Written by guest blogger Kenny Sloth
An ice cold take.
The Seahawks have finished at or near the top of the league in rushing yards over the last few years, while their pass protection has consistently ranked, in the kindest of light, as decidedly below average. Since the season ended the draft community has relentlessly thrown a litany of linesman at pick 26 hoping something sticks. While Jack Conklin, Ryan Kelly, and others may turn into exceptional pro’s, they do not fit the parameters by which the Seahawks have built their line since Cable’s arrival.
Thanks to the exemplary research and dedication committed by Rob, he has been able to reverse engineer a sort of paragon for the ‘Hawks tendencies towards more highly athletic lineman among the college ranks. Through even more research he has managed to narrow down the most likely of picks and our attention now rests on two of the more athletic, decorated offensive linemen available in this class.
Key Stats Jason Spriggs
— Four year starter
— Former tight end
— Blocks guys to the ground
— Struggles to redirect weight inside
— Struggles to match power 1v1
— Not a mauler
— Only missed one game due to injury
— 2,000 yard rusher 2014
— Two sacks allowed in 430 pass calls
Reminds me of: Nate Solder
The best tackle at the senior bowl, great movement on double teams, doesn’t get to the second level with enough zeal to be considered a power scheme guard. Limited to a zone scheme, even then he may struggle inside. Very eager in protection. Strong punch, relentless hand use. Turns shoulders way too, early bails out of his stance and allows inside penetration. Doesn’t give help inside.
At the Senior Bowl, to end an interview he says, “I’d like to show…everybody that I can play with the best of the best… that’s what I’m about to prove”. I wouldn’t want to be the GM that tells him they’re gonna pass. Answers very honestly and to the point. Looked so so smooth without pads at the combine. Plays with a similar instictive fluidity
Ya’ll wanna see an athlete?
Who says white boys can’t jump?
Key Stats Germain Ifedi
— Three year starter
— RG as a freshman All-American
— Played RT while Cedric Ogbuehi auditioned for the NFL
— Missed two games with sprained MCL last season
— 2nd team all SEC this year
Plays way too tall, patient sometimes too much so, late with hands, sloppy, inconsistent placement. So toned, looks like 300 lbs. Great footspeed, great recovery. Kick slide not very fluid, sloppy all over. Cable didn’t seem very impressed when working him out at the Texas A&M pro day. Lunges.
Ifedi seems to offer very little during his interviews at the combine. Strikes you as shy and extremely intelligent. Sounds like a leader. Speaks like he ran that OL, Spriggs seems like he was simply the best player on the OL. Takes ownership of losses. Not very emotional. QUIET.
Radio team for A&M had to turn up his mic repeatedly during a guest segment including himself and Mike Matthews. Traveled to the senior bowl even though he could not participate. He’s quiet but always smiling. Very eloquent. Construction Science major. Interned with a company that then became contracted to build the A&M stadium. Some background in this piece.
He gets knocked a lot for staying on the right. But he makes it clear in several interviews that it was for the freshman LT who was uncomfortable on the right. Very versatile.
Germain played at 335lbs. Says he’ll eat a bowl of fruit and some eggs and gains five pounds. Weight could be a concern. Hasn’t spoken to Johnny Manziel since he left.
Spriggs Vs Ohio State
First pressure he gives up due to a failure to redirect weight inside. Plants hard and sells out to stop speed rush of Joey Bosa who cuts it upfield effortlessly and puts Sudfeld in the dirt. Showing a very weak punch and allowing every OSU player inside his chest. Doesn’t have the length of Ifedi. Pushed back twice in a row on the goal line. Bails whenever Bosa is lined up against him. Bosa kept slipping trying to make an inside move. This could’ve been a much uglier matchup.
Spriggs dives at Bosa everytime he slips. Blocks guys out. Seems always to get punched in the face and recover, counter attacking. Eager to punch, inconsistent strength of punch. Misses the wing block at the second level way too much. Lacks hip torque to turn edge rushers inside in the run game. Not satisfied with bad blocks, always readjusting hands and trying to get leverage, knee bender. Doesn’t surprise defenders with punch, stops when he punches. (fun game because the QB changes due to injury from a pocket guy to a scrambler).
Spriggs Vs. Michigan State
First play he smacks Calhoun out of the way, fingers to the face leave him unable to react to pass right by him. More than one way to block a dude. Rob is right in that he is the best combo blocker in this draft, but when he knows he is isolated on an island he seems to just bail on the first step.
Inside is wide open. Got caught on an inside stunt. Low positional awareness for the TE convert. Put two guys on the ground with combo blocks then looked around for another. Hands all up in the facemask on several plays. I like it though. Beat badly inside on a quick concept again. Inside leg swinging free out from under shoulder == bad news bears. Loses interest in plays early on. Has run game syndrome, never clears the pile.
Ifedi Vs. Mississippi State
Down blocks very aggressively. Active hands. Constantly pushing, constant leg drive. Stomp slide kick slide. Beautiful initial step, but reverts to stomping, heavy feet. Phenomenal mirroring. Put Chris Jones on his ass. Took a paw all up in his facemask and threw the dude aside. Runs at opponent with arms extended. No punch? Patient, excellent mirroring. Same dude put his hands in his face, forced a hold. Easy to see because of poor hand placement. Allowed another hurry due to poor punch. Seems to duck for a wing block and whiff 2-3 times a game. Perhaps bad technique that pops up from time to time. Struggles to stay engaged at the second level,
Ifedi Vs. Alabama 2014
Old scheme same problems. Gets driven back because he doesn’t punch the DL. First year at RT apparent. All American guard in 2013 and played guard in highschool, I believe. Doesn’t punch and push. Kick slide showed so much improvement from 14 to 15. He used to do like a weird shuffle feet chop. No solid base, easy to drive back. Not afraid to clear the pile. Once he gets his hands on you you’re down. Strong as an Ox.
Ifedi Vs. Alabama 2013
Playing guard in front of Manziel, Ifedi showed the same lack of punch, but got to show off his absurd movement skill at his playing weight. Pulls so fluidly for someone his size.
If I had to give these prospects a one word summary I would call Spriggs relentless and Ifedi stolid. Spriggs will block you to the ground and dive at your neck while standing over you. He’ll get beat around the edge only to crack the dude after the QB rolls out. He’ll also leave wide open rush lanes and miss a second level block, but not for a lack of effort. His length is not superb, but certainly passable. Struggles to shift his weight and mirror. Fast hands. The kind of guy you can go to war with.
Ifedi is constantly contributing. His long arms and fast footwork offer few openings for opposing pass rushers. Seems to lack confidence in his punch and technique. Not a fiery guy but a leader and someone your players can look up to. Literally. In an interview Mike Matthews said Ifedi had just weighed in at 335lbs, midseason. This is a dude that has two inches and 15 pounds on James Carpenter. Too bad he doesn’t use his weight on the field. You could’ve told me Spriggs was the heavier of the two and I’d believe it. Ifedi at times is the Hulk, just no way around this guy. And it’s not a case of ‘looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane’. More often than not he’ll revert from his Hulkish down blocking, to his very timid, Bruce Banner alter ego, struggling against the bull rush of guys he could conceivably have 100lbs on.
If I’m the Seahawks it’s really all about how I view my current group. Am I willing to bet on Gilliam at left tackle? If so, I take Ifedi because of his versatility and tremendous upside at multiple positions. If you want to add to the competition at left tackle you take Spriggs and hope that he can contribute elsewhere in the event that he loses out. I’m not convinced Spriggs is a viable option at guard, due to his lack of base power and inability to add much to his frame. There will likely be a steep learning curve with Spriggs at any position.
That being said, left tackle is the most valuable position on the line and we know Gilliam can contribute at other spots. Spriggs is a real TEF guy, rating as the most explosive pass blocker in this draft, while Ifedi’s poor bench press keeps him out of the Seahawks ideal zone, though he rated very similarly in both of the jumps despite weighing 25lbs heavier at the time.
Spriggs is a converted TE that will have a few rough spots to smooth out, but it’s apparent to me that he has all the tools to succeed at LT in Seattle and could provide a plus starter at other positions.
Ifedi on the other hand is a former guard that has actually gotten smaller since the transition. He played at 335 and still moved well. Ifedi is almost the total inverse of Spriggs in that he could be a pro bowler at every spot, but probably won’t compete for the blindside job.
Interesting take. Neither is perfect and could struggle this year. If we take spriggs he seems like he has a little more nasty in him which could help out the toughness of the line. Instead of competing at guard maybe he is better suited to challenge at right tackle and have Webb slide to lg.
What a great and detailed piece. Thank you, Kenny Sloth. An ice cold look indeed.
Both guys are imperfect.
Spriggs has more nasty, but less versatility, LT only. The mean streak is worth something as long as it can be properly applied. Don’t like that he whiffs. The comparison to Nate Solder gives me pause. Solder has been meh for NE.
Ifedi. Sounds like he’d be more of a Carpenter type. Less interesting, more prone to disappear into a rotational. Lack of fire is a concern.
Right now, I think I’d prefer Spriggs. Let him compete with Gilliam at LT, and Gilliam moves to another position if Spriggs makes the cut.
Spriggs has a problem recovering from bad positioning. Can this be fixed? Can’t have your starters lunging and flailing.
Spriggs ONLY allowed 2 sacks in 430 snaps. He also brings a little bit of a nastiness to the table. Will their be growing pains? Possibly but because of his nastiness and his athleticism he might have a higher ceiling then Ifedi. First round is probably Bullard, Spriggs or Ifedi.
Correction. Two sacks allowed on 430 pass plays.
Great breakdown with thorough analysis Kenny
*A MUST READ* – With so much emphasis on the O-Line (and rightfully so), there hasn’t been much discussion on a possible Hawks’ draft strategy that I believe to be a strong possibility – the Hawks double up at DT early in this draft. They somewhat did that in 2013 with Jordan Hill and Jesse Williams in R3 & R5. I think there’s a couple strong factors supporting why they will not only do this again, but perhaps take 2 in the first 4 rounds (or even 2 of their 4 top 100 picks).
The first reason is they are woefully thin on both talent and depth at DT, much more so than at any other point in the PCJS era. Rubin will be a solid run stuffer for the next 2 years, but that’s the closest thing they have to a long term option. Siliga has a 1 year contract, and is a replacement level talent. As of now, he’d slated to be the starting DT in the base defense beside Rubin. Jordan Hill’s contract expires after this season. As of now, he is scheduled to be the nickel DT beside Bennett (Frank Clark is now a DE-only after dropping so much weight). That’s a scary thought considering Hill’s inconsistency and extensive injury history. That’s all the Hawks have. The rest of the DT’s on the roster are UDFA/practice squad types who have never played any meaningful NFL snaps.
2 out of 4 DT positions are locked in – Rubin at base 3T and Bennett as 1 of the 2 nickel DTs. The other two spots (base 1T and the 2nd nickel DT pass rusher) are completely devoid of any type of difference-making talent or depth, for both the short and long term. This year, an injured Siliga or Hill would really hamper the defensive line, and an injury to Rubin or Bennett would be devastating. I would argue that the need for 2 quality DT’s is as high as the need for 2 quality OL’s to come from the first 3-to-4 rounds of this draft. They need a rookie DT who can compete with Siliga (300+ lbs pound run stuffer), and a rookie DT who can compete with Hill (either a NASCAR DT like Bennett/Bullard, or an athletic 300+ lbs DT who excelled as a pass-rusher in college).
The second reason is that DT is absolutely loaded in this draft. It has the best combo of talent & depth of any position. The best part is much of the day 1-2 talent has the type of athleticism the Seahawks look for. I did a little research on the Hawks DT’s over the past few seasons. All 3 draft picks that completed athletic testing (Hill, Williams & Jaye Howard) had a Sparq score of at least 109, which is solid. I also found full data on several young UDFA/practice squad DT’s they’ve picked up in the PCJS era, and the average Sparq score of that group is about 110 as well. The data also shows that the Hawks value agility as much as explosion on the defensive line. The one minimum requirement I found was the Hawks’ favorite test – a broad jump of at least 8’10”.
I expect any high DT draft pick (300+ lbs) would need to have a 110+ Sparq score and an 8’10+ broad. These indicators are by no means as conclusive as the TEF formula Rob tied to the Hawks OL, but the data does indicate that they would require that level of athleticism from any high DT draft pick. What’s more, the data on PCJS-era NASCAR DTs (270-290ish lbs) shows that the minimum Sparq score is 120, and those of the NASCAR DTs that have actually played meaningful snaps test at 130+ Sparq (Bennett, Clark, Clinton McDonald & Greg Scruggs). Below are some DT and then NASCAR candidates the Hawks may consider on days 1 & 2 of this draft, since they meet the likely requirements (Rankins and Buckner are excluded, as they’ll be long gone at 26). I think there’s a decent chance the Hawks draft 2 of these players in the first 3-4 rounds of the draft.
R1 – Chris Jones (116 Sparq, age: 21) – I’ve written lots about how high I am on him. He has a really strong Sparq score considering his elite length & frame. Outstanding burst and power as a pass rusher, and has the best 2015 tape of any interior player outside of Buckner IMO. Jones and Rankins are the only DTs capable of competing for snaps in both base & nickel from day 1.
R1 – Vernon Butler (~117 Sparq, age: 21) – The explosion he showed at his pro day at 320+ lbs is really impressive. He also has fantastic length and strong tape. Would compete for base DT snaps from day 1. He could be an impact run defender, and offer much more pass rushing upside than Rubin/Siliga on base run downs. He has the potential to develop into a rotational pass rusher in nickel packages. *Note* – besides McDaniel, the Hawks have never really had DTs as tall as Jones & Butler. It remains to be seen if they value the 6’1”-6’3” range more for optimum leverage/bend. It is very interesting that Butler had dinner with the Seahawks brass the night before his pro day, even before he measured so impressively in the broad/vertical.
R1 – Andrew Billings (106 Sparq, age: 21) – Doesn’t meet the estimated Sparq minimum, but he matches the size/athleticism/power combo of Mebane so I’m including him. Has potential in both facets, but would require a lot of coaching to play with the gap discipline required by Hawks’ base DTs.
R2/3 – Javon Hargrave (120 Sparq, age: 23) – Really intriguing. His explosion and advanced pass rush moves already make him a strong pass rusher, even at 310 lbs. His swim move is a thing of beauty. He’s too undisciplined on tape for what the Hawks look for as a base run-stuffing DT, but he fits the short/squatty/powerful size profile that Carroll is on record saying he likes for his base 1-Tech. Good coaching and development could make him an impact player on both run & pass downs, although I think he could compete from day 1 (especially as a pass rusher).
R2/3 – Hassan Ridgeway (~123 Sparq, age: unknown) – The Hawks are probably drooling over his pro day 3-cone of 7.37 at 300+ lbs. Has strong tape and good production considering he only played about 50% of snaps at Texas the last 2 years. Isn’t talked about much but could go in the 2nd round.
R3 – Willie Henry (111 Sparq, age: 22) & Maliek Collins (110 Sparq, age: 21) – Both are solid athletes with good tape. Collins just turned 21 on April 8th. I think the lack of standout athletic testing makes them both more likely round 3 than round 2 targets of the Seahawks. Jordan Hill went 3rd round with a 109 Sparq score, similar explosion/agility and comparable college production to Henry & Collins.
R1 – Robert Nkemdiche (131 Sparq, age: 21) & Jonathan Bullard (127 Sparq, age: 22) – Both are extremely athletic, particularly Nkem. Nkem is the better pass rusher while Bullard is better against the run. Nkem played DT mainly in college, while Bullard mostly played on the edge. Each of their weaknesses could become strengths – Nkem could be a better run defender playing DE in base, and Bullard showed more pass rush juice when he lined up inside. Who knows if the Hawks would consider a “unique” character like Nkem, but we know they like Bullard.
R2 & R3 – Bronson Kaufusi (124 Sparq, age: 24) & Dean Lowry (130 Sparq, age: unknown) – Both tested well, have good tape, and played on the EDGE in college. Lowry’s T-rex arms may eliminate him from consideration, although there isn’t enough data on Hawks’ DT arm length to say conclusively.
It’s worth noting that Emmanuel Ogbah, Shaq Lawson & Charles Tapper all meet the NASCAR DT weight threshold of 270 lbs, and all tested 130+ Sparq. They profile as EDGE rushers in the NFL, but that didn’t stop the Hawks from drafting Frank Clark and rushing him from the interior as a rookie.
Are you sure these SPARQ scores are accurate JT?
Vernon Butler, according to SPARQ, is in the 23rd percentile. I’ve also not seen anything on a Seahawks meeting (is there a link to that info?).
They haven’t drafted a DT earlier than R3 so I think any guy they take in R1-2 better be freaky athletic. I’m just not sure there are that many out there this year after Sheldon Rankins leaves the board.
Hey Rob, thanks for commenting. I agree that any first or second round DT would have to be a special athlete (Rankins/Ridgeway/Hargrave), or have strong athleticism to go with a great frame/length (Jones/Butler). Butler tested in the 23rd percentile at the combine, but greatly improved his broad, vertical, and 10 split at his pro day. By comparing his new numbers with Zach Whitman’s database on 3sigmaathlete.com, I was able to estimate what his updated Sparq score will be. We will have to wait for Zach to update his 2016 database, but I have a very high confidence that Butler’s new Sparq score will be 117 (plus or minus 2 points for error in estimation). I did this with Ridgeway as well, since his pro day agility times were greatly improved.
Honestly, it’s one of the reasons I don’t like that the Seahawks put so much stock into the combine numbers, look at Vernon Butler and Britt, terrible in the combine, markedly improved in their pro day. If a player is crossed off because he didn’t perform well, he may actually be a great athlete. Put stock in it for sure, but if they really have a 3.0 TEF or a 32 inch CB cutoff, seems like they could be missing out.
Lanterman – on the contrary, the Seahawks don’t apply their “cutoffs” to just combine testing. They have shown repeatedly that they put a lot of stock in pro day numbers. Britt is a prime example. He wouldn’t have come close to meeting the TEF requirement with just combine numbers. Unfortunately for Hawks fans, he did meet the minimum at his pro day, and the Hawks burned a high draft pick reaching for their ideal athlete on the OL.
” Unfortunately for Hawks fans, he did meet the minimum at his pro day, and the Hawks burned a high draft pick reaching for their ideal athlete on the OL.”
That’s just totally incorrect.
He wasn’t their ideal. He was however the last guy on the board that fit their athletic criteria.
Your wording implies that they coveted him specifically. When it’s been pretty clear even at the time we drafted him, as well as Schneider’s comments this week – that we were compelled to take him. That the OT talent basically dropped off the map after him.
And if you look at all the OTs taken after Britt (and before we took Garrett Scott), you’ll see that confirmed. As bad as Britt may be, he was by far the best remaining OT in the entire draft after #64. And fared better than a handful of guys taken ahead of him.
Britt wasn’t the ideal. He was the lemonade out of the remaining lemons.
This continued fantasy that we’re actively looking for the Britt’s and the Carpenters of the draft has to stop. It’s complete nonsense. You guys sound like petulant children. It’s been offered repeatedly (by the team) that these picks were forced. That happens to all teams.
Honestly the fact that these forced picks have managed to outplay they guys picked after them and some of those picked ahead of them is reassuring.
Seems like the O line talent dipped before him…. he’s terrible! Lol
Poor wording on my part. They badly reached for the last remaining explosive OT.
Britt has just been brutal for 2 straight years now. His name jumps out compared to OTs taken after him mostly because he’s actually been given the opportunity to play where other picks have not – which is more of an idictment of the Hawks OL competition than it is a credit of Britt’s performance.
Had dinner with them on the 21st: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000646672/article/coaches-from-jets-lions-put-vernon-butler-though-workout
Yep, they took him out to dinner the night before his pro day, and then Butler proceeded to knock his pro day athletic tests out of the park the next day. He’s a rare physical specimen at 6’4, 323, with great length, power and movement skills. His Sparq score, when combined with fantastic length, could put him squarely in the R1 consideration for Seattle.
not too mention his impressive tape as a run defender! while showing some pass rush upside
I actually agree that the Seahawks should double dip on DTs early. But unless it’s Sheldon Rankins, I don’t see the Seahawks in love with anyone else that they would spend their 1st round pick on. And as much I like Spriggs as our future LT, I can see Tom Cable passing on him. So that leaves us with a trade down, which I would really love. Even if it’s just 2 picks, for example, our #26 for JAX’s #38 and #69, this would be ideal. With more draft picks, I suggest:
#38 – Chris Jones (Although I would prefer Kenny Clark if available)
#56 – Connor McGovern
#69 – Kyler Fackrell
#90 – Javon Hargrave / Willie Henry
#97 – Joe Dahl
What do you guys think? A trade down scenario no matter what, if Sheldon Rankins is gone.
Certainly possible. With the way teams value a high quantity of draft picks, it’ll be tough to trade down that far though.
Btw, Clark is a quality run defender and the youngest DT in this draft. However he fails to meet the likely SPARQ requirement (106 < 110), and the likely broad jump requirement (8'6" < 8'10"). As such, I think the chances the Hawks draft him are next to nil.
I think a trade down will happen, given your scenario with JAX I’d *hope* to go:
38 J. Bullard (might be optimistic)
56 K. Fackrell
69 L. Clark
90 C. McGovern
97 W. Henry (also optimistic)/Dahl
I’m a fan of Deion Jones too around that 56-69 range.
Not sure I love Spriggs enough to warrant taking him at 26, Conklin, Decker, Ifedi probably go before pick 26.
JT, it would be rational and reasonable to split the emphasis at the top on OL and DL. But when you consider Cable’s process, it is also possible they forsake the o-linemen early. Dangerous, but possible. This would open up the possibility for your double down d-line scenario.
The front d-line is iffy as of today. I have so-so confidence in Siliga, who is backup quality. Hill can’t stay healthy. J.Williams, backup.
Are the Hawks done with free agency for the d-line? It scrolls me to see Pot Roast Knighton signing with NE for a contract that will amount to something around $2.5M. Essentially a huge discount. Why didn’t JSPC make a call to him? Imagine Rubin+Knighton. Impenetrable.
How do you know they didn’t reach out to Knighton? Not everything this front office does is leaked. We aren’t the 49ers, after all.
HE HAS HAD WEIGHT ISSUES EVERYWHERE THEY ARENT INTERESTED IN GUYS THAT NEED TO BE MOTIVATED.
Couldn’t agree more with everything you said Steele. I want them to go O-Line early and often as much as anyone, but I feel they should do the same on the D-Line. I actually think it’s just as, or even more likely that they take 2 DT’s before they take the 2nd OL – the 2013 champs had an unreal amount of talent and depth on the DL, and only a mediocre OL (at best). DT could be the priority.
The point of my short post (ha) was to simply show who the Hawks would consider in Rounds 1-4 at DT, since the lack of depth & talent is unlike anything the Hawks have experienced in the PCJS era
To my untrained eye Jordan Hill has actually improved more as a base down guy than as a pass rusher. He’s no Mebane, but I wonder if we won’t see him competing for more base down snaps next year. His health, like you said, is part of the problem.
That’s part of the reason why I like Bullard so much. He could be a true 3 down lineman, making it less of a need to use 2 early picks on the DL. I think a DT group of Rubin-Hill-Siliga-Francis and a DE core of Bennett-Avril-Clark-Bullard is a great starting point. Of course, I wouldn’t be opposed to simply going quality over quantity and trying to trade up for a guy like Rankins, although the price would probably be way too steep.
The issue with taking Bullard and no one else is that he won’t be a 3 down player for at least the next 2 seasons. He’s not going to start in their base 4-3 run defense, unless Rubin switches over to 1-tech (which is unlikely). Even so, the Hawks have never had a player near as light as Bullard (285 lbs) play DT is their base defense. He could rotate in a bit at DE in their base defense since he’s a great run defender, but that means sending either Bennett or Avril to the bench. Bullard’s initial value would come as an interior pass rusher in nickel, and an occasional rotation DE in base sets.
Hill has always been a nickel pass rusher for Seattle and nothing more. Going into the season without providing competition/depth for Siliga at DT would be scary. Any injury to Rubin or even Siliga would really hurt their run defense, with only a pass rusher in Hill or UDFA types like Francis to play in base.
The Hawks have always had fantastic talent & depth on the DLine in the PCJS era. They prioritize it as much as any position group. They are likely to provide competition at both base DT and nickel DT with 2 DT picks early on in this draft.
I think Bullard could play on all 3 downs for this team his rookie year. Will he? Of course not, with guys like Rubin, Bennett, Avril, Clark, etc. But the fact that he has the potential to do so is a huge bonus IMHO.
I see Bullard’s ability as a run package DE as being undervalued. Avril is no slouch against the run given his primary role as a pass rusher. That said, I think Bullard would be even better against the run before sliding inside on passing downs. Save Avril for what he does best. No, drafting a run stuffing only 3 tech with a first round pick isn’t going to happen with PCJS. But I think it’s Bullard’s versatility that gives him so much potential.
IIRC we usually carry 4 true DT’s on the roster, which can make outside-in players like Bullard that much more valuable to us. Right now we have Rubin-Hill-Siliga-Francis. Not exactly a murderers row, so they will of course bring in players to compete at the position. But there’s no way I can see us going DT-DT in the first 2 rounds. Honestly, with how our front office zigs when we think they will zag, I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t take a true DT until our 3rd pick or later.
I completely agree with your previous post about getting the defense back close to the level we had in 2013 as being a key goal. Do that, and you can still win despite poor-to-mediocre OL play. And I think we could be closer to getting back to that sort of dominance than we might realize.
Perhaps Francis is the guy to challenge Siliga? I think the Seahawks probably like what they have in AJ.
I certainly wouldn’t advocate for drafting Bullard and then calling it good for the DL. But there are certain to be guys our front office likes who they think will go in day 3 or be an UDFA. Don’t forget how thin we were at DL at the end of the 2014 season and in the playoffs; we essentially had to sign at least one guy off the street to be on the Super Bowl roster. Looking at the bright side I think our DL is in a better position than we were then, and we were 1 play away from winning it all. Finding that key player for the DL could be the single most important move we can make the rest of the offseason. Who that might be is obviously the big question.
I’ve been thinking all year long Seattle is probably going to take a DT relatively high this year. Love that they met with Vernon Butler, and Jonathan Bullard. Both players play with a high level of bad ass.
Maybe it’s just me, but I’m not entirely unconvinced Bullard couldn’t be a 3 down player at DT down the line. He’s said a few times that he prefers playing 3 tech. Aaron Donald plays at about the same weight. Granted, Bullard isn’t Donald, but he plays the run stout, shows disciple, and rushes well inside. Very fiery competitor as well. I could see a natural chip on his shoulder listening to pundits talk about him as if he’s merely a rotational inside guy. He might start off rotational, but if he adds another 10 pounds or so, then you are looking someone built like a classic 3 tech, not really that undersized at all.
It’s very true that the Pete Carroll Seahawks prefer big bodies in the middle on base downs, but Carroll also recognizes talent when he sees it and adjusts to fit the talent. At USC, he always had tall pocket QBs and tall WRs. How many of them do you see on this roster?
I freely admit that I’m on the Bullard hype train. He obviously won’t be the interior presence that Aaorn Donald is. But I’m not sure we need the next AD to to make what could be the most dominating defense since the ’85 Bears. We just need the right piece, and Bullard could be it. He really does seem like he could be a Michael Bennett in the making, only IMHO he’s way ahead of Bennett when he was the same age. Bullard’s best football is ahead of him, and I think he could have a synergistic effect on our DL.
I totally agree.
Great points Stink & C-Dog. I’m a big Bullsrd fan too, and I agree that he has the ability to contribute on every down right away. Just not the opportunity. We shouldn’t forget that Clark is a promising run defender at DE as well, and that the path to being an early down 3-tech is cloudy (2 years of Rubin + uncertainty that Seattle will play a 285 lb DT as base 3-tech).
Bullsrd would be a solid 1st rounder if they take him, but I still think they’d need to add a true DT (300+ lbs) like Hargrave, Ridgeway, Henry or Collins in round 3 or 4.
One thing no one is mentioning is that the Seahawks are going to be playing Chip Kelly at least twice a year going forward which means, in all likelihood, a decrease in overall base D snaps or potentially a hybrid shift to get more guys who can both be stout against the run at 1 and 3-tech while still being able to rush the passer on 3rd down if substitution isn’t possible. Jordan Hill is a nice example of this as he has filled in admirably at 1-tech in base D over the past 2 years when Mebane has been out while also providing a good push up the middle in passing situations.
I hadn’t gotten a good look at Hill last year. Thanks for the update
This is really well done, good read. Thx for the time you put into it.
Thank you, it means a great deal, sincerely.
What do you mean there isn’t enough data on Seattle’s DT arm length?
They’ve taken one guy with 32″ arms. Jesse Williams.
Everyone else is 33″ inches. Jimmy Staten was 34″.
The Hawks have made very few draft picks at DT, so that sample size is pretty small. Out of all the young players I looked at to figure out what the Hawks look for in a DT, most of them were UDFAs with no data available on their arm lengths.
Jordan Hill, Jesse Williams, Jaye Howard, Pep Livingston, Jimmy Staten, Greg Scruggs.
All the DTs they’ve brought in to the VMAC pre-draft, had at least 32″ arms as well.
There’s a trend there my man.
The 2 DTs they’ve met with, Butler and Reader, their arm length isn’t coincidental.
If we’re talking UDFAs sure, but I can’t see them spending a draft pick on a D-lineman that doesn’t have 32″ arms.
Thanks, I didn’t have the arm length’s on Scruggs and Livingston, nor several other UDFAs.
I agree that 32″ is probably the bare minimum, with 33+ being the preference
Also JT, you will want to revisit the VMAC visit list. Those are made up mostly of guys we are considering on day 3. The guys we are interested in but don’t ultimately add increase the data pool considerably.
When you look at that list too, you pretty much double the number of candidates. And they are all long. You could add David Irving, Tory Slater and a host of other candidates over the years.
Gotta figure there are close to 5-7 DTs every year whose measuarables should be available that we’ve shown interest in. That is quite a good number, this being the 7th offseason for PCJS now.
I think it’s important to determine if Sealver Siliga is good enough to replace Mebane as the 1-2 down run stuffer. I don’t think he is.
He was just okay for NE, lost his starting job because he lost contain too many times. NE is loaded at D-line now, an embarrasment of talent, and they just signed another one today. Siliga was diminishing returns for them. He’s a rotational but cannot be relied on.
If the Hawks had a reliable starter next to Rubin, they could focus on finding the sub-rusher. I worry that they need more than one guy if Siliga isn’t Mebane level.
Siliga is not on Mebane’s level, and he’s on a 1 year contract. They need to bring in a talented rookie from this quality DT class to compete with him, and provide depth at the very least.
Rob’s formula, when applied to the group of Interior D-Linemen available in this Draft, revealed that only Rankins has the explosion necessary to predict consistent dominance over NFL O-Linemen. To get him would likely require both #26 8, and probably something from next year. A high cost, but having a 3 down Difference Maker in the middle of the Defense would be worth it.
And that scenario would leave the Seahawks with plenty of picks for the O-Line. In fact Rob’s formula reveals plausible physical specimen in every Round. If Spriggs and Ifedi are works in progress, why spend a 1st rounder on them anyway? A first rounder earns somewhere around $2 million. The whole O-Line makes $6.2 million. How would that work?
The large class of Defensive lineman also allows for a later round pick of better than usual quality. Guys like Zimmer(Ferris St.) and Barr III are going to play in this League.
Rob’s TEF formula is a gem… for predicting which players the Seahawks will consider drafting on the offensive line. That’s why he developed it. He found it based on the theory that the Seahawks value explosion more than anything from their blockers, since defensive linemen are naturally more explosive than the average offensive lineman.
TEF is a magnificent formula, but we shouldn’t confuse it with anything other than what it is – a way to predict which OL’s the Seahawks will consider drafting. There’s actually no data (at this point) that shows that high TEF = better player, other than the intuitive thought that more explosive players are generally more athletic. However there are other components of athleticism besides explosion – size, power, agility. Unlike with the blockers, the Hawks value agility & burst as much as explosion on the defensive line. TEF in no way incorporates agility scores (3cone/shuttle), or burst (10 yard split). For that reason, TEF is a very poor indicator of which prospects they will consider drafting to play DT. Sparq is a much better indicator for the Hawks tendencies on the DL, since it incorporates agility and size with explosion.
My research showed that for the Hawks to consider drafting a DT, they would very likely require the player to have a 110+ Sparq score, and at least a 8’10” broad jump. For them to consider drafting an outside-in NASCAR rusher like Michael Bennett, they are very likely to require a Sparq score of at least 120 (and more likely 130+).
If you’re scouting NT’s they like short bowling ball guys there.
Hill and mebane are each 6’1-2
Carroll is on record saying he likes shorter, squatty powerful bowling ball types for 1-Tech like you said. Mebane was ideal in that role. Hill has never been a 1T for the Seahawks however.
I think Hill only plays 1 tech in the nickle, since Mebane was holding that spot down. I believe he started next to Tony McDaniel who is longer like his ideal 3 tech
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/9/2/9058045/seattle-seahawks-jordan-hill-breakout-season-2015
Here is an article outlining Hill and his role with the team which includes rushing from in between the center and guard
I was referring to Hill never being a 1-tech in their base run defense. That’s where the gap integrity is so important. He has never played that position for Seattle, and he’s not gonna start this year. Sure, he lines up inside in nickel, but no gap integrity-run focus is required from him or anyone else – they all just pin their ears back and rush the passer.
Please, Excuse me, JT. He has played at both tackle spots in relief and does only play 1 tech in the nickle.
Hill has played 1-tech in base D before.
As a backup/fill-in. He’s more of a nickel pass rusher, but he’s often neither – just injured
Hill started at 1 tech against the Bengals and played pretty well. I heard him on the KJR dial early in training camp saying he’s a nose tackle. I think he actually played the run pretty well this year before he got injured.. again. That’s my biggest issue with Hill. In three years, never stayed healthy enough to play a full season, even for a rotational player.
Nice write up Kenny and I think you have summed up both guys pretty well. That is why I am really hoping Shon Coleman tests well when he has his personal pro day. He would be the ideal RT IMO in our scheme and is a much nastier player than Spriggs or Ifedi.
I really think the Hawks are confident in Gilliams potential to be a quality LT so I think if they go OL in round #1 it will be for a RT/ LG. Likely that guy will be Ifedi but I am really hoping for Shon Coleman.
Hawks have seemed to steer away from any injury history in the early rounds. Doubt they bite on Coleman before 56, just a guess
Thanks for your piece, Kenny. Nice break down.
As far as the Hawks avoiding injured players in the early rounds, I wish that was their philosophy with Paul Richardson. Multiple knee injuries in college and a frail frame that wasn’t going to translate to the NFL. Worse: we could have had Allen Robinson 🙁
Due to Carroll s positivity I think the Seahawks tend to trust in recoveries more than they should. Injury recidivism is real.
I knew I was forgetting someone! That 2nd ACL worried me, but I don’t think he lost any burst from it. Just came back too soon and injured his hamstring.
Hopefully he balls out as the #4 this year. Gotta earn that spot back.
Thanks for the article Kenny.
I predicted Richardson would be hurt in his first game back. Not because of the notion he is injury prone, but because it is so very common after a major injury. The surrounding muscles are used, stressed, comprimised, etc trying to compensate for the injury over a long period of time. It happens almost every time. I wish the hawks had allowed for several more weeks of practice and training before putting him back out there.
Carroll was on the fence about bringing Paul back for weeks. He kept saying he wasn’t ready, but i bet he reeeally didn’t want to lose to Arizona.
One negative to Carroll is he can be extremely overzealous in his evaluations and decision making.
Makes for dramatic ball, though.
Favorite Seahawks memory; went to raiders preseason at clink. Carroll had won a challenge early in the first half and the crowd was going crazy on idk like a fumble loss or something.
Carroll walked onto thd field turned his back to me and dropped the challenge flag all thuglike and walked off like a big shot.
The call stood, but I’ve never felt more important as a fan in my whole life.
Well, they also like toughness and grit. When you get hurt, play for a couple weeks, find out you didn’t tweak your knee but partially tore the MCL — only to get back on the field after a couple weeks rest for your rivalry week. I’m guessing that’ll go a long way in the plus side.
I think the defensive interior will be adressed twice in the first three rounds. I say go offensive line in the first, and then Butler and Henry in the second and third.
I would even approve of drafting Bullard and Butler, and waiting untill round three to address the offensive line.
Unfortunately there is as much chance of Butler falling to 56 as there is of Rankins falling to 26. He’s a great athlete with ideal physical traits, was a really good college player, and was invited to the draft. He’s going in the first round. Book it.
I would like to see at least one pick in the first 3 invested in our interior dl. Rubin ain’t getting younger and Hill’s role and potential seem ever diminishing
I kinda think there’s a good chance Willie Henry and Vernon Butler will both be long gone by 56. At 56, you’re probably getting into Austin Johnson, Javon Hargrave, Hassan Ridgeway turf. At 90, probably looking at Adolphus Washington, Malik Collins, Robert Blair, DJ Reader.
I think it’s more likely Henry lasts until the end of the third round than he gets drafted before 56.
What I found researching the Hawks tendencies for young DTs essentially eliminates players like Johnson, Washington, Blair & Reader from consideration.
They met with Reader at the Combine, though. He’s an interesting player. Moves pretty well for an enormous man.
He doesn’t meet the minimums I found, but then again, no DTs in the sample were particularly close to Reader’s size except for Jess Williams. Maybe they would consider him on day 3
Kenny you nailed my takes on both guys. Really solid study. Great, meaty content. In regards to this, that is what makes me say that Spriggs or Coleman is the guy. A guy who can be a legit LT or RT is priceless for us. Ifedi will be a G and that is it. And he will take a ton of coaching to correct what his deficiencies are if they an be corrected at all. Hand placement and playing tall are often death nails for guys who don’t have elite power and lateral agility. With Spriggs, his whole scheme is going to change and the things he is deficient in can change naturally while adjusting to a new offense. Coleman as well, but it is so hard to wven qualify him without him testing. Great piece. I think he have to go Spriggs if he is there. Otherwise the gamble is too high for a guy who will have to do an entire 180
I think I’d have to agree with you on Ifedi. Probably best at guard at the next level. I do think he has the lateral agility to play tackle at the next level, but you probably keep him at guard
I’d tentatively say that Ifedi’s potential at Guard is higher than Spriggs’ at tackle.
Since you watch a lot of tape I’m curious whether you notice taller guards/centers taking a half second longer to get into their stances vs shorter? Since it’s a leverage battle in the trenches, low man generally wins. But if you have a longer torso and it takes a tad longer to set up for a guy like 6’6″ Britt vs guys 6’2″ like Aaron Donald, Star Lotulaleile, Mebane, etc. then how can you be low man and win the leverage battle? I know there are taller guards that are successful and can set up quickly but it still seems like we should prefer guards/centers to be between 6’2″ – 6″4″? Thoughts?
Well, regardless of height, one of the first things you look for is to see if they bend at the knee to get underneath the oppositions pads. this allows them to explode slightly upwards using their height advantage.
I would have to say that length can be an asset to any properly coached OL.
Seattle, I believe has a tendency towards taller interior lineman.
Really good question.
Saxon, yes taller guards typically take longer to get outta their stance.
‘How can you be low man and win the leverage battle, if your taller?’
It all starts with his center of gravity, is he able to sink his hips and explode outta his stance? This is where TEF comes into play.
How is his foot speed? Can he quickly get into his run and pass fits?
Great write up Kenny. I’m right with you on Ifedi’s upside at Guard. I kind of think the Hawks could to looking more at interior OL in this draft anyways with the way the Rams, Vikings, and Panthers kind of tore apart the interior of our line in the last few games of the season. But I think they question might be whether Cable impressed enough with the Hulk that the take him, or so annoyed with his Bruce Banner that they select Spriggs or Bullard if either is still there.
I wrote this whole damn thing and I’m still flip flopping.
Yeah, I know the feeling. I guess I’ve finally bought into the Gilliam to LT traction that’s been going on for months. Spriggs, to me, is another TE convert, don’t see him playing inside, does selecting him put Gilliam back at RT, or does Spriggs go to RT? They are paying Webb a fair amount of money to then be a backup. I wouldn’t be angry with the Spriggs pick, but as the season went on for Seattle, the issues seemed more with the interior parts of the line going against dominant interior linemen on the D. I think the blue print to effect RW is to get pressure inside, and the Seahawks probably more than recognize that. That has me thinking Ifedi over Spriggs in a heart beat. But is Ifedi a Tom Cable guy? Very possibly, if he thinks he can diminish the Banner qualities, and fix the issues. Cable, I think, values attitude as well. Does Ifedi have grit? McGovern and Dahl both seem like Cable guys to me, which has me thinking DL at 26 could be very likely, and OL after.
It’s Ifedi’s feet. He’s an ‘under-stepper.’
Fix your feet and the hands will follow.
Great analysis and comments. The Seahawks, of course, won’t do any of this. They are most likely to trade back out of the first round and then take some defensive and offensive linemen that practically nobody ever heard of.
Thanks for the feedback, guys. I’m open to constructive criticism, here, so don’t be shy. Anything I missed? Any other prospects you would like to see an in depth breakdown on?
This is an excellent read Kenny. A great comparison of what I would almost consider our only two realistic OT draft prospects in the first round – Taking into consideration Rob’s TEF formula (the ‘formula’ is redundant ;)) and who is healthy and available. Thanks!
I like thinking of it like they’re TEF guys, they are really TEF. High TEFness.
Are you TEF enef?
When the going gets TEF… The TEF get going!
Cable practices TEF love.
TEFfing awesome!
While I pretty much read every comment, I don’t comment a whole lot. I like the idea of Rob letting his main commenters do a guest piece here and there. Rob if you read this, I think this will add value to the draft. I love the SDB community, it has become a part of my everyday ritual and I value every comment-at least the ones within reason-. I appreciate the time people spend researching and posting, Rob really does have a great following.
Kenny, constructive criticism? How about do more of these? This was just about perfect, I love how brutally honest you were with your evaluations. It’s a good reminder that while it may be a deep draft for the O-line, we’re still picking 26th. Job well done.
I think I’ll do a shorter one on Fackrell only because he’s been so divisive on the blog this last month. See if we can’t figure that guy out.
I see you commenting haha! I don’t really contribute until after the combine.
Anyone else you would like to see a write-up on?
Would love one on Fackrell, to see your point of view…and you know, compare it to Bobby’s haha. I’d also really like an ‘ice cold take’ on McGovern-if you’re asking. Even though I think everybody here wants him to be a Seahawk, would be really interesting. Thx
Hell yeah! I’ll do a McGovern one with a blurb on Boehm, whom the Hawks seem to at least have had interest in.
Yes, please. I’m one of those who would love to see the Seahawks draft Fackrell. Aside from Fackrell, I only have Travis Freeney on my list as potential OLB for the Seahawks. Other than those two, I say we stick with Cassius, Mike Morgan, and maybe some Frank Clark combination.
Just perusing some rankings,
Kyrie Wilson Fresno State pro day
6’1.5 228, 4.60 1.64 40 and 10 yard, pressed 23 reps, jumped 40.5″ and 10’02 4.43 and a 6.99
No combine invite
Aaron Wilson UCLA pro day
6’3 242, 4.59 1.58 40 and 10 yard, pressed 25 reps, jumped 36 and 10’10, 4.27 and a 7.45
“Completely different player from the BYU game to the USC game. He has some talent but he’s like a sophomore in terms of his linebacker instincts. I dont know if that will change with experience or not.” — NFC West scout
Can’t find anything on Aaron Wilson. Kyrie Wilson is a 6-7 Round according to Tony Pauline. His pro day numbers look good. Really great vertical jump! Last year, he only faced 1 top offensive team IMO and that’s Ole Miss. Stats show he’s good enough for consideration in the later rounds. Do you have any tape of him?
That’s because it’s Aaron Wallace.
Pull up some DT Kenny Clark tape, and watch the SAM ‘backer.
My b.
Think that’s Aaron Wallace Kenny, who I think could be in consideration for Seahawks
Too right.
Great breakdown Kenny! Enjoyed it!
Very nice write-up, love the detailed analysis!
Trying to see the bigger picture, Ifedi is purely an OG/ROT guy, which can be had in R2 or R3 (Connor McGovern?). Spriggs is a rare athlete who plays all-out. Kenny’s analysis suggests to me that Spriggs problems with inside moves are probably due to fundamentals that Cable can fix. Picking late R1 every year, this will be the Seahawks one and only chance for a left tackle with this sparq skill set, so unless they are certain that Gilliam is the guy, they go with Spriggs. I honestly think the left/right OT distinction is conventional wisdom that doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. Look how many teams now put their top DE across from the right tackle (see Von Miller and JJ Watt). I want a pass blocking OT on both the left and the right, forget the Brenno Giacomini’s.
Rob Rang suggested today that his review of Seattle’s OL problems showed him that our biggest issue was with top DTs such as Aaron Donald, not the flash DE guys. And he therefore thinks Seattle will select Ryan Kelly, an elite leader, top level athlete for a C, and unusually skilled in pass blocking for a center.
I cannot get behind a Ryan Kelly pick. They have one of the most athletic center prospects in the world and I’m supposed to believe they’ll grab an average athlete representing a minimal upgrade over Patrick Lewis. Not a road grader, I just don’t see the value of drafting a Center that high. Snaps it cleanly though.
I hate watching center tape, because I have to watch every game at least twice.
Evan Boehm from Mizzou snaps horribly, but is a great run blocker. Could make it as a guard potentially.
I wouldn’t call Ryan Kelly a minimal upgrade just because his TEF score isn’t high.
General consensus is that Alex Mack is the best center (or one of the best) in the league
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=56532&draftyear=2009&genpos=C
VJ 28.5
BJ: 8’10”
BP: 20
TEF: 2.61
And that’s his pro day, not the nfl combine.
Another pro bowler: Ryan Kalil
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=15677&draftyear=2007&genpos=C
VJ: 26
BJ: 8’08”
BP: 34
TEF: 2.99, but heavily BP driven
Another pro bowler
Travis Frederick
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=90293&draftyear=2013&genpos=C
VJ 28.5
BJ 8’01”
BP: 21
TEF 2.42
Mike Pouncey
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=71387&draftyear=2011&genpos=OG
VJ: 25
BJ: 8;00″
BP: 24
TEF: 2.4
That said, I wouldn’t want Ryan Kelly in the first. Both because I believe he’s overrated, and I don’t want a center in the first.
Good points!
Gilliam-McGovern-Sokoli-Glowinski-Spriggs
I like it! The most athletic o-line in the league.
I will repeat this chant until draft night:
Gilliam-McGovern-Sokoli-Glowinski-Spriggs…
Gilliam-McGovern-Sokoli-Glowinski-Spriggs…
Gilliam-McGovern-Sokoli-Glowinski-Spriggs…
Thanks, Kenny! If I could offer a suggestion: maybe you could put in the links to the game tape you write about if they’re available on YouTube and if it wouldn’t be too much trouble for you.
Personally, I am becoming more and more convinced that we go Defense or Derrick Henry with our first pick (be that in R1 or after a trade down). Spriggs and Ifedi have good upside, but I’m thinking interior OL (LG,C) is what needs to be upgraded, and there seem to be good candidates for that in R2-R4, plus throw in the usual late-round OL conversion project. Something like:
R1- Butler/Bullard/D. Henry (Rankins/Lee/Neal if they fall)
R2- McGovern (or maybe LB if they think McGovern will last till R3; Coleman might be there at 56 too)
R3- (McGovern)/Dahl/Haeg
R3 Comp- Ervin
R4- (Dahl/Haeg)
No OL in first two rounds is not the most popular projection here in our SDB community, but may be the best value. I’m certainly not against OL in R1 either and understand it is their self-confessed priority, but they realistically may be able to get it done without using our first, or even our first two picks. Sure, it implies a calculated risk, but it is precisely these kind of risks that JS has been willing to take and that have given us great value while still getting players we want (waiting on Wilson until R3, for example, allowed us to get Wagner).
Yes, Britts can happen too when they risk it, you will say. But JS admitted (and Rob has shown through TEF) that the 2014 draft in particular had a huge cliff, whereas in this draft there are viable options for the Hawks on OL all the way through.
Thanks to Rob and to all for the awesome and well thought-out discussions. I love this site!
Good post, and I agree! While I’m intrigued by getting McGovern and Spriggs and just having a totally tricked-out offensive line, there’s good value into the mid-rounds, especially for an OL that skews towards zone blocking.
Bullard and Neal are DL and DB versions of each other, in that if selected by the Hawks, neither would start this year, and it would be out of total luxury that PC/JS draft either of them. Unfortunately there are other, more urgent needs to fill, such as:
– obviously, OL
– DT, both in terms of pass-rushing and run-stuffing
– also need a BIG WR, maybe that German kid?
– Tyler Ervin – I’d be upset if he wasn’t drafted
– convert DL to OL like Justin Zimmer
– also intrigued by athletic freaks like DT Brandin Bryant
Maybe some would see those as luxury picks, but the Hawks have consistently drafted for future needs ahead of time from what I understand. It makes you a better team in the long run if you draft better players, even the ones you won’t need immediately. Most rookies, even the very good ones, benefit from being phased in gradually their first year anyway.
As for the “urgent needs” you mention, I’m not seeing how they go against what I was proposing:
– obviously, OL (exactly what I argued could be addressed in R2-R4)
– DT, both in terms of pass-rushing and run-stuffing (how does Bullard not help meet this need? Run stuffers should be available in R5 too)
– also need a BIG WR, maybe that German kid? (just on this, I have to disagree it is a need. We have done just fine without it and have Graham. If they find one, great, if not, oh well)
– Tyler Ervin – I’d be upset if he wasn’t drafted (yeah, he’s in my mock)
– convert DL to OL like Justin Zimmer (agree, that’s what late rounds are for)
– also intrigued by athletic freaks like DT Brandin Bryant (idem. later rounds)
Thank you for the feedback I can totally do. 😉
Great! If it’s all the same you might even just “copy link at current time” on the video to send us straight to a significant play or drive. That would be cool IMO.
IMO Seattle was way ahead of the curve when it came to hybrid LB/S.
Essentially what ‘Bam Bam’ is in a way.
And I’m staring at a name already on the roster that fits that profie to a tee.
Pinkins I imagine? Is this supposed to be an argument against possibly taking Neal?
It is Pinkins.
Not at all.
I think Keanu Neal is a fantastic player, but the more I think about it, the more I belive that Seattle has this guy. 2 of them actually.
They’ve tried making Pinkins the next Brandon Browner his rookie year and that didn’t work and they at least thought he had more potential at SAM than at safety, otherwise he would have played there last year and they wouldn’t have traded for Kelcie McCray.
I agree that we shouldn’t draft Neal. I like him as a player but I don’t think we need him as of now. If we were to draft a Safety in the later rounds, even as an experiment, I really like TJ Greene. I feel like with a bit of coaching, he’s going to be a great Safety. Maybe our future FS? Unless we want all our FS to be in the mold of ET going forward…
Pinkins has done nothing at all, and they moved him to SAM to try to find a spot where he could do anything. Did you see him play at Corner/Safety his rookie year? I saw some camp footage and preseason, and the guy was horrible. Just totally unable to cover.
Chancellor is always banged up, and his cap balloons in 2018. He’s usually a liability in coverage, and teams have learned how to exploit his lack of speed. I would say its High Time for Seattle to draft his eventual replacement–if not this Draft, then the next for sure.
And there are many Safeties this year with tremendous size, and a few are faster than Chancellor ever was. Neal would be a fine player here, but if his cost is too rich for their blood, there are several guys with outrageous size and some speed who could eventually replace Chancellor at SS with a couple years of teaching and time to acclimate. Guys like Killebrew, Jayron Kearse, Jeremy Cash, Tevin Carter, and Green.
I know they’ll pick a SS of the future in this draft, just not sure how early. My preference is Neal, even at the cost of #26 (and a top OL/DL prospect). I think he’s the natural evolution of the SS as teams have found the weakness in our Cover-3 (behind Chancellor, in the seam). He has more speed without losing the thump and we need to seal that up because explosive plays killed us last year. McCray’s contract is up next year, Chancellor’s will either be re-done or he will be cut next year. SS is not a luxury, it’s a need.
This simulated mock is inspired by JT’s post on DTs.
26: R1P26
DT VERNON BUTLER
LOUISIANA TECH
56: R2P25
RB DERRICK HENRY
ALABAMA
90: R3P27
G/C CONNOR MCGOVERN
MISSOURI
97: R3P34
OT/G SHON COLEMAN
AUBURN
124: R4P26
DE/OLB STEPHEN WEATHERLY
VANDERBILT
171: R5P32
OT HALAPOULIVAATI VAITAI
TCU
215: R6P40
RB/WR D.J. FOSTER
ARIZONA STATE
225: R7P4
DT/OL JOEL HEATH
DENVER BRONCOS
247: R7P26
S MICHAEL CAPUTO
WISCONSIN
I think it’s pretty interesting the Seahawks took Butler out for dinner the night before his pro day. His pro day numbers are even more interesting. 6-4 321 lbs running a 5.05 40, 33.5 vert, and 9.3 broad jump. Said he felt tight at the combine and wanted to improve those numbers. He did. Looks like a worker to me. As raw as he is as a rusher, he did pick up that nice sack in the senior bowl. Maybe the Wilkerson comparisons are closer to legit than not, at least in terms of build and athlete.
I think Derrick Henry might last to 56. The value of RB is league low, Henry does awesome things in the open field, but can be caught in the backfield and easily stopped if blocking breaks down. At 56, he’s a very attractive complement to Rawls with Rawls staying the starter.
Round 3 they go OL with McGovern selected to perhaps upgrade Center. Shon Coleman sliding to the end of the round due to health concerns and lack of workout. Coleman either competes at tackle or guard. Personally, I really like him a lot at guard.
Weatherly adds more athletic speed to the edge rush to the DE/SAM pool.
Vaitai brings the TEF after his recent pro day, and competes at RT.
DJ Foster fills the offensive weapon role they were looking for in Ervin. Heath is the next DL/OL convert. Caputo adds depth at safety.
Butler, Henry, McGovern, Foster have all met with the Seahawks.
Mcgovern is definitley gonna be a seahawk…dude looks exactly like a john moffitt/sokoli cross.weird…
Here is a link to a great article about one of my favorite small school guys in this draft Tyrone Holmes out of Montana. I think he is going to be a mi-round steal for some one. Lot of great analytics in the article as well on his testing #s etc.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2631199-montana-pass-rusher-tyrone-holmes-is-one-of-nfl-drafts-best-kept-secrets
Yes!
Would love someone around here to do some study on this guy, and see if he checks some boxes for the Hawks. I’m too big of a Griz fan to be objective. To me, he will surpass what Kroy Bierman has done with Atlanta. Not that Kroy was an All-Pro DE, but to get a guy to play solid ball and compete for a starting position for the life of his rookie contract, at the price of a 6th rounder? Yes please!
Holmes checks a lot of the Hawks’ boxes at DE. He’s a very good overall athete, as he tested at about 125 Sparq. 2 measurements stand out that may take him off the Hawks radar – 32″ arms, and a 9’5″ broad jump. Both these results are smaller than any measurements of Hawks’ UDFA/draft picks at DE. He does compare favorably to Cassius Marsh, although Marsh is the least athletic Hawks DE (drafted/UDFA) I’ve found:
Marsh – 6’4, 252 lbs, 33″ arms, 4.70 40, 1.70 split, 9’6″ broad, 32 vert, 7.08 3-cone, 4.25 shuttle, ~115 Sparq
Holmes – 6’2, 253 lbs, 32″ arms, 4.59 40, 1.65 split, 9’5″ broad, 37.5 vert, 7.0 3-cone, 4.30 shuttle, ~125 Sparq
I am not a Marsh fan. He looks like a Timmay! Ruskell pick; a try-hard ass buster with little upside. He’s just too slow to add much pass rush, though he’s a fine ST player. Holmes has a bit more speed, and a really nice Vert. Bummer that he scored so low on the Broad Jump….
Marsh tested as an explosive athlete during his combine.
32 inch vert, 9-6 broad, incredible 4.25 shuttle and 7.08 in the three cone.
The agility times are impressive, both around the 75th percentile in the mockdraftable database, while the explosive tests are below average. His lack of good speed/acceleration doesn’t help much either. Overall he tested like an average athlete with his approximate Sparq score of 116 putting him around the 40th percentile of edge players.
He’s the only Hawks edge rusher (including PCJS draft picks, UDFAs, Bennett & Avril) I’ve found with a Sparq score below 122.
Holmes is just behind Marsh’s shuttle and actually faster in the three-cone, plus he’s a solid tenth of a second faster in the 40. That tenth of a second matters–its what prevents Marsh from turning the corner against Tackles, he just cant get there fast enough. If he gets any sacks, it will be on extended plays and due to his relentless motor–coverage sacks–because he doesnt display the quickness/speed to turn the corner.
Holmes may not be a lot better than Marsh, but he’s got a bit more speed and is just as agile, maybe moreso. He’s got more potential, IMO.
How do you feel about Marsh as a SAM? Seems like he compares favorably with a guy like KJ Wright from a pure numbers standpoint.
Marsh’s 40, vert, and broad were all better than Michael Bennett’s, FWIW. I agree that he isn’t going to be a great pure edge rusher, but I think he’s flashed enough to maybe get more reps next year. Too early to give up on him, he could still be a productive player.
Holmes is much more of a pass-rush threat at the NFL level than Bierman. Bierman only had one really good year for Atlanta.
I’d really like to see Seattle bring Holmes in, whether its a late-round pick or UDFA. Other teams are starting to check out UM and MSU though, they arent a secret anymore.
I went to a small college in MT and sort of followed UM football (couple buddies from Missoula). So I always pull for Griz players, and this dude looks like he could be a solid contributor down the line. Saw a clip on twitter of him taking Wentz down with one hand which was pretty impressive.
College of Mines?
I think Holmes could be a fine player in the NFL by year 2. I hope he gets the chance.
Carroll College. We actually had a decent NAIA football program, but not many NFL prospects. My freshman year (2010) there was a TE who was a camp invite for the Texans IIRC.
Carrol won the Championship a couple times recently, but has taken a hit the last couple years. They are almost always really good…
Love Central Montana, lived outside Helena for four years…
School loans for Carrol must be a mother…
Seems like a solid approach to the draft could be dictated by what happens with Rankins. If he somehow falls then you grab him. The team clearly likes McGovern so a 1,2 or Rankins, McGovern could be their dream scenario.
Assuming Rankins is gone, then you target one of the guys found in this article (which was great BTW) Of the two, I think the best fit for the Hawks would be Spriggs. Putting Spriggs at LT allows you to leave Gilliam at RT. It also allows you to avoid the disaster that would be starting Webb at RT.
In the scenario where the team goes somewhere other than OL in R1, I see why McGovern is so interesting to the Hawks. In this scenario, the team would move Gilliam to LT and put McGovern at RT. This also allows you to move Webb to LG.
Drafting Ifedi in R1 would mean that the team is comfortable with Gilliam moving to LT (possible) and Webb taking on RT (eek). Locking down the tackle spots with Gilliam and a rookie gets 3/5 of a solid starting OL. That leaves C and RG to be figured out in camp battles.
I think we will add one WR this draft in either rounds 5,6or 7. Would love to hear some players you guys like.
My personal favorite WR for the Hawks are
#1 Peaks (Clemson)- Another potential WR star from Clemson. Big, fast, good hands and route runner. Will likely be gone before the 4th round but if not would love to see him on our roster to proved a different type of WR with more size.
#2 Louis (Auburn)-Incredibly under rated because of poor QB play at Auburn. He accounted for almost 40% of Auburns passing offense. He is 6-2 and has 4.45 speed with good hands. He should be there in the 5thor 6th round and would be an ideal pick.
#3 Cajuste (Stanford)- Rob has discussed this guy already and he makes a ton of sense in the 4th or 5th round.
#4 Caroo (Rutgers)-Reminds me a lot of Golden Tate. Tough and great hands with only 3 drops his entire college career. He is very productive and seems like a Hawks WR but I think he will gone on day #2
Any of these guys would be a great addition to our WR room with the potential to be real contributors.
Huge fan of Peaks. Dude loves to run through people after the catch! Plus the idea of drafting the next star WR from Clemson sounds fun. Only thing I’m worried about is his attitude. Can’t tell if he is just shy, intense, or bored. Hopefully he lasts till the 4th
If we’re talking about a WR in the later rounds, I actually think the Seahawks might pick Jay Lee. From your list, I like Carroo the most, but yes, I’m sure he’ll be gone by late round 3 or early round 4. My list had Jordan Payton or Tajae Sharpe or Keyarris Garrett in the later rounds as a Seahawk pick if they were still available. But the more buzz I heard about Jay Lee in connection to Seahawks, the more inclined I was to think that we might really pick him if not a priority UDFA. But if it was me, I would still push for my favorite Daniel Braverman.
I forgot about Jordan Payton. Yes I agree he would fit in nicely too.
Payton looks, walks, talks, and feels like a Seahawks “pedestrian”. Faster than he looks, no buzz, no fuss. I’m convinced he’ll be a Seahawk. I’m not an expert, but for the record, the last two times I felt this confident about a player being a Seahawk? Kevin Norwood (2014) and Bruce Irvin (2012)
All those guys sound good. Its a poor class for WR’s, though, so a lot of guys will go higher than they might usually.
Really like the intangibles of Keyarris Garrett, and the blue-collar Cajuste. Dom Williams might be that high-upside UDFA WR they seem to prefer, ala Smith and Williams. He does need to work on his hands/concentration, so maybe he doesn’t fit the profile of a guy who maxes out every target
My early wish list for 2017…Gabe Marks. You will not find a grittier gamer in the entire country, traits our WR core thrive on.
2017?
COREY DAVIS OR BUST
Garrett has a legit chip on his shoulder as well, he’s pissed he’s not in consideration as one of the top WR’s in the country, despite his ridiculous size/speed/production. He seems like a really good kid, one who will work his tail off to be the best; a less angry but just as determined Doug Baldwin.
I think NFL teams will like him a lot more than the Mock Draft “Experts” and he goes far higher than many think. I guess we’ll see…
I like Garrett o.k. but he doesn’t really create seperation so much as win contested balls. Shows his hands at the very last second. Really intriguing skill set.
Don’t forget Boehringer. Yeah, he’ll be raw and have a learning curve, but what an athlete. Huge catch radius. Seems to have good hands. Doesn’t fall down on first contact. Could be a bust, but has a ridiculously high ceiling.
For the low cost, you could make a case for him. If you believe in his mental composure.
Not a great track record for German nfl’ers.
Nowitzki’s NBA career is about over – we could line him up opposite Jimmy in the Redzone.
Yup, I think that’s exactly it. Does he have the mental toughness to overcome the growing pains (which I think are near certain)? Is football IMPORTANT to him. If the answer to those are “yes” I’d absolutely burn a 4th on the potential, if he’s still there.
I like those guys as well Trev.
Jordan Payton, Jay Lee, Malcom Mitchell, one of the Cal receivers.
BYU’s flex TE/WR Terenn Houk and Udub’s Jaydon Mickens.
This line stood out to me: “He’ll also leave wide open rush lanes”. Sounds like the prototypical Hawks o-lineman! Plug him in for Sweezy day 1. Great article. Couldn’t help making the joke….
Thank God we have Glowinsky, so we wont have to suffer through another Sweezy at RG at least. Now LG, thats another matter…
All I can say after reading your analysis, Kenny S–as far as Ifedi and Spriggs goes–is GROSS! I dont want either dude on my team, certainly not in the first or second round. Yuck!
One guy isnt strong enough to play G, is susceptible to the inside move when facing real DE pass rushers, and is obviously not confident in his ability to block their outside speed rush, and lunges when beaten…The other guy lacks the fire necessary to succeed at G, is slow-footed, and has horrible technique (doesnt “punch”, but rather pushes).
I get that Ifedi is a physical monster, but does he have the drive and the urge to learn better technique, and the fortitude to handle mean-ass DT’s at G? Doesnt sound like Spriggs will ever be anything but a cross between Giacomini and Britt. UGH!
I hope either youre dead wrong, or we dont take either one of these guys. And Im all for spending one of our first two picks on O-line, and bringing in at least two OL by the fifth round.
Unfortunately if a tackle is available in the 20’s, they are going to have problems. That’s why the top tackle prospects don’t last past the top 10.
And even those guys dont always work out nowaday. Look at Joekel, Lewan, Robinson, Lane Johnson, etc…the list goes on and on for guys drafted high to play LT who just arent able to do it at a high level in the NFL for years and years..or maybe never.
Doesnt do you much good to blow a pick on a guy who isnt gonna be great at LT. May as well do like Seattle and get raw guys with explosion and train them up…I guess.
I thought Gilliam was our LT, and they were possibly drafting for a RT. Not sure that makes much of a difference in today’s NFL, but I would be all for either one of these guys. High upside with both.
I suppose thats a more pessimistic view than what i meant to express.
I’m actually very high on both in the late first. Both have immense upside. This was supposed to be a comparison of their traits and weaknesses. I guess it does have a very critical viewpoint. Thanks for the feedback.
I like these players very much hahaha
Well thats good to hear. Reading it, Spriggs kinda sounded like a cross between Sweezy and Britt–Eeeew! And I watched a little bit of tape on Ifedi, and I saw the same thing–slow feet, and no punch; too much reaching out to push guys. He doesnt know how to block for squat, and he doesnt seem to want to DESTROY people the way you’d want.
Yes, Kenny, I know you didn’t mean the piece to be negative, but the flaws in both their games are issues—in regards to whether they deserve rd. 1.
Are we looking for an immediate starter with that high pick? Is either of these guys ready?
I would say without a doubt that we are looking at a low-end year 1 starter AT BEST with anyone we draft for the OL. The more likely case is that we are looking at a future starter with potential to be great after a few years of Cable’s coaching. That means another year of Britt and probably Webb starting. Even the top-OL, possibly #1 overall guy is flawed – Tunsil is FAR from perfect.
We have actually gotten decent comparative value with our previous early round OL picks. A solid starting LG is well worth the #25 pick (Carpenter)
While I wouldn’t express my sentiments in quite the same way, I tend to agree. After reading the piece (very well done) it seems that the value just isn’t there.
Plus, Seattle signed two tackles in FA (yuck, I know) but with Webb at RT and Gilliam at LT, it seems they are willing to live with those starters.
Plus, as has been pointed out repeatedly on this blog, tackles are far less important on this offense than traditional ones. What matters is improving the interior of the line.
Plus, we know that good interior linemen can be had later in the draft. You don’t need to take McGovern/Dahl et. al. in the first round.
That means that Seattle can trade down or use the selection on the defense (no other position on offense warrants a first round pick).
On defense, Rankins would be ideal. If he falls, that should be it, period.
Outside of Rankins, it seems that there are no other DT/DE options that are ideal. Bullard seems more like a R2 kind of guy, at least to me.
The only other position that offers potential value is the secondary. Based on this scenario, Neal might be worth it (as HI Hawk argues above, even if he doesn’t start in 2016). For me, the value is at CB. A recent mock had Eli Apple falling to the Seahawks, and he seems like a good fit for Seattle. My personal favorite is William Jackson, and he is more likely to be available.
I know, I know, Seattle will never draft a CB in the first round. But the more we look at different scenarios (especially after the detailed look at Spriggs and Ifedi above) it’s just too hard to escape the logic of it.
Putting a potential star opposite Sherman just makes too much sense. This provides Seattle with 3 starting CBs (only two on the roster right now – at least in terms of what we have seen).
Finally, Seattle is known to do what nobody expects. Drafting a CB in the first round would qualify.
The thing with Apple is he has shortish arms, and Seattle has never drafted a corner with arms as short as him, let alone so high. I too like Jackson, and think Seattle may be interested. I also think Neal is worth them checking out. You made some very good points.
A trade down is possible, and if so I bet they still go D with their first pick–likely better value. Dahl could go in the second or third, so it wouldnt hurt my feelings if they pick him in the second round.
Seattle has done a good job disguising who they like most with their first pick, or even what position–as they usually do. They also did a good job plugging holes in FA so they can have a bit of flexibility to go BPA high in the draft–or at least give that appearance to muddy the waters. When they really really want a guy, sometimes they play games–like when they told Wilson they were going in a different direction, then drafted him.
At Pick # 26 — NO Tier 1 OT’s, NO Tier 1 DT’s, but very probably, SOME Tier 1 CB’s.
Five years of a reliable, competent CB.
We know they won’t take a corner in R1.
Look at what they’ve done there over the years.
That’s the logic of it.
Im hopeful we can get a decent linemen in the second, and pick up Dahl or Haeg in the third/fourth round. Just find a couple linemen who can actually play, unlike Britt…
I know this is a completely different different topic, but did you guys see what Terron Beckham (OBJ’s cousin) did at his pro day? He worked out as a RB and Seahawks scouts were there. Look at these numbers…
Size: 5’11/223lbs
Vert: 44.5″ (bested everyone at Combine by 2″”
40 time: 4.47
Bench: 36 reps
Broad: 11 ft
3-Cone: 6.89 secs
It is worth mentioning he hasn’t played football since HS (became a personal trainer), but could he be a middle/late rd guy to look at?
Also, D’Brick Ferguson announced he is retiring from the Jets. I know the Jets were looking for OL early as well, I’m guessing this will mean they are definitely taking a OT in the 1st ahead of us
Jets almost certainly going OT.
Could easily be Ifedi. Some teams will think he can play LT.
That is what I was thinking about Ifedi as well. Things will get interesting! I wonder if the Kaepernick-to-DEN murmurs will cause Clady to be traded/released and how that’ll effect the 1st rd.
20 days till Draft Day!!!
Terron Beckham is also juiced to the gills. No way he doesn’t pop for something eventually.
Source?
“It is worth mentioning he hasn’t played football since HS (became a personal trainer), but could he be a middle/late rd guy to look at? ”
Wouldn’t draft him IMO – he’d be a UDFA project practice squad pickup at best.
An athlete like that is worth a sixth or seventh, to cut out the UDFA bidding war. IF a team really trusts his attitude and work ethic. Its a long hard road from HS Football to NFL Football. The difference in speed is monumental–far harder than HS to NBA.
STTBM,
I agree completely. I don’t think he’ll make it to UDFA. His name and numbers will have at least a few teams interested in him.
Roids wont make you fast. His speed is amazing, especially considering his size. Then again, being a Trainer is far from being an NFL RB. He’s a risk, but an interesting project I think someone will take a flyer on.
It is completely irresponsible of me to think it, but the idea of a Noah Spence luxury pick excites me. There is too much important other business at the top, but—-best speed rusher in this draft+ x-factor. Avril-Bennett-Clemons-Clark-Spence. I will think this in the back of my mind until Spence is off the board.
You can never have too many pass rushers, and Avril and Bennett are getting on in years. Add to that the fact that most D-linemen take a couple years to get going in the NFL and you certainly can make a case that Seattle could–and perhaps should–take the BPA in round one, especially if there is a pass rusher they like. Spence could be that guy.
They only took Clark a year ago and it’s not like Avril and Bennett are pushing 35.
Why is the T-Rex armed Spence an x-factor? Is the x-factor the uncertainty on when he’ll miss games due to disciplinary reasons?
He doesn’t have long enough arms to even be considered, and that’s before they get into how much he “loves the game” vs. “loves what the game can do for HIM”.
He got booted from his school, but since then has cleaned up and done well. Took him awhile to get his head out, but by all accounts Ive read he’s managed to turn the corner.
Great write-up. Appreciate the effort.
I’m starting to personally lean towards 1st rd) impact defender and then in subsequent rounds pound the interior of the oline with tough guys.
I think the talent discrepancy between defensive guys that I really like (Billings,Butler,Bullard,Neal,Lee, Spence, Nkemdiche, A’Shawn) and the olinemen that could still be floating around at 26 (Ifedi,Spriggs,Kelly,Whitehair, Decker) is significant.
There’s a real chance to get an impact player at 26, especially on the defensive side of the ball where you could potentially strike gold with any of those aforementioned guys if you get em coached up. Whereas on the oline you could somewhat safely get a solid starter. Fortune favors the brave, and I do like the likes of Mcgovern, Martin, Dahl, Glasgow, Westerman, Odhiambo, Haeg,Thuney beyond round 1. From rounds 2-4 you could realistically get 2-3 strong interior lineman if you are so inclined.
Ifedi has his issues. All are correctable. I think they start at his feet.
As the old saying goes, ‘fix your feet and the hands will follow.’
But, they see something in him.
Why else would they have scheduled a private workout?
He’s actually rumored to be a VMAC visitor.
Kenny, this is a good piece. I hope readers don’t focus too much on the negative parts of their game. No rookie will be perfect and these guys have huge upside IMO. Personally, I want them to take one of these 2 (whichever they view the better tackle prospect) and McGovern. If that means rounds 1 and 2, so be it.
I agree. McGovern is a guy you can’t leave this draft without for me.
How about trading with buffalo in the first round to secure Ifedi as our first round pick? I would personally be very against it.