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This is our penultimate mock draft. Next week’s update will be our last, and the one I enter into the Huddle Report before the inevitable 93rd placed ranking. I’ve made some changes in the first and second round.

A few team’s still give me headaches. What are the Jaguars going to do and more specifically, who is making their pick? With a lack of elite, top end offensive tackles beyond Matt Kalil, what are teams like Buffalo and Arizona going to do? Reach for need, move down the board or go for greater value at other positions?

Something about the Eagles suggests they’re primed to make a move up the board, but for whom? They can get good value at #15, but is there someone they just have to get?

Will there be a team in the 20’s that sees a prospect linger on the board beyond expectation? Will that provoke a phone-call to move up? And if that is the case, could a team like Kansas City, Seattle or Arizona benefit? That 11-15 region has been active in previous drafts. The Seahawks would probably love to get some 2013 stock. I wonder what that would be used for?

And I make no apologies for again mocking Courtney Upshaw to Seattle. The Seahawks need someone who can realistically play three downs in the same team as Red Bryant and Chris Clemons. The Seahawks need someone who can provide some extra pass rush and play hard against the run.  That screams Upshaw to me. I’m not going to conform to the other billion mock drafts out there. How many had James Carpenter going in the top-25? Don’t be shocked if Upshaw isn’t even on the board at #12.

In round two I have the Seahawks taking Doug Martin, who would be a steal at any point in round two. It may seem unrealistic that he’d still be on the board, but let’s not forget Ray Rice lasted into the 50’s. Teams believe they can find running backs later, and this is a deep class. Seattle’s re-signing of Leroy Hill and addition of Barrett Ruud has taken some of the pressure off needing to get a linebacker in round two. There will be options in rounds three and four, and let’s not forget that KJ Wright is a former fourth round pick.

Updated mock draft

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) Maybe they’ll take a kicker instead?

	#2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) Robert Griffin III can start looking for property in the capital. He probably already is.

	#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) There’s some talk Kalil isn’t such a sure thing here. File this under Minnesota ‘testing the water’. They will surely draft Kalil.

	#4 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) The Browns have to find someone to build around. Richardson is a future superstar.

	#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) The biggest spenders in free agency, Tampa Bay could still use a stud cornerback.

	#6 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) The Rams know they’re in a three-draft plan so they need to take whoever is highest on their board with this pick.

	#7 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) Jacksonville don’t do things by the book. Even if Mercilus isn’t the pick here, expect a surprise.

	#8 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) How much does Mike Sherman rate his former Texas A&M starter? We’ll find out if here’s still on the board.

	#9 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) Carolina could go in many different (defensive) directions. More than anything, they want guys who are scheme diverse.

	#10 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) The Bills are surely going to draft a left tackle here? Who’s the alternative blocker?

	#11 Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College) Scott Pioli loves guys like this – blue collar, high work ethic. Not always spectacular, but always solid.

	#12 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) Seattle needs to find a DE/OLB hybrid to fit into the defense and help the pass rush. Upshaw could go earlier than this.

	#13 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) Is it a case of offensive line at any cost, or could Arizona consider a pass rusher here?

	#14 Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis) One of the 3-4 teams will convince themselves they cannot live without Poe’s potential.

	#15 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) Philadelphia can afford to take a chance on this working out.

	#16 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) The hot name a week before the draft, Barron could go in the top-15.

	#17 Stephon Gilmore (CB, South Carolina) Tall, fast and athletic – the en vogue cornerback for the time.

	#18 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) They have a lot of needs, but lost Vincent Jackson and this makes sense.

	#19 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) Trading for Brandon Marshall will allow Chicago to concentrate on cornerbacks and defensive lineman here.

	#20 Peter Konz (OC, Wisconsin) Underrated player. Don’t be surprised if he goes earlier than expected. The best player at his position since Alex Mack.

	#21 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) A very solid player – but very solid players tend to get a little overrated. This is the range he should go.

	#22 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia) He can play guard or tackle. Cleveland must know they can get a top receiver early in round two.

	#23 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) Coverage skills are the issue here but eventually someone will pull the trigger on Kirkpatrick.

	#24 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) This guy was made to play in the AFC North.

	#25 Jerel Worthy (DT, Michigan State) I’m not a big fan but I can see why he could end up going in this range.

	#26 Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech) Mind-blowing potential given his size, athleticism and hands. He stood out despite limited targets in 2011.

	#27 Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse) Part of me wonders if Bill Belichick will see a guy like this as fool’s gold. Meh. We’ll run with it.

	#28 Shea McClellin (DE, Boise State) Green Bay’s priority has to be finding another pass rusher.

	#29 Nick Perry (DE, USC) Baltimore are well positioned to go with the best defensive player available here.

	#30 Kevin Zeitler (OG, Wisconsin) The Niners may well take a guard and Zeitler is a good one.

	#31 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) He’s flexible enough to work his way into New England’s scheme.

	#32 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) This would be a steal.

Round two

#33 St. Louis – Josh Robinson (CB, UCF)
#34 Indianapolis – Coby Fleener (TE, Stanford)
#35 Minnesota – Reuben Randle (WR, LSU)
#36 Tampa Bay – Bobby Wagner (LB, Utah State)
#37 Cleveland – Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor)
#38 Jacksonville – Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
#39 St. Louis – Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington)
#40 Carolina – Andre Branch (DE, Clemson)
#41 Buffalo – Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina)
#42 Miami – Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State)
#43 Seattle – Doug Martin (RB, Boise State)
#44 Kansas City – Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State)
#45 Dallas – Jared Crick (DE, Nebraska)
#46 Philadelphia – Brandon Weeden (QB, Oklahoma State)
#47 New York Jets – Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall)
#48 New England – Bobby Massie (OT, Ole Miss)
#49 San Diego – Ronnell Lewis (OLB, Oklahoma)
#50 Chicago – Jayron Hosley (CB, Virginia Tech)
#51 Philadelphia – Lavonte David (LB, Nebraska)
#52 Tennessee – Kendall Reyes (DT, Connecticut)
#53 Cincinnati – Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)
#54 Detroit – Mychal Kendricks (LB, California)
#55 Atlanta – Casey Heyward (CB, Vanderbilt)
#56 Pittsburgh – Amini Silatolu (OG, Midwestern State)
#57 Denver – Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)
#58 Houston – Brandon Thompson (DT, Clemson)
#59 New Orleans – VOID
#60 Green Bay – David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech)
#61 Baltimore – Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame)
#62 San Francisco – Brandon Boykin (CB, Georgia)
#63 New York Giants – Dwayne Allen (TE, Clemson)
#64 New England – Keyshawn Martin (WR, Michigan State)

The Seahawks have agreed terms with free agent quarterback Matt Flynn, formerly of Green Bay. ESPN is reporting a $26m contract over three years, with $10m in guarantees. Others have suggested it’s a base-salary of $19m over the same time-frame. Either way, Seattle’s ambitions in the upcoming draft just became a lot clearer.

Don’t expect a quarterback to be drafted in the first two or three rounds next month. Flynn and Tarvaris Jackson will compete for a starting role in 2012, with the situation likely to be reviewed at the end of the season. As we discussed yesterday, the Seahawks could already be identifying quarterback targets in the 2013 draft class. Flynn’s contract will offer the flexibility to move on in a year’s time if he fails. If he succeeds, the Seahawks could consider reviewing those plans.

We’ll have to wait and see how Flynn’s contract breaks down – particularly the guaranteed portion – but this could essentially be an incentive laden one or two year investment to see if he has what it takes to succeed as a starter. To date he has just two NFL starts after joining the Packers as a 7th round pick out of LSU in 2008. I’ve supplied tape (see above) from his finest performance of the two – a week 17 victory over Detroit back in January.

He’ll have to compete with Jackson, but should he win that battle – he’ll likely have a one-year trial to win the faith of the coaching staff and front office. I suspect the Seahawks will structure the deal with a get-out clause so if Flynn fails, they are free to move on in 12 months time. However, fans hoping the competition will also include a rookie drafted in the first two rounds will almost certainly be left disappointed.

Seattle is making it clear they are going to improve other areas of the team next month with their ‘impact’ picks (rounds 1-3). That’s not to say another quarterback won’t be drafted – it’s worth keeping an eye on the prospects expected to leave the board between rounds 4-6. But it appears obvious they’ll turn their attention to the pass rush, front seven on defense and running game in the first few rounds.

This is a calculated move which allows the team to concentrate on other areas in the draft, open up a healthy competition at quarterback and take a better look at a guy with only two starts to his name. Perhaps more importantly, it allows the Seahawks a chance to bide their time. The 2013 class of quarterbacks will be a healthy group, and it includes a player very close to this organisations head honcho. The signing of Matt Flynn may well satisfy the masses until the opportunity to pursue that particular player becomes available.

If you haven’t already, it’s worth studying up on the top three pass rushers in this draft class – Courtney Upshaw, Melvin Ingram and Quinton Coples. And don’t rule out moves to set up a full-blown assault on the quarterback class in 2013.

Free agency is in full flow, so before we get into this week’s projection I wanted to consider how it’s impacting the draft landscape:  

– The Bills are going all-in to sign Mario Williams and it seems like a deal is close. Williams will spend a third day with the team on Thursday as the two parties hammer out a contract which could threaten Calvin Johnson’s record-breaking extension. This is fantastic news for the Seahawks, as it increases the chances Buffalo won’t draft a pass rusher at #10. With so much money invested in one star defensive end, expect the Bills to target offensive lineman in round one.  

– Jacksonville likewise re-signed Jeremy Mincey, their best pass rusher. They still need more at the position, but having only been able to attract Laurent Robinson to Florida – could they possibly consider looking at a wide receiver at #7? They need to support Blaine Gabbert if they want him to succeed.  

– The Dallas Cowboys have been busy, acquiring Brandon Carr today and also hosting Dan Connor. This says to me that they’re trying to address key needs at cornerback and linebacker to draft an interior lineman in round one. Cordy Glenn and David DeCastro could be in play at #14.  

– The Seahawks re-signed Red Bryant and Marshawn Lynch, ensuring they weren’t left with any extra holes going into the draft. Linebacker is still an area of need with David Hawthorne (receiving interest from New Orleans) and Leroy Hill on the market, but Pete Carroll highlighted the position as an area for improvement at the end of the 2011 season. The Seahawks will kick the tire’s on the free agent quarterback market – which could be boosted in the next few days if players like Kevin Kolb are released. Matt Flynn and Chad Henne will only be offered competitive ‘Tarvaris Jackson’ type contracts, if they’re even offered a deal. This team appears to be setting itself up to attack the position next year to get the player the fans crave in Seattle.  

– Unless the team shows any serious interest in a player like Kamerion Wimbley when he’s eventually cut by Oakland, it appears the Seahawks will be set up to draft a pass rusher at #12. I’m not expecting the team to draft a quarterback until round three at the earliest, but Brock Osweiler and Kirk Cousins are probably the two players to keep an eye on in that range.  

– The Seahawks should be applauded for their work in free agency so far. The priority was always to re-sign Marshawn Lynch and Red Bryant. Job done. Anything else is a bonus.  

– It’s also worth touching on why it’s not the end of the world that Seattle will not be introducing Peyton Manning and Mario Williams to the media this week. This remains a very fluid rebuild for the Seahawks, it’ll take time and maybe every one of the five-years on Pete Carroll’s contract before you see his vision completely installed. Spending over $100m on Mario Williams would’ve excited a few people, but it would also mean potentially difficult decisions down the line. When you have a player on the kind of salary Williams will command, the cap ramifications could mean you’re not be able – for example – to franchise Earl Thomas when he’s up for renewal. Perhaps it’d be a case of keeping Thomas, but losing Kam Chancellor or Russell Okung? The Seahawks want to sign great players, but they also want to reward their own first and foremost. That’s how you build. While the options at #12 won’t be as emphatic as Mario Williams, they will still find a prospect capable of complimenting the teams pass rush.  

– One final quick thought – it seems like it’s becoming a six-player race at the top of the board. Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Matt Kalil, Justin Blackmon, Morris Claiborne and Trent Richardson are looking pretty safe to be the first six players off the board – with the only real debate at picks 4-6. Cleveland could draft any one of Blackmon, Claiborne or Richardson – with Tampa Bay and St. Louis picking through the scraps.  

It’s a two-round projection this week by popular demand. I’ve listed some of ‘the next best available’ for round three at the bottom and also offered some thoughts on what I don’t like about the projection (they’re never perfect). So before you throw your computer across the room (Doug) after seeing Seattle’s pick, please read my explanation.  

Updated first round mock draft

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The inevitable.

	#2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) The inevitable part II.

	#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) Minnesota won’t waste any time calling Kalil’s name. He has elite potential. The inevitable part III.

	#4 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) This is where it gets interesting. The Browns must have a plan. Will it be to reunite Weeden and Blackmon in Ohio?

	#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) The biggest spenders in free agency, Tampa Bay could still use a stud cornerback.

	#6 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) The Rams know this is now a three-draft plan. This guy will be a star, so take him and don’t look back.

	#7 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) The Jaguars need to improve their pass rush and will have their pick of the group at this spot.

	#8 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) Plan B if they can’t pursuade Peyton Manning to take his talents to South Beach?

	#9 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) Carolina will probably have a good look at Dontari Poe, but the upside of Cox could win the day.

	#10 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) Buffalo are desperately trying to get a deal done for Mario Williams. If they land the star prize, they’ll go offensive tackle here.

	#11 Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis) Nose tackles who weigh 345lbs and move as well as this guy don’t last long in round one.

	#12 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) The Seahawks’ draft priority is to improve their pass rush. Upshaw will have a big impact on Seattle’s defense.

	#13 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) Whoever is playing quarterback for Arizona next year, the Cardinals simply must draft an offensive tackle.

	#14 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia) The moves made in free agency will allow the Cowboys to target Cordy Glenn or David DeCastro at this spot.

	#15 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) Why not get a big possession receiver to compliment newly re-signed DeSean Jackson?

	#16 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) The talent is there, but teams have concerns about his 2011 tape and his run defense.

	#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) Cincinnati will want to make sure one of their first round picks is a corner, but DeCastro is hard to pass here.

	#18 Andre Branch (DE, Clemson) With the top offensive lineman leaving the board before the #18 pick, San Diego may fill another big need here.

	#19 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) Trading for Brandon Marshall will allow Chicago to concentrate on the best lineman available at this spot.

	#20 Peter Konz (OC, Wisconsin) There’s always a shock in round one. Konz is good enough to justify a pick this early and will play in the league for a decade.

	#21 Doug Martin (RB, Boise State) An extreme playmaker who will have an impact from day one. He could be the second coming of Ray Rice.

	#22 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) Cleveland could use another edge rusher and this guys production last year could intrigue the Browns.

	#23 Stephon Gilmore (CB, South Carolina) A smart performance at the combine will promote Gilmore’s stock into the bottom half of round one.

	#24 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) There are some legitimate concerns about Adams’ play, but Pittsburgh may take a chance.

	#25 Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College) Yes he performed well at the combine – but he’s still a middle linebacker, a position with a restricted value.

	#26 Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech) He’s a tremendous athlete who makes spectacular plays. It’s more than combine hype that puts Hill in round one contention.

	#27 Kevin Zeitler (OG, Wisconsin) He’s rising up the boards and could be seen as a solid pick for a team looking for a long term piece to their offensive line.

	#28 Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall) The Packers are running out of options to improve their pass rush and could consider Curry in this situation.

	#29 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) Having attacked the receiver market in free agency, San Fran could draft Kirkpatrick to play corner or safety.

	#30 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) The very definition of a defensive prospect who fits in Baltimore. A tough football player, simple as that.

	#31 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) His ability to line up in multiple spots could attract the Patriots, who are looking for more pass rush.

	#32 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Brown is full of potential and could go earlier than this. New York would be a nice landing spot.

Round two  

#33 St. Louis – Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor)
#34 Indianapolis – Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)
#35 Minnesota – Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)
#36 Tampa Bay – Bobby Wagner (LB, Utah State)
#37 Cleveland – Brandon Weeden (QB, Oklahoma State)
#38 Jacksonville – Reuben Randle (WR, LSU)
#39 St. Louis – Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State)
#40 Carolina – Jayron Hosley (CB, Virginia Tech)
#41 Buffalo – Ronnell Lewis (LB, Oklahoma)
#42 Miami – Mark Barron (S, Alabama)
#43 Seattle – Mychal Kendricks (LB, California)
#44 Kansas City – Bobby Massie (OT, Ole Miss)
#45 Dallas – Jared Crick (DE, Nebraska)
#46 Philadelphia – Nick Perry (DE, USC)
#47 New York Jets – Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
#48 New England – Shea McClellin (DE, Boise State)
#49 San Diego – Brandon Brooks (OG, Miami OH)
#50 Chicago – Dwayne Allen (TE, Clemson)
#51 Philadelphia – Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State)
#52 Tennessee – Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse)
#53 Cincinnati – Casey Heyward (CB, Vanderbilt)
#54 Detroit – Brandon Boykin (CB, Georgia)
#55 Atlanta – Josh Robinson (CB, UCF)
#56 Pittsburgh – Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina)
#57 Denver – Brandon Thompson (DT, Clemson)
#58 Houston – Josh Chapman (DT, Alabama)
#59 New Orleans – Lavonte David (LB, Nebraska)
#60 Green Bay – Kirk Cousins (QB, Michigan State)
#61 Baltimore – Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame)
#62 San Francisco – Orson Charles (TE, Georgia)
#63 New York Giants – Kendall Reyes (DT, Connecticut)
#64 New England – Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama)  

Best available in round three: Sean Spence (LB, Miami), Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington), Chris Polk (RB, Washington), Jerel Worthy (DT, Michigan State), Dwight Bentley (CB, Louisiana-Lafayette), David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech), Cam Johnson (DE, Virginia), Logan Harrell (DT, Fresno State), Bruce Irvin (DE, West Virginia), Robert Turbin (RB, Utah State), Mike Martin (DT, Michigan), Brandon Washington (OG, Miami)  

Things I’m not happy with (because a mock cannot be perfect…)  

– Brock Osweiler dropping to pick #51. In my opinion, he’s clearly the third best quarterback in this class and worthy of a tentative first round grade. However, opinion is mixed and it’s difficult to find a home for him earlier than this. The Seahawks might avoid the quarterback position in the first two rounds, but they must sprint to the podium if Osweiler is there in round three.  

– Kansas City really needs to repair their offensive line and it could hold them back considering the talent they have at the skill positions. At the same time, can they afford to pass on a future nose tackle who could anchor their defense for years to come?  

– I don’t do trades and the exception for Robert Griffin III has since been justified. However, I suspect we’re going to see an awful lot of movement this year – maybe more than ever. For that reason, I don’t expect the majority of mocks you’ll see over the next few weeks to hit the mark – including mine.  

– I’m concerned about the sanity of some readers (I’m looking at you, Doug) after mocking Upshaw to Seattle again this week. I know, I know. Look – I’m not doing this to provoke people, I’m not doing this because I’m unable to move away from my own high grade of Courtney Upshaw. This is not a man-crush. I actually intended to move away from this pick today. However, with events working the way they have in free agency and with Buffalo in pole position to re-sign Mario Williams, I worked through each pick carefully and couldn’t see a realistic way of avoiding it. I’m preparing my crow pie just in case the Seahawks pass on the guy on April 26th, but I will not go out of my way to deliberately make a projection I don’t trust. It was the same last year with Jake Locker going in the top-10 – I always believed it would happen… 100%. So why stray? We look at alternatives during the week and will continue to do so (expect a big article on this subject later in the week). For now – I apologise, but it is what it is.

We’re 50 days away from the 2012 NFL draft and just over a week away from the start of free agency. The complexion of the draft could shift dramatically when the market opens, with teams adjusting priorities and making deals. Where will Peyton Manning land? What about Mario Williams? We could be looking at a very different first round projection by April.

There are a few minor tweaks to this weeks mock, but no substantial changes. I’ll continue to project Cleveland trading up for Robert Griffin III rather than Washington. Although many people make the Redskins favorites at this stage, the Browns will have to physically reject the chance to draft Griffin III not to make this happen. Whatever Washington is willing to pay, Cleveland can better it with their two first round picks this year.

Some reports have suggested the Browns aren’t willing to part with the #22 overall pick. We’re in a period now where teams are jostling for leverage in negotiations, things will eventually pick up after the posturing is complete and a deal will be made. Cleveland appointed Brad Childress – a coordinator from the Andy Reid coaching tree – for a reason. The Redskins would have to be creative to beat the Browns to RGIII and I suspect they’ll be less inclined to do so knowing they can still draft Ryan Tannehill at #6 without giving up as much as three first round picks. Given time I expect Cleveland will do what it takes to get the deal done and it’s very much in their hands.

The prospect I’m most intrigued with at the moment is Alabama’s Trent Richardson. He won’t participate in Alabama’s pro-day after minor knee surgery, having already missed the combine. A player with such undoubted quality doesn’t need work-outs to prove anything, but teams will want to see him healthy and running prior to the draft. Richardson is good enough to be a top-five pick and could be drafted as a luxury by teams with a star running back already in the stable. For example, there’s nothing to stop Tampa Bay, Jacksonville or Miami deciding the guy is just too good to pass. If he’s an option for the Seahawks having just re-signed Marshawn Lynch to a four-year extension, he’s an option to partner Maurice Jones-Drew or Reggie Bush.

At the moment I have Richardson going to Kansas City, a team who could build their offense around a double-headed monster alongside Jamaal Charles. But if he did make it to #12, the Seahawks would have a choice to make. The concept of a Lynch-Richardson partnership is beyond exciting, yet Seattle really wants to improve their pass rush first and foremost. With a lot of the second tier defensive ends promoting their stock into round one, the Seahawks would be taking a big risk by not adding to their front seven in round one. At the same time, the depth at running back in rounds 2-3 is very good with the likes of Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, David Wilson and Chris Polk likely to be available.

Passing on a player like Richardson would be tough to handle, even though Seattle has one of the more productive running backs in the NFL. But if other teams picking in the top-ten are willing to look elsewhere, so could the Seahawks.

I can already hear the groans from some as Courtney Upshaw is once again placed with the Seahawks in this mock. I have to stick to my guns with this and call the board as I see it. There’s still a chance Upshaw could go higher than a lot of people expect, even in the top ten. A prospect like Melvin Ingram has momentum on his side after an impressive display at the combine, but over the next few weeks teams will go back to the tape. Below I’ve included two games from each prospect – Ingram against two tough opponents from 2011 in Nebraska and Clemson, Upshaw against Cam Newton and Auburn (National Champions) from 2010 and also this year’s BCS Championship game against LSU. Ingram takes the athletic edge, but on tape I firmly believe Upshaw wins out. Judge for yourself:

Melvin Ingram vs Nebraska & Clemson

Courtney Upshaw vs Auburn & LSU

Either way, it seems likely both players – and Quinton Coples – will be off the board when Jacksonville, Miami, Buffalo and Seattle have made their picks.

Updated first round mock draft

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) Indianapolis confirmed the inevitable this week. Peyton Manning will be cut, Andrew Luck will be the team’s new quarterback.

	TRADE #2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) The Browns have the ammunition to make this happen. Eventually, they’ll come to a deal with St. Louis.

	#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) Minnesota won’t waste any time calling Kalil’s name. He has elite potential.

	TRADE #4 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) I wouldn’t take Blackmon this early, but the Rams need a playmaker more than anything else.

	#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) Linebacker and cornerback are the two biggest needs on this team, but they must be tempted by Trent Richardson too.

	#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) If the Redskins don’t trade up, it’s hard to see them drifting into another year without some long term thinking at quarterback.

	#7 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) The Jaguars need to improve their pass rush and will have the pick of Ingram, Upshaw and Coples.

	#8 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) If the Dolphins sign Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne, their priority would have to be protecting that investment.

	#9 Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis) Players who weigh 345lbs and move as well as Poe don’t last long on draft day. Carolina will transition to more 3-4 looks.

	#10 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) Moving to a 4-3 defense makes Coples a solid fit here. The Bills desperately need to improve their pass rush.

	#11 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) Richardson is too talented to keep falling and if he drops out of the top ten, he probably won’t get past Kansas City and Seattle.

	#12 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) The Seahawks’ draft priority is to improve their pass rush. Upshaw will have a big impact on Seattle’s defense.

	#13 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) Whoever is playing quarterback for Arizona next year, the Cardinals simply must draft an offensive tackle.

	#14 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia) Dallas could attack the corner market in free agency, allowing them to target Glenn or David DeCastro at this spot.

	#15 Flecther Cox (DT, Mississippi State) Andy Reid hasn’t drafted linebackers early in the past and he might find it difficult to pass on a physical freak like Cox.

	#16 Andre Branch (DE, Clemson) New York needs to improve it’s pass rush. Branch has a ton of potential and can transition to the 3-4.

	#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) Cincinnati will want to make sure one of their first round picks is a corner, but DeCastro is hard to pass here.

	#18 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) With the top offensive lineman leaving the board before the #18 pick, San Diego may fill another big need here.

	#19 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) Floyd’s combine performance was good enough to confirm his likely position within the first round.

	#20 Nick Perry (DE, USC) Tennessee are another team that has to look at the edge rushers. The tape doesn’t always match Perry’s excellent combine performance.

	#21 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) Tall, physical cornerback who specialises in run support but his coverage skills need work.

	TRADE #22 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) St. Louis has some edge rush talent but they don’t have a space clogger in the middle. Brockers could be BPA at this stage.

	#23 Stephon Gilmore (CB, South Carolina) A smart performance at the combine will promote Gilmore’s stock into the bottom half of round one.

	#24 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) There are some legitimate concerns about Adams’ play, but Pittsburgh may take a chance.

	#25 Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College) Yes he performed well at the combine – but he’s still a middle linebacker, a position with a restricted value.

	#26 Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech) He’s a tremendous athlete who makes spectacular plays. It’s more than combine hype that puts Hill in round one contention.

	#27 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin) Nick Mangold, Alex Mack and Peter Konz. That’s how good Konz is leaving college.

	#28 Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall) The Packers are running out of options to improve their pass rush and could consider Curry in this situation.

	#29 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Wright could drop a bit after running slow times. San Francisco won’t care – they’ll find ways to max-out his talent in different ways.

	#30 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) The very definition of a defensive prospect who fits in Baltimore. A tough football player, simple as that.

	#31 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) The injury isn’t helping matters and although he has legitimate top-20 potential, he may fall a bit.

	#32 Josh Robinson (CB, UCF) A late riser after a great combine. New York are in a position to look for value.

The combine is in the books and it’s time to take stock on where we’re at with less than two months to go until the 2012 draft. I want to offer three thoughts today, starting with this week’s projection:

– Many people are tired of seeing Courtney Upshaw mocked to the Seahawks. However, there’s no point deliberately manufacturing situations that have no chance of happening. This team is zoning in on pass rushers and will almost certainly have the opportunity to draft one of the big three – Upshaw, Melvin Ingram and Quinton Coples. While speculation is rife about the Seahawks making a splash on Mario Williams, we have to remember that Pete Carroll and John Schneider are on the record for saying they’ll build this team through the draft. That means a pass rusher in round one, with only one obvious wild-card alternative (a certain Alabama running back, who is too good to pass if available at #12). No offensive lineman. No wide receivers. Sadly, no quarterbacks. This will be a situation where a need (pass rush) fits supply (defensive end) and the Seahawks aren’t exactly hiding their intentions.

– The Rams will trade the #2 pick, otherwise known as the rights to Robert Griffin III. Several teams interviewed the Baylor quarterback at the combine, but the Seahawks did not. Many wondered whether this was a sign of secret interest, comparable to Mike Shanahan’s stealth pursuit of Jay Cutler in 2006. That is categorically not the case and Seattle will not be trading with St. Louis. The situation is like poker – the Rams have a great hand and they’re looking to draw others in to increase the pot. The more people at the table, the higher the stakes. The Seahawks have no interest in helping St. Louis drive up the price. Cleveland, Washington and Miami are all reported to have discussed a possible trade and the more teams willing to fight over Griffin’s services, the higher the price becomes. An inter-division trade was never realistic and simply won’t happen, so walking out of the casino is Seattle’s best move. They’ve left the table – not interviewing Griffin III was a statement to the rest of the league. St. Louis are still going to get a great deal, but at least the Seahawks won’t be making it any sweeter.

– Various sources are talking up Peyton Manning and Matt Flynn to Seattle, but I understand interest is minimal and virtually non-existent in both players. For several weeks now we’ve suggested keeping an eye on the trade market for a deal that isn’t abundantly obvious. What we know is Manning’s eventual destination could be the catalyst for a trade which would see another current starting quarterback move to Seattle. Before everyone jumps to conclusions and assumes Mark Sanchez, we also understand the team in question isn’t one which has been heavily touted in the media as a suitor for Manning. The deal is far from probable, rather just possible – and will depend on a.) Manning’s health and b.) where he signs. There’s no guarantee that a deal will get done, indeed it’s been described as more unlikely than likely. However, it’s worth noting that the Seahawks will be trying to upgrade the position this off-season even though they may not draft a quarterback in the first three rounds.

Onto this week’s mock draft. I’ve included a second round in the projection.

Round one

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) Indianapolis will need to work out a way to build around Luck, and fast. This is a roster starting from scratch.

	TRADE #2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) The Rams are trading this pick, the only question is whether Griffin III will be a Brown or a Redskin.

	#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) Minnesota won’t waste any time calling Kalil’s name. He has elite potential.

	TRADE #4 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) I wouldn’t take Blackmon this early, but the Rams need a playmaker more than anything else.

	#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) Linebacker and cornerback are the two biggest needs on this team, but they must be tempted by Trent Richardson too.

	#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) If the Redskins don’t trade up, it’s hard to see them drifting into another year without some long term thinking at quarterback.

	#7 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) The Jaguars need to improve their pass rush and will have the pick of Ingram, Upshaw and Coples.

	#8 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) The Dolphins will pursue Peyton Manning and Matt Flynn and could look to improve their offensive line to support such a move.

	#9 Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis) Players who weigh 345lbs and move as well as Poe don’t last long on draft day. Carolina will transition to more 3-4 looks.

	#10 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) Moving to a 4-3 defense makes Coples a solid fit here. The Bills desperately need to improve their pass rush.

	#11 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) Richardson is too talented to keep falling and if he drops out of the top ten, he probably won’t get past Kansas City and Seattle.

	#12 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) People are sick of seeing this projection, but in this situation it would be a certainty. I’m not going to project scenarios that won’t happen.

	#13 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia) Glenn showcased enough athleticism at the combine to suggest he can stay at tackle at the next level. He’s rising in a big way.

	#14 David De Castro (OG, Stanford) Dallas could attack the corner market in free agency, allowing them to target Glenn or De Castro at this spot.

	#15 Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College) Andy Reid has avoided drafting linebackers in the past, but may play it safe here and fill a position of need.

	#16 Andre Branch (DE, Clemson) New York needs to improve it’s pass rush. Branch has a ton of potential and can transition to the 3-4.

	#17 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Explosive athlete who will convince a team early in the draft that he’s worth a high pick.

	#18 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) The Chargers need to find pass rushers, but they also need to rebuild their offensive line. This would be a good start.

	#19 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) Floyd’s combine performance was good enough to confirm his likely position within the first round.

	#20 Nick Perry (DE, USC) Tennessee are another team that has to look at the edge rushers. The tape doesn’t always match Perry’s excellent combine performance.

	#21 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) Tall, physical cornerback who specialises in run support but his coverage skills need work.

	TRADE #22 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) St. Louis has some edge rush talent but they don’t have a space clogger in the middle. Brockers could be BPA at this stage.

	#23 Stephon Gilmore (CB, South Carolina) A smart performance at the combine will promote Gilmore’s stock into the bottom half of round one.

	#24 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) There are some legitimate concerns about Adams’ play, but Pittsburgh may take a chance.

	#25 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) He could go much earlier than this, but positional need could lead to a slight drop. Denver could use a talented young safety.

	#26 Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech) He’s a tremendous athlete who makes spectacular plays. It’s more than combine hype that puts Hill in round one contention.

	#27 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin) Nick Mangold, Alex Mack and Peter Konz. That’s how good Konz is leaving college.

	#28 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) He proved in Indianapolis that he has the physical attributes to match his mass-production in 2011.

	#29 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Wright could drop a bit after running slow times. San Francisco won’t care – they’ll find ways to max-out his talent in different ways.

	#30 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) The very definition of a defensive player who fits in Baltimore. A tough football player, simple as that.

	#31 Casey Hayward (CB, Vanderbilt) Bill Belichick likes to draft defensive backs early and he could entertain another cornerback with this pick.

	#32 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) A great athlete who might fall due to needs elsewhere. A tough player to project, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he went in the top-15.

Round two

#33 St. Louis – Kevin Zeitler (OG, Wisconsin)
#34 Indianapolis – Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington)
#35 Minnesota – Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State)
#36 Tampa Bay – Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)
#37 Cleveland – Rueben Randle (WR, LSU)
#38 Jacksonville – Jayron Hosley (CB, Virgnina Tech)
#39 Washington – Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina)
#40 Carolina – Mychal Kendricks (LB, California)
#41 Buffalo – Ronnell Lewis (LB, Oklahoma)
#42 Miami – Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse)
#43 Seattle – Doug Martin (RB, Boise State)
#44 Kansas City – Kirk Cousins (QB, Michigan State)
#45 Dallas – Jared Crick (DE, Wisconsin)
#46 Philadelphia – Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State)
#47 New York Jets – Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
#48 New England – Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall)
#49 San Diego – Shea McClellin (DE, Boise State)
#50 Chicago – Jerel Worthy (DT, Michigan State)
#51 Philadelphia – Brandon Thompson (DT Clemson)
#52 Tennessee –  Brandon Boykin (CB, Georgia)
#53 Cincinnati – Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)
#54 Detroit – Brandon Washington (OG, Miami)
#55 Atlanta – Orson Charles (TE, Georgia)
#56 Pittsburgh – Bobby Wagner (LB, Utah State)
#57 Denver – David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech)
#58 Houston – Josh Chapman (DT, Alabama)
#59 New Orleans – Sean Spence (LB, Miami)
#60 Green Bay – Devon Still (DT, Penn State)
#61 Baltimore – Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame)
#62 San Francisco – Coby Fleener (TE, Stanford)
#63 New York Giants – Dwayne Allen (TE, Clemson)
#64 New England – Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama)

In this week’s projection I wanted to contemplate the potential impact of the scouting combine, with work-outs beginning on Saturday. Who could rise? Who could fall? Will we see any significant changes when players have been tested and interviewed in Indianapolis?

I’ve already discussed the possibility that Zach Brown could be set for a boost after he tests at the combine – Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) may also surge up boards after he works out on Monday. Cox plays like a runaway train – he can be off-balance, but he’s all power and speed and can play both off the edge and inside in 4-3 and 3-4 looks. He’ll be listed above 300lbs but could run a surprisingly fast forty-yard dash for his size, potentially pushing him to the front of the class for interior defensive lineman.

Melvin Ingram, Quinton Coples and Courtney Upshaw are all jostling for position with all three likely to be drafted within the first sixteen picks. Ingram is expected to make the greatest impression as he’s clearly the most agile and will easily record the best forty-time. Coples and Upshaw can stay ahead of Ingram on a lot of draft boards by running respectable times and performing well in other drills. This is a big opportunity for Ingram, though.

Other players will emerge that have so far not been considered likely first round options. Rueben Randle (WR, LSU) was a victim of the Tigers’ offense and has a lot of pro-skills. He can jump ahead of several prospects with a good performance in Indianapolis and that element of unknown – and potential – could work in his favor. New England likes to draft defensive backs early and Casey Hayward (CB, Vanderbilt) could be a name to keep an eye on in the back end of round one.

Dre Kirkpatrick and Devon Still could be set for a fall. Alabama’s Kirkpatrick isn’t a great cover corner and his reputation is largely based on size, run support and hard-hitting. He was exploited by Florida’s John Brantley (not exactly a prolific SEC quarterback) and may not show the kind of fluid hips and straight line speed to warrant some of the inflated reviews he’s received in the last few months. Still hasn’t got the same high ceiling as a Michael Brockers or Fletcher Cox and could fall victim to need. He’s already a fifth-year senior with some previous injury history and teams may feel he’s already peaked and doesn’t possess enough upside to warrant a high first round selection.

I’ve maintained the trade touted in last week’s mock because I think it’s increasingly likely we’ll see a deal which will make Robert Griffin III the #2 pick. The most obvious trade partner is Cleveland, who would surrender their two first round choices to take the Baylor quarterback. Last week I looked at St. Louis going OT/WR with their new picks, this week it’s WR/OC. The center position is taking on an increasingly important role in the NFL and Peter Konz is an underrated prospect coming out of Wisconsin. Don’t be surprised if the Rams look to boost their interior with a pick like this. Will they take Blackmon at #4? It really depends on how they grade Riley Reiff, Mike Adams and Jonathan Martin. If they don’t see an offensive lineman worth the #4 pick, Blackmon has a shot.

As for the Seahawks – nothing much has changed. They’re still out of range for the top two quarterbacks, still needing to focus on their second biggest need at defensive end and still relying on which players leave the board before their pick to dictate the selection. Upshaw is the least likely to impress at the combine, but I suspect he’ll maintain a high grade on many boards and could easily be a top-ten pick. The trio of Ingram, Upshaw and Coples really could go in any order – making Seattle’s choice at #11 or #12 a question mark right up until Buffalo’s pick is called.

Updated first round mock draft

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The Colts might as well call the pick in now. Indianapolis will draft Andrew Luck. No trade offer will change that.

	*TRADE* #2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) Cleveland would need to part with both first round picks to draft RGIII. It appears likely some form of deal will take place here.

	#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) This would be a dream for the Vikings. They get a left tackle with elite potential.

	*TRADE* #4 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma St) If Blackmon is going to go this early, he’ll need a good performance at the combine. This might be too high for the Rams.

	#5 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) You have to believe Greg Schiano would love to draft Trent Richardson. Cornerback is also a need, so Claiborne is an alternative.

	#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) This would be a foolish reach but Shanahan wants his guy. If Tannehill really is going to go in the top-15 as speculated, Washington is the obvious choice.

	#7 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) Assuming the Jaguars attack the market for receivers in free agency, Gene Smith can concentrate on defense.

	#8 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) Carolina wants to use a lot of different defensive looks and Cox is scheme versatile. He could light up the combine.

	#9 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) A blistering forty yard dash could push Ingram up the boards. Right tackle is another likely target area.

	#10 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) The Bills could switch to a 4-3 and that makes Coples rather than Upshaw or Ingram a more likely pick here.

	#11 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) This could be Seattle’s ideal situation. Upshaw would have an instant impact, balancing out the pass rush with Chris Clemons.

	#12 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) This is a little high for me, but Scott Pioli will almost certainly like DeCastro and he has a little Logan Mankins about him.

	#13 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) Reiff is a solid, blue-collar lineman. But is he spectacular enough to go in the top 5-10?

	#14 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) Jerry Jones wants to rebuild his secondary. Jenkins is the best corner available, but needs to prove off-field issues are in the past.

	#15 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) Philly should do what it takes to keep DeSean Jackson grounded, then set out to draft the BPA. It could be Brockers.

	#16 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) The Jets need pass rushers but will be hard pushed to pass on the electrifying Wright to boost that stagnant offense.

	#17 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Brown could be set for a big jump after the combine. Cincinnati could solidify their defense with two first round picks.

	#18 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) Martin could suffer a fall if there isn’t an early run on offensive tackles. San Diego would get a bargain here.

	#19 Rueben Randle (WR, LSU) Randle struggled for an impact in LSU’s offense but he has a lot of tools to be a success at the next level.

	#20 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) Safety is a need for Tennessee and Barron is clearly the best available in this draft class.

	#21 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) I don’t expect a big performance at the combine, which will put Kirkpatrick’s inflated stock into perspective.

	*TRADE* #22 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin) A surprise choice, but the center position is growing in importance in the NFL. Konz has tons of potential and would be a fine pick.

	#23 Cordy Glenn (OG, Georgia) Glenn could play right tackle or move to guard. This would be a good fit for Detroit, even if they have greater needs.

	#24 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) This is the domino effect on a quiet left tackle market early in the draft. Pittsburgh need to bolster their offensive line.

	#25 Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College) He’s under sized but what a tackler – he’ll get close to 100 tackles in year one. Kuechly will also provide needed vocal leadership.

	#26 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) The Texans saw life without Andre Johnson and might add another receiver as insurance.

	#27 Casey Hayward (CB, Vanderbilt) Hayward could move into this range if he performs well at the combine. New England loves to draft defensive backs.

	#28 Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall) He has the production and enough power – he has a lot to gain at the combine by flashing mobility and speed.

	#29 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) Sanu can line up anywhere and make plays. San Francisco use a lot of gimmicks and needs a sure-handed catcher.

	#30 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) The type of player that just fits in with Baltimore’s defense. This would be a fantastic addition for the Ravens.

	#31 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) It comes down to upside and teams early in round one may be put off by an average ceiling.

	#32 Sean Spence (LB, Miami) Underrated linebacker who makes up for a lack of great size with speed, instinct, tackling and elite recognition skills.

This week I’m going to go against my better judgement and project a trade. It’s unavoidable. There’s a feeling within some front offices that Robert Griffin III won’t get out of the top three picks, even if that means he’s selected by the Minnesota Vikings. Teams with an eye on RGIII will have to weigh up how much they’re willing to spend to deal with St. Louis or Minnesota. I suspect it’ll take something special to get the #2 pick because the Rams will essentially be turning down the opportunity to draft Matt Kalil. St. Louis needs a deal that makes it worth their while – not in the future, but for now.

For those reasons I suspect Cleveland could be an appealing trade partner, with the Browns packaging their two first round picks to move up. This would afford the Rams the opportunity to fill two needs in round one and only suffer a small move down the board from #2 to #4. Cleveland recently appointed Brad Childress as offensive coordinator – a coach who has predominantly worked with mobile quarterbacks during his time with Andy Reid and at Minnesota. The Browns’ rebuild under Mike Holmgren has been slow progress so far, but Griffin III could rejuvenate the team and the fans in Cleveland. For St. Louis, they’d still have a chance to grab a much needed addition to the offensive line and draft a wide receiver later in the first round.

Whether such a move actually happens, we’ll have to wait and see. However, it seems increasingly likely Griffin III will be drafted in the top three. Those hoping the Seahawks will make a bold move to address the quarterback position will be left disappointed – Seattle isn’t going to trade up for a quarterback this year and are unlikely to address the position in round one.

A St. Louis/Cleveland trade could be the catalyst for an offensive-minded start to the draft. Tampa Bay would be in an ideal situation choosing between Morris Claiborne (they need to improve their secondary) and Trent Richardson (a potentially defining player for Greg Schiano’s run-centric system). By the time Jacksonville are on the clock, we may not see a defensive player off the board. That wouldn’t be a bad thing for the Seahawks, who appear determined to improve their pass rush early in this draft.

A lot is still to be determined by free agency and the combine which starts next week. Several players will shoot up the boards after the event in Indianapolis and keep an eye out for North Carolina’s Zach Brown. Sources tell us there’s a feeling that Brown could really propel his stock at the combine due to his overall athleticism and straight line speed. He’s broken sprinting records at UNC and could be set for a big leap, certainly into contention within the first twelve picks. In terms of free agency, Washington and Miami are both expected to be aggressive in the quarterback market. That could dictate what direction they go in round one. For example – if the Dolphins sign Peyton Manning, they could be inclined to go heavy on the offensive line to protect their investment.

Updated first round mock draft

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The Colts are cleaning house to make room for the Andrew Luck era. They might as well start talking about a contract now.

	*TRADE* #2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) Cleveland would need to part with both first round picks to draft RGIII. Would St. Louis pass on a shot at Matt Kalil?

	#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) This would be a dream for the Vikings. They avoid any awkward QB situations with Griffin/Ponder and take a left tackle with elite potential.

	*TRADE* #4 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) St. Louis softens the blow of trading out of Matt Kalil-range by drafting Reiff and adding a receiver later in round one.

	#5 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) You have to believe Greg Schiano would love to draft Trent Richardson. Cornerback is also a need, so Claiborne is an alternative.

	#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) This would be a foolish reach but Shanahan wants his guy. If Tannehill really is going to go in the top-15 as speculated, Washington is the obvious choice.

	#7 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) Assuming the Jaguars attack the market for receivers in free agency, Gene Smith can concentrate on defense.

	#8 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) Carolina wants to use a lot of different defensive looks and Still is scheme versatile. This is a big need for the Panthers.

	#9 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) Which team bites if Blackmon starts to fall? Joe Philbin worked in a Green Bay offense that was stacked at receiver.

	#10 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) The Bills could switch to a 4-3 and that makes Coples rather than Upshaw or Ingram a more likely pick here.

	#11 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) This could be Seattle’s ideal situation. Upshaw would have an instant impact, balancing out the pass rush with Chris Clemons.

	#12 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) This is a little high for me, but Scott Pioli will almost certainly like DeCastro and he has a little Logan Mankins about him.

	#13 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) The Cardinals need to upgrade their offensive line. The only question here is – would they prefer Jonathan Martin or Mike Adams?

	#14 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) He’s better in run support and his coverage skills are nothing to write home about. However, Jerry Jones seems to like corner’s with size.

	#15 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) Andy Reid doesn’t like drafting linebackers, so he might consider taking a chance on Brockers’ potential.

	#16 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) The Jets pass rush went a bit flat in 2011. Ingram could be moved around in the 3-4 and give things a jump start.

	#17 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Brown could be set for a big jump after the combine. Cincinnati could solidify their defense with two first round picks.

	#18 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) San Diego could look to upgrade their pass rush, but that offensive line also needs help.

	#19 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Electric receiver who would quickly become Jay Cutler’s BFF. Capable of having a big impact quickly.

	#20 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) Safety is a need for Tennessee and Barron is clearly the best available in this draft class.

	#21 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) Corner with elite potential, hampered by off-field concerns. Cincinnati has a reputation for dishing out second chances.

	*TRADE* #22 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) The second pick courtesy of St. Louis’ trade with Cleveland. The Rams take an underrated receiver to help out Sam Bradford.

	#23 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia) Glenn could play right tackle or move to guard. This would be a good fit for Detroit, even if they have greater needs.

	#24 Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State) Played left tackle at Iowa State but will kick inside to guard at the next level. I really like this guy.

	#25 Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College) He’s under sized but what a tackler – he’ll get close to 100 tackles in year one. Kuechly will also provide needed vocal leadership.

	#26 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) The Texans saw life without Andre Johnson and might add another receiver as insurance.

	#27 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin) Top-end interior lineman who could be the best in this class. Stuck out on a talented Badgers line and no surprise he turned pro.

	#28 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) The Packers could look at outside rushers, but Cox is capable of helping the pass rush from the five-technique position.

	#29 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) Sanu can line up anywhere and make plays. San Francisco use a lot of gimmicks and needs a sure-handed catcher.

	#30 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) The type of player that just fits in with Baltimore’s defense. This would be a fantastic addition for the Ravens.

	#31 Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse) A raw physical talent with plenty of upside. The Patriots are a hard team to project and have multiple options in this slot.

	#32 Sean Spence (LB, Miami) Underrated linebacker who makes up for a lack of great size with speed, instinct, tackling and elite recognition skills.

Drafting first round pass rushers has been more miss than hit over the years. Between 2005-2010, 24 first round picks were spent on 3-4 outside linebackers, orthodox 4-3 ends and specialists. This number doesn’t include interior defensive lineman or five-techniques. Of those 24 players, only seven could be deemed a success: DeMarcus Ware (11th overall, Dallas), Mario Williams (1st overall, Houston), Tamba Hali (20th overall, Kansas City), Chris Long (2nd overall, St. Louis), Brian Orakpo (13th overall, Washington), Clay Matthews (26th overall, Green Bay) and Jason Pierre-Paul (15th overall, New York). 

During those six drafts, a lot of the NFL’s sack production was found outside of the top round. In 2005, Trent Cole was a 5th round pick for Philadelphia and has since recorded 68 sacks for the Eagles. Elvis Dumervil was a steal for the Broncos in 2006 in round four and has 52.5 sacks in five active seasons (he missed 2010 through injury). Lamarr Woodley was taken with the 46th pick in 2007 and has 48 career sacks. The same pick in 2009 brought Connor Barwin to Houston (11.5 sacks for Wade Phillips in 2011) and Carlos Dunlap has so far lived up to some of his potential after dropping to the #54 pick in 2010 with 13.5 sacks for the Bengals. 

It’s not surprising that more players have been busts because that’s the way the draft works. However, a 29% success rate is a bit more surprising given the mass production teams have found in the mid-rounds. I would argue projecting defensive ends to the next level is one of the most difficult things to do. Sometimes you’ll see a guy dominate college lineman but struggle to have the same impact against the NFL’s best. It takes a combination of skills to be a productive pass rusher in the pro’s – in college sometimes it’s just requires speed. But as the Seahawks set about trying to upgrade their pass rush, it could be one of the riskiest picks they make in the Carroll/Schneider regime. 

There’s no rhyme or reason for successful defensive ends. Many expected Brandon Graham to have a big impact after a productive off-season that included a dominating Senior Bowl. So far, he’s been irrelevant for the Eagles – suffering with injuries and failing to make an impact despite Philadelphia’s bold move up the board to draft him. Carolina wasted a future first round pick in 2009 after trading back into the draft to grab Everette Brown. He had the edge speed and performance at Florida State, but was a bust in the NFL and San Francisco remain ever grateful for the first rounder. Derrick Harvey, Vernon Gholston, Jamaal Anderson, Jarvis Moss, Aaron Maybin, Larry English, Robert Ayers, Jerry Hughes – all players expected to have an impact, but became busts. You’re looking for strength, edge speed, a repertoire of moves or at least one move they’ve mastered, technique, leverage and hand use. Essentially, you’re asking for a lot. It still surprises me that a player who ticked all of those boxes – Jabaal Sheard – dropped to round two last April. 

Overall the 2011 group bucked the trend by producing a cluster of impact rookies. Von Miller won defensive rookie of the year for an impressive first season in Denver. Aldon Smith made numerous big plays for the Niners, while Washington’s Ryan Kerrigan also made the Pro-Bowl. JJ Watt and Adrian Clayborn both flashed at times for Houston and Tampa Bay respectively, with only Robert Quinn struggling to make an impression. Of the group, only Quinn relied mostly on speed in college. Perhaps there’s something to learn there? This week I’ve decided to drop Whitney Mercilus into round two for the first time in a while. He’s a player I’m still trying to work out, but could easily become part of either list – first round busts, or players who deserved greater faith after they dropped into day two. Expect further analysis on Mercilus before April 26th. 

The three pass-rushers likely to be on Seattle’s radar are Courtney Upshaw, Melvin Ingram and Quinton Coples. I suspect Upshaw would be the preferred option, but with all three likely to go in a similar range it could be a decision taken out of their hands. This week I have the Seahawks taking a chance on Coples – a player who divides opinion perhaps more than any other prospect this year. Some are intrigued by his potential and we saw at the Senior Bowl just what he’s capable of – he dominated throughout and was easily the best player on show. Others are suspicious of a senior campaign that was decidedly mediocre. 

Yet faced with a situation where both Upshaw and Ingram are off the board – plus a potential ‘wild card’ alternative like Trent Richardson – they may just roll the dice on adding to the small list of success stories at defensive end. Pete Carroll is a coach who believes he can motivate any player to produce results. This would be one of the greatest challenges of his career – and a lot of other GM’s and coaches are likely to be happy to give him the opportunity to take on this test. Upshaw is a complete football player in my view and while he may not have a ceiling to match other pass rushers, I expect he will have an extremely solid career with multiple 8-12 sack seasons. Ingram I’m less crazy about overall, but he’s also a unique prospect in many ways given his size and athleticism. Coples doesn’t just have the highest ceiling among the defensive players in this class – he also has a much greater floor if things go wrong. 

For the most part I’ve argued against Coples due to the scheme fit – an argument I’ve also made against Upshaw and Ingram too at times. However, it appears the Seahawks might be more willing to adapt their scheme than I first thought. That doesn’t mean completely abandoning their hybrid 4-3 system, but still incorporating new looks and being flexible with Red Bryant (if he re-signs) in order to create more of a pass rush. The Seahawks can’t keep relying on just Chris Clemons for pressure – and without a dominating three-technique, they may be forced to use a more balanced 4-3 front or consider more 3-4 concepts with two outside rushers. 

Coples would be a gamble, Seattle’s biggest risk/reward project in the Carroll/Schneider era. They’ve built a defense that plays with a brooding intensity – a young determined core of players who get under your skin. Coples at his best would add a touch of class to the team’s pass rush and could take the defense to another level. Yet Coples at his worst could undermine everything they’ve built so far. Carroll’s rebuild can’t afford to stall, the margins for error are huge. While this team may one day have to gamble on a quarterback, they could initially gamble on a defensive end. They have to hit on both. 

Updated first round mock draft

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The Colts are cleaning house to make room for the Andrew Luck era. They might as well start talking about a contract now.

	#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) Take this to the bank – the Rams have to take Kalil. He’s too good to pass up. There’s enough depth at receiver to wait until round two.

	#3 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) If Minnesota would’ve contemplated taking Andrew Luck at #1, why wouldn’t they consider taking RGIII here?

	#4 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) Elite playmaking talent who will have an instant impact. Cleveland may draft Richardson here even if Griffin’s still on the board.

	#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) You have to believe Greg Schiano would love to draft Trent Richardson. Cornerback is also a need.

	#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) This would be a foolish reach but Shanahan wants his guy. If Tannehill really is going to go in the top-15 as speculated, Washington is the obvious choice.

	#7 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) Assuming the Jaguars attack the market for receivers in free agency, Gene Smith could look for further protection for Blaine Gabbert.

	#8 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) Carolina wants to use a lot of different defensive looks and Still is scheme versatile. This is a big need for the Panthers.

	#9 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) Miami needs to improve their pass rush and if they aren’t tempted by Justin Blackmon, Upshaw could be the pick.

	#10 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) The Bills could be a wildcard and another potential destination for Blackmon. More than anything though, they need a pass rusher.

	#11 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) Some teams will be suspicious of Coples, but Seattle has a Head Coach who believes he’s capable of motivating any player.

	#12 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) The Chiefs could do with boosting their offensive line. They’d have the option to play Martin at left or right tackle.

	#13 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) Expect the Cardinals to pursue Peyton Manning. Whoever starts at quarterback, they’ll need better protection in 2012.

	#14 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) Most people expect Dallas to draft for their secondary in round one, but the options aren’t great – unlike Brockers.

	#15 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Andy Reid doesn’t like drafting linebackers, but Zach Brown will start to rise up the boards very soon.

	#16 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) This isn’t the first time I’ve had Blackmon falling a bit. New York could move up to make sure they get this guy.

	#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) Slightly over rated, a technician who looks great on the move but lacks elite power at the point of attack.

	#18 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia) He could play right tackle or guard in San Diego. The Chargers will surely invest in their offensive line this off-season and could trade up.

	#19 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Electric receiver who would quickly become Jay Cutler’s BFF. Capable of having a big impact quickly.

	#20 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) Kenny Britt’s problems off the field and with injuries could push the Titans towards finding a replacement.

	#21 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) Safety’s with Barron’s range are difficult to find and his 2011 performance warrants top-25 consideration.

	#22 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) He provides a lot of positives in run support, but he struggles in coverage. Could drop lower than this.

	#23 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) I think he can play outside linebacker – and while Detroit maybe have bigger needs, this guy can help take the defense to another level.

	#24 Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State) Played left tackle at Iowa State but will kick inside to guard at the next level. I really like this guy.

	#25 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College) He’s under sized but what a tackler – he’ll get close to 100 tackles in year one. Has some limitations and he’s no pass rusher.

	#26 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) The Texans saw life without Andre Johnson and might add another receiver as insurance.

	#27 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin) Top-end interior lineman who could be the best in this class. Stuck out on a talented Badgers line and no surprise he turned pro.

	#28 Doug Martin (RB, Boise State) They’ve played for two years now without a running game. Maybe it’s time to go all-in on a running back? Martin is seriously underrated.

	#29 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) Sanu can line up anywhere and make plays. San Francisco use a lot of gimmicks and needs a sure-handed catcher.

	#30 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) Cox looks like a pure five-technique to me and would be worth a chance here by the Ravens.

	#31 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) A top-ten talent on the field, but an UDFA off it. New England are willing to take on projects like this (see: Ryan Mallett).

	#32 Sean Spence (LB, Miami) Underrated linebacker who makes up for great size with speed, instinct, tackling and elite recognition skills.

This week’s projection is based on information accumulated over the last two weeks and continued tape observation. This mock best describes how I see things unfolding after the Senior Bowl and building up to the combine. Some of the picks will go against on my own personal grades, but I want to put down a mock I can return to after the combine to see how things have changed as we move closer to April 26th. For that reason, I’ve also included a second round to this week’s projection. 

I want to highlight the decision to have Minnesota take Robert Griffin III with the #3 overall pick. Last year, the Vikings spent a high first rounder on Christian Ponder and many people will disagree strongly with the suggestion they would draft another quarterback in round one this year. 

For starters, I think Minnesota’s situation has changed significantly in the last twelve months. When Brett Favre was quarterback in 2009, the Vikings came within a drive of the Super Bowl. They somehow (desperately) managed to convince an injured Favre to return in 2010 and the result was a bit of a mess. I firmly believe the Vikings thought they had a roster good enough to compete if they could sort out their quarterback situation. They drafted Ponder with the #12 pick last April, then traded for Donovan McNabb to be the bridge. During the 2011 season, Minnesota surely realised they weren’t so close to competing after all. They have an old and bad offensive line, they have no secondary and even the pass rush is looking long in the tooth. They lost Sidney Rice and became too dependant on Percy Harvin. Adrian Peterson was left to carry the offense and he ended the year with a serious knee injury. 

Having been so close to the Super Bowl, two seasons later the Vikings are pretty much back at square one. They need to rebuild. 

Really this situation isn’t too different to the one facing Carolina twelve months ago. Like the Vikings, in the space of two years the Panthers went from NFC challenger to picking very early in round one. When the Panthers drafted Jimmy Clausen with their first selection in 2010, they had greater expectations for the rest of their roster. When it fell apart to the extent they were the worst team in the NFL, they knew they had to start over. Faced with the chance to draft a building block, Carolina took Cam Newton first overall and Clausen became an after-though. Sure, Ponder was a much higher pick – but the situation is very similar. Two years removed from being legitimate NFC challengers, the Vikings are picking 3rd overall and they have a chance to draft their Cam Newton. 

You could argue it’s the team’s duty to build around Ponder and improve the offensive line, find him another receiver and piece together the defense. But here’s the thing: If Minnesota were picking first overall, would they draft Andrew Luck? Of course they would. Sure, they might see what they can get in a trade along the way – but like pretty much every team in the league they’d draft the big prize available at #1 this year. So if they’re willing to move past Ponder for Luck, would they do the same for Griffin III? 

Think about it – Minnesota needs an icon. Adrian Peterson may never be the same again after his injury, so what does that leave you with? If Christian Ponder reaches his peak, the best he can hope to be is Chad Pennington. Is that really what you want to build around? Instead, you could have Robert Griffin III. Start Ponder for a year or two as the bridge and take your lumps. Build around RGIII and give him the time to learn a pro-style offense. If Ponder develops in that time – superb! You have the makings of a nice trade with another team who needs a quarterback. If not, bring on the RGIII era. 

As the 12th pick last April, Ponder’s salary is just $10.5m on a four year contract. Tarvaris Jackson will earn around $8m for two years work in Seattle. There is no financial restriction here and Minnesota could easily accommodate both quarterbacks on their roster. Would it be different if they could draft a left tackle with elite potential such as Matt Kalil? Perhaps, but it’s almost certain St. Louis will draft the USC prospect if they can’t manufacture a trade with someone moving up for Griffin. Nothing is a guarantee of course, but I’m led to believe there’s a feeling among some sections of the league that Griffin III won’t get out of the top three picks. This maybe justifies why St. Louis are actually being touted as a logical trade partner. 

It wouldn’t be a major stretch if the Vikings’ draft board read: 1) Luck 2) Kalil 3) Griffin III. You don’t often get the chance to draft that early so you need to make those picks count. Are you really going to pass on a special talent at quarterback for Christian Ponder’s sake? If Griffin III is set to be taken in the top three picks, Seahawks fans hoping for a deal can forget about  it. The Rams aren’t going to trade with Seattle and if the Vikings do like RGIII, it’ll cost a kings ransom to move up. It appears defense will be on the agenda for the ‘Hawks at #11 or #12 unless a talented offensive player like Trent Richardson suffers an unlikely fall. 

Updated first round

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The Colts are cleaning house to make room for the Andrew Luck era. They might as well start talking about a contract now.

	#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) The Rams have to take Kalil, he’s too good to pass up. There’s enough depth at receiver to wait until round two.

	#3 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) If Minnesota would’ve been prepared to take Andrew Luck at #1, why wouldn’t they consider taking RGIII here?.

	#4 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) Elite playmaking talent who will have an instant impact. Cleveland may draft Richardson here even if Griffin’s still on the board.

	#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) You have to believe Greg Schiano would love to draft Trent Richardson. Cornerback is also a need.

	#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) This would be a foolish reach but Shanahan wants his guy. If Tannehill really is going to go in the top-15 as speculated, Washington is the obvious choice.

	#7 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) He’s an enigma, but also a player some teams will love to take a chance on. Expect Jacksonville to sign receivers during free agency.

	#8 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) Carolina want to have lots of different defensive looks and Still is scheme versatile. This is a big need for the Panthers.

	#9 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) Green Bay has a lot of talented receivers, Miami has Brandon Marshall. If Joe Philbin goes back for Matt Flynn, he’ll need targets.

	#10 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) The Bills would be in a good spot here with both Reiff and Jonathan Martin on the board. Pick your poison.

	#11 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) Upshaw won’t blow up the combine and that could put him in range for the Seahawks.

	#12 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) The Chiefs could do with boosting their offensive line. They’d have the option to play Martin at left or right tackle.

	#13 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) With two offensive tackles leaving the board quickly, it could force Arizona to go for another need – pass rusher.

	#14 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) Most people expect Dallas to draft for their secondary in round one, but the options aren’t great – unlike Brockers.

	#15 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Andy Reid doesn’t like drafting linebackers, but he might have to. Zach Brown will start to rise up the boards very soon.

	#16 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) I’m not a big fan but the Jets need a receiver and Floyd just looks like a Rex Ryan type of pick.

	#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) Slightly over rated, a technician who looks great on the move but lacks elite power at the point of attack.

	#18 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) He was practically unstoppable at the Senior Bowl and teams will be looking at Adams as a potential blind side blocker.

	#19 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Electric receiver who would quickly become Jay Cutler’s BFF. Capable of having a big impact quickly.

	#20 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) They need to improve their edge rush and Mercilus led the nation for sacks. A hard player to work out.

	#21 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) Safety’s with Barron’s range are difficult to find and his 2011 performance warrants top-25 consideration.

	#22 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) Having added a running back, they now add possibly the best receiver in the draft class. Quarterback later on or in free agency.

	#23 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia) A senior bowl to remember will help promote his stock, but he got better and better as the season went on for Georgia.

	#24 Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State) Played left tackle at Iowa State but will kick inside to guard at the next level. I really like this guy.

	#25 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College) He’s under sized but what a tackler – he’ll get close to 100 tackles in year one. Has some limitations and he’s no pass rusher.

	#26 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) Imagine JJ Watt and Fletcher Cox on the same defensive line. If they lose Mario Williams, they need to find a pass-rush replacement.

	#27 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin) Top-end interior lineman who could be the best in this class. Stuck out on a talented Badgers line and no surprise he turned pro.

	#28 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) Great in run support but not so much in coverage. Green Bay would get value here but Kirkpatrick has a lot to work on.

	#29 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) Sanu can line up anywhere and make plays. San Francisco use a lot of gimmicks and need a sure-handed catcher.

	#30 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) A Ravens type of player if ever you saw one. He’s stout against the run but makes enough plays on the move to go here.

	#31 Sean Spence (LB, Miami) Underrated linebacker who makes up for great size with speed, instinct, tackling and elite recognition skills.

	#32 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) A top-ten talent on the field, but an UDFA off it. New England are willing to take on projects like this (see: Ryan Mallett).

Second round 

#33 St. Louis – Juron Criner (WR, Arizona)
The Rams make use of the depth at receiver this year and find Sam Bradford a new #1 target. 

#34 Indianapolis – Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington)
In moving to the 3-4, the Colts need a nose tackle. Ta’amu could go earlier than this. 

#35 Minnesota – Reuben Randle (WR, LSU)
Without a great offensive lineman or cornerback available here, the Vikings checkdown and go receiver. 

#36 Tampa Bay – Chris Polk (RB, Washington)
He’s not Trent Richardson, but he’s the kind of physical runner the Bucs will look for. 

#37 Cleveland – Andre Branch (DE, Clemson)
A steal for the Browns who are slowly building a top young defensive line. 

#38 Jacksonville – Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall)
The Jaguars double dip at defensive end and makeover their pass rush having added Quinton Coples earlier. 

#39 Washington – Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
Getting a big target for their new quarterback would be a wise idea and Jeffery is good value here. 

#40 Carolina – Brandon Thompson (DT, Clemson)
Like Jacksonville, Carolina double-up on a big area of need. Thompson + Stills = scary. 

#41 Buffalo – Nick Perry (DE, USC)
The next best pass rusher on the board having added to the offensive line in round one. 

#42 Miami – Cam Johnson (DE, Virginia)
The Dolphins also need to improve their edge rush and take this rising senior with a lot of potential. 

#43 Seattle – Doug Martin (RB, Boise State)
The Seahawks know their offense is based around the run and they need to make sure they have strong depth at running back. 

#44 Kansas City – Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis)
Nose tackle is a position of great value these days and the Chiefs make sure they get a young one here. 

#45 Dallas – Jayron Hosley (CB, Virginia Tech)
Just a great playmaker who I suspect Jerry Jones will rate highly. He gambles, but he’s also exciting. 

#46 Philadelphia – Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State)
The Eagles always make sure they’re prepared at quarterback and Osweiler is underrated. 

#47 New York Jets – Jared Crick (DE, Nebraska)
This would be excellent value for a player with lots of pass-rushing ability. 

#48 New England – Joe Adams (WR, Arkansas)
Whoever drafts this guy won’t be sorry. 

#49 San Diego – Shea McClellin (DE, Boise State)
3-4 teams looking for an edge rusher will give McClellin strong consideration in round two. 

#50 Chicago – Jerel Worthy (DT, Michigan State)
A player who lurches between dominant and irrelevant, but it’s worth trying to keep the lights on. 

#51 Philadelphia – Lavonte David (LB, Nebraska)
Speedy linebacker who’s gaining momentum. Will provide some pass rushing threat. 

#52 Tennessee Mike Martin (DT, Michigan)
The tape says 100% effort guy with a lot of talent and teams will want him on their roster. 

#53 Cincinnati – Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)
This would possibly be the steal of the draft. 

#54 Detroit – Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse)
He’s raw and lacks technique, but there’s a bit of JPP about his style. 

#55 Atlanta Coby Fleener (TE, Stanford)
The heir apparent to Tony Gonzalez? 

#56 Pittsburgh – Bobby Wagner (LB, Utah State)
He looked good enough in the Senior Bowl to make it into the back-end of round two. 

#57 Denver – David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech)
A running back with a lot of speed but doesn’t always make the best decisions. 

#58 Houston Josh Chapman (DT, Alabama)
The unsung hero of the ‘Bama defense. He played really well in 2011. 

#59 New Orleans – Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech)
Huge potential in terms of physical quality and ability to catch the ball. 

#60 Green Bay – Kirk Cousins (QB, Michigan State)
The Packers are always one step ahead of the curve when it comes to quarterbacks. 

#61 Baltimore – Alfonzo Dennard (DB, Nebraska)
I’ve always had him in this range and don’t buy the first round talk. 

#62 San Francisco – Orson Charles (TE, Georgia)
The Niners can run a lot of dangerous 2TE sets if they draft this guy. 

#63 New York Giants – Kendall Reyes (DT, Connecticut)
He can do a back flip. He is 299lbs. 

#64 New England Ronnell Lewis (LB, Oklahoma)
I like Lewis, he’s just not spectacular in any particular way. Just a good all-round skill set. 

Just missed the cut: Vontaze Burfict (LB, Arizona State), Brandon Boykin (CB, Georgia), Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame), Logan Harrell (DT, Fresno State), Dwayne Allen (TE, Clemson), Brandon Washington (G, Miami), Chase Minnifield (CB, Virginia), Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (DT, Baylor).