Author: Rob Staton (Page 413 of 423)

A bit of good news for me today – I managed to find a schedule list for ESPN India and it shows South Carolina vs Clemson live at 5:30am. An early start – but worth it to watch Da’Quan Bowers and the Clemson defense against Lattimore, Jeffery and Garcia. I’ll have a few thoughts on the blog immediately after. Some other things to look for today:

– LSU vs Arkansas – The Razorbacks are at home and this is the kind of high profile game Ryan Mallett can really boost his stock. He’ll have to dissect a secondary that includes stand-out Patrick Peterson. I’m also interested to see how Drake Nevis performs. He’s had highlight games this year and started very well. However – he’s also been inconsistent. He needs to get at Mallett and pressure early throws.

– Oregon State vs Stanford – Andrew Luck should get another win here and put up the usual numbers. However – can Stephen Paea (DT, Oregon State) impress against the Cardinal offensive line? It’s one of the best in CFB. Paea is one of the best interior defensive lineman against the run but he’s also occasionally flashed ability to get into the backfield (five sacks). He’s never dominated in one single game, but a performance today will register in scouts minds.

– Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State – This is a tale of two wideouts. Ryan Broyles (Oklahoma) and Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State) have both put up huge numbers in ultra productive offensive schemes. For me, I’m not convinced either warrant first round grades. Broyles lacks size or breakaway speed. He’s a potential handy slot receiver but that will only carry so much value. Blackmon looks like Michael Crabtree lite – he hasn’t got flawless hands or the same YAC quality – but he’s a playmaker.

– Florida vs Florida State – 2010 hasn’t been a good year for the Gators. They have a Tim Tebow sized hangover from last year. Christian Ponder has been one of the biggest disappointments for me this year and I would only give him a late round grade. However, this is a chance to impress against a less than stellar Florida outfit that may be missing top corner Janoris Jenkins. Even so, it’s probably too little too late for Ponder.

When Alabama took a 24-0 lead in the second quarter – at home – many thought Auburn’s BCS title hopes were in serious danger.

Then Cam Newton did what he’s been doing all year.

A four-score performance led the Tigers to a 28-27 victory which puts Auburn in place to make the title game and win Newton the Heisman trophy.

As expected, streaming games in India is impossible. ESPN3 doesn’t allow purchases from this part of the world – so whilst I’ll be watching Seattle vs KC on NFL gamepass, I cannot do the same for CFB. I will watch the tape when it’s published on the SEC website in a few days.

My review of a game littered with potential draft picks will have to wait – but I’d welcome any thoughts you have on the game in the comments section.

However – wins like this will only continue to pump Newton’s stock higher up the board. He’s leading a pretty average team to a remarkable season on his own. The teams who are struggling in the NFL right now will look at the tape and the way he’s handled adversity this year and consider the impact he can have for them.

I had Newton going third overall in my last mock draft. That’s a distinct possibility.

It’s a big night for two athletic quarterbacks. One is a high profile, sure fire first round pick next April. The other has posted very similar stats, leads his team equally well but hasn’t received the same level of hype.

Cam Newton (QB, Auburn) and Colin Kaepernick (Nevada) are both big time playmakers who feature heavily as runners as well as passers. Tonight Newton faces rival Alabama hoping to maintain Auburn’s unbeaten season and go into the SEC Championship game knowing victory will certainly secure a BCS title game.

Kaepernick is hoping to knock Boise State off their perch with a big upset win. I haven’t had the opportunity to watch Nevada this year, but this is the type of high profile encounter he has to perform in to boost his draft stock.

I’m still in Asia and won’t be back until 6th December. I’m hoping to catch the ‘Bama vs Auburn game via a live stream. The internet in the hotel is patchy at best so this might be slightly optimistic. However, I have both games set to record so when I get home I’ll be able to review both quarterbacks performances.

This week I had the Seahawks taking Colorado cornerback Jimmy Smith in my updated first round mock draft. Courtesy of Aaron Aloysius, here’s Smith in action against Missouri and Blaine Gabbert:

I’ve updated the mock draft today as planned. You can find the latest projection by clicking here or selecting ‘Mock Draft’ in the title bar.

As I’m on Honeymoon I’ll keep the analysis brief. Jake Locker isn’t included amongst the first round this week after another disappointing performance against UCLA. He has games and the Senior Bowl/Combine to repair his stock, but he’s just not accurate enough or progressing enough to warrant a high grade.

I like to look at different scenarios every week rather than churn out the same 32 picks jumbled around a bit. People will ask why I have the Seahawks passing on Locker at #21 when I’ve talked so much about the need to draft a QB. Earlier this year GM John Schneider listed the things he believes are key when drafting a quarterback. Locker fits the criteria for leadership, pocket mobility and hand size. It cannot be said however, that his accuracy outplays the physical qualities. It’s the exact opposite.

No doubt Locker will be back in first round contention before April – but I think it’s important to look at alternatives for Seattle and the draft in general.

I have the Seahawks selecting Jimmy Smith (CB, Colordao) this week. He has the size and physical skills the team want at cornerback. He’s flown under the radar a bit due to a lack of national spotlight at Colorado. He’s very good in press coverage but he’s got the closing burst to succeed in zone. He’s aggressive on the field but a quiet, thoughtful character who doesn’t come with any character problems.

You can never have enough good corner’s. Kelly Jennings is a free agent and Smith could project as a long term feature at CB. Stephen Paea (DT, Oregon State) was also a strong consideration and would be more likely if Brandon Mebane wasn’t re-signed – although I suspect that’s a near certainty.

Unfortunately the Arkansas vs Mississippi State game will have to wait until I return from Honeymoon. Apologies for the lack of details on Mallett, Sherrod and co – I’ll take a look when I get back. I’ll be travelling for the next two days so the next update on the blog will be the updated mock draft on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Let me start with a heads up for the next couple of weeks. I’m off on honeymoon tomorrow and will be in Asia for just over two weeks. I’ll continue to update the blog when possible, hopefully by a pool side. Obviously this will limit my opportunity to watch as much CFB although I will be recording games to watch when I get back. I will be continuing the mock drafts as usual.

It does mean over the next few days there won’t be many updates as I’ll be doing a lot of travelling, things should settle down by the end of the week.

This weekend I will be watching Arkansas vs Mississippi State. I’ll try and get some reaction on the blog tomorrow before I set off.

Here’s some key notes from the weekend:

-Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson) may be behind Andrew Luck by position importance only. Two more sacks today against Wake Forest have taken him to 16 for the year in just eleven games. I cannot envisage a scenario where gets out of the top five picks and is very much a contender to go first overall depending on who owns the choice.

-Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) had a comfortable day –  going 16/21 for 235 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He added 78 yards on the ground including a 58-yard dash in one specific play.

-Ryan Williams (RB, Virginia Tech) has endured a frustrating year dogged by injuries. He still seems set to declare for the 2011 draft – and showed why he might provide someone with a bargain. His 14 carry, 142 yard performance against Miami was very impressive – it included two touchdowns.

-Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) doesn’t know how to have a bad game statistically. He added another 130 yards today and a touchdown in a comfortable win over Kentucky. He’s not as explosive as Dez Bryant or as sure-handed as Michael Crabtree, but he’ll interest teams with his playmaking qualities and production. If he declares for the 2011 draft, I’d give him a round two grade at this point.

Andrew Luck (Staford)

Current projection: 1st overall likely, a certain top-five pick

He’s pulled away as the top quarterback prospect and looks destined to be the #1 pick next April. Only the likelihood of a lockout in 2011 will stop him declaring as a redshirt sophomore. He’s eliminated some of the erratic throws he made at the start of the year and developed into the focal point of a dominating offense. He’s benefited from the best offensive line/running game combo in college football (only nine sacks in two seasons), but he’s also flashed incredible poise, mobility and mechanics. Sometimes throws off balance and still learning due to inexperience – but his development at 21-years of age is unique. If he lands in Carolina, he’ll lift that team in year one.

Cam Newton (Auburn)

Current projection: Top 10

People are starting to grade Newton with 2010 in mind, but he’s been a top-ten pick in my mock drafts for a few weeks already. His lack of experience and two-read system at Auburn offer some concern – as do a laundry list of other issues that will need to be answered at the combine and in team meetings. However – his form in the face of adversity has been nothing short of spectacular. He’s a better passer than most give him credit for – with some footwork improvements necessary but a nice release, arm strength and decent accuracy. He has made some NFL caliber throws this year. Running ability speaks for itself – he’s not Michael Vick, but he’ll make plays with his legs and tough to bring down.

Ryan Mallett (Arkansas)

Current projection: Top 20 if he can ease character concerns, but might fall if teams put off by personality and work ethic

There’s no doubt in my mind that Mallett deserves a lot more credit for major improvements made this year. He’s a more rounded, accurate passer in 2010 and that shows with improved numbers. He’s completed 63% of his passes this year, compared to 56% in 2009. He’s answered the critics both statistically and with big wins on the road (vs Georgia & South Carolina). Improved accuracy adds to supreme arm strength and ability to read the field, diagnosing plays quickly. On the field, the sky’s the limit for his stock. Character concerns are prevalent though and need to be answered. Locker’s disappointing year could keep him in round one with many teams needing a quarterback.

Jake Locker (Washington)

Current projection: Falling – can’t place him in round one at the moment

This year hasn’t gone according to plan for Locker. He’ll rescue back some of that disappointment if Washington win their last two games and become bowl eligible. His draft stock has collapsed though and he’s sinking down the board. Accuracy is a major concern, as is decision making and the regularity with which he throws blind. Upside through character and athleticism may repair some of the damage at the Senior Bowl and combine, but a completely unconvincing year with no improvements on 2009 is of most concern. He started the year as a contender to go first overall – he’s struggling to stay in round one now.

Locker completed just 47% of his passes vs UCLA

I wrote earlier that this was a big game for Jake Locker. His stock has plummeted after a disappointing season – mixed with poor performance and injury.

He should be able to repair some of that lost momentum at the Senior Bowl and the scouting combine. Until then – this was the first of three remaining PAC 10 games with Washington needing to win the lot to be bowl eligible.

This is the third time I have watched Locker in full this year (Nebraska, Stanford & UCLA). I watched part of Washington’s win over Oregon State.

I gave Locker the benefit of the doubt against Nebraska and Stanford. The game against Stanford in particular was especially difficult. This game against UCLA was a much greater opportunity to impress.

Locker did not impress.

He finished with 10/21 passing for just 68 yards and a pick. He added nine yards and a touchdown on the ground.

I appreciate that he was playing with sore ribs and this may have impacted his performance. I could also argue – why were they calling designed QB runs if he was that bad? It’s not like running back Chris Polk wasn’t having a fine game.

It started badly and never really recovered.  With 5:05 left in the first quarter, Locker took a play action and received modest pressure from his left hand side. He moved away to provide a better angle for a right arm throw – and panicked into a shot down the middle which should’ve been picked off. It showed a lack of poise (pressure forcing mistake) bad decision making (low percentage throw, unlikely to complete) and a lack of touch (darted into defensive back, needed more air). The fact the pick was dropped afforded only momentary respite.

Two plays later on third down, Locker dodges pressure and is in two minds whether to try and run for the first down or throw a pass down the left sideline. He goes pass – and just throws it off target behind the wide receiver for an interception. Locker needed to lead his receiver more and it was just an inaccurate throw.

Throughout the first half Locker acted on scripted plays without reading the field. Too often he’d take the snap, roll out and throw blind and could easily have thrown a couple more picks.

Overall the lack of development for a fifth year senior is alarming. Yes – this is only year two in a pro-style system. However, we’re not seeing enough to justify a first round grade at this point. Mistakes against Nebraska and Stanford could be forgiven given the circumstance. There’s no excuses tonight other than the injury and Locker admitted afterwards he had no issues with his ribs.

The accuracy issue is the biggest concern for me – you can accept occasional mistakes because they can be limited down the road. It’s the number of high passes, off target throws, bad decisions. Luck, Newton and Mallett are all well ahead of Locker when it comes to accuracy.

He’s not progressing through his reads quickly enough off the snap and he’s locking onto receivers. Locker has the arm to fit the ball into tight windows – he’s capable of making plays other QB’s can’t. However – whilst he struggles with reads and stares down targets, it’ll render any benefit of the physical qualities null and void.

The upside (athleticism, occasional big plays, tremendous character) will never drown his issues making quick reads and accuracte throws.

Locker was essentially a non-factor against UCLA – Washington finding a way to win without him. Isn’t that strange, given how one of the often used excuses when Locker struggles is his poor supporting cast?

You can only give a quarterback the benefit of the doubt for so long and I’m beginning to seriously question whether a team can justify that first round selection on Jake Locker.

The Interception:

Tonight I’ll be watching UCLA vs Washington. Jake Locker returns after sitting out the Oregon game and with his draft stock in the balance.

The emergence of Cam Newton and the continued form of Ryan Mallett is in stark contrast to the year Locker’s had. Washington need to win out to be bowl eligible, his numbers are down across the board and it’s been a struggle.

Impressive wins over USC and Oregon State have been usurped by struggling displays against Nebraska and Stanford. The doubters are growing.

In Mel Kiper’s weekly online mailbag, he was asked whether Locker could one day become a franchise quarterback. The response?

It would be a real stretch to call him a franchise QB right now, based on the way he’s played. He hasn’t played well. He’s struggling with accuracy. He’s struggling with game management. He should have been playing better. 4-20 earlier in the year against Nebraska. If you’re going to be franchise QB, you have to have a great year. That’s not to say that he won’t become one. He has all of the physical skills. If a QB coach can mold him, then yeah. He was the No. 1 player going into the year. He looked like a franchise QB going into the year, but right now, he doesn’t.

As Mel says – he came into the year the #1 ranked prospect. In his latest big board Locker is only placed at #1 – below Newton, Mallett and Andrew Luck.

The main issues for Locker are his lack of development this year and continued problems with accuracy. It was hoped another year in a pro-style system would further show off his star qualities. Instead, we’ve seen a few flashes of brilliance but far too many bad decisions and errors.

Rightfully some point to a below-par supporting cast. He had no chance agains Stanford – being pressured almost immediately as the offensive line buckled time and time again. Locker has been sacked 15 times this year and 43 times in total during 2009 and 2010. As a comparison, Andrew Luck has been sacked just nine times during the same period.

That clearly has some influence on his ability to impress scouts and coaches. It’s not a total excuse though for bad accuracy and decision making when he is given time – no better emphasised than a stunning throw into double coverage early in the Nebraska ‘massacre’ which resulted in a tone-setting interception (see video below, it’s the first play).

Tonight Locker will come up against the wildly inconsistent UCLA. This is the game Washington’s quarterback needs to impress. Akeem Ayers and Rahim Moore offer playmaking qualities amongst the Bruins defense, but it is a defense that can be picked apart. I’m looking to see if Locker can maintain poise in the pocket, limit his mistakes and make a few big plays.

The Senior Bowl workouts (Locker should attend) and the combine will offer Locker the opportunity to repair any damage caused during the 2010 season. In fact, nobody stands to enhance their stock more during those two events than the 22-year old Senior.

However – finishing the year strongly, starting tonight, will begin the repair job early.