Author: Rob Staton (Page 417 of 423)

Coming into the year, Jake Locker (QB, Washington) was top of Mel Kiper’s big board. He’s gradually slipped away and last week was ranked at #8. Today, Kiper has the Huskies quarterback plummeting all the way to #16. Yesterday in my updated mock draft, I looked at the possibility Locker may not go in the top-20 picks. The voices that praised him as the top senior prospect a few weeks ago are going quiet. The critics voices are growing stronger. Here’s what Kiper had to say:

Solid TD-INT ratio, but his 56.5 completion percentage is 83rd nationally. Arm and intangibles there, but stock slipping.

It’s not a detailed explanation as to why he’s fallen eight places in one week, especially when Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas) actually went up from #13 to #10 on the big board after a mediocre performance against Ole Miss when he only completed 13/24 passing for 196 yards including one pick and one touchdown. Inside information? Who knows. It goes to show the state of Locker’s stock at the moment.

Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn) is on the board for the first time, going straight in at #8. You can’t ignore his production so far this year and his performance against LSU was simply stunning. However, he’s played well all year so it’s a surprise to see Fairley appear this high out of the blue. Another new face on the board? Justin Houston (OLB, Georgia) who appears at #17.

The latest projection is now available and can be found by clicking here or selecting ‘Mock Draft’ in the title bar. Last year I used my weekly mock updates to look at different scenarios. Quite obviously, it’s impossible to predict how things are going to shape up this early. The mocks are really designed to encourage debate and look at how prospects are performing. Because I’m putting out mocks a lot earlier this year, I haven’t really had a chance to cover a lot of different possibilities. That will start from now on. I’m keeping it as a top-20 projection for now but will develop the mock into a full first round in November.

Talking point #1 – Buffalo aren’t taking a quarterback? Seriously?

In all honesty, I wasn’t surprised Buffalo took C.J. Spiller in round one last year. Not because I liked Spiller (which I did), but mainly because it was the kind of pick Buffalo have been making for a while now. They don’t do predictable.

They need a quarterback. They need a left tackle. They need more talent on defense. If I was them and had the first overall pick next year – I’d study Andrew Luck and Jake Locker, decide who is most capable of leading the recovery and make the choice. As I mentioned though – this isn’t an easy front office to work out. I still think a QB is very likely and should be the selection. However, we might as well consider the alternatives over the next 4-5 months until the 2011 draft.

If they do decide to pass on a quarterback, Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson) could be the reason why. Buffalo switched to a 4-3 against Baltimore and appear to have given up on Aaron Maybin. Only three teams have less sacks than Buffalo. Bowers is on target for 17 sacks in 2010 and is starting to live up to expectations as a former #1 ranked recruit.

Since 1998 when Peyton Manning was drafted first overall, nine quarterbacks have been taken with the top pick. Only three non-quarterbacks have been taken first overall – two defensive ends (Courtney Brown, Mario Williams) and one offensive lineman (Jake Long). With no left tackle worthy of even top-five consideration, the Bills will almost certainly choose between one of the quarterbacks or a defensive end like Bowers.

Talking point #2 – Where’s Jake Locker?

Since I started my 2010 mock drafts, Jake Locker has been absent only once – following his poor performance against Nebraska. I had him as the #1 overall pick last week – suggesting Buffalo may be wowed by his athletic qualities. However, for every person who thinks Locker should go that high, there are people who aren’t so positive.

I’ve spoken to two scouts from established national draft sites in the last ten days. One felt that Locker’s stock was firmly in the 20-40 range. The other told me that he’d spoken to a NFL scout who said Locker wasn’t even the best senior on Washington’s roster. Could he fall on draft day? I can understand why that could happen. Opinion is mixed on Locker – some point out the lack of overall talent on the Washington team and praise the physical and athletic qualities on show. Others say he just hasn’t progressed from last year, rightly point out the number of times Locker has to get out of the pocket to make plays and point to erratic play and sometimes poor decision making.

Whether he falls or not will depend on the teams needing a QB who own early picks. Would a team like Arizona roll the dice on another QB after the Leinart experiment? Would they not look for perhaps a ‘quicker fix’ to make use of the talent they have now? Would a team like Jacksonville show interest in Locker when they’ve been determined to create a strong defense in recent years – with a big need in the secondary still prevalent?

What free agent quarterbacks will be available – and will we see any big trades (eg Donovan McNabb earlier this year)? Would teams look at a guy like Ryan Mallett who may be around in the second or even third round and fancy taking on that challenge? Will Blaine Gabbert declare? I wouldn’t draft Christian Ponder before round five – but will teams feel differently? It wouldn’t surprise me if Locker did end up falling into that 20-40 range and that’s represented in this latest mock.

Talking point #3 – So what about the Seahawks?

Seattle is 4-2 and leads the NFC West. If the Seahawks win the division they’ll pick no earlier than 21st overall. It’s the first time since 2008 that I haven’t been regularly mocking Seattle in the top-10.

In my opinion, the team’s biggest need is quarterback and it’s not even close. If Matt Hasselbeck makes the Pro-Bowl this year and gets a new contract, nothing changes. If Charlie Whitehurst is sensational in practise or gets an opportunity and does really well – again nothing changes. The simple matter is – whilst there’s no secure planning at the position it’ll always be the biggest need. Hasselbeck remains a short-term fix and Whitehurst is yet to prove he’s a legitimate franchise quarterback.

With all that taken into consideration, I think if you have a quarterback on your board with a first round grade when you’re on the clock – you take them. Let them compete and if they’re not ready to start immediately, you invest in the future. When you’re picking in the 20’s… a bust is a bust. If you like the guy enough to take him at all, you take the chance. In this scenario, obviously you’d have to consider Jake Locker who would be a natural fit for the Seahawks offense.

What about alternatives? Mike Williams is starting to look like a #1 receiver, but I think there’s still room to improve alongside him at the position. Julio Jones (WR, Alabama) is starting to get it. His occasional mental lapses might cost him the opportunity to go higher, but I think he’s a solid option in the 16-32 range as someone with the physical skills and the right attitude.

There would be a number of options on the defensive line. Drake Nevis (DT, LSU) and Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn) both grade in the 16-32 range as well and fit as potential three-techniques in a 4-3 defense. Cameron Heyward (DE, Ohio State) is a bit over rated for me, but is a solid option versus the run and could spell alongside Red Bryant as a more athletic five technique. Von Miller (DE, Texas A&M) and his lack of size worry me and he hasn’t had the same success this year (injuries have played a part). He could, however, be an option off the edge as a specialist pass rusher. Pernell McPhee (DE, Miss. State) and Cameron Jordan (DE, California) could play off the edge, although they might be too big for the specialist LEO role.

Some have spoken about potentially drafting a tackle to book end Russell Okung. I think that’s an area that can be addressed later or via free agency, but if it’s a BPA situation it may be considered if other needs like QB aren’t available. Derrek Sherrod (OT, Miss. State) and Nate Solder (OT, Colorado) are still available, but both would be better suited to the blind side. Gabe Carimi (OT, Wisconsin) would be a better fit on the right side, but I remain unconvinced he’s worthy of a late first round grade.

Let me know your thoughts in the comments section. Do you agree with the mock projection? Could Da’Quan Bowers go first overall? Will Jake Locker fall in round one? Who should the Seahawks target if they do win the NFC West and therefore make the playoffs?

To see the latest Seahawks Draft Blog mock draft click here.

Here’s my schedule for week eight and what I’ll be looking out for:

UCLA at Oregon
I’ve recorded this from last night and will be watching later today. My focus will largely be on how the Bruins manage Oregon’s spread offense, particularly stand out linebacker Akeem Ayers.

Wisconsin at Iowa
It’s another chance to watch Gabe Carimi (OT, Wisconsin) manager one of CFB’s better defensive ends. He did a sound job on Ohio State’s Cameron Heyward las week (although I think Heyward is over rated). Adrian Clayborn (DE, Iowa) hasn’t put up the big numbers this year and I’ve read mixed reviews. This is my first chance to watch Clayborn in 2010 and I want to see if he deserves to be classified in that top-15 range next April.

LSU at Auburn
This should be a fun game to watch although I suspect Auburn’s offense will smother LSU. Will Cam Newton (QB, Auburn) take on Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU)? I doubt it. Expect to see another 20-25 runs by Newton and another big yardage game. Unfortunately his skills just don’t translate (in my opinion) to the NFL. Despite a rather fortunate unbeaten start to the year, LSU’s quarterback situation is far from ideal. Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn) was this week labelled an ‘elite’ junior by Mel Kiper. I didn’t see that against Arkansas, but this is a much more favorable match up. 

Oklahoma at Missouri
Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri) might end up being the third quarterback taken next April. Right now he’s in that round 2-3 range but he needs to keep winning and he needs to prove he’s capable of making pro-reads. We probably won’t see the latter due to the system Gabbert’s in, but physically there’s not much that holds him back. Can he keep with Oklahoma’s prolific offense? Christian Ponder couldn’t. Ryan Broyles (WR, Oklahoma) is slowly gaining momentum and his 15-catch performance last week continues to push his stock into the late first round/early second. Can Jeremy Beal (DE, Oklahoma) get back amongst the sacks after a rare sackless game last week (18 sacks in his last 19 games).

Notre Dame at Navy
Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) divides opinion. In fact – so does Julio Jones (WR, Alabama) and Jonathan Baldwin (WR, Pittsburgh). One of them may well go in the last first round, but which? Floyd has everything you want from a #1 receiver physically. However, he runs sloppy routes, body catches far too much and doesn’t play up to his physical talents. He needs to step up, like the ND coaching staff have been fighting for all year, to become the prospect he’s capable of being.

Don’t forget – if you’re watching a game or two this weekend, let me know your thoughts. Who impressed? Who disappointed? Give us a name or two to look out for. You can leave comments on any of the blog posts at any time, or email rob@seahawksdraftblog.com

Mel Kiper took part in his weekly ESPN draft chat yesterday, with a few interesting observations. He thinks there’s a chance Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) and Jonathan Baldwin (WR, Pittsburgh) will not enter the 2011 draft. I disagree because I’m not sure their situation betters anymore next year and circumstance will be on their side now, it won’t be in 12 months time. He has some high praise for Rodney Hudson (OG, Florida State) – someone I’ve been talking about for a long time too. He also labels Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn) an “elite” junior prospect.

However, his most interesting comment perhaps involved Washington quarterback Jake Locker, when asked by a Seattle native named Keith how much his stock had fallen:

From being right there at the top. He was No. 1 on the board through the early portion of the season. Obviously, he fell after that performance against Nebraska. He’s played better. He fell from 7 to 8 this week. He’s going to be a nice QB. He needs to be coached up. Like all QBs, he’s going to need some time. He’ll fall in the middle of the first round. Luck and Mallett and Newton and the other juniors can’t go to the Senior Bowl. Locker is the only highly rated senior QB. I hope he’s at the Senior Bowl. He can start to improve his rating down there.

It’s interesting to note. A lot of draft pundits have been down on Locker from the start of the year and therefore rank him low accordingly. I spoke to one scout for a high-profile national draft website this week who told me he thinks Locker has ‘Clausen range’ stock and won’t be drafted until the 20-40 region next April. Kiper is amongst a few of the big names who ranked Locker very highly (#1 on his big board) at the start of the year and he still maintains praise for the Washington QB. However, even he is listing Locker amongst the mid-teens range at the moment.

I had Locker going first overall in my latest mock draft and I explained why in a bit more detail here. If Buffalo select first overall as many anticipate (0-5 record, tough AFC East schedule) they’re almost certainly going to draft a quarterback. There just aren’t enough alternatives. When 1-15 Miami passed on Matt Ryan in 2008, it’s because they felt Jake Long could be a long term fixture at left tackle. They also felt comfortable selecting Chad Henne in round two. There’s not a LT anywhere near good enough to go first overall this year and although there is some talent at defensive end, it seems unlikely Buffalo would consider a Da’Quan Bowers or Robert Quinn with the first pick – even if Bowers continues his run of nine sacks in six games.

Perhaps they would consider A.J. Green (WR, Georgia) – potentially the best overall prospect in the draft class? They like playmakers at the skill positions (see: C.J. Spiller). It could be an expensive investment at wide receiver. They would also have to be convinced by a prospect like Ryan Mallett later on in rounds 2-3. Clearly Mallett has the arm that would comfortably deal with the Buffalo weather, but would the Bills be willing to ignore the QB position with the #1 pick to gamble on filling that gaping black hole later on?

Maybe I’ll be proven wrong, but I have a hard time seeing Andrew Luck in a Bills uniform, for the reasons I gave in the Jake Locker article. If they absolutely must have a quarterback first overall and the options are Locker or Luck, I still think Locker gets the call. However, there are enough voices out there at the moment who seem to think Locker won’t be drafted that high. I also fully appreciate the issues they raise with Locker – namely his occasionally erratic decision making, his need to get out of the pocket so much and the nightmare performance against a good Nebraska defense. We’ll see if that changes over the next few weeks if Washington keep winning and Locker keeps performing like he did against USC and Oregon State.

I watched Florida State’s defeat of Boston College last weekend and once again came away distinctly unimpressed by FSU quarterback Christian Ponder. He threw three picks, looked lost at times and for the fifth game out of six this season he failed to throw for more than 200 yards. He hasn’t got good arm strength, he isn’t that accurate and whilst mobile he’s certainly not the same level of athlete as Jake Locker or even Andrew Luck. Simply put, I just can’t place him on a NFL roster starting games at the next level. A solid backup? Perhaps. But I certainly feel he’s being over rated by those slating him for round one and right now, I wouldn’t take him in the first four rounds.

ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay had this to say today:

There is clearly something wrong with Ponder. We don’t know whether it’s the lingering effects of an early-season triceps injury or something that has not been disclosed, but it’s hard to believe he has simply regressed to the point where he could become one of the Seminoles’ biggest liabilities.

The Eagles have a good defense and coach Frank Spaziani does a good job mixing up looks and confusing a quarterback’s reads, but three interceptions — and two other bad throws that were dropped by defenders — along with a fumble are unacceptable from a senior quarterback who is supposed to be at the top of his game.

Florida State was able to win despite Ponder’s miscues and he has half a season to turn things around, but he is far from a first-round lock and teams that would value him in a West Coast offense that emphasizes accuracy and good decisions were surely unimpressed. Ponder was not strong in either area against Boston College and he needs to shine in those areas in order to make up for a lack of ability to drive the ball down the field.

Assuming underclassmen Andrew Luck and Ryan Mallet enter the 2011 draft, they and Washington’s Jake Locker will clearly be the top three quarterbacks on the board. Ponder has a chance to play his way into the fourth spot but he has not helped his cause recently and needs to turn things around in a hurry.

Is an injury holding Ponder back? He certainly looked a lot better last year, especially against a UNC team still carrying a lot of it’s talented defensive prospects. However, you almost have to say if he is struggling he almost needs to stop playing to prevent further damage to his stock. Whilst some will appreciate the toughness of playing through the pain or not when 100%, this isn’t the kind of tape he wants scouts watching before the 2011 draft.

For the Seahawks to have a shot at drafting one of the ‘big two’ (although I have raised concerns with both Locker and Luck) without owning a top pick, they’ll need teams at the top of the draft to feel confident with alternatives. That could mean finding an answer via an existing veteran (trade of free agency) or settling for prospects in round two. Miami felt comfortable enough to pass on Matt Ryan in 2008 and take Jake Long first overall instead. They eventually drafted current starter Chad Henne in the second round and ran with Chad Pennington until he was ready to start. That year the second QB off the board was Joe Flacco who went 18th overall, despite a number of teams earlier in the draft having a prospective vacancy at quarterback.

So if you’re rooting for the Seahawks having a chance to draft Jake Locker or Andrew Luck next year, it might be worth hoping Christian Ponder, Ryan Mallett and Blaine Gabbert step up their performance.

This week’s update sees a change at the top. You can see the latest projection by clicking here or selecting ‘Mock Draft’ in the title bar.

Jake Locker has done enough since the Nebraska debacle to repair his stock and whilst his last three games haven’t been flawless, he’s flashed the kind of playmaking qualities that initially made him the big tip to go first overall. I already outlined here why I think Locker is better suited to Buffalo than Andrew Luck. I think there’s a good chance Carolina – if they continue to lose – will consider drafting a quarterback early too. There will be major coaching changes with the Panthers at the end of the season and who’s to say Jimmy Clausen’s face will fit with the new regime? It certainly didn’t fit with a lot of other team’s last April which is why he fell so much. I understand he wasn’t on Seattle’s draft board. Potentially there could be as many as 3-5 teams desperately hoping for a shot at the top two quarterbacks.

The Seahawks are not part of this projection as they’re taking a turn to be this week’s winners of the wide-open NFC West. If that happens, they’ll pick no later than 21st overall. Clearly in this situation it would be very difficult to get a shot at one of those two quarterbacks. I do believe it wouldn’t be unlikely this team would consider a bold move up the boards to have a shot at Locker or Luck – similar to what the New York Jets did to get Mark Sanchez. It’s important to remember though that the deal between NY and Cleveland in 2009 went through largely because Eric Mangini was prepared to accept less compensation in terms of picks to secure players he’d previously coached. Seattle would’t have that kind of luxury, meaning a more expensive return in terms of pure picks.

So what would be the alternatives for Seattle if they stayed put in this situation? I don’t think they’d consider Ryan Mallett, who I suspect will not go in round one due to character concerns. There would still be some value at cornerback, in this (early) projection Aaron Williams (CB, Texas) and Ras-I Dowling (CB, Virginia) are still available. It isn’t a particularly good tackle class, but prospects like Nate Solder (OT, Colorado), Joseph Barksdale (OT, LSU), Derek Sherrod (OT, Miss. State), Demarcus Love (OT, Arkansas) and Gabe Carimi (OT, Wisconsin) are players it may be worth monitoring as the year goes on if the Seahawks wish to add a book-end to Russell Okung with Sean Locklear’s impending free agency.

There would also be some possible value at receiver. I’m not convinced any of the ‘big names’ will go as early as originally expected because all have experienced issues this season. Julio Jones (WR, Alabama), Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) and Jonathan Baldwin (WR, Pittsburgh) fit the bill as big targets who can get downfield, but I suspect all would be second round picks in an overall deeper class. Ryan Broyles (WR, Oklahoma) is a smaller, more agile receiver featuring in a much more productive offense who could actually be the second wide-out taken after A.J. Green (WR, Georgia).

Whilst listing these names though, at least to me it just further emphasises the need at quarterback. There are other holes on the team and we can discuss how they can be filled, but none will hold the team back more than future question marks at QB. Matt Hasselbeck remains in a contract year having turned 35 in September. Charlie Whitehurst is only playing on a two-year deal – albeit an expensive one. Whether Hasselbeck plays another year or two or not – it’s still an area that has to be answered sooner rather than later. What is the direction of this team at QB post-Hasselbeck? If the draft plays out like this next April, it may be impossible to answer that question. If one of the top-two QB’s drop even the slightest bit, then you have to wonder if this team will make the kind of statement move the New York Jets managed to do in bringing in Mark Sanchez and quickly establishing themselves as a power-house in the AFC.

To see the latest Seahawks Draft Blog mock draft click here. Let me know whether you agree/disagree and what direction the Seahawks should go if they can’t get a shot at the top QB’s in round one. Leave your messages in the comments section or email rob@seahawksdraftblog.com

Jake Locker on form against Oregon State

I’ve been busy today and unable to get through a lot of the tape stashed from last night. I’ll have something on the blog tomorrow. A lot of people have been asking about Cam Newton (QB, Auburn) so I’ll have some thoughts on him. There are some red flags with Newton from his time with Florida that I’ll include here, but more on his game later.

One game I was able to watch part of last night was Washington’s win against Oregon State. Jake Locker passed for three touchdowns in regulation and a couple more in overtime. He went 21/35 for 285 yards and added a further 60 on the ground. He had a single interception and a fumble early on. Was it perfect? No. The critics will point to the way Locker has to get out of the pocket, his sometimes patchy decision making and lack of elite accuracy. What Locker did do was show off yet again his playmaking qualities and his ability to get the job done – which some have questioned.

With Andrew Luck on a bye week, this was a chance for Locker to show he’s still in the race to be the first QB taken next April. He took the chance with both hands. A lot of people think the Buffalo Bills will select first overall next year. They’re 0-5, play in a tough division and struggling badly. They’ll take a QB next year if they are picking first. As things stand today – I think they would take Locker over Luck for sure. Some thoughts as to why:

– Whether it should be a factor or not – their last great hope at QB (albeit as a third round pick) was Trent Edwards. He went to Stanford, like Andrew Luck. I’m sure they’ll analyse Luck separately and not base such a major decision on a factor like this. However, it’s not ridiculous to suggest it may linger in the decision making process, especially if two prospects are ranked closely on their board.

– Locker has a bigger arm and is more physically talented, something that might be crucial in the torrid Buffalo weather.

– Buffalo showed they’ll take playmakers with promise over steady, so-called ‘safer’ picks when they drafted C.J. Spiller.

But perhaps more importantly than anything I just think Locker has proved he’s capable of being the defining factor on his team. Both players are intelligent, hard-working types who are leaders in their respective programmes. I don’t think there’s much between the two in terms of accuracy (both not great) but Locker has the greater arm and is ahead as an overall athlete. It’s not Luck’s fault that he benefits from a strong running game and offensive line. Neither has he shown he can be ‘the star’. He doesn’t hold back Stanford, he helps them along. Locker wins games for Washington.

In a system like San Francisco with a more established run game and offensive line, Luck could have real success as a solid game-manager type. On a team looking for someone to launch a come-back, then I think they’ll go with the bigger playmaker with much greater potential upside. Maybe a bit riskier, but with potentially greater returns. Play to Locker’s strengths, let him develop in one system. Try and iron out the kinks or learn to live with them. I’m not sure Luck walks into Buffalo’s mess. At least Locker will come in and not be unfamiliar to the situation – trying to get the job done on a team without a loaded roster.

Of course the situation changes if Buffalo aren’t the first on the clock next April and there’s a lot of football to be played. However, as things stands today I believe Locker has done enough to get past that Nebraska performance and put himself very much back in the first overall discussion. When I write my next mock draft, there’ll be a change at #1.