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Geno Smith — Seattle’s ‘MVG’
I wanted to wait until after the New Orleans game to post this.
After all — I’d witnessed the Saints come to London, devour Minnesota’s offensive line and turn Kirk Cousins into the check-down-Charlie he has a tendency to become.
This was a real test. Not the cakewalk we saw in Detroit or against the Falcons.
Geno Smith passed the test with flying colours.
I don’t need to post all the rankings and statistics that other people have researched — you’ve probably seen them all by now anyway. The ‘TLDR’ version is simply that he’s in the top-five in virtually every quarterback-relevant metric. He is currently PFF’s highest graded QB with an outstanding 90.2 grade.
Frankly, he’s been a revelation.
Yes there have been some slow moments. The first three games saw the offense grind to a halt after half-time. They failed to score a point against the admittedly excellent San Francisco defense.
Yet the performance in New Orleans, despite the upgrade in opponent, once again showed off what Smith has done so well to start 2022.
A lot of people are praising his ability to execute the offense (which he is doing very well). I think he’s gone beyond that. I don’t think he’s just ‘functioned’ his way to a 90.2 grade. I think he’s actually in attack mode.
He’s taking the fight to the defense. He’s throwing with confidence, poise and more than a hint of aggression. However, the accuracy and timing remains.
It’s been so impressive to see him throw to all levels of the field with so much skill. The touchdowns to Tyler Lockett on Sunday were textbook and brilliant — the kind of throws we’d all be amazed by if Justin Herbert was the one throwing the pass.
He’s taking the chance to challenge defenders 1v1, he’s throwing over the middle, he understands when to check down, he’s being creative with his legs. Geno Smith is playing like a X-factor talent.
He is making the most of his two key receiving weapons. The tight ends are a dynamic factor in Seattle for the first time in the Pete Carroll era. The Seahawks have the #1 offense per DVOA and it’s not an illusion or a red-herring.
It’s simply that Geno Smith is playing that well.
I’m happy to admit my concerns have so far been proven completely wrong. In fairness, I don’t think anyone expected this — short of those investing blind faith. But I was especially critical because I expected a player who would function against bad opponents then be shut-down by moderate-to-good opponents.
I thought he would be a turnover risk when pressured or when feeling the need to score and keep pace in explosive games.
None of that has been the case. He’s instead been attack-minded and dynamic without risking turnovers. Smith has elevated his play far beyond anything we saw in his previous stints as a starter, or any snaps he had in pre-season with the Seahawks.
He deserves tremendous praise — which he is getting from the fans and media — and he’s developing into something of a cult hero. A phenomena.
If it continues the Seahawks should start talking him up as ‘comeback player of the year’ during media conferences. Get a little momentum behind the campaign.
It’s actually a shame the defense is so horrendous that he isn’t getting the support his play deserves. Even if the unit were middling, they’d have a chance to win any game with the offensive output they’re producing.
It’s not only Smith who deserves credit though. The receivers and tight ends are stepping up too. The two rookie offensive tackles are providing great confidence for the future with the way they are starting their careers. Shane Waldron is creating the kind of production we all hoped a Sean McVay protégé would provide. Pete Carroll deserves credit because his faith in Smith has been unwavering and it has been repaid.
This season is about finding green shoots for the future and the offense is certainly delivering that. This is good news.
Admittedly there are still 12 regular season games remaining and things can change. If this continues though, it’s a big positive for the Seahawks.
So what does it mean for the future?
A lot of people are already talking about extending Smith’s contract or at least retaining him for next season. On his current trajectory, that would appear to be a no-brainer. There are some things people need to remember though.
Firstly, he will be a man in demand if he keeps this up. If Kirk Cousins can set records for guaranteed money as a free agent — don’t put it past someone making a humungous offer for Smith if he continues his fine play.
The Seahawks don’t have much cap space to play with in 2023. The media keep talking up their spending power because Russell Wilson’s dead money comes off the books. Most of it has been spent already. Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs, for example, will cost a combined $36m against the cap next season. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will cost $31m. Uchenna Nwosu and Shelby Harris account for nearly $26m currently. Will Dissly and Noah Fan will cost $17m.
As of today, Seattle is only projected to have $32m in effective cap space for 2023. They can create more but not much more — and will create holes that need filling on the roster if they start cutting veteran starters.
Making the situation worse is the fact they only have 33 players contracted for next year — the third fewest in the league.
The $32m in cap space will evaporate quickly as they fill out their roster.
They simply don’t have a lot to play with, unless they want to extend Smith on a long-term contract and produce a smaller cap hit for next year. That would be a risk given he turned 32 yesterday and might not benefit from the ‘surprise’ nature of his 2022 re-emergence in future seasons (or even later this season).
If he continues to play this way, he might even start asking for major money. The top quarterbacks are being paid $50m a year these days. He wouldn’t get near that — but Jimmy Garoppolo’s last contract paid him nearly $28m a year. That’s not unreasonable for a player performing like he is at the moment. The Seahawks couldn’t afford that unless, like Garoppolo, it was a five-year extension.
I think the Seahawks fully intended to have a quarterback in 2023 that was on a rookie contract. I think they spent accordingly this year because they anticipated not spending at quarterback. I think that was their plan.
Smith’s form has probably surprised them as much as it has us, regardless of what Carroll might say about believing in Geno. If they truly believed, he wouldn’t be on a proportionally tiny one-year contract which now looks great value for 2022 but a problem when the season ends.
It might force the Seahawks to run the risk of losing Smith if another team bites and snatches him away. Ideally they keep Smith and draft a quarterback and have the best of both worlds — but they could end up having to go the rookie route anyway.
It’ll be fascinating to see what his market ends up being.
I also hope the Seahawks show restraint and more or less stick to the plan. Smith is into his 30’s and not likely a long-term solution. It’d be great if he could be Seattle’s answer to Alex Smith in Kansas City. That way, they can be aggressive to find a long-term successor, redshirt them like the Chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes and possibly get a handsome trade return for Smith when it’s time to pass on the baton.
While the top priority might appear to be fixing the defense — as I’ve spent considerable time noting recently — the answers are unlikely to come in the first round of the 2023 draft. This is a class with a collection of four highly talented but different quarterbacks plus Will Anderson and Bijon Robinson who deserve a high-ish first round placing. After that it’s extremely hard to identify top-15 players, game-wreckers and playmakers on defense.
Getting a young quarterback in a good year for the position at the top of round one remains a very enticing proposition.
Fortunately I also think there are defensive diamonds to be uncovered on day two and three and I’ll write about some of them in an article due out this week.
As Smith continues to excel and be Seattle’s ‘MVG’ (rather than ‘MVP’) — setting up a Smith/Mahomes transition would be the best thing to do for the long-term future of the franchise. That might mean negotiating with Smith now, taking a slight gamble that he continues his great form while also getting a bit of a discount because you’re securing his future today and placing a bet on his continued success.
He might wish to bet on himself, of course. He also might appreciate a show of faith and some long-term security that probably felt a million miles away just a few months ago when he was simply fighting to win a starting job.
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In retrospect, I think giving Smith a one-year deal this year was a huge mistake.
Obviously given his current performance it sets you up to have to win a bidding war should you want to retain his services. But even if he didn’t play this well? You’d still be in a position to be drafting your QB of the future without a backup on the roster.
Pete and John love giving out one and two year deals. It’s part of the reason they only have 33 players under contract for 2023 while also only having $32 million in available cap space. For a few years now I’ve thought this is an underrated mistake that they consistently make. When you fill holes with one and two year deals, you have to fill those holes again in the near future even as more holes appear.
A bunch of us (me included) were peeved that we gave Geno so much money this year to begin with. I, along with many others, said “why the hell did we give Geno anything more than a vet minimum contract when he was coming off of an offseason DUI and middling qb play in 2021” I was totally wrong in my assessment of Geno, but the idea that the fo goofed bc they didn’t sign him for more than one year is ludicrous as they were already getting a lot of shit for giving him so much guaranteed money to begin with.
I thought it was a fair contract compared with some of the backup QBs in the NFL. No one really projected him to be the run-away QB this season.
That being said, you couldn’t have given Geno a 2 year or more contract based on his play last season. In retrospect, it looks dumb but at the time it was smart process.
Typing out my last Geno stat watch it actually made almost furious that Pete has bombed the defense so badly.
This team would be 4-1 currently with any defense above the 20th ranking.
Thanks for this article Rob.
I know there’s more games to be played but Geno feels all the world to me like King Felix right now. Doing everything in his power to get wins being held back by a whole side of the ball.
It’s embarrassing. And it’s maddening that if John is allegedly in charge how on earth do you trade Wilson and leave yourself so little money to get after it?
Even if they had hoped to play a rookie next year they are still looking at filling out free agency with bargain deals when this team needs impact on defense and a pretty huge upgrade in the middle of the oline.
I still don’t think John played was the person pushing in the trade or extension of Adams.
Unsure on the Diggs extension, but wow has his play dropped off. Like Rob has said we’ve spent too many resources at Safety & LB.
It continues to haunt us with Adams & Diggs.
Are the Seahawks serious bringing back Bruce Irvin ?
That’s the defensive issues solved
Maybe we should resign KJ while we’re at it!
I dunno Rob, he’s no Benson Mayowa
Looks like it, to the practice squad for now:
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/10/11/report-seahawks-will-sign-bruce-irvin-to-their-practice-squad/
I doubt he’s got much left in the tank but I’m sure SEA hopes he can take on the mentor role with Taylor, Mafe, etc. (like Peterson did last year with Penny). If he can help Taylor be more prepared, professional, etc. then I’m all for it.
Damn it we didn’t learn anything. And we need KJ Wright more than we need Irvin.
Stand by for Luke Willson’s return if a TE gets hurt
Yup and also stand by for Joey Hunt to replace Blythe if he gets hurt. Unbelievable.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/seahawks-sign-familiar-face-to-practice-squad-designate-lj-collier-for-return/ar-AA12DIVV
Bruce Irvin over Joe Schobert? Man I don’t get it.
Good article Rob. Geno has surpassed all of my expectations and he has been a joy to watch. Those TD passes to Tyler on Sunday were textbook throws.
So what are our Geno options?
1) Wait and see how the season pans out and then make an offer?
2) Offer him an extension now for 3-4 years at a competitive salary in the range of 25/30M/yr with big signing bonus?
3) Pass on Geno next year if he costs over 20M/yr and go to plan B, Drew Lock?
All three assume we get a QBOTF next year somewhere in the draft, be it Levis, Stroud, TDR, etc)
Here’s another option. Put Geno Smith on a long term contract. Draft Levis anyway, and trade him later for future draft picks.
Another great one Rob-truly a top drawer read that provides a ton of food for thought!
Thank you 👍🏻
How much might the inevitable suspension cost him when the DUI thing drops, supposedly this month? If that BAL is anywhere north of 0.16- similar to what Ruggs’ was just 2 months before- he could be kryptonite for a while. Ironically, if it had happened over the summer when he was relatively anonymous then it might have been ignored by national media. But if he continues to play really, really well, and if the national media really starts to put him up on a pedestal, and THEN the DUI comes out, well, they love knocking em down just as fast as they put em up.
As an aside, I didn’t know that Ruggs is living at home and is not in jail. That’s wild to me.
I am totally eating crow on geno. He’s confident in the offense, has protected the ball for the most part, and has thrown some pretty sweet passes this year. I think he gets jittery with time in the pocket, but he’s made watching the offense fun. If he tanks the rest of the season, he has already exceeded my expectations… which might say more about what I originally thought of him.
As Rob has said, he’s not the long term solution but this should be a good problem to have. Sometimes I think more options for PCJS is not necessarily a positive though.
Right there with you. I thought sure Geno would lead the Seahawks to the bottom of the league with his sub-par play and set the them up for a top rookie QB.
They still might get there, thanks to the terrible defense, but I was completely wrong. It’s not just the numbers — he looks great. Most of his incompletions were still good throws, or throw-aways. He is making good decisions and his accuracy is remarkable. Going back to Jim Zorn, I don’t recall a Seattle QB so consistently good through the first five games of a season.
Every time I think Pete Carroll is clueless, the game passed him by, etc., something like this happens. I thought he was a moron for not trying to upgrade the qb position in the offseason. I wasn’t on board with Baker or whoever, but I thought it was a mistake not going for a late round flyer on a Skylar Thompson/Jack Coan-type. But Pete obviously saw something in Geno that very few others saw, kudos to him. Now if he could just find a couple of Genos that we could plug in at LB and on the Dline, we’d be getting somewhere.
So I keep hearing that Geno isn’t the long-term answer. It started me thinking…
What is a long-term answer for the Seahawks right now with this owner and FO?
We keep bringing up that Geno is 33 now? Some of the best QBs in the league are just hitting their stride at this point while others have flamed out already. Geno has been basically on the shelf for the past 5 years. Who’s to say that the best of his game isn’t in front of him?
Could Geno be a viable “long-term” QB for this franchise for the next 3-5 years until the team is sold?
Just pondering…
The franchise doesn’t have to avoid finding a 10+ year starting QB simply because a sale is forthcoming
Pardon me for going off subject here but I’m just incredibly bummed out:
Until the Seattle Mariners learn to not be the cheating asstros’ bitch, they’ll never see a World Series. Blowing a 7-3 lead is going to be psychologically destructive to any chance they had to FINALLY get the cheatros monkey off their back and get to the ALCS.
That was tough to watch, terrible choice to throw Ray in there to try and finish them off, yeah I get lefty vs lefty but come on. Also why did he throw the best pure hitter in the MLB a meatball right down the middle, make him chase
I thought they were comfortable with Swanson vs. lefties so where was he?
Well the Mariners just did something similar to Toronto a few days ago. They will be OK. They may lose, but have made huge strides. Any psychological pain will turn to determination by next spring.
Hope you’re correct. I’ll say it again, until they quit getting beaten like a rug by the cheaters, it’s not going to matter since they’re a division foe.
How is the team’s cap looking for 2024? If I remember correctly, there’s still some dead money from Russ in 2023 that will be gone by then and that is also the first year we can escape some of the more horrendous contracts on the roster (Adams, Jackson, Diggs).
You succeed at QB by hitting on a draft pick or by paying a really good QB a lot of money. If Geno is really good then paying him a lot of money is fine. Especially if we’re talking Jimmy G money. It would be nice to draft somebody who will be a franchise quarterback for the next twenty years but in the NFL you’re doing pretty well if you can lock up four or five worry free years at QB.
Of course if Geno Smith is in the process of reprising Jon Kitna’s performance from 1999 then extending him would be a huge mistake. I’m glad I’m not the one who has to make the call.
Hey Rob, maybe we trade Geno before the deadline if he continues to play like this. If there is a contender or team who needs one (Miami if Tua concussions keep him out). To your point we do not have the means to afford him at this current rate, we can probably get a first making it 3 first rounders , plus we will be a worse team ensuring we get a high pick . These picks valuable to fixing the terrible defense and a future QB.
I appreciate this article Rob. It’s well earned and timely. Kinda hard to think our best player is Geno Smith, and by a wide margin.
If he finishes the season even close to where he’s performing now, he’ll cost too much for Seattle to keep short term. They’d need to commit to at least 4 or 5 years to manage the cap hit near term.
If Richardson is their guy, I could see them thinking he needs 2 years in a pro system anyway and maybe then the investment in Smith makes sense.
Geno’s inspiring play has exceeded my expectations and I truly believe no one thought he would be this good. The money we handed out in this off-season to Will Dissly, Quinton Jefferson, Al Woods, Bryan Mone and a few other contracts had all of us scratching our heads then. I fully believe even with DK‘s extension, the mindset was a rookie next year would only be a few million dollars. Geno potentially commanding anything over $20 million is a no go for us. There do appear to be some quarterbacks that will be free agents in 2023 and I don’t know if re-signing Lock or grabbing a guy like Brissett, Minshew or Heinicke AND drafting a rookie would be the best move. I don’t know if there will be many quarterbacks that would be willing to come here on a short low money deal that would potentially have them starting a year or being relegated to a back up. At this point, if Geno keeps it up, hopefully were looking at a comp pick for him.
If we want PCJS to stick with a long term plan one option to consider would be trading him this season to a playoff team with an injured qb for a highish draft pick and just going with Lock for the rest of the year.
The likelihood of this happening is ZERO %… The trade deadline is week 8, so that would be us packing it up and calling the season dead in less than 3 weeks.
The Seahawks have cap flexibility to sign or retain anyone they choose. It is just that in the past they have been reluctant to manipulate the cap like most other teams do.
As for Geno Smith… sure he could be the next Kitna, but what if he is the next Kurt Warner? He is showing he has all the tools. He seems to fit well in the system. The OL is functioning at a high level and should only improve with experience. If Geno and the offense keep playing like this it will make their decision hard.
As for the D… it has to be the coaching. When multiple historically good (Poona, Diggs, Brooks ect…) players are all playing poorly and seemingly not knowing their assignments. That’s on the coaches.
They haven’t been ‘relunctant’
They refuse to play the cap game and wear that refusal as a badge of honour
Anyone thinking they are going to chance tact now is barking up the wrong tree
And as for… ‘could be the next Warner’. Sure. Geno could repeat the career of a man in the HOF who has had a film made about his life. That feels realistic.
I was only stating they “could” sign anyone they wish cap wise.
Look, I wanted anyone but Geno! I didn’t think Mayfield would have been a bad option. I was pissed when Lock didn’t get equal reps…. We all expected the defense to be far superior to the offense. But it’s the reverse. We were ALL WRONG (so far).
All I am saying is if he is this consistent for the season, do you jettison him for an unproven rookie that could either be Payton Manning or Ryan Leaf? I don’t know… I could go either way.
It’s not a case of ‘jettisoning’ him
It’s simply a fact that the Seahawks have steadfastly refused to do what you are suggesting regarding the cap and it’s plausible he will generate a big offer elsewhere, perhaps too big, if his form continues
The Seahawks won’t do what the Rams have been doing. If they weren’t going to do it when they thought they were bang in the middle of contending window, they won’t do it now
It is worse unfortunately.
They played the cap push game with….wait for it…Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs.
They structured both of their extensions to have minimal hit in the early years and grow dramatically a year or two down the line. They actually reduced Adams’ cap hit from his $8m first round 5th year option to $5m as part of his extension.
That’s how we got to having a $36m hit on safeties in 2023.
So it’s decision-making plus cap management that have been problems.
As someone who had faith in geno, more so because i lost faith in Wilson, last season I’m shocked at what I’ve seen. I see a lot of comments on other sites saying he’s doing great for Smith and yea but the defense he’s playing is making him look good. But the film doesn’t lie and his play has been elite all year and not just for Smith. The passes he was making in the Lions game were great passes for Peyton Manning standards. The touchdown pass to Tyler was as perfect of a pass you’ll ever see in the NFL. You seen some of this last year, very limited amount, but he always crumbled and choked. He’s been an absolute warrior this year and put the NFL on notice, not just the NFL but the seahawks too.
To me the best might be to extend Geno until PC’s contract runs out. Move other contracts to free up dead money in the next couple of years. Move in the draft so you can build a good, young supporting cast (iOL, WR3, RB2, defense). Once PC’s contract is done, bring in a HC who’s good on offense and can work well with young QBs and start the QB lottery.
If Geno plays well until that it’s good. With a better team, we might compete to some extent. If Geno is just a mirage then great, we’ll have better picks.
I don’t wanna see this FO ruining a young, talented QB.
And as for the draft…if this would be the plan, I wouldn’t hate either moving up for Anderson OR moving down to 17-23 with both pick maybe with multiple trade downs if possible and pick as many guys in the top100 as we can
Thanks for suggesting this Dani.
Like most on here I don’t think Geno is “the future” of this team. But with his play he might be the “future” for Pete Carroll. I have a hard time getting past Carrols age/Contract. I know Rob and others dismiss this but his age combined with the team potentially being sold causes me to think this is it for Pete. Does Pete want to spend the next 2-3 years drafting and developing a rookie QB that will be playing after he is letgo/retires? Is he overly concerned about the Seahawks franchise after he leaves?
I think he will pound the table to resign Geno. They might draft a QB if it works out that way.
To be clear, for the franchise this (not taking advantage of this year’s QB draft) is the wrong direction. Of course, if Geno does become a good starting QB he could be so for the next 5-10 years.
I digress… Im concerned Pete, understandably so, is mainly thinking about Pete.. I KNOW they (the Seahawks) need to draft a young QB even if it’s just to give hope for the future. I understand the perfectly reasonable counter argument to what I’m saying.
But Pete may be looking to attach himself to Geno for the next several years and then retire . If that is what Pete is think he may push to use all those draft picks to build a better team around Geno.
This is the exactly what I think will happen. Pete will not care about the long term future and will keep Geno to finish out his time in Seattle. JS might push for a longer term vision, but his position isn’t guaranteed after Pete retires. So he will likely try to capitalize on the next few years, building his resume for the future. I just pray that they don’t make another stupid trade in an attempt to gain a short term fix for the defense.
Regardless of what Pete has said, there is no way that they expected THIS version of Geno. If they did, then they would have locked him in with a multi year deal. They were competing with no one for his signature at the time. Obviously looking like a different story next off season.
The combination of resigning Geno and drafting Anthony Richardson is seeming like the most realistic option for a long term answer at QB. With so many bad and QB needy teams it is hard to imagine the Hawks being able to even trade up into one of the top two spots to draft Stroud or Levis.
Of course that could be fantasyland if Geno expects a monster deal and Richardson doesn’t declare.
Excellent read as always Rob. I do hope “outsiders” (of this blog) read this and realize you are square when you’re wrong. Geno has exceeded my wildest dreams. Been fantastic so far.
Thanks Mike
For some reason, I’ve always liked Geno, but he’s still playing beyond my hopes of a mid-tier qb so far. Eye-test wise, I liked what I saw when he was a Jet in terms of development/potential (I’m sure the numbers don’t back me) and thought he got a raw deal there. He also got a bit of a raw deal when Wilson came back from injury early and before he could even throw the ball and sent Geno back to the bench, coaching is also at fault there. Happy for him.
DK knew something when he was pointing at Geno last year
Geno Smith’s season reminds me of Case Keenum’s in 2017, when he put up numbers that were quite strong (QBR=73.3), and surprising given his performance in prior years. He ended up making about $18 million in 2018, which would be in the $20-$25 million adjusting for cap inflation.
I think inflation at QB has gone up more than $18m to $20m
I think Jimmy G’s $28m will be the number he’d focus on
Looking at over the cap, there is plenty of salary cap moves to find the money to pay Gino if the Seahawks want to. Gabe jackson 6.5 million, Diggs 9.9 million, Harris 9 million, and Nwosu 8 million. Thats over 30 million right there. Too bad Adams contract doesn’t save money till 2024. Guard and safety are easy to replace in the draft. Finding a pass rush is the big challenge but Harris/Nwosu is not the answer.
All of those players need to be replaced though
You’d be left with about 29 contracted players for 2023!
They replaced Duane Brown and Shell’s contracts with rookie deals. Cant see why they cant do it on the defensive side of things if they can hit on the draft picks. I’m all for drafting a rookie QB if we are in range and splashing on a expensive free agent pass rusher. There are examples like Rich Gannon and others that had great runs in their 30’s after sucking early in their careers. Gino might be for real. Nice to have a back up plan if we cant in range for a top QB.
I don’t think you realise the number of draft picks you’ll need to ‘replace’ players like that with rookies. Because it’s not just the collection you listed. It’s people like Poona Ford, Austin Blythe, Rashaad Penny, Jason Myers, Phil Haynes, Drew Lock, Cody Barton and a whole bunch more.
There would be 29 contracted players based on this proposal
It might sound appealing to hack the roster the bits to keep Geno Smith but it’s not realistic at the price you’re talking because they need an actual football team roster
Either they’ll need to let him test the market and it be cold, they need to sign him to a long-term deal with a low cap hit in year one (but will be harder to get out of potentially as he reaches his mid-30’s) — or they just go with a rookie QB
I think they spent this year because they planned to have a rookie next year and didn’t anticipate what we’re seeing from Geno Smith. And nobody anticipated it, otherwise he wouldn’t be playing on a minimal contract for one year having sat in free agency for a month after the league year opened.
The question now is how do they pivot and adjust, if indeed they do