Scott Pioli ranks the underclassmen

Either Daniel Jeremiah knows Scott Pioli, or we’ve just had validation that Sharrif Floyd could be a top ten pick. Jeremiah tweeted last week that an NFL executive had guaranteed Floyd would be drafted early. Yesterday Peter King interviewed Pioli and managed to get his top ten underclassmen. There were a few surprises. Here’s the list in order:

1. Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
2. Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
3. Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
4. Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
5. Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
6. Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
7. Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia)
8. Keenan Allen (WR, California)
9. Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)
10. Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)

No Damontre Moore or Sheldon Richardson. It’s an interesting list, but perhaps focused towards the 3-4 defense Pioli was scouting for before he got fired. Floyd would make a fine five technique while Johnathan Hankins is a classic space eater who takes up blocks but offers very little pass rush. Bjoern Werner and Jarvis Jones are capable of rushing the edge in the 3-4, in fact Werner could play end or outside linebacker. Sheldon Richardson looks like an ideal fit for 4-3 and you have to believe it’s the main reason he isn’t part of the list. But maybe we have to start considering Floyd — with his massive upside — as the #1 defensive tackle in this class?

For the offense it’s a surprise to see Eddie Lacy that high but there’s every reason to believe he will be an effective running back at the next level. All being well he should be the first runner off the board. Pioli took Jonathan Baldwin in round one so it’s not too surprising to see he ranks Keenan Allen highly. Personally I think, like Baldwin, he’s only worth a second or third round grade. Gavin Escobar ranked as the top tight end above Zach Ertz and Tyler Eifert is a big headline, but even more striking is that he’s in the top ten at all. He’s a thoroughly modern tight end — big, fast, gets downfield. He offers no blocking qualities but he’ll be a pass catching force. There’s every chance he could work his way into the first or early second round.

We’ve talked a lot about how unpredictable this draft is going to be and Pioli’s list is another great example of that. Last week Desmond Trufant was an expected third round pick. Tony Pauline quoted league sources that he’d be a first round lock. Now several other members of the media are falling over themselves trying to claim they knew all along. It was a surprise, there was a tone of surprise in Pauline’s Tweet. It was just the latest chapter in a story that’s going to keep us guessing right up to April 25th. This will be the hardest draft in years to call.

Whatever your view of the players listed or Pioli as a talent evaluator, it’s a great insight into how teams might be looking at this draft class. And it might indicate while the likes of Dee Milliner and Sharrif Floyd are unlikely options for the Seahawks at #25, maybe it isn’t completely impossible after all that a player like Sheldon Richardson or Zach Ertz comes into range?

Who is Courtney Gardner?

Apparently he’s one of the biggest draft sleepers in the 2013 class.

Again I refer to Tony Pauline — the quintessential draft insider — had this to say about Gardner today on his blog:

“The name making the rounds in the scouting community as one of the biggest sleepers at the receiver position is Courtney Gardner of Sierra College.  The 6-foot, 3-inch/220lb pass catcher was expected to play for Oklahoma in 2013 but opted for the NFL draft after academic “difficulties”.  We hear scouts have been raving about the physical skills Gardner brings to the field.  Besides his large frame the big pass catcher also has the speed (10.7 sec in the 100 meters) to match.  Even college coaches in the area are awed by his ability on the field but focusing at the task at hand seems to be an issue.”

I managed to find the video below for some highlight footage. The quality is awful, but it gives you an idea of his on-field talent. His stock will be pretty limited given he never even left the JUCO ranks, but he might be one to keep an eye on. Meanwhile Pauline also had some pretty interesting information on Ziggy Ansah: “We are now hearing Ansah is a definite mid-first round choice and should be selected anywhere between picks 14-to-18.”

I don’t like Wednesday’s

Wednesday is mock draft day on Seahawks Draft Blog — and I want to keep pumping out different scenarios. I wouldn’t ever try to fool anyone into thinking my mocks are any great insight into what will actually happen. I just want to create debate, present options and see how this thing shakes out. If I did the same prediction every week, I’d be trying to tell you I knew what was going to happen. And nobody knows that. So we’ll keep coming up with different ideas.

The problem is, the draft this year is pretty confusing. It just looks so wide open. My suspicion is that the Seahawks are going to have an unexpected player fall into their direction. Maybe more than one. And if that happens, they still might pick a guy like Khaseem Greene anyway and get another D grade from Mel Kiper. It could be one of those drafts. Again.

There’s a clear need to add a pass rusher or two — will the first round of the draft fill that need? We could see 7-8 defensive lineman leave the board before the #25 pick. Maybe more. So unless they trade up or turn to free agency, the Seahawks could be picking through the remains of a defensive line carcass. So what is the second or third options? A receiver? Tight end? Linebacker?

Every now and again little pieces of information come out — such as the sudden league-wide interest in Sharrif Floyd or Desmond Trufant. You peel back the layers and learn more. But even then, you’re really only scratching the surface.

Whatever happens the Seahawks are going to get a good player at #25. This is a better draft class than maybe most people expected going into the new college season. The hard part is working out what the Seahawks — a team that appears to take pride in thinking outside of the box — is going to do next.

We’ll have another go tomorrow.

Jordan Hill could be one to watch

The three technique position is difficult to judge. If you look over the last few years, so many players have been drafted in round one and it hasn’t worked out for whatever reason. And then you have Geno Atkins — the best three technique in the league — going in round four of the draft. Henry Melton was also a fourth round pick. Darnell Dockett went in round three. So there’s no exact science to finding that elusive interior pass rusher.

The Seahawks can’t be too cute given their extreme need at the position. The roster has developed quicker than anyone expected and finding a pass rush this off-season could be the difference between being winners or merely contenders in 2013.

Having said that, you can’t force the issue. And picking 25th overall makes it difficult to say, “we’ll solve this problem in round one of the draft’. They might have to look seriously at free agency and get the cheque book out. Or they might have to search for that next mid-round steal. If they can find a franchise quarterback in round three, why not a good, pass-rushing defensive tackle?

Out of all the players I’ve looked at so far, Penn State’s Jordan Hill is one of the players to keep an eye on in those mid-to-late rounds.

So what does he do well?

He’s 6-0 and 295lbs and plays with good leverage. If he gets a sniff of a gap he often takes advantage, using his speed to get into the backfield. In a 1v1 match-up he holds his own in the run game, holding his position with surprising power at the point of attack even against top offensive line opposition such as Wisconsin.

Hill’s a fighter — a relentless bundle of energy who defined his teams attitude last season. He chases outside of the tackle box, doesn’t give up on plays and often executes via the second effort. In the Senior Bowl he struggled a bit to generate pressure against a double team, but it was testament that the lineman even in that environment were consistently locking onto him and trying to shut him down. Although he didn’t challenge the quarterback against the double team, he more than held his own and managed to hold position. The Seahawks don’t have enough players on that defensive line right now that warrant a double team.

He doesn’t flash a great bull rush and he could do a better job finishing — his closing burst is average and when he gets into the backfield sometimes, he pressures rather than finishes. His hand use is adequate but not exactly aggressive, while sometimes he takes too long to shed blocks. On the other hand he’s shown an effective lunge to avoid contact, a nice swim move and he’s agile enough to beat a man with a quick first step and break free.

There’s very little injury concern here and he’s an exemplary character off the field. At a time when Penn State needed warriors, Hill stepped up to the mark.

I don’t expect him to be the next great pass rushing three technique. It’s one of the most difficult positions to grade. Take away the sheer importance of the quarterback position and projecting three techniques might be the hardest thing to do in the draft. There really does seem to be a ‘born to do it’ type aspect to it. Even a guy like Gerald McCoy — who looked like the most perfect three technique you’ll find — hasn’t played up to the extreme quality he showed at Oklahoma. You kind of need to be made a little differently. Be edgy.

Hill might be restricted to a nickel role at the next level, working on passing downs and using his agility to create pressure. Even so, I’d still consider taking a shot on the guy. He’s a baller and the type that might just surprise you at the next level. If he can try and get a little stronger in the upper body and work on his closing speed, there’s no reason why he can’t find a home in the NFL and feature on early downs.

Note – He wears #47 in the Penn State videos below and #97 in the Senior Bowl tape

Sheldon Richardson, Star Lotulelei, Sharrif Floyd, Kawann Short, Sylvester Williams.

Five defensive tackles, all of which could be on Seattle’s radar with the #25 pick — especially if they’re unable to address this need in free agency. But how likely is it they’ll be available? Which are the teams capable of making life difficult for the Seahawks?

Jacksonville Jaguars

It seems like Jacksonville’s pass rush has been terrible for a long time, but it has to be Gus Bradley’s first port of call as he improves this team. A big trade up for Derrick Harvey in 2008 didn’t solve the problem. They claimed Jason Babin towards the end of the season but he turns 33 in May. Rookie Andre Branch didn’t feature much in 2012 and had just one sack. They need a pass rusher. The question is — do they look at the interior rushers (Richardson, Lotulelei, Floyd) at #2 or do they target an edge rusher like Bjoern Werner or Damontre Moore? Improving the edge is a greater need, but the interior talent might be superior.

Oakland Raiders

One of the few strengths Oakland had in 2012 was the defensive line, particular at tackle. Desmond Bryant developed into an effective force while much maligned Richard Seymour did a better job than most are willing to give him credit for. The problem is, both are free agents in 2013 and the Raiders are $4.5m over the salary cap. If they manage to keep Bryant they have the option of moving the talented Lamarr Houston inside and letting Seymour walk. In that scenario, they’ll almost certainly target edge rushers, a quarterback or a left tackle. If they lose both Bryant and Seymour, it increases the chances they’ll consider drafting one of Lotulelei, Richardson or Floyd.

Philadelphia Eagles

Chip Kelly appears set to switch to a 3-4 defense and it opens up the possibility of looking at the defensive line. If Luke Joeckel goes before the #4 pick, the Eagles could go in a number of directions. They could draft a quarterback. They could draft another left tackle, such as Eric Fisher (much depends on the health of Jason Peters). They could draft a much needed cornerback like Dee Milliner. Or they can anchor the 3-4 by going big up front. They don’t have an obvious nose tackle on the roster and could also use some help at the five technique. Lotulelei is more than capable of manning the nose at 325lbs and his excellence against the run makes this a great fit. Richardson and Floyd can both play 3-4 defensive end.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans ranked ninth for sacks and have bigger needs, but they don’t have a great defensive tackle. It really depends what they want to get out of the draft because at the moment they’re drifting into obscurity. They fired Mike Reinfeldt as vice-president but kept the man he appointed to be GM (Ruston Webster). They’re bringing in disgraced defensive coach Gregg Williams to support likely lame duck Mike Munchak. Surely they need an impact player? That could lead them to the tackle class. Chance Warmack plus any of the defensive ends or cornerbacks should also be an option. This could go either way, but ultimately there are people trying to keep their jobs in Tennessee. So which position will provide the greatest return in 2013?

Miami Dolphins

Randy Starks and Paul Soliai created one of the more dynamic defensive tackle tandem’s in the NFL in 2012. The only problem is, Starks is a free agent. There will be greater priorities for the Dolphins — Jake Long is a free agent and appears set to leave Miami, getting better receivers for Ryan Tannehill is crucial and improving the secondary is also important. This will really depend on who’s left on the board at #12. There’s every chance Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher are gone by the time Miami picks, so do they take Lane Johnson? Do they draft a receiver here or wait until round two where they have a couple of picks? If Starks leaves and one or more of Lotulelei, Richardson and Floyd remain on the board, they could come into play.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have two big needs — cornerback and defensive tackle. There’s a lot of talk about Desmond Trufant and Xavier Rhodes being first round picks and teams do love to draft corners in round one. Dee Milliner will be off the board by the 14th pick. With all due respect to Trufant and Rhodes, they’d have to see corner as a pretty significant need to pass on one of the defensive tackles. Expect one to leave the board with this pick.

New Orleans

In reaction to sporting the worst total defense in the NFL last year, Sean Payton is switching to the 3-4. Defensive tackle was a need for the Saints anyway, but it becomes even more crucial now that they’re switching schemes. No — they don’t have any obvious candidates to play OLB and get to the quarterback. But they also lack an obvious nose tackle. That’s usually the starting point for any team switching to the 3-4. This pick shouldn’t impact the Seahawks too much given Lotulelei will likely be off the board at this time, meaning the Saints will either draft a big body like Jonathan Jenkins or Johnathan Hankins — or they’ll take an edge rusher instead.

Dallas Cowboys

Dallas going tackle is more likely following the addition of Monte Kiffin, the switch to a 4-3 scheme and the recent arrest of Jay Ratliff. It’ll come down to Jerry Jones’ faith in Kiffin to work with what he’s got. The interior offensive line needs rebuilding and should be a bigger priority for the Cowboys, but the dramatic scheme-switch is a curve ball. They could draft a power end to play across fro DeMarcus Ware (Ziggy Ansah?) or they could draft a pure three-technique to provide interior penetration. It’s worth noting Kiffin came very close to recruiting Sheldon Richardson to play for USC. Richardson played JUCO football in California and almost switched his commitment from Missouri to the Trojans. He cited Kiffin’s influence as the reason he almost made the change.

Minnesota Vikings

Kevin Williams turns 33 in August and the final bricks in the ‘Williams Wall’ are starting to crumble and break away. The Vikings are unlikely to prioritise defensive tackle in round one, especially with bigger needs at receiver, linebacker, cornerback and guard. The concern will be Minnesota picks right before the Seahawks and if one of the upper-tier tackles does suffer a slight drop, they could steal in for value purposes. However, they could have their choice of the receiver class and if Jonathan Cooper slips to #24, the Vikings would be wise to pair him with Matt Kalil on the left side of the offensive line.

**********

When you see reports suggesting Sharrif Floyd could be a top-ten pick, you start to wonder if NFL scouts and GM’s view the likes of Loutlelei, Richardson and Floyd as superior to the edge rushers and other defensive players in the draft. If they’re rated near the top of most boards, you could see all three go in the top 10-15. It wouldn’t be a ridiculous proposition.

In 2011 the Seahawks benefited from the first offensive tackle (Tyron Smith) not leaving the board until the ninth overall pick. The second (Nate Solder) was the #17 pick. Danny Watkins was drafted two places before the Seahawks took James Carpenter. A rush on the position early could’ve put Seattle’s front office in a position where they had to look elsewhere. Carpenter could’ve been the ‘tipping point’ in terms of drafting an offensive tackle in round one.

I listed nine teams above and name-checked five tackles. If Seattle wants to address this position they’ll probably get the opportunity to do so. It’s a stretch to think Lotulelei, Richardson and Floyd will make it through all nine, however. Not impossible, just unlikely.

Seahawks fans need to hope other teams prioritise quarterbacks and offensive tackles — as has been the case in the past. Whatever anyone says about this quarterback class, the new CBA makes it much less of a gamble taking a chance to find a franchise signal caller. Every team picking in the top ten except Detroit has a question mark at quarterback. In 2012 Justin Blackmon, the #5 pick, signed a contract worth $18.5m over four years. The #10 pick Stephon Gilmore agreed a deal worth $12.1m over four years. Compare that to the #5 pick in 2010, Eric Berry, who’s deal was worth $60m over six years, or the #10 pick Tyson Alualu who signed a $28m contract.

Teams picking in the top ten these days can take more risks. In a year without obvious top-end talent, there’s a chance we’ll see multiple teams reaching for quarterbacks. Seven of the top ten are also breaking in new Head Coaches or GM’s. Will they be looking for ‘their guy’? Do players like Matt Barkley, Geno Smith, Mike Glennon and Tyler Wilson become more attractive on contracts worth around $12-20m?

In that scenario you could be looking at the first defensive tackle leaving the board as late as #14 to Carolina. That’s the best case scenario for Seattle. It’s also probably wishful thinking. Yet there’s enough uncertainty surrounding the early picks that pretty much anything could happen — a rush on quarterbacks, defensive tackles, defensive ends, offensive lineman. This years draft more than any other is going to be completely unpredictable. And it wouldn’t surprise me if a number of unexpected players make it into the 20’s.

I’m going to do a bigger piece on Kawann Short tomorrow. He might be Seattle’s best bet if they want to draft a three-technique with the #25 overall pick. One thing I noticed today though — Short will be 24 in February. Star Lotulelei will also turn 24 during his rookie season, while Sylvester Williams will be 25. On the other hand Sharrif Floyd doesn’t turn 21 until late May. Sheldon Richardson’s birthdate is unknown but he graduated from high school in 2009. That’s quite a difference and I wonder if age will impact how teams approach this group.

Why not?

Knee injury or no knee injury, you’re going to show interest in Darrelle Revis if he’s available. We’re talking about one of the premier defensive players in the league. He’s only 27-years-old. Saying you wouldn’t be interested in Revis is like saying you wouldn’t be interested in J.J. Watt or Calvin Johnson after an ACL injury. You do your homework, check the price tag and review the situation.

That doesn’t mean you ultimately make the deal, but the Seahawks are absolutely 100% right to keep their finger on the pulse here. Even if they have one of the best corners in the NFL already on their roster.

According to Mike Freeman at CBS Sports, Seattle, Denver and San Francisco are the teams ‘highly interested’ in doing a deal with the New York Jets:

The possibility of a Revis trade, first reported by CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora, is no longer just a possibility, according to a variety of sources. The Jets are strongly leaning toward the trade and teams are considering giving up significant capital to get him.

“There’s a Revis gold rush forming,” said a general manager.

Some people will love the idea of the Seahawks being interested in Revis, others will say it’s unnecessary. I would say the right position to take is bang in the middle. Test the water, seek out the value. See what happens. Play it by ear. The worst case scenario is you walk away without making a trade. It’s glorified window shopping.

If the right deal comes along, why wouldn’t you pull the trigger? You can never have too many great corners. With the greatest respect to Brandon Browner, a cornerback tandem of Revis and Richard Sherman would be a partnership for the ages. Revis has been shutting down the leagues best receivers since 2007. He was a superstar. The knee injury is a concern, but if Adrian Peterson can return to dominate the league again, why not Revis?

The Seahawks have improved so quickly under Pete Carroll and John Schneider in part because they’ve refused to shut doors. When Randy Moss became available, they had a look. They spoke to Brandon Marshall in 2010. They traded for Marshawn Lynch when most of the league was put off by perceived character concerns. A 5-10 quarterback wasn’t considered too short to succeed. Not every idea leads to a deal being done, but why not keep your options open? Why wouldn’t they monitor the Revis situation?

Improving the pass rush is the main priority this off-season, but how often does a player of Revis’ quality become available? Not very often.

It makes sense to look into this, especially with the Jets reportedly so determined to arrange a trade. They’ll lose the player for nothing in twelve months, can’t use the franchise tag and don’t have the cap room to offer a huge extension. They’re handcuffed. They’re trying to get whatever they can. Cut their losses and run. It’s such a serious issue they’re supposedly willing to take a cap hit of $9m.

New York’s desire for a trade and the need to pay Revis a handsome new contract might help drive the price down. That’s not to say the Jets are going to give him away, but there could be some value to be had for a team willing to pay what he wants.

I’d even argue trading the #25 pick outright should be a consideration. The injury makes it a gamble, but what are the chances you’ll get a player of Revis’ quality with that draft choice? That’s not to say you definitely pull the trigger, but you at least consider it.

This is a team ready to challenge for a Super Bowl. Adding a guy like Revis and working on the pass rush with the rest of your draft picks makes an already solid defense even stronger. It’d be an expensive, calculated roll of the dice. But who knows? You might throw a seven.

So what do you reckon?

(polls)

An aggressive move more likely this year?

When Daniel Jeremiah tweeted the following yesterday…

One junior player generating a ton of buzz is Florida DT Sharrif Floyd. Had one high ranking exec guarantee he’d go top 10.

— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) January 24, 2013

… I found it pretty disheartening.

Pete Carroll’s been pretty open (again) about the teams biggest need this off-season. It’s refreshing honesty. He’s only stating the obvious of course, because everyone can see the pass rush needs an upgrade. But at least he’s avoiding the usual cloak and dagger approach taken by many Head Coaches.

Sharrif Floyd is extremely athletic, he has a ton of potential. He has the flexibility to work in both 4-3 and 3-4 schemes. I can totally see him going within the top-15 picks, although the top-10 might be a stretch based on positional need. The thing is, until yesterday most people assumed he’d last a little longer than that. At least until the #25 overall pick.

Presumably he’s going to be an addition to the defensive tackles already going early? Surely it’s not realistic to expect Sheldon Richardson or Star Lotulelei to fall dramatically enough to make it to #25? Or even into the #19-#24 range where a small move up the board would be manageable?

Sure, there’s some concern about Richardson. He had to play in the JUCO ranks due to academic ineligibility. According to Scouts Inc, “Mental capacity and maturity level are being closely investigated by NFL scouts.” He was also suspended for a game in 2012, according to Edward Aschoff, “Because he missed a class multiple times and refused to go through the punishment given to him for missing the class.”

Nick Fairley had similar red flags hanging over him in 2011, but still went #13 overall. I guess the three-technique position isn’t made for choir boys. You want attitude, a mean streak, to have that edge. It has to be natural. Darnell Dockett is the player he is because of the person he is. It comes with the territory.

The concerns over Richardson could keep him out of the top ten, but all the way to #25? It almost certainly won’t happen.

Tennessee, Carolina, New Orleans, Dallas (Jay Ratliff was arrested this week) and Minnesota would all surely consider drafting a defensive tackle. It starts getting expensive if you want to consider trading above Dallas at #18 — even more so when you talk about the others.

Once Lotulelei, Floyd and Richardson leave the board — there’s really only Sylvester Williams as a pass rushing defensive tackle with first round potential. Johnathan Hankins can’t do it. Jonathan Jenkins is a big nose tackle. I think it’s too early for Kawann Short (whose inconsistent motor is a big turn off) and Datone Jones is a nice, penetrative defensive lineman but he just looks too slim to be an every down tackle. He’s a light looking 280lbs. He might be better suited in the Greg Scruggs and Jason Jones role. Can he put on another 10lbs and stick? He’s been as light as 260-270lbs in college.

Tony Pauline sums up the issue with Jones: “Teams loved the play of Datone Jones during Senior Bowl practices but think he won’t be selected early in the draft.  The feeling is he has no real position at the next level and is a hard schematic fit.  Right now most say third round.”

With a likely rush on defensive ends also very possible (Damontre Moore, Bjoern Werner etc could all be top-ten picks), at #25 the Seahawks could be making a decision over the seventh or eighth best defensive lineman.

Looking back at 2011, I think they were determined to draft an offensive lineman. Carroll wanted to improve the run game, he drafted John Moffitt after James Carpenter and then added Robert Gallery in free agency. Carpenter was the fifth lineman off the board after Tyron Smith, Nate Solder, Anthony Castonzo and Danny Watkins. Castonzo wasn’t a good fit at right tackle or guard, but I think the other three names plus Carpenter could’ve made up Seattle’s tipping point at the position. No Carpenter at #25? Maybe they look elsewhere, perhaps draft Jabaal Sheard?

This is the point I’m getting at here. What is Seattle’s tipping point this year? Who has to leave the board before you either move up or move on?

John Schneider recently compared trading up in the draft to spending big in free agency. In order to improve the pass rush effectively, the Seahawks might have to do one or the other.

Seattle got agonisingly close to the final four this year. Going into next season without the final pieces of the puzzle appears almost unthinkable. If there’s a time to be aggressive, is that time now? You offset that by looking at all the teams over the years that moved away from their philosophy chasing the dream. A calculated approach has worked so far, changing that plan could backfire. In a bad way.

This is the crucial dilemma facing the Seahawks. Clearing the last hurdle might be the toughest challenge so far.

I don’t expect any big moves up the board in round one, involving future first round picks. It’s worth remembering though, that this is a front office that spent a third round pick and took a second round hit on Charlie Whitehurst. You can look at that in two ways. One — being aggressive didn’t work in that instance. Two — this is a team that is prepared to go big to fill a key need. At the time, long term stability at quarterback was the big need. Now it’s the pass rush.

We all expect Schneider to cherish his picks and rightly so given the teams success rate in the draft so far. I’d still argue a modest move up the board this year is more likely than any other so far. Last year the Patriots of all people traded up, searching for that crucial pass rusher. A leap from #27 to #21 cost Bill Belichick a third round pick. Theoretically a jump from #25 to #18 or #19 would come with a similar price.

It might not be enough to get at the top defensive lineman but if there’s a guy there at #18, #19 or #20 — you’re looking at a third round pick to get it done. And regardless of what happened with last year’s third rounder, it’s a small price to pay to put the pass rush on track.

Chiefs not re-signing Branden Albert?

A twitter account called ‘NFL Philosophy‘ claiming to be a former NFL front office employee put out the following Tweet today:

I don’t mean to be a tease but I’m not a reporter. So some stuff you have to trust me on. KC’s not re-signing Albert.

— NFL Philosophy (@NFLosophy) January 24, 2013

There’s no way of testing the legitimacy of this ‘report’. We have no idea how well sourced this guy is, or if he truly did work in the NFL. His Twitter bio reads: “This account will only last until I’m back in the league.” I accept that in highlighting this tweet I might just be endorsing a classic internet deception. There are plenty of people on the internet claiming to be in the know. Those acting anonymously will always be looked at with a degree of suspicion.

At least until they’re proven right.

It’s not a ridiculous suggestion by any means. Albert will expect to be paid like a starting left tackle. Although the Chiefs have an incredible $62.995m in cap room this year, they’re not at liberty to spend it. What if Andy Reid just doesn’t rate Albert?

They don’t have to draft Luke Joeckel with the #1 pick if he walks. They have the #2 pick in round two. They have the freedom to go after a free agent tackle like Jake Long. If they do like Joeckel enough to draft him with the first pick, they can always draft a quarterback in round two. Or even trade back into the first.

In fact we could see a lot of movement on day one if the quarterbacks don’t rush off the board. If Kansas City (Joeckel), Arizona (Eric Fisher) and Buffalo (pick anyone) don’t draft quarterbacks in the top ten, they could look to trade up.

The problem is — what kind of value will be on offer to make such a deal? Tampa Bay traded from #36 to #31 last year by simply swapping fourth round picks with Denver. You’d have to be pretty desperate to trade down with that offer on the table. There won’t be a big drop off between a pick in the 20’s and the top of round two which might encourage some teams to take any value.

Free agency can’t come soon enough (it starts March 12th) so we can stop speculating and start to piece together what teams might do when the draft begins.

Zach Ertz remains intriguing

The real value in terms of pass-catchers is likely to come in the late first or early second. DeAndre Hopkins deserves to be a round one pick. Robert Woods is criminally underrated and not getting anything like enough attention. Markus Wheaton is also a better player than he gets credit for.

I keep seeing Keenan Allen and Justin Hunter as top-25 picks, but where’s the evidence for this on tape? I just don’t see it and expect both to be available in round two or even round three. Terrance Williams looks set for a place in the second round. And there’s going to be guys like Tyler Eifert and Gavin Escobar in the mix too.

Yet the player I’m watching the most tape of at the moment is Stanford’s Zach Ertz.

I know the Seahawks need pass rush help. Part of me hopes that can be addressed in free agency to set-up the possibility of Ertz being a first round option. If they’re able to go out and get a Randy Starks and a Cliff Avril or Osi Umenyiora, then bring it on. I’m not a big fan of chasing needs in free agency, the previous regime in Seattle did it way too much. But I am a fan of drafting Zach Ertz.

The way I see it, it’s very difficult to take the top off a defense and throw in behind — exploiting the deep speed of a receiver. Only a few guys can do this. The best receivers in the NFL right now are mostly big guys who can run, or at least big guys that create mismatches. When I watched the Seahawks last year, there seemed to be an awful lot of jump ball situations, challenging the receiver to exploit single coverage and make a play.

Drafting a smaller, speedy receiver like Robert Woods, Markus Wheaton or even DeAndre Hopkins might not suit this offense (although I think Hopkins plays above his size). Sidney Rice is 6-4 and 202lbs. Golden Tate is 5-10 and 202lbs. Doug Baldwin is 5-10 and 189lbs. Apart from Rice’s height, there’s not a great deal of size there. I think the Seahawks would welcome a bigger, possession style receiver who can still get around the field and make athletic plays.

That’s where Ertz comes in to play.

Although he’s listed as a tight end, he played everywhere for Stanford. Out wide, in the slot, at the line of scrimmage. Whoever drafts him should use him in exactly the same way. Linebackers will struggle to cover him as the third receiver. He can work as the #2 alongside Rice. He can play as the #1 or #2 tight end. You could even run sets with all three of Zach Miller, Anthony McCoy and Zach Ertz on the field in a heavy package, enhancing both the running game and play action.

As you can see with this deep completion against Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, he can get downfield.

Drafting Ertz wouldn’t be so much grabbing a replacement for McCoy as the #2 tight end. It’d be more a case of adding a hybrid TE/WR who can act as a dynamic possession receiver. Not many 6-6, 252lbs players move around a field like Ertz and possess his level of catching ability, consistency and playmaking quality.

He might not be there by the #25 pick. Unfortunately I suspect he won’t get past Chicago at #20. If the Seahawks can find a solution to their pass rushing woes in free agency, at least they’d be able to give drafting Ertz some serious thought.

Senior Bowl gets under way

Day one started with measurements and a weigh-in. It was disappointing to hear that Kansas State linebacker Arthur Brown wouldn’t be attending due to injury. Another linebacker — Rutgers’ Khaseem Greene — impressed during coverage drills. Seattle sent scouts to a few Rutgers games this year (per Chris Steuber) and while many assumed it was to observe giant receiver Brandon Coleman, the main focus could’ve been Greene. I see him as a solid second or third round option. He appears to fit what the Seahawks are looking for at the WILL.

Margus Hunt showed off an impressive physique and confirmed his stature at 6-8, 277lbs. Hunt also has 33 inch arms — good length for a defensive end. Alex Okafor came in at 6-4 and 261lbs with 33 inch arms. Kawann Short flashed an impressive 6-4 and 308lbs (lighter than expected), while John Simon came in at 6-1 and 256lbs.

Sylvester Williams didn’t get rave reviews for his body type, apparently looking a little sloppy in the midriff. He measured 6-2 and 313lbs with 33 inch arms. That’s quite big for a potential three technique, although Seattle has used 325lbs Alan Branch in the role for the last two years.

Jonathan Jenkins looked every bit a future nose tackle at 6-4 and 359lbs. According to Shane Hallam the Seahawks set up an interview with the Georgia prospect.

Seahawks scout set up an interview with John jenkins

— Shane P. Hallam (@ShanePHallam) January 21, 2013

After speaking to Sylvester Williams yesterday, it seems like the Seahawks are putting in the leg work to check out this defensive tackle class. Jenkins would appear to be an unlikely option given his massive size and lack of pass-rush, but it’s worth doing due diligence this week. With three high calibre defensive tackles set to hit free agency in mid-March (Randy Starks, Henry Melton and Desmond Bryant) it makes sense to check on the prospects in Mobile to weigh up options. There’s more on Williams and Florida’s Sharrif Floyd later in today’s article.

Many of the offensive lineman impressed — D.J. Fluker showed off a compact frame with little body fat but still came in at 6-5 and 355lbs with 36 inch arms. At that size the big question will be mobility, even if he doesn’t have a sloppy frame. I think he’ll end up being an excellent guard as opposed to a starting tackle. Eric Fisher measured at 6-7 and 305lbs with 34 inch arms. He’ll likely be the second left tackle off the board in April.

Kyle Long started working at right tackle during drills and has shorter arms at 32 inches, which could have an impact on whether he starts at tackle or guard at the next level. It was a similar case for Justin Pugh (31 inches).  Teams are looking for tackles with a long reach and a strong punch. Shorter arms aren’t a death sentence by any means (Atlanta’s Sam Baker had this issue going into the draft) but they can impact your stock.

Sanders Commings measured in two inches shorter than Georgia had him listed (5-11, 223lbs). It shouldn’t be too much of a concern though, especially given his recent display against Alabama in the SEC Championship. I like Commings as a possible Seahawks target at corner.

Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson helped his stock by measuring at 6-2 — there had been some concerns he would come in at around 6-0/6-1. Height is much less of a taboo these days following Russell Wilson’s brilliant rookie season, but it would be a concern for his namesame who has a slingy, low release point. He had the smallest hands among the quarterbacks (between 8-9 inches). E.J. Manuel and Ryan Nassib led the group for hand size. Landry Jones had a disappointing first work-out according to eye witness accounts.

Landy Jones all over the place with throws. — Tony Pauline (@TonyPauline) January 21, 2013

Wilson was apparently the best of a mediocre bunch today, spreading the ball around and connecting on a big play to Terrance Williams in 7v7 drills. Williams also had some issues with body catching, something that flashed up as a consistent problem on tape during the season. Reports suggest Markus Wheaton is looking smooth early on — he’s the best senior receiver so this should be no surprise.

For thoughts on the Senior Bowl work-outs I’d recommend following Tony Pauline on Twitter. He’ll also post practise notes on his website Draft Insider.net — such as the following on Ziggy Ansah: “Played in spurts but when he was on Ansah was terrific. The athleticism, explosion and power is there but he really needs to improve his overall techniques and polish his game.”

For a full breakdown on all the height/weight checks, click here (courtesy of NE Patriots Draft).

The Miami Dolphins web site provides a nine-minute podcast on how the players performed in drills. It’s worth a listen.

Rob Rang at CBS Sports has a breakdown of his observations on day one.

SB Nation has put together a ‘Senior Bowl’ hub where you’ll find multiple articles discussing events in Mobile.

Further thoughts on Slyvester Williams and Sharrif Floyd

Seattle’s pursuit of the defensive tackles at the Senior Bowl sparked my interest in the position again this week. It’s no great shock that the Seahawks are looking here — it’s the teams greatest need. Whatever happens this off-season, they need to come away with a defensive tackle capable of collapsing the pocket. Alan Branch has done a fine job during the last two seasons, but he isn’t a pass rusher. The 4-3 under scheme that the Seahawks are using requires a pass rusher at the three-technique position.

Sharrif Floyd and Sylvester Williams are two players that continue to interest me, but for different reasons. There are also some concerns.

I’m constantly going backwards and forwards with Sharrif Floyd. One minute I’m convinced he’s better off concentrating on the five technique position in a 3-4 scheme, the next I’m looking at his frame and imagining ideal three-technique size and some incredible raw potential.

I’ve talked about his background before (click here) but if you want a quick recap — he had a tough upbringing without his parents, was scrambling around looking for basically anywhere to live during High School. He was going to school in the same tattered old clothes every day. Floyd had to raise money on his own by making and selling brownies to get a plane ticket to attend an All-Star game in Texas — despite being a 5-star recruiting prospect.

And despite all of these hardships, he got on with his life. He’s a well spoken, driven individual. This is a man who has had pretty much everything thrown at him and not once has he complained. He’s a true inspiration.

I did some further digging on Floyd over the weekend and found some interesting information. Pete Carroll recruited Floyd in 2009, inviting him to USC for a visit. Pretty much every major school was trying to convince him to join their programme — and the Trojans were no exception. Floyd wrote a blog for Sports Illustrated during his recruitment experience. And he had a few interesting notes about his time with Carroll:

“I had a few opportunities to meet with coach Pete Carroll once before the game and than Sunday morning, prior to my departure. That last meeting was really chilled as we had breakfast on the beach. We spent some time just talking, and we didn’t talk football that much. We walked around for a bit after breakfast, just taking in the scene along the pier.

“I found out that he’s a great man and I enjoyed just being able to see him as a person and not the coach on the sidelines. I liked being able to talk with him about life.”

Of course he eventually committed to Florida, but despite a cluster of interest from all of the major schools — it seems like USC were in the running all the way. That suggests Carroll was pretty keen to bring him to Southern Cal. He made a policy of only going after out-of-state prospects who could be potential first round NFL picks.

Carroll already knows about this guy. Eventually the Seahawks are going to lose this edge when players recruited by the Trojans have all moved on to pastures new. For now, this front office continues to benefit from a unique insight courtesy of the Head Coach.

Combine this with Dan Quinn’s two years as Floyd’s defensive coordinator at Florida and the Seahawks barely have to scout the guy. I noticed an article from March 2012 where Quinn referenced his best position was defensive tackle, rather than end. It’s interesting that Carroll also saw him as a fit for his scheme at USC and both coaches will have insight into his strengths and weaknesses, which will help if you’re trying to manufacture an impact in year one.

Rest assured if the Seahawks do pass on Sharrif Floyd it’ll be more than an educated guess on his NFL potential.

We know he’s off the charts in terms of character and has the ideal frame for a three-technique at 6-3 and 298lbs. He’s only really scratched the surface of his potential in college. And he’s young – he won’t even turn 21 until late May.

What does the tape show? He has a lot of areas to improve if he wants to make the most of his obvious physical quality. Floyd takes a lot of wasted steps. He often lacks an explosive first step off the snap which is one of the big no-no’s when you’re looking for a three-technique. He plays with a lot of heart with a high motor, but he sometimes lacks that nasty streak you love to see for the position. He has almost a tendency to play too nice at times. There’s not a lot of evidence of a pass-rush repertoire or even one move that he can rely on. He’ll need some technical refinement to become an effective interior pass rushers in the NFL.

At the same time he shows well against the run and does have an effective bull rush. Mobility wise you can’t ask for much more and that’s why you can’t ignore this guy. Any player that moves this well at nearly 300lbs will interest a good defensive line coach. If you can teach him to judge a snap count and find that little edge by improving his first step, he could be effective. He looks to have long arms so there’s no reason why he can’t master the swim move. In one of the videos below you’ll see he more than holds his own against prospective t0p-five left tackle Luke Joeckel of Texas A&M.

It’s very easy to put 2+2 together and get 5 sometimes. The recruiting history with Carroll and the Dan Quinn-connection makes Floyd one to monitor, without any guarantees he’ll be on the teams radar. In terms of pure potential he’s off the charts — and there could be enough people banging the table to take a chance on him in April. The only concern will be if he’s almost too much of a high-upside project. Can he have an impact immediately? Can he rush the passer in year one? Fellow Gator Jaye Howard — another of Quinn’s former lineman — had absolutely no impact as a rookie and spent the year on the inactive list. The Seahawks need an interior presence now, not in 2014 or 2015.

Sylvester Williams played most of 2012 nursing an ankle injury — and it showed at times. Fair play to him for competing through the pain barrier, but he lacked the kind of burst and freedom we saw in 2011.

He’s bigger than most three-techniques, but you have to assume Seattle wouldn’t be put off by that given their use of Alan Branch previously. It does help against the run — and Williams is difficult to shift, eats up space and stands his ground well. He understands leverage and generally plays with good pad level. Even if he underwhelms as a pass rusher in the NFL, you’re going to get a fine run stopper.

The two things I think you want more than anything in a three technique are explosion of the snap and attitude. You can’t be a nice person and play the three-tech. These guys are not generally nice people on the football field. They’re outspoken, often leaders on the defense. One of the great things about Sheldon Richardson is the fact he’s a prototype for the size but he also has that sparky attitude.

Williams isn’t the same in that regard, but he does explode off the snap. Considering he’s 313lbs, he gets off the line really well and combines it with a superb swim move to penetrate. His technique is something to behold in this area, as he’ll slap an arm away and with such fluidity before escaping into the backfield. It’s unnatural for his size. Whether this will be equally effective against veteran pro-lineman remains to be seen, but there’s a lot to like here.

He too has had an unusual path to the NFL. At one point he almost gave up the game, dropping out of High School. He went to work making radiator parts for large trucks and had something of an epiphany moment — deciding he truly did want to make football his career. Since then he hasn’t really looked back — walking onto Coffeyvile in the JUCO ranks and then eventually getting his chance with the Tar Heels.

It means he’s going to be a 25-year-old rookie. That’ll put some teams off, but it’s worth noting that Bruce Irvin also turned 25 in his first season with the Seahawks. Team scouts from Seattle met with Williams on Sunday upon his arrival at the Senior Bowl.

There are a handful of concerns that I have here. One — he has a body type more suited to the one-technique. While his swim move and burst is impressive, will the quickness we’ve seen in the college ranks translate to the next level? Smaller, squatter lineman have often had greater success in the NFL at the three-technique. Two — he’s almost given up on football once before, so can he be trusted to keep the fire burning once he gets paid? Does he appreciate that the NFL should really be the start of his career, not the climax of a smaller journey from that car-parts workshop back onto the field?

Williams is a talented player who deserves a lot more hype than he receives. But he’s a classic defensive tackle prospect. By that I mean — tantalising skills but a constant, nagging element of doubt as to whether it’ll all translate to the next level. There’s a reason why there’s barely any good three-techniques in the league — it is such a difficult position to judge and get right.

Want a great example of this? Geno Atkins had three sacks in his final year at Georgia and zero sacks the year before. He ends up being a fourth round pick for Cincinnati and now he’s the best three-technique in the NFL. Work that one out. I suspect it all comes back to what I was talking about earlier — this position is as much about attitude, scheme and a natural feel for the position as it is about physical skills. Atkins is 6-1 and 300lbs. He’s squat, he masters leverage and he explodes into the backfield. He’s a constant disruptive force. There are better athletes out there, but he just gets it.

It’s really difficult to project how an undersized defensive tackle will translate to the pro’s. And you can gamble on upside and fail. Even the ideal prospects for the position — like Nick Fairley — can take a while to adjust or just flat out struggle.

Weirdly production in college doesn’t always translate to the next level. Sharrif Floyd only had three sacks in 2012 and two came against Louisville in the Sugar Bowl. Sylvester Williams had six sacks this season. Yet can we really rule out the possibility either will be enjoying 12.5 sack-seasons like Geno Atkins in the future? There was no precedent for Atkins having a season like that before he arrived in Cincinnati. Alternatively you could just as easily envisage both players struggling at the next level due to some of the issues we’ve discussed in this piece.

I’ve included tape of both Sylvester Williams and Sharrif Floyd at the bottom of this article. Three videos per-player.

Free agency options

The defensive tackle issue could be a problem filled in free agency. Signing a proven commodity would eliminate some of the boom-or-bust issues of having to take a guy in round one of the draft.

Randy Starks (named to the AFC Pro-Bowl roster today as an alternate) could provide a cost effective answer, but at 29 he’s approaching the final throngs of his career-peak. Henry Melton will need to escape the franchise tag in Chicago, but the former running back could be a blue-chip signing. It’d come with a hefty price tag though. Desmond Bryant is less spectacular but also young and coming off a good year for the Raiders. It seems unlikely Oakland will be able to re-sign him given their serious cap problems and he too could be a potential target.

Signing a veteran tackle would allow the Seahawks to consider adding a physical freak like Margus Hunt to play some edge rush or maybe even take over the Jason Jones role. Getting an interior presence signed and sealed before April 25th would make such a proposition more likely.

Of course, they could do things the other way around. Cliff Avril will be a free agent this year and Detroit will not use the franchise tag to keep him. He was offered a contract worth $30m over three years in the summer, but turned it down. He’s been a productive pass rusher for the Lions in recent years and fits the size requirements of a LEO. He ran a 4.51 at the combine with a 1.50 10-yard split, which is certainly quick enough to interest Pete Carroll. It’s just a case of price and whether the Seahawks want to go big on a pass rusher of Avril’s nature. He’s certainly benefited from the presence of Ndamukong Suh over the last three years.

What works against Avril is that he’s in the second tier of pass rushers. We’re not talking Mario Williams territory here, far from it. As soon as you start talking about a deal worth around $10m a year, I think it’s less likely the Seahawks would bite. He’s a player to keep an eye on though. He turns 27 in early April, so a three-year contract with big incentives wouldn’t be a complete non starter.

Osi Umenyiora would be a cheaper, shorter term option similar to Raheem Brock’s arrival in Seattle. He’ll be 32 next season and coming off a year where New York relegated him to spot duty. Even so, he’s a proven commodity and wouldn’t cost anything like the outlay you’d have to spend on Avril.

It’s going to be fascinating to see how the Seahawks play free agency. Whatever they choose to do is going to have a major impact on the draft, even more so than usual.

Shrine game notes (offense)

A big thank you once again to guest blogger Morgan Goulet for providing us with his take on the Shrine Game over the weekend. Be sure to check out his notes on the defensive players if you missed it from yesterday. Today, Morgan focuses on the offense:

Collin Klein was the first QB to set foot on the field on Saturday and the Heisman candidate had a lot of questions about his skill set to answer. He had a difficult week of practice and not much changed after the whistle blew. He completed 5 of his 13 passes with an INT in a scattershot performance.

I have no idea what Southeastern Louisiana QB Nathan Stanley was even doing suiting up. I was excited to see what Louisiana Tech QB Colby Cameron could do, though. Pete Carroll had casually mentioned that it’s be nice if they could find someone that can “do what Russell Wilson does,” which I assume means run the complete playbook and minimize turnovers. Cameron had just finished a season where he threw for over 4100 yards with only 5 INTs. On the way he broke Wilson’s record for passes completed without a pick. Here he had one of the worst passes of the game, flinging an out late to a covered receiver, and well to the inside instead of the outside. The pass was picked and returned for a TD. It was pretty ugly and summed up the evening for the East QB’s. Fortunately for Cameron, he has plenty of better tape with a Tech program that was actually pretty decent this year.

The West QB situation was only a bit better. Seth Doege got the start despite Tony Pauline’s flat “he can’t throw” dismissal earlier in the week. He didn’t really show that he could throw on Saturday, either. Matt Scott was uncomfortable on the field, calling two timeouts on one series because he couldn’t get the play call right. He did turn what I thought was a poor decision to pass into gold on a long TD throw to Mississippi State WR Chad Bumphis. Georgia CBBranden Smith was closing fast but jumped a fraction of a second early, and the ball slid right past his fingers and into the arms of Bumphis who raced untouched into the endzone (helped by an uncalled block in the back on S Cooper Taylor by Nevada TE Zach Sudfeld). The pass itself was a thing of beauty, and was probably the prettiest of the evening in terms of touch and trajectory.

Scott ran a very effective ZRO offense at Arizona but needs some work. He does a good job of keeping his eyes up and scanning the  field as he’s scrambling, but locks onto his first read and lacks downfield accuracy. He’ll also need to play a little bit safer as he’s slide-averse and had to leave consecutive games with concussion symptoms this season. With the mobile QB revolution in full swing, Scott is going to be drafted this year and that team will spend the time to hammer out his rough edges because he is fully capable of performing in an offense like Seattle’s, but he needs to be a better passer; even his mediocre 60.3% accuracy rating was buoyed by a lot of short passes. Western Michigan’s Alex Carder was the final QB to feature and he showed the poise required to get a shot at the tail end of the draft, despite also tossing a pick.

There was a good mix of running backs on display. Vanderbilt’s career rushing leader Zac Stacy showed off an absolutely nasty stiff arm and some bounce to find holes at the line, but whiffed on an easy swing pass. Texas A&M tailback Christine Michael has near-ideal size at 5’11 and 225lbs but brings with him the baggage of a falling out with the A&M coaching staff. He lost time to junior Ben Malena and also to freshman Trey Williams, who emerged as a dynamic threat. Michael still managed to lead the team in rushing TD’s with 12 on only 88 carries. He has a good jump cut and not a lot of mileage on the tires.

Leon Johnson had a pro-bowl year in 2012, but his age and contract might make him vulnerable. Enter Kerwynn Williams. A fellow Utah State alumnus with Robert Turbin and Bobby Wagner, Williams is a shifty and quick and did it all for the Aggies last year, running for 1507 yards with 15 touchdowns and added 45 receptions and another 5 scores. Williams finished his career with 235 rushing yards against Toledo in the Idaho Potato Bowl. I really hope his name gets called by Seattle on draft weekend.

Production for the wide-outs was limited by the horrendous QB play, but there were some plays made. Bumphis almost broke a hundred yards on his four receptions and the aforementioned touchdown. He showed he can catch the ball but his draftability probably hinges on his combine numbers as his size and production are unremarkable. There were a lot of big receivers on both rosters but despite their size, the quarterbacks just couldn’t find them. The 6-4 Corey Fuller out of Virginia Tech made a nice move to juke Aaron Hester out of his cleats on the way to converting a first down and 6-4 Marcus Davis of West Virginia pulled down a nice 16-yarder, but that was it. Even the impressive array of TE’s didn’t contribute. All of the tight ends on the East roster were 6’6″ and 250+ lbs and only Chris Pantale from Boston College managed a reception. The biggest name on the West, UCLA’s (and former ‘Hawk TE Christian Fauria’s nephew) Joseph Fauria, didn’t play due to an injury incurred during the week.

All talk of the offensive line starts with Arkansas-Pine Bluff OT Terron Armstead. Armstead slammed, slid, twisted, and contorted his 6’5 310 lb frame anywhere he had to to keep the quarterback clean. I’ve heard rumblings about him having to kick inside to guard but to me it looks like he carries his weight like a tackle. He is toolsy but doesn’t completely lack technique. For comparison’s sake I’ll say he looked better than former Hillsdale grad and Raiders third-rounder Jared Veldheer looked in his All-Star game, and Veldheer went on to win the Raider’s left tackle job a few games into the season. Armstead isn’t the physical freak that Veldheer is but I think he’ll find success on Sundays. The middle of the line was typically a mess but TCU guard Blaize Foltz looked solid and warrants the attention he’s been getting. He was alert and active and used his 6’4, 315 lb bulk to hold his ground as best he could against the talented East front four.

Sylvester Williams & Sharrif Floyd game tape (three videos each)

Senior Bowl preview

It’s Senior Bowl week and thanks to the efforts of former Cleveland GM Phil Savage, it’s going to be a good one this year. Savage has led a concerted effort to improve the event, allowing fourth-year juniors to attend and working on getting as many of the top eligible players to Mobile. There are always high-profile absentees, but credit to Savage that many big names will be on show.

So who won’t be there? Montee Ball (RB, Wisconsin), Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah), Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia), Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) and Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina) will not attend. Manti Te’o also pulled out, something he’ll probably live to regret given recent events. Matt Barkley (QB, USC) will also continue his rehab from a shoulder injury and won’t compete.

Apart from that it’s a strong year for the Senior Bowl, particularly on the north roster. Work outs begin at 1:30pm tomorrow. I wanted to highlight some of the key players to monitor from a Seahawks perspective…

North roster

Alex Okafor (DE, Texas) and Margus Hunt (DE, SMU) could be book-end pass rushers for the north roster. They’ll split time with John Simon (DE, Ohio State).

Okafor has ‘LEO’ size but I’m sceptical he has enough burst and pure speed to interest the Seahawks. His first step can be a little sluggish at times. Having said that, he ended the year with a very strong display against Oregon State in the Alamo Bowl and for a 260lbs defensive end, he plays the run well. Hand use is key for Okafor and he’s shown consistently good technique.

Hunt is a physical freak and one of the more unique players to enter the league in recent years. He needs to prove to scouts he has natural football skills and a feel for the game. He can’t appear lost out there, either in the workouts or the game itself. If he finds a comfort zone early in the week, he’ll have the opportunity to really boost his stock in Mobile. I have a feeling he’s going to have a big game at the weekend.

Simon (DE, Ohio State) is vastly underrated, a relentless pass rusher and two-time captain for the Buckeye’s. Whoever drafts Simon will not be disappointed. He’s undersized, but he makes up for it in so many ways. He’s likely to see some time at linebacker as well as end given his side, but I like him better playing at the line of scrimmage.

Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina) and Kawann Short (DT, Purdue) are also part of the north roster. Imagine a line with Okafor and Hunt at defensive end and Williams and Short playing inside. Williams is already receiving interest from the Seahawks per Shane Hallam:

Seahawks scout chatting with DT Sylvester Williams

— Shane P. Hallam (@ShanePHallam) January 20, 2013

I’m going to do a bigger piece on Williams this week. He’s the most likely option for the Seahawks at #25 if they want to draft an interior pass rusher. He struggled with an ankle injury for most of the 2012 season so it’ll be good to see a healthy Williams in Mobile. Short blows hot and cold on the field — occasionally flashing brilliance as a penetrating force, then disappearing for long stretches. He has round one upside, but he could fall into round two or even three because of his inconsistent nature.

The north roster is also loaded at linebacker, with several potential Seahawks. Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State), Kevin Reddick (LB, North Carolina) and Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers) are players to monitor, although Brown is probably the only potential first round pick from that trio.

There are four defensive backs I’ll be keeping an eye on. Jordan Poyer (CB, Oregon State) is a 5-11 corner with a competitive nature and good cover skills. Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut) stands even taller at 6-1 and fits the criteria for a Seahawks corner. Phillip Thomas (S, Fresno State) can be a big time playmaker but has a boom or bust nature. Will Davis (CB, Utah State) could be a fast riser after a very productive 2012 season.

On offense — Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) has an opportunity to solidify his position as the #2 left tackle in the draft behind Luke Joeckel. Kyle Long (T, Oregon) is going to get a ton of attention this week and could be a quick riser due to his bloodlines. Brian Winters (G, Kent State) is another player to keep an eye on while Justin Pugh (T, Syracuse) is also expected to attend under the new rules that allow fourth year juniors to participate. Pugh is a character and he has good size — he could kick start a run on the second tier tackles in round two.

At the skill positions, Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State) is a terrific player and could be given the chance to show off his extreme speed this week. It’ll be interesting to see how Denard Robinson (QB, Michigan) works out at running back and receiver. Kenjon Barner (RB, Oregon) and Jonathan Franklin (RB, UCLA) both had strong seasons in the PAC-12.

The three quarterbacks on the north roster are Mike Glennon (QB, NC State), Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse) and Zac Dysert (QB, Miami OH). I had a chance to watch some NC State tape this week and Glennon deserves some of his recent hype. He didn’t have a great Bowl game, but when he’s given time in the pocket he looks like an accomplished passer. He could be a first or second round pick. I’m not a fan of Nassib’s personally, but he has the kind of physical tools that’ll fool somebody to force a reach. I don’t like his ‘one-speed’ fast ball or accuracy and feel in the pocket. Dysert is a trendy late round option but I think he’s a limited player unlikely to have much impact at the next level.

South roster

There isn’t quite as much depth on the south roster. I’m most excited about the south’s group of defensive backs. Sanders Commings (CB, Georgia) has Seahawks written all over him — he’s 6-2 and 216lbs. He plays as physically as you’d expect for his size. He was probably Georgia’s stand-out performer against Alabama in the SEC Championship. Keep his name on your radar. Bacarri Rambo (S, Georgia) is way too talented to receive such little attention during the 2012 season. Part of that is due to minor off-field issues. He’ll be a starter in the NFL. Shawn Williams (S, Georgia) is the other safety at Georgia. He’ll be a second or third round pick.

Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU) is one of the more intriguing players to monitor. I’ve watched a fair bit of BYU tape now and you can just tell looking at his frame that he has incredible upside. Physically, he looks a lot like Justin Tuck. However, he’s incredibly raw as a pass rusher. I can’t knock his run defense — he shows a good punch at the point of attack, he’s difficult to move out of position. Yet he doesn’t always flash a great edge rush. Is it a technique issue? Can he tap into the physical potential? I like the way he’s moved around (rushes from the interior as well as the edge), but this is a good opportunity to flash his athleticism and get teams salivating over honing his technique.

Ansah is likely to line up alongside Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia) and Malliciah Goodman (DE, Clemson). Jenkins is a pure nose tackle with limited pass rushing skills, while Goodman showed enough against LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl to warrant a watchful eye during the post-season.

Among the linebackers are two players I intend to look closer at over the next few weeks — Zaviar Gooden (LB, Missouri) and Nico Johnson (LB, Alabama). The big name is Chase Thomas (LB, Stanford) — a potential second or third round pick.

There’s some talent among the offensive lineman. Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma) is a pure technician and could be the third left tackle off the board in April. Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee) had a terrific year for the Vols and can play tackle or guard. Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia) has starter potential at left tackle and Larry Warford (G, Kentucky) is a massive 345lbs guard with third round potential. It’s a nice group of tight ends too — Mychal Rivera (TE, Tennessee) and Michael Williams (TE, Alabama) will both make a roster in 2013.

Terrance Williams (WR, Baylor) is the biggest name at receiver. He suited the system at Baylor and I want to see if his speed translates to a foreign environment. There’s no doubting he has talent — and he was among the most productive receivers in college football this season. However, I’m a little concerned he’s a one-trick pony. His effort was sometimes inconsistent too and he won’t be able to get by at the next level running mostly deep routes. Cobi Hamilton (WR, Arkansas), Tavarres King (WR, Georgia), Quinton Patten (WR, Louisiana Tech) and Ryan Swope (WR, Texas A&M) all have mid-round value. Swope is going to make a fine slot receiver.

I like two of the running backs on the north roster — Andre Ellington (RB, Clemson) is a do-it-all type and should be a good receiver out of the backfield, while Stepfan Taylor (RB, Stanford) moves the chains and deserves a lot more hype. I’d draft either in round three.

It’s a big week for the quarterbacks. Fair play to Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas) for attending, likewise Landry Jones (QB, Oklahoma) and E.J. Manuel (QB, Florida State). Wilson is a mobile gun-slinger with a vocabulary superior to any of the other eligible quarterbacks at the Senior Bowl. Say what you want about Bobby Petrino, but his offensive schemes demands a lot of the quarterbacks. There’s not a great deal between Matt Barkley and Wilson to be the #1 quarterback in this class in my view. The hype for Jones is long gone, but don’t forget we’re only a year removed from many people touting him as a first round pick. He’ll be lucky to go in round three. Manuel is more of an athlete than a passer and might struggle to have much impact at the next level.

Shrine game notes (defense)

Many thanks to guest blogger Morgan Goulet for compiling this report on the Shrine game over the weekend. This piece covers the defense, he’ll have a report on the offense to come.

The mouthy and athletic Keith Pough tweaked an ankle early on, but displayed some impressive athleticism to thwart a cutback run in the third quarter, stopping on a dime, changing direction and making a diving wrap-up of the ballcarrier. With Leroy Hill’s status uncertain as the highest-paid LB on the Seahawks roster, WLB could be a position of interest come draft day and it just so happens that that’s where Pough has been spending his Saturdays.

A.J. Klein and Sio Moore also represented for the linebacker class but are two very different types of players. Klein brings his lunch pail to the field, Moore brings an energy drink. Klein was sticking his nose in the pile just about every time he was on the field, while Moore was a bit more careful in deciding where to throw his 229-lb frame. Once he made the decision, though, he wastes no time in getting there. Moore looks to have speed to burn and showed it by picking good angles and flying to the ball-carrier, especially on a nice backside loop where he traversed from one sideline to the other to make the stop. Klein looks to have a little Heath Farwell in him.

The defensive line was the story today, at least, the good part of the story. Devin Taylor stepped out of the shadow of Jadevon Clowney and walked right into the bank. How you hide 6’7″ and 270 lbs is beyond me but South Carolina found a way to do it. Taylor turned opposing offensive linemen into cardboard cut-outs today, and made Kansas guard Tanner Hawkinson his personal blocking sled. Stepping away from the carnage he left on the field for a moment to do a sideline interview, Taylor said the difference today versus the regular season was he didn’t have to play within the SC defensive scheme. He could improvise. See ball, get ball. Taylor had two sacks and two forced fumbles and likely ended the careers of several aspiring blockers. He did lose contain once, in the first quarter, but Taylor is all upside and this was a nice coming out party for him. He went on to say that he wasn’t going to get carried away, that he knows during a game to maintain a level head and not get too high, nor too low. Who does that sound like?

Maryland must have a really good defensive line coach as both A.J. Jenkins and Joe Vellano showed off fine technique to beat their man. Maryland transitioned from a 4-3 to a 3-4 this year, with the 315-lb Jenkins anchoring the line at nose and Vellano shifting from his 3-technique spot, where he amassed 94 tackles as a junior, to end. Vellano has bulked up to 300lbs from the 280 or so he played at last year. It looks like it’s robbed him of some of his short quickness but he’s still tenacious in pursuit and is a sure tackler. He also does some impressive hand-fighting and even uses a spin move (to varying success). In the first quarter lined up over West C James Ferentz and chucked him so violently and with such suddenness that Ferentz stood up as if shocked – and Vellano just ran right by him into the backfield. I’m interested to see where they go in the spring as they have tools to work with; Francis with his apparent strength and good first step and Vellano with solid technique and unstoppable motor.

Also getting some push into the backfield was Princeton DE Mike Catapano. I didn’t see a lot of moves but he uses quickness and leverage to his advantage and even reached up to get his mitts on a pass at least once. He’s 6’4, 270, and should find a place to play on Sundays next year. I kept my eye out for David Bass, the Missouri Western State DE that was the talk of the town leading up to the game, but I’ve scanned and re-scanned my notes and the only thing I have is “91 – ?”. It’s a good thing the money is made during practice, I guess.

A few performances stood out for the defensive backs. Making a positive impression was Notre Dame safety Zeke Motta. Motta has good size at 6’3 and 215lbs, but also doesn’t get lost in space and is a sure tackler. He’ll make a solid strong safety at the next level. There were five total interceptions in this game but I’m loathe to actually congratulate anyone on any of them, as most were gifts. The Seattle secondary was mentioned a lot but the seemingly analogous players didn’t really show up. Richard Sherman’s pod-person Aaron Hester out of UCLA used his 6’3, 195 lb to miss tackles and draw two PI calls. Kam Chancellor clone Cooper Taylor lacks the assassin’s creed that Kam brings and the re-digitized Earl Thomas suffered a failure to launch as Syracuse’s Shamarko Thomas is missing from my notebook. I don’t even know if he ever hit the field. Two corners from big programs did flash at times today: Miami’s Brandon McGhee and Georgia’s Branden Smith. Smith misplayed a pass that went for a touchdown early but had the stick-to-it-iveness to come back later and get a pick off of Alex Carder, who had the distinction of almost looking like a QB today, and not just Ronnie ‘Sunshine’ Bass.

Adam Schefter — Barkley will be the top quarterback

For the last few weeks on this blog, we’ve touted Matt Barkley as a potential first overall pick despite a lot of talk to the contrary. So it makes perfect sense that the week we move Barkley into the late first in the latest mock draft, ESPN’s Adam Schefter suggests Barkley will be the top quarterback drafted. You’ll have seen a lot of projections this week on NFL.com and from Mel Kiper with no quarterbacks in round one. That won’t happen. Take it to the bank. We could see multiple quarterbacks taken in the top-20. The position is too important. And today’s information from Schefter suggests Barkley will be the guy to go earliest.

Kansas City and Andy Reid make a lot of sense for Barkley. It’s just whether or not the Chiefs see enough value to address their one defining need with the #1 pick. But if they intend to wait until round two, they might find that most of the top QB’s are already off the board.