I’m not a huge fan of the Sam Howell trade
When the Commanders signed Marcus Mariota, I thought Howell would just get the Mac Jones treatment. Despite a decent start in Washington last season, things soon spiralled. Admittedly, his situation was not ideal. The Commanders had a Head Coach on the way out, they traded away their two best pass rushers before the deadline and the team fell apart. That said, he also took too many avoidable sacks and had a penchant for turnovers.
Rightly or wrongly, Howell went from being seen as a possible answer for the long haul to a player nobody thought was the future in Washington.
Now, the Seahawks have dropped 24 picks in the draft in round three and 27 in round five to acquire two years of Howell. They’ve gone from #78 to #102 and from #152 to #179.
Is it the end of the world? No, of course not. They needed a backup quarterback and Howell is cheap with starting experience. However, it’s hard to fathom why Adam Schefter, who broke the news, reported ‘Seattle has long liked Howell’ yet in 2022 — immediately after the Russell Wilson trade — they passed on him several times including in round four. That doesn’t exactly scream a great desire to have him on the team, especially when this was before Geno Smith’s resurgence.
Schneider, speaking on Seattle Sports today, spoke about how impressed he was by Howell when the Commanders played in Seattle in November. It was a decent display — but it also came against the Seahawks’ defense at pretty much its worst.
For what it’s worth, I had Sam Howell as a fourth round prospect on my final 2022 horizontal board and was never a big fan.
So what does it all mean in terms of the bigger picture?
It could be that they simply had to hedge for the draft. Going into it with only one contracted quarterback would be extremely dangerous — plus you’d be a Smith injury away from starting a rookie. They needed another player and for that reason I’m tempted to suggest this is just a necessary addition, filling a need.
Further to this, his salary of just over $985,000 is a lot cheaper than all of the veterans being signed in the last few days — many of which are well past their best.
However, the trade compensation feels inflated unless other teams created a bidding war. Schneider said on the radio that several others were trying to make a deal with the Commanders.
You can’t help but wonder if this is indicative of a team resigned to not drafting a quarterback again this year. Perhaps the players they want are not going to be available? If Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy are the third and fourth picks overall (assuming someone like Minnesota trades up), it could become a one quarterback draft for the Seahawks (at least in the early rounds). There’s a chance Michael Penix Jr is taken before the 16th pick too.
Or, they might intend to trade down from #16 and will consider Penix Jr later — but there’s no guarantee you get him. Thus, you need insurance.
It is frustrating to think that the Seahawks might have to endure yet another year with kicking the can down the road at the position. You can’t force things but eventually they’re going to have to be bold and ambitious — just as Kansas City, Buffalo and Baltimore were to acquire their franchise QB’s.
It’s also true that in a draft rich in day two talent, they now only have one pick in that range. I’d say the chances of trading down from #16 just massively increased. That makes sense to a degree — although in every mock I work on at the moment, there’s a noticeable talent drop from #16 to outside the top-22.
I can see why they might prefer a quantity approach and might trade down several times to fill out their roster. To an extent I can get behind that. It’s also very easy to imagine some of the players they’d miss out on at #16.
They talked up Drew Lock so much, only to see him walk out the door to the Giants. Is this an overreaction to that? Is it an overreaction to Lock’s departure and perhaps the realisation that Maye and McCarthy won’t be within reach and that the draft range with Penix Jr is murky?
Whatever the reason, my conclusion of the deal is such — it feels pricey, I’m a little bit concerned it means another year without drafting a quarterback, but I also appreciate they probably had to do something at the position before the draft.
With everything else, I think they’ve done the right thing
Before the market opened I said I hoped the Seahawks wouldn’t be overly aggressive in free agency. I think they’ve been restrained in a good way (at least up until today’s trade).
We’ve seen how the market is once again fool’s gold. Decent players have been paid like elite players. I want to see the Seahawks invest in their O-line as much as anyone — but not at any cost.
For example, I had a fourth round grade on Jonah Jackson going into the 2020 draft. He was taken in round three. Jackson was a solid college guard with a chance to become a NFL starter. He was PFF’s 34th ranked guard in 2023 with a 61.0 grade.
He’s now earning $17m a year in LA. That is ridiculous.
Robert Hunt graded a lot better with the Dolphins, he was PFF’s sixth best guard with a 76.4 grade. However, he only played 11 games last season. Now he’s on $20m a year.
Damien Lewis, who most people would agree saw his career in Seattle stall out after they made the poor decision to move him to left guard just to accommodate Gabe Jackson, will join Hunt in Carolina on a deal worth $13.25m a year.
None of these players are difference makers, yet two of them are earning difference-maker contracts. Let’s go back to Jackson and the fourth round grade from 2020. There are seven guards on my current horizontal board graded for round three. Zak Zinter, who I have in round two, could last to the third round as he recovers from injury.
The Seahawks don’t need to spend $17-20m on a guard in this market. They need to go and draft a guard in the first four rounds and develop them into a competent or plus starter. It’s not rocket science. This is a quality offensive line draft. Use it to your advantage.
They have finally shifted resource to key areas
I had no problem with the decision to spend big on Leonard Williams. I think he’s a really good player — the type they’ve been trying to find for years. The deal is for three seasons and given the success Mike Macdonald had with Justin Madubuike, I’m fascinated to see what Williams can achieve under the new Head Coach.
Let’s put it this way — give me a player like Williams over the inflated prices being handed out to the guards listed above.
When you put this with the investment in Dre’Mont Jones and Jarran Reed, plus what they’ve spent on the edges in salary (Uchenna Nwosu) and second round picks (Mafe, Hall, Taylor) — this is genuine investment up front.
If you take it to the offensive line, there’s a top-10 pick at left tackle and they’re covered at right tackle with the signing of George Fant (more on him shortly). Hopefully Abe Lucas will also be able to return.
There’s clearly more to be done and that could come in the form of their top pick in the 2024 draft. However, you can’t look at the Seahawks in their current form and say they haven’t committed resource to the trenches.
In the past it was very different. Remember the days where they were paying a fortune to Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, while still drafting Jordyn Brooks in round one? Then they spent a huge amount of money on Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs, not to mention the draft capital used on Adams.
Meanwhile, the team struggled up front on both sides of the ball.
The Seahawks should be applauded for finally, seemingly, changing their personnel tactics. They are now following the rest of the league and seeking value and versatility at safety. They haven’t felt the need to panic at linebacker and spend a lot of money for average output — which is what they’ve been getting.
I think people have overreacted to the Ravens’ success with Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton and tried to make it seem like a huge new trend was developing. Based on Seattle’s moves so far, the man who led Baltimore’s defense last year doesn’t agree.
I’m sure if the Seahawks could acquire a Smith or Hamilton, they would. Jordyn Brooks and Patrick Queen weren’t Smith. Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams weren’t Hamilton. You have to play the cards you are dealt. In this instance, that meant re-signing Leonard Williams — a good defensive tackle — and now looking for value at linebacker and safety.
The Seahawks can add talent at safety and linebacker in the draft
I’ve seen a lot of people saying this is a bad class at the two positions and that’s a lazy way of looking at it. There aren’t any sure-fire first round picks, that’s for sure. There are good players set to be available though in a range where the Seahawks are likely to be in the market.
There are seven really appealing safeties that I’ve seen projected anywhere from rounds 2-5 — Tyler Nubin, Javon Bullard, Malik Mustapha Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, Jaden Hicks, Kitan Oladapo, Dominique Hampton and Cole Bishop. Some of these players would be positively exciting if they are selected. Mustapha reminds me a lot of Budda Baker. Nubin is tremendously rounded and a ballhawk. Bullard hits like a ton of bricks and has great range. Taylor-Demerson is an elite athlete with fantastic closing speed and he packs a punch. Hicks is very versatile and savvy, Oladapo is an all-rounder with size and Bishop’s testing hints at solid upside. Robinson managed a complex role at Washington, is flying way under the radar and could be a steal.
At linebacker, it’s not impossible that the Seahawks trade down from #16 and acquire a pick that puts them in range for one of Payton Wilson, Junior Colson or Edgerrin Cooper. I don’t think they need to do that though. Trevin Wallace is tremendously fun to watch and plays with speed, intensity and range. Cedric Gray is a very solid player and can cover and run-and-chase. Jeremiah Trotter was disappointing at the combine but clearly has instinct and talent, while Nathaniel Watson is a sack-machine who plays with an old-school edge. Ty’ron Hopper is tough and consistent and UTEP’s Tyrice Knight is going to Seattle for an official-30 visit.
Then you have a bunch of possible early day-three types — from Steele Chambers to Jaylan Ford to Tommy Eichenberg to J.D. Bertrand to Edefuan Ulofoshio. There are plenty of others.
It’s perfectly possible for the Seahawks to draft a couple of linebackers from this group if they wish, with the objective of developing them into competent starters. Big-money investment, or the use of high picks, isn’t necessary if you have the right coaching staff and the right talent evaluators.
Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw were former blog favourites and were drafted in rounds three and five respectively. They were identifiable based on traits and playing style. Demario Davis was a third rounder. Leo Chenal, another blog favourite, was a third rounder. Frankie Luvu was undrafted. Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright were drafted in rounds two and four.
It’s very possible to find contributing linebackers without spending a fortune — and that’s an argument we’ve often made.
So while there may not be an Earl Thomas or Luke Kuechly in the first round this year, there are still plenty of very capable linebackers and safeties in this class. It’s just a shame they’ve dropped 24 spots from the #78 pick, making it potentially harder to get stuck into the players listed above.
George Fant is a wise addition
The reaction to his contract was one of surprise online but the deal — worth up to $14m over two years — is about par for the course for a swing tackle. Look at the amount being paid to starting guards and tackles in free agency. For someone who might need to start for you at right tackle, this is about what you’d expect to spend.
Further to that, he has positional flexibility and experience. Now the Seahawks are adequately hedged for the draft and for Abe Lucas failing to properly recover from his knee trouble. Fant’s addition was absolutely critical. It’s no bad thing to have him as your worst case scenario as a starting right tackle.
Schneider called him a ‘utility’ lineman on the radio. It speaks to the nature of the signing — he’s a draft hedge and quality depth at multiple positions.
Noah Fant is also a wise addition
This is a draft class without a lot of quality at tight end. There are players who have traits to develop — but unlike linebacker and safety, there isn’t a long list of potential early starters.
Fant has always felt like a player with great potential but also great misfortune. It wasn’t ideal playing for a shambolic Denver in his first stop and the Seahawks under Pete Carroll never really worked out how to make best use of a tight end. Now, with Ryan Grubb in charge, he could become a consistent threat for the first time in his career.
Pharaoh Brown is a perfectly acceptable TE2. He grades well for blocking, he’s capable of making catches when targeted. They needed to add a starter and a depth player so it’s job done.
Nick Harris suggests they still have a type at center
As noted a month ago, the Seahawks, Ravens and Huskies have all been using smaller more athletic centers in recent seasons. I did wonder if that would change — especially given the LA Rams’ decision to revamp their running schemes and go for bigger linemen. However, the signing of Harris suggests otherwise.
Alternatively, they could’ve just signed a player who is familiar to Scott Huff and can provide depth, competition and versatility up front. Yet there’s a consistency here between three different regimes that have come together in Seattle.
It does make me wonder if it makes it less likely that they draft Jackson Powers-Johnson — but they could also move him to guard.
I like the Rayshawn Jenkins signing
I’ve always thought he was a very solid player who can do a lot of things at a decent level. Then I saw this statistic and it’s certainly encouraging and suggests, given where Jenkins is ranked compared to Kyle Hamilton, that it’s something Mike Macdonald perhaps pays attention to.
On top of that though, Jenkins comes across as a good leader. His mic’d up segments are fun and you can well imagine he’ll be a popular player with team mates. The Seahawks need some of that given the amount of experience that has now left the locker room.
Darrell Taylor re-signing feels like a shot to nothing
Taylor can be a dynamic edge threat but the Seahawks under Carroll never seemed to be able to hide his flaws against the run and just let him pin his ears back. Bringing him back with minimal guarantee of a roster spot is a savvy move. We’ll see if Macdonald can unleash his pass-rushing potential — something he definitely did with Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy last season.
This could be the fresh start Taylor needs. We can all see the talent is there. If it doesn’t work out, they can move on quite easily with barely any dead money.
It’s no gamble at all on a player with untapped potential.
On top of this, bringing back Michael Jackson and Artie Burns maintains Seattle’s cornerback depth.
No envy for any other moves
I can honestly say there hasn’t been a single other move that I’ve thought, ‘I wish the Seahawks had done that’. Like everyone else I had a list of players I wouldn’t have minded seeing in Seattle. Frankie Luvu and Jeremy Chinn were a couple of names on mine. However, amid a whole bunch of reckless spending and a lot of air time and online space taken up discussing free agency — it’s still true that winning teams are built through the draft.
It’s critical the Seahawks continue to avoid drafting for need and keep adding talent. However, as mentioned, eventually they are going to have to be pro-active in finding a long-term answer at quarterback. They can’t keep putting that off.
Of the players who departed for new teams, I don’t wish any of them had stayed. Jordyn Brooks might have his admirers online but he always felt ‘decent’ rather than ‘great’. It was time to move on from Bobby Wagner, despite Richard Sherman’s nonsensical rant about the Seahawks not showing loyalty because they haven’t signed Wagner ‘forever’ until ‘he’ has decided he’s had enough.
Damien Lewis was way too expensive, Colby Parkinson felt destined to try for a new start and Will Dissly’s contract was too rich for his production. Quandre Diggs’ play regressed in 2023 and there was no way they could justify his huge cap hit.
I’m surprised Drew Lock decided New York was better for him, given the toxicity of that franchise and the major sales pitch from the Seahawks. Perhaps he just felt the writing was on the wall when it was confirmed Geno Smith would definitely be staying (although I think that was up in the air for a while). Regardless, Lock was not going to be the future in Seattle.
What happens now?
I’m pretty sure at least one linebacker will be signed soon — perhaps ending this phase of the off-season for the Seahawks. Perhaps they’ll have enough money to bring in a cheap hedge at guard too. They’ve set up the last two drafts to avoid picking for need so it feels like they’ll do the same this year. It’s a good tactic.
EDIT — The Seahawks today agreed terms with former Bills linebacker Tyrel Dodson. He was PFF’s highest graded linebacker during the 2023 season with a 90.2 grade.
I think it now looks increasingly likely they’ll trade down from #16 to add stock. They should receive a lot of interest — with teams competing potentially for the offensive tackles, cornerbacks and the fourth receiver (Brian Thomas Jr). They might move down multiple times to really fill out their board.
I suspect part of the Howell trade was an acceptance that trading up isn’t viable for one of the consensus top-four quarterbacks. They might still have interest in Michael Penix Jr — but it’ll depend on his draft range. It’s not unrealistic to think he could go as high as 13th overall or as low as day two.
The Howell trade — and the compensation given up — could’ve been with the understanding that they’ll be able to add more day two stock after trading down.
I don’t think the Seahawks are in a position to do any more than they have so far. They have a rookie Head Coach and two rookie NFL coordinators. They are having to install new systems across the board and it’s fair to expect there will be growing pains. It might be unintentional but a somewhat uneventful free agency could end up managing expectations this year — which won’t be a bad thing.
It’s a process and they’ve got to try and grow and develop the players they have while adding to their core. They need to start hitting on players who can be great, not just good or very good.
This year, this is all very understandable. It won’t be for much longer though. They can’t stick around in the murky middle of the NFL — eventually, they’ll need to be more aggressive to find the ingredients needed to produce a Championship caliber team — which mostly means identifying a franchise signal caller.
For more thoughts on the Sam Howell trade and Seattle’s off-season so far, check out my latest video below:
If the Hawks trade back… I like IOL Graham Barton, LB Edgerrin Cooper, and of course Michael Penix in the 20’s.
Rob what do you think of Michael Barrett as a Day 3 LB? A lot of Michigan fans rate him over Colson. And MM coached him in 2021.
Great article thx
He’s interesting. Dude can cover and is more of a Mike LB than Patrick Queen. I can still see them target someone like Isaiah Simmons to be the Will.
Interesting signing. On the field he’s as good a FA LB available this offseason.
Wonder what the numbers are.
Fantastic player, my top LB this cycle.
Wonder what the compensation was.
I think now they can find a WILL lb — which is easier to find.
My prayers answered. This is a home run. He was the one outside free agent I was really clamoring for. Happy happy!
Great article, Rob. You’re a machine.
I stated it in the previous thread, but I grimaced on the Howell trade when I first heard it. After looking closer, and for several of the reasons you mention here, I think it makes sense. Do I love it? No. Do I hate it? No. I think you’re right that a trade down from #16 is almost guaranteed, but they can still go BPA if someone they have rated as a Top 10 faller lands in their lap.
All in all, they got at least a serviceable backup with NFL starter experience for a dirt cheap cap hit, which is primary concern right now. That’s a win. There’s more upside than downside here, even if you dismiss the yokels who think we just landed our own Brett Favre.
For the trade in itself, I love it. It’s a very baseball type of trade. You trade for control and cheapness.
I understand why some would not be a fan though. Like Rob said, it sort of pushes the QB elephant down the road a little bit.
Great call – this totally feels like a baseball deal. I’d rather kick the QB can down the road another year than reach this year. At least now they have some breathing room and can make a rational decision, rather than taking a QB flyer in desperation during a year where we have precious few picks to work with.
Seattle might be reading the tea leaves and have determined that 4 of the top QB will be gone by pick #12. With their preferred pick gone, this frees them up to go BPA. Imagine if a top WR, TE or Edge player fell into their lap. Every stinking year this happens, now Seattle can take advantage of an unexpected slide.
I’ve been saying it for weeks. Quinyon Mitchel should be considered here if he’s there.
I agree, Rob is a machine. Love his insight and great writing!
I will say, being a Wolf disciple, how can John Schneider not like a Howell?
Quality.
elite comment sir
:rimshot:
My cap is doffed, sir!
This is about the third time in the last week you’ve won the internet for the day
Rockin’ geoff
Geoff’s killing it
But will he survive?
Duck!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJVsUMKftMo
Touche. Had me fooled at first hahaha.
Well, hell. I’m not a complainer. I’ve been on board and excited to see what the new regime can do. I mostly still am. Now we acquire a backup QB and lose net draft capital in the process. Not a QBOTF in all likelihood. I am less optimistic about the 2024 draft now.
I wonder if passing on Howell was Carroll overriding Schneider?
Robstradomus strikes again!
Interesting thought about JPJ — maybe he’s BPA and they take him to use at OG.
I was thinking same thing. I think Carroll wanted to avoid a QB controversy pretty badly. There’s a difference between getting Lock as part of the RE trade and drafting a QB once heralded as a preseason top 10 guy like Howell was at UNC.
He was never a legitimate top pick. He was one of those guys that was pushed up because he played for so long so his name was known. So he was the easy preseason name to just stick on watch lists.
No matter what you think of Lock, talent wise there is a gap in favor of the guy that just left.
The Sam Howell move doesn’t stop us from drafting a QB either this year or next. But I do think it makes it less likely that we will spend a first round pick on a QB. Not impossible, just less likely.
If Geno plays for a year, then leaves, then Howell starts, we will be facing a free agency decision with Sam. So we definitely still need a longer term “cheap” option.
I was certain they were priming themselves for a QB but now I think it’s BPA all the way.
FYI about the alternative:
Seems expensive. Curious to see what we gave Dodson.
I’m so down on Howell, I’m going to have to ignore it, the move makes so little sense to me.
The Howell trade does have echoes of the Favre trade, who’s is something I thought Schneider might try to emulate – just not for Howell.
Howell is getting slobbered over…might need to take a break for a couple weeks.
You love the Dodson signing, yes?
Good chance the Howell trade freed up the money to allow them to sign him. They saved 4m+ a year on backup QB.
The Dodson signing is waiting on me seeing the contract, love the fit as a player.
I do understand the angst of those who see it as we just gave up yet more draft capital to obtain a scrub. Still, better to pay Sam Howell a million dollars to hold a clipboard than to pay Russell Wilson $38 million to go away. At least we have that going for us.
I am processing.
I need to separate the move from those that are anointing Howell as the QBotF
It makes sense, cheap backup, and maybe they grab a WB next year if the prediction of 5 R1 QBs proves true that is more likely.
I actually saw a decent amount of Commanders games. Howell isn’t perfect but he offers a little more than most fans think. More athletic than most think. For him to be the backup is fine and the right role for him right now. It’s a very baseball type of trade.
Rob is definitely Howling after this trade. 😀
But more seriously, I like it. Young QB with some starting experience.
4M bucks cheaper than Lock…. yes a swap of picks, but no loss of picks overall.
Before the disastrous last season in CFB, was talked about as a top QB in his draft year.
Kid just needs a competent OL … unlike in Washington with that bad offense and OL in 2023.
Now we don’t have a 2nd or a 3rd. Cool.
For a backup qb?
If the Seahawks flop this year JS is going to be on the hot seat, if he’s not all ready.
Not inspired.
We have #81 (round three) still
This feels similar to the Charlie Whitehurst trade. Throwing darts and turning over stones to see what you can find, and perhaps spending too much in the process. At least it appears obvious now they know they need to find a franchise QB again. And at least Howell is certainly better than Charlie ever was. I think.
And Washington is definitely drafting Daniels now. Feels weird though they signed Mariota for 6 mil when they could’ve just kept Howell. They got a ton of cap space though. They just spend 5 million to move up into the 3rd round.
CW also signed a 2 year 8 million contract after being traded to Seattle. That’s the big difference here.
The amount of money and risk here is minimal, which is why I really really like it.
A part of me would much rather see Howell start next year than Geno, and I’m not sure if it’s the rational or emotional part. Most of all I want a completely open competition.
In the John Schneider interview, I find it interesting he rattled off these QBs and in this order:
“…same age as Daniels, Rattler, Penix and a year younger than Bo Nix”
That is an interesting catch, maybe a tell who knows! Didn’t realize Penix was the youngest of the 4 though.
Well, after Carroll was fired, many of us said we were looking forward to the franchise no longer being boring/stuck in a rut. I think we got our wish folks.
Yes and no. I also hoped they’d stop making stupid trades and idiotic free agent signings.
Pretty bummed we gave up pick 78, but it was clear to me we didn’t have draft capital to move up for one of the top 4 QBs: I feel certain 4 will be gone by pick 12.
But two meh QBs doesn’t excite me. I like Lock better than both Geno and Howell combined.
Howell has guts, his arm is stronger than I thought before watching him nearly beat us last year, and maybe with good coaching he’ll improve. But 21 turnovers and 65 sacks….plus his poor decisions in big moments…that stuff isn’t exciting.
Similar to how I feel. I thought they bungled it badly when they chose to pick up Geno’s contract, thinking he had trade value. Big risk. Stupid risk. Or if they just planned all along to start him, I think it’s just plain stupid.
We could have had Lock for around $5M, opening up almost $20M in cap space, without losing any draft capital. Then draft a QB, perhaps Rattler in round 3, and sign another veteran free agent who’s available without losing compensatory picks. This makes zero sense to me. I don’t see anything in Howell that’s better than Lock.
This all feels like very similar to the start of the PacJS era. Patience, hedges, and value over reaches for need and big splashes.
Can’t complain. Especially if there was competition for Howell.
Not seeing it. Feels like a total reach to me.
Some interesting stuff on Dodson.
Rob, you’re expressing disappointment that the Howell trade might mean the team is kicking QB can down the road another year. You had argued previously that if they think “their guy” is in the draft, they should do whatever it takes to trade up and get him. But I’m just not sure that John Schneider believes in that philosophy and I think he would rather try to get a QB he likes at a reasonable price.
And the reason to me is simple – you can never be sure someone is the guy. We’ve seen countless teams trade a king’s ransom to move up, 49ers for Trey Lance, Rams for Jared Goff, Eagles for Carson Wentz, Bears for Mitch Trubisky, NY Jets for Sam Darnold, Bears for Justin Fields. Those trades were all complete disasters that can set you back several years (unless you get extremely lucky somewhere else, Brock Purdy).
Has it worked out for some other teams? Yes, the Bills for Josh Allen and KC for Mahomes.
But overall, the hit rate is pretty low. And I think (and hope) Schneider is smart and humble enough to know that no matter how much he thinks someone might be the guy – it’s just almost impossible to be that much smarter than the rest of the entire league and GMs. So no need to gamble a king’s ransom.
I think he has the philosophy of have your targets in mind – and if they pop up for a reasonable value (and not a king’s ransom), then pounce. If Schneider liked Penix or McCarthy, I don’t think the Howell trade significantly changes the odds that the Seahawks draft them. I just think Schneider has a reasonable draft pick # in his mind that he’s willing to spend on them, and if they’re not there at that number, so be it.
The NFL road is littered with the carcasses of GM’s that thought they were smarter than everyone else and were willing to gamble a King’s ransom on “their guy.’
I honestly hope this is not John’s thought process.
If they are there great if not so be it?
I actually think there’s a glimmer of evidence to suggest he doesn’t think this way. The Wilson for Allen trade. After batching tge 2017 draft if John had his way he would have started over with Allen the following year.
Truly one of the great what ifs in hawks lore.
I don’t think we know exactly how serious John Schneider was about Josh Allen besides “liking him”. Allen got drafted #7 overall – so if he really actually preferred Allen over Wilson, he could have offered Russell Wilson to the teams that picked #2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 and still got Allen.
That said, it’s probably all theoretical and we won’t know since I assume Pete Carroll shutdown any chance of that.
And as a second counterpoint I’d point out Mahomes. If Schneider was so sure that Mahomes was “the guy”, you’d trade up and get him. But from the stories we’ve seen – Schneider was more value oriented. He was not going to give into mania to get him, but if Mahomes was around in the late first round, he was open to drafting him (despite having Russell Wilson).
Article:
“According to the aforementioned report from Henderson, this included the powers that be in the Pacific Northwest eyeing former Texas Tech star Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 NFL Draft. Mahomes was ultimately selected No. 11 overall by the Chiefs that spring. But if he had been available to Seattle later in the first round, the team would’ve pounced.”
You could be right overall.
If John truly believes value is the play then he probably shouldn’t be the gm.
One team traded up for Mahomes and is still in its dynasty and the other team is us.
Meanwhile the hawks are more than willing to spend resources everywhere for at times no reason. Like multiple trades for players on their last year of a contract.
As I said to Rob, I think there’s a lot of luck and volatility involved in which QBs are hits and which are gigantic misses.
I’m not an NFL GM or scout………… but I don’t know how sure one could be that someone will be a home run after seeing the stats of all the other GMs drafting complete busts.
Maybe this is where someone would say, a GM should have the courage of their conviction. I come with a finance background, so I guess I prefer to just keep stacking value. Ie. Trade your 1st round pick this year for a 1st rounder and 2nd rounder next year – and eventually you have enormous capital that you can get any QB you want.
But I suspect Schneider might be more aligned with that background than the gambler one.
Well, the Bills, Chiefs and Ravens felt convinced that they’d found the guy
I very much doubt John — who loved Allen and Mahomes — is unwilling to do the same
I mean, yes, the Bills, Chiefs and Ravens got lucky and hit. I could be wrong – but I don’t think they hit because those teams had uber geniuses as GMs/scouts and the long list of misses all had complete dummies running their teams. I think there is just a lot of luck and volatility involved.
So I listed 7 gigantic QB trade up busts, you listed 3 great QB trade up wins. So at a 70% bust rate, is it worth risking 3 first round picks (or whatever)? Versus just sticking to your guns and if they like Penix and he’s available at #16, then great, versus throwing in next year’s first and second round to make sure you Penix at pick #8?
I just don’t think we’ve seen a ton of evidence that Schneider thinks of gambling like that. But who knows, Pete obviously had him on a leash before so maybe we never got to see what Schneider would really do.
I think Howell offers a backup QB floor for at least 2 seasons and offers Seattle a cheap price for QB with the potential to be a future starter which is no different than drafting a QB day 2 or 3
Geno wont be here forever and if Howell has upside/ learns the ropes. i can see the floor rise as a game manager starter who doesnt have to throw it 40 to 50 times and has a strong running game.
I do like his arm strength (which is one of my main concerns the other Football IQ) and he has some snaps under his belt and maybe can develop
If Howell has Football IQ and or develop it, he can elevate his game to be a starter in 2 years and the Seahawks can draft another QB by then as a franchise QB
trading down 3rd to 4th and 5th to 6th small risk and probably comparable as a scratch and win.
so if Howell went back to the NFL draft this upcoming season where would he rank? Bo Nix territory? or Michael Pratt territory?
Trading down from 16 is most likely and Seahawks currently have 7 picks and my guess will have 9 to 10 total picks when the draft is completed + Sam Howell
i am more than ok with this path
Feelings about free agency so far:
Transactions I like
– Fant x2
– Jenkins
– Williams
– Dodson* (pending contract details)
– No commitment Taylor re-signing
Transactions I am “meh” on
– Howell trade
– Harris signing
– Burns re-signing
Things I don’t like
– Lack of interior OL
I am fine with Howell on the cheap as the backup, but the compensation to get him doesn’t feel great. I glad they avoided the massive guard contracts and the draft has good options but I am nervous right now about the interior OL.
Overall I am pleased with how free agency has gone. A solid B grade for me.
I also think it’s still a strong possibility that the Seahawks are hoping to trade Geno Smith during training camp if a veteran QB of a contending team gets injured, and willing to give the Seahawks like a 3rd round pick for Geno.
It would be a decent plan, trade for Howell (albeit at a overpay), draft a rookie in the 1st or 2nd round, and then trade Geno in training camp if that opportunity arises, and let Howell and the rookie battle it out.
For people wanting some Dodson content, see the attached.
This is the type of player that we’ve been wanting for years to deal with the 9ers/Rams.
https://x.com/new_era72/status/1768435253834633700?s=46&t=QnF6gJmc6OM1fOYBLmUnjg
Whole Commies fans are popping bottles over winning a trade, Bills fans are actually apoplectic over losing Dodson.
We also hosted DB K’Von Wallace on a visit.
I remember being interested in him coming out:
Has anyone heard anything on Conor Williams status?
Honestly, I’m watching Howell’s games on YouTube, particularly the ones where he struggled. There is still a lot to like. He makes some poor decisions when he doesn’t quite understand the coverages, but overall he throws some really nice passes. He seems very similar to Drake Maye, wothout the headscratching lapses in accuracy. I’m excited to see if he can take off with Grubb.
Video thoughts on the Sam Howell trade and what it means for the draft:
https://youtu.be/aWxjGDdifX0?si=5khUh5XyOhnR4jhg
Rob,
Are you done with the podcast and just putting everything on YT?
For now, yes. I make no revenue out of Apple or Spotify but I do on YouTube
I agree with the idea that Howell allowing a trade back to pick up a 2nd or 3rd round pick kinda helps make up for the loss of the 3rd rounder. Getting a QB let’s he draft board come to us and enables hitting on BPA, which has worked well the last 2 seasons.
JS even said it! Prioritizing the trenches!
He also said they wanted to keep Jordyn Brooks, which is interesting…
https://twitter.com/MikeDugar/status/1768437928949403786
I thought that answer was just a way of getting out of the question
If they really wanted Brooks, they wouldn’t have just hoped he’d still be there 2-3 days into FA
I’m really depressed and a bit disgusted with Seattle’s recent moves. Everything seemed great until, like, yesterday. We had four compensatory picks likely coming our way and we hadn’t made any stupid moves. Now we’ve been signing guys who didn’t need to be signed, losing compensatory picks, and now this move to acquire Sam friggin Howell?
I have to say I’ve lost faith in Schneider. It’s seeming clear that Carroll was not the entire problem. These moves seem short sighted and dumb. We’ve picked up no one we really needed at this point. No one for whom we couldn’t have found a reasonable substitute later and at lower cost. Another year of Geno under center with Howell as his backup does not inspire me to show up at the stadium. I was hoping they’d let Geno walk and resign Lock. That would have been so much more interesting. Then draft a rookie and maybe pick up a veteran free agent at minimal cost. I don’t get overpaying for a guy who isn’t the answer. Like so many of Seattle’s moves in past years, it seems desperate and unnecessary and idiotic.
I don’t really understand this take…
Jumbo/goal line package going to be insane with Fant as 6th OL, Brown at TE, and Nick Harris at fullback…!
Grubb will line those guys up then flip it to DK on an end around.
It’s gonna be a an entertaining year.
Rob, just wondering how much of Howell’s 2019 and 2020 tape you watched when evaluating him as a prospect? Haven’t dug into it myself so was just curious.
If we trust Schneider’s evaluation of QBs then perhaps there’s something there that he sees that we should trust. How do we know Jon didn’t want to draft Howell earlier but Pete nixed the idea?
Macdonald got a first hand look at Howell when Baltimore and Washington had their combined practices and scrimmages in pre-season last year. Howell supposedly did very well against them, so perhaps there’s also something that he sees, along with his fit as a vertical threat in the Grubb offense.
I’m really excited about the trio of George Fant who’s played plenty of 6th o-lineman, Pharoah Brown who Schneider referred to as a top 2-3 blocking TE, and then Nick Harris who played some fullback last year and looked like a boulder rolling downhill. (even if prefers center per the KJR interview)
While it wouldn’t surprise me if Harris starts and Fant’s most important role is swing tackle, Grubb could be cooking up some pretty cool jumbo package stuff.
Second play is Harris walloping a linebacker to open the road to the endzone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RU1Cx5dpd9Q
I didn’t realize Harris was a free agent, he took the former UW center roster spot I was convinced would go to Coleman Shelton! Feel like I’m still 50% right…
Great write up Rob.
Still bummed about the Howell trade, in reality it was a bit like the Williams trade – trading draft picks for cap relief, it just bugs me that Washington wanted this guy off their roster but if there was some sort of bidding war then I guess John did what he felt he had to. I know we just exchanged picks but it involved pretty big drops in the pecking order and especially losing that 3rd will hurt. Guess between cap constraints, not having a viable backup QB and losing Lock they did what they had to do.
I think the odds of us finding a game changed/wrecker went down after this though. It all but cements a trade down if not two or three trade downs really, so losing out on pick 16 and probably anything else high enough to grab a player that has a better shot at becoming elite, could happen but lessens the odds for sure I’d say. Also makes it harder to trade back up to grab a player when you have what we do for day three picks.
But overall really appreciating the change in how things are run/how the roster is constructed. John was talking about how they had to take the emotion out of wanting to keep Brooks but letting him go (from article in Seattle Times) – thank goodness Pete is out of the picture!
Great stuff, Rob. Thanks.
I think it’s worth pointing out that Macdonald also saw Howell in 2023, in the preseason, in what was probably Howell’s best showing.
I liked Howell more than you in 2022. I saw Garnder Minshew+. He’s not going to be Josh Allen.
But we should probably prepare ourselves for the possibility that Schneider and Macdonald are comfortable enough with him that they’re willing to give him a look as a future starter. He’s a scrappy dude with good feet and deceptive athleticism.
Rob, watching Schnider this offseason is like watching Wire In The Blood. Hopefully the conclusion will make sense.
Agree with absolutely everything you said, Rob!!
I was thinking earlier today that with no 2nd rounder that Seattle for sure were going to trade down to make up for that. But now without one of their 3rd rounders, they absolutely must IMHO.
This draft is well famous for a massive cliff after day 2. And now Seattle just traded away one of only 3 valuable picks it held. Most people say day 3 picks this year might as well be UDFA. I think Seattle must trade away its 1st round pick to attain multiple round 2 and 3 picks. And it would also trade all of its round 4-7 picks for any possible round 3 picks. Trade DK while you are at it, if it can get you a late 2nd or early 3rd. I would say trade Geno, but I fear nobody wants him at his massive contract number.
John Schneider really bungled this draft by trading away the club’s 2nd round pick for an old DT. But now he gives away a 3rd for, as Rob has stated many times, poor man’s Baker Mayfield?!! Yes I know it was a pick swap. But I am sorry. I do not think there will be any legitimate impact players left by the 4th round. Meh, ugh, and such. It’s on Schneider to make up for his mistakes. Time to make more trades!
The 2024 Draft compensation doled out for Sam Howell to replace Drew Lock – and his would-be $6,000,000 salary (which will likely net a 5th or 6th Comp pic next year) – is Only approx $1,000,000 (slightly more next year).
We get a worth-while QB2 for cheap. Cheap-Cheap actually, as this $10M-ish 2-year savings will be spent in other areas. Part of its benefit is what this allows the team to accomplish. Plus, after his stint with the Seahawks, any free-agent contract he will likely receive may net a Comp pick for the 2026 draft.
What about the picks?
According to the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart, the total draft haul the Commanders received (119 points) was the equivalent of the first pick in the 4th-round (116 points).
Is a 23-year-old QB with roughly the same physical talents (and NFL ‘report card’) as Drew Lock – with the benefits listed above – a good trade? At the cost of an early 4th-round choice? – Heck yeah!
Plus, this does Not keep the team from drafting a QB – this is simply a good hedge-bet…
More I look at the Howell pick I think its kinda brilliant.
1. We now pay our back up qb a TOTAL of $2mln over the next 2 seasons. We would have paid Lock what, 7mln this year alone? A comparable back up at least 5mln? So net net we are likely saving at least $8-12mln alone with a legitimate backup who can step in and start any day. Is this the money we are using on Dodson?
2. This money we are saving can go towards one stud/key player or 2 respectable depth piece-starter level guys. This is tremendous leverage and it only cost you 20 slots in the 3rd and 5th, both of which we now likely make up in later trades on draft day.
3. This provides great leverage on trading Gino if need be. It also gives us a young QB who has shown he can hang in the league with nothing but upside on the super cheap. We did this without giving up ANY picks!
All in all I can see this move as really smart and a good risk to take.
Now how much are we paying Dodson???
This is a very well-written paragraph.
Wow, what JS said about the guard position is interesting. On Wyman and Bob. “They get overdrafted, they get overpaid”
As a general statement I would agree.
I look at this little differently, MacDonald said in presser he wants field stretching plays & a solid run game, Pennix, for me is ideal, perhaps he wants whoever at #11, #12 or #13 to think they can trade into the back end of rd #1 and get Pennix instead of grabbing him at #11, #12 or #13. I think JS is playing chess to get his QB this yr without using any future assets for the re tool. I really like the move, it was Denver who pushed the price up on us. Cheers