This could be the end of Alan Branch in Seattle

The elusive defensive tackle is signed. Tony McDaniel has penned a one-year contract with the Seahawks, adding some much needed interior depth.

Whether he starts in Seattle remains to be seen. Alan Branch didn’t just feature as a three technique, he also doubled up as Red Bryant’s backup. McDaniel might carry a similar dual role. But it might be a dual backup role. He was after all merely a rotational cog in Miami.

He could start, though. At 6-7 and 305lbs, he’s got the kind of size they seem to like at tackle. The Seahawks have to become tougher to run against. They also have to find more creative ways to rush the passer. Seattle fields a fine defense, but these are two big areas where they can get even better.

McDaniel has some previous baggage as noted in an earlier piece:

He’s had a couple of ugly run-ins with the police. In January 2005 he assaulted a fellow Tennessee student during a game of pick-up basketball. Edward Goodrich suffered four broke bones in the incident and needed a metal plate inserting into his face to repair the injuries. McDaniel pleaded guilty to misdemeanor assault.

Four years later he was arrested on the charge of domestic battery against his girlfriend. The charges were later reduced to disorderly contact, another misdemeanor. He was sentenced to six months probation. He was also required to attend counseling and served a one-game suspension issued by the NFL.

Let’s hope those issues are beyond McDaniel.

It’s worth pondering whether this signing was a direct result of a snub elsewhere. Vaughn Martin (6-4, 327lbs) was on a plane destined for Seattle. Then he got off the plane and signed for the Miami Dolphins:

“I was actually on the plane to Seattle this morning when I got off the plane to come over here back to Davie and sign.”

Martin is a former fourth round pick who left the San Diego Chargers after three seasons in the AFC West.

The door is still open for the Seahawks to draft a defensive tackle. However, given their penchant for guys who are 6-4 or taller and around 310-325lbs, there’s not a lot of obvious options this year. Montari Hughes could be the most fitting but carries an even bigger list of red flags than McDaniel. It might be that next year the Seahawks go into the draft still searching for a long term fit at defensive tackle.

Raiders interested in Matt Flynn?

Matt Flynn continues to be linked with other teams. Mike Silver is reporting “legitimate interest” from the Raiders, but not Jacksonville:

A league source said the Raiders have legitimate interest in acquiring Flynn, who could likely be pried from Seattle for as little as a fourth-round pick. (Another source said the Jacksonville Jaguars, who according to a CBSSports.com report are also interested in Flynn, have little inclination to try to swing a trade.)

Silver also notes a financial stumbling block that could be a turn-off. If the Raiders cut Carson Palmer, they’ll save around $6m against their cap. Acquiring Flynn would take up around $5.25m. Given the trade compensation that would also be required and the salary cap black hole that Oakland finds itself in, a deal still seams a long way off. You’d essentially be swapping Palmer for Flynn for around $750k in savings, while also giving up draft stock.

It really depends how determined the Raiders are to move on from Palmer and how much they want a veteran replacement.

John Clayton has touted the idea of swapping picks, an idea we discussed a couple of months ago on this blog. Flipping third round picks would be worth 100 points, or the same as a fourth round selection. Oakland has the fourth pick in round three, while Seattle has the 25th selection. This would allow the Raiders to avoid losing any picks after the decimation of their 2012 draft.

This remains Seattle’s best chance to move Flynn, which they clearly wish to do. They’ll save $3.25m against the cap if they work out a deal. Nothing is likely to happen though until Palmer is cut. But that appears to be a formality at this stage.

Elsewhere…

Albert Breer has a piece with Darrell Bevell discussing the acquisition of Percy Harvin. Bevell: “My mind started racing… You start thinking about all the things you can do with a player like that. And now the hard part is to harness that talent.”

Chris Mortensen and Mel Kiper discuss the possibility of Russell Wilson being the most successful ‘sophomore’ quarterback in 2013.

Logan (#18) has more talent than production. It's an LSU thing.

I remember looking over the fast linebackers group last year.  Lavonte David had outstanding tape.  Mychal Kendricks’ closing speed was a blur.  Zach Brown wasn’t very good on tape, but he had elite speed for his size.  The one player that didn’t stand out at all was Bobby Wagner.  I almost didn’t cover him that year.  Yet when I watched Wagner, something in the back of my mind just screamed “Seahawks” to me.  Trusting that instinct, I rated Wagner very highly for Seattle days before the 2012 draft for Seattle despite having him just 7th on my personal list.

What struck me about Wagner was how he played so conservatively, yet he had the tools to excel as a more aggressive player.  When Seattle drafted him, I thought that he might be the Earl Thomas of our front seven.  And that’s basically what he was- more of a protector than a playmaker- though he finished with a flurry of interceptions near the end of the season- including one that was infamously cancelled out by Earl Thomas.

Now it’s kind of dumb to talk about a stab in the dark that went right, much less try to build off of it.  This story is really just an excuse to use a fun segue- that being how I’m getting this strange sense of certainty again.  If there is a Bobby Wagner candidate for me this year, it’s Bennie Logan.

Like Wagner, Bennie Logan has some of the most uninspiring tape of any notable draft prospect this year.  He posted weak statistics and even in his best games he never really dominated.  Yet like Wagner, I have this nagging feeling in the back of my mind that Logan is going to be a Seahawk.  Now I just have to figure out why.

I’ll get to the actual scouting report shortly, but the first thing I have to mention about Logan is that, like Sylvester Williams, his value comes from his athleticism and speed in a 300+ pound body.  Logan moves like a 280 pound defensive tackle at 309.  There was some hype for Logan pre-combine as he was expected to put on a show.  Unfortunately for Logan, that didn’t really happen.  He abstained from the 40 yard dash, and the rest of his measurements ranged from 50th to 75th percentile.  It wasn’t a bad combine, but it wasn’t quite what people were expecting based on the athleticism he showed on tape. LSU’s pro-day starts later today and extends through Friday, so hopefully we’ll get some idea of Logan’s speed pretty soon.

Who knows what NFL big boards say, but in media circles it feels as if Logan’s draft stock has slowly drifted in recent months- from late 1st round to late 2nd round.  If actual big boards reflect that decline, that obviously puts Logan into serious consideration at #56.

Logan has a lot of core strength and it shows both against the run and in the pass rush.   This helps his case to Seattle even more, since the Seahawks biggest need is a run stuffing 3-tech that can also blossom into a quality pass rusher.

Logan had just two sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss last season on college football’s pro-bowl team of underachieving individuals.  Sam Montgomery has the look of a 1st round pick physically, but didn’t work hard and didn’t produce.  Barkevious Mingo can dart, but he struggled to dart into quarterbacks.  When I watch Kevin Minter I see more mistakes than great plays.  Lavar Edwards has intriguing measurables, but never really made his mark on that defense as a rotational player.  Bennie Logan looks like a future NFL player, maybe a good one, but he didn’t produce.

The only big positive for Logan in terms of production are his tackle numbers.  Playing next to Michael Brockers in 2011, Logan managed 57 tackles, a very high number for his position.  He added 45 more last season.  Tackles are a tricky stat, but having watched Logan, I interpret these numbers as a way of showing how good Logan is at remaining involved in plays and also how well he defends gaps.  Logan only had five sacks the past two seasons, although consider that Brockers had just two sacks in his last two years.  Brockers then posted a very respectable four sacks as a rookie in St. Louis.

A couple problems for Logan:  He has good arm length with his 34″ arms but doesn’t really use them, typically going chest to chest with blockers much like Shariff Floyd does.  As a result, Logan really struggles to break into the backfield.  Rather than attempt to shed blocks, Logan tries to use leverage and a quick first step to power through blockers.  If all you want is a guy that can push the pocket but not much else in the pass rush, Logan could be worth it- but he’s a long ways from being a star pass rusher.  His other problem is that like Brandon Williams he is surprisingly weak against the run despite his size and strength.  He typically gets blown back by double teams and rarely dominates against single run blocks.  His habit of dropping his head for leverage can sometimes cause him to blow gap responsibility too.  He has the talent to be very good against the run, but it will require some coaching up.

Logan has all the tools to be a successful all-around 3-tech in the NFL which is exactly what Seattle needs the most right now.  He was awarded the number 18 jersey last season as recognition for being the hardest working member of the team, an LSU tradition that dates back to 2003.  Logan hustles to the ball and plays smart- taking good angles and knowing when to reach up for batted passes.  It’s hard to bet against a guy who pairs excellent tools with a great work ethic- even if his tape hardly flatters.  He’s got his issues and truth be told, there are a lot of tackles I’d take over him.  But like Wagner last year, something tells me that Seattle will like Bennie Logan a lot more than I do.  Call it a hunch.

(note:  Bennie Logan wore #93 in 2011)

Chip Kelly probably kind of likes this guy

Tomorrow is mock draft day and given that we’re doing trades this year, I’m going to look into the possibility of the Eagles moving down and then drafting Tavon Austin.

Theoretically they could see a fair amount of value at #4, it could be the best place to pick in the top-ten. They won’t be grinding their teeth thinking, “what if?” by picking in the top two. Last year you’d get Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III in that range. This year? Not quite so good. The Eagles aren’t worrying quite so much about that.

They’ll be able to sit there and see who goes in the top three, then make a judgement call. They’d have a few options. Eric Fisher, Dion Jordan, Dee Milliner — among others — might be available. So could all of the best defensive lineman. So while the top two or three might be wishing they were picking so high another year, Philly might be in a good place to accept their lot.

Then there’s the other scenario which suggests they might feel like those options are good, but are they exponentially greater than the options a bit later on? And while they might not feel a clinical, desperate need to grab any one of Fisher, Jordan or Milliner — the chances are others might be showing a greater sense of desperation. There are a handful of teams who could use a left tackle like Fisher. Jordan might have more pure upside than anyone else in the draft and Milliner looks like a complete corner. Three premium positions, three big needs for many teams.

The Chargers have shown relative lethargy so far in trying to kick start their franchise. They let a good guard leave for a division rival in Louis Vazquez. As far as we know they barely dipped their toe into the free agent tackle market. And what else have they done? Middling moves, almost as if they see this as a longer re-building process. Philip Rivers might disagree with that approach given he has no weapons, no protection and turns 32 in December.

Moving up might actually be the last thing they’re planning. If the plan is to build through the draft, they might even move down. I still think they have to find a way to get a left tackle. Rivers is a solid quarterback. It wasn’t that long ago he was putting up good numbers and was considered one of the handful of franchise players at the position. And now he has nothing, least of all a chance to succeed. The very least they can do is get him a blind-side tackle and another target.

At #11 it’ll be Lane Johnson (if they’re lucky) or bust. Moving up seems logical. I’m just not convinced it’s what this seemingly inactive franchise wants to do. And moving up from #11 to #4 would be costly, limiting the chance to add other key parts later (receiver, corner, pass rush — all needs).

Miami could consider a move up given they lost Jake Long, while others (Cleveland, New York, Buffalo) might consider it depending on who’s left on the board. Anyone wanting a tackle as good as Fisher probably has to get ahead of Detroit, who currently stand to start Riley Reiff on the blind side (a better fit on the right side).

If the Eagles can move down a bit, would they take Tavon Austin? They already have DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Both players have also been heavily linked with trades (both to the Colts, courtesy of some obscure tweeting by Jim Isray). I just wonder if Chip Kelly would feel like he can use Austin in the same way he’s exploited many other speed merchants during his time at Oregon? Line them up everywhere. Let them make plays. Jackson and Maclin are both quick receivers, but neither were used in the way West Virginia used Austin.

Out of all the teams who could accommodate Austin, Philly seems like the best fit. Kelly’s offense has shown how to make the most of an undersized playmaker like D’Anthony Thomas. There wouldn’t necessarily have to be a ‘Tavon Austin package’. It’s already in there as a functional part of a dynamic scheme.

Let’s say the Eagles get another second or third round pick for moving down. Let’s go one further and say they come out of the draft with Austin, E.J. Manuel and Kyle Long/Menelik Watson. Suddenly you’ve solidified your offensive line, added your answer to D’Anthony Thomas and got a quarterback that can do all of the stuff Oregon’s bevy of quarterbacks did under Kelly. All quick, rare athletes for their positions. Throw in LeSean McCoy and (if healthy) Jason Peters and things could be looking up. If the ambition is to get things rocking in Philadelphia quickly, it wouldn’t be a bad start.

It’s something I’m going to look into in the new mock. Part of me still thinks Kelly might troll the entire NFL by going for a pure west coast, orthodox offense. He did appoint Pat Shurmur as offensive coordinator. He does love Matt Barkley. Wouldn’t that be a turn up for the books? Either way I suspect Kelly’s Eagles, like Carroll’s Seahawks, will constantly keep us both entertained and guessing.

Note — Today’s piece isn’t exactly deep. It also isn’t Seahawks related, but you already know that if you’ve got this far. Today was a pretty hectic and significant day as I was able to tell my family that my wife is expecting our first child in September. That took up a lot of time as I’m sure you can imagine. I’ll be back on it tomorrow. Here’s a Sio Moore (LB, Connecticut) video to make up for it:

Reed is talented, yet he's more an accessory than a centerpiece. Which is just fine in Seattle.

I think it’s pretty likely that Seattle will draft offensive line and defensive line with their first two selections.  However, I think there are certain events that might usurp those needs.  The best bet of the bunch to upset this procession is tight end.  The 2013 draft boasts one of the better and deeper tight end groups in recent memory, and that means that it’s likely to be a position of great value in the first four rounds.

There is a good deal of controversy over the order in which those tight ends might be drafted too- meaning that some of the bigger names actually stand a chance of staying on the board longer than they should.  Who draws the shortest straw is anyone’s guess.  I’m guessing that Reed is solidly in the round two or three range, but he could be worth talking about just the same in case something unexpected happens- whether that’s him lasting until the end of round four or Seattle surprising us by calling his name at #56.

I think Seattle is pretty open about their options at tight end.  We are currently without a proven joker tight end, but it’s not like you need one and given Seattle’s extremely run heavy approach and quantity of two tight end sets, it’s not a crazy notion to have all three tight ends being of the well rounded variety.  Seattle might not be focused on acquiring a joker type, but if they are, Reed is one of the best in the 2013 draft at moving around formations from the tight end position.

That said, a joker-type is all he’s likely to be in the NFL.  At the combine he measured just 6’2½” and 236 pounds, making him both the shortest and lightest tight end at the combine out of 19 participants.

Reed posted a mildly disappointing 4.72 forty time at the combine, but on the field his speed appeared identical to teammate receivers, making that 4.72 number seem dubious.  Reed shows good ability at getting separation.  On a few occasions he even displayed quick feet and change of direction ability after the catch.

His hand measurement came in at 10″, which is on the better half of the spectrum.  In three games he didn’t register a drop, though he did lose one ball from a collision with the ground and also had an ugly fumble in the end zone.  Reed has a good catch radius, makes tough catches, and was nothing if not a reliable target.

You pair that reliability with his ability to separate, and it’s a wonder that Reed only finished with 45 receptions for 559 yards last season.  Reed was part of a team that completed a stunningly low 58 total passes to it’s entire receiver corps heading into their bowl game.  Yet despite unusual ball distribution by Florida’s offense, it never felt like Reed was the focal point in any of the games I broke down.  Glancing at his game log I found further evidence of this: Reed has never posted a 100 yard game nor has he ever caught more than 5 passes in a game.  Only twice (in his career) has he gone over 70 yards.

You take all of these factors together and it’s easy to assume that Reed was a victim of his passing offense; that he was under-utilized.  Maybe there is truth to that.  But what I can say with more certainty is that Reed was never a “star” at Florida.  He has the talent to be a receiver at tight end, but at Florida he was merely a talented accessory.  That might scare off teams looking for a #1 tight end, but Seattle is exactly the kind of place that would welcome Reed’s combination of talent and under-utilization.  Our team is loaded with talent at receiver and tight end- talent that is overlooked because the individuals within it don’t post 1000 yard seasons.  Not because they aren’t capable, but because our system spreads the football for the greater good of the offense.

The question then becomes whether Seattle wants a short, light joker hybrid that won’t likely flatten defenders as a blocker.  Reed’s effort isn’t always there as a blocker and he frequently hesitates like he doesn’t want to hurt himself when blocking.  He can get push on a moving target and is surprisingly decent in pass protection, but at his size you would be thrilled to get mediocre NFL blocking from him.

If Seattle just wants to add more receiving options for Russell Wilson and is okay with acquiring more of a specialist than a starter, then Reed could be a very nice addition for our team.  He is the most natural joker type in this draft, he runs excellent routes, separates, improvises well, and has excellent hands.  Seattle could certainly do far worse, especially if the board is fighting them at offensive and defensive line.

Arizona bound?

Carson Palmer to exit Oakland, enter Arizona?

Part of the draft process is to keep an eye on the other teams in the NFC West. One development today could have an impact for arguably the weakest team in the division.

Interesting: now “highly unlikely” Carson Palmer will be willing to restructure his contract meaning OAK pays him $13 million or cuts him.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 25, 2013

Arizona ended last year a shambles. The 58-0 defeat against Seattle was the tipping point for a season that started so brightly (4-0) and ended with a whimper. At the core of everything was a mess at quarterback. John Skelton, Kevin Kolb and Ryan Lindley all took turns to be the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. The end product was a complete clear-out of the coaching staff and front office.

Bruce Arians was appointed mainly off the back of his work with Andrew Luck during his rookie season. It seemed a formality that Arians would be tasked with working the same kind of magic with another rookie in Arizona.

Does today’s news regarding Carson Palmer change anything? Quite possibly.

The Cardinals basically have two striking needs. Their offensive line is poor overall and the quarterback position is a mess. Ideally they’d fill both areas this off-season, least temporarily. They’ve (typically) stayed clear of spending any money in free agency despite a decent crop of offensive tackles becoming available (plus a favourable market). And despite noises to the contrary, it’s highly unlikely Arians truly believes he’s good-to-go with Drew Stanton at quarterback. Not unless he’s been told a 4-12 season is OK in year one.

The Raiders are in the process of a humongous rebuild. It’s a hack job for the ages — they need to bring in the demolition crew and get to work over several years. Oakland are basically in expansion franchise mode right now, mostly because the previous regime gambled and lost on Carson Palmer being the missing link to a post-season appearance.

Paying Palmer $13m this year makes absolutely no sense. He has little to no chance of winning in Oakland, yet earns a significant salary for his efforts. They’re better off making a saving, accepting the situation and building around a young core. That could mean drafting a quarterback at #3 or in the third round. It could mean turning the keys over to Terrelle Pryor to see if he has any kind of shot to make it in the league. None of these options are ideal, but clinging onto an expensive ageing veteran at $13m makes little sense.

Palmer might earn $13m this year, but he’ll take up $15m on the cap in total. The Raiders can save $6m by moving on. That money is better off sitting in the front office, waiting to be pushed forward into next year. They need a youth movement with heavy competition, much like Seattle. In fact the Seahawks should created the blueprint for any team facing the same bleak future Seattle faced in 2010.

Oakland has to tear everything down and start again. I think GM Reggie McKenzie probably would’ve loved to do that last year, but he didn’t have a single pick in the first two days of the 2012 draft. And without the opportunity to get busy, what choice did he have put to meander onwards? Now he has a shot to make this his team. To put down some roots. He’s another Green Bay exile and will share some of John Schneider’s visions. I can’t see him clinging to Palmer in the hope he creates a miracle. A revolution is required.

If or when Palmer hits the market, Arizona seems like the ideal home. He could be another Kurt Warner. It’d buy some time for Arians in the toughest division in football (and it really is, let’s be right). It’d also allow him to concentrate on repairing that weak offensive line at #7 with either Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson or Chance Warmack. Throw in a tight end in round two (Zach Ertz?) or even a running back (Eddie Lacy?) and suddenly they have an offense that looks like it might be able to compete.

They could still draft a quarterback later on as a longer term possibility, but Palmer would provide some veteran leadership in a one or two year rental situation. While it might only produce a six or seven win season for the Cardinals, at least the Arians/Steve Keim era would have some forward momentum. And the Seahawks have shown that starting a new regime with two 7-9 seasons isn’t necessarily a road to constant mediocrity.

One realistic possibility could be the idea of going Fisher/Johnson and then Mike Glennon in round two. Certainly Glennon has the kind of arm strength Arians is used to working with. There’s something to be said for not ‘needing’ to panic at quarterback, however. I think Seattle showed that. You’d have to feel very comfortable about Glennon to go in that direction. And Arians hasn’t really hand-picked Ben Roethlisberger or Andrew Luck, so we don’t know that arm strength is the defining factor here. I doubt the rest of the division would be too concerned about that prospect of facing Glennon, even with Fitzgerald as a target. However, the Cardinals will conduct a private work-out with the NC State quarterback tomorrow.

If the Cardinals do add Palmer, Johnson and Ertz to their offense, it could provide a fourth wheel to the blossoming monster truck named the NFC West. They’d still be favourites to finish 4th in the division, but they’d certainly offer a few blooded noses along the way and re-establish some momentum. Rest assured nobody will be particularly concerned about the Cardinals if they’re starting Drew Stanton at quarterback. And I say that as a fan. But I’m really only a fan because his second name is very similar to mine.

Big day for Barkley

Wednesday is a crucial day for Matt Barkley. After an off-season of constant hand-wringing about his arm strength (can anyone remember the comparison to Kellen Moore a few weeks ago? Who said that again?), he finally gets a chance to gain some momentum.

There’s no doubting he’ll perform well. After all, when’s the last time you heard a negative report from a college pro-day? And despite a lot of negativity around his physical performance in college, I suspect there will be a handful of teams ready to put their stock in his talents.

Don’t count out the Jaguars here. I think there’s an extremely strong chance they’ll move down from #2 with teams like Buffalo looking to get hold of Geno Smith. They could possibly move down again from the #8 range to accumulate further picks. Don’t forget how Carroll and Schneider built their defense in Seattle — the core didn’t come in the first round. The Jaguars could search for role players (LEO, interior size, talented safety) in rounds 2-3.

Gus Bradley will surely be aware of Barkley’s talents having spent a lot of time with Carroll. I have no doubt whatsoever that had Russellmania never happened in Seattle, they’d be targeting Barkley to lead Seattle’s offense. We’ll see what happens. Yet as far as matches go, I think Barkley in Jacksonville isn’t an unrealistic proposition. The hoopla about their presence at the West Virginia pro-day looked a bit of a smoke screen to me (RE: Geno Smith). We’ll see what presence they have at USC on Wednesday.

Simon shines

Ohio State’s John Simon is a favourite on this blog and it was good to see he enjoyed a productive work-out today in front of scouts. He’s been struggling with a slight injury since the Senior Bowl.

John Simon/DE-OLB/Ohio St pro-day: 4.62s-40, 34inch vert, 10′ 1″ broad,7.10 3Cone, 4.2s short shuttle..caught all passes in LB drills.. — Tony Pauline (@TonyPauline) March 25, 2013

More on John Simon/DE-OLB/Ohio St:looked terrific in DL & OLB drills.Fluid and quick.Pass coverage skills & ability to drop surprising

— Tony Pauline (@TonyPauline) March 25, 2013

If you’re wondering what all the fuss is about, here’s a refresher:

Solid, but not spectacular

I’ve had a few people ask me for a review of San Diego State’s Leon McFadden.  Usually when people bring players to my attention I end up as impressed as they were.  Not this time.

First I should be clear, McFadden is not a bad prospect by any means.  But after watching the available game compilations (BYU, Boise St.), I am pretty confident that he’s not what Seattle is looking for.  In two full games, I didn’t see a single “wow” play; the closest being a routine looking pass defensed.

The shortest corner that Seattle has acquired during the Pete Carroll era is Walter Thurmond who stood 5’10¾”.  McFadden checks in at 5’09⅝”, more than an inch shorter than Thurmond.  Only 4 out of 30 corners measured shorter at the combine, and none of them are expected to be drafted high in the draft.  Seattle has made it no secret that they prefer big corners, and McFadden certainly doesn’t meet that criteria.

McFadden possesses decent bulk for his height, and tackles fairly well.  He’s not particularly physical though and can at times struggle off blocks.  There was one play in particular where a quarterback ran past the line of scrimmage at the 16 yard line and ended up scoring a touchdown before McFadden fought off a downfield block in the end zone.  He struggled with blocks in other spots too, but that particular play was pretty damning.

In terms of coverage, San Diego State played him outside and mostly in cushion coverages. His man coverage was competent but he seemed happy to stand completely still in zone- a pretty huge contrast to Robert Alford who was not only far better in man coverage, but also remained active and moved with a plan in zone coverages.

His field speed is decidedly ordinary and at the combine he clocked a very average 4.54.  For comparison’s sake, Byron Maxwell ran an official 4.43 at his combine at 6’1″ 202, and Jeremy Lane clocked 4.48 at his pro-day while standing 6’0″ even.  If Seattle is going to take a corner with 4.54 speed, he’d better stand at least 6’3″ or weigh 220 pounds.  In other words, his speed further disappoints because small players are supposed to be faster to help compensate for their size disadvantages.

There are no certainties in life, but I would be pretty surprised if Seattle selected Leon McFadden.  With below average height and so-so athleticism (including one of the lesser vertical jumps), he’s not a high upside player and he doesn’t really have the tools or even the press coverage experience to satisfy the Seahawks’ requirements.  A team that is willing to overspend on a safe, well rounded corner will select McFadden before Seattle’s 3rd round pick rolls around- another reason why this pick feels unlikely.

Talk to the hand.

If there is a story to tell with the 2013 running back class, it’s the high risk / high reward running back.  Marcus Lattimore might be the next Willis McGahee, a terrific talent that had a once bright NFL future cast into uncertainty with an awful injury during his final season.  Knile Davis seemed like a budding megastar in 2010 but missed 2011 from injury and disappointed in 2012.  Christine (pronounced “Kristin”) Michael is a former 5-star recruit that battled injuries and coaches over the last 3 seasons.  While each have tantalizing upside, each could end up leaving the board in the middle rounds despite that.

While I would have personally preferred to draft a receiver instead of trading for Harvin and all the future cap space that went with it, I love the trade for all the extraneous benefits it provides.  It finally gives the team an “out” for Leon Washington.  If the Hall of Fame takes kick returners, Washington is in it, but I never really felt comfortable with the crunch Washington put on our roster by essentially committing one of our few running back spots on someone who was essentially just a special teams player.  Harvin made Washington expendable, and with it our team finally has a 3rd spot open for a real running back.

I suspect that “plan A” for this roster spot is a diverse and explosive talent like Denard Robinson.  I’ve always thought that Robinson would be an amazing situational running back on day one, with the upside of being a return man or receiver down the road.  Seattle has met with Robinson and he’s one of the few players I can guarantee our team covets.  If Robinson isn’t in the cards though, it wouldn’t surprise me if Seattle gave a long look at Christine Michael.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCVqxFeWFoU

Last year I made the mistake of comparing Robert Turbin to Marshawn Lynch.  Both are big, fast, physical backs, but Turbin is more of a home run hitter than an evader.  The zig-zag agility and light feet that Marshawn Lynch runs with are extremely rare for any back, much less for one with his power and determination.  With that in mind, I wouldn’t compare Michael to Lynch either- although I do think his game compares very well to former Seahawk Ahman Greene.  Green was 6’0″, 220 pounds, and ran a ridiculous 40 time unofficially.  Michael is 5’10”, 220 pounds, and ran an official 4.54.  On tape though, he is explosive and has the field speed of a 4.4s type player.

There are plays in every compilation I watched where Michael “wows” with his acceleration through the hole.  This play against Mississippi State, for example (this video also included a Ryan Swope sighting).  Michael relies on that burst so that he can be more patient waiting for the hole to develop, knowing that he has the burst to react rather than being forced to anticipate.

How explosive is Michael?  Vertical jump is measured in part because it is often a strong indicator of short area burst.  At the combine Christine Michael posted a 43″ vertical.  That is not a typo.  He did that in a 220 pound body.  Unsurprisingly, his cone drill and 20 yard shuttle both ranked #1 among all running backs, despite posting an official forty time that was middle of the pack.

As you might expect, the speed, size, and power that Michael brings makes tackling him difficult, as if trying to catch a cannon ball.  Michael doesn’t have the lightest feet, but he has excellent balance similar to Golden Tate or Chris Polk.  That balance allows him to keep plays alive, sometimes for huge gains.  This combination of traits allows him to break tackles with his body and continue for yards after contact.  He has a lot of power and can push a freestanding pile similar to Marshawn Lynch.

Michael has a few minor flaws.  He doesn’t make the sharpest cuts and only really shines with his maneuverability at higher speeds in open spaces.  He’s not likely to be more than an average cutback runner.  He’s more of a north/south guy than a “moves” back.  Michael also has a problem with ball security (another reason for the Ahman Greene comparison).  I didn’t get to see much of him as a blocker, but as a receiver he didn’t seem at all instinctive.

Really, if we are talking about his tape- this guy should be a first or second round pick, without question.  The reason he won’t be is because of his reputation off the field.  He was in the coach’s doghouse at Texas A&M and he even missed two interviews at the combine because he overslept.  Seriously.  In fairness, snippets taken from his interviews show a maturing young man that learned from his mistakes and considers his former A&M coach a “real good friend.”

He also has some injuries in his past- not surprising given his extremely punishing style.  Those past injuries include a broken leg and an ACL.

These issues press a first round talent into the middle round range.  General managers tend to view draft picks as business decisions, and it’s very common to see outstanding talents fall disproportionately far because of high risk- especially if we’re talking character risk.

In a year that figures to have some very exciting options in the middle rounds at running back, Christine Michael is my favorite.  He may not be a complete back, yet, but he also possesses mega-star upside in Tom Cable’s power zone running game.  Seattle can afford the risk and I don’t sense Michael is a problem child too difficult for Carroll to manage.

Robert Alford is a master in coverages, yet blunders against the run

After a very impressive Senior Bowl and a strong NFL Scouting Combine performance, Robert Alford has been given some attention on youtube in the last month, meaning we can finally say something meaningful about his NFL prospects and how he fits the Seahawks.  Alford was linked to the Seahawks in the past couple months, over at rotoworld, if memory serves.

What’s interesting about that rumor (which I will post when I find it) is that Alford is not likely to be a late round pick, unlike most of Pete Carroll’s other investments at the position.  Alford ranks 105th on Tony Pauline’s big board (about halfway between our 3rd and 4th rounders), and pre-combine there was a lot of talk that suggested he was a “lock” for the second round.  Then again, a lot of the round two hype was pre-combine when Alford was expected to run in the 4.2s, which he didn’t.  Still, Alford could be a surprisingly early pick in an unpredictable corner group.  Would Seattle take a corner at #56?  That seems unlikely, but with needs being toned down by a strong free agency, Seattle legitimately has the option to go corner early should they choose.

Alford’s game is antipodal in its extremes- almost like a cornerback version of Bruce Irvin.  He is one of the better coverage corners I’ve ever scouted, and is excellent at tracking the ball carrier in run support.  Unfortunately, he’s miserable at making open field tackles or finishing sacks despite showing promise as a blitzer.  For a guy that presses at the line like he’s 6’2″, he tackles like he’s 5’6″.

Southeastern Louisiana used Alford mostly in press.  Alford gets a great press at the line and he can often sustain it for many yards down the field.  Once he releases that press, he has excellent ability to stay in the hip pocket of the receiver.  He has a good sense of knowing when to look back for the football.  Alford played at a low level of competition, but receivers struggled to shake his coverage even slightly.  Alford knows how to look for the football and overall I’d give him close to the highest grade possible in press/man coverage, with the only caveat being his level of competition.

Alford also shines in zone, showing some of the best polish and instincts I’ve seen in a good while.  When he releases a receiver, he continues to move with a plan in mind.  There is never indecision in his zone coverage.  Once he drops a target, he’s already drifting to the next logical one, standing close enough to jump the route on a poor throw.  I really can’t stress enough with words how instinctive and polished he looked while doing this, the term “natural” comes to mind.

Alford explodes in short areas and would be a nice tool to have on corner blitzes.  His instincts at tracking ball carriers is way up there- roughly on par with Manti Te’o.  He knows where runners are going almost before they know it themselves.

It’s so disappointing then that Alford struggles with missed tackles and bad angles in close spaces.  In a lot of ways, you could compare his run support to Zaviar Gooden: shot out of a cannon, but sometimes that velocity causes him to blow by the target.

Alford ran an official 4.39 forty at the combine, one of just five corners to do so.  Alford’s speed translates on the field, though more in the short area than in the long one.  Alford nearly returned a kickoff for a touchdown during the Senior Bowl but was caught from behind by Desmond Trufant, despite the fact that Trufant was only one hundredth of a second faster on his track forty.  That hints at Alford’s field speed being a notch lower than his track performance.

Teams tested Alford in cushion coverages, and to my eye he seemed far less impressive.   Then again, I never really liked conservative cushion coverages and always felt they put the defensive back at a disadvantage on anything other than a deep ball, and Alford isn’t going to be burned on the deep ball.  Seattle would use him in press and in zone, and he looks excellent in both of those.

While Alford’s ability to finish a tackle worries me greatly, I remember the philosophy this front office goes by.  They are always looking for special players who’s best football is still ahead of them.  Alford’s issues certainly seem coachable, in fact I wouldn’t be surprised if he was coached out of them in year one.  In terms of size and coverage ability, he has some similarities to Walter Thurmond, who is outstanding when healthy.  Alford has that competitive edge that you know Pete Carroll loves.  You always have to be careful when a player is linked to a team- it being lying season and all.  That said, I’ve seen enough to think that Seattle’s rumored interest in him is probably genuine, even if he doesn’t physically impose the way that Browner or Sherman can.