This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…
See a need? Fill a need.
In last week’s update we discussed how little cap room the Seahawks have available and that the period to come would be a litmus test for their determination to dramatically improve the team:
“If the Seahawks are determined to improve in a big way this offseason, they will need to be more aggressive.
That means restructuring players, cutting players you otherwise might not, or having a hard conversation with a player you have invested heavily in, like Jamal Adams.
It also means being aggressive with your salary cap strategy in regards to new contracts. They can do what other teams do, acquire a big piece that helps them tremendously with very little cap room available and just manage the cap to make it work.”
The Seahawks have impressively answered the call early in the off-season in order to push their roster forward in a more competitive fashion.
Pete Carroll says they need to close the talent gap with San Francisco, particularly with regard to having a defensive line difference-maker? Welcome to Seattle, Dre’Mont Jones.
They need more effective depth on the line? Come back home where you belong, Jarran Reed.
They have questions in the defensive backfield and want to run more three safety sets? A super-versatile player who could hedge Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs and even plug in at nickel if needed would be terrific. If he has been a defensive leader as well, that would be a bonus too. Julian Love, you’re gonna look fantastic in green and blue.
Moving on from Gabe Jackson and Quinton Jefferson were not difficult choices.
Cutting Shelby Harris and Al Woods were. However, the Seahawks flipped their script and made the best of the situation. Rather than take the cap room gained and spend it on roster-clogging JAGs – as they have done in the past – they went out with determination and brought in young, rising players with real upside.
All this while impressively filling immediate needs with some intriguing stop-gap players (Evan Brown on the offensive line, Devin Bush at linebacker and bringing back Drew Lock), tendering Ryan Neal in a clearly aggressive move – daring another team to set his market but also saving $1.7 million in cap space – as well as bringing back the bulk of their Exclusive Rights Free Agents.
It is not hard to see what the Seahawks are doing: Making this roster younger, with more upside and giving them as much flexibility as possible to maximize their return in one of the most important drafts in franchise history.
Rather than passively letting the market and player agents dictate to them, the Seahawks are striking with purpose and vision. It is a far cry from what we have witnessed in the recent past. Even if every move does not ultimately prove to be a pure stroke of genius, you can see what they are doing, most of it makes sense and you cannot fault them for trying.
There is one move, however, that does fill a need but does not quite match the other moves.
The Seahawks Have Brought Back Bobby Wagner
Yesterday it was announced they’ve brought Wagner back into the fold on a one-year, up to $7 million contract with incentives.
We are still waiting to hear on the structure of the contract but it is clear what the Seahawks want out of this deal. They want to return a fan favorite, to bring some stability to the linebacker position and to avoid being beholden to a draft that is not deep in effective inside linebackers.
The cost does seem prohibitive, though. Since Wagner had a very good year in Los Angeles, the incentives have a very, very good chance of being “Likely To Be Earned” and thus will count against the current year salary cap.
This will move the Seahawks to make sure they have enough room to cover them on their cap and force some corresponding moves, as you will soon see.
Where They Stand on the Cap
We are going to build on what we talked about last week. I took you on a bit of a rollercoaster ride, telling you the Seahawks had no money to spend and then outlined ways that they could find money to improve the team.
They chose to exercise some of those options and were very active in the market early on. While that is fully commendable, we need to talk about the cost of their aggression.
So again, the Seahawks have no money to spend. None. And that is much closer to reality than the last time I said it.
Currently, the Seahawks have $8.918 million of cap room per OTC. If we take the Wagner contract at full face value, they now have only $2.068 million.
Their draft pool will now cost them about $8.981 million, once you adjust for the 10 picks pushing players off the top 51 against the cap. So, their effective cap space will be in the red by about $6.9 million.
Adding to that, they will need their practice squad and injury money cushion. Somewhere in the neighborhood of $6-10 million would work. They need to find room for that contingency money by trimming some cap space from the current roster.
If you want to call that ‘true effective cap space’, they are about $13-17 million over the cap currently.
Before we get into how they can make up that cap room, let’s backtrack a little and re-emphasize the time element we talked about last week.
The Seahawks will not need that draft pool cap money available until they sign those picks. So likely May or early June.
And the contingency money? They can wait until later in the summer to open that money up.
The point being, it is not great that they are in the red currently. But they do have some time to work things out.
It is definitely not a comfortable situation. Particularly when you examine the needs they have on the interior of the defensive line. A veteran running back would also be a nice addition. A veteran wide receiver too, if we are filling out a wish list.
But the Seahawks do have some time to work things out.
Candidates to Gain Some Cap Room
Updating the chart from last week, the Seahawks still have a few options to get back in the black:
Noah Fant and Uchenna Nwosu – it will be interesting to see if the Seahawks decide to make a move on their contracts to save some cap room. They both have played well but 2023 is the last contracted season for both.
The Seahawks also have robust depth around them (for 2023 at least) and the draft class appears to be a good one at their positions.
Therefore, they have options with those two. Wisdom might seem to dictate that they let the rest of free agency and the draft come to them and then gauge their options — be it a trade (in the case of Fant) or a contract extension.
I did add a column for Post-June 1st trades, because the cap gain numbers for Adams, Diggs and Dissly are very healthy there. It would be a surprise though, if any team wanted to trade for those three with their cap numbers and health status.
That $8.44 million for cutting or reworking Jamal Adams seems like a foregone conclusion given they have invested in two other safeties and now are in desperate need for cap space.
So why hasn’t it happened yet? The Seahawks could have designated him a post-June 1st cut by now, finally tying off one of the worst trades in franchise history.
There are the obvious reasons: swallowing a $24 million dead cap hit is painful, even if it is split over two seasons. They just came off a year where they had $26 million of dead cap on their roster for Russell Wilson but that was easily justifiable. Getting a fantastic return in trade and a wholly unexpected great season from Geno Smith at only a $3.5 million salary made that dead cap number far easier to bear.
The Seahawks would have no such public relations buffer to point to if they cut Jamal Adams loose (although maybe the return of Wagner would blunt it a bit).
It could also be that the team has convinced themselves to give Adams one more year to make this investment work. They had him rushing the passer like crazy in 2020, returning to a more standard strong safety role in 2021 and 2022 got wiped out by injury. They could reason that more defensive line strength and less coverage responsibility on his plate could lead to the true ‘weapon’ style season they have been envisioning since they acquired him.
The counterargument to all that though is Adams’ injury history. After enduring serious groin, shoulder and finger injuries his first two seasons, 2022 was not kind to Jamal Adams in the least. He injured his hand badly on the first day of training camp and once again missed a chance to get valuable practice reps with the team. Then he tore his quad in the first game of the season — an injury that wiped out his 2022 and could put a chunk of his 2023 season in question.
I am increasingly beginning to think that the Seahawks are playing the situation smartly. Not unlike what we discussed above — making some coverage moves on the roster, being patient and letting the market, the draft and circumstance work for them.
How so? By hinging their Adams agenda on some key upcoming dates:
The first of course is June 1st. That is when it is most advantageous to cut Adams and save money on the cap this year. They certainly could cut him sooner and still designate him a post-June 1st cut but would any team really be interested in signing him before June 1st? With his severe injury, unlikely. So, they can let it ride.
Other, sooner dates have significance for this situation also — and they bunch together and could determine the Seahawks’ course of action with Adams:
— April 17th has just been announced as the first day of off-season activity for the Seahawks. They will likely have more than just a typical check-in with Adams. They will get to measure his recovery status fully.
— April 21st is the deadline for Restricted Free Agents to sign an offer sheet with another team. Ryan Neal currently counts against their salary cap — having been tendered by the Seahawks — but he is not locked into their roster yet. Not until either Neal signs an offer sheet and forces the team to make a decision, or the deadline passes without another team making an offer.
— April 27-29th is the draft. Rob has gathered some intel that the safety class this year is seen as deep and impressive.
The Seahawks really have no practical incentive to make a move on Jamal Adams – be it outright cutting him, or approaching him about a restructure – until those dates have come and gone.
At that point, they will have a good handle on the bulk of their roster, can have some time to assess how the new acquisitions fit on the team, they will have a better picture of Adams’ health timeline and can make a decision on how to proceed.
They also will have sufficiently built-up pressure to negotiate from. Considering the poor safety free agent market, to their cap situation, all the way to a pure numbers game on the roster, they will have a multitude of reasons to talk Adams into considering a pay cut.
If the Seahawks are to continue the aggressive course they have charted for this off-season, they will at a minimum need to approach Adams about renegotiating his contract. Pragmatically, it is less about the stink of an awful trade and more about assuring that Adams will not make a bad trade worse in 2023 by costing the Seahawks another $8.44 million in guaranteed money if and when he steps on the field without a contract adjustment.
Fant, Nwosu and Adams are the clearest paths to gaining cap room this offseason.
Restructuring Diggs and Lockett by converting some salary to bonus and pushing out the cost to future years are options but should be classed as ‘emergency use only.’
Why? When you convert salary to bonus, that converts non-guaranteed money to guaranteed money, reducing your cap flexibility both in the near term and in the future.
That said, it would not shock me one bit – given how vocal Quandre Diggs has been – if we find out that the Seahawks have restructured some of his 2023 deal already to open up some cap room for Wagner. We will see.
Aside from those options, the Seahawks may choose to utilize void years to make the cap work for them and fill needs this summer. They are loathe to do it but in this case it might be the best option to keep some flexibility with players like Diggs and Lockett in 2024.
Hopefully you see why we stumped so hard for a very aggressive strategy in January, including cutting Diggs before $9.9 million of his salary became guaranteed and dealing with Jamal Adams sooner rather than later in order to pick up nearly $18 million in cap room.
The financial forces are going to push the Seahawks to make some interesting decisions the rest of the offseason, because they will need as much flexibility as possible come next year. Why?
A Brief Look at the 2024 Cap Situation
I am going to give you my same song and dance about the cap. Let me first depress you and then tell you why it is not so bad.
The Seahawks do not have much cap money available in 2024.
Their aggressiveness this year – combined with their as-yet lack of aggression on their two high-priced safeties – is conspiring to keep them from having very much free cap space to splurge on next offseason.
But as always, there is room to maneuver.
What is the current picture like?
They have $54 million with 25 contracted players for 2024 per OTC. Take about $30 million off that for the 2023 and 2024 draft classes and you have about $24 million of room with about 42-45 contracted players.
That room does not include any of the $15 million of roster bonus incentives Geno Smith is eligible to earn. As always, they need their injury and practice squad contingency fund.
So basically, we are back to the Seahawks having zero money.
Now for the uplifting good news: it’s not as bleak as it sounds.
The Seahawks will have two more draft classes primed and ready to join the 2022 draft class to form a dynamic young core. That #5 overall pick this year should have a big impact on the field.
They have already addressed sore needs by adding difference-makers on the defensive line with Jones and Reed and at safety with Julian Love.
They have team control of two potentially key players in Darrell Taylor and Michael Jackson Sr.
They can pick up $20.3 million very easily by moving on from their two expensive safeties.
Another $20 million is available on the contracts of Will Dissly, Bryan Mone and Tyler Lockett.
They can pick up $13.8 million by trading Geno Smith. Or they can renegotiate his contract to keep him and avoid a potential $32-46 million cap hit.
They have options and if the 2022 class keeps ascending and they have a successful 2023 class, the picture will look a lot rosier.
One thing of note: At this point, with their cap situation as it is in 2024, circumstance does seem to be pointing towards the potential of the Seahawks seeking a major, major source of cap relief in 2024 by drafting a quarterback at #5 this year.
Geno’s flexible contract has an easy out in 2024. The ability to cut or trade him before being on the hook for his incentive roster bonus, acquiring a serious talent like Jones on a multi-year contract and then spending themselves into the red in 2023 all could be indicators that the Seahawks are positioning themselves for a handoff of the quarterback spot to a second-year player next season.
Concluding Thoughts
Aggression is good but it needs to be smart and well thought out. Opening up cap room is great. But it has to be married to smart moves with that cap room. It is best when complemented by good drafting.
The Seahawks have mostly done well so far. But they have a very long way to go.
At the moment, we have about 60% or so of the off-season picture for the Seahawks. The draft is critical. Even then, the rest of the offseason will not be loaded with simple bottom-shelf roster moves and scouring for summer free agent bargain finds. They still have a lot of work to do.
Finding cap room while still filling key spots on the team without pushing too much cap burden onto 2024 will be the team’s task going forward. John Schneider and his staff are going to need to be very creative and very sharp in their roster planning.
It is most definitely not going to be a boring off-season.
A lot of things will happen between now and the fall. We will be right here all the way to keep you apprised of what is happening and the impact of the moves they make.
Superb post Cha. Totally superb.
And love the Robots reference!
Great stuff as always Curtis. Thanks for this particular the insight into how things look for next off season.
When I see this my first thought is QB at 5 seems more important than ever. The cap situation looks a whole to better if they can move on from Geno after next year with a rookie QB.
Really hope they can extend Nwosu and bite the bullet with Adams on a June designation. Seems like it would give them the room to get under the cap, sign the rookies and add a veteran DT like A’shawn Robinson.
If they can pull that off I would give the free agency period an A grade heading into the draft with no glaring holes in the roster.
My guess is Nwosu will not extend prior to the draft.
He’ll wait and see if the Hawks select an Edge player high or not, then determine his future.
Unless the Hawks have reasonable trade interest in Darrell Taylor, I just don’t see it happening from a ‘business’ perspective.
I hope we can get a deal done, but if we draft Anderson or McDonald then I just can’t see it happening – he’ll be a bridge for them, just like Geno is intended to be for our future QB.
Ugh, few things boil my blood more than that gdm Adams trade. At least Diggs didn’t cost draft picks, and he was returning to form by the the end of the year. Oh well.
I just read a tweet from someone raising some very fair, legitimate concerns about the lack of D-line numbers on the roster
Nearly all of the replies were:
“Nah it’ll be fine”
“Just be quiet and trust the team”
It’s like critical debate can’t happen sometimes. You just have to drink the kool aid and indulge in blind faith.
FWIW — there were also a handful of ‘assuming they’re drafting Carter now’ replies too.
I mean, why should we worry, we’re gonna sign DJ Fluker to play nose tackle, get a couple of rookies who will all shine from their first games and convert Alton Robinson to DE and that should do it. * end sarcasm
These people read the Seattle media
It does seem like there are quite a few good DL options in the 20-52 range. Reinforces your last mock where you had 3 of our top 5 picks being DL.
Same. On social media, even basic, VERIFIABLE statements like “we’re essentially running in the red with our cap space given our commitments” are not only questioned but straight up denied. It’s really troubling that so many are willing to negate any contrary information that combats their “feelings” on a topic as wholly false. This goes well beyond sports, of course but I’ll be damned if Seahawks Twitter isn’t ardent in its need to quadruple team any voice not lock step with the decided narrative.
💯💯💯
Most people aren’t capable of any sort of critical thinking whatsoever and just parrot what they hear from other fans and “media”. Social Media has only exasperated this.
On cap space, give people a little leeway. The cap is confusing at times even for people that enjoy it like me. Trying to have a conversation on Twitter is useless. It took me 2800 words to work through it for just the Seahawks.
The Saints are $50 million over the cap in February and in March they sign Derek Carr to a $105 million contract.
When the Seahawks extend Nwosu for 3 years and $30-40 million this fall your friends will tell you “I thought you said the Seahawks didn’t have any money!”
Save your words for something simpler. Like the people who think the Seahawks will draft a corner in the first round, or take their once-in-a-generation Top-5 draft pick and trade down and draft a guard or a linebacker.
Given twitter’s business model is a bumper sticker i.e. 128 characters or whatever, then yes “Trying to have a conversation on Twitter is useless”, is indeed true, but it’s deliberate design, on purpose, from the beginning.
The baffling part is that there are those who ignore what it is, what it said it is, what it is based on, and seek to find more from it.
Bumper stickers are not reasoning, that are soundbites. Many choose to replace reasoning with soundbites and that has always been the case. Today there is a place for those folks and that stuff, it is called twitter.
The groupthink amongst Hawk fans is remarkable… Several of my friends have gone with the “QB selfie tour is a genius ruse” explanation as if it is the most obvious and indisputable fact ever, and now Hawkblogger has hopped aboard as well… Time will tell…
🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
I don’t understand why more people aren’t taking the perfectly reasonable position that QB or DL is fine
I still think if Richardson or Levis on the board, theres just no excuse not to take a DL with those 2 options. Now if its down to Bryce Young or a DL, thats a different story, Im 50/50 on that. QBoTF is far more important than a non elite DL prospect.
*no excuse to take a DL instead of Richardson or Levis if they are on the board.
Exactly, I’m good with either.
I don’t worry much, they sucked at DL depth in the last 2-4 years.
Sorry, no, they were good at backups the problem was they started them 😀
But truly I don’t think they back themselves in any corner, they’ll draft 2-3 DT/NT type players in round 3-udfa, and that’s it. They didn’t value the position much in recent years anyway
*golf clap*
Thanks for a timely and darn fine piece of work.
Curtis bringing the forensics to the debate! This really supports the long-held opinion around here led by Rob that the FO had a plan moving on from Russell and it didn’t rest on the chance of striking gold with a 32 year old journeyman backup. They have to have a keen eye on this class, and wouldn’t ya know it, they’re at every pro day doing the research.
It’s all well and good Geno balled out, and here’s to hoping he does even better this coming season. But this FO has demonstrated something we haven’t seen from them in a few years — a semblance of longer term planning, an honest attempt at being aggressive (and it paying off), and shrewd contract negotiating, even if we quibble about the total amounts.
But QB is just part of the puzzle, and it’s harder to tease out what the plan for the defensive front 7 is.
I think you’re spot on about Adams’s situation. There’s simply no need to make a final determination about him right now. Let him continue to rehab until it’s time to come in next month and let the team’s physicians and trainers look at him.
I think they would keep him and try to use him the way you describe, but he has to be healthy for that, and I think Seattle will be wary. Also, there’s just no way his current 2023 $18m cap hit remains at that amount, regardless of whether he remains a Seahawk.
Thanks for the detailed work and smooth explanations.
Btw, I would not be surprised if the QB they end up targeting is Hendon Hooker.
That may be who they’re targeting to begin with, or it may be the board falls to them at 5 such that another prospect makes more sense, and they pivot to Hooker.
I wonder the same thing and wonder if Hooker would be available in Round 2.
Good job distilling the most important aspect of the excellent post by Cha.
Taking the “red shirt year” approach with a QB drafted in 2023 seems to be the best path, but it could go differently. Any of the five most likely could pull a “Russell Wilson”, shine in preseason and make a push to start. If that happens the Seahawks could consider trading Geno before the trade deadline or in the off season to fill needs or add draft capital. Unlikely, but so was that move by Mr. Unlimited!
Cha mentions the odds are against trading Adams and a couple others for cap relief and the press to have money to sign the draft picks. Could these two issues be resolved by including some draft picks in the trade?
Also, is there any more cap relief if Adams is injured? Is there some sort of insurance that pays some of his salary? There is a chance he never plays again.
Whatever their plan was, I’m sure they didn’t anticipate having a #5 pick. So they were probably looking at the second tier QBs and have potentially made adjustments when Denver started dropping games.
This is a large leap. Nobody sets out to look for second tier QB’s, mainly because they aren’t established a year in advance
There’s every chance their plan involved trading up. I know we and many others talked about having the stock to easily trade up for a new QB if needed
Regarding post-June 1 trades to create room under the cap, what am I missing? If they trade for player(s) in return, it seems to me that the savings is diminished because the incoming players have to be paid. If they trade for future (2024) draft choices, there is a risk of making the 2023 team less strong depending on who you trade away. Am I missing something obvious?
Usually a post-June trade is a player the team has made redundant by acquiring their replacement. Or it could be just a dispute like Carlos Dunlap with Cincinnati.
Great post – thanks for all of the great info! Such a fascinating offseason. Question though… what is a JAG?
1) Your uncle’s favorite CBS show to stream.
2) An NFL player paid by Shahid Kahn.
3) “Just A Guy”
😂
1) incorrect because Uncle doesn’t stream and only has cable
Okay, Boomer.
*Did I use that right?* 🤪
Just Another Guy or someone a little better than Cody Barton:)
Haha. Awesome, thanks.
Thanks for asking this I thought it was just our propensity to grab former jaguar players
Lol… I had the same thought, which is why I asked!
Two players that always fly under the radar are Alton Robinson and Tyreke Smith. The most recent comment by PC is that Robinson is still recovering from his knee injury…but will either or both be fully healthy for the start of 2023 and, if so, what impact could that have on draft selections…
At this point, both of these guys, if healthy, would be competing for a rotational reserve position and Tyreke could also help out on ST.
Thank you, Curtis, for the informative post.
Really appreciate the time and effort as well as the knowledge presented cha. Great stuff.
This was such a good write up, Curtis. So glad to see you peer into next year’s cap situation. If we can continue drafting as we did last year, the Seahawks will be able to alleviate a lot of the financial burden.
I don’t know if anyone here listens to the Hawkblogger podcasts, but Hawkblogger made a back handed dig at Rob when he was promoting Rob Rang’s work on the draft. Said he was “A good draft guy that does his research and doesn’t pound his chest like other draft people do.”
Then during the same pod he mentioned following trends with how the Seahawks draft, but yet keeps talking up DL with sub 33 inch arms like Kancey and Ika. Friend of the blog Jeff just sits there and could tell he knew who Hawkblogger was talking about. Do these people actually think before they talk?
Well, if that was aimed at me, I won’t dignify it with a response
I don’t really see why we have to all go to war. Kenneth, Brian, Field Gulls. Maybe it’s a Seahawks/Seattle thing?
Excellent write up! Thanks Curtis. One question, you mentioned they need to have $6-10M for practice squad and injury buffers. Why is that? I thought only the top 51 salaries and all signing bonuses counted against the cap. Do practice squad players also count? I’d typically think they were cheaper than the top 51 salaries?
Great question Ksal.
Yes the practice squad players count against the cap per Article 13 of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.
But the practice squad is not formed until the day after cutdown day in late August/early September.
That’s what I was referring to in the piece when I pointed out the team didn’t need to find that contingency money until then.
From now until then, only the 51 top salaries count towards the salary cap. Once the practice squad is established, it is the top 51 + the practice squad.
Just listen to Cha haha. He’s got it.
Practice players do count and there can be up to 16 of them. So…collectively they can add up.
You typically save 2-3 million to maybe sign replacements for players that have been placed on IR.
My fear is that they won’t get this cap straightend out in the next couple years and it will keep dragging on from poor management. I can envision a situation in 2025 or 26 where we’re saying, “they’re really wasting levis/Richardson prime years of a rookie deal paying all this dead weight and not able to go out and spend big. I might be starting with the negative stuff too early but I don’t know. Last off-season free agency was mixed, or I should say crap except Nwosu. This year was better but they spent 7 million to Bobby instead of getting someone younger in on a 2 or 3 year deal at a position of more significance with that money. I’ve gone back and forth a lot this off-season on how I feel about the front office.
Great feedback everyone.
Trust me, it makes it easier to write these articles, knowing I’m not the only one interested in the cap.
Can Jamal Adams pass a physical right now in order to be cut or do you not need a physical for a cut?
He can be cut without passing a physical.
He probably can’t.
And they don’t need him to pass to cut him.
They cut Chris Carson last year with a Failed Physical designation.
Suppose in no particular order the first four players off the board are C.J. Stroud, Will Levins, Will Anderson Jr. and Anthony Richardson. Then what?
If that was the case. John Schneider/Pete Carroll are probably going to take Bryce Young. That is my guess. Of the 4QBs Young is probably the most pro-ready QB. But he is also the most likely to get injured. Look at how often Tua Tagovailoa gets injured. And he is 20 pounds heavier than Young.
Fate
Hey Cha, excellent work here disecting the seahawks cap situation. And I agree with you, capology is very confusing for those who don’t enjoy it like you clearly do. We should definitely be patient with people who just don’t understand how the finances truly work.
I do have one question though. At what point in time do teams need to be fully cap compliant? As you said the Saints were $50m over their cap and did a bunch of maneuvers to reduce it, then they add a high price free agent. So are they compliant right now, or need to be by the time the season starts? Very confusing.
Thanks again!
Yeah, another good question.
Teams need to be in compliance for the current year when the new league year starts. This year it was March 15. If they were over the 2023 cap, they needed to make moves to get under it by that time.
For the rest of the year, they cannot go over the 2023 cap.
They can go over the 2024 cap right now as much as they want, as long as by March 2024 they are back under the cap.
That’s the rub.
But just one thing to know – sites like OTC and Spotrac do not have razor-accurate numbers. They operate on public knowledge from reporters and sources. So they report a team is over the cap in 2023 for instance, it is just the best information they have at the time. They may not be privy to every single move a team makes to get cap compliant.
Just a comment to say the amount of quality content on this blog is phenomenal.
Every article I feel like I’m learning something new.
Thank-you to you Rob & thank you to you Cha for all the work you put in.
Now Go Hawks!
I definitely echo these thoughts, I can only imagine where many of us would be if it werent for people like Rob and Curtis Allen putting in the work providing the information they provide and not the usual smooth brain dumpster fire takes we generally get from media talking heads and other content creators.
I agree, I love the detailed analysis. I’m a numbers guy and I still find the whole cap situation very confusing. Especially when I hear about teams like the saints that are perfectly over. Thanks for explaining it all Cha.
And I enjoyed Robs recent line heavy draft. That program looks fun.
Nicely written Cha. We have written quite a bit about how the Seahawks are “overspent” at the safety position but there are 2 other positions where Seattle is also overspent that will need to be resolved in the next year or two;TE and WR.
With the Dissly contract and picking up the 5th year option on Fant, Seattle has two of the highest paid TEs in the League. The good news is that the group of Seattle TEs played very well last year. The bad news is the Dissly injury clouds the outlook for 2023.
Both DK and Tyler Lockett got FMV starting WR contracts. Again, the good news is that their 2023 performances justified their cost. The biggest question in 2023 and moving forward is if/when Father Time catches up with Tyler. WR is a value position in today’s NFL and adding another young potential starter WR on a rookie contract could prove to be a great investment in the next year or two.
Yet again cha another great piece breaking everything down. Smarter for taking the time to read this.
For every Rob Staton, Danny O’Neil or Mike Sando there is two Corbin Smiths or Jim Moores. How can one justify a lazy defensive tackle with our 5th pick when we have a real chance at a franchise altering qb like Richardson or Levis. (so rare in Seahawks land).
Also, get rid of Adams and Dissly. Extend Fant (at a reasonable contract) and don’t touch Locketts contract. He’s earned being left alone
Not everyone is required to think the same, or have an opinion that you agree with. A diversity of opinions is a good thing. If everyone is thinking alike than no one is actually thinking.
Personally, I wouldn’t want a team I cheer for to draft Jalen Carter, and I hope that the Hawks don’t do it if Anderson/Richardson/Young/Stroud are available, but concerns about their make up would have also kept me from wanting Warren Sapp and Randy Moss.
What I would say is — I don’t think the Sapp comparison is a legit one here. I don’t know enough about Moss. I think Carter is quite a unique judgement call for teams.
They were both generational, 2 of the best talents ever at their position. I don’t fully remember their situations but I don’t recall them having so much baggage, just one big issue each.
They were talents that you almost couldn’t pass one. Carter is not comparable to them.
Excellent write up Cha, very much appreciated.
On a separate not I made the mistake of reading PFN’s most recent mock.
Had to be the worst value for our picks in a 3 round mock I’ve seen yet. And other than the 1st 4 picks the whole thing was a mess.
So a thanks to Rob as well. I went a re-read your mock to bring some hope and reality back to my world.
Keep up the great work you 2.
The one thing I am getting from all the mock drafts that posters publish on here is that there is going to be a lot of good options for Seattle. This FA period has really set it up.
Fair play to the FO, after the dismal last (excluding last year) few years of FA/drafting they have pretty much surprised us all.
In regards to the Bobby Wagner signing. I am putting the blame on Pete Carroll. This signing good or bad has Pete Carroll’s name all over. Pete Carroll must be thinking. Let’s go for it. Here is my chance at a second super bowl victory. Pete Carroll is all-in.https://giphy.com/gifs/pokerstars-win-poker-vamos-gh5fASGX7EbHAn2bNn
Let’s ride!!!
Great post. As someone who’s *only* followed the NFL for 10 years, this is v. insightful stuff. Thanks.
Certainly points to QB @ 5 to me!
I think the whole DL-over-QB-@5-or-we-riot thing could be a symptom of Seattle’s good luck at the position for the past decade.
Wilson’s draft position, meteoric rise, and consistent high-level play – followed by catching lightening in a bottle with Geno… it’s just not the experience many or most other franchises and fanbases have.
Think of the Saints or the 49er, Jets, or any number of others. These people know the hard way how rare and important great QBs are, and would surely be in favour of taking a shot when at pick 5, to stash behind your vet.
I think a legitimate question to think about is whether there is some of that mentality with JS/PC.
We know they have fantastic confidence in their culture and their QB-friendly system.
Could that mean they (like the section of the fanbase I mentioned above) are happy to roll with Geno — thinking to themselves they could have similar results a few years down the line with – Lock, or a Hendon Hooker type, or another vet they trade for? How does that confidence in their ability to get something out of someone affect their decision making at #5?
The other way to look at it is confidence those areas would also make you bullish on converting the upside of a QB prospect @ #5 into a success.
For me it’s interesting because one of my favourite things about the Seahawks is the culture… it’s their biggest competitive advantage in my view. If they feel bullish about introducing one of these top QB prospects into that culture and system, I’d feel very optimistic about them making a success of it.
Also worth noting that they were actively interested in trading Wilson in order to be able to draft Josh Allen and would’ve drafted Mahomes — so when they see someone in the draft they like, they typically are willing to act
My biggest grip with the anti-QB group is none of them are saying, ‘if John likes one of these guys I trust him’. They’re saying, ‘this won’t happen’ or don’t even consider it an option. Which is silly.
Agreed. If JS wants to pick a QB – then it’s time to be excited.
If you’ve set yourself up to be disappointed with that outcome – you’re doing something wrong!
It reminds me a bit of the Ken Walker draft reaction – and then subsequent back-peddling etc when he lit it up this year.
Agreed.
It’s phenomenal what we are witnessing in just the last twelve months with thus franchise.
1-trading away a top NFL QB for a huge haul
2-finding a unicorn – a career backup QB who exceeds all expectations
3-being gifted about 15-20 spots higher in the draft than they anticipated with that Denver pick
4-In a draft class with four terrific choices at QB and other than Will Anderson, truly no one else worthy of the fifth pick
5-negotiating a brilliant contract for that career backup that includes outs as well as incentives to keep him motivated
6-having nearly the perfect fertile soil for a rookie QB to grow in – a vet QB to take the pressure off, bookend tackles, two all pro wide receivers and a top running back
Ten years from now, we will look back and realize that confluence of events will never happen again in our lifetimes.
And we have people not even willing to entertain simply the idea of selecting a quarterback
You nailed it!
If JS drawn up a plan like this. People would have said he was in fantasy land. To trade Russ, hit on the draft big time last year, find a starting QB in Geno to make the playoffs then end up with a top 5 pick in a draft with 4 quality QB options is beyond a dream scenario for the Hawks.
If they hit on QBOF this draft and add some more quality players on the OL / DL they could be set for the next 5-6 yrs at least.
Personally I think the only option should be a QB. If it was anyone besides Arizona I would go as far as saying they should trade up to 3 to get him. Doubt the Cardinals would even take that call however. I really like Anderson but vs a QBOF there is no debate IMO.
💯 🔨
Is it possible that they bring Woods back on a vet minimum deal like they have with other vets they’ve released in the past?
I don’t want to judge or overreact while there’s still time left to address it but this article has me feeling uneasy about the NT situation.
Thanks Cha, great, easy to understand write up.