Category: Front Page News (Page 31 of 367)

I remember it like it was yesterday.

23rd December, 2012.

The moment it became realistic to dream about winning it all.

The Seahawks hammered the 49ers. After three consecutive defeats to Jim Harbaugh’s crew, this felt like a turning point. A 42-13 obliteration. Even though the Niners went to the Super Bowl that year, we could all see what the Seahawks were becoming.

12 months later, they were on the road to a title.

The 2012 Niners game was immortalised in the brilliant ‘Rain City Redemption’ series. Included was a clip of Red Bryant firing his team-mates up pre-game.

“We run the ball, we win. We stop the run, we win”

Bryant barked out the line with gusto. It was a sign that everyone on the team knew what they were trying to achieve. What they intended to be.

That identity carried the Seahawks along. When it began to shift away from ‘run the ball with Marshawn and defend the run with physicality’ — the cracks began to form. We get to relive the fall-out on a nearly monthly basis thanks to Richard Sherman’s podcast.

The thing is, the Seahawks have tried for some time to get back to what they were. It’s years now since John Schneider told the media it was their intention to become the bullies again. They’ve re-set the roster twice — in 2018 and in 2022.

At no point have they been able to become what they intend to be.

Pete Carroll’s much debated philosophy remains a distant dream. An intention but not a reality.

Has a franchise ever been so clear in what it wants to be and so consistently failed to achieve it?

It says it all that yesterday, people on Twitter were actually crediting Seattle’s defense for not being so bad. They only gave up 170 rushing yards after all and 55 of those yards came on one play at the end! What an improvement from the previous few weeks.

The defense has allowed 1008 rushing yards in the last five games.

Stop the run and we win? No wonder they’re 1-4 in that stretch and were very nearly 0-5.

This has been a years long issue now. According to Football Outsiders — since the initial re-set in 2018, the Seahawks rank 22nd in defensive EPA per play and they haven’t finished a season ranked better than 17th in defensive DVOA.

Go beyond the analytics. In 2018 the pass rush solely relied on one player — Frank Clark. Then they traded him away. Since then, we’ve heard numerous mentions of prioritising this area for improvement. Year after year they fail to put together anything like a consistent, coherent, acceptable pass rush.

They’ve tried different co-ordinators, different schemes and different players. Carroll has appeared to be more hands-on at times and then this year, there was evidence of him perhaps ceding some input to the Vic Fangio-crowd. The results never change.

The Seahawks have a defensive-minded Head Coach and the defense is consistently dreadful.

Now the running game. If Marshawn Lynch needs an argument to be formed about his Hall of Fame candidacy — he just needs to point to the period of Carroll football where he hasn’t been the feature back.

In the Lynch days, the running game was consistent and set a tone. Even when the yards weren’t there — the attention Lynch demanded created opportunities for the passing game.

Since his initial retirement, what have we seen? Fluctuating form at best. At times Chris Carson shone and produced the balance Seattle craves on offense. Yet too often he would get injured and that would be that. Ditto Rashaad Penny. The occasional flash of brilliance, such as at the end of last season, but then more injuries. Ken Walker has shown moments of genuine quality this year. He too has had a couple of injuries already and is too often found looking for a home-run, rather than letting the blocking guide him to the right area.

Let’s look at the numbers for Seattle’s leading rushers over the last three seasons. Remember — this is a team determined to run as a focal point:

2020 — Chris Carson 681
2021 — Rashaad Penny 749
2022 — Ken Walker 696 (with four games remaining)

Run the ball and we win? The Seahawks’ running game deserves to be viewed as inconsistent at best. A more fitting description might be ‘not fit for purpose’ — at least not for a team so focused on making it a feature.

The one thing that has remained consistent since 2018 is the over-reliance on the quarterback. Between 2018-2020 the team basically lived and died on the arm of Russell Wilson. Now, the situation is exactly the same. Geno Smith carries the team instead. He gets almost no help from the defense or running game. Good luck Geno and if you don’t play like a Super Hero, we’re probably going to lose.

Unsurprisingly it isn’t working out for the QB.

There are plenty of teams out there who depend on the quarterback and are content living in that space. The Seahawks actively work hard to avoid becoming a one-man team and yet year after year, they find themselves relying on the QB.

We need to talk about this more.

Look — it’s not about calling for heads to roll or for people to be fired. I just think if we’re going to have all of the articles, tweets and attempts to serve crow when the going is good — we also need to have frank conversations about issues when they emerge too.

People were writing articles calling for apologies to be sent to Pete Carroll during the four-game winning streak. Perhaps, now that the team is on a 1-4 run and playing poorly, we can have a more serious debate about why we’ve seen the same problems re-appear for years?

I’ve no doubt the point will be made in response that they just need the benefit of a bounty of picks, courtesy of the Denver Broncos, to rectify the problem. That’s fine and perhaps that will prove to be the case. Yet we shouldn’t act like the Seahawks’ top brass have been a hapless bystander for years — handcuffed to a bad defensive unit.

They have created this group.

People talk about the D-line. It’s full of players they’ve drafted in the early rounds (L.J. Collier, Darrell Taylor, Boye Mafe), players they paid to retain (Poona Ford — with the highest cap-hit on the roster — and Bryan Mone) or retained over numerous years (Al Woods). This is their bunch of guys.

They’ve also spent a first round pick on Jordyn Brooks, a third rounder on Cody Barton, paid a high price to keep Quandre Diggs and a kings ransom to acquire and retain Jamal Adams.

A massive resource spend has created this group. Another massive resource spend isn’t guaranteed to do anything unless they get it right.

This is especially the case when you select someone like Mafe early in round two and then give him considerably fewer snaps than ‘signed off the couch and on the brink of retirement’ Bruce Irvin. I mean, look at the difference here:

vs Tampa Bay — Mafe 37.3%, Irvin 62.7%
vs Las Vegas — Mafe 35.1%, Irvin 68.8%
vs Carolina — Mafe 15.6%, Irvin 77.8%
vs San Francisco — Mafe 35.9%, Irvin 53.1%

Irvin’s PFF grade is a 62.2 and Mafe’s grading at 60.5. They both have two sacks. If their performance levels are almost identical — why is Mafe, a potential long-term piece for the defense, sitting and watching Irvin gobble up a bulk of the snaps?

It just doesn’t make any sense.

We’ve seen this before haven’t we? With the unspectacular Benson Mayowa regularly preferred to Alton Robinson over the previous two seasons.

As noted yesterday — there are big questions to be asked about whether the Seahawks need to bin-off the scheme they adopted this year. It isn’t working in Minnesota with Ed Donatell either, or in LA with Brandon Staley. It appears unless you have Vic Fangio, the Fangio defense just doesn’t work.

Also noted yesterday — the importance of being ruthless in the off-season. You cannot pay Diggs and Adams $36m combined in 2023. They shifted resource away from linebacker by cutting Bobby Wagner this year. They need to do the same at safety now — relying on younger, faster, healthier players and pumping extra money into the trenches. Ryan Neal is a perfect example of why spending big at safety isn’t necessary and there are safeties in the upcoming draft who can provide cheap value.

It’s also really important to be firm in asking — when are things going to change? When will a team that sets out to run and defend the run brilliantly, actually manage to pull it off?

How many years of failing to do so is acceptable?

At what point does the whole, ‘this season has been better than anyone expected!’ stop being used as acceptable blanket to cover all ills?

The Seahawks are 7-7 with a powder-puff schedule. We might not have expected Geno Smith to excel this year — but neither did we expect the Rams and Cardinals to be a shambles.

Seattle’s strength of schedule is just .450 compared to Detroit’s .550, Washington’s .545 and New York’s .550. Of the four teams in the race to be the crappy team who gets the seventh seed, the Seahawks’ schedule has been far more favourable.

Frankly, had they only won 4-5 games to this point — it’d actually be really bad given the opponents they’ve faced.

And I’ll mention again — Seattle is just 23-16 at home since 2018 and that’s with a 7-1 2021 record when they played a full year without fans. When the 12’s are actually in Lumen Field — since 2018 the team is only 16-15. That’s crazy.

These are all inconvenient truths that we can’t shy away from just because Geno Smith has played better than expected because aside from that, a lot of consistent problems remain.

If we don’t talk about them — if the media doesn’t talk about them — when will anything change?

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Well, that was hard to watch.

It’s certainly true that the 49ers have a very good roster that are a tough opponent for anyone. This was always going to be a big challenge for a slumping Seahawks team.

That said, the Niners came to Seattle without Deebo Samuel. Javon Kinlaw and Jason Verrett are on injured reserve. They’re onto their third quarterback — an undrafted rookie playing in his first road game.

This was also a do-or-die night for the Seahawks. The division would be lost. The playoff chances would take a massive hit. They had to bring their A-game, gather together and find a way.

What we saw, however, was the complete opposite.

As has been the case for weeks now, the Seahawks looked unprepared for this contest. On offense they started with a bunch of three-and-outs. Defensively it felt like they were clinging on throughout.

The close scoreline — 21-13 — barely tells the story.

Before half-time Seattle delivered a comedy of errors so bad it would’ve been fitting to play the circus march in the background. Quandre Diggs drops an easy interception. Travis Homer fumbles the ball on offense. The Niners punch in a touchdown.

Then to make matters worse — at the start of the third quarter, an appalling piece of coverage by the defense to leave George Kittle of all people wide open downfield. A disgusting attempted tackle by Diggs. A massive, back-breaking touchdown to effectively end the game as a contest.

It’s week 15. The plan for a new defensive scheme has gone so badly that it appears the players still don’t know what they’re doing. How can something as basic as the linebacker carrying one of San Francisco’s best players downfield be an issue at this stage, in a game of this importance?

We’ve been talking about Diggs for weeks and this really should be the exclamation point on his future. You cannot pay him $18m next season. It’s as simple as that.

He’s not the only mistake that needs reversing though. They need to get rid of this scheme. I don’t want to see a war-chest of picks pumped into this system.

Before they appointed Sean Desai and Clint Hurtt — Pete Carroll was busy recruiting old pal Ed Donatell. The Vikings have more talent on defense and guess what? The fans and media are trying to run Donatell out of town because they are failing badly on that side of the ball, undermining the offensive production.

Throwing rookies into a system that the likes of Jordyn Brooks seem to be struggling with isn’t the answer. I’ve seen enough. This isn’t the system to build around. It’s too easy to play against, too easy to run against and creates no pressure. Move on.

And no — there isn’t going to be anyone available at #2 or #3 in the 2023 draft who can do what Nick Bosa did today. Sadly.

It’s not just the defense though. The offense didn’t really seem to have any idea how to combat the challenge of the Niners’ defense. The running game was again non-existent. Days after admitting he’s been too aggressive recently — Geno Smith was back to mixing in some nice passes with some ‘oh no…’ throws. He was massively fortunate that a pick-six was called back at the start of the second half on a dubious roughing penalty and was lucky on some other throws that could’ve been snared.

Smith is really the only shining light though — along with the two key receivers (when they aren’t collecting dumb taunting penalties). No quarterback can thrive with no help and no protection. The rookie tackles struggled. They can’t run to save their lives. It’s tough to watch.

The playoff dream is unravelling, as is any real feel good factor from this season. The warm glow of the unexpected is disappearing. They’re 1-4 in the last five with the only win a closer-than-it-should’ve-been win in LA.

The Seahawks have seven wins, with hindsight, against a bunch of bad teams. Two wins against the Cardinals, a win against Denver, a win against the Rams’ backups. They were lucky enough to play Detroit without key players before they got hot. The Giants are imploding in a similar way to the Seahawks.

Perhaps it is still possible to say we never expected to be 7-7 at this point. But in the context of how their schedule has turned out — and how the NFC West has folded with the exception of San Francisco — is it really that much of an achievement any more? Do the Arizona, Rams and Broncos wins really give you much optimism for the future?

The Lions are 6-7 with a loaded strength of schedule at .552. The Commanders (.543) and Giants (.552) are in the same boat.

Seattle’s strength of schedule is .450. That’s a big difference.

The Seahawks are also 3-4 at home this season and 23-16 at Lumen Field since 2018. That’s a topic few people seem to want to embrace. Remember — that 23-16 record also includes a 7-1 record in 2020 when the games were played without fans due to Covid. So since 2018, with fans in the stadium, the Seahawks are 16-15 at home.

Right now it’s difficult to invest faith in the defense without major structural and schematic work. They don’t have the cap space to splurge because a lot of it is committed to players like Diggs, Jamal Adams and the defensive linemen currently on the roster.

I don’t want to watch this team in the playoffs. It would be a futile exercise and might simply mean another crushing loss to the Niners as a bad seventh seed.

They’ll be 7-8 when they lose to the Chiefs on Christmas Eve (what a game to have to face next). They might as well save themselves the bother of a playoff one-and-done and have a better draft pick in each round. Not that the Seahawks will see it that way, or should think that way. But we can. We can be honest about it.

Perhaps of more pressing concern is the total lack of identity this team has and the inability of the coaches to fix problems.

We’re watching Kyle Shanahan’s offense basically just run through quarterbacks and they don’t miss a beat. For the Seahawks, their defensive staff (including the Head Coach) can’t even get the players to avoid blown coverages against a key tight end.

How many more years of bad defense and an inconsistent running game are we going to see? Especially when the clearly defined identity calls for both to be the focal point of the team?

Another 172 rushing yards given up tonight, compared to Seattle’s paltry 70 yards.

In many ways the 2022 Seahawks feel a lot like the 2018-2020 Seahawks. Then, they were carried by the quarterback. Now, they’re carried by a different quarterback.

It’s not supposed to be this way. How long are we going to keep ignoring that?

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. After the game today tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel

Pete Carroll’s record at home against the San Francisco 49ers is a sparkling 10-2. Those two losses were extremely close as well, losing by a field goal late in the game in 2011 and by a couple inches as a fourth-down pass to Jacob Hollister with twelve seconds to play netted four yards when the Seahawks needed five to win it.

That is about as good a stretch against one opponent – particularly a division opponent – as you are likely to find in the NFL.

I point this out not in some vain attempt to guarantee a win or engender unreasonable expectations for the Thursday game but as a way to demonstrate that current-year records and trends can at times take a backseat when games against division opponents appear on the schedule. Particularly when you consider this game is a must-win for the Seahawks to punch their ticket to the playoffs by winning the division. Absent that, it is scraping for a wild-card spot and relying on other teams to lose.

As a straight up head-to-head matchup, this looks like an incredibly tough game for the Seahawks.

San Francisco has been on a roll, winning six consecutive games.

It is not just the wins though; it is the way they are winning that spells so much trouble for Seattle. They are actually doing what Pete Carroll wishes the Seahawks could do. They are running the ball at will and stopping the run on defense.

In the last six games the Niners have run for an average of 142 yards per game. Their defense? Allowing an average of 57 yards per game.

You read that right. They are out-gaining opponents on the ground by a whopping 85 yards per game.

The Seahawks’ last six? They are floundering at 3-3 and have been getting out-gained by 92 yards per game on the ground.

The math is just too convenient. It points to a big disparity and portends that the Niners should completely control this game.

So that is the only real watch point. The Seahawks have to at least get closer to keeping this game even on the ground if they are to have a chance.

Kenneth Walker appears ready to come back. It is entirely possible that the team felt he could have played against Carolina but decided to save him for this game. They will need everything he can muster. The recent streak he has been on of ‘dancing indecisiveness’ looking for daylight will have to be put behind him. The team will take any game-breaking runs they can get but at this point just a solid ground game that takes some pressure off Geno Smith and the defense would be a major step in the right direction.

On defense, the only thing I can suggest to improve their rushing defense is to bring Bob Newhart in as a sports consultant. The time for scheme questions and talk about run fits is over. The team has to execute. They must stop the run in order to have a fighting chance.

The rest is minor details. But here a couple factors that could really play out in this game…

Win the Turnover Battle

This has been a big key to the Niners’ resurgence. During their six-game winning streak, the team has been an astounding +9 in turnover ratio. They have absolutely dominated opponents in this area, with 12 turnovers against only three giveaways.

Eight of those turnovers have been interceptions, coming from seven different defenders.

Meanwhile, their offense has only thrown two interceptions in six games.

Geno Smith has really struggled with decision-making recently. With the absence of a solid running game and a defense on track to once again be on the field for the most plays in the NFL, he has taken some chances on offense that he should not and it has burned him.

He actually came out and said this in a recent press conference:

Geno Smith says “I think I’ve been too aggressive of late.”

Says he needs to get back to taking what defenses are giving him and the Seahawks. Usually, that means check-downs over forces. pic.twitter.com/2w5U2KxEom

— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) December 13, 2022

It is a nice moment of honesty from Geno about his recent play. There is a reason he has led the league in completion percentage this season while still pushing the ball downfield: he has made good decisions and been able to execute them. If the Seahawks are to have a chance on Thursday, Geno will need to once again find that slim margin between safe and aggressive.

Fumbles and ball security will also be critical for the offense. D.K. Metcalf has two fumbles this season. Now would be a time for him to keep control of the ball and dominate the game.

On defense, forcing turnovers would go a very, very long way towards winning.

Tariq Woolen is their star ballhawk. Another interception Thursday would be a tremendously impactful.

However, as the Niners are likely to run heavily, chances are those turnovers will have to come in the form of fumbles.

That may provide an advantage for Seattle – the Seahawks are tied for third in the NFL with ten recovered fumbles. However, they have hit a bit of a dry spell. Their last recovered fumble was in Week Nine against the Cardinals. If there would be one game where they desperately need to pick that trend back up, it would be this one.

Turnovers are extremely hard to predict. Sometimes they come in the form of a little luck, sometimes it is all hard work and desire. One of those ways the Seahawks can control. The team has been miserable and beaten up on defense in recent games.

In a way, a Thursday game could actually prove beneficial. A way for the team to not stew on their troubles for a couple days but put their head down and get back to work. A return to Turnover Thursday would be just what the doctor ordered.

Involve the Tight Ends in the Offense More

This one is a tall order. San Francisco are one of the NFL’s best teams in defending tight ends. Their two safeties are allowing only a 58% completion percentage on 69 targets this year. Fred Warner is allowing only 62%.

Indeed, the Seahawks only gained 11 yards on four targets to the tight ends in that Week Two loss. What has been a big weapon all season for the Seahawks was effectively neutralized in that game.

The Niners players are experts at clogging the middle of the field and quickly closing windows to tight ends in the seam. The result has been only two touchdowns conceded and the third-lowest yards in the NFL conceded to tight ends all year.

Shane Waldron is going to have a real job ahead of him. We have seen some creativity in the offense this year. Ways to get guys open for pretty simple completions.

The boot play has been an extremely effective tool at getting the offense in gear with some easy yards. It works as an occasional substitute for an ineffective rushing game. No doubt the Niners have seen its effectiveness and are scheming up ways to counter it.

So, it is a chess match. The Seahawks will definitely want to use a play like this early in the game. Show the Niners what they can do here and establish a little rhythm. But also, they need to build off of it. Add a wrinkle or two and try to catch the defense over-pursuing a little.

How about flipping the script a little? Line up Metcalf in the slot and a Noah Fant or Colby Parkinson out wide and have Metcalf either move the defenders out to clear the field for a quick slant to let the tight end use his size advantage over the corner. Or, if the Niners put a smaller or slower defender on Metcalf, him use his size and skill advantages to win that battle.

Win the Miscellaneous

This is sort of a catch-all for the odd details that often happen to the Seahawks in games this year. They have to come out on the winning end on more of these than not.

That means winning challenges, or Pete Carroll having the wisdom to not challenge sure losses or inconsequential wins.

That means ‘winning’ the controversial calls by the referees more than ‘losing’ them.

That means a strong, mistake-free game from the Special Teams unit.

That means Pete Carroll making good decisions on the field. When to go for it on fourth down, when to blitz, when to call timeouts, and having the wisdom to know when a trick play will work and when to deploy it.

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

Record: 1-3

Thoughts

What a frustrating quarter. The Seahawks entered it on a high note, having completely swept the second quarter. They exit with more questions than answers. That 4-0 quarter now appears like an aberration in a resetting year.

Were they the beneficiaries of poor play by the Cardinals, Chargers and Giants? Or was it a game of perfect matchups and timing, where all the pieces just fell together for one sweet month?

Which Seahawks team is the true one? The first and third quarter one or the second quarter one?

The weight of the evidence suggests the Seahawks are more the former than the latter.

MVP

1.Tyler Lockett

A touchdown catch every single game this quarter. Fifteen first-down catches and 298 total yards, including 107 yards after the catch.

Geno Smith has a 105 QB rating when targeting Lockett.

Again, Lockett is headed toward one of his best seasons as a pro with Smith throwing the passes.

He signed an extension last year and is already outperforming it. He is the 20th-highest paid wide receiver in the NFL. He has been everything the Seahawks could have hoped for when they drafted him.

2.Tariq Woolen

Two interceptions this quarter on only eleven QB targets. Only 54 yards conceded in four games. Only ten yards after the catch allowed. Seventeen tackles – a quarter high for him.

But it is so, so much more than that.

It is the tough tackles. It is the vision and awareness to break off his man and teleport across the field to break up a pass to a wide-open receiver his teammate had blown coverage on in the Carolina game.

Woolen is doing everything asked of him at a high level and more. His star will not stop ascending.

3.D.K. Metcalf

Thirty catches, eighteen of them were first down catches. Two touchdowns, including the winner against the Rams and Jalen Ramsey. 359 yards, nearly 90 per game.

The branching out is still happening. He can be a short, move-the-chains weapon, a go-to receiver in tight spots and a deep threat. And it is not just all feasting on poor corners — he can be productive when matched up with the other team’s top corner.

Honorable Mention: Geno Smith

Ten touchdowns against four interceptions this quarter for a 105.9 rating.

A slight dip in his completion percentage to 68.28% – which if he threw at that rate for the whole season, would still be the best in the NFL.

He has had a couple ‘old Geno’ moments this quarter with some questionable throws. But let’s not forget he had very little run support (he had 67 rushing yards to Kenneth Walker’s 79) and was constantly battling a poor defense and for the most part still delivered.

There has been a distinct air of putting down Geno’s performance of late from fans. Perhaps it is an overreaction to the calls for Geno to get MVP votes all year.

At any rate, he is still playing at a high level. Do not be surprised if the Seahawks move to give him a contract this offseason.

Rookie of the Quarter

1.Tariq Woolen

It is happening. The league is catching on. A season-low eleven targets this quarter, just under three targets per game. He still managed two interceptions.

Teams are avoiding Woolen. Again, I feel it needs to be said — 13 games into the career of this fifth-round rookie, NFL teams are starting to actively avoid him. Unreal.

There are so many poor elements to this defense, why even bother going after the one player who is playing at such a high level?

Everybody Else

Other than Woolen, there was not much that was praiseworthy from the rookies this quarter.

Cross and Lucas have played just about every snap and their play has not dipped drastically but neither have there been signs of progression. Lucas had a rough game against Maxx Crosby and it cost the Seahawks.

Coby Bryant had no game-changing turnover plays this quarter.

Ken Walker hit the ‘bust’ part of a Rashaad Penny-like boom or bust streak. He was constantly very close to busting a big run but kept getting bottled up.

Boye Mafe’s snaps have vastly decreased. Why?

Successes

1.The game-winning drive vs LA

It was a thing of beauty. Geno Smith’s sparkling season had been dogged by one nagging omission: a signature game-winning drive. He delivered wonderfully.

He was 5-for-8 and drew an illegal contact penalty on Jalen Ramsey. He targeted five different receivers and the touchdown-scoring play was a beauty. He glided in the pocket to buy time and threw a perfect pass to Metcalf with Ramsey draped all over him.

The Rams were beat up and fielding a mash unit of a team. The win was more symbolic than something to build on. But beating the Rams and answering that one dogging drive question is always a good day’s work.

2.Two great kickoff returns by Godwin Igwebuike in the Carolina game

Deejay Dallas’ injury was the Seahawks’ good fortune in this game.

Practice squad elevation Godwin Igwebuike put a charge into the team with 105 return yards on three attempts.

He had a 50-yarder and a 35-yarder, as well as a standard 20-yard return.

The Seahawks have been lacking a real return game for years. The offense (with this poor defense) has had to scratch and claw for every yard.

Seventeen of the Seahawks’ 24 points in that game were from drives started by an Igwebuike return.

It would be malpractice if the Seahawks do not elevate him to the team and use him on every kick return from here on out.

3.Jason Myers was perfect

He appears to be back to his high standard of play this year.

He was perfect on both field goals and extra points this quarter.

On the year he has only missed one of each.

It may not be exciting but he is doing everything that is asked of him.

Struggles

1.Run Defense

838 yards conceded on the ground this quarter. That works out to 209 yards per game.

They are conceding 160.5 yards per game on the ground this year.

In the last ten NFL seasons (that is 320 team-seasons) only three teams have done worse on run defense.

Once again, the Seahawks are leading the NFL in a dubious stat: Most snaps faced. The defense cannot get off the field, and their run defense is why.

2.Run Offense

They had 594 yards rushing in the second quarter.

This quarter? 240.

As much as you could see Pete Carroll’s vision coming to fruition in that quarter, this quarter you can see how much the team struggled when they could not run the ball effectively. The defense saw more snaps than they should. Geno Smith was under more pressure than he should be.

The circle was broken this quarter.

Ken Walker struggled to get on track and then got hurt. Depth players Deejay Dallas and Travis Homer also were banged up and ineffective.

The Seahawks are the 21st-ranked team in rushing this year. They are a bad game away from dropping into the bottom ten.

3.Turnovers

The team was -1 this quarter. They have seven giveaways and six takeaways.

Four interceptions and three fumbles.

When you cannot run the ball effectively, and the defense cannot stop the run, giving the ball back to the opponent is a multiplier that takes chances away from the offense and simultaneously forces them to rely on increasingly riskier plays.

Next Quarter Games

San Francisco TNF
@ Kansas City Saturday
New York Jets
LA Rams

Goals

1.Fix the Defense

I hate repeating myself. It’s lazy that I cannot find something new and interesting to say. But I have to crib my first quarter report card goal:

Something. Anything. Give us something to believe in.

With the way the offense is playing, we do not need the defense to be a top-10 unit. Just middle of the pack.

Start slowly and build.

Have the guys knowing their assignments one week. Minimize the penalties the second. Work on creating some pass rush the third. And so on.

The Seahawks responded and delivered a great defensive second quarter.

They need to respond again. It is the only thing that is going to prevent this fourth quarter from being an unmitigated disaster.

2.Manage the Rookie Wall

College players usually play 12 or 13 games. This last quarter Lucas, Cross and the crew will be asked to go above and beyond for the first time.

Now is when those workouts in June and July pay off. When these young players forego hamburgers and french fries in favor of fresh fruits and baked chicken.

Now it is when their professionalism needs to show up.

3.At least be competitive in the two division games

Is that too much to ask? San Francisco steamrolled the Seahawks in Week Two. The Seahawks must respond.

The Rams? I don’t care if they are depleted, sweeping the Rams after the last five years of absolute agony against them would be an achievement they could take into 2023 to build on.

ESPN analyst Todd McShay has published his first mock draft of the year. Here are a few quick thoughts…

Some of the things we’ve been discussing for a long time are represented. For example, I’ve been saying I think Texas running back Bijan Robinson will top many draft boards in terms of pure grade. In a year without many clear top-10 picks, I’ll be surprised if someone doesn’t take him in that range despite his position. He is just too good and the alternative options will be far less talented.

McShay has Robinson going fifth overall to the Eagles at #5. It’s a perfect match.

There’s also a place for Anthony Richardson at #11. That’s not as high as I’ve been suggesting but McShay has Richardson at #32 on his big board. Thus, he is acknowledging here that there’s a very realistic chance the Florida quarterback will be taken very early — irrespective of how raw he is perceived to be.

I think as we go through this process he will continue to appear in more and more mock drafts and should he have a strong draft season, he will be a firm candidate for the top-five based on his incredible upside. As we’ve been noting for some time — there are plenty of elite QB’s in the NFL currently who were not being mocked in the top-15 when they declared. Patrick Mahomes, as highlighted last week, wasn’t even included in Daniel Jeremiah’s top-50 board just three weeks before the 2017 draft.

McShay has Will Levis at #6. This is validation of how we’ve assessed Levis over the last 12 months and the way we’ve projected him and his situation at Kentucky which, frankly, was horrendous. The lack of weapons, the fact he was sacked endlessly compared to every other big name quarterback in college football and his experience in a pro-system rather than a wide-open, half-field system that delivers mass-production. He’s not had it easy and he’s immensely talented.

McShay also has Michael Mayer going very early (#12) which I think is a lock and he has Myles Murphy lasting to #14. I don’t understand how or why people keep putting Murphy in the top five or six picks. Have they watched Clemson?

I’d be surprised if Peter Skoronski and Paris Johnson Jr go in the top-10. I don’t think either player is deserving of that mark, despite the premium nature and big need for offensive linemen. Skoronski is a guard convert in all likelihood and Johnson Jr just doesn’t jump off the screen.

Seattle’s picks are Jalen Carter at #2 and Brian Branch at #18.

We’ve discussed Carter a lot and he would provide a long overdue interior presence for a struggling D-line. He will be the first non-QB taken barring any unforeseen injury or character issues and a tremendous addition. Whether it’s Seattle or Chicago picking at #2 — Carter will almost certainly leave the board there, unless someone trades up.

Here’s McShay’s blurb:

This pick is higher than Seattle thought it would be when it sent Russell Wilson to Denver in March — and it will have options here. First, if the Seahawks aren’t sold on Geno Smith long term, they can happily select Ohio State passer C.J. Stroud and let Smith walk in free agency. Second, they can trade back with a team that wants Stroud and pick up even more picks for their ongoing rebuild. Or third, they can add a difference-making defender.

It’s still early to project trades or truly evaluate Smith’s future, so I’m opting for the third option — and going with Carter over Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. Seattle has a bigger need on the interior than edge, and I think Carter could be dominant there with a lightning-fast first step and plenty of disruptive power. He reminds me of Quinnen Williams.

McShay is right to highlight the possibility of drafting a quarterback at #2, although it’s nothing to do with being sold or not on Geno Smith. The simple fact is Smith turns 33 next year and has had one good season. Hedging your bets isn’t a negative given recent performances haven’t been as strong:

Geno Smith

Weeks 1-4: 5th in EPA/play, 30.9 total EPA
Weeks 5-14: 18th in EPA/play, 29.7 total EPA

Mistakes have been killers, with Geno losing more expected points to INTs, sacks and fumbles since Week 5 than any other quarterback pic.twitter.com/1GximK1y3v

— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) December 12, 2022

Owning pick #2 would be a rare gift and an unusual, for this franchise, opportunity to select a top quarterback prospect. They would have to strongly consider that, even if they retain Smith as the starter. Quarterback is a critical position. Having a player for today and one learning and developing for the future would be a good plan. If they love Stroud, Levis or Richardson — the three available in McShay’s mock — it should be considered.

I do think it’s very possible the Seahawks draft a safety in the first two rounds. They have to be ruthless with Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams and can’t justify committing $36m to the pair in 2023. I’m not sure they’d do it at #18 though — or for Brian Branch. He is, as McShay notes, more of a hybrid slot/safety. At times he looks like a Rolls Royce gliding across the field but he can also pack a punch. He’s not an eraser or a strong safety though.

McShay:

It’s all defense in Round 1 for Seattle, after it took Jalen Carter at No. 2 — and Branch can impact every area of that side of the ball. You’ll see him down near the line of scrimmage trying to make a run stop, blitzing through gaps, holding up in coverage and showcasing his range and instincts on the back end. He fits this system and would be a great complement to rookie corners Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant. Jamal Adams is turning 28 next season, while Quandre Diggs will be 30, so adding to the safety room would be prudent. But Branch has played quite a bit of slot corner, and that’s where I’d expect him to make an impact early in his career.

Boise State’s J.L. Skinner looks a better fit and might be available early in round two. He is the closest thing I’ve seen to Kam Chancellor since Kam retired.

A quick final note — the updated draft list has Seattle now in possession of #17, not #18.

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1. It’s clear for all to see the defense needs a talent injection. It’s critical that improvements are made in the next draft and some difficult decisions need to be made on underperforming, expensive veterans already on the roster. They need to be ruthless in the off-season.

2. It’s also vital that the Seahawks are investing talent in the right scheme. Nothing about what we’re seeing this season suggests the changes for 2022 are worth persevering with. Fair play to them for trying something different but doubling down on a mistake would be a critical error. They should seriously consider going back to the classic Carroll defense, while ever he remains Head Coach, and drafting for that system. If that means further coaching changes, so be it.

3. If you’re running a Vic Fangio-style defense without Fangio on your staff — it probably isn’t going to work. See the Seahawks, Vikings and Chargers. Meanwhile Dan Quinn, Robert Salah and DeMeco Ryans are running schemes with a lot of Carroll DNA attached. To me it’s obvious if you’re adding talent, especially in the top-five of the next draft, you should put that talent in a system that is working within the league. Carroll isn’t hiring Fangio — so the Seahawks shouldn’t run a scheme influenced by him. It’s showing to be very difficult to re-create the success Fangio typically produces. If Fangio is a Rolex Watch, the Seahawks, Vikings and others seemingly bought a cheap knock-off on a street corner and are trying to pass it off as the real thing. Clearly, nobody’s having it.

4. Speaking of coaches — there was a Sunday Splash report suggesting San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans is a hot name for a Head Coaching role next season. It would be the third consecutive season a Niners coordinator was given a promotion. One thing we don’t talk enough about is how limp Seattle has been in this area. They have not added quality coaches with the talent and upside to progress through the ranks for many a year. There has been, however, some nepotism and cronyism. Admittedly they’ve also gone outside of the Carroll comfort zone to get Shane Waldron and Shaun Desai and credit to them for being prepared to do that. They need to keep looking though because the Niners are churning out candidates, the Rams have churned out candidates and the Seahawks have been badly lacking for some time. It appears they need more talent on their staff.

5. For all the talk of needing more talent on defense, here’s a quick reminder. Jordyn Brooks and LJ Collier were first round picks. Darrell Taylor and Boye Mafe were second round picks. Cody Barton is a third round pick. They paid to retain Poona Ford and Bryan Mone and Ford has the biggest cap-hit on the team this year. Uchenna Nwosu is the most expensive outside free agent they’ve ever signed. They re-signed Al Woods and brought back Quinton Jefferson. Next year, Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs are set to account for $36m of Seattle’s cap space. Nwosu and Shelby Harris combine for $25m. This is a defense that has been built and frankly, resources have been squandered. That should be remembered as we discuss whether this is just a situation that can be fixed by these decision makers simply adding more players. They need to do a much better job than they have been doing.

6. I feel like, as a fanbase, we’re on the brink of entering a really crap debate. I’m seeing it on Twitter today. It’s becoming ‘team draft a QB’ vs ‘team draft defense’. Here’s a suggestion — keep your options open. If they see a quarterback they love in this class, of course they should consider it — even if their intention is to re-sign Geno Smith. There’s nothing wrong with investing in that position and keeping Smith. If they love one of these QB’s, nobody should criticise them for taking that player. Equally if they aren’t enamoured with the early first round QB options and love a defensive talent — that’s fine too. Avoid a braincell-killing debate and just keep an open mind. There’s no right or wrong pick — QB or defense. Both are fine.

7. With the way the Seahawks are playing it’s hard to imagine them beating the Niners or Chiefs. Any given Sunday (or Thursday) and all that but if they lose both, they’ll be 7-8. Both the Jets and Rams games are winnable but the Jets are competing for the playoffs and the Rams seem determined to finish on a high despite their injuries. My prediction is they lose the next two and I think they win at least one of the Jets or Rams games to finish the season on a small high. The Lions have a reasonably favourable final four games (Jets, Panthers, Bears, Packers) and I think they’ll make the playoffs — meaning it’ll be one spot for the Seahawks, Giants and Commanders. Really, none of that trio belong in the playoffs — making a mockery of the nonsensical ‘seventh seed’ back-door qualifier which should be scrapped ASAP (but won’t be).

8. I don’t study every team of course — but is there another team with such a clearly defined preference on what they want their identity to be — but so consistently dip in and out of actually owning such an identity?

9. When you have a problem as serious as failing to stop the run — plus an inability to run the ball effectively yourselves — and these aspects are critical to your identity — when do some serious questions need to be asked about the total inability to scheme around such weaknesses to even limit the damage (or improve your situation) on even a minor level? Especially when you’re struggling against some of the weaker teams in the league?

Well, it was nice while it lasted.

A four-game winning streak provided a month of excitement. The Seahawks were the feel-good story of the league. Geno Smith was being talked about as a possible MVP candidate. The defense appeared fixed.

Could they win the NFC West? Were they even in a rebuild any more?

It turns out — yes they are. Very much so.

But it goes far beyond the need to keep adding talent.

The Seahawks defense has been a shambles for weeks now, returning to the early season disaster zone it was showing to be. It raises all sorts of questions about the future.

For example — if you’re going to build a defense, are you best adding talent to fit this particular scheme? If this is the wrong plan, will you make the situation worse doubling-down on a bad system?

For weeks now, despite the glaring problem and the very clear need to fix it, teams just run on the Seahawks with ease. You can’t keep playing this way. It can’t be this easy for a team to come to Seattle — especially a team like the Panthers — and ram it down your throat.

The Seahawks look brittle, finesse and soft. They have done since Germany. Look at the last couple of drives by Carolina. A 10-play, 74-yard churn including 68 rushing yards that took 5:26 off the clock in the fourth quarter, ending in a touchdown.

Then, to finish things, Carolina ran all over Seattle to allow time to expire.

They ran for 223 yards despite having a very unexciting passing game to balance things out.

On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks can’t run the ball themselves. Sure, the injuries didn’t help this week. But what about previous weeks when Ken Walker was healthy?

Pete Carroll’s philosophy is completely broken if you can’t run the ball or defend the run. It’s a broken formula that creates what we’re seeing currently. A mess.

It gets worse. The Seahawks are now 3-3 at home this season. Since 2018, they are 23-15 at home. That’s a problem that still warrants a broader question. Why has one of the previously most difficult venues to come and play in, actually become quite a welcoming stopover for many teams?

Amid all the relentless ‘pay Geno Smith’ talk on Twitter, a game today is why you wait it out. Games with multiple interceptions won’t help his marketing pitch. Yes, there’s a lot on his plate at the moment with the defense being dreadful and no running game. If you want to be a $30m man, however, you’ve got to find a way at home against the Panthers.

The Seahawks, as we’ve talked about quite a bit, have money tied to players next year who aren’t getting it done. Case in point, Quandre Diggs — who has an $18m cap hit in 2022. How can you justify that? Yet if they move on, they just start collecting dead money again. A habit that has been way too prevalent in recent years.

There’s a lot to do here. The 2022 draft class was a nice start to a major rebuild. The four-game winning streak occupied our minds for a while. This arse kicking was an embarrassment that exposed many warts. It hints that a back-door playoff run would simply spoil draft position — which is back on the menu as the priority with games like this.

We were hoping the Seahawks might be pushing forward, as the Lions are currently doing. Instead, they are regressing badly.

Making the matter all the more worse was Fox constantly advertising the World Cup semi-finals.

Hey, at least Denver lost and Seattle currently owns the #2 pick as a consequence. The way they competed against the Chiefs, however, suggests that might only be a temporary benefit.

If you’ve enjoyed the work and want to support the blog so that I can consider options for the pre-draft coverage in the new year, please consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. Apologies for the late posting, I had a rough Saturday night with England losing. After the game today tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel

The Seahawks need to look at this game as an end of one segment and the beginning of another.  Why?

This game finishes a tough quarter for the team.  After badly disappointing losses in Germany against Tampa and in Seattle hosting the Raiders, they went to Los Angeles and handled the Rams to give themselves a chance to split the quarter at 2-2 with a win this week against the Panthers.

It also starts the stretch run in which the Seahawks have four of their last five games at home.

In the old days, that was a big advantage.  The Seahawks were nearly unbeatable at home.  In recent years they have faltered.  They are 17-13 at home since 2019 and were a Pete Carrol-era worst 3-5 last year.

It is time to reclaim that identity and it starts on Sunday.  Can they do it?

That depends on if they can defeat the same opponent that they have been playing for the last three weeks.  What do I mean by that?

The Panthers are oddly similar to Tampa, Las Vegas and the Rams.  Consider:

• They are playing better than their record indicates and should not be taken lightly 
• They have an underrated running game the Seahawks will have to contend with
• Their quarterback position is not having the best season, but he can be effective if not bothered by the pass rush
• They have a defense you can move the ball and score on but has some dangerous players that can flip the game if you are not careful

One last factor has nothing to do with who they are playing:  With all due respect to their opponents so far this quarter, the Seahawks are just as responsible for their losses as the other teams are for their wins.  They have struggled with their own standards for good play, particularly on their defensive line.  

In the last three games, the Seahawks have had only five sacks, fourteen quarterback pressures and have given up 615 rushing yards.  That performance has led to them conceding an average of 28 per game.

Those numbers are unacceptable.  And in view of what the defense accomplished earlier in the season, are greatly due to their own poor game planning, coaching and play on the field.  

They can and must do better.  It must start Sunday against Carolina if they are to build up some momentum as they push to make the playoffs.

As they have a similar opponent, the Watch Points will not be too unfamiliar to regular readers.  

We will start with looking at where most games are won or lost – in the trenches.

The Panthers have won two of their last three, sandwiching wins against Atlanta and Denver around a loss to the Ravens.

What has been the difference?  Carolina’s lines on both sides.

The Seahawks Must Get Better Play from the Defensive Line

In their two wins, the Carolina offensive line has conceded only two sacks and a grand total of five pressures.  The team also gained 417 yards on the ground.  

Their loss to Baltimore?  Four sacks, seven pressures and only 36 rushing yards.  Baker Mayfield had to carry the offense and threw two interceptions in the loss.  (side note:  36-year-old Calais Campbell recorded a sack by absolutely manhandling Austin Corbett and then accelerating to Mayfield.  It was amazing.)

The Panthers have had a rising offensive line this season.  They are in the top-5 ranked units by PFF in pass protection, and every lineman has a PFF grade above 62.

Last week against a pretty good Broncos defensive front they kept Sam Darnold clean, not allowing a single sack and only allowing three pressures on 19 dropbacks.  The running backs carried the offense with 185 yards.

Now you see why I say this pattern is familiar.  The Seahawks have been unable to either stop the run or consistently bring pressure on the quarterback in recent weeks.  The Panthers controlled the line of scrimmage on offense and it showed.  

Do not let the Panthers’ coaching change or the revolving door at quarterback lull you into a false sense of confidence that this team is in shambles.  They are doing the best thing a team in their state can do:  running the ball a lot, protecting the quarterback and avoiding mistakes.  The defensive line has a tall task on Sunday.

D’Onta Foreman has been performing nicely for the Panthers since they traded Christian McCaffrey.  He is averaging 18 carries for 83 yards for a nice 4.59 yards per carry and .80 touchdowns in the span.  To give you a gauge, that is roughly what Dalvin Cook is averaging this year over 12 games.

Foreman has demonstrated a great vision in finding holes to run through.  He reminds me of Josh Jacobs in a way.  Even when he is contained, he still falls forward for three or four yards.  And when he finds an open lane, look out.  He is going to pick up some yards.

The challenge is, while he can run between the tackles effectively, his best runs this year have been exploiting the edges, an area where the Seahawks have been very poor.  Last week against the Rams, Sean McVay attacked Bruce Irvin on the right side mercilessly.  Irvin was frequently unable to establish the edge as he was either out of position or outmuscled by a blocker.

The Panther offense is not as creative as the Rams’ is – not many can say they are – but they have a more direct approach to running.  ‘This is what we’re going to do, and we’re going to move you out of our way.’  The defensive line needs better scheming and better play Sunday.  Success in the running game plays right into the Panthers’ success:  It eats the clock up, keeps Sam Darnold from having to carry more than he is capable of, the Panther pass rushers rested and the Seahawks’ explosive offensive players off the field.

It is critical that the Seahawks’ front seven play better Sunday.  Putting pressure on Sam Darnold to carry the offense will be job number one.

The Seahawks’ offensive line faces a similar task.

The Offensive Linemen Need to Control the Line of Scrimmage

In those two Panther wins, their defense recorded eight sacks and 29 pressures.  Their loss?  They did sack Lamar Jackson three times but only had four pressures.  Jackson was 24 for 33 but his receivers dropped five balls.  The point being, the passing game was not largely affected by the pass rush, as Jackson had enough time to go 29 for 33 in passing.

Brian Burns stands as a great young pass rusher with ten sacks so far this season.  Both offensive tackles will have to be sharp in order to keep him from wrecking the Seahawks’ plans on offense.

Derrick Brown is coming into his own as a run-stopping force in the middle.  He is sporting a very robust 85.5 PFF grade, and is sixth in the NFL in tackles for interior linemen with 50.  Austin Blythe and the guards will have their hands full trying to keep him in check.

And yet, there is a yin-and-yang quality to this defense.  Burns is a great pass-rusher and that is very impactful.  But he has yet to round out his game, as he has not been able to attain at least a 70 PFF score on a season.  He is still learning when to explode up the field and when to read the play and stay home and help in the running game.

And Brown?  He has provided disruption for other players but has really yet to reach the pass rush plateau he projected as the #7 overall pick in 2020.  He has only one sack and ten pressures this year.

Further:  Those two weeks where they won games and were rushing the passer well?  They gave up 259 rushing yards on 44 attempts for an ugly 5.88 yards per carry average.

On a season level, they are in the bottom ten for sacks and pressures, and have conceded 100 yards rushing in every game except two.

This defense is a work in progress, and there is a formula to having offensive success against them.

It does start with the boys up front.  You can look at stats for a year stretch and a three-game stretch and project all you like.  But in the moment, those things melt away when you are lining up across these two talented players.  The whole line will need to execute to keep them from severely altering your offensive game plan.

But it is also up to the Shane Waldron and the staff to unlock that formula.

Use the Offense to Control the Game

This is not a new topic.  The defense has been wanting this year, while the offense most often has been the one to propel the team forward.

Absent a much better performance from the defense on Sunday, it will fall on the offense once again to deliver a win for the team.

They have done incredibly well this year, and yet at times because of the defense, we find ourselves needing just a tad bit more.  A turnover here, a penalty there, or a lack of a consistent run game that we are used to can be the difference in a tough game like this.  Their execution will need to be on point.

Geno Smith has reached the point where surprise at his excellent performance on the field has morphed into consistent high expectations.  Fans already anticipate another 70% completion game where Smith spreads the ball all around the field.  Last week he took another step forward, answering the ‘but he has not led a game-winning fourth quarter drive yet’ concern decisively.

This week?  As all players know, past successes need to be relegated to the background of their mind and proper focus needs to be placed on the task at hand.

He will need to execute Waldron’s gameplan at a high level once again.  This week, it may mean picking up the slack for a run game that cannot get untracked, or making a quicker decision than he would like because a pass rusher is in his face.

It may mean targeting C.J. Henderson, who is allowing a 76.8% completion rate and a 110 QB rating, as opposed to rising star Jaycee Horn (51.2% completion and 48 QB rating).  Or it may mean trusting his wide receivers when Horn is covering them and making accurate throws that give them a shot.

There will be a balance that is needed, one quality that Geno and the offense have excelled at so far.  Using the tight ends, the run game and taking shots to the wide receivers for big plays will all be needed to be sprinkled into the game liberally.  A ‘let’s play conservative and see how the game unfolds’ approach the Seahawks have at times deployed will not be the easiest path to success.

The Seahawks need to take the field and clearly demonstrate why they are stretching forward to the playoffs while the Panthers are once again looking forward to the draft next year.  A 14-0 lead early in the game would be just what the doctor ordered.  It would take the Panther offense out of their comfort zone and help the defense pin their ears back and get aggressive with some sacks or forcing some turnovers.

There is potential that this game could propel them into their Thursday night matchup against San Francisco with gusto.  They will need all the momentum they can muster if they are to contend for the NFC West division title.  A win on Sunday could be the start of something big.

Further to my point earlier in the week about how people view the quarterback class, I wanted to raise another point.

I’m seeing a lot of weird and wonderful projections at the moment regarding Florida’s Anthony Richardson. The thought of him lasting into round two seems a bit fanciful to me — but we’ve been here before.

For some reason the mainstream media consistently struggles with the unpolished or players that emerge without years of limelight games in college football.

If you play for Alabama for two or three years (see: Tua Tagovailoa, Bryce Young) then a lot of possible flaws will be overlooked. In other cases — extreme talent will be dismissed as ‘raw’ or ‘needing a lot of work’.

There are two glaring examples of this.

Whatever you think of Kyler Murray today — it was clear at Oklahoma that he was a special player. He did things we haven’t seen other players do. His talent was, frankly, outrageous. He was an outstanding playmaker with arm talent, creativity, scrambling dynamism and he was destined to be a very high pick.

The mainstream media instead focused on the potential of him playing baseball for longer than was necessary and when he eventually committed to football, it was the norm to see him being mocked in the late first or early second round.

In this article, Mel Kiper had him listed below a cluster of other quarterbacks — including Ryan Finley and Jarrett Stidham.

He was picked in the first round in the MLB draft and got a $4.6 million signing bonus with the Oakland Athletics. The reason Murray is on this list? There’s at least a small chance that he tries to play both sports or gives up baseball for football. If he commits to football — and gives up that guaranteed money from the A’s — McShay believes he will be a first-round pick, while Kiper thinks he’d go on Day 2 in April. Murray is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback, but his true height is an issue for football. Not so much on the baseball diamond.

It soon became very clear that Murray was going to the Cardinals with the #1 pick and the media changed its tune. Kiper was not alone, however, in projecting Murray to the second round.

There’s an even more glaring example.

Patrick Mahomes wasn’t even listed in Daniel Jeremiah’s top-50 prospects in his February list ahead of the 2017 draft. That wouldn’t be so bad — but in an updated version in April, Mahomes still wasn’t listed in the top-50.

Deshone Kizer, however, was ranked on both occasions.

In Jeremiah’s April 2017 mock draft, he eventually did include Mahomes in round one — at #27 overall. Deshaun Watson wasn’t included in the first frame. They ended up being the #10 and #12 picks respectively.

Mahomes himself revealed he was given a second round grade by the draft committee.

The excellent Lance Zierlein graded Mahomes at a 6.30 — a lower grade than Drew Lock (6.40). In his report, Zierlein noted:

Mahomes will be a work in progress, but he’s a high ceiling, low floor prospect.

Which, funnily enough, is exactly what is being said about Anthony Richardson.

None of this means Richardson is guaranteed to go in the top-10 as I suspect he will. It definitely doesn’t mean he’ll go first overall — which I think is a possibility.

What it does show, however, is that the mainstream media has previous with underrating extreme potential due to a perception of players being ‘raw’ or simply not being seen as ‘big names’ in college football for long enough to earn some hype. The evidence, in fact, shows that teams are prepared to invest in players with a big upside. Especially at the most important position in the sport.

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“That won’t happen”

The immortal words uttered every year at this time, whenever anyone dares to think outside of the box relating to the draft.

The truth is there isn’t an obvious #1 overall pick for 2023. There’s no Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck. There’s no Myles Garrett. It’s a wide open, fluid situation — just as it was this year.

Travon Walker was not even being discussed as a potential top pick 12 months ago. He finished his final season at Georgia (the National Champions) with six sacks. He only recorded 9.5 sacks in his three-year college career.

If you suggested last December that he was destined to go first overall, people would’ve scoffed at the suggestion.

Many pundits liked him but he wasn’t even a consensus top-10 pick. He was #15 on Daniel Jeremiah’s first top-50 board, published in January. Mel Kiper mocked him at #24 in his first mock draft. It wasn’t until the combine that people even started to consider he might go in the top-five.

I don’t think anyone’s going to make a rise quite like that in 2023 but there are a cluster of potential #1 overall picks and it’s to be determined who are the serious contenders for the top pick.

Group think is rampant among the NFL Draft community. It’s not surprising either. The overwhelming majority of people don’t have the time to watch the necessary amount of tape to get a proper angle on a draft class.

As such, people copy the opinions that are widespread. Especially now that we’re entering a period where draft articles get a lot of traction, in particular mock drafts. Journalists who have watched little or no tape and simple peruse the content online will begin to talk about options for the teams they cover.

I am not for a second claiming I have all the answers, as I don’t. But I do watch tape every day, including for several hours every weekend. I embrace this is all very geeky.

The amount of time I spend watching players is equal to that of a full-time job. It’s a gruelling commitment and you have to love doing it, especially when you already have a full-time job and family commitments. You also need a saintly wife who is supportive and laid back about a husband’s nonsensical obsession.

If you don’t have time to watch hours and hours of tape every week — and you are writing articles or mock drafts — of course you’re going to resort to the consensus. It’s understandable. But does it achieve anything other than to drive a false narrative?

Plenty of people rely on big name pundits for their info. That in itself is problematic. I don’t want to pile on Daniel Jeremiah but he provides the best example. He published a top-50 prospects article on NFL.com before the 2021 Senior Bowl which didn’t include big-name prospect Boye Mafe. He then attended the Senior Bowl, broadcasting daily for the NFL Network. The week after the Senior Bowl, he tweeted he’d watched Mafe tape after an impressive showing in Mobile and decided he was a first round talent.

This begs a lot of questions. Why is Jeremiah publishing a top-50 board if he hasn’t even extended his study to someone as well known as Mafe? Why isn’t he studying Mafe’s tape before going to Mobile, given he was one of the biggest name players attending the Senior Bowl and Jeremiah was providing commentary on the event? How much tape study does Jeremiah actually do during the college football season when these players are providing weekly showcases of their talent?

Is it unfair to expert a leading draft expert to actually have a firm grasp of the big name prospects before the draft season begins?

There’s a consensus view that the affable and charismatic Jeremiah is a leading voice on the draft and his opinions are often taken as gospel. I thought the Mafe situation, though, was illuminating.

I suppose the point of this opening ramble is to make a plea to keep an open mind. When I write that I think Jalen Carter, Anthony Richardson or Will Levis could be the #1 pick — it’s not an attempt to be dramatic. It’s based on a humungous study of this class and league trends. It will go against the mainstream consensus but it doesn’t mean it won’t happen. We’ve been here before — talking about how Kyler Murray would go first overall when the mainstream thought he’d stick to baseball or be a late first rounder, or projecting Joe Burrow #1 when the world was still fixated on Justin Herbert and ‘Tank for Tua’.

I would encourage everyone to do their own research and come to your own conclusions. I hope this blog mainly just gives you some names to seek out. I’d also stress to think outside of the box. The consensus view online often isn’t how things end up playing out.

Moving on…

Georgia’s comfortable win over LSU was quite an interesting game to follow. Jalen Carter was typically disruptive — again showing off his ability to win with an electric rip/swim or just blow through blocks with sheer power.

Carter has everything needed to be a highly disruptive interior force. These types of players are increasingly rare. At times he reminds me of a shorter Calais Campbell at his peak. He has positional flexibility and can play across the line. You can move him around to attack from different angles.

It won’t be a surprise if he is graded higher than anyone else come draft time — or possibly second only in terms of pure talent to Bijan Robinson. That will squarely put him in the #1 overall pick equation. These types of players don’t come along very often and if the Texans are not completely sold on the QB class — they might opt for a more long-term view. After all, their roster is a shambles. They could decide to start their next era — presumably with a new coach (and maybe a new GM) by building up their defense. Especially if they fall for Carter — which is possible.

If he doesn’t go first overall, he will leave the board as soon as a team not in need of a quarterback is on the clock. If Chicago sticks at #2 overall, they will take him. He is a better prospect than Will Anderson and will be the first non-QB drafted, short of any unexpected injury or character flags.

That’s not to say he’s a flawless player. I do think there are a couple of quibbles. LSU moved the ball effectively early in the SEC Championship and kept Georgia’s defense on the field. Carter looked absolutely knackered after the first series. I did wonder a little bit about his conditioning but in fairness after a breather (and when Georgia’s offense started to dominate) he came roaring back. It might be, however, that he needs a bit of time to get up to speed with the physical demands of the NFL — something that isn’t unusual for bigger defenders.

There’s also some inconsistency to his game and he does take some snaps off. It’s not a massive issue, just something worth pointing out. In college he is a better athlete than most of his opponents. When that isn’t the case in the NFL, he’ll need to become more rounded and find a base level of performance and effort. That’s not a reason not to take him though, you work on that when he’s in the building.

He was constantly disruptive against LSU and will go in the top-two, I think. Unlike Will Anderson — who has had an underwhelming season, lacks great size and is more of a developmental project — he is a player teams will believe is ready to come and have an impact immediately.

Two other quick comments on Georgia players. Safety Chris Smith — a fine player — had a heads-up play to return a field goal for a touchdown. He also had a bit of a whiff on a Kayshon Boutte touchdown — making up for it later on with a nice interception.

Cornerback Kelee Ringo continues to misjudge throws and doesn’t track the ball consistently enough. While he’s a superb athlete with great size — he simply isn’t a great cornerback at the moment. Is he too big? He makes some good plays but gets beaten on others. He’s a real mystery for the next level and it’s tricky to judge his stock.

I also watched the ACC Championship game in what proved to be a bit of a damp squib as a contest. However, despite Clemson dominating North Carolina, I thought it was another majorly disappointing showing by the Tigers’ vaunted D-line.

I just don’t get why nobody is talking about Myles Murphy’s underwhelming play? Yes he’s a good athlete and has decent size. That’s fine. He plays with almost no aggression though. I’ve said it numerous times — he’s a pussycat defending the run and he’s hardly a ‘hair on fire’ dynamic pass rusher either.

Murphy finishes the season with 6.5 sacks in 13 games. That’s it. He had eight sacks in ten games last season, so his production has actually gone down. He also has three fewer TFL’s than last year (11 vs 14.5). It was embarrassing watching him get his arse kicked by Notre Dame a few weeks ago and he’s not had a bounce-back performance since. I’ve watched all of his 2022 games and just came away underwhelmed.

I think there’s a legit fear that he’s a big-time recruit who has found High School easy because of his physical profile and in college he’s also athletic enough to get by. At the next level, he’s going to need to show so much more. His body lacks muscle definition and he just gives off a vibe of never really having to work at his craft. That ends the minute he comes into the NFL. Teams will need to believe he is prepared to go above and beyond to become great because to me he just seems like an athlete at the moment, not a football player.

His team mate K.J. Henry has been far more aggressive, consistent and disruptive this season.

Meanwhile, Bryan Bresee continues to be spelled constantly. I will say, he had a few impactful snaps against North Carolina. Some of the aggression, power and speed that Bresee clearly has jumped off the screen as he barged his way into the backfield. The flashes he showed reminded me why I initially had him rated higher than Jalen Carter at the start of the season. Bresee clearly has talent.

The problem is he hasn’t put together an actual season. A year ago he suffered an ACL injury. This year he had the sad passing of his younger sister, a kidney problem and then strep throat — all of which kept him off the field or stuck in a rotational role.

Bresee makes for a really difficult projection. I can well imagine him having better fortune in the pro’s and just shining as a dominant player. In High School, as I’ve said a few times, he had the Jadeveon Clowney vibe of looking like an adult playing against kids. You even see some of that in college at times. Bresee’s physical talent is freakishly impressive.

He might last on the board into the teens and be the steal of the class. Or he might never be able to stay healthy or find the consistency that will elevate him to elite status.

Bresee will potentially split opinion in draft rooms around the league because knowing the right range to take a chance on him will be a tricky square to circle. The talent is clear. If only he’d had a good solid ten-game run to feel confident he can stay healthy, productive and consistent.

The Clemson defenders are so much of a challenge this year. Everyone loves Trenton Simpson but he had a poor college season, failed to make enough plays and aside from his expected testing results, has not performed like a first round talent. The aforementioned K.J. Henry has been really active and is a former five-star recruit who is seen as an emotional leader on the defense. However, he only finished the season with 3.5 sacks and nine TFL’s despite looking disruptive all year. Is he enough of a finisher? Or do you buy-in based on the disruption?

I do really like Clemson left tackle Jordan McFadden as a guard convert. He has the size of a guard but has played well at tackle. I think he’s a top-50 talent pre-testing.

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