Why I don’t think Tyree Wilson is a good fit for Seattle
The Seahawks sat with the #3 pick for a long time. Long enough, one imagines, to start dreaming about what was possible.
Their views probably align with the consensus. There are two excellent defensive linemen available — the best players in a draft lacking blue-chip talent.
Jalen Carter and Will Anderson were within reach. Here was an opportunity to fill a big need and get what they’ve seemingly craved for so long — an impact defender worthy of a very high first round pick.
Then the final weekend of the season happened. Seattle dropped from #3 to #5. Issues emerged over Carter’s maturity before he was charged with racing in a fatal crash that killed two people. The Seahawks have placed too much emphasis on character and how it was critical to the success of their 2022 class to think Carter will be a consideration in round one.
Anderson, meanwhile, is likely out of reach.
Many mock drafts have simply resorted to placing Tyree Wilson at #5. Has anyone actually considered his fit? Yes, he has amazing size and length. These are traits Seattle covets. Yet at 6-5 and 271lbs, that isn’t the frame for a 3-4 defensive end or a 3-4 outside linebacker. He is very much a traditional DE for a 4-3 scheme.
Anderson is an outside linebacker in the 3-4 while Carter equally fits the defensive front. Where do you place Wilson or for that matter, Myles Murphy?
Just look at Seattle’s roster for evidence of this:
Shelby Harris — 6-2, 288lbs
Quinton Jefferson — 6-4, 291lbs
Bryan Mone — 6-4, 345lbs
Al Woods — 6-3, 330lbs
Boye Mafe — 6-4, 261lbs
Uchenna Nwosu — 6-2, 251lbs
Darrell Taylor — 6-4, 267lbs
Tyreke Smith — 6-3, 255lbs
Alton Robinson — 6-3, 259lbs
These players fit the size-ideals for nose tackle, 3-4 DE or 3-4 OLB. Darrell Taylor is the closest in terms of size to Tyree Wilson — but Taylor is a long, lean, super-athletic EDGE. Wilson is not someone you would compare to Taylor as a player. He’s bigger and more powerful compared to the quick, twitchy Taylor.
It’s not even clear Taylor is a long-term fit for Seattle anyway. They’ve added Mafe, Nwosu and Smith in the last 12 months. They’re all between 251-261lbs.
Unfortunately I think the option of adding a ‘defensive stud’ in the top-five has all but evaporated. Irrespective of anything to do with the quarterbacks — I suspect Anderson is still the top player in Seattle’s eyes. I just can’t imagine a scenario where he lasts to #5. Someone in the top-three will take him. He was simply too impactful at Alabama and with an A+ character he’ll be seen as a culture-setter.
When you listen to people speak who are well connected or you read articles like Mike Sando’s GM mock draft on the Athletic, a consensus top-three appears to be emerging. In whatever order, C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson and Bryce Young seem destined to be selected to begin the 2023 draft — unless a team has truly bought into Anthony Richardson-mania.
When Carroll spoke on 710 Seattle Sports this week, he made reference to the ease in which you can predict the top of round one. Well, most people are predicting Stroud, Young and Anderson to be the top-three.
If I’m right that Tyree Wilson might be viewed as a not-ideal scheme fit for Seattle, I think you’re left with the following options:
1. Take a quarterback
Too many people are projecting their own views on these quarterbacks and not enough people are stopping to think about the man making the pick. Will Levis and Anthony Richardson are so aligned with what John Schneider has sought in the past. Big, prototype size. Fantastic arm strength. Huge hands. High football character and intelligence. If he was willing to trade peak-Russell Wilson in 2018 for Josh Allen, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be excited about taking Levis or Richardson at #5. Richardson is even more physically impressive than Allen and arguably has fewer growing pains to work through. Levis, for a long time, has felt like exactly what Schneider wants in a QB prospect. Plus, he’s played in Seattle’s scheme under Liam Coen and thrived.
2. Trade down
If they aren’t interested in the quarterbacks (and again, I have a hard time imagining that purely because of Schneider’s QB history) — then trading down is probably the most likely option if Anderson is gone. They won’t trade down and give someone else a QB they like so this will 100% come down to them simply not being interested. I doubt they would get a ‘haul’ unless they trade down with a team place between Tennessee (#11) and Tampa Bay (#19). Do you really want to trade down that far? After all these years of complaining about picking later on, you’re going to trade down into that range again? To let someone else draft a QB they want badly enough to move up? That would take some balls. Seattle’s front office has balls — but I think they’ll like Levis and Richardson.
3. Make a surprise pick
The Seahawks have sprung plenty of surprises before. If they really didn’t like the quarterbacks and if an intriguing trade offer wasn’t forthcoming, sticking and picking could be thrust upon them. The only two names I think I could imagine being ‘surprise’ picks are Bijan Robinson and Peter Skoronski. They both kind of fit but a running back or guard at #5 would be quite a thing.
There’s one other thing to consider here. The players I have the Seahawks taking at #20 and #38 fit Seattle’s defensive scheme perfectly. There will be opportunities to address defense in the first two rounds even if they go in a different direction at #5.
Explaining my Texans pick at #2
As you’ll see in the mock, Houston selects Will Anderson with the second pick. Everyone is predicting a quarterback at #2. That is obviously highly possible.
However, a few points to mention. Firstly, DeMeco Ryans succeeded in San Francisco because he had a dominant defensive line. The Texans don’t have that. Adding Anderson, with the hope he can be a similar X-factor to Nick Bosa, would be a start. It’s also worth noting that as a player, Ryans was a celebrated leader and tone-setter. Anderson is exactly the same kind of character.
Bobby Slowik was appointed offensive coordinator from the 49ers. He will introduce an offensive scheme in Houston that enabled Brock Purdy to excel. They run a system that has allowed a certain type of QB to succeed — typically a non-celebrated QB.
GM Nick Caserio also has a background with the Patriots. They have often drafted a ‘type’ of quarterback to fit a mentality or scheme. He also has a connection to Jimmy Garoppolo. Could he sign Jimmy G as a bridge — someone who knows the offensive system — then draft someone like Stetson Bennett, Hendon Hooker or Aidan O’Connell later on? It feels like a plan you can imagine the Patriots taking on.
So sure — they might draft a big-name QB and go from there. I just think there’s at least a chance they take Anderson at #2.
The trades explained
Carolina moves up to #1
Owner David Tepper has made it clear he doesn’t want to settle at quarterback and he’s been plotting a big move for some time. I suspect they are almost certain to be the ones who make the trade up. The Colts are guaranteed a QB at #4 and the Panthers feel like they’re one player away. I can imagine Frank Reich giving Stroud his seal of approval and the two major players in Carolina shaking hands on a plan to pick first overall. The compensation is their 2024 and 2025 first rounders, plus the #40 pick this year.
Las Vegas moves up to #3
If Will Anderson is on the board at #3 I think the Cardinals will take him. Otherwise, I think they’ll look to trade down. The Raiders need a future at the position and will have to move up from #7 to get to the top-four QB’s. They surrender their 2024 first round pick and the #39 pick this year.
Round one
#1 Carolina (v/CHI) — CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
David Tepper is on the record saying he wants special at the position. Stroud has that potential and he’ll likely get Frank Reich’s seal of approval.
#2 Houston — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
Everyone assumes they’ll go quarterback. DeMeco Ryans succeeded in San Francisco due to the D-line. GM Nick Caserio is from the Patriots way of doing things and they’ve always been happy to draft for scheme fit later. Anderson’s A+ character and talent could tempt the Texans to launch their new era with a different approach here.
#3 Las Vegas (v/ARI) — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
The Raiders need someone who can realistically compete to start and I think they’ll be a draft-day trader to get up and secure a QB. Young would be a good fit for Josh McDaniels and the Belichick coaches always pay attention to the Nick Saban players.
#4 Indianapolis — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
Why Levis over Richardson? The Colts need the player who is better equipped to start right away. I think they’re less likely to trade up with four QB options on the board.
#5 Seattle — Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
There simply isn’t a game-changing, sure-fire defensive player available which makes this a much easier decision than it could’ve been. The Seahawks have set up the perfect situation where Richardson can redshirt behind Geno Smith. John Schneider loved Josh Allen and Richardson has similar physical talent and flaws to work on. If the Colts had taken Richardson instead, I would’ve selected Will Levis here.
#6 Detroit (v/LA) — Peter Skoronski (G, Northwestern)
Skoronski is one of the most explosive players to enter the NFL in years. He’s a safe, solid pick that aligns with the mentality and culture in Detroit.
#7 Arizona (v/LV) — Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech)
The Cardinals trade down and take Wilson — who is a much better fit as a 4-3 end for Jonathan Garrett than he is trying to fit in as a 3-4 DE at 271lbs.
#8 Atlanta — Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)
GM Terry Fontenot is big on a ‘best player available’ approach and that’s Bijan Robinson here.
#9 Chicago (v/CAR) — Darnell Wright (T, Tennessee)
The Bears trade down eight spots and decide their best move is to draft the top tackle in the class.
#10 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)
He’s gritty and competitive and showed at the combine he has plenty of athletic quality too.
#11 Tennessee — Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame)
He’s becoming underrated. A complete tight end who ran faster than anyone expected. One of the safest picks in the draft.
#12 Houston (v/CLE) — Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College)
The Texans decide to add an explosive, dynamic chess piece for their offense.
#13 NY Jets — Paris Johnson Jr (T, Ohio State)
The Jets need a longer term fixture at left tackle, whoever the quarterback is.
#14 New England — Joey Porter Jr (CB, Penn State)
Great character and maturity, NFL bloodlines — Porter Jr is another very safe, solid pick in this slot.
#15 Green Bay — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
I have no idea how this situation will play out — but there were already doubts about Carter’s maturity before the legal issues emerged.
#16 Washington — Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
This fills a need and Witherspoon’s sparky on-field demeanour and hitting matches the Ron Rivera defense.
#17 Pittsburgh — Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland)
By running the way he did at his size, then performing well during drills, he cemented a top-20 placing.
#18 Detroit — D.J. Turner (CB, Michigan)
The cornerback run continues. Turner ran the fastest forty at the combine and he loves to play run support. He’ll work for Dan Campbell.
#19 Tampa Bay — Luke Musgrave (TE, Oregon State)
This could be an area where need meets BPA. Musgrave is such a glider as a runner. At his size, it’s impressive. And he can block.
#20 Seattle — Keion White (DE, Georgia Tech)
At 6-5 and 285lbs (with 34-inch arms), White is ideally placed to play DE in Seattle’s scheme. He’s a potential difference-maker for the defensive front and he flashed rare quickness for a man his size at the Senior Bowl.
#21 Miami — forfeited
Naughty Dolphins.
#22 LA Chargers — Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
Brandon Staley led the #1 defense in the league when he had Aaron Donald. He might be willing to take a chance to find out just how close Kancey is to Donald.
#23 Baltimore — Lukas Van Ness (DE, Iowa)
Not starting for Iowa might temper some of the testing stock but he’s an athlete with good size.
#24 Minnesota — Myles Murphy (DE, Clemson)
They need a cornerback but the early run goes against them so they settle on the overrated with upside Murphy — who had a disappointing 2022 season.
#25 Jacksonville — Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)
The Jaguars need someone with Johnston’s frame and speed.
#26 NY Giants — Jaxson Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State)
I still think a lack of long speed keeps him out of the top-25.
#27 Dallas — Josh Downs (WR, North Carolina)
The Cowboys want to be more explosive on offense and Downs is flying under the radar in the media. He’s a fantastic player.
#28 Buffalo — Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
With Jordan Poyer saying on the NFL Network during the combine he fancies playing somewhere warmer, the Bills might take his replacement here.
#29 Cincinnati — Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah)
An already dynamic offense gets even scarier. Keep adding weapons.
#30 New Orleans (v/DEN, SF) — Darnell Washington (TE, Georgia)
If you can run a 4.08 short shuttle at 265lbs you’ll go in the first round.
#31 Philadelphia — Will McDonald (EDGE, Iowa State)
McDonald is light but so dynamic working the edge and would be a good addition to Philly’s rotation.
#32 Kansas City — Adetomiwa Adebawore (DE, Northwestern)
The Chiefs love to draft dynamic athletes who test well and nobody tested better than Adebawore at the combine.
Round two
#33 Pittsburgh (v/CHI) — Jordan Addison (WR, USC)
An obvious fit given his familiarity with Kenny Pickett.
#34 Houston — Bryan Bresee (DT, Clemson)
The defensive line rebuild continues. Load it up for DeMeco Ryans, try to recreate what you had with the 49ers.
#35 Arizona — Dawand Jones (T, Ohio State)
They have big needs across the offensive line and Jones would be a plug-in right tackle.
#36 Indianapolis — Jalin Hyatt (WR, Tennessee)
The Colts’ offense lacks explosive play ability and that’s what Hyatt brings with his late acceleration to separate downfield.
#37 LA Rams — Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
At some point someone is going to just feel like Gibbs is too good not to take.
#38 Seattle (v/DEN) — Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
A massive, long-armed, super-athletic nose tackle who can be the future anchor for Seattle’s D-line with enough physical quality to be more than just a space-eater.
#39 Arizona (v/LV) — Tuli Tuipulotu (DE, USC)
They get this pick from the Raiders for trading down. Tuli’s brother plays for the Eagles and he could be a Brandon Graham-type presence for Jonathan Gannon.
#40 Chicago (v/CAR) — Broderick Jones (G, Georgia)
This is one of the picks they received from the Panthers for moving off the #1 pick. This could be a trench-heavy draft for the Bears and after selecting a long-term fixture at right tackle, now they improve the interior.
#41 New Orleans — Keeanu Benton (DT, Wisconsin)
They need someone to anchor the interior D-line and Benton fits the bill.
#42 Tennessee — Cedric Tillman (WR, Tennessee)
They just need more weapons. After taking a tight end with their top pick, they now add another outside threat.
#43 Cleveland — Drew Sanders (LB, Arkansas)
This is a need for the Browns. It was disappointing not to see Sanders test at the combine and for that reason, I’m going to move him down a bit.
#44 NY Jets — Joe Tippmann (C, Wisconsin)
Joe Douglas likes explosive athletes on his offensive line and Tippmann is a better fit than John Michael Schmitz or Luke Wypler. Nathaniel Hackett ran an offense with Josh Myers at center and that’s who Tippmann compares to.
#45 Atlanta — Derick Hall (DE, Auburn)
Pass rush remains an issue for the Falcons and Hall can be a tone-setter in the locker room too.
#46 Green Bay — Tucker Kraft (TE, South Dakota State)
If the Jordan Love era is coming, he’ll need weapons.
#47 New England — Nolan Smith (LB, Georgia)
He’s just such a tweener. Yes he tested brilliantly and he’s an A+ character guy — but it’ll take a certain team/scheme to select him. People are making a size comparison to Haason Reddick but for me they are different players.
#48 Washington — Trenton Simpson (LB, Clemson)
Simpson had a disappointing 2022 season and he’s more of an athletic project at this point.
#49 Detroit — Zacch Pickens (DT, South Carolina)
He’s flying under the radar despite a good combine and Senior Bowl.
#50 Pittsburgh — Anton Harrison (T, Oklahoma)
Improving the O-line has to be a focal point for the Steelers.
#51 Tampa Bay — Cam Smith (CB, South Carolina)
This would be good value for a good football player.
#52 Miami — Kelee Ringo (CB, Georgia)
He’s big and fast but struggles on anything that isn’t a go-route.
#53 Seattle — Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
It’s the perfect fit for scheme and player. Wypler has the wrestling background, the 4.53 short shuttle and the size the Seahawks want at the position. This feels like a great match, although they could also show interest in John Michael Schmitz.
#54 Chicago (v/BAL) — John Michael Schmitz (C, Minnesota)
The two center prospects come off the board back-to-back. This fills a big hole for the Bears.
#55 LA Chargers — Emmanuel Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)
He looked like a rake in shorts at the combine but his interception production is impressive.
#56 Detroit (v/MIN) — Sam LaPorta (TE, Iowa)
LaPorta showed off fantastic agility and quickness at the combine — traits that matter in the NFL.
#57 Jacksonville — B.J. Ojulari (EDGE, LSU)
He didn’t go through much testing in Indianapolis and it’s hard to get a read on his stock currently. Even so, he’s long, lean and high character.
#58 NY Giants — Julius Brents (CB, Kansas State)
Fantastic jumps, superb agility testing and A+ character (not to mention a great Senior Bowl) will push Brents high up many boards.
#59 Dallas — Tyjae Spears (RB, Tulane)
The Cowboys continue to target explosive offensive weapons and Spears compares favourably to Tony Pollard, who just received the franchise tag.
#60 Buffalo — Cody Mauch (G, North Dakota State)
I get the feeling Bills fans would love Mauch.
#61 Cincinnati — Darius Rush (CB, South Carolina)
They take cornerbacks who have pure speed and that’s what Rush showed at the combine, running a 4.36.
#62 Carolina (v/SF) — Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
I think he’s so underrated. Great size, soft hands, terrific Senior Bowl. What am I missing?
#63 Philadelphia — Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA)
He’s such an explosive, tough runner and he can carry the load on early downs — while also providing better than expected pass-catching qualities.
#64 Kansas City — Matthew Bergeron (T, Syracuse)
He could replace Orlando Brown at left tackle or kick inside to guard.
Seattle’s picks
#5 Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
#20 Keion White (DE, Georgia Tech)
#38 Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
#53 Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
Thoughts on Seattle’s picks
The commitment to the trenches continues and they add three key players for the future on the O-line and D-line.
Keion White has the perfect size (6-5, 285lbs, 34-inch arms) for their scheme. He can be a disruptive 3-4 DE and be moved around into different positions when they want to be creative. He would replace Quinton Jefferson in the rotation and provide more of a X-factor as a pass rusher, while offering the same level of size.
Mazi Smith is a huge nose tackle (6-3, 323lbs, 34-inch arms) but he was also #1 on Bruce Feldman’s freaks list in 2022. He didn’t test at the combine due to a hamstring tweak but he’s said to be able to run a 6.95 three cone, jump a 9-4 broad and a 33.5 inch vertical. Those are incredible numbers. He could come in and replace Bryan Mone as he recovers from injury, working with Al Woods before becoming his eventual heir. He’s used to battling in the BIG-10 and should provide immediate, competent snaps.
Luke Wypler said at the combine he’s already studying the Rams’ blocking scheme and compared himself to their center Brian Allen. In truth, he’s a far better athlete than Allen but he’s right to study LA’s scheme. He’s a perfect fit — and therefore he’s a perfect fit for Seattle. He has a wrestling background, he ran a 4.53 short shuttle (the same as Austin Blythe) and he was an explosive tester at the combine. It will almost be an upset if the Seahawks don’t draft one of Wypler or John Michael Schmitz given how well they fit the scheme.
Then there’s Richardson. It feels tailor-made for him to come to Seattle. In Carolina, Houston or Indianapolis there’s no obvious starter to allow him to have a full redshirt season. There’d be immediate fan pressure for him to play. It’d be ideal to sit him behind Geno smith and learn the offense. The upside potential of this is enormous and by 2024 or 2025 you’d be introducing him into an offense with D.K. Metcalf and Ken Walker, your bookend tackles will be experienced and who knows who else they could add by then? This feels like the perfect opportunity for player and team.
Let me know what you think in the comments section.
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This draft, and I don’t say this lightly – would be perfect. Truly couldn’t think of a better scenario. 4 guys with the ability to be franchise cornerstones, in their own way.
Dream draft.
Love it. So be it.
If LV takes Richardson at 3 instead of Young, what do you do at 5?
That’s prime trade down territory. And I think you’d get a pretty good return for Young. He’s not every teams cup of tea but other teams might like him.
Even if you have to trade all the way down to 13 – nobody going from 5 to 13 is anyone worth getting upset over. If we could pick up even 44 and a day three pick it’d be worth it. But the return would likely be higher.
Young is such a talented QB, I think you have to take the “chance” on him.
If it’s Young at 5, and that’s fine, then I hope they consider a modest trade down from 20 to take Dawaand Jones instead of going defense.
I’d still go Wypler/Schmintz at 53, and use the R3 pick (or package it with the mid rounder they get in trade for 20 to move back into the late R2) for the best DL available (or Julius Brents if possible).
I dunno. I just would want to surround Young with giants.
Young is really not a good fit for us, considering the number of sacks our QB always takes. Maybe he’ll be more like Drew Brees and it’ll be all about the quarterback, but it just seems like it’s our offense that’s to blame for much of it.
We were actually pretty average on sacks given up last year with 2 rookie tackles. Guess who was number one. Denver. Who were supposed to be a fairly good line.
I think time will tell that Russell holding onto the ball was far more to blame for the large sack totals.
That being said, Young would be the QB4 in my eyes as a result of his size and durability concerns. Any of the 4 top QB’s left at 5 would be my pick rather than trading down. We simply have to take a shot.
All good points, and while Young isn’t my top pick, I would be perfectly fine with the selection. I do worry he’s going to be too much like Kyler Murry, exciting as hell…and then injured.
Would absolutely love this draft
Great content as always Rob! Having watched Josh Downs highlights all week I can’t help but hope he falls into our lap at 38. Although Mazi Smith would be a worthy consolation prize and may add some much needed toughness to the defense.
Impecable.
…although I’d prefer they pick Calijah over Keion at 20
Agreed, I’d love to take a shot on Kancey and his upside. But Keion’s perhaps a safer pick and maybe with the same upside?
For sure Keion would be an excellent fit, I wonder if Seattle is considering bringing back Frank Clark and in that case they could double up early on D Tackles.
With Kancy having 30&5/8″ arms it’s highly unlikely.
(A different Ben..)
I think Calijah is a cool player, but I really don’t think he’s a scheme fit anymore. Would I love a fun undersized savvy 3-tech? Yes. They’re darn near my favorite player archetype.
As role player, maybe it makes sense, but that seems high. Maybe I’m wrong on this, but 6′ 1″ 280 seems questionable for our DE’s. We may not be true two gapping as much as some traditional 3-4’s, it’s just still gonna be tough for a guy his size.
(a third Ben)
I don’t have anything to say, I just wanted to be a third Ben because I thought it’d be funny.
More the merrier!
In honor of BBK.
Ben Ben Kirben?
Fine set of selections here and Rob also lets us see how many opportunities the Seahawks have to improve with our top 2 rounds set of picks, even if these 4 don’t fall to us exactly. Exciting times.
We’d sure be a lot stronger and meaner with these picks. The only thing I’m uncertain with is whether Lukas Van Ness won’t explode over the years and we’d regret missing out on him. Based on what we know now, Keion White is definitely the better fit.
17 Bench reps worries me as a 3-4 DE expected to line up at 3/4 or 5 technique…..
It’s a wonder PCJS haven’t hired you yet, Rob! I struggle at times trying hard not to just regurgitate your takes, but they are just too well-reasoned not to at times.
I’ve been feeling very similar on Houston’s pick. I think they have too many holes to try to plug a QB in now. Ryans getting a 6 year contract is telling. He will be given time to build. Anderson makes perfect sense there.
AZ trading down also makes sense. If Anderson is gone and Carter’s situation isn’t resolved, their best value is to get more picks and T. WIlson is a good fit.
But speaking of Carter, you plugging him in with GB means you feel there is a chance teams will go for him. Not sure if you heard the SEC guy on Brock and Salk, but he is under the impression that it’s getting blown out of proportion. IF (big if) Carter checks out and the board falls as you have laid it out, should the Hawks consider him based on the immense talent. He still feels like the only defender with top 10 value that can instantly help solve the run stopping problems.
That guy on Brock & Salk is a Georgia homer
It’s not being overblown
But I have no idea what’ll happen to Carter, other than I’m 99% sure Seattle isn’t taking him in round one
Haha I know what you mean about feeling a little silly for regurgitating someone else’s takes all the time but Rob usually leaves little room for me to add anything. I think someone takes a shot on Carter but GB is more of a “safe” club. They would be afraid of the backlash if Carter didn’t work out. Other people have pointed it out but GB is always willing to accept good seasons over a championship run but risk falling into trouble after, like the Rams have done. Not having a single owner to take risks leaves a committee of people that fear losing their jobs and will stay safe to always be competitive without leveraging the future.
Been meaning to write this up, but rookie defensive tackles are not known for showing up and changing a team.
Unless you are a Ndamukong Suh type, you aren’t contributing much beyond a role player in year 1.
Of the 28 3-4 DE and DT’s taken in the top 20 picks since 2010, 5 have been rookie of the year. Which isn’t a bad rate probably out of 13 years, but that has been Nick/Joey Bosa, Ndamukong Suh, Aaron Donald, and Sheldon Richardson. Suh was an all pro as a rookie. Richardson and Donald are the outliers being picked outside the top 6.
Otherwise, there’s been a grand total of *3* votes for rookie of the year at DT for two players. Of course DT isn’t a sexy position and doesn’t rack up stats, but this is the average line for a top 20 rookie: 11 games started, 3 sacks, 7 TFL, 9 QB hits, and 40 tackles.
By far the most common thing you’ll hear about a rookie DT going into their 2nd year, is that they had some flashes and hope to build a bigger role next year.
Last years vaunted Georgia line? Devonte Wyatt, Jordan Davis, and Travon Walker? They’ve still got a bright future ahead, but you know what they didn’t do? Make much of an impact aside from Walker, and that was still in a small role, getting 3.5 sacks playing some linebacker and defensive end.
There are reasons to take a defensive tackle. It’s probably the position I want the hawks to pick the most over the years, the Suh/McCoy draft, BJ Raji, Richardson, Fairley, Donald, Q Williams, Geno Atkins, etc
The reason to draft a DT at #5 IS NOT to win in 2023. It’s to win in 2024 and beyond. Great DT’s are AWESOME. And they can play for seemingly forever.
But if you look out at 2024, the most likely spot to maximize improvements is likely gonna be QB. At #5 this year you can actually get a QB. QB’s are more just more valuable and harder to find than defensive lineman.
If you took this mock draft and paired it with an impact free agent signing and maybe a trade? You just made this defensive line group extremely deep, with rookies getting to be role players and a solid starting line. 2024 will look even better, AND you already have a potential top end QB in-house.
Sign me up! I love it. Would hate to pass on Kancey but I dig this.
Agree
If I know we can secure Mazi Smith the next day, I can become OK with Keion.
But in the moment, between him and Kancey, I’m taking Kancey and popping a champagne cork.
Very different DTs. Mone is hurt and Woods is old. We need a classic, run-stuffing nose. But Smith can actually turn out to be more than that, while clogging things up as well. Kancey is a John Randle-type penetrator with super short arms. Would be a garnish on top of a good meal. But we need to make the meal first.
This is maybe my favorite of these excellent picks.
This is very realistic and well thought out.
I like it too.
I would be absolutely fg giddy.
Completely dismissing Carter at 5 is silly. He is an elite talent at a position of need.
I wouldn’t risk it, and I’d be glad to see Arizona roll the dice on him.
Without getting to interview him and his coaches there isn’t really a good way to know how much of a risk he actually is. I’m not saying your opinion is invalid or anything, just that from our seats its a part of the evaluation we can’t really be sure of.
No way to know? There are 2 big reasons, his inability to get his conditioning right and his wreckless driving. Do we really want to take a chance on a guy that could’ve easily died as well a few months ago?
If the team decides these concerns are enough to remove him from their board, I’ll totally get it. They are legit concerns. I just think he should still be a part of the discussion given he is the best DT in this draft.
It’s not remotely ‘silly’ if you actually listen to what Schneider and Carroll have said about the importance of character in the 2022 class — and how they took a zero-tolerance policy on it. High character without compromise is how it was described. They weren’t even going to take Thibodeaux last year. But you think they’ll take Carter? Not happening.
We don’t know they wouldn’t have selected Thibodeaux. Also Thibodeaux had a pretty strong rookie season.
Special talent can change perspectives. Esp if that talent’s character issues are minor. Maybe Carter’s issues aren’t minor, its possible. But its also possible his coaches rave about him, and the perception of him through the media is wrong.
It is of my opinion that you made up your mind on Carter’s personality weeks ago, and are choosing to ignore the rest of the evidence about him as a player because of it.
What other evidence about him and his character has shown he is something other than what Rob and others are portraying him as?
I don’t have positive evidence. I just don’t trust the negative evidence. Narrative on the internet can get rolling very easily. His conditioning was bad. Definitely a concern. He was also a completely dominant force on the best team in the country, his conditioning was where it needed to be for him to win a national championship. I’m not letting that one factor over-rule all the other evidence about him as a player.
I don’t think there is enough evidence for people to be so made up in their minds about him. My two cents.
Narrative on the internet? His teammate died in REAL LIFE. He was arrested in REAL LIFE.
We do know that. Unless, of course, you think Dave Wyman was lying when he said on the radio that he was literally not an option at #9 or in round one. That’s Dave Wyman, who is close to Schneider, who works for the team and hosts a show with Schneider every Thursday. I think we can safely say that when he specifically names Thibodeaux as someone they wouldn’t have taken in round one, that it is legit. He has no reason to say it otherwise. He’s not a draft expert or someone known for wild, off-the-cuff remarks.
Not when the team says repeatedly they showed ‘no compromises’ on character last year. They didn’t say, ‘we had no compromises apart from special talent’. No compromises is no compromises. Thibodeaux was obsessed with his brand and money, thus he was off the board. Carter’s issues — maturity, not being in proper condition, doing what he wanted at Georgia and now the legal issues — are far more serious.
And you are welcome to have that opinion. It’s absolute bollocks but you can choose to be wrong if you wish.
I suppose I don’t take what the team says at such a full face value. They are in the business of building the most talented team possible, and they are in the business of creating good PR.
So let me get this straight…
You’ve accused me of making my mind up on Jalen Carter and letting an agenda cloud my judgement.
In the meantime, you are literally going to ignore all the evidence presented to you that I just noted… shrug it off… and then claim I’m the one who’s letting an opinion influence their thinking.
Cracking argument, Erik.
Think this has gone as far as it can now.
Rob, you bring me so much joy! Thank you for all you do. This site is amazing, your content is absolutely top notch, and the culture you cultivate in the comments section is fantastic! Totally love watching you get fired up –
I appreciate all you consistently bring to the table. Thanks for making being a Hawks fan more enjoyable! After reading this last interaction here, I think it’s time for me to stop lurking on the sidelines and start contributing some coin.
Cheers!
Completely dismissing his character concerns and potentially serious legal situation is even sillier. A player’s athleticism is not the only thing that determines his potential. For an elite athlete, his production was utter crap, he somehow couldn’t force his way onto the field for more than 40% of snaps, and he quite frankly embarrassed himself in the Ohio State game. These factors do not scream #5 pick, $40M contract, face-of-the-franchise type player.
Who here completely dismissed his character concerns? You seeing comments that are invisible or something?
If you’re taking Carter at 5, then yeah, you are dismissing his character concerns.
I’m so confident he’s going to flame out in the NFL I challenge you to come here after he’s been in the league for 3 seasons. Unless I’m dead (I’man avid motorcycleguy so alwayspossible), I’ll be here. I’d have zero problem admitting I was wrong about the guy.
Don’t say that. You, me, Tom, and a few others are going to be in Portland intgree years when Richardson is holding that Lombardi trophy and keion white and Michael Bennett are bicycling around the stadium.
Well my friend I am old so being stupid and taking unnecessary risks ain’t happening. Plus I have well over a quarter of a million miles without ever even going down (knock on wood) so pretty good chance I’ll be hanging with you guys while Anthony holds that baby high.
Elite talent makes zero difference if they dont have what it takes between the ears. I never saw the hunger or pissed off for greatness from him, even before his issue. I havent seen, is it for sure not going to be a negligent or vehicluar homicide? I know he was charged with misdemeanors, but i didnt see it being ruled out they could be upgraded.
True! I think its a bit ridiculous to rule out a 21 year old because of a personality perception pushed by people who have never met him. This doesn’t mean it couldn’t all be true, but we don’t know.
We don’t know what is going to happen with the tragic incident he is currently involved with. Of course not knowing how that will go is a factor too.
Seriously?
With all due respect, you are leaning very, very hard on the “unknown” which has nothing concrete to it.
The concrete things we do know are popping red flags up all over the place.
He is on camera getting out of a very expensive speeding ticket because he was recognized and that’s how it goes for some athletes. He lied to the cops after leaving a fatality accident that he was involved in. Involved in, not caused.
Now hand that “kid” a multi-million dollar contract, make him live on his own without university handlers, and what do you think might happen?
I have said this multiple times on a few sites: Jalen Carter was very close to becoming Henry Ruggs.
And after he buys another big, powerful vehicle, he very well still could become Ruggs, unless he completely matures in the next year.
I do not want the Hawks to become a team that shrugs off so many red flags because he might be something special. I want them picking the high upside, high character players, like the ones Rob has interviewed.
Echoing the Henry Ruggs comparison, as despite people complaining about an unfair media narrative, I’m not sure the draft media is being serious enough about what happened. Certainly still seeing Carter in mocks at 5.
Just so many factors to what happened that night, not all Jalen Carter’s fault, but unacceptable to be considered for the Seahawks 5th pick.
Whole thing happened at 2am in the morning (!), girl driving a University owned vehicle (!), she was absolutely hammered (.197!), with three of his teammates as passengers (!), he decided to race her in his hemi SUV going 104 mph (!), then after the crash he flees the scene (!).
Always try to see the humanity in these guys and people make mistakes, but I’m sorry, no. The reckless stupidity and gross negligence it takes to do that is not something that just goes away.
Regardless of how the charges shake out, it takes an extra level of bad judgment for any of that to go down. Society just doesn’t really have a tolerance for people getting drunk and driving a hundred miles an hour and getting someone killed. Just ask Harry Ruggs. People gotta be honest about that.
I think you guys are being a little hard on Erik.
Geno just a couple seasons ago was pulled over for drunk driving and the Hawks didn’t cut him. The difference being they had him in their building and knew his character so they were willing to look past that mistake. Someone else will also be willing to do that for Carter.
For my taste the Malik McDowell incident is still too fresh in my mind though and I hope we pass on Carter. Or better yet someone ahead of us takes him and allows us our pick of QB’s at 5. Carter reminds me too much of Ndamukong Suh. He is good, but about himself, not the team. I would rather watch someone who gives us everything he has on every down rather than a player who turns it on and off when he feels like it.
You’ve talked about the negative narrative on the internet about Carter but even after his arrest I haven’t seen it. In fact all I’ve seen is pretty much the exact position you have, or even a more glowing one. Before or after the arrest this has been the only place that I’ve seen any real criticism toward him. Twitter and fb groups have and are still mindlessly droning on about drafting him at 5, (but he won’t be there they say!) I appreciate we have this place where things are analyzed deeper with facts + rationale and bs is called out.
Only place where anyone considers the team, the men leading it, and what they can actually want or do. Not what Ted in his mom’s basement thinks they should do.
It’s not a matter of completely dismissing Carter at #5 for just this isolated incident.
It’s a mock draft & pick based on Schneider’s going on record multiple times saying character was an important factor last year; & will continue to be so moving on.
Plus this not the 1st time Carter has been in trouble for traffic violations.
In the fall he was also cited for speeding.
The Headcoach was on record teling Carter he needed to work on his conditioning.
Carter himself was on record saying he was told this.
I’s obvious he didn’t take it very seriously; just from how he performed his last two games, & playing less than 50% of the snaps.
His misdemeanors can still be upgraded so there are plenty of questions.
Obviously we don’t have access to all the information the NFL has; regardless just on all the above which we know is true is enough to pass on him.
Could he still become a star in the NFL sure. Does that mean you have to put him at #5 & ignore everything Schneider has said about character? NO
Rob has acknowledged everything in this draft on both sides.
So Carter slips to #15; Could another team take a risk higher?
Sure, I had Detroit taking a risk on him at #6. They’ve also built up alot of goodwill with successful drafts.
Seattle hasn’t until last year, plus the McDowell incident is still fresh in many minds.
Too me the issues with Carter are far worse than anything McDowell did.
Yet, because of Carter’s undeniable talent he’s still in the top half of the 1st round.
It feels more like your dismissing everything that has happened with Carter over the past year, and that’s fine.
However, to say Rob has simply dismissed taking Carter at #5 makes little sense. To me the draft and his reasoning based on what’s public knowledge is realistic as of where things stand as of today.
I will pray for this mock to come true! I prefer Ade Ade over Keine White myself though. Go with unprecedented athletic upside in first three picks of Richardson, Ade Ade, and Mazi.
I will do backflips if we come away with these picks. It would be absolutely fantastic. Even better than last year’s haul.
I’ll say this: put a pin in the top 5. I think that’s how it’s going to go. Been thinking for a while that Ryans will want Anderson. And more recently, been thinking that if Houston take Anderson, then Arizona is guaranteed to trade down.
And I’m pretty sure Indy will take whichever of Levis or Young that the team who trades up with Arizona doesn’t take.
Would love this draft for Seattle. With that said, I wonder if they’ll look to trade down from 20 to the mid-late 20s in order to pick up another day 2 pick. Let’s say we traded 20 to the Bengals for 28 and 92 – now you could be looking at the following:
5 – Richardson
28 – Will McDonald
37 – Smith
53 – Wypler
And with the extra pick at 92, you’re in a good spot to add a pass catcher to grow with Richardson, another IOL to protect him, or perhaps some much-needed LB depth.
I have come all the way around on macdonald.
But I think he’s gone before 28.
I actually think he’s gone before 20.
If that happens, a trade down might still be in play – I’d have no issue going Mazi Smith at 28 and Drew Sanders at 37. Ade Ade and Nolan Smith would be nice too
I had us trading with NYG for 25, 89, & 128.
NY taking Quinton Johnston at 20, us taking Adetomiwa Adebawore at #25.
Regardless loved Rob’s draft
Excellent presentation and I would love this draft result.
Two of your points really stood out: 1. Not enough attention is being paid to the man making the selections. 2. You did not include trading up as one of their most likely actions.
Right on!
Be still my heart with this draft…..an actual Center! (Not to mention a QBOTF and much needed help along the d-line) Lovin it Rob.
Remember when LA was the hot FA destination?
Now there’s an odor of stale defeat emanating from that clubhouse
They’ll be lucky to get a bag of balls
Trade Stafford and start Mayfield? May want to do it for cap or injury reasons, but I doubt that’s an improvement. They don’t have the picks for a new QB. Maybe they hope to sign Jimmy G?
Mayfield is FA too. And will probably cost 8-10 minimum if not more.
If this is legit, I am not sure what their play is.
They have $74 million dollars in bonus money they still have to accrue.
Pre-June trade, it all hits their 2023 cap and bankrupts them capwise.
Post-June, $18.5 in 2023 and $55.5m in 2024.
Wow! That is some serious cheddar.
Getting tickets for the annual game at SoFi is not going to be very difficult for quite some time. LA will abandon that team at the drop of a hat.
Unfortunately that crazy loud sound system at SoFi won’t go away with the fans, so we will have to endure…”Who’s house!?!” at 150dbs for the foreseeable future.
Sounds like maybe they are ok just biting the bullet and tanking? But I thought they traded away a lot of their future firsts, tanking doesn’t quite make sense without your best assets…
Ah so they have their 2024 1st, but not their 2023…so if they want to tank, it makes sense…
Geno Signing Press Conf
JS: Great negotiation, nothing in the media got sideways, professional, worked together. Coach Carroll has ability to instill confidence in people. Thank Geno, this is the ultimate team sport. Geno’s last year, inspiration to people all around the country, being a good person, faith, work ethic.
PC: Story about believing in yourself, confidence, trust, never giving up. He always knew, just had to let it out. Opp there, take over reins, handled flawlessly. Grateful just to watch. Needed to win a couple more games, but you know that. We need to do better. Quickness to get done before FA a real asset to us.
GS: Thank God, mom and dad, instill confidence to be myself. Big thank you to Jody Allen. Opp to be part of franchise. Coach Carroll, everything we’ve done helps me be better QB, player and man. Gave me chances to prove myself. Thanks to my agent & matt thomas hammering it out.
[q] Long road, opp to get here? GS: Improving as a player, best leader I can be. Contract fulfilling but I just love playing FB.
[q] Not test the market? GS: Wanted to stay here, didn’t want to test market. If I had to, I would. But wanted to stay here.
[q] Big for Seahawks to go into FA knowing this is done? JS: Huge. First and foremost. Get some things worked out with other players earlier. Teammates take care of as well.
[q] Confidence you can get better? GS: Throwing yesterday ball’s coming out good. Org, leadership, players, all about getting better.
[q] You feel respected now? GS: Yes I do. PC does great job. Every single player on roster respects and respect him.
[q] Value of path to here? GS: Inspiration to everyone. Believe in yourself, work hard, never waver confidence, be opportunistic.
[q] validation for you? GS: Honestly no. Just about FB. I was in the league for 10 years, best coaches, getting paid well. Always done well by it. Appreciated opp. Validation teammates, coaches, org.
[q] Discipline, not comparing to others? GS: Incredible journey. Draft had to sit and wait. Went to Jets, bounced from team to team, had to find my way. PC uplifting and inspiring, forcing me to believe.
[q] Satisfaction one year after trading RW? PC: Job that JS has done all the way through masterful job. Can’t not recognize that. All fruits still out there, heading into draft. Gives us opening to opp. High moment for us. Having fun with it. Scenarios having a blast. JS taken awesome leadership role in all that.
[q] Incentives in deal? GS: Believe in my ability. Opp to be top-10 paid QB. Worked out great.
[q] How much was loyalty part of it? JS: Geno and I have had convo’s over the years. Last convo, everything we do to max your value and put together consistent champ team. Give credit to agents, open minded, understand what we want to accomplish. Understand where we want to go.
[q] Build a team? GS: Important, build a championship team. Happy find common ground.
[q] Doubt you’d get opportunity? GS: No doubts honestly. Kept working. Even if I never got opp, leave game with no regrets.
[q] Year of starting take you to Year 2? GS: First time in any off system more than 2 years. New for me to see what that’s like. Excited about it. Tape to learn from make me better in long run.
[q] Playoff loss in SF grow team? GS: Nobody turned on anyone. They’ll add more guys that will help us. Young guys stepped up, vets. PC and his staff all one accord. That’s what you want.
[q] Where do you go next year? PC: Studying, working hard, moment comes to build he’ll be ready. Big part of it. Been in system for a good while. Why so accomplished when get opp. Nothing like that play time though. DK, Tyler, RBs, now next level out there. It’s about working hard, dedication, trusting people you work with. Hard to wait, want to start now.
[q] Signed Seattle 4y ago? GS: Same blue suit in my locker, never taken it out. Different environment, so much positivity.
[q] Noticable diff when compete for job vs anointed starter? GS: Nothing more than working hard. Got a bunch of reps. Mentality, chip on my shoulder.
[q] Young QB drafted, compete, mentor? GS: Both. Compete with anyone. Our QB room tight nit. Connected, act as one. Help that player like any player on the team. That’s my job as a leader. Never would withhold information. If it is, that’s the guy I’ll be.
[q] Culture in locker room? GS: Leadership overall, Lockett, Diggs, Metcalf, rookies like Abe and Charles step in and be pros. Continue to build on that.
[q] Build a championship, what need to be successful? GS: Me? [laughs] That’s the question for these guys here. I trust them to make those decisions.
[q] Comparing players find market, tricky to find value lies? JS: Fair Q. Try to do for our org, agent understands landscape, talking to other teams knows what’s going on, great relationships with people. Message consistent along the way. Knew where we wanted to be where we wanted to go. Messaging in exit interview never changed. Get us past first round and be a championship team. Ultimate goal, Geno holding trophy with PC.
[q] Confident get deal done? JS: Very confident. Never know how it’ll go, but confident.
Thank you cha! I take it Geno doesn’t have Mark Rodgers as his agent, does he? 🙂
Notable that JS thanks Geno’s agent right at the start, profusely, and spoke about the fact nothing went through the media
Also notable that Geno seems genuinely enthused. I think it means he’s likely to approach this season with the same hunger and desire to prove himself that he did in 2022. And that’s good for the team.
But beyond that, I wonder, I hope, could his contract serve as a template for other mid-tier QB FAs to follow? It’s far more advantageous to the team overall than Carr’s (or Jones’s), but also potentially more advantageous to the QB.
I think the Carr and Jones contracts are showing that Geno’s contract is a unicorn.
Or maybe it’s revolutionary. Too soon to tell
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/new-two-round-mock-draft-post-combine-edition#comment-686358
its just refreshing to get honest answers out of a QB here instead of 100% PR minded/stereotype shit we got out of wilson for years.
Like Genos anwser on building a championship, laughing and passing to john/pete saying its for those guys. Rus would just give some generic answer, I hope Geno plays really well and earns all the incentives. Who knows maybe he even improves upon last year, it was surprising to hear this is his first time in the same offensive system starting. Shows you what a mess the Jets were
First, thanks for this cha. I agree with Rob. Team Geno seems to have a much better relationship with the ‘hawks than team Russ did.
Regarding the mock. I like it but I think another weapon on offense is needed. If one of DK or Tyler goes down then the offense doesn’t look very threatening to me. I don’t really fancy the receiver class this year, aside from Downs, so I think a dip into the TE class is warranted. On a BPA basis, that is.
A+. Pumped and Jacked!!!! Would it be asking too much to get the WSU linebacker in the 4th? 🥳
If he’s there I’d love it.
Buy I’ve seen him as high as second round now
This would be a nice haul for the Hawks. Agree that they are in a unique position with regards to Richardson and letting him take his time.
The Jags have Kirk, Ridley, Zay and Marvin Jones (FA) at WR. They had the 24th ranked defense, so I can see them leaning DL or CB in the 1st round. They also have Kevin Austin (who you really liked) out of Notre Dame on a reserve futures contract. I only bring him up, as maybe he compares to Mingo in some way and finding that common thread would shed light on the disparity between how you view a WR vs others.
Just my two cents, as consideration for your HUDL submission down the road. Back to lurking.
You make a fair point on the Jags but I do think they lack a truly dynamic downfield, big target.
LOL….”naughty Dolphins”.
Good mock Rob. I would be thrilled if these were the first 4 picks for the Hawks.
I like it. I hope it falls out that way.
You think they like Keion White over Ade Ade?
Size is more suited to the scheme
I think it could go either way or neither way.
Keion white is no slouch athletically and super counter intuitively is an older player who has a lot of growth potential having not played his position for long and missed a season with an injury.
I know he didn’t have Ade Ade’s combine but was no slouch. Looks built. And some eye popping highlights of his game speed.
Fair enough. I’m just enamored with Ades combine performance and feel like he’s 283 lbs with nearly no bad weight. I feel like he could get up to 300 easily and still be explosive. Good arm length/height combo to win with leverage.
I’d be happy with either
I would absolutely love this draft. I would definitely have a lot of angst with all the trades happening at the top w/ the possibility of not drafting a QB that we feel John loves.
I was in the YouTube live chat during the Geno Press conference and I love/hate the 12s sometimes. So many comments of we overpaid Geno, why draft a QB when we signed Geno for 3 years, we need to draft Carter and all Defense with our picks to fill holes, we should draft a QB next year because the QB this year will sit anyway, and more… But I love that we are passionate about our team (well informed or not), and that there is a different type of energy going on because of what the team did in 2022 draft.
I also feel that Geno is a consummate teammate and professional. Such a breath of fresh air compared to the selfishness of RW the last few years as a Seahawk.
This is too good to be true. We can’t have nice things.
Rob.
Very. Very. Very solid.
Also….pretty bummed on Brents and Mingo. But I think this is right for them.
Love that draft!
If they could trade down from #20 with someone like the Bengals or the Bills and grab another secound rounder, that would be amazing. I think they could still select White at, say, #28 and they could use the second rounder to grab Julius Brents or Mingo.
You lose out on Brents but it’s a deep CB class.
most logical and well thought out mock i’ve seen this offseason. Hard to argue against any of those picks.
the talent available at #20 is pretty nutty. That #20 pick has so many great options!
This draft would be a dream. Would any real Seahawk fan with common sense and understanding of our team be really upset with this? They have faith in Pete and John, so they could/should be able to live with Richardson.
Then two insanely talented linemen on defense where the anti-qb guys get what they want. Most fans that I see want Mazi Smith.
And then a center? Finally? We would have the most dynamic offense within a few short years. As Big Mike said, “be still my beating heart.” This is gold, an actual mock considering what a team could be thinking with each pick.
I would give up a finger or two for this to happen, instantly. Not mine, but someone that I wouldn’t be very fond of.
Loved the last part.
But really the whole comment encapsulates what I’ve been feeling about the “wE hAvE 2 dRaFt deefence!!!” Crowd.
Yeah. We do. You’re right. Everyone knows. Now look at a board and see talented players just a little past your fifth overall-best dlinemen ever blinders.
Stuck on the idea of Seattle moving some players for picks.
Noah Fant for a R5/6 (might be hard with this TE class)
Darrell Taylor for a R2/3
Anyone else
I’ve heard some rumblings about trading Taylor.
You’d have to give me a very very early second rounder and a fourth.
He’s a proven pass rusher at that nwosu range.
Just me but if I’m giving up an entering his prime pass rusher who I also waited on to reap those skills I would need to get back enough to get someone who could replace him.
And if he’s still ascending? A second rounder for a guy who looks primed to strike that double digit sack number….I don’t know that’s a tough pill to swallow.
I think with the new pass rush coach they just hired they won’t just yet.
I think they will see what he can achieve with their group, plus who ever they draft.
And let’s not forget about Smith
According to Carroll the new coach has his ‘line in the water’ so by the sounds of it, he’s getting the message out. That might mean he’s spoken to Frank Clark, who was released.
I do wonder if they’ll be a little more aggressive reshaping the roster. The other day Schneider alluded to it taking some time to adjust the roster to the new scheme. Taylor may not quite fit standing up.
Fant I wouldn’t mind moving, but probably later in the year for a ‘24 pick.
It would be nice to pick up an extra 3rd of 4th somewhere. Make a little easier to trade one of those 2nds for a defensive lineman. With all this draft capital I feel rather giddy. Maybe Schneider is doing all this media work just because he’s so darn excited he doesn’t know what to do with himself.
I’m not sure Taylor fits either
But I doubt you’d get much for him
I would be disappointed to take Richardson with the 5 pick. After Rob’s enthusiastic endorsement of him long before most others, I made an effort to watch a couple of his college games and he just seemed a long way off of NFL standard. And even with the opportunity to get him time to learn that Seattle may have, he is no sure thing to be a longer term success as the weakness in his game is passing. If he was available at 20, that would be more comfortable, or even at the start of round 2 – every year there is a combine hype QB that goes much lower than his agent/publicist has convinced the media will be the case.
Now, I admit to being biased – I prefer my NFL to be a team game, not something where the QB is the passing and the running offence and everyone else just his assistants, but the problem with a QB who is a runner and passer is that when they get injured, do you have a back up that can mirror that? It is hard enough to get a back up who is a good enough passer…
I see your concerns.
But Seattle is in a unique space where they can draft the future and not ruin him by playing him.
He can get those reps while Geno plays. It took Geno a full year in Waldrons semester before he became the geno we see now. And in two years? You have a young freakshow player that has been learning the ins and outs.
He could be a pocket quarterback with his arm. Think of it as a MASSIVE plus for him to be such a good runner. Some of his best runs were scrambles when no one could get open. It wouldn’t be like Buffalo where the running comes from Allen. We have a coach, offense, and running back who can take care of that.
Just my opinion, but watching his tape, I saw the rawness. And I also saw progress throughout the year, and sometimes in the same game. He learned what he did wrong against certain coverages and adapted, saw some changes to mistakes he was making in the pocket. He will get much much better by simply having more time. He started out that raw.
And they will always have a backup that will be as similar as possible: Russ, Tavaris, Boykin, Geno.
The arm isn’t the question. It is the accuracy, first and foremost. And then decision making. I do think PC/JS are going to love the traits. They’re gonna see his potential. But, ultimately, they’re only gonna draft him if they think he can pass the ball effectively. Remember, Pete wants a point-guard QB, who “throws a catchable ball”, and doesn’t turn the ball over.
Great work as usual!
Rob, you often use the mock drafts to explore different possibilities. This one looks like it is close to what you might submit for the actual contest. True?
My one comment is that we often complain about late first round picks, but I love the last three players in the first round.
Things will change a bit after FA signings. The next 4 weeks will see a lot of holes filled, and opened, on a lot of rosters.
Post-Combine, it feels like the potential, in the athleticism demonstrated, has given a sense of greater depth to this draft despite the lack of truly top-end talent. Every year we see more athletic players at certain positions and this year seems stronger than normal with top-end quarterbacks, athletic O-line, athletic tight ends and good but not great pass rushers. Wide receiver has been so strong the last few years and appears to be a comparatively down year at the top end but okay rounds 2-4. Cornerbacks, good late round one through 2. Safeties, meh. It seems really important to have a 3 year draft board as a GM.
and DTs are almost as sparse as the safeties, but not quite.
not to mention the ILBs.
I’m choosing to manifest this mock as my reality, this would be such an awesome top of the draft. I would be equally happy with Levis, but ya man this would be sick. If they nail this, the rest of the draft could just go pure BPA, although they probably will want to tap into the TE depth and CB depth so another 2 easy picks right there
Just a thought:
If indeed JS/PC had a plan for succession at QB when they traded RW, it’s unlikely that Richardson was even a small consideration. Levis, on the other hand, probably was very much in their long-term plans.
Great work. Love the mock. Looks like we “may” think standing pat at #5 s the move they will make. Interesting decision if both Levis and AR were there at 5. Lean Levis slightly.
I feel like it’s inevitable that both Levis and/or Richardson will be there at five, we will get all excited, and then they’ll draft someone with a mid 1st grade.
ikr? I’m bracing myself for the guard at #5 and safety at #20…
“We had a chance to roll it back to the way we got started back in 2010!”
This is the way
Great work, Rob, as usual. You were in early on both Levis and Richardson and nailed it. You’ve sold me so much on Richardson though that it will now feel a bit deflating if we don’t get him. Levis looks legit but Richardson’s potential is tantalizing.
Wow. I love that top 4.
I’m a little concerned that this means waiting on LB and WR, but you can’t have everything and this team has so many needs. However, addressing DT, DE, C, and QB — specifically with these picks — is *very* satisfying.
Thanks, Rob!
My assumption is that LB would be Daiyan Henley in Round 3 or Jack Campbell.
Both of those LB might go in the 2nd.
I expect lb to be addressed in free agency. Tons of options there. It’ll be interesting to see if they draft wr or sign one.
Love this mock, as much as I always prefer o-line or d-line to skill guys, part of me says take Mingo at 53, and grab Scruggs a little later.
But if these were the Hawks first 4 picks, I’d be very happy.
OMG no! Please do not draft another WR at the expense of a quality C!
And I like Scruggs fine. But there’s no comparison between him and Wypler or Schmintz
I’m with Blitzy here.
Not sure if John or Pete had their hearts broken when a center stole their high school crush but it’s been long enough just getting by at Center.
Time to draft a center who plays center.
And i like Mingo.
About Taylor…
I think he’s worth a solid R2. Not sure you’d get more than that in a draft class this deep with EDGE prospects, but then I think Chicago might take him for 53 + 133.
I don’t think he fits Seattle’s new scheme. I think Will McDonald would make a much better 3-4 OL for Seattle than Taylor. Or if unable to get McDonald, I think Nolan Smith would also better for Seattle than Taylor.
McDonald would require spending 20, or trading down modestly to pick up an extra late R3/R4. Or trading up from 37 like they did for Taylor.
Alternatively, if they did miss on McDonald, especially after a trade down, I’d target Smith at 37, or even moving up slightly with a late Day 3 pick to make sure they get him.
I like either of them more than Taylor for Seattle’s scheme.
Word!
I love the mock Rob and really hope AR is the one we get at 5.
Question about 20 and 38.
Why did you go White at 20? If McDonald, Ade Ade, and White are all there, what order would you rank them and why?
If Edge is deeper than DT this year, would it be better to go DT like Kancey at 20 and then a different edge at 38, like Ade Ade for example?
So overall, I hope we go Edge/DT with picks 2 and 3 if we don’t sign any DL in free agency, but would you rather have:
Scenario 1:
20 White
38 Smith
or Scenario 2:
20 Kancey
38 Ade Ade
Thanks for your thoughts!
Exciting times!
Go Hawks!
White is tall and fast.
Kancey feels like an end, even if that isn’t his build… and I understand length on the edge.
Great work Rob. Would love if the draft went this way.
Understand the Seahawks preference for length but I really would like to see if Kancey could be anywhere near as impactful as Donald.
One change that I would make:
– I think that the Seahawks will move down from #20 to add a late third or fourth round pick. Lots of trench depth in that area on both sides of the ball and at # 20 I don’t see anyone who is a must have game changer.
Big Question for you:
What happens if it is Young that is left at #5?
If the other 3 QBs and Anderson go 1-4, do you take Young at #5?
Or do you pick someone else or see if there is a short trade down available?
Who would you pick in that instance?
If you take Young does that change anything the Seahawks do to make sure they have better protection for him on the oline comared to what they normally have produced?
Thanks.
Fantastic draft haul, great work Rob. I would be so happy to come out of the draft with these players.
I am really big on Drew Sanders and would love for Seattle to find a way to get him. Great size, athletic, and feel that he can do it all – legit blitzing/pass rushing ability, run defending, and pass coverage. I feel that the drop off from him to the next tier of LBs is possibly bigger than the drop off from one of the DL to a player like Benton or Young (ALA), but I’ll admit I haven’t done enough study to know that for certain and I really do like White and Smith so I’d be really happy with them.
Hey Rob, I have a big question ……….. do we have a 7th round pick or not ? lol
I’m still a little confused on that too. I can’t seem to find an “official” draft order anywhere. Every site shows that we don’t have a 7th rounder, but from what I understand we never met the conditions for trading that pick when we cut John Reid, so I think we SHOULD still have it. Guess we’ll find out lol.
I would absolutely LOVE this start to the draft!!!!
And it feels plausible…
Love this draft, both the Seahawks’ haul and the great thinking behind the other picks.
Can’t help but think your rationale on Houston going with Anderson at #2 could lead them to taking on Carter at #12 too. Imagine they came out of the draft with those two on the d line, it’d be transformative.
Have to think Demeco is one of the few guys out there capable of kicking his ass into gear. And there’d still be good wideout options for them at the top of the second.
If Young is the ONLY QB left on the board at, which would surprise me, then he’s MY pick at 5.
I watched two Tide games over the weekend on YT.
Young is a brilliant, and I mean brilliant, QB.
I still believe he goes in the top 2.
I mean the question isn’t whether he is a good qb, cause he is. Its whether his very small and slight body will be able to take the beating of an NFL regular season. That is what you are betting on when drafting him, how durable he will be.
I agree. He’s not my preference but he has the talent, the head and the character for the most important position in sports.
Houston picking Anderson is a bit of a curve ball. Good point about DeMeco Ryans.
Wypler at #53 would be sweet in this scenario, but I’m fantasizing about ending up with a DE White, DT Smith and OLB Ojulari to go with Richardson to fix that pass rush!
Curious, you were pretty high on KJ Henry, do you feel he slips into the 3rd?
Would love it!
Even if it played out with Young or Levis instead.
Rob, I read your mock draft immediately following watching the Geno “presser” and I came away reflecting on your several observations about PC and JS doing more media appearances this off-season than in previous years. It’s true!
The whole press conference and especially Geno’s promotion of the Seahawks “competitive atmosphere”, the “team environment” and the attitudes PC promotes toward competitiveness and constantly improving…all these things were like sending a message to the league that Seattle is the place to be whether you are a free agent, a draftee, or even a coach. It was abundantly clear PC, JS and Geno Smith have a plan, are seeking a certain type of player, and want everyone to know Seattle is on the rise.
One of the things I love about your mock is how every player you’ve identified seems to “fit” the Seahawk criteria, both in terms of physical traits as well as character and attitude-wise. I really like the players you mocked to Seattle.
Are there others I might substitute, or be okay with? Absolutely! While I love Richardson, if he is not there at #5, I would be happy with either Levis or Stroud, or maybe even Young. At #20 there are so many players I would be happy with: White is awesome, but I could live with Kennedy, Washington at TE, Sanders, AdeAde, tackles – Jones and Wright…Mayer, Robinson, etc. Also, Mazi and Wypler are perfect fits and fill positions of need without reaching. Nicely done!
I am now curious as to which prospects you are targeting for us in subsequent rounds…
So fun to read your stuff, Rob. You make me sound smart at water cooler chats. I give you the credit, by the way. On another note, its interesting that Seattle is reportedly bringing in Safety Jammie Robinson for a visit. You had him in round 3 in your last horizontal board. I wonder what that says about their plan for the current Seahawk safeties?
Can certainly imagine some planning ahead at safety and tight end
No Skinner in the second round. I didn’t notice if he tested at the Combine.
He tore a pec muscle
I think it would be Mardi Gras on SDB if the draft shook out this way. I was more on board with a trade up after the combine but there are still a lot of people nationally and in local markets that are high on young (and carter too, smh). Because we value the other 3 qbs so much here, it makes sense to think they will all go top 4. I trust that the 4 teams in front of us, even if there is a trade, won’t rate players the exact same way they are here and the hawks can stand pat and get Levis or AR.
Seems like there are a lot of quality players from 20-60, I wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle trades down from 20 and up from 83 to try and secure another pick in that area.
Absolutely love this draft it would be an A+ IMO and the dream scenario. The the rest of the draft focus on finding depth players and raw high upside athletes.
Thanks Rob!
You’re right, a lot of us do like the draft (richardson plus DL investment!)
With Macdonald falling in the 20-30 range, I’m wondering about other 3-4 OLB that would be available in rounds 3-5 that we could use to push Darrell Taylor at edge and replace Irvin.
I saw your draft preview from earlier and am wondering if you will make a big board too, ranking prospects by projected role in the NFL?
How far do you see the receiver talent lasting, through the 4/5 round?
In other words, where are the “cliffs” for each position?
New horizontal board next week when I’ve watched tape on a few new names from the combine
Any news on Geno contract breakdown? Waiting to see how much spending money hawks got to spend on free agency.
every day i f5 https://overthecap.com/, every day im dissapointed
The details that are coming out now make it look much more team-friendly that the initial reports. A good portion of the 105 million is in incentives. Cap hit this year of about 10 million and a reasonable out after one year, if necessary. If Geno hits all of his incentives, as he did this year, all the better for the success of the team.
If Keion White was gone do you think they would look at Adebawore for that DE spot or is he a little too small for them?
Rob and esteemed posters:
I see a few comments of picking up LB depth day 3.
What depth? We have zero quality starters. Brooks is injured and will we pickup 5th year?
I doubt it given his TFL. Perhaps with a better front, he can improve,IF, the injury does not slow him.
Where would be the “sweet” spot to pick LB?
I like Campbell for inside, Saunders outside.
Whom do you like at this much needed and overlooked position and what round drafted.
Correction, sorry.
Running a 3-4, we have many outside backers. no inside backers.
Big reason for our dismal run D.
I would be for Wagner backj at bthe right price, for leadershipn and mentoring.
We need to pick another dependable, long range starter to go along with stud DT.
Maybe we get a decent vet for a decent price in FA?
I’ve been on the Anthony Richardson hype train since you started mentioning his name a while ago Rob, but something Jared Stanger (I know) tweeted out yesterday caught my eye, which was his comp to Jake Locker.
At first I dismissed it, but then I went back and watched Jake Locker’s college film and I think the comparison is apt.
https://twitter.com/JaredStanger/status/1632998037344890880?s=20
So my thinking now is if you believe in Anthony Richardson, then you probably have to also believe that there was a good reason for Jake locker washing out. Maybe the game has changed, maybe he was in a bad coaching situation, maybe there’s something different from richardson to locker.
But drafting him at 5 is basically getting a slightly more modern version of Jake Locker
I don’t see those comparisons and anywhere close. I’ve seen Willis from last year and even Jamarcus Russell. Seems like too easy a statement to make. They’ve already dismissed Richardson and are trying to prove it. When I watch him, I see him getting better: footwork and mechanics, reading defenses, knowing what he needs to do with plays.
Locker played 4 years and never really got any better. Richardson you see it throughout the year and game to game. I don’t remember anything about Locker personality-wise or how he was, but if you listen to Richardson, you know that he’s going to do the work.
I think the comparison is that they need work after leaving school. But it’s a lot deeper and not quite the same to me.
I don’t get this tweet at all.
So his lists their comparable sizes. Only one is bigger. Then he lists their 40’s and if you didn’t follow football you might think they are the same. But if you follow football they are literally very far apart.
He curiously omits the other testing numbers because they aren’t in the same space and time.
Then he also omits that , like BK26 mentions, Locker never once improved over four years.
This teeth is the definition of “proofiness” where you remove data that doesn’t support your claim.
He’s nothing like Jake Locker
Ah yes, the classic “player a” looks like “player b” but… I’m only going to show you stats. The problem is that you could do the exact same thing with Josh Allen and Anthony Richardson and they’d probably look pretty similar too. End of the day you either believe that your coaches can get him to reach his potential or not. And if you don’t have that kind of staff, then maybe that needs to change 🤷🏻♂️
Richardson is a supreme talent as far as potential, but we shouldn’t kid ourselves, there is a lot of risk involved. He’s a one year starter who had a 53% completion percentage. You can certainly argue he improved a lot over the year, but it’s just one year, he could easily regress the next as teams figure him out.
I don’t see any comparison to Locker though, that’s just lazy thinking.
This is also why Richardson should be there at 5, as Rob stated in the article. Most teams will want a day 1 starter, not a project who needs to sit for a year or two. And I think he really does need to sit, though he could come in for some run/pass option fun. It’s almost too ideal for Seattle.
Oh, I 100% agree that there is risk there! But best case scenario Greg Olson gets him to be a 60%+ passer with wheels. That would be scary. Imagine if he became a 65%+ passer in the NFL?! Also, make no mistake my hope is that the Seahawks trade up and take CJ Stroud, as I think he is the most likely to become the next Mahomes/Burrow, but I just don’t see them doing that…
They turned Geno into a 70% passer. If they select Richardson, i see no reason why they wont believe they can do the same with him. The talent is there.
Also I always remember Jake Locker looking extremely uncomfortable throwing the football. Anthony Richardson on the other hand has shown some examples of very high level passing.
Locker couldn’t throw
In his final season, he had FOUR games with less than 75 passing yards
He finished the 2010 season with 2265 yards
Anthony Richardson threw for 2549 yards this year. 3105 for his career.
Jake locker threw for 2800 his junior year.
It’s not that crazy.
Richardson ran for 650 yards too
And didn’t have multiple games where he threw less than 75 yards
And he played in the SEC
Patrick Mahomes threw more int’s in 2 seasons of college EACH than Richardson threw, and Richardson threw for more than 700 yards in his only season starting than Allen did. Stats are fun aren’t they?
It’s crazy.
I got the impression Jake Locker didn’t truly love playing football. I thought he had lots of natural abilities (not compared to Richardson) and could have been pretty good if he had applied himself but he just didn’t seem to WANT it..
Did you see Richardson’s interview at the Combine where he talked about his single mom family moving every year and having to be a father figure to his younger brother? Dude has lived through poverty and uncertainty and demonstrated responsibility. He started training as a firefighter when he was 16. I can’t speak to Jake Locker’s circumstance and I haven’t googled it but I think that AR carries a wee bit more motivation in addition to the obvious physical gifts. Stats are another thing.
Ummmm……. Yes please! Well done Rob !
Moro Ojomo — 4.56 short shuttle
Absolutely love his potential for Seattle
Hopefully a future interview coming soon
Great mock Rob, always love reading all the Pen Picks.
I’ve been mocking the same to Seattle since the Combine, except selecting Darnell Washington at #20. It’s uncanny how close his measureables and athleticism are with Rob Gronkowski, yet with more agility! he’s impossible to pass up for me. And with picking AR at #5, they could grow together in the NFL with a Brady / Gronk comby upside?
On the 5i DE, I’ve been able to take Moro Ojomo or Zach Pickens every time on the draft simulators with our 3rd round pick, in reality if either gets close to #83, trading up with a 5th round pick would be prudent.
Look forward to that interview. He is certainly buikt like an NFL D lineman. What role do you see him playing in the Hawks scheme? Base DE in the 3 -4 similar to what you were talking about for Zach Allen or Keion White?
Yep
Love that Florida St S Jammie Robinson is a VMAC visit.
I just listened to Nolan Smith on the Eisen show.
Guy sound like a 10 year NFL vet. Some team is going to draft a defensive captain when they get him.
Possibly so
But where is he captaining on the field — that’s they key question
I can’t find a position for him short of EDGE for New England
OLB, certainly has got the athleticism
But that’s a projection — he hasn’t played it and it’s not obvious he’ll be able to
I fully understand this.
But aren’t you intrigued by his combination of elite athleticism and excellent character? Especially if it’s mid R2?
Yeah he’s a little on the light side and a not as long as you’d want. But then on the other side of that is Darrell Taylor who’s a little heavy to play 3-4 OLB in Seattle’s scheme, especially on the weak side.
And frankly, he’s tough enough I’d give him a look inside. Pair him next to Brooks. It’s a risk, but I think the rewards could be significant.
Rob, just another guy who is just so thankful for who you are and how you manage this board. It is the very best of Seahawk media bar none.
Thank you
So many R3 comp picks
Just waters the hell out of Day 3 picks
The comp pick system these days is a nonsense
That’s putting it politely
If Anthony Richardson is available at #5 and JS doesn’t select him then I never want to hear how much he loved Allen and Mahomes again!
+1. Seems like a put your money where your mouth is situation.
100%
“We really loved Richardson, but we couldn’t really pass up on a one of a kind talent like Jalen ugh I can’t even finish this
💯 I’m already doubting the theory that JS wants to draft a QB every year to have one in the barrel. Did he draft another QB besides Wilson? I’m just hoping that was Pete overruling JS’s attempts each year and JS now has the power to pull this off. I find myself constantly thinking, please don’t screw this up. I won’t be able to take it.
Alex McGough, but most seasons it seamed like a QB they may have liked simply didn’t exist or was taken before their next selection.
Rob, if the first 2 rounds go like this I will be giddy. I personally believe an “epic draft” in 2023 is anchored by Anthony Richardson at 5. I hope JS agrees. Your other picks are a really good match of player abilities, team needs and Seattle draft tendencies. Well done.
Agree 100% AR at 5 would be the beginnings of the Carrol/JS v2.0 era for a serious SB run in 2-4 years
Just watched the “geno day” press conference and it’s a real difference between the Russ pressers. You can tell he is really aligned with Pete and believes what he is saying. Comes off almost as genuine as you can get. Very proud of him and very happy for him and his family.
On another note, I wonder how much of RWs work ethic rubbed off on geno?
So no self-imposed deadlines, leaks as to which other teams he’d like to play for, or videos from under the bed covers after signing?
Just straight business and ball.
Gabe Jackson and Ben Burr-Kirven are gone. $6.5M in cap Soave cleared. That’s Haynes & Bellore
Haynes and Bellore deals made much less sense to me than the Geno deal after the details came out for Geno’s deal. We could have got those guys for half of what we paid them, I just dont understand this FO’s MO on overpaying for JAG type players.
I don’t know. Bellore was ST captain and is getting paid about $1M over the vet minimum. I think all the griping about that deal us a bit overblown.
And Haynes is getting average starter money for a guard who is expected to start. And it is a 1-year deal that fills a need before the draft.
Bellore is a ST guy and a voice in the locker room. The guy leaves it on the field and provides solid leadership, while playing a key role.
Haynes is essentially given a PROVE YOURSELF one-yr deal. He’s dealt with injuries and just hasn’t ever stayed on the field. His deal may be a bit-rich, but it’s another show of a guy being trusted/believed in.
With Jackson/Burr-Kirven gone, it’s essentially a net-zero change and 2 healthy guys vs 2 injured guys.
These cuts may have come after negotiating with Geno so that the FO could say that is all the money they had.
That’s the nicest you’ve been to the Hawks in any of your mock drafts ever. Getting soft in you’re middle age!
I’d be thrilled on draft day by that haul.
Curious why you think they will just select Keon White and not trade down 8-10 picks and take MacDonald or Ade Ade and garner an additional pick or two? You think White to be that much better of a fit? or talent?
Well it’s one mock draft
I can’t run through every possible scenario
Fair enough, Just curious if you were much higher on White than the other two.
I don’t think Rob’s higher on White.
Just on this mock.
I’ve seen Rob’s comments on Macdonald where he could go higher than this sometimes.
Too true. Was curious if the Combine changed his mind.
Good question though. I’d also be interested in Robs answer about how he values them and compares them.
100%
Colin Cowherd with some positive words about the Seahawks here (and the likelihood of the QB they draft succeeding — if they take one):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8Ox4bjGoZw
He makes some great points here and he is right. The landing spot for these rookies QBs is a critical factor in whether they will be successful or not.
With Drew Sanders where you going get a ILB because right it’s a mess. Mazi Smith at 37 l just that’s to high and I think White at 37 more likely. To be quite honesty we aren’t going to fill all are needs for this team. The majority of players we do draft are juniors at 21 years that come in and because of inexperience they get injured or it takes them a year to get use to the pro’s. I remember you saying Seattle seems to get DTs in the 4th. I have one those rule for never pick a RB or WR in the 4th we absolutely bombed with those 2 positions. JS/PC have never took a WR and a CB in the 1st round but the media always has us taking one. I’m pretty sure of this you got pick 5 and pick 52 right.
Love the mock
Rob. Know you did a high character list.
But what about a high character/BAMF/freak list?
Curious by position – from what I’ve read this a decent target list:
1T – Mazi, Pickens (former 5*), Benton
3-4 DE – White (Chris Jones comp), Ade Ade, Kancey (long/big enough?), Van Ness (same?)
OLB – Anderson, McDonald, Nolan, Sanders
ILB – Henley
S – Skinner, Brown, Brown
CB – Brents
Also do you really think Tyree can’t grow into a decent 3-4 end, surely he can put on. 20lbs + of good weight
Thx in advance
Didn’t Mazi get arrested for an illegal firearm in his car, or something similar?
What’s that have to do with his character? If you actually cared to look at the details, it actually shows he was being responsible, didn’t fight anything, and he had taken his concealed carry course, but was just waiting on the license to issue.
Wow.
I’m really going to have to wrap my head around this.
This is really something.
If he hits the benchmarks and achieves the escalators, do we know if that turns the following year into guaranteed money?
If I am reading that correctly, it is seven benchmarks. The fifth line has 80% playing time, 10 wins and playoffs. These will be tough to meet because it requires they all be met. The hardest? Completion % and playoffs.
The way I understand it, Seattle’s original offer was 3 years /$25M and Geno asked for incentives if his performance improved. How cool is that? Apparently Jody Allen signed off on the incentives and she was impressed by Geno’s willingness to tie his salary to improvement and team performance.
Cha, the way I read this is even if he hits all the marks, the escalators will count toward 2024 cap, not 2023.
Not Cha, but that seems right. They actually increase the 2024 salary but are not guaranteed. So, he could be cut or traded and we wouldn’t be responsible for them. I still am desperate to see the signing bonus.
Just according to these tweets the 2023 cap won’t be changed by anything Geno does this coming season.
What’s blowing my mind is that these escalators come in the form of roster bonuses.
I have never heard of a roster bonus being guaranteed. An option bonus, maybe.
So Geno could have a great year, plus up his roster bonuses, and then the Seahawks could cut or trade him with no cap responsibility before the roster bonus due date.
The only thing they would be on the hook for is the proration of his signing bonus.
Maybe it’s me, but the FO are looking like the smartest guys in the room so far this offseason.
Just don’t get cute on draft day guys
Damn really impressed with how creative a deal got done, totally fair to pay him for top performance, I had no idea they would be able to cut bait after one year with no guarunteed money, that is almost too good to be true…100% sets up a QB (or two) to get drafted
But I thought he was defo getting $30-35m a year?
Nope. 40
This is great news. This gives the team an easy out after year one without an huge dead cap hit. It might make it harder to trade Geno, though, due to the escalators to the contract that the next team would have to pay. This is a very unique contract structure from others that I’ve looked at. IMHO, I don’t see Geno improving on last years numbers with a tougher schedule and the distinct possibility of a bit of regression. Now, we really need OTC to get this on their site!
If Geno has a better season in 2023 than he did last year, I think there will be a team willing to trade.
cha,
The deal seems to be getting better and better every day. I know I was personally one that said draft a QB at five and not give Geno a big contract, this could be a blend of the best of both worlds.
1. Geno can make more $ for improving his performance and proving last year was a fluke.
2. We could draft a QB at 5 and there’s no pressure to throw him to the wolves
3. If Geno falters, we have an easy out
4. If Geno does well and the rookie isn’t ready, we have much more open cap space to still build the team.
This is blowing my mind.
I’m definitely not complaining. The initial 3yr/$105M had a ton of people upset. I didn’t quite know what to think and the details were going to tell the story. What a MAGNIFICENTLY team-friendly story
The deals screams QB at #5 to me.
It looks like it’s custom built for a team who can take a prospect and sit him,. They can get him a few snaps here and there in year 1, then fully compete for the starting job in year 2. If you need that 2nd year of seasoning, you’re covered.
There are so many ways this could play out and every one of them is a good deal for the Hawks.
How about Will McDonald IV or Michael Mayer for a surprise pick at #5?
Not happening
I have to say if this happens I will never watch another Seahawks game
Absolutely love this mock draft but I’m prepared for disappointment. I don’t think you could have watched the Seahawks off seasons for the last half decade and not be conditioned for disappointment.
On another note reading through the comments and I saw Eric’s comments on Jalen Carter being the clear cut number one tackle etc etc. I haven’t seen every Georgia game but I have seen half a dozen of them and I’ve never seen Jalen Carter dominate a single one. And when I watch Aaron Donald for example a different player I understand but it’s the opposite which game doesn’t he dominate? So I don’t get these narratives where so and so has a big name so he must be dominant. I think this is where Seattle media and fandom is at they’ve decided Jalen Carter is absolutely dominant and they’re just not going to be moved off of that idea
I don’t get it either. I get he has potential, but his tape and numbers just aren’t great.
Aaron Donalds first three college years:
122 tckls, 37.5 tfl, 18.5 sacks
Jalen Carter
83 tckls, 18.5 tfl, 6 sacks
Hey Rob, I’ve been thinking it could be likely that the Hawks double dip in QB this draft. One at 5, and one in the middle late rounds. That way you have a really good competition in camp and have potentially two starters if they cut Geno after 2023.
The question is who would they target and what round, Stetson really looked quite good at the combine, I’m not sure what round he would go, maybe either DTR or Bennet in round 3/4, I would not hate that. QB is the most important position and the commanders did something smart getting both RG3 and cousins since RG3 flamed out, i def wouldn’t mind if they went that route anyway.
Also would love a 7 round draft with all hawks pics (can ignore other teams) curious to see where you would grab certain players considering depth cliffs with this class
I’d prefer DTR or Jaren Hall if we’re looking at later QB picks. Bennett’s a strange duck and a lot of his passes were sailing on him during his combine throws.
Or Jake Haener
No offense but he looked like he didn’t belong amongst the qbs at the combine.
Who didn’t look good at the combine?
Had Geno not signed, I would think this possible. But if #5 is a QB, unless a quarterback they like really falls into the late rounds, I find this scenario highly unlikely.
I think there’s too many options elsewhere though
If you take one at #5 — you need to commit to developing that guy, not two guys
I agree. There are running backs, pass rushers and o-line later that could make the big team and not just the practice squad.
I realize this might sound inaccurate but I felt that the team that hires the minority coach or minority general manager should be the one getting rewarded with the comp picks.
Sounds completely reasonable to me. Like Rob said earlier, the comp pick system seems broken right now. The Niners traded most of their native picks in the Trey Lance deal, but now they’re getting seven comp picks. This just seems idiotic to me. One team should not be able to get that many picks IMO, especially the Niners ha!
Very nice two-round draft. I’m in.
After that, I hope Seattle drafts a couple offensive weapons for Geno and the QBOTF. One of the 4.3 receivers and a good running back. I just feel like DK, Tyler, and Walker aren’t enough in today’s NFL.
There aren’t enough draft picks to fill all the holes. Even on PFF after fleecing the Raiders for 7 extra picks and still getting Levis or Richardson, it can’t be done. So I’m really interested in which free agents Seattle can pick up.
First of all, love the mock Rob! I really think you might have nailed the first 5. It’s a compelling narrative. I do think it’ll be interesting to see what the Texans and Raiders do in free agency. I do wonder how/if they will try to get Richardson on the field in Year 1, alongside Geno.
Second, I was planning to come here and chime in that I think the Hawks will consider trading back from #20. There’s just a lot of comparable options between 20-30, including Kancey and Ade Ade. Personally, I am just enthralled with Ade Ade’s traits.
But now I want to argue against myself.
I think you’re right, White’s length is just a better fit for the system, as a true 5Tech.
And, yes, there very well might be a run on the position from 20-30. It’s a premium position! But instead of valuing the extra pick, they might just want the best of the bunch. It’s a good spot to be in to take the one guy you believe in, no frills. I keep wanting to see picks 20-45 as interchangeable, and the Hawks will want to add a pick in the early 3rd, but maybe they’ve learned their lesson from being burned one too many times. Choose the guy you believe in, that fits what you want, and be happy that you’re ahead of world-class drafters.
I just don’t think it’s worth the risk to move down from 20. Yes there are a lot of good options at 20, but just look at Rob’s mock. Those good options go really quickly between 20-28. There’s a great chance one of:
Kancey
Van Ness
White
McDonald
Branch
Ade Ade
Will be there. Wait 5-8 picks later and the there’s no telling who will be left. These are all solid players that I think will be on Seattle’s radar. If you get a QB at 5, you have to nail that #20 pick. I think that the pick will come from this group and I just don’t think it’s worth risking missing out on one of them. (Especially if there’s one that they really like)
Can someone explain Geno’s “escalators”? Im curious because they come in the form of a roster bonus. What if he reaches his numbers, but then isn’t on the roster? Or another roster?
That’s what makes this so tremendous.
If Geno hits those numbers in 2023, he gets a big roster bonus sometime in 2024.
But the roster bonus doesn’t have to be paid by the Seahawks! They can cut him, which means it just evaporates into thin air, or trade him to another team, who will pay the roster bonus (or renegotiate it).
Mike Florio with a detailed look at Geno’s contract:
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/03/09/seahawks-can-escape-geno-smith-contract-after-one-year-28-million/
The deal is perfect for an ‘Anthony Richardson redshirt’
Yes.
Now that we know roster bonuses are involved, and it is designed with outs after one season, I’m struggling to grasp how close this was to the deal I proposed in November.
Apparently I am a wizard from the future.
I’m scared.
😂
Tha Amazing Kreskin
#yesiamold
This makes me so happy. This is the next best thing to not signing him to a new contract at all. Now, just draft a freaking QB!
Can someone smarter than me explain year 1 cap hit?
We don’t actually know yet because they haven’t revealed the signing bonus and year one base salary. We know he got $28m. The signing bonus will be decided over the length of the contract (3years). So, if it was a $21m signing bonus and then a $7m base salary, the total for year one would be $14m ($7m base plus $7m prorated signing bonus). But, we don’t know that yet.
*divided not decided.
Based on Florios write up I am guessing
$24m signing bonus / $51m salary / $30m potential roster bonus escalators
Cap hits
2023 $11.3m
2024 $30m ($45m if escalators met)
2025 $33m ($48m if escalators met)
$16m dead cap if they cut him in Feb before the $12.7m of salary full guarantee kicks in.
Same if they trade him March 2024.
How weird is it that there are 4 QBs in this draft class, and the general consensus seems to be that they’re ALL worth a top pick? Great year to want to draft a QB.
Read on Field Gulls that the first two top 30 visits for the Seahawks are OT Dawand Jones and S Jammie Robinson. Things that make you go Hmmm
It’s draft season so you never know what’s real and what’s smoke screen. However, it does give me some hope that at least they are considering BPA.
Those VMAC visits are precious & limited. They have been significant indicators of interest in the past, so I doubt that they waste them on smokescreening.
Love this mock. Great work Rob.
This is the way!
Just want to echo what everyone else is saying – excellent content this draft season! I think this draft for the Seahawks would be about perfect.
I feel like the Geno contract is just right as well – if he plays like he showed early last season and like he believes he can, he will get paid like a top 10 QB. And the Seahawks will be a playoff team with a chance. If he falters they can move on without much of a hit. Geno has bet on himself big time! I hope he has a tremendous season and makes that contract look like a steal!
Dangerous waters ahead.
This draft would be fantastic. Love every pick. Dream draft. Talent + need is a perfect scenario. Hopefully, LB can be helped w/ FA.
God I hope this is how the first four picks go.
Would absolutely love that draft if Seattle comes away with those players.
Good article. Your picks are credible and you’ve done your homework. Whomever the Seahawks pick this draft, I think it will be a second “best draft” candidate and should propel the team to top-tier status in a short period. I like the concept of picking Hooker as a QB out of the first round. He’s been injured but could sit for a year or two behind Smith. He could be the sleeper QB like RW was.
Should the team be looking at David Long, the Tennessee Titans free agent linebacker? I read a stat that said he was the only linebacker (with enough snaps to qualify) who allowed less than one yard gained per tackle. Given as Brooks was worst at over 7 yards, and Brooks 5th worst, Long might be a plus.
😬
I’m fine with that — sounds like they’ve told him they’ve got other business to do first and it’ll have to be at a certain price
Sorry, Barton, not Brooks was worst.
Apparently (La Canfora) we have discussed with the Bears about the price of their #1 pick. It has to be for a QB.
Here’s the link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/03/09/nfl-draft-mock-quarterbacks/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
FWIW — I think if they trade up to #1, it won’t necessarily be for a QB
I really think they like Will Anderson and believe he’s the ‘game-wrecker’ they don’t have on defense
You’re right. I considered Texans drafting a QB and Cards trading down, but both aren’t certain, and then both would go for Anderson.
I mean, I remember how we were talking about him before last season and how it would be a dream come true if we could draft high enough to even get a sniff of him.
But now with these QBs staring us in the face, I don’t know. But maybe, just maybe, they will have seen what they can do with a QB like Geno and believe they can slot in anyone and have similar success? DTR?
I also don’t know if they got an answer to the question about why he wasn’t as dominant this season. Was it really just offenses shifting that much focus to him like he mentioned in that interview? Was he holding back (doesn’t seem like his nature)? Playing through injury?
Rob, I just can’t see Anderson being the top player in Seattle’s eyes. I think they would want more of a athletic freak at #5, which Anderson is not and there are concerns as to how well his dominance will translate to the NFL. What is his dominant trait other than instincts? He’s 235 lbs and not considered strong and you have to wonder how much his game benefited from playing on a stacked Alabama team.
No, I think a better argument can be made with one of the quarterbacks being the top player in Seattle’s eyes. We’ve all seen everything they’ve done since last off season suggests this is the plan. The signing of Geno says this is the plan and which player is going to have the bigger impact on your team a franchise QB or a LB?
I mean come on, its draft day, John Schneider is on the clock with pick #5. Anthony Richardson or Will Levis and Will Anderson are still available… John Schneider is personally running to the podium with a QB’s name on that card. He won’t be able to help himself lol, not after Mahomes and Allen.
But, if you think Seattle is taking a QB at #5, theres probably a good chance John and Pete see it as their best option as well. Do you really think that Pete and especially John are going to leave that choice to chance at #5?
Seattle trading up to #1 has to be a realistic possibility doesn’t it?
“You’re never going to have a chance like this again. You’re never going to own #5 and #20 and have the stock to hand to move up and get a quarterback who you can feel good about delivering glory to this franchise.”
I have to believe John and Pete see it the same way and and if thats the case, don’t they go get their guy?
The only way I could see them staying at #5 is if they know one of the QB’s they are comfortable with falls to #5. The QB’s could make this draft more unpredictable than normal.
Could you please do a mock with Seattle trading up to #1? I think its something we should consider.
Charles Cross wasn’t an athletic freak.
Anderson is 253lbs per the combine, not 235lbs
He also has A+++++ character and production
Sorry, your correct about the weight, but does that really change anything here?
Well it makes him a much more viable option and as I said — the character, production and attitude will be very appealing. The determining factor on how freaky he is will be his short shuttle. His numbers are not that different to Bosa/Garrett etc. But they ran amazing short shuttles. Hopefully he runs a shuttle at pro-day.
The only way you draft Will Anderson is if your happy with Geno Smith.
Or they really like Will Anderson.
It’s a bit pointless to go down this road. It’s hardly beyond the realms of possibility the Seahawks rate highly someone who is universally… rated highly.
And Cross really isn’t a good example, he’s athetic enough to be a good LT and he was their best option with that pick.
The same can’t be said about Anderson yet, is he athetic enough to be sucessful rushing the QB in the NFL? It remains to be seen.
Cross is a perfectly good example.
7.88 three cone — poor
4.61 short shuttle — average
26 inch vertical — poor
He ran a good forty and split, as did Anderson.
My argument doesn’t need me to show evidence that Will Anderson is the second coming of Myles Garrett. I simply needed to illustrate that the Seahawks took someone in the top-10 who is not a freakish athlete to counter what you suggested. Cross is a perfect example for me.
Cross had a 30.5 inch vertical at his pro day, so he tested explosive in that one category.
I think you have a very exclusive view on Anderson there. Some people doubt his ceiling. I have never read anyone that doubts he can rush the passer in the NFL. Where did you get the idea that he is such a bad athlete?
Some free agent news…bring back Bobby? https://nfltraderumors.co/seahawks-have-been-in-contact-with-bobby-wagner-about-return/
The words Schneider used were very careful and deliberate
Certainly sounds like they’ve told him they have other business to take care of at the start of FA and if there’s a chance down the line, they can talk again
This morning’s NFC West wrap up…move down to Seahawks news…Jason La Confora report is especially interesting…. https://nfltraderumors.co/nfc-notes-mike-mcglinchey-49ers-cardinals-matthew-stafford-rams-seahawks-geno-smith/
Just posted an article reflecting on it
Geno’s incentives details:
“Brad Spielberger, Esq.
@PFF_Brad
Seahawks QB Geno Smith’s incentives are tied to his 2022 stats in five categories, per source:
$2M each for:
– 4,282 yards
– 30 TDs
– 69.755% completion %
– 100.874 passer rating
– 80% playtime & 10 wins/playoffs
Extra $5M if he hits them all
For clarity’s sake:
The upside comes via roster bonus escalators in 2024 and 2025
If Smith hits or exceeds his 2022 benchmarks in 2023, then he boosts the value of his 2024 roster bonus
So max of $15M escalation in 2024 and 2025 based on 2023 and 2024 performance
Technically they’re escalators not incentives. 2023 there won’t be any additional charge”
Rob, this mock draft fits in perfectly to what Seattle needs to exceed into the next level, both sides of the trenches are covered and a future QB for the next how many years sought and now can move on to other positions of need. A TE,WR,CB,LB and G would be some of the positions I feel needs filling most quickly to solidify this team and with Geno’s deal, it gives you that option to go out in either FA or the draft and so it. Rob, I’m interested to know who you’d pick with Seattle later picks and which positions you most concentrate with them. An exciting month and half coming up, just hope JS goes with the same thought process as he did last year.
This is probably the best mock for the Seahawks so far. Richardson is a great fit for this team. Only gripe is that I would love Van Ness or Darnell Washington at #20 as they were still available
What has happened regarding Noah Sewell, he was seen as a 1st to high second pick entering the early draft analysis and seems to have all but disappeard. Is it the lack of speed in coverage? Looks like a pretty good run stuffer.
I watch that first game against Georgia, and he looked lost. He was just so slow to diagnose and react.
I like that draft, but really interested to see White taken that high when he’s ranked 51 on PFN and 90-something at PFF. This isn’t to say Rob’s evaluation is off, just that if he’s going to be available so much later taking him at 20 seems like a reach.
Of course, the league could also see him as Rob sees him and those boards are full of poo.
Ben jones released by titans!
Suspect he might retire
That was literally the most perfect mock draft for Seahawks I’ve ever seen. 👏👏👏👏👏
I love this draft. Richardson is so enticing. I like Levis a lot too. If Wilson leap frogged then and both were available I’d be interested to see who they pick. No combine for Mazi and him dropping is a nice thought.
In regards to FA I came across something about Azeez Al Shahir, LB from San Fran. Really showed out when Greenlaw got hurt in 21. Blocked by Warner and him all his career. He turns 25 and would look good in blue and green as an alternative to Holcombe
I would prefer Ade Ade over White but the rest are key targets
Rob,
Please share something intriguing about Smith at 20…inquiring minds want to know…
Also, Mazi makes me think Red Bryant – a long, athletic run-stopper of Huge proportions – Red was Far more effective at the 5-Tech due to such quickness, arm length, and tenacity to support the left Edge with tremendous penetration. book end DE’s make sense since it looks as though Shelby Harris is moving on. A Big-10 stud. Yes – he’d be a Great pick-up…just feels like a move Superbowl teams make.
Your thoughts?