If you’re unable to watch some of the weekend’s big games, I’d recommend visiting the SEC’s official website. The ‘video’ section archives all the games in full – including most recently Auburn vs Ole Miss, Florida vs Georgia and Kentucky vs Mississipi State. If you want to take a look at guys like Cam Newton, Nick Fairley, A.J. Green, Janoris Jenkins and Derek Sherrod – it’s the perfect opportunity. I’d recommend watching Green vs Jenkins from the Florida/Georgia game.
Author: Rob Staton (Page 416 of 423)
Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.
For the first time this year I’ve published a full first round mock projection. I’ve taken the time to try and see as many prospects as possible to try and project, even at this early stage, where certain individuals may fall. The draft order is a mix of current NFL standings and projections. Atlanta and New England pick 31st and 32nd overall purely on NFC and AFC rankings.
To view the updated 2011 NFL mock draft, click here or select ‘Mock Draft’ in the title bar.
Cam Newton (QB, Auburn) features for the first time. As you can see, he’s also amongst the top ten picks. For starters, it’s an absolute lock that Newton will declare. His stock will never be higher than it is now and the issues he’ll have in the pro’s are unlikely to be solved with another year at Auburn. If they reach/win the BCS title game, you also have to wonder what else he can achieve in the college game.
The big advantage would be extra experience starting, which is always a major bonus. However, having transferred from Florida via the JUCO ranks, he’d have to return as a fifth year senior. He will declare for the 2011 draft.
So why do I put him in the top ten, especially when I’ve voiced concerns about drafting him early?
Last night I sat down and studied every snap Newton took against LSU. Some of my concerns remain – specifically with the way he drops all weight on to his back foot when throwing, losing almost all velocity. This is a footwork issue and although he does take snaps under centre, he clearly needs to work on every aspect of drop backs, reads, getting the ball out quickly and developing almost completely as an all round passer.
The good news and an area where I have perhaps under estimated is the fact his release point is actually very good. He has an over the top release without the looping delay that Tim Tebow had or the side arm motion we see with Jimmy Clausen or Vince Young. He’ll learn to get his throws out crisply and drive through the ball. If he gets his footwork right, there’s no reason why he can’t be an orthodox passer.
It’s hard to judge accuracy when he doesn’t throw that much and with most defenses petrified of conceding the run. However, I’m yet to see anything off-putting. He isn’t wildly inconsistent and most of his passes hit the target. He’s got a range, he has a big arm. There’s something to work with.
And most of all he’s an elite athlete who will hurt teams with some specific run plays. He won’t be using the QB draw every other down ala Auburn, but you can use him in roll outs and bootlegs with success.
The point I’m trying to make with this diagnosis is that there’s enough on the tape for a team to buy in to Newton as a starting NFL quarterback. Right now he isn’t a natural pocket passer and it will take major work to get there. Is it impossible? No. Are the other benefits – the world class athlete… the dynamic playmaker… things that teams love to gamble on?
Yes.
If Tim Tebow is a first round pick at all, then Cam Newton is a high first round pick. Essentially, he’s Tebow but with much greater athleticism and mechanics. He doesn’t have the ‘moxy’ (again, hate the word – especially when describing QB’s) that Tebow brought to the table, but both have a lot of developing to do as passers, yet Newton’s ceiling is outrageously higher than Tebow’s.
Would I take the risk myself? It’s a big project and I’m still not certain. Can he be that orthodox QB that is capable of beating a team by throwing? Is he just a rare athlete who can outclass college players, but will be smothered in the pro’s? Is his destiny merely as a trick play gimmick or H-Back? Or will he be the next big thing?
Somebody will have convinced themselves of the latter by next April and he will go early.
Seahawks in round two?
Some suggestions for the direction Seattle could go in round two:
– Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) – hands, routes and effort will keep him out of R1. He has the size and speed Seattle is looking for in it’s wide outs.
– Pernell McPhee (DE/DT, Miss. St) – a five technique candidate who can move inside as well.
– Rodney Hudson (OG, Florida State) – big talent if not big size. Should Seahawks stick by ZBS, Hudson is the perfect fit at guard or center.
– Cameron Hewyard (DE, Ohio State) – over rated for me and not a first round pick, but another 5-tech candidate later on.
– Von Miller (OLB, Texas A&M) – under sized but could have value as an edge specialist.
– J.J. Watt (DE, Wisconsin) – another 5-tech candidate with a growing reputation.
Agree or disagree? Let me know your thoughts on the latest 2011 Mock Draft or anything else you want to discuss. Get in touch in the comments section or email rob@seahawksdraftblog.com
It’s being reported that Jake Locker won’t feature in Saturday’s game between Washington and Oregon. A broken rib will keep him out indefinitely, with the earliest possible return on November 18th against UCLA.
The injury itself won’t be of great concern to scouts. It makes sense to keep Locker out of a game Washington haven’t much hope of winning any way and allowing time to heal. What it does do however is eliminate another key game from the schedule for Locker to flash his talents on a national scale.
The Ducks are currently ranked number one in the BCS Rankings. A performance of any kind in that game would’ve been duly noted. Instead scouts will linger on another disjointed display in Saturday’s blowout to Stanford, which renewed memories of a previous stock-killer against Nebraska.
Admittedly it would be harsh to pin much blame on Locker’s shoulders. He barely had a chance against Stanford, who systematically destroyed Washington in the trenches and regularly stopped Locker before he had a chance to flash his undoubted ability.
However – NFL teams will look at a prospect who hasn’t taken a leap forward as a fifth year senior. His numbers are not improved, his best win will probably be against USC again and he hasn’t shown any greater poise as a passer to compliment the playmaking ability. They’ll bare in mind Locker’s circumstance, but they’ll also wonder if the upside is high enough to warrant the big investment.
Right now I would put his stock firmly in that 25-40 range, depending on where certain teams are picking next April. That doesn’t mean I don’t think Locker will go earlier, it’s all about draft order. He isn’t going to fall out of the second round because there’s a high enough ceiling to justify investment earlier than that. He’s a far better prospect overall than Jimmy Clausen in my opinion.
Promise will not be enough to justify a high selection. Unless someone is really sold on his potential, I don’t see him falling as high as we thought before this season began. The emergence of Cam Newton (QB, Auburn) is an interesting side-story too. In my next mock draft this week, he’ll be making a first appearance. I’ve raised serious concerns about Newton as a passer. However – I do feel, like Tebow last year, someone will roll that dice in round one. The difference being here – Newton is a much, much greater athlete than Tebow and is nowhere near the mechanical headache Tebow was as a passer.
When you throw Ryan Mallett into the equation and potentially Blaine Gabbert too, there will be alternatives to Locker available.
Lot’s of people will point to Locker’s decision to return for another year at Washington. Certainly it’s been proven that staying in college gives scouts the chance to further dissect your game and perhaps lower your grade. Could this hurt Locker? Maybe – but you can also look at Sam Bradford who went back to Oklahoma, got injured and missed the entire year but still went first overall. Alternatively, Jimmy Clausen declared as an underclassman and didn’t go as high as he expected. Locker supposedly wasn’t given a first round grade by the draft advisory group before deciding to pass on the 2010 draft.
A tough night for Jake Locker vs Stanford
I was able to watch the first three quarters of the Stanford vs Washington game (or Luck vs Locker as it’s become). I’ve just got back home from working in London and will be up early tomorrow (it’s 1:30am here) to return to the city for tomorrow’s Denver vs San Francisco game. However, I wanted to open up this thread as a discussion center for those watching the game or any of the CFB this weekend.
Frankly it’s impossible to scout Jake Locker in this situation. Washington’s offensive line has been shambolic. He’s taken a couple of big hits, had almost no time in the pocket and has became jittery.
But as bad as Washington’s offensive and defensive lines were, Stanford were the polar opposite. It certainly makes life easy for Andrew Luck – who had an age to throw and is able to lean on a completely dominant run game. Having said that – Luck has cleary made significant strides from the UCLA game. His throws are a lot more restrained, he’s moving the ball well and his accuracy is much improved. He’s nowhere near as erratic despite a similar blow-out.
A 51-yard touchdown run from Luck flashed the kind of athletic qualities he has. As a passer he’s milked Washington dry.
In my last mock draft I put Luck in San Francisco. That would be an ideal situation. It’s close to his current home, he’ll have a solid young O-line. He’ll be able to lean on a power back (Frank Gore) with two legitimate targets to throw to (Davis/Crabtree). A match made in heaven.
Elsewhere, Cam Newton (who will almost certainly declare for 2011 and will be in my next mock) is stamping is name all over the Heisman. He’s caught a TD pass today and thrown a lot more in a beat-down of Ole Miss.
I’ve also caught some of Florida vs Georgia. It was interesting to watch Janoris Jenkins (CB, Florida) perform well against AJ Green (WR, Georgia). Jenkins has done a great job this year covering Julio Jones and Green. That’s probably the two elite WR prospects from the 2011 class. He struggled, however, against Terrance Tolliver (WR, LSU) who might be a UDFA or late round pick.
The reason? When it comes to pure coverage, Jenkins might be the best corner in next April’s draft. When asked to make open field tackles or confront a big receiver in space, he’s one of the worst. Nevertheless, he’ll go early – teams love corner’s that can cover. Jenkins has elite cover skills.
I’ve got games to watch when I get back from London. Expect plenty on the blog Monday. Until then, let me know any thoughts you have in the comments section on this weekends action.
I’m going to be in London this weekend for – amongst other things – the game between Denver and San Francisco at Wembley Stadium. I’ve got Miami vs Virginia, USC vs Oregon and Missouri vs Nebraska on record to watch next week.
I watched Florida State’s defeat to North Carolina State last night. Nearly every mock draft I see has Christian Ponder (QB, FSU) in the first or second round (example 1, example 2). Personally, I find that astonishing. I go into more detail here but I wouldn’t draft him in the first four rounds. We’re in danger of overstating percevied intelligence off the field and ‘moxie’ and ignoring glaring physical weaknesses and a lack of accuracy.
Let me quote Ron Jaworski, who had this to say when reviewing Cardinals’ rookie Max Hall:
“The one thing we’ve heard about Max is the moxy and the leadership. Those are all wonderful attributes for a quarterback but the attributes you have to have week in week out to be successful over a long period of time is the ability to throw the football accurately and with velocity. When I look at the tape I don’t see either of those. I don’t see the ball going down the field. You see the bubble screen, the bootleg thrown in the flat and nothing down the field. You just don’t see a skill set that projects to be a consistent NFL quarterback. Things don’t look good when you’re on the field with Max Hall. It’s that simple. I’m sure he’s a wonderful guy giving everything he’s got but the skill set just isn’t there.”
Clearly this is very specific to Max Hall. However, this certainly relates to some of the issues I have with Ponder. He doesn’t have a strong arm, in fact it’s pretty weak. His first downfield pass against North Carolina State last night was a high floaty ball with zero velocity into double coverage.
One thing I just don’t ‘get’ with Ponder is the lack of velocity he even puts on his wide receiver screens. The idea of a screen pass is to get the ball quickly to the wide out who can take advantage of soft coverage. When Ponder throws the ball out, it’s almost like he’s concentrating too much in simply hitting the receiver, as it floats out with nowhere near enough zip. The defensive back has more than enough time to read the play, react and make the tackle.
His decision making and accuracy have been all over the place in 2010. In the last two games against NC State and Boston College, I counted three times when Ponder took play action, turned to his right only to be greeted by a defensive lineman charging to him. In this situation he has to either take the sack and accept the broken play, try and throw the ball away or make a play with his legs. On each occasion Ponder simply threw the ball straight at the DL allowing the pass to be tipped up into the air. It led to one interception against BC and another similar play for a pick six was called back because of a fortunate false start. This is just one example of the way Ponder tries too hard to force throws.
A lot of people talk about his intelligence and leadership. When you hear Ponder in interviews he comes across most personable and clearly switched on. I’ve no doubt he’s a hard worker off the field and studying won’t be an issue at the next level. We need to distinguish between off the field intelligence and on the field smarts. I don’t think Ponder reads the game well enough. There are too many basic errors, too many botched plays. I don’t like Greg McIlroy as a pro-prospect and he’s physically limited. However – you can see he’s ‘game smart’ by the fact he limits his mistakes and simply keeps things ticking over. He manages. Ponder doesn’t.
The clearest example of this was the last real play of the game. Florida State had stormed down field into the red zone with seconds left needing a touchdown to win. Play action was the call, but Ponder faked the hand off wrongly to the full back – so when the half back arrived for the ball they collided, forcing a fumble.
On three occassions last night, Ponder reacted badly to dropped passes. Admittedly, on all three occassions the ball was on the money and the catch needed to be completed. However – sinking to your knees with your head in your hands after such a mistake is not the way to lead your team.
Stats can be misleading in many ways. A wideout like Julio Jones did suffer last year playing in a run-dominant offense. Due to his well publicised ‘drops’, many over emphasised the mental errors – which although they did exist – were not the sole reason for a slight sophomore slump.
Some quaterbacks get praised for stats when they play in a pass friendly system. As good as Sam Bradford is, his incredible 50 touchdown Heisman year played some part to the offense he played in as well as his incredible talent.
Florida State aren’t a bad team. They’ve defeated Miami and even when their quarterback has played very poorly (vs Boston College) they’ve done enough to win. But I just don’t know what to make of Ponder’s numbers. In eight games, he’s only reached 200+ yards once – against a decidedly poor Wake Forest outfit. He’s ranked only the fourth best QB in the distinctly average ACC. His 13-7 TD/INT ratio isn’t disastrous, but it isn’t that great either. His completion percentage is down from 68% last year to 60% this year.
You can make of that what you will. However, scouts will watch the tape from 2010 and see a prospect who just hasn’t performed well enough. Physically limited, not accurate enough to make up for it and hasn’t put up the big numbers despite some weak opponents. He had a second round grade coming into 2010 and hasn’t done anything this year to improve that.
I can only see a backup role in the NFL at best. Even then – I don’t think he’ll beat teams physically or with his accuracy. He could well be another Max Hall – struggling to get the ball down field, making basic errors. He’s more athletic than Max Hall for sure, but not in terms of being able to hurt a team. He’ll move around in the pocket a bit more, but he isn’t a good passer on the move and struggles to keep his eyes downfield.
But then we come back to the ‘moxie’ and ‘intelligence’. That will never be a good enough reason alone to grade a prospect in round one. It’s why Colt McCoy went in round three (despite a much better CFB career) and probably should’ve gone later than even that. You don’t go the other way and over promote a physical specimen who isn’t switched on (JaMarcus Russell). Ponder is neither physical or accurate enough to deserve the high grade some people have offered.
***Weekend Links***
Chad Reuter and Rob Rang from NFL Draft Scout look at the top senior prospects on offense and defense. I don’t agree with Rang that Cameron Heyward is the best defensive end and think he’s another ‘big name’ who’s slightly over rated. Neither Heyward or Allen Bailey (Miami) have great production this year – but Bailey is by far the more physically talented. Note the use of ‘moxie’ in Reuter’s review of Ponder. He does at least appreciate his inability to drive the ball downfield.
Walter Cherepinsky publishes an updated mock draft. He has the Seahawks drafting 21st overall in round one and selecting Jake Locker (QB, Washington). I don’t think that’s an unrealistic proposition. I do however disagree with the choice in round two – Kritofer O’Dowd (C, USC). This is too high for O’Dowd, particularly with Stephen Paea (DT, Oregon State) and Rodney Hudson (G, FSU) still on the board.
Mocking the Draft passes on information regarding Aaron Williams (CB, Texas) intentions for the 2011 NFL Draft. “On the season, Williams has 30 tackles, seven pass breakups, seven passes defended, five tackles for a loss, three forced fumbles and a sack.”
Mel Kiper hosts his weekly web chat. He says he has Florida State’s brilliant guard Rodney Hudson ranked 28th on his big board. He also discusses a number of other big name prospects.
A video to finish with. Want to know more about Auburn QB Cam Newton (who appears almost certain to enter the 2011 draft)?
Jones is starting to match potential with production
One of the toughest prospects to judge this year is Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones. After an excellent season as a true freshman (924 yards, four TD’s) much was expected from Jones in 2009. He regressed slightly as a sophomore, putting in a number of frustrating performances littered with mental errors and drops. The numbers were down – only 596 yards – and he entered his junior (and likely final) year with the Crimson Tide needing to rekindle his spark.
Physically he’s everything you’d ever want in a #1 NFL wide out. He has the height (6-4), the size (220lbs) and the speed to do it all. He blocks well in the running game, he gets down field to stretch a defense. You can use him in the red zone on fades or play action.
When I watched him in 2009, I was pretty disappointed. I’m not sure if it was the level of expectation getting to him, but there were too many basic errors. It doesn’t matter how physically elite you are if you have a case of the drops. He only had one +100 yard game last year – largely in part due to a 73-yard touchdown screen against LSU. Part of the problem was Alabama’s run heavy offense which used the pass as a compliment feature. But you couldn’t get away from the drops.
I’d originally seen Alabama two times this year – against Arkansas and Florida. A single play from Jones also sticks in the mind from ‘Bama’s opener against San Jose State – a world class one handed grab for a TD which showed the immense talent on offer.
Against Arkansas and Florida, I got the impression not much had changed this year with Jones. Alabama ran the ball well and didn’t use their talented receiver a whole lot. There were a couple of sloppy drops against Arkansas. Jones was completely shut down by Janoris Jenkins against Florida – his four grabs for 19 yards only came via dump offs and screens. He was a complete non-factor in a blow-out victory.
At this point I wondered if we were looking at a pure ‘potential’ prospect – someone who has the tools, but like a lot of wide receivers coming into the NFL – no guarantee the light switches on in the pro’s. Scouts Inc had Jones ranked with a second round grade. Matt McGuire posted a mock draft on WalterFootball with Jones in round two, stating:
“Don’t say I didn’t warn you if Julio Jones to me looks like the next Roy Williams (underachieving receiver with all the physical talent in the world) or James Hardy (a poor man’s Roy Williams with less speed).”
Alternatively, Chad Reuter from NFL Draft Scout ranked Jones as a potential top-10 pick in his mock drafts. Mel Kiper has kept Jones in the range he currently sits on his big board – #13 overall. Mocking the Draft went a step further recently and suggested he could even be a top-five pick:
“Playing against man coverage with a safety shadowing over top, Jones displayed his strength and speed. More than anything, he also showed his toughness. It’s what sets him apart from every receiver in the nation, other than Green. It’s what also could get Jones into the top five of the 2011 NFL Draft.”
With such a contrast in rankings, I wanted to spend some time looking at Jones. His performance last Saturday in setting a school record for receiving – 221 yards and 12 catches against Tennessee – made me wonder if finally the production was going to match the potential.
I had Alabama’s defeat to South Carolina saved up and ready to watch. In the game, Jones had 118 yard from eight catches and a TD.
The first thing I noticed is something that I’ve picked up on before. Jones sometimes has a little dance step at the snap which needs to be removed. It’s not a big issue – Michael Crabtree had exactly the same problem. However, he’s capable of exploding and running really crisp routes and this holds him back slightly.
If this was the first time I’d seen Jones and you told me he had issues with drops – I wouldn’t believe you. Apart from one low drop which was all on Greg McIlroy’s terrible throw, Jones’ hands were borderline elite. Everything was plucked out of the air with his hands – no body catching. I don’t rate McIlroy as a quarterback in the slightest – and this was the perfect example why. He struggled to hit a 6-4 target dwarfing over coverage, yet Jones bailed him out with a number of acrobatic grabs.
He ran one great route down the middle of the field – this time the throw was on the money. Jones had two defensive backs ready to deliver a crunching hit, but he didn’t hear footsteps and simply completed the pass and took the shot. Impressive.
With 40 seconds left of the first half and with Alabama trailing, he feigned to the outside before cutting through a slant in the red zone. McIlroy throws a wild pass high up into the air above Jones’ head. He quickly adjusts and makes a superb, athletic grab for the touchdown despite tight coverage and a hand in the face from the DB.
I counted seven occasions when Jones beat his man deep but McIlroy didn’t look for him. The ‘Bama QB might have all the ‘moxie’ and ‘leadership’ in the world, but he makes one read and if it’s not on – takes the sack or throws it away. On every one of the seven occasions he never even looked Jones’ way. If he had, we could’ve been talking about a school record earlier than the Tennessee game.
Overall I came away impressed. That was the benchmark from which Jones has to build on – and it’s good to see he’s done so in the next game he saw significant action (injury kept him out vs Ole Miss). His most recent achievements are all the more impressive because he’s been battling a serious hand injury. He’s not a diva, he’s got the attitude you don’t always expect from a talented CFB receiver.
If he’s turned the corner and is starting to show a level of performance that matches his potential – I’d feel confident giving Jones a top-20 grade.
Interesting information today via Tony Pauline. He claims soures have told him Auburn duo Cam Newton (QB) and Nick Fairley (DT) plan to declare for the 2011 NFL Draft.
It’s wouldn’t be much of a surprise. Fairley is having a tremendous year with nine sacks and an interception already. It’d make sense for him to strike while the iron is hot.
Newton is the heart of the team’s success. He’s accounted for 27 total touchdowns and rushed for +170 yards five times this year. He’s the clear front runner for the Heisman trophy. As a fourth year player it wouldn’t be surprising to see him go one-and-done with Auburn, having previously transferred from Florida and joined the JUCO ranks.
Statistically they’re having the kind of year you’d expect would lead to leaving college early. They may also appeciate Auburn’s difficulty in repeating success in 2011 if they do, for example, go unbeaten and win the BCS title game. What more would there be to achieve?
I’ve currently got Fairley in the 20-32 range, but he’s the hot name at the moment and many have him higher. Mel Kiper has him #8 on his latest big board. I’ve discussed Newton in more detail here and here. I wouldn’t draft him to play quarterback. Clearly he’s a world class athlete with amazing size (6-6, 250lbs). However, he’s got serious mechanical issues as a passer and acts as a run-first QB with Auburn.
He’s only completed more than 15 passes in a game once this year and he’s only attempted more than 20 passes twice. He systematically destroyed LSU last weekend, while only passing for 86 yards and no touchdowns. I absolutely could see a team falling in love with the athletic qualities and taking him in round one – but I wouldn’t pull that trigger.
Coming into the year, Jake Locker (QB, Washington) was top of Mel Kiper’s big board. He’s gradually slipped away and last week was ranked at #8. Today, Kiper has the Huskies quarterback plummeting all the way to #16. Yesterday in my updated mock draft, I looked at the possibility Locker may not go in the top-20 picks. The voices that praised him as the top senior prospect a few weeks ago are going quiet. The critics voices are growing stronger. Here’s what Kiper had to say:
Solid TD-INT ratio, but his 56.5 completion percentage is 83rd nationally. Arm and intangibles there, but stock slipping.
It’s not a detailed explanation as to why he’s fallen eight places in one week, especially when Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas) actually went up from #13 to #10 on the big board after a mediocre performance against Ole Miss when he only completed 13/24 passing for 196 yards including one pick and one touchdown. Inside information? Who knows. It goes to show the state of Locker’s stock at the moment.
Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn) is on the board for the first time, going straight in at #8. You can’t ignore his production so far this year and his performance against LSU was simply stunning. However, he’s played well all year so it’s a surprise to see Fairley appear this high out of the blue. Another new face on the board? Justin Houston (OLB, Georgia) who appears at #17.
The latest projection is now available and can be found by clicking here or selecting ‘Mock Draft’ in the title bar. Last year I used my weekly mock updates to look at different scenarios. Quite obviously, it’s impossible to predict how things are going to shape up this early. The mocks are really designed to encourage debate and look at how prospects are performing. Because I’m putting out mocks a lot earlier this year, I haven’t really had a chance to cover a lot of different possibilities. That will start from now on. I’m keeping it as a top-20 projection for now but will develop the mock into a full first round in November.
Talking point #1 – Buffalo aren’t taking a quarterback? Seriously?
In all honesty, I wasn’t surprised Buffalo took C.J. Spiller in round one last year. Not because I liked Spiller (which I did), but mainly because it was the kind of pick Buffalo have been making for a while now. They don’t do predictable.
They need a quarterback. They need a left tackle. They need more talent on defense. If I was them and had the first overall pick next year – I’d study Andrew Luck and Jake Locker, decide who is most capable of leading the recovery and make the choice. As I mentioned though – this isn’t an easy front office to work out. I still think a QB is very likely and should be the selection. However, we might as well consider the alternatives over the next 4-5 months until the 2011 draft.
If they do decide to pass on a quarterback, Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson) could be the reason why. Buffalo switched to a 4-3 against Baltimore and appear to have given up on Aaron Maybin. Only three teams have less sacks than Buffalo. Bowers is on target for 17 sacks in 2010 and is starting to live up to expectations as a former #1 ranked recruit.
Since 1998 when Peyton Manning was drafted first overall, nine quarterbacks have been taken with the top pick. Only three non-quarterbacks have been taken first overall – two defensive ends (Courtney Brown, Mario Williams) and one offensive lineman (Jake Long). With no left tackle worthy of even top-five consideration, the Bills will almost certainly choose between one of the quarterbacks or a defensive end like Bowers.
Talking point #2 – Where’s Jake Locker?
Since I started my 2010 mock drafts, Jake Locker has been absent only once – following his poor performance against Nebraska. I had him as the #1 overall pick last week – suggesting Buffalo may be wowed by his athletic qualities. However, for every person who thinks Locker should go that high, there are people who aren’t so positive.
I’ve spoken to two scouts from established national draft sites in the last ten days. One felt that Locker’s stock was firmly in the 20-40 range. The other told me that he’d spoken to a NFL scout who said Locker wasn’t even the best senior on Washington’s roster. Could he fall on draft day? I can understand why that could happen. Opinion is mixed on Locker – some point out the lack of overall talent on the Washington team and praise the physical and athletic qualities on show. Others say he just hasn’t progressed from last year, rightly point out the number of times Locker has to get out of the pocket to make plays and point to erratic play and sometimes poor decision making.
Whether he falls or not will depend on the teams needing a QB who own early picks. Would a team like Arizona roll the dice on another QB after the Leinart experiment? Would they not look for perhaps a ‘quicker fix’ to make use of the talent they have now? Would a team like Jacksonville show interest in Locker when they’ve been determined to create a strong defense in recent years – with a big need in the secondary still prevalent?
What free agent quarterbacks will be available – and will we see any big trades (eg Donovan McNabb earlier this year)? Would teams look at a guy like Ryan Mallett who may be around in the second or even third round and fancy taking on that challenge? Will Blaine Gabbert declare? I wouldn’t draft Christian Ponder before round five – but will teams feel differently? It wouldn’t surprise me if Locker did end up falling into that 20-40 range and that’s represented in this latest mock.
Talking point #3 – So what about the Seahawks?
Seattle is 4-2 and leads the NFC West. If the Seahawks win the division they’ll pick no earlier than 21st overall. It’s the first time since 2008 that I haven’t been regularly mocking Seattle in the top-10.
In my opinion, the team’s biggest need is quarterback and it’s not even close. If Matt Hasselbeck makes the Pro-Bowl this year and gets a new contract, nothing changes. If Charlie Whitehurst is sensational in practise or gets an opportunity and does really well – again nothing changes. The simple matter is – whilst there’s no secure planning at the position it’ll always be the biggest need. Hasselbeck remains a short-term fix and Whitehurst is yet to prove he’s a legitimate franchise quarterback.
With all that taken into consideration, I think if you have a quarterback on your board with a first round grade when you’re on the clock – you take them. Let them compete and if they’re not ready to start immediately, you invest in the future. When you’re picking in the 20’s… a bust is a bust. If you like the guy enough to take him at all, you take the chance. In this scenario, obviously you’d have to consider Jake Locker who would be a natural fit for the Seahawks offense.
What about alternatives? Mike Williams is starting to look like a #1 receiver, but I think there’s still room to improve alongside him at the position. Julio Jones (WR, Alabama) is starting to get it. His occasional mental lapses might cost him the opportunity to go higher, but I think he’s a solid option in the 16-32 range as someone with the physical skills and the right attitude.
There would be a number of options on the defensive line. Drake Nevis (DT, LSU) and Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn) both grade in the 16-32 range as well and fit as potential three-techniques in a 4-3 defense. Cameron Heyward (DE, Ohio State) is a bit over rated for me, but is a solid option versus the run and could spell alongside Red Bryant as a more athletic five technique. Von Miller (DE, Texas A&M) and his lack of size worry me and he hasn’t had the same success this year (injuries have played a part). He could, however, be an option off the edge as a specialist pass rusher. Pernell McPhee (DE, Miss. State) and Cameron Jordan (DE, California) could play off the edge, although they might be too big for the specialist LEO role.
Some have spoken about potentially drafting a tackle to book end Russell Okung. I think that’s an area that can be addressed later or via free agency, but if it’s a BPA situation it may be considered if other needs like QB aren’t available. Derrek Sherrod (OT, Miss. State) and Nate Solder (OT, Colorado) are still available, but both would be better suited to the blind side. Gabe Carimi (OT, Wisconsin) would be a better fit on the right side, but I remain unconvinced he’s worthy of a late first round grade.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments section. Do you agree with the mock projection? Could Da’Quan Bowers go first overall? Will Jake Locker fall in round one? Who should the Seahawks target if they do win the NFC West and therefore make the playoffs?
To see the latest Seahawks Draft Blog mock draft click here.
