Watching a game? Watching a prospect? Anyone stand out? Or do you just want to talk about the PAC-12?
Whatever you want to discuss, here’s your thread.
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Leonard Fournette could be the #1 pick in 2017.
The breakaway speed at 230lbs. The ability to finish. The instinct to provide an option to the quarterback who was about to take a sack and make the big play after a juggling reception. The pass protection. The way he can pound the rock and find the edge.
There’s no reason to believe he isn’t the next big thing to enter the NFL. There are some doubters — but we’ll see how high he goes if he avoids injury. Trent Richardson was the #3 pick. Todd Gurley went at #10 with a serious knee injury. Fournette appears to be superior to both players.
This week Kenneth and I were joined by Matt Brown from Sports on Earth. We dissect Dane Brugler’s latest mock draft at CBS Sportsline, discuss Leonard Fournette and end with a diatribe on Andrew Luck.
Despite the angst and booing at Century Link Field, it wasn’t a surprise to see a sluggish first half Seahawks performance and eventually a comprehensive 26-0 win.
Yes, this was an injury-ravaged Bears team missing several key players including their quarterback and #1 receiver. Chicago also has a veteran, respected (ultra-conservative) Head Coach in John Fox and two of the best coordinators in the NFL.
Vic Fangio was the driving force behind San Francisco’s excellent defense under Jim Harbaugh. Adam Gase is a talented game-planner who conjured up an offensive scheme that tested but didn’t really threaten Seattle’s unit.
Fox is well known for his love of the running game. It wasn’t a total shock to see Chicago run effectively to start the day without getting into range for even a long field goal.
After half-time Seattle pulled away with some key second half adjustments — out-gaining the Bears 162 yards to 24 in the third quarter — not including Tyler Lockett’s franchise record 105-yard kick return for a touchdown. The Bears crossed into Seattle territory once. The Seahawks ended a 194-game Chicago record for shut-outs. Every Bears possession ended in a punt. The impatient boo’s in the first half were not a good look for the 12th man.
Even so, it’s clear the Seahawks are still trying to find a rhythm on offense. And that’s fine. New England, Atlanta and one or two others have hit the ground running. The rest of the league are still working to find their true identity, Seattle included.
Darrell Bevell will continue to be scapegoated as the ‘face’ of the problems. In reality he didn’t drop a first-half pass (Thomas Rawls, Ricardo Lockette) that would’ve otherwise sprung big gains. He isn’t the one tasked with providing a functioning offensive line with his own hand-picked players (Tom Cable).
Bevell received criticism for calling a bubble screen to Jermaine Kearse and perhaps rightly so. He didn’t get any credit for the detailed, developing route Kearse executed before half-time for a significant gain. Such is the life of a play-caller.
There are several reasons why Seattle’s offense isn’t firing on all-cylinders at the moment. Marshawn Lynch’s latest mysterious disappearing act didn’t help to start the game (he eventually left for good with a hamstring issue). They clearly want to feature Jimmy Graham without shifting their focus too far from the original identity. Russell Wilson has not had a brilliant start to the new season either. Early in games he’s missed that spark — either as a scrambler or as a passer.
Does he trust the offensive line? Garry Gilliam was beat like a drum by Pernell McPhee. J.R. Sweezy had two ugly plays early on. Tom Cable was tasked with putting a functioning O-line on the field. Right now the line is a major weakness.
It’s also impacting Graham. Yes, it’s ugly to see him face McPhee off the edge. It’s also necessary to keep the tight end blocking if the O-line is struggling. At this early stage it seems clear Seattle’s priority in the draft next year is to find an offensive line starter/upgrade.
Somewhat concerning are the issues experienced on two key target areas this season — short yardage and red zone. The Seahawks still can’t punch home a 3rd and 1. They went 0-6 on third down in the first half. They had three plays in the red zone and settled for a field goal before the break. It’s shocking that a team with Lynch, Wilson and Graham can be this ineffective in the key downs.
Lockett’s 105-yard kick return touchdown ignited the second half. Seattle didn’t score enough cheap points last season or generate enough special teams yardage to flip field position. This is looking like a diamond of a draft pick for the Seahawks.
Graham had the kind of day that will extinguish any silliness about his role in the offense. He finished with 83-yards and a touchdown from seven catches. Of greater concern is the Lynch ‘not ready for the start’ report, the back-rub and the eventual withdrawal. It seemed like a repeat of the 2014 Kansas City game and subsequent rumblings about his unhappiness and attitude. Is it related to Kam Chancellor’s issues with the team? This is one to monitor.
Thomas Rawls had a really nice 104-yard game in relief of Lynch. It wasn’t a perfect display — the dropped pass and a missed cut on one run denying him further substantial yardage. He ran with a lot of purpose and on this (early) evidence appears to be an upgrade on previous backup Robert Turbin.
There are still improvements to be made but unlike the Ravens, Seattle isn’t facing a 0-3 hole. Unlike the Colts, they did find plenty of positives.
— Leonard Fournette (RB, LSU) could be the #1 pick in the 2017 draft. Who cares if he’s a running back? We’re talking about a generational talent with zero flaws. He runs away from DB’s at 6-1 and 230lbs. He has brilliant vision, a second gear, the power to drive through and break tackles and the hands to be an effective force in the passing game. He’s 20-years-old and already looks like he’s pushing 30. Against Syracuse he was unstoppable — recording 244 yards and two touchdowns. He had another +80-yard scoring run called back on an illegal formation penalty. Physically there just hasn’t been a player entering the league with this amount of talent in over a decade. He’s on a different level to even Adrian Peterson. Whoever has the #1 pick in 2017 will need a good reason to pass on Fournette.
— Tre’Davious White (CB, LSU) is already the best corner in college football and was given the coveted #18 LSU jersey this year. Against Syracuse he showed he’s a special teams threat too with a 69-yard punt return for a score. The Tigers have quite the production line for CB’s. White is the next great one and should be a top-ten pick in 2016. Water-tight coverage, a good enough tackler in the open-field, fantastic athlete, incredibly respected by his team mates. NFL GM’s and coaches are going to want to work with this guy badly.
— Vernon Hargeaves III (CB, Florida) on the other hand is tremendously overrated. A highly touted prospect who started early, Hargreaves is living off reputation. In Saturday’s flukey win over Tennessee, Hargreaves missed several open-field tackles and became a liability. Florida is developing quite a reputation for over-hyped corner prospects (with Joe Haden the obvious exception). Hargreaves’ future is likely as a slot corner project and unless he impresses during interviews at the combine (and runs well) he might be fortunate to go on day one in a loaded class for corners.
— Robert Nkemdiche (DE, Ole Miss) has 0.5 sacks in four games so far — but he should still secure a place in the top-10 of next years draft. Teams will salivate over his athletic potential. If Ziggy Ansah is a top-five pick, it’s safe to place Nkemdiche in that bracket. He’s already scored a tight-end-esque catch-and-run for Ole Miss this year. On Saturday he added a rushing touchdown against Vanderbilt. A bit more production would confirm he’s place among 2016’s elite — but there aren’t many human beings with Nkemdiche’s size and athleticism.
— If Leonard Fournette is the best player in college football and a shoe-in to go very early in 2017 — Myles Garrett (DE, Texas A&M) will be right there with him. Also a true sophomore, Garrett had a crucial sack against Arkansas to force overtime before the Aggies eventually won. Last week he had 3.5 sacks against Nevada and he’s on 6.5 after just four games. He is lightning quick off the edge with ample size (6-5, 260lbs). It’s way too early, but Fournette and Garrett could go #1 and #2 in 2017.
— There were two injury scares this weekend. Darron Lee (LB, Ohio State) left the Buckeyes game against Western Michigan with a leg injury. At the time it looked serious but he did return. Jack Conklin (T, Michigan State) suffered a knee injury playing special teams and it could be serious. Mark Dantonio, a well known misery guts, refused as usual to discuss any injuries after the game. Hopefully it’s just a sprain. Both players are possible (probable?) first round picks in 2016.
— We discussed Jared Goff (QB, California) this week. If he’s going to propel himself beyond comparisons to Brock Osweiler (not unflattering by the way, Osweiler had many plus points) he has to win games against Washington and perform well in the process. Job done this weekend. His first touchdown pass was particularly impressive — off balance, thrown into a tight spot and perfect accuracy. If you want to throw your lot in with any QB eligible for 2016 — this is the guy.
— Tre’Davious White (CB, LSU) and Eli Apple (CB, Ohio State) could be the first two corners off the board in 2016 — but they’ll be well supported in round one. Will Redmond (CB, Mississippi State) showed good instincts to pick off Auburn’s freshman QB in a key SEC win. Cameron Sutton (CB, Tennessee) was tremendous against Florida and the Gators tried their best to avoid throwing his way. Kendall Fuller (CB, Virginia Tech) has the bloodlines and talent to also push himself into day one.
— After a frustrating day against Toledo, Alex Collins (RB, Arkansas) is showing why he could even usurp Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Ohio State) to be the top running back in 2016. He ran with purpose against Texas A&M for 151 yards and a score. He has good size and speed — but his best aspects are a physical running style and unmatched cut-back ability. You won’t find a better cut in college football. Given Seattle’s love for one-cut runners, he has to be on our radar as possible Seahawks targets.
Watching a game? A certain prospect? Someone catch the eye?
Use this as an open thread to debate the day in college football.
Even at this early stage it’s shaping up to be a draft where linemen dominate the early picks. The talent on the defensive and offensive lines is strong — and there’s a very real possibility there won’t be a quarterback drafted in the first round. Not unless a player emerges to fill that slot, much in the way Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert barged their way into 2011’s top ten.
I spent a bit of time today looking at Cal’s Jared Goff — and he’s probably the best bet for a first frame QB. He has a very natural throwing motion and plenty of arm talent. One of the first things to look for in a quarterback is how comfortable and natural they look throwing the ball. Does it come out nicely with a tight spiral and the necessary velocity? Can they vary the pace and throw with touch?
Seattle’s quarterback opponent on Sunday — Jimmy Clausen — was a classic example of a player with a funky motion who didn’t tick any of the necessary boxes. He had a slingy side-arm release point. Most of his throws were one paced — the downfield stuff was catchable but lacked any real punch. He benefitted a lot from Golden Tate’s ability to high point. Even so — most of Clausen’s throws were screens or extended hand-off’s to the receiver.
It doesn’t always have to be a conventional over-the-top release and the technique doesn’t have to be spot on — but you can usually see when a passer has a very natural throwing style. That’s really the first thing to look for. Then you go into things like the ability to go through progressions etc.
Ryan Tannehill is a good example of a player who threw very naturally but struggled in the next stage of the game — he made two many errors at the line of scrimmage — failing to identify the coverage, throwing blind, turning the ball over. He still makes the same mistakes today.
Goff is a very natural passer who can vary the throwing speed. He can fit it into a tight window in the short game but also has the touch and arm strength to get it deep. He looks comfortable and refined. He’s also surprisingly athletic at 6-4 and 215lbs — he’s elusive to avoid pressure but also a nifty runner in the open field. Goff isn’t Russell Wilson, but if there’s a chance to scramble into space and make a first down he’ll do it.
Is he accurate? Sure. He doesn’t force anything and avoids turnovers. He seems to understand the offense — he doesn’t bail on the call in the face of pressure and know how to be patient in the pocket. There’s a lot to like and very little to quibble about.
He reminded me a little bit of Brock Osweiler. It’s easy to sit here and assume Osweiler is a failure considering he hasn’t played any meaningful football in three-and-a-bit seasons. He was, after all, taken in round two ahead of Russell Wilson who’s been to two Super Bowls in the same period of time. However, Osweiler has been stuck behind Peyton Manning with zero chance of supplanting the incumbent starter.
He may get his chance next season (although he would require a new contract in Denver). John Elway liked him enough to draft him in the early second round as a project and he played pretty well in pre-season.
Like Goff he’s tall and thin with surprising mobility. Osweiler frequently avoided pressure and made gains with his legs. He threw with poise and accuracy in the face of pressure and made several ‘wow’ throws for Arizona State. We’re yet to see Goff deliver some of those same money throws — but there’s still time in 2015. Osweiler threw some of the prettiest passes you’ll see — right into tiny windows under pressure. It’s easy to forget three years on.
Both players also failed (so far in Goff’s case) to propel their team to a new level. Osweiler constantly flashed talent and then made costly mistakes in key games. It wasn’t always turnovers either — drives would stall unnecessarily. He wasn’t a room-tilter or a game-changer in college. He was simply a really talented individual with huge potential.
Goff’s Cal career has followed a similar path — although the supporting cast hasn’t been great. They’re currently 3-0 in a wide open PAC-12 and maybe he’ll be able to elevate his team and therefore his own draft stock in the process? Osweiler was a second-round pick in a year for quarterbacks that included Luck, RGIII, Tannehill, Weeden and Wilson. Goff won’t have that level of competition and could, even by default, find himself in the day-one mix with a good season. Right now a safe second-round grade seems appropriate, just like Osweiler, with a chance to rise.
Keep an eye on North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz. We highlighted him at the start of the season as one to watch. He’s a small school prospect who could really propel his stock (much in the way Joe Flacco did at Delaware or Jimmy Garoppolo at Eastern Illinois).
He’s 6-6 and 235lbs but runs the read-option. Like Goff he’s a surprisingly nimble runner and the QB-keeper is a regular feature in the NDS offense. There’s an awful lot to like about his throwing style — again it’s very natural. He has a good arm, throws with touch when necessary and makes a lot of plays.
There are some issues too. He doesn’t always scan the field like he should do — in the tape below there’s a play where he throws underneath with a wide open receiver streaking downfield for an easy touchdown. Wentz never even looks at him and just goes to his first read. This is the type of thing he’d need to work on at the next level — but it’s fixable.
In a down year for the position don’t be surprised if Wentz ends up being the top rated senior QB.
Here's what Kam Chancellor texted Stephen A. Smith: "Ima go help my teammates that are understanding of my… http://t.co/QYdNoyWZCq
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 23, 2015
In last night’s podcast we discussed why it made sense for Chancellor to report this week (and it’d make our day if you were to check it out). He was losing money. The team was losing games. He wasn’t gaining anything from staying away because the Seahawks weren’t going to cave.
Seattle is at home for three of the next four games. All four are winnable. In fact there’s an opportunity to go on a reasonable winning streak. The Bengals road game on October 11th will be the toughest test. Dallas on November 1st is much less threatening if the Cowboys are without Dez Bryant and Tony Romo.
It’s not unrealistic to suggest the Seahawks can go unbeaten until December. Even if you have the Cincinnati game down as a loss — you could be looking at an 8-3 record going into the final month (which starts with road games in Minnesota and Baltimore). The Seahawks finished extremely well in 2012 and 2014 (and didn’t have to in 2013).
Chancellor wasn’t going to win any battle’s holding out any longer. He’d just lose more money. If the Seahawks do go on a winning streak starting on Sunday, he can use that as leverage in the off-season. ‘You were 0-2 without me, we started winning when I arrived.’
In reality they were going to start winning without him eventually, weakening his position.
This is the only way for both sides to ‘win’ this stand-off. The Seahawks can say they were strong and their stance should dissuade other players from holding out into the regular season. Chancellor also has a stronger case for getting more money pushed into his 2016 salary if he helps lead the team back to another Super Bowl from an 0-2 start.
For both parties the season really starts here. The Seahawks could be 1-1 or 2-0. They aren’t. But they have a healthy roster, all of their key players and a shot to start a long winning run against the hapless Bears this weekend.
In the podcast this week we run through a top-20 mock draft, talk a lot about Ole Miss, compliment the best player in college football and talk some Seahawks (and cake)…
No, the Seahawks season isn't over. Far from it. But they sure have eliminated a good portion of their margin for error.
— Mike Salk, 710 ESPN (@TheMikeSalk) September 21, 2015
For the third game in a row, the Seahawks found a way to lose in the fourth quarter.
The Super Bowl. The St. Louis game. The Packers game.
Seattle had a four-point lead, all the momentum and the atmosphere in Lambeau Field was becoming increasingly nervy.
A combination of Aaron Rodgers brilliance, a conservative defense and a key turnover means the Seahawks are in an 0-2 hole after the first two weeks of the season.
Some quick notes:
— Despite well publicised struggles against running quarterbacks, Russell Wilson was a non-factor as a runner in the first half. Why did it take until the second half to get the quarterback moving? Green Bay were dazed during Seattle’s two drives immediately after half time. Looking at the damage Colin Kaepernick did to Dom Capers’ defense, it was hard to watch Wilson avoiding the keeper. Green Bay prepared for the zone-read hand-off to Marshawn Lynch, took it away and had little trouble in doing so.
— Jimmy Graham had one catch and two targets. The Seahawks didn’t know how to build an offense around Percy Harvin and now they’re struggling to make use of another big name target. They have to be prepared to scheme around getting Graham into favourable match-ups (and then throw him the ball) otherwise this’ll end up being another wasted first round pick. This has to be a growing concern after two weeks. Graham is being lost in the same way Zach Miller became ineffective as a pass-catcher — except Graham is an inferior blocker. In a big NFC match-up on the road Graham has to have more than one catch for 11 yards. Has to. And that’s not taking anything away from Green Bay’s defense. The thing is, every defense prepared for Graham in New Orleans — and more often than not he dominated anyway.
— For large stretches the defensive performance was an upgrade over last week in St. Louis. Rodgers was limited after a sound opening drive. Yet as the game wore on and as Green Bay quickened the pace — Seattle had no answer. They didn’t blitz and were picked off using a soft zone. They struggled to create pressure using three and four man rushes in the fourth quarter. They also started to miss tackles and gave up some running gains. Still, it was better than week one.
— For the second straight week a healthy Seahawks roster (minus Kam Chancellor) lost to a beat-up opponent. St. Louis were missing their best two running backs plus their best two corners for a portion of the game. Green Bay were without Bryan Bulaga and Letroy Guion and lost Eddie Lacy early on. Davante Adams also injured his ankle and played hurt.
— For a team that has always been about finishing — the last three games have been agonising. Seattle shouldn’t have blown a 7-point lead to the Rams. The way they ran out of steam in this latest contest is partly due to Rodgers (perfect in the fourth quarter) but also on Seattle. Wilson has avoided turnovers in his career but was caught out on a covered screen play. It prevented the Seahawks from responding with a seven-point deficit and handed Green Bay minutes off the clock and a field goal.
— 0-2 isn’t a disaster, even with the Arizona Cardinals reaching 2-0. Home games against two other 0-2 teams — Chicago and Detroit — will provide an opportunity to reach parity. A week eight trip to Dallas appears less threatening if Tony Romo and Dez Bryant are both unavailable. Even so, the margin for error is tiny now. The Seahawks have lost 50% of the games they lost last year already and have to go to Cincinnati, Baltimore, Dallas, Minnesota, San Francisco and Arizona. There’s a reason only around 11-12% of 0-2 teams make the playoffs. They need a spark to get the season going.
