Quarterback

Seattle is looking for a read-option capable quarterback backup quarterback.  In my opinion, there are only three of them among the well known names:  Geno Smith, EJ Manuel, and Matt Scott.  I think Smith is under-rated in media circles and I would be surprised if he’s not a top five pick, but that’s a discussion for a different time.  There were whispers that Manuel was a potential top 15 pick in the 2013 draft a year ago, similar to the kind of early hype Ryan Tannehill got.  Given Manuel’s physical gifts and obvious parallels as a prospect to Colin Kaepernick, don’t be shocked if he ends up going somewhere in the first round.

Matt Scott is a favorite of mine and I had been waiting for the right time to explain why I think he’d be great for us.  Unfortunately, word surfaced shortly after the combine that Matt Scott is a much more popular prospect with scouts and coaches than media types portrayed him, and his status has probably been elevated to a late 2nd round or early 3rd round type pick.  Unless Seattle drafts Matt Scott at #56 overall, they probably aren’t getting him.  That obviously isn’t happening, and if I had to bet, I’d keep an eye on Jacksonville in the 3rd round if they don’t select Geno Smith #2 overall.  Their quarterbacks coach is reportedly a huge Matt Scott proponent.  Since Matt Scott probably won’t be a Seahawk, I’ll have to put that post on the back burner and see if I run out of more relevant prospects to talk about first.

I like Tyler Wilson especially as a backup, but calling him a read option capable quarterback feels debatable, and will he fall far enough in the draft for Seattle to consider him?  Something tells me that quarterback probably isn’t a first four rounds priority.

After that, there isn’t much.

I’ve cut against the grain in the past for several quarterbacks that were dismissed out of hand by the majority, including Russell Wilson.  I’m not afraid of standing alone for a player I see potential in.  That said, Marqueis Gray won’t get that endorsement from me, he’s just simply not a quarterback.  Even his own team had him playing receiver near the end.  Gray had more rushes than pass attempts last season.  Having watched him some, I’m not even sure if he checked his first read before running half the time, much less a second.  His mobility looks less impressive than his 4.72 forty time as well.  And now I’ve already wasted too many words on him.  I’d put Denard Robinson in this category as well.

John Skelton was cloned and renamed Zac Dysert.  Dysert has good arm talent and can make throws from within the grasp, but locks onto receivers and has slow feet no matter what his forty time might indicate.  Like Skelton, he’s capable of annoying you with fluke plays, but eventually reality will crash down on him.  I personally do not view him as a read option capable quarterback.

Tyler Bray… moving on.  Not a mobile quarterback.  He’d be a great pick for Cincy as a backup- as he reminds me of a poor man’s Andy Dalton.

Colby Cameron is cited by some since he has read option experience and didn’t embarrass himself in the forty.  Cameron has a lot of problems though.  He officially weighed in at just 212 pounds, but I would guess that he played around 200 flat.  He has a very skinny frame that does not look conducive to taking hits.  He also has a sidearm release and at just 6’2″ that could result in a very high number of batted passes and accuracy problems.  He has a big windup on his throws- though like Colin Kaepernick coming out of Nevada- he compensates for a very inefficient motion with a ton of arm speed.  Cameron’s overall technique isn’t pretty.  I feel like I see players like Cameron every year and they never last in the NFL, much less turn into impact starters.

There are things I do like about Cameron though.  He plays the game at a very fast pace, a rare quality.  He has solid footspeed on the field, somewhere between Jay Cutler and Tony Romo levels.  He has an impressive feel for the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield, and he showed himself capable of checking through multiple reads, then tucking to run after completing several reads.  He can change reads quickly, though he isn’t as smooth at checking reads as guys like Russell Wilson or Matt Barkley.

There is enough to like that Seattle might consider him, but I’m worried enough about his mechanics, accuracy, and lack of durability potential to pass on him if the choice were mine.

Then you have BJ Daniels who I highlighted yesterday.  If you detected a tone of excitement in that post, it was partially from a sense of relief that I found a worthwhile consideration in an otherwise desolate landscape for late round read option quarterbacks.

It is possible that Seattle does not draft a read option quarterback this year.  After all, John Schneider said his “primary model” included keeping Matt Flynn.  If he does, the pressure to add a quarterback is lessened.

If Seattle does draft a quarterback, I could see five possibilities:  Tyler Wilson if he tanks, Matt Scott if he doesn’t go as early as speculated, Colby Cameron if they feel comfortable with his flaws, BJ Daniels if they are okay with having two short quarterbacks.  That’s four, with the fifth option being a quarterback that essentially nobody knows about- ala Josh Portis in 2011.

Would Seattle spend a high pick on a quarterback?  That strikes me as unlikely, though it would become a little less unlikely if Matt Flynn is traded.

Wide Receiver

There was a tone of excitement in John Schneider’s voice when he acquired Stephen Williams on a dirt cheap two year contract earlier this winter.  Some of you might be asking “Williams who?”  Williams had been a failed member of Arizona’s wide receiver corps; you might say he was their version of Ricardo Lockette.  That said, you know else was a castoff from an NFC West team in recent times?  Danario Alexander.  Alexander had a monster second half of the season in 2012, and finished #1 in the NFL in yards per target.  Alexander proved to be one of the NFL’s most explosive deep threats, even if just for half of one season.  Williams has very similar height/weight/speed/potential to Alexander.  Maybe Williams is another Lockette, or maybe he’s another Alexander minus the injuries.  All I know is, John Schneider was pretty geeked about acquiring him.  “We got him!”   Those were his exact words as I recall.

Ahead of Williams on the depth chart is the following crew:  Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, and Doug Baldwin.  John Schneider recently admitted that wide receiver was not a need this offseason, but they just felt Harvin was too good an opportunity to say “no” to.   Would Seattle pass on this excellent receiver class as a result?  Maybe, but then again, we have ten draft picks.  What’s the harm in trying to jump on a value pick here and there?

As much as I’d love to get Ryan Swope at #56, that feels unlikely, unless Seattle feels they are likely to lose Golden Tate to unrestricted free agency in 2014.  I think our best bet is later in the draft for tall receivers to compete with Williams, guys like Mark Harrison or Rodney Smith.  I prefer Harrison, but Smith has some yards after catch ability and great measurables, so he’s worth keeping an eye on as well.

Tight End

I think Seattle is very comfortable with Zach Miller and Anthony McCoy as a starting duo.  That said, I do think tight end could be an early priority for a few reasons.  The first is that Seattle will run into cap problems next season, and that could force them to approach Zach Miller with a restructure, and that carries a strong risk of having to release him.  Having a guy like Zach Ertz or another starter option gives Seattle leverage, and an insurance policy if the team is forced to terminate Miller’s contract.

The second is that Seattle doesn’t truly have a “joker” type tight end that is versatile enough to play several roles on offense.  Chris Gragg, Vance McDonald, Jordan Reed, Dion Sims, Nick Kasa, Luke Wilson and Jake Stoneburner are some examples.   Luke Wilson in particular could be a guy to keep an eye on since he’s almost more of a Riley Cooper type receiver than a true tight end.  I’m lukewarm on Luke Wilson as a prospect, but he does strike me as a “Seahawky” pick at tight end.

My favorite tight end is Tyler Eifert.  I was just about to give him a glowing writeup the day of the Harvin trade.  Without a first round pick, we probably don’t have much chance to get him.  His overall game is excellent but it’s his jump ball ability that I think would be a devastating weapon in our offense with Russell Wilson.  If he somehow slides into round two, I would love to see the Seahawks make a dramatic move up the board to get him.

Zach Ertz will probably be an early to mid 2nd rounder.  In a draft that has close to 100 players carrying round two grades, not to mention a very competitive tight end group, it’s conceivable that he could reach the #56 pick.  I’d be a big fan of that pick as well.

Tight end is one of the positions in this draft where I could see Seattle grabbing one almost anywhere.

Running back

With the departure of Leon Washington there’s a new opening on Seattle’s roster at running back.  Seattle has an interesting choice to make here, as there are some interesting bell-cow type backs in this draft with question marks.  Marcus Lattimore and Knile Davis in particular.  Seattle has the roster spot and lack of urgency required to draft Lattimore and stash him until his leg heals.  Knile Davis is a gamble but his upside in a power zone is astronomical.  He has some Terrell Davis type tape from his 2010 season, and his combine measurables are almost identical to Ahman Green’s.  Both backs were 6’0″, 220, and ran a shockingly good forty time.

I don’t think Giovanni Bernard reaches the 56th pick, but if he did, I wouldn’t complain about selecting him.  He has excellent smoothness and speed but is also tough and smart- he reminds me a little of Doug Martin last year.  Utah State’s Kerwynn Williams is a similar player.  Cierre Wood had a nice career at Notre Dame and posted decent enough combine numbers, but appears to be destined for the late rounds.  I think he’d be a great pickup as his game reminds me of Chris Polk.  He’d give Seattle a well rounded, versatile player.

I think the most likely option is that Seattle targets a dynamic and versatile player for that 3rd running back spot- with Denard Robinson being the front runner.  Robinson has elite speed with excellent rushing talent, and might develop into a Percy Harvin type receiver with time.  He can also return kicks.  He’s about as Seahawky a pick as any in this draft.  If Seattle took him in round three I would not be shocked, though I would hope they get him later.

Maybe they draft a Vai Taua type that can play both running back and full back.  Michael Robinson is 30 years old and the fullback position means a lot to our offense.  In fact, maybe Seattle just drafts a second fullback outright.  It’s very hard to predict what Seattle could do here.  Which I guess is a good thing, because having more options means more opportunity.

Offensive line

Seattle is set at center with Max Unger and Lemuel Jeanpierre.

Seattle’s situation at guard is unsettled but make no mistake, Seattle has talent there.  JR Sweezy progressed much faster than anyone could have possibly envisioned.  He is already a very good run blocker with elite second level blocking ability.  He has elite athleticism (outperforming prospects like Matt Khalil in agility drills) and also has long 34″ arms for good measure.  He makes a lot of mistakes in pass protection, but the future is very bright for Sweezy and I would expect him to be an asset next season.  John Moffitt is a technician, not a juggernaut.  He won’t blow you away but I noticed him creating several instrumental blocks on rushing touchdowns last season.  I’d feel comfortable grading him as an average guard last year.  James Carpenter has a ton of power and pulls well, he reminds me of the kinds of guards the 49ers have.  He just needs to stay healthy and stay in shape.  Rishaw Johnson showed a lot of promise as a road grader type last preseason.  Paul McQuistan had a solid year starting at left guard.  Overall, I think we are set at guard at least for 2013.

For the most part I am content with Breno Giacomini.  A lot of his negative value comes from his penalty issues early in the season, but he seemed to improve on that area by the end of the season.  He is a force in the running game, and he’s had some notable victories against top shelf pass rushers.  That said, both Giacomini and McQuistan are free agents after this season, and Frank Omiyale is a yet unclaimed free agent right now.  Drafting an offensive tackle as an upgrade makes sense.  Not only as an upgrade, but as a way of saving some cap space that will be desperately needed next offseason.

Tom Cable’s preference so far has been for very tall offensive lineman that generally weigh less.  Athleticism, power, and nastiness are emphasized over pass protection and polish.

My favorite, easily, is Menelik Watson.  Unfortunately it’s looking like a poor showing at the combine can’t keep him out of the first round.  That’s too bad, because his athleticism and power on tape is eye-popping.  Less impressive tackles have gone top ten in previous drafts.

Terron Armstead is a small school option that tore up the combine and looks like a developmental type with a lot of power and quickness.  I like that he wears my number.  We haven’t had a #70 worth remembering since Michael Sinclair.

Brennan Williams is massive, powerful and very athletic.  He’s 6’6″, 318.  He doesn’t show a ton of nastiness in his play and has a problem with his hand placement, but I could easily see him being picked by the Seahawks in the early to mid rounds for his physical gifts alone.  Williams was as high as #5 overall in a September mock draft on this very site.  As Rob mentioned, Brennan Williams is the son of former Seahawk defensive lineman Brent Williams.

Jordan Devey doesn’t look athletic on tape, but he tested surprisingly well at the combine.  He checks in at 6’7″ and 317 pounds.  Devey plays with a nasty streak and is adept at getting defenders on the ground.  Lumbering but powerful and probably a little too nasty for his own good at times, he reminds me of a taller Richie Incognito.  Devey will likely go undrafted.

John Wetzel needs to be coached up some but he has very quick feet for someone in a 6’7″, 315 pound body.  He has a ton of strength too and plays with a chip on his shoulder.  Not a ton of stuff out there, but what I’ve seen of him strikes me as a Tom Cable type.  Like Devey he’s not the fastest guy but he has a lot of power.  Wetzel will likely go undrafted.

And of course, you have Jordan Mills, who was linked to the Seahawks, a team that might draft him “earlier than you’d think.”

There are many more offensive tackles, and I’ll probably break them down three at a time over the next six weeks.  Those are just a few I thought I’d mention.

Fitting it all together

Here is a rough guess of what John Schneider’s draft pockets might look like on offense right now:

Quarterback: Very late rounds unless someone like Matt Scott or Tyler Wilson tumbles.

Wide Receiver: Rounds 5-7, barring an extreme value opportunity.

Tight End: Rounds 2-5.  A good tight end class creates incentive for Seattle to grab one relatively early.

Running Back: Rounds 5-7, barring a draft steal falling into their lap.

Offensive tackle: Rounds 2-5.  Adding a second one in the 7th or later as competition is possible.

Kicker: Maybe in the 7th.  We’ll see.

–

There will be surprises, but in a predictable world, Seattle’s draft plan might look something like this (combining the draft pockets from both offense and defense):

Round 2: Defensive tackle, Offensive tackle, Tight End, Corner is a fringe possibility, as is a pass rusher if someone like Corey Lemonier is there.

Round 3: Defensive tackle, Offensive tackle, Tight End, Corner is a fringe possibility

Round 4: Defensive tackle, Offensive tackle, Tight End, Corner, Safety, Linebacker

Round 5: Offensive tackle, Tight End, Corner, Safety, Linebacker, Receiver, Running back

Round 6: Corner, Safety, Linebacker, Receiver, Running back

Round 7: Remaining needs and value selections

As you can see, this is a really wide open draft for Seattle so it isn’t easy to narrow things down much.  That said, I think it’s pretty likely that Seattle will go defensive tackle, offensive tackle, and tight end with their first three picks, though there will be room for surprises depending on how the board falls in each round.  I think Seattle will probably draft a cornerback later, but their interest in Robert Alford hints at it being a surprisingly early possibility.  I think Seattle will probably bypass LEO given the additions they’ve made on a crunched roster, but I wouldn’t rule it out if an unexpected value falls in their lap.

Last night I was watching game compilations on some of this draft’s top corners, more out of curiosity than of any kind of Seahawks relevance.  I started up a game compilation of Xavier Rhodes- a probable top 20 pick- against the University of Southern Florida.  I was only about 3 plays in though before the opposing quarterback caught my attention and started to steal the show. A quarterback by the name of BJ Daniels.

Right away, I noticed that this is a bulky quarterback, built for running. He was a strictly read option quarterback that sold play action very well and had maybe the best on-field mobility in this draft, not just really fast, but shifty and instinctive. He also displayed a pretty big arm with good throwing mechanics and above average footwork.

Since I had no idea who he was, I assumed he wasn’t in this draft. But as it turns out, he is.  And nobody is talking about him.

Now, there are reasons- great reasons- why he’s not expected to be drafted.

First, he’s short. He’s listed at 6’1″ some places, 6’0″ at others, and even 5’11” in a few spots. I can believe it, since he has that squatty kind of “muscle hamster” type build that Russell Wilson has and for which Doug Martin got his nickname. However tall he is, he’s a ripped 218 pounds, and other than an ankle injury that cost him a couple games at the end of his final season, he’s been injury free despite his run heavy style.

As a four year starter, his career completion rate is just 57.3%. That’s disappointingly low, and low completion percentage is one of the more potent negative indicators for a quarterback prospect. Consider this though- and this might blow your mind- Russell Wilson’s career completion rate in 3 years at NC State? 57.8%. When Wilson went to a real offense at Wisconsin, his completion rate skyrocketed to 72.8%. His completion rate with the Seahawks was 64.1%.

What little I can find of Daniels, he looks accurate. Could his completion rate be down thanks to a weak supporting cast, similar to Wilson at NC State?

Daniels has a decent career YPA of 7.4 but just a tepid 52-39 TD-INT ratio. That ratio looks quite a bit better though when you factor his 25 career rushing touchdowns.

I’m not saying that Daniels is a surefire star, but I like him a lot. If nothing else he impressed me in limited looks and I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a projected undrafted quarterback with a more impressive highlight reel than this one. His style strikes me as a bit of a blend between Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, though obviously with less mental talent than Wilson and less physical talent than Newton. USF fans speak very highly of Daniels not only as a quarterback, but as a leader and hard worker and I can’t help but wonder if good coaching and a great supporting cast might show him to be a hidden gem in this draft.

In a draft class that expects to be fairly desolate for read option quarterbacks, especially in the later rounds, Daniels stands out as an option for teams that are willing to overlook his lack of height.  One prospect from last year that Daniels reminds me a little of is GJ Kinne, and it’s worth noting that Seattle invited GJ Kinne for a workout last July. Both have similar height and squatty muscular builds, and both were fearless rushers with similar throwing ability.

In case you’re wondering whatever happened to Kinne, he signed a contract with Chip Kelly’s Eagles a couple weeks ago.

Teams passed on Kinne, and will probably pass on Daniels, because both are “too short.”  The Seahawks have the open-mindedness to consider undersized quarterbacks, and whether it’s with one of our four 7th round picks or with a call in free agency, I think Daniels could be a player to keep an eye on.

The ultimate late round competition at weakside linebacker:  Jayson Dimanche

Hat tip to Scott formerly of 17power for this next one.

The 2013 fireworks display from the small school ranks continues.  Dimanche is not considered a draftable linebacker by most draft sites.  And yet his game (as a 3-4 outside linebacker) looks an awful lot like Jarvis Jones.  Dimanche measured at 6’0.5″ 231 pounds at his pro day, and ran a 4.53 forty with a 38″ vertical.  I always deduct some for pro-day forty times, but even with that deduction, Dimanche is one of the fastest linebackers in this draft.

Further, he shows explosive speed on tape and has incredible pass rush instincts.  I don’t think it would be a stretch at all to see him competing on our roster at the WILL spot, especially if Dan Quinn wants to be more aggressive with his linebackers.  And while we already have Bruce Irvin, I could see Dimanche fitting in nicely in a Raheem Brock type role on 3rd downs, which could come in handy if Irvin graduates to LEO status in the next couple seasons.

Every draft has great players that nobody talks about.  Sometimes they are in plain sight (Bruce Irvin and Russell Wilson last year, Ryan Swope and John Simon this year).  It’s easy to see how someone like Dimanche is anonymous, but I would think that after what Russell Wilson did last season, overlooking a star quarterback with a similar skillset out of the Big East would be improbable.  And yet, it’s happening again, this time to BJ Daniels.  Will Seattle capitalize on the league’s small-mindedness again in 2013?  Here’s hoping.  Grabbing an anonymous stud like Dimanche is something I’ll root for as well.

After a flurry of activity last week, Seahawks fans can be forgiven for wondering why things have gone quiet all of a sudden. They’ve come to expect excitement. And it’s been at least a few days since something exciting happened…

John Schneider spoke to John Clayton on Saturday with a few interesting nuggets. Above you’ll find the first hour of today’s newly titled ‘Brock Huard Show’ where they replay the interview with Schneider. I found this quote particularly interesting:

“There’s a plan in place here, and there’s several different phases to free agency, so we’ll see how that goes… But in the meantime, we’d really like to just kind of focus on our own guys, our younger players that we’ve drafted.”

It’s time to extend some contracts — and it’s not too difficult to work out who will benefit here.

Kam Chancellor is a free agent in 2014 and he’s set to earn just $1.3m this year. I suspect they’ll feel like he’s done more than enough as a former 5th round pick to warrant an extension. One of the key philosophies within this organisation appears to be a desire to look after players who prove their worth. Although Chancellor didn’t quite live up to his 2011 performance last year, he’s still part of arguably the best secondary in the NFL. I’m guessing they’ll want to keep the band together. Anyone second guessing any decision to extend Chancellor’s contract should click here.

Golden Tate is also a free agent in 2014 with a deal worth $880K. It’s a paltry figure for a player who should remain a key figure within Seattle’s offense (even despite the addition of Percy Harvin). Tate has developed a chemistry with Russell Wilson and the pair appear to be good friends. It’d make sense to tie him down to an extension to make life easier for the young star quarterback. He needs familiarity and playmaking quality. He needs guys who can make something out of nothing. Tate showed last year he can do all of these things. The juking touchdown’s against Chicago, Minnesota and Carolina, the long bomb against the Jets, ‘that’ play against the Packers. Seattle needs to keep this guy around.

They could also look into a possible extension for Earl Thomas, despite his contract expiring in 2015. He’s due $3.5m this year and $5.175m in 2014. A new deal wouldn’t necessarily inflate those figures greatly, but would add years to his contract and ensure he gets paid handsomely over the long term. Thomas has grown into a defensive leader and ended last year as possibly the leading safety in the NFL. He’s staying in Seattle beyond 2014, that isn’t in question. They won’t let him get away. The only question is when they start to talk about a new deal.

The Seahawks have structured the Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett contracts in a way that’ll make it easier to re-sign existing players on the roster. Avril’s deal is actually only worth $13m with incentives according to Brian McIntyre and his cap hit in 2013 is just $3.75m. Which is pretty astonishing. Michael Bennett’s cap hit in 2013 will be $4.8m. As a duo, they’re taking up slightly more room than Matt Flynn ($7.25m).

It basically means the Seahawks have $6.43m in cap space (per Clayton) available this year. The only reason they’d choose not to spend it is to push cap into 2014 to aid contract negotiations. So getting stuff done now really just saves time and rewards 2-3 players that really deserve their money.

The only stumbling block could be the mega-deal signed by Dashon Goldson in Tampa Bay worth $41.5m. He’ll earn $9m against the cap in 2013 and 2014, with earning potential of around $8m in 2015 and 2016. That’s probably the starting point for any new contract for Thomas, perhaps pushing this particular re-sign into next year. An expensive receiver market (Greg Jennings, Percy Harvin, Mike Wallace) could also make for tricky talks with Tate — even if he’s a less established player.

Perhaps one of the reasons we haven’t seen any movement on Alan Branch (or any other defensive tackle or linebacker for that matter) is because they’re waiting to see where they’re at when negotiations for players like Chancellor, Tate and maybe Thomas are concluded. This appears to be an off-season based around priorities and opportunism. The #1 priority would’ve been to improve the pass rush. Job done. Priority #2 would’ve been to get an impact player with the #25 pick. Again — job done (just a month earlier than anyone imagined). Now the third priority might be keeping the core of this team together for the long haul.

It’s a priority that might drift on for a few years yet. As guys like Richard Sherman, K.J. Wright and eventually Russell Wilson become eligible for new deals, that will likely engulf any available spending money. We might not see the kind of calculated moves we saw this year for Avril and Bennett — and we’re very unlikely to see the big splash moves for guys like Sidney Rice and Zach Miller.

In fact you could probably make a case for 2013 being Seattle’s best chance to challenge for a Super Bowl. It’s not such a ridiculous suggestion — they’re in the perfect storm right now. They’ve added key free agents, they can still accommodate expensive veterans like Rice, they can make a big trade for Percy Harvin and they have a group of young Pro-Bowl/All-Pro starters earning a pittance (Wilson, Sherman etc). Soon those players won’t be earning a pittance any more and it’ll start to suffocate the cap. Players like Rice will move on with replacements needing to be found in the draft at a cheap price.

The 2013 Seahawks might be the most talented they’ll ever be. That doesn’t mean it’s championship or bust this year. Far from it. But they may never have such a balanced, youthful and loaded roster like this again. It’ll be almost impossible to maintain from a financial point of view. There will be future off-seasons where the needs extend beyond simply finding a big body to play defensive tackle and a WILL replacement for Leroy Hill. This is a unique year for this franchise.

In other news…

– The Seahawks were awarded two 7th round compensatory picks today. The addition of Matt Flynn and Jason Jones cancelled out the moves that saw John Carlson move to Minnesota and David Hawthorne head to New Orleans. Seattle gets the picks for losing Charlie Whitehurst and Atari Bigby. It means they have ten picks in the 2013 draft — 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 7, 7, 7.

– It’s a big week for Star Lotulelei. He’s expected to participate in Utah’s pro-day on Wednesday and we should find out more about the heart condition that kept him out of the combine.

– I’d recommend reading this X’s & O’s piece from a Minnesota Vikings fan courtesy of Field Gulls on how Seattle can get the most out of Percy Harvin.

– You will notice there’s a new image at the top of the sidebar these days. Seahawks Draft Blog is now pleased to be an associate of the NFL’s official online store. I’ve never asked for any donations from you guys, but the blog does come with monthly running costs that come out of my own pocket every time. So all I ask is if you’ve enjoyed five years of this website and are planning on buying a new Percy Harvin jersey — do it through the link on this site and help me out along the way.

– Some people have asked about San Jose State tight end Ryan Otten. Here’s his tape vs BYU, Colorado State and Utah State:

(Be sure to check out Rob’s article on Gavin Escobar earlier today where he compares the San Diego State playmaker to Anthony McCoy.)

For months we’ve studied this roster, listened for clues, and scoured the press wires for rumors.  We looked into contract situations and tried to determine where Seattle might want to get younger or more cost effective.  We worked hard, and I would like to think we were on the right track.  The performances at the NFL Scouting Combine helped finally bring the picture into focus.  We felt that Datone Jones was probably the favorite in round one, with a receiver (perhaps Ryan Swope) being a likely target in round two, with an outside pass rusher perhaps being a target in round three (Corey Lemonier, Brandon Jenkins, Cornelius Washington, etc).  I would have felt very comfortable with that trio of projections.

Seattle had money to spend, but most of it was rollover cash and the team has myriad priority free agents just over the horizon.  John Schneider said that he might “dabble” in free agency.

Instead, he posted at least arguably the most electric opening to free agency in the league this year.  Had Percy Harvin been a free agent, Seattle would have signed, in my opinion, three of the top five free agents available, with Harvin topping the list. It was a masterful showing that completely shattered the previous draft model we had developed.  I doubt there has ever been a more exciting opening to free agency for Seahawks fans than the one that just passed.  So much for the “stand pat” theory.

There isn’t much money left to spend, but I have to believe Alan Branch will return.  Seattle needs depth for both Red Bryant and Brandon Mebane as well as a defined rush defense oriented 3-tech.  If you were Branch, and the money was close, would you prefer to return to Superbowl favorite or play for a rebuilding team such as Jacksonville that probably doesn’t have him in their long term plans?  If Branch does leave, there are options in the draft.  And if Seattle does retain Branch, adding a well rounded 3-tech or a pure interior pass rusher project still makes plenty of sense in the long term.

I think Steven Hauschka will probably be back.  That plus the money for draft picks essentially uses up what money the team has left.  After that, it will just be a matter of signing extensions for next year’s players, and figuring out where that money will come from.

Seattle could probably skip the 2013 draft and still win a Superbowl next season.  They are set just about everywhere with an average or better starter.  This means that the 2013 draft will shift focus to three new areas:  drafting for value, drafting for specific roles, and drafting for potential future needs.  Here’s how I think the 2013 draft priorities will look after free agency adjusted the team’s big board:

Defensive Tackle

I am a huge fan of the Michael Bennett addition.  Letting him leave in the first place was among the bigger mistakes of the Tim Ruskell administration.  Having watched him last season, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he took off in production when being moved away from the 3-tech and more towards a Justin Tuck type role.  Bennett has enough explosive upper body power to bully tackles and tight ends for cheap sacks, and he’s fast enough to run around an off-balance blocker.  If he’s moved inside, he’ll draw a lot of double teams and he won’t capitalize on that power move so much.  He also graded very highly by Pro Football Focus as a run stuffer, so it would hardly surprise me if he essentially steals Red Bryant’s starting 5-tech job by next year (along with the money that Red Bryant would be making).  I think he can manage as a 3-tech but at just 274 pounds I think he’s probably only a situational player there.   And given his obvious value at strong side end, I think it’s wise to get him reps there as often as possible.

This means that Seattle probably shouldn’t consider the 3-tech issue fixed just yet, especially since Alan Branch and Clinton McDonald are still free agents- and Jaye Howard is far from a shoe-in on the next 53 man roster.  I personally view Bennett as being half a 3-tech, and we have several 3-tech spots to fill.   We still need to add interior pass rush specialist depth and at least one- preferably two- run stopping specialists.  We need to always at least have the option of lining up an extra big body with Brandon Mebane to protect Bobby Wagner in obvious rush situations, since Wagner will often struggle with free blockers.  It would also be nice if those run stuffers had at least some pass rush ability.

I think Seattle will try to retain Branch and then add one more “Alan Branch type” and one more “Jason Jones type” in this draft.  If Sylvester Williams reaches the #56 pick, he could be strongly considered since he is a terrific all around defensive tackle- similar to Alan Branch with more pass rush ability.  Bennie Logan is a solid option as a “Alan Branch” type as well, though I view him as more of a mid-round prospect that will be an average NFL player.  I think he moves well for his size and defends the run well, but he isn’t a sensational athlete and didn’t dominate at LSU.  Abry Jones is an under the radar option from Georgia’s loaded defense who fits this mold too.  He might be had in the 7th round.  Jordan Hill is a mid-rounder that may not be great against the run but controls gaps very well.

It appears Clinton McDonald might not be back, and if they replace him it will probably be with a pass rusher type who possesses 4.8 forty type speed (since McDonald and the departed Jones both ran the forty in that area).  Obviously, if Datone Jones reaches our pick, he would be a terrific addition, but that seems extremely unlikely at this point.  Kawann Short isn’t that fast, but he could make sense too, though he’s also highly unlikely to reach us.  There are some intriguing projects in the mid rounds, but most of them did not play defensive tackle in college.  Lavar Edwards, Malliciah Goodman, and Joe Kruger all possess size and speed similar to Jason Jones, but unfortunately all of them played defensive end in college.  John Simon was a end/tackle hybrid in college and might be an option as well.

(Note from Rob — Clinton McDonald was tendered by the Seahawks. This means he’ll be part of the roster in 2013 unless another team signs him to an offer sheet. If that happens, the Seahawks get a 7th round pick as compensation.)

Lavar Edwards’ combine numbers read a lot like Datone Jones with longer arms.  Edwards:  6’4″, 277 pounds, 35.5″ arms, 4.80 in the forty, 1.64 ten yard split.  Jones: 6’4″, 283 pounds, 33″ arms, 4.80 in the forty, 1.63 ten yard split.  Jones is a deserving 1st round pick.  Edwards played very few interior snaps, but showed excellent explosion off the snap and good power.  He’s not going to blow you away with his tape, but he has the tools to be a high upside pass rush 3-tech.  Goodman is a similar story, with measurables that compare to Greg Scruggs.  Joe Kruger- brother of Paul Kruger- played mostly as a 3-4 defensive end and excelled with a more physical style of play.  I think his conversion to the 3-tech would be more streamlined than Edwards or Goodman.  Kruger is 6’6″, 269, ran a 4.83 in the forty, and has the core strength to play inside.  He also has a lot of potential to add weight on his frame if needed.  There’s also John Simon, who I’ve talked about before.  I think Simon will be a star for some lucky team as he plays much bigger than his size.  Armonty Bryant might be a possibility if Seattle thinks he can handle a hybrid role.  He has the quickness and core strength for it.  I expect most if not all of these options be available in the middle rounds of the draft.

Defensive End

Cliff Avril was given Leroy Hill’s number, which means he can play either defensive end or linebacker.  If Seattle views Avril primarily as a LEO, that means they are already carrying one more defensive end than they did last year, so adding another seems doubtful.  If they view Avril as a linebacker that can sub at LEO, then it’s conceivable that they might draft a LEO if there is a value they just can’t say no to.  Perhaps an athletic pass rusher like Corey Lemonier, Margus Hunt, Devin Taylor, or Cornelius Washington.  Ty Powell, Trevardo Williams, and Jamie Collins could be potential considerations, but I personally view all three of them as linebackers.

Quite frankly, I think this years’ defensive end class is stunningly weak.  The only defensive end I even like as a value pick is Corey Lemonier if he reaches the 2nd or 3rd round.  I think that John Schneider would probably agree with me, and I think the spending spree at defensive end shows it.  This was a much stronger free agent defensive end class than draft class, and I think John Schneider was absolutely right for getting the Seahawks in the mix there.

I wouldn’t completely rule out a defensive end addition, but I think it’s very unlikely.  It would have to be a “too good to turn down” value such as Corey Lemonier or Margus Hunt in the mid rounds.

Linebacker

As I hinted at in my “USC backup crew” article, I don’t think Seattle views linebacker as a pressing need, and since then they’ve added a potential part time linebacker with 4.51 speed in Cliff Avril.  Given the quality that Mike Morgan and Malcolm Smith showed in limited looks the last two seasons, I think we are likely to see them starring in a Moffitt/Sweezy type platoon at weakside linebacker in 2013.  Avril will likely replace KJ Wright at SAM in some situations and might also see some action at WILL when he’s not lining up as a defensive end.  Given that Avril played on the strong side at Detroit and has linebacker experience in college, I could see him being a really nice piece on our defense from the SAM spot, acting a bit like a 5th lineman.  I’m actually a little geeked about the pre-draft status at linebacker right now.  We have weapons in the linebacker crew.  A complete array of them.

That doesn’t mean we couldn’t try to add another.  I’m pretty sure Seattle will at least try.  Unfortunately, this is a below average linebacker group across the board and it’s particularly unimpressive if you are searching for linebackers that run legit 4.4 and 4.5 type times like Pete Carroll does.  Of all the linebackers Pete Carroll has acquired so far, only run stuffing SAM KJ Wright did not run a forty in the 4.4 or 4.5 range.  That speed matters when your primary Superbowl threat also plays in your division and is built around a running quarterback who clocked in at 4.53 in the forty.

Zaviar Gooden makes sense, but does Seattle like him enough to spend a third or fourth round pick on him?  That’s a big investment for “competition” with Mike Morgan, Malcolm Smith, and Allen Bradford.  Maybe AJ Klein later on?  He’s a bit on the slow side for Pete, but he’s a good football player and can close in a hurry.  Maybe Cornelius Washington, even though he was more of a defensive end at Georgia?  Jamie Collins is getting some 1st round hype as a 3-4 outside linebacker.  Ty Powell has a lot of burst and thump to his game, but like AJ Klein his speed might be fringe for Carroll.  Trevardo Williams is probably fast enough.  Most people think he’s a defensive end, but I see him as a linebacker due to his non-aggressive style of play.

I wouldn’t be stunned by a selection of Khaseem Greene or Alec Ogletree, but after running in the low 4.7s, I have to think that’s not going to be fast enough and the investment for either might be too big given the other needs the team has.  We’ll see.

Cornerback

It seems extremely likely that Seattle will draft another corner.  Seattle drafted a corner in 2010, they drafted two corners in 2011, and they drafted a corner in 2012.  It’s been a bit of a tradition to take one every year, not to mention the results of those picks have caught the attention of the NFL.

The Seahawks also appear to be parting ways with Marcus Trufant, so there could be a roster spot to fill.  Then there is the rumor about Seattle showing strong interest in Robert Alford, who may not even reach Seattle’s pick in round two.

Pete Carroll has never drafted a corner earlier than the 4th round.  Is it possible that he might set a new high water mark for that position this year?  It’s been estimated that as many as twenty corners could be drafted in the top 100 picks.  It’s a very deep defensive back class- loaded with prospects that ran in the 4.4s and 4.5s.  Seattle could probably wait til the late rounds again, but there is the risk that a deep class might be picked dry by then.  Seattle’s interest in second round prospect Robert Alford certainly raises questions, as does Walter Thurmond and RFA Brandon Browner’s statuses after next season.

One thing to remember is that Seattle is not exclusively looking for corners over six foot tall.  Walter Thurmond is 5’11”.  The rumored Alford is 5’10”.  Jeremy Lane is exactly six foot.  Being over six feet tall helps, but isn’t a requirement.  Speed isn’t a major requirement, although I think Seattle will probably prefer players with a well rounded game that can elevate to the football and press well at the line.

A few of my favorites are Iowa’s Micah Hyde, Georgia’s Sanders Commings and LSU’s Tharold Simon.  Hyde is a well rounded corner that has so-so measurables but excellent tape.  Commings was a consistent difference maker on a great defense, and moves extremely well for someone standing 6 foot tall and weighing a Browner-esque 216 pounds.  Simon is a great cover corner despite being 6’2″ and over 200 pounds.

Seattle will almost certainly draft a corner, and that selection might happen anywhere in the draft.  My guess is that we’ll see them take one in the round 4-7 range just as they did in years prior, but spending a pick earlier would not shock me.

Safety

With Chris Maragos still a free agent, I suspect Seattle will take a long look at a fairly potent free safety group this year.  Maragos wouldn’t be expensive to retain, so he might be back after the draft concludes if Seattle doesn’t find an option they like.

I think safety will probably be a late priority.  Two safeties I like:  Earl Wolff and Jakar Hamilton.  While Shamarko Thomas is drawing a lot of attention for his athleticism, Wolff wasn’t far behind in his combine performances.  Wolff had a hit and miss tenure during his wolfpack career, but his speed and style are reminiscent of a rookie Earl Thomas.  Wolff will probably be a 3rd or 4th round pick, but he could be a player to watch if he slips during the draft.

A more likely late round option is Jakar Hamilton.  Once a talented safety for Georgia, he suffered an injury and lost his starting job to two excellent safeties, Shawn Williams and Baccari Rambo.  Hamilton faced the prospect of graduating without getting to play, so he transferred and played last season for South Carolina State.  Hamilton faced a steep academic hill to climb when he joined South Carolina State and had to take 19 credit hours during the Spring semester and another 18 credit hours over the Summer.  His defensive coordinator called it “probably the biggest hill to climb of anybody [he’d] seen come into [SC State’s] program.”  Hamilton isn’t just a determined player, he’s also a gifted one.  He stands 6’1″, weighs 200, but runs in the 4.4s.  He’s very strong in run defense but has the speed to play corner or free safety.  Not only could he back up Earl Thomas, he might even be able to free up Kam Chancellor at strong safety to play other positions for a few snaps here and there.

Like corner, it’s really hard to guess who Seattle will draft.  It just seems very likely that they will take one, somewhere.  They might even take two, if they feel that they want more competition for Winston Guy and Jeron Johnson in the big nickle packages.

Fitting it all together

Here is a rough guess of what John Schneider’s draft pockets might look like on defense right now:

Defensive Tackle: Rounds 2-4; might add an additional DT in the 4-7 range.

Defensive End: Unlikely to be drafted, unless value presents itself.

Linebacker: Rounds 4-7, waiting for UDFA a possibility.

Cornerback: Probably rounds 4-7, but earlier rounds shouldn’t be ruled out given the expected early rush on the position.

Safety: Rounds 4-7.

In summation, Seattle is looking for depth on defense almost exclusively, with the only starter type player being a run stuffing 3-tech that can also rush the quarterback some.  Someone like Sylvester Williams or Bennie Logan.

I found it interesting this week that Tony Pauline suggested former Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson was likely to be a day two pick:

Continue to hear a buzz being built around receiver Denard Robinson, especially after his performance today.  Though he just participated in drills (WR/RS/RB) scouts were impressed with his consistency and the fact he dropped no passes.  Looks like Robinson has secured a spot for himself in the draft’s second day.

He looked awkward at the Senior Bowl working as a receiver and taking returns. There was talk of a potential switch to cornerback instead. Robinson looked like a great athlete without a home.

And while there was all this talk of position changes I couldn’t help but wonder why nobody was considering him as a running back? After all, he’s 5-10 and 199lbs. He ran a 4.43 at the combine. In comparison, Chris Johnson came in at 5-11 and 186lbs at the combine in 2008. Robinson basically played as a glorified running back in college, throwing occasionally bust mostly excelling in the read option breaking off big gains.

4495. That’s how many yards he ran for in his time at Michigan at 6.2 yards a pop. He scored 42 rushing touchdowns too. Take away his rusty first season and he averaged well over eight yards per carry with +1200 yards a season.

He wouldn’t be the first quarterback from the Big 10 to switch to the backfield — Michael Robinson made a similar move. Yet this latest Robinson has the kind of speed and vision to act as a playmaker rather than a full back. It’d be a completely unconventional second or third round pick, but imagine this guy in the backfield, especially on read option plays? When you actually think about it, he could be one of the most dynamic prospective running backs in the class.

Forget asking him to try and cover elite receivers at corner or learn a full route tree — hand him the ball. Get him involved in screens and bubble’s. Put him in a position to make impact plays for chunk yardage. At Michigan he was a prospective Heisman candidate and explosive playmaker. The only thing that let him down really was the passing side of the game. Well, at running back you’re pretty much taking away that negative.

Part of me thinks this would be such a Seahawky move. It’d be labelled a titanic bust at the time and raise a few titters from the media. And a year later it could be considered a master-stroke. Draft the guy in round two or three, put him in there to spell Lynch and let him hit a few home runs. You could argue that’s why they traded for Percy Harvin, but I don’t expect he’ll be taking too many snaps in the backfield. How do you gameplan against an offense that has Wilson, Lynch and Robinson in the backfield, Harvin in the slot and Rice split out wide? Robinson could act as the third running back initially, taking over the snaps given up by Leon Washington. He could spell Harvin with some returns. But eventually you’re looking at him potentially becoming a dynamic option in the backfield.

In 2010 Carolina drafted Appalachian State quarterback Armanti Edwards in round three (after trading away the rights to their 2011 second rounder). They believed he had the skill and playmaking quality to transform into a receiver at the next level. It’s never really worked out, but if a team is willing to draft Edwards in that range — someone is going to give Denard Robinson a shot too. Whether it’s Seattle or not.

As the last week has shown, the Seahawks love to keep you guessing. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he was a day two or three selection. Neither would it surprise me if he ended up becoming a truly dynamic change of pace back at the next level.

So what do you think?

DE Michael Bennett agrees to one-year, $5 million deal with the Seahawks, per league source.

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) March 14, 2013

Ladies and gentleman… here is your upgraded version of Jason Jones. This new model is healthier and recorded nine sacks last season.

Percy Harvin. Cliff Avril. Michael Bennett. With a draft to come. The Seahawks are playing free agency like a boss. They’re letting the market come to them then beating the crap out of it.

Cliff Avril doesn’t get the mega money he’s looking for, so he signs a two-year ‘prove it’ deal in Seattle. Why? Because he knows this team will give him the opportunity to do just that. Prove it.

Michael Bennett doesn’t get the mega money he’s looking for, so he signs a one-year ‘prove it’ deal in Seattle. Why? Because he knows this team will give him the opportunity to do just that. Prove it.

This isn’t the kind of reckless ‘dream team’ spending that created a mess in Philadelphia. This is cold, calculated domination. If these deals don’t work, they move on. The length of contract in both cases means neither player will have any impact on the teams ability to re-sign Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas or anyone else in the future.

This isn’t blowing $7m on inside linebackers (Miami), multi-millions on Paul Kruger and Desmond Bryant (Cleveland), over-paying for Ricky Jean-Francois, Donald Thomas and Eric Walden (Indianapolis), or giving Mike Wallace $30m guaranteed (Miami again). This is patience and execution. This is opportunism. Playing the market, not being played by the market.

And it helps when you can attract these kind of deals because you already possess a young, vibrant roster.

There will be naysayers who claim you don’t win anything in March. That is true. But again, this isn’t a reckless splurge chasing a dream. Other teams ploughed into free agency and as a collective washed away over $200m in one day. The Seahawks instead traded for Harvin and solved their greatest need (pass rush) with two of the best available free agents at a knock down price. And what an incentive for Avril and Bennett to make the most of their time in the Pacific North West.

Seattle might not win the Super Bowl next season. But they’re positioning themselves for one hell of a run.

So far they’ve added one of the best playmakers in the league, replaced Chris Clemons (ACL) with a top-tier free agent and now upgraded the nickel three-technique position swapping Jason Jones for Michael Bennett. I’m half expecting a trade for Darrelle Revis tomorrow for a stick of gum and some old socks.

Cross off another need on your list. By my count that leaves two — starting defensive tackle and WILL. Will Alan Branch now re-sign? It makes a lot of sense. Take a WILL in the draft? Again, it makes a lot of sense.

This confirms Seattle’s trust in the role Jones played in last year and almost certainly suggests they’ll continue to use size at defensive tackle for the base defense. While a multitude of teams fret over finding a quarterback, or a cornerback, or a pass rusher, or all three… Seattle’s biggest need is merely one giant space eater.

And what about that pick at #56? They can pretty much do whatever they want now. Offense. Defense. Kicker.

Win Forever? They just might.

Michael Bennett’s nine sacks from 2012: Clip 1, Clip 2, Clip 3, Clip 4, Clip 5, Clip 6, Clip 7, Clip 8, Clip 9.

Next the Seahawks are going to sign Leon Sandcastle.

— Michael Smith (@michaelsmith) March 14, 2013

Meanwhile in other news today…

Tyrann Mathieu still worries me

He appeared on NFL AM this morning and conducted a slightly bizarre interview. It all started well enough and to be fair he took a bit of a grilling and opened up about his drug use. Yet there were some really worrying quotes that slipped out near the end.

He admitted he needed to get away from Louisiana after the incident that led to the end of his college career, and he travelled to stay with Patrick Peterson’s family in Florida. Yet when asked about the possibility of being drafted by New Orleans, this was his response: “They’d have to come up with a pretty good plan to keep me out of harms way.”

Excuse me?

He was then questioned about his four reps of the bench press at the combine (why even do it?) and he admitted it hadn’t been his focus going into the event. His focus had been “staying clean”. When pressed on this, he admitted he was still battling to keep away from drugs. That it was a “struggle” to stay away from marijuana. I find it pretty alarming that he’s still having issues there, to the point it seems to have impacted his combine preparation.

Near the end of the interview he said he’d been smoking weed from the age of 12-13 and was introduced to it by a family member. It just seems like this has been a part of his life for such a long time now, he’s really struggling to leave it behind. It’s ingrained into him. Almost like a compulsive smoker who struggles to quit because it’s become second nature.

You want to hear that he’s taken the wake-up call after his departure from LSU and kicked the drugs for good. You don’t want to hear he’s still battling those demons. A team isn’t going to want to babysit him through this struggle. He was a fun player to watch in college and I sincerely hope he can get his life and career back on track. But I can’t draft the guy on this evidence. If he can’t even be trusted to go back to Louisiana — his words — then I think you let somebody else deal with this. It’s a shame, but it is what it is.

Keenan Allen – what’s going on?

He didn’t work out at the combine. He was expected to work out at his pro-day today. But he didn’t. He didn’t do a single drill or work out.

I’m told Keenan Allen/WR/Cal is expected to run routes today at pro-day- which will start soon…did not run 40/short shuttle/3-cone/etc..

— Tony Pauline (@TonyPauline) March 14, 2013

UPDATE:Keenan Allen/WR/Cal did not run routes today. Did nothing. — Tony Pauline (@TonyPauline) March 14, 2013

This is starting to get worrying and it’s why I’ve had him as low as the late second round in previous mock drafts. You’re talking about a receiver who’s underdeveloped because the passing game in California was so inept. He basically spent a career running short digs and curls, constantly coming back to the quarterback. It’s hard to project how fast he is but I’m sceptical — he looks like a 4.5 guy to me which is unremarkable. And despite being billed as a big receiver, he’s one inch taller than DeAndre Hopkins with smaller hands and a smaller wingspan.

And now he’s a serious injury concern because this knee injury is just lingering and lingering. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he drops like a stone. It’ll take a pretty big leap of faith to see him go as early as some are projecting.