Bowl, I was less inclined to pair him with Seattle who will look for physical, taller corners going forward. Stephen Paea (DT, Oregon State) was also a consideration as someone who could play the one-technique or even the Red Bryant position.

However, it kept coming back to offense and how poor it’s been accross the board this year. If the Seahawks can’t draft a quarterback, they have to improve the situation elsewhere. Improving the offense has to be the #1 priority for this team. It’s not even close to average.

Justin Blackmon is not an elite physical talent. He isn’t going to run a Chris Johnson type time in the forty-yard dash and he doesn’t have great size at 6-1, 207lbs.

He might be the opposite to Golden Tate however, in that he’s already running very crisp and fluid routes and finding ways to get open.

Like Tate, Blackmon won the Biletnikoff this year. Both put up big production, but Blackmon is doing it with a lot more down-field routes. Although I think Prince Amukamara is over rated, Blackmon put on a clinic against Nebraska and dominated his opponent. He also had strong games against Texas – who have maintained a good secondary – and Oklahoma.

He topped 100-yards in every game he played during 2010 and scored 21 total touchdowns.

Is he a pure #1 receiver? I’m not entirely convinced. His best role may be for a team like Kansas City in support of Dwayne Bowe.

Do I think that will necessarily stop him being an option for the Seahawks? No. He’s proven capable of making the big plays, putting up the big production and getting downfield. I’m projecting a smaller learning curve than a lot of rookies due to his natural route running ability and control.

Ideally you’d find a prospect like Julio Jones (WR, Alabama) sitting in that range, but I wouldn’t rule Blackmon out. However, I think receiver is a position perhaps ignored by most when considering what the Seahawks could do in April and I want to try and keep it in the discussion – which is why I made this projection.

And at the end of the day – you can never have enough good wide receivers. Green Bay have regularly drafted wide outs to pad out their offense – a system which could continue in Seattle now that John Schneider has moved to the North West.

The Seahawks won the NFC West title today with a 16-6 victory over St. Louis. Defeat would have ended the season and meant Seattle would own the 8th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.

Instead, the Saints will visit for the start of the playoffs next Saturday.

What does it mean for the draft?

The top twenty will now look like this (confirmed):

#1 Carolina
#2 Denver
#3 Cincinnati
#4 Buffalo
#5 Arizona
#6 Cleveland
#7 San Francisco
#8 Tennessee
#9 Dallas
#10 Washington
#11 Houston
#12 Minnesota
#13 Detroit
#14 St. Louis
#15 Miami
#16 Jacksonville
#17 New England (from Oakland)
#18 San Diego
#19 New York Giants
#20 Tampa Bay

The St. Louis Rams will pick 14th overall after dropping to 7-9. Victory for the Seahawks leads to at least a 13-pick swing. Should Seattle exit the playoffs before the NFC Championship game, they will have the 21st overall selection. They can pick 29th by winning two playoff games, 31st for reaching the Super Bowl and 32nd for winning it.

It also means the Seahawks will pick 21st in every subsequent round.

I’ll discuss what this means in terms of the draft and how it may affect the Seahawks tomorrow.

What happens if…?

The NFL regular season ends today with the Seahawks playing the Rams for the NFC West title. It’s worth just recapping the draft conotations.

If the Seahawks win against the Rams

– Victory will guarantee Seattle a pick no earlier than 21st overall as a playoff qualifier – despite a 7-9 record.

– The Seahawks will pick 21st even if they win a playoff game. The only way that changes is if they make the NFC Championship. The Seahawks would select 29th should they make it that far and lose, 31st if they reach the Superbowl and lose and 32nd should they be crowned champions.

If the Seahawks lose against the Rams

– They could pick as high as 6th overall depending on results elsewhere. Going into week 17, they owned the 11th overall pick with a 6-9 record.

– The Seahawks have the second weakest strength of schedule amongst teams in the six-win range (Arizona’s is weaker). With the Cardinals and 49ers facing each other, Seattle picks above San Francisco with a 49ers and Rams double.

– Seattle would also jump above Cleveland (Pittsburgh), Detroit (Minnesota), Houston (Jacksonville) and Dallas (Philadelphia) if any are victorious.

As reported earlier in the week, this is an unprecedented situation for any team in the final week of the regular season. The Seahawks have a potential shift of twenty-four picks, potentially picking 6th overall or 32nd.

It’s worth considering where Seattle would be if they were 7-9 in any other division (so basically not making the playoffs). The latest they could pick is 15th overall due to Oakland’s weaker schedule (the Raiders traded their first rounder to New England). The earliest possible slot is 11th overall but would be dependant on victories for Tennessee (Indianapolis), Washington (New York Giants) Oakland (Kansas City) and Minnesota (Detroit).

There’s every chance those four teams are defeated today meaning a Seahawks win over St. Louis would have secured the 15th overall pick in any other division but the NFC West. For those perhaps concerned that a 7-9 playoff spot is fortunate and a draft-hindrance, the six-place swing is not as significant as that between defeat today (potentially 6th overall) and victory (21st overall at best).

The Andrew Luck / John Harbaugh situation

There’s a lot of speculation doing the rounds at the moment about Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) and his decision on whether to declare as a red-shirt sophomore.

Nothing will be revealed until after the Orange Bowl tomorrow, where the Cardinal should prove victorious against Virginia Tech.

The best source for draft insider information has consistently been TFY’s ‘Draft Insider’. It’s a must read for those wanting to know exactly what’s happening behind the scenes. TFY has been speculating that Luck is leaning toward the draft mainly because it appears coach John Harbaugh will leave Stanford shortly after the Orange Bowl. ESPN’s Adam Schefter (A Michigan alumni) believes he’ll take the soon-to-be-vacant position at Michigan– Harbaugh’s alma mater.

It’s also been reported that Carolina and San Francisco have interest in the highly-rated brother of Baltimore head coach Jim Harbaugh. I understand the Panthers have little hope of landing the Stanford coach, but what about the 49ers?

Carolina has already secured the #1 pick in next year’s draft and this would be a fantastic opportunity to secure a good coach (Harbaugh) and almost guarantee Luck declares for the 2011 draft. The two could be paired together for a generation in Carolina – and it’s one of the spots that Luck would thrive.

While many scouts and journalists are sold on Luck as the next great hope of the NFL – I have some reservations. He’s extremely developed for a two-year starter and continues to improve. The accuracy is improving, he’s an excellent technician with brilliant mechanics. He’s often praised for his ability making pre-snap reads and adjustments. I wonder how many of these are scripted and if he’s as developed in that area as some believe.

I also wonder how he’ll adjust under greater pressure. Stanford have an elite college offensive line and running game – meaning Luck has been sacked an incredible ten times in two years. That’s 37 less times than Jake Locker if you want a comparison.

So while I understand why Luck will probably go first overall and has a very good chance to be an excellent pro-quarterback – I also think he should go somewhere that can re-create that Stanford environment.

Carolina has an above average offensive line and a good stable of running backs. They do have one good (albeit ageing) receiver. It’s the perfect place for Luck.

However, it appears that the Panthers will not be able to persuade Harbaugh to move east – with Cleveland defensive coordinator Rob Ryan (brother of NYJ’s Rex) the latest name to be linked.

So what if San Francisco break the bank to get Harbaugh? It’d be close to his current home and I imagine would be of substantial interest to the Stanford coach. Like Carolina there’s a developing offensive line, a good running back and some talented pass-catchers.

But they don’t have the quarterback.

This is mere speculation at this point – but a reader brought this subject up in the comments section this week and it’s worth discussing – could we see an Eli Manning situation?

Would Luck (who would love to stay in California) declare for the draft if Harbaugh went to San Fran and then refuse to sign for Carolina as the #1 choice? Could he force a trade between the Panthers and 49ers? If San Francisco lose today they could draft as high as 5th overall.

In 2004 Manning manufactured a trade between San Diego (drafting first overall) and New York (drafting fourth overall). For flipping picks it cost the Giants a first rounder in 2005 and a third round in 2004. The 49ers aren’t a million miles away from being the best team in the NFC West – a QB like Luck could be the answer and a first and third rounder would be small change to secure the team’s long term future.

Of course this would be dependant on Carolina’s desire to do the deal. San Diego were willing to move down in 2004 largely because they could still take Philip Rivers. Of course, Carolina may believe they can still get a Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert by dropping down.

At this point it’s all supposition. I think Harbaugh will end up at Michigan – unless the 49ers make a particularly tempting offer (and they should do, Harbaugh would be a fine appointment). It’s an interesting little discussion point though especially while Harbaugh and Luck’s futures remain in question.

A final thought on Seattle and the need for a playmaker

The Seahawks have a lot of needs. Clearly something needs to be done at quarterback and I maintain that this is the team’s #1 need by a country mile. Depth is needed all over the roster though, particularly on both lines and the secondary.

However – I think a big problem not often mentioned is a lack of playmakers on offense. Many people like to talk about offensive lines – but really Seattle still doesn’t have anyone who warrants a difficult gameplan on a Sunday afternoon.

I rated DeSean Jackson in 2008 – I had him as a top-15 pick and was surprised he dropped as low as round two. How the Seahawks could use someone with his dynamism, ability to get deep and score cheap points now.

Indeed the 2008 draft was a frustrating one on the whole. Seattle traded down form #25 to #28 to draft Lawrence Jackson – an unspectacular defensive end who has since been traded for a 6th round pick. It would’ve taken only a trade up of two spots to guarantee Rashad Mendenhall or Chris Johnson – two prospects I rated highly at running back. No move needed to be made to get DeSean Jackson.

I also wasn’t a fan of the move to get John Carlson. It’s easy to look back with hind-sight but the pick Seattle traded for the Notre Dame tight end was spent on Ray Rice.

The Seahawks offense has stagnated in recent years – losing the benefit of a tight, precise Mike Holmgren system to basically an unproductive mess with nobody who scares a defense.

The drafting of Golden Tate in round two last year showed a distinctive shift in approach and at least a nod to the need for more productive playmakers. Tate hasn’t had a successful rookie season but it’s too early to give up on a prospect many graded in the late second /early third round anyway.

Seattle must continue to try and add talent at the skill positions. It was good see every move made to try and acquire Brandon Marshall and it certainly appears there was some interest in Vincent Jackson. The trade for Marshawn Lynch is further evidence of the new regime’s plans to turn the corner on offense. They gave a chance to Mike Williams who has become a good possession receiver against all odds.

Yes – the offensive line needs to be further developed. You also can’t fear drafting or adding a talented playmaker due to an over-used cliche of ‘building in the trenches’.

There is one extreme playmaker in the 2011 class who I feel can come into the NFL and have an instant impact. This prospect will have a learning curve and certainly needs to prove to scouts he’s prepared to be the workhorse behind the scenes as well as the talent on it.

The man in question is talented enough in my opinion he can start quickly and win quickly. He will make those around him better and offer an X-Factor to the offense.

He’s someone you can build around going forward – a true franchise player.

That man is Cam Newton and he will be a top-ten pick next April.

Locker spikes the ball in the end zone after a touchdown run in the Holiday Bowl

I’ve updated the mock draft for the final time this year. There’s just four months left until the next NFL draft and we’re starting to get a clearer picture as to how things may shape up.

To see the latest projection click here or select ‘mock draft’ from the title bar.

Remember – the deadline for underclassmen to declare is January 15th.

As the bowl games come to an end we should start to find out which of the high profile draft prospects will turn pro. It should be an interesting fortnight.

I suspect nearly all of the top-underclassmen will declare. While the threat of a lock-out remains a real danger in 2011 – April’s draft is secure as the final event in the current CBA (collective bargaining agreement). Whenever a new CBA is agreed it will almost certainly contain a rookie salary cap, ending the ever increasing fortune earned by the top prospects.

Because the first overall pick can agree a contract at any point leading up to the draft, it’ll make it almost impossible to install a rookie cap to include the 2011 class. At the moment there is only doubt as to whether the big money will remain – by 2012 that doubt will be completely removed with a new CBA. Money talks – and this could be the last chance to earn a big pay-day.

In my latest projection I have five quarterbacks being drafted in the first thirteen picks. This would be clearly be an unprecedented occurrence.

However, it’s also rare to see as many QB’s with such a high grade. Andrew Luck, Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert are all worthy of top-ten consideration. I consider Ryan Mallettvery much a top-15/20 talent with only some concern’s about his personality and work ethic causing some resistance. I would grade Jake Locker in the late first or early second round region – but understand why there’s every possibility he will be drafted amongst the top-15 picks.

At the moment, there are a number of teams where the quarterback position is clearly the biggest need. As we move towards free agency this situation should become clearer. When Washington traded for Donovan McNabb last year, it was considered less likely that they would draft a QB.

If, for example, a team like Arizona were to approach Denver regarding Kyle Orton (a smart move in my opinion) – suddenly they have solved their biggest need. If Arizona don’t find a QB before the draft, you would have to believe they are going to take one.

Right now, it’s hard to look at teams needing a QB and placing them with a different prospect. I’m not totally convinced five quarterbacks go in the top-13 as expressed here – but I certainly wouldn’t rule it out at this early stage.

Holiday Bowl thoughts: Washington vs Nebraska

This was a strange game to watch – basically one team played like their lives depended on a victory (Washington) and the other like there was a beach somewhere with their name on it.

The main focus was on Jake Locker (QB, Washington) to see if he could improve from a disastrous performance when the two teams met earlier this year. Statistically, there wasn’t a major improvement (5/16, 56 yards). Look behind the stats though and you’d realise this was absolutely a much better performance from the Huskies QB in his college football finale.

For starters, he didn’t force anything and he made much better decisions. There were no deep throws down the middle into double coverage or reckless attempts with a desperation to make things happen. Locker was cool, collected and managed the game very well.

When a throw wasn’t on – he lobbed it into the stands. He took what was offered by the defense, including a number of smart plays on the ground (83 yards, one touchdown). He was hampered by more drops (something that has plagued Washington the past two years).

Let’s not get carried away here – he was still methodical and grounded rather than spectacular and dominating. Clearly the Huskies defense and the excellent running of Chris Polk were responsible for a 19-7 upset victory.

But there were positive signs here from Locker. We know that he has superb athletic and physical qualities – he just needs to manage them. Being capable is sometimes better than actually expressing. Against an excellent defense, he controlled his team and showed the kind of ball security scouts want to see.

The teams that don’t rate Locker due to accuracy problems and a lack of development this year will not change their minds based on this performance. Those who are sold on his talents were never going to be put off by a game against a team that had already dismantled Locker’s game once.

I predicted that little would change whatever happened in the Holiday Bowl.

But this was an encouraging display and Locker takes momentum into a possible Senior Bowl appearance, the combine and his pro-day. I would recommend passing on the Senior Bowl where it’s notoriously difficult for quarterback’s to impress. The combine and pro-day work out will secure a high draft pick come April.

Elsewhere, I was again disappointed by Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska).

He came into the year a top ranked prospect – and people are using that to keep him high. It’s lazy, to be quite honest, because this has not been a good year for the senior.

For starters – how many big plays has Amukamara made this year? Absolutely zero. He has no interceptions. Do teams avoid him? Absolutely – for the most part (although Oklahoma State didn’t when Justin Blackmon gave him a schooling). But then don’t teams avoid Patrick Peterson too? He’s found a way to make plays – against better opponents too – collecting four picks and big return yardage.

Amukamara looks a little stiff to me which isn’t completely unexpected as a converted running back. He’s got good size but not elite speed and his reactions remind me a lot of Malcolm Jenkins.

If you remember Jenkins – he too was a top 5/10 lock ahead of the 2009 draft. I had my suspicions due to his size and lack of recovery speed and projected him as a safety. He eventually fell into the teens and was drafted by New Orleans – where he now plays safety.

I’m reminded a lot of Jenkins when I watch Amukamara. Whether he ends up at safety or not remains to be seen – but it’s time people stopped grading him based on a pre-season mark.

Right now I have Patrick Peterson (LSU), Jimmy Smith (Colorado) and Janoris Jenkins (Florida) ahead of Amukamara. Brandon Harris (Miami) is up there too and I suspect will over take Amukamara after work outs.

Indeed Smith is emerging as a big mover up the board. His size and speed combo may be the best available in the draft aside from Peterson. If you’re looking for another top-10 lock at cornerback, take a look at Colorado’s stud CB.

Hope you all have a great New Year’s Eve, enjoy the college football today and have a great start to 2011.

Tonight Washington and Nebraska face off in the Holiday Bowl. I don’t need to remind anyone what happened when the two met earlier this year.

Jake Locker (QB, Washington) will get a chance to improve on a performance where he completed just four passes and was left dazzled by a defense that has made many quarterbacks look average the last two years.

In my opinion – Locker can’t do that much tonight to improve or weaken his stock.

A lot of scouts have made up their mind on Locker already. Some don’t even consider him the best senior prospect on Washington’s roster. Even a brilliant display tonight is unlikely to change those opinions. For some, Locker is just too inaccurate and not the kind of poised pocket passer a lot of pro-teams look for. The time has passed to change minds and one game – albeit against a quality defense – is probably too little too late.

Those scouts wanted to see a continued improvement and development based on the strides Locker made as a fourth year junior under Steve Sarkisian. The improvements never materialised. Yes – Locker faced more pressure than most quarterbacks (he’s been sacked an incredible 47 times the last two seasons). When he was given time, however, he still made basic errors and poor decisions.

At the same time there are some who maintain faith that Locker’s physical and athletic qualities are worth pursuing. The theory being that if he can correct his problems (and that’s a big if) he has the ceiling to become an exceptional NFL quarterback.

I’ve discussed in the past how I believe both Mike Shanahan and Pete Carroll would welcome the opportunity to draft Locker – and both use very similar offensive schemes.

While a lot of teams will grade him in the round 2-4 range on their draft board – a team like Washington or Seattle could keep Locker amongst the top-15 picks (rightly or wrongly). I wouldn’t rule out Arizona or Minnesota either.

The Huskies QB will have his admirers and if they’ve stuck with him this far – they’re unlikely to be put off by another disappointing performance against Nebraska.

So I’m not sure if there’s any definite stock to be gained tonight – but of course a good performance against a quality defense will allow Locker to end his college career with momentum.

The scouting combine and subsequent pro-day are tailor made for guys like Locker – he’ll have the opportunity to show off his dynamic athleticism and throw the ball without any pressure to wide open targets. While a lot of people have dropped Locker out of their mock drafts recently, by the time we get into March I suspect he’ll be firmly back amongst first round projections.

Someone will draft him early.

It should be an interesting game to watch and keep an eye on Jared Crick (DT, Nebraska). He’s received largely negative reviews this year despite a productive season (11 sacks). I see him as someone who could potentially play the 5-technique role for Seattle (or the Red Bryant position as it’s now known). Crick is around 290lbs and 6’5″ – big enough to set the edge while also having the ability to collapse the pocket and get into the backfield.

Expect the announcers to give Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska) the big send up. You’ll probably not notice him much in the game as reputation has seen many QB’s avoid throwing at Amukamara. Personally, I think he’s a little over rated. He’s converted from running back and doesn’t look like a natural corner. Indeed his size and athleticism may lend itself better to the safety position. I don’t see him as a top-ten lock like most people and he could fall.

Alamo Bowl thoughts: Oklahoma State vs Arizona

I’ve just finished watching the tape from last night’s game. Overall it was a ridiculously comfortable victory for the Cowboys.

My lasting impression of the game is just how over rated Nick Foles (QB, Arizona) has become. I’ve seen many high profile pundits ranking him as the #2 QB prospect if he chose to declare for next April’s draft. That’s ridiculous.

Foles is just such a limited prospect with so little upside. He was picked off three times in this game, once for a long touchdown return. All three picks were careless, late throws with zero velocity. He gets nothing on his deep ball and teams will have no late night’s game planning him at the next level. He threw 50 times in this game for an average of 5.6 yards per completion.

He was sacked or hit a number of times because consistently he’s so slow to make a decision. He’s not athletic enough to scramble away from pressure and he showed no desire to step up into the pocket.

When a quarterback comes from such a pass-friendly, high percentage spread offense, you want to see exceptional plays or something out-of-the-ordinary to make a high grade. Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri) did exactly that despite a big error which led to defeat against Iowa in his bowl game. Foles is so limited I wouldn’t give him a grade higher than round four or five.

He will return for the 2011 college season and he’s got a lot of work to do if he’s going to become a legit pro-prospect.

One person who is gaining momentum is Arizona wide out Juron Criner. He’s been given a first round grade by some scouts, although it’s difficult to judge him in Arizona’s offense. With no real deep threat and a lot of high percentage short throws which don’t accommodate YAC ability, Criner was restricted to 9 catches for a mediocre 47 yards here.

He did make one excellent catch for Arizona’s only touchdown – a controlled grab in the left corner of the end zone on a short, high pass from Foles. Crines flashed perfect body control and good hands to make the grab and stay in bounds. His height (6-4) was a real advantage on the play.

However, he isn’t the biggest in the upper body and seems to carry more weight in his legs (listed at 210lbs). He doesn’t look the strongest. This was the second time I’ve concentrated on Criner and he was a greater threat in defeat to Stanford earlier this year. I need to further review tape of that game before I come to a conclusion on his talents.

There was of course one other wide out who stood out – Biletnikoff winner Justin Blackmon. He had a typically productive game – scoring two touchdowns and registering 119 yards from nine grabs.

His first touchdown was due to a coverage mistake, allowing Blackmon to be wide open deep and it was a simple pitch from QB Brandon Weeden to complete the score. I wasn’t too keen on the wide outs decision to run right along the end zone – we don’t need to see that kind of showboating.

The second score was much more impressive – a low, difficult catch in coverage to the near right corner of the end zone. Blackmon showed off strong, effective hands and great body control for an impressive touchdown.

Overall Blackmon is a tough receiver to project. He doesn’t have elite size (6’1″, 207lbs) and he isn’t a track-style speedster. He’s got a thick, muscular frame and he can be competitive – which is to his advantage. He’s an under-rated route runner and appears in complete control of his body. He also has the unteachable knack of getting open. Having said that, he doesn’t have the reliable hands of a Michael Crabtree (who he has been compared to) or the supreme YAC abilities of the 49ers receiver.

He plays in an offense which orchestrates production and that has to be acknowledged. However – you can’t ignore a 1782 yard, 20 touchdown season.

Personally, I think he’s a solid second round value receiver who can act as a complimentary #2. Having said that, teams in the 20’s who need a wide out should consider him. A logical fit could be found in Kansas City playing alongside Dwayne Bowe.