The Bears are moving down to the #9 pick for the #61 pick this year, a first rounder in 2024 and a second rounder in 2025. They’re also acquiring receiver D.J. Moore.
Carolina gets the #1 pick. They also retain the #40 pick this year.
As noted in my updated mock draft this week, the Panthers trading up to #1 felt inevitable.
Owner David Tepper has been waiting to make an aggressive move at quarterback for some time. This is an aggressive move.
He tried and failed to trade for Matt Stafford. He wanted Deshaun Watson and couldn’t seal the deal. They’ve been muddling around since. Tepper was on the record saying he wanted ‘special’ at the position. Now, he and his franchise are going to get what they wanted.
So what does this mean?
Let’s run through it step-by-step…
Who are they going to take?
Tepper’s desire for ‘special’ is intriguing. I can’t imagine he’s making this move for a 5-10 quarterback, however highly rated Bryce Young is.
For me he’s moving up for C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson.
They are the two players who sparkled the brightest at the combine last weekend. They have the X-factor talent, charisma and personality.
My money’s on Stroud simply because he’s better placed to start immediately. Richardson needs time.
There were also enough moments in that game against Georgia to believe he has some Mahomes-esque quality to him. Stroud is a tremendous talent and he’d be joining a team with a good O-line and defense. Now, he needs some weapons.
The Panthers aren’t messing about. They hired an experienced offensive-minded coach. They’ve spent a fortune on their wider coaching staff. Now they’re going big for a quarterback.
Why didn’t the Colts move up?
With four good quarterbacks available, they had little reason to. GM Chris Ballard values picks. They were guaranteed a young signal caller, unlike Carolina. Reports earlier suggested they are ‘enamored’ with Will Levis, who could last to #4.
Unless there was one player they simply had to have, they weren’t going to sell the family silver to move up.
How does this impact the top-five?
Now that Chicago is out of the top-five, it’s extremely likely we’ll see three quarterbacks taken before Seattle’s pick.
The Panthers will take one and so will the Colts. The Texans are expected to — but I still think they’ll consider Will Anderson at #2. If not, Anderson will be taken at #3 by Arizona. If the top pass rusher isn’t available to the Cardinals, I think they’ll trade down with a team wanting to select the #2 quarterback.
How does this impact the Seahawks?
Sitting at #5 they are very likely to face a situation where three quarterbacks and Will Anderson are off the board.
As noted yesterday, I am very suspicious of Tyree Wilson’s fit in Seattle. He’s 6-5 and 271lbs. That’s not the size of an outside linebacker in the Seahawks’ scheme or a 3-4 defensive end. Wilson is perfect suited to play in a 4-3 defense as an edge rusher and I’m not convinced the Seahawks are going to take Wilson at #5.
Neither do I think they’ll consider Jalen Carter. When a team repeatedly says they focused on character a year ago ‘without compromise’ — and they attribute their successful class to that approach — it takes an enormous leap to think they’ll now renege on that and draft someone like Carter. The maturity and conditioning questions where bad enough. The legal trouble he now faces has upped the ante.
My prediction remains that the Seahawks are preparing for one of two things. Either an unlikely fall to #5 for Anderson, or they’ll take whichever quarterback is left of the golden four.
Geno Smith’s contract is almost tailor-made to select a QB at #5. His cap-hit is just $10.1m this year, with an out in 12 months time. It is perfectly designed. Smith himself is already embracing the possibility of Seattle taking a quarterback and is promising to help them as much as he can (while competing with them).
Unless Anderson falls, the defensive options at #5 simply don’t make sense. The options at #20 and #38 however, most certainly do. This is the range where plenty of defensive linemen are expected to go — Keion White, Calijah Kancey, Lukas Van Ness, Myles Murphy, Will McDonald, Adetomiwa Adebawore, Tuli Tuipulotu, Mazi Smith, Bryan Bresee, Drew Sanders and Nolan Smith. Possibly others too.
Taking whoever is left at #5 from the C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis group appears — to me at least — to be the most likely option. Or, if the Cardinals also trade out of the top-five, selecting Will Anderson instead.
So how will this play out?
In my latest mock I had Stroud, Anderson and Young going in the top-three, with Indianapolis and Seattle taking Levis and Richardson respectively.
In Mike Sando’s interesting ‘GM and Executives mock draft’ this week, he offered the following nugget:
Asked about Young and Stroud being the top two picks, an exec from a team picking lower in the top 10 hedged.
“I would say this: Will Anderson and the two quarterbacks in the top three,” he said.
I take this to mean there’s still a chance Anderson goes second overall, as noted in my mock. But the consensus seems to be that Stroud, Young and Anderson, one way or another, will be the first three picks.
I still wonder if Richardson has barged his way into that conversation post-combine, but we’ll see.
If it plays out that way, I would expect the Colts and Seahawks to divvy up Levis and Richardson between them.
And for all the talk of the flaws with each player, here’s a notable quote from John Schneider — appearing on 710 Seattle yesterday, being asked about how he scouts QB’s:
“You have to be able to project where they’re going. You just can’t look at here’s A, B and C and that’s part of their game, you have to be able to say here’s A, B and C — what’s it going to look like at X, Y and Z? Where are they going to be? That’s the study, that’s the art, that’s the projection that’s involved.”
Schneider has consistently shown he likes traits. The only player I can think of with similar traits to Levis and Richardson in the last 10 drafts is Josh Allen — a player Schneider was supposedly interested in.
If they take a quarterback at #5, they’ll have ample stock at #20, #38 and beyond to address defensive needs — where BPA and value could be strong.
This will be all the more telling if they focus on the defensive line early in free agency.
Will the Cardinals trade down?
Jason La Canfora is already suggesting so on Twitter. It’s funny — a lot of people want to hammer this excellent looking quarterback class. And yet the top-four could be the top-four quarterbacks. Funny that. It’s almost like they’re, you know, actually really talented.
I’ll believe this when I see it. Arizona needs two things badly. One — a pass rusher. Two — someone to change the culture of that team. Will Anderson addresses both issues emphatically.
Is the new Cardinals’ GM going to appoint Jonathan Gannon and then launch his tenure in Arizona slipping deeper into the top-10, waiting to see what’s left? Not giving his coach anything significant to work with on defense? I just don’t buy that. And it’ll be harder to get a haul dropping from #3 to #7, compared to Carolina jumping eight spots to #1.
I think they’ll take Anderson if he’s available and only trade down if Houston takes him at #2.
What will the Bears do at #9?
It’s not beyond the realms of possibility they convince themselves that taking Jalen Carter would be a good idea here. I think the addition of D.J. Moore, however, at least points to an acknowledgement that they can’t just ignore the offense as they rebuild their defense. Peter Skoronski and Darnell Wright would both be solid picks.
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Well, it’s not like anyone didn’t see this coming…
This
I think it would have been more shocking if they didn’t trade up.
Now the question becomes, are they going to tell the world who they are going to take? Or are we going to go a whole month of them playing the “oh we don’t know game.”
Undoubtedly they have a quarterback at the forefront but at the same time they still have time to make a more informed decision. My gut says it has to be Stroud in the lead
Yeah, I’m guessing Stroud or Levis.
Bears got a HAUL
🏈pick No. 9
🏈pick No. 61
🏈a first-round pick in 2024
🏈a second-round pick in 2025
🏈WR DJ Moore
That is not crazy to be honest.
I think the 2025 2nd would be a 1st and probably another 3rd or 4th thrown in without DJ Moore. Guessing Chicago wanted him bad for Fields.
Agree that’s nothing compared to recent moves up.
Feels like it’s worse than what Denver paid for their QB unless I’m totally undervaluing how good DJ Moore is.
Well I do think DJ Moore is really good. Thats why they didn’t trade him at the deadline when I am sure they were offered a first for him (and they were trading everyone).
Don’t forget to factor in the salary they then had to pay RW after the trade. The Panthers now get a potential star QB for a great salary.
DJ Moore is pretty fucking good — his contract is probably a bit much, but Chicago has more cap space than they can spend, they badly need WR talent, and he’s only 25.
I think this is a really good deal for them with a decent chance the 24 Carolina pick is again top 10ish unless they’re signing one of the bridge QBs.
The panthers also won’t have to pay their qb an immediate 245 million dollars
It’s pretty similar. When you look at it they’re basically spending two first round picks and two second round picks and a receiver to get their quarterback.
Including Moore makes that an incredible haul.
Is that a haul?
I think it’s good but not great.
Guess it depends on how you value DJ Moore. Without him, I’d guess they’d have gotten 2023 R1, 2023 R2, 2024 R1, 2024 R3, 2025 R1.
The Bears miss out on two tiers in a not-amazing draft.
At #9 the QBs and Will Anderson are long gone. Tyree as well. Maybe they take a tackle but there’s no cornerstone nailed-on 10 year guy there. They probably cannot trade down again and get great value like they could have with Seattle or Houston.
AT #61 a ton of the CBs, TEs and DE/DLs will likely be off the board.
The 2024 Panther pick in a poachable NFCS could be as low as mid-20’s (or admittedly a great pick if they do a Denver Flop).
A 2025 2nd round pick is like a current year 4th.
Moore I like a lot. l have no problem with him but $52m the next three years with $19m guaranteed is not ridiculous value.
Is that what you want to come away from the #1 pick in a QB rich draft with?
Again, it’s good. But not great.
My guess is Chicago wanted a legit WR for Fields to work with and had to have Moore, which gave Carolina some leverage. Without Moore I’m sure they get more draft capital that’s more great than good, but there’s some value in proven WR talent and $16M cap hits in 2024 & 2025 is pretty reasonable.
Im not sure if Bradberry is available for them but they could go for him and Joey Porter Jr and really make a nice secondary and probably still be able to focus on front 7 in FA and later draft.
Don’t forget that the Bears have about $75 million in cap space (after getting DJ Moore). They can afford to sign Orlando Brown away from the Chiefs. They can draft a right tackle or a CB with their first pick.
Forgot to mention that they can also take a chance on Jalen Carter if he falls to #9.
Bears are still in play for the best player in the draft if Carter falls to them.
Before the recent incident there was talk of Chicago taking him #1 overall. If they are able to still get Carter this is a coup for them, and getting a stud WR to help Fields is really the cherry on top.
Carolina’s 1st round pick next year will likely be in the top 18 and if it wasn’t for their terrible division it would easily be top 15. They seriously lack playmakers, who is their #1 QB going to throw to?
They have some money to spend in FA and are going with a rookie QB for the next few years, so will have more to spend. They also have the #40 pick and a third round pick.
They have a legit D-line and O-line, with some other defensive pieces.
They’ve appointed a loaded coaching staff, fronted by a very respectable and proven Head Coach.
Not sure I agree they are going to struggle next year. They are going to be a dangerous team IMO.
I agree with that their D line is very talented. The jury is still out on their O-line, to me they are middle of the road. They just don’t have any weapons on offense, and while I like Reich he had a much better defense, WR corps, and a great RB in Indy his teams consistently underperformed.
23.5 million currently in cap space(nearly a 1/3 of that will go to the #1 pick) and they need to add some weapons on offense. The Panthers saving grace is they play in a bad division and that may give them an extra win or two. Depending on how FA breaks down my $ is Chicago wins more games in 2023, just for the fact they have 3x the cap space available to spend.
They just free’d up cap space by extending Shaq Thompson
So they have ample funds to add a weapon or two
Plus they have pick #40 and a third rounder
And a great staff
They’ll be fine
That’s what I was thinking. My initial reaction was “that’s all?”
The Bears doing a sensible thing and getting a solid WR to work with Fields? That’s unexpected!
1. Panthers could have received a 1st for DJ Moore at the deadline and didn’t do it. Therefore you have to say he’s worth that IMO.
2. I wonder if the Bears want one of the TEs, so their thought is that despite living down two tiers, they can still be in the sweet spot for another Fields weapon.
3. In comparing this to the RW trade, don’t forget that the Broncos then had to pay RW. Now the Panthers get a potential star QB for 5 affordable years.
You have to expect Carolina to take the most ready-for-prime-time QB prospect, in their eyes. ie, not Richardson. Is it Young or Stroud? Yes I’m rooting for Richardson at 5 or 3. Also kind of relieved we won’t drain draft capital quite as much if we do trade up to the 3 instead of the 1.
Correct, Young or Stroud has gotta be the choice here. Too much risk with Richardson to make this aggressive of a move up.
I think they are going to value Stroud or Young here. They need someone to start right away. I doubt they take a project like Anthony Richardson.
How does the point value breakdown compared to the Wilson trade?
Wilson’s trade netted two more players.
None as good as Moore.
The RW trade also netted an enormous payday for the QB. Don’t forget to factor that in.
Fingers crossed the Panthers’ favourite QB is Bryce Young!
And that if he’s not, he’s Houston’s pick!
Which QB do you think Fitterer/Tepper/Reich like?
Gotta be stroud
Gotta be Stroud. You never know, but if you need to start a rookie QB week one and one who can potentially take you to the playoffs next year, that’s gotta be Stroud or Young. It’s possible that Levis and Richardson are the more impactful QBs 5 years from now, but who would gamble on that when you just gave up a bunch of picks and a very good WR? Miss on this pick and you potentially crater your franchise. The safer bets are going to lead the way here.
In my opinion, that’s clearly Stroud.
Which QB seems most ready to start day 1 in your opinion Rob?
Replying to Kuya too, but Rob mocked this trade yesterday and picked Stroud to Carolina.
Good call. Levis also is a possibility for #1 because he can start day 1 IMO.
The aftermath of Young’s pro day will be interesting. Right now I’d put money on Stroud going number 1.
Agree
I think it’s either Bryce Young or CJ Stroud.
Maybe, maybe they go Anthony Richardson, maybe someone in the office is nostalgic for Cam Newton 2.0 or something given his size and athleticism, but I think overall it’ll be Stroud.
Carolina is a great place for any of the QBs.
Carolina has the good memories of Cam, but also the bad. It could be compared to Seattle having a short QB and not wanting Young. I think they do not pick AR.
Weren’t there Carolina-Levis connections at one point? I have a hard time seeing Carolina doing this for Richardson. They need someone to come in day 1, and as much as I love Richardson that’s not him. Especially if you’re giving away his #1 weapon. Has to be one of the other 3.
I don’t recall seeing that, only the IND connection to Levis
I think the connection you’re referring to is that Fitterer knows that JS likes traits and was scouting Levis hard, similar to how he scouted Mahomes & Allen. Levis also would be able to start day 1 under the tutelage of Reich, same for Stroud.
Reich worked with Wentz (twice), Luck, Rivers (twice), Nick Foles, Jacoby Brissett, and Matt Ryan. These match the profiles of Levis or Stroud, not AR or Young.
Well that happened sooner than I expected. Pretty much just leaves Arizona as the only question mark in top 4.
Rob with the Senior Bowl & Combine done, & now the Carolina trade; Any chance you could See Houston moving from 12 to 3.
So they could come away with Anderson & their QB..
I wonder if Houston doubles down on DL.
Rob made a good point about DeMeco Ryans wanting to build a DL in the San Francisco mold. He may go with Anderson at #2 and get Carter at #12 if he drops that far. Ryans is a former team Captain and may think he can get the most out of Carter, especially if he has a high character guy in Anderson to help. Total speculation on my part though.
If that happens I think there’s a real chance that Arizona trades out of the three spot. I really want to avoid the Raiders moving up to #3
Agreed … and it looks like it’s going to happen. Seahawks will need to move up to #2 for a QB or be ok with Anderson.
From 10 minutes ago Twitter:
@JasonLaCanfora
Stage is set for QBs to go 1, 2, 3, 4 as I wrote about this week . The Cardinals will auction off third overall – that could happen sooner rather than later – with the Texans (2nd) and Colts (4th) all-in for QBs. Unless they explored Lamar Jackson.
I’ll believe it when I see it
But if that happens, the Seahawks will take Anderson
But the Cardinals are not going to pass-up a culture setter like Anderson and a much, much, much, much needed pass rusher
To be fair, I don’t know how reliable LaCanfora is and if he’s just tooting his own horn here.
I’m hoping you’re right that Levis and Richardson are there when the Colts go on the clock. Anderson has all the positives you’ve talked about, but a young QB makes me so much more excited. Yay fandom!
If there’s one team the Cards would absolutely love to trade down with, it’s the Seahawks. As long as the Seahawks assure them they are taking a QB. AZ trades down, gains pick #37, and gets their guy at #5 anyway. You might think they wont trade with a division opponent, but if they stay put the Seahawks can get a QB anyway.
Does it make sense for the Seahawks? Only if they absolutely have to have the third QB on the board and don’t want the other guy. They might give up pick #37 to make sure. It also eliminates the possibility of another team trading in and QBs going 1-4. It’s not likely, but if the Seahawks really want a certain QB, it could happen.
The opposite is true.
Not sure why we keep talking about this
Arizona’s new GM is NOT going to kick off his tenure by gifting a division rival a franchise QB
He’d be absolutely crucified if Seattle hit on the pick. It would define his entire career.
Please, let’s stop with this
I think what the poster is trying to say is that by taking Anderson AZ is essentially gifting us the QB whether we trade with them or not. So he is saying they may as well take the draft capital as well
But you’re not letting the Seahawks jump the Colts! That’s the point
Nevermind… this has been covered ad nauseam
That would be a dream scenario for me. It would guarantee us one of the top 3.
Here’s hoping your double dip on defense happens.
I believe this is the anniversary of the Jimmy Graham trade. Maybe it’s the day that big deals go down? 🙂
My Anthony Richardson fantasy is over…
Feels like the odds would be against them taking Richardson. If you’re making that big of a bet, I think you’re targeting as close to a sure thing as you can find. Young or Stroud would have the best odds IMO.
If reports out of the combine are correct my guess is they may want to jump the Texans to grab Bryce Young.
This is my assumption too. Also explains why Young didn’t participate in the combine. His people probably knew he didn’t have to.
Great point Cysco
Does Young now skip the pro day?
Wow, didn’t think of this. That’s certainly possible. But then why bulk up and weigh in?
So 5, 83, 2024 #1, 2025 #2, and dee eskridge would’ve done it? 😂
No way they want Dee
😀
Does anyone?
At this point, it’s down to his girlfriend and his mama.
Metcalf?
I think Stroud goes #1. I still believe Young goes #2.
Then the bidding war might start for Anthony Richardson. But I only see the Raiders, Titans, and maybe the Falcons as possible suitors.
I predict the Raiders or Titans move up to #3 to nab either Richardson or Levis. If the Cardinals stay then I think Anderson is the pick. There are rumblings though that they really like Wilson.
Yes I agree. I think this tells the Cards that the haul will be dramatically different by trading down a few more spots.
It is sort of shaping up for the Seahawks to select Richardson. The Colts need a QB to start right away too.
I also wonder if the Bears know Carter is dropping and planning to select him at #9. But they might take one of the OTs predicted to be there.
Lost in the trade stuff, the Geno salary cap info came out too. Numbers below don’t include those incentives we were talking about.
23: $10M
24: $31M
25: $34M
https://overthecap.com/player/geno-smith/2249
“Geno Smith signed a three year, $75 million contract with the Seahawks. Smith received $40 million in guarantees of which $27.3 million is guaranteed at signing. If on the roster on the 5th day of the waiver period in 2024, Smith’s 2024 salary will be guaranteed. If on the roster on the 5th day of the 2024 league year Smith will earn a $9.6 million roster bonus. On the 5th day of the 2025 league year a $10 million roster bonus is available. The contract contains $30 million in roster bonus escalators that can increase the value of the contract to $105 million. To earn the escalators Smith must achieve the same stats and team performance as 2022 per PFF’s Brad Spielberger.”
oh my god finally! so looking at this, if they cut him after this year it looks like they would be on hook for 17.4 mil dead cap, and if they cut him after year after it would be 8.7 mil. not bad, i thought I read somewhere about that they cut could him after 1 year with no dead money but overthecap doesn’t read like that is the reality
So in summary this looks like a most likely 2 year deal, 10 mil cap hit then 31 mil cap hit, and cut him after that with only 8.7 mil dead cap saving 25 mil cap year 3.
They could get out of the contract after 1 year but would be saddled with a hefty dead cap hit of 17.4 mil. So I think its safe to say Geno will be on the team next 2 years, 1 as starter, then 1 competing with whoever they draft, then gone year 3.
This would give geno an avg earned per year of about 25 mil, assuming he is on the team 2 years. That is paying about half the going rate for a QB at the top. Well done JS/PC, this really I would say dictates we draft a QB, as its pretty unlikely he makes that third year.
I’m still worried about my Nightmare scenario from a month ago. Was Carolina to #1 & Raiders to #3. All QBs gone.
I’ll be hoping Houston shocks everyone and trades from #12 to #3 & takes Anderson with their QB.
Arizona now controls our draft in my opinion.
If “worst case” is that Seattle ends up with Will Anderson, I can live with that.
Great point. Never expected to be at #5; so definitely tough to be upset with a guy who many project as #1.
The Geno contract structure also makes it easier to handle sitting back and waiting. We have the QB situation settled if none there and still are happy.
Loving the Geno contract more and more.
Getting Anderson would be a wonderful “consolation prize”.
However, I would still be very disappointed not to get a QB at #5.
It’s very unlikely that we will be in the position to draft this high again, with this much draft ammo, anytime soon.
Yup, plus there are a lot of qbs they can take outside the top 4 to draft and develop…
It would be very reassuring to find out JS has a Hooker, DTR, Haener, Tune, etc crush. Using 5 and 20 on Anderson and Mazi Smith or Ade would be a great start to the draft.
I can’t imagine he’d have a crush on them
I’m not gonna rule it out. I can see them being interested in Hooker, DTR and possibly Tune. Word is DTR is moving up. If Hooker is a 2nd rounder where would he have gone without the knee injury? We know JS liked Mahomes and Allen but one time he targeted a QB in the third round and the rest was history.
Hooker isn’t a second rounder. He’s not ‘bad’ but he is incredibly overrated. Wide open offense. It was piss easy for him at times last year. Good character. Good athlete. Big hands. Not great deep accuracy. Will find it far harder outside of the Tennessee system. Already 25 and injured.
None of these QB’s have the physical tools that JS would ‘crush’ over.
Yeah. I think the Seahawks know they are in a really good spot. They can come away with one of the QBs or Anderson.
Then they can nab a QB later in the draft if they lose out. I don’t think they view it as QB or bust.
Love to see it. The Bears seem to think that Justin Fields is a good quarterback well Carolina just traded with their future for an Ohio State quarterback which has never worked out in history of the league or Tiny Bryce. let’s go NFC
They could easily be wanting to grab young who other than his size seems like the ‘safest’ or highest floor QB in the draft. if his body holds up its hard not to imagine him having success in the league
The argument that Stroud won’t succeed just because he came from Ohio St is so lazy. What do other people have to do with him? He’s nothing like any of the previous Ohio St QBs anyways
To a degree, I buy the idea that certain schools make QBs look better than they are. Some can transcend the system and surrounding talent at the next level, some can’t. Jury is still out on Fields, but you can’t call him a bust. He is still poor at reading a D to my eye and locks on to his first option and one side of the field way too much as he did in college, but he has that X-factor breakaway speed that makes up for it. Time will tell.
If you dismissed QB prospects based on the school and system they came out of, then you would have also readily dismissed Patrick Mahomes. The knock on him was that he came out of Texas Tech and the air raid and all that and was no lock to be able to be anything special at the next level. At some point, you have to believe what your eyes see and your gut tells you.
CJ Stroud looked like a wet dream at the combine, to my old eyes. Not the biggest arm, not the guy who’s gonna scramble for 40 yards on a busted play, but the touch and accuracy of his passes at the combine, in tandem with the guts and creativity he showed vs. Georgia in the playoff tell me that he is 100% legit. If he falls to us at #5, I would be STOKED. But he most likely won’t.
I can see the top of the draft happening like this:
1) CAR: Stroud or Levis
2) HOU: Will A or Young
3a) AZ: Will A (if available) or
3b) LV: Young (if HOU doesn’t pick Young)
4) IND: Levis
5) SEA: AR
6) DET: Jalen Carter
7) AZ: Tyree Wilson
8) ATL: Bijan Robinson
9) CHI: Skoronski
10) PHI: Christian Gonzalez
You need a boat with all those “or’s”. I’ll show myself out.
Haha, “or” else
/facepalm
If you dont, I’m sure someone here would be willing to sea you out
This is what I would go with
I think its for Stroud. The QB coach there spoke very highly of Stroud before he eventually got that job. Compared him to Joe Burrow
How does it feel to be a wizard, Rob?
We really need the cardinals to fall in love with Will Anderson. Probably a good chance QBs go 1,2,3. If ARI wants Anderson, good shot they can have him. If they value the trade stock, well, QBs will go 1-4 and Anderson will be a Seahawk.
agree…and maybe they’re thinking a little like us, that with Kyler still young and some other core guys, they also do not expect to be picking in the top-5 again in the near future, and here’s a chance to get the best defensive player in the draft.
As someone said upthread, it depends on how you (or more specifically, Chicago) values DJ Moore in the trade, but overall this is a price Seattle could have clearly beaten. Nobody should say that down the road that PCJS couldn’t have made this move or that they were “set at QB with Geno” as if they didn’t have total flexibility on whether to pay him or not.
They’ve placed a huge, legacy-defining bet with their actions the past few days, risking an extended stay in QB purgatory when they had the opportunity to mirror the Russ trade by muscling up for the QB1 and setting up the next generation of ball.
I’d have done this trade in a heartbeat for Stroud. Feels to me like we traded our birthright for a mess of pottage.
I think you have to consider that Chicago may have made having a legit WR in the trade package necessary, which makes it even more true that Seattle could have beaten the offer, but I’m not including Lockett or DK in a trade.
It’s not called the fluffy price. It’s the iron price.
It’s pretty well stated Camb.
I wouldn’t give up dk or Lockett.
But I would call Houston. Any thing near reason that gets it done and oesbt cost future picks I’d do.
Next year lots of cap. Regular picks. And qbotf on the roster.
*edit* and does not cost any future picks.
It will definitely be interesting looking back 5 years from now. As you stated. This year/draft is a defining moment
I’ll say this should dash hopes fans have of infinite first round picks for those looking for Seattle to trade down at five.
Carolina got a great deal and I think with Stroud they may have just taken Chicago. NFC South and they already have a nearly decent to good team….watch them be us next year and give the bears a pick in the early 20’s.
It just doesn’t feel good they could come out of this with no QB to fuel our rebuild. I think today’s news is not good for the Hawks. Hooker, Haener, or Stennett = ugh
I think it’ll be fine.
Texans pick young or levis.
Arizona goes Anderson.
Indy goes young or levis.
We get AR.
I’d watch out for raiders and detroit.
What’s stopping Indy from giving Arizona their R2 pick to make sure LV doesn’t get their guy?
It’s a win for Arizona because they still get Anderson while picking up another high R2, and Indy gets their QB, not the leftover.
Points wise it’s a bit lopsided in favor of Arizona so maybe they swap 96 and 106 to even it out.
I don’t know that Indy will want to watch LV leapfrog them
They might have more than one guy
There goes the neighborhood.
Hawks have got to trade up to guarantee they get their guy.
And I believe, given the impending sale, Hawks take a QB for maximum franchise value.
Based on the trade value chart, do the Hawks only give up #5 + #37 to get to #3??
If so it’s not a high price to pay and they could trade back at #20 to recoup picks?!
I’d be fine with 5 and 20. It’s still a first round pick and keep the rest.
And I love the talent at 20. But if I could get the qbotf with the iron price and cry ince and not have to deal any future pick nonsense at a later date…sign up.
It’s funny I remember last year everyone thought QBs (Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, Kenny Picket etc) would go top 10 and only Pickett went at 20. Highly unlikely we see 4 QBs go in top 4.
Nobody on this blog thought that
How often is a QB “good” in their rookie year?
How often is an edge good ? Hardly ever right? Seems like these two position takes 2-3 years before they start to “get it”. I’m guessing all 4 will need a bridge QB.
Seems like O-line, corners, RB’s and most every position is easier than QB, and edge to be able to hang in there as a starter,
And these are the 2 spots needed by many teams. Seems we have a lot of second and third year edges that are about to blossom, like Taylor, Mafe, Robertson, etc- so I wonder if they’re still gunna pick Carter, because Carroll truly fancies himself a “fixer” for young men that are a touch astray… And a dominating run stuffer is perhaps one of the rarest players to get-
Yea yea yea, I know you all are fully on board with Robs assessment of the guy, but it just feels like something the Hawks would do…
I’d call the Cardinals if Anderson is still available after Houston picks, and I believe he will be.
“Let’s swap picks, we’ll throw in a third, you still get Anderson.”
Seattle takes the guy they want, Indy takes what’s left.
Also, if I were a Bears fan, this trade would really piss me off – they got a very disappointing return with weeks to go. The price would’ve only gone higher.
It’s not Robs assessment.
It’s the league assesment….many mocks have adjusted for a Carter drop.
And frankly I’ve been pretty low on Carter before “robs assessment.”
He’s not a run stuffing tackling machine. Strangely that’s Tyree Wilson.
Also not for nothing nearly all top dtackles take between 2-4 years to get going. With three years being the average.
He’s not gone astray.
He’s actually kind of lazy.
And makes terrible decisions.
Eventually I’ll have explained my rationale on why Seattle won’t draft Carter enough, that I won’t have to say it again and again
Just listen to what they’re telling you
They’ve spelt it out
Just reprint your Malik McDowell post from a few years ago and get AI to replace mcdowells name with carter.
Agree. Unfortunately he is EXACTLY the type of talent they’ve been craving on their defensive line.
So is keion white, mazi smith, Clancy (short arms but actually productive,)
And quite a few more with either freaky or bear freaky testing which btw we still don’t know carter’s numbers, none if the b.s., and actually play more than him.
Based on talent alone, give me Carter all day over those guys.
🤷♂️
Too bad he has maturity issues, conditioning issues and has been charged with racing in an incident that left two people dead
I know I’ll get push back.
And I’ve actually seen it so I’m not dismissing it. But when I think of talent I want to see it down after down.
And I just see flashes. I’ve never seen a takeover game.
100% agree with you Peter. No doubt he has talent. He also takes plays off and has major baggage. I do not think the Hawks touch him even if he drops to 20.
We are going to get a QB or Anderson. Which is awesome. Thank goodness we aren’t at #6…
Carter is not an every down player and I doubt he ever will be. I didn’t even notice him in the BCS games. And when will we see his combine numbers? Maybe never! Any other year and he would be a second rounder at best.
Oh I get it, I’m just afraid the Hawks will be unable to stop themselves-
It’s like a jelly filled donut in front of a diabetic- the desire overtakes the sensibilities
And unfortunately, I know this scenario all too well…
Sounds like your frustrated Rob and I feeling the same. I’ve heard every damn scenario about pick 5 and these QBs a lot it the same thing over and over. We need to change it going in depth to find those value picks in later part of the draft. I like to everyone here come up with 2 players from 4th round on. Believe me I’ll go digging for more info. I need a break from the Seahawk QB stuff.
I am a bit frustrated to be honest
Frustrated that this fan base can’t go five minutes without having to pick sides over something. Running backs don’t matter, let Russ cook, whether the Wilson trade rumours are legit, Carroll, now it’s the most ridiculous one of the lot. Fans are split between those open minded about drafting a QB and people who for whatever reason can’t even bring themselves to contemplate it.
I’ve spent most of the day being asked whether Arizona’s new GM will kindly let Seattle draft the franchise QB they want as his first act in the job, and began the day with someone telling me there’s no chance Carolina trades up.
I wish we could just enjoy this time
Could you give me 2 names of players that you looked for 198 and 237 so I can go look at them?
Sure. Parker washington wr. Second coming of Doug Baldwin
Thanks for input. My mock draft farther down I have him in the 4th round and even talk a little more what he can bring to team as a return specialist.
Hey Rob
You think there’s a chance the Texans or Cards would trade down with us for say this year’s two 1sts?
I would hate to miss out on Levis or A Rich. Seems inevitable Stroud is no 1 now .
Dropping from 3 to 5 is really starting to sting
How high are the Seahawks on Bryce Young? If he is the QB available at the 5th pick (AR, Stroud, Levi’s and Anderson are gone), do the Seahawks take Young or trade down?
We’re not gonna know until his pro day. Him not throwing at the combine was a big deal. Stroud moved up to potential #1 in a big way between the way he threw with such great touch there and the gutty performance he put up in the playoff.
Young came in a little bigger than expected, albeit probably with a bladder full of Gatorade and a whole tri-tip in his guts, and his college tape is truly excellent. Than again, he was surrounded by amazing talent and the best coaching staff in CFB so hard to read those tea leaves. At the end of the day, he’s small. He could be Drew Brees 2.0 fairly easily, could also be a good-but-not great game manager. He seems to check the character and leadership boxes in a major way though, has a Heisman on his CV, so I get where a lot of teams will overlook the size factor.
I am certain Carolin made this deal thinking Stroud, but it’s entirely possible that if Young drops jaws at his pro day, Carolina sends that pick in.
Great, that way Baltimore can draft Richardson 🙄
I agree I don’t think Indy’s gonna want to take QB4. I just have a hard time thinking they’d give up 2 R1s and $40m+ in cap space instead of just moving up one spot.
Checks author of quote……. -PFEW! OK, Daniel Jeremiah. Cool. 0% chance of it happening.
As if the Colts are trading for Lamar Jackson
A waste of time tweeting that
Almost as bad as his ‘buddies in the league’ report last year saying Deshaun Watson to Seattle
First of all it might not be the fourth best qb in the class.
I think they are all good for different reasons. But qb and fit are huge in their development.
But Anderson could be in the mix. So that could be the third qb.
And of course some team could easily view the qbs in some other order then simple 1,2,3,4 evaluation.
Meaning why aren’t you DJ and he’s writing Baltimore draft blog…
Apparently, the 49ers are interested in making a deal for Lamar. Please Lord, no.
https://www.si.com/nfl/cardinals/analysis/lamar-jackson-could-head-nfc-west
Let them do it
It’ll be a right laugh
They could laugh their ass to a Super Bowl with that guy, Rob. . A nightmare for the FO for sure, but if other teams have to contend with Lamar, CMC, Deebo, Kittle, Aiyuk for four downs before that salty D rolls out there… good grief. I don’t know what they’d have to give up to do it, probably all their comp picks + next year capital as well and a throw in player like maybe Eli Mitchell, then put themselves in cap hell for the latter half of the 2020’s, but put me in the camp that says I DO NOT want Lamar Jackson playing for SF.
It seems akin to the gamble the Rams made with Stafford when they knew they had an elite D, except Lamar is much more dangerous and is 26 years old.
Well the way I see it this is kind of win win for Seattle at this point we know we’re getting a chance to draft one of the top 4 QBs or will Anderson although I don’t think Anderson will be available to us but still we have a great situation ahead of us
That’s basically the place we’ve found ourselves in. The consensus says there are five “top of the draft” type players this year. We’re drafting #5.
So unless Pete is going to strap on his Nike’s and break his hip running the pick up to the podium, we’re guaranteed the last of the “Elite Five”.
If I’m JS I’m going on vacation with my out of office message being “Call me when they’re on pick 15 or so.”
I’ve been thinking Rob’s short mock. I also wanted to try out pick 237. I traded 20 and a 2024 3rd rounder for 26 and 58. Then I got cute trading up 26 and 58 for the Bengals 28, 60, and 92. Keion White went at 27 but the draft turned out pretty good.
5 Anthony Richardson QB
28 Darnell Washington TE
37 Drew Sanders LB
52 Mazi Smith NT
60 Luke Wyler C
83 Bryon Young RDE
92 Parker Washington WR
123 Nick Broeker G
151 Garett Williams CB
154 Chris Rodriguez jr RB
198 Karl Brooks DT
237 Kobe Turner
There are lots of needs for Seattle in a cap he’ll season so I alright with 12 picks. My hope is those that don’t make the roster that they make the practice squad.
I think Darnell Washington is too high.
Comps to Gronk are nice. But gronk was miles ahead of him in production.
He’s a junior with 2 college championship, his ability scores and size are off the charts not mention his drills at the combine, and he was the 3rd TE taken.
Rob mock him at 30 in his last mock would you say the same thing to him
Yes I would.
Rob and I don’t agree on everything.
I think Washington is a great player.
Most likely I’m wrong. But…..just like Rob I’ve crunched the numbers on where players like him get drafted and on this we come away with different outcomes.
There are some great athletes in this draft at TE. Alternately there are some great TE’s like Mayer who aren’t great athletes.
The way I read it is more often the productive TE’s go in the first round.
Make of that what you will. I will say per your mock not that many TE’s go early.
This the most talents TE class I’ve ever seen. He made all the other TE look like boys on the sled drill. Seattle drafts blocking TE it’s been their history. I’m not worried about his caughting the ball with perfect control in gauntlet drill and his 28 receptions at 16.2 yard average better than Kelce 24 when he got drafted. If you watch Seattle closely last year Fant disappeared when when Dizzley got hurt because he can’t block. Guys like this don’t come around very often.
Great blocker and showed amazing hands and testing at the combine. Mid-to-late first rounder is an easy call. If he drops to Day 2, big score for someone.
He made all the other TEs look like boys on the sled drill. The gauntlet he ran straight, engulfed the football with 11” hands away from his body. TE really get the respect they deserve. They have run block like OL, run into flat caught the ball and run like a RB, and last run post and seem roughed catching the ball like WR. I really don’t know what he could have done better at the combine. This isn’t Graham who they traded a 1st round pick and an all pro C for.
Oh hell, I’m going ramble about value picks in the later part of draft because bored. I look a what these guys strengths can do for Seattle
Parker Washington is a unique slot WR and a return specialist. He doesn’t have the height or flat out speed to play the edge. He’s elusive with great field vision and 4.49 speed. He fearless crossing middle catching the and then he becomes a RB. 5’11” at 207lbs. In Shane Waldron scheme this perfect for those WR end sweeps.
Nick Broeker we know about him I did move him up from 5th round injury to a guard higher up.
Garrett Williams had a crazy 1st year in college and was going great in 2nd year until he tore ACL. He didn’t start the 3rd year but when he got back on field ball out like before. He not afraid to tackle and he can play the nickel back slot.
Chris Rodriguez has the size and physicality Seattle likes all comfirmed by Rob in an early mock draft. He had 2 great years and they wheels fell off. His numbers drop because Kentucky’s offensive line suck and everyone knows this if watched they were watching Will Levis run for his life.
Karl’s Brooks showed pretty well at senior bowl and might not even make here. There something to about being slippery and slipping through gaps. Rob had him as a 4th round talent. I’m hoping he flys under the radar.
Kobie Turner he’s a DT that a scout wrote an article speak highly about him. He’s absolutely under the radar when the mock simulator has you in the 670 range. He has the size of 3tech and a better attitude than Jalen Carter hehe. I’m done for now and I said enough.
OkeeDoke. Someone tell me Will Anderson won’t be Aaron Curry at the next level..? I’ll ask the dumb questions. He’s not a coverage LB, he’s your average size/speed, he get’s attention, but mostly all of his production is being unaccounted for and untouched.
Thanks
That is my fear as well. That he won’t be very productive and we missed out on a qb.
Sort of off topic given the big news today but I have always been a huge fan of Darius Slay. Just seen that he has been asked to look around for a trade. His cap hit is brutally high this year, but is there a way to restructure the deal to make it worth while for Seattle? He seems to be good friends with Diggs and by all accounts is a high character individual, a strong leader, and is still playing at a high. I think he would be a big addition to our very young CB group.
I guess my 2 questions would be;
1. Is there a way to drive that cap hit down by restructuring or extending?
2. What would be a number that would make sense for Seattle?
Seattle needs to talk Arizona into trading down to 5 if Anderson is available at 3. Seattle can then take the third QB, and because Indy will likely then take the fourth QB, Az at pick 5 would still get Anderson.
Everybody wins–except Indy.
Seattle could even tie the pick haul to be less if Anderson is not picked by Indy, if the league allows it.
No freaking way if the first two picks are qbs Seattle should allow AZ to trade with another QB needy team or allow Indy to snatch the third QB right in front of them.
They HAVE to trade up to 3….
Putting the division rivalry aside, I think you could only execute this trade on draft day because you would have to know who the first two picks are.
Deal collapses if Houston picks Anderson or Seattle only likes the two QBs already picked.
Yes, exactly.
Agreed everybody wins.
Just the division rivalry that clouds things
This is my line of reasoning as well. I think this only works on a draft day deal and if Anderson slips past Houston. I would also consider trying to trade spots with Houston.
I don’t think AZ would turn down a Seattle offer based on division. They’re not going to pass on making themselves richer. The problem to me would be indy. Do they value the 4th QB on their list enough to take at 4? Because if they don’t, who is to say they don’t trade out or take Anderson themselves. I don’t AZ could risk that.
The Panthers now control the Draft but could opt to Trade down and recoup some picks. Interesting which QB they also like / which QB a Team in the Top5 is willing to trade up for.
https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/1634337713598939136?s=20
He is also saying that they are leaning towards CJ Stroud.
Rob wrote, “With four good quarterbacks available, they had little reason to. GM Chris Ballard values picks. They were guaranteed a young signal caller, unlike Carolina. Reports earlier suggested they are ‘enamored’ with Will Levis, who could last to #4.
Unless there was one player they simply had to have, they weren’t going to sell the family silver to move up.”
I, too, suspect the involvement of The Home Boy Shopping Network.
Assuming we get AR or Levis at 5 and at 20 do we set Seahawk Twitter off with a pick of M Mayer or Bijan if they’re available?
Mayer is my dream pick at 20 if he falls to that. Just seems like the type of guy who’s going to work hard and succeed.
However fun that would be, I just can’t see them going offense with both first round picks. #5 is a luxury, but the rest of our picks need to start building out the roster. There will be some real solid DL options at 20. I just can’t see them going luxury picks with both firsts.
Slightest of counter, while a actually agree with you,
They could in that scenario still go dline, lb/cb, then center with the next picks.
They could, but it all depends on how you view the defensive options. If you look at Rob’s latest mock (which I think is very feasible) You’ll have a few names like:
White
Branch
Kancey
Van Ness
Ade Ade
McDonald
IMO that’s a very good group of defensive options that are worthy of a mid-first round grade. The options after those guys go between picks 20-30 get less intriguing real fast. Whereas the options at TE are still prettying interesting well into the second round.
I love all that talent.
And I’m very intrigued by te’s later. I just think Seattle is a weird team.
Yea, let’s get a TE4 who won’t even see the field. Over a RB 2 (at least) that could make us the best rushing attack in the league. #facepalm
Richardson is fun water-cooler talk, but the first four picks will be QBs. Arizona takes Anderson, or they trade with the Raiders/Falcons, draft Wilson and add at least a R1 next year and a R2 this year and next. Those three additional draft picks will make it a no-brainer for the Cards. The Seahawks can start printing Will Anderson’s jersey now.
Counter – The benchmark for what it takes to move up in this draft has been set. ARI isn’t getting more than CHI did for #1. The offer for for #3 won’t be so much that the Cardinals look past their glaring need for a defense I’ve star just for a future first or second.
As Rob pointed out in his article, Anderson would be a dream pick for the Cardinals as they start their rebuild. Just don’t see them getting cute with that pick.
Totally agree. Get ready to face Will Anderson at least twice a year, 12s.
What if the Panthers really like Bryce Young? He’s been QB1 in this draft for quite a while according to most of the media. I know the combine is fresh in everyone’s minds, but I’m sure Young’s pro day is going to be fantastic as well. So what if Reich believes that Young is the man?
And lets say Houston has a different take on things – they’re willing to roll with Davis Mills (or Jimmy G) for a season while they develop…Anthony Richardson. Maybe they see the huge upside with AR and can’t resist.
Arizona would be thrilled and run to the podium to draft Will Anderson.
Now Indy is sitting there choosing between Stroud & Levis. Multiple reports have already surfaced that they like Levis and believe he can start on day 1.
That leaves the Seahawks at #5 and Stroud!
CAR
1. Bryce Young – QB Alabama
HOU
2. Anthony Richardson – QB Florida
ARI
3. Will Anderson Jr. – EDGE Alabama
IND
4. Will Levis – QB Kentucky
SEA
5. C.J. Stroud – QB Ohio State
I like your optimism.
But Houston has no bridge for richardson.
For now, they could sign Jimmy G.
Would be a great move.
Yes, please!
This could happen. Feels like AR should be naturally there for us at #5, but I’d be elated if we got Stroud without having to give up any capital. He’s not the dual-threat that AR can be, but he’s like a bigger Bryce Young with the way he guts it out when it matters, and his arm is live enough. The touch and location on his passes at the combine were beautiful. Seems to know instinctually how much mustard and air to put on any given ball. When you can do that, the fact that you can’t break off and run for 25 yards doesn’t matter as much.
That would delight me. I think Stroud will go to the team that needs him to play as soon as possible. That’s not the Hawks.
Otherwise, i figure that the only way we miss out on one of the Big 4 is if Arizona trades down. Which is very possible, depending on how desperate, or generous, the Raiders et al. are feeling. Because Arizona needs a lot of help.
Damn.
First I had to watch Denver games and hold the fate in the hands of San Diego to not do chargers things.
Plus I had indy out there just making a mockery of things.
Now I’m also gone from ambivalent to kind of pissed Carter has possibly/probably moved himself out of the top five for a team like Houston or AZ…..
I’m just not buying the idea that Richardson is gonna make it to #5.
We’re talking about quite possibly the rarest athlete to ever play QB. The next Mike Vick, Cam Newton or Josh Allen. How in the world are four teams going to pass on that?
I would love to believe it, but I just think he’s absolutely everything every NFL team wants right now. A bonafide superstar, face-of-the-league type. Even if he’s raw, he’ll sell out stadiums every week.
He could go #1
I feel like he would have a very hard time succeeding if he’s thrust into Carolinas offense day 1 and expected to ball out. They lack weapons. Solid running game and online tho
Oline*
He could, and I would give Tepper and crew big credit for putting their collective balls out there to move up to #1 to get him when they could have given less to go to #3. They have a guy they love and are now guranteed to take him, whoever it is.
If it happens, we better hope Stroud or Levis somehow fall to #5. I’m trying to get comfortable with the idea that we’ll have our choice of Bryce Young or Will Anderson and I’m not there yet. Pants are still too tight in the crotch.
I’m glass half full no matter what.
The Hawks will get a QB or Will Anderson. That’s just incredible to me.
Imagine sitting in front of your TV in 2021, watching Anderson play, all while knowing in two years he would be a Seahawk. You wouldn’t be able to stop grinning. I’m more than happy to have that type of person lead this defense for many, many years.
So, win-win for this franchise. There really is no downside to this.
All that being said, I hope they trade up to grab their guy, no matter who it is.
💯❗️
I’m a lil afraid of Young dropping. Maybe I’ll be wrong. He’s just the one guy I really wouldn’t want to build a team around.
4 QBs and Anderson.
I know that sounds nice with us sitting at 5, but I genuinely wonder if they see it that way and we end up with none of them because the QBs they wanted are gone along with their #1 defensive choice.
Even if you don’t Levis, I’d still take take a shot on his potential, but they might feel like it’s not worth it. And with Carter likely not being a viable option at 5, I feel like I’m in for disappointment with the first pick.
Here’s the thing though: if that is the case and there is a qb or 2 that they know they have to come away with, I think Schneider will go get him. Him and Pete have both said how rare picking in the top 5 is for them and we know that they are watching the quarterback situation in the draft.
If there is one thing that Schneider is king of, it is trading up for who he wants. Those are his best picks: DK, Lockette, Taylor has been the only bright spot on the d-line for quite a few stretches (Barton doesn’t count, every king needs a jester).
They changed their strategy last year and since then Pete and John and operated differently and the team feels different. They feel excited. I would say it might be 50/50 on trading up.
Great Job for all of the fantastic work as always Rob!
Now that a QB is very likely to go #1, #2, and #4 – if the Cardinals really want Will Anderson but also want to move down to acquire more stock – trading down with Seattle makes a ton of sense right? The Cardinals would get their guy + extra draft capital and Seahawks get the #3 QB presumably taking either Richardson or Levis. If John & Pete make the commitment to go QB and want one of the “Big 3” it could push Young down to the Colts at #4. Interesting stuff.
No because that would mean being seen to let Seattle get the QB they want. If that worked for Seattle, it would be career suicide for Arizona’s new GM.
Rob,
If qbs go top 4and hawks draft Anderson would you prefer hooker in the 2nd or someone like DTR later on?
Hooker in R2 is a reach
Glad this got done now so JS can plan. Kinda surprising Chicago didn’t wait, no? Feels like they could have extracted more the closer we got to draft day.
This isn’t uncommon
Better to do it now before free agency so both teams can plan accordingly
Think Moore was the key and doing this now let’s them address other areas in free agency.
Carolina – Stroud
Texans – Young
Arizona – Anderson
Indy – Richardson or Levis
Hawks – Levis or Richarson
I have been saying this since the combine and agree completely Rob.
Vegas moving up to #3 is only thing that could throw a wrench into things and then the Hawks take Anderson.
If we said the Hawks consolation prize was Will Anderson in the 1st round people would have said you were crazy.
Anderson has always been a card in this poker hand
I wish the seahawks organization valued the center position more. They value kickers and punters higher than a good center smh
I’ve thought this long and hard….
Its clear Pete and John both had their hearts broken when a high school center stole their sweethearts.
There is no other reason why this has gone on so long.
The Bears number 2 they picked up in 2025 could be very beneigicial. Along with the additional number 1 in 2024 they set up nicely to trade up to 1 next year if wanted.
Ugh, Carolina moving up makes me even more uncomfortable that any of the 4 QBs will be there, this is why I wanted them to trade up (not necessarily to #1, but even #2 or #3). Not coming out of this draft with a QB of the future is a major fail, no matter how you cut it.
What do you think about:
5 Anderson DE
and then QBOTF in Hooker at 37?
Go Hawks!
That’s way too early for Hooker
I think with his injury, age and unfamiliarity with a pro offense, it would be wise to hold off on Hooker until the 4th round at the earliest.
He’ll be gone by then. Someone else will have talked themselves into taking him.
Pushing more talent down the board to Seattle.
Pretty much agree, but if the QB(s) we love aren’t there at #5, I think Hooker is well in play with our third round pick. No sooner, thank you. Hooker at #83 could make some sense after addressing DL, IOL, and/or WR3 with our first four. Or a BPA player that falls to us a spot we can’t resist. In this class, that could easily be a RB or TE.
Will be such a huge missed opportunity to not come away with any of the QBs in a top heavy QB class. Will Anderson just doesn’t do anything for me and doesn’t impact the team nowhere near as much as a franchise QB
The issue with Hooker is he will be 27 by the time he makes his first start in the NFL. Will Anderson just doesnt do much for me even at #5. Seahawks need a long term answer at QB, they structured the Geno deal in a way to draft a QB, not being able to because they are afraid of trading up is just a massive whiff.
Panthers have traded for Sam darnold/baker mayfield AND paid 5th year options. Signed teddy bridgewater to outrageous deal. Draft Matt corral.
Now trade up to 1. That we has to be crazy to work for.
As it relates to a trade with AZ, I agree that being in the same division doesn’t mean a trade can’t happen. But being in the same division means the price is higher than what is being discussed here. I feel like moving to #2 would be the same price as #3.
It can’t happen when Arizona has a new GM and you’re suggesting his opening gambit is to let the Seahawks pick a QB they really like.
I keep saying this. Put yourself in his shoes. If Seattle hits on that pick, it’s all he is ever known as. The guy who gave the division rival a franchise QB.
It isn’t happening.
That’s a very good point Rob, one I hadn’t thought of. Of course, that would only be the case if Seattle gets a QB who does very well.
Can’t believe we’re sitting just put off reach. Bleach!
That was my point, is that a trade with Arizona is cost prohibitive. Could it happen, sure but negotiating with Houston may be just as fruitful.
It’s not cost prohibitive
It’s ‘new GM isn’t going to make that call in a million years’ prohibitive
I feel like so much time and energy has been wasted today talking about trading with the Cardinals. Why would their brand new GM wouldn’t want to — in any circumstance — invite Seattle to get the quarterback they wanted? If that QB ended up being the next Mahomes, you would forever be remembered as the clown GM who gave a division rival a legend. NO picks are worth that risk. None. Imagine doing that as the first serious move you make as a GM.
I couldn’t agree with you more Rob. Was trying to articulate that trading with Arizona is a non starter.
👍🏻
So what do u suggest then Rob? Make a deal with the Texans? If you think there’s a QB JS has to have, don’t u think they should be going hard after that #2 pick?
You can’t force a team to trade with you, Houston might not want to do a deal
I get that, which is why I think if we trade up, which I think we will not, it’s more likely to be with Houston than AZ. Arizona will surely ask a saving face premium and it will ultimatley kill the deal. Houston might bite at the same deal we would offer AZ for #3 and still find themselves looking at #5, #12, and a day 2 pick this year, maybe a day 2 pick next year too. If HOU is not all in a QB, it could happen. If they sign Jimmy G as the rumor mill suggests, this is entirely possible.
Gasp, if I was Houston and could get #5 and #20 this year to go with my #12 and don’t have my franchise married to a QB out of this class, I would pull that trigger in a second. I’m walking away with three first round picks in a draft littered with elite BPA talent for dropping two slots. This is the very defintion of milking the needy.
Were it me….I’d call Houston give them 5 and 20 and sit happy waiting for draft day.
I’ve just watched a 10 minute video where Chris Simms, former Texas QB, keeps saying the BIG-12 stinks.
I note this as a large portion of the Seahawks fan base pines for us to spend a third first round pick in four years on a BIG-12 defender who is already at least 23-years-old.
This is too simplistic though. It’s the same school that mahomes came from.
I don’t know if tyree wilson is good. But it’s about the prospect and projecting not the school/conference they come from.
I think you’ve taken a pinch of salt and turned it into a salt mine there with my comment
1. The BIG-12 does stink
2. It’s a fact that Seattle has taken two over-aged defenders from the BIG-12 in the last four years
3. It would make it a hat-trick
Never said, ‘Wilson is going to fail because he played for Texas Tech’ or anything like that
Bears #1 to Carolina #9 + is the first domino to fall. This was uber-predictable. What will be the next domino?
The “Jokers” are Houston and Arizona.
Anyone who thinks AZ will trade down with Seattle is (IMO) delusional, with all due respect. They (AZ) may very well trade down to #7 with the Raiders, who certainly are in the market for a QB.
That said, the draft now runs through Houston. They are now in the driver’s seat and given they have so many needs, one can only speculate as to what they will do.
I keep seeing things like “SEA would be stupid to not take Jalen Carter. Who cares what they say about high character, he’s a beast”. I understand people will have differing opinions, but what are they seeing that I’m not?
Just throwing this out there. Carolina has +300 odds to win the NFC South. They draft Stroud and trade for Hopkins. Combined with that defense and a good OL how could that not win that week division
Sucks to be Matt Corral right now. I believe it’s between Stroud and Richardson for Arizona.
Arizona is not drafting a QB unless someone trades for video game boy…..er, Kyler and that ain’t happenin’.
Of course I meant Panthers, sorry.
Or did you mean Carolina?
LOL
I think Bryce Young falls to #5…he is the least “traitsie” and the least of the QBs from a physical stand point..it looks obvious to me..and I’d run to the podium for him
Don’t see it. As things sit today, he is the best QB in the draft. Someone in the top-3 will fall in love with him. He may not be the QB any of us would want, but he’s very good. I fully expect him to go #1 or 2
Exactly.
We want to move on size wise. But dude is a freakshow with processing.
BOTTOM LINE! It’s basic arithmetic. 5 spots for 4 QBs and the top Edge rusher. There’s no if’s or but’s about it Seattle gets one of them. I see enough 2 round mocks by commentators on TV. God I miss Kip who use to write about latter draft picks here. I remember him write about a WR named Swope and posted a video of him catching raw eggs without breaking them as they were thrown from the upper deck of Texas stadium. It’s a shame that he would retire after his 1st year due to many concussions. You know watching football more fun because of this website for me. There’s isn’t game being played that I don’t don’t recognize a player from the draft on either team, thanks to this website.
Not only does this trade put the top 5 picks in a whole new context, but I have been thinking a lot about this re-emphasis on character.
When Pete took over the team in his first year, the Hawks made an insane amount of roster moves. Even the minor ones, it was like 100+ roster moves or some absurd number. What he was trying to do was change the culture of the team from the inside out. That is incredibly more difficult to do than just adding talent. I hope that is what the focus here is. Add talent, but add talent that has the character to be part of a winning culture.
From what we are starting to learn about Russ and Jamal Adams, it seems that in their desperation to add talent they allowed ego to affect the culture. A lot of potential HC candidates turned down the Denver position because they didn’t want to deal with Russ’ personal demands. KJ Wright said that Adams brought energy, but the energy centered around him.
Lessons learned it seems. All the emphasis on character seems to point toward this. Getting rid of the ego, and being part of a team. I can only hope that Adams is a post June 1st cut to emphasize this. Adding talent is not as important as changing the culture of this team at the core.
The thing that made the Seahawks a team that went to the SB two years in a row was players who held each other accountable. Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner, Kam Chancellor were all on rookie contracts and told their team mates that they had better perform or else. Mess up a play in practice, and those guys would scream in your face.
Who in the locker room is holding Cody Barton accountable when he tackles the guy who is trying to make the tackle? Who is holding Diggs or Adams accountable when an easy interception bounces off their helmet? It’s a meme at this point.
Lessons learned. The culture needs to be rebuilt from the inside out. I suspect that’s a big aspect of what re-signing Geno was about, and I suspect bringing in a QB to learn about that culture, put the work in, gain that respect, and reinforce that winning culture is a part of that plan.
🦚🦚🦚🦚🦚🦚
33
Spot fucking on. Is culture a talking point or the real deal? If we take Jalen Carter at 5 (God forbid) or 20, it will speak volumes.
https://twitter.com/ibeenswole/status/1579197093029113856
Came to my mind too, but generally speaking Jordyn needs to step up his game first and then hold others responsible.
The past two years, I’ve seen Brooke’s name on the stat leaders for tackles on ESPN. Oh, that’s great. But it made me think “Why does a LB have so many tackles? If a team had a good defense, a line backer would not have that may opportunities to make tackles.”
When I see Jordyn Brookes’ name is that stat leaders for tackles made, all that tells me is that he has had a lot of opportunities to make tackles. When you have that many opportunities, that mean that your team is allowing a lot of 3rd down conversions. Your defense is staying on the field if you have that many opportunities to make a tackle.
Thanks for this link cha!!
Love one of the comments on it: “Even our defense doesn’t like our defense.“
Sharp reminder we need to draft front 7 – Bad! Now!
For all the off-season talk of maybe taking Mayer or Robinson (who are great, don’t get me wrong), we gotta remember what’s broken.
It was 347 transactions. 1 was the release of WR Houszada, something like that and cost us a little over 8 million buyout. Another was the trade for beast mode for a 5th round trade. Coming off a 4 win season they really needed to do what they did but the last team did leave them a 6 and 14 round before they left.
347?! Damn! I remember it being a lot, but damn! That’s a lot 🙂
I’m still irritated that was only a one year thing. Now it’s like their committed to their people and won’t churn out sub-optimal talent.
I know it is still a long shot, but I hope that this sets up for Anthony Richardson to be the first overall selection.
I will be running down the street with a wad of cash in both hands yelling “Yippee!”
It’s Richardson or Anderson at #5. worst case Young, I am not sure if John considers Young though and possibly trade down a few spots.
It’s a lock. We’re taking Tyree Wilson at 5 and Bryan Bresee at 20. I know that because I just spent a decade of my life today reading mock drafts. And if you can’t believe those guys, who ya gonna believe? Rob Staton? Pfffft.
These mockers read what the other mockers put out and think: “He must know something, so…”.
I only kept my sanity by tuning in here periodically.
Thanks, Rob, for giving me the ground to keep my feet on.
There is always the possibility the Bears could get back in play at number 3 if Anderson is there. They obviously have the capital. For instance if their 1st , 3rd and next years 1 got it done they get the player they would have taken at 1, plus 2025 2 and the young reciever for arguably nothing.
That was Sarcasm right?
Sarcasm? Moi?
😏
A couple threads back, your sarcastic remark on Jalen Carter went right over someone’s head.
Thank you 😂
I love this trade for Seattle. My top two choices for Seattle are Richardson and Anderson with Levis next. I think this trade increases the likelihood that Stroud and Young are the top 2 picks. And I think it increases the likelihood that Richardson is the guy who is available at 5.
I’m hoping to hear rumors about the Raiders signing Jimmy G because they are really the most likely to trade up to 3 and trigger the 4 QB scenario.
It has come to this:
1) hope Young is drafted ahead of us
2) reasonable draft day trade w/AZ
Wish we could make that AZ trade sooner.
Thats what Im saying, we are banking on hopes and dreams that we get a QB not named Bryce Young. I think we should be willing to do a deal with Houston to ensure we get our guy.
Houston might have no interest in trading down
U think the Hawks could/should have matched or beat Carolinas offer for #1?
I personally don’t think the price was too high, and it could have been slightly less for us moving up from #5 instead of #9.
That said, it all depends on how JS rates the top 5 players. If they’re all similar, or even if they have a preference (which they will with the traits he likes in QBs) but feel confident projecting what other teams in the top 5 will do, he might be just as happy to sit and wait to pick at #5.
I wish for a trade just so I can stop seeing Jalen Carter comments from Seahawks fans.
It’s unreal how many comments I keep seeing about how we need to be the ones to give Carter a chance at redemption and growth because uhhh we did it with McDowell, so now we must do it again with Carter because….?
It’s staggering
If we trade up, many will think for … Carter 😂
For a lot (most?) of them, it’s probably the only name they know in the draft besides a couple of the QBs. The first name they latched onto early draft season after seeing one Twitter clip of him picking up a guy.
And now that QB is “off the table” with the Geno extension, that’s the only name they have left to bang the table for as a Seahawks casual draft fan to look like an educated fan online.
Given that limited viewpoint, they choose to die on that hill and come up with any argument, logical or not, to justify their view and feel a part of the draft discussion.
If that’s fandom and fun for them, let them have it and do our best to carry on with discussions at our level of Seahawks and draft fandom. (In general, they’re not better or worse fans, they’re just more casual fans who want something to bang their drum for in the off-season to distract/entertain themselves.)
Seamode I agree with all this.
Just letting people have a good time with it at a certain point. When I see YouTube comments about he’s the best dt to come out in 10 years…..at that point I just let it go.
Read comments on other blogs and mock drafts and you see “game wrecker”. “Next Aaron Donald”. “Sure thing” regarding Carter. How can he be a game wrecker when he went AWOL in the CFP? Game wreckers actually make plays right?
Or quite possibly it has come to this:
1) Hope Arizona doesn’t trade out of the #3 spot
2) And prey Young is drafted ahead of us
This was a great opportunity to move up to #1 and get their QB of the future. Now it’s left to chance as moving up is no longer an option.
Js and PC are happy to stay at #5, keep their draft picks and takes whomever falls to them.
Most likely outcomes,
1) One of Young, Levis or Richardson falls to #5
2) Arizona trades the #3 pick, QB’s go 1-4, Anderson falls to #5
Personally I don’t want the smaller version of Kyler Murry.
Seahawkwire posted an article on there website. It’s called: Seahawks 2023 NFL mock draft: post combine edition. They did their mock with Pro Football Focus simulator to use their grading system to promote how good it is.
5 C.J. Stroud A-
20 Nolan Smith. A
37 Daiyan Henley. C
51 Steve Avila. A
83 Nathaniel Dell. A-
122 Kobie Turner. B
153 Jakorian Bennet. B+
156 Dewayne McBride A
197 Will Mallory. C+
Overall grade. A-
It’s a pretty funny read in the paragraph they wrote to hype the players. There is no way in hell this is a A- mock on this site and I am grateful for that.
1, Please someone pick Young in the top4. I think Stroud is the best QB but I’m perfectly fine with Levis or AR or Anderson if all QBs are gone
2, apart from QB, I think the next 3 big needs are LB, DT, C
WR3, TE, RB2, OG, DE/EDGE is a nice to have but we have some guys who could step up more or we could get these guys later or as a cheaper FA.
But I’d love to get C for the future, a good LB because not sold on Brooks and Barton is mehh, and Mone is not good, Poona is OK and Woods is old.
Other need might be S, but if I remember well, we cannot get rid of Diggs now and not sure what they’ll do with the peacock, so maybe that’s next year plan
At first this trade felt like a gut punch. But the more I think about it, Richardson may end up falling to the Seahawks at #5. The other three teams in front of them who may draft a QB need a player who can start in year 1. None of them have the luxury of time, or the appropriate situation to let a “QB of the future” develop for a year or two. Seattle does. If that’s the way it plays out, this will have been a masterclass from John Schneider. My nightmare scenario, though, is Seattle having to choose between Young and not-Anderson. If that happens, I’d hope they could trade back with someone like Tampa, who need a QB have a good chance of ending with a high pick in 2024.
Don’t sweat it.
Young is a good qb.
Do that and hope it isn’t WA.
Either way they know what they are doing.
Congrats Rob you are literally the only draft analyst I know who has consistently said there are 4 QBs worthy of being a top 5 pick all season. The rest of the draft media seems to have finally woken up to this fact.
Now that the Panthers have the first pick do you think they ask the QB they are taking to cancel his pro day and other team visits etc to avoid any chance of injury etc? I know I certainly would if I was the Panthers. If so we should know who that guy is soon and I am assuming Stroud as well.
Also didn’t rate the QB’s a year ago when people were putting Willis at #2 and Ridder in R1
2/2
I think the draft could play out exactly as Rob has outlined. My only concern is the Raiders. In a division with Mahomes, Herbert and now Russ / Payton can they really go into next year with someone like Jimmy G as your QB solution? I think Mark Davis will want a face of the franchise which they have not had since the move to Vegas. Perhaps they sign a vet like Jimmy G and think they will address is next year but my guess is they sign a veteran and then move up to 3 to take Richardson with the idea he is the face of the franchise in Vegas going forward.
Option #1 (ideal)
#1 Stroud
#2 Young
#3 Anderson
#4 Levis
#5 Richarson
Option #2 (my predicion)
#1 Stroud
#2 Young
#3 Richardson
#4 Levis
#5 Anderson
Sucks not getting Levis, Stroud or Richardson because of that Texans game week 18 but still a nice consolation prize.
If the Hawks traded back with say the Giants from 20 to 26 so they could get the WR they want the Hawks could add a guy like Hooker in the 3rd with that extra pick.
#5 Anderson
#26 Keion White
#38 Mazi Smith
#53 Luke Wypler
#84 Henson Hooker
#90 Moro Ojomo
That is a realistic draft that would completely rebuild the front 7 of the Defense with ideal personnel types and give the Hawks quality Center and developmental QB. Not a bad consolation prize.
I think if hawks miss out on qbs I want them to wait on QB and go dtr.
What is your reasoning why ARI would pass on a talent like Anderson? Personally I just can’t see it. “More picks” isn’t worth passing on a player that checks every box your team needs.
You’re talking about passing on a player that is a “heart and soul” of your team type player. For what?
I agree with you, it’s not a given that the new GM of the Cardinals, starts his job with accumulating picks,
and missing on the ideal player for them.
Unless ge gets the offer he can’t refuse. Raiders ain’t gonna send Crosby to Arizona.
Personally i would not be fine if we can’t get one of Richardson/Stroud/Levis even Anderson is not enough of a consolation.
Jeff Simmons predicts, that Raiders are gonna make a deal, hope he os wrong.
Fingers crossed.
Tyree Wilson? They could trade to 6 and still get “their” guy.
If Arizona values Anderson as much as most of us do, they virtually have to take him at 3 (or possibly 4, if they can leverage Seattle, LV or Atlanta interest into a swap with Indy). Watching Anderson torture the Cardinals in a Seahawks uniform for the next 8-10 years would be almost as bad as gifting the Hawks a QB via trade.
You could well be right that is why I had that as option #1 but the Cardinals have one of the worst rosters in the NFL and plan to trade DHop the are not an edge rusher away from being competitive. If the Raiders offer them an extra 2nd this year and first next year I think they would be crazy not to take it. They could still get Tyree Wilson at 7 likely and pick up an early 2nd round pick this year and 1st next year in what looks like a loaded class. I would make that trade in a second if I was Arizona. If they had a good roster it would be a different story but then they would not be picking at 3.
I find it hard to believe that AZ would trade away the opportunity to draft Anderson… are we overthinking this ??
I am not worried about Seattle’s pick being left up to chance. And I am definitely not feeling the need to trade up now.
We may not know who those first four picks are but John Schneider absolutely does. I think yesterday’s trade helped clear things up considerably. Who is Carolina drafting (Stroud) he knows. Who is Houston drafting? (Young or maybe Anderson?) He knows. Who is Arizona drafting? (Anderson or maybe trading?) Who is Indianapolis drafting? (Levis or maybe Richardson) he knows.
He may not know yet whether Arizona is going to trade but he absolutely knows who is looking to move up and who they are looking to move up for (Levis). He knows what Arizona is asking for in trade and he probably has a really good idea if any team will pay it for Levis.
Will Las Vegas give up a 2024 1st to move from 7 to 3 for Levis? I don’t think so. Will Arizona give up a chance for Will Anderson for anything less than a 2024 1st? I don’t think so. But John already probably knows the answer to both those questions.
One of John Schneider’s strengths is relationship building and another is patience. Anyone expecting anything but him sitting tight and gathering info from his network at this time is expecting him to act out of character. You are projecting what you would do instead of predicting what he will do.
I think at this point it is almost certain we will get Levis or Richardson by staying at 5. Is Seattle OK with either? I think so. But John knows for sure.
I know I’ve given John grief here.
And I’m patiently hopeful this is a fantastic draft.
But presupposing what John does or does not know also feels like projection to a degree.
I’ve been following this blog since Pete and John were in charge.
Every year I’ve seen at least one move out of left field. I’m enjoying John’s moves of late but if he was so adept at knowing what things were going to transpire then we would never have had any bad drafts. Right now we are exactly one great draft in five years. And one horrible draft in that same time frame.
From the niners given up huge picks to rams moving 14 spots for goff. Tyson alualu picked tenth overall I’ve seen enough wild draft stuff to at least “guess,” this isn’t the end of the moves.
John’s a long tenured GM. But he’s not the only one. If John knows the order of the next three picks before ours then it stands ro reason one or more gms would as well.
Question: how does JS KNOW? Teams are tight-lipped. He will have a guess, but why do you think JS can be so assured?
Here is an example. I’m sure John knew Carolina was trading up for 1. Here’s how. 1) We know from Chicago that this offer was on the table. So, when John talked to Chicago about trading up, they could have said, “Here’s the offer you have to beat.” 2) We know from John’s most recent interview that Carolina’s Scott Fitterer sought John out at the combine recently to talk about “relationship building.” It is possible, if not likely, likely he sought John’s advice about some aspect of the trade.
Pete has already spoke this year about how easy it is to predict the first 4 picks of this draft. And he has spoken admiringly many many times over the years about John’s patience and understanding of who was going to be available. Is he always right? I’m sure he’s not. But, has he proven himself right enough times for me to be confident about this situation? Absolutely.
I am loving how the #5 pick is shaping up, although I would probably prefer #4. There are helpful salary (and cap) implications with having a slightly lower pick, if you still get who you want.
I suspect Anderson and Richardson are the two players that make the most sense for the Hawks, and I think there is now a great chance one or the other is available at 5. Levis makes more sense for the Colts at 4. But, perhaps I am wrong and Young drops because teams get scared away by his size.
Levis makes sense for Seattle too
Rob, in the dream scenario that Richardson somehow drops to #5 and we pull the trigger, it’d be likely that the team carries 3 QBs next season, no? If A-Rich is as raw as advertised, we’d need a contingency in the case Geno was hurt for any stretch of time, if this next season is one where the team intends to push for the division.
Presumably, Lock would want a pay raise and may even be sought after by TB as a starting option, as previously discussed. I’m thoroughly unimpressed with the the available crop of rookies after the cream is gone. Might a tested, if unspectacular, backup like Cooper Rush or Gardner Minshew be a plausible option? Drafting a second rookie QB without A-Rich’s ceiling that may be more starter-ready? Or, letting the young man “struggle” while Geno is out, allowing for another opening on the roster for the defense?
Thanks!
Not Rob, but no way of knowing until training camp and pre-season. Coaching staff would need to see where Richardson is and gauge their confidence level in his ability to step in if Geno went down. I wouldn’t be surprised if they had a third QB on the roster, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if AR15 proves that he could step in if needed.
Knowing what other teams will do doesn’t guarantee a good draft.
A successful draft depends almost entirely on player development and that depends mostly on the players themselves. Player evaluation is so important because you have to project development, even for the top picks. What do they need to improve to succeed in the NFL? Do they have the physical ability to make the necessary improvements? Do they have the desire to improve; the willingness to work and sacrifice other desires in the pursuit of improvement?
This was supposed to be a reply to Peter.
I understand all that. And last year’s draft ruled.
But for me….I can’t ant be certain how the draft will fall. And I don’t think it’s unrealistic to think John will know either.
Take a clear example. It’s long been reported that John would have selected Allen in a proposed trade to Cleveland for Wilson.
In hindsight we now know that wouldn’t have been necessary.
It’s been said so many times but remains true – you draft for the player you project them to become, not necessarily the player they are today. Your time-frame on that development obviously varies by position, It’s why draft day team grades are fun, but a joke.
Five years down the road, things change dramatically. If you’re wrong on the projection, you look like a dunce. If you’re right and snag elite value, you’re a genius. JS’s track record is pretty good, but even the best evaluators are wrong more often than right.
Yes. The human side is the hardest to predict. I think Pete’s focus on “grit” is important. The best indicator of a person’s ability to overcome adversity (like you are certain to face in the NFL) is how they have overcome and learned from adversity in the past.
Lots of contract restructuring going on around the league -cough- peacock -cough-
We can dream…
We could restructure Jamal’s contract to save a bit against the salary cap but it would mean tying the team to him for at least 2024. I’m not comfortable with that. At this point, 2023 is shaping up as an expensive “prove it” year. If he can’t stay healthy or if his level play is not great, Seattle can move on after this season. I’m OK with that.
Lots of contract terminations going on around the league -cough- peacock -cough-
Fixed that for ya. 🙂
Restructuring JA would be a disaster. Converting salary to bonus just increases the eventual dead cap hit.
Reworking / renegotiating is what the Seahawks need.
I vote cut him as a post-June 1st
Rip the band-aid off
Let’s do it now
I spotted some “Seahawks will have the best safety tandem in the NFL” talk on Twitter the other day.
Apparently they didn’t see the video Adams posted recently.
He’s lightly jogging on a treadmill with a noticeable limp.
If he’s on the Seahawks this fall he’s not having any positive impact until November.
Get rid now
What are we waiting for
And again, I’ll keep harping on this.
Adams is on the roster Week One and his entire 2023 salary of $11m gets guaranteed.
There is just no way. No way.
So what is likely then, do you think?
I think they go to Adams with three clubs in their bag: Adams’ injury history, a freshly tendered Ryan Neal and the Post-June 1 cut and say “we need to reduce your contract. Would you prefer to be a free agent or reduce your 2023 salary?”
The aggressive (and preferable) move to me is just cut him June 1 now.
They could save the same amount of money and have it available to them immediately if they can talk Adams into reducing.
Again like you have pointed out several times, Geno was asked at his press conf about the locker room leaders and pointed to about 7 different players. Adams’ name did not come up.
Isn’t it over $32 million for this years salary and next years dead cap hit when cut.
Or, post June 1 cut this year and it’s $24 million split over two years. $7.1 this year and $14.2 next year.
That’s $11 million to spend on an FA, right now.
Add in the fact that they’ve already met with two hard hitting safety prospects.
I have no idea what Pete is thinking, but in my mind I have to believe John wants that $11 million and one less headache during this rebuild.
Telling
Everybody against it loves to point to the $24m in dead cap for cutting him this year, but if Adams is on the team week one he locks the rest of his $8.44m salary that was non-guaranteed as guaranteed.
At that point the Seahawks would be into Adams for $32m.
What are the odds he recovers and produces a full knockout season in 2023? To the point where it makes the Seahawks feels justified in absorbing his full $11m salary hit?
Not good. Not good at all.
Feels like they’re already there and maybe Prez posted that sad video to soften the blow to his ego when we all find out what happens, whatever that is — renegotiation, free agency or maybe even retirement.
He can say he’s just not far enough along in his rehab.
Exactly my sentiment. Rip the bandaid off and just know the $7.1M in dead cap space in 2024 and 2025 is better than the headache and wondering of Adams’ status. It was a BAD trade and we just need to move on
Addition by subtraction. Please just do it.
Definitely the worst deal ever. Should be a fireable offence.
You know Rob,
A lot depends on how Arizona evaluates Carter, Anderson, and Wilson relative to how Detroit evaluates the Qbs.
They could easily squeeze Detroit for picks and still be guaranteed to get one of those guys.
I’m also not sure that culture is a high enough priority for Arizona. Ultimately that comes from the coach.
I’m going to say QBs go 1 2 3 4. We take Anderson.
Todd McShay saying he believes Carolina is targeting Bryce Young.
All the people who’ve had Young as their QB1 are saying that
We’ll see…
If we assume neither Anderson nor Levis are going #1, and also assume Levis is not going #2, then there are still 54 different ways (3×3×3×2) that Stroud/Young/Richardson/Levis/Anderson can be ordered…and all 54 of those combinations seem entirely feasible.
…and this also assumes Seattle neither trades up nor down.
(and it will be mildly hilarious if someone other than those five gets selected in the top 5)
It’ll be something…..mildly hilarious is probably not what it’ll be though.
Insert adjective here:___________
Shambolic?
There you go!
What if AZ is enamored with Tryee Wilson. They’re GM could trade the #3 pick to Detroit.
They deny Seattle the opportunity to get a QBOF while getting more picks AND the guy they covet.
Sure, Seattle gets a top notch prospect but this is probably a best case scenario for Az. And it would break my heart…
Could be fun, but I don’t see any real way this could happen.
https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/03/10/darius-slay-recruited-seahawks-quandre-diggs-eagles-trade
Diggs is fun.
But he’s getting ready for the team to perform their greatest hits at the emerald queen casino.
Maybe we can see if Sherm wants to dust off his helmet.
A Diggs, wagner, slay defense would be such a slow, “my body aches,” mess to watch.
Maybe Bobby as a two down blitzing piece.
The Legion of Fumes
😆
OK that’s great. I like that. Well done.
I’m wondering if there’s any way Carter can rehabilitate himself (in his pro day? Charges dropped or pled down??) in order to become a possibility for the Cardinals. Thoughts?
First-time GM won’t take that risk
AZ situation is an interesting conundrum. If the new GM trades with LV, yes he may prevent us from getting a quarterback, but he would also be dropping Will Anderson into our lap…that’s almost as bad as preventing the Hawks from getting a quarterback. AZ’s new GM has to pick his poison…
Still not sure how we could maximize him in our current scheme, but it would be fun to watch Will Anderson obliterate Kyler Murray multiple times next season.
I don’t think Las Vegas is trading up. Their GM recently said, “We’re not drafting the 5th best guy” just because we have a need. If there is one or two guys you think will help the team, you see what it would take to get them. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t. That’s life in the NFL. You can’t always get the guy you want.” I think McDaniel enquired about trading up to 1, found it was too expensive and will move on to Garappolo in FA.
Also, word out of Chicago was that the market for teams trading up for a QB softened after the combine because so many QBs impressed so Chicago took the best offer on the table.
Brock & Salk interviewed Matt Stinchcomb of the SEC Network recently.
https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1745788/sec-analyst-seahawks-should-pass-on-qbs-at-5-carter-should-go-no-1/
He says that people in the SEC don’t like Levis or Richardson at all with a high draft pick. Likes Hooker and say that he would take Jalen Carter at 1.1. Compares Jalen Carter to “The Dirtiest Player in the NFL” Ndamukong Suh.
I would be apoplectic if the Seahawks ignored the multitude of red flags and accusations around Jalen Carter ( Drunken Street racing, abandoning a dying teammate, lying to police, lazyness and lack of conditioning) to draft a player similar to Suh.
Even if you set the maturity and judgment issues and pending legal jeopardy aside, I feel like we’ve already seen the peak impact of Jalen Carter. And it was his sophomore season.
But isn’t it a risk worth taking? Because if they don’t pan out at qb we still have Smith for the next 3 years plus we’re building our team with our remaining picks.
I realize this is very much a minority opinion outside of this blog, but no – it’s not a risk worth taking. Especially not at #5. I would not be at all surprised if 5 years from now, Carter isn’t even one of the top 3 most impactful DL in this draft class.
Pete and JS would be absolutely exposed for being hypocrites with all their talk about how character matters. Maybe the lighbulb finally turns on for him and he shows the kind of dedication and work ethic that he hasn’t been able to demonstrate yet, but that’s a big gamble at the top of this draft.
I would stay away from Carter in Round 7 too. But yes, everyone should talk positively of him so someone drafts him with one of the first 4 picks.
We have the luxury to let a rookie QB take it easy and we should draft one at 5, no matter what the media thinks. Wilson didn’t have the best draft reports either.
I was referring to Levis and Richardson regarding the SEC article about not taking them at 5.
Sorry – I can see that now. It came right after my Carter comment, so went off on the wrong tangent.
And yeah, Levis and Richardson are well worth the risk of them not panning out, IMO.
No. It is classic risk/reward analysis. Even if you accept that Carter is a better prospect than the next player, how much better? And even if you make a dramatic evaluation like he’s 10% better, the risk of flameout with Carter is certainly higher than 10%.
I’d consider Carter if he was Suh.
But he’s miles off. I have yet to see an explanation why suh had crazy production in college as a one man band but Carter can’t touch that….the nearest twister explanation is Georgia is so awesome that everyone gets there’s.
But then at Alabama Anderson is crazy productive.
Maybe. Carter is just an awesome talent who never puts it together
Matt Stinchcomb is a former Georgia player
It was akin to listening to a Georgia season ticket holder
No analysis, just homerism
Bud Grant has died. Guy was an icon. I’m sure Pete is mourning his passing.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/03/11/bud-grant-dies-at-95/
For sure. A life well-lived. Not a surprise at his age, but Pete’s got to be gutted this morning.
Some of these draft sites are so bad! Drafttek has us taking Foskey at 20, Sewell at 38 and Andre Carter with our third rou der
If I see one more Tyree WIlson at #5 and O’Cyrus Torrance at #20 mock, I’m going to have to seek anger management counseling.
Are we even sure that Tyree will be that much better than Keion white. I know they’re not the same player but still.
I am certainly not. Tyree is the more impressive physical specimen, but his game tape is not super impressive. He is big and long for sure, but he is slow AF off the snap. He’s like, anti-twitch. Can that be coached? I don’t know.
The case for Keion White is strong. He has shown it on tape and at the Senior Bowl and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet. Given a choice between him and Tyree, with what we know now, I’m would take White without much hesitation.
The number of people saying Carter is a generational talent is starting to get out of hand. Reminds me of the Isaiah Wilson pick the Titans made in 2020. Two different players and Carter is rated higher as a player, but it would not shock me in the least if he’s out of the league in two years.
Part of the problem is the depth of the draft class.
In a good class, Carter would be one of those ‘you gamble on him at 10.’ In a great class he’d be a mid first round pick with the commentators saying ‘he might prove to be the best of the bunch but he’s got to get in the gym.’
But since it isn’t a smashing class, and a good chunk of the talk is not fully grasping how good the top 4QB are, Carter gets a lot of shine.
I have family visiting from New Orleans to hit Pensacola Beach for the weekend. I asked them what they thought of Carolina trading up to #1.
They didn’t want to talk about it.
They’re not popping champagne corks for Derek Carr???
Nope.
Lol
Which reinforces the notion that Arizona will NOT want to trade down with Seattle.
Unless they get an insane offer pre-draft, AZ has to stay put and take Will Anderson. Getting a rock-solid tone setter who will likely captain your D for the next decade, probably the best defensive player in this class, is just too good for new GM to pass up. No rookie GM wants to be the guy that passed on him to get a couple of extra prospects.
If Houston bucks conventional wisdom as Rob suggests, and takes Anderson at #2, all bets are off. #3 will likely be there for the taking as QBOTF teams, us included, burn their phone up trying to see what it will take. I guess we can hope they get a soft trade market and reach for Carter at #3. OMG, I would be elated if that happened.
A new mock from Luke Easterling at Yahoo Sports has Seattle taking:
1. Will Anderson
1. Keion White
2. Drew Sanders
2. Clark Phillips
3. Luke Wypler
More reasonable than most
And yet hasn’t bothered to consider their history of CB’s — and has them taking one too early for his stock who doesn’t fit
Yeah, I didn’t think you’d like the Phillips pick.
I think with CHI trading out there is no path for us to trade up at this point. As Rob points out there is no way the AZ GM is going to trade with us and allow us to draft a QB of the future that will playing his team twice a year even if it means getting extra capital and them getting the same player Anderson at 5. The same dynamic plays if we tried to trade with HOU since that would move them behind a division rival and would face the same issues by drafting a player in the same position behind the Colts.
One potential scenario is HOU tells AZ they are taking Anderson at 2 and offers a package (their 12 and a next years one and 3) to trade up to take a QB at 3 in front of Indy gonna be a fun day 1 of the draft
https://youtu.be/KlT0-LL_hEg
I can’t see the Hawks passing on a combine+senior bowl stud at a position of need. Unless he gets taken before us