There’s also a belief around the league that, unless he gets a new deal or trade, Seahawks’ safety Earl Thomas is preparing to sit out through training camp and into the regular season.
Here’s how this situation is probably going to play out…
1. Earl Thomas, as per the tweet above, holds out into the regular season.
2. As has been the case so far, no team will offer to trade for Thomas with his contract expiring at the end of the season.
3. Equally the Seahawks won’t be forced into extending his contract and will wait this out.
4. Thomas will have to decide if he wants to return in the opening few weeks of the season having made his point. Or he can wait it out. Yet he has to be active in at least six games to accrue a season. If he doesn’t, the 2018 season won’t count towards his contract and he’d be locked to the Seahawks through 2019.
5. In the meantime he’ll be costing himself millions. When Duane Brown held out a year ago he missed out on roughly $3.87m in salary. He also faced the prospect of $1.5m in fines for skipping training camp. Brown’s base salary was $9.3m last year and Thomas’ number in 2018 is $8.5m. So he’s due a similar number in fines and missed salary.
6. For all this point proving, Thomas will sour his relationship with some Seahawks fans and be out of pocket. Alternatively he could play the final year of his contract and cash in during free agency. Which is probably what will happen anyway, even if he holds out. Because so far nobody has shown any real interest in trading for him.
Here’s this weeks podcast. It’s an Earl Thomas free zone. Training camp preview and some running back talk. Check it out:
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Last week USA Today’s Nate Davis wound everyone up by projecting the Seahawks to finish 4-12 (link deliberately not included). As far as predictions go, it was akin to the big dinosaur from Jurassic World 1.
It was noisy, left a great big foot print and didn’t make any sense.
It was also easily defeated and this time didn’t require the aid of a strangely helpful velociraptor.
When Pete Carroll arrived in Seattle, he inherited a mess. The Seahawks had no building blocks and had to rely on countless roster moves to find retreads willing to scrap and fight. They were a bad team and still, somehow, won seven games and qualified for the playoffs (before beating the Saints in the wildcard).
The following year they were still pretty bad. Some green shoots emerged due to quality drafting. Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman and K.J Wright were starting for the first time. The running game was much improved. Yet they still started badly and had Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback.
Another 7-9 season.
If the Seahawks were ever going to be a 4-12 team under Carroll, that’s when it was going to happen.
Wilson proved, emphatically, that he could carry the team in 2017. The defense suffered numerous injuries, the run game was non-existent and Blair Walsh.
They were a missed field goal in week 17 away from a 10-win season. Largely due to Wilson.
The quarterback alone makes a mockery of a four-win prediction.
This doesn’t mean the Seahawks will amount to anything special in 2018. They’re going through a major transition. Big names have moved on. Another (Earl Thomas) could join them. There’s a new dependency on youth on defense. They’re hoping coaching changes on offense will lead to improved results.
There’s something to prove for a change, after years of assumed contention behind a long list of seasoned pro’s.
Questioning Seattle’s ability to make the playoffs isn’t unfair. A four-win season, however, suggests a complete and utter meltdown. Especially when you retain the likes of Wilson, Bobby Wagner, Doug Baldwin, Duane Brown and others. It would be a catastrophe.
Think how bad the Seahawks had to be in Mike Holmgren’s final season in 2008. That’s what a four-win season looks like.
So what constitutes a realistic projection for the Seahawks?
Perhaps an outsider can only see a burning barn? The Earl Thomas saga, numerous Richard Sherman quotes, multiple big names gone, 42-7.
There are actually areas the Seahawks can improve without too much difficulty (and remember, 2017 was a nine-win season).
1. The running game
Seattle’s identity is based on being able to run the ball. The Seahawks emphatically could not run the ball last season. You don’t need me to repeat all the horrific stats. The run game was an abomination. A mess.
Repairing the run has been the off-season focus. The two new coaching appointments, the first round pick, the addition of two run-blocking tight ends. Everything has been geared to fixing the run. If they achieve this — and they rapidly improved the run game between 2010 and 2011 — the Seahawks will reconnect their offense and defense and provide the kind of help Russell Wilson deserves.
They might not have the LOB but Wilson + a running game = a very competitive opponent.
2. The need to be quicker on defense
The Seahawks have moved on from a number of key veterans. It’s true there’s no longer an ‘all-star’ look to the unit. Yet it was clear one ingredient from ‘bigger, faster, stronger’ was missing last season.
The speed.
Seattle suddenly looked like an ageing team. This was punctuated when the Rams looked significantly quicker in the Century Link beat down. The various changes to the defense aren’t just about moving on disillusioned characters. It was surely about regaining some of the quickness that made Seattle so dangerous from 2011 onwards.
Speed doesn’t just come in the form of numerous 4.3 runners either. Youth, fresh legs, new energy. That willingness to fly around and chase that second contract rather than expecting the third. Seattle’s defense won’t be as good as the 2013 unit in 2018. Nowhere near. Can they be competitive? Not a liability? Sure. Carroll hasn’t put a bad defense on the field in eight seasons so far.
The two big question marks will be pass rush and the changes to the secondary. Firstly, Seattle coped fairly well when they had to rely on Chris Clemons for a pass rush between 2010-12. Secondly, Carroll and John Schneider were the guys that drafted and developed Sherman, Chancellor, Thomas, Maxwell, Griffin, Thurmond etc.
They can develop DB’s, even ones you haven’t heard of.
3. Improved special teams
Blair Walsh missing field goals, bad punts and coverage, lost field position, ineffective returns. 2017 was a bad year for special teams in Seattle.
They drafted a new punter and signed two new kickers. It doesn’t guarantee improved results but certainly they’ve been pro-active in trying to address this issue. If they can deliver even an average performance on special teams in 2018, that would be a major boon.
The offensive line should also benefit from an extra year of experience and the coaching change to Mike Solari. Duane Brown, brought in mid-way through the 2017 season, has now had a proper off-season in Seattle. There’s potential for growth here even if it falls into the ‘have to see it to believe it’ category for now. Change might be harder to achieve after years of toil but it’s neither impossible or improbable.
All of these things are basic aspects for a functioning football team. It highlights how rudderless the 2017 Seahawks were at times. Yet they still won nine games — because of Wilson, the coach and the likes of Wagner and Baldwin.
It’s easy to forget the Seahawks — minus Avril, Sherman, Chancellor and others — handily beat the eventual Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia. On a day when the running game and special teams clicked, they were extremely competitive.
The Seahawks aren’t what they once were. Nobody would dispute that. Talk of 4-12 seasons and a chronic demise seem overstated though.
They won nine games a year ago and they can do the same this year. If not more. A prediction of 8-10 wins seems fair considering a somewhat difficult schedule. They’re capable of more but it might be a year too early for a refreshed group.
Expect a competitive Seahawks team trying to work it’s way back into contention. Not a hopeless bunch of has-been’s drifting towards a top-five pick.
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— Blogging The Boys (@BloggingTheBoys) July 16, 2018
Yesterday Earl Thomas played his latest card, demanding an extension or trade via Instagram (how very 2018).
Fans have since been debating the merits of paying Thomas or trading him. Most, it seems, want to see a conclusion one way or another.
There’s something fundamentally wrong with Thomas’ demand though.
The Seahawks have seemingly been willing to trade Earl for months. Thus we endured the slow dance into the draft with Dallas.
They’ve already granted his wish. They don’t want to extend his contract so they’re open to dealing him. And nobody took the bait.
Maybe his next Instagram post should be aimed at the Cowboys?
‘Make a reasonable trade offer and let’s finally get this done’
If Dallas is only willing to offer a day three pick (for example, a fourth) for a player they know will be a free agent in a matter of months, should the Seahawks just gift Earl Thomas to a NFC rival? Of course not. There has to be something in it for them. Otherwise, they might as well just wait it out and see what kind of comp pick they get in the future.
It’s very easy to just say ‘pay him or trade him’. Not paying him is clearly an attempt to learn a lesson from the Kam Chancellor, Marshawn Lynch and Michael Bennett third contracts. Thomas, after all, threatened to retire just over 18 months ago. He’s missed seven games in the last two seasons. Surely most will understand Seattle’s conservative approach, even if you’d prefer to extend his deal?
‘Just trade him’ comes down to a team making a fair offer. The Seahawks can’t force Dallas to offer a second or third round pick. Seattle paid a second rounder for Sheldon Richardson and a 2+3 for Duane Brown. You can’t blame them for wanting a similar offer for a better player.
So it’s time for Thomas to aim his frustration at the team he wants to join, not the team currently willing to use him in 2018. The Dallas Cowboys are the reason there hasn’t been a conclusion to this saga.
The moment they offer a fair deal, this gets done.
What are they waiting for?
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In this latest podcast we talk about the great career of Kam Chancellor, discuss a number of Seahawks topics and Kenny even indulges me in some brief World Cup talk. Have a listen…
— Kameron Chancellor (@KamChancellor) July 1, 2018
During the Pete Carroll era, I think there are three players other teams really coveted.
Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and Kam Chancellor.
That’s not a slight on Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner, Richard Sherman, Doug Baldwin and others. There’s just something about that trio. Wilson because of his position, playmaking and uniqueness. Lynch and Chancellor because of their tone-setting, brutal physicality and talent.
Football is a physical game. It’s more fun when you’re the intimidator rather than the finesse, efficiently schemed machine. Lynch and Chancellor developed the LOB culture in Seattle. They more than anyone else connected the offense and defense.
The fear factor they both created might never be seen again. It was a pleasure to witness. Seattle were the team that didn’t just beat an opponent — they also beat them up. Thus those long runs where opponents would lose the following week after facing Seattle. It was real.
The hit on Vernon Davis in 2012 and the sledgehammer delivered to Demaryius Thomas in the Super Bowl are two of the defining plays of the Carroll era. Here was Seattle, through Chancellor, sending a message. Not just to two individual players or an opponent. This was a message to the league.
Chancellor wasn’t just a huge physical presence though. It appears he was the guy to his team mates. The leading alpha. He was also an exceptional football player, worthy of being remembered not just for the big hits but also for his skill and football ability.
Increasingly this team is starting to look very, very different. Legendary players are moving on. Rather than spend a lifetime agonising over that one play at the end of that one game, we’d all be better off recalling how incredible it was to watch this team grow from nothing to become a Championship band of brothers.
Kam Chancellor was one of the best players in the NFL, on one of the best teams in recent memory, on undoubtedly one of the all-time great defenses.
Firstly, if you missed the recent podcast don’t forget to check it out:
1. The Seahawks fix the run
It’s popular these days to try and diminish the importance of the running game. Regular readers will know I’m not convinced by the statistical arguments that suggest the run is overrated. Clearly you can create a somewhat convincing case based on situational stats and recent league trends. I just happen to believe there are certain things you can’t measure. Including the complete importance of a truly threatening running game.
I think this Tweet sums it up:
Seahawks faced Rodgers, Ryan, Wentz, Watson, Dak, Cousins, Goff x2. Highest passer rating against last season though: Blake Bortles, 123.7.
The Seahawks sold out to stop the run in this game, focusing almost their entire attention on Leonard Fournette. They were willing to challenge Blake Bortles to beat them. And he took the opportunity in what was undoubtedly his cleanest game of the season (and possibly his career).
I suspect many teams were willing to risk Russell Wilson beating them in 2012-14. They knew stopping Marshawn Lynch was the key. And even when they succeeded, as was occasionally the case, the attention Lynch drew often made life so much easier for the quarterback.
It’s probably one of the reasons they were a lot more successful ‘getting by’ on the O-line. Paul McQuistan was their starting left tackle for eight games in 2013. You’d barely notice aside from that one game in St. Louis.
If you can force teams to dedicate their focus to stopping the run, undoubtedly there are benefits to be felt. It might be difficult to quantify this but should you really even need to? Does everything need a number these days?
There’s also the cultural benefits of being a tough, physical running team. Lynch clearly inspired the LOB. The two key sections of Seattle’s team worked off each other, sharing the same attitude and intensity. It’s no coincidence that Seattle has lost the fear factor they once had since the running game collapsed.
2. Less politics please (don’t judge)
I’m not the type of person to write the words ‘stick to sports’ in a Tweet. I’m also not the type of person who wants players, fans or media to bury their heads in the sand and ignore big issues that need to be discussed.
That said, I think there’s too much politics in everyday life at the moment. You can’t escape it. Nearly everything is politicised. I appreciate why. This is a politically charged time around the world. Social media has become a hotspot for political views.
However, sometimes it’s nice to not have to think about politics. That doesn’t mean you’re ignorant to the issues facing the world. It doesn’t mean you don’t care.
Increasingly it’s harder to separate the NFL from politics. Every press conference Pete Carroll faces is always a mix of social ills and football. Every game there seems to be some kind of political strand attached. A lot of articles in the NFL media talk about politics, not football.
I’m not blaming anyone for that. I just wish that, occasionally, the NFL could go back to being a fun release.
3. A satisfactory resolution to the Earl Thomas saga
Richard Sherman wasn’t supposed to get cut. Cliff Avril wasn’t supposed to retire this way. Michael Bennett wasn’t supposed to be traded for peanuts.
Who could’ve predicted any of that back in 2013?
It seems, sadly, that the Earl Thomas saga is going to end in a similarly unsatisfactory manner.
It’ll be difficult to witness a dramatic holdout stretching into the season. The negative vibe of the Kam Chancellor holdout hurt the team. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that with Earl.
Either way a parting appears inevitable. Possibly via free agency next year.
What constitutes a satisfactory outcome? A fair deal via trade or an extension of sorts. Just something that doesn’t have the fans wringing their hands for weeks on end. Either draw a line on the situation and allow people to move on, or come to a compromise. And for either scenario to come true, it can’t be the Seahawks conceding alone. Earl Thomas has to be willing to compromise too.
4. Fresh start
The 2017 season wasn’t much fun. The Seahawks were in contention in the win column but most people knew they weren’t a genuine challenger. The injuries mounted, the run game collapsed and the defense started to toil. It was a far cry from the unbeatable excitement witnessed from the 2012 season right through to the end of that Super Bowl.
The Seahawks may never be able to recapture that magic. It’s perhaps unrealistic to think it’s even vaguely possible. However, they still have the ultimate playmaker at quarterback. They’re trying to get the running game back. They have some new, young pieces on defense supported by some exceptional veterans.
If nothing else, it’d be pleasing to witness a fresh start. A new energy. A reason to believe again.
5. A pass rusher emerges
The Seahawks’ biggest question mark on the roster is the pass rush. They have some young pieces but not a lot of proven quality outside of Frank Clark. Dion Jordan showed flashed in 2017 but has to prove he can stay healthy. The rest have to show they belong.
It’s possible we’ll spend most of the 2018 college season looking at pass rushers. That’s not a problem, the 2019 draft promises to be loaded on the defensive line. However, it would be a huge bonus if Jordan, Rasheem Green, Barkevious Mingo, Marcus Smith, Jacob Martin, Shaquem Griffin or another name really stood out and showed they can be part of the long term future. Especially with Clark set to be a free agent at the end of the season.
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Kenny and I discuss the Earl Thomas holdout and offer some thoughts on the Seahawks offense. Check it out below.
I also want to give a special mention to Brad Linn and the whole community here. Brad set up a donation fund in his own time to help repair my laptop (broken during the draft) and sent me the money this week. Thank you to everyone who donated and especially to Brad for setting it up. You guys are incredible.
It’s becoming increasingly trendy to roast the Seahawks these days.
I suppose it’s something to talk about. It is June after all.
Here’s the latest offering…
As sample size on #Seahawks organizational decisions grows, it becomes more & more clear their success was merely a byproduct of catching the + side of variance. They have no edges & they're not out-smarting anyone. https://t.co/azS9jhVv2I
Forget how they built one of the greatest defenses in NFL history, found a franchise quarterback in round three and were a yard away from back-to-back Super Bowl Championships.
Ah, but now they’ve appointed an unpopular former GM as a consultant, so they’ve clearly lost their edge.
Let’s have a bit of perspective. I thought it was worth going back to 2012 to find out what people were saying about Ryan Grigson when he became the Colts GM.
Grigson has been listed as a future front-office star after helping to build two Super Bowl teams including the championship-winning Rams in 1999, his first season in the front office.
In 2001, Grigson became an area scout for St. Louis. He joined the Eagles as a regional scout in 2003 and gradually moved up the ladder from regional scout, to director of college scouting and eventually to director of player personnel, the job he had held for the past two seasons.
“He has been a great adviser to me and somebody I have leaned on to bounce ideas off of many times over my career,” Eagles GM Howie Roseman said in a statement. “He leaves no stone left unturned in his efforts to find good players and we were lucky to have him here in Philadelphia.”
That’s Howie Roseman, the guy receiving widespread praise for building a Super Bowl winning Eagles roster in two years.
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