Author: Rob Staton (Page 414 of 423)

I’ve updated the prospect tracker with all this weekend’s stats. I wanted to have a look at the defense this week and see how the top prospects are performing.

Three potential first round picks have reached double digit sacks already.

Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson) collected his 14th of the season in a narrow defeat to Florida State – and added his first career interception too. Bowers has had a breakthrough year combining excellent size (6’4″ 280lbs) with freakish agility. Although Andrew Luck has almost certainly guaranteed his place as next April #1 overall pick – I don’t have another prospect ranked higher than Clemson’s star defensive end.

Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue) plays with a high motor, relentless style. He’s got an adequate if not elite burst off the edge but he does a good job winning one-on-one battles against offensive lineman, driving them into the backfield for consistent pressure. He absolutely destroyed Michigan on Saturday collecting four sacks – taking him to 12 for the year (matching his 2009 production). He was given a third-round grade by the draft committee last year but two-years of solid production has pushed him into late first round consideration.

Justin Houston (OLB, Georgia) is a lighter, quicker prospect (6’3″, 258lbs) who could be a potential LEO rusher. He flew under the radar earlier in the year but his eleven sacks in 2010 leads the SEC. When you combine it with seven more sacks in his sophomore year and two as a freshman – that’s a solid college career against tough opponents.

All three will fit into different roles. Bowers could be used in either 4-3 or 3-4 schemes. His size and overall power would be welcome as a power end in a 4-3 or five technique in a 3-4. His pass rushing ability, agility and speed equally makes him an interesting fit in space.

Kerrigan equally has some value in both schemes. Some see him as a pure 4-3 fit rushing off the edge as a RE. Certainly his relentless stlye would be a logical fit there. His size (6’4″, 265lbs) however would be better suited to an OLB prospect in the 4-3. Teams will have to weigh that up, consider if he’s able to add size or not. He reminds me a little bit of Brandon Graham last year – who went 13th overall to Philadelphia (a 4-3 team). At 6’1″ and 268lbs Graham was under sized, but convinced many he could fit in any scheme. His stock was sufficiently boosted with a superb Senior Bowl appearances. Kerrigan will get a similar opportunity.

Houston does line up in a front four for Georgia and shows good initial burst and an ability to beat his man around the edge. He doesn’t have a great repertoire and he relies on quicks for success, but he has a knack of getting to the QB. Teams who use a 3-4 scheme will want to test his coverage skills and we’ll see if he takes some linebacker drills at the combine should he declare. He’d be a very good fit in Seattle’s LEO position – he’s almost identical in size to Chris Clemons (four pounds heavier and the same height).

Production across the board is impressive, particularly from interior defensive lineman. Drake Nevis (6), Nick Fairley (9), Stephen Paea (5), Jurrell Casey (4) and Jared Crick (7) have been amongst the sacks. The five technique position has grown in importance withregard the draft – Allen Bailey (7) and Cameron Jordan (6) could both surge up draft boards in the same way Tyson Jackson did. Marcell Dareus (three sacks) could also receive looks at that position.

Von Miller (DE, Texas A&M) started the year slowly as he battled injury. It took him five games to record a sack this year, after collecting 17 last year. The chart shows his recent return to form (and health) with six sacks in his last six games since then. I’m still concerned about his size (6’3″, 238lbs) and a switch to linebacker may be likely.

I posed the question yesterday – what happens if the Seahawks don’t draft a quarterback?

I’ve long argued that it’s the team’s greatest need. I’ve also looked at scenarios where the Seahawks take a QB whether they win the NFC West or not.

My objective with mock drafts is never to attempt to accurately predict what’s going to happen in six months time. Instead I prefer to examine different scenarios and create a discussion. In this weekly update I have the Seahawks picking 21st overall (the position they will likely hold if they win the NFC West and do not reach the NFC conference game). The four top quarterbacks – Luck, Newton, Locker and Mallett – are all off the board before Seattle are on the clock.

If the team had a firm belief in either Locker or Mallett – in this projection they’d only need to trade up a handful of spots to get their man. That is an option – however – I never include trades in my mocks.

Taking that into account I had a look at the alternative options available.

TO VIEW THE UPDATED PROJECTION CLICK HERE OR SELECT ‘MOCK DRAFT’ IN THE TITLE BAR

As a big fan of Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama) it was a tempting option. The Seahawks still lack playmakers and I believe Ingram has star-potential. The trade for Marshawn Lynch negates the likelihood of this move. Seattle’s run game could use the boost Ingram provides – but a stagnant pass offense (Sunday excluded) and poor blocking is more to blame than a lack of quality at running back.

Cornerback is a position that can always be improved and added to. Jimmy Smith (CB, Colorado) is physical and owns the size Seattle wants at the position. He’s also under rated and could go higher than I have projected here. It was extremely tempting to place Smith with Seattle – with Utah’s Brandon Burton a secondary consideration.

Not, however, as tempting as it was to hand the Seahawks some needed depth to the defensive line. With Brandon Mebane an impending free agent, the roster may look thread bare come April. Stephen Paea (DT, Oregon State) and Drake Nevis (DT, LSU) both fit scheme and would be worthy options. LEO consideration could go to Georgia’s eleven-sack pass rusher Justin Houston. J.J. Watt (DE, Wisconsin) is a solid five technique candidate.

The Seahawks could also look here at Adrian Clayborn and Ryan Kerrigan – to prospects who have fallen considerably in the last 2-3 weeks.

Despite all of these options, I went elsewhere. The pick in this week’s mock draft?

Mike Pouncey (OG/C, Florida).

I’m not one for over rating interior line prospects. Their value is comparatively slim compared to the more premium positions – OT, DE, DT, QB etc. I’ll admit in the past to cringing at mocks from yester-year that placed Seattle with an offensive guard when much greater long term needs remained. If anything – those needs are even bigger today.

Even so – I will attempt to justify my decision making here.

For starters – this is not necessarily the direction I would go in. Let me stress that right off the bat. This team has been forced into a turnstile mentality on the offensive line all year and have invested a serious determination into not only improving the O-line, but also the running game.

The run blocking so far has been abysmal.

I have sympathy for what can only be described as a patched up line with players who are unfamiliar, returning from injury, acclimatising to new environments and learning new schemes. Even so – there may be further changes in the off season. Sean Locklear and Chris Spencer are free agents. We have no idea whether Max Unger is considered a long term staple when he returns from injury. Can Chester Pitts and Stacy Andrews become part of the furniture alongside Russell Okung?

You may know Pouncey’s twin brother Maurkice? He was taken 18th overall in last year’s draft. He’s also been a revelation on a banged up and notoriously disappointing Pittsburgh offensive line.

The other Pouncey stayed in school whilst his brother headed for the NFL. Things started badly – his move from guard to center took some getting used to. His main issue was something so basic – snapping the ball.

Since then he’s worked hard to address that, developed into the heart and soul of his team and his performances have been striking. He looks like a clone, rather than a twin. He’s equally adept at pass protection as he is versus the run.

At 313lbs he’s not over sized for this team (especially since Andrews became a regular feature). His brother plays at 304lbs for Pittsburgh, so he could lose weight to suit more zone blocking tendencies. The Seahawks would have the option of playing him alongside Okung at left guard or as a center should Spencer depart.

It’s a big investment, especially if it was to be made ahead of choosing to trade up for a shot at the QB’s. Even so – if this team is serious about improving the run and the offensive line – I wouldn’t rule it out. He could be BPA and picking 21st might limit the Seahawks options. Of course we wouldn’t be looking at this position if Seattle don’t win the NFC West and pick much earlier. If they do select in the 20’s, it goes to show how things might change in terms of who we project as the team’s first round pick.

If the season ended today, Carolina would own the #1 overall pick with Buffalo selecting second. Here’s how the top ten would shape up:

1. Carolina
2. Buffalo
3. Detroit
4. Dallas
5. Cincinnati
6. San Francisco
7. Minnesota
8. Arizona
9. Denver
10. Cleveland

The Seahawks of course would be picking no earlier than 21st overall, because they’d be NFC West Champions. I still firmly believe the division is a lottery and that there’s a distinct possibility three teams could be in contention in week 17. I wouldn’t want to try a predict anything right now, even though the Seahawks have a one-game lead over the Rams.

It could be a bizarre situation, with the division winners picking late in the first round next April and the other three teams selecting amongst the top 10-15 picks. The margin of difference could be as little as head-to-head record.

In my updated mock draft tomorrow, I’m going to review a situation I’ve yet to cover – what happens if all the quarterbacks go before Seattle is on the board? Looking at the current top ten order, it wouldn’t be unrealistic to see three or even four QB’s taken. Andrew Luck would be an absolute shoe-in to go first overall to Carolina. Buffalo, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Minnesota and Arizona are all logical QB takers. A case could even be made for a team like Dallas – stranger things have happened.

Previously I’ve had Luck, Jake Locker and Cam Newton going in round one. Ryan Mallett is a first round pick based on his on-field talent. Could they all leave the board before #21?

I’ve long argued the importance of Seattle drafting a QB early. The longer they wait to draft a quarterback, the bigger the issue becomes. Whether the Seahawks win their division this year or not – this is still a re-build. Any re-build – in my opinion – has to start with the quarterback. Look at St. Louis’ improvement simply by drafting Sam Bradford. Tampa Bay have rebounded this year – in large part because of Josh Freeman. Atlanta and Baltimore were 4-12 and 5-11 before drafting Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco.

Atlanta turned a bad situation into a positive by drafting Ryan and putting the LT, RB and TE around him. They already had a #1 receiver. That for me will be the road to extended success – getting your QB and putting the pieces around him.

There is the possibility that a quarterback (or more than one) could fall. We’ve seen it before – Aaron Rodgers being a key example. Projecting the stock of Jake Locker, Cam Newton and Ryan Mallett is particularly difficult right now. Nevertheless if the Seahawks did pick later in round one there won’t be any guarantees any will remain available.

Of course there’s always the opportunity to trade up. If a QB is there you simply must have, then that has to be a serious consideration. In 2009, the New York Jets moved up 12 places to draft Mark Sanchez. Obviously that was a considerable jump. However, it’s not unusual to see teams make minor moves up the board to ‘guarantee’ the quarterbacks they want.

In the same 2009 draft, Tampa Bay moved up just two places to get Josh Freeman. In 2008 – having moved from #8 down to #26 – Baltimore moved back up to #18 to draft Joe Flacco. Last April Denver moved back into round one to get Tim Tebow. It’s not unusual to see teams make these kind of moves. I don’t include trades in my mock drafts, but that has to be considered – particularly when I don’t place a QB with the Seahawks as I will tomorrow.

So what are the alternatives if they won’t or can’t move up?

It’s a good year for cornerbacks – would a player like Colorado’s Jimmy Smith fit the bill? Will Cameron Jordan be available to add some depth on the defensive line – not to mention another Golden Bear on the roster? What about a wild card on the offensive line? I’ll publish my updated mock draft tomorrow.

Jenkins has shut down three of CFB's best

Cornerback’s are sometimes difficult to judge in college football. Take Prince Amukamara for example – ranked as the top senior going into the 2010 season. He’s barely been tested all year as opposition coaches scheme away from the highly rated corner. When he was challenged – by Oklahoma State’s Justin Blackmon – he struggled a little bit. Rusty or warning signs? He has no picks this year which emphasises how little he’s been targeted. He had five in 2009. 

Other cornerbacks are easier to judge. Janoris Jenkins didn’t come into the year with Amukamara’s reputation, so he isn’t been avoided. Jenkins has lined up against three NFL calibre receivers: Julio Jones, A.J. Green and Alshon Jeffery. All three may eventually be top-15 picks. 

Julio Jones vs Florida: 4 catches 19 yards 

A.J. Green vs Florida: 4 catches 42 yards 

Alshon Jeffery vs Florida: 6 catches 53 yards 

The numbers listed above are each individuals single-game lowest in 2010. Coincidence that all have been shadowed by Jenkins? Absolutely not. 

I’ve watched all three games. Jenkins systematically took Jones out of the Alabama game. He handled Green – something nobody else has managed in CFB this year. Jeffery had a frustrating night and his most competitive duel this season so far. 

People have spoken openly about Patrick Peterson and Amukamara – but it’s time to discuss the huge talent Jenkins has. In coverage, he might be the best available next year. Great hips, fluid backpedal and flawless balance. Jenkins does a great job tracking the ball and putting himself in position to make a play. He’s got enough speed to stick deep and against Jeffery he showed major improvements with his open field tackling and ability to disengage blocks. 

He’s 5’11” and about 190lbs, which is standard size really. However, that just further flashes his ability when he’s coming up against the three wide who all stand above 6’4″ with considerable weight advantages. He’ll come up against bigger guys at the next level too – guys who might actually not be as talented as Jones, Green and Jeffery. 

He’s also a special teams threat on kick returns – and is more than capable of turning a pick into six points. 

When coaches and scouts sit down and look at his CV – they’ll see the competition Jenkins has come up against and performed brilliantly against. There are a few background checks to make – he was arrested last year, tasered and charged with misdemeanous affray and resisting arrest without violence. This does appear to be an isolated incident though after a fight broke out. 

Based on the tape he’s a top-10 talent in my opinion and potentially the second cornerback off the board next April.

I wrote down some instant reaction to Georgia vs Auburn earlier (click here). There were some other noticeable performances this weekend too:

–Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson) recorded his 14th sack of the year (leads NCAA) and also made his first career interception in a defeat to Florida State. Bowers’ transformation this year has been stunning and he’s a top-ten shoe in next year as far as I’m concerned. He could easily go #1 or #2 overall next year.

–Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) had a difficult day in a close victory at Arizona State. He threw one pick and no touchdowns in a 17-13 win at Arizona State – a second interception was wiped off for a holding penalty. He completed 33/41 passing but this was a slight blip on his recent brilliant form. It’s not unexpected from a RS sophomore.

–Cameron Jordan (DE, California) could be set for a rise in stock. Some see him as a top-ten pick because of his ability to play 5-technique in a 3-4 and feature in many different schemes and calls. He played a vital role in restricting Oregon to 15 points in a two-point defeat – the first defense to really get a grip on the Ducks this year.

–Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) put up the big numbers again (9 catches, 145 yards and one score) but this was a hit and miss game for me. He made a 67-yard TD grab that flashed his ability to locate the ball on a deep route and win the ball in tight coverage. He also had some lazy drops and isn’t always a hands-catcher. He isn’t a great deep threat, but he’s a stout strong player. He beat Aaron Williams on the deep TD.

–Julio Jones (WR, Alabama) only had three catches for 41 yards in a win over Miss. State. He boosted his stats with a 56-yard touchdown run, but it stunts his recent big production. Alabama turned to the run and rushed 13 more times than they threw.

 I’ll be watching South Carolina vs Florida tomorrow, so expect thoughts on that and more notes on this weekend’s action.

Newton impressed again after a tough week of allegations

I’ve just finished watching today’s brilliant game between Georgia and Auburn which ended in a 49-31 victory for the unbeaten Tigers. It was also the perfect platform for two potential top-ten picks to really flash their amazing talent.

Cam Newton and A.J. Green have found a home early in my updated mock drafts. Both were sensational in this game. One prospect didn’t impress me as much for differing reasons – but more on that in a moment.

It was only revealed at the last minute that Newton would be Auburn’s starting quarterback at the last minute. This has been a difficult week for the one-time Heisman shoe-in (he still should be for me). I can only imagine he was emotionally drained coming into another huge game. You wouldn’t have noticed. Continue reading

I’ve four games on the schedule this weekend:

Georgia vs Auburn

Nobody knows whether Cam Newton will feature in this game. Personally, I sincerely hope he does. As someone who conducts a draft blog and as a mere fan of college football, I just want to watch the best players perform. Whilst I appreciate the rules and regulations, Newton isn’t gaining any on-field advantage from allegations that money was sought for his registration.

I know penalties need to be severe to discourage this type of event reoccurring. However – I just wish there was a way of finding out the truth (not allegations) quickly and then arranging for money to be paid back with a subsequent heavy fine. I want to watch Newton, A.J. Green and Justin Houston fighting it out for their team and their draft stock. ESPN and Joe Schad have the latest (see video) but I think it’s a foregone conclusion that Newton will not participate tomorrow.

Penn State vs Ohio State

I regularly see Cameron Heyward in first round mock drafts. I also see him in the top ten picks an awful lot. I think he’s over rated. I can also appreciate why he may still be a high pick. Tyson Jackson went third overall (an obvious reach) in 2009. He had just seven sacks his last two years with LSU and one career interception. Heyward currently has eight sacks in 2009/10 and one career interception. Jackson was 290lbs and 6’5″. Heyward is 288lbs and 6’5″.

It’s another chance to watch Heyward, but I doubt my opinion will change much. I have him as a 2/3 round prospect. Who knows if he’ll go much higher.

Oklahoma State vs Texas

Justin Blackmon is intriguing. He leads the nation in receiving yards (1285) and touchdowns (15) despite recently missing a game for off the field circumstances. He reminds me a little bit of Michael Crabtree – both 6’1″ and around the 210lbs range. Both were ultra productive receivers in pass friendly offenses. The soft hands, YAC ability and body control are there. Neither is an elite deep threat.

Nobody is really talking about Blackmon (a redshirt sophomore) from a draft point of view. I’m not entirely sure what’ll happen with the QB situation at OKSU, but Brandon Weeden is a 27-year-old junior playing in college after his baseball career was cut short due to injury. Does that have any impact on his decision?

I expect the Cowboys to win this comfortably – Texas are a mess. It’s a good game to really test Blackmon though against a decent, if a little over rated secondary that misses Earl Thomas more than they thought. There’s no reason why Blackmon couldn’t be the third WR off the board next April.

South Carolina vs Florida

Speaking of talented receivers, SC have a great one in true sophomore Alshon Jeffery. He’s 230lbs, 6’3″ and likely to be a very high draft pick in 2012. He has 1034 yards and seven scores on the year so far.

Florida cornerback Jenoris Jenkins shone against Julio Jones, virtually shutting him down (which even Patrick Peterson failed to do). Jenkins also performed admirably against A.J. Green. He suffered however when inconsistent Terrance Toliver got the ball in space. His open field tackling is a big issue and takes away some of his great qualities as a cover corner.

Jeffery is another physical beast but is far more effective and a much harder worker than Toliver. Another shut down performance from Jenkins and we could be talking about top-ten range next April. Big game.

Working on the prospect tracker earlier (see article below) I decided to look at how many times CFB quarterbacks have been sacked during the 2009 and 2010 season. The results were very interesting.

Andrew Luck has been sacked just nine times during the last two seasons. Incredible protection from the Stanford offensive line and a further sign as to how good that offense is functioning. But how many times have other prospects been sacked in the same time frame.

Jake Locker – 43

Ryan Mallett – 38

Blaine Gabbert – 24

Christian Ponder – 24

Matt Barkley – 30

Terrelle Pryor – 38

Cam Newton has only been with Auburn for one year – so far he’s been sacked 15 times in 2010.

It has to be said – that is a fantastic environment for Andrew Luck to perform. One of the knocks on Sam Bradford before his shoulder injury was that he didn’t face much pressure at Oklahoma. In the two years before his injury, he was sacked 23 times. The fact Luck has only been sacked nine times in nearly two full years of football is incredible. Compare that situation to Jake Locker – who has been sacked 43 times. It has to have an impact on how prospects perform.