Category: Game Tape (Page 3 of 8)

What to make of this guy? He’s 6-7, weighs 241lbs and is one of the best athletes in college football. When Daniel Jeremiah asked 20 NFL insiders who will be the best defensive player in the league in five years time, one answered with Jordan.

Cue the hype.

Jordan was on a lot of people’s radar before that article, but it certainly brought about some national publicity. The league is becoming a place where bigger, faster and stronger succeeds. There’s unlikely to be anybody bigger, faster or stronger on defense than Dion Jordan in the 2013 draft.

Yet despite all the great freak-of-nature qualities, he’s not a brilliant pass rusher. Jason Pierre-Paul was raw at USF but he displayed some natural pass-rushing ability. He was consistently threatening off the edge, he showed better technique than you’d expect for a JUCO transfer. It’s easy to say after the event, but a lot of people were high on JPP. What’s more, he wasn’t just a tall athlete – he had a prototype physique for an elite pass rusher. He’s added weight since joining the pro’s, but only his background and lack of experience prevented him from being a top-1o shoe-in.

Jordan lacks a lot of that natural pass-rushing ability. It’s not really a surprise – he was a wide receiver in high school. His Scout.com profile listed hands and concentration, size and red-zone ability as positives during recruitment. With teams looking for athletic, big tight ends it wouldn’t surprise me if a few consider moving him to that position. Here’s a few quotes before he committed to Oregon in 2008: “I have a good combination of size and speed. I am great at creating mismatches on linebackers and can run down the field and make things happen. I’m pretty exciting on the field.” His HS Head Coach at Chandler, Jim Ewan, chips in: “The upside to Dion is that he could play three spots, TE, WR or DE.  He takes pride in doing all three. I think that he will end up a big WR, who can move into TE when needed.”

It wouldn’t be the craziest story if he returned to offense. After all, he’s going to face many challenges as a 6-7 pass rusher.

The first issue is leverage. Tackles are going to have a pretty big target to punch in the chest. Is he ever going to be able to effectively bull rush or dominate a tackle with his hands at 6-7? I’m a big sceptic there. The best way to combat this is to be so much better yourself when it comes to upper body strength or as an elite speed-rusher. Jordan is neither – a great athlete for a guy his size, but not one of the great edge rushers in college football. In fact it’s bizarre to see a defensive end taking the coverage duties he gets at Oregon. At one point in the tape above he was practically lined up at corner back. Great pass rushers don’t tend to go that far away from the defensive line.

We’re two games into the season and Jordan – in his senior year – still has a chance to ramp it up and become a more polished overall player. Even if that doesn’t happen, it’s hard to rule him out as a high pick. Teams love physical potential and Jordan is one of the best. Defensive ends are among the most athletic players on a roster these days – it’s one of the main reasons why offensive line play is down across the league. How can a big, cumbersome tackle or guard expect to match-up against a guy like Pierre-Paul? The best athletes in college football are playing defense these days and not offensive tackle. It’s creating a problem for NFL scouts when they look for O-lineman, and it’s forcing teams to look for the next great athletic defensive end.

Jordan could be that guy. Or maybe he goes back to his roots and ends up at tight end? Either way he’s an interesting guy. And rest assured he’ll be talked about a lot between now and April.

We’ve talked about Geno Smith a lot on this blog and it’s no surprise he’s starting to generate hype. When West Virginia appointed Dana Holgorsen as coach, they pretty much guaranteed they’d have a prolific passing offense for the foreseeable future. Holgorsen is a Mike Leach disciple – the pair worked together at Valdosta State in the 1990’s and then at Texas Tech a few years later. He built his reputation as a coordinator at Houston and Oklahoma State and helped make guys like Brandon Weeden prospective first round picks.

Smith owes a debt of gratitude to Oliver Luck (Athletic Director at WVU). Without Holgorsen, he doesn’t get anywhere close to the attention we’re seeing today. He could be a first round pick. He could win a major bowl game. Put even a semi-capable quarterback into this offense and it’ll provide results. Smith is way beyond being semi-capable.

Yet the offensive power at WVU is both a positive and a negative in terms of his pro-potential. It’ll provide the gaudy number required to make scouts notice. It’ll probably convince a GM or two in the league that they need to have this guy on their team. What it won’t do is prepare Smith for the ‘NFL experience’. In fairness, there aren’t many college offenses that can truly prepare you for the NFL. But playing in a wide open spread scheme that isn’t remotely close to the pro-game isn’t a great stepping stone. It also creates pressure because media and fans expect the same statistical results at the next level, when that isn’t possible. We’re seeing this with Brandon Weeden, who at Oklahoma State could consistently take a 5-7 step drop from the gun and rely on a one-paced strike ball to find Justin Blackmon in a wide open field. Weeden was all over the place in pre-season for the Browns.

Smith takes his fair share of snaps under center, but there are also multiple ‘Weeden plays’ where he’s just dropping the LOS to stretch the field, using a 4WR set and scanning for the open guy. This negates pressure, forces average college players into coverage and makes the most of his arm strength. It’s scarily effective in college and if you have a strong armed QB and good receivers you can make it work. It’s also a world away from the way the NFL works.

At the next level he’s going to need to play quicker. In fairness, he makes multiple reads and appears to make good decisions most of the time. But he’s going to need to do it at a much increased speed in the NFL. Can he throw a touch pass? And can he throw the touch pass under pressure to his third target? There are lots of nice looking plays in the video above, but really it’s not a great measure of how the player translates to the next level. He looked a lot less convincing against a tough LSU defense last year, despite also making one of the passes of the 2011 season in that game.

I don’t want to be too negative because I like Smith. I really like his potential if he’s afforded time in the pro’s not forced to start on a bad team like Weeden. Like I said, he could be a first round pick. He is making progressions, he’s technically gifted, he has a decent arm and he’s athletic. He’s going to put up better numbers than any other quarterback in the NCAA this year. He still has to deliver, even if the offensive scheme is helping – so it’ll be to his credit when he puts up the big stats. I’m big on improvisation and the way he runs that touchdown in on a broken play (9:11) is a huge positive.

Smith has the prototypical size, he seems to be fairly grounded and he learnt this scheme quickly. He just needs to cut out the occasional poor decision such as the ones witnessed in an ugly loss against Syracuse last year or the ten-step drop from the gun on 2nd and 2 at 2:15 in the video above, just to throw an incomplete screen pass. I like Smith more than Brandon Weeden and now that WVU are in the Big-12, it’s going to be fascinating to see him perform against the likes of Texas (should win easily) and Oklahoma (could be a good one).

Games I’m watching this weekend:

Utah vs Utah State

USC vs Syracuse

Washington vs LSU

Georgia vs Missouri

I’m going to be keeping an eye on Star Lotulelei tonight to see if he’s made strides forward after last year. A lot of people love that guy, I still think he’s only scratching the surface of what he’s capable of and needs to be more consistent. The USC game will be a good one to get in the bag considering there are multiple first and second round picks (offense and defense) on the Trojans roster who are eligible for 2013. It’s a similar situation for Georgia, who have a wealth of talent this year. My main focus of attention in the Washington/LSU game will be the pass rushing duo of Mingo/Montgomery. Thoughts to come over the weekend.

Chris Steuber is reporting Seattle will have scouts at the following games:

I’m told scouts from #Bears, #Bengals, #Browns, #Eagles, #Ravens, #Seahawks & #Steelers will attend #PennState, #Virginia game. #NFLDraft

— Chris Steuber (@ChrisSteuber) September 7, 2012

I’m told scouts from #49ers, #Giants, #Rams, #Ravens & #Seahawks will attend #IowaState, #Iowa game on Saturday. #NFLDraft — Chris Steuber (@ChrisSteuber) September 7, 2012

And finally… Bill Simmons says the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl and he likes the Russell Wilson story… a lot: “I’m picking a Ravens-Seahawks Super Bowl. And if when it happens, you’ll hear more about Wilson than any other quarterback this season: More than Brady, more than Rodgers, more than Peyton Manning, more than Tim Teb— actually, you won’t hear more about Wilson than Tim Tebow. ESPN and the NFL Network will make that impossible. But everyone else? Hell yeah!”

The NFL Playbook crew break down Russell Wilson’s pre-season tape. It’s more gushing praise for Seattle’s starting quarterback. Plus, all three predict Seattle to beat Arizona.

There’s been a lot of negativity about Logan Thomas’ performance against Georgia Tech this week. It wasn’t a great display, far from it. But neither is it worth the collective tutting among certain members of the draft community because he didn’t put up 400 yards and score multiple touchdowns like Geno Smith.

First of all, this was classic Virginia Tech. And by that, I mean lousy play calling at the start of a new season. It happened last year against Clemson (their first real test, and first defeat), against Boise State in week one the year after and Alabama in 2009. For some reason the Hokies are perennial slow starters before picking up speed as the year develops. The play calling has a large part to play.

In this one against Georgia Tech, they ran Logan Thomas in five of his first ten touches. He’s a decent runner, but he’s not Cam Newton. What’s more, he seems to be carrying a bit of extra weight this year and while he’s still a good athlete – he’s better off using his legs to extend plays rather than running the ball more than the back in the opening quarter. I get the impression he was never completely settled, always keeping the option to run in the back of his mind and taking an edge off his passing accuracy. He seemed to be a fraction off for most of the night. There wasn’t much flow to get at here – a lot of short stuff but not enough plays to stretch Georgia Tech. It was all so predictable and unchallenging. The fact Thomas wasn’t playing a great game didn’t help, but neither was he helped by a stodgy game plan.

Alarm bells rang across the country as he short-armed another short pass. It was a bit reactionary. He actually didn’t make any glaring errors, didn’t turn the ball over once and still won the game. For a further example of the bad play calling – when Virginia Tech were driving to save the game with seconds left they called the same short pass to the left sideline for minimal gain. Even on third down. Thomas pulled them out of the water on fourth down and they got a field goal to go to over time.

He’s the kind of quarterback who naturally doesn’t take a ton of risks, he plays a solid game. He’s got the arm to make most middle-range throws look easy. Fast forward to 3:39 in the video and you see a nice short drop, recognising the coverage and firing a dart that only his receiver can catch over the middle. It’s a good, solid completion made easy. His first touchdown pass shows excellent touch and placement. The pass at 7:38 is a very good throw fit into a tight window. His second touchdown is a nice play downfield, although the coverage isn’t great from GT.  The only really poor decision I see on the video is the pass at 4:51 which is a head scratcher. Is the receiver running the wrong route? It kind of looks like he just throws an ugly ball and he almost gets picked off.

Considering how negative people have been about this game, it’s still a 230-yard performance with two touchdowns and no turnovers with a further 40-yards rushing. He led his team from a losing position to a crucial victory against a tough conference opponent. If we’re saying that’s not good enough – and Thomas will play better – it’s testament to his potential.

Not every quarterback is going to show the technical quality of Mark Barkley or the mass-production of the Dana Holgorsen-coached Geno Smith. On Monday Thomas was compared to a cluster of quarterbacks none of which really fit (Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick). He has the same size and physical potential as Ben Roethlisberger (he’s not elusive like Big Ben) but his game is very similar to Josh Freeman. That might not excite people much these days, but there’s a place in the NFL for a starting quarterback with that skill set. He won’t make many mistakes, he’ll take what he’s given and he has the arm and mobility to be a difference maker.

For what it’s worth I don’t think he’ll declare for the 2013 draft unless he’s lights out. He didn’t attend the Manning Passing Academy this year and has another year to run at VT. I think the likelihood is he’ll stick around before entering the 2014 draft.

Credit where credit is due, this is the best Landry Jones has looked for a long time. Hopefully that is down to some form of epiphany at the end of last season rather than the quality of opponent in week one. Yet there are some encouraging signs here.

For starters, Jones looks slimmer. He was too big last year and his mobility was non-existent – he was like a great big block of stone in the pocket. Against UTEP he looked lighter and nimbler, his footwork was better and he kept a few plays alive. He still took some avoidable sacks, but there’s evidence of improvement. The key will be not slipping into old habits against stronger opponents.

Even so it’s good to see Jones has been working during the off-season. I’ve no way of knowing whether he got into a comfort zone last year but there are plenty of reasons why that could’ve happened. Oklahoma were the pre-season #1 team and many expected the Sooners to win because of their quarterback. Jones was being hyped up by multiple members of the national scouting fraternity as a top NFL draft pick. He’d also witnessed Sam Bradford’s positive rookie year having left the same offensive system. Life was good for Landry Jones.

Yet when the season began, he was awful. He relied totally on scripted plays, often throwing blind or without making any kind of read. He forced throws, he took sacks. He’d crumble under any kind of pressure. By the end of the year they were taking him out of the red zone and playing a rushing quarterback. He didn’t declare because he knew his stock had been obliterated. Instead of being the top-10 pick people were projecting in the summer, he was now a mid-rounder at best.

It looks like that experience acted as a wake-up call. This is only one game, but it’s better. He’s always had a good arm and the first touchdown pass is one of the best you’ll see all season. At 1:02 in the video above he drops back, makes a couple of reads before throwing to the opposite side of the field for a huge score to Kenny Stills. Note the Manning-esque stutter-step footwork. Note the arm – there are quarterbacks in the NFL who cannot make that throw. It’s incredible. He benefits greatly from elite pass protection on the play, but he makes the most of it.

There’s the usual dose of scripted plays here and one thing that will always bother me with Jones is the scheme. He’s programmed to avoid deviating away from what he’s told. The best quarterbacks in the NFL have multiple options at the LOS and make the correct decision as the play unfolds. The ability to improvise is a key, underrated aspect when looking at potential pro-quarterbacks. Defenses are not going to make life easy for you at the next level and being able to respond to adversity is a big-time characteristic. For Oklahoma, Jones more often than not knows exactly where he’s going to throw before he even leaves the huddle. This has led to mistakes in the past with teams second guessing the play-call and even in this video you’ll Jones snap, turns to his left and throw semi-blind to a covered receiver.

That won’t cut it at the next level, but there are positives in this video. If he can show a little more inspiration, continue to improve his footwork in the pocket and keep making big plays – he can propel his stock to a level many still continue to project. I remain sceptical for now, but he has a lot of football left to show he’s worthy of a place in round one.