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The first 2021 mock draft

Jaelen Phillips is enjoying an impressive season with Miami

Testing will be more important than ever this year. The highly disrupted college football season and number of opt-outs will make the combine a vital event.

It’s high time the NFL incentivised doing all the tests. The 2020 combine was a nonsense. Several big names didn’t perform. The shift to primetime led to many players skipping the agility testing because they’d have to do it at 9-10pm.

Schedule the on-field drills and agility/explosive testing for different days. Reward players financially for competing. If you want this to be a major television event, we need to see the big names in college football on the field.

There are stars available in the top-10 but then there’s a predictable drop-off. However, even at this early stage there appears to be some intriguing depth lasting into round two.

I’ve done a two-round mock draft so that the Seahawks are included.

First round

#1 New York Jets — Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson)
#2 Jacksonville — Justin Fields (QB, Ohio State)
#3 Washington — Penei Sewell (T, Oregon)
#4 Dallas — Shaun Wade (CB, Ohio State)
#5 LA Chargers — Ja’Marr Chase (WR, LSU)
#6 Miami (via HOU) — Micah Parsons (LB, Penn State)
#7 Cincinnati — Rasheed Walker (T, Penn State)
#8 New York Giants — Patrick Surtain II (CB, Alabama)
#9 Carolina — Zach Wilson (QB, BYU)
#10 Atlanta — Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB, Notre Dame)
#11 Denver — Walker Little (T, Stanford)
#12 San Francisco — Trey Lance (QB, North Dakota State)
#13 Detroit — Dayo Odeyingbo (DE, Vanderbilt)
#14 Minnesota — Gregory Rousseau (DE, Miami)
#15 New England — Kyle Pitts (TE, Florida)
#16 Chicago — Rondale Moore (WR, Purdue)
#17 Cleveland — Kwity Paye (DE, Michigan)
#18 Tennessee — Patrick Jones (DE, Pittsburgh)
#19 Philadelphia — DeVonta Smith (WR, Alabama)
#20 Arizona — Jaycee Horn (CB, South Carolina)
#21 Miami — Travis Etienne (RB, Clemson)
#22 Indianapolis — Davis Mills (QB, Stanford)
#23 Jacksonville (via LAR) — Pat Freiermuth (TE, Penn State)
#24 Baltimore — Josh Myers (C, Ohio State)
#25 Las Vegas — Zaven Collins (LB, Tulsa)
#26 New York Jets (v/SEA) — Jaylen Waddle (WR, Alabama)
#27 Tampa Bay — Rashawn Slater (G, Northwestern)
#28 Buffalo — Jalen Mayfield (T, Michigan)
#29 Green Bay — Caleb Farley (CB, Virginia Tech)
#30 Kansas City — Azeez Ojulari (DE, Georgia)
#31 New Orleans — Dylan Moses (LB, Alabama)
#32 Pittsburgh — Alex Leatherwood (T, Alabama)

Second round

#33 New York Jets — Najee Harris (RB, Alabama)
#34 Jacksonville — Christian Darrisaw (T, Virginia Tech)
#35 Dallas — Alim McNeill (DT, NC State)
#36 LA Chargers — Wyatt Davis (G, Ohio State)
#37 Miami (v/HOU) — Terrace Marshall Jr (WR, LSU)
#38 Washington — Andre Cisco (S, Syracuse)
#39 Cincinnati — Ronnie Perkins (DE, Oklahoma)
#40 Carolina — Obinna Eze (T, Memphis)
#41 New York Giants — Seth Williams (WR, Auburn)
#42 Denver — Jordan Davis (DT, Georgia)
#43 Atlanta — Carlos Basham (DE, Wake Forest)
#44 San Francisco — Jevon Holland (S, Oregon)
#45 Jacksonville (v/MIN) — Jaylen Twyman (DT, Pittsburgh)
#46 New England — Mac Jones (QB, Alabama)
#47 Detroit — Rashod Bateman (WR, Minnesota)
#48 Chicago — Carson Strong (QB, Nevada)
#49 Tennessee — Chris Olave (WR, Ohio State)
#50 Cleveland — Aaron Banks (G, Notre Dame)
#51 Philadelphia — Aidan Hutchinson (DE, Michigan)
#52 Arizona — Jayson Oweh (DE, Penn State)
#53 Indianapolis — Dillon Radunz (T, North Dakota State)
#54 LA Rams — Nate Landman (LB, Colorado)
#55 Baltimore — Paris Ford (S, Pittsburgh)
#56 Miami — Tylan Wallace (WR, Oklahoma State)
#57 Las Vegas — Jake Ferguson (TE, Wisconsin)
#58 Tampa Bay — Jackson Carman (T, Clemson)
#59 Buffalo — Nick Bolton (LB, Missouri)
#60 Seattle — Jaelen Phillips (DE, Miami)
#62 Kansas City — Kenny Yeboah (TE, Ole Miss)
#63 New Orleans — Nico Collins (WR, Michigan)
#64 Pittsburgh — Kellen Mond (QB, Texas A&M)

Notes on Seattle’s pick

There were some attractive options still on the board in the mid-to-late second round.

I’m a big fan of Notre Dame left guard Aaron Banks. He’s a people-mover with great size. He’d be an ideal fit at left guard yet the Seahawks could be inclined to let Jordan Simmons and Phil Haynes compete for that spot in 2021. They’ve also favoured experience on the O-line in recent years, with the exception of Damien Lewis. That said, Banks and Lewis would be a fantastic guard combo for the long term future.

USC defensive tackle Jay Tufele has his admirers but given he’s opted out, it’s difficult to judge exactly where his stock is. Marvin Wilson is extremely athletic but his play on an admittedly awful Florida State team has been concerning. Levi Onwuzurike has flashed for Washington but is another player who’s opted out and would’ve really benefitted from showing what he can do this year.

I suspect they won’t draft a tight end early but Jake Ferguson has everything you want physically in a top-TE prospect. He’s added production this year and is really starting to look the part. Miami’s Brevin Jordan has exciting physical tools but has missed time with injury recently. Kenny Yeboah is having a superb season for Ole Miss and will have many admirers. He has a great ability to climb to the second level and create mismatch opportunities. He’s a modern X-factor weapon and could be a discount alternative to Kyle Pitts.

Notre Dame left tackle Liam Eichenburg is talented but has limitations and might need to shift inside to guard. There are a number of big name receivers available in Seattle’s picking range (although I’m not convinced the likes of Collins, Olave and Wallace will run in the 4.4’s).

At #60 I gave Seattle Miami’s UCLA transfer Jaelen Phillips. He’s a former 5-star recruit who was once the #3 overall prospect in High School. So far this season, his first in Miami, he has an impressive 10.5 TFL’s, five sacks and an interception. He’s well sized at 6-5 and 266lbs. He caught my eye against Virginia Tech where he showed an exciting ability to win off the edge with quickness (2.5 sacks in the game) and I’ve since watched two further games. He is a hidden gem with the profile and talent to be a top pro.

He’s getting better every week with enough size to hold the POA and control the edge but the quickness and dip to win 1v1 and pressure the quarterback.

However, there’s a reason why he could last into the late second round.

His time at UCLA was marred by a series of concussions. In fact a spokesperson for UCLA reportedly said Phillips had opted to medically retire in December 2018 due to his concussion history.

Instead he entered the transfer portal. He had to sit out the 2019 season, which was perhaps helpful. So far he’s not suffered any health setbacks.

The Seahawks have taken chances to acquire extreme physical talent in the late second round before. Frank Clark had off-field concerns. We talked a lot about D.K. Metcalf’s situation during the 2018 college football season and that he almost had to retire due to a neck injury.

If you’re looking for major upside sometimes you have to roll the dice. Pass rush remains a big need for the Seahawks and adding options to create a better rotation has to be a consideration.

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Friday notes: Keep Carlos, TE thoughts & time to snarl

The winning moment — Carlos Dunlap sacks Kyler Murray

Carlos Dunlap must be retained in 2021

It’s not an exaggeration to say he’s been a revelation so far. His 3.5 sacks in three games barely tells the full story. The Seahawks’ pass rush was inept until his arrival. They needed someone, anyone, to provide some pressure off the edge. Dunlap is delivering that and it’s validating the A+ grade many people awarded the trade when it was completed.

There’s always some caution in celebrating a victory too soon. Quandre Diggs looked like an inspired addition a year ago but his play in 2020 hasn’t followed up a strong start. The same could happen for Dunlap, especially as he turns 32 in February.

However, the Seahawks have seen Frank Clark and Jadeveon Clowney walk out the door in back-to-back seasons. Eventually — they need to keep somebody and build around them, rather than constantly be looking for the next replacement.

Dunlap’s cap hit of $14.25m is steep in 2021 but none of it is guaranteed. A short-term extension that includes new guarantees to lower the hit would be wise — securing the Seahawks with a capable edge rusher to lead their pass rush.

The Greg Olsen injury has a plus side

Will Dissly is in year three of his rookie deal and Jacob Hollister is playing on his second-round RFA tender.

The Seahawks have smartly preserved Dissly after two serious injuries in back-to-back years. However, now is the time to test whether he can stay on the field. His talent and consistency make him a candidate to be Seattle’s long term answer at tight end. Olsen’s injury gives them a reason to see if he can make it so.

It’s also important to see more of Hollister. Do you want to re-sign him in the off-season? If nothing else, he has the incentive of playing in a contract year. He’s also been somewhat underused so far as a receiving tight end who could offer a lot more in the passing game.

There’s also Colby Parkinson. It’s often forgotten but going into the 2019 season, Parkinson had some tentative first and second round grades attached to his name. His stock dropped dramatically after a difficult season for Stanford, mainly due to the horrible play of quarterback KJ Costello.

We’ve since seen Costello go and struggle for Mississippi State after transferring and Parkinson’s raw talent and potential was largely hidden within a stuttering offense.

It’s worth introducing him into the offense — even if it’s only for the sake of experience. He has a lot of potential and could develop into a useful player for the Seahawks. He has great size and like most of the top TE’s in the NFL, he performed well in the agility testing at the combine (three-cone, short shuttle).

Harnessing his talent and expanding the roles of Dissly and Hollister could add a lot to the offense — especially given Olsen’s underwhelming performances so far.

They have to bring the intensity

By week 11 in 2014, the Seahawks were facing a crossroads.

They’d endured a tough season so far — highlighted by the Percy Harvin fallout and persistent rumours that they’d had enough of Marshawn Lynch.

A 24-20 loss in Kansas City looked closer than it was. The Seahawks were poor and fell to 6-4. It looked like they were going to struggle to make the playoffs a year after winning the Super Bowl.

The key veterans circled the wagon and hosted Arizona the following week. The Cardinals were leading the division at 9-1. It was a must-win game to stand any chance of catching them.

The Seahawks were snarling, angry and brutal. They played a typically physical game. It wasn’t pretty but they won 19-3.

It launched a six game winning streak. They beat San Francisco by the same scoreline on Thanksgiving and then ran the table. They finished 12-4, won the NFC West and returned to the Super Bowl.

The current Seahawks have far more issues than the 2014 group. They also don’t have Lynch, the LOB, Bennett and Avril and many others.

That said, a similar opportunity is emerging.

As with 2014, there’s nothing particularly scary about Seattle’s remaining schedule. They had a get-right win at home to the Cardinals, who were again leading the NFC West, and now face a challenge of building on that.

Six years ago the key was to really embrace the building momentum and thrive in the opportunity to smack opponents around, show them who’s boss and get the season back on track.

This year there’s a lot more to it. They have to try and play with sound fundamentals on defense consistently. As highlighted alarmingly by Brett Kollmann and Chris Simms this week — they’ve been making some hideous mistakes.

They also need to stick to the formula that helped get things right yesterday (essentially not depend exclusively on the quarterback), play with intensity and attitude and try to launch another strong finishing run.

In recent years they haven’t ‘finished’ very well. They’re only 14-10 in the final six games over the last four seasons. That includes three years where they finished 3-3.

Philadelphia (A), New York Giants (H), New York Jets (H) and Washington (A) is a four-game run they need to attack — setting up decisive NFC West rematches with LA and San Francisco.

They need to prove they can stay on track, win the games they’re supposed to win and continue to show massive improvement on defense in order to reinvigorate faith that this won’t be another wasted season. Yesterday was a good start — but it’s only a start until they prove otherwise. Contrary to what some people might think — the issues raised in the aftermath of the Buffalo and LA losses aren’t simply brushed away after one win.

Even so, the NFC is still wide open and that’s unlikely to change between now and Christmas.

Arizona aren’t actually that good

I thought the Seahawks would win last night mainly because I don’t think the Cardinals are that good.

Kyler Murray is clearly superb — although I was a little surprised that Fox dedicated their entire pre-game show to him, rather than an even split in what looked like a fascinating contest between two exciting quarterbacks.

Here’s the reality with the Cardinals though. They are missing their best pass rusher and their top three defensive tackles. They also have a few niggles elsewhere, including the quarterback and running back.

If it wasn’t for a hail mary last Sunday, they’d be 5-5 for the season right now. Had the Seahawks not thrown away the game in Arizona, they’d be 4-5. They’ve lost to the Lions, Panthers and Dolphins.

They have some terrific individual stars and will probably win nine or ten games. Yet realistically they’re probably nearer 8-8 than 13-3.

I still think if the Seahawks are going to win the NFC West it’s the team in LA they need to be most wary of.

Mock draft on the way

I’ve written my first 2021 mock draft and it’s ready to roll. I was saving it for this mini-bye week and will post it over the weekend.

Finally, if you missed last nights instant reaction podcast, check it out here:

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Instant reaction: Seahawks claim must-win game

The Seahawks couldn’t afford to lose this game.

A loss would’ve effectively put them two games behind the Cardinals due to the tiebreaker. Even with the easiest remaining schedule in the league, it would’ve taken a big effort to overcome that deficit.

More importantly, it would’ve felt like a crisis. It would’ve meant four defeats in five and a season spinning out of control.

Crisis averted.

Overall it felt very much like an old-school Thursday night game. The quality has improved over the last couple of years but when the NFL introduced these mid-week games initially, they were littered with errors.

Both teams made a series of headache-inducing mistakes.

Quandre Diggs turned a three-and-out into an extended touchdown drive with a needless hit. Not to be outdone, Dre Kirkpatrick duly returned the favour with an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on fourth down at midfield (leading to a Seattle touchdown).

D.K. Metcalf had two drops — including a football to the face right before half-time. Kyler Murray took an intentional grounding penalty on his own two-yard line, leading to a vital safety on the very next play.

Jason Myers missed an extra point which could’ve been important at the end and Patrick Peterson gave up a major pass interference call right before half-time, gifting the Seahawks three points.

The two teams combined for 18 total penalties.

The officials didn’t help matters with some glaring errors — adding to the overall sloppiness of the occasion.

Nevertheless, the Seahawks were victorious and showed some spirit and character to be the last man standing.

The Russell Wilson for MVP bus has been parked in favour of a more balanced attack and the benefits were clear for all to see tonight. Wilson is a sensational player very capable of winning games on his own. However, like practically every QB who has ever lived, he benefits from support in the form of a productive running game.

Seattle ran for 165 yards and felt in control for pretty much the whole game. The scoreboard was always relatively close and that’s the downside of this kind of game plan. Yet at the end of the day, this is only the second win of the season where things felt somewhat in hand. It’s not a coincidence that it worked alongside Carlos Hyde’s return and a much more complementary offense.

Defensively, some of the season-long issues remain. Tre Flowers is a big problem as a starter. Jamal Adams looks like he’s freelancing and doing whatever he wants and I’m not entirely sure it’s working the way Seattle hoped. There were a few too many long conversions too — with Seattle conceding 6-11 on third down.

Even so — there were also reasons to praise the defense for a change.

Carlos Dunlap had two sacks and a further impact play and looks every bit the defensive end Seattle badly needed to add in March. His presence on the defensive line is a major boost and that was an excellent trade prior to the deadline.

L.J. Collier also had a sack but a much more important act was his ability to draw the holding call in the end zone that led to a safety and two points.

K.J. Wright covering ground with supreme agility to deny Kyler Murray on a scramble before half-time stole an extra possession for Seattle, enabling them to claim three points.

And at the end, when they needed a stop, they found one. Not for the first time this season admittedly — but this one was a lot less stressful and desperate.

I said in our pre-game podcast on Tuesday that I thought Seattle would win this game. The key now is to try and keep growing while also winning. Nothing was solved tonight. All of the big problems discussed yesterday still exist. The defense, especially the way it is coached and has been taught, is probably going to be an issue for the rest of the season.

However, they have a mini-bye before playing the Eagles. They need to launch another winning run before a key week-16 rematch with the Rams. They needed this one and they got it.

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It’s time to be honest about the state of the Seahawks

Go and listen to this weeks Brock and Salk podcast.

Here’s the link.

You will not hear better analysis on the Seahawks.

Every relevant topic is covered. No punches are pulled.

It’s exactly the type of conversation we need to be having.

Here’s an image that pretty much sums up the rest of the Seattle media currently:

They’re very prepared to get worked up about a decision to punt at midfield at the start of the second half in a four point game. In the grand scheme of things, that is a total irrelevance. It’s meaningless.

On a list of worthwhile topics to discuss, it’s about 79th in the pecking order.

Where was the serious analysis of Seattle’s hapless off-season (which some referred to as ‘fantastic’)? Where are the serious, probing questions about the fact this team has the worst defense in the NFL?

Why hasn’t anyone put to Carroll how they can be this bad on defense after spending $50m and using three first round picks, a second round pick and three third round picks?

Why hasn’t anyone asked about the 1-5 run in the NFC West? Or the 1-5 run against the Rams? Or the all too frequent out-coaching that has been extremely evident in the second half against Arizona and the full games in Buffalo and LA?

The defense is totally broken. The spirt and toughness that was so crucial in the early Carroll years seems to be completely gone. Jamal Adams tweeted, ‘we all we got, we all we need’ after the Buffalo game. It was insulting to use that term, made famous by Red Bryant and the band of brothers from 2010 onwards.

You don’t get to say ‘we all we got, we all we need’ after that disgraceful showing against the Bills.

This video published today highlighting Seattle’s issues on defense is an absolute horror show:

It’s stunning just how badly called, organised and executed the defense is. It’s hopeless. It’s absolutely hopeless.

There’s a lot wrong with the Seahawks and yet sometimes, you’d hardly notice.

Brock and Salk, thankfully, still do a weekly podcast. It’s manna from heaven. A proper, adult conversation covering the important topics involving this team.

No shirking. No hiding.

They compared the current defense to the Jim Mora 2009 season. It’s totally fair. In fact you could argue that if the 2009 team had Russell Wilson and D.K. Metcalf — they’d probably be 6-3 or somewhere close to it too. The quarterback, as badly as he’s played in the last month, masks many blemishes.

Here’s something else Brock Huard said that stands out:

“Pete, if I was sitting with you on a Monday, I’d say, ‘Pete, why and how has your team morphed into such a finesse football team that gets punched in the face consistently?'”

It’s a fair question. One that should be asked.

Ruffling a few feathers is what you’re supposed to do in the media. The industry isn’t there to accommodate you. It’s not an extended vacation, where you get to bask in the glory of doing a cool job.

You’re there to get answers. To push and probe. To point things out.

People won’t like it. You might put a few noses out of joint. That’s part of the business.

It’s not like the Seattle media are being fed a long list of breaking stories either and need to protect a source.

So far this year we’ve had multiple occasions where Carroll has received gushing, uncomfortable praise from a radio host. Bobby Wagner hasn’t had his performances challenged, rather he was asked whether he believes a handful of journalists could beat several highly athletic pro-athletes in a basketball game. Last week Brian Schottenheimer was asked what sauce he likes on a hotdog.

Today, Carroll was asked who picks the jersey colour for each game.

I appreciate not every question can be a gruelling, direct fastball. I’m also well aware how difficult this job can be. Finding the right balance between maintaining a relationship and being seen to hold people to account isn’t always easy.

Surely though we’re well past the point of a few more difficult questions needing to be asked? Again, watch the video above. How is anyone getting away with an easy ride for this?

Assuming Carroll or Wagner or Russell Wilson won’t answer in a satisfactory manner isn’t an excuse. You’ve still got to be seen to be asking the questions.

I suspect Carroll would be more than willing to be challenged. He’s worked in New York, Boston and LA. This isn’t his first rodeo.

Thankfully Brock and Salk were willing to have the kind of debate we need to be having.

I said in my own podcast yesterday that I think the Seahawks will beat the Cardinals on Thursday (the video is at the bottom of the article). I don’t think it’ll change anything though.

The state of the franchise is completely up in the air. The defense is a shambles. The identity of the team is kaput. Carroll reset in 2018 in an attempt to regain an identity. Three years on, this couldn’t look less like a Pete Carroll team.

They are finesse. They aren’t hitting anyone. There’s no attitude.

The way the team has been built has been poor. The scheme calls for pressure with four and yet despite insisting fixing the pass rush was a priority this year, the main moves were to swap Jadeveon Clowney for Benson Mayowa, re-sign an ageing Bruce Irvin and then trade up for a pass rusher who missed the Senior Bowl and combine with a serious injury (and he remains injured).

The way they’ve invested their money and used their picks is confusing and deserves to be questioned, challenged and analysed. It’s no longer good enough to point to the team building work between 2010 and 2013 and give this front office a pass.

Regardless of the result on Thursday night — the Seahawks do not look like a team primed for a long playoff run.

If they lose you could argue they’d be in a crisis — enduring a three-game losing streak and a 1-4 run, with a two-game gap between Seattle and Arizona for the NFC West lead. As noted many times, winning the division once in six years shouldn’t be acceptable with the quarterback advantage Seattle has.

Yet if they do win the game — there shouldn’t be any sugar coating this situation. Even if they finish 11-5 again, it’s abundantly clear that in the coming off-season major decisions need to be taken.

Nothing should be off the table. They need to be ruthless and pro-active.

Carroll isn’t going anywhere as we discussed on Monday. Therefore he should be open to major, significant changes to the coaching staff which include ceding control of the defense to a proper coordinator.

No longer can we see Tre Flowers sitting 15-yards off a receiver despite having safety help. No longer can young players come into the system, drift through their rookie contracts and then depart with minimal development. No longer can the terrible communication and blown assignments continue.

A new, expert staff is required who can teach and install a scheme that is executed with detail and precision.

In terms of personnel, some big calls are required. Is Bobby Wagner worth $18m a year? Be honest about that. You just spent a first round pick on a middle linebacker. Be prepared to move on if needs be. Is Jamal Adams a proper fit in this defense? Is he going to be worth the massive contract he will covet? If the answer is no, you have to be prepared to salvage what you can and trade him.

You’ve got to be realistic about your core. The only players you can say are part of it, with any seriousness, are Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Duane Brown and some of the younger guys like Damien Lewis and potentially Jordyn Brooks. Chris Carson would be on the list but you need to decide how much you’re willing to commit to him.

The rest? It’s all up for debate. Nobody on the defense is playing well enough to justify being safe.

Quandre Diggs needs to go. Quinton Dunbar needs to go. Shaquill Griffin? You can’t pay him big money. Every member of the defensive line should be on borrowed time with the exception of Poona Ford. Carlos Dunlap deserves an opportunity to prove his worth but the reality is he’s 32 in February and has a big cap hit in 2021.

You’re staring at a massive defensive rebuild — in terms of scheme, staff and personnel.

Let’s just be honest about that. It was good that Salk brought up Wagner’s future. The simple fact is, you might just have to move on. Ditto with Adams. If he was a safety you drafted playing this way as an effective blitzer but not a lot else, it would be fine. But you traded three good picks and a player for him. He needs to be a defining player on the defense. A total game-changer. I’m afraid, so far, he simply isn’t. The sacks are nice but the defense still looks appalling, you have to go against your scheme to be aggressive and blitz him and as a coverage man, he’s not an upgrade on Bradley McDougald.

He’s got seven more games to prove his worth or it’s time to bite the bullet and get what you can. You can’t compound the issue by paying him the $15-20m contract he will expect and that you’re duty bound to give him after trading away so much.

Going into the off-season and swapping Ken Norton for Gus Bradley or Dan Quinn, then papering over a few cracks with a few neat-and-tidy free agency moves and a limited draft class, before repeating the same season in 2021 that we’ve seen since 2015 shouldn’t be acceptable.

Short of a turnaround this season so unpredictable it would be staggering, this is the reality of where the Seahawks are. You don’t have to wait until January to have this conversation. We can have it right now.

Some people won’t like it. Avoiding difficult topics is a classic human trait. A lot of people don’t want to recognise issues because you have to confront them. It’s easier to sit back and hope things are actually OK. Or you can undermine those who do want to have the tough conversations. That’s easier than actually having to debate the valid talking points.

Really it comes down to this. If you want a serious football team who actually makes Super Bowls and wins things, we all need to be realistic and honest about where this team is. That includes the football operation, the media and the fans.

At the moment, the Seahawks are a long way away from the Super Bowl. Everything is on Russell Wilson and as we’re seeing, it’s not sustainable. You cannot build your team this way — with a horrific defense and a one-dimensional offense — and hope to succeed for more than the odd flourish here and there.

There are serious weaknesses littered throughout the roster. Many personnel mistakes have been made. The coaching staff needs to be better and fresh ideas are required.

Major surgery is needed. A few band-aids are not enough.

The sooner we all recognise that the better.

If you missed yesterday’s podcast previewing the Arizona game and discussing other topics such as Chris Carson’s future, you can watch it here:

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The importance of Chris Carson & a lead runner in Seattle

Several teams are getting getting a lot out of their running backs this year.

Arizona, Baltimore and New England lead the team rushing statistics in terms of YPG. However, their numbers are boosted by the impact of a running quarterback.

The next four teams on the list — Cleveland, Minnesota, Tennessee and Las Vegas — lean on star-studded running backs to provide a spark.

Where would the 6-3 Browns be without Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt? The entire offense is structured around the pair. Minnesota are experiencing a mid-season revival thanks to the brilliance of their skill position players — in particular Dalvin Cook. Ryan Tannehill has been terrific since taking over as the Titans quarterback but nobody can deny the importance of Derrick Henry in Tennessee. Meanwhile Derek Carr is having a strong season for the Raiders but we can clearly see how much he’s aided by Josh Jacobs.

Great players matter, even at running back.

Anyone who follows football closely would acknowledge there’s a hierarchy of positional importance. Quarterback, left tackle, pass rusher. We all know the most important positions when you’re building a team.

Those positions deserve to be prioritised early in the draft and when a less important position is taken instead — such as a running back — criticism is rarely unfair.

That said, when a GM such as Dave Gettleman takes Saquon Barkley with the #2 pick he does so because he believes, rightly or wrongly, he’s acquiring a special player. Someone who can elevate his team and be a figurehead, even at a position that is less important.

Nobody is taking Barkley in that spot because ‘we’ve got to get a runner’. You’re taking him because you believe the talent is special enough to warrant that decision — and presumably Gettleman wasn’t convinced by Sam Darnold, Josh Allen or Josh Rosen (with hindsight, that’s at least understandable). Gettleman gets his fair share of criticism — some of it justified — but it was long reported the player he badly wanted at quarterback was Justin Herbert (and that he was prepared to wait on drafting a QB as a consequence). Herbert’s decision not to declare in 2019 meant the Giants had to pivot and reach (arguably) for Daniel Jones. Again, we can debate the merits of the idea but Barkley + potentially Herbert wasn’t a bad plan.

While virtually everyone accepts the running back position isn’t of first-tier level importance — we’ve clearly seen teams feel it’s worth investing in. Look at all the big contracts dished out to Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook. We also saw teams invest in the position early in the draft this year — including the Super Bowl champions Kansas City, the LA Rams, Detroit, Green Bay and Indianapolis.

You can always find runners later on, of course. James Robinson in Jacksonville, an UDFA rookie, is currently the fifth leading rusher in the NFL. The four players in front of him though include a first round pick and three second round picks.

Statistically the top five receivers currently are Stefon Diggs (fifth rounder), DeAndre Hopkins (first rounder), DK Metcalf (second rounder), Terry McLaurin (third rounder) and Robby Anderson (UDFA). Davante Adams was the #53 pick in 2014.

J.C. Jackson, an UDFA, leads the league in interceptions. Blake Martinez, a fourth rounder, leads the NFL in tackles. David Bakhtiari, another fourth rounder, just signed a deal to become the highest paid offensive tackle in history.

The top five quarterbacks in terms of yardage include a third rounder and a sixth rounder. I’ll let you guess their names.

Talent is acquired at all positions at every level. The key is to find it.

A special player, even at a lesser position, can still do so much for your team.

We should know better than any other fan base what is possible. Marshawn Lynch was irreplaceable in the formative years of the Pete Carroll era. There’s no way the Seahawks reach the pinnacle without Lynch. He dominated games on the field, dictated how opponents played the Seahawks, defined the culture and connected with the LOB defense.

He was the catalyst for the team coming together.

Go back and watch the Super Bowl victory against Denver and how the Broncos defense sold out trying to stop Marshawn. It’s immensely beneficial when you have a player who dictates game plans. If you have a running back and a quarterback you need to account for — you’ll win a lot of games.

In 2014 I wrote the following about Lynch:

Replacing Lynch will be the toughest thing this franchise has to do in the post-Super Bowl era. You could argue running backs are easy to plug into an offense. How else can you describe 29-year-old Justin Forsett posting 5.4 yards-per-carry in Baltimore as the fourth most productive runner in the NFL? I think for most teams it’s a valid point. But not for Seattle. Not with Lynch.

He is so integral to this teams identity. He is a phenom, a truly unique runner that deserves to be remembered as fondly as any other running back since the turn of the century. His physical style, ability to break tackles, his attitude on the field. These are not easily replaced by just plugging in another player. The moment Seattle loses ‘Beast Mode’ the team will also lose a part of its identity. There’s no getting away from that.

When Lynch departed, the Seahawks predictably suffered. They struggled to find a replacement. They tried plugging in Christine Michael, C.J. Prosise and Eddie Lacy. Thomas Rawls offered a fleeting flourish before disappearing.

By 2017 the running game had totally collapsed and it contributed towards the Seahawks missing the playoffs for the only time in Russell Wilson’s NFL career. Here’s what I wrote in reaction to a loss during that 2017 season:

Lynch and Wilson used to share responsibility for the offense. Now it’s all on the quarterback.

He was brought in to be the star point guard, not a one-man LeBron James show.

The idea of a Seattle running back getting over 100 yards in a game is currently unfathomable. It’d be a major surprise if it happened. A 100-yard rusher? What a luxury. We used to take something like that for granted.

It’s something they don’t have now and they miss the comfort and stability that Lynch brought to the offense. He grounded them. If he wasn’t getting the ball, it felt necessary to get him involved. What draws Seattle back to the running game now? The opportunity to see which of Lacy, Rawls or McKissic can struggle for a short gain? It’s too tempting to turn to Wilson instead.

Yesterday is a good example of the difference between the two versions of the Seahawks. In 2014 you imagine they would’ve come out in the second half featuring Lynch. In 2017 they practically abandoned the running backs and put the game on Russell Wilson, trying to chase the big play.

They badly need some balance and some help for the quarterback.

The situation isn’t quite as dramatic as that today. Russell Wilson has grown into an even better player than he was three years ago. He’s already shown he can carry this team to wins — even if he’s folded under that weight of expectation in the last two weeks. You would never actively desire to take the ball out of his hands — it’s more a case of further supporting him and providing Wilson with another dynamic skill player for the arsenal.

I think there’s something to be said for reading through those words from 2017 though.

“They practically abandoned the running backs and put the game on Russell Wilson, trying to chase the big play.”

That’s what we’re seeing now. The Seahawks don’t trust their cobbled together combo of Alex Collins, Deejay Dallas and Travis Homer to lead the rushing attack. There’s no pressure to focus the running game — either from the offensive coordinator or the quarterback. Both Brian Schottenheimer and Russell Wilson probably think, rightly, this is all on #3 — regardless of the situation the Seahawks find themselves in.

Paired with the ugly defensive performances, Wilson is chasing the big play far too often. He’s trying to make things happen that aren’t there. At his best, he protects the football better than any QB in the league. In the three losses this year, he’s looked like the worst version of Jay Cutler.

We’ve never seen Wilson like this. There are seven regular season games left and he’s already on the brink of setting a career record for interceptions.

So much of it is down to the rank bad defense piling pressure on the offense to score +30 a game. Even when they don’t need +30 — it’s difficult to shake the feeling when that’s what you’ve been seeing week after week.

It also feels, somewhat, like Wilson’s shaky form has coincided with the absence of Seattle’s top two running backs — including RB1.

Chris Carson is by far the best running back Seattle has had since Lynch. While he lacks the culture-building connecting qualities that were exclusive and unique to Marshawn, he carries some of the physicality and skill and he helps bring needed balance to the offense.

‘Balance’ sometimes gets construed as an ugly word by the anti-run crowd. I’d argue the Seahawks were well balanced early in the season when Wilson looked set to streak away with the MVP award. He was the focal point but the run complemented what he was doing. Carson is also suitably talented that he was an asset on hot routes and as a receiver in general.

Seattle’s offense just doesn’t look the same without Carson. We saw that at the end of last season too. The Seahawks — and Wilson — are simply better with a really good running back. That was the case with Lynch and now it’s the situation with Carson.

He’s as important as D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. They are a fantastic trio.

His inability to get back on the field, especially in a vital contract year, has to be concerning.

Carson’s inability to stay healthy isn’t just a short term concern either. We’ve seen, again, how the offense is impacted when he isn’t there. They can’t afford to pay him mega money with his injury record. Yet they can’t really afford to lose him either when his contract expires in a few months. They can’t bank on Rashaad Penny leading the way along with Dallas or Homer as a #2. That won’t cut it.

It creates a dilemma for the off-season. The Seahawks practically have to risk losing him to allow him to set his market. Then, due to the injuries, they might get him back at a reasonable price. Alternatively, they could lose him and find themselves in a bind.

The other option is to pay him early — but unless he’s feeling particularly reasonable, that will be tricky and/or expensive.

The situation could’ve been aided if they’d tapped into a strong running back class early in the draft this year. I understand why they didn’t — a section of the fan base would’ve gone apoplectic if they’d used a second high pick in three years on a runner. Yet the insurance a Clyde Edwards-Helaire or D’Andre Swift could’ve provided (the top two runners drafted) would’ve been valuable. Imagine either of those two starting right now, at a fraction of the salary Carlos Hyde is on. The Seahawks would also be in a much better position next year in terms of negotiating with Carson, knowing they had a talented fall back if he departs.

I’m not sure drafting another linebacker instead was better value. The Jordyn Brooks pick is just as much of a luxury. At the end of the day, making life as easy as possible for Russell Wilson is of vital importance. More so than setting the table for life beyond K.J. Wright.

The late first and second round has turned into a good draft range for running backs. With the positional value decreasing, good players tend to last into that range. Edwards-Helaire and Swift are perfect examples this year. In previous years we’ve seen Chubb, Henry, Cook, Ronald Jones and Miles Sanders go in that range too. For a team that does place value on the position, it’s frustrating that the one time they tapped into it in the top-50, they came away with Rashaad Penny (who has had injuries and only flashed in spurts).

Again, there would’ve been uproar had the Seahawks spent another high pick on a runner. I’m not sure many would be complaining if one of the names listed in the previous paragraph were filling the void left by Carson currently.

One way or another, they’re probably going to have to find a way to keep Carson. Otherwise they run the risk of trying to avoid a repeat of the Eddie Lacy fiasco.

If we didn’t appreciate it fully before — the 2020 season has shown this team needs a lead runner.

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Change is probably needed but it isn’t coming

The expression on Pete Carroll’s face here speaks volumes

It feels like we’re witnessing the dying embers of a great era. The final few weeks of an exciting, legendary run that needs to come to an end for everyone’s sakes.

Except, at the same time, we aren’t.

The Seahawks under Pete Carroll have lost their way.

Their identity is shot. They want to play ‘complete circle’ football and yet they’ve stumbled into a one-man-quarterback-band.

The attitude is long gone. The Seahawks don’t play with a chip on their shoulder any more. Neither do they play with a physical edge to strike fear into opponents.

For the last three years they’ve tried to rebuild the team and frankly they’ve done a bad job. The roster construction has left them with a historically poor defense. They’ve squandered money and high picks, compromising their ability to make further improvements in the coming years.

The coaching staff isn’t inspiring any confidence. Carroll’s speciality is supposed to be defense but look at the results. Most of the young players aren’t being developed. The ideas and game planning leaves a lot to be desired. While other staff’s do less with more — the Seahawks are left surprised when opponents throw a lot against their league-worst passing defense.

On Sunday the players were flat and looked demoralised. Even Carroll’s body language told a story. He looked like a man struggling to comprehend what he was seeing — with no obvious solutions to fix the problems.

The game itself was a joyless experience. Suddenly the offense looks as broken as the defense. For those that are quick to say yesterday isn’t an example of the offense being impacted by the poor play of the defense — remember that they gave up 17 points and about 240 yards in the opening three drives. Right from the off the Seahawks were chasing the game. Sure, things tightened in the second half. Yet the offense is having to play with a mentality of keeping up at best and overcompensating at worst.

That’s not to absolve the offense of criticism. They need to be better. Russell Wilson cannot make the ridiculous, indefensible mistakes he is making. Nobody should wash away the turnovers and staggering errors he is forcing.

Yet it’s a further example of how everything is infected now. A different kind of circle is being created — with only special teams, so far, resisting the urge to join in. Clearly the ‘hope Wilson can cure a thousand ills’ approach was unsustainable. Thus, the walls are crumbling around the 2020 season.

No longer can the team clutch to a NFC West lead like a comfort blanket. Now they’re third in the division, clinging on to the seventh seed in the NFC.

They face a win-or-bust game against the Cardinals. Lose that one and their playoff hopes could begin to evaporate — even with the weakest schedule in the NFL.

Cast an eye towards the rest of the division. Kliff Kingsbury, Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan have picked up teams who, initially, were among the worst one or two in the sport.

McVay and Shanahan have built Super Bowl teams since, despite only being able to call upon Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. Kingsbury has turned the Cardinals from the team picking first overall to a NFC West contender in a season and a half.

Meanwhile the Seahawks flounder — stuck in an annual rut of being unable to win the division despite their clear quarterback advantage. They’ve won the NFC West once in five years and that run increasingly looks like it will extend to six.

That’s not good enough.

They are also 1-5 in their last six games against the Rams (and a missed field goal from 0-6) and 1-5 in their last six NFC West games.

All good things come to an end and sadly, it’s starting to look a lot like the Carroll era should come to an end. New blood, new ideas and a fresh start is attractive.

It was a wonderful run but as with anything, it can’t go on forever. The Bill Belichick’s and Mike Tomlin’s are the exception not the rule.

The inevitable response, especially from some sections of the media, will be to point to Carroll’s record and familiarity and question the sanity of anyone making such claims. A lot of people don’t want to consider this topic. It’s a step too far. Practically a form of blasphemy. Carroll is immensely popular and likeable and rightly so. The Seahawks without him? Unthinkable.

Yet former glories aren’t enough to justify continuing into the future.

Fear of change can’t compromise decision making. Moving on would be a risk, sure. Teams do it all the time though. The challenge is to get the replacement appointment right to make it the correct call — not avoid making the decision due to anxiety that the grass might not be greener on the other side.

A 6-3 record also shouldn’t hide the truth. Russell Wilson is sufficiently good enough to maintain a base level of wins every year. You could argue he’s good enough to secure a playoff spot most if not all years. You are not doing a good job by achieving the bare minimum with this quarterback.

All teams endure rough patches. The Seahawks are 1-3 in the first real test on their schedule. The thing is, everything that is unfolding has been predictable. The off-season fears are coming true. The problems experienced today are not solely down to game-planning mistakes, bad interceptions or a decision not to go for it on fourth and inches at midfield.

This is about the construction of the roster from 2018 onwards. This is the way they’ve used their picks and cap space. The players they’ve chosen to retain at great cost and the players they’ve moved on. The inability to address stated priorities. The trades they’ve made. The way certain players have failed to be developed. The inability to make the most of having the best quarterback in the division. The coaches they’ve appointed. The failure to install a vision and philosophy correctly. The way they’ve struggled to capture a physical edge despite craving it so much. The dejected, sad looking body language the players are starting to show. The continued focus on competition and competing — yet with protected individuals who, when they underachieve — are allowed to continue without consequence.

As Colin Cowherd noted today — without Wilson, are the Seahawks even capable of winning a game?

It’s starting to feel like it’s time. The current regime, which includes John Schneider, doesn’t seem capable of solving the riddles of roster construction and the current staff don’t seem capable of elevating what they’re left with.

Yet the reality is nothing is going to change.

Jody Allen isn’t firing Pete Carroll. She’s just given him a five-year extension. The Seahawks are in an ownership holding pattern and no major changes to the football infrastructure will occur until a buyer is found. Per reports, that could take at least three years.

So for at least the next three years, and it could easily be more, nothing is going to change.

That’s the most serious problem for this franchise. There’s no true leadership from the very top. Power and control appears to be ceded or passed on to Carroll and Schneider — the football people. There doesn’t appear to be any accountability.

That’s not a good place to be. Especially when things are not going right and you’re just carrying on until someone else takes over to make the big call you needed to make years earlier.

Previously I thought continuity during this period was necessary. Now my perspective has changed. The Seahawks can’t move on from Carroll but increasingly it looks like they need to. It’s becoming a marriage of ownership convenience rather the right thing for the product on the field.

It’s starting to feel like we’re all going to have to just get through this when really, we should be invigorated by the best years of Russell Wilson and should be dreaming of Championship opportunities.

So what’s the answer?

We can all debate the short term merits of firing the defensive coordinator (which isn’t going to happen on a short week) or begging Kris Richard to come back and help out. The reality is this season is being reduced to ‘hope for the best’. You’re going to hear the old adage that 20 years ago fans could only dream of the playoffs, so you should just be satisfied that you’ve got that morsel to digest. Frankly, that’s all you’re going to get.

Long term — as in the off-season — is where the serious decisions need to be made.

Carroll requires a specialist, experienced staff from now on. He needs to bring in a defensive coordinator to run the defense outright and he needs to empower that coordinator to bring in his own people to fill out the staff. Carroll should be prepared to take a backseat to focus on being the figurehead at the top of the table. The days of former USC colleagues and Carroll tree protégés need to be a thing of the past.

They also need to make difficult choices in terms of personnel. Your top earners need to be able to justify their contracts. Nothing should be off the table. The status quo can’t just continue year after year. Things need shaking up and they need to re-establish who are the players they can truly classify as the core.

They need to humble themselves and stop overthinking the draft and free agency. If you have a big glaring need for a pass rusher — go and get one. Don’t squander millions dishing out RFA contracts to Branden Jackson and Joey Hunt, spend $7m on a tight end who’s been actively contemplating retirement and then decide $3m on Benson Mayowa will do after all.

This front office gets a lot of praise. It’s time for that to stop and a sense of pressure and urgency needs to be applied instead. Sometimes it’s OK to be predictable — doing things like fixing your needs in free agency then making a draft pick that is recognised as logical.

They need to do a detailed and thorough review that looks at how they came to put together the D-line that they did for 2020, in part because they didn’t like the value, only to trade the house for a blitzing safety who has been hurt all year and is now making business decisions.

And if they were inclined to make a massive trade like this, why not do it for Jalen Ramsey instead — given the way his mere presence was enough to take out Seattle’s top skill player on Sunday? When will Jamal Adams ever do that to an opponent?

If asked, no doubt Carroll and Schneider will go to great lengths to say everything is discussed and analysed and reviewed. To what extent though? Do they have to go, cap in hand, to the current owner and explain their decision making process at the end of each season? Are they challenged from the top?

You can say this talk is premature but what’s the point in waiting to discuss what seems obvious? This needs to be embraced and something done about it. The change has to come from within, with the existing football structure, because Carroll isn’t going anywhere. We cannot be sat here in 12 months talking about the same things yet again.

For now we look ahead to Thursday and hope for a win. We hope things will flip and suddenly, from nowhere, this team will grow into something nobody can predict based on their last two performances.

I’m desperate to be proven wrong. I want to eat the words in this article. Unfortunately though, topics like this are going to need to be taken seriously from now on. We have to be prepared to have these uncomfortable discussions.

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Instant reaction: The Seahawks season is crumbling

Seattle’s season is collapsing before our eyes. They look like a broken shell of a team. There’s no spark, no intensity, no fight.

The Seahawks came into this game trying to calm the masses after the Buffalo beating by pointing to the NFC West standings.

Tonight Seattle is third in the division.

Sadly, Pete Carroll doesn’t seem to have the answers and it’s increasingly hard to have any faith in his ability to rescue this sinking ship.

No doubt some people will point to the fact Seattle are still 6-3 as some kind of reassuring counterpoint.

If you feel that way, you’re kidding yourself. You are absolutely kidding yourself.

There was so much wrong with this game. The usual defensive chaos. The rapidly declining offense. Russell Wilson looks spent, his MVP hopes shattered, under the weight of having to carry this team. The inability to get their best offensive skill player involved happened for the second time in a matter of weeks.

Out-coached and out-played again.

Carroll was hailed as cool and inspiring on 710 ESPN last week for signing a new contract. Yet he is overseeing the collapse of the season.

Between them, Carroll and John Schneider have done an incredibly poor job constructing and developing this roster since the reset in 2018. Yet nobody holds them to account — either in ownership (which is in flux) or an overly-friendly media.

They have put together what could easily be the worst defense in over 100 years of NFL history.

There are no answers, no solutions.

Carroll stands up at the podium every week and says things have to get better. Things aren’t getting better, Pete.

Last week was a total embarrassment and this felt like a continuation.

The only glimmer of hope was the offense but look at it now. It’s absolutely shattered with Wilson giving the ball away 10 times in the three losses.

The Seahawks are now 1-5 against the Rams in the last six and it’d be 0-6 but for a missed field goal.

They get out-coached every time.

Before the bye they were able to beat Atlanta, New England, Dallas, Miami and Minnesota. Three of those teams are dreadful and they relied on nailbiting victories. The Dolphins were yet to truly find their flow and the Vikings blew it.

Since then, they are 1-3. The only win was against the MASH unit that is the San Francisco 49ers.

Everyone acknowledged this was the meat of the season for the Seahawks. The real test. We’d find out a lot about this team during this run.

They have a losing, 1-3 record.

Against proper teams they are being found out. They are a pretender. They can barely function.

It was all so predictable.

We talked about it throughout the off-season. The way they went about building this defense was a shambles.

Despite all the anger and abuse directed at this blog, what exactly was unjust?

They failed to fix the pass rush and made it worse. Thus, they can’t play their scheme. They wasted $50m in free agency. They used their top draft pick on an unnecessary linebacker and their second on an injured pass rusher.

The Jamal Adams trade was a desperate attempt to add a player of note right before the season. The Seahawks have no idea what to do with him other than have him blitz. They traded the house for a blitzing safety.

Players are not being developed or showing progression. Only Poona Ford is elevating his play in 2020.

The defensive plan, week-to-week, is confounding and jumbled. They haven’t established one thing they can hang their hat on.

So many other coaches do less with more. Look at the way Kyle Shanahan is battling with practically a full starting 22 on IR. He took Jimmy Garoppolo to a Super Bowl. Sean McVay inherited a consistently weak Rams team with a floundering #1 pick quarterback and has made them a force (and they too have been to a Super Bowl). It’s taken Kliff Kingsbury a season and a half to transform Arizona from the worst team in the league to an exciting NFC West contender.

The Seahawks aren’t a picture of health at the moment but they have big names on their defense and can’t come up with any solutions.

The whole philosophy of this team is supposed to be to create a complete circle. They’ve taken a shotgun to their identity, with bad team building, and now there’s a tsunami of chaos driving towards the shore.

Carroll is supposed to be a defensive minded Head Coach with a reputation as one of the best in the league. He is the architect of the Legion of Boom era.

Now he’s parenting the ‘Region of Room’. He’s in danger of ruining his legacy by creating a unit as bad as the 2013 Seahawks were good.

Carroll deserves to feel pressure and it will ramp up after this latest loss. The fans are turning now. Every tweet posted by the Seahawks media team is accompanied by a flurry of tweets complaining about the defense or defensive coaches.

Serious, proper questions must be asked by the media, who need to step up to the plate for once and not shirk their responsibility.

And what must Wilson be thinking? He’s been delivered the ultimate hospital pass.

His MVP hopes are up in flames. He is making mistakes he has never made in his career. He is pressing and his play has fallen off a cliff. The offense suddenly looks totally dreadful. As bad as it looked at the end of last season as soon as the running backs got hurt.

Do you think this is on him? Do you think suddenly, he’s decided he fancies becoming a turnover machine? That he doesn’t want to be the prolific saviour?

Of course not. It’s no coincidence. He’s under immense pressure to score, score, score. He has the weight of 11 defensive players resting on his shoulders. It’s impacting him so much that suddenly he is making bonehead mistakes that would make Mark Sanchez blush.

His first interception today, where he had a mile of space in front of him to run for a first down. What on earth was that? When has he ever done anything like that?

That isn’t Wilson. He doesn’t do stuff like that.

He’s also seeing ghosts. He’s feeling pressure when it isn’t there. Teams are getting in his head.

That’s not to absolve him of blame. He’s playing stupid, reckless football and it’s costing the team as much as the wretched defense.

And what about the plan, as with the Arizona loss, that involved not having any idea how to get your best skill player involved?

D.K. Metcalf is too good to ignore. How the hell do they justify not involving him at all? That’s ridiculous and it’s happened twice now.

The offense and in particular Wilson don’t get a pass.

But can you blame him/them with the defense broken? You know as well as I do that it would be different with a competent defense and Wilson playing smart football.

The wheels are coming off the season.

It’s not just the bad play of the offense and defense. The team looks disorganised, passive and going through the motions. The Seahawks are low energy. There’s no intensity or discipline. They just look rubbish.

What hope is there for a strong playoff run? If they even make the post-season it won’t last long.

Be honest with yourself. They’re broken.

Unfortunately, I’m starting to think the players sense this too.

A few years ago it was revealed that some veteran players had started to refer to the Seahawks as ‘the Titanic’.

The boat is sinking. Eventually they’ll be staring at an off-season where there are more questions than ever, with hardly any draft picks or money to spend.

Optimism and hope is being drained away, bit by bit.

This is no longer a young, hungry, vibrant group that is pissed off for greatness.

It’s a stale, quarterback-dependant unit that is expensive, slow, lacking any kind of attitude or physicality and just drifting along to a sufficiently disappointing conclusion.

The Seahawks are facing a make or break weekend

I tried to do it.

I switched on the tape. I fully intended to watch the Buffalo game for a second time.

In part I was intrigued by Brock Huard revealing on 710 ESPN this morning that they gave up an entire drive without hitting anyone. Plus, it was suggested there was a drive consisting of five consecutive first downs (before the streak was ruthlessly broken by the end zone).

I wanted to see if it was true.

I couldn’t do it. I started watching and then stopped. Once was enough.

The defense is completely broken.

The “scheme”, which now needs to be written with quote marks for the rest of the season, is all over the place. There’s very little physicality or fear factor. Everything seems so passive — even for a defense that is suddenly among the heaviest blitzers in the NFL.

Execution, attitude, discipline, understanding — all missing.

It’s broken. As the title says — this is a make or break week going into the Rams game. This cannot continue. A serious, genuine improvement needs to happen right now. There cannot be another game like the one on Sunday.

What happened in Buffalo should never have been possible in the first place.

How has it got to this point? How has a Pete Carroll led Seahawks franchise produced a unit that is hurtling towards being statistically one of the worst ever — in over 100 years of NFL history?

The problems started with the off-season. The roster construction was incomprehensible. This was supposed to be the year to take the next step — with resources in the way of cap space and draft picks to make it happen.

I won’t write out the long list of issues again — but if you missed it in September, here’s the breakdown.

Failing to address glaring problems with the defense (and in some cases compounding issues) forced them to do things they’ve never done before.

They started the season blitzing to mask their pass rush deficiencies. They knew they had to manufacture pressure because, unsurprisingly, Benson Mayowa bookending L.J. Collier wasn’t good enough. In the first two weeks they blitzed 36.4% of the time.

Yet the tactic failed to create sacks and left the second level exposed — with the Seahawks leading the league in explosive plays conceded.

Time for a rethink.

By week four they changed course. They decided to be conservative. They were sitting in zone and trying to make teams take what was on offer. It worked against the Dolphins but was exposed against the Vikings and Cardinals. By week seven, their blitz percentage had dropped by a significant 10%. They were suffering death by a thousand cuts.

Time for another rethink.

In the last two games they’ve pretty much flip-flopped between the two. They’re caught between an aggressive, blitzing approach to manufacture pressure and a passive system that — as we saw in Buffalo — is susceptible to giving up easy yards and barely laying a finger on the opponent.

Then when they switch to blitzing — it takes one well-timed screen pass to make the whole thing fall like a pack of cards.

Remember the days when Seattle went after opponents? They’d hit you in the mouth and let you know about it after. They were brash, hungry, devastating and organised.

The 2020 defense is a mess and it’s getting worse not better. The Seahawks, who for years have had a set way of playing, are now scrambling around trying to figure out what works game-to-game. They’re caught between the two extremes of bringing extra rushers and playing soft in coverage.

They’re going to smash the record for passing yards conceded per game:

2020 Seahawks 362.1
2020 Falcons 310.3
2011 Packers 299.8
2015 Giants 298.9
2012 Buccaneers 297.4

They’re also going to shatter the record for the all-time worst passing defense in terms of yards conceded — by a thousand yards. The record is 4796 and the Seahawks are on a pace for 5794.

As someone pointed out on social media, the Legion of Boom have become the Region of Room.

There’s simply no excuse for this. This is a team with Bobby Wagner, Jamal Adams, K.J. Wright, Jarran Reed, Carlos Dunlap and Quandre Diggs. They’ve used first round picks in the last two years on L.J. Collier and Jordyn Brooks. They’ve paid, traded for or picked these players. Some are big names and established pro’s.

Despite all of the legitimate concerns voiced throughout the off-season, there are still enough established players on this defense to cobble together a solid plan. They can at least be average rather than abject.

That’s why it’s only fair that serious questions are asked of Pete Carroll and his defensive coordinator. It is their duty and their responsibility to find solutions.

And it’s just not happening.

The cornerback situation is less than ideal. Quinton Dunbar was all over the place in Buffalo and Tre Flowers has limitations. All teams have injuries though and this is a scheme, supposedly, that allows you an opportunity to not have to line-up elite cover corners on the outside.

Was there no way to come up with a scheme or system to mask that weakness and elevate the key players you did have available?

Does Jamal Adams fit this defense? The player they traded so much for? And if he does, why has he looked so average aside from his explosive debut in Atlanta?

The game against the Niners was held up as a sign of progress and yet, as we now know, Jimmy Garoppolo was clearly not right and the 49ers are in the middle of an injury crisis. Nick Mullens, who was dreadful against Green Bay in the following game, delivered 20 points, 238 yards and two touchdown passes in one quarter once he replaced Garoppolo.

Week after week, Pete Carroll comes to the podium and insists things will get better. He talked of the Buffalo performance being unrecognisable — yet we’ve already seen half a season of this. He says after the game they didn’t expect Buffalo to abandon the run. Really? You didn’t expect the Bills to attack your weakness with their strength?

It’s blatantly clear that the defense needs new leadership and that Ken Norton Jr is simply holding on at this stage. The Seahawks can’t afford to ‘hope for the best’ here.

The Rams game has to be the final straw. If they fall to 1-3 since the bye with the defense struggling once again, there needs to be some action.

The Ravens fired offensive coordinator Cam Cameron when they were 9-4 in 2012 and they went on to win the Super Bowl with Joe Flacco stunningly being the main reason why. If the Ravens had stood-pat and reassured themselves over a winning record, they probably would’ve missed out on that Championship.

Nobody wants to be negative about Ken Norton Jr — a man who rightly commands respect and love in Seattle. Eventually though, something has to be done. This can’t keep going on. Even if it merely means promoting someone already on the staff — there has to be some kind of accountability.

Meanwhile, sections of the Seattle media skirt around the big topics. On 710 ESPN yesterday morning — rather than initiate a relevant discussion about the problems at hand, we instead heard a radio host telling Carroll how ‘inspired’ he is that Carroll found his calling as a football coach.

It feels like we’re in bizarro world sometimes. That same radio host was yelling at people on social media today — and yelling again on the radio about fans wanting a pound of flesh (that he wasn’t going to deliver), while accusing some fans of treating Carroll ‘like he’s Adam Gase’.

It’s not that at all. I think some fans, understandably, are concerned and baffled by what’s going on with the defense. They want a bit more pushing and probing when Carroll is interviewed, rather than uncomfortable fawning.

Meanwhile on Field Gulls yesterday, somebody posted an article titled ‘Seahawks fixed their pass rush’. I don’t know if that was simply an attempt to draw people in but the reality is they blitzed 60.4% of the time against Buffalo and gave up 44 points — the most in 10 years of the Carroll era. That is not a fixed pass rush. It’s manufactured pressure that delivered four sacks but also 19/24 passing for 254 yards and two touchdowns for the offense.

The counter argument is, predictably, the Seahawks are 6-2. They are first in the NFC West. These conversations are unnecessarily negative and we should be grateful that the Seahawks aren’t the Jets or the Jaguars.

It’s such a tepid counter. We’re witnessing one of the all-time great quarterback careers. This is a franchise that has raised expectations to where you can dream about Championships. That is the goal — every year — and it’s not unrealistic with Russell Wilson behind center.

Yet since their last Super Bowl appearance five years ago — the Seahawks have been stuck in a rut. They make the playoffs but swiftly make their exit. In the last five years they’ve won the NFC West once. They’ve not sniffed a NFC Championship game. In that same period, the 49ers and Rams have both been to the Super Bowl and the Cardinals came within a game of it.

Isn’t it right to wonder how the coaches in San Francisco and LA elevated teams led by Jimmy Garoppolo and Jared Goff to the Super Bowl, yet Seattle’s coaches aren’t able to do the same with Russell Wilson?

When you watch this defense you can’t help but feel history is going to repeat. They were 6-2 last year and 6-2-1 in 2016.

The Colts, Browns, Bears and Raiders are one win behind the Seahawks. A 6-2 record doesn’t mean anything. It’s not an adequate counter to any of the issues raised regarding the defense. It doesn’t justify any decision made during the off-season or since. Wins against the Falcons, Patriots, Cowboys, Dolphins, Vikings and Niners are not any indication of contender status — especially if they end up paired with losses to the Cardinals, Bills and Rams.

Wilson is the reason they’re 6-2. He’s helped deliver 274 points — second only to the Chiefs (286). Without him playing at a MVP level, where would they be? Seattle’s net points differential is +31. Kansas City’s is +103.

We can also see the way the defense is increasing the pressure on Wilson. He has seven turnovers in the two defeats so far. He’s turning the ball over at a faster rate than at any point in his career. He’s pressing because he has to — and teams are coming after him now because they know he’s the only way for Seattle to win.

Essentially the defense is starting to infect the offense too.

If the Seahawks lose on Sunday against an opponent they consistently struggle with, they’ll be on a 1-3 run with the only victory coming against the lowly Niners. If the defense struggles in a defeat, the growing concern that is starting to build will multiply.

This is a huge game — arguably the biggest regular season game in the second half of the Carroll era. You might think it’s a bit over the top to say they need to salvage the season. I don’t. You can’t expect to have realistic Super Bowl ambitions on a 1-3 run when you’re fielding one of the worst defenses in NFL history.

They have to win. They have to play better. They have to find a way to make this defense function.

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Monday notes: difficult topics after Seattle’s Buffalo beat-down

Does Jamal Adams fit in Seattle’s defense?

The Jamal Adams trade is already concerning

The Seahawks are basically using him as a pass rushing linebacker, blitzing to try and manufacture pressure they otherwise can’t create.

He’s never been a particularly good zone coverage defender. He’s always been better playing downhill and aggressive.

We’re seeing when he does sit in zone, there are issues. When he blitzes they’re often leaving Quandre Diggs isolated (and we can all see the results) or they’re forcing themselves to play nickel with a ‘designated rusher’ rather than an extra coverage man.

The Seahawks scheme has always worked best when they can rush with four and let everyone in the second level do their jobs.

Kam Chancellor had only two career sacks. He rarely blitzed.

Suddenly, in part because they did a bad job addressing the pass rush this year and in part because of who Adams is, they’re having to switch everything up to facilitate him and prop up the D-line.

When he played in a 3-4 in New York it worked a treat. You have four linebackers on the field in base to cover the second level and you just have more flexibility if you want to rush an aggressive safety. The Todd Bowles and Gregg Williams schemes are designed to take risks, to blitz creatively and bring a lot of pressure. It wasn’t just Adams — it was exactly the same with Deone Buchanan in Arizona.

Seattle’s defense simply isn’t built that way.

When you trade two first round picks, a third and a good veteran for a player — you expect clarity on role, you expect a good fit and you expect a high level of performance immediately.

It’s difficult to watch the way Minkah Fitzpatrick is playing in Pittsburgh. He’s acting as their eraser. He has six interceptions in just over a season with the Steelers and two defensive touchdowns.

The Seahawks couldn’t compete with Pittsburgh in trade talks. The Steelers, at the time, were dangling what looked like a top-10 pick a year ago. Yet the cost was cheaper and the results far better.

With the price tag Seattle paid for Adams, expectations are very high. I’m not convinced he suits their scheme and I’m not sure they know how to best use him. I’m struggling to see how the Seahawks are noticeably better with him in the lineup versus Bradley McDougald. It’s starting to feel a bit like Percy Harvin all over again. They acquire a player who is clearly very talented but doesn’t necessarily fit and they can’t work out the best way to utilize him.

I can’t be the only person wondering if the Seahawks can justify paying him a massive contract in the off-season. As we saw with Laremy Tunsil and Jalen Ramsey — when you trade the house for players without an oven-ready contract extension ready to go, you end up getting fleeced. Tunsil and Ramsey smashed records for annual salary and guarantees at their respective positions. They were given a blank cheque the moment the trades were ratified.

Adams is in the exact same boat. Budda Baker is the highest paid safety on $15m a year. It’s not unrealistic that the Seahawks are facing a $17-18m commitment per year — on top of the same amount they’re already paying Bobby Wagner.

I don’t think you can justify that.

The next eight games are huge for both the Seahawks and Adams. They need to determine whether this is a long term arrangement or not. Either that or Carroll needs to cede control of the defense in the off-season and turn things over to an experienced schemer who can build the unit around Adams.

New coaches are needed from the outside

Seattle’s defense is getting worse year after year.

It’s always been a unit that relies on talent. Nobody could look at their scheme even in the LOB days and admire its complexity or the way it challenges opponents. It’s always been fairly straight forward. In the 2011-2014 period, Seattle had an obscene number of world class players with BAMF attitudes to make it virtually unstoppable.

Now there isn’t a cornerback on the roster you can hang your hat on (including Shaquill Griffin). The safeties are not living up to expectations. The D-line can’t generate pressure with four and Bobby Wagner has turned into a shadow of his former self.

At a time like this — when your backs are against the wall and you’re getting hammered by opponents and critics alike — you need your coaches to step forward. They need to come up with solutions.

We’re eight weeks into the season now and all Pete Carroll keeps saying is he believes things will get better. These are just shallow, meaningless words at this stage.

It seems clearer by the week the Seahawks aren’t capable of turning a historically bad unit into something passable.

Yet as flawed as the defensive roster is — this is still a team with some big name, expensive players. To not come up with any solutions half way through a season isn’t acceptable.

The Bills giving up on the running game should be the final straw. Have you ever witnessed a team so blatantly jab a finger at a defensive weakness like that?

It had to be humiliating for Carroll. One of his big mantras is that first and foremost you have to stop the run. Now opponents aren’t even bothering running. He’s helped create a defense that takes away the running game for all the wrong reasons.

This will be a very painful experience for Seattle’s Head Coach. Fresh off the news that he’s been given a contract extension until 2025, he also needs to be honest about this situation.

The Seahawks coaching staff is littered with old friends from USC and family members and it’s not working for the defense.

Carroll needs to bite the bullet. He is a fine Head Coach with a superb track record. He needs to become the figurehead, the leader, the culture setter. And he needs to employ someone with experience to run the defense.

That doesn’t mean going back to Dan Quinn or Gus Bradley. The defenses in Atlanta and Los Angeles are also terrible. It means employing an outsider to come in and sort things out.

It needs to be someone with ambitions of being a Head Coach in the future. Someone who can come in, rescue Seattle’s defense and deliver a fresh vision and new ideas.

It needs to be someone who can test opponents with clever scheming, week-to-week game-planning and can get the best out of Seattle’s supposed stars.

The Seahawks have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and it’s going to squander the best years of Russell Wilson without making some difficult decisions.

Plenty of coaches lead from the top and employ specialist coordinators to run the offense, defense and special teams. John Harbaugh is a good example. That has to be a path Carroll considers in the off-season.

Ken Norton Jr still needs to go, this week (but he won’t)

I think Carroll has too much respect for the man. Clearly the players think the world of him.

It’s just not working though.

A change is required to shake things up. They need someone with a fresh perspective making the calls and being the key decision maker in the meeting room.

Carroll is protecting Norton and taking a portion of the blame — and rightly so. It’s his defense too. Yet he’s not going anywhere and things simply aren’t improving.

Forget Dan Quinn. He needs to repair his reputation and coming to Seattle to try and fix this mess in-season isn’t the way to do it.

It’ll probably need to be someone from within the staff already — but really, what have you got to lose?

Somebody needs to be held to account for this defensive shambles. Ownership clearly isn’t going to do it. The media aren’t going to do it. Therefore Carroll has to.

The Ravens fired offensive coordinator Cam Cameron in 2010. They were 9-4 but the offense was struggling. Baltimore won the Super Bowl that year.

Sometimes change is just necessary.

A record-setting example

The Seahawks’ defense is set to smash the record for passing yards conceded per game:

2020 Seahawks 362.1
2020 Falcons 310.3
2011 Packers 299.8
2015 Giants 298.9
2012 Buccaneers 297.4

Look at the difference between Seattle this year and the rest — then note who’s second (for the Dan Quinn truthers).

They’re also going to shatter the record for the all-time worst passing defense in terms of yards conceded — by a thousand yards. The record is 4796 and the Seahawks are on a pace for 5794.

The Seahawks wasted money on tight ends

Greg Olsen is earning $7m this season. He currently has 171 yards and one touchdown. He’s on pace for 342 yards and a couple of scores. Meanwhile Jacob Hollister, on a $3.2m second round tender contract, has 11 catches for 98 yards and one touchdown.

Given the flaws elsewhere on the roster, the use of over $10m on these two players warrants a serious challenge.

It’s time to get real

Let’s have a close look at the reality of Seattle’s 6-2 record.

Only one of those victories — against Miami — was against a reasonable opponent. The other wins were against Atlanta, New England, Dallas, Minnesota and a banged up 49ers outfit.

The New England, Dallas and Minnesota games could’ve easily be losses.

In the toughest stretch of the season, they’re currently 1-2. Next up are the Rams, who the Seahawks are 1-4 against in the last five outings.

They’ve failed to get any angle on the Sean McVay offense. In the last five games between the teams, LA has scored 42, 33, 36, 29 and 28 points.

Here’s the total offensive yardage conceded in each game:

2017 (H) — 352
2018 (A) — 468
2018 (H) — 456
2019 (H) — 477
2019 (A) — 455

Falling to 6-3 overall and 1-3 in this grown-up portion of the schedule is a very real threat.

This feels like a make or break game next weekend. The Seahawks need to prove they aren’t pretenders.

If you missed our ‘pulling no punches’ instant reaction podcast discussing the Buffalo game, check it out here:

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