This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

The Mike Macdonald era in Seattle is off to a 2-0 start. While they haven’t buried their opponents in those first two games, winning while still experiencing NFL growing pains signals encouraging progress.

Today’s game against the Miami Dolphins was supposed to be a sizable step up in competition for the Seahawks — an extremely talented AFC team with aspirations of a deep playoff run.

Things obviously haven’t gone to plan for the Dolphins. Another concussion to Tua Tagovailoa and his subsequent placement on Injured Reserve has left a hole that threatens to sink their season.

Also, what was one of the NFL’s best pass-rushing teams last year has seen a sizable drain in talent. Christian Wilkins left for Las Vegas, Bradley Chubb is still out and recovering from a torn ACL and Shaq Barrett decided to retire.

Yet they still feature a lot of firepower – particularly on offense – and that must be respected.

This game is an important marker for the Seahawks to see where they stack up against the rest of the NFL — not to mention a top-flight tune-up for next week’s game in Detroit against the Lions.

The individual matchups will be a treat to watch — D.K. Metcalf versus old rival Jalen Ramsey, Zach Sieler against former teammate Connor Williams, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill against Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon, Jaelen Philips against Charles Cross.

The Seahawks need to win more of these matchups than they lose. Or at least hold the majority of them to a draw.

What areas of this game do the Seahawks need to excel in to go 3-0?

Control the First Half with the Offense

In the Mike McDaniel era, the Dolphins are a fantastic 16-2 when leading at halftime and an awful 3-14 when trailing. While it is true that most teams feature a winning record when leading after two quarters and a losing record when trailing, not many are as extreme as the Dolphins.

This is more so when you consider the Quarterback now running the offense is a sizeable step down in capability from the starter, which hinders their ability to generate points quickly.

While a lot of attention is rightly being given to the shift in Quarterbacks, the offense can help their defense tremendously by applying scoreboard and game clock pressure with a balanced attack by Geno Smith and the running game.

The Dolphins have not yet found their stride in two main aspects of their defense yet and the Seahawks must take advantage.

On run defense, Miami was a top-10 unit last year. They conceded only 3.8 yards per carry and only gave up 100 yards on the ground in six of their games in 2023. This year? 4.5 yards per carry and they have given up 100 yards in each of their first two games.

They really miss Wilkins and Jerome Baker on their run defense.

Fan confidence in the Seahawks’ running game is not high after a poor performance against the Patriots and the unsettling news about Ken Walker’s oblique injury troubles. However, a recommitment to the running game, with the evolving chemistry on the offensive line, should produce some opportunities to feature a more balanced offense this week. That simultaneously takes some pressure off Geno Smith to carry the offense and helps the defense do their job.

In pass rushing, Miami has seen a stunning drop in effectiveness so far this season. Last year they were one of the NFL’s best, finishing at #3 overall in sacks (56) and pressure rate (27.7%) without very much blitzing at all (21.5% of the time, sixth lowest). A good chunk of that effectiveness fed off their ability to keep the running game in check and force obvious passing situations. Combine that with an elite quick-strike offense, and you have a real force.

This year? In their first two games they have been among the league’s worst. They have three sacks (which projects to 26 for the season) and a mere 15.6% pressure rate. This is despite a considerable uptick in blitzing (31.1%).

Geno Smith knows how to handle heavy blitzing. He has been blitzed on 33.7% of his drop backs this year and has consistently burned them. He is completing 75% of his passes for 9.6 yards per attempt and a 101.2 passer rating.

Where can he attack this defense in the passing game? An area that has proven to be a weakness for Miami is passes to Running Backs and Tight Ends. The Dolphins this year are conceding 7.6 yards per catch to Tight Ends and a whopping 12.4 yards per catch to Running Backs.

This is not new. They were among the league’s worst in these two categories last year as well. Yet strangely, their first two opponents have not gone to that well very often.

The Seahawks need to attack this weakness liberally this week. They have excellent pass-catchers in Noah Fant, Zach Charbonnet and Kenny McIntosh. A couple of well-timed passes to beat the blitz and flip the field could really help them take charge of this game.

Protect the Perimeter on Defense

In Tua Tagovailoa’s first two years as an NFL Quarterback in Miami, he was steady but unspectacular for Head Coach Brian Flores. He missed some time with injuries and was not making a strong case to be the Dolphins’ long-term franchise Quarterback.

When Mike McDaniel became the head coach in 2022, Tagovailoa exploded with a season that garnered some MVP votes.

What happened?

Acquiring Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle maturing into a star certainly helped. But something else drove his success — throwing over the middle of the field. In his first two seasons, Tagovailoa avoided throwing in the middle like his life depended on it and it severely limited his game.

McDaniel changed that. He deployed plays that took advantage of his Quarterback’s elite processing and decision-making. As a result, his entire game improved. He added more air yards to his passes due to being able to make defenses respect his ability to attack more of the field. Slants and short post routes were thrown before pass rushers could get anywhere near him. Therefore, Tagovailoa has been the Fastest Gun on the NFL in getting the ball out in recent years, and as a result his pressure rate faced was miniscule.

That is the context we need to discuss defending backup Skylar Thompson.

He is a vastly different Quarterback than Tagovailoa.

He will rarely throw over the middle of the field.

Have a look at the two target charts from his starts in 2022:

The field between the numbers looks like a barren wasteland. Only a fraction of his attempts attacked this area.

That was 2022. Has he improved in this area two years later? The preseason says no. A video of his every throw in preseason this year shows that passes intentionally designed to go to the middle of the field were only made on approximately 10 or so of his 61 throws. Most were awful, some were disastrous and should have been or were intercepted.

That is not to say that Thompson will never throw over the middle today. In fact, you can probably expect a throw or two to try and surprise the Seahawk defense. In whole though, success on defense will mean using the sideline as an ally and pressing Wide Receivers to disrupt their routes from the numbers to the sideline and using a deep safety to keep an eye on anyone who gets through the net.

McDaniel will very likely call a section of the plays he did for Tagovailoa — those snap-throws to the perimeter to De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert and the two Wide Receivers and let them create with their speed and vision. It’s a Miami staple and it works very well for them.

Edge defenders like Devon Witherspoon, Jerome Baker, Tyrell Dodson and K’Von Wallace will be especially important in defending these types of plays. They will need the vision to see the angles, the speed to get behind blockers and the sure-handedness to bring these runners down before they get a head of steam.

This is also true of the run game. Yes, Miami does run in between the tackles. But they love to have sweeps and end-around runs that give their speedy backs room to operate. The cornerbacks will need to be alert to get off Wide Receiver blocks and show determination to tackle these runners for a minimal gain. Both Woolen and Witherspoon have been graded very well by PFF in run defense so far this year. This will be a very intriguing chess match.

The other area that Thompson differs from Tagovailoa is he uses his legs much more. He hangs onto the ball far longer than Tagovailoa, simply because he does not have his processing speed and confidence. Asking him to stand in the pocket, scan and deliver a strike is not his strength.

He is faster and has a strong arm to throw on the run. Pass rushers will need to pursue him with vigour and limit his time to find a receiver. We all saw this in Seattle with Russell Wilson, once he escapes the pocket, Wilson was very dangerous. Thompson has some of that to his game. The problem for him is, it is too big a part of his game, and at times he can be inaccurate which negates the strength. He also prefers to retreat to the perimeter to buy time rather than go forward in traffic.

My guess would be Mike Macdonald will take another pass this week on revealing his Bag of Tricks on defense, and deploy a standard tack when the backup is in: flood coverage and make him beat you. How is this different than years past, where players like Colt McCoy would dice the Seahawks up? This team can get pressure with four. Inside pocket pressure from the likes of Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy will be nicely supplemented by the speed of Boye Mafe and the power of Derick Hall, with some Dre Jones mixed in for good measure.

That is not to say Macdonald will not dial up a package in a key moment.

Like the offense, the early part of the game is key. Thompson typically has started slow and rusty – particularly with his accuracy on throws of any length – and had a difficult time finding a groove. If they can help the offense have a quick start, that ratchets up the pressure to keep up and Thompson just is not built for that.

In his 2022 playoff game start, he was 7 for 21 with an interception in the second half of the game. The defense had created three turnovers but Thompson was just not able to take advantage.

As talented as Miami is, this should be a game the Seahawks can have in hand and control.