Author: Rob Staton (Page 408 of 423)

Will the Panthers stand by quarterback Jimmy Clausen?

For the last two years there’s been no great mystery over who would be taken first overall in the NFL Draft.

In 2009 the 0-16 Detroit Lions had a new coach and a need for new direction – which clearly meant finding a franchise quarterback. When Sam Bradford made the decision to return to Oklahoma it seemed likely that Georgia’s Matt Stafford would be taken first overall.

Despite some members of the Detroit media and the quite a number of Lions fans suggesting an offensive tackle (Jason Smith) or even a linebacker (Aaron Curry) could be the choice – Stafford was the favorite in January and unsurprisingly the forecast came true on draft day.

For most of the 2009 college football season it seemed like defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh would be the hot tip to go #1. It was a regular projection among mock drafts with little challenge from people like Sam Bradford – who had missed almost the entire season with a shoulder injury.

However as the process continued and we got closer to the combine – Bradford re-gained momentum and with St. Louis as desperate for a quarterback as Detroit the previous year there were no surprises when April came.

The 2011 draft would have followed an even more predictable path had Andrew Luck declared. Instead, there’s no real answer to what the Carolina Panthers will do on April 28th.

It’s reminiscent of the 2008 event when Miami had the #1 pick. For a long time people had Glenn Dorsey (DT) pinned down as the first selection, but concerns about his ability to stay healthy and his fit in the 4-3 scheme (Miami were switching to a 3-4) dropped him out of contention. The Dolphins needed a quarterback so Matt Ryan was a distinct possibility. Darren McFadden’s blistering 40-yard dash at the combine made people wonder if he could go first overall.

By the time we got closer to the event it appeared to come down to Ryan and the two Long’s – Jake and Chris. The Dolphins opted for Jake – an offensive lineman from Michigan. The defensive end (Chris) from Virginia went second overall to St. Louis leaving Atlanta with the quarterback.

Things may be unclear for a while in 2011 too.

I contacted a knowledgeable Panthers fan called Daniel Elliott to get a status check on things at this early stage. With the deadline tomorrow for underclassmen to declare – we’re pretty sure who the candidates should be.

Obviously Carolina spent a 2nd round pick on Jimmy Clausen last year – although he endured a rough first season in the league as the Panthers slumped to a 2-14 record. I asked Daniel if quarterback was still potentially an option:

“I do believe the door should be open at QB.  As much as I loathe Clausen’s play style, I think he has the potential to become a decent back up quarterback to poor starter. I don’t know exactly how the Panthers value him at this time but Marty Hurney (the GM; retained through the coaching change) did invest a 2nd rounder in him, the highest pick the Panthers have spent on a quarterback in over a decade. 

Judging from Ron Rivera’s introductory press conference it sounds like they’re being realistic about the situation – they know he was terrible but they also excuse it a bit because he was playing for a lame duck coach on a gutted roster – which is about as much as I can ask for as a fan.”

My reaction to his comments on Clausen is that the plan will be to bring in some sort of veteran competition, with the likely outcome being that the competition will win out while Clausen returns to the bench temporarily with his long term future in the organization to be determined at a later date.”

This seems logical. I’ve previously continued to mock a quarterback (either Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton) to the Panthers with the #1 pick. I didn’t grade Clausen highly last year and have little confidence in is ability to become a long term starter in the NFL. However as Daniel points out – the GM that drafted him has maintained his position despite the disastrous drop in 2010.

“Their scouting department is apparently big on film and on-field production in college over tools and combine performances so I don’t know if they’re as high on Gabbert (or Locker) as some other teams would be. I don’t see Cam Newton as a possibility at all.  His merits as a possible NFL QB aside, the Panthers have avoided players with anything resembling character questions ever since the Rae Carruth and Fred Lane debacles. 

To give you a better idea of what they’re looking for, in the entirety of John Fox’s tenure the Panthers were linked with just 1 top tier QB prospect in a trade up strategy or “if he fell” scenario – Matt Ryan. Now, is it possible Gabbert becomes that guy for them?  I would say yes, but it’s very a remote chance. I think they wanted a home run, thought they had it with Luck and now that they don’t, they’re not sure what to do.”

So what about the other options then? A lot of people are talking up Nick Fairley after a strong BCS Championship performance that was aided by a suspect Oregon scheme that allowed him to go unblocked on many plays. Da’Quan Bowers enjoyed a strong year for Clemson while A.J. Green is also fancied as a weapon on offense. Here’s Daniel’s take:

“Bowers is an option to play across from Charles Johnson and when added to a stable of Greg Hardy (raw, but flashes of big potential) and Everette Brown (kind of the DE version of Clausen…but still some production) could bring back the dominant End play we had with Peppers and Rucker.  With that said, I live in ACC country near Bowers and he’s not Julius Peppers or Mario Williams. I wouldn’t focus much on the scheme flexibility thing. My interpretation of Rivera’s PC is that we’re very much sticking with the 4-3 but will throw in a couple of 3 down lineman looks when the time calls for it. Not that it changes much since I think Bowers projects best as a 4-3 end.

Despite this, I do think the favorite for now is Nick Fairley, hype or not. There was a report about a month ago that we had him targeted at the top of the draft before the Luck train really started rolling and the media started speculating he’d declare.”

Riding a NC hype train into the draft can work sometimes, as Vince Young can attest.  How psyched I am about this being a possibility? Well, I think it’s safe to say nothing is going to excite me as much as thinking we’re getting a possible franchise QB.  However, the only position on the team as weak as QB is DT.  Honestly, the team could release everyone from that spot tomorrow and I wouldn’t bat an eyelash (the only guy who I think has any worth is Derek Landri, and that’s solely in a back-up/rotation role).”

I’m aware of Fairley’s flaws as a player – you’re probably getting a 1-gap guy, tires easily, possible leverage issues, amongst other things but on the other hand, the number of guys with the ability to bring pressure up the middle and make game changing plays from that spot is not very high.  I think he’s going to be in the running all the way up until draft day unless the aforementioned character conscious front office are scared off by interviews with him or something that comes up in a background check.”

The AJ Green option is actually quite popular amongst the fanbase.  He’s a local product (Summerville, SC) and this is the organization that traded the #33 pick for Armanti Edwards.”

The uncertainty over what Carolina’s plans may be with the #1 pick pretty much defines how the 2011 draft may be reviewed as we move forward. A new CBA appears to be no closer, meaning when the Panthers officially are on the clock there may not have been a free agency period and therefore no trades.

With this inability for teams to fill needs before the draft – it may make the event even more unpredictable than ever before.

While we can try to project what Carolina will do with the #1 pick – as with most of the draft and the possibility of a lockout – it’s a complete mystery.

Andrew Perloff at SI.com published a top-24 projection which excludes the playoff teams. He has Blaine Gabbert going first overall to Carolina – something that shouldn’t be ruled out. Perloff: “Quarterbacks have gone No. 1 overall eight out of the past 10 years. CAA, which represents Gabbert, has represented seven of the past eight overall No. 1 picks. Despite playing in a spread offense at Missouri, Gabbert is the top-rated quarterback and is the kind of player Carolina could sell to its fans.”

Walter Cherepinsky has a four round mock draft available at WalterFootball.com. Brandon Harris is Seattle’s choice in round one, followed by Rodney Hudson with the 57th pick. Both are solid projections.

Chad Reuter and Rob Rang have updated mocks on CBS Sportsline. Reuter throws a new name into the ring for Seattle – Corey Liuget a defensive tackle from Illinois. Reuter: “His Texas Bowl performance should convince scouts to bring his strength and quickness on board early in the draft.”

Larry McDaniel Jr at Pro Prospects has the Seahawks taking an old Pete Carroll favorite – Tyron Smith (OT, USC). In my opinion, Smith is undoubtedly the best offensive lineman available in this class and due to the premium nature of the position should secure a place in the top-15 picks – possibly even the top ten. I’m not convinced Seattle will draft a right tackle this early (and Jimmy Smith is available here – you know what I think of him) – but it’s another name to discuss nonetheless.

NE Patriots Draft is a team related draft blog I frequently visit for reference. It’s a great site worth checking out and there’s some very interesting picks here. The Seahawks take Cameron Heyward (DE, Ohio State) at #25. I’m not convinced he’s a great scheme fit because he’d have to play the 5-technique role used by Red Bryant. He gives up considerable size to RB but also hasn’t proven to be a consistent pass rush threat during the last two years to compensate.

SideLion Report is another team draft site worth visiting. The Seahawks take Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue) – someone I wouldn’t rule out if the team is prepared to draft a LEO rusher in the first round.

I’ll be updating my own mock draft after the deadline passes for underclassmen to declare on Saturday with some substantial changes so stay tuned for that.

If you want to watch game tape on some of the top prospects available in the 2011 NFL Draft, I’d strongly recommend adding Aaron Aloysius’ YouTube page to your favorites list.

Aaron writes for the equally recommended Draft Breakdown website. He’s compiled footage of a number of prospects in individual games – and he doesn’t edit out the bad bits either.

I’ve added Aaron’s tape of Jimmy Smith vs Oklahoma below. The Sooners offense is a production machine through the air so it’s an interesting match-up. Personally, I think Smith is a top-10 talent coming out of Colorado. In the footage you can see his ability to stick with the receiver in man but also flash an incredible closing burst when in zone. He’s a sure tackler – but needs to improve shedding blocks.

There’s one particularly telling play where he jams star receiver Ryan Broyles at the POA forcing an in-completion.

There aren’t many prospects I rate higher than Smith. I don’t like to make outrageous comparisons to NFL stars but he’s certainly got a similar skill set and size/speed combo to Nnamdi Asomugha. I don’t say that lightly but certainly I think the potential is there for Smith to become one of the top NFL cornerbacks.

I suspect he will run a very quick forty yard dash at the combine which could propel his stock way up the board. Just an exciting player to watch and one that I think could be set for big things.

Tonight Oregon take on Auburn in the BCS Championship. The two sides are very different – Oregon as a system and man-for-man team are by far the best in the country. Auburn by contrast have one superstar player who happens to be unstoppable.

It’d be unfair to place all of the Tigers’ success on Cam Newton – clearly Nick Fairley has been stunning this year for the defense. However, Newton represents his team’s only chance tonight – and it was no different against LSU or Alabama.

I’ll be watching (and tweeting) so feel free to join in the discussion. I’ll have a post on the blog covering the game tomorrow.

Following confirmation that Janoris Jenkins (CB, Florida) and Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) won’t be declaring, I’ve decided to update the mock draft to represent prospects who are likely to be available once the deadline passes on January 15th.

I’ll come onto the mock in a moment, but first a quick thought on the why prospects like the two named above may have chosen to stay in school.

The draft advisory board are notoriously conservative with their gradings. We all know Jake Locker got a grade in round 2-3 last year, although I have a hard time believing he would’ve got past Washington with the #4 pick overall (whether that would’ve been deserved or not is another question).

This year the likes of J.J. Watt, Jenkins and Blackmon have also received similar grades. All three – in my opinion – were first round certainties. I’m not sure if it needs to be re-affirmed to these prospects that the gradings are given with the intention of leaving room for improvement. If everyone got given their exact grade – it could technically send out the wrong signal. For example – let’s say you’re a first round pick before any workouts. It only sets a prospect up for potential disappointment and maybe even lethargy.

Jenkins in particular announced he was going to be leaving Florida to declare for the draft but appears to have made a U-turn after getting his grade and speaking to Florida’s new coaching staff.

I’m not entirely sure what Jenkins has to gain by going back to Gainesville. Alshon Jeffery, A.J. Green and Julio Jones all had their worst games statistically against Jenkins. Teams will throw on the tape and be wowed by those three performances. He may have struggled to tackle Terrance Toliver – but watch him cover the elite potential of Green and the obvious quality/size combo of Jeffery and Jones.

The one knock on Jenkins was a lack of elite size in comparison to Patrick Peterson and Jimmy Smith. That won’t change in 12 months.

Perhaps he’ll benefit from a 2012 draft that won’t be as deep at cornerback, or maybe he’ll struggle to match his 2010 season and drop down the board? Either way – I think the draft advisory grades could do with being defined a little better. The draft has lost two real talents in Jenkins and Blackmon – in a year when Seattle could use as much depth as possible now they won’t be selecting until the latter part of the first two rounds.

To see the latest projection click here or select ‘Mock Draft’ in the title bar.

The mock only has a few tweaks to ammend for the prospects that now we won’t be available and the updated draft order. It means some prospects that previously received second round grades have sneaked into round one. I wanted to wait and see Aldon Smith at the combine before putting him at #20, but with the depth weaknening I think he’s almost certain to be a first round choice health permitting.

Picking for Seattle was tough this time, with a lot of potential picks off the board. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seahawks made moves up or down the board next April.

It was difficult to pass on Mark Ingram but I don’t believe this regime will draft a running back in round one. It’d be a big investment so soon after trading for Marshawn Lynch and you’d struggle to justify it behind a line that hasn’t blocked well for the run.

Baldwin has been soft at times this year and his effort has been far too inconsistent. At the same time – he’s got a unique blend of elite size and genuine ability to get deep and make big plays. Did he lose interest in what has been a farcical year for Pittsburgh? Will turning pro re-focus his undoubted talents? Questions that need to be answered, but he might be BPA after Ingram.

I will post a list of underclassmen who have chosen to declare over the next couple of days. The deadline falls on January 15th.

Two big name prospects appear to be leaning towards staying in college. There’s a lot of speculation coming out of Oklahoma State that receiver Justin Blackmon won’t turn pro. Today Florida cornerback Janoris Jenkins wrote a tweet which suggested he won’t be declaring.

Both prospects I would rank third at their position. Blackmon has natural fluidity at wide out, great control and playmaking qualities. I’d grade only A.J. Green and Julio Jones above him. Jenkins is my third ranked corner behind Patrick Peterson and Jimmy Smith. Top receivers Green, Jones and Alshon Jeffery had their worst games statistically against Jenkins. He’s proven reliable against coverage despite a lack of true size – but he struggled with open-field tackling particularly against Terrance Toliver (WR, LSU).

The receiver position will be further hit if Juron Criner (WR, Arizona) opts to join Nick Foles in staying with the Wildcats.

A couple of people have asked about Nnamdi Asomugha comments section and via email. It was announced today that he’ll become a free agent after his contract with Oakland was voided due to incentives that were not matched.

I mention this because it raises an interesting point. The prospect of Asomugha being available is enticing not just for the Seahawks, but every other NFL franchise. He’s undoubtedly one of the most talented players in the league at any position – a true shutdown corner. 

However, unless a new collective bargaining agreement can be signed nobody will have the chance to sign him this year.

No trades or signings can be made until the new CBA is agreed. Everyone hopes that it will happen very soon – mostly to avoid a lockout and no football next season. With regard to Asomugha, I wonder if the Raiders structured the deal as such understanding that football was possibly going to be unlikely in 2011?

The draft is slightly different in that it’s secure as part of the existing CBA and will take place under any circumstance. Let’s consider a not-unlikely scenario where free agency does not occur and the draft is set to take place.

I just wonder how teams would approach it? If there’s no prospect of football in 2011 and if you’ve not been able to add any players during free agency – it changes things surely?

The Seahawks will have a pick in the #25-32 range in rounds one and two. They don’t have a third round pick. So let me put this question to you…

If we get to a point where football is unlikely 2011 – would you be more prepared to trade a substantial amount of your draft to move up from that late first round position? Consider that the team would likely have a free agency period and another draft in 2012 before football eventually returned. Would you treat it like ‘business as usual’ or would you consider the big, bold move to get one prospect knowing that depth isn’t really an issue in a year without any games?

I’m not suggesting the Seahawks or anyone else would actually do this – it’s merely a discussion starter to see what kind of opinions are out there. A one-year football sabbatical will change things in the NFL, we just have no idea how.

I’d be interested in your thoughts on this one. If there’s a top quarterback, cornerback, defensive lineman, receiver – or any other position for that matter – would you be more willing to ‘go get them’ than in a year where you’re planning for a full schedule?

Consider that the eventual free agency period could be doubly strong with 2011 and 2012 free agents available and with potential trades on offer due to teams hoping to make considerable moves ahead of football’s return. Could the 2011 draft be used – in essence – to bank the guy you want at a greater cost and wait out the CBA? Or do you just treat it like any other draft?

I suppose many people will care little for this information after a 41-36 win over the Saints – but this is a draft blog.

I’ve double checked the rules on determining draft order. The Seahawks will now pick no earlier than #25 overall in the draft. That will also be the case in round two.

Although many won’t want to focus on the draft this week – it’ll be interesting to look at how this may change the dynamic of Seattle’s draft next April. Of course if they defeat Atlanta or Chicago – they will pick between 29-32 next April.