One of the best feelings when scouting quarterbacks is seeing a player not protected by his scheme. High-percentage throws, often in the form of extended hand-offs and wide-open deep shots, are common. You end up judging players based on non-translatable environments. When you see a player doing something as simple as throwing over the middle with consistency into tight coverage, it’s virtually heaven.
Memphis’ Seth Henigan has shown he can do this. It was enjoyable watching his tape. I want to run through my thoughts based on what I’ve seen in his three games so far this season.
This is his fourth year starting and his experience shows. There were multiple times against Florida State where you could see clear progression through reads. It’s rare that you’ll see a player go to a first, second and third read and eventually pull the trigger over the middle. Henigan does that.
His first handful of throws in the game showcased a NFL style skillset. His internal clock would tick as he eyed up a couple of reads over the middle before checking down. He took off on a roll-out before throwing for a first down on the run. He’d take a three-step drop, set his feet and throw to a covered defender over the middle because that was the best option, delivering an accurate pass with timing over the middle (no hitch) to get the seven yards on first down the defense was offering. He dropped in a nicely thrown 45-yard downfield shot to the right sideline for a big play, noticing the opportunity with a 1v1 outside.
Henigan diced up Florida State all afternoon, showing total command of his offense and an ability to attack different areas of the field. I just keep coming back to the way he was throwing to covered receivers but his timing and accuracy was sufficiently good that he was able to make completions over the middle of the field. This is what you need to do in the NFL.
He also showed poise and improvisation when needed. On one play at the end of the second quarter his intended target was a quick throw to the outside receiver. I think he anticipated the cornerback blitz but perhaps didn’t expect the defender would get to him as quickly as he did and then jump to block the throw, rather than go for the sack. Henigan pumped to deceive the corner, moved to his right to buy a little more room and then completed the pass for a nine-yard gain on first down.
One of the things I’m really zoning in on this year is how a quarterback handles third downs. I was really impressed with Henigan here.
With 18 seconds left in the first half he turned a 2nd and 20 into a 3rd and 7 with a layered pass over the middle in-between defenders, then figured out the flaw in the coverage on the next play to get a first down — setting up a scoring opportunity as time expired.
He started the second half with a laser throw into tight coverage over the middle to convert a 3rd and 5 situation. The pass needed extra zip and perfect accuracy and he delivered. He capped this drive with a 3rd and goal play-action touchdown — throwing off-balance with incredible anticipation and accuracy, guiding his pass to the receiver’s right arm as he fell backwards to avoid the covering defender.
The play of the game was a 3rd and 13 play with 4:05 left in the third quarter. He stepped up to avoid a blitz off the left edge, side-stepped to avoid his own lineman running into him and had to re-set in the pocket. He did all this while keeping his eyes downfield. With very little back-lift he then threw over the middle for a conversion:
These are plays you can look at and imagine happening in the NFL.
Against North Alabama you saw similar plays — throws into tight coverage, completed by standing tall in the pocket, throwing with base and timing and delivering on target for chunk yardage. He was credited with five ‘big time’ throws in the game, was able to get his opponent to jump off-side on more than one occasion and again exploited 1v1 coverage on the outside with another 45-yard touch pass.
With the rest of the season to come — he already has 84 career passing touchdowns for Memphis (26 interceptions). He has added nine rushing touchdowns. This is the kind of career production and experience teams love and it shows with the confidence and understanding he plays with.
I like his mechanics. His release is sufficiently quick and he can throw with touch. His ball placement both on an intermediate and deep level is good. He doesn’t have an absolute cannon of an arm but he understands when a throw needs a bit more mustard to beat a coverage. He’s not a slouch in the pocket and can move around when needed. Certainly he can throw on boot-legs and roll-outs and his pocket movement is good.
Ceiling will be the big question mark. He is not a big powerful gunslinger who can launch it downfield 60-yards and I’m not sure he ever will be. Neither is he a massively creative force to extend plays and as a runner it’s very much on a ‘needs must’ basis. Henigan is technically impressive and I can definitely see him appealing to the Shanahan tree teams looking for someone to run their scheme. I don’t think he’s limited to these systems though — and there’s enough on tape to feel like he has sufficient promise to be drafted with the idea of seeing how he gets on with the step-up in quality.
Henigan is a player I want to keep watching this season. He’s unlikely to end up being a high draft pick but he’d be worthy of a Senior Bowl invite to show what he can do. He might not be physically brilliant enough to project as an eventual NFL starter but a player like this definitely deserves a chance in the NFL. He was a lot more intriguing than I expected.
At the moment I have Quinn Ewers and Shedeur Sanders rated as legit first round talents (although both players carry question marks — injuries for Ewers, baggage for Sanders). Carson Beck is a fringe first round player for me. Garrett Nussmeier, on limited playing time, has a tentative day two grade although I need to see more starts to confirm that mark. I think Cam Ward and Jalen Milroe deserve to be graded in round three currently, due to their physical tools, upside and character — but both players are technically flawed and will need to show progress over the coming weeks in that area. Then I have eight players graded in a day three tier, including Henigan. It’ll be interesting to see if any of that group can show sufficient progress in the coming weeks to make a jump.
