Michael Penix Jr wowed against Texas in the playoffs
I decided not to write this article immediately after the Washington vs Texas game as planned. I wanted to take a few hours to think about it and for good reason.
There’s a lot to consider when discussing Michael Penix Jr. Online I’m seeing a lot of ‘OMG top-10 pick’ stuff — from big-name media types, not just fans.
I want to try and provide the best, most complete analysis of the player I can provide. There will be nuance, to go with the gushing praise he deserves for a terrific performance last night. All I ask is you read the whole thing before commenting as I’m going to cover several different angles here.
Firstly, let’s reflect on what Penix showed against the Longhorns. It was him at his best. I’ve said it for over a year that Penix has the prettiest spiral and most eye-catching arm talent I’ve seen since Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. They had ‘needs to be seen to be believed’ levels of torque. The RPM’s were off the charts and Penix shares that trait. For that reason alone, he is an exciting player. It doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily reach their level but it does mean he has the clubs in the bag.
There have been a lot of UW games this year where the accuracy has been off and I’ll come to that later. In this game, however, virtually all of the big shots were thrown with perfect accuracy. I’ve watched the game twice — once live and once on repeat. I like to track the air-yards rather than air + YAC to judge accuracy/arm talent. There aren’t many quarterbacks who can throw to a spot with touch and velocity like Penix and I tracked 43, 36 and 55 yards downfield. The throw to Jalen McMillan over the middle, layered between two defenders for a touchdown, was also an excellent pass.
He stretches defenses and there’s always the threat of the big-play to be mindful of. It keeps opponents honest and provides complementary opportunities in the run game. You could see Texas were compromised — knowing they had to risk 1v1 shots otherwise they’d give up other opportunities. Penix feasts when he’s in this kind of form, against a team trying to pick its poison in how to defend such a threatening, dynamic attack.
Onto the first bit of context though. I’ve had two people tweet me to compare what Penix did to C.J. Stroud’s performance against Georgia a year ago. I would avoid that. Stroud was facing one of the best defensive units college football has ever produced. He faced constant pressure and was having to improvise, throw spectacularly on the run, he had to make huge gains with his legs on scrambles (not designed runs). This isn’t me being negative about Penix in any way. I just want to give Stroud the credit he deserves for a solo performance that should’ve confirmed him as the #1 pick last year. We’ve since seen in the NFL that talent translate.
Penix’s display was within structure with a lot less pressure against a far weaker opponent. He did an outstanding job. I just don’t think we’ll ever see a performance quite like Stroud’s against a college football juggernaut.
I’ve seen people question a little bit at times whether Penix is a great athlete (there have often been comments about his lower body muscle-tone for example). It’s nonsense. He isn’t necessarily a fantastically agile, elusive player who is going to be dodging pass rushers like prime Russell Wilson to extend plays. That’s not his game. He is an exceptional athlete though. I’ve been in the Washington facility, been in the weight room. I’ve seen the numbers. Most people don’t know Penix has jumped a 38 inch vertical. That’s remarkable for a quarterback and speaks to the power in his lower body — and it’s no doubt one of the reasons why he generates so much torque and velocity in his throws.
As we saw with some of his runs yesterday, he also has more than adequate straight-line speed. I think his overall physical profile is a big plus. He will be able to make occasional plays with his legs, even if it’ll be more ‘situational’ than by design as we’ll no doubt see with Jayden Daniels (and to a lesser extent Caleb Williams). Even so, while he might not be a great scrambling runner — we saw numerous examples of world class throws on the run in 2023. The throw to the left sideline against USC to the tight end was the throw of the year for me. Off-balance, very little room to reset, placed to the perfect position on the field to make an enormous, improbable play. There were several examples of this special playmaking ability.
When I was watching the game yesterday, I just kept thinking that this is modern football perfectly exemplified by Washington. A big-armed passer, multiple great weapons to throw to meaning you can attack opponents on every level. The run game complements everything by feeding off the threat of the pass. Washington has one outstanding pass rusher who can impact games at a high level. It’s a winning, translatable formula and it’s how many of the pro teams succeed.
I love watching tough, physical, traditional football too — and Washington will face that against Michigan next week. Both styles can work. Yet as I was watching the Huskies, I just kept thinking to myself — I’m ready for the Seahawks to try this. They have the weapons. They possibly don’t have the star pass rusher on the roster but do have some pieces. It would be nice to tap into what the Ravens have done to promote their overall defensive unit without a ton of big names but offensively, this feels like the way forward short of being able to find the next Shanahan or McVay.
Trying to copy the glory days of 2012-14 feels like a fools errand. The talent isn’t there to mimic it. It’s time to try something new, as we’ve been saying. The Huskies are a great example of what could be a formula for a new era.
I would be happy to draft Michael Penix Jr to play within a system like that. He’s shown he can not only produce at a high level but he has also elevated his team way beyond what was realistically expected when Kalen DeBoer took over. They are in the National Championship game, with a realistic shot at winning the whole thing. After last year I wasn’t sure anyone other than Georgia, Ohio State or Alabama would ever win this thing. The Huskies actually could and they couldn’t do it without their QB.
This matters to NFL teams. Elevating the overall performance of your club, enjoying unexpected success, leading from the front, producing in big moments. These are all things Penix has achieved in Washington. It is more impressive for him than it would be for a quarterback doing the same thing at an Alabama or Georgia.
If you draft him I think you would have to set the team up to play with high-octane passing as the identity and mentality, with everything else feeding off it. You’d need to take shots, you’d also need to structure your offensive line to be able to pass protect well.
The overall point I’m making though is there are some players eligible for the draft I wouldn’t have any interest in. Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy for example. I don’t get it. I’ve never got it. Why is he being talked about as a first round pick? I guess some GM’s have talked themselves into drafting E.J. Manuel and Christian Ponder in the top half of round one before, so anything is possible. Yet on an arm talent and production level, I’ve never seen anything to justify the round one chatter.
Penix is different. I would be interested in drafting him. It wouldn’t matter if he failed, either. The idea that you wait until the perfect player comes along and then everything is great is for the birds. The Seahawks need to start thinking long term at the position and that might mean a couple of attempts at this. If they are prepared to actually bite the bullet and take on an offensive personality and identity moving forward, putting together an offense that suits Penix would be a plan that makes sense.
Now, there are other things to mention. I have watched Penix live. Watching him live made me realise how important it is to see quarterbacks live and get that perspective. I was sat about 10 yards away from a Seahawks scout at the Apple Cup who was also no doubt watching closely. I wasn’t that impressed with that performance. I wasn’t that impressed for a decent chunk of this season if I’m being honest.
He started the year throwing 74.9% completions in his first five games. He then went on an eight-game run where that dropped to 60.1%. I’ve seen a lot of people suggest there must be some secret injury. Others have blamed the weather in certain games. I think it’s as simple as he struggled against increased pressure and the ‘big shots’ became too big a focal point. A lot of passes were being armed downfield into areas, rather than being thrown with the precision and accuracy you want to see. I can understand why you might see a 1v1, throw it downfield to Rome Odunze and if he can’t get there nobody will. But there were too many games where there were too many inaccurate throws like that and it’s why the numbers dipped.
During these two same split periods, his average ‘big time throws’ per game stayed exactly the same (2.6 per game). So he was still completing the big, eye-catching plays — there were just an increasing number of bad throws/incompletions to go with it. This is also why his PFF grade in the same periods started well at 89.9 and then tailed off to 71.6.
I want to bring this context to the table because I don’t think many people will discuss it in the aftermath of an outstanding performance. Teams will need to work out, though, whether they have a scheme and the weapons capable of exploiting the big play stuff and whether they can live with games or even stretches where there are a lot of incompletions. I can well imagine there could be 6-7 game periods where things don’t go that well and you might be relying on 2-3 big plays from Penix, on top of possible turnovers not just incompletions, and hoping that you can compensate and elevate around the QB. He might be streaky — but the one thing he’ll always have is the big-play ability, the explosive plays and the potential to score quick, cheap points. I think peak Penix will be a player who wins games with his arm, occasionally generates incredible buzz but will also have people second-guessing him when he has stretches like we saw in 2023. It’s whether those stretches become the norm in the far tougher NFL.
There are other things that you have to discuss when judging Penix. The first one is the obvious one — injury history. The medical testing at the combine will be huge. He had four consecutive season-ending injuries from 2018 to 2021, including tearing his right ACL twice. We can sit hear and discuss the arm talent for weeks and one bad medical test could make it all a moot point. Let’s hope that isn’t the case.
Coaching is a big thing. Clearly DeBoer is a star. He has won 21 straight games for the Huskies. He’s not doing this at Alabama. It’s Washington. If he wins the title next week, the statue should be commissioned immediately. I’m starting to wonder what his destiny is. There’s no guarantee Penix is going to luck-out and land on a NFL team with a brilliant, competent staff. The opposite could be true. It helps that Penix has also worked in this system for years — at Indiana and Washington. It’s also a system that, if we’re being honest, has provided an opportunity to play pitch-and-catch in a number of games over the last two years. It’ll be a whole new world in the NFL with far more complexity and he won’t get years to master everything before getting the chance to start. This doesn’t diminish Penix’s talent in any way but we do need to acknowledge the benefit of great coaching and a system that seems to be extremely effective with different teams/players during DeBoer’s career.
Then there’s the supporting cast. Rome Odunze, when he runs a 4.3 or 4.4 at the combine, is going to go in the top-12 picks. His body control, ball-tracking, hands and consistency is outstanding. Having him alone would be a benefit. To have Odunze and Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk (described to me as the ‘dog’ on the roster) is a situation most QB’s don’t have. Then you throw in a player like Jack Westover who seems to have an unfortunate number of inaccurate throws go his way, only to make an improbable acrobatic catch virtually every time.
To go with the great weapons, the Washington O-line just won the Joe Moore Award for the best blocking unit in college. This is the award Michigan won the last two years. They have a left tackle who will be a top-20 pick as a possible guard convert. They have a right tackle who, at worst, will be a day two pick this year. Everyone associated with the Huskies seems to love the center. Washington are giving up only 0.8 sacks per game this season, a record only topped by Oregon (0.4) and Liberty (0.6). In comparison, South Carolina and Alabama had the joint eighth worst lines for sacks per game (3.7). So it shows how Penix has benefited from great play up front.
Again, the chances are he’s not going to go to a team in the NFL with great receivers and a great blocking line. I’m confident Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye will be able to combat that early in their pro-careers with their mix of elusiveness and in the case of Maye, size. They are more improvisational players. Penix is going to need more of a set table. His best bet is to go to a team that has already been building a roster, rather than a team that is starting over. While Seattle’s O-line needs further improvements, they are a better option for Penix (provided they shift identity somewhat) than say a Washington, New England or New York Giants.
I think NFL O-lines in particular could be an issue. As a noted in a recent article:
His technique requires him to put his body into throws and this won’t be conducive with the quicker game at the next level where he’ll face constant pressure and need to deliver passes on time. He struggled in two games where he faced consistent pressure and 50% of his pressures this season (39/78) came in three consecutive games (Oregon, Arizona State, Stanford).
I think it is a question whether he can do a quick drop, set and fire consistently, working to the shorter/intermediate levels and throwing with layered precision. That hasn’t been a big feature in college for him. The deep shots will always will be there, as will the screens and the throws to the flat. But if the pressure is coming fast and frequently, can he sit tight and deliver hot between defenders? This is a question we have to ask about a lot of players to be fair. It’s easier, however, when you see examples on tape. We saw it a lot with Spencer Rattler at South Carolina because he was being hammered every week and still delivered those types of throws. With Penix, we haven’t see it as much because the situation is so different.
Now — last night was critical and did make me think he can overcome and develop this challenge. He faced 15 total pressures, the second most he’s faced this season (there were 18 pressures against Utah). His production was outstanding despite this and he finished with a 93.5 PFF grade — his highest of the season.
Let’s look at his top five graded games this season and compare the pressures:
Boise State (84.4) — 6 pressures
Tulsa (90.1) — 3 pressures
Michigan State (91.8) — 11 pressures
California (93.4) — 7 pressures
Texas (93.5) — 15 pressures
As you can see, last night was a far more challenging contest with the high grade hard-earned compared to some of the easier contests at the start of the season. Penix also had six ‘big time throws’ yesterday, the most he’s had in a game this season. This is all really good evidence for the NFL and was likely far more of a boost to his stock than any optics of the pretty throws we already knew he could deliver.
He’ll face another stern test next week. Michigan created 11 pressures against Alabama QB Jalen Miroe and he struggled badly in the passing game. It’s a perfect next test for Penix and Washington.
The final thing I will mention is the fact Penix is left handed. It was mentioned to me recently that a lot of teams don’t like this because the whole offense has to change and adapt. It’s not just a case of the right tackle effectively protecting the blind-side. Receivers have to adjust in a big way too, as do some route-concepts. That will be a thing to consider, as I wasn’t aware how impactful it can be.
Even so, Tua Tagovailoa — who didn’t have anywhere near Penix’s arm strength and entered the league with a serious hip injury — was taken fifth overall despite all of this and being a lefty. I think Tua is actually a good possible comp for Penix. He’s like Tua with a cannon arm. He doesn’t have the college hype that Tua had — plus he’s older. We need to remember that Tua was basically the first ‘hyped’ QB Alabama had in a long time and there was a ‘tank for Tua’ movement at one stage. Penix is unlikely to go as high as Tua, I’d suggest, for the reasons listed above. But they have similar pro’s, con’s, supporting casts — and Penix has a better arm. So I guess you never know.
Tua looked mediocre within a mediocre Miami offense. With a superior offensive mind running the Dolphins and with the addition of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, he looks far better. Penix will likely need these same things, I’d suggest. If he gets them, I’d guess he can be very productive.
Initially I graded Penix in round three on my horizontal board, while believing he would go in round two. I think a lot of teams will have something similar when they consider the full picture as discussed in this lengthy piece. A performance like last night can change things. Perhaps not enough to jump two rounds on a board but possibly to earn round two consideration with a chance to get into round one with sound medicals.
This profile is well over 3000 words now. I hope it is useful. Well done if you read it all. I think it’s the nuance that is needed after a big performance that is generating a lot of hype. My prediction remains that Penix will be taken in the top-50. I think the talk of second overall etc is a bit rich. I would consider drafting him for the Seahawks and believe he will be there for them if they want him — but I would want that to coincide with changes in coaching and philosophy.
Some other quick notes…
— I think defeat for Texas means Quinn Ewers will remain in college. However, he’s still hedging his bets so we’ll see. Texas struggled with their play-calling throughout and never found any rhythm. I still think at the end we saw the natural talent Ewers possesses. The throw from his own 38, delivered with perfect touch, dropped to the opponents 30 for a 42-yard throw, hitting the receiver in stride for added YAC, was a thing of beauty. He probably does need another year of seasoning but he has amazing natural talent as a passer with a super-quick release. Cam Ward surprisingly snubbed NIL deals to turn pro this week so who knows? I think either decision by Ewers would be understandable.
— As mentioned earlier, J.J. McCarthy doesn’t interest me. I gave him a mid-round grade but I wouldn’t draft him. He has limited arm talent and upside and I’d look in other places for a new QB. He is not exciting.
— Bralen Trice is very underrated nationally and in draft media. He was a terror against Texas. A reminder — he runs a 4.2 short shuttle at about 270lbs.
Note — Today’s stream with Jeff Simmons has been postponed and will now take place tomorrow at 2pm PT.
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Thanks for the article Rob, spectacular as always, at this point we are so in need of so many things that I would not take a dim view of DeBoer as HC for our Seahawks (you can tell he knows how to work), Cam Ward (probably 3rd round ? ) I think it’s VERY INTERESTING for Seattle, at this point I’m not really convinced by Ewers, I try to see it in a positive light, but he never quite convinces me
I like Ewers and Rattler. Would be happy if Seattle picked up either. I’d be excited if we got Penix too but it would take scheming around him that we’ve not had in years plus we’d need some more O line talent.
I don’t see DeBoer’s talent translating well to the NFL. A big part of his success is his ability to choose players who buy into his philosophy. He creates an environment with very little ego. Good luck with that in the NFL.
I’d not be surprised if Ward pulls out of the draft. I don’t see him going before day three and he could slip a long way. The guy really needs another year of college with a coach who can instill some discipline. Ewers is far more ready that Ward.
Rob – thanks for the great, well-reasoned and meaty writeup. As I read it, I found myself reading one paragraph and then thinking “yeah, but what about ….” and then in the next paragraph you addressed what I had doubts about. For example, as impressed as I am with Penix’s skills, I worry about his injury history. Can he stand up to the physical beating he will face in the NFL, or will he be able to avoid taking the really big hits. But, in a way, his injury history may work in the Seahawks’ favor because it may turn some teams off. Just like last year, if a QB that we like is available when we make our first pick, we have to take him. So far, I like Daniels, Rattler, and Penix in no particular order, recognizing that they have different strengths.
Pete on the 710 show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ovc2ehlRBU0&ab_channel=SeattleSports
I’m a few minutes in and not sure if I’ll be able to make it. Right off the bat:
– Got run on because they were focused on preventing explosive plays
– Fixed the run defense in the 2nd half
– Game was close the whole way
– Guys not tackling isn’t because lack of effort, in fact sometimes it’s because of too much effort
Seriously, WTF man? Not even 3 minutes in and has already excused away everything. Gaslighting at it’s most obvious.
I wonder who cooked up the idea that missed blitzes, and bad tackling was because too much effort?
That person needs to be shown the door.
Our coach has become the worst kind of person to hear from. Arrogant and ignorant. Dude is cooked. Two more years because he’s “earned it.”
Absolutely. It’s subtle, but you can actually see the rotten core of ‘always compete’ in this interview and why we are always spinning our wheels in the mud.
Bad decision to challenge? Not so fast my friend. PC and Tater saw something live (is Tater seriously the guy in the booth telling Pete what to challenge or not? Priceless). Trust the 72 year old and the 75 year old in the booth to call it live. Further – Pete wasn’t worried about the timeout if there was a chance they could get a stop.
Then the onside kick. Needed to get a stop, so why not also get a 1/30 chance for the onside recovery. Sure there will be an extra 50 yards to go if we don’t pick the right number on the roulette wheel, but that a problem for another day.
Maybe the onside attempt was a good one. But it is a symptom of how always compete has metastasized into something cancerous. The playing for the immediate now with no regard to what is to come. “I didn’t care about the timeout” – are you shitting me? You’re a head coach in a one score game with under 6 minutes to go and you don’t care about a timeout? Bad process, bad decision.
Now I can look back and use this same mindset on all of our tragic trades and extensions, but let’s look at Leonard Williams.
Can’t you just see Pete saying the same thing? I don’t care about the 2nd & 5th round picks if I have a chance to get LW.
What about the fact that he doesn’t have a contract Pete? I don’t care about the contract if we can get him under the cap this year.
Now it’s just a thrown away pick, like dead cap. People saying ‘if we don’t extend LW’… who are we kidding? Why would he sign an extension without testing his market? We have a terrible defense, a rotten culture and no money. Was the long-term (or medium-term) ever considered or just the instant dopamine that hits like when you buy a Powerball ticket?
Pete needs to go for many reasons, but these impulse decisions that focus on the moment over the whole are possibly the most unforgivable.
LW to the Rams.
Really though the LW “we hope to sign him,” stuff is so baffling. Then where’s the extension?
Or- did you trade for richardson and clowney with no intention of resigning them?
“Hope to” usually means “not happening”
Did he mention “business decisions”?
This is all the guy has left. He’s been reduced to making excuses for trash defensive play year after year after year. Thing is, the defense has been crap for 5 straight seasons with no improvement over that time.. Maybe it’s as simple lousy players and crummy coaching.
This guy MUST go.
Masochist that I am, I did watch the whole thing.
Time of possession is a huge problem for us. We are dead last in the NFL and it isn’t even close. Cleveland has has the ball for over an Hour and a half of game time more than we have through 16. I’m still kind of staggered by that number. The Browns offense has the ball for 6+ full quarters VS our offense.
They kind of touched on it, but in that candy-coated way the Seattle media does. Pete’s response was to basically blame the offense. No mention of how Pete’s defense is bottom 5-10 in the NFL for almost every defensive metric that means anything. Nope, to hear Pete tell it, the problem is that we don’t have a Derrick Henry or Najee Harris in our RB room.
You see, as Pete explains our young RB’s are still developing… Oh! THAT’S WHY we are dead last in time of possession. Not because the shitty defense can’t ever get off the field on 3rd down (31st in the NFL). Not because we can’t stop the run (30th in the NFL). Not because of the penalties (30th in the NFL).
It’s the offenses problem and if only we had Najee Harris, things would click!
Seattle and Pete have been putting the woes on offense since the defense gave up the lead against the patriots.
Pete’s not entirely wrong though. If only we were a better team…we’d be a better team.
That Cleveland stat is brutal btw.
It was a bad interview, a total waste of time.
Carroll just waffled on, talking absolute nonsense, and none of it was pulled up.
Insulting our intelligence and disappointing that nothing said was challenged.
I am not sure of the benefit of the multiple inquiries about injuries.
Do we really need updates
1-Immediately after the game
2-On 710 Monday morning
3-Monday afternoon
4-Wednesday afternoon
5-Friday afternoon
6-pregame on the Schneider show?
There is nothing else to fill column inches with?
I said this in the RW saga. Tracking an unprecedented fallout of two Seahawks bastions would be a great story. Informative, fascinating and even deep background for a book if you’re a reporter interested in writing it one day.
Nope. We got question after question about team COVID protocols at the hotel they’re staying at, how the players are adapting to Zoom meetings, what Pete thinks of Bobby Wagner’s 1)leadership, 2)play, 3)community example, 4)how he is ageless, 5)what is on Bobby’s library shelf, and if Pete is aware that John Rhattigan was in the military.
All the while telling fans desperate to know why this thick smoke was billowing out of VMAC for nearly a whole year, to shut up and quit paying attention when the best reporters in the NFL are saying there is a real problem, and they’re the ones starting those fires.
Right now, we have a front row seat to this franchise acting like an iceberg right in the middle of its slow death roll.
We give this team thousands of dollars and big chunks of our time watching them, talking about them, tracking them, and discussing the future.
We want questions asked. Even if answers are not immediately forthcoming.
We deserve answers. At this point I could care less who starts at Right Tackle next week and why. I don’t need to be told on 5 separate occasions that Jamal Adams tried to get his knee to go and couldn’t. Or get a blow by blow of an injury at the most inconsequential positions on the field (weakside inside LB) multiple times.
Bravo cha!
Would the Seattle sports media-sphere have the same chutzpah
A team starting their 3rd string QB and we prioritize stopping that over focusing on stopping the run and making them one dimensional?? What a brilliant game plan. I am so done with this season.
the phrase that literally makes me want to throw something? every time a game commentator mentions that Pete is ‘a 72 yr old, but he acts like a 22 yr old’…….barf.
The thing for Penix and the seahawks is simple….
Or rather seems simple to anyone not inside that building.
If you draft him ( I am not opposed at all) what concrete steps can and will you do to provide him an at least adequate oline.
Will you ditch the worthless contracts and spend on Guard(s) and a center?
Because if Seattle does what Seattle always does and also drafts penix…it feels fairly foregone that, that will not work.
It’s one thing to dream what if about Allen who is big, strong, and essentially a teams running attack and passer.
Mahomes is the best qb of his/this generation. With respect to Williams. But let’s see it before the coronation. The chiefs have made some strides in protecting their most important asset.
Seattle has had mostly bad oline moves for the whole era. The best player who is tangibly worthwhile may have forever knee problems.
Not that Seattle will be in range for Daniels and who knows about Travis. But the advantage each bring is they can productively move.
My gut is telling me to be worried. The Hawks have a history of drafting players from Michigan. The worry is that they will fall in love with Michigan’s QB and bypass other QB’s.
There’s nothing about McCarthy, though, that makes me think ‘this is someone Schneider will like’ (let alone love)
McCarthy reminds me of Harbaugh in his playing years. He would complete say 12 of 27 throws and the papers would write about his pinpoint passing. As an aside, Harbaugh faced UW as a player in his second start in 1984 and went 17 for 37 with 3 interceptions, as #3 Michigan lost to UW who was then #2.
Great article thanks. I keep thinking at least one team will like him enough to trade up into the end of the first round to take advantage of the fifth year option, but then again he might get pushed back since it’s such a deep QB class. Interested to see how the draft plays out.
Best written analysis I’ve had the pleasure of reading on MPJ this year. I think you’re spot on with strengths and weaknesses. However, I often wonder about how you value leadership, heart, and other intangibles. Speaking specifically about MPJ, the skills you haven’t spent much time on, like progressions, adjusting the blocking at the line, feel for the game. I know a longtime scout in the NFL, and a few former players, to a man they have him valued as a first round pick. Back in happier days Pete always talked about what can the player do and not what can’t he do. I think you hit that right on the money. Time will tell, but I would bet MPJ doesn’t get past 15. Thanks for your thoughtfulness on all things Seahawks.
I don’t think Penix is particularly special in heart or leadership. Maybe he is. He is a special arm talent.
I think it would be pretty to find scores of players down to junior college who play with fire. They just can’t throw like Penix. Or they are unspecial sizes, athletes.
Rob’s talked quite a bit about his reads or progressions.
Teammates love him, and would run through brick walls for him. He has come to the point where he asks the staff to allow him closed-door, players-only discussions with the team, which he leads. I think leadership and heart are both strengths. That is what both staff and players will tell anybody who will listen, including NFL scouts.
I think Rob is right about his biggest downside, at least historically (other than injuries). Under pressure earlier in the season, he would sail throws, often because he was throwing off his back foot. He wasn’t great about throwing under pressure in general. These last few games, though, and especially last night, his ability to move in the pocket, get set and shoot that cannon was much better, as was his willingness to stand in and deliver when a hit was coming. Still, I’d like a better OL for him than the one the Hawks seem to have been able to establish over the last several years…
Right. And I’m not saying he isn’t “special,” in that regard. I also think you can find a lot of players like that. All over. At every level. Of course you want a big time leader. Of course I think there are qbs who aren’t.
He’s a special passer. That we can all see.
I’m truly not trying to say anything bad about him in that regard.
Let it be known. I like Penix just fine. He’s not my top choice. And he’s not my choice at all with Pete and company.
Not being critical, challenging your opinion or being snarky, just curious who your top QB choices in the upcoming draft would be.
Top as in draft order?
Williams
Daniels
Maye
Penix
In that order.
Top for where Seattle is right now….
Daniels
Rattler….draftable
A lot of what you mentioned is due to having the best line in college football.
When he’s faced pressure, it hasn’t gone that well. Same problems from Indiana Penix.
With him, you aren’t just drafting him as Rob said. You are drafting someone that needs a line that has to be above average, someone that needs higher-end weapons, and someone who has played in an offense that does a lot of the grunt work. He’ll have a lot of growing in the NFL.
With the injuries alone, I’m not sure that he has a long career. Too many that can wear an athlete down.
I still think someone jumps up to get him in the first. For Seattle, I want someone to jump ahead of them to get him.
It’s a phenomenal year for the Huskies.
But I can’t remember them having this level if high draftable talent.
I’m literally not taking anything away from Penix. He’s part if that.
Absolutely. As an example, the jaw-dropping deep passes from Russ: you still need someone to make the throw.
As Rob pointed out, that wasn’t necessarily the case last night. To my eyes, he did a very nice job moving around to avoid getting hit/sacked. Makes me wonder if there were injury issues earlier in the year or was it just a mental lull against inferior competition? Not saying you’re wrong, just offering other possibilities.
This might be more of a separate take, and I didn’t watch all of the game, but Texas’s defense was disappointing. I expected more from the line. I wanted to see more from the tackles in the hopes of one really selling me for Seattle to draft.
But then again, best OL in college football and a coach that can scheme plays and players can be the great equalizer.
Maybe sweat gets the Dontari Poe treatment. But I saw a guy who looked like a late second early third.
He’s got a great vibe. I haven’t watched every single snap. But I don’t see a guy who “takes over,” all the time.
I was really anxious about Sweat going into the game. Was concerned that Texas would get consistent pressure and Penix wouldn’t have time to throw deep. Thought the Huskies might get destroyed.
But after watching for a bit and seeing the O line hold up well for the most part, I felt they had a really good chance. Sweat did not have a great game. How much of that is due to what Washington brought in terms of scheme and talent is for those who know more about the game than me to ponder.
Thanks for the great article Rob. Penix had a helluva night. His ball placement was something to see on most throws.
Would love to see him in Seattle but ONLY if Carroll is gone and replaced by a HC with the offensive system/ideas to take advantage of his abilities. Plus, as Peter mentioned above, serious steps to construct an o-line that he’ll need to succeed will have to happen as well. If Carroll stays, a QB like this would be pointless.
Trice was also held with regularity by the Texas OL. He had a helluva game.
I wonder where he goes. Really good player.
Rob, great and fair article! The hyperbole around Penix has gotten out of control, from those saying he will supplant Caleb Williams and be a top 5 pick, or that he’s the best college QB since Trevor Lawrence.
Charlie Campbell from WF has sourced reports on Penix that confirm your articles. He also said teams have told him that JJ McCarthy reminds them of Daniel Jones.
https://walterfootball.com/draft2024recap_15.php
Folks comping a five year player ( in the same system) to a three year player in patrick mahomes.
Folks saying Daniels sucks compared to Penix.
Folks talking about how much they want to give up to move up from #15 to draft Penix.
Robstradamaus was right. This is going to be a loooong draft cycle.
I think my question to you Peter and also Rob is how does Penix’s season compare to Burrow’s final college season.
Actually i just looked up the stats and Burrow’s season doesn’t look real 76% completion ratio 60 tds and 6 picks, Penix is defintely a step down from that, but I do think LSU’s overall talent is a step up from UW’s.
Rob when you evaluated Burrow, did you think it was a sure thing and how does he compare to Penix coming out?
Burrow was on a totally different level. Was one of the best QB’s you’ll ever see entering the league and had an impossibly brilliant season which has transferred to him turning a useless franchise into a SB contender.
I just thought about this last night too. Burrow ran the offense. He clearly had Joe Brady helping him, but it was all him running the show, play in and play out. There wasn’t a system to scheme guys open, Burrow was just dominating.
I never did see Barry Sanders’s last season in college, but I think of Burrow doing something similar: just being unstoppable. He didn’t have the athleticism that Penix has, just extreme control. Burrow also did it out of nowhere, where no one should really be surprised by Penix’s numbers.
Burrow to me had a floor that you could see very clearly. And it was not a low floor.
Robs your guy there. I didn’t really pay too much attention until “the divorce,” was coming for Seattle on QB’s.
I think the huskies are pretty loaded though all over.
60 tds is kind of an uncomfortable number. I do know come draft time I personally had no idea he would be that sharp so soon. One extraordinary college year is hard to judge.
With DK and JSN penix could be great. How do you get penix and an oline?
I’m with BK and Big Mike. Look to the Rams as a landing spot.
Not an uncomfortable number. An incomparable number.
Where we can see him carve the Seahawks into bits 2X a year cuz Petey was happy with Geno but McVay was smart enough to know he needed a QBOTF since Stafford was nearing the end. Yay Pete. 🙁
Rams with their picks again….a different kind of yikes.
Pete will baffle him with his soft zone, no pass rush, drop a DT in coverage looks. If it doesn’t work the first 50 times, we’ll sure as hell try it another 50 – just to make sure.
Already walking back your in-depth evaluation. Typical. It will be worse next week.
Are you commenting at the right site?
Dave clearly had too much Christmas booze
Wyman, is that you?
“Don’t mind me. Just stopping by to sh*t on your porch.”
🤦🏽♂️
What are you on about? I can’t speak for anyone else on this site, but what I really appreciate about Rob’s writing is his willingness to have an opinion and change it with proper evidence. Penix showed stuff last night that he really hasn’t shown all year (like accuracy under pressure), and that means he has that in his locker. Thus, the changed opinion.
That’s called having an open mind and taking in new information. Try it sometime.
wow, having your opinion slowly shift as you get more information? insane
All I could think about was how transcendent last year’s game by Stroud was… and how both QBs were good but not transcendent. I honestly came away liking Ewers more.
Ewers didn’t play better. He looked scared while Penix looked incredibly cool under fire. There was one play where he shifted in the pocket to avoid Sweat and then threw a dime to the receiver. Super impressive. For most of the game, Ewers didn’t show much. But, like Rob said, on that last drive he showed his potential. Several perfect throws — until they got into the red zone. Then he reverted to form, with bad choices and unimpressive throws. Does not appear ready for prime time. Not sure Sark is the guy who gets him there.
Adam Shefter rocking Michigan gear talking about Harbaugh going back to the NFL onthe Pat McCafee show.
Keep those distractions coming please.
Makes sense though. With his team facing possible sanctions and the NFL, where he’s had success, beckoning with its deep pockets. Seems like the kind of guy who goes. I hope DeBoer chooses to make a career at Washington, as it’s inevitable elite programs will make a play for him. I’m not worried about the NFL for him. Just other college programs. I hope he likes being with a program solid enough to compete on the biggest stages but not under the biggest or hottest lights.
Great piece! Thanks!
PS – you mentioned that Quinn Ewers has a super quick release. How is Penix’s release in comparison?
A lot more elongated. Doesn’t have to be a big issue. Ewers’ whips the ball out remarkably.
There are times when Penix does that too. Not consistently but he appears to have the capacity. Touch, accuracy and velocity. Knows when to throw darts and when to take something off. Love the fades.
I’m not saying he’ll make it in the NFL. I have no idea. I don’t know how anyone projects college quarterbacks in the NFL, as the game is so different there. One weakness that’s easily managed at the college level can be a guy’s undoing at the next level.
FYI — we’ve had to postpone tonight’s stream until tomorrow, same time (2pm PT)
Damn. I was ready for it! Jeff and you together is always a great listen.
Tomorrow there’s a chance I may be able to catch it live.
Despite Penix managing to stay healthy the past 2 years, his health is still a concern. He is a gifted thrower that deserves and early round ground (1-3). That TD in between 2 defenders was an NFL type throw especially with the anticipation on that throw.
On the other hand:
Ewers is surprisingly getting a lot of criticism for last night. He wasn’t great but was solid. This loss will make him wanna return. However, you’re hearing a lot of chatter about arch manning being the starter. One article said Arch should start even if Ewers returns. Ewers is an another gifted thrower who played better than most people think all season. It’s going to be interesting to see what the Ewers and Arch situation turns into if Ewers returns. Media is itching to see Arch.
Completely baffled why Ewers is getting grief.
Texas were crap, the play-calling was crap and they were lucky to have a shot at the end. Without Ewers they wouldn’t have had a sniff at capitalising. That play-call on 1st down with 15 seconds to go summed it up. Sark had a mare.
First there’s the Manning effect.
Second. I think people wanted more pop from him. I’m not blaming him.
He’s got a BIG decision. If it’s anything rocky next year old bark for sark is probably going to have to play manning. Them Ewers might need to transfer.
So stay, transfer now ( I think he should) or declare?
How about if Ewers transfers to UW?
UW brought in Will Rogers from Miss St. Second all time passer (yards) in the SEC.
When Ewers took that hit to the head, Manning was raring to get in. Clearly, he’s drawn to the largest stages under the hottest lights. Whether he’ll turn out to be as good as his billing remains to be seen.
As for Ewers, I wasn’t impressed because for most of the game he looked tight and scared. He clearly has the capacity to make great throws. Has some mobility but not anything close to elite. Really not sure about his decision making and I don’t think that can be blamed on the play calling. He’s got a great run game which should open up passing lanes and, at least from what we saw last night, he did not impress until those three throws coming down the sideline on the last drive before choking in the red zone. I’d take Nix over him in a heartbeat and I’m not sure Bo goes before day three.
Also the dropped passes early in the game for Texas.
It’s a bit of a problem staying on when you have a Manning nipping at your heels. If Ewers wants to play he might do better in the portal going to a team like…… Michigan. LOL
Hopefully it won’t jinx anything but totally agree on JJ Mcarthy being off my draft wish board. It is baffling seeing him in first round mocks. He doesn’t seem like a good passer in anyway. Athletic but I would be shocked if he bacame anything good in the NFL.
He did a little better than I expected and completed some decent passes downfield. He’s a heck of a runner. I still don’t want him.
The arm talent sure is impressive, but I was most impressed by his demeanor and control of the game last night. He looked like a pro QB playing in a college game. He seemed to be prepared for everything Texas threw at him and calmly executed the gameplan.
Like many of you, I couldn’t help but think “man, it sure would be fun to watch Seattle run this offense every week.”
Have the Seahawks ruined Woolen?
I marveled at his toughness in camp & preseason last year in being the outside corner on run plays, willing to lower his shoulder and take on anyone in the run and actually win the engagement. Combine that with his pure skill/size combo and his playmaking ability, you had a limitless corner prospect who just needed to get more familiar with the NFL game.
This year he is blowing assignments with alarming regularity and has gone completely flaccid on tackling and run support.
I am certain there is a degree of sophomore slump but this is something else.
Serious question: is it the Adams.Diggs influence?
It can’t be helping.
It feels like much of the defense is checked out as a whole but those two are certainly a big part of it. Carroll’s motivational techniques just aren’t sticking anymore.
I’ve assumed he’s banged up. Not playing tough like last year. Way more tentative. Slower too.
Not Woolen, but Witherspoon. Eat this!
https://youtu.be/kuhKTU6bsPQ?si=lsEH0aacDpWk48kW
same but not as severe with Bryant
This makes me recall the comments by Tre Flowers when he left, complained about the soft zone scheme. Perhaps Woolen, Bryant and the other young guys don’t feel their skill sets are being fully utilized and this regression, or lack of effort, is some sort of covert mutiny hoping to move one to a better coached team.
Interesting thought. Kind of quiet quitting because they don’t like their boss.
Even if it isn’t a mutiny and just the insidious creep of having no faith in the scheme (coach) it’s manifesting in the same way. Guys aren’t bought in and it shows.
Hard to blame them to be honest. I too have no faith in the scheme (coach).
Underperforming vets playing over young guys for years. Kick-step, soft zone, bend-don’t-break defense for over a decade that is less effective every year. Openly dismiss the coach in the media (DK/JA) and see no consequence. The list is long and depressing, but if we can see it – so can the players.
couldn’t agree more about the slippage in his play. it’s been one of the bigger disappointments of the season.
But the player needs to take some responsibility for his play though, no? I’m very willing to blame Pete for a lot of things – but he’s not telling guys not to tackle.
Thanks Rob. You’re very kind to the Husky fans. It’s rare for you to deal with the overlapping fanbases so much.
We’ll see how Penix does against Michigan. R2 for him feels right at the moment. I can’t see him going before Williams or Daniels. I haven’t watched Maye, but everyone likes him so that means Penix might be QB 4 for some teams.
I’m going to go back to something I’ve said before. The Seahawks interior offensive line sucks. They will not be able to protect Penix. Best to find a quarterback that can scramble and throw on the run. Because if this line doesn’t improve the quarterback will be running for their lives.
Alaska, with respect, there hasn’t been a week since I started this blog that you didn’t pin the problems on the O-line.
There are three teams in the league with a great line. You’ve got to work around it. Shanahan and McVay certainly do. It’s life in the NFL.
Like most people I definitely see myself inching closer to the Draft Penix bandwagon after last night, but his game when he is pressured has to be the first or second concern with him. What about getting Penix early and then getting his center right after? Is it a realistic possibility? Would it be a bad choice? No matter how the players fall in April my wish list has QB first, and center second. And the Huskies are fielding two players who can fill those roles.
For me, it depends on value. Every draft pick is a gamble. The further a guy drops in the draft, the more it makes sense to go for a guy with a high ceiling and low floor. Penix is a great example of that. So much to like — arm talent and intangibles — and yet one can’t help but be skeptical.
But then I tend to be skeptical. Didn’t foresee Stroud showing anything close to what he’s done so far. Thought Young would transition most easily to the NFL. Did not see Richardson getting drafted at 4. Thought more like 20. Also didn’t see him showing the flashes we saw this year.
Can anyone explain to me why JJ Mcarthy is being talked about as a first 3 round QB? I’ve watched him a few times now and I can’t understand what the intrigue is with him. It almost feels like draft guys are just saying his name in the top 5 of the class to be different
He plays for a blue-blood that is in the playoffs.
It’s a lazy take. Guys don’t want to do the work and watch all of that tape, so they go with easy, flashy choices: best teams, most popular teams, or gaudy stats.
I think it’s based on potential. The arm and the mobility. Problem is Michigan isn’t designed for an aggressive passing game so we’ve not seen much of it. I see him as a huge wildcard. I could see him potentially doing well in the NFL but how can one make a smart guess when he’s had few opportunities to really lead an offense.
Personally, if I were in charge of a team, I wouldn’t draft him unless he slipped to the third round.
My fear…
Washington getting to the National Championship — and potentially winning it — is going to ensure there is nowhere near the necessary level of debate about the Seahawks over the next seven days
The genie is already out of the bottle there, methinks. Having UW in the title game will pose an endless string of content, win or lose. The Seahawks and Mariners are thrilled not to be chastised as heavily for their respective failings over the course of the next 2-3 weeks.
Tbh, there is a certain breed of M’s fans that will keep bitching around firing Suarez, Hernandez and trading Kelenic. Short of signing a couple of 30m/y bums, they won’t accept any other solution.
You just cannot compare this to the Seahawks situation, were most of the fanbase has a feel good with gran’dad Pete mentality.
I’m not sure.
Look at the comments on Twitter every single time the Seahawks post something.
Quandre Diggs posted a simple message Sunday after the game and every single comment below is trying to run him out of town.
https://twitter.com/qdiggs6/status/1741632843141599581
I’m not sure the fish stink smell can be ignored. It is even possible that UW National Championship would just serve to highlight what having a coach and players with a fresh approach can bring.
Rob: The comments and discussion that the Seahawks encounter may be about how nice it is to have a real competitor in Seattle. In your article, you mentioned a “change in coaching philosophy” will be needed for the Seahawks to draft Penix. A change in coaching philosophy will never happen with Pete Carroll as head coach. Penix sure does throw a pretty deep ball. It’s eye popping.
Yep, it needs Pete to go — and it’s time
Now it has to be as the next Super Bowl winning HC of the Seahawks.
Sure there’d be some hard feelings in Montlake for poaching him, but c’mon man.
IIRC- Don James was a successful head coach at Kent State before coming to UW and he turned out pretty well. DeBoer looks like he is a very consistent winner and if he has a good year next year, he’ll be well on his way to great coach status.
I don’t see his skills translating to the NFL and I think he’d hate it. He inspires young men of high character. Prima donnas are not tolerated. Good luck with the in the NFL.
While some of that may be true the more salient point you made above is that in college, broadly, you get big rosters and you pick who you want.
Of course NIL, etc changes that. Bit college has almost always been a bit of an arms race between the have’s and the have not.
Saw some goofy Brady Quinn tweet about Deboer and Penix should go to the pros together. While not impossible the variables necessary to pulling that off are pretty astounding. Is that team going to draft Odunze and that oline as well?
Nice analysis of Penix.
I was impressed by his performance last night. As you noted, it’s not quite on the level as Stroud, but it’s in the same vein.
Still not my favorite prospect, especially for the current coaching crew. But well done nonetheless.
Also liked Fautanu, all the WRs + Westover, Trice and Asa Turner.
Is Turner worth a Day 3 pick?
Looking forward to seeing more of Byron Murphy at Senior Bowl.
Great write up.
For me, however, if the Pete Carroll Regime (PCR) is doing the drafting and developing of any new QB, regardless of who it is, I’ll have a difficult time investing the necessary amount of give-a-shit required to fully engage the process with a positive outlook. I’m on the verge of considering any further expenditures of draft capital made by the PCR, including JS, as wasted. The next regime, unless it’s led by Tater and/or Nate, seems unlikely to value so highly the assets acquired and treasured by the PCR.
Bobby Slowik ’24 – Think it. Be it. We can do it.
I agree 100%. As much as I want the Hawks to draft their next QB, I don’t want (maybe ‘trust’ is a better word) PC or his staff to draft or develop him.
Just saw this, thought it might be interesting to Share:
The #Seahawks defense since Week 9:
32nd in EPA/play
32nd in success rate
32nd in rush/EPA
32nd in rush success rate
29th in dropback/EPA
24th in dropback success rate
The WORST part about this is in the first 5 games we were the 5th best in run defense. Now we are the WORST in the #NFL
Big Yikes.
As we keep saying…
It’s time for change
The Seahawks defense since the Baltimore Ravens debacle:
29th in points allowed (244)
30th in opponent completion percentage (67.5%)
30th in yards allowed per offensive play (5.92)
T-25th in sacks (20)
T-24th in takeaways (9)
29th in touchdowns allowed (28)
30th in rate of defensive drives ending in a score (45.8%)
28th in rate of punts forced (32.3%)
32nd in rushing first downs allowed (89, a cool 12 more than the next worst team)
32nd in rushing yards allowed after contact (3.1)
31st in third-down conversion rate allowed (48.2%)
32nd in average time of possession (3:09)
FIRE THE COACHING STAFF!
Rob you’ve made me more aware of QB throwing mechanics and/or style, and the difference between Ewers and Penix is definitely noticeable. Ewers’ quick flick is impressive. Penix is awesome too but he does seem to use his whole body to throw.
Did you guys see during the broadcast the snapshot of Ewers at his media table, alone, while Arch Manning was being swarmed? Is the whole ‘Manning or Ewers’ enough to push him to declare?
I think there’s a chance Ewers will still turn pro — we should find out soon
Penix is a head-scratcher for me – – over the course of the year, he threw some really ugly, inaccurate throws. so far off the mark, that I almost didn’t get it – I equated it to a basketball player swishing several long 3’s in a row and making you a believer, only to clank one so badly, that you no longer know if he’s a good shooter at all. I do agree that his athleticism is better than I initially thought – but not sure I want him to be the guy we hitch our wagon to.
There were some times he looked like J.J. McCarthy yesterday.
Pete Carroll’s commitment to “always compete” is as much of a playing mantra as it is a business mantra, it sounds postive and uplifting (good vibes bruh) to most fans who casually enjoy the NFL and it’s easily bought into; especially in the dreary PNW. As a result of this strategy Pete has become a beacon of hope for the Seahawks fanbase (life will never be good again without Pete :(… ). This is what Pete has banked on and what has also allowed him to coast through season after season, mostly unchecked, as a coach who has mastered producing mediocre results, but whom also convinces the average fans that, “we’re so close,” and that they were, “one play away,” which is positive and uplifting.
Therefore, average fans just roll with Pete and his business plan, because his sales pitch makes them feel good.
However, once a person realizes this is the case, and the veils begin to slowly fall to the ground, only then do they see the actual man behind the curtain, and they are confronted with the startling truth that Pete is not a football mastermind, but just a great salesman.
My sense is he’s a good fit for Seattle and Northwest culture, which values manners and transmitting the right vibe over any sort of stringent analysis and considers analytical discussion downright rude. This is a very laid back and accepting place unless you display an obvious opinion, particularly if it’s in any way “negative”, whatever that means, and particularly if one gives voice to it more than once.
Pete wouldn’t have survived this long in lots of other places. We saw how he went over in Boston and New York. Philly would be no better. Those are towns where the press wouldn’t accept gaslighting coach speak. He’d be asking tough questions again and again. The papers would compete to write “WTF is up with this guy?” articles.
This was an interesting watch about Michigan defeating Alabama, and the Harbaugh connection.
https://youtu.be/PNeGX0-tMgY?si=9kAlC8-Q4WU6r8mZ
At about 2:20 Joel Klatt talks about Jim Harbaugh going to John looking for solutions with his defense at Michigan. The part about finding the right coach to run the Michigan defense and the connection to what the Ravens are running pretty interesting.
I usually agree with most on the site with regards to the Seahawks and most college players. However, I am really struggling with the seeming dismissal/slight of Penix and his QB play. Everything is “yah but” comments. Example is like “he is super accurate with his deep throws ‘yah but’ his delivery is not flick of the wrist quick like Ewers.” Or sure he drops the ball into a bucket with the defenders draped all over the receiver ‘yah but’ couple of throws Westover had to make an acrobatic catches. The comment that Penix was not a leader about made me spit out my coffee!
Hugh Millen was on Furness’s show today on KJR today and broke Penix down. I know Millen went to UW, but it is a good listen.
There’s a 3500 word article, MCOHAWK, breaking down everything — most of it positive.
If there are a couple of questions in the comments section, is that really a problem? Or is only 100% praise acceptable?
As someone who is not a Husky fan but is pulling for them to beat Michigan you called it this draft cycle. The synchronicity of the Dawgs having the most viable pro qb this century and being located appx. 8 miles from Lumen is going to be rough.
Penix has a ‘baller’ arm. I mean its one of the best in the draft. He’s had a very good almost great year. The huskies have had a fantastic year. Whether Penix suffered from mystery ailments or not he actually had some dud games this season.
Going back to 2012 when it was time for Seattle to finally draft a qb no one got upset if people thought RG3 was to slim and reckless. Or Wilsin was too short for the NFL. Because I believe the venn diagram of Baylor, Wisconsin fans and Seahawks fans on a very unique blog is maybe non-existent.
If Penix played for a team anywhere else in the country following outward in a circular pattern from lake Washington I feel like the dialog would change with distance.
We can look no further than this very blog. Whether it’s that people don’t think we can draft any of them or they simply don’t like them as players…it’s rare to see conversation about Maye or Daniels.
Yet. On other hawks centric places I see people commenting that we should “move mountains,” to draft Penix. That “please let him stay in Seattle ( crying emoji).” Comments that I never see about and I mean the definition here: literally any other top qb.
———-
Had a dialog with someone in a hawks site about how I’d take Travis in the fourth even with injury as long as it’s just bone break and not ligament as well.
First comment back to me was ” nah, he sucks. Look at the pro talent he has around him.”
I like Penix. Quite a bit. I’m also positive that if the Huskies big name players were playing for FSU that same commenter would have said the same comment to me about ” look at all the pro talent he has out there in Florida.”
This is the problem as we’ve moved from a culture of reading to a culture of reacting.
No one, including myself, said he wasn’t a leader.
You just chose to take it that way.
What was said is that I don’t think he is special in that regard. Special synonym: unique.
I stand by that.
Just in this draft alone: penix, daniels, Jordan Travis all players you can easily find comments from teammates and coaches about their leadership.
Before Will Howard transferred there’s video of his TE blasting the media to their face about the kind of player he is.
Rattler’s youth is going to be dissected ad nauseum this draft. People are going to talk about this one time he did this one thing…but completely chuck out that his coach who was his OC when crap got weird and hard at Oklahoma picked him to be his starting qb through all that noise and chaos.
I’m…sorry? that you read this terrific article and came away offended that it didn’t tout Penix as the sure-fire, #1 overall pick that will supplant Tom Brady as the greatest of all time?
He’s known as a leader. Clear back since Indiana. Guess what? It is a position known for leadership. The guys that make it are usually good to great leaders. No one has argued that. Great kid and great talent. With issues that you have to take into account. For me, the issues knock him down behind a few other guys.
Be careful wearing purple-colored glasses.
Purple colored glasses “sigh”. My comment is based on months of commentary on this site in regards to Penix VS other top QBs in this draft. Prime example is Caleb Williams can essentially shit the bed and cry on the sidelines showing very little leadership, yet Penix who convinced his team to follow him back for another year is the one who is not a “special” leader. I mostly agree with the blog, but when you visually see Ewers and Penix on the field in the same game and some come on here and say they were more impressed by Ewers just boggles my mind!
Nobody has said that.
You don’t get to just make stuff up
Very busy these days, but I gotta pop in and say great read. I worry Penix is going to be one of those players who will beat up on bad teams, but soon as he faces a pass rush will fold.
Hey. Wrap it up. Where’s the jokes I’ve come to chuckle at…
Thanks Geoff
I could see Penix as a Viking. Purple IS his color after all.
I’ve been a defender of Coach Carroll for a long time. I wrote some very favorable articles about him on Seahawk Addicks during his first couple of years. But it does appear that the rest of the league has caught up and passed him by. The team is mired in middle of the pack status. With a new QB should come a new coach. It’s time, Pete.
Thanks Rob for your thoughts on Penix. I’d love to have him, but if he is gone, what are your thoughts on Bo Nix or Sanders from Colorado if Penix is gone? Anyone else besides Rattler?
I see them ranked close to Penix on draft websites.
Thanks and Go Hawks!
P.S. If Harbaugh comes to the nil, would you like him in Seattle? I think he’s going to win wherever he goes!
Sanders is returning to Colorado
Nix — I just find him thoroughly unexciting. A system QB who was never sacked. In round three I’m down as a shot to nothing. But that’s it.
Harbaugh — he’s a winner and transforms every program he takes over but I don’t see him in Seattle
If they don’t take a QB early, and Nix is available with their R3 pick, I’ll be frustrated if they don’t take a chance.
It’s a long 4 months till draft weekend, and my lord almighty if Seattle don’t draft a QB this year.
My best Seahawks buddy went to the game Sunday and aside being disgusted by the amount of stealer fans in the stands, he mentioned that most everyone around him were saying it’s time for Carroll to go. We’re seeing a lot of that online as well as from what I’ve read here, talk shows too. I think to see the kind of pathetic effort we saw from the D in a must win game has really opened a lot of fans’ eyes to just how bad it’s become (all those stats above reflect that don’t they?).
All that said, I have a feeling this game Sunday is going to determine at least next year for the franchise. Another effort like we saw Sunday makes me feel like Carroll (finally) steps down. I think he’ll have had enough of the Diggs of the world. If on the other hand,if they unexpectedly step up and give a great effort and win somewhat handily, he’ll feel like and say the franchise is back on track and let’s get after it next year (or in the playoff game if GB loses). Sadly, the Petehawk fans will come out of the woodwork in force saying the same thing and we’ll be relegated to another season next year like this one.
I’ve said before and I still believe Jody is loathe to pay him to not coach/run the franchise. I still believe the only way he’s gone is if he chooses to be gone. If you want a new direction, I suggest you root for the same old stale, poor effort and lack of caring from the defense this Sunday. I believe it to be the only hope that there will be meaningful change next season. The good news is that the playoffs were on the line last week and we all saw the kind of effort they put out so it would logically follow we’ll see the same this week, especially once they tire of chasing Murray around by the middle of the 2nd quarter.
The worm is even starting to turn with some media. Tim Booth’s column this morning:
The Seahawks are without question a heavily flawed team.The regression of their defense throughout the season and the inconsistencies on offense have provided enough evidence of their shortcomings.
What the loss to Pittsburgh brought into question was the competitive desire of this group. Seattle had won 2 straight to gain control of its playoff path and then gave it all away over 60 minutes.
Even if Seattle beats Arizona and gets the help it needs form Chicago, there is little reason to believe that a playoff trip will be any different than it was a year ago when the Seahawks squeaked in with help from other teams and then were blown out by San Francisco inn the wild card round.
Welcome to the reality we’ve seen for some time Tim. Good to see it in print for sure though.
If you go to 710’s YouTube ( I’ve seen the Big Mike handle there and always give you the old thumbs up) during his weekly bulls*** session where he and the boys pal around it’s nearly a wall of folks calling for him to go.
The Petehawk faithful of course are still in there defending how we ‘controlled the run’ in the second half. But they are very few and far between.
It’s arguably the most lost sports presser I’ve witnessed in a while.
I love that “controlled the run in the second half” argument. I mean, sure, they allowed far less yards rushing in the second half, but balanced that by letting Rudolph almost match his career high in passing yards.
1. Pete was due one. Had a great run against backups this year so made sense Rudolph would pull out the classic “backup plays like a starter,” style game.
2. After the niners loss in the playoffs I kind of lost my mind when folks were talking about “for a half we nearly had them.” I can’t understand how as a fan you can praise nearly 50 yards in a half ( which actually isn’t that great as it is) after getting steam rolled for the first half.
I don’t think Pete’s that capricious, especially about a life changing decision. I don’t think he’ll stay if they win one more game.
I’m not saying he’s definitely going. I’ve no idea. I’m merely saying I think the decision has been made, and it whatever that decision is, it won’t change based on a win vs the Cardinals.
The only way I see the outcome of this season materially altering what Carroll decides to do is a deep playoff run. And that just ain’t happening this year.
I remember there was a hit in the first Oregan matchup that made Penix look a tad hurt. There were rumors of an abdominal injury that was persisting and would make a lot more sense as to his play level from Oregon and before and after. Then getting nearly a month off maybe helped him a bit. We likely wont know and probably is best for Penix if that stays under wraps with already known injury concerns especially if it was just a play through it type injury (even if it lowers you to 85% or so).
In the end I would not be surprised if we hear about this type of thing later.
I’m not buying any of this injury speculation or excuse making though — he was still making the big plays downfield. You aren’t overthrowing, throwing to areas rather than with placement because of injury. I’d buy this if suddenly the deep balls fluttered or he wasn’t able to make the big plays. All of that stuff remained, he just suddenly became erratic and felt like he was always looking for the big play.
It is what it is — over a sustained period of time, his play dipped. I think we should acknowledge that, while also acknowledging he played very well against Texas.
Geno Smith is my pro comp for Penix and we’ve seen that from him too.
I think some of his red flags still showed up during that period, so I’m not going to chalk it up to him playing hurt.
If he lost his deep ball and some it’s accuracy, then it might be an idea, but otherwise he had a stretch where defensive pressure was finally getting to him and he didn’t do as well.
Penix had a great game. Anyone else perplexed over TX last 4 plays? The last pass by Ewers was off. Should have been right to the pylon and it would have been a TD.
I’ve seen people say that about the last throw but from all-22 it wasn’t as obvious as people say to just throw to the pylon. Easy enough to say that watching on a couch at home.
but I’m an expert on my couch!
I think its pretty telling that I read that whole story and it didn’t occur to me how long it was. I really wanted to know what you thought about Penix and Ewers’ play. Thanks for the thoughtful insight.
I didn’t think Ewers moved the needle with his play in the Sugar bowl. No doubt many will urge him to return, yet others sounds as if they think he’ll willingly make way fo Arch Manning and enter the transfer portal. The second doesn’t make much sense to me. Arch is an unproven quantity. It seems more likely he would be the one transferring if Ewers returns the me.
The other big Texas name that didn’t impress in the game was Worthy. But, he’s officially declared for the draft anyhow.
Oh, and if you’re not feeling nauseous already, here’s one of Pittsburgh’s rushing TDs against the Hawks. Just look at how many Seahawks give up on the play. Yuk!
https://twitter.com/BudDupreeFan/status/1741978894712942610/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1741978894712942610¤tTweetUser=BudDupreeFan
What I will say about Ewers is that he is a different cat. He isn’t going to balk about the threat of someone else (even if it is a Manning). I also don’t think that Manning is going to transfer just because he isn’t going to start. Kid doesn’t need the NIL and knows the value of doing EVERYHTING possible to succeed: sit and learn and not just rush to be on the field.
Ewers also stated that he wanted to go back specifically to get better. And I believe him. I guess he mentioned knowing the success rate of guys that started under 25 college games compared to guys that were over that mark. He really knows what he needs to do and I always had a feeling that he wants to improve first and foremost.
https://twitter.com/RyanKoenigsberg/status/1742254170382705075
RK
@RyanKoenigsberg
Michael Penix Jr. as a righty will completely change how you view his throwing motion
*****
Fun. But no it doesn’t completely change anything for me.
Wish I hadn’t seen that first thing this morning. I spent a few mins racking my brain trying to remember if he threw a pass with his right hand in the Sugar Bowl before noticing the inverted score chyron
I disagree. It completely changed how I thought of his motion because…he is throwing…with his right hand instead…?
I’m grasping for straws. I’m trying to to prepare tax forms.
Oddly, he looks more powerful in stance and more compact in release to me. It still has a little sidearm to it when he loads his arm to throw. The stance made me think of Warren Moon. Strange…
Great article.
“All I ask is you read the whole thing before commenting” should be a requirement for every comment!
Rob, What do you think of Cam Ward?
I think he’s a solid mid-round shot for a team. I have him graded R4.
As a husky hater and a Coug, I think Rob is right on re: Penix and Ward. Penix is inconsistent and benefited by great receivers and a great line and a coach who schemed for his strengths.
Ward has great potential but needs to mature in his decision -making, holding onto the ball, and his ‘grittiness”: leadership and ‘whatever it takes” mindset.
Ward had some real head scratching moments this year that cost the Cougs a couple games and a bowl game./
Rob,
Regarding Ewers,
How high would a team have to indicate to him that they will take him in the first round, if available, for him to decide to declare instead of going back to college and having to transfer for his final year?
If Schneider liked him would their indication to him that he is one of 2/3 quarterbacks that they are planning on taking at #16 be enough to convince him to declare knowing that Daniels and Williams will probably be gone and that he would not last past 16?
Great write up on Penix.
Would be an interesting year if they drafted him and hired DeBoer.
I think he’d need to hear first round buzz
And even then, it’s whether he thinks another year can get him into ‘high first round range’
Good news, bad news for the two Will Howard fans on this site.
Good news…Espn is reporting he is still undecided about declaring.
Bad news….he’s apparently visited Miami, along with USC, and now Ohio state. That Miami visit seems like a sure fire way to end your passing career and start your coaching career….somewhere else.
Ohio State and USC would be very interesting for him… Miami 🤮
Saw on a YouTube video a OSU fan mentioned him visiting. IDK why I thought he had already set USC.
Either school could be the injection of over the top offense to help him (kind of like Hurts).
Miami…no. I think too much of the kid to want to put him through that career suicide.
Just putting it out in the universe: come to Iowa. We are literally the worst offense EVER. Save us. Please.
Rob, how much of the Michael Penix perception around here change if he didn’t go to UW? If this was the Houston Cougars, would the same hype accompany him?
I also thought it was interesting that Charlie Campbell reported that teams have concerns about the simplicity of UW’s offense, he struggles when teams drop 7 or 8 into coverage, and that he struggled to make reads, choosing to just throw the ball to spots rather than going through progressions.
I think it has an impact sure, in terms of fans clamouring for the ‘homegrown’ player. But I also think any QB leading a non-typical contender to the National Championship game would raise awareness and intrigue
Charlie Campbell’s words are legit on this — it is what it is. It’s why I wanted to write an extensive review on Penix with the pro’s and con’s
Penix is fascinating. A lot to like. A couple concerns but they are big concerns.
I’m not sure if you all are familiar with Tge Franchise Guy on YouTube, but I’ve found him to be pretty good/levelheaded with his takes. He did a First Look on Penix in the first Oregon game and really highlighted Penix’ lack of/slow processing. Highlighted a few plays where he is flat out just staring down the first read on long developing plays. It was interesting and worth a watch. It wasn’t all negative but it was the first of his “first looks” where he showed a lot of serious concern about that part of his gane.
I think Penix and Geno are EERILY similar. Great arms, pretty ball, *can be* insanely accurate on tough throws, BUT mired by inconsistency, which leads me to my big concern with Penix. I think he’s a very script-dependent QB meaning when the pregame plan is money; he’s money (like Geno). Unfortunately, when the script is off; so is the QB…and in fairness, as are most QBs. It’s the only way I can explain how guys can look great one week and wildly off the next. It’s not that QBs can’t have bad games, but we see very wild swings with these two which in my mind says that they are extremely dependent upon the OC putting together a great script. If it’s less than great; you see the holes and again, the swings become rather dramatic in their performance. The other thing I greatly worry about are his mechanics. He’s a full effort thrower with a really weird base and motion – it’s amazing he’s had any consistency throwing the ball. Why does this matter? Spacing dramatically reduces in the NFL. We aren’t just talking separation but space in the pocket. I do worry how little pressure he’s faced and how he will respond to both dramatically more pressures + significantly reduced spacing in the pocket.
I’d run the card in for Penix in Round 2. I’m not sure I’d be excited in Round 1.
Hey, Seattle’s moved up to #15 pick! Go Cards. We want a top 10 pick and regime change.
I really like penix, i just think he’s not a fit in seattle because of the fact that Geno is the least of Seattle’s problems. I don’t think that Geno is a game changing QB, but i think that the defense is so terrible, even having a mahomes level QB wouldn’t put you on a path to winning a championship. The defense routinely is on the field for 6-8 minute drives, even mahomes can’t win you games if he’s never on the field because the defense can’t get off.
If penix goes to a team such as the Rams, Vikings, Pittsbugh, etc i think he can be really successful. We focus so much on the fact that he has a great o-line, weapons, coaching etc which are all valid points, but we’ve seen plenty of guys have those same things and not be successful.
Success in the NFL is a combination of things, but usually it’s down to coaching, a good coach will get the most out of his players, a bad one will not. I still maintain i think Jake Locker COULD have been a more successful player had he not gotten paired with a miserable SOB of a coach, both times. Sometimes you just get unlucky in who you’re drafted / coached by, and in the NFL players often can’t wait out the coaching, they don’t perform they’re gone, generally faster than the coaches are.
Geno might not be the biggest issue, but having no QBOTF is the team’s biggest problem. I’m sorry, you just don’t compete without one. A legit difference maker. And having Mahomes on this team with these weapons would at least make the team a contender.
Anymore, you need a coach and a quarterback to win it all and also stay a competitor. I’ve heard people argue about building up the rest of the team, the trenches first, etc. You still are not doing anything without a difference making qb. Seattle has pushed this problem off for so long and now are reaping the situation.
Has to be done. And not a mid or late round “dart board throw” pick.
New Orleans had a QB for 15 years and won 1 superbowl. Indianapolis had arguably the greatest QB ever and won 1 superbowl, Greenbay had an exceptional QB for 15 years and won 1 superbowl. The QBOTF doesn’t matter if you can’t win games in the here and now. QBOTF is also relative, what it is to Carroll it might not be to Stefanski or Mcvay. Say you draft a guy he’s good / decent, but the team is a failure again and the new staff that comes in thinks he’s not the guy and ships him off. Now what? back to finding QBOTF again.
I don’t disagree that they’ve put this off for too long, but arbitrarily stating that it’s not a “mid or late round dart throw” type guy is the only way is also wrong. The hit rate on Qbs in the First round is not particularly great, so if you draft a qb you HOPE can do anything, and then he doesn’t then what? You as a staff and GM are fired, and the next group may evaluate that guy differently, then he’s out too.
There are very few generational talents in the draft, Rob was high on Mahomes, but it’s not like he was viewed around the league as a surefire guy, he went 10th. Watson went 12th and Trubisky went 3rd. If mahomes ends up in Jacksonville is he the same guy? Probably not, coaching matters, i just dont’ think we have a staff to maximize the talent, so if Carroll is around another year (probably shouldn’t be) is he going to go with a guy who probably won’t help him win now, or a defensive player to win games now. I think we know the answer.
How does the success in the first round quarterback compare to any other round? That is where you have the best chance. You want to keep building the roster, pick the game manager from Michigan, and roll with Geno, hoping everything pans out? Or try to get a difference maker who can lead the team for years and create an actual window to win?
The Saints, Colts, and Packers were always right there. They were always actual competitors for a Super Bowl. Know why? Their quarterbacks. That can and did make up for holes in the roster. And if you draft a guy that is good/decent, that isn’t good enough and you try again. Just how it is, unless you want to wait for the rest of the team to be great to historic. See what happens first and more often.
QBOTF is a plan. It is finding an elite, blue chip, play maker than can take over a game and win in. That is what is missing. That is what you have to have in today’s league to be serious.
Didn’t say anything about generational. Generational has that meaning for a reason. Chiefs and Texans did their homework and took their guy. It panned out. Smart teams can do it better. Trubisky was something that everyone saw coming except for one GM and coac. Mahomes was a generational talent who went to a HOF coach. Same could be said of Josh Allen. Would he be better if Andy Reid was his coach?
I don’t care if our staff can or can’t do something. I don’t care if Carroll thinks he is a defensive player away. That doesn’t make his decisions correct. Nothing lately has made his choices correct. You cannot play it safe in the NFL.
Whos to say that the QB you take is any better than Geno, the metrics say Geno is a top 10/12 QB, the Qbs above him are all in the playoffs with a chance. I’d be in line with you if the defense were even CLOSE, it’s not, it’s historically bad. The defense is so bad it costs them 2-3 possessions a game, give Geno 2-3 more a game, how many do they win? The offense literally has to be PERFECT to win, one mistake and the defense loses the game.
You’ve said that smart teams do it better, ok well, where has the team proven it’s smart enough to warrant that. If it’s gonna be the same coaching staff, then yes you punt on QBOTF, this staff isn’t going to maximize a young QB, because they can’t maximize the one they have.
So if you get a new staff, then yes i’m all in on QBOTF, without that change though, you might as well try and fix the defense.
John has proven enough the last two drafts and through his years of evaluating quarterbacks. He’s made the right picks on defense as well. Our head coach just can’t do what he is supposed to be terrific at. We have almost put every resource into the defense that we can. No change. Since then, quarterback has gotten worse. Get a qb and the biggest problem is solved. Or at least make the attempt.
And if you look at the qb’s in front of Geno, they are what we are looking for: young and difference makers. Guys leading their teams and able to will them into wins. Geno is the start of the drop-off. It’s not hard to see some of these guys in this draft being better than Geno, and soon.
If they pass on an early quarterback, it’s a fail for me. Partially because they refuse to address the position, but just as much because they have been going defense early. They have literally been doing what you are suggesting. Look where we are.
Your point might be that with this staff, there is no point either way. Fully get that. I honestly expect them to get someone in round 3, 4, 5 if at all because Pete thinks that he and Geno can do it! But we can’t keep muddling along this way and wasting being in striking distance for “our guy.” And also wasting these last two draft classes anymore than we already have.
No matter what, I think we both agree that a new coach is a must. Pete ain’t doing anything with any version of our team. First round picks have already been…ineffective…with him in charge.
Stick a fork in me. I’m so done
I don’t even care if it is lip service. Too worn out for any chance he’s serious.
It’s lip service but annoying lip service
And these aren’t the questions needing to be asked
I really hope this is the end of the regime, because it’s not even worth getting up for at this point. Same questions, same answers, same ol BS. Week after Week.
Bo Nix showed something beyond talent electing to play in bowl game, teamates will sell out for hom His ability go improvise on the fly reminds me of Brock Purdy with more natural ability. Would take him in a heartbeat.