Unless anything significant happens I’m not planning on writing any long form articles over Christmas. I’ll have the Rams preview podcast online later this week and the traditional Christmas mock draft.
This has been a long year — one in which I didn’t have my usual break from writing over the summer. So I intend to try and enjoy Christmas with my family.
However, I wanted to say something today.
As I noted in yesterday’s podcast (see below), if you are simply happy to enjoy the wins (in any form) — there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that. This has been a horrible year for so many people. If you take joy from the Seahawks winning, you should cherish that. Nobody has the right to tell you to be a ‘fan’ in a different way.
But that same courtesy should be offered to the people who are viewing this team with a more critical eye.
If someone wishes to raise a concern, or multiple concerns, that’s fine. Nobody has the right to tell anyone else how they ‘should’ react to a game. Or accuse them of being spoiled because, many years ago, this franchise wasn’t very good.
Even if you don’t agree or have a different perspective, a lot of the concerns raised have been valid. Whether that was the way they used their resources in the off-season, their recent use of high draft picks, the way they handled the pass rush, the current performance of Russell Wilson, the performance of the coaching staff or other issues.
Again — you may have a different take. But it doesn’t mean other people are not raising valid concerns, or that a conversation isn’t necessary.
There seems to be an increasing intolerance on here about what should or shouldn’t be discussed — or how often something is discussed.
At the end of the day, it’s a personal blog written by one individual.
I do think this is a unique website these days. Blogging isn’t as popular as it was a decade ago. Social media, particularly Twitter and YouTube, has seen many writers turn to ‘tweeters and talkers’.
It’s not a surprise really. I have a full time job and when I get home, I spend several hours of my free time crafting an article. I have to treat this place almost like a second full-time job. Firstly, as a way to indulge my passion for the Seahawks and talking about the Seahawks. Secondly, as a hobby. I enjoy writing. I started this thing in 2008 as a means of practise in case my journalism career took me in that direction. It never did and I went into broadcasting but this short-term project has developed into a 12-year labour of love.
I don’t require any financial compensation, although I am grateful to those of you who use Patreon.
The only requirement I ask of the community is to appreciate that in exchange for the time I put into this, you’re going to get my views. I’m going to write about what I want to write about. For most of the last decade that has been very positive. This year, however, I’ve personally found a lot of things that I want to challenge.
I’m not going to avoid topics simply to dodge criticism. Thus, there could be stretches where I write articles you are not interested in. Or don’t like.
I’m afraid that’s just something you’re going to have to come to terms with. I’m not going to write articles to satisfy the needs of certain individual readers. You’re going to get my views — like them or loathe them.
I felt obliged to write this in order to try and progress forward during the decisive part of the season. I fear that whatever happens over the next few weeks — positive or negative — a storm is brewing and it could get ugly.
Let’s try to avoid that.
I do enjoy watching the Seahawks, contrary to what some people seem to think suddenly. It’s my favourite thing to do, along with talking about the Seahawks.
Sometimes though I will have a different opinion to you. It might not be the most flattering take on the team. And that’s OK.
Merry Christmas to all.
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I just can’t get excited about this win or, to be honest, this team.
They held a 20-3 lead in the fourth quarter, going up against a quarterback who Washington had consigned to the dustbin a few weeks ago.
Dwayne Haskins struggled, badly, for three quarters. He threw two terrible interceptions. He looked disjointed and frankly quite hopeless.
Yet with the game virtually in the bag, somehow the Seahawks allowed him to lead two easy touchdown drives and he was on the brink of a third until L.J. Collier and Carlos Dunlap saved the day with a pair of sacks.
Had Seattle lost this game, it would’ve been even worse than the Giants debacle.
Until the late sacks, the pass rush offered nothing. It was all so easy for Washington’s rag-tag cast of characters, against another backup QB and missing their top running back.
When an opponent gets on a roll, the defense too often looks like this.
Passive, soft and vanilla.
It’s not good enough and you can start counting down the days towards major staffing changes in the off-season.
Yet the bigger concern is on offense.
Russell Wilson just isn’t right. And look — I appreciate the game plan today called for a heavy dose of running. The Seahawks had great success running, managing 181 yards on 26 rushes.
But nobody can look at how Wilson is playing currently and feel confident about his ability to turn it on in the most important game of the regular season next week.
The offense just went into a box in the fourth quarter, when they simply needed one drive to finish things.
The only real positive I even feel like mentioning is D.J. Reed. He had a terrific game. Kudos to him.
Yes the Seahawks won and yes they’re in the playoffs. Let’s be real, a post-season berth was the absolute minimum expectation this year.
The key thing is what you do in the playoffs. Nothing about how Seattle has played this season suggests they’re set to go on a tear when it matters.
Maybe next week can spark things? They have to be a lot better than this.
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Sometimes you just watch a player and he has ‘it’. Harris has ‘it’.
Simply from watching his Rivals pre-college footage you could see he stood out as a special athlete. Everything comes so naturally and dare I say — easily — to him.
There are few players who can run with his elegance at 6-2 and 230lbs. He glides, slips through tackles and can slalom his way through traffic. At SPARQ he ran a 4.16 short shuttle which is remarkable for his size. That’s the kind of time you’d expect for a 195lbs cornerback.
Yet because he carries the weight on a perfectly balanced frame, he’s tough to bring down and tackle.
Against Florida he was sensational — leading the way with 178 rushing yards on 31 carries and adding 67 receiving yards. He scored five total touchdowns.
The perfect illustration of what he can do came on a smart stop-and-slant route. He lined up outside and feigned a checkdown option, then exploded into a slant for a first down. It was great play design but it also required Harris to sell it and execute — which he did perfectly. His route running and catching skills are excellent.
His calling card is a fantastic hurdle which he’s been doing throughout his career. It’s a bit of a weird thing to say — but nobody has mastered the ‘hurdle to avoid contact and extend the play’ quite like Harris.
He’s not a punishing runner for his size but it doesn’t really matter. He’s just so elegant. He lacks Derrick Henry’s insane breakaway speed too and he’s far from a burner — only running a 4.66 at SPARQ.
Harris is a player you can construct a serious chunk of your offense around, however. He looks like a first round pick and if he lands on a contending team in the 20’s or 30’s — he could turn into an immediate star player at the next level.
Many would’ve pissed and moaned if the Seahawks drafted him early — which they won’t be able to given their lack of picks. However, he’s the kind of player who lasts into a certain range due to positional value and ends up being a huge steal. It would’ve been fun to see him paired with D.K. Metcalf as Russell Wilson’s two key weapons for the remainder of his peak.
Whoever does get Harris for a modest rookie contract for the next four or five years will be laughing about it.
DeVonta Smith should be in the Heisman discussion
For too long the Heisman has become a quarterback or running back award. Few players have dominated like Smith in 2020.
Early during the 2019 college football season we were talking about Smith — discussing how he looked like the best receiver on Alabama’s roster (ahead of Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs and Jaylen Waddle). He’s proven that to be the case this year.
Smith is practically unstoppable on slants and he has some Doug Baldwin to his game in the way he shakes defenders to get open. He has the speed to get downfield, he’s mastered his craft in terms of catching and despite his lack of size he’s a very willing blocker.
Against Florida he had another huge day with 184 yards on 15 catches and two touchdowns.
For me the Heisman should be between Smith, Harris or Trevor Lawrence.
Some thoughts on Florida’s pair of targets
Kadarius Toney had eight catches for 153 yards and a touchdown. He looked really sharp and played a big role in Florida making a game of it in the second half.
The thing about Toney, who hopefully will attend the Senior Bowl, is he needs to test well. He’s not the biggest and while he appears quick on tape — he only ran a 4.69 at SPARQ. To max out his potential, he’s going to need to run in the 4.4’s at the combine.
There are no such concerns for Kyle Pitts though who had seven catches for 129 yards and a superb touchdown. He will be a top-20 pick. The Chargers should seriously consider drafting him to give Justin Herbert a new weapon to grow with.
Haskell Garrett does it again
There are some really appealing defensive tackle options in this draft and several could come off the board by the end of round two. Nobody has been more impressive than Ohio State’s Garrett.
He is flying under the radar but he shouldn’t be. He’s a tremendous athlete who plays with fire and aggression.
He was chopped down by the right tackle on Northwestern’s touchdown play in the Big-10 Championship game. The block essentially creates the lane for the score. Yet Haskell got back to his feet immediately. In almost one complete move he was on the turf and then up again. It was such an athletic move and he almost plugged the lane.
He had a sack later on as he mopped up an outside rush but he flashes such tremendous quickness to complement his all-action style. He ran a 4.41 short shuttle at 300lbs at SPARQ. Don’t be surprised if he ends up becoming a top-40 lock but if he lasts into round two — he could be a serious option for Seattle.
Go and study Daviyon Nixon
People tend to view Mel Kiper as a bit of a comedy character. The hair, the ‘Todd, Todd, Todd’, the Frank Caliendo impression. Yet every year he often delivers a name to the masses, rated highly by scouts and not on the media radar.
Iowa’s Nixon is that guy for 2021. Kiper brought him up this week so I went to take a look and he’s a ‘wow’ player who could easily be a top-20 pick.
His gap discipline at 6-3 and 305lbs is superb. He knows what his role is, he can control the LOS or split his blocks to force runs back inside. He can afford to be patient because he’s just so nimble and athletic for his size. His frame is big, strong and powerful but he flashes quickness and he’s opportunistic. He can bully opponents and shoot gaps equally well.
Ohio State leaned on their RB2 to the tune of 331 yards on 29 carries (including two touchdowns). There are major question marks about what the Seahawks do at the position with Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde both free agents and Rashaad Penny hasn’t exactly convinced anyone he deserves to lead the rushing attack next year.
Sermon isn’t exactly what the Seahawks go for at the position. He’s 6-1 and about 215lbs which doesn’t typically fit their profile. He’s a bit upright as a runner too and that could cause some issues.
However, he ran a 4.27 short shuttle and jumped a 35 inch vertical at SPARQ and you do see that compliment of explosive traits and agility on display as he weaves through tackles.
I suspect the Seahawks will retain Carson, even if it’s only on a short-term extension. However, they need a stable of backs. They also need better players than Deejay Dallas and Travis Homer making up the numbers. It’s fine having someone like Homer who pass protects well or Dallas who plays special teams. With Carson so plagued by injury though — they can’t afford to bring people off the street (Bo Scarborough, Alex Collins, Marshawn Lynch) to run the ball because they’re not confident either can handle the load. Your running backs need to actually, you know, run.
Sermon will likely be available later on and might be worth monitoring throughout the process. It’s not a particularly deep running back class overall.
Who should be in the playoffs?
Alabama and Clemson are locked in. I have sympathy with the argument that Ohio State shouldn’t be eligible after playing only six games. They will be much fresher than any of the other contenders. However, they are legitimately one of the top four teams and any playoff scenario without them would simply be worse for us the fans.
I don’t want to see Notre Dame qualify. We see it every few years. They get on a roll and run the table, only to be embarrassed by a proper team in the playoffs or National Championship.
They deserve credit for the way they handled the ACC and the win against Clemson was exciting. Yet look at the difference when Clemson had their starting quarterback. They destroyed Notre Dame — and we don’t need to watch Alabama do the same in the playoffs.
The fourth best team might be Florida. A rematch with Alabama would be a game worth watching. However, with three losses on their slate you can’t include them unless you’re prepared to take some serious flack.
I think Texas A&M should get the final spot. They beat Florida and demolished many of their SEC opponents. They are more likely to give Alabama a game than Notre Dame.
The Covid-impacted season hasn’t really left the committee with a great array of options. I think they have a duty to give us a semi-final that can be somewhat competitive though. I don’t think Alabama vs Notre Dame will be competitive. Maybe Alabama vs Texas A&M wouldn’t be either? When they played earlier this year, it was 14-14 until a late second quarter collapse carried Alabama to a 52-24 win. The Aggies have improved since then.
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The Seahawks are three years into their reset and arguably have not taken many steps forward since 2018.
The massive use of resources this year was an attempt to accelerate improvement but, with three regular season games to go, the jury’s out on whether they succeeded.
A challenging off-season in 2020 isn’t solely responsible for the reset stalling. Their use of high picks between 2018-2020 also warrants a discussion.
2018 — the decision to draft Rashaad Penny
It was the perfect storm.
The Seahawks’ running game had collapsed in 2017. Russell Wilson led the team in rushing. Eddie Lacy had been a gigantic flop. Promising rookie Chris Carson was injured early in the season.
Seattle had lost their identity and a lot of that was tied to their inability to run the ball.
The running back class in 2018 was the strength of the draft. Multiple players were expected to be taken early, starting with Saquon Barkley in the top five.
There was an opportunity to kick start the running game with a high pick at the position. After all, Carson had only played in four career games by that point and had experienced injury issues in college. Adding a player made sense — in terms of philosophy and what was available in the draft.
Everything was set up for Seattle. They only had four picks going into the 2018 draft (and wouldn’t pick again until round four following their initial selection). Trading down from #18 was inevitable. They dropped to #27, acquiring an extra third rounder from Green Bay, and found themselves in the perfect position.
Barkely had been taken #2 overall by the Giants. Every other running back was still on the board. Between picks #27 and #43, five running backs would be drafted.
Seattle had their pick of the bunch.
In terms of executing a draft plan, it couldn’t have worked any better. They filled the gap between rounds one and four by trading down and could now select the player they truly wanted.
As we’ve discussed over the years, the Seahawks have a very particular ‘type’ of running back. All of the players they’ve drafted match a certain size and testing benchmark. For more information, read my big combine preview from February.
We’ve been able to reduce the number of potential targets every year and we’ve been able to hit on a number of drafted players as a consequence.
For example, in 2016 only two players fit Seattle’s criteria:
C.J. Prosise — 6-0, 220lbs, 35.5 inch vert, 10-1 broad Kenneth Dixon — 5-10, 215lbs, 37.5 inch vert, 10-8 broad
We were able to reduce the entire class down to two players — and identify who they would go on to select.
In 2017, only four players fit their criteria:
Christopher Carson — 6-0, 218lbs, 37 inch vert, 10-10 broad Brian Hill — 6-0, 219lbs, 34 inch vert, 10-5 broad Alvin Kamara — 5-10, 214lbs, 39.5 inch vert, 10-11 broad Joe Williams — 5-11, 210lbs, 35 inch vert, 10-5 broad
Once again, we reduced the group down and found the player they wanted.
In 2018, there was a much bigger list. This was a superior running back class, with several players who fit what the Seahawks look for:
Saquon Barkley — 6-0, 233lbs, 41 inch vert DNP broad Kerryon Johnson — 5-11, 213lbs 40 inch vert, 10-6 broad Bo Scarborough — 6-0, 228lbs, 40 inch vert, 10-9 broad Nick Chubb — 5-11, 227lbs, 38.5 inch vert, 10-8 broad John Kelly — 5-10, 216lbs, 35 inch vert, 10-0 broad Lavon Coleman — 5-10, 223lbs, 33 inch vert, 10-0 broad Rashaad Penny — 5-11, 220lbs, 32.5 inch vert, 10-0 broad Royce Freeman — 5-11, 229lbs, 34 inch vert, 9-10 broad
Once again we identified the group they would likely pick from and they selected Rashaad Penny.
Ultimately though, this was the first mistake of the reset.
One of Pete Carroll or John Schneider (I can’t remember which) referenced that Penny received their highest ‘health’ grade going into the 2018 draft. I suspect this is what separated him from the pack. Carson, Prosise, Lacy and Thomas Rawls had all been banged up. They needed a durable runner who they could depend on — just as they’d been able to depend on Marshawn Lynch.
The problem is, Penny wasn’t tested in college. He was the starter at San Diego State for only one season.
Prior to the 2017 season, he backed up Donnel Pumphrey. You might recall that Pumphrey was a 5-8, 176lbs running back. It’s not often that a running back with that stature succeeds, however Pumphrey passed Ron Dayne for the all-time NCAA Division I FBS lead in career rushing yards in his final season.
So basically Penny started for only one season in a conference where a 5-8, 176lbs running back was able to set college records for rushing. This was never enough of a challenge to properly judge his durability, yet it appears to have been one of the determining factors.
We’ll never know for sure but I suspect Seattle would’ve taken Nick Chubb had Penny been unavailable.
Chubb had everything they looked for in a running back. He had the ideal ‘Seahawks size’ at 5-11 and 227lbs. He was highly explosive — jumping a 38.5 inch vertical and a 10-8 broad jump. He was no slouch either — running a 4.52 forty and adding a 4.25 short shuttle.
His combine performance was an absolute masterclass. A dream performance you’d think from a Seahawks perspective.
On the field he was incredibly physical and tough. His running style was a perfect fit for Seattle’s offense. He dominated for multiple years in the SEC — helping lead Georgia to the National Championship game in his final season.
He’d also overcome great adversity. Chubb suffered a horrifying knee injury in 2015 but returned to play two more seasons in college. He was rusty in 2016 but the following year, he was back to his old self — as shown by a sensational performance against Oklahoma in the playoffs.
The knee injury — and the possible feedback and medical checks they’d done on it — might’ve been the difference maker. After all, Penny hadn’t experienced any setbacks like this (but he also didn’t play much until 2017).
The thing is, Chubb had already come back and played two more years. He didn’t miss any time after returning and was a picture of durability aside from that one freakish moment.
If anything you’d think the adversity he showed to fight back from that injury would give him a fantastic off-setting grade in the ‘grit’ category.
The Seahawks took Penny and Chubb was selected by the Browns eight picks later.
Chubb has missed four games in his NFL career in three years. He played a full 16 games in 2018 and 2019. He missed some time with an ankle injury this season but has since returned faster and stronger than ever.
Here’s his statline (yards/touchdowns) since returning from injury:
124-2
108-2
126-1
114-0
144-1
80-1
82-2
He has 3371 rushing yards in two and a bit seasons, 27 total touchdowns and is clearly one of the best runners in the NFL.
Cleveland’s entire offensive identity revolves around Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
Rashaad Penny meanwhile has missed 21 games in his NFL career. He has just 789 rushing yards and six total touchdowns. There’s very little confidence in him to emerge as RB1 next year, with Chris Carson set to reach free agency.
This was a very avoidable error. Chubb is basically the poster child for what a Seahawks runner should be. It’s not a mere convenience to point to a great player they passed on and say they should’ve drafted him. Chubb is everything they look for.
Had they taken him instead, the Seahawks could have the running game the Browns currently possess. They’d also have the security to not pay Carson next year because Chubb would still be under contract for two more years.
Perhaps they saw a poor mans Todd Gurley in Penny? After all — he showed real ability as a receiver and a returner at San Diego State (things we haven’t seen in Seattle). Gurley at the time was setting the NFL alight.
Yet ultimately this feels like an overthink on Seattle’s behalf. Chubb should’ve been their man and with him, they likely would’ve returned their running game to the Marshawn Lynch days — when it was the most fearsome ground attack in the NFL.
2019 — the wrong plan, badly executed
The Seahawks wanted a pass rusher and a safety.
We can say that with a great deal of confidence. For staters, those are the two positions they selected with their top two picks. Secondly, they had a gaping hole at defensive end following the Frank Clark trade and they’ve since added three safeties at great expense.
Yet the way they handled the week of the 2019 draft has arguably done more harm than anything to Seattle’s reset.
The Seahawks traded Clark to the Chiefs in the days leading up to the draft. The thought process was perfectly logical. They avoided paying Clark $20m a year and the upcoming draft class was well know for its depth of talent on the defensive line.
Theoretically the trade allowed them to add to their paltry number of picks (they didn’t have a second rounder due to the Duane Brown trade) and find a cheap replacement for Clark.
So they entered the draft with picks #21 and #29 and seemingly felt confident (based on their later comments that the board worked against them) that they were going to land a top defensive lineman from a great positional class. There’s been a few rumours that their main targets were Rashan Gary and Brian Burns.
Gary was very similar to Clark. He was highly explosive, well sized and surprisingly agile. His combine testing was superb and he would’ve been an ideal replacement based on profile.
There were significant rumours that a shoulder injury had moved Gary down many boards. Some prominent mock drafts were starting to project him in the early 20’s and he was often paired with Seattle.
Burns, meanwhile, had the classic frame for a Seahawks LEO. He was long, lean, explosive and quick. He was adept at winning 1v1 off the edge. He too would’ve been a tremendous addition.
Perhaps they received bad intel? Or maybe they just whiffed on their own internal projections? Gary was gone by pick #12 and Burns was off the board by #16. Neither got close to pick #21.
With both players gone, the Seahawks traded down to #30.
A lot of people have speculated that by moving down they missed out on Montez Sweat and Jerry Tillery. I don’t buy that, personally.
Sweat’s heart condition was a serious concern and I wouldn’t blame any team for taking him off their board. He was being projected as a top-10 pick prior to the discovery of the defect, so if the Seahawks were prepared to select him they probably would’ve taken Sweat at #21 (especially given their huge need for a pass rusher).
Tillery never struck me as a Seahawks type of player. He had an odd character and flattered to deceive on the field. He had the physical skills but I’m not convinced Seattle were ever seriously interested in him.
I’m speculating a lot here — but I think Gary and Burns coming off the board early was a crushing blow. There were other D-liners available at #21 and they were desperate to add one. It made no sense to trade down if they really wanted Sweat or Tillery. I am convinced that they pinned their hopes on Gary or Burns being available and all the talk of the draft not going there way was directly linked to the pair.
Perhaps if Gary makes it to #16, Burns is available at #21? Maybe he would’ve just lasted all the way to #21 himself? We’ll never know.
Moving down to #30 feels like resignation, in hindsight. They’d missed out, so they were going to trade down and see the lay of the land at the end of round one.
I think, once the two pass rushers had gone off the board, they had their eye on Johnathan Abram. Clearly they wanted a safety. Abram tested superbly at the combine. He was a tone-setter at Mississippi State and he played with the style they like at the position.
An ideal first round could’ve been getting one of Burns or Gary and then Abram. That might’ve been their ‘plan A’.
When the Raiders took Abram with the 27th pick, all three were gone.
That is my best guess as to why they looked so gloomy in their press conference after the first round. They’d come out empty handed, missing on their targets — days after trading away the one good pass rusher on the roster.
This is the first mistake from the 2019 draft. They misjudged the situation and projected poorly. With picks #21 and #29 they should’ve made sure they landed at least one of their targets — even if it meant moving up a few spots or simply taking someone they really wanted at #21. There was a reason why they looked so miserable in the press conference after. I can’t believe there wasn’t anyone available at #21, or a viable trade-up option, to avoid this scenario.
The second mistake was not being prepared to pivot away from their targeted positional needs. Once the draft had started to work against them, the reaction needed to be to take a breath and look at who the best players available were.
There was still a lot of talent available — particularly at receiver. As much as the D-line class received rave reviews in 2019, wide out was also considered a strength.
Quality offensive linemen were also available.
I think the Seahawks were so focused on addressing their defensive end and safety needs that they simply selected the next players on their board instead of drafting for value. Thus, you end up with L.J. Collier and Marquise Blair.
For what it’s worth, I liked both Collier and Blair going into that draft. Collier had a sensational Senior Bowl and his tape was good. Blair was a head hunter at safety who packed a punch and he had plus athletic skills.
I’m not sure either warranted being the foundation for your entire draft, however — and they might’ve been available much later on.
Rather than take the next best player at those two specific positions to fill needs, Seattle should’ve looked at other areas. For example — Deebo Samuel and A.J. Brown left the board in the range Seattle was picking in. Terry McLaurin went later — but we spent a ton of time before the draft discussing his suitability as a late first round target.
All three fit Seattle’s preferred physical traits at receiver. As did D.K. Metcalf, who they thankfully took later on to salvage the draft class.
Had the Seahawks accepted their fate, they could’ve easily had Samuel, Brown or McLaurin (who, as it happens, received a rave review from Pete Carroll during yesterday’s press conference).
Again, this isn’t just me handpicking good players and saying they should’ve been drafted. Every year we discuss what Seattle looks for at receiver. They have to run in the 4.4’s or faster. Samuel, Brown and McLaurin did that, unlike N’Keal Harry who was taken just before all three. We talked a lot about Samuel in particular due to his amazing performance in Mobile. He and McLaurin were arguably the two standout players at the Senior Bowl that year.
Imagine a situation where the Seahawks had taken one of Samuel, Brown or McLaurin, then taken an interior offensive lineman such as Elgton Jenkins or Erik McCoy, before trading up for Metcalf? The receiver position would now be set up for years to come. Russell Wilson would be pinching himself. They’d have a long term solution at center or left guard too.
Sure, they wouldn’t have been able to add a defensive end or safety. So what? They started the season with Tedric Thompson and Bradley McDougald anyway — so there was no need to force the Blair pick. They could’ve pushed that need into 2020, especially given they then traded for Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams.
On the defensive line, they immediately signed Ziggy Ansah after the draft because they knew Collier wasn’t an immediate impact player. I suspect they would’ve traded for Jadeveon Clowney anyway, even if Collier didn’t get hurt in training camp.
There really wasn’t any reason to stick so strictly to the two positions once the board went against Seattle in 2019. The end result is thus — Collier looks like a thoroughly average, rotational player who is seeing his snaps decrease:
For all the promise Blair has shown in flashes, the Seahawks were clearly unconvinced by his starting potential (thus the Diggs & Adams trades) and he was moved to nickel before his injury.
The double act of trading Clark and then spending two high picks in the way they did is one of the biggest reasons why the reset has not guided Seattle back to the top.
It’s not unrealistic at all to imagine a scenario where the Seahawks drafted Nick Chubb, kept Clark and then drafted Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown or Terry McLaurin to go with D.K. Metcalf. Wishful thinking? Sure. Unrealistic? Not at all.
These are the kind of moves that the 2010-12 Seahawks would’ve nailed. Get those two drafts right and this team could’ve been truly special.
2020 — desperation and the Darrell Taylor pick
Both Schneider and Carroll spelled it out numerous times. They needed to fix the pass rush. That was the priority.
Seattle’s 2019 pass rush was as bad as their 2017 running game. They were a one-man band, relying totally on Jadeveon Clowney for any kind of pressure. Ziggy Ansah was a huge bust. Quinton Jefferson offered a bit here and there. The rest? Ineffective.
They said retaining Clowney was a priority. I believe them. I think they truly intended to re-sign him and the rest of the off-season would follow from there.
I think they calculated, correctly, that his market wouldn’t be what he expected. The Seahawks are very good at working the room at the combine, finding out information. I suspect nobody out-works John Schneider in Indianapolis.
Their plan made sense. Offer Clowney a deal that could be the best on the table but ultimately won’t be what he expects. Then lean on the strong relationship they established to ‘recruit’ him back to Seattle.
Nobody could’ve predicted what happened next. Clowney’s unwillingness to sign any contract below what he felt he was worth was an unprecedented move. I don’t blame the Seahawks for not anticipating it and I don’t blame Clowney for sticking to his guns. It was simply an unfortunate situation.
Sadly, it seemed to negatively impact both parties.
Clowney’s stance didn’t help his bargaining position. He simply cost himself money and I suspect the truncated nature of the whole saga had a negative impact on his play in the end.
For Seattle, they were stuck. They couldn’t splash out on other players because they wanted Clowney and knew the minute they spent big money on others, retaining him was impossible. They kept money available pretty much throughout the off-season on the off-chance he would sign. It never happened.
It meant that they missed out on a host of other pass rushers, ended up frittering money away on cheap deals in order to try and save something for Clowney — only to end up using a lot of their remaining money on other bargain bin signings.
Anyone who was prepared to be honest about the situation knew Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin were not adequate additions to fix a pass rush. The Seahawks needed more but following the first flush of free agency it wasn’t obvious how they were going to get it. Either they’d have to find a resolution with Clowney, or they’d have to try and sign someone like Everson Griffen. Or they could look to the draft.
It wasn’t a good draft class for pass rushers. The options weren’t great, even with the Seahawks owning three picks in the first two rounds.
Yet there was one player who clearly appealed.
Tennessee’s Darrell Taylor looked like a Seahawks pass rusher. His chiselled frame, his unnatural ability to bend the arc and straighten to the quarterback. This was exactly what the Seahawks were looking for. He was nearly 6-4 and 267lbs with 33 inch arms. He was long, lean, athletic and powerful.
The only problem is he’d suffered a serious leg injury that required a titanium rod to be inserted into his leg.
He wasn’t able to perform at the Senior Bowl or combine as a consequence. Making matters worse was the emergence of a global pandemic. Teams would test and probe an injury like this for weeks before the draft. Now, information was severely limited.
Draft insiders speculated whether Taylor would go undrafted as a consequence. There was so little known about the injury, it was unclear whether he’d even pass a medical. While there was no doubting his talent and potential — if he couldn’t even get on the field to practise, nothing else mattered.
I remember doing several podcasts during draft season where I was asked about Taylor and the reaction was usually one of shock when I mentioned he could go undrafted. This was a unique year for the NFL, with teams having far less information than they’d ever had before.
I assumed a lot of teams wouldn’t have Taylor on their draft boards. I thought for weeks he’d be a day three pick at best. It was only in the build up to the draft, when Pete Schrager mocked him to Seattle in round one, that the conversation flipped.
Incidentally, who is telling Pete Schrager who the Seahawks are going to draft? And why? If he knows, presumably other teams will know? Likewise, why did Chris Mortensen know enough to tell Russell Wilson he was going to be drafted by Seattle in 2012? I digress, but still.
I think the Seahawks felt a lot of pressure to get a pass rusher during the 2020 draft. Clowney was still available and there was enough cap space to bring him back. Carroll spoke after the draft and went to great lengths to say the door was still open for a return. Adding a cheap rookie pass rusher was cost-effective insurance. It did make sense, in fairness, if they wanted to leave the door open for Clowney.
Yet the decision to target Taylor specifically — so much so that they traded up for him — was clearly a misjudgement.
He’s been on the NFI list all year. Carroll recently revealed his leg is structurally healed — yet he’s still not practising because he doesn’t feel right.
This isn’t a typical return like you’d see with a player coming back from an ACL or a high ankle sprain. Taylor has a titanium rod in his leg. I can only imagine how mentally challenging it must be to feel confident enough to play such an aggressive sport at a pro level in this situation.
His rookie season is a write-off. The hope has to be that in a years time he’ll not only be mentally ready to return but that he’ll physically be ready too. He won’t have played football for two years and the leg will always be a potential issue.
Spending two high picks on Taylor was reckless and far too risky this year. Had the Seahawks been able to do all of the usual medical checks in a non-Covid year, I’d have more sympathy with them. This feels like a desperate pick in hindsight. Desperate because of the situation with the pass rush post-free agency, desperate because of what happened with Clowney and desperate because they zoned in on a player with major red flags and traded up for him anyway.
If he never plays — and let’s be honest, we have to at least consider that a possibility — or if he struggles to regain his best form after this long layoff, the Seahawks will have wasted two high picks in the year where they needed a strong off-season to push them back into contention.
It would also mean that four first and second round picks were spent on Collier, Blair and Taylor in two drafts. That’s not a good return so far, with little cause for optimism in the future. It’s especially disappointing when you see who else was available.
The Seahawks seem to get themselves into trouble when they go into a draft with a massive glaring need. Their best picks in recent years — D.K. Metcalf and Damien Lewis — have been opportunistic moves. Really talented players lasting longer than they should’ve done and you capitalise.
You could even make that case for Jordyn Brooks. He has shown some flashes of talent. Seattle didn’t desperately need a linebacker this year but felt that was a strong position at the end of round one.
Their inability to solve problems in free agency to allow the draft to come to them has been a sticking point in 2019 and 2020 and is one of the main reasons why the reset has failed to deliver a much improved team.
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Jamal Adams recorded sack number 8.5 against the Jets
A lot of the talk after the Jets game was about Jamal Adams claiming the record for sacks by a defensive back. Pete Carroll said they broke from tradition to deliver Adams a game ball. The player himself talked passionately about the record and clearly takes a lot of pride in his achievement.
As we’ve been discussing recently though, along with all the high praise for Adams (who is clearly a very accomplished blitzer) there also needs to be some context.
Going into the Jets game, Adams had blitzed 77 times in eight games. He’s averaging 9.6 blitzes a game, which is by far the most of any player in the league.
The only other defensive back in the top-20 for blitzing is Budda Baker. He blitzes 5.3 times a game — nearly half as much as Adams. Keanu Neal blitzes 1.6 times a game.
“He’s getting a lot of opportunities you know, we’re giving him some shots. I heard somebody say he averages up close to 10 rushes a game. That’s a lot of rushes for a DB.”
The media is stuck on ‘wow wow wow wow’ (said in the Screen Rant pitch-meeting style — check it out on YouTube) when actually, we need to look closely at how the sacks are being achieved.
For his 10 rushes per game Adams had 7.5 sacks and 21 pressures before week 14. On average he creates a sack and 2.5 pressures.
The Seahawks have manufactured production for Adams in a way I don’t think anyone has ever done in the NFL before. Not at defensive back.
The result is he has earned a new record.
For example — last year in New York (when he was playing for the blitz-happy Gregg Williams), he only averaged 6.4 blitzes per game. It’s quite something that the Seahawks are blitzing him more than Williams did.
Of course, it’s their duty to get the most out of a player who cost so much via trade. You could also argue the Seahawks badly needed to manufacture sack production given how poor the pass rush was early in the season.
Blitzing comes with a consequence, however.
Take this play yesterday:
Sam Darnold snaps the ball on 3rd and 4 with 18 seconds remaining in the first half. The Jets were at their own 37-yard line and well out of field goal range.
The Seahawks have a defensive lineman drop into coverage and they blitz Adams and a linebacker.
The dropping D-liner covers the space also occupied by Bobby Wagner and for some reason Ugo Amadi. There are basically three players in close proximity with nobody covering Braxton Berrios on a crossing route.
It’s a total bust.
Firstly, there was absolutely no need to call this blitz. Perhaps the Seahawks felt they could be especially aggressive against an 0-12 Jets team with a 20-point lead? Even so, the call should’ve ended up costing them points (and would’ve done if Sergio Castillo didn’t miss his third field goal in one half).
Secondly, the defensive call is so badly executed.
Right before the snap Wagner is yelling and pointing at Amadi, seemingly instructing him to get over to the right hand side. He is pointing directly at Berrios and seems to identify the looming problem.
However, this only occurs with six seconds left on the play clock. The Jets didn’t snap the ball quickly to catch Seattle off guard, so it’s unclear why they were disorganised.
When Amadi doesn’t switch positions, Wagner turns his back on the line of scrimmage and looks to Quandre Diggs to identify Berrios as needing to be covered. In his desperate attempt to avert the danger, Wagner isn’t even facing the football when the ball is snapped. It’s a complete coverage bust — and the Seahawks (or at least Wagner) could see what was coming.
The play went for about 35-yards.
Carroll’s defense has always been known for its relative simplicity. The focus is on execution and having players who can tilt the field, doing their jobs well.
I suspect the heavy blitzing is causing plays like the one above. Instead of being able to sit in a fairly basic coverage, with everyone properly lined up and ready and knowing their jobs, they are rushing and dropping from different angles and too many players are making basic errors.
I’ve only produced one example. I suspect, given the way the defense played for large stretches of this season with many explosive plays conceded, it’ll be easy to find others. The problems might also extend to the running game.
So while blitzing a lot is helping Adams tally up the sacks — it might also be causing blown coverages like this.
This is why I think ‘Adams sack-fest 2020′ needs to be discussed in more detail. Getting a sack and 2.5 pressures per game from 10 blitzes is a decent return. What’s happening on the other nine plays a game though if he doesn’t get home? Because you can still get burned on a pressure.
How often are plays like the one above occurring because the Seahawks are doing something that even established veterans like Wagner aren’t used to?
A defense that was always built on rushing with four to allow everyone else to play fast and loose now appears to be a tricky, aggressive and more complex system.
None of this is Jamal Adams’ fault. If the Seahawks dial up a blitz, he’s going to blitz. He is very good at it. He’s always been good at it.
Seattle traded for him, at great expense, and while they’re quite happy to wax lyrical about his sack record now — don’t you have to wonder if they’re creating problems for themselves too?
You have to blitz Adams a lot to make the most of him and the investment made. That’ll be even more the case if/when he signs a massive contract extension.
Does it suit the Seahawks though? Is a sack a game worth it if you’re also confusing players and contradicting a well worn philosophy?
The 3-4 teams are arguably better equipped to deal with creative blitzing. The use of four linebackers, with the two outside guys traditionally adept at dropping into coverage, means it’s easier to be creative. You have three big bodies up front and you can send one or two rushers, with other players filling in behind.
A 4-3 front, even a 4-3 under, simply has a different mentality. Much more of the focus is on the defensive line to create pressure. There’s still blitzing, of course, but not as much.
The top six blitzing teams in the NFL before week 14 were all 3-4 teams.
You might argue the Seahawks should switch to a 3-4 formation. That’s easier said than done. Just ask Mike Nolan and the 2020 Dallas Cowboys. Furthermore, do you really want to completely change your scheme and philosophy for one player? Even if you’ve paid a fortune for him?
The thing is, they’ve already kind of done that. The Seahawks’ defense is totally unrecognisable since this trade.
Those are the key stats, for me. When the Seahawks had Frank Clark’s 13.5 sack season and could rely a bit more on a four-man rush, they blitzed half as much as they currently are but still had a superior sack percentage. Now that they’ve doubled their blitzing, they’re still not getting home as often — even with Adams blitzing 10 times a game.
It’s absolutely right that he receives praise for his new record — this isn’t about him as an individual or a player. It’s about the Seahawks. It’s about what they want to be on defense. It’s about discussing the consequences that come with blitzing your safety 10 times a game.
I’m not aware of any website that charts blitz efficiency (please pass on the details if you do). Without that information, however, any discussion about the effectiveness of all this blitzing feels incomplete.
Certainly it makes a victory lap about the trade and the sacks a bit premature.
Because let’s be right here — if you send your safety on an (often unblocked) blitz time and time again — he will produce sacks. If you throw to the same receiver 10-15 times a game, they have a chance to produce. If you give your running back 30-40 carries a game, they have an opportunity to produce.
As Carroll noted on the radio this morning, he’s getting an unusual number of opportunities. Blitzing a safety 10-times a game is unheard of.
The key for the Seahawks is to determine whether they can possibly lower this number a bit and still retain his sack numbers? In time, will Adams settle into a slightly more orthodox role and is that the best way to use him?
Is this challenge all going to be worth about $18m a year, on top of what you’ve already paid in picks? Will the pressure to feature him because of the investment become a bit of a lead weight for the franchise if they can’t find a way to complement their typical scheme while doubling their blitzing?
Those are questions that’ll need to be addressed in the off-season. For now, Adams will be relied upon to continue blitzing — especially if Carlos Dunlap’s foot injury prevents him from playing.
They’ll certainly need the blitzing and the sacks (minus the coverage busts) against the Rams in week 16.
A tale of two quotes…
Shaquill Griffin on 10th December:
“We came in taking the team lightly, just being totally honest. In this league, you can lose to anybody if you don’t play right. I feel like we took that game lightly.”
Jamal Adams on 13th December:
“We don’t take opponents lightly. Each week is the same.”
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The Seahawks achieved their first blowout victory in what feels like forever. It was a glorious sight to see Geno Smith trotting onto the field, knowing there wouldn’t be any fourth quarter stresses and strains this week.
This was a game that needed to be won handsomely and it was. No messing about. No unnecessarily close scoreline. Just a hammering.
That said, the New York Jets were an utter shambles.
They appear destined to go 0-16 and frankly don’t deserve to be rewarded with Trevor Lawrence.
Aside from a few functioning drives and one fantastic interception from Marcus Maye, they were hopeless.
They missed three field goals before half-time to suck any energy out of their team and came out in the second half like they were all preoccupied by which movie they’d watch on the plane-ride home.
They extended drives for the Seahawks with stupid penalties and ill-discipline, appeared to have no answers on either side of the ball and they just lack talent.
They are a mess. I feel sorry for Clemson’s superstar QB if they’re going to pin all their hopes on him salvaging anything from this.
Seattle’s best moments included D.K. Metcalf’s superb route on his touchdown and some impressive running from Chris Carson. They ran the ball well overall and produced big numbers.
Yet they also dropped three easy interceptions, Russell Wilson still doesn’t feel like he’s returning to top form and there were some other sloppy moments.
Ultimately the game felt flat for all concerned. The Jets want to keep losing for Lawrence. Seattle just wants to roll on to the next three games where their season will be decided.
It felt like a bye week for the fans. No need for the booze or ibuprofen this week (whichever you turn to). There wasn’t much to worry about, or any real excitement. I’m not sure even a 40-3 cleanses the disappointment of last weeks loss, especially after Arizona hammered the Giants in New York earlier today.
Washington’s fearsome defensive line will be a completely different challenge next week. Seattle will need to win that game though because guess who the Rams are playing next week?
The New York Jets.
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#1 New York Jets — Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson)
#2 Jacksonville — Justin Fields (QB, Ohio State)
#3 Cincinnati — Penei Sewell (T, Oregon)
#4 Dallas — Shaun Wade (CB, Ohio State)
#5 LA Chargers — Ja’Marr Chase (WR, LSU)
#6 Philadelphia — Micah Parsons (LB, Penn State)
#7 Carolina — Zach Wilson (QB, BYU)
#8 Atlanta — Patrick Surtain II (CB, Alabama)
#9 Miami (v/HOU) — Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB, Notre Dame)
#10 Denver — Trey Lance (QB, North Dakota State)
#11 Washington — Kyle Pitts (TE, Florida)
#12 Detroit — DeVonta Smith (WR, Alabama)
#13 Chicago — Rondale Moore (WR, Purdue)
#14 San Francisco — Dayo Odeyingbo (DE, Vanderbilt)
#15 New England — Davis Mills (QB, Stanford)
#16 Arizona — Wyatt Davis (G, Ohio State)
#17 Baltimore — Gregory Rousseau (DE, Miami)
#18 Las Vegas — Patrick Jones (DE, Pittsburgh)
#19 Minnesota — Walker Little (T, Stanford)
#20 Tampa Bay — Kwity Paye (DE, Michigan)
#21 New York Giants — Jaycee Horn (CB, South Carolina)
#22 Miami — Travis Etienne (RB, Clemson)
#23 Indianapolis — Alex Leatherwood (T, Alabama)
#24 Tennessee — Caleb Farley (CB, Virginia Tech)
#25 New York Jets (v/SEA) — Jaylen Waddle (WR, Alabama)
#26 Jacksonville (v/LAR) — Pat Freiermuth (TE, Penn State)
#27 Cleveland — Azeez Ojulari (DE, Georgia)
#28 Buffalo — Josh Myers (C, Ohio State)
#29 Green Bay — Baron Browning (LB, Ohio State)
#30 Kansas City — Ronnie Perkins (DE, Oklahoma)
#31 New Orleans — Dylan Moses (LB, Alabama)
#32 Pittsburgh — Rasheed Walker (T, Penn State)
Second round
#33 New York Jets — Najee Harris (RB, Alabama)
#34 Jacksonville — Christian Darrisaw (T, Virginia Tech)
#35 Cincinnati — Rashawn Slater (G, Northwestern)
#36 LA Chargers — Elijah Molden (CB, Washington)
#37 Dallas — Andre Cisco (S, Syracuse)
#38 Philadelphia — Carlos Basham (DE, Wake Forest)
#39 Atlanta — Jevon Holland (S, Oregon)
#40 Miami — Rashod Bateman (WR, Minnesota)
#41 Denver — Zaven Collins (LB, Tulsa)
#42 Carolina — Obinna Eze (T, Memphis)
#43 Detroit — Alim McNeill (DT, NC State)
#44 Chicago — Mac Jones (QB, Alabama)
#45 San Francisco — Aaron Banks (G, Notre Dame)
#46 Washington — Ambry Thomas (CB, Michigan)
#47 New England — Monty Rice (LB, Georgia)
#48 Arizona — Jaelen Phillips (DE, Miami)
#49 Las Vegas — Jaylen Twyman (DT, Pittsburgh)
#50 Baltimore — Tylan Wallace (WR, Oklahoma State)
#51 Jacksonville (v/MIN) — Jordan Davis (DT, Georgia)
#52 Tampa Bay — Paris Ford (S, Pittsburgh)
#53 New York Giants — Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, USC)
#54 Indianapolis — Jake Ferguson (TE, Wisconsin)
#55 Tennessee — Chris Olave (WR, Ohio State)
#56 Miami — Tutu Atwell (WR, Louisville)
#57 Seattle — Haskell Garrett (DT, Ohio State)
#58 LA Rams — Nick Bolton (LB, Missouri)
#59 Buffalo — Jalen Mayfield (T, Michigan)
#60 Cleveland — Jay Tufele (DT, USC)
#61 Green Bay — Terrace Marshall Jr (WR, LSU)
#62 Kansas City — Javian Hawkins (RB, Louisville)
#63 New Orleans — Nico Collins (WR, Michigan)
#64 Pittsburgh — Kellen Mond (QB, Texas A&M)
Notes
— Stanford quarterback Davis Mills is simply terrific. I wouldn’t take any mock draft seriously right now that didn’t include him in the first round conversation. He has a fantastic skill set that will appeal to teams, he’s accurate and a natural passer.
— I spent some time watching Wyatt Davis this week and he is legit. I’ve moved him up considerably and he has a chance to be an interior offensive lineman who goes very early in the draft.
— One other thing I did this week was go back and watch a whole host of footage from the SPARQ and recruiting events from a few years ago. You learn a lot about players watching them in this environment — how they handle 1v1’s, their personalities, how other players respond to them. Here’s what I learnt this week. Alex Leatherwood is a bad dude with an incredible nasty edge. Walker Little is naturally gifted, athletic and talented. He will go earlier than people think. Marvin Wilson (not included in this mock) just had so many incredible reps on the D-line and his athletic qualities for his size are rare. Micah Parsons played linebacker at Penn State but he could play anywhere. Defensive end, running back, receiver. He is one of the most gifted players to come along in a long time.
Thoughts on the Seahawks pick
I noted recently that with such limited draft stock in 2021, the Seahawks are probably going to have to make a big-upside pick in round two. They need to try and find a hidden gem in the range where they’ve previously selected Frank Clark and D.K. Metcalf.
As with Clark and Metcalf though, there also needs to be a reason for that player to last.
Haskell Garrett was shot in the face a few weeks ago. Somehow, he not only survived but made a miraculous return to the football field where he’s played lights out in Ohio State’s limited season. In their last game against Michigan State, he tipped a pass at the LOS and caught the rebound for a pick-six:
What a play by Haskell Garrett to tip this pass and then track it and catch it for a TD. Big man has awareness and hands. pic.twitter.com/arjxrd5qKg
Garrett ran a 4.41 short shuttle at SPARQ at 298lbs which is an outstanding time and he added a 5.13 forty.
He has ideal size (6-2, 300lbs) for leverage and he can control blocks at the POA, disengage and explode into the backfield. He plays with reasonable gap discipline and is rarely moved in the running game. He has the quickness and agility you need to see from interior linemen to factor as a pass rusher at the next level.
In all honesty there’s a reasonable chance he will move up boards during the pre-draft process and out of range for Seattle. If he attends the Senior Bowl, he could be one of the stars in Mobile. However, if he’s available in the late second he offers a chance to add talent and upside to the D-line.
It’s also worth noting that Jarran Reed is due $13.5m next year. Reed is a perfectly decent starting defensive tackle but nobody can argue he’s worth $13.5m. Either the Seahawks need to extend his deal to lower the cap hit or they should consider moving on.
Money is going to be tight. You have to make sure you’re investing in the right people.
He could also be a trade candidate. You won’t get much in the deal but it could, at least, enable the Seahawks to add to the three or four picks they are scheduled to have.
Even if they retain Reed, he’ll be a free agent in 2022 and so will Poona Ford. Planning ahead at the position would be wise, especially if they can acquire a player as talented as Garrett.
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Shaquill ‘sometimes we take opponents lightly’ Griffin
“We came in taking the team lightly, just being totally honest. In this league, you can lose to anybody if you don’t play right. I feel like we took that game lightly, and our focus point now is just refocusing – treating every team the same, like a championship game that we preach about. We’ve just got to live by it.”
— Shaquill Griffin, speaking on Thursday
So much for ‘always compete’.
Perhaps Shaquill Griffin was trying to avoid a clichéd, nondescript answer? It wouldn’t be the first time an athlete tried a little too hard to take responsibility for an embarrassing loss.
Even so, that answer above was difficult to digest and it seriously calls into question the mentality of the team.
Pete Carroll’s whole philosophy is based on competition. When a player comes out after a crushing, unexpected defeat and says they ‘took their opponents lightly’ — that is the opposite of a competitors mindset.
It’s even worse when you consider what was at stake.
With five games to go and with the NFC West and #1 seed in the NFC still very much in their sights, Griffin claims the Seahawks weren’t particularly prepared for the Giants.
It’ll be fine — it’s just Colt McCoy.
They’re 4-7.
They play in the NFC Least.
And guess what? The Giants came into Seattle and punched the Seahawks in the mouth. They were the superior team — even without their quarterback or Saquon Barkley. They had a game-plan that made sense, they executed better and they were more physical.
They wanted it more.
Now the #1 seed looks like a pipe dream. The Seahawks are relegated to second place in the NFC West. They’ve wasted a 5-0 start by going 3-4 in the following seven games. Unless they avoid dropping to 1-6 against the Rams in week 16, they’ll be staring at a record of one NFC West title in six years. Six years.
The worst thing is — Griffin’s words match what we saw on the field.
After the 24-0 loss to Pittsburgh in 2011, Carroll vowed never to let a team bully the Seahawks again. They set about creating a team in the mould of the Steelers and Ravens. Physicality, punishing hits and a combination of great running and a brilliant defense were to be the catalyst for a change in Seattle’s fortunes.
They emphatically achieved it.
Yet by the end of the 2015 season, John Schneider was speaking of the need to re-create the bully. They wanted to be the tone-setter once more, after a year in which they failed to intimidate opponents.
Five years on, they’re still not the bully. Not even close.
They don’t punch anyone in the mouth. They don’t seem to leave any opponent reeling. Rebuilding teams such as the Giants come to Seattle and get after them.
And now we have a supposed key starter explaining away a hugely disappointing loss as ‘taking a team lightly’ when the season was on the line.
If ever there was a statement to undermine everything Carroll strives for — this is it.
Sure, the occasional tough run by Chris Carson or a D.K. Metcalf stiff-arm might make you think this is still a tough team. But they aren’t. They are finesse. Now we know they can, occasionally, look beyond an opponent too.
10 years into the Carroll era and three-years into the reset, isn’t this just the most disappointing quote you’ve seen in a long time?
And what exactly does it say about the future direction of this team?
They aren’t going to prove anything against the Jets. No amount of flexing will make a win against the NFL’s worst team feel like a comeback.
The Seahawks have three games — Washington, LA and San Francisco — to prove themselves. I think they have to now. Otherwise they deserve the criticism that will follow.
It wasn’t the only maddening quote this week.
Brian Schottenheimer also confessed he wishes the Seahawks had adjusted more quickly against the Giants and taken more of what they were given underneath.
These thoughts were more or less echoed by Carroll and Russell Wilson.
Are we living in bizarro world?
The offense scored three points in the first half. Three.
You don’t need years of coaching experience or a lengthy playing career to see what they were doing on offense wasn’t working.
Yet they kept going — again and again. They constantly looked for the big shot downfield. Wilson kept holding onto the ball and subsequently getting hit. The Giants mastered their coverage with two deep safety’s (something that has been an issue for multiple weeks already) and the end result was a shambles.
The absolute minimum they needed to do was adjust. They shouldn’t be speaking about adjusting quicker. Making the wrong adjustment? Anyone can live with that.
Not adjusting quickly enough — or at all? That’s unacceptable.
Championship caliber teams don’t fail to adjust and they don’t take opponents lightly.
It’s as simple as that.
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This is a guest post written by Curtis Allen for the blog. Curtis is well known within the community as ‘Cha’ in the comments section. We’ve all enjoyed his quarter report cards and game specific watch-points. Many thanks to him for putting this together.
There’s no disputing 2020 has been a turbulent year for the Seahawks.
The stunning amount of highs and lows witnessed this season would make for a fascinating case study if they weren’t so stressful for their passionate fan base.
Many of the challenges they’ve faced this year have been of their own making.
The Seahawks have once again not been able to connect their end of season roster, their offseason moves and their game planning and execution with a consistent, targeted vision.
Putting a team on the field that can play in a way that delivers sustainable success has been a monumental struggle for years now, one that has left fans unfulfilled.
This season, Pete Carroll has taken to using the word “uncharacteristic” to describe his team’s play so often people are wondering if he understands the meaning of the word.
The last calendar year has been well documented on the blog and in the comments section. The Seahawks ended 2019 with Russell Wilson, short on weapons, dragging a battered and bruised team into the playoffs. Their top three running backs were injured. They had a porous defense undermined by an anaemic pass rush.
The end result was predictable.
To their credit, the front office noticed this. They went into the offseason with clear needs and were armed with a handsome amount of cap room and a full complement of draft picks.
They came back with… a team that relies far too much on its quarterback, with three running backs that are injured and a porous defense undermined by an anaemic pass rush.
— Through 12 games Russell Wilson has been responsible for a staggering 84.3% of the team’s total yards of offense. That dwarfs his 74.3% number of 2019.
— The Seahawks spent about 18% of their available cap room on tight ends. Yet through 12 games the group has produced only 5.45 catches and 3.81 first downs per game and three total TD’s. For comparison, Will Dissly had four touchdowns in 5 games last year.
— Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde and Travis Homer have missed 13 games this year due to injury and have had severely reduced workloads in several others. Carson has yet to log 100 carries this season.
— Through eight games, the Seahawks defense was on pace to shatter the all-time yards conceded mark and had recorded only 19 sacks on an astounding 366 pass attempts, or 45.75 attempts per game.
All of this has placed considerable pressure on Russell Wilson and the offense — and it shows. To the point where now, just as the defense is finally showing some signs of being even a marginally competent unit, the offense is behaving like a rubber band that has been stretched so many times it has lost its elasticity and cannot take its original shape.
It should not be a surprise to anyone that this team has returned very similar results again this year. Similar process returns similar results. The old Henry Ford quote seems appropriate here:
“If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always got.”
Russell Wilson looks tentative and unsure of himself.
Pete Carroll is trying to will this team to success by cramming ‘believe’ into as many sentences as possible.
The running backs are being revered for their toughness one week and the next are being limited in their reps in the name of caution.
Raves by the coaching staff about Carlos Dunlap’s play and how the team ‘finally has a pass rusher that can get to the quarterback’ and ‘what a relief it is to get pass rush in non-blitzing situations’ has betrayed their early-season protestations that cheap part time players can fill the massive void in their pass rush.
Put another way, they’re reaping what they’ve sown. Yet again.
How can they break the cycle? How can they restore that singular vision that focuses their efforts and leads to sustainable success?
The 2021 offseason starts right now
The Seahawks need to look very closely at their team philosophy, their current roster makeup and the individual and unit results in the next four games (and hopefully the playoffs). They have a minimum of four games to get a real-world look at the results of the way this team was built in 2020, the players that are newly acquired and/or have been injured and are now coming online, what the coaching staff has done to point their players in the way of success and examine the very structure and identity of both the offense and defense.
Why such urgency?
This offseason is going to present clear challenges. They have minimal draft picks and are projecting to have very little usable cap space to augment the current roster that is under contract for 2021.
Major decisions need to be made about new acquisitions Jamal Adams and Carlos Dunlap. The long-term future of expensive veterans like Bobby Wagner need to be examined. And owing to their past couple of offseasons, they have precious few immediately available resources to draw from.
Every team in the NFL is preparing for the 2021 offseason in some way, shape or form at the moment — but this team is unique.
The Seattle Seahawks may present the biggest paradox in the NFL — they enjoy consistent relative success, yet they regularly have numerous and serious fundamental question marks that need addressing.
Thankfully, there is good news in all of this.
They have a franchise quarterback in his prime years and locked down for three more seasons.
Pete Carroll has the security of a five-year contract extension.
They have a large amount of salary cap room in 2022.
They have a soft local press and general fan base, thanks to an enormous amount of goodwill built up and star players that are extremely likeable and rooted in the community.
They have an ownership group that will likely sell the franchise in that five-year window and who may have a very enticing incentive for success. How much more value would the franchise gain if they pick up a second Lombardi trophy shortly before going to market?
The Seahawks are king in Seattle but my goodness — imagine what a second championship would do? You think the Hawks run the town now? They’d solidify their stranglehold on the town’s heart in a way never before seen — and that’s practically a license to print money.
Annually competing for a Super Bowl is within their grasp. They have both the means and the imperative to reach that goal. However, road mapping that achievement needs to start as soon as possible.
Why? Because it is going to take three fairly extraordinary things to achieve it:
1. An acknowledgement that what they’ve been doing isn’t getting them closer to a championship
The first step toward solving any problem is acknowledging it exists. And boy oh boy does it exist:
No division titles since 2016.
No byes earned since 2014.
A 3-4 playoff record the last five seasons.
Being out coached in games, outmaneuvered in the offseason market and plain outclassed by division foes with lesser talent.
A stubborn insistence on running a defensive scheme that depends on QB pressure with the front four, coupled with a resistance to acquiring the proper pieces to make it function.
A baffling inability to support one of the best quarterbacks in the game with complementary football.
In-game decisions that don’t demonstrate a clear perception of team strengths and the massive power of momentum that is available to tap.
Add them all up and you have a team that is consistently on the fringe of the Super Bowl conversation but never truly within striking distance.
We all know Pete Carroll burns to win. Yet the moves the team recently have made under his direction give the appearance of a leadership group uncertain of their charting, desperate to simply remain competitive and willing to be backed into a corner by time, circumstance and opportunistic teams and free agents rather than control their own destiny.
None of which is aided by Pete’s media presentation. Serious questions about the construction of the team and choices made under his leadership are often met with terse, almost dismissive answers that barely register as even acknowledging the premise of the question. Questions about COVID protocols, social justice and a fun locker room however, are answered with cheery brightness and clear, steely determination.
Coming to terms with the reality that they have faltered under Pete Carroll’s leadership will not be easy but on the whole, the body of proof is damning and crying out for a clear, honest appraisal.
2. The need for humility to examine every single team process objectively and courage to change those processes in order to get closer to a championship
They’re so fond of having “tell the truth Monday” in-season. They might need a whole week to examine their team-building missteps this year. How did they get here? Can they better target their aggression this offseason?
What is the core identity of this team? And why isn’t every decision and process geared toward retaining and bolstering that identity?
How can it possibly be that they spent $50 million and massive draft capital in 2020 and yet still put possibly the most inconsistent product on the field in Pete’s Seattle career? Why have they allowed their young players to have their development blocked by ‘here today, gone tomorrow’ veterans that don’t provide tangible on-field results? How do they continually struggle to make good use of their timeouts and constantly make head-scratching decisions during games? When was the last time a coordinator put together a game plan that was both consistent and creative?
Do they need to consider a different approach to the draft?
How about their organizational philosophy towards the salary cap?
For years they’ve been judicious about their cap room, gaining praise for being able to roll cap into the next season and being ‘fiscally responsible’ in order to extend key players. All the while, their competitors have freely added major pieces with far less appearance of cap room, while simultaneously avoiding the dreaded “cap jail” that seems to inhibit the Seahawks from making bold decisions to add that just-one-more weapon to an already solid group to put this team over the top.
They have a real opportunity to improve this team in a major way this offseason but it will require some boldness and cap creativity that has so far been unseen from this front office.
Do the Seahawks as an organization have the humility to look at yet another 10-6 or 11-5 season followed by a quick playoff exit and say ‘that is simply not good enough’? Do they have the courage to reevaluate their operational procedures and admit that changes need to be made?
The core desire is there but it will take an enormous effort to deviate from the pattern they have put in place.
3. A challenging and engaged ownership group that will finance the moves they deem necessary
Being bold takes ownership confidence and financial backing. That is not something every team enjoys.
Paul Allen famously had deep pockets and was willing to go get players and staff who were deemed necessary to success. Does the group under the leadership of Jodi Allen have a similar mentality? It will take those same deep pockets to both acquire talent and to pay talent who no longer fit the teams’ vision of success to go away.
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With all that in mind, what do the Seahawks need to look at in these final four games?
1. Are they truly putting their biggest player asset in the best position to succeed?
Buried in the offseason narrative about letting Russ throw more is the fact that supporting your quarterback comes in many different forms:
— Having a smothering defense to give you the ball with fantastic field position
— A run game that burns the clock and protects Russ from taking a physical toll
— Tight ends providing matchup nightmares and easy first downs
Have the Seahawks done enough to maximize the talent of their best player?
The Seahawks spent over $10 million and two draft picks on the tight end position. At one point in the offseason, there were more TE’s than Defensive Ends on the Seahawks’ roster. They clearly prioritized the position. Then the season started and that big investment became an afterthought week after week.
Have they phased TE’s out of the offense? Or relegated them to a blocking role? Or is Russ the reason they’re not getting many touches?
They will return Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson to the roster next year and Stephen Sullivan will likely return from the practice squad. Would a simple solid blocking TE addition suffice to fill the depth? Or do they need to re-commit to making the TE’s an important part of their attack?
What of the Running Backs? Can Rashaad Penny give enough glimpses this year to give the team confidence he can take on a major role in 2021? Do Deejay Dallas and Travis Homer have the ability to improve beyond third string and special teams players?
And Chris Carson. The Seahawks have an extremely tough decision to make there. He cannot stay healthy yet is a heart and soul player that sets the tone for the offense. The team is clearly not the same when he is not on the field. An honest and thoughtful evaluation of his skills, impact on the team and market value is crucial.
2. Can this defense consistently perform as constructed? Is Jamal Adams worth a giant extension?
A bad side effect of all the injuries they’ve sustained is they haven’t gotten to truly see what they talent they have assembled can do as a unit. They have four games to evaluate what they’ve got.
Jamal Adams, the biggest of the Seahawks’ offseason acquisitions, has produced some equally spectacular and troublesome results:
— He leads the Seahawks with 7.5 sacks and has provided pressure to get quarterbacks thinking about an audible to the opposite side
— He has missed four games with injury and not been 100% for other games. He is conceding a 113 QB rating in coverage and there is a cost to the scheme in having a strong safety blitz so much
Can the defense thrive with this output from the strong safety spot? Is it worth a massive extension that will force the Seahawks to cut back in other areas?
There’s been a persistent narrative that the arrival of Carlos Dunlap will balance the defense and reduce the dependence on blitzing Jamal so much. Yet in the 5 games since acquiring Dunlap, the team has blitzed Jamal just as much as before. Will that continue in the final four games and the playoffs? Will the results be different?
Adams’ acquisition and use challenges Pete Carroll’s defensive principles. Recently, when Pete was gushing about Adams’ performance, he said something of note. That Adams is a ‘risk-taker’ and that ‘he loves that about him.’
Carroll admitted that ‘sometimes the risks will get him but he’s a big part of our defense.’
Has Pete ever described risk-taking as a positive trait in his defenders? Maybe early in rookie Earl Thomas’ career? Maybe?
And how has Adams’ use impacted Quandre Diggs? Is he a good safety match for Adams? Has the scheme limited Diggs’ playmaking ability? And if so, is that an acceptable result?
3. What of the other defensive pieces?
The Seahawks cannot possibly be thinking of moving on from Bobby Wagner, can they? He is $17m against the cap next year. Is the cost/benefit leaning in the wrong direction? Or has part of Bobby’s play been the result of the front office utterly ignoring the interior DL this offseason? Would a recommitment to a stouter interior raise his play back to 2018 levels? We talk about supporting the QB. How about supporting the QB of the defense?
Can Shaquille Griffin rebound next year? Will the 2021 depressed market and his awful performance this year allow them to retain him and buy low on a possible Pro Bowl season?
KJ Wright has demonstrated time and again this year why he is such a good player. Will he price himself out of Seattle? Can Jordyn Brooks take over his role?
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The Seahawks have a huge amount of homework to do and it’s not all of the simpler ‘paperwork pushing’ variety. Serious questions need to be asked. Core principles re-evaluated. Sights need to be reset on returning to the championship discussion.
The last couple of offseasons, the team has appeared more reactionary than following a cohesive, well-design plan of attack. It’s been starkly laid bare by the product they’ve put on the field. They’ve lurched from one circumstance to another and not been able to follow their stated goals to fill crucial, potentially devastating needs.
The sooner they can outline a clear, defined plan of action, the better prepared they will be to react to what an unprecedented 2021 offseason will throw at them and succeed.
If the Seahawks are serious about contending they will know in their heart of hearts the process doesn’t start at the combine, the first day of the league year, or the draft.
It starts now.
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