On today’s episode of PFN’s ‘Draft Insiders’ (click here to watch it), Tony Pauline produced a series of reports that included:
— Deebo Samuel to the Jets is 70/30 likely to happen
— Ikem Ekwonu is Doug Pederson’s preferred choice at #1 overall and Tony made that projection in his mock draft (published tomorrow)
— There’s a distinct possibility the Texans take Derek Stingley Jr at #3
— The Packers really like Treylon Burks and the Chiefs like Kyler Gordon
He also produced some crucial information on the Seahawks and it couldn’t be more dismaying, in my opinion.
Obviously this is just a report. It might not come true. I just want to give some thoughts on what the #1 draft insider has been saying about the Seahawks.
Tony claims the Saints have contacted Seattle about moving up to #9 to acquire a receiver in the top-10. He also says the Eagles are interested in moving up and indeed, in his mock tomorrow, he has Philadelphia trading up to #9 to select Jameson Williams.
He then says the Seahawks will draft Trevor Penning in the mid-first round before trading back into the first frame in a deal with the Packers to select Desmond Ridder.
This was quite a firm report from Pauline. He didn’t qualify it with any doubt or base-covering. It was delivered almost statement-like — presumably because he’s hearing this from numerous sources.
I wouldn’t be a fan of this. At all.
We’ve been talking about Penning and Seattle for a long time. He was the first player I wrote about last year at the start of the new draft cycle. He’s an explosive tester, a great athlete and he has identical size to the two tackles who’ve been starting in LA.
He is, quite clearly, ‘a Seahawk’.
The two gaping holes at tackle on the roster are a massive tell going into the draft. They are going to draft at least one tackle with one of their first three picks.
Personally I would prefer it to be Abraham Lucas — who is a terrific run blocker. People assume he isn’t because he played for Washington State. Yet they’ve not been running the Mike Leach offense for some time now and the Cougs have been running the ball in the 42-45% range the last couple of seasons.
According to PFF, Lucas’ run-blocking grade in 2021 was a 91.0 — his highest mark.
Yet Penning has felt destined for Seattle for some time. So why the concern?
It’s a mix of technical flaws that I’ve talked about and his playing style. At the Senior Bowl he got beat, quite a lot. He’s very upright in his stance and opponents are able to get into his big frame and drive him backwards. He kept giving up the inside counter in 1v1’s so he over-compensated. Opponents realised this, feigned inside and then converted speed-to-power to drive into his chest and push him backwards.
He needs a lot of work and I’m not sure he’ll ever be left tackle material because he needs to be the type of player who comes off the ball and attacks. I wouldn’t ever want to rely on him, based on what we’ve seen so far, to protect a quarterback’s blind side.
Then there’s all the judo-tossing opponents after the whistle which was evident on tape and at the Senior Bowl. It bothers me. I think he’s trying to prove he’s a tough-guy. Some of those moves happened after he got beat, badly. It’s not just the fear of a Breno Giacomini-style flag fest at the next level. Why does he need to do it?
I don’t want players feeling like they have to prove how ‘tough’ they are. Kam Chancellor never had to. Jason Kelce doesn’t do any of this. Be tough by playing sound, fundamental football and burying opponents because you’re 6-7, 325lbs and an explosive athlete. Not by getting beat off the edge, throwing them down and then getting a little cheap-shot in like he did on Tyreke Smith in Mobile.
When I spoke with Jake Heaps yesterday he voiced concerns because Germain Ifedi did similar things in Seattle. He tried too hard to prove his toughness.
It all feels so familiar.
As badly as tackle is a need, I just don’t want to go in this direction. Yet this is exactly the type of move they tend to make.
In 2-3 years time some TV broadcaster is going to post a graphic. On one side of the screen it’ll say ‘Russell Wilson’. On the other side will be the list of players Seattle selected with the picks they got for Wilson.
I don’t want the top name on the list to be Trevor Penning, a player who is so boom or bust. The idea of launching this whole next phase with Penning is troublesome — even after trading down.
It feels like a shot the LA Chargers can make. They have an almost complete roster. They can plug Penning in and roll the dice, knowing the consequences are limited if the bust is bigger than the boom. If he’s only OK or plays erratic or out of control, well they have enough talent elsewhere to live with it.
The Seahawks are in no fit shape to do that. They have to get this pick right and it has to be a consistent, quality performer.
However, the ‘oh no’ rating of this pick will pale into significance if they trade back into round one to take Desmond Ridder.
I can’t express enough how much I would be against this.
Ridder is an extremely likeable person. You can’t help but respect what he achieved at Cincinnati. He’s very athletic and he’s what some people refer to as ‘a winner’.
But let’s just be right here — his tape is bang average at best. In what world can you justify taking a player in round one with such erratic accuracy?
Yes there are flashes of brilliance. He has two throws against Notre Dame that were as good as anything you’ll see — one to the left sideline and a great seam throw on a second-half drive. Yet this all followed a stuttering, stalling first half where he couldn’t make easy completions and needed the defense to bail him out after a rough couple of quarters, gifting short-fields to put points on the board.
Watch the Navy game. He’s absolutely dreadful in it. The misses are cringe-inducing.
And then there’s the Alabama game where he looked overwhelmed and out of ideas. A truly limited player facing a pro-caliber defense.
He doesn’t have an amazing arm and he’s not consistent with his accuracy. He has robotic mechanics that create their own problems and as soon as he feels pressure he squares to the line and it’s game over.
This can’t be the future of the franchise. Surely not?
They resisted Andy Dalton in 2011 but Desmond Ridder is now so irresistible?
I fear they’ll just put themselves in a position of QB purgatory, wasting a couple of years (or more) on Ridder trying to take a leap that never comes.
This needs to be a draft where the Seahawks set the foundations. Forget what might be the biggest needs. You need to add talent in key areas.
I would much rather trade down from #9 and up from #40 and come out with Zion Johnson and Tyler Linderbaum. Two players who are easily projectable as really good long term starters with a shot to be among the best at their positions.
You could then create a proper running game to support your chosen identity.
Then just go and re-sign Duane Brown. You’ve overpaid for others so just do what it takes to get Brown back.
With your other high pick, target a dynamic front-seven defender.
It doesn’t have to be Zion Johnson in round one either. Select Jordan Davis or Devonte Wyatt if you prefer. Or one of the other pass rushers.
Heck — if you’re going to waste stock trading up for Ridder anyway, why not just give it to Carolina and get up to #6 for one of the top pass rushers? After all, you said at the start of the off-season that improving the pass rush was a big priority.
A few weeks ago it was reported that Ridder had been presenting teams with a plan to show how he would beat out a veteran starter in camp. I really hope they haven’t been sold on this plan, with the idea that he’ll be able to come in and be the answer in 2022 — not just beyond.
But really, would it be a huge surprise?
They’ve done nothing at tackle so they’ll draft a tackle. They’ve done nothing at linebacker so they’ll probably draft a linebacker. They’ve only added Drew Lock and retained Geno Smith. Trying to recreate the 2012 competition at quarterback is something I can imagine them doing.
Because after all, Pete Carroll thought this team was ‘close’ at the end of the 2021 season. He probably still believes that.
The reality is — they aren’t close. They are not close. Wins against Detroit and a slumping, miserable Arizona are not indicative of anything. Especially after chastening losses to the Rams and Bears preceded those wins.
This should be a golden opportunity to build a foundation in a deep draft, not force needs or rush the quarterback situation.
Beginning this rebuild with Trevor Penning and Desmond Ridder would be scary.
Yet the two picks projected by Tony Pauline scream Seahawks, sadly.
I hope he’s wrong. I really do.
On a happier note, Albert Breer’s mock draft had Derek Stingley Jr and Jermaine Johnson available at #9.
If you’ve enjoyed the content on Seahawks Draft Blog this off-season then why not consider supporting us via Patreon (click the tab below)…
Well I have family obligations this week so I won’t be able to be watch the draft. First draft I will miss in forever. I’m not a bit upset. PC/JS will muck it up for sure. I’m actually happy to miss this shite show.
🤮. Hopefully it is a smoke screen. Building through the trenches and elevating their toughness seems like the better plan. Only one more day… almost feels like Christmas Eve. Hopefully we do not get a pair of socks!
You can never have enough socks though….
But yes I think there could be an element of smokescreen here.
💯🎄🎅✔️
Socks and a maybe a toothbrush. Oh, joy.
Mike Salk has been talking about how these would be his ideal players for the Seahawks. So not only would we we have a subpar draft but we can also look forward to local praise on how awesome they drafted. I really hope the draft doesn’t go this way.
Hasn’t the offseason been indicative that they think they still can win. They filled holes in the free agency period and retained average players at best. The NFL is about superstars and rookie contract depth. If you take Penning and Ridder, you’ll just have 2 more average players.
Penning will start at left tackle and will fail there and be moved to RT.
Ridder will lose the competition to Lock and once Lock fails, Ridder will come in and play just good enough for them to not take a QB next year.
It will be a waste of an opportunity and Pete and John will hang around producing 7-9 win seasons every year.
I really hate to say this…but if those are the first two picks…I just don’t know how I can go on watching this team with that leadership.
You’re going to turn RW into a replaceable RT who can’t pass block and a QB you will absolutely be looking to move on from in 2-3 years…incredible.
I can hear PC on the phone with Ridder now: “ You’re coming to Seattle to throw passes to DK Metcalf. How about that. We are so jacked!”
“You’re coming to Seattle to [miss deep throws] to DK Metcalf. How about that. We are so jacked! DK, however, will drop-kick you out of the stadium in three games.”
Indeed… this would be so dispiriting. Not out of character but definitely a kick in the nuts
So dang discouraging…. Please someone grab Penning before us. I would trust most people on this board to draft over JS/PC. Maybe (hopefully) this is a smokescreen. If not, Its sad the hawks have all resources in the world and still screw things up
We need an objective 3rd voice in the Pete and John echo chamber with some level of power.
this is where we all pray tony is as accurate with this info as he has been about our picks the last two years because that would be horrible.
What has Tony said the last couple of years on the Seahawks? Would be interesting to see how he missed and if there’s a pattern to that.
i just looked up his two final mocks for the last two years and he scores 0/3 on who we drafted and position we drafted.
You’re both wayyyyy missing the point.
The last two years Tony didn’t report who the Seahawks were going to draft. He just did a mock. Are you expecting him to, you know, get every pick right???
This is a report.
A very specific report.
Big difference.
my hope is he knows we are inquiring about moving back up into the first but that the target is his educated guess. i’m holding onto the hope that its for linderbaum rather than ridder
Last year he reported the seahawks really liked Dee Eskridge.
I live in the SDB echo chamber, making this the absolute worst case scenario.
I feel sick.
Even Pauline calls Zion Johnson a late 1st round pick and has Penning rated higher. I understand he isn’t your favorite tackle but you are in the minority on Penning. I whole heartedly agree on Ridder, and think people are overblowing the how badly teams want to trade back into the first round for a QB. I think we are seeing quite a lot more misinformation this year than I remember especially with all these shitty quarterbacks.
Good old Steve, taking his time to poll the entire fan base before commenting here to tell me I’m in the minority.
Tony Pauline ranks Trevor at #18 on his big board. Other draft pundits have him high as well. So at the very least, it seems like a debatable matter, no?
In what way is it debatable?
I literally said in the article the team picking at #17 could justify the selection.
I also said I didn’t want the Seahawks to take him and explained why.
I didn’t write the piece in French.
Sacré bleu! Pourquoi suis-je venu sur ce blog?
lol
And as for this report by Tony:
plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose 🙁
“M. Penn-ning. Avec M. Reed-er. Mon Dieu!”
So Rob, you said Penning tested well, 99.9 rating on run blocking in college, while the other top tackles might not be as good at run blocking. I get the overcompensating at Senior Bowl but his tape and testing are solid. Maybe you’re overreacting?
On Ridder, I haven’t watched all the tape but saw his accuracy was tops for this group of QB’s, as is his processing/pre-snap, 4.5 speed and he’s a WINNER (ala Russ). Not gonna die on this sword, but at some pint they gotta take a shot right?
“Hi Rob, I know you’ve basically run a second full time job for the last month studying these players but I’m an internet commenter and just wanted to say, is there a chance you’re overreacting dear?”
“And by the way, it’s been zero drafts since the Wilson trade. Don’t you think it’s about time they draft any QB? At some point they have to take a shot, right!”
If we trade back to 17 and pick up a 3rd and draft Penning, I wouldn’t love it but I would get it. I feel trading up for Ridder would be much worse, and I’d be pretty pissed if that’s the direction we go.
Rob would you feel ok if we stood pat at 40 and took Ridder, or would you still view it as a big mistake?
Mistake
He’s not good enough
Notes from Madden:
2022: drafted QB Ridder, went 7-10. 3rd round pick. Boye Mafe and Leo Chenal in 2nd.
2023: drafted QB Stroud, immediate upgrade. The franchise isn’t super enjoyable to play though. Tagged DK.
Ever since these reports surfaced earlier this week I have been fearing just this scenario. Penning is a fake tough guy and has bust written all over him.
Then wasting draft capital to draft a QB, who is at best a 4th rounder.
These are the kind of moves that would continue to show John and Pete have lost touch with how to build a winner. That they see what positions they want to draft then see which player left fills that hole.
I hope these reports are just that and they are just playing the game.
We can only hope this is a smokescreen. Could be the start of a dark period for the Hawks.
What I see is a roster with only one proven 1st contract core player on it. That player is DK. In other words, it’s an absolute blank slate. Darrell Taylor might prove to be another over time. We are absolutely starting from scratch after bleeding out for nearly a decade.
Success in the NFL is not a big secret. It starts with talent acquisition. With the right talent you can operate whatever offense or defense you want and find a way to win. With two relatively equal squads it might come down to coaching, “IT” factor, officiating or a gust of wind.
We have a roster devoid of talent. We have a FO that are close to proving that they’ve completely lost their Vision. They are operating with confidence in keeping their jobs regardless of the results. They seem to be delusional & arrogant, above questioning.
Please, please, please recognize what the rest of us all seem to see & draft to add the best talent you can find. Have a clear vision of the team you want to build and the patience to execute that vision. Change the trend from descent to ascent. Get the fans excited again with a new young core group of players. There are so many good ones in this draft that it seems like you’d have to try to F it up. Get it right & there is hope again. Get it wrong & you’ll be coaching in front of an ever emptier, quiet Clink (or whatever it’s called now). And for the love of Pete, if you’re going to draft OL hire a consultant to make the pick for you, throw a dart at the wall or do the exact opposite of whatever you were going to do, George Costanza style.
Right on the nose, including the “bleeding out for nearly a decade.”
If the Seahawks took penning at 15 or 16 wouldn’t be the end of the world. At least that seems like where his predicted range is. Im afraid they might take him at 9. And do they really need to trade up for ridder? I wouldn’t like the pick at 40 but could live with it. Im sick of the Seahawks overdrafting the players they hyper focus on versus let the draft come to you and take bpa. Im always jealous of the ravens drafts.
What did Jim Nagy have to say about Penning?
It seems like John and Pete put a lot of weight in Nagy’s opinion.
He said there weren’t 10 better players in this draft
Where would he reasonably go in the 2020 draft? Where would Ridder go in last years draft? Both just feel like they don’t belong where their slotted to be drafted- which makes them all the more ‘Seahawky’
This scenario has felt inevitable. Drafting these two players would really tie a nice bow on the dismantling of a contender. Quite impressive really when you look at it.
Poor draft after poor draft, seemingly one step forward, two steps back. The Clark trade coming back with Collier, the Adams trade, Russ trade to come back with these two. Squandering of resources. A belief that there is just a missing piece away, so close and yet couldn’t be further away.
The silver lining of course would be drafting Penning/Ridder would surely seal the fate of PC/JS and maybe we can finally move on.
To my friend in the mile high….i’ve been thinking how the symmetry of them being yshered out for a new regime with extra picks from Denver the way they came in would probably be the best thing moving forward.
Sadly, I think they’ll get a full pass this year no matter what.
2025.
That’s the most realistic end for them.
WTF .Surely by now you can see the far superior talent compared to these guys .
I would even take a punt on average Baker Mayfield (on the cheap) and draft a bit more quality instead of Ridder . If they really draft these two and waste the potential base of a rebuild , you can be sure next years draft will be the exact same .
how frustrating .
hopefully they go a different route .
That’s part of why trading up for Ridder or Corral is so baffling. Baker can be had for pennies on the dollar. Say what you will about Baker, when healthy, hes an averageNFL QB. Average presenting an upgrade.
Agree to take on $3m of salary+ 153 for Baker+209. Saving $3m and moving up 56 spots is better than nothing. Cleveland has to bite that bullet sometime. Nobody is beating down their door for Baker.
As respected as Tony Pauline is, I don’t recall him ever identifying the Seahawks draft picks two days before the draft. John and Pete have never, in their 12 years of tenure, ever had a draft pick leak out ahead of time. I suspect that Pauline has a couple of GMs feeding him their fairly-informed speculation, but there is no reason to think he has a source within the Seahawks which has never existed before. Nor would John tip his hand and tell other GMs in trade discussions who he would select with those picks. Sorry, Tony, I don’t believe you.
Tony reported Ifedi
Tony reported, randomly, for about two months they would draft Terry Poole (and they did)
Tony has had accurate Seahawks reports over the years — including pushing back on the Metcalf stuff recently when the media was saying he’d be dealt, and a year ago insisting RW wouldn’t be traded in 2021 but probably would be in 2022
3/4 of the mocks that year had Ifedi to Seattle, heck I even mocked him to the Seahawks and I don’t know anything. The Poole report was probably agent-based relying on level of interest pre-draft. If we have learned anything about John and Pete over the past dozen years, it is that their draft intentions never ever leak out of their war room. They are probably in discussion with ten or more teams about R1 trade scenarios and we can rest assured that John is not telling any of them who he intends to draft with that trade pick.
You’re just dealing in confirmation bias here James.
Conveniently the report on Poole was just ‘agent based’ and should be dismissed. Actually it’s one of the best pieces of insider projection I can ever remember writing this blog.
When have we learned that, exactly?
Chris Mortensen told Russell Wilson to his face, before the draft, he was going to be a Seahawk.
Peter Schrager two years ago suddenly mocked Darrell Taylor to Seattle in R1 and said they ‘loved him’ the night before the 2020 draft.
Jason La Canfora was convinced the Seahawks were going to take Frank Clark in R2.
You’re just doing that thing where you’ve been presented with some unpleasant information and now you’re trying desperately to dismiss it.
As I said, Tony’s report might not come true. But people don’t have to try so hard to wish this away.
I was watching some utube and board and arrow claims Trevor Penning is the most over rated player in the draft.rob through tape you have seen doesn’t Trevor Penning look a little stiff at times and possibly have trouble speed rushers. And at times does Trevor seem a little hesitant at times
I think he’s upright and at times unsure of himself. For me a classic left tackle can do the basics like playing inside-out. They need a good kick-slide. I want to see good use of the hands. At the moment Penning’s strong reps seem to be when he can brawl a bit and he wins and loses in more or less equal measure in pass pro.
Can he develop technique? Sure. But it’s a long road from where he is and that bothers me.
i know he put up good physical numbers but to my untrained eye he looks worse than quite a few of the tackles marked down to go on the second day. His senior bowl drill tape is horrible.
I’ve been on the Penning train for months now. He’s been my favorite player and I’d love to have him in Seattle. But even I agree that he has A LOT of work to do. I’m higher on his attitude than most and maybe that because I miss being the bully and imposing will on our opponents. We get pushed around and we just kinda mope about it.
I wanted Penning but I had in my head that he’d be kind of incoming class of bad intentions; that we’d also find guys like Luke Goedeke and Damarri Mathis and Michael Clemons, Jayln Armour-Davis, Bubba Bolden and Cole Strange. Guys that play with violence through the whistle. Then throw in some smart, savvy dudes like Thomas Booker and Malcolm Rodriguez and Quentin Lake to strike a kind of feng shui.
Penning and a trade-up for Ridder? Not really what I was hoping for. Maybe Ridder goes before we have a chance to take him and their grand plan unravels.
The “always compete” culture – unfortunately has resulted in reaching past and ignoring the obvious. Why do what is expected and makes sense when you can do the unexpected and what no one could have guessed? So tired of this…
Love Pete
And he needs to move on
John’s a great relationship guy
And he’s been abysmal in the draft and also needs to go
“Heck — if you’re going to waste stock trading up for Ridder anyway, why not just give it to Carolina and get up to #6 for one of the top pass rushers? After all, you said at the start of the off-season that improving the pass rush was a big priority.”
That’s pretty much where I’m at. I’d trade up for Evan Neal too.
Everything about the same I’d rather move up to 6 give Carolina a third and hooe like hell Johnson or neal was there.
This would be a mistake we can’t afford. It already started with trading Wilson, we shouldn’t make it worse. The ideal case would be getting an edge rusher and I’d be ready to trade up for that. I can live with Stingley. I would understand, but don’t like, trading down and getting an IOL if that brings us say another third that we turn into a starter, we have enough holes in the roster.
If there’s no LT available at #9 with ideal LT profile, you don’t force the pick. Get a LT in the mid rounds and develop him into a starter.
And Ridder, sorry but I’d rather have Baker Mayfield.
I think it’s important to get a few things straight:
1. Tony’s report could be wrong
2. Even if he is wrong, Tony is still a really good insider and anyone who can project Terry Poole to Seattle in R4 totally randomly isn’t someone to dismiss
3. Other teams might take these players off the board before Seattle can make a move
4. It might be more luck than judgement if that happens
Woulda been cool of Tony was like, “Oh you guys like Terry Poole? Interesting. But hey…have you looked at Shaq Mason at all? Or Max Garcia? Give them another look in case you have an opportunity to decide between them….”
First, I love all the work you do for us fans. I have had several tabs open for two weeks now and I simulate on profootballnetwork.com. Bouncing back and forth as I draft/trade back/trade up, there are far too many options at OL, DT and DE. Trading back several times as the draft progresses provides too much capital for PC’s “compete” to ignore. Pete may have a very poor pair of glasses on and an even worse mirror to gaze into. I know you trust Pauline, so if this has any legs at all, Dog help us all. To spare you any drafts I have completed (and they are in the 70’s), I always create a spot in the 190’s to 220’s for Jack Coan after having filled a roster full of competition along both lines! Thanks for the work you do.
B
I’d hate this. I wonder what Desai would think.
He does fit, in terms of physical profile. For sure.
If all the pass rushers are gone at #9, I’d honestly rather have Zion Johnson. It seems an even money bet that he ends up one of the best guards in the entire league. AND his floor is high.
Penning seems like a guy that could be out of the league in a few years if he doesn’t get a lot better.
I like Ridder more than most, but your criticisms of him are fair. I think his accuracy issues are to do with mechanics. I don’t know if you can fix his performance under pressure or against top competition.
Unpopular opinion. Could care less if they drafted Zion 1/3 of a round higher than he “should,” go. Every year there are columns about draft do-overs. I think Zion has the chance to be maybe the best olinemen in this draft.
Not even sure penning making the leap to much bigger time football will stick at guard let alone LT.
For what it’s worth, Todd McShay reported yesterday that he’s hearing the Seahawks really like Derek Stingley and Jordan Davis. We can only hope that Penning gets taken before the Seahawk’s selection if they trade down. I’m pretty much open to anyone in the top 20 except Penning at this point.
I can’t get Ridder’s Bama game out of my head. He had a golden opportunity to show his skills on a national stage and did absolutely nothing. I don’t care if your team is overmatched, the great ones in those situations are able to make things happens. He did none of that.
My college fandom is rooted in underdogs. I had wantedfor all the world for cinco to beat alabama. Inable to do that i wanted them to go out swinging.
They did neither. Ridder was completely lost and there’s no way to shae that feeling when the nfl is that times 31 other teams.
I remember watching the game willing them to be competitive
And they were so crap. Ridder was crap.
If people want to understand all the stuff on Kayvon Thibodeaux, watch this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydxB8sVAUHE
It’s not that he’s a bad person. Far from it. But when he’s talking about football being ‘his grand central station’ for success elsewhere and ‘I don’t want to have all my eggs in football’ — naturally this is going to make people wonder whether he’s got his eye on the ball here.
He’s not going to be a character concern. He’s not a trouble maker. It’s just whether he’s going to spend all his time trying to be great or is he going to be spinning about 20 plates because, in his words, he sees himself as a ‘true entrepreneur’
When you have your pick of a bunch of good players, these are just things teams have to consider. But someone will take him early.
As long as he knows that his brand DEPENDS on how well he plays on Sundays and executes accordingly, I’m ok with that.
Totally agree and I think he is a smart enough guy to understand that his success on Sunday’s will be instrumental in building up his brand.
I would be fine with this scenario, I would prefer Stingley and exchanging a late round pick for Baker, but if Pauline nails it I’ll put some faith in development and coaching.
Surely if they trade up for any QB as bad as the quality is , they would be more interested in Corral rather than ridder even though id prefer neither to be honest ? unless Ridders meeting with them was super impressive ??
Option a. Neither
Option b. Corral. Ridder is where he is. At least with Corrall it’s the hope that kills you. And i think he has more fire in his game.
Hi Rob,
Love your work. You’re the best by far. You always seem to call players well ahead of everyone else. I’ll see unrelated draft boards mention you from time to time.
I hope we don’t go Penning then Ridder. If we do, I hope we take at least one of Cam Jurgens or Cole Strange in the second – you might as well go all in with the O line at that point with a RB thrown in somewhere.
But we’ll see. Who knows?
Honestly beyond Ridder, I just don’t want them to trade future first round picks. It’s never worked out for them.
And hey, if it is Ridder I’ll give him a shot. They could probably win a few games if they solve the o line. If it’s Ridder and they win 3 games, well…
Anyway, keep up the great work.
Our only hope is that New Orleans will jump us and take Penning off the board.
This report, and tweeting about it, reminds me how f-ing toxic this fanbase is as soon as anyone starts delving into anything less than 100% positive about this team.
Every fanbase really. Twitter is awful (I use it to follow sports, including you!) but it’s bad. People suck (mostly).
Unfortunately it’s not just this fan base. Civil debate has been flushed and now it’s all out war against anyone who has a different opinion. The great thing about your blog is we are free to express opinion and disagree and still share the common bond of excitement and disappointment for our team. Social media is by and large full of self absorbed narcissist who get pleasure out of being controversial and garnering likes and followers. Toxic crap. Love your blog and thanks for putting up with the crap and still giving us great content to discuss.
Rob, for as bad as this fanbase can be, please realize your dedicated readership doesn’t share that toxicity. There may be disagreements and egos hurt but you’re far too valuable and important to lose from those kind of people. We value your honest takes on players and front office and the reasoned criticism you provide is sorely lacking in any other media that covers the Seahawks. Stay strong, my friend.
I don’t know Rob, you kinda deserve it. You bring it on yourself.
You’ve been trying to run Russell Wilson out of town for almost two years. And has it happened? No. I saw him just yesterday in his navy blue uni getting ready for the season.
The national mocks are reaching “paralysis by analysis” status. Every single one of the top guys now have major negatives: Hutchinson, not an elite tester; Walker, just a 5 Tech and not a true pass rusher; Ekwonu, just a guard in sheep’s clothing, as it Neal; Cross, no power or sand in the pants; Gardner, holes in his game as projected in the pros; Thibodeaux, character and Stingley the same, Jameson, doesn’t have elite bend… What little I know, and I know very little, is that all these guys look really good to me and would help the Seahawks tremendously. And to prove that my claim to know little is not a hollow claim, I will demonstrate it with my own Mock: #9, Willis QB; #40 Lucas, OT; #41 Jurgens, C; then maybe trade R3 and R4 back up into R2 and select a Leo.
Just out of sheer curiosity, I wanted to check out what the vegas betting odds are for the top 10 picks, and its kind of interesting. This is all from DraftKings listing the odds btw
JAX: Travon Walker -190
DET: Aidan Hutchinson -200
Nothing unusual
HOU: Stingley +240, Ekwonu +330, Gardner +425, Thibodeaux+450
So this lines up with what was mentioned at the top of the post.
NYJ: Thibodeaux +175, Jermaine Johnson +300, Ekwonu +450, Gardener +450
So vegas is betting on a pass rusher at #4 and Thibodeaux seems like the favorite, and would be the logical choice in this scenario.
NYG: Ekwonu +175, Cross +250, Neal +380
Heavy odds on OL here
CAR: Same order as above, but after the three OL players, Kenny Pickett is at +500 and Willis is at +800
NYG: Gardner is the odd favorite at +250 with Stingley at +350. After that its Cross +400, Johnson +500, Neal +500
ATL: Garret Wilson +300, Jameson Williams +350, Drake London +400, Malik Willis +500
So there is heavy odds that ALT goes WR
SEA: Stingley +250, Neal +350, Cross +500, Johnson +700, Penning +900
Granted that these odd are for the draft position and not necessarily the team, this lines up with Seattle’s bet that the first pick will be be a DB at +150 or a OL at +200, with DL at +380
I’m not entirely sure what to make of all this, but if the board falls similarly to this, but the over under position for Johnson is at 9.5 which is obviously ideal. What Rob mentioned in this post does have me a bit worried, but Carroll made it very clear early on iirc that his +1 off season priority was to improve the pass rush and the signing of Nwosu does indeed feel like a classic draft hedge. And even if Johnson does go much earlier, I would be very happy with Stingley at #9.
Pete is good at talking. Follow – through, not so much.
Wish I could bet in these markets
I just have to say I’m enjoying this draft immensely. I’ve missed this level of engagement what with the last few years of scarce resources. Kudos to you, Rob! You have risen to the occasion.
What I want for the draft. One of two scenarios scenarios:
Offensive edition:
Rd 1. #15. Zion Johnson. Get a player without questions who helps the run game and the passing game. Possibly the best olinemen in this draft.
Rd 2. #40. Cam Jurgens. Too high? Don’t care. Get a guy who puts dudes on skids and walks them around.
Rd 2. #41. Boye mafe. After parsing a ton of mocks this feels like ehere he lands.
Rd. 3. #72. Dameon Pierce. It’s time to get a guy who players get up for
Rd. 3. # 80 ish (?) From the trade down for Zion. Alec Pierce. The seahawks need a third WR and it seems and he’s got pretty great testing numbers.
Just like the Hawks to use the draft to fill positional holes w early picks, rather than BPA. They made their bones in mid rounds when they chose BPA. Apply that eye for talent to whole draft, rather than just later. No way are Penning (at 9) or Ritter (late first) BPA at those points, imo.
That said, I would give Schneider benefit of doubt on QB evaluation, so if they really are high enough on Ritter to trade up to get him, I’ll reserve some judgment. If you pick the right QB, it doesn’t matter where you pick him.
People say this about John. But someone traded for whitehurst and he got rejected from drafting Dalton.
I’ll give him the benefit……if…..ridder works out. Until then there’s only one (very) successful bench mark in Wilson.
Charlie Whitehurst
Matt Flynn
Tarvaris Jackson
All came before Russ
Benefit of the doubt? Why? Have you not paid attention to the last 9 drafts?
What I want defensive edition.
Or the let’s weird scenario..
Rd 1. #15. Devontae Wyatt. Like Zion the DT i personally feel will be the best in this draft.
Rd1. #28. (Two fourths to move up from 40) lewis Cine. You know who does a better version of Jamal Adams? Cine. Range. Tackling. Sifting through traffic. Breaks up tons of passes.
Rd. 2. #41. Channing tindall. Rob and a few of ours favorite LB in this draft. Oh and instant chemistry with the other two picks.
Rd. 3 #72. Cole Strange. Passes the stare down test. Center hopefully. Guard possibly
Rd. 3 # 80’s (?) Still dameon pierce. It’s always going to be pierce until further notice.
I do think Wyatt is the best defender in that talented UGA frontline, but I think they will get more value by trading up for an OT.
No QB in this league can stay upright for the entire season with our current OL.
Rob: Lets say that Seattle does trade with New Orleans. Is there a team between the number nine pick and the number 16 pick that might take Penning?
Also if the Hawks do trade up with Green Bay and take Ridder then all the praises they threw upon Drew Lock is BS.
Baltimore maybe
Hey Rob, I agree that Penning would probably be the wrong choice to start out the rebuild. But, have you looked at Lance Zierlein’s overview on Penning? It’s quite the praise. He even states he should become an instant starter at LT or RT. I’m more on the draft best player available side, but Zierlein’s praise for Penning makes drafting him not sound quite so bad.
Yes, I have read all of Lance’s reports.
And I respect what Lance does immensely.
I also pour my heart and soul into this, do my own study and research, and I disagree with a lot of what Lance says in his annual reports every year
And I don’t want the Seahawks to launch this rebuild with Trevor Penning
Lets hope this is all a massive smoke screen. If you really want 2 specific guys that badly, would you really let it leak out like that so every other team knows it as well? Seems ridiculous that they could let that happen. Never have any picks been telegraphed by the Seahawks, they are almost always a surprise (unfortunately usually not in a good way). I just can’t help but think that these are smokescreens, but at the same time, both picks seem like classic Seahawks moves from the past few off seasons so its hard to stay optimistic.
Tony named NO and PHI as wanting to trade up for a WR.
Multiple reports of Carolina and NYG wanting to move down from 6 and 7. ATL needs basically everything but a LT, and is consistently mocked WR at 8. NYJ needs a WR, tried to trade for Tyreek, and is in serious pursuit of Deebo. If SF gets 10 they’ll need a WR.
Hopefully at least 1 CB and 1 WR are off the board at 9, pushing down an edge or OT. If the chatter is to be believed this seems more likely than last week Run the pick in for JJ, Thibs, Neal, Icky or Cross. In that order. I have a hard time seeing us pick a CB at 9.
Man, you’ve got to hope like hell that this is a smokescreen for the brilliance that Pete/JS are about to unleash.
And then I re-read that and it strikes me that they would quite likely consider these picks as brilliant:
We needed a tackle, what did we get? A tackle. We needed a quarterback, what did we get? A quarterback. Boom. Done. Let’s get after it.
But, if these are the picks, then either they’ve lost the thread on what they’re doing or they don’t give a shit…possibly both. Probably both.
It has to be a smokescreen.
Right?
I’m not going scorched earth – I’m not going scorched earth – I’m not going scorched earth – yet – we’re going to let it play out – you never know.
Instead, gonna paint some happy little trees and think positive thoughts about the bamf defense that could be built beginning with this draft and then will it into existence. Hey, this happy little tree looks like Cine – that one looks like Tindall – and this one looks kind of like Mr. Clemons. Let’s imagine the happy little trees taking ownership of Kyler Murray’s soul next season. And now Matt Stafford’s. Wow, the Happy Little Tree Defense is more fun than even the Chuffing Bear! Who knew?
Who am I kidding. We can’t have nice things; we’ve got Pete.
I’m readying the absinthe and my fainting Chaise for draft weekend.
Nothing against Rob, probably he’s right as most of the time, but your posts are saving my days. Brilliant.
Agreed! Love the Gross MaToast commentary!!
Has anyone ever predicted Seattle’s draft picks?
I’ll wait and see and take this as a guess work on who they, trading down maybe what they want but let’s wait and see
Yes
no doubt this would be a horrendous misuse of high draft picks. but let’s not forget the players who are likely to be available in the middle/late rounds such as Mr. Clemons and Kevin Harris. True BAMFs who drink their coffee straight from the pot and don’t give a toss about Dries Van Noten’s fabulous knitwear.
Devil’s advocate:
They need to take shots at QB. They might not have the option to draft the top2-3 QB next year. Broncos unlikely to finish worse than to get like a #13-18 pick. I don’t think Hawks native pick will be better than #7-8 either, more likely around #9-11. To get a top QB, they’d likely need to trade up into the top2-3. That could mean giving up 2xR1, 2xR2. If they take a QB here, they have options: test that QB, if he’s good, let him start and use next year’s 4xR1-2 pick to gather talent around him. If he’s mediocre, they can draft a QB next year again and use this year’s guy as a quality backup or trade him for a R3-4 (sure not the best outcome). If this guy sucks, then it sucks, but that is the draft, and that is why you can draft a QB late R1 instead of top3 picks.
An elite, quality OT without questions will likely go in top10. Penning will likely be a boom or bust. He has tools, but he has issues, mostly mental stuff and some technical. If the coaching staff thinks they can work with those and eliminate those, without issues the player would likely go in top8-10. They have 2 glaring holes for LT and RT. They need to add someone, and doesn’t really have much money to get 2 quality FAs (there are not really any 2 quality OT FAs either).
Zion Johnson would likely be a much quality player. But they’re standing better with OGs than OTs and OT is a more important position
So for OT, they created an issue in FA. They MUST do something about it. They could maybe get Brown (not sure if he wants to come back) and Shell (not sure he’s decent or not at all), but maybe those guys don’t really wanna come here. Penning is likely better than Shell at least. So I hate they created this scenario, I’d hate the Penning pick and not fan of the player either. But it is an understandable pick.
As for QB, they could put their eggs into next year basket and roll with Lock and Geno. But who can say they’ll be able to pick Lewis? They might not even a shot at all. And even if they pick him, he might not be the answer (although much more likely than Ridder be the franchise QB). And even if they can pick him and Lewis is the next franchise QB, most QBs are not that durable as Russ was. We need quality backup. They can cut Geno, and Lock doesn’t have contract for next year. So if Ridder is superb, we can use next year’s 4 picks in R1-2 to acquire talent around him. If he’s not great, we can draft a QB next year and use Ridder as a backup.
Trading back into the first give you 5th year with that QB on the cheap. I’d hope they try to get back into #29-32 with only a R3. That would mean we still have #13 or something like that, #30, #40, #72, like trading #9 and #41 and get #13 (or something like that) and #29.
Will I hate if they make those 2 picks? Yes. I don’t care about those players, and not excited to watch them how they play. I’d be pumped to see Stingley playing, or even Lloyd. If they get Ridder and Penning, I won’t subscribe to Gamepass and only watch some of their games later, but if they have a roster like they currently have I can see why they’d wanna make that 2 picks
And I still think that Tony could be wrong, or they could feed the media smokescreen. They might also wanna take Johnson and Corrall for example, or go to a totally different route
It wouldn’t surprise me if Pete Carroll’s first three picks in the draft were Trevor Penning, Desmond Ridder and a linebacker. Followed up most likely by a running back and a developmental pass rusher. Pete has holes that need to be filled.
If this is the case, it also wouldn’t surprise me to see the Seahawks win three games this year and be right back in the same place next year still needing to build a foundation for the future.
When Rob says Trevor Penning is a player who is boom or bust and not the guy you want to draft with your first pick, and by drafting Ridder they’ll just put themselves in QB purgatory, wasting a couple of years (or more) on him trying to take a leap that never comes, I listen.
It makes you wonder, how can Pete Carroll with all the tools he has at his disposal, keeps making bad decisions in the draft, FA signings and trades?
Not held accountable? He just knows whats best for the team? Always had RW to fall back on and cover up his mistakes?
But this year is going to be different, it’s all going to be on Pete. It’s his team now. He still may not be held accountable by ownership, but he will be by the fans if this season turns into a hot mess and lets hope the media as well.
Sadly, were in Head Coach purgatory, wasting a couple of years (or more) on Pete Carroll trying to take a leap that will never come.
By now, all of us are used to this type of scenario.
We all get our hopes up then they are ultimately dashed to bits by these head scratching choices. This is the defining draft of the PC and JS era…..If they do what Pauline suggested, I’m afraid the rebuild will be decades in the making.
By ignoring a regime change at the perfect time to make that decision, Allen has put everyone in the position of failure if this is the path. We all had hopes that fresh eyes and ideas would change the philosophy of these two……Alas, it is just speculation, but for me, my draft baloon was just popped.
Nah, L80, too pessimistic I think … I can readily envision things turning around in maybe 7-10 years, with a bit of luck. But until Pete and John are gone, I may try to become interested in curling, or lawn bowling … anything other than more “Pete ball.”
Tony may be right and he may be wrong about the Seahawks but one things is for sure, the guy is connected and does not just spew crap. For him to say something so specific about the Seahawks plans means he has heard something and where there is smoke there is fire.
I seriously think I would throw up if this is the route they take but it would not surprise me at all. I am praying somehow Johnson , Thibodeaux, Neal or Stingley is on the board and PC/JS look at each other and say we can’t pass on elite talent at a premium position and just go to the podium.
If a trade is announced the only hope then is that a team like the Ravens nabs Penning before they can. But If Ridder is the target not sure how we dodge that bullet because no one else is moving up to get him I assure you.
Correct
Rob, this is NOT the news I wanted to wake up to this morning. I’m meh on Penning, and a big no on Ridder. If this does happen, Desai will be wondering why he took this job in the first place. I’d even overdraft Jordan Davis #9 before this plan.
I think it’s possible that they want Corral, not Ridder, and are leaking fake info to make teams think they want Ridder. Penning at #9 would be pretty bad, but I could see the hawks taking Davis at #9 and trading back into the 1st to snag Corral, which would be much better than Penning/Ridder. It seems they will probably trade back if they can get fair compensation, but if they have to stick at #9, my gut tells me it will be Davis.
If the plan is what Tony says I’m ok with a trade down for Penning and not a fan of the Ridder trade up but I can get behind them moving around to get the players they want. I used the trade chart to work out what those deals could look like.
Trade back with Philly gets the 9th pick worth 387 Seattle gets the 15th(315) pick 83 (52) and pick 124 ( 24) which adds up to 391 we could also throw in pick 229 worth 2 points.
Trade up with GB Seattle gets pick 28 and a 5th 171 217 total points for pick 40 and 72 216 points
So basically you end up picking at the end of R3 instead of early in round three and you swap a fourth for a fifth.
All for Desmond Ridder.
Disgusting
Yeah, it wouldn’t be my plan either.
Wahl, wahl, wahl; we can always hope that Azathoth, the great God of chaos (ref: Lovecraft) will reach down a hoary, cosmic paw and supper this reputed plan of Pete and Johnny’s while it’s still on the launchpad! (Seems to me like an unusual draft with plenty of potential for chaos and surprise)
Me? I’d be solely put out if it went as scripted: count me in the Penning-unfan Faction. I actually even like Ridder-he’s fun to watch. Just nowhere near at that level of resource expenditure.
But, as one with zero input into a complex system, I’m going to make like Jeff Bridges as “The Dude” and abide.
And if Pete and Johnny fubar this and next season reaches the height of dismal that some are envisioning, just keep that tar warm, and those chickens plucked. And get out there and cut a decent rail for a ride outta town. 😜
(only joking: Que Sera, Sera).
It’s possible he is reporting exactly what the Seahawks what him to. Don’t recall anyone mocking or even suggesting a DE to the Hawks in the 1st round. Could be a case of popping smoke in yet another direction (CB, T, QB) to help fuel other teams perception of what the Hawks will do in the draft and thereby letting an actual target come to them (please, oh please be Johnson!). We all know it’s the time of year for this game. But, again, we won’t know until it’s over.
Rob – Don’t let the few get you down. You do tremendous work here, not just the scouting part but, the actual writing. I truly appreciate your ability to communicate sound reasoning of opinion. It’s proper writing. The kind that seems to be lost on too many.
Im not Buying it
You hire Desai with promises and your first TWO top pick are offense
nope
Not Buying this Pauline stuff
We DID promise him bodies. I wonder if they think Nwosu and Harris count? Or they let him choose Artie Burns and…that LB…from his old roster? I don’t know how pleased I’d be with the state of the defense as it stands now. I would definitely want so early draft help.
This is why I’m getting more on board with the Jordan Davis pick “rumors”
Desai’s 3-4 needs an anchor in the middle, and Clint Hurtt is a former DL guy. I could really see them going JD, and would honestly love the pick, even if he is a 2 down guy.
Interesting trade scenario. Apparently there is going to be an early run on wr’s. If this happens greenbay may be willing to trade #22 + #28 to us for #9 so they can grab an upper lvl wr on a club controlled deal. The #9 pick is worth #22 and #28 PLUS a third rounder so if we trade 9 for 22/28 + jordan love i am okay with that. I don’t get the Desmond Ridder hype especially when a guy like Jordan Love who honestly has more potential in my opinion can be had for a 3rd rounder. Use pick 22 on penning or zion johnson, 28 on linderbaum and jordan love as the add on and I am optimistic about this. Then use the two second rounders on defense like david ojabo/sam williams/ebiketie + a lb like quay walker/channing tindall or a cornerback from alabama. 3rd rounder on a cornerback or lb (whichever we didnt grab earlier), 4th on a runningback and i am happy with this draft to be honest.
I’ve noted with an asterisk the teams in the Top 10 capable of doing something stupid with their pick, either through player selection or trade. This is not a thorough list, rather a snapshot in time and should not be used for predicting the draft or gambling purposes, but simply as a method of offering hope that a player we want might slip. Those teams capable of what might be considered “heightened levels of stupidity” are denoted by a double-asterisk. A triple-asterisk is awarded to teams capable of regular, methodical, mind-numbing draft decisions. Opinions may vary.
1. Jacksonville *
2. Detroit
3. Houston
4. Jets *
5. Giants *
6. Carolina **
7. Giants*
8. Atlanta *
9 Seattle ***
10. Jets *
A quarterback to Carolina, the Giants baling at 7 and giving GB first choice on receivers, Atlanta taking another receiver at 8 – all scenarios not so far-fetched. Seattle could be staring down the barrel at an edge or CB.
(I deleted the end of that last sentence that read “before trading down and selecting Penning,” because it defeated the purpose of this hope-building exercise.)
Did Tony Pauline have us at all linked to Jordyn Brooks? I will be very unhappy if Penning is our first pick, I am praying this is a smoke screen, I would prefer Zion. I understand your position on Ridder, many experts agree with you.
I happen to like him! I feel some of the bad tendencies and inaccuracies can be cleaned up, almost every athlete has terrible games at some point. There is much to like with Ridder- leader, very mature, athletic, competitive, amazing character!
Sadly he is moving up the boards and will cost more, this we agree on, if he was Russell Wilson round 3 range perfect, late round 1 not so much.
THE QB School draft analysis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ze3IcXbFULQ
As always Rob, thank you for your amazing content, I look forward to your draft content every year, praying the Seahawks get it right this year!
Sorry for my total ignorance, but what does WIYD stand for? I can only guess W Y D might be What You Doing, but I can’t get the I, and so maybe I’m barking up the wrong tree completely?
Oh no Seahawks what is you doin
I don’t mind Penning, but he is raw. I can’t see him as a year 1 starter. I would much rather get a plus starter at #9, even if that’s at NT or LB. Ridder might be the 4th best QB on the roster.
Not sure if you noticed Rob,
but as an alternate pick to his main hawks selection at #9 Walter Football cited Penning as an option and referenced one of the write-ups you did recently. He didn’t link to it, but called you and the site out by name.
Like others here, I hope this is a smokescreen. I’ve heard the hawks say things like “we didn’t think he would last until our next pick” so maybe they are just trying to misdirect some other teams.
I could maybe talk myself into Ridder at 40 but not via trading up.
Based on your analysis, wouldn’t be overly psyched on Penning. Maybe if they trade into the teens, but still seems like others might be better.
Very happy with the pick and with the fact Pauline went 0-2. Edge and a corner tomorrow?