Stanford S Justin Reid has 5 visits scheduled for April:#Eagles #Lions#Steelers#Panthers#Seahawks pic.twitter.com/Bzau8YX2Ol
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) March 18, 2018
This is interesting for quite a few reasons.
Reid is going to go in the first two rounds of the draft. It’ll be a surprise if he makes it out of the top-40.
His brother Eric (still available as a free agent) was the #18 overall pick in 2013. Justin performed better in the speed/agility tests at the combine (4.40 forty, 4.15 short shuttle, 6.65 three cone compared to Eric’s 4.53, 4.22 and 6.99). Eric was slightly more explosive (40.5 inch vertical, 11-0 broad compared to Justin’s 38.5 and 10-8).
Justin didn’t get enough attention for his performance in Indianapolis. At 6-0 and 207lbs, these are really good numbers. If you’re looking for a modern day safety capable of playing up in the slot, lining up deep in single-high or playing at the LOS — this kind of physical profile tells you Reid has the potential to do it all.
Having watched three of his games there are areas he can improve. His tackling isn’t textbook and there are question marks about his ability to play deep in space.
For the Seahawks to even think about drafting him early — you know what that means for Earl Thomas. And with 4.40 speed they might be thinking Reid can develop into a free safety.
A visit doesn’t mean the Seahawks are automatically going to target Reid in the draft. It has occasionally been a telltale sign, however. Last year they met with both Malik McDowell and Shaquille Griffin. In 2016 they invited Zac Brooks and Christian French to the VMAC (both ended up with Seattle) and held private workouts with Germain Ifedi, Rees Odhiambo and George Fant.
There’s also a long list of players they met and didn’t draft. In 2016 Derrick Henry, Vernon Butler and Chris Jones visited the VMAC. They took Ifedi instead with their first pick. So there’s the perspective.
Yet there’s a trend occurring specifically at the safety position. Reid will visit the Seahawks. Last week they had dinner with Natrell Jamerson after the Wisconsin pro-day. In February Tony Pauline reported they were ‘looking hard’ at Wake Forest’s Jessie Bates III.
They could be doing due diligence. After all, there’s no point trading Earl Thomas if you don’t think there’s an adequate replacement available. Even if they planned to start Bradley McDougald at free safety, they’d likely want to know what the draft options are.
Thomas is also out of contract after the 2018 season. If he stays for one more year, they might be planning ahead.
The report about the Reid visit will add fuel to the fire that Thomas is about to be dealt. It’s gone a bit quiet after Jason La Canfora’s tweet/report on Thursday that the Seahawks were talking to potential trade partners. The detail presented (trade price, contract value) made it seem like a deal was close. Yet there hasn’t been any kind of update since. It makes you wonder if teams are playing a long game. Do they think they’ll get a cheaper price if they bide their time? Possibly.
The Seahawks have already moved Richard Sherman and Michael Bennett. If other teams believe they’re determined to move Thomas too — why are you going to pay a high draft pick? Wait it out until the Seahawks lower their demands.
Seattle’s only counter, because it’s obvious they are making major changes, is to try and create a lot of interest so teams feel like they have to act or they’ll miss out.
We could be witnessing a stalemate. No teams willing to pay the asking price, Seattle not budging. Who’s going to blink first? The Seahawks need the pressure of multiple interested parties to create some urgency.
There are plenty of teams out there that could use an upgrade at safety. Here’s the league-wide picture. A lot of the focus has been on Dallas yet Carolina, Denver, Detroit, the LA Chargers, Pittsburgh and Miami could all use an upgrade.
Regardless, it feels increasingly like the Seahawks are planning for life after Earl Thomas.
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Justin Reid is a very good player. BTW: I think the chances of trading E.T. is less than 50%. If a team wants to trade for Earl Thomas they are going to want to sign him to a long term deal. Earl is going to want a big pay day. I just don’t see a team giving Earl Thomas what he wants. Plus then throwing in a first round pick to boot. I see Earl playing out his contract and then becoming a free agent.
I think teams will be willing to give him the contract. I think a few will even covet trading for him. But I get the sense they look at the Seahawks as clearing house. They’ve already moved Sherman and Bennett. And if teams think Seattle is determined to move Thomas too — why are you going to pay a first round pick and a third round pick? Wait it out until the Seahawks lower their demands.
Seattle’s only counter, because it’s obvious they are making major changes, is to try and create a lot of interest so teams feel like they have to act or they’ll miss out. It’s not easy to do though. So they might end up having to lower their demands.
But right now it feels like we’re in a stalemate situation. No teams willing to pay the asking price, Seattle not budging. We wait to see who blinks first.
This might end up being a draft day deal. After the top 1 or 2 safeties come off the board, then other teams will get desperate. Might end up being a very wild draft the first day.
I think it’s very unlikely to be a draft day trade because of the contract situation. Any team spending a reasonably high pick on Earl Thomas is going to need to have his contract agreed first. That’s not possible if you’re making a deal in reaction to picks being made in the draft.
I suspect we’re witnessing a stalemate. Teams are unwilling to meet the asking price so far, knowing SEA wants to make changes. And SEA isn’t budging on asking price. So now it’s who blinks first. Unfortunately the only way seattle wins in that situation is if they can create some urgency which appears to be lacking currently.
This goes back to what JLC wrote a couple weeks ago in that, in the end, he sees Seattle dealing ET for a couple day two picks.
Rob: The only way I see a team trading for E.T. is a team that has a ton of cap space. Earl Thomas wants big bucks. Look what Houston paid Mathieu. They didn’t even have to give up a draft pick for him. I know Mathieu has lost a step but he is 2 or 3 years younger E.T.
The only reason for Honey Badger’s loss of speed was a knee injury and subsequent surgery. It’s not age related.
What may be taking time is the negotiating his long-term contract. A lot of moving parts. The trading team will want a long term contract if they are going to cough up the draft capital. There are likely several possible partners, thus complicating the negotiations. What does ET want? What is he willing to take? What are the Seahawks willing to take? This will differ with each potential trading partner.
ET is worth a lot right now for the right team. There are certainly several interested parties. Seattle seems intent on moving him. Hopefully Seattle gets what he is worth in the trade.
I think that a 1-st. and a 3-rd. aren’t written in stone.
It may be that a middle round 1-st would work, if it is then traded for a late 1-st and a 3-rd. = same end result with the Seahawks netting a 1-st. and a 3-rd. That would seem logical to me anyway.
Could they also ask him about his brother? I wonder. That’d be an interesting replacement for the LOB.
Like Justin Reid. He could be the defensive pick at the top of R2 if we trade Earl, then trade down.
Ouch (for Patterson)
I don’t think it will be and ouch for Patterson. Reports are the Pats have a big role for him on special teams, and plan to use him the way we used Percy Harvin in their offense. They feel he’s very special and explosive with the ball in his hands.
Should we bring in FA Damien Williams for a visit? He’s only 26 in April.
5’11”, 222, 4.45 40yd, 35.5 vert, 10’1″ broad
I could see that.
Seahawks could……..
Draft a Griffin and a Reid… to pair up with their Brothers on the same team (assuming Eric was signed by Seattle)… talk about a new type of brotherhood on a team.
I don’t know how I feel about Eric Reid… but I do love that idea! I really hope both Griffin brothers dominate in the NFL and make a name for themselves. It is a truly inspiring story!
Literally not anywhere close to a bad idea, btw.
L.O.B.=Literally our brothers
Great write up Rob, I learned a lot putting that 53 man roster together last night, even if we do keep earl or had kept Sheldon or Wagner and Wright, we have to look for replacements now. In 3 years this defense will have Frank Clark and Bradley McDougald as the oldest guys Griffin, Reed, Jones will also be up there too
I’ve always liked this lod’s Aggression and he’s always around the ball. His tackling form buys the heck out of me, but he’s always going to do whatever he can to bring the ball carrier down to the ground. Athletic enough. Might be a little small to cover the big tight ends, but nobody is perfect. If he were 6’3”, 220 lbs he would be a top ten pick. The thing is, let’s say we get a high pick for Earl. Are we really going to spend a top 40 pick on a safety? I think we would have a better shot at signing a veteran and drafting a guy later. I wouldn’t hate it if he found his way bro the Seattle roster. I would be a little upset if we got him over a top runner or a top guard.
What’s strange to me is how it feels that the draft is not that great of value for safeties but the market seems to very cold still this far into free agency.
I wouldn’t say there’s amazing talent out there but there are some interesting names, vaccaro, Reid being the most prominent.
Now I wonder if Seattle doesn’t trade earl but also doesn’t do an extension on him. He’s not in a great spot as it appears to hold out for an extension when the market isn’t moving.
Bugs the heck out of me*
I really wouldn’t mind taking a chance on Vaccaro, but I think he’s waiting for a bigger offer. He’s talented and yet He’s underachieved a little bit, not too mention the injuries in my mind he’s a strong safety all the way.
If ET and his agent comprehends how cold this market is for safeties, it’s possible ET gets traded with no contract and plays out the final year of his deal.
Duane Brown whined about his contract (wanted/demanded an extension) and reported after missing a handful of games. Then he got traded, only to play out the last two years of his current contract.
If the market remains cold on safety, it’s possible Earl might end up playing out the last season of his contract without an extension. The only difference, obviously, is it’s the off-season right now, whereas Brown dug his heals into the season a year before.
If ET plays out the last year of his contract, he has a better chance of having a good/great year. If he holds out, all players struggle more (at least out of the gate and are naturally more prone to injury, having missed training camp and things of that nature), it’s possible he’d hurt his contract year performance – which would hurt what teams may offer him as a free agent next off-season when he’s free to sign anyone.
Except, if you are giving up even close to what the asking price is purported to be, you aren’t giving that up to get a player for one year.
We might already have ET3’s replacement on the team. Most likely B McDougald is gonna take that job if we trade Earl. We also have Tedric Thompson waiting in the wings, so don’t need to panic for safety help. We should also be able to plug the SS hole with Hill or Alexander if Kam can’t make it back. There’s other areas of greater need, such as both lines of scrimmage. Sure hope we get a kings ransom if we trade Earl though.
Earl is 28 and a HOF talent. McDougald is 27 and JAG.
I heard a KJ Wright interview on the radio last week and he said some good things about Thompson. If we move on from Earl I’d hope it’s because we got a ton of draft capital and they saw something in one of the younger safety’s or potential draft picks. If earl wants 5 years 55 million that sounds like a deal to me. I read an article today that makes a pretty good argument for keeping Earl aligns with my thoughts.
http://www.hawkblogger.com/2018/03/seattle-seahawks-not-trade-earl-thomas.html
I think McDougald is most likely our starting SS in 2018 if Kam can’t play. Don’t think he has the range to play single high like our scheme demands.
I agree with you— there isn’t a perfect replacement for Earl, on the team or anywhere else. He’s one of a kind, but is it wise to make him the highest paid safety in the league at almost 29? It’s how we got into the mess we’re in now, by handing out to many big contracts to aging stars.
Fix the offense and running game so we don’t have to rely on a generational defense just to stay in games. Also, by playing the young guys will help us find the next stars. Reality of the salary cap, you just can’t keep paying everyone.
You can’t keep paying everyone, your right. But I think guys like Russ, Earl, Bobby, and Doug are worth top dollar until they show otherwise. Earl (and the others) have been everything I could hope for in hawks players.
I don’t know if it’s wise to make him the highest paid safety in the game at 28. I don’t have a crystal ball and I can’t know what will happen. I refuse to make my decision on earl based on what happened to Avril and Kam. I do think it is appropriate to make him the highest paid safety in the league at 28 considering what we know now and based on Earls value to the team. He is the best safety in the league, still in his prime and he has been very durable historically. Especially if he just wants 11 million APY.
Earl will be 29 in May and 30 before any extension he receives kicks in.
I’m glad you brought this up. I think the abundance of strong safeties means McDougald is highly regarded as the Kam OR Earl replacement. If Earl walks next year, I could see him sliding from starting SS to starting FS while we groom Tedric or a draft pick this year like Troy Apke.
Flexibility is important. You could have a three way competition between Hill, Thompson, and McDougald, since Bradley can play either spot. Bring in another versatile safety (either Reid fits), and let the competition begin. It makes sense that they are signing veterans who are good, but not so great or expensive that they shut down the competition.
McD didn’t really even play FS last year when Earl was out for a couple of games. Kam did. I think they signed McDougald to play SS only, not as a hedge for Earl.
McDougold ist going to be able to cover the ground he needs to at free safety, i suspect you are correct because i dont think the team wants played out JAGs, they want guys who have special attributes that they can develop, young players who they can take a chance on.
Do you think Reid projects as more of a Strong or Free Safety?
I ask because while Earl will probably need a hedge, we also still have a Kam-sized shape we need fill. Seems like we have a lot of guys that could play either/or right now, but no one that we know will excel particularly. Lots of ifs and maybes.
IMO, if we trade Earl, and that seems likely, we are only going to fill his spot in the short-term with “ifs and maybes”. The draft is not going to give us a sure thing in that position and we are sure not going to shell out the money to buy a free agent that approaches his quality either. We are going to have to make do with the best we can find until we get a better solution in place. But I think we will be OK and get through it.
As poor as our draft capital is this year, and given all the guys we have released, we could really use more draft picks from that ET trade to feel the other gaps, understanding that we would also need several three downs in order to get the number of players were going to need to get some decent quality to fill those holes. Also, I’m not sure if we even have the draft capital to make the moves in the draft we need to make the running game adjustments we need. I agree several other posts that the front office has probably figured out rolling the dice on a low-end FA or end of day three type draft pick RB is not the right approach and they will likely be looking for a higher quality pick and player to take on the primary role of helping to fix the running game, One of our obvious primary objectives.
That being said, I anticipate the ET trade happening in one way or another and the Seahawks adding more draft picks that they need. That sets up for a very very interesting draft for the Seahawks. In my opinion it will be more exciting, and I will be far more nervous, than drafts over the previous several few years.
We do need big time success in this coming draft.
I will say this: I think Reid is a free safety, but he’s not the same type of player as Earl. I think he will be more versatile in the way he’s used in the NFL, and I don’t know if sitting back in cover 1 is his best utilization. Line him up on a slot, then watch his play some cover two. He’s not s great tackler as I mentioned before, but he’s physical and fearless. He will put his nose in the pile. I think he can be a very effective FS. He’s just not a huge kid to be playing in the box like Kam, but if he improves his form tackling he can play there as well.
What are your thoughts on his tackling when compared to young Earl. I remember Earl missing tackles when he was young and working really hard on it to become a complete safety. Guys can develop in the NFL they just need to be committed, because they are finally at a level where athleticism alone will not carry them any longer. I think that’s what PC/JS are doing in the interview, trying to assess how much he loves the game and how coach-able he is. The talent speaks for itself.
Ah man can Kam please make it back to the field and resign earl. I don’t want to have to spend more capital at safety. Much rather try to land one player from each of the groups below.
Rb: Guice, Chubb, Johnson, Michael, Penny
OL: Hernandez, Wynn, Corbett, Price, Smith
Ideally we get Guice (or Chubb) and Hernandez (or Wynn) but I’d settle for Braden Smith and Rashaad Penny if we could address both positions.
Let’s sign Suh, extend Earl and hope Kam comes back (but don’t count on it). Then draft to improve the run game with our first two picks unless a stud front 7 player drops and you can’t pass it up. Still plenty of spots on the roster for young guys to step up.
I would love it if Kam could play at his usual standard and not risk serious injury. I would love it if Earl finishes his career as a Hawk. I don’t know if either of those can happen, however. Honestly, if you find a way to improve the line and the running back group, and you were to sign Suh, this team contends for a wild card spot next year. We still need a kicker, which definitely cost us some games this year. That needs to be rectified. The cost to sign Suh and Earl will be high, but next year the cap opens up. You know you’re going to have to upgrade the linebacker and safety spots even if they all come back next year anyway. Adding the ultimate intimidator at DT probably can’t happen if he sees Earl leave. We would have to outbid other teams significantly. Adding a bully at guard seems like a smart play as well. We have discussed this at great length. But Kam isn’t even sure that he will be good to go and it’s been since November 9th that he was injured. I think we have been spoiled with this secondary and we sometimes forget that usually isn’t the formula to win a title. Dominate the trenches and everyone else gets better around those units.
Darn, screwy name entry typo. LOL
Struggling with my iPad keyboard tonight . . .
Kam comment +1, but several of Pete’s comments sure lead us to believe that will not be the case.
Earl comment +1. I hope that opinion for quite a while, but I also had it for Sherm as well. Now, most of the signs appear to point to it being in the Seahawks best interest to get all they can from a trade for him this year. I need to draft capital I and need to get some positive player asset transition from him before his current contract ends and we are stuck with either having him be a free agent at the end of that contract for making him one of the highest pain free safeties in the league and eating up a ton of space that we need other places. Honestly I wish we were in a different position where I could have a different opinion, as all things being equal I would much prefer to have him be playing for the Seahawks until the end of his career, but unfortunately that just doesn’t seem reasonable anymore.
+100 kicker comment. Although our season didn’t really come down to this, we sure missed the boat when we switched kickers for 2017. I get the frustration from the previous year, but we got a serious
downgrade and it cost us and several games. It feels we are seriously exposed at the moment and I haven’t made much of an effort try to get that significant gap fixed. For me this is very frustrating as it feels like just a few million dollars in a contract would move us from a very poor and risky position to a very strong one. Even keeping the status quo From ’16 to ’17 would’ve been a far better decision than what we chose to do. Definitely can’t make that mistake again if we really want to be competitive.
Disagree on Suh. Although I’d sure like to have him, feels like we’re getting out of the high priced one-year rental business. We still may be stinging from what is now perceived to have been a bad decision doing this last year and losing a second round pick in the process and having nothing to show for it.
+1 trenches comment. I have a good feeling we’re going to make some progress in that area on both sides of the ball. Young and hungry competition plus a different coaching approach should be very helpful.
Nice post thank you.
drew: If the Seahawks want to be a playoff contender they need to sign Ndamkong Suh. Ohterwise they are just a pretender.
I also have that concern, but am getting the feeling the PCJS don’t share it. Doubt we will sign Suh.
I think our FA aquisitions will be less splash and more ripple.
I feel the focus is becoming the draft alone.
I think that’s what I was saying. If they want to sign him, they probably need to keep Earl so they appear to be still trying to contend. However, I don’t know what they really think that they wish to do. They may go cheaper and sign one of these veterans who have been released like Hankins, Etc. If I was trying to get to the playoffs in 2018, I sign Suh and probably keep Earl. I don’t know if they will. I’m a huge Suh fan, (since he was a junior in high school). I think he’s much better than Sheldon. I think he’s a top 4 DT, easily. He’s got the “it” factor and he would make Frank better, as well as Reed,Naz, etc. Bobby would love him as well. Maybe money is the only factor here and they can trade Earl and still convince him to sign. With those two, however, they get back to the playoffs with a renewed running game and relatively good health.
+1
Absolutely, Suh would make a huge difference. In addition to being awesome at football I think he’d bring a bad ass attitude that Frank and Reed would really feed off of. I’ve got no problems with a nasty DL that plays on the edge. I don’t see how their DL is good enough to contend without him (or an unforeseen trade) in 2018.
Good article, Rob. If the Hawks keep Thomas on the roster for 2018, then let him go to free agency they will get a decent compensatory pick. That way they retain his services for one more year, then get something for him. That option will strengthen their bargaining position for a trade. A team with draft picks and cap room may be enticed into a good trade for the Hawks.
If we trade ET and get some decent draft picks in the process that we can trade down with down/manipulate to get us where we want to be, we might be able to pull off something like this:
R2: Focal Running Back (RoJo or comprabable, although I agree there appears to be quality drop after he comes off the board)
R2: High end / starting OL (Wynn, Hernandez, Corbett)
R2/R3: SS/FS High end player that could eventually start and help fill the Kam/ET void (Reid/Bates,etc)
—(most of the rest cloned from Rob’s mock, loved it)——–
R3/R4— Best TE available, unless FA solves this need for this year (Dalton Schultz, Smythe)
[If TE not needed, perhaps Griffin here]
R4 — Leon Jacobs (LB, Wisconsin)
R5 — Tyquan Lewis (DE, Ohio State)
R5 — Tre Flowers (DB, Oklahoma State)
R5 — Dorian O’Daniel (LB, Clemson)
R5 — Jordan Thomas (CB, Oklahoma)
R7 — Natrell Jamerson (S, Wisconsin)
R7 — Chase Edmonds (RB, Fordham)
I would be thrilled with this and also would love to end up with a pair of Reid and Griffin brothers as well as a pack of nasty Badgers on the roster.
Go Hawks 2018 Draft
And on Santa’s which list, how about a kicker that doesn’t suck?
I really liked this previous post from JimQ: https://seahawksdraftblog.com/top-25-prospects-broken-into-tiers#comment-363072
um, I hope that the Suh visiting the rams is not going to happen….
I bet we have about a 15% chance of signing Suh. I have internally conceded it’s not going to happen as I’m expecting zero splashes in FA this year.
“Can confirm: Ndamukong Suh will be visiting with the Rams this week. If he signs, he would join a defensive line that includes Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers. Jordan Schultz of Yahoo! was first.”
I remember being a very young kid and the movie JAWS was on tv. There’s a part where one of the guys goes diving to check out a sunken boat. My parents warned me not to watch so I went around the corner and peeked through my fingers. I shouldn’t have. If Suh goes to the Rams it’ll be a similar situation. You pretty much know he’s going there just because it’s such a nightmare scenario for Seattle.
LOL Please no.
can you imagine? I would consider sitting Wilson 2 games next year
Seattle would be forced to add more talent to the interior o-line, either through free agency or the draft, if Suh goes to the LARs, IMO. Russell’s health has to be kept in mind at that point, because Donald and Suh would be a nightmare.
Suh might also be a nightmare for the Rams. He wants top dollar, and he can sit beside Donald and teach him how to milk every penny from the team. Hopefully.
Just trying to find a bright spot, as the thought of Donald and Suh together facing the Hawks is not a pretty one.
They just resigned Easley as well. I cant see him being a Ram unless its for a one year deal. They will have to pay Donald and Goff and Gurley here soon.
It is quite interesting the Rams are looking at Suh. Aaron Donald held out last year, and he’s still playing on his rookie deal (picked up 5th year option). They haven’t been willing to give Donald a long term deal (yet), but now they’re going to be willing to pay Suh? I can’t imagine Donald being too happy about it, I wonder if he will hold out again?
Pretty sure Donald knows how to milk every penny from the team already.
In light of the Patterson trade to new England, I was wondering what SDB thought of him back in 2013? I know that JS made statements indicating that Tavon Austin was the only guy in the draft that could provide what they wanted but it makes me wonder why CP wasn’t viewed in the same light. I know he was raw as a receiver, but when I look at how Harvin was used in Seattle it makes me wonder why CP couldn’t have been the answer? Great kick off returner. Used in bubble screens. Can line up as a rb. Can be used as a traditional wr too. Aren’t all these things that Harvin was supposed to do? Yes it would have been a luxury pick but would have been so much more cost effective than what we gave up. Also CP might be immature but he was never the cancer that Harvin was reputed to be before he even got to Seattle.
I’m not trying to do the hindsight thing. Just wondering how Patterson was viewed then. It seems one of our great strengths is building from within and this was the 1st of many splash moves designed to go over the top that backfired which also deviated from the way the Hawks had been building.
Thoughts?
.
My thought on Patterson was — one of the most creative playmakers with the ball in hand to enter the league in recent years. However, he wasn’t the brightest spark and the doubt was would he ever develop into a consistent and dependable receiver not just a kick returner, screen and bubble specialist.
His career has been exactly as expected.
Anyone provided any feedback on this small school De/Edge guy yet?
Not highly ranked, but love his Edge quickness and tape? Late round flier?
Joe Ostman C. Michigan Sr DE 24 6-3 255
https://youtu.be/I6ww1BoNQPc
Tony Pauline:
Pass rusher Joe Ostman, who had a fine week of practice before the Shrine Game, also impressed. He measured 6022 and 253 pounds, timed between 4.75 and 4.78 in the 40, had an impressive three-cone time of 7.06 and was in the low 4.3s for the short shuttle. Ostman completed 31 reps on the bench press, touched 36.5 inches on the vertical jump and reached 10-foot-2 in the broad jump. He looked good in all his drills.
Scrappy, hard-working, non-stop motor guy who had huge production in college. But undersized (very little length at 6’2″ with just 31 in arms) and hard to project if high effort will be enough for him to succeed on the edge in the NFL.
Haven’t watched more than highlights of him, so take the above with a grain of salt.
They’re going to get pennies on the dollar for Thomas because Carroll and Schneider still haven’t figured out how to play the trade game. They always overpay when buying and under charge when selling. Now they have telegraphed to the league that the Seahawks are rebuilding and Thomas won’t be around for that. If they knew they didn’t want him he should have been traded before half our hall of famers were cut or dealt. Now that our rebuild is evident teams will offer less since Pete and John clearly want to be rid of him.
This is a no-win for the Hawks, but they would be better off making ET3 play out his contract rather then taking less than a second rounder for him, which I’m dubious they’ll get.
I won’t debate the value of the previous trades, but your take on the Earl situation is a bit hindsight biased. There’s no telling when PCJS began shopping Earl. I fact there were rumors about shopping Earl way before free agency even began. I think it’s unfair to say they telegraphed anything when there wasn’t anything to hide in the first place. I will agree it’s a tough situation we are in regards to Earl though.
If a trade never happens and Earl holds out, are we able to legally release him? Anybody know the details on that scenario? Sounds drastic but I was on board with doing the same thing in 2015 with Kam. Moving on from Earl would definetly be more than a transition for this team, it would be a rebuild.
Trade will happen, it is just matter of time. Rob has a point, everyone knows that we want to trade him and they will wait. In my opinion (I know that Rob doesn’t agree with me) same problem we will have to trade back on draft day if we don’t acquire at least one day 2 draft pick. Everyone will be aware that we need to trade back and will try to use that situation.
Fair point about the draft but teams knowing we want to move back also means we will be the first call if teams want to trade up. I agree though getting value will be harder and if we trade Earl maybe rhey don’t trade back.
I completely agree I think there is an 80% + chance they trade Earl because the only two options are to extend him or trade him. The last thing they need is a holdout. Getting value is going to be tough and I think the best they can hope is a 2nd plus a 2nd or 3rd next year. Hoping for a 1st but think that might be fantasy land.
I would take 2018 R2+R3 (after all, isn’t that what we are hoping to get out of a R1 anyway…?), plus 2019 R2 (considered a R3 value a year ahead of time). If they want us to throw in one of our R5 this year, that’s fine too.
That would be perfect to get us out of the draft hole we’ve created in one fell swoop.
Agreed. I want/wanted to keep Earl, but with the number of holes on this team now (DL is so thin) they need draft capital more than an all pro FS.
Getting a 2/3 is acceptable. A single 1 is acceptable. I think they are floating the 1/3 idea out there but don’t expect it to fly. This way fans of the other teams will think they pulled one over after they give up less than that.
We’ve wanted to trade back quite aggressively the last two years too and had no issues.
Plus if we do trade Earl the urgency to move back is alleviated.
Perhaps, but looking at this draft class IMO they’d still be better off moving down.
Seems like there’s always teams who want to trade up every year, so it shouldn’t be hard to make a trade down deal. It just remains to be seen how good of a deal we can make, and how far down we go.
If we trade Earl and gain more picks it will make it easier to trade down since we’ll have more opportunities to select our guys.
Like it or not, we are in rebuild mode now. It makes sense to get as much as possible for Earl, and pass on Suh. Try to plug the holes with young, hungry players and make a bigger push next year when we have ample cap room.
I agree, I think Seattle made a push for Brown earlier in the year, but weren’t willing to pay the price Houston wanted for him. When they got desperate enough they made the call. I think the same thing could happen with Earl. Some team may be wanting to get him right now but may think they can get by without him, then when the season starts they may believe he is the missing link. We just might have to take picks for next years draft. There will be players in the draft we want to though so no big deal.
Some teams safety will get hurt next season and they will come running over to Seahawks. Just a question of who it is and how many draft picks they are willing to give up.
Seahawks need the picks now, not in 2019.
I see CB, RB, DT and WR as positions of interest for teams looking to trade up. I also think there will be 6 QBs selected in the 1st round. Possibly 3 more on the 2nd day.
Couldn’t they just throw ET a bone for this year and tag him for the following year?
I suspect they see this as the next part of the churn and the only way to recoup lost picks this year.
You could in theory let him play out this year and tag him twice. He wouldnt be happy about it but it could happen. Personally I believe if he isnt traded by draft day he will finish his career as a Seahawks.
Well he’s already threatened to hold out.
So you’d be taking a big risk if you tried to go down that road. It wouldn’t say much for the attempted ‘change in culture’ and new ‘buy in’ mentality if training camp was dominated by an Earl Thomas hold out story.
I think we have already done enough to change culture and agree with Largent80. ET3 still young and worth the $$s he’s asking.
The only part that makes trade required could be his attitude towards the PC message. The tiff with BWagz and cowboys incredibly poor decision don’t help but he can be a quirky guy.
We really don’t know if that was negotiation tactics OR he wants out so badly that he screwed up his own market by forcing Hawks hand. Both team and player’s interests are aligned if he truly wants out= keep his value up… The 2 are more at odds if he wanted to stay and pressure for an extension.
We don’t have to trade him… I think we keep him and extend as holding out also hurts him as well as team.
Picks may be valued too high v HOF player but t his is draftblog
O see this a lot and I’m not ever going to speculate that earl won’t one day be in the hall of fame but fans need to take a look at the hall of fame safeties.
Earl needs to put together some really big years going forward to be in that list.
Even when you compare him to say woods on earl sadly isn’t that close. Woods on was defensive player of the year/rookie of the year, five time all pro, two time interception leader…..
Easley was a four time first team all pro in only 7 seasons and defensive player of the year one time.I
the next comp to Earl in recent times would be polumalu at strong safety and I’m not sure I hear a ton of rumblings about him as a hall of fame and even he had a more illustrious career than Earl has.
Earl has had thus far a great career but 3 all pro seasons that are getting farther and farther into the sunset? I’m not sure that gets you into the hall of fame. Again not saying he can’t get there but he will need to have a few more all pro seasons or some how rings to get there.
Here’s the problem though…
Clearly the Seahawks are reluctant to pay Earl Thomas a third contract. Probably as a consequence of what happened with Bennett and Chancellor. So let’s assume that’s their position — that they aren’t giving him a new contract.
These are the options they have:
1. Trade him now for the best possible price.
2. Keep him and deal with whatever consequences follow
So what would the consequences of option two include? He’s threatened to holdout. It’s going to be hard to shift culture and get everyone ‘all-in’ again if one of the most high profile players refuses to play for the team. If he holds out or not, at the end of the season you’d either have to franchise him or let him walk. If he walks, you’re looking at a fourth round comp pick in 2020. The safety market is ice cold and the QB/WR/OL market is red hot. Even if Earl received an $11m a year contract as a free agent, he might not garner a R3 comp pick if the QB/WR/OL market remains where it currently is.
So there are lots of things to consider here. A best case scenario if you don’t trade him is Earl doesn’t hold out and is prepared to play on a franchise tag. And you probably get two more seasons out of him. Yet he’s already threatened to hold out.
If you trade him now you probably get a better price than a R4 comp pick in 2020 and you can fill out your draft board, which currently shows the #18 pick and then nothing until the mid-fourth round.
This logic is immutable.
SEA have been burned by big 3rd contracts before (recently, currently).
ET has an attitude problem.
His trade value, whatever that is, will never be higher than it is before the 2018 Draft.
SEA have ZERO picks between #18 and #120 (that’s more than 3 rounds – the FIRST THREE rounds – without a pick) and several large roster holes to fill.
if they have 80 mil+ cap room next year, they will not get a comp pick for Earl because they will be spending $$$.
So that will factor into their decision as well
Hey check that out! Sounders II (the backup development team) has been approved for a new Tacoma specific stadium. They’re even expected to rebrand to a Tacoma theme.
Grit City United?
I’m all over that. I love Cheney Stadium.
Maybe there should be more focus on finding a kicker and less on sending ET away for a couple more picks.. Pay the man he’s earned it.!
Wasn’t there an issue with Suh when he was trying to get out of Detroit? I remember a perception that he was a very disruptive player, but selfish. He went for splash plays at the expense of the defense’s scheme. He would work best where he can just cut loose and let the rest of the line try and fill in for him.
Since his move to Miami I haven’t heard that much, and I haven’t seen him. Would he fit within our scheme? Also, would his attitude be a help or a hindrance to our team? I guess I’d be willing to give him a shot if his price was right, but my idea of price for a very good TL is around $11M, which is about half of what he is used to.
I think that Mathieu signing opened some eyes salary wise. He is no ET but is a fine player and his market value was a lot lower than what I thought it would be and I also thought he may have been waiting for an ET move before signing. He said the heck with that and signed, so that may be an indication that ET will remain in Seattle (or not !!).
Earl’s salary won’t be the issue here. The issue is likely Seattle’s asking price and other teams believing they’re so determined to make changes, they’ll lower their price if they just bide their time.
Which means we’re stuck in a stalemate. Where teams think they can get Earl for a second or even third round pick instead of a first if they just wait this out.
Seattle needs to try and create some urgency to get the market working in their favour.
Rob I don’t disagree but you don’t think a premium player like ET sets his own market? Used like PC did he can alter an entire offense’s weekly game plan.
I think if he gets $10-11m a year he would be setting his own market. Nobody is paying for a safety at the moment.
There was speculation at the end of last week that leaked reports of an immanent trade for Earl and multiple suitors came out of Earl’s camp, and most likely his agent, and that would make the most sense. Certainly the teams that might be involved in such a deal wouldn’t want that information leaked, and the Seahawks, concerned about the wishes for anonymity of their potential trade partners and the fact that such a leak could kill a deal wouldn’t leak this. The one who benefits most from this leak is Earl and his agent, trying to create a sense of urgency for a trade – Earl is a hot commodity and in play, call the Hawks now or lose your chance.
If so, it signals a few things. First, there are no serious trade offers for Earl and Seattle is not interested in negotiating an extension at Earl’s price. And, that Earl really wants out of town. The big question is, if Earl doesn’t get what he wants and doesn’t get dealt, will he hold out to force the issue?
*imminent*
Mark, appreciate the thoughts, but unless you are speaking directly to John Schneider about the Earl situation, there’s no way to know what’s really going on. There could be multiple offers for Earl right now? The Hawks might be working on an extension right now?? Earl may or may not hold out, only he knows that! I’m certain we can agree that it will be good to get it sorted out one way or another sooner rather than later.
Seems fair that if we’re talking about a rumored trade, we should also look at the rumors about the rumors. Let’s get it all out there to try to draw conclusions (or our best guesses) as to what’s actually going on. Speculation and using what information we have to guess what the next Hawk moves are is what this site is all about.
1other possibility – trade has been agreed to in principle and the trading team is trying to work out an extension with Earl.
Not saying that is the case – just another scenario that would explain the report which included specific compensation and then why things went quiet.
It’s possible but I suspect it’d be done by now if that was the case.
Think Seattle hasn’t had anyone match their demands. And unfortunately, possibly won’t. They might need to be willing to accept a R2.
I guess Seattle gets whatever they get for Earl, but if that turns out to be less than what they gave up for Duane Brown? Yuck.
That’s probably a point they’re making to other teams. They paid a second and a third rounder for an older player. Teams might counter that by saying left tackle is a more important position with very few good LT’s entering the NFL in recent years (and the options continue to look thin in 2019).
But that might end up being what they have to settle for. A round two pick this year perhaps and a third in 2019.
Decent (and short) look at Seahawks drafting over the past 5 years
https://www.fieldgulls.com/2018/3/19/17120556/seattle-seahawks-havent-been-bad-drafting-recent-years-you-think-lockett-britt-ifedi-richardson
Overall it shows them as average.
The article conveniently ignores how well we have done with our first and second round picks.
McDowell, Pocic, Reed, Ifedi, Clark, Britt… I believe that’s it when it comes to round 1/2 picks the last 5 years that are still on the roster. Curious to see how that stacks up to the rest of the league, but it doesn’t seem great.
Kind of because the jury is almost entirely out on those guys
Maybe its just a common biased against early round picks you are espousing
“McDowell, Pocic, Reed, Ifedi, Clark, Britt… I believe that’s it when it comes to round 1/2 picks the last 5 years that are still on the roster”
Or we could say only Paul Richardson and Christine Michael aren’t on the roster from those rounds in those years. It’s actually a pretty good ratio of the picks. They traded some of the picks away before drafting, but it’s not like they’re letting those guys walk out the door all the time after drafting them.
John Kelly at Tennessee pro day. He just ran an unofficial 4.65…
Make that 4.5 https://www.rockytoptalk.com/2018/3/19/17137920/tennessee-pro-day-running-back-john-kelly-40-yard-dash-time-nfl-draft-2018
Looks like he did 4.5 on his second attempt. Interested to see if that will get confirmed.
Ditto.
Why?
Reid would be a great pick. I’d take him over his brother. Younger, cheaper, more versatile. Thought he was the most underrated safety going into the combine. Can play either safety position or even corner.
Seems to me that Seattle will chase a safety this year after all as they should.
If Seattle does end up signing WR Terrell Pryor or another FA wide out of similar build, I could see them targeting another one of those undersized, accounted for most of his teams production (passing game wise) wide receivers on day 3 or as a priority UDFA.
Keke Coutee says hello…?
Deontay Burnett
I’m convinced Keke will be a ‘Hawk if we get a third rounder through a trade (and another team doesn’t pick him up before us of course).
After adding two receivers already, not sure we’ll see a high pick on a WR. Especially in this draft class. Focus has to be on other areas.
Fair enough. I think it depends on what picks we end up with and what Earls situation ends up being. OL/RB/Safety/DL I think will be the top priority picks. Past the third round though I think PCJS will just pick whoever they like the best.
Not to mention Darboh and Moore from last year. Too many other needs (RB, OG/OT, DT/DE, CB, etc.) I’ll be surprised if they take a WR before R7, if at all.
Portland St CB Chris Seisay, transfer from Oregon, who met with the Seahawks at his pro day is a good looking prospect. Long, finds the ball, excellent techique. Extremely ‘Seahawky’ looking in this little bit of tape.
Chris Seisay vs BYU (2017):
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wxFogZX1JL4
Any relation to former Hawk Mo Seisay?
Definitely needs work. On the second and third plays on that highlight reel, he was beaten pretty badly and bailed out by poor throws. If the ball had been on target, both would have been scores. On the next play, a sweep, he’s the last line of defense and misses.
To his credit, he’s an eager tackler and willingly puts his head in there to make stops, even on runs up the middle. A lot of CBs shy away from that kind of contact. He also looked good in the rest of the video. Definitely something there that can be worked with.
Per Brady Henderson…
The Seahawks have picked up a $5 million option that will keep center Justin Britt under contract through 2020, according to a source. The option was included in the three-year, $27 million extension Britt signed last summer. Declining it would have voided the final year of the deal, making Britt a free agent after the 2019 season. That would have also meant his 2018 base salary jumping from $2.75 million to $7.75 million. With Seattle exercising the option, Britt instead receives that $5 million in the form of a bonus. His 2018 cap number remains $6.17 million.
Britt, not Pocic, is our center of the future. Pocic, provided he got stronger this offseason, is probably in competition at RG or will be a backup C.
Thanks for sharing Aaron.
I think Pocic showed great potential at RG for a first year. He is from what I hear doing exactly what I thought he needed to do, which is bulk up. Excited to see what can do going forward and with a new coach.
I guess the team is okay with mediocrity for a good price. This is a little surprising to me.
If a Pro-Bowl (alternate) level centre is mediocre then I’m happy with this. More than that, it shows concistency on the line, rather than the constant churn. Good news if it’s true.
I’m pretty sure there is a plan that we are only seeing the tip of. Positive they have evaluated every position as to what they have and where they want to be. Some of the replacement talent is already on the roster, we just don’t see them perform so are in the dark and feel shaky about the losses. The rest they’ll go out and get in one form or another.
Kind of scary going through this much change, from the known to the unknown, but it might be fun to watch it all come together.
One thing I’m sure of with this group is that there is a plan. The one thing they’ve never done let the wind take them wherever it decides. There’s always been a course, and a plan.
Agree completely that they have a plan, we just don’t know what the plan looks like. Wouldn’t it be cool if they could share their blue print for this off season with us loyal fans? Now we might not like or agree with the plan, but there will be one.
We’re already seeing it come together with the Mingo, Dickson, Brown, and Alexander signings. These are all stop gap moves designed to get us through this year without falling off a cliff. Although they might be better off tanking this year (higher picks), that strategy probably wouldn’t play well with the fan base that’s become accustomed to competitive, winning teams.
We’ll have a much better idea what the plan looks like over the next few weeks!
Looks like we signed Pryor:
http://www.prosportsdaily.com/articles/terrelle-pryor-agrees-to-twoyear-deal-with-seahawks-505436.html
Fake twitter account. Two n’s in La Canfora.
Fake Jason la Canfora account
Crap. The article cites Jason LaCanfora as its source for the signing but the Twitter account they linked to is a fake JLC account.
Apologies for unintentionally misleading.
No worries. Good on you for providing a link though. So many people just drop news in the comments with no link or source. Drives me batty sometimes.
T. Pryor agreed will be Seahawk for 2 yr deal. Now things are starting to moving.
Kickers not as fun but thinking with limited options maybe its time for Rob to scout international options — Australia is producing NFL kickers. Any one over on your side of the pond we can get to kick for us??. Have to be better than Blair Walsh project
Fake Jason la Canfora account, fake report
NOOOOO Bummer. Hopefully still possible
I’d love him for the right price. Great athlete when he came here a few years ago as a backup QB. Russ needs bigger targets.