Totally unrelated image

Tony Pauline is reporting that most team’s have given approximately fifteen players first round grades this year. It’s not a huge surprise. While it’s true that there’s a deep, wide ranging talent pool that stretches as far as the early third round, it’s a class that lacks sure-fire first round talent. Players going in the 40-55 range will compare favourably with those going in the 20’s. And that means anything could happen.

By acknowledging this we start to get an even better understanding as to why Seattle traded for Percy Harvin. Let’s say the Seahawks are one of those teams with about 15 ‘first round’ players on their board. What are you actually going to get at #25? The answer is, nobody even close to the level of Harvin’s talent. The fans in the PNW should appreciate that they have a front office with the kind of vision to see that and the cojones to make the move. Frankly, I couldn’t care less whether the Harvin trade works out. The odds are stacked in Seattle’s favour here and they were right to take a shot. So while Vikings fans get to contemplate the possibility of adding a guy like Manti Te’o with that extra pick, the Seahawks get one of the most dynamic players in the NFL. It was win-win for all concerned.

Hardly anybody is going to feel satisfied with their draft position this year. I suspect nearly every team in the first round will be looking to move up or down, targeting specific needs and hunting for value. That’s obviously the case every year, but it could be even more extreme in 2013. And that could lead to cheap trades galore.

I wouldn’t be surprised if, like last year, we get up towards 10-12 trades on day one. Little moves where a team is happy to drop for the price of an additional fourth or fifth rounder. The new CBA encourages movement in the draft, but a deep class lacking elite talent will make it even more entertaining. We might see several minor deals (eg — Cleveland and Minnesota flipping spots a year ago) as teams jostle around. The best chance of a blockbuster trade could be if Darrelle Revis gets moved. I suspect as the board unfolds he’ll start to look like a more attractive proposition. A team like Tampa Bay with a ton of cap room could essentially move from #13 into the 20’s, taking whatever deal they can get, then send the pick to New York for Revis.

We could also see a lot of ‘surprise’ picks, at least based on what the media has reported thus far. All those players who’ve been knocked since the end of the college football season could suddenly emerge as first rounders. Players we talked about during September to December (Matt Barkley, Arthur Brown, Zach Ertz, Robert Woods) could end up being first round picks. And everyone will act shocked. There’s basically a pool of around 50 players who could theoretically go in round one. Whether it’s scheme, a hunch, athletic dynamism or consistency — we’re going to see teams going beyond conventional wisdom and rankings to take guys they feel comfortable with.

The one position I think we’ll see a rush on is left tackle. That’s not such a bold statement, given it remains a premium position in the league. Really there are three tackles you’d feel comfortable starting on the blind-side in year one — Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson. And then there’s a Grand Canyon of space between the next guy. With teams like Oakland, Arizona and Buffalo all adding ‘stop gap’ quarterbacks this week, they’ve positioned themselves to go after different needs early. They aren’t handcuffed. And that could help keep the left tackles in the top 6-8 picks.

This is the first area we could see genuine movement. San Diego and Miami are on the outside looking in and might feel obliged to make a move into the top five or six to get a left tackle. They’ll need to because suddenly Kansas City, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Arizona all look good bets to draft one of the top three. If Joeckel goes first overall as expected, Fisher and Johnson surely won’t get passed Detroit and Arizona?

The other player who could generate a bit of a spark is Geno Smith. He appears to have emerged as the most desirable quarterback in this class (personally, I still prefer Barkley). Despite the moves by Oakland, Arizona and Buffalo — Matt Flynn, Carson Palmer and Kevin Kolb are not going to answer any long term problems. All three teams need a quarterback for the future. Badly. The question is, have the three new additions this week given them the flexibility to wait?

For example, all three teams could now wait until the early second round. Barkley, Ryan Nassib, E.J. Manuel, Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon, Tyler Bray, Matt Scott. There are plenty of options there. If nobody bites on Smith in the top ten, how far does he fall?

I’m guessing someone will take Smith in the top ten, but have the three most likely suitors called each others bluffs with their moves this week? Jacksonville probably cringed when they saw the Palmer/Flynn trades. Those two players are more likely to be given the chance to start than Kolb in Buffalo. If you’re the Bills and you want Smith, you might feel less inclined to get ahead of Oakland. I’m guessing the Jaguars were hoping for a bit of a bidding war. Now he might fall to #8 with the Cardinals addressing the offensive line and Oakland adding a much needed pass rusher. I think Buffalo is the most likely fit for Geno Smith.

I reckon Jacksonville is a potential option for Matt Barkley. Gus Bradley will know all about his qualities having spent the last three years with Pete Carroll. He’s a player you can build around, and I suspect Seattle would’ve been hoping to structure around the USC quarterback had they not struck gold on Russell Wilson. If he lasts until the first pick of day two, Barkley could be the pick for Jacksonville. And that would be outstanding value. It’s also the reason why I think someone would look to move into the 20’s to get Barkley if he remains on the board.

What happens at defensive tackle? While it’s a pretty deep class, there aren’t many ‘must have’ players. I think a lot of teams will like Sylvester Williams for example, but will any feel inclined to draft him in round one given he’ll be 25 this year? Is he a true difference maker? I’d argue he’s good, not great. Just like a lot of the DT’s. Really it wouldn’t be a surprise if he went in the top-25 or made it all the way to #56.

Sharrif Floyd, Sheldon Richardson and Star Lotulelei should all be early picks (and are likely to be among the 15 players given first round grades by most teams). After that there’s just a cloud of mystery. Can anyone honestly say they have a good idea where Sly Williams, John Jenkins, Kawann Short, Johnathan Hankins or Jesse Williams will land? They could go anywhere. First. Second. Maybe even third.

Defensive tackle remains a good shout for Seattle in round two, but none of these players are freakishly tall and long. Jenkins is massive, but they’ve looked at guys who are tall and 305-320lbs rather than tall and nearly 350lbs. Kawann Short is a natural three technique, but they don’t seem to be looking for that. In all honesty, despite the need, it wouldn’t shock me if Seattle passed on all of the names listed in the paragraph above and went after a Montori Hughes (6-4, 329lbs) later on. Major character red flags could keep Hughes on the board longer than most expect.

A lot of people don’t think the Seahawks to go linebacker early but I kind of disagree. I don’t think they are handcuffed to amazing speed, although there’s every chance they’ll identify an unknown speedster in the later rounds who just fits into the scheme and works immediately. But I also believe there’s every chance they’ll love what Khaseem Greene brings to the table if he’s there at #56. He’s an impact player. Take that 4.6/4.7 speed an offset it with his mass-production at Rutgers. Not to mention he could be Russell Wilson on defense with his character and heart. He’s a terrific player. His floor might be Tampa Bay at the top of round two (Greg Schiano, Rutgers).

It also wouldn’t shock me if others like Arthur Brown (unlikely to be available) and Sio Moore receive some interest from the Seahawks. I wouldn’t rule out a starting WILL in round two. Why would you rule anything out with this team?

Well, maybe you’d rule out quarterback. John Schneider was part of a front office that drafted Brian Brohm in round two despite having Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers on their roster. It’s also worth noting at the time that Favre was doing his ‘will he or won’t he retire’ act every year and Rodgers had some convincing to do as the prospective heir apparent. Brohm was probably drafted to compete for a starting role. Any quarterback drafted by Seattle this year won’t be competing to usurp Russell Wilson.

Of course, if a certain player is too good to pass you make the pick and hope to turn it into value down the line. However, it’s very difficult to turn the #56 pick into a first rounder if the player is riding the bench. I think it’s more likely they look at the position from round three onwards. Arizona’s Matt Scott will be worked out by Seattle on Friday. That’s one to keep an eye on.

Johnthan Banks is the type of player that falls due to speed issues and then everyone wonders how that ever happened a few years later. I would love, love, love the opportunity to draft him in round two, even if starting outside corner isn’t the biggest need. This front office has been able to add talent at corner with later round picks, but I don’t think they’d be totally against picking the right guy early. Banks would be a hard pass.

I watched Jarvis Jones’ pro-day work out this weekend. I’m worried for the guy. I had him dropping deep into round two in last week’s mock. That could become a reality.

I’m fascinated by Eddie Lacy’s stock. Again, he’s another player who could go anywhere. Tony Pauline spells it out: “The frustration over Lacy and the fact he’s pushed his workout back to April 11th is beginning to boil over. Scouts are questioning whether Lacy is too injured to run or just too slow.” There’s just something about a Lynch-Lacy backfield that seems so ‘Seattle’. He could fall.

And then there’s the offensive line, which could use further depth although I’m not totally convinced that will be a round two target. There are swing tackles likely to be available in that range (Long? Williams? Armstead? Mills? Thomas?) but I do think it’s more of a later round option. Tom Cable will have identified his guy, just as we saw with J.R. Sweezy last year.

I guarantee after day one of the draft you’ll have about 10-20 players you’ll be excited about taking at #56. That’s the way this draft is. It’ll be unpredictable, exciting. And it won’t matter that round one will slide by without any major Seattle shocks this year.

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Tyler Thigpen

It is often said that a 4th round pick in the draft or perhaps $4 million a season in salary is a worthy price for a top shelf backup.  And yet, how many teams actually invest that heavily?  Peyton Manning had Jim Sorgi and the calamitous Curtis Painter.  Tom Brady had Brian Hoyer.  Drew Brees had Chase Daniel.  Aaron Rodgers had a 7th round Matt Flynn before he had UDFA Graham Harrell.   Without looking, how many current backups can you name for Matt Ryan, Big Ben, Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Eli Manning, or Cam Newton?

The exceptions are future starter hopefuls behind old starters such as Brock Osweiler and Ryan Mallett or insurance policies for (at the time) unproven starter situations like Kirk Cousins and Brian Brohm.  Of them all, only Cousins could really be argued as being drafted for the purposes of being a long term backup, and he only cost a 4th round pick, had low salary, and had very strong potential as a trade chip in the future.

There are two ways to view the value of a backup quarterback.  The first is the backup as insurance policy.  Jim Sorgi and Matt Flynn are good examples of low cost, quality insurance policies that reduced the damage of losing a franchise quarterback for a few games during a season.  Curtis Painter shows the absolute downside of a poor insurance plan, though without Painter there probably isn’t an exec of the year award on Ryan Grigson’s desk right now.  Most people view the backup quarterback in this manner.  Since major injuries to starting quarterbacks are so rare, most teams do not feel the need to make a major investment in an insurance policy they will probably never need.

The second view of the backup quarterback is that of the investment.  It has been used masterfully in the past by the Ron Wolf / Ted Thompson era Packers, the Andy Reid Eagles, and now the John Schneider Seahawks.  This philosophy acquires quarterbacks at low cost, develops them behind a highly established starter, and then moves them later at a profit.  The Packers used this method to develop and move quarterbacks like Mark Brunell, Aaron Brooks, and Matt Hasselbeck.  The Eagles did so with Kevin Kolb and actually traded their starter (Donovan McNabb) when low cost backup Michael Vick proved superior.  I suspect they signed Vince Young on the cheap hoping to repair his image and value for a future trade.  Seattle acquired Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Flynn, and Russell Wilson, and successfully traded the two quarterbacks that failed to win the starting job.

You can read up on John Schneider’s post-Flynn-trade comments here, or just listen for yourself.  John Schneider doesn’t say a lot about his post-Flynn plans, but did drop a few small hints:

“There’s different avenues we can go, obviously,” Schneider said Monday morning on 710 ESPN Seattle radio. “We have a plan in place and it’s contingent on who that player is. There’s veterans who are available right now, some very talented guys actually, and some guys guys that are all football and have been down that road before. … And then there’s also guys in the draft that we think are pretty interesting.

“We have a plan and we’re gonna take it as it comes. We’re not gonna force anything and we’re not gonna get in a situation where we have our hands tied.”

It’s been documented elsewhere that John Schneider described finding a quarterback that is a hard worker, a leader, an enabler… all that good “tilt the field” kind of stuff.  Someone with upside, too.

To me, it’s fairly clear from this language that Seattle is looking for another “investment” style backup- someone that they can acquire at low cost and turn into a profit down the road.  Green Bay used their backup quarterback position as a draft pick generator.  That’s why they are looking at quarterbacks every year.  John Schneider was Ted Thompson’s right hand man in Green Bay and has gone on record saying that he searches for quarterbacks every year.

Russell Wilson is the only quarterback on the roster today, although Chris Mortensen reports that the Seahawks will soon re-sign Josh Portis.  Schneider’s “hands tied” comment reads to me as wanting to keep options open.  Seattle doesn’t need to tax themselves with quarterback reps to determine the starter as they did last season, so they could have Portis, a free agent signing, and a draft pick duke things out in August and move from there.  Seattle entered last preseason with four quarterbacks on their roster, and gave a tryout to GJ Kinne, who would have been the fifth had they signed him.

With that in mind, here are some names to throw against the wall.  It goes without saying, most of the free agent options suck:

Free Agency:

Josh Portis: Portis will reportedly be signed back soon. He has excellent mobility, arm talent, and can check through multiple reads.  Unfortunately, he received extremely few reps last preseason and his performance vs. Oakland suffered greatly as a result.  I suspect that Seattle always hoped to bring Portis back for another training camp but wanted to wait until after dealing Flynn to avoid tipping their hand.

Vince Young: Mortensen linked Young to the Seahawks earlier today on twitter (“add Vince Young to the list” were his exact words), though it’s unclear if he’s sourced or speculating.  Vince Young is an obvious candidate in that he’s low cost, has the athleticism in abundance for read option, and has the potential to rehabilitate his image and turn into a potential trade chip down the road (he’s 30 next offseason, so it wouldn’t be anything exorbitant even in a best case scenario).  Where Young does not fit is in the leadership and work ethic criteria, though it’s possible he might be a changed man after some of the hard times he’s been through.  Young comes with the added perk of not costing Seattle any compensatory pick consideration in 2014, as he was released by the Bills in 2012.

Tyler Thigpen: Many are liking the Seahawks to Tyler Thigpen who was recently made a free agent when Buffalo voided the 3rd year of his contract.  Thigpen actually beat out Vince Young for the 3rd quarterback job in Buffalo last season (after taking a pay cut).  Rob could probably tell you more about Thigpen than I can, but what I can say is that he’s more mobile than his combine 40 time would indicate, and that he had a 18/12 TD/INT ratio with a good number of rushing yards during his only starting season (at Kansas City).  Unfortunately, he has a very low career completion rate and is the definition of a journeyman.  Barring a revelation, it’s hard to see Thigpen turning into a trade chip down the road, so I see him as more of a placeholder than anything else.

Matt Leinart: Seattle very nearly signed Matt Leinart in 2011 with a chance to compete for the starting job, but Leinart turned down that chance to remain a sure backup for Houston.  He lasted just one more year for the Texans before lasting just one year in Oakland.  There have been some unsourced rumors connecting Leinart to Seatttle, but I don’t think Seattle would go this direction until after the draft, if at all.  He wouldn’t be much of a read option quarterback, and he lacks the intangibles John Schneider prefers.

John Skelton: Skelton was released a few hours ago, probably to make room for an imminent Carson Palmer acquisition.  Skelton can be elusive in the pocket but he’s not a mobile quarterback, and he doesn’t have the kind of frame for constant hard contact.  That plus he’s horrible.

Brady Quinn: How bad was Carolina when they lost to Kansas City 27-21 last season?  Brady Quinn put on a clinic, completing 83% of his passes for 8.7 yards per attempt with 2 TDs and no picks, good for a 132.1 passer rating.  For the season though?  He completed 57% of his passes for 5.8 yards per attempt with a 2/8 TD/INT ratio.  Yikes.  Amazingly, that was the only game Carolina lost in their final six contests.

Kellen Clemens: Another lousy journeyman nearing 30.

Seneca Wallace: Wallace (33 years old in August) could actually make sense as an emergency 1 year stopgap option should everything else fall through.

Troy Smith: Smith is a lot like an older, more experienced Josh Portis.  I’ll admit to being a fan, both at Ohio State and during his time with the 49ers in the Singletary era.  Unfortunately, the last time that Smith made a 53 man roster was during said era (2010).  He was a highly inconsistent quarterback, but he had his moments.  He has a terrific arm and is famous for his speed.  Unfortunately, he’s probably too old to flip for a pick down the road.  He turns 29 this July, and is a long way away from reaching his potential.

Tarvaris Jackson (if released in August):  With comments from up on high in Buffalo hinting at a move for a quarterback in the draft and the addition of Kevin Kolb for competition, the odds of Tarvaris Jackson making the 53 man roster seem to be on shaky ground.  His contract is only for $1.75 million though, which could act as great job security even if he fails to earn the starting job.  That said, none of that money is guaranteed, and if Jackson ends up the odd man out if Buffalo drafts a quarterback and only carries two on the roster.  Jackson has obvious familiarity here and posted a 93 passer rating over his final five starts (when he was approaching full health) during the 2011 season in Seattle.

Darron Thomas: Undrafted and unsigned, Thomas has a point guard skillset at quarterback.  He was highly productive in a read option system and (in my opinion) his flaws were blown far out of proportion, although I am not privy to the interviews and private investigator reports NFL teams have.  He was part of the Calgary Stampeders practice roster last season.  Chandler Harnish and Case Keenum are currently on practice squads and could be worth keeping an eye on as it’s not uncommon for teams to release fringe-roster players in June.

Tim Tebow (if released):  His completion rate is 48% for his career.  Yet he also has a respectable career 17/9 TD/INT ratio and a 75.2 career passer rating.  Tebow’s intangibles and leadership are legendary, as his college career and 2011 season put on full display.  If Tebow was very low cost, I think he could be worth a flier on the 90 man preseason roster, but trading for him would require a draft pick of some kind and would mean assuming his $2.6 million cap hit in 2013.  There is no way trading for Tebow makes sense, but in the event he is released he could be worth considering for the purposes of preseason competition.

Tomorrow I’ll have a follow up post discussing some of the draft options.  As you can see, it’s not likely that Seattle will find much from free agency, though I do think Seattle will at least add a body or two from the list above for the sake of competition.

As Seahawks evaluate a few veteran QB options (add Vince Young to list), they do plan to re-sign Josh Portis, cut late last November.

— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) April 2, 2013

QB Matt Flynn traded to @raiders for 2014 5th-round draft pick & conditional pick in 2015 draft shwks.com/6eqy

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) April 1, 2013

I don’t think it’s much of a coincidence that Seattle has approached Kam Chancellor about an extension a month before the 2013 draft.  Doing so gives the front office either a chance to sign him to an extension, or get a preview of what might be a difficult, drawn out contract discussion.  In the event that talks are not fruitful (and so far, the two sides seem far apart), it would make sense for Seattle to consider a strong safety prospect in this draft, particularly if one of good value falls to them.

Shawn Williams has some of the best tools of any 2013 safety prospect.  He stands just a hair short of 6 feet tall at 213 pounds while running a brisk 4.46 and putting up 25 reps on the bench press.  He had less fantastic results in agility drills, though they were still respectable.

Unfortunately, there isn’t much of Williams to go off of on youtube and the compilation above makes him look pretty lousy, to be frank.  He gambles in coverage (and loses).  He is a poor tackler that plays almost as if to avoid injury.  He has very few positive plays and numerous negative ones.  That said, Williams’ speed and size could hold some appeal to Seattle as Chancellor’s speed in coverage proved to be an issue at times last year.

As an isolated decision based purely on my grade from what you see above, I probably wouldn’t draft Williams, though Pete Carroll seems to gravitate towards special athletes in need of coaching help.  That’s Shawn Williams in a nutshell.  I don’t think Seattle will draft him early on, but if he slides on draft day I could see him gaining traction with the Seahawks around the 4th or 5th round.

… The Oakland Raiders select:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEwGbfY8rQ8

To date, Seattle has acquired and then started (at least one game) the following players at offensive tackle (numbers are from their combine measurements):

Tyler Polumbus:  6’7½”, 300

Breno Giacomini:  6’7⅛, 303

Paul McQuistan:  6’6⅛”, 312

Russell Okung:  6’5¼”, 307

James Carpenter:  6’4⅜”, 321

Frank Omiyale:  6’4¼”, 310

Only two of these six players stand under 6’5″.  Of those two, Carpenter weighed 321 pounds (and has since ballooned well about that number).  Omiyale compensated for his height with 36″ arms and a slightly above median weight (based on the 2013 tackle group).  Omiyale has only played one season here (as a backup) and remains a free agent.

I mention this because David Bakhtiari (pronounced Bock-T-are-E) impressed the heck out of me when I watched his compilation vs. USC (above), and yet he stands just 6’4¼” and weighed in at just 299 pounds, the lightest out of 30 tackles at the combine.  If Seattle drafted him, he’d be tied for the shortest tackle acquired during the current Seahawks regime, and he’d also be the lightest.

It might be a bit much to label Bakhtiari a “mauler”, but he has excellent hand placement, lightning quick feet, superb leverage and plays with a very high motor.  He may not “destroy” blockers, but he consistently moves them.  I was stunned to see that he only ran a 5.1 in the 40 yard dash, as he’s one of the best tackles in this draft class at attacking the second level.  His combination of traits would be ideal in a pure zone, with enough power to work in our power zone system.  Despite weighing just 299 pounds, Bakhtiari managed 28 reps on the bench press.  Only 4 out of 30 tackles posted better during the combine.

While Bakhtiari is short for the position, his 34″ arms are adequate for either tackle spot.  While he doesn’t handle the bull rush quite as well as guys like Menelik Watson and Jordan Mills do, he handles pressure around the edge better.  He played left tackle for Colorado and looks like a natural pass protector.

He’s well spoken and comes across as highly intelligent in this press conference from last September.  Some scouting departments give this fairly significant weight as offensive line can require a lot of learning/quick thinking and by extension, intelligence.  He displays maturity beyond his years and knows exactly what he’s signing up for by pursuing the NFL.

There aren’t a ton of 6’4″ starting tackles in the NFL, so invariably when you find a 6’4″ tackle prospect the automatic comparison is Jordan Gross of the Carolina Panthers, a two-time pro-bowler.  Bakhtiari makes a stronger case than most, however.

Gross (at the 2003 combine) is on the left, Bakhtiari on the right:

Height: 6’4½” / 6’4¼”

Weight:  300 / 299

Arm Length:  33¼” / 34″

40 time:  5.05 / 5.10

Bench Press:  28 / 28

Gross didn’t just manage to play tackle in the NFL, he’s been a left tackle for ten NFL seasons, and was a major contributor to Carolina’s turnaround in the running game during that period.

A three year starter for Colorado, Bakhtiari declared as an underclassman, perhaps motivated by Colorado’s 1-11 season in 2012.  He played left tackle the last two seasons.  As a freshman, he played right tackle across from then left tackle Nate Solder.  Bakhtiari never played inside, but given his size, quickness, work ethic and intelligence, it’s widely believed that he could transition inside.  According to Bakhtiari, he’s been approached by teams asking him about playing guard or even center, despite his lack of experience playing those positions.  That potential for versatility will definitely help his case with Seattle.

Jordan Gross was the 8th overall pick in the 2013 draft, but David Bakhtiari isn’t even listed on Tony Pauline’s top 160 or even ranked in NFLDraftScout’s database.  I’d personally feel very comfortable giving Bakhtiari a 2nd round grade based on that compilation against USC, but he might not leave the board until the 5th or 6th round.  He might offer a great value option should the Seahawks opt to address tackle later in the draft.

The 2013 draft class is among the better offensive line classes I’ve ever seen.  An offensive tackle will (deservedly) go #1 overall.  There are three offensive tackles that on talent deserve to be top ten picks.  There are two guards that will probably end up being selected in the top twenty.  It’s as crowded a start as any, and only so many teams will consider offensive line a top priority.

In a much weaker environment, Menelik Watson would be the stereotypical draft hype guy that goes way sooner than he should based on his athleticism, as Jason Smith did in 2009.  Unfortunately for him, the high volume of superior options pushes Watson’s stock down to it’s rightful place: somewhere between the end of the first round and the end of the second.

Seattle is always looking for players that could improve from coaching and have the athleticism to dominate if they achieve their full potential.  They have one of the best talent developers in the business with Tom Cable.  Watson fits both about as well as he possibly could.

Watson never played American Football in high school.  That’s because he grew up in Manchester, England.  He played soccer instead.  Wanting to escape the tough streets from where he came, he sought to pursue a professional athletic career.  Problem was, he wasn’t sure what that would be.  At first he tried his hand at basketball for Marist’s basketball program.  He’d later attempt a switch to boxing.  People he met often assumed he was an offensive line recruit, and that idea eventually led him to try out for a small school football program, having never played the position.  That was in 2011.

Funny enough, the college that gave him a shot was Saddleback college in California, the very same for which Kyle Long (who transferred to Oregon) was the starting left tackle.  Long faced Watson during practices and recognizing his talent, urged the staff to start him at right tackle.  Watson got the job and caught on in a big way.  He would transfer to Florida State the next season.

Watson has a great story, though it highlights the reason why he might conceivably slip into the second round.  He never played football before 2011, and he only played one season against high level competition.  How high of an investment do you make on a player who very well might not be ready for a year or two to compete in the NFL?  Teams that need a tackle bad enough to select him early presumably would want him to start right away.

Seattle is in a fairly unique situation.  Breno Giacomini is a good player that was bogged down by penalties for much of the last two seasons.  The team might want to plan for life after Giacomini, but I don’t at all sense that they are uncomfortable with him starting.  Whichever tackle Seattle does draft, it seems unlikely that he’d play much in 2013.  The lack of experience disincentive could be strong for other needy teams, but it is almost non-existent for Seattle, especially considering Tom Cable’s track record with developing lineman who were far less gifted than Watson is.

It’s hard to judge Watson on face value from his game compilations.  He’s so new to the game that you can’t be sure which flaws to be fearful of and which to brush off.

What I can say with more certainty is that I love how quick his feet are for a 320 pounder.  I also love how he keeps his shoulders back when delivering his punch in pass protection.  His arms measured 34 inches, which is basically average for a tackle, but his results in pass protection were as if he had 35 or 36 inch arms.  Keeping the shoulders back and delivering a strong punch inside is a compensating factor for arm length.  Defenders had no chance when they attempted to bull rush him, and his foot speed allowed him to keep pace when opponents attempted to beat him around the corner.  As a pass protector, he reminds me an awful lot of Russell Okung when I scouted him back in 2010.

Watson has obvious power in the running game, but ironically he struggles to maintain his hands during drive blocks despite using his hands very well in pass protection.  He’ll often slide off run blocks then stand up and stop, an obvious sign that he’s not sure what to do.  He’s fast to the second level despite his size.  This coupled with his quick feet led many to speculate that Watson would light up the combine and shoot himself out of mid round obscurity and into the first round.

Except he didn’t.  In fact, Watson’s 40 time, 3-cone, and short shuttle were among the worst for the offensive tackle group.  This despite shedding ten pounds from his reported 2012 playing weight.  He also measured a slightly disappointing 6’5⅛” after being widely reported at 6’6″ or 6’7″ prior to the combine.  Of course, height isn’t really a major deal, as John Moffitt, JR Sweezy, James Carpenter, and Russell Okung all stand 6’5″ or less.  Tom Cable’s mentor, Alex Gibbs, actually preferred his tackles to be exactly 6’5″.  On the whole though, Watson had one of the more disappointing performances at the 2013 combine, especially for a guy that is banking on his athleticism to get drafted.

Funny thing is, I’m not sure GM’s care how he did.  All indications from excellent sources compiled at outlets such as Rotoworld.com suggest that Watson’s first round stock has actually solidified post-combine instead of deteriorating.  On the other hand, the sourced Tony Pauline only has Watson 67th on his post-combine rankings.

I suspect that Watson is unlikely to reach the #56 pick, and he might not even come that close.  But if he does make it, I would be surprised if Seattle didn’t draft him.  He would be one of the very best players available, he fits one of the team’s biggest positional draft targets, and he is a great fit for the Seahawks roster situation, Tom Cable’s profile, and the Seahawks’ general draft philosophy.  Few players would thrill me more to see at the 56th overall pick.  I suspect the Seahawks would be thrilled to have a chance at his talent as well.  It wouldn’t even surprise me if Seattle traded up targeting him.

The Seahawks and Raiders have in fact agreed to draft-pick compensation on a tentative trade to send Matt Flynn to Oakland. Deal’s close.

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) March 29, 2013

So it appears the Matt Flynn era (can we call it an ‘era’?) is coming to a close. Various reports (see above) have a deal with Oakland in the works. It all rests on Carson Palmer now. He is scheduled to take up $15m against the cap this year. Cutting him will save $6m. Inheriting Flynn’s contract via trade will cost the Raiders $5.25m. So it makes sense that they’d try one last time to get Palmer to negotiate before making a move. If he refuses, they have little option but to cut him.

The Raiders can’t carry Palmer — who has zero shot to succeed on that team — at $15m. Trading for Flynn gives them a veteran stop-gap for two years while they rebuild. Unfortunately for Flynn, he couldn’t be walking into a worse situation. Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III would struggle to lift this ailing franchise.

Compensation remains unknown, although don’t get your hopes up. If the trade is completed, it won’t be a blockbuster. Oakland went into the 2012 draft with no picks in the first four rounds. They were given compensatory picks in round three and four, otherwise new GM Reggie McKenzie would’ve been waiting until round five to start a titanic rebuild. He’s already without a second rounder this year as part of the Palmer trade, so he’s not going to be giving up more high picks.

I suspect the most likely scenario is a late rounder as we saw with Tarvaris Jackson last year, a conditional pick in 2014 based on performance or a flipping of picks. For example — Seattle and Oakland swap fourth rounders.

This was an interesting piece by Yahoo’s Jason Cole, which perhaps explains why demand for Flynn’s services has been lukewarm since he left Green Bay. Cole: “McKenzie (Oakland GM), a former Packers executive, knows Flynn well from his days as a backup in Green Bay. However, the scouting report among former Packers executives is that Flynn’s lack of arm strength will eventually be exposed by opposing teams.”

What about a replacement in Seattle? For me, you just draft a guy. It’s what most teams do. New Orleans had UDFA Chase Daniels backing up Drew Brees until he recently switched to Kansas City. Green Bay had 7th rounder Matt Flynn backing up Aaron Rodgers, and then went with UDFA Graham Harrell. New England had 7th rounder Matt Cassel, then UDFA Brian Hoyer and now third round pick Ryan Mallett backing up Tom Brady. For years Peyton Manning was backed up in Indianapolis by 6th rounder Jim Sorgi.

Seattle might as well do the same.

There are quarterbacks in this class worth a look in the later rounds or in UDFA. Sean Renfree, Colby Cameron, Zach Dysert, Alex Carder, B.J. Daniels. They could go for their own version of Mallett in round three if Tyler Bray is still on the board. Let’s also remember that John Schneider was part of a Green Bay front office that drafted Brian Brohm in round two despite having Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers on the roster already. So don’t rule out a quarterback being taken at #56. The cost per year would be between $600k-1.2m over four years. Essentially, great value with the upside of a possible Kevin Kolb-type trade down the line.

It’s safe to assume they’ll have an open competition in camp for the backup role. This could include a couple of rookies and a veteran on the minimum salary. Tyler Thigpen could be a good shout — a personal favourite after I saw him live for Kansas City in 2008.

If or when Flynn is traded, it’ll be a relief to have a situation where we aren’t talking about the backup quarterback any more. Two years of chatter about Charlie Whitehurst followed by a year of Matt Flynn is enough. The New Orleans media and fans never gave this much attention to Chase Daniels. Roll on the day where Seattle’s backup is simply the guy who models the latest range of caps and doesn’t earn a relative fortune to hold a clipboard.

Update

It appears the Raiders want Flynn to take a pay cut. As the Tweet below kind of spells out, I wouldn’t be optimistic about any relatively high picks being involved here.

Matt Flynn is set to make about same $ as Matt Hasselbeck. Raiders want Flynn to take pay cut. Shows how they see him.

— gregg rosenthal (@greggrosenthal) March 29, 2013

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Qw0GN4lrKc

Once considered among the best corners in the 2013 draft, Jonathan Banks’ draft stock might be in trouble after clocking a 4.61 in the forty at the combine.  Consider that just three other corners ran in the 4.6s, and of those three only Cal’s Marc Anthony is expected to be drafted (in the 7th round).  General managers tend to have a “cutoff point” system, which is part of the reason the Seahawks got Russell Wilson in the 3rd round last year.  You’d have to think that cutoff point for corner speed would be faster than a 4.61.

Since we don’t know what the actual NFL draft boards will look like, we can only hazard a guess as to how much his stock will suffer.  Tony Pauline of Sports Illustrated has excellent NFL connections and had the most accurate big board last year.  I don’t know how good his connections are this year, but he now has Jonathan Banks all the way down at #63, which potentially puts him in play for Seattle at #56.  I think Seattle is pretty unlikely to draft a corner this early, but Banks is a player worth looking into given Seattle’s scheme and how it de-emphasizes corner speed.

Banks has excellent tape.  I think he made a mistake running the forty at the combine.  You wouldn’t suspect speed problems based on what he did on the field.  Had he forced teams to grade him just from his tape, I’m pretty sure he’d be a mid-first rounder.  In three games I don’t recall him ever being burned by a receiver even once.

Mississippi State used Banks in many ways.  They had him blitz quite often and even lined him up as an outside linebacker a few times.  He even returned punts.  I know it’s cliche, but Banks really is a “football player” in the truest sense.  No matter how Mississippi State used him, Banks looked natural in every task given.

One of the things that stands out about Banks is how quick his feet are.  He can plant and explode with good short area quickness.  He chops his feet very well and is tough for ball carriers to dodge in the open field.  His backpedal is pretty to look at.  He keeps his hips down too.

When Banks is allowed to face the quarterback, he shows excellent ball skills, hands, and return ability after the interception.

I should clarify something I said earlier- when I say Banks has good short area quickness, I really mean he has a quick first step or two.  If he has to close a five to ten yard gap, his closing speed appears to be below average.  That can be a bit of a problem in coverage sometimes- he’s not able to make the kinds of plays that require closing a moderate amount of space in very little time.  Banks could end up being limited in zone coverage, especially when compared to alternatives like Robert Alford.

Banks is a big hitter and usually a good tackler, though he often goes for the hit instead of wrapping up, and in one instance that led to a touchdown given up on a kickoff.

I think Seattle will like Jonathan Banks a lot.  Not only do they value speed less at corner, but they value long arms a lot more than most teams do- viewing arm length as a compensating factor for speed.  Jonathan Banks has 33⅞” arms- that’s enough arm length to play offensive tackle.  Demetrius McCray of Appalachian State has the same arm length, but no other corner comes within even a full inch of arm length.  When considering the arm length, Seattle might view Banks as effectively having the coverage ability of a 4.55 player.  Banks is a physical player the defends the run well and provides added value as a blitzer.  Pete Carroll likes to blitz his corners.

I think a late round player like McCray is more likely to be a Seahawk than Banks for many reasons, but if the Seahawks love Banks polished skillset and feel they can afford to draft whatever they want in the late 2nd round, Banks at #56 could be a possibility.