This is a guest post by Curtis Allen
The Seahawks are coming off their first loss in Mike Macdonald’s tenure, a valiant effort on the road in Detroit that saw their defense overwhelmed by injuries and superior scheming and play calling by the Detroit offensive staff.
How they respond to that loss will give us a glimpse into their fortitude as a team and Macdonald as a coach. This week in press conferences Macdonald appeared a bit irritated about being asked about the Detroit loss, wanting the team to put it behind them. No doubt several glaring defensive mistakes have been on Macdonald’s mind and he is eager to get the team back out on the field and move on from that experience.
It would appear that the Giants are a prime candidate handed to the Seahawks on a silver platter for a ‘get right’ game to build up some confidence for the Thursday Night game against division rival San Francisco.
The Giants are the #29 scoring offense in the NFL currently and will be without top Wide Receiver Malik Nabers and possibly starting Running Back Devin Singletary.
How important are those two players to the Giants? Between the two of them, they are responsible for over 51% of the runs + targets on their offense. Wan’Dale Robinson is a distant third place at 16.5%. No other Giant even breaks 10%.
The shoe is on the other foot this week for the Seahawks, after missing a big chunk of their defensive line against the Lions and taking it on the chin. It is arguable Giants are in even a worse spot, with a pretty poor offense with their starters and having less offensive depth than the Seahawks had defensive line depth, will be hamstrung even more.
On defense, they are very similar to the Lions. They feature talent along the defensive line, but are vulnerable in the defensive backfield. Cornerbacks Deonte Banks and Cordale Flott are rated as two of the worst corners in the NFL through four weeks.
How should the Seahawks play this one?
Make Hay in the First Half
Through four games, the Giants defense has been historically bad defending the pass in the first half of the game. How bad?
They are conceding an 85.2% completion rate, with four touchdowns and zero interceptions for a gaudy 127.5 QB Rating. In the first quarter alone, quarterbacks are 22 of 24 for a 91.7% rate.
Their saving grace has been stiffening in the Red Zone and holding opponents to Field Goals. (Note: the Washington Commanders beat them by kicking seven Field Goals).
The Seahawks must take advantage. Come out firing, mixing the run and pass and establish a lead early in the game and put their injured offense in a bind. That is something well within the Seahawks’ capabilities, especially when you consider the Giants’ vulnerability at defensive back.
What about the talented pass rush trio of Dexter Lawrence, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Brian Burns?
Oddly enough, the Giants have not been able to generate a consistent pass rush without blitzing. Lawrence has been very good but Thibodeaux has been extremely hot and cold and Burns still seems to be settling onto his new team.
Their two best games from a pass-rushing perspective were against Washington (5 sacks on 12 blitzes for 26% pressure) and Cleveland (eight sacks on 19 blitzes for 29% pressure). The other two games, against Minnesota and Dallas? They only blitzed a combined 11 times and recorded two sacks while Sam Darnold and Dak Prescott picked them apart.
So, the Giants are better when they blitz, yes?
Actually no. Here is the other stat that will take some time to wrap your head around:
In four games, the Giants have blitzed on 42 plays. In those plays, they have conceded a 78.1% completion rate, 332 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions and recorded 17 first downs.
The equals a 149.1 QB Rating. A perfect QB rating is 158.3.
Watch the Cowboys burn the Giants’ blitz attempt last week:
💿💿💿
📺: #DALvsNYG on Prime Video
📲: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/LvklCbYJ1e pic.twitter.com/jJqVToHwyH— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) September 27, 2024
Dane Belton poorly telegraphs a blitz coming from the nickel spot. Deuce Vaughn slides over and picks it up and Prescott finds Cee Dee Lamb who has burned Banks and deep safety Tyler Nubin has taken a horrid angle.
That is about as good (and bad) as it gets.
Is it hard to imagine Geno Smith and D.K.Metcalf working out that kind of play, with one of the running backs alertly picking up the blitzer? It is not.
But the Giants must be at defending the run well, aren’t they? No. So far through four games they are giving up 4.7 yards per carry and 28 first downs on the ground, good for #24 in the NFL.
As Sea Mode in yesterday’s comment section pointed out, the Giants are next to last in conceding yards after contact. With Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet, the Seahawks will have weapons for days on which to feast on this Giants defense.
If the Seahawks can take advantage of the Giants not unlike they did last year and build up a sizable halftime lead, they will be able to extinguish New York’s hopes of coming across country with a beat up squad and pulling off a shocking upset.
Keep the Game in Front of You on Defense
An unofficial look at Daniel Jones’ throws through four games shows that a high percentage of those throws targeted Nabers.
The Giants leaned heavily on Nabers to be their dynamic offensive weapon. With him out, there are not many opportunities to threaten all parts of the field.
Robinson is more of a catch-and-make-a-move type of receiver (although a good one) and Darius Slayton has not been used very much (he is on a trajectory for career lows in several categories thus far).
With their top Running Back also likely out, the Giants currently do not have a strength to rely on in order to weather these injury challenges.
As a result, the Giants will likely try to pick their way down the field, piece by piece. Daniel Jones will be asked to carry a much greater part of the offense. Brian Daboll has best utilized Jones when he is getting the ball out of his hands quickly and letting his receivers make plays with their feet.
So far, the Giants have almost completely ignored their Tight Ends in the passing game. Daniel Bellinger and Theo Johnson only have ten targets in four games between them. It is likely their number will get called ten times in this game alone. The safeties and linebackers will have to be alert in coverage.
In the absence of established runners, he will likely call Jones’ number in rushes more than he is typically comfortable with.
On defense, a pass rush is always good. But this Seahawks team would benefit most by having a flood coverage that is close to the line of scrimmage, surveying and watching Jones’ eyes as he takes the snap, and then closing quickly and securing the runner or receiver to the ground as soon as possible.
The Giants will no doubt try to throw the ball deeper downfield on occasion. But the game will be won or lost within five yards of the line of scrimmage.
This could be just the kind of seek-and-destroy exercise that could restore confidence in the defense and get them mentally ready for a crucial game on Thursday night.