I haven’t commented on mock drafts this year, mainly because most of them have had the same player at #16. Dane Brugler’s latest in the Athletic follows suit. However, I think his seven round mock today is interesting and worth a post. He did about as good a job as can be expected in terms of projecting a realistic haul for the Seahawks.
There are still a couple of things I think are unlikely. He has the Seahawks using four consecutive picks on defensive players. I think there’s likely to be more of an offensive focus than this. There’s also, in my opinion, absolutely no way Ben Sinnott lasts to round four. Tight ends who carried their teams’ passing game, possess elite physical traits, have A+ character and can both block and make plays as a receiver, tend go in the top-60. They don’t last to round four.
Regardless, I wanted to break-down Brugler’s picks for Seattle:
#16 Troy Fautanu (T, Washington)
#81 Jonah Elliss (EDGE, Utah)
#102 Cedric Gray (LB, North Carolina)
#118 Dominique Hampton (S, Washington)
#179 Keith Randolph (DT, Illinois)
#192 Jordan Travis (QB, Florida State)
#235 AJ Barner (TE, Michigan)
#16 Troy Fautanu (T, Washington)
I don’t think he will last to #16. I think the media talked so much about his size during the season (and the expectation that he’d have to move to guard) that when it became clear he had tackle size and traits, opinions haven’t been adjusted. His tape, playing style, physical traits and character are top-10 pick worthy. If he lasts to #16, the Seahawks should run to the podium (and probably will). I think he’d end up playing right tackle rather than guard. This would be an A+ pick for Seattle, with Fautanu destined to become a top NFL lineman within two years. I think he’s a far better left tackle prospect than Charles Cross was.
#81 Jonah Elliss (EDGE, Utah)
I talked yesterday about a group of three edge rushers who will probably intrigue the Seahawks — Marshawn Kneeland, Bralen Trice and Jonah Elliss. They all ran short shuttles in the 4.17-4.19 range, which is often a strong indicator for edge rushing skills translating to the NFL. People might not think much of this pick but Elliss’ agility, explosive traits and quickness off the edge feel ideally suited to Mike Macdonald’s scheme. The only quibble I’d have is Brugler has Elliss going ahead of Trice, which I think is unlikely. I like the fit and the upside as a rotational EDGE — and this would allow the Seahawks to save a few million by cutting Darrell Taylor.
#102 Cedric Gray (LB, North Carolina)
The Seahawks are going to draft a linebacker at some point. I don’t think it’ll necessarily be a high pick — it’ll be someone who acts as depth in 2024 and they can assess whether they want them to start next year. Day three is the ideal range to bring someone in and the value matches up with Gray. He works well in coverage (this was particularly highlighted during the Senior Bowl game) and he has some decent physical traits (4.64 speed, 1.59 split, 35.5 inch vertical). However, he’s mostly a WILL linebacker. I do think Nathaniel Watson — who can play inside or outside backer in the 3-4 — is probably a more apt fit. Plus, he’s a terrific blitzer. Brugler has Watson lasting to round six.
#118 Dominique Hampton (S, Washington)
As a pretty much lone voice banging the drum for Hampton to Seattle, amid a sea of ‘Cooper DeJean’ chatter, I was delighted to see this pick in the mock. A quick reminder, the player many project to be a high pick at safety for Seattle, had 1183 snaps at corner for Iowa, 173 in the slot, 23 in the box and one solitary snap at deep safety. Hampton had 366 at deep safety, 296 in the box, 249 in the slot and 36 at corner in 2023. He had 503 snaps in the slot in 2022 alone. He is far more suited to the role people project for DeJean. Sources at UW say he’s a quiet killer, intelligent, disciplined, versatile and we saw at the combine he’s a great athlete. He’s an ideal pick for them. The only problem is, I doubt he lasts to #118.
#179 Keith Randolph (DT, Illinois)
As a late round flier at defensive tackle, Randolph makes sense. He had a good Senior Bowl and he was a captain at Illinois. I had him in round four, based on his time in Mobile and subsequent tape study. Yet he lacks great physical upside, meaning he could last into this range. The Seahawks have numbers at defensive tackle but adding someone to compete for a depth role makes sense.
#192 Jordan Travis (QB, Florida State)
I do wonder if the Seahawks will almost force themselves to draft a quarterback at some point, if only to avoid having to talk about another year passing where they avoided the position. I’m not sure Travis would be the man, though. He lacks the big physical tools John Schneider tends to value. He’s undersized and has looked tiny in his rehab videos. He’s also recovering from a serious injury which makes me think the chances are he’ll go undrafted. He played well at Florida State but he also nearly quit football not that long ago. It’s hard to imagine him starting in the NFL.
#235 AJ Barner (TE, Michigan)
A solid blocking tight end. The Seahawks need to add a TE in this draft because they only have two on the roster. Having already signed a blocking tight end, I think they’re more likely to draft a move-TE. But they will add at this position. Barner ran a 1.65 split and a 4.41 shuttle. I think there are higher upside-plays to be had on day three.
Things I would do differently
I think it’s quite possible, maybe even probable, that Seattle’s first two picks will be an O-liner and D-liner in either order. However, if they take Fautanu I do expect it’ll be with the intention of him starting at right tackle.
The situation with Abe Lucas’ knee is clearly serious. As I’ve kept mentioning, Scott Huff used converted tackles at left guard in each of the last two seasons. Both players were similarly sized to Lucas. They might switch him to guard when he’s ready to return.
There’s no guarantee there, though — that he returns and plays or that it’s a good fit. So I think it’s very likely one of Seattle’s other picks would be guard depth. Perhaps a Trevor Keegan or Kingsley Jackson.
I think they’ll draft a different type of tight end. Jack Westover (who I will be interviewing this week) would be a great shout. Jaheim Bell, Dallin Holker and Cade Stover would also make sense.
If Dominique Hampton lasts to round four, you probably don’t risk him lasting to #118. Take him at #102. If Nathaniel Watson is legitimately going to last to round six, take him in that range instead of going linebacker in round four.
Final thoughts
A seven-round projection like this is realistic for the Seahawks. I’ve done other mocks myself where people have said they’re realistic but unexciting. I’ve agreed with that assessment. Every time I see a mock like this, or put one together, it always feels a bit ho-hum.
Clearly Fautanu would be an outstanding addition. I also think the other players make sense, based on need and profile. Yet the Seahawks need a difference making draft, not one that just basically addresses a few areas sensibly and methodically.
I don’t have a great answer as to how the Seahawks achieve this, other than to pitch a couple of suggestions — one more realistic than the other.
Perhaps the Seahawks take Fautanu at #16 if he’s there, as we see in Brugler’s mock. Then they trade up from #81 to take Spencer Rattler (who was the 76th pick to Denver). It wouldn’t be an expensive move. If they did that, clearly the Seahawks would rate Rattler and that would be somewhat exciting. We could at least hope that he could be a long-term answer at QB, while also knowing you improved the O-line with Fautanu. There’d also be no pressure to start Rattler as a rookie. It’d be the Seahawks starting the process of trying to find someone who can be the future at the most important position in sport.
Some people won’t be excited by this because they don’t rate Rattler like I do. I think he outplayed Drake Maye when they faced off last season. I think he faced a lost-cause at South Carolina — with a shocking O-line, no weapons outside of Xavier Legette and a problematic defense. He made them more competitive than they had any right to be.
His lack of size bothers me but he does have natural talent as a passer. I don’t envisage the Seahawks doing moving up a few spots in round three to take him but I’d be happy if they did. If he ended up becoming a plus starter, along with Fautanu, that’d go a long way towards a transformational draft.
That’s the more realistic scenario. Now on to the one that’s a bit more far-fetched.
Let’s say the Commanders decide that their hole at left tackle is so big, it’s of greater value to them to own the #16 pick and take, say, Olu Fashanu, than it is to own #36 and #40 and be on the outside looking in for the better tackles. Let’s say they give you both picks.
From there, you trade up from #36 into the last few picks of round one to take Michael Penix Jr, who in this scenario didn’t go in the top-20. Regardless of what you personally think about Penix Jr, here we’re saying that Schneider’s a fan, Ryan Grubb’s an even bigger fan and they see him as the long term answer. Then, you use #40 to either trade down and pad out your draft board or you hit on an impact player. Perhaps someone like Braden Fiske, who has obscene athletic upside (even if his medical checks could impact his draft range). You then add a guard in the middle rounds who ends up being a plus starter.
If you could get a quarterback for the future, an impact defender and a solid starting guard — you might have the makings of a transformative draft.
However, this would also require the Commanders wanting to be this bold, Penix Jr falling, the Seahawks believing Penix Jr is special enough to invest in and they’d need to hit on other picks. There’s a lot going on there.
It’s a thought though, if nothing else.
If such a scenario was in some way possible, I don’t think Schneider would shirk it. As I noted yesterday, when he was Director of Football Operations in Green Bay, the Packers used a second round pick on Brian Brohm. That’s despite already having just used a first rounder on Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre was still playing. If Schneider was part of a front office that was prepared to have Favre, a first round pick and a second round pick as their QB depth chart — the idea of using a high pick on Penix Jr to go with Geno Smith (on a short-term deal) and Sam Howell (a cheap backup) is certainly not preposterous.