Russell Wilson, according to Colin Cowherd, fancies a trade to the New York Giants.
Of course he does.
I bet he’d like a nice, new, league-leading contract extension even more.
On January 25th I wrote a piece titled: ‘The Russell Wilson contract saga is coming‘.
It was an attempt to preempt what was to follow.
Contained within the piece was a reference to Wilson’s last negotiation with the Seahawks in 2015:
“Instead of a formality it ended up being a long, protracted saga — played out through the media.”
This is what we’re seeing again. Prior to the Super Bowl, Adam Schefter touted a slice of non-news about the lack of talks between the Seahawks and Wilson. Now the talk in the ‘agent world’ is Wilson wants to move New York because of Ciara and stuff.
Within the next few weeks we’ll probably hear from Wilson’s agent directly. Mark Rodgers will appear on a radio show or podcast. Just like last time.
It’s happening again.
It’s all posturing. The media speculation and future articles. The tweets and radio appearances. It’s all an attempt at a public negotiation. Apply a bit of pressure. Lean on fan reactions. Keep this topic in the media.
None of it matters really.
Take this Giants scenario for example. They’d have to be willing to give up a kings ransom for this to be possible. Three first round picks might not even be enough. Then they’d have to be willing to pay Wilson an enormous contract — one that would likely have to be agreed before any trade is finalised (not easy). The Seahawks would have to be willing and prepared to do the deal and would need a realistic solution at quarterback. Acquiring the #6 overall pick might not be anything like enough to make this attractive. Are you guaranteed to get one of the two best 2019 QB’s at #6? No.
So a deal with the Giants has so many hurdles to clear.
You’re going to hear so much white noise over the coming weeks, months and maybe even years. So let’s cut through the BS and get to what it all comes down to…
— Kirk Cousins’ use of the franchise tag has changed the NFL indefinitely. Most players don’t fear the tag any more. They’re embracing it. Cousins has made a lot more money than Wilson because he milked the tag and became a free agent. Wilson can rightly ask for what he’s due on the tag — $110m guaranteed between 2020-22. I think it’s fair to suggest the Seahawks are unlikely to grant that request.
— How willing is Russell Wilson to compromise on a deal with Seattle? And how can the Seahawks gain any leverage in these talks when they’re competing against the tag?
— The Seahawks have to start planning for the worst case scenario. They need to draft a quarterback to develop as a potential replacement. If they have to trade Wilson because an extension isn’t possible, they need to be prepared and ready — whether that’s this year, next year or in 2021. You plan now, not after the deal.
— Any outcome is possible so start to embrace it. This will be a highly aggressive, hostile business negotiation. The Seahawks might have to look at their options. Hopefully it doesn’t come to the point where a trade is necessary. Is it possible though? Yes. But so is an extension or Wilson playing on the tag. Yet we’ll see more of this talk in the media. More speculation. It appears keeping this ‘story’ in the media will be an objective for Wilson’s party.
This topic will dominate the off-season and possibly next off-season too. It’s not going anywhere. It’s a major conundrum for the team to solve.
I wrote this piece about the Seahawks and Will Grier in January and this piece about Kyler Murray in December. They might draft a quarterback early this year. It might not be their first pick but it certainly could be at some point on day two.
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I don’t thought Cowherd was implying Seattle would let RW walk to the Giants rather than tag him which is even more insane than trading him and pretty incredibly lazy speculation on Cowherd’s part.
I can totally see the wife wanting to be in the big apple. I can see RW wanting it just as much. I think he very much wants to be the celebrity QB. I would also expect PC/JS to hold onto their guns and play the franchise game until either they find a QB to move on towards or a trade that blows them away. They aren’t going to let RW walk out of here no matter how much the pop queen wants a bigger market to live in.
Russell Wilson is the lone franchise QB (playing consistently over 80% of the time) drafted over the last 7 years. Of course, the asking price will be steep. We are talking about multiple first rounders, and probably other forms of compensation.
So, #6, #37, #102, #132 + 2020 R1 + 2021 R1, in a “Giants 2019” scenario.
The thing is, the Giants owe a lot to Manning, and they will let him end his carrer in style (look what the media did to McAdoo!). They have a tied record for the second half of last season, and are in a good position to get Kyler Murray or Dwayne Haskins.
There’s word out there that the Giants aren’t into Murray because of his height. If true, it also could very much stand to reason that they wouldn’t be even into RW in the first place.
Rob
If Kyler Murray is on the board at #6 and the Giants call offering #6 + the extra 4th and 5th round picks they have this year as well at 2020,2021 first round picks what do you think JS would do?
I was in the camp that the Hawks should not even consider trading Russ and do what it takes to resign him but a scenario like that would make me have to give it a second thought.
I think this roster is at least one more off season from being a legit SB contender. They could use cap space to extend Clark, Reed and Wagner then even add another pass rusher if they wanted. If Murray is as dynamic as I think he will be then by 2020 this team could be legit SB contenders again with an A+ plus defense, power run game and a dynamic big play threat QB.
Still think keeping Russ is the best option but I am not as certain as I once was.
Also not so sure how well received this kid of posturing by Wilson and his agent will be received by the Hawks fan base. They might be surprised with the reaction.
I think it depends on the state of negotiations in April.
JS will obviously know the state of negotiations at that point better than anyone, if there was a hint of a stalemate I would strongly consider doing that trade.
If RW postures it will validate all the rumors and murmurs we have heard about the locker room viewing him as a fraud.
How? That seems like quite the stretch. Every player postures for a bigger contract, that doesn’t make them frauds in the slightest or indicate what the locker thinks of them. Seems like a projection here.
Come on now. This is a business negotiation. Quit trying to make it emotional and stop with the rumor mongering.
I think this is really simple.
a = Chance to KM be successful (QBR, stats, SB, etc)
b = Chance Russ will be successful in the next x years
c = impact of the plus draft picks
d = impact of the plus cap space
(a + b + c) – d = x
If x is bigger than 0 (assuming either variable are weighted or uses the same measures) then the trade should be made.
But to make it more simple:
The question is: How much Murray posing as a risk for the next 3-5-7 years to win an SB?
If he’s a huge question mark, while we have a really solid opportunity to win an SB with Russ (even with CAP hit and no additional picks) then don’t trade him
If Murray seems legit and the FO is not sure how likely to even go to an SB with Russ, especially with limited draft resources and big CAP numbers, then trade him.
This is really easy in theory, but thinking about all the possibilities is hard af.
How much impact could we get from the +2 first round picks for the next years?
What would +30 mil or so mean to the franchise?
With Russell’s salary can we sign Reed, Clark, Bobby? If not who would get the axe? How much would that impact the franchise?
If Russ stays and starts to decline for some reason what could the team do? How much would that impact them?
If they draft Murray and Murray is a bust what could be their strategy for that scenario?
If Murray is a bust how much time would they need to recover?
How does the 2021 draft class look like if Murray is really bad? Who might become available?
Can they plug-in Murray day 1? Do they need a bridge veteran QB?
Trading Russ is an exciting scenario with many opportunities. But it’s a risky one. Too risky. This franchise is in a good place. They don’t need a major rebuild.
Unless Russ goes totally crazy and wants out, I really…really-really-really doubt they’ll trade him before PC retires.
I think it’s more likely that they’ll pay Russ like 38 mils APY than they’ll trade him (unless Russ really wants out, but that’s unlikely).
PCJS love Russ. Russ is their ideal QB (smart, humble, good soldier, fine with the run first, can make nice throws, has no issues, can be marketed well). This FO is risk-averse. They think their roster is almost set for an SB run. JS is a businessman. Yeah…give him like 3 first, 3 seconds, 3 third round pick and he’ll give you Russ without a question. But unless something really ridiculous comes up, it’s a no deal for sure.
You have been predicting just this sort of negotiation for some time Rob.
You have spoken about Grier as a potential Day Two pick. Do you see any possibility of a trade up scenario to make a run at one of the top QBs this year?
No — they simply don’t have the stock
This makes too much sense, for every reason (plus the new thought that RW himself wants to make the move to NYC – making potential negotiations that much easier).
PC wants to run the ball, play dominant defense to win championships. Whether we agree or not, that is his formula. He doesn’t need a HOF QB to win. He doesn’t need to pay premium $s to a QB to win.
The alternatives to trading RW are all bad for the team. Waiting past now is bad, like not trading Earl was bad. Franchising too expensive, and may cost other players (Clark, for instance). Letting him walk is bad, getting nothing in return. Now is the time to cash in that 3rd round pick into lots of new draft capital.
Keeping and paying RW will hamper the team in the coming years from fielding the kind of defense PC wants. And as has been pointed out, RW has the leverage. He doesn’t need to sign an extension. He can wait out the Seahawks one way or another.
I was the biggest (literary the most vocal) supporter of RW when he was drafted, predicted he would start his rookie year, and that he would be a good (I didn’t know he would be great) NFL QB. But now it’s time, for the sake of the team, and to provide another SB window, for him to go.
PC wants to coach hungry, young, talented players. Not older, potentially complacent, expensive ones. As Seahawk fans, we want to win championships, not pay gazillions to popular players at the expense of the greater team.
As for the Giants, they could include Odel in a trade (not that the Seahawks want him, or his salary) but as part of a trade somewhere else to provide 2 first round picks to Seattle this year, along with another next year, and whatever additional compensation Seattle can rustle for Russell.
Having said that, I don’t suppose PC/JS will do a deal for anything less than a shit-load of draft picks, and like in the case of Earl, may be unable to come to terms. That wouldn’t surprise me. They shouldn’t give RW away. But there is an opportunity here, and there is risk either way. Don’t do a deal and try to pay RW, limiting what you can do elsewhere condemning the team to barely making the playoffs, or trading him and failing to obtain even an average QB, dropping the team into the sub-mediocre.
Aside from what any of us think is best for the team, what do we think PC/JS will actually do? I don’t know, but I hope they think creatively and work out a good solution for the team to ascend again to championship status.
As for QB alternatives, besides the draft (although I would expect them to draft a QB if they traded RW) there are at least two interesting free agents: RG3 and Tyrod Taylor. Either of them (along with Lynch) would make for a good QB competition if they drafted Haskins, Fuller or someone else.
Is it an “American -football- player” that you are talking about that is named Fuller? Is he even a QB? Perhaps you mean QB-Finley????
Nope, just a brain fart on my part. Meant Murray all along.
“PC wants to run the ball, play dominant defense to win championships. Whether we agree or not, that is his formula. He doesn’t need a HOF QB to win. He doesn’t need to pay premium $s to a QB to win.”
No, no, no, no.
He wants to run the ball and play great defense. That doesn’t mean he plans to ‘get by’ at QB.
Rob, how is not needing a HOF QB equivalent to just “get by” at the position? I don’t think that, and I didn’t write that.
I would expect them to draft one of the top two QBs in the draft, preferably Fuller, who that can probably get at 6 even after trading down.
I would expect them to draft a top QB prospect with the possibility of 5 years of club control at a reasonable annual salary.
As for the FA QBs, those would be bridge guys like Smith was in Kansas City, not long term options.
None of this makes sense if they decide Fuller or Haskins isn’t worth the risk. What I haven’t heard about Fuller is his character, intelligence, work ethic, etc. that would lead us to believe he will be more like RW and less like Johnny Football. He might be a great physical talent without having the character necessary to succeed in the pros.
It’s all a risk, no matter what. But the team is facing one certainty with trying to retain RW, a certainty that will surely lead to difficulties building a championship team, and the possibility (albeit with risks) that they can garner significant draft capital, reduce the strain on the cap, and obtain a potential league winner in someone like Fuller. For me, the latter option is the more exciting, and the one more likely to lead to championships. Recall that Seattle’s two SBs came in RW’s 2nd and 3rd year, before he was playing at the level he is now. The Seahawks featured in those years a historically dominant defense and one of the best (if not the best) running games in the league. That’s the formula. And again, it doesn’t require a Rodgers, Brees or Brady at QB.
Think Hawkssince77 makes a very compelling argument Rob. I’ve been an advocate of the idea myself on this blog. Either choice there is a lot of risk. Paying mega millions to an aging player who relies on their speed doesn’t make the most sense. I think if you have the opportunity to move first, then get a bounty of picks and look for the next qb. For Christ sake, the eagles won a super bowl with Nick Foles.. a lot of good young QBs have entered the league in the last few years. No player should account for such a large percentage of salary cap
It’s not compelling at all when people mix up a desire to run and play great defense with a take that the QB doesn’t matter. He does.
Rob, I don’t understand your assertion that I don’t think the QB matters. Of course it does. You need a good QB to compete. What I am asserting (and this you can argue with if you want) PC doesn’t need a great QB to win championships, and he doesn’t need to pay a QB what RW will be demanding.
Thus the risk of trading RW and seeking to replace him with someone who will be good at the position. Not great, not HOF worthy, but good. Top half in the league, not top five.
Hawksince77, I think the assertion that you don’t need a great QB to win championships is misguided. Personally, I think the 2018 LA Rams are a prime example. No they didn’t have the defense we hope to have, but they had an elite running offense led by a highly drafted QB. Yet the difference in that game, to me, was Goff didn’t make the plays needed to win. We can talk about stats and cap numbers all we want, or how we don’t throw enough to make RW “worth it,” but at the end of the day, RW is the type of QB who wins games. That really can’t be understated.
Good not great doesn’t give you a championship. Lets not forget that in 2013 RW won a lot of games in the 4th quarter. No wins in those games and we don’t get a 1st rd bye, and likely don’t win the super bowl.
Additionally, look at how many teams in the league are struggling at the position. Spending a high draft pick on QB isn’t a guaranteed recipe for success, and bridge quarterbacks are not a thing that leads to success. The teams with bridge quarterbacks were nowhere near contention this year. The Buccaneers were hamstrung by having a decent roster with a QB whose favorite target is the other team. Same for the Jags. Titans QB is hampered by injuries and hasn’t developed accordingly. Wentz has never started a playoff game. With RW we are at worst a 9 win team every year, and at best a super bowl team. Getting rid of a sure thing for a marginally better result is not a smart bet in my opinion.
Starhawk29,
My argument is based on PC’s formula for winning championships. RW wasn’t a ‘great’ QB in 2012 and 2013 when they went to the SB. He has ascended in the past few years to a consensus top 5 QB and the Seahawks have struggled to reach the NFC championship in those years.
Other teams have other approaches to the game. PC’s is very clear: run the ball, stop the run, play crushing defense, take deep shots on occasion. The team didn’t make the playoffs when it was the RW show.
And yes, trading RW is no sure thing in replacing him with a ‘good’ cheap QB, and getting the draft capital that would got with a trade and the additional capacity in cap space doesn’t guarantee that PC/JS would assemble another awesome defense. But that’s the recipe for another SB run in 2020 and 2021. Maintaining the status quo (not trading RW, letting KJ walk, going to the draft with only 4 picks) virtually guarantees continued mediocrity. They don’t have the cap space or the draft capital to significantly improve the defense, and in fact, it may regress in the next year or two, depending on what happens with Wagner, Reed, and Clark.
And this is an important point: the cost for keeping RW now will either be a massive extension, or costly franchise tags, or simply losing him to FA. In addition to those costs, you have to consider the opportunity cost of passing up on the draft capital a trade would bring. Regardless of what we think someone would give for RW, it’s likely to be a lot of premium picks. Those picks, and the additional cap space, would give PC/JS a lot of opportunity to revamp a defense that currently ranks towards the middle of the league. That’s not how PC rolls.
Hawksince77, I think you have some very valid points, and I do think this whole rotating QB system could work, especially with Carroll given his experience doing virtually the same thing in college. I just don’t think its the right idea for the hawks right now, primarily because we have the exception to the rule at QB. He has made too many clutch plays and won too many games to not be deemed worth it. We don’t win the NFC championship in 2013 if RW doesn’t drop a dime on 4th down to Kearse. Yes, Sherm made a great play after, but we would have lost anyway without him. To me that’s one of the rarest traits in the NFL and I would pay anything to make sure he’s on my roster.
Yes, RW will cost a lot, and our history does suggest that we would maintain mediocrity based on the last few seasons. There are, however, other factors contributing to that mediocrity, such as paying Sherm, Kam, Bennett, and a bunch of other players up until last year. Personally, I think this year will be very telling in that it could show us whether this rebuild will work.
My understanding of it is that PCJS want to keep Russ and maybe a few defenders like Bobby and Frank Clark, but continue to rotate the rest of the roster. Doing so, using late picks, UDFAs, and lower tier free agents will never lead to a top 5 or generational defense again. Believing it could would be absurd. However, a top 10 defense is realistic (look at 2011 for an example) and could be done cheaper. Throwing money from there into Oline would round off a roster, while using late rd picks for RBs and WR’s and trusting our OC and RW to make it work. Like I said, this season will be very telling in that regard.
Starhawk29,
Nice discussion, thanks, I appreciate it. And you are right: this coming season will tell us a lot about which direction the franchise is heading.
This could be posturing, or it could be the truth. In either case, the Seahawks leverage is exactly zero, because even franchise tagging will create serious issues, starting with saving not that much and ending in the locker room.
It’s paying the man, letting him go in FA, or trading him. Let’s see…
Letting him go in FA like they did with ET would cripple this franchise for years.
If they want to pay him, this whole debate is only a question of how much. Pretty much pointless, if it’s $38m per year, $40m or $42m. He will ask for a lot of cash. Personally, I’m okay with that. RW has brought us a SB plus another SB game, with a bit of tweaking he may lead us to another. But this can only work, if RW really LIKES to be a Seahawk. Bottom line, if this is no posturing, there will be no SB. I fear, this won’t stop the FO from tagging him until the end of PCs tenure.
This leaves trading as another, in case it’s no posturing only, viable alternative. I’m pretty sure, the Giants will not go for him this season, because they will end Eli’s career with style. But 2020 could be the year.
I think, we can learn from ET, how quick the franchise is loosing control over a situation perceived as safe. If we redo this in RWs case, it would similarly cripple the franchise. So, I would support any move, that keeps the franchise in control of the process. And, honestly, the only possible way I can think of is flying to Oakland, and try to strike a deal, this offseason.
Which brings us damn near Kyler M PLUS Will Grier to battle it out, plus allowing for keeping us being in the market for a great draft haul, opposed to lots of hope, we will make it with trading down with a meagre four picks.
I think PCJS will eventually keep Russell quite honestly. Like Rob says, it’s all white noise and posturing. We trade Wilson and we’re basically looking at at least one or two years of rebuilding to develop a new quarterback, and I don’t see Pete wanting that. In my opinion fans really understate the importance of a good QB while overestimating the damage of the dreaded ‘cap hit’ boogeyman.
Keeping RW is the safe, easy thing to do, one that will ensure you aren’t criticized by the fans, or the talking heads. And probably, for those reasons, the most likely.
Doing so, however, will put the Seahawks in a similar situation that Rodgers is facing, playing for a team that simply won’t support even the best at the position.
The Rodgers situation is far different from this one in my opinion. There’s a whole storm of issues there including Aaron’s age and health or lack thereof, a coaching clash, and a defense that keeps falling apart. I don’t think either teams avoid supporting their QB either. I think that’s a misinterpretation of our more run-focused system.
I am sure you are right. The clubs are very different, top to bottom.
It’s just a shame to see probably the best QB in the league playing at the moment (Tom Brady is still the GOAT, but over the entirety of his career) on a franchise that can’t seem to put together a functioning defense.
Wait a minute. The offense hasn’t been anything to write home about either. They usually look pretty bad in the first half. They couldn’t convert 11 third downs against Arizona.
If you really think Wilson is the best, why surround him with 2 million dollar linemen? What I find amazing is that he has survived for this long behind the offensive line they have given him.
There are plenty of things to work on – for both sides of the ball.
AlaskaHawk,
I was referring to Rodgers in this comment and the Packers. And you bring up a good point (about the Seahawks). We have seen the team with RW and a bad run offense (2017), and we have seen RW with a good run offense and a bad defense (2018). The results are not impressive.
The Seahawks were impressive with a all-world defense and a top running offense, and a second and third year RW. That’s the PC formula – not a QB-led offense that puts up 40 points a game with a defense that allows over 30 (anyone remember the Chargers with Fouts and Winslow? Holy crap they scored a ton, and their defense sucked).
I think you have an interesting take on the Cousins situation that played out. Coming off his 2015 breakout season Cousins was likely poised to land a great contract in free agency. That he was tagged doesn’t mean that was his prerogative – it was a way for the Redskins to maintain their QB at a suppressed market value with no risk. If he had the chance he would have gone to free agency because he would have gotten more than $19 million guaranteed. He would have done the same the following season because he would have gotten more than $23 million guaranteed. The reality is that the franchise tag severely limits the leverage of the player, and the Redskins used it because they had no intention of negotiating with Cousins in good faith.
When it comes to Russ, I don’t think the $43 million figure will provide him much leverage – there is realistically no way he would ever get paid that much in a single year, by any team. The $36 million is roughly the ceiling of what he could earn in a year, give or take a million or two (unless the salary cap absolutely explodes upwards). There really isn’t much pressure on the Seahawks from my view – the $33 million average salary they’d pay Russ over the next two years is pretty much his market value or just under it.
Also had to look it up out of curiosity – Russell Wilson has earned ~$2 million more in his career than Cousins.
Cousins gladly accepted those tags though. Didn’t hold out. Didn’t even threaten to. He embraced all three and made a fortune — thus showing other players what was possible. That’s the point I’m making.
The tag provides Russell with a ton of leverage. He’s due $110m guaranteed on three tags. So that will be his starting point and rightly so. Not sure how anyone can say it doesn’t provide him with leverage.
Kirk Cousins just signed a guaranteed contract worth $84m — after a couple of franchise tags. He’s earned way more than Wilson, who had a third round rookie contract followed by one deal worth $87m total.
He accepted the tags because it was his only option – he was a 4th round pick who had been a starter for one season. He couldn’t hold out or force a trade because he only just made a name for himself and he had made maybe $2 million thus far. He had to take the tag and then deal with the Redskins lowball extension offers – reportedly $53 million guaranteed over 4 years, no guaranteed money in the last two years. Cousins was even considering filing a grievance if a third franchise tag had been applied to him.
In the franchise tag scenario the player is assuming 100% of the risk – they can’t hold out because they won’t gain service years and thus can’t become a free agent, and also have to avoid suffering a career-altering injury or drop-off in ability. Technically, the player is only guaranteed what he is being paid in that given year since there is a non-zero chance he doesn’t get the franchise tag again. I think that point is being understated massively.
Theoretically Russ could get $110 million over three years. But ask yourself – would any team in the NFL give him $110 million guaranteed over three years? The Cousins deal is already one the Vikings likely regret. Imagine if they were paying him ~$10 million more a year. The Seahawks know this and that’s why they have the upper hand here. He’ll get his $110+ million but it will have to come over 4 or 5 years. And the benefit Russell gets by conceding is by locking in those future earnings now, and by securing a signing bonus.
And I guess technically Cousins is guaranteed another $58 million right now. But up to this point Russell has been paid more actual money, which was what I was alluding to.
Some players don’t just ‘accept’ tags. They hold out or don’t go to OTA’s or don’t sign until the last minute. Cousins signed his immediately.
You’re trying too hard if you can’t accept that Cousins has revolutionised the way players view the tag.
Rob, I’m sure the Seahawks would not like to make a commitment to Russ before the new CBA is signed but if they did could a 6 year 200 mil 120-140 gaurenteed contract make sense for both parties?
I think the CBA situation is overplayed. In what possible situation would the Seahawks be harmed by extending Wilson pre-CBA? Are the league going to cap earnings at quarterback?
If anything the cap will rise or go away completely. Either way, them paying Wilson isn’t a problem.
Doesn’t Russell want to be in L.A. not NYC – they have at least one other mansion located there.
One other significant variable has changed and that is Jody Allen will have the final say instead of Mr. Allen (RIP). In negotiations I’d posit she will be a bare knuckle brawler compared to Mr. Allen’s hands off approach. She won’t take any guff nor be pleased with these posturing attempts.
The primary focus should be on roster construction and whether paying Russell huge money hampers that. I personally would figure out the best schedule to move on from Russell. The sooner the better.
I think Paul was a lot more hands-on and in control than you think.
I doubt Ciara cares less where Russell plays. I think Wilson and his people just want us all talking about his future.
It was pretty telling how much involved Paul Allen was when Mike Holmgren told the story of how they lost Hutchinson on KJR radio in seattle.. it sound like he absolutely dreaded the phone call to try and explain how Ruskell messed that one up royally…
This perception is incorrect. Mr. Allen was not passionate about football nor the business of football. We all know he a ton of varied interests. So he delegated. The chain of command went McLaughlin to Kolde to Mr. Allen. Mr. Kolde was the hands on person – the guy in the weeds. And who is left in the shake-up following Mr. Allen’s death? None of them but Jody Allen.
He may have delegated day to day running to others but on the big calls he was the final call. 100%
Allen was really hands-on with the Trailblazers and their players. But he was a basketball guy. And that was a mistake (being so much in the management of the team, and being close to the players). I think with the Hawks he was first and foremost a businessman. No micromanagement, but if something was really wrong I think he stepped in.
I was going to post a tongue in cheek offseason plan that actually included this scenario. RW to the Giants for 3 #1’s and change. Then we’d trade Frank Clark to the Browns for another #1. Then we’d tag Earl Thomas and sign him to a 3 year deal only to flip him to Dallas for a 3rd RD (because Jerry wouldn’t do a 2nd of course). We’d sign a bunch of free agents on defense and then grab a “game manager” QB in hopes of duplicating our 2012-2014 run. I didn’t post it because it’s ridiculous and not helpful other than for a good chuckle. Then I see in the last couple days elements of this very scenario being mentioned by click baiters around the web. *sigh*
Russ is under contract through 2019 and is then tag-able. The real pressure is to get the other guys done this offseason to make sure there’s no bottle neck in 2020. If Clark, Reed & Wagner don’t get lock down extensions in the next 12 months then you are going to lose someone big.
That is a pressure. But if the RW talks are aggressive and not going anywhere — without any hint of a future deal — that changes things significantly.
Rob I have to give you credit you mailed this whole scenario well in advance. I think it is a really bad situation if Russ starts trying to negotiate this way posturing for a trade to get out of town. The QB has to be all in and lead the team. I have always been huge supporter of Russ and his toughness, durability and work ethic. Some of his antics off the field are corny and drive me nuts but he was a gamer and always showed up no matter how beat up he was. Always stayed positive and was on point with Pete’s message.
If he goes down this pay me or trade me path he will loose the locker room and fan base IMO. In that scenario he should be traded ASAP for max value. Hope it does not come to that but it is
Starting to look like it might.
If Murray is on the board at #6 I think I would pull the trigger on 3 #1 plus Oliver Vernon for Russ and use the cap space to extend Wagner, Clark and Reed.
You know.
It would be interesting if we drafted a QB who graduated transferred from a university in North Carolina to a school which starts with a W, showed up right before the season started, won his team over, took the starting job, and lead his team to an eleven win season, to develop under a guy who did exactly that.
I like Garner Minshew. He has stuff to work on. He needs to develop. But he also has a lot to like. And he should be available later than Grier.
The way he threw at the Senior Bowl, it’ll be a lot later. Was a difficult game performance to watch and exposed some of his flaws. I like Gardner and loved his season at Washington State. I’m not pinning any hopes on him being a prospective NFL starter though.
It wasn’t a good performance, but in fairness to Minshew, the offense at WSU is very much predicated on timing and exact route-running. Playing with new receivers, a new route tree, and receivers that may not be precise can be very difficult to overcome in a week. Especially when you’re splitting reps
Of his eight attempts 5 were drops on the receivers. Broadcasters were commenting on the concentration issues wrs were having. Even still, Minshew needs some work at the next level. Not the most athletic. But could be a serviceable backup
He does some things really well but needs work on his mechanics. Arm strength to make all the throws. He isn’t a “mobile QB” but he is definitely more athletic/mobile than Grier. Tape shows him making some nice plays and avoiding sacks with his feet.
I don’t see much difference between him and Grier. Picking between Grier in the third and him in the fifth is an easy pick for me.
Agreed. Maybe even the fourth or late third
Be interesting to see how the upcoming CBA talks play into this. The timeline being what it is (tag starting in the ’20 season and then the current CBA expires) what will the new CBA world look like? Impossible to answer but something PC/JS along with RW and his agent will all need to consider as things move along. Who knows if the tag will look anything like it does today?
I do not see the QB issue as a major issue at this point in time. I’m sorry, but i don’t.
To put the numbers in perspective – If RW were to agree to say 30M a year, the team would gladly sign it and it would be close to family discount. 33M a year (Rodgers is 32.5), would make him the highest paid QB in the NFL, would he reject such an offer?
The numbers game is about 3-4M a year between a happy team and a happy RW, it’s not that far apart.
The only reason the sides may not be able to come to terms is if the team is steadfast about not paying RW much over 30-31M but the tag will cost more or RW is looking for more then tag money.
As much as the tag takes the pressure of RW to get a deal done – IT DOES THE SAME FOR THE TEAM.
The tag is not a “guaranteed” multi year 110M contract. Each year is fully guaranteed once the player signs the tag but there are no future obligations beyond that year, no dead money, no injury guaranty, nothing.
If RW or his agent believe they can use it to get the team to pay significantly more than Rodgers numbers, the team practicably has an extension in hand for 2 more years beyond 2019 at 33M a year and an expensive option for a 3rd year. In NFL time-span, knowing you have control on you QB for the next 3 year is an eternity.
This situation may indeed drag things but that is because it is not a “clear and present danger” for team just as much as for RW.
Getting options at QB is always a great idea and if a good one presents itself they should go for it. They should do it because hitting on the most valuable position in the sport brings huge benefits not because the RW situation is something they should worry about.
The fact that some rumors started so early is not a play by the team. Those kind of rumors could only help an agent to stir up the pot. If RW’s agent felt he needed to get things moving it should give you a good idea which side feels the tag is helping their cause.
I hate to break it to you Eran — but it is a big issue. A very big issue. By far the biggest issue on the agenda right now and for the foreseeable future.
It won’t be about ‘only’ wanting to pay him $31m vs $34m. It’ll be, quite simply, Wilson saying he’s happy to roll with the tag and won’t sign for anything less than the money he can get, fully guaranteed, by playing year-to-year like Cousins. Seattle won’t pay that.
This is going to be a brutal, horrible negotiation. And Wilson’s people, so casually willing to drop this Giants link it seems, are going to be the fuel to the fire.
People need to embrace how serious this is, otherwise you’ll be shocked and stunned if/when it goes belly up.
I sincerely hope he gets a deal done. But this is not a subject to be taking lightly at all. This is serious. I wouldn’t write about it if it wasn’t.
Most definitively Rob… I wrote on a few topics about saving salary cap and trading RW in the last few months.. but really thinking about PC/JS prospects before RW.. Im not 100% confident they could get a successor that could come in and compete with the team already in place.
Also im not so sure PC wants to do so at his age. I feel like it would be a last resort kinda deal..and like you said, its just about making noise to try and squeeze all the money they can out of the seahawks, because they know like most good teams, you dont want to pay just one player to compete.. Well a few good teams dont want to pay just 1 guy.
If it does happen, i hope they get as much or more than what you’re talking about.. because generally JS gets about even deals or less value back on trades, just for the sake of getting what they want..
the charlie whitehurst deal comes to mind and some of the draft pick trades hes made.
seeing the colin cowherd story ended up kinda scaring me a little today.. not gonna lie..
“Wilson saying he’s happy to roll with the tag and won’t sign for anything less than the money he can get, fully guaranteed”
hat is that “money he an get”? is it 66M for 2 year extension beyond 2019 with 30M guaranteed for the first year and if he gets career ending injury its all over with nothing afterwards? or is it 110M for 3 years? or maybe 160M for 4?
The tag is an option for a team to keep a top 5 player at his position for at least 2 more years at reasonable market price. It was set in place to protect teams when a top player demands more than is reasonable. If it comes to play with RW it will be used by the team for the exact purpose it was created for.
Again, the way i see it is – when you have control over your franchise QB for the next 3 years at a reasonable cost it is not “By far the biggest issue on the agenda”.
I accept your wisdom Rob but i see it differently. Sorry…
I kind of agree with Eran here.
If there is overlap in the negotiation zone between PC/JS a deal will get done. I think this is more likely than the alternative–that RW will ask for more than the Seahawks are willing to pay.
If Rob is correct that RW wants to start negotiations with the minimum he could theoretically get under the tag, and that price is above the Seahawks’ ceiling, then, by all means, PC/JS should be looking for trading partners NOW so that when the D matures by 2021 a new QB will be ready to take the team back to the SB.
Ultimately what will keep RW in Seattle is his relationship with Pete and his knowledge that the Seahawks are totally committed to winning.
That’s fine. But I’m confident I am right on this one. Clear #1 issue on the agenda
Your definition of “reasonable” is subjective. A “reasonable” outlay for a top-5 FS might be $11-12 million. A reasonable outlay for a top-5 MLB, $15 million? If you do the math, Russell Wilson can rightly demand $36.7 million average PER YEAR for 2020-2022. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but is there a QB in the league who has even broken the $30 million mark yet? You can field a team around most franchised players, but I question whether you can really field a team around this big of commitment to one position. Even the most important position. It would make much more sense for the team to mitigate the cost over a long-term deal. With the way contracts are escalating, an average of $30-32 million over, say 5-6 seasons would put them ahead of the trend. The problem there being that Mark Rodgers will want it fully guaranteed…
Is there proof that it was Wilson’s team that drop the link? Honestly it kind of sounds like Cowherd pulled the Giants rumor from hearsay for some clicks. I’d just hate to see this fanbase get divided more than it already is over unsubstantiated tabloid rumors.
Cowherd says he talks to all sorts of people.. Agents, players, former players, executives, GMs… and like he said in this clip, he claims to get it right more times than not.. Which i do believe to an extent.. it may play out all the way til next march and they tag him to see if they can make a real push by 2021.. Carroll’s extension runs through 2021.. If RW people push it.. they could trade him after 1 season under the tag.
Not as easy as “we’ll just trade him later”. Can you get the same blue book value on your car this year next year and out of warranty? Every year that goes by, what you can get in return becomes less and less
It’s clearly from RW’s people
Sorry this is off subject a bit but I want to bring it up before it fades into obscurity. I just read that Shaquille Griffin’s 2018 performance was ranked 111th out of 112 by Pro Football Focus. As much as we want to believe he will return to his rookie ways, can we depend on that? Do we need to put more emphasis on drafting a CB this year or do see a free agent as the answer? I just don’t see how we can stand pat based on 2018. What do you guys think?
I actually didnt think he did that well his rookie year.. i thought tre flowers was better in his rookie year.. Although shaq was opposite of Sherman.. he might have drawn more looks because sherman gets less targets..
just watching the games in 2017, it seemed like he got thrown to a lot of times and some of those balls were not caught.. he was getting lucky because he was beat a decent amount of the time..
but im sure someone will tell im wrong..
PFF had him with a 77 rating in 2017 as opposed to his 2018 rating of 50 so he fell off quite a bit. In 2017 he was on the left side of the defense where he played in college and he had Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor for most of the year. There are mitigating factors but that doesn’t make me feel a lot better about 2019.
This is one topic I want absolutely nothing to do with. Let’s hope that whatever the outcome is, it’s the one that benefits the Seahawks the most. Just look at Antonio Brown and the Steelers, drama on the most unprofessional level and it’s playing out in public. No thank you. It’s draft season, why can’t these rumours wait until OTAs when there is literally nothing else to talk about. Kudos to Rob on his accurate forecast.
Only way I’d entertain this is Giants offer us 2019 1st & 2nd, 2020 1st & 3rd, 2021 2nd & 3rd.
Find a way to secure Will Grier by end of 1st round or really early 2nd round (wherever he may be slotted by the scouting depts). That #6 pick can can be flipped down for additional draft picks of 2019 and/or 2020.
2019 1st & 2nd (Pick #6) = 2120 draft capital. Not sure what the other picks would net us in point value but I’m sure it’d be at least 1000 points per year.
But no, work something out with RW, he means too much to our identity and success.
Maybe the Seahawks are already implementing a plan.
2019 = Bring in Paxton Lynch – see if he will improve
2020 draft the best QB available
2020 Either tag Russell Wilson or let him walk.
That plan will cost extra for the QBs, but it will leave them prepared for either eventuality.
Why not draft a QB this year? It would just be a waste of his first year, sitting on the bench. Plus the QB selection will be better in 2020.
Part of their master plan includes an option to just let Russ walk? Really? That makes no sense to me at all.
Nobody wants to let him walk. Actually Wilson and his agent may force it themselves. They are going to shop around, you know that right? In which case the franchise tag may be very useful.
Interesting Notes:
– Kaepernick is available…
– 2019: 1 & 2 (loaded defensive draft)
– 2020: 1
– 2021: 2
– Sign Landon Collins ??
– Reunion with Kristjan Sokoli ??
Thanks Russ!
Thanks Russ? What are you implying? Not sure what your point is.
Hawktalker is pretty clear what is being said …”thanks Russ’ is a tongue in cheek thank you for the bounty of picks, signing Kap and Sokoli. It’s not meant to be taken seriously.
UK, If it was clear I wouldn’t have asked.
If the Giants or another team wanted to trade for Russell Wilson the team would want a long-term deal. What happens if Russell Wilson WANTS to go to free agency. An N.F.L. football organization is not going to deal 1st round picks unless they can sign Russell Wilson to a long-term contract.
That’s what makes this rumor so interesting, if it is true. If Wilson wants to go to NY, he can be expected to negotiate a deal with the Giants. It will still be huge – no avoiding that, but it might be the key to a deal getting made.
If the rumor is true.
It isn’t true. It’s posturing
I’m not saying Russ wants to necessarily go to New York, but I think the true part of this posturing is that he is just fine moving on from Seattle.
I still believe that Seattle should ascertain, as soon as possible (I’ve always thought it should be priority #1), what it is going to take to keep him and then either do it or trade him while his value is presumably at its highest.
The draft won’t change a thing if he is willing to move on.
If the Raiders call and offer all 3 1st round picks in 2019…. DEAL or NO DEAL?
Caveat: I seriously doubt he gets traded to anyone in 2019, but 2020 is another matter.
Perhaps a sign and trade sort of deal involving the franchise tag.
Its a no from me, dawg.
Throw in a 2019 or 2020 2nd and it may be another story.
If Khalil Mack is worth 2 firsts, a 2nd and a 3rd, Russell has to be worth MORE than 3 1sts in my mind.
Nice idea, but if the point is to go to New York, Las Vegas is hardly a comp. And the deal will likely hinge on getting a long term deal done with the trading team, unless they are willing to fork over so much draft capital on a one year deal, with questions about extending. That would just put the Raiders in the same boat as Seattle.
And the game starts. Just wish it wasn’t Cowherd, though he has always banged the drum for Russ. Russ is a hard guy to read. He will never be public bad guy so it makes sense that his agent will do this kind of stuff. I don’t buy the Ciara NY thing. Both of them have been able to be in the spot light in Seattle and yet remain low key. They want to invest in several NW sports teams too. The team let all of the old core go except Russ and Bobby. I don’t think he goes anywhere unless he himself makes things untenable and the chances of that are low. He has his good guy image and every contract dispute paints the player in a bad light. He won’t risk looking like Earl or Leveon.
This is why the Pats thrive. Russ doesn’t have the Dak Prescot excuse haha (His wife is not a millionaire). He deserves the money for his play despite crappy O lines, scheme constraints and bad teammates. But he claims to want to win above all. He claims to want to be an owner some day. Does taking 30% of the cap put you in the best position to win for the long term? Brady was never the highest paid guy. Took a little less so they could make impact moves when needed. Trust Bill to do the rest. This is a model we can follow with Pete as coach. I knows it is an unwanted comparison but ignoring successful trends of other teams is foolish. It will be a long, annoying road but I think Seattle is ride or die on Russ.
Interesting take with Russ & Brady and Giselle & Ciara and Russ win first mentality.
If Russ is smart, he’ll do something similar to Brady (take 30 mils APY for example). A ton of money, your wife is rich also, you put the team in a position where you can win more likely. Tbh this shouldn’t be that hard.
Russ wants to get noticed and valued but he’s also a humble team player. Hopefully, his agent won’t poison his mind and this can be figured out.
This is not like 1 mil APY vs 12 mil APY. This is ~30 mil APY and ~37 mil APY. Even if he gives a discount that’s a shitton of money
I dont even think 3 1st round picks would be enough. More like #6, 2020 1st, 2020 2nd, 2021 1st, 2021 3rd. I think it’s much more likely that we tag Wilson for at least 2 years and then trade him while hes on the tag to someone who will sign him (this will make his stock take a hit, since the team would have to pay him too.)
If were gonna trade him, I would hope they would do it now, though, as the tag is extremely expensive for QBs. Maybe if we hit on some pieces in the draft, we’ll have more of a reason to get it over with and save that money to lock up a core. Who knows.
Seeing what Chicago gave up for Mack, I would not be surprised if a team offered 3 1sts +. The opportunity to get a legit top QB doesnt come around often, someone could definitely trade the house for him.
NYG wouldnt be insane to spend that on uniting RW, Barkley and Odell. That is a scary trio, arguably would be the best in the NFL. Is that worth 4 1sts if that’s what it takes? If I were the GM building that, I think I would jump on the opportunity.
Also want to say that for every 1st rounder we get, we would be able to wait that much longer for a QB we like, and we would have 2 firsts to trade up if we need to. So it doesnt have to be 2019 or even 2020. It could be 2021 or maybe JS likes some freshman and gets a 2022 1st rounder instead lol. Anything is possible if this really happens haha.
Giants build a legit offense with guys like Russell Wilson, Saquon Barkley, Odell Beckham, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard.
Seattle gets to build their roster while they wait for their next QB on a rookie deal to come around, this time they’re not just winging on 3rd rounders, they mean bidness. 2020 QBs anyone?
‘Waiting for the next QB’ isn’t an option. They’re not going from prospective contender to ‘hoping a QB falls to them’ again.
From my understanding, in this situation they dont have a choice.i thought the whole point of this was if we CANT keep Russell. What other option is there if we can’t keep him?
I didnt say they would “hope a QB falls to them” I specifically said that we can wait for the year we want, and have 2 1st rounders to trade UP for our guy. That’s nothing close to what you act like I said. I dont understand why you’re shutting me down on a post about losing Russell.
It’s extremely naive to say that if we lost RW, we wouldnt wait for the QB we want. Totally irrational to lose your QB then draft the best QB in a bad class just to draft another one. If you need a QB and you like 2020 class better than 2019, and would have 2 1st rounders to get your guy, you do it. Idk why that’s not an option? If Grier was in the 2020 class youd be saying were gonna wait for him because hes your guy.
It’s not naive at all. The only naive thing is believing you can wait and that whoever you’re waiting for will be attainable. You have to plan well in advance. Besides — a guy you like today might look like trash in a year. Or might get injured. Remember Javon Snead? You can’t look ahead and say ‘we’ll be OK because next year we can get this guy.’ No. You need to be more proactive than that. And drafting a QB this year doesn’t stop you from drafting another next year anyway.
Advice the Cardinals would do well to heed.
I love that you quote me with something I never said to fit your agenda better lol. I say we can trade up in the 1st for a QB and somehow that means “waiting on a QB to fall to us”
Coincidentally, that is exactly what PCJS did when they drafted….. Russell Wilson….. that franchise QB were talking about in the 3rd round.
Sorry if I got a little snippy there but that was a slap in the face.
I gotta say, the more the dust settles on this goofy bombshell Cowherd dropped today, the more I think that this whole thing isn’t going to end well in Seattle for RW.
Rob, if you’re right and this is just the way RW’s camp is stirring things up in the offseason, the Trade Wilson delegation of the 12s is doing to grow considerably. Not to get all provincial, but I’m going to say this won’t fly in the PNW, and fans are going to be increasingly put off, especially considering the Alex Rodriguez scars.
I understand the RW and A Rod are two different situations but for years I’ve been hearing the A Rod comparisons from friends and family who don’t like RW. They just believe he is fake, and this bombshell will stoke those flames.
I think this is a blue collar region at it’s core, and that’s what is typically embraced in Alaska South. Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, Shaun Kemp, Steve Largent, Kenny Easley, Marshawn Lynch are all pretty much folk heroes in the NW armpit of the 48 states because of who they were and how they played. This region birthed Nirvana for goodness sakes out of the proverbial middle finger it gives to the flash and glam of bigger markets. If RW’s agent thinks that this news will somehow spark pressure on the team to give RW whatever he is asking for, fans are going to turn on him and his wife big time.
It seems like such a ridiculously stupid ploy, it kinda makes me think that where there is smoke there is fire, and RW and Ciara really want out of Seattle, and if that is the case, I’d almost say don’t let the door hit you on the way out, and I’ve been as big of a RW fan as anyone. If I am feeling that, I can only imagine what luke warm fans and RW haters feel.
Even if they do play the franchise tag game for a couple years, if they draft Will Grier, or sign Teddy Bridgewater, or trade of Jacoby Brissett, that back up QB is going to have a cult following with every INT RW throws, open WR he doesn’t see, and needless sack he takes. I can hear Will Grier chants from the stands the way fans chanted Dilfer whenever Hasselbeck struggled.
This could get really ugly. It almost forces Seattle to make plans for the QB of the Future.
This beautifully states the ethos of our region. Say what you will – we are blue collar, provincial, and loyal. You know what people in the Pacific Northwest don’t tolerate. Fakes and phonies. Has anyone had an actual conversation with RW3 when a camera or mic is not on? He is a totally different dude.
Russell’s personality does not fit. He is not one of us just like his teammates use to say he was not one of them.
His primary focus is making as much money as possible and advance his brand. More power to him. He just needs to go some place else to do that (e.g. Chargers when Rivers retires). L.A. is perfect he can be as fake as he wants.
What I don’t like is pouring those kind of resources into QB1 (with limitations) when the roster is still a work in progress. The Team as a community asset and the Organization is the steward of that asset. Over time owners will come and go as will players, executives, and the front office. You know who will endure – the Fans. That is a long winded way of saying I do not want the Organization to leverage the Team’s future on a player/person like Russell.
I’ve had multiple interactions and you’re correct
Do tell.
Fine by me. Sell high if Russell is truly worthy of that draft pick haul. I am dubious of #3’s long term eliteness due to non-height’s reliance on mobility. In any event, bleep Colin though, who loves jabbing his native region (Aberdeen is a trek to Seattle obv) because he never amounted to anything locally.
Kurt Cobain smiles upon the Aberdeen reference worked into this replay. 😀
I wonder if the Seahawks might make a play for brisset…from the colts. There were some rumors last year. Whether they trade Wilson or not…. brisset would be nice to have around…for bargaining power and also for insurance.
Would be a perfect hedge until our guy comes around. Knows Schotty and has had success with him. Good one Adog.
How do we know that Seattle isnt totally fine with just having a guy like Brissett? After all, all they’ve ever done is sign Matt Flynn to a modest deal and draft a 3rd round QB. They’ve looked for flyers, but I feel like Wilson sort of fell into their lap, I’m not sure they were ever as hell bent on finding a top QB as most teams are, it just happened. Defense+ Running game + special teams does not require an elite QB, It just doesnt, that’s why you hear the “Seattle is wasting RW’s talent” talk.
Sorry to ramble on your post, I’m just processing everything as it comes and putting my thoughts in here.
Good points coleslaw… I’m not sure always compete translates to “franchise” QBs . Part of my crazy psycho football soul…wants to part ways with Russ just to let that last super bowl loss turn into a scar .
Man, I don’t know Slaw. Don’t think Brissett is even close to the level of RW, and not sure why so many on this blog think the Hawks can simply rely on their run game to win consistently.
What makes our offense so good is that Russ complements the run game with an excellent deep passing game. There’s always examples of teams that are good in one offensive phase, but they rarely make it to the top. Teams need to be multi dimensional in order to keep defenses off balance. Even though the Hawks are a run first team, defenses must honor Russ’ ability to throw as well.
I understand why some are suggesting we trade Russ, and maybe it comes to that if he’s unwilling to negotiate an extension in good faith, but it likely sets us back quite a few years while searching for the next franchise QB.
I think if Brissett gets traded, it’s to a team that is ready to make him the starter right away. I read somewhere that Miami might be hot for his services and they are ready to dump Tannehill.
Maybe I am wrong(I hope I am wrong) is the fact that Russell Wilson wants free agency. He wants to see what he is worth on the open market.
He wont get free agency. He will be taged or trade or whatever, but why the hell would seahawks let him hit FA? We will get him on multy year contract or masiive draft capital for him.
Rob, if this doesn’t end well, and JS trade Russ for multiple first and second round picks, do you see Kaepernick as potential Seahawks QB for next 2,3 years?
No, zero chance
It’s quite possible the settlement bars him from playing again. Sometimes these types of settlements, the defendant can stipulate that the complainant cannot seek employment with them in the future. To prevent future lawsuits.
Rob, you are good dude. You called the contract Saga. Love this blog
If in the very unlikely situation that he is traded, how many 1st-round picks do you think Seattle will get?
I’ve heard something like a 2019 1st, 4th, 5th and a first in 2020 and 2021.
Thanks for replying
Reminder of Schneider/Carroll’s 1st rd draft pick history:
Russell Okung
Earl Thomas
James Carpenter
Bruce Irvin
Germain Ifedi
Rashaad Penny
Give Wilson whatever he wants unless they’re offered a #1 overall pick+ and there’s a QB like Andrew Luck available with a high floor.
I’m not sure that says what you think it says. For my money:
Very good
Great
Good
Good
Decent
Who knows?
No busts, the top 15 guys were very good to great. That’s a decent hit rate, in my book.
It says exactly what I think it says. Wilson is worth more than three/four 1st round picks over a three/four year span unless they’re guaranteed a stud QB with a high floor.
Any 1st rd picks the Seahawks receive after the first draft will likely be low 1st round picks because Wilson won’t be guiding his new team to a losing record.
I don’t think it necessarily says that, but my mistake was in thinking you were saying JS did a bad job drafting in the 1st round, so that devalues the picks.
As to the draft picks, who knows? Minnesota was 13-3 and “upgraded” their QB to Cousins; they went 8-7-1. Washington I’m sure thought that they wouldn’t have a losing record with Alex Smith; they didn’t, but went just 8-8. Heck, we had Russ already and are picking 21.
I’d have done it last year for Cleveland’s 1st and 4th. Mayfield was a bit overrated this year, but I’d feel pretty good going into next season with him and Denzel Ward rather than hoping Shaq rebounds. Or Mayfield and Bradley Chubb, so we wouldn’t be scrambling to find somebody to play opposite Clark?
An extra 1st next year maybe gets us a shot at Tua, Herbert, or Jacob Eason. I’d be okay with that.
I’m already tired of all of it. Not because I believe it or didnt think it was coming, but because of every non Seahawk fan in the world.
I work with a lot of military folk and understandably there are fans from all over the country here. FOUR TIMES since Cowturd said this I’ve been stopped in the hall with:
(In my best valley girl voice…)
“OH MY GOD! DID YOU HEAR? WILSON WANTS OUT OF SEATTLE! Isn’t that like SOOOOOOooooo crazy? How do you feel about that? Do you think Ciara is going to push him to NY?”
I don’t doubt for one minute that Ciara would want to live in N.Y. Wouldn’t doubt for one minute if JS has to get creative to get more draft picks.
Colin Cowherd though? lmao.
‘Ciara wants to be in N.Y. The Giants don’t love anybody in this draft.’ The people your describing stopping you in the hallway are Colin Cowherd.
I’m already tired of this as well. The most discouraging part of it that Rob is again correct and there’s going to be a lot more of this garbage coming.
In a nutshell: The reality is that the Seahawks are going to be in big trouble in the short and medium-term if they get rid of Russ and there are no two ways about that.
The Seahawks are not, and were never intended to be, some mindless engine of a team that wins by running the ball and doesn’t need a good QB at the helm. I guarantee that if we pull Russ out of the QB position and attempt to replace him with any lesser or unproven quarterback, there is going to be a heavy price to pay. And the price is going to be losing and losing a lot.
Although it’s easy to get irritated with one of our favorite players, and perhaps even more so his agent, for using some tough negotiating tactics, we need to remember this is a business and they are employees trying to get the best pay for themselves and their families that they can. Since their contracts are not fully guaranteed, like the are in several other sports, owners have an exceptional amount of control and can cut a player basically whenever they want. Not much job or financial security there, so they have one time to negotiate their salary and often it is not a fun time for the fans (including me) to endure. The sucky part if it is some of the rumors start to make me question Russ and his role in this and ask myself is this his fault? Is he doing something wrong? Should I start blaming and dis-like him? This whole thing is screwing with my mind and I hate that.
The upside is that I am confident JS and the FO know what they are doing and know Russ’s value and want to keep him and will if there is any possible. This will likely be just be a much bigger, uglier and longer version of negotiating with Russ than it was last time around. I do have this feeling JS will find a way to strike a deal at some point. The bad news is it won’t come soon enough for me. I just hate this subject matter and all the media attention it will get, potentially over of the span of multiple years. Ouch.
I would so much rather focus on draft picks, draft trades, FA, new kicker, filling roster and PS holes and moving the team forward in other ways.
Go Hawks!!
Good points here! Of course all of the contract negotiating and media silliness is frustrating for fans, the same fans who make considerably less than Russ and Ciara. Hard to believe one could squabble over a contract that pays you $30MM or more per year, but I’m not seeing it from Russ’ perspective either.
We just need to trust that Pete/John know what they’re doing, and that they will get Russ signed if its the right thing to do for the team. Or, they will find a willing trade partner and maximize the return, if that’s the right thing to do.
Its just so difficult to find franchise QB’s, so its hard to believe they will let Russ get away.
+1
Totally agree.
I disagree it’s that hard to find franchise QBs. Guess it depends on what you mean by that. I mean, the vast majority of teams have QBs that they’ve held on to for years, so presumably they think they are franchise QBs. Think there a few greats, the rest are mostly fine. And I think you can win with a good, not great, QB.
I mean, look at the dearth of teams looking for a QB in this draft. Miami (though Tannehill’s fine), Jax, Denver, Washington, maybe NYG. And Washington mostly because of injury. Everybody else has a guy that’s led them to the playoffs or looks promising enough to let mature. So only 5 out of 32.
There are certainly tiers of quality. But the fact is Seattle currently has a QB we know can lead them to a Super Bowl. There aren’t many teams that have that guy on their roster. Some are capable of making the playoffs. But actually knowing they can win the lot? That’s a rare breed. Very difficult to give one of those away and find another.
I can see that viewpoint, and agree with it to a point. BUT…
It’s rare to find a QB you know can win the whole thing, but we also know that nobody has been able to win it with a QB getting paid at or near the top of the market. In 25 years, nobody’s done it. But we know there’ve been mediocre QBs that have won it.
I think there is naturally going to be a gap between the salary at which it still makes sense for us to sign him and the salary that some other team will be willing to give him (or he could make under a tag amount). It is not our job to close that gap. Just because somebody else will pay does not make it the right move for our team. And frankly, the more we get these kind of press leaks and protracted negotiations, the less interested I am in resigning him.
Rob,
Yes, RW led the Seahawks to two SBs – in his second and third year. With all-world defenses and a stunning run game. And since? Without that all world defense or a dominant run game? Not nearly as impressive. And there is nothing in the near future (without something truly disruptive) that is likely to change that. The Seahawks do not have the cap space or the draft capital to really improve the team. And in fact, they will struggle to maintain their current level in the next couple of years (should nothing change). Along with RW’s future we can consider Clark’s, Wagner’s and Reed’s.
So no, we don’t know that RW can lead Seattle to another SB. In fact, I would assert the outlook is rather dim. Maybe the make the playoffs next year, but even if they do, do we expect much after that? What can the team do to enhance their opportunity?
Not the old, “can’t do it without an elite defence” argument.
He’s very capable. He was just as important than that defense if not more.
That great defense was 7-9 before Wilson arrived.
They were 7-9 before Bobby Wagner, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Bruce Irvin showed up. Let’s not act like the LOB isnt the only reason we have a Lombardi trophy. We all know Russell would not have gotten into a firefight with Peyton Manning and his #1 offense ever and beat him without that defense. We all know what happens on the 1 yard line when you trust 1 guy to match TDs over and over. We know what it’s like to win games when your offense puts up 100 total yards because your Defense is so good.
Defense > Elite QB.
I’ll take Ryan Fitzpatrick and a defense close to the LOB over Russell Wilson at $40M/year, in all honesty. You can’t win superbowls with 1 player, I don’t care who it is, nobody can do it, there’s a massive precedence. Paying top dollar for your QB = no soup-er bowl for you.
The defense are not the only reason they have a Lombardi. RW, Marshawn, Doug, others. It’s a nonsense to suggest it was all because of the defense.
But not as much as that Ryan Fitzpatrick comment 🤦♂️
Who’s saying $40m a year? Paying Wilson doesn’t make you a one man team. These are red herrings.
What’s happening here people?
Take the LOB out of that superbowl and the Broncos put up 40-50 points. We don’t put up 43 either, we had a pick 6 and the safety, that’s down to 34. Not to mention the multiple turnovers we got for Russell in that game.
You take Wilson out of that game and all we would need is what the defense gave us, 9 points. Literally anything from the QB would have been overkill.
‘Take out this, that and the other and this scenario that is impossible to predict might’ve happened and this is how I will prove my point’.
Please stop.
Certainly there are tiers in quality, but what there are not tiers of, really, is salary. Each “franchise” QB sets the market anew. We should be thankful for the opportunity to pay one of the good ones instead of the Flacco’s, Stafford’s, Garoppolo’s, et al who reset the market each time they sign a new deal.
Errm, name me one franchise QB drafted after RW!
In the sense: plays more than one breakout season, repeated playoff appearances, a SB, maybe even a title…
By franchise QB, I mean a player who’s in the upper echelon of the NFL at the position. Not necessarily one of the highest paid players, although that tends to follow for true franchise players.
You named several teams still looking for franchise QB’s, but its not for a lack of trying which is why I mentioned that true franchise QB’s aren’t that easy to find. Let’s look at your list: 1) Miami certainly believed Tannehill was their guy — he wasn’t, 2) Jax and Bortles, nothing more to say, 3) Denver drafted Paxton Lynch as the next post-Manning guy and he’s not it, and then they moved on to Keenum and decided after one year he’s no franchise QB, now their gonna roll with Flacco who’s also mediocre at best (yes he won a super bowl, but everything fell right that one year, and a top notch defense), 4) Washington, think they really believe Alex Smith is the guy?, 5) NYG, the one team on your list who actually have a franchise QB, but Eli is not aging as gracefully as Tom Brady, he’s fading fast.
So, not really that easy to find a true franchise QB. Teams have to hold onto them when they have them, or they can dump them when they get to expensive and try to develop the next man up.
My question Rob is that if it is going to inevitably end poorly, then isn’t a good assumption that JD also knows this? And doesn’t that make the trade talks worth discussing just as a talking point and possibility? You have discussed the possibility of tagging a few times, and drafting a guy like Grier this year. But how about the alternative scenario where we trade him and what we could possibly get and do with that? Especially with QBs and RW, we really don’t have precedent on what they will do, as this is a new situation (as you have mentioned, it’s different and worse than the previous negotiation with RW and camp), and so maybe should treat it as though. There is also the scenerio that they plan on tagging next year, which opens the door for another class of QBs to train under RW for a year, and then could tag again which also opens up another year (though I would suppose a deal gets done or he’s traded on that second tag). Point being, with this inevitable posturing and negotiations (which I actually thoroughly enjoy watching play out) shouldn’t we discuss alternative scenarios instead of doom and gloom just because it’s going to be a process? I love RW, and he likes to say “love the process more than the result” and that’s why I love the draft and this site. The process is so much fun, so discussing it should be fun.
I don’t think a poor end is inevitable but I think it’s possible and will be planned for
Some good points, but I disagree about the process.
I honestly hate the contract negotiation process with Russ’s new deal and all that goes with it.
Especially since I believe the hawks will be far worse off without him and unlike the Cardinals, I like winning.
Speaking of, Justin Coleman is about to get paid!
Ravens sign nickel CB Tavon Young to a 3 year extension worth $25.8 mil with a max value of $29 mil.
On topic here. Watching some CBs, and Udub ‘s Byron Murphy is my hands down CB1, Greedy Williams is my CB2, but after that there isn’t very much separating the rest from each other.
Really like Murphy a lot. He will be an elite slot CB day #1 I think. Do you think he would have the speed to play FS in our scheme?
Oh he can play on the outisde, but he’s a zone scheme guy.
Probably. Unless he struggles at corner, I wouldn’t move him.
I’m all over him if I’m KC.
Russell Wilson CAN’T have it both ways. If he wants to make as much money as possible. That’s fine. But that will only hamstring an organization, Seattle or whoever. But don’t expect to win Super Bowls if you are making $35-40 million per year.
One reason Tom Brady keeps winning Super Bowls is because he is giving the Patroits a discount. The QB leads by example. Tom Brady gives New England a home town discount. Most players on New England give the Pats a discount. Otherwise Belichick trades them or lets them leave in Free agency. New England wins Super Bowls and and they do not have any salary cap issues. Figure that one out.
I don’t think a trade to New York will happen. But if Russell Wilson went to the Giants it would cost them major draft picks. Right now the Giants are at the bottom of the N.F.L. heep. The Giants dispite the fact that they have Saquon Barkley/Odell Beckham they have a lack of talent on their team. Then you are going to give away a number of premium draft picks for Wilson. It doesn’t add up. So Russell if you want to be the greatest ever. You have to lead by example(Tom Brady way). If you want to suck every last nickel out of an organization. That’s fine. But then if you want to go to Super Bowls you will have to go as a spectator.
RWIII,
I am not an expert on the Giants (even though I live in New York) but my understanding is that they have a very talented defense, and they felt like Manning really held them back last year.
BTW, they also have an exceptional TE.
Obtaining RW could make a big difference for the team, enough to potentially fork out the draft capital.
There were also rumblings about trading Odel, and while that might sound counterintuitive within this context, they seem unhappy with him. I also read rumors that NE might be interested. Now wouldn’t that be something. Randy Moss all over again.
Anyway, if NYG traded Odel to NE for a first, that would give them two first round picks in 2019 to deal for RW.
Apologies for the lack of posts this week I’ve been in Disneyland Paris with the family. BIG combine preview on the way next week though.
No worries Rob. It’s pre-combine and we’re fully in the no news speculation and posturing part of the offseason…so not much content of substance anyways. Can’t wait for the combine and FA to see what the Hawks priorities are after the first wave of over priced signings happen.
Rob,
No worries, it allows us to dwell. And as you so effectively argue, this is a big deal, no matter what we think should or should not happen. There is risk and danger in every aspect of it, with no obvious solutions, regardless of how some of us write as if there are. 🙂
Ah, Disneyland Paris. I went there as a kid, stayed at one of their resorts there. It was pretty fun. And I’m guessing mid-February is a good time to go too. Hope your week is relatively relaxing – frankly, I was starting to get worried that you’d burn out after the article-a-day rate you were pulling off last week. Have a good time with your family!
Enjoy! You deserve it. Thanks for all the content you do put out and make sure you don’t burn out!
Oh my god!
Needs to be fine tuned, but I think I’d take this kid on day 3 over some of these other DTs. His get-off/burst and motor is nothing short of special. In-f***-ing-credible. He goes HARD! Will be the youngest guy at the combine IIRC.
UCF DT Trysten Hill (6’2, 315 lbs.)
Trysten Hill vs Memphis (2018):
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dYVDjk8OLwA
Wow
Holy guacamole
Sure like what I saw there. Thanks for pointing him out. Will be fun to keep tabs on him.
Auburn CB Jamel Dean (6’2, 208 lbs.) and looong. Rumored to be a freak athlete and run a 4.3-4.4 40. Will probably be more of a 4.5 guy, but I’m intrigued. Limited opposing QBs to a 49.1 QB rating this year.
Overcame a lot, injury wise, to play again after transferring from Ohio St.
Jamel Dean vs LSU (2018):
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_m-Mn1_05ek
Do you have any idea how quick he is with his feet or in tight spaces and/or can he make up ground if he gets beat deep? Does he excel at tight /bump and run man to man or is he more a zone player?
Haven’t really got a feel for him off one game. I liked what I saw though.
Off first glance he looks patient, physical, and if he runs what he’s rumored to he better have recovery speed.
RW to LA Chargers in 2021…. calling my shot here.
Ya miss 100% of the shots ya don’t take.
The less a man makes declarative statements the less likely he is to appear foolish in retrospect
V12, you have to be cold hearted and take the shot from downtown…. sometimes.
Kenny, I’ve heard way crazier stuff come out of professional sports reporters mouths, such as…. the Mariners are going to win 75 games this season *spits out drink*
Taking my shot . . . RW in Seattle in 2021. 🙂
Shot #2: if RW is not in Seattle in 2021 they will have a losing season that year and at least the next.
Go Hawks!!!
This is proof that everyone never gives us the respect we deserve.’ I was about to get these jokes off regarding human scum Robert Kraft, but every detail that comes out makes it less funny.
Pats fans are really out here trying to stick up for this man. The state of that fanbase. Imagine.
Whole new meaning to ‘the tape don’t lie.’
But lets keep talking about Kaep and #takeaknee.
Not the 1st time this organization has been involved in tampering with balls huh?
Off topic: I’m surprised I haven’t seen Charles Omenihu’s (DE, Texas) name much on the blog. He seems like a good fit in Seattle. Any thoughts on him?
I really like Omenihu a lot and agree he would be a good fit as a Seahawk, unfortunately he now seems to be ranked in the middle second to early third round area. If, the Seahawks can trade down and somehow get a pick in that area it would be lucky for them to get this guy. Realistically, he’s in kind of in a blind spot in the draft right now making it more of a reach with whatever becomes of their first pick in the draft, yet out of reach with their second pick. Perhaps a better -positioned- DL alternative, using that very first pick?
-DL-Jerry Tillery, Notre Dame, 6-6/304, (5-tech), Currently #33 @ drafttek,com
Needs coaching up but ++ upside, has the + size and length & shows versatility. The Seahawks took a big chance on the character of McDunebuggy, a vary similar, although IMO, a slightly inferior, player. Some have questions about Tillery’s love of the game & multiple other interests, but that’s just other peoples concerns. His potential to earn really big bucks as a star NFL DL should be all he needs for motivation, just coach him up and turn him lose. He could become a real monster at several DL positions.(Also, PFF likes him and considers him at or near the top of all DL’ers in the draft.)
https://twitter.com/CHawk_Talk/status/1099028829169831936?s=20
Dolphins have #48 in round 2. That’s deep but we’ve seen JS wait that long before.
I’m just done caring about all of it. I quit buying merchandise 4 years ago, and haven’t attended a game since 2013.
I’m tired of all the stupid rules. I’m tired of shit assed refs. I’m tired of salary caps, I’m tired of the GREED.
I’ll give it another year, but simply running out of fucks to give.
Stop swearing or you’ll be tired of this place too.
After having strongly considered FS-Nasir Adderley as a potential Seahawk 3-rd round pick (with pick #85), he’s being hyped now as a possible late 1-st rounder. IMO- There is only a small possibility that the Seahawks would take Adderley that early (if he crushes the combine & they fell in love), but that is not really too probable at all based on other perceived team needs.
So, what to do about a FS position in “some need” of more competition? Obviously, looking at “raw” guys with potential to excel that could be available in the middle to later rounds. Lots to choose from, however, many are JAG’s. It’s been said that PC could train a monkey into a DB, IF – all the basic tools are there to begin with.
A player I remember from this years Las Vegas bowl where he had a really nice pick-6 could be a potential mid-round option to replace ET & send TT to the bench? He has the size & length to start with and with proper coaching (and adding consistency to his game) should only make him a better DB. Alternatively, he might be a Flowers 2.0 at CB? Somewhere in this draft or FA, the Seahawks need improvement at DB as well as better pass rushers, the two work hand in hand in pass defenses. Anyway, Here is a guy to keep an eye on at the combine.
-S-Mike Bell, Fresno St. 6-3/203, 40-time TBD, – Currently, #98-overall at drafttek.com & rising fast.
2018: 14-games, 87-tkls, 53-solo, 3.5-TFL, 1/2-Sack, 3-INT, 8-PBU
Career: 37-games, 199-tkls, 121-solo, 9.0-TFL, 1/2-Sack, 4-INT, 12-PBU, 2-FR, 1-FF.
A game tape: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuE0bh7hf_A (I see good & not so good play here, BUT, most of the negatives look correctable to me with good coaching.) Could he be a better safety than the slow footed TT? If so, that’s called an upgrade and is well worth the draft capital – at a very important position in the Seahawk defense as shown by (former FS) -ET.
What do you guys think of Luani? Any potential or JAG?
JAG. Will make his living on STs.
A little bit early to tell. At Oakland, he was given a roster spot for basically nothing. No good environment. Next preseason, he will have a healthy dose of PC under his belly, then we will watch, if he can be competitive vs Hill and Thompson.
Not much more to say, and I want to keep things civil, but am I the only one that finds Cowherd completely insufferable?
The only worse person in the sports world is Skip Bayless.
That is all, carry on.
No. They’re both the absolute worst.
Love Shannon Sharpe ethering Skip every chance he gets though.
God I hope we get Shannon covering the WWE when they move to FOX.
Skip: John Cena isn’t one of the GOATs. He’s not on my wrestling Mt. Rushmore
Shannon: He’s 16x world champion and his 2007 rivals anyone’s catalog. If not for that completely torn pec that he returned from 4 months later, we might be talking about the single greatest year from a performer ever.
Skip: I’m sorry that just doesn’t do it for me.
Shannon: OK, but Skip…Skip…Skip. You can’t see me. *proceeds to do the hand motion*
The thing that I find most insufferable about Cowherd is how far he goes out of the way to dump on the region that he is from and it’s teams. It’s almost like he has a complex about it all, and his inner monologue reads to the effect of “I grew up there. Nothing goes on up there. Russell Wilson is the best thing that has ever happened there, and if he is wise like me, he will leave it for bigger and better things.”
Word on the street is that the slot CB Coleman is due to get between 5M ands 8M as a FA….. the closer to 8M he gets, the less likely he comes back to Seattle. It would be a shame, if he were to move on, but then I wonder if we should be looking at potential slot CBs in the draft with a more critical eye???
I agree, it would be a shame. I have grown to like what he contributes. Does he have some weaknesses, sure. However, they’re not big enough for us to prioritize upgrading him over other positions. I doubt they’re in any position to try to make a move there and less it is forced financially, which is your point. Replacing him means will have to move in someone else and we don’t have anybody of his skill level currently available. I’m sure they’re going to pick up at least one CB in the draft, but based on history it sure will not be an early pick in the pic will only come after we do a good job trading down to get additional pics.
I didn’t understand your “critical Eye” comment. What did you mean by that?
If Tavon Young’s deal was any indication, and it was IMO, he gone. I brought this up in one of my posts above.
There’s a ton of corners in this class with size who can man the slot.
I highlighted Auburn’s Jamel Dean for this reason and Baylor’s Derrick Thomas. But was shot down on Thomas immediately.
Here you go, Trevor:
Learning in fact two completely new schemes (slot and pro-style deep), getting accustomed to professional coaching coming from a small school, and then playing a good game. This is the ultimate test on football IQ. Love this guy.