A villain? Or just a gullible young man, in over his head?

I wanted to write an article about this subject, but felt it was best to sit on it for a few days. If there’s anything this story should tell the world of journalism, it’s to do some research. There is too much unnecessary pressure on being ‘first’. Frankly, it’s been embarrassing at times watching Adam Schefter, Chris Mortensen, Ian Rapoport and Jason La Canfora trying to beat each other to the punch over every pathetic little scrap of news regarding the NFL’s coaching carousel. Is that journalism? Is it just about being able to Tweet something 32 seconds before someone else? Being able to react to a group text or email before a rival? Surely it should be about being accurate, thorough and detailed?

This is at the heart of the Manti Te’o story. Why did it take weeks to uncover the truth? Why were media conglomerates and journalists happy to tell a story of such magnitude without ever bothering to consider the full facts? Why did the truth get pushed to one side, a forgotten aspect of a story that seemed too good to be true for so many, mainly because it was.

On Twitter as the news of a hoax broke, you had the initial gasps of disbelief then people trying to play ‘detective’. Oh right! Now’s the time to do some digging! Suddenly people were explaining how Te’o ‘had to be in on it all along’.

“There was this interview three weeks ago where he said blah blah blah, so he must be in on it.”

People were hyping up his involvement, questioning his sexuality, questioning his sanity. Had the Deadspin revelation not taught anyone anything?

I am not a Notre Dame fan. I have no reason to stick up for Manti Te’o. But the way people rushed to condemn this man was equally as pathetic as the way people rushed to build him up. This was modern media at its worst. Plucking a story that sold, feeding off it for weeks, then acting shocked when it proved to be a big steaming pile of bull. Send in the lynch mob.

Here’s what I think — and I’ve actually waited to hear his side of the story, unlike some. I think Manti Te’o is very gullible. I think he can be taken advantage of. I think he truly believed there was a women out there named Lennay Kekua and that he was having some form of ‘relationship’ with her. I think he believed this girl was involved in a car crash and was then diagnosed with leukemia. I think he believed she’d died. I think he shared with his family, friends and team mates information about this ‘relationship’ — from its early stages to apparent tragic conclusion. When the media found out about this story, he talked to them about it too.

And when he found out it was a cruel practical joke, he lied to cover up the fact he’d been taken for a complete fool.

So why did he lie? Most people wouldn’t ever consider developing a relationship with a stranger on Twitter. Heck — if you meet your partner on the internet, there’s a certain stigma attached to that. In most cases that’s completely unfair. Society loves to judge people. You’re supposed to meet your partner at University, or in a bar, or while out running in Central Park. Not on the internet. In hindsight he should’ve just come forward, told the truth and taken his role as the victim. Seemingly through sheer embarrassment, he took the wrong path. One of further deceit.

It started to spiral out of control. He was in over his head. And the inevitable conclusion is what we’ve seen over the last few days. A very public, even more embarrassing spectacle. Te’o made himself look very silly.

His judgement was incredibly weak. But do we honestly believe he was in cahoots with the hoaxers all along? I can’t buy that.

People have questioned why he didn’t rush to the bed side of the supposed ‘love of his life’ when she was allegedly diagnosed with leukemia. It’s a fair question to ask. But then this is a guy who had fallen in love with a woman he’d never met. They’d never had face to face interaction. To him, spending all night with a phone pressed to his ear while ‘Lennay’ slept on the other end was probably his version of rushing to her bed side. In this bizarre relationship that he created — this was probably par for the course.

Te’o will never shake this off. He’s always going to be that gullible, foolish, inexperienced kid who made a national laughing stock of himself in his final year of college. He let himself be deceived and then he made a complete mess of trying to cover it up. But did he have any part to play in this? Did he somehow devise this whole story to try and promote himself and help Notre Dame? That just seems ridiculous. Too ridiculous even for this crazy story.

I think we are right to question how Te’o let this happen, but I don’t think we’re right to try and invent conspiracy theories on his involvement without doing the proper research. There’s a world of difference between being gullible and embarrassed and conniving and scandalous.

The other big question everyone is asking is how will it impact his draft stock? There are several things to consider here.

Is the stigma of this story too damaging that a team won’t want to deal with the hassle of this coming up again in the future? Will a lot of GM’s simply say, “let somebody else deal with this situation”?

Having met with Te’o, can teams reassure themselves that he’s thick skinned enough to deal with the forthcoming onslaught? Does he have the strength of character to deal with not just opposition players bringing it up every week, but maybe even his own team mates?

What does the incident say about his character and personality? Is he easily influenced? Is he immature? Is he constantly making bad judgements? Will this lead to problems down the line? Is he prone to moments where you just cannot fathom what he was thinking?

Part of his charm at Notre Dame was the leadership aspect he brought to the team. Is he capable of being the same leader for a NFL team given the worldwide publicity this story has received?

And most importantly, will this affect his play on the field?

Nearly every team will be monitoring his off-season closely. He’s going to be working out with other college players and presumably he’s going to be at the combine. Te’o made a big mistake in my view deciding not to attend the Senior Bowl. What a fantastic opportunity to show he was getting on with the job. There’s no point hiding. He’s better off going to Mobile, performing well and showing teams his head is back in the game. This could be a crucial error and I suspect it won’t be well received.

He does still have that opportunity to show he’s moving on with his life and not letting it impact his play. He’ll face some tough interviews and he better be ready. He needs to prove to GM’s and coaches that he’ll win the respect of his team mates by out working and out performing everyone in the pre-season. If he does that, he’ll suddenly find he has twenty or thirty players on game day willing to get his back when the opposition starts chirping.

Te’o has to be sincere and convincing. That’s the only way he’s going to repair his stock. Missing the Senior Bowl isn’t a good start. If he goes into the combine a quivering wreck, then it’s time to wonder just how low he could fall in the draft.

He could still be a first round pick. It only takes one team to believe he can get over this. Playing middle linebacker — a none premium position — doesn’t help the cause. But there’s enough teams out there who could use the Manti Te’o we saw on the field for a 12-1 Notre Dame. If he fails to convince teams he can get over this then he’s going to be avoided like the plague. Who knows where he’d fall?

Camera’s will be following his every move in the build up to the draft. If I was advising his family, I’d tell them to embrace that. Don’t reject any interviews. Answer every question. Appear to be beyond this. Try to laugh it off when you can. I have a real fear they’re going to be uptight about this subject and that will not help.

The Te’o’s need to show the NFL they can move on. The best way to combat embarrassment is to be self-depreciating and take it on the chin. If he has any ambition of being a first or second round pick, he needs to win the media battle and ace his interviews. It’s going to be a tough battle ahead. But let’s not try too hard to turn a gullible young man into a villain.

Manti Te’o conducted an interview with ESPN’s Jeremy Schaap in response to this story. For more details, click here.

Errrrr.... OK

It’s going to be very difficult to trade Matt Flynn. Not impossible, but very difficult.

John Schneider is already trying his best to create a market. In interviews with ESPN 710 and KJR this week he admitted the team will listen to offers for the quarterback. He’s also — rather optimistically — touted a value of a first or second round pick.

The main reason they won’t receive that level of interest is he’s just not as good as some people think. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported just over a week ago that we shouldn’t expect a hot market:

“Everyone keeps bringing up Flynn, but what people forget is that last offseason there were only two teams, Seattle and Miami, mildly interested in him. He did not get near the attention many thought he would. And he didn’t play this season. His value isn’t as high as many people think.”

Was it just a coincidence that all the teams last year needing a quarterback — except Seattle — said, “No thanks” to Matt Flynn?

Matt Flynn was supposed to be a big offseason target. Most scouting departments still saw him as a backup.

— NFL Philosophy (@NFLosophy) January 18, 2013

I appreciate that things change. Just because a market was cold twelve months ago doesn’t mean that’ll be the case this year. But we’re talking about a quarterback who turns 28 in June. He has a grand total of two career starts. He’ll rely on a precise passing offense with at least some structure. You can’t throw him into a rebuilding organisation and expect miracles.

Not even his former offensive coordinator in Green Bay — Joe Philbin — appeared to bang the table for his services a year ago. Instead the Dolphins risked going into the season with Matt Moore as their starter. There was no guarantee Miami would be able to draft Ryan Tannehill with the #8 pick. They could’ve had Flynn as a cost-effective alternative. It appears they didn’t think there was much difference between Moore and Flynn — at least not enough to offer a deal like Seattle.

The recent trades for Kevin Kolb and Matt Cassel will linger among league front offices. Neither deal worked out, despite the second round investment and subsequent big contracts. The coaches and GM’s that orchestrated both deals have all been fired.

There’s a growing sentiment that this is a bad off-season to need a quarterback with a number of teams trying to find an answer to the NFL’s biggest question. The thing is, you can pretty much run through each team that needs to find a signal caller and come up with a reason why they wouldn’t show much interest in Matt Flynn.

Buffalo — can anyone really see them exchanging Ryan Fitzpatrick for Matt Flynn? Talk about a sideways step. Doug Marrone favoured a big-armed, mobile quarterback in Ryan Nassib at Syracuse. GM Buddy Nix is already talking to the media about drafting a quarterback. Marrone’s old buddy Nassib will be part of the 2013 draft.

New York Jets — Mark Sanchez is guaranteed $8.25m in 2013. If the Jets bring in another quarterback, expect it to be a rookie on a modest contract. It’s unlikely to be a veteran like Flynn who is due $5.2m this year. Trying to sell Flynn as the alternative to Sanchez might be a hard sell in New York.

Cleveland — Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner favour a vertical passing game. They will not be trading for Matt Flynn. They might as well stick with Brandon Weeden.

Kansas City — This franchise spent a second round pick on Matt Cassel, who bombed. Expect Andy Reid to try a different approach, rather than repeating previous mistakes. It’s also worth noting that his three most recent starting quarterbacks in Philadelphia (Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick) all had plus mobility.

Oakland — GM Reggie McKenzie inherited a team with hardly any draft picks last year and he’s already reiterated there won’t be any more high profile deals this off-season. Carson Palmer wasn’t spectacular in 2012, but he’s far from the biggest problem for a team that has barely any structure.

Arizona — Division rival. Bruce Arians, to me, has clearly been brought in to work with a freshly drafted quarterback, just as he did in Indianapolis.

The one team I’ve not included on the list is Jacksonville. I couldn’t find any logical reason why they wouldn’t consider a trade. The decision makers that drafted Blaine Gabbert have all departed that franchise. Chad Henne is Chad Henne. It stands to reason that new Jaguars GM David Caldwell will review the position and look to stamp his own authority on that situation.

At the same time, he’s appointed a defensive minded coach in Gus Bradley. Jacksonville’s defense was among the worst in the NFL last season and that is likely to be the starting point of any rebuild. They have some pieces on offense — Maurice Jones-Drew, Eugene Monroe, Justin Blackmon, Marcedes Lewis. Despite all the hand-wringing about Gabbert, he’s barely had a fair crack in the NFL so far competing for a demoralised franchise. He’ll start the 2013 season working with his third offensive coordinator in three years. It’s not even close to ideal.

Caldwell was quick to highlight Gabbert’s youth and it’s important to remember that a lot of teams graded Gabbert highly going into the 2011 draft. Opinion was certainly split, but for every team that lacked interest in the Missouri prospect, there was a team that had Gabbert at the top of their quarterback boards. We can only guess what Caldwell’s impression was — he was part of Atlanta’s front office during the 2011 draft.

He may or may not get the opportunity to reignite his professional career, but the point is — will they be so opposed to Gabbert starting that they make a trade for a veteran such as Matt Flynn? Especially when they need every possible draft pick to rebuild a hopeless defense? Will Gabbert get one last chance, buying the new regime some time? If he fails, he was somebody else’s mistake.

There’s going to be a degree of ‘connect the dots’ with Jacksonville this off-season, purely due to Bradley’s presence within that franchise. People will assume he wants Flynn. He might do. Maybe he’ll bang the table to bring Flynn to Jacksonville? The thing is, we have no idea what his impression of the player is. We have no idea whether Caldwell would buy into any proposal, or that either man is looking for an offense built around a quarterback with Flynn’s skill-set. Bradley going to Jacksonville doesn’t make a deal any more or less likely.

Even so, the Jags are the one team I can’t come up with an obvious reason for why they wouldn’t make a trade.

You’ll hear many people play down the 2013 class of rookie quarterbacks. It’s not quite as bad as some people want you to believe. It’s perhaps understandable that the media and certain ‘sources’ want to be negative about the group. After all, when you have Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III going #1 and #2 last year — it’s a tough act to follow.

It’s easy to forget that teams and GM’s by nature love to draft their own guys. So while at the moment nobody is talking up the likes of Matt Barkley, Geno Smith, Tyler Wilson and co — there’s every chance the front offices of the NFL will convince themselves they need one of these quarterbacks over the next few weeks. Even if it’s not one of the top three, there’s every chance a Mike Glennon, Ryan Nassib or even Tyler Bray could curry favour among one or two teams in the second round.

There might not be a Luck or RGIII to take with the number one pick, but there are plenty of young quarterbacks available in the draft for teams to get at. And while there’s no guarantee this will keep happening — the Cincinnati Bengals and Seattle Seahawks have shown in the last two years you don’t need a top-ten quarterback to kick start a play-off run. Teams will fantasise about mimicking those two franchises.

There’s also the possibility of trade competition. Alex Smith seemingly has no future in San Francisco despite completing 70% of his passes in 2012, throwing 13 touchdowns and sporting a quarterback rating of 104.1. He’s one year older than Matt Flynn, but he also has eighty career starts and his last two seasons in the NFL were his most productive.

His age and previous inconsistencies will make it difficult to generate a high pick, but he’s more of a proven commodity. He’s also physically superior to Flynn. Someone will be willing to give Smith a starting job I suspect.

Ryan Mallet is another quarterback who could generate some interest. I had the opportunity to interview Mallet in October and he appeared focused and ready to make up for the disappointment of a dramatic draft-fall in 2011. Having spent two years learning from Tom Brady and being coached by Bill Belichick, this could be the off-season where teams consider kick-starting his pro-career.

Will Nick Foles become available in Philadelphia? He’s hardly an obvious fit if Chip Kelly sticks with speed at the core of his offense. Would he potentially be available for trade after featuring in seven games in 2012? Would Andy Reid consider a deal for Kansas City having previously drafted the former Arizona quarterback?

With reports suggesting Tampa Bay has no plans to discuss a contract extension with Josh Freeman, could he find himself on the trade block? He can walk for nothing next year without a contract — and he’d have to play some spectacular football to warrant the franchise tag. Working on a trade this off-season could make sense if the Buccs have already made up their mind on Freeman. Of course, this could just be sending a message that he needs to improve. And if he was dealt, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would then need to find a replacement, creating another team potentially in the market for a guy like Flynn.

Overall I think these arguments out-weigh the reasons why a team would consider trading for Flynn. He’s still a largely untested NFL quarterback. The Seahawks needed someone before the draft last year to compete with Tarvaris Jackson. Let’s not forget — their first call went to Chad Henne, who didn’t leave the Jacksonville HQ without a contract. Signing Flynn was the right move to make at the time. But it was an unchallenged move as far as the rest of the NFL was concerned.

As I mentioned at the start though, a trade is far from impossible. It might have to be a creative deal. Perhaps they can make a move that takes influence from the infamous Charlie Whitehurst trade in 2010?

On that occasion the Seahawks dealt a third round pick to San Diego, but also swapped second rounders. The Chargers moved up twenty spots from #60 to #40. While I can’t see any new picks coming Seattle’s way (such as the extra third rounder) perhaps they could work something out to swap picks with a team in the second, third or fourth round? Putting themselves in position to draft a superior player, without actually generating any new picks?

That’s probably the best they can hope for and it shouldn’t be sniffed at either. If the Seahawks want to get a defensive lineman and a receiver (for example) within their first two or three picks, drafting earlier in round 2/3 would be a considerable advantage. One of the stumbling blocks could be that the quarterback-needy teams all pick at the very start of round two where there could be something of a run on rookie quarterbacks. When John Schneider completed the Whitehurst deal with San Diego, there were no obvious early second round quarterbacks to draft. This probably makes a deal like this more likely in the third or fourth round.

Even that might be a stretch for a 28-year-old career back-up (sorry, but that’s what he is). Those clinging to the hope of a straight out first or second round pick are probably going to be disappointed.

If the Seahawks do trade Flynn, they’ll need a back-up. Expect a veteran addition with a similar athletic skill-set to Russell Wilson. They could also look to the draft — and Arizona’s Matt Scott might be a later round target. His tape against Nevada in the New Mexico can be found below:

No time to sleep? Pete Carroll might as well adopt Russell Wilson’s motto from now on. Almost immediately after Gus Bradley was named the new Head Coach at Jacksonville, Dan Quinn was confirmed as the replacement defensive coordinator.

The timing suggests to me that Bradley was focused on taking a Head Coaching role. Some reports have claimed it was only Chip Kelly’s sudden change of mind that usurped Bradley from the Eagles job. Twenty-four hours later, he took the Jaguars gig. Quinn’s return to Seattle had probably been planned for a few days, with Carroll likely knowing Bradley would be taking one of the jobs he was interviewing for.

It’s a seamless transition — Quinn is familiar with the Seahawks set-up having previously worked under Pete Carroll as defensive line coach in 2010. He was originally appointed by Jim Mora the year before.

This will remain Carroll’s defense. His scheme. His vision. There was no big-name coming in to make sweeping changes like we’re seeing in Dallas or St. Louis. This was about getting on with the job with minimal fuss. Quinn will have his own concepts, his own ideas. But he’s mainly coming here to implement Carroll’s master-plan. Much in the same way Darrell Bevell and Tom Cable are working on his plan for the offense. Carroll is king in Seattle.

This almost certainly means a continuation of the 4-3 under defense, which is often mistaken for a hybrid. We discussed it in some detail earlier in the season. Quinn had a positive impact on Red Bryant’s switch to defensive end in 2010 and I don’t see any reason to think the Seahawks will move away from that experiment. They might be more creative though — using balanced four man fronts on certain downs. It’s worth noting that Florida mixed between three and four man fronts to try and create pressure, without blitzing a great deal.

It stands to reason that at least two new pass rushers will be added to the roster. There won’t be any big changes to the defense, but we could see some fresh ideas installed to the defensive line. What more would you expect from a man who coaches wearing a ‘SWARM’ T-shirt?

Inevitably you’re going to start seeing Florida prospects linked with the Seahawks now. Every mock draft will have defensive lineman Sharrif Floyd penned next to Seattle. Quinn will no doubt pass on valuable information about several of his former players, but I don’t think his appointment as defensive coordinator has much impact as to whether we see any Florida Gators players drafted by this team.

Speaking of Floyd, I keep flipping my opinion of him. Firstly I was intrigued by his potential and back-story. Then, after watching more tape, I came to the conclusion his best position would be the five technique in a 3-4. In preparation for this weeks mock I felt obliged to go back and watch two of his games again. And low and behold, I’m still trying to work him out.

I still maintain he’s best suited to the 3-4. Yet there are little flashes that just make you wonder if he can play inside in the 4-3. He’s got a superb motor, he’s a big-time athlete for 298lbs and when he plays low he’s a real force against the run. Can he be coached up and develop into a productive interior pass rusher given time? Perhaps.

He needs to improve his hand use because it’s pretty poor at the moment and he lacks that explosive burst that we see from players like Sheldon Richardson and Sylvester Williams. That might be the real stumbling block here. A classic three-technique — more than anything — flies out of the traps. That initial step forward is crucial. Exploding into a gap or initiating contact into a swim or dip is how you make your money at that position. Floyd has too many wasted steps without advancing or engaging. You can have the attitude, the size and the athleticism for the position, but there’s an X-factor to the role that’s maybe lacking here. It’s undoubtedly the main reason there are so few great three-techniques in the NFL.

A Florida player who’s maybe more likely to be on Seattle’s radar is linebacker Jelani Jenkins. At the top of this piece you’ll find audio from John Schneider’s appearance on ESPN 710 yesterday. He told Mike Salk and Brock Huard that he was impressed by the group of junior linebackers available in 2013. Well, there’s only four — Alec Ogletree, Kevin Minter, Jelani Jenkins and Tom Wort.

Not only is Jenkins an elite athlete (and former #1 overall recruit), he’s also very intelligent — recording  a 4.0 grade-point average in high school due to higher weighted advanced placement courses. No, he is not related to Jenoris Jenkins. He ran a 11.14 100 metres in high school and  also threw the discus. After yesterday’s touting of Margus Hunt as a possible draft pick, what chance the Seahawks draft two discus throwers in April?

Here’s Jenkins’ blurb via Scout.com during recruitment: “An absolute assassin from his linebacker position, Jenkins is always in attack mode. Because of his athletic ability and anticipation, he is equally comfortable reading a play to make a tackle as he is forcing the action on a blitz. He’s a sideline to sideline linebacker that is never out of a play because of his athletic gifts and his desire. As he gets bigger in college, he’ll be just plain scary.”

Of course, it never quite worked out that way. He’s added 30lbs in college but still struggles taking on blocks and his tackling can be poor. We’re talking about a big time athlete here, but will the speed compensate for the lack of physical skills at the next level? Maybe for a team like Seattle. When he doesn’t have to get his hands dirty, he’s an elite linebacker. He’s about as good a sideline-to-sideline player you’ll ever find. If he can find a crease he’ll explode into the backfield, but he moves around the second level with ease and he’s decisive in coverage. Ask him to play great run defense or up at the line and he’s going to struggle.

The Seahawks appear to want athletes at linebacker that can move. They’re not asking them to do a lot of pass rushing and the WILL isn’t really getting involved with the offensive line up front. You need to let Jenkins just roam around, use his instinct and react to plays. Because of his size, he’s probably going to go in the late second or early third round. Unless Carroll feels he already has this type of player in Malcolm Smith, he could be in play for Seattle’s second round pick. And out of all the Florida Gators prospects, he’s probably the one to keep an eye on.

Note — I’ve included Sharrif Floyd and Jelani Jenkins tape at the bottom of this article

Quinn’s greatest influence could be on an existing Seahawk. Jaye Howard had virtually no impact for the team this year, usually finding himself among the list of inactives. Surely Schneider and/or Carroll spoke to Quinn before making this pick last year? If so, you have to assume he gave a glowing review. After all, they drafted him in round four. Howard registered 65 tackles, 10 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks in his only year under Quinn’s guidance.

It’s possible that he could be a late bloomer at the pro-level. The only problem is, the Seahawks cannot afford to wait and see if he improves. They can’t rely on Jaye Howard. And whether it’s via free agency or the draft, a player or two will almost certainly be placed directly above the former Gator on the depth chart. Even so, he has a lot of potential and working with Quinn again could help.

As for Gus Bradley, I think it’s a great hire for Jacksonville. He’ll bring energy to that Jaguars franchise and almost certainly a much improved defense. It’s going to be a tough job – he’ll be inheriting the worst pass rush in the league, plus a franchise that still has a lot of question marks at the quarterback position. Look for the #2 overall pick to be spent on a pass rusher. Bradley will know, however, that he has to find the right solution at quarterback to ultimately be successful. He’ll need to decide whether Chad Henne, Blaine Gabbert or someone else can lead that offense. For those hoping Matt Flynn will be traded this off-season, you better hope that Bradley was impressed during their year in Seattle together.

Schneider speaks out

There are a few other things I wanted to discuss after listening to John Schneider with Brock and Salk yesterday.

His admission of greater interest in the receiver class was reassuring. There is a cluster of talented players worthy of first and second round grades. The Seahawks are perfectly placed at #25 to consider investing in another target for Russell Wilson — and could even launch a run on the position.

Just list the names — DeAndre Hopkins, Robert Woods, Cordarrelle Patterson, Zach Ertz, Tavon Austin, Markus Wheaton, Justin Hunter, Keenan Allen, Terrance Williams, Tyler Eifert, Gavin Escobar. There’s also quite a lot of range too, be it with size, speed, catching, YAC or kick returning. If we’re talking about round one, I maintain that Hopkins and Ertz are the two best fits. Both seem to fit the character of this team (hard working, professional, consistent). You can just imagine both players developing a great relationship with Russell Wilson — working overtime in the off-season to build a chemistry.

I wrote an article at the start of January arguing that Hopkins was a top-20 talent. You can check it out by clicking here. If you like receivers who catch nearly everything, score touchdowns and run great routes, Hopkins is your man. Ertz is the prototype of a modern tight end – big, athletic, can stretch the field and run a deep post despite his size. He was Stanford’s most productive receiver last year and would be a nice compliment to Zach Miller — allowing the Seahawks to run a lot more 2TE sets.

If the Seahawks go in a different direction (eg – defensive line) then any of the names listed above would be worthy second round additions. I’d be a little surprised if Carroll and Schneider ended day two of the draft without a new pass-catcher.

He also touted a group of ‘unique’ pass rushers. I don’t think there’s any mystery to what he’s referring to here. How many other draft classes contain the following defensive lineman:

– Dion Jordan — a converted 6-7 tight end with the speed to play linebacker or even safety

– Margus Hunt — a former 6-8 discus thrower from Estonia with dynamic pass-rushing qualities

– Ezekiel Ansah — a 6-4 defensive end from Ghana with two years of football experience who doesn’t even understand what AFC and NFC means

– Bjoern Werner — a German pass rusher from Berlin, discovered as a football prospect while acting as an exchange student in Connecticut

That’s just a sample of the ‘different’ types of player available this year. I suspect this is all the more intriguing for a guy like Schneider, who will enjoy getting to know these players and learning about their backgrounds. I wouldn’t bet against any being future Seahawks.

I noticed among some of the comments in yesterday’s mock draft update that several people feel we’ve overplayed Seattle’s penchant for the unusual — the avoidance of conventional wisdom. I wouldn’t try to argue that the Seahawks will only make quirky draft picks. I think we have to keep an open mind, though. We’ve projected a lot of different picks so far — Ertz, Hopkins, Sylvester Williams, Arthur Brown, Margus Hunt. Different players, positions and backgrounds. Some teams will just write-off a prospect like Hunt and not even include him on their big board. I suspect the Seahawks won’t do that, at least not because he’ll be 26 next summer and is new to the game.

Carroll and Schneider do it their way. Sometimes their way will be a little out there, other times it’ll be a lot more conventional. The Head Coach wants a pass rush though — and as the General Manager notes — this is a unique bunch of pass rushers.

Considering I’ve talked about them in this article, I’ve included tape below of Sharrif Floyd’s performance against Florida State from this season. There’s also Jelani Jenkins display against the Seminoles from 2011 (no 2012 tape available yet):

Could the unfortunate Kaleb Ramsey be a late-round steal?

Further thoughts on the defense

Coaching changes?

Suddenly both of Seattle’s coordinators are hot property. Gus Bradley is meeting with Philadelphia and Jacksonville. Darrell Bevell will also speak with Jacksonville along with division rival Arizona and Chicago. The NFL wants a piece of Seattle’s 2012 magic and Pete Carroll could have two big holes to fill this off-season.

If Bradley leaves — and premature reports suggested he’d already accepted the Eagles gig — who replaces him? And how will that impact Carroll’s ambition to improve a struggling pass rush?

New Mexico State Head Coach DeWayne Walker was linked to the Seahawks upon Carroll’s appointment in 2010. He runs an aggressive and creative defense, having previously worked for Greg Williams in Washington. Walker and Carroll became close during their time at USC. His spell at New Mexico State has been something of a disaster so far – they recorded a 1-11 record in 2012 and he’s 10-40 overall with the Aggies. Whether that would have any impact on a potential return to the NFL remains to be seen, but he has pro-level experience and a move to Seattle could prove to be a convenient way out of a bad situation.

Would Carroll consider appointing from within? Rocky Seto (pass-defense coordinator), Kris Richard (secondary coach), Todd Wash (defensive line) or even Ken Norton Junior (linebackers) could be promoted in order to maintain stability.

What about trying to entice Dan Quinn back to the Pacific North West? He took over as the Florida Gators’ defensive coordinator last year after a spell as Seattle’s defensive line coach. Could they go for a big name looking for a route back into the league? Lovie Smith is unemployed and wants to coach in 2013. He hasn’t received much interest in terms of becoming a Head Coach again, but a productive year as a coordinator could make him a popular choice in twelve months time.

Why not make a left field decision? Who expected Monte Kiffin to go to Dallas? Could there be a similar surprise in Seattle, with a name nobody expects? Perhaps from a background nobody expects? Pete Carroll is the main architect of this defense, but would he welcome an outside voice and some fresh ideas to get the pass-rush going?

Bradley would leave a void on the coaching staff, but it’s something Carroll is used to. His success at USC meant he was forced to replace coordinators all the time. While the Seahawks keep winning and setting trends, other teams are going to want to try and mimic that success.

While it’s unlikely they’ll go for a complete 360 by switching schemes like Jerry Jones in Dallas, it’ll be interesting to see who — if anyone — replaces Bradley. And it could bring some insight into the kind of players they’ll look for in free agency and the draft.

Trading up?

Some people have asked how likely it is the Seahawks move up in round one to target a specific player. Sheldon Richardson appears to be the best true three-technique in the 2013 draft class. He could be a top-1o pick, but there’s also every chance he slides a little. New Orleans at #15 overall might be his floor, but even they have to consider other needs such as an effective edge rusher.

Moving up would appear to be detrimental for this team given how well they’ve used later round picks in the Carroll/Schneider era. Losing a third or fourth rounder could mean losing out on another Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, K.J. Wright or Kam Chancellor. Even so, the team is in a stronger position today to consider moving up. There’s really only one striking need — improving the pass rush. Targeting a particular player to fill that remaining need would be considered a pro-active move.

Schneider was part of the front office in Green Bay that completed a big trade to get Clay Matthews in 2009. The Packers moved from #41 to #26 — a jump of 15 spots — to acquire their pass rusher. That year Green Bay was transitioning to the 3-4 defense and picked B.J. Raji to play nose tackle with the ninth overall pick. Matthews was going to be the edge rusher in the scheme, and they had to get their guy. He won defensive rookie of the year in 2009 and followed it up with a Super Bowl ring the season after. It proved to be an unmitigated success.

The trade cost the Packers two third round picks. It was a steep price, but ultimately worthwhile. There’s a tendency to overvalue draft picks sometimes, even when you have a front office with Seattle’s recent success in the middle rounds. Eventually, you’re going to have more drafts than not where you aren’t finding impact starters in the 4th or 5th rounds. You’re not going to find a franchise quarterback in round three every year. Being pro-active can be part of tipping a team over the edge. Matthews had that kind of impact for the Packers. We’re seeing some of that with Julio Jones in Atlanta too.

It’s also worth noting what the New England Patriots got in return for that trade. They used the #41 pick to draft to get cornerback Darius Butler (since released), traded one of the third round picks to Jacksonville — who selected cornerback Derek Cox (a regular starter for the Jaguars in 2012) — and selected receiver Brandon Tate with the other pick (since released). For all of Bill Belichick’s reputation as an arch-trader on draft day, he didn’t win this battle with Ted Thompson.

Moving up isn’t a total write-off for this team. There’s no doubting they’d rather avoid doing it, but sometimes needs must. The Seahawks’ window is officially open and they need to make the most of it.

The impact of free agency

March 12th can’t get here soon enough. That’s the day when the new league year starts and free agency begins. Ever since Pete Carroll’s admittance yesterday that he wants to improve the pass rush, I’m guessing a lot of people have been trying to work out how he’s going to do it. And the truth is, we won’t really know until we see what they do in free agency.

Do they re-sign Jason Jones and Alan Branch? Do they go after a veteran three-technique? Will they consider signing a proven pass rusher like Osi Umenyiora? These are all questions that’ll shape the Seahawks ambitions in the draft. I’ll be publishing an updated mock draft tomorrow, and it’s difficult to consider anything but defense. Yet the Seahawks have used free-agency to fill needs in the past. They paid big money to land Robert Gallery, Sidney Rice, Zach Miller and Matt Flynn. Although we’re looking at a defensive draft today, things could be very different by March.

I still believe they’d like to add at least one new target to the offense for Russell Wilson. Guys like Zach Ertz and DeAndre Hopkins make a lot of sense for this offense and for this quarterback. Unless they use free agency to solve the problems up front on defense though, can they really afford to go in that direction?

Semantics?

Last year, Pete Carroll didn’t simply identify the pass rush as the teams greatest need. He actually said he wanted to add speed to the front seven. It wasn’t just about bringing in a guy like Bruce Irvin, it was just as much about getting a linebacker who could move around too. Bobby Wagner was the pick in the end, but he could easily have gone for a Zach Brown or Mychal Kendricks instead.

This year, Carroll isn’t using the word ‘speed’ anymore. And he isn’t talking about the front seven. This is all about the pass rush and the defensive line.

Maybe this is just pure semantics, but I’m going to read into it anyway. The Seahawks might not be looking for a certain physical trait here. They might just be looking for guys who gets it done. Whatever position, whatever way. It could be a great edge rusher, or a dominating interior presence. I suspect this will be a broad search.

What I’m trying to work out is whether this means a raw, untapped talent is less likely than a guy who has shown he can get the job done. Will Carroll be less inclined to go for a Ezekiel Ansah at BYU or a Margus Hunt at SMU because they’re more upside than proven commodity? Do we need to look at prospects with a track record of success in college (or the NFL if we’re talking about free agents)? Or does that work against one of their key philosophies of looking at what a player ‘can’ do as opposed to what he ‘can’t’ do?

Carroll and John Schneider have been emphatic in filling needs so far and there’s no reason to believe they won’t succeed in this latest challenge either. It’s going to be fascinating to see how they try to work this out.

Late round defensive tackle

Kaleb Ramsey weighs 285-290lbs at 6-2 and he rushes the passer. He also has a very unfortunate injury record. He applied for an extra year of eligibility after missing almost all of Boston College’s 2011 season. Unfortunately, things didn’t get much better in 2012. He played two games before again succumbing to injury. A plantar fasciitis issue kept him out, much to the disappointment of his teammates and any fan of a team looking for a three-technique option beyond round one.

Not many defensive tackles can chase down Colin Kaepernick. Kaleb Ramsey can. I’ve included his game tape below against Nevada from 2010 and you can see the kind of talent that’s been wasted the last two years. It’s going to cost him on draft day — teams will not be able to trust an injury record consisting of so many problems. He’s had concussions, hip problems, a nasty foot injury in 2011 to go along with the plantar fasciitis. The concern isn’t going to be so much what he does on the field, rather that he may never actually leave the medical room.

Even so, it’s a name I wanted to throw out there as a possible late round option for the Seahawks. He’ll probably get a chance in the NFL to prove he can stay healthy and pro-conditioning could boost his chances of making it at the next level.

Underclassmen update

Today is the deadline for underclassmen to declare, and we’re not expecting any late drama (see: 2009, Mark Sanchez). A lot of Seahawks fans will want to know about Rutgers wide-out Brandon Coleman, but it appears he’s be staying in school. He admitted he was considering the NFL to his local media, but with no official announcement either way it looks like he’ll play another year of college football in 2013.

Here’s the list in full of the underclassmen declaring for the draft:

Tyler Bray (QB, Tennessee)
Kyle Padron (QB, Eastern Washington)
Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
Giovani Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
Joseph Randle (RB, Oklahoma State)
Marcus Lattimore (RB, South Carolina)
Le’Veon Bell (RB, Michigan State)
Jawan Jamison (RB, Rutgers)
Cierre Wood (RB, Notre Dame)
Knile Davis (RB, Arkansas)
Spencer Ware (RB, LSU)
Stefphon Jefferson (RB, Nevada)
Michael Ford (RB, LSU)
Travis Ward (RB, Tennessee State)
Keenan Allen (WR, California)
Robert Woods (WR, USC)
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
Da’Rick Rogers (WR, Tennessee Tech)
Stedman Bailey (WR, West Virginia)
Kenny Stills (WR, Oklahoma)
Josh Boyce (WR, TCU)
Brandon Kaufman (WR, Eastern Washington)
Marquess Wilson (WR, Washington State)
Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
Jordan Reed (TE, Florida)
Dion Sims (TE, Michigan State)
Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
Levine Toilolo (TE, Stanford)
Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
Justin Pugh (T, Syracuse)
Chris Faulk (T, LSU)
Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
David Bakhtiari (T, Colorado)
Alvin Bailey, (G, Arkansas)
Travis Frederick (C, Wisconsin)
Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M)
Sam Montgomery (DE, LSU)
Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)
William Gholston (DE, Michigan State)
Stansly Maponga (DE, TCU)
Joe Kruger (DE, Utah)
Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia)
Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
Akeem Spence (DT, Illinois)
Bennie Logan (DT, LSU)
Kwame Geathers (DT, Georgia)
Brandon Moore (DT, Texas)
Darrington Sentimore (DT, Tennessee)
Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)
Jelani Jenkins (LB, Florida)
Tom Wort (LB, Oklahoma)
Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
Logan Ryan (CB, Logan Ryan)
David Amerson (CB, NC State)
Tharold Simon (CB, LSU)
Nickell Robey (CB, USC)
Tyrann Mathieu (CB, LSU)
Terrence Brown (CB, Stanford)
Steve Williams (CB, California)
Mike Edwards (CB, Hawaii)
Matt Elam (S, Florida)
Eric Reid (S, LSU)
Tony Jefferson (S, Oklahoma)
Brad Wing (P, LSU)

The following players have announced they won’t be turning pro this year:

Tajh Boyd (QB, Clemson)
Derek Carr (QB, Fresno State)
A.J. McCarron (QB, Alabama)
Aaron Murray (QB, Georgia)
Bryn Renner (QB, North Carolina)
Dri Archer (RB, Kent State)
Jake Sims (RB, Kansas State)
Trey Millard (FB, Oklahoma)
Cody Hoffman (WR, BYU)
Jordan Matthews (WR, Vanderbilt)
Ace Sanders (WR, South Carolina)
Ju’Wuan James (T, Tennessee)
Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan)
Zack Martin (T, Notre Dame)
Jake Matthews (T, Texas A&M)
Morgan Moses (T, Virginia)
Zach Fulton (G, Tennessee)
Garrison Smith (DE, Georgia)
Kyle Van Noy (DE, BYU)
DeAndre Coleman (DT, California)
Ra’Shede Hageman (DT, Minnesota)
Daniel McCullers (DT, Tennessee)
Louis Nix (DT, Notre Dame)
Will Sutton (DT, Arizona State)
Anthony Barr (LB, UCLA)
Jonathan Brown (LB, Illinois)
C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama)
Khalil Mack (LB, Buffalo)
Aaron Colvin (CB, Oklahoma)
Antone Exum (CB, Virginia Tech)
Justin Gilbert (CB, Oklahoma State)
Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio State)
Jason Verrett (CB, TCU)

Today’s game tape

Yesterday I published tape of Sheldon Richardson, Margus Hunt, Alex Okafor, Ezekiel Ansah and Sylvester Williams. In order to continue to look at the pass rushers available in 2013, I’ve posted further tape below of Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn), Kawann Short (DT, Purdue), John Simon (DE, Ohio State), Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) and Malliciah Goodman (DE, Clemson).

Russell Wilson almost pulled off a miracle

Well, that’s a cruel way for a season to end.

The Seahawks had no business making this a close game after an error-strewn first half. Marshawn Lynch’s fumble, odd play calling in the red zone and bad time management all combined to give Atlanta a 20-0 lead at half time. Somehow this team came back. They fought their way back into the game. And with 30 seconds to go, they led. 28-27.

Surely not?

Unfortunately, 30 seconds was enough for Matt Ryan. He completed two big passes and Matt Bryant kicked a field goal. Game almost over. The Falcons decided to give the Seahawks one more chance with a bizarre on-side kick attempt, but the game had gone.

One stop… one stop away from one of the greatest playoff comebacks in the history of the NFL. A pass rush, a brilliant play in coverage, a mistake from Ryan. That’s all it would’ve taken for a victory. In reality it was always going to be a tough ask. Atlanta’s two timeouts were crucial. They could send receivers deep to drive open the field in a prevent formation, and the ability to stop the clock kept the middle as an option. The last big play went to Tony Gonzalez – probably the last player you want to try and cover in this situation.

There won’t be any trip to San Francisco next week. Instead, the 49ers travel to Atlanta for the NFC Championship game. San Francisco has to feel good about its chances. The Seahawks never truly exploited Atlanta’s weakness against the zone read, something Colin Kaepernick won’t have much trouble doing. They’ve just seen how badly mistakes cost the Seahawks so expect a tight game. The 49ers can’t ask for a better match-up to try and make a Super Bowl. This is no New York Giants outfit playing inspired football.

Looking back it’s hard to know what to think about the first half mistakes. Without such a miserable initial two quarters, there’s no heroic second half comeback. The end result could’ve been the same even if it wasn’t 20-0 at the break. Even so, we saw how fragile the Falcons are under pressure. When the Seahawks asked the question, they struggled. They couldn’t stop Russell Wilson. Suddenly in the fourth quarter, they struggled on offense. It would’ve been interesting to see how this game would’ve played out had the Falcons conceded early points.

Still, it didn’t happen. And there’s little point dwelling on uncharacteristic mistakes. The result won’t change.

It’s better to savour the great face-saving effort of the second half. At one point it looked like the Seahawks were being exposed. It looked like it was going to be a long off-season, with people second-guessing just how good this team really is. A beat-down on the big stage isn’t a good look. Instead, respect was earned. Wilson’s star quality is extended. It was very nearly a victory for the ages.

The defeat means the Seahawks will pick 25th overall in the 2013 draft. They had the same pick last time they made the divisional round of the playoffs in 2011. James Carpenter was the choice on that occasion. Baltimore’s victory against Denver on Saturday ensured the Seahawks jumped up a spot. Green Bay will pick 26th overall.

This season will be defined as the year Wilson appeared on the scene. It’s been one of the most enjoyable years in franchise history, mostly because of the teams rookie quarterback. The greatest question mark for any franchise is finding a quarterback. The Seahawks don’t just have a good one, they have a great one. The Seahawks won’t win the Super Bowl this season, but they found a long-term franchise quarterback. That’ll do for now.

It’s a young roster already punching above its weight. The secondary looks set for a generation, the offensive line has shown great promise and there are playmakers on both sides of the ball.

There also improvements to be made. The pass rush simply isn’t good enough. Ryan wasn’t sacked today and the defensive line has had issues all season trying to create pressure — even against the bad teams. If the defense ever wants to be known as truly elite, you have to be able to press the leagues best quarterbacks more than the Seahawks are doing. The Falcons pass rush wasn’t much better, and it might prove to be their downfall next week.

The injury to Chris Clemons is a big concern, because Bruce Irvin didn’t look ready to be a full-time LEO today. It might be time to appreciate Irvin for what he is — a specialist pass rusher for obvious passing downs. He will get 8-12 sacks a year in this role, which is still a good enough return to warrant a first round pick in my view. If Clemons misses considerable time with an ACL injury, they have to look at alternatives. Osi Umenyiora might not cost the earth aged 32 and seems like a reasonable free agent addition if the terms are fair. Alex Okafor is a more orthodox pass rusher who can play the run and should also be an option in this years draft. An Estonian pass rushing discuss thrower? No other explanation is needed to tout Margus Hunt as a possible Seahawks pick.

It also extends beyond the possible need to replace Clemons if he faces a long recovery period. The interior pass rush is the biggest need on the roster. They have to find a more orthodox three-technique to rush inside. It’s surely the number one priority, because it’s the only position on the defensive line other than the LEO with consistent pass rushing responsibility. If we’re going to play the 4-3 under, let’s at least do it justice by using a proper three-technique. The Seahawks have to do what it takes to get the pass rush going next season.

On offense, it’s all about adding weapons for Wilson. Providing the quarterback with the best environment to progress will be the key to consistent winning season. Another strong target wouldn’t go amiss. The ambition for this team next season has to be to regain the NFC West, secure the #1 seed and home field advantage. The best way for this team to get back to the Super Bowl is to play home games and keep Wilson rocking.

There’s enough talent to be optimistic about the future, but there’s also the key needs to keep the long off-season interesting. We’ll cover it all on seahawksdraftblog.com.

Updated 2013 draft order

1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Oakland Raiders
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Detroit Lions
6. Cleveland Browns
7. Arizona Cardinals
8. Buffalo Bills
9. New York Jets
10. Tennessee Titans
11. San Diego Chargers
12. Miami Dolphins
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14. Carolina Panthers
15. New Orleans Saints
16. St. Louis Rams
17. Pittsburgh Steelers
18. Dallas Cowboys
19. New York Giants
20. Chicago Bears
21. Cincinnati Bengals
22. St. Louis Rams
23. Minnesota Vikings
24. Indianapolis Colts
25. Seattle Seahawks
26. Green Bay Packers
27. Houston Texans
28. Denver Broncos

These will get you in the mood for tomorrow…

Still Seattle's ideal first round pick?

Before I start, I wanted to apologise for the hosting issues we’ve had in the last 48 hours. My provider migrated to a new server and there was chaos for a little while. You maybe missed this week’s mock draft or a piece I wrote yesterday on Margus Hunt. Hopefully the problems are now in the past.

Ideal picks for the Seahawks

It’s been a while since we looked at some of the ‘ideal’ options for the Seahawks. The deadline to declare for the 2013 draft is four days away and we still haven’t heard confirmation either way from guys like Brandon Coleman. For now I’m going to concentrate on prospects that are definitely going to be part of this years draft class. I wanted to note a list so that we could come back to this piece and review it in a few weeks to see how things have changed.

Even though it’s only January, I think the Seahawks are going to find it really difficult to address their biggest need in the first round. Sheldon Richardson is the only true three-technique worthy of such grade — and there’s almost no chance he’ll be on the board when the team picks. There’s every chance he could be a top five pick. He plays with an intensity comparable to the classic three techniques, but also moves so well for a guy at 295-300lbs. He’s strong at the point of attack and can provide constant interior pressure. It’ll take a minor miracle for him to fall, or at least some pretty serious character flaws. I’m not sure calling Georgia’s style of play, “old man football” or taking a one-game ban after skipping class is going to be enough.

For me, he’s still the Seahawks #1 ideal draft pick. Richardson’s presence would take an already productive defense to another level. Imagine the coverage skills of Seattle’s secondary, the speed of the linebackers, the size up front to work against the run and a consistent pass rush in base? The word ‘elite’ gets thrown around too often, but with a legitimate three-technique on the roster — the Seahawks would be getting mighty close. We can make an argument for adding a talented receiver, a linebacker or simply the best player available. Richardson would be the perfect storm of need meeting talent. It’s just a shame it’s unlikely to happen.

The only other players I think you could consider for this role are Utah’s Star Lotulelei and North Carolina’s Sylvester Williams. Lotulelei has been very inconsistent but he’s got incredible upside and won’t get out of the top-15. He’s 320lbs which would make him big for a three technique. Williams has a superb swim move, he’s always active and makes plays. His body type looks a little more suited to the one-technique position, but he’s the next best fit after Richardson. I had him at #14 to Carolina in my latest mock.

I said I’d watch LSU’s Bennie Logan this week and I wasn’t all that impressed after watching three games. He gets very little push against the run, he can be driven back and he’s a very limited pass rusher. Johnathan Hankins (who I don’t rate) and Jonathan Jenkins are both bigger tackles ill-suited to the position, while Sharrif Floyd (see tape below) and Jesse Williams might be at their best acting as an orthodox five technique in the 3-4. I still think the Seahawks might have to tap into the free agent market here to solve their biggest need.

For more on why Sheldon Richardson might be Seattle’s ideal first round pick in 2013, click here

Top five ‘ideal picks’ – 11th January

#1 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)

#2 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)

#3 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)

#4 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)

#5 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)

Wild card: Margus Hunt (DE, SMU) – there’s something about a 275lbs pass-rushing discuss thrower from Estonia that screams Pete Carroll and John Schneider.

Coaching appointments impacting the draft

Thanks to a conversation with Kip for sparking this part of today’s article…

There’s been a couple of interesting developments in the last 24 hours that could have an impact on the draft. Firstly, the Jacksonville Jaguars appointed David Caldwell to be their new General Manager — and he immediately ruled out any possibility that Tim Tebow would end up with the team. Caldwell couldn’t have been any more forthright about it. Being so ruthless on this matter was quite simply the only thing he could be, removing the question from future press conferences and allowing the Jaguars to move on without the need for a quarterback who will never start in the NFL. I’m not sure Tebow has much of a future in the league.

Of course, the issue now moves on to what the Jaguars will do at the position. Caldwell highlighted Blaine Gabbert’s youth in defense of his inauspicious start in the NFL, but made only a passing reference to Chad Henne. The appointment of a new Head Coach will be a big determining factor here. San Francisco offensive coordinator Greg Roman is the hot tip as a close friend of Caldwell, although you have to wonder if the pair want to work together in any environment where the GM might have to one day fire the Head Coach. If Roman lands in Jacksonville, does it increase the chances of a potential trade for Alex Smith? Is that too obvious to be plausible? Do they consider the draft?

Personally I think Jacksonville needs to concentrate on the pass rush, because it’s the worst in the league. In my updated mock I had them doubling up on defensive ends with Bjoern Werner and Alex Okafor. They could also consider an interior pass rusher with the #2 pick. If Roman does move to the Jaguars (and that would be great news for the other NFC West teams, by the way) you have to wonder if he’d target a big running back to compliment Maurice Jones-Dre. Alabama’s Eddie Lacy has a little Frank Gore to his game and is likely to be a second or third round pick. The 49ers built their recent success on good defense and running the football. A Roman-Caldwell partnership would probably go down this route too with a facilitator at quarterback.

I still think it’s too early to completely write off Gabbert – who has the misfortune of having to deal with a third new offensive scheme in three years. It’s hard to think of a worse situation for a young signal caller entering the league. Whatever happens I still think Gabbert, Henne or an acquired veteran is more likely in year one of this rebuild. Why ruin the career of two young quarterbacks drafted in the top ten? They need to put down some roots. Although you can never truly rule out a new GM and coaching combo simply deciding they want their own man. Interesting times for Jaguars fans.

In Cleveland, lifelong Browns fan and former offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski has been named as the teams new Head Coach. It seems he is set to appoint Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator. Although this news made for some disappointment among Browns fans, I think it’s an inspired choice. Cleveland tried and failed to deliver a big name like Chip Kelly, but this could end up turning out for the best.

Chudzinski and Turner will run a vertical passing game with a heavy dose of run. That completely suits the roster they’re inheriting. Let’s not forget here, the Browns don’t own a second round pick after taking Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft. They have the #6 pick as their one true shot to add an impact starter. CEO Joe Banner is likely to be the decision maker within the front office and he’s had his feet under the table for some time now. He’ll have watched a lot of college football in 2012 and will already have an idea of the direction he wants to go in re-shaping this team.

There’s every chance he’s decided, after looking at the top prospects available in this years draft, that there isn’t much of a chance to completely rebuild the offense. They have big receivers who can get downfield, a decent offensive line, a potential superstar at running back and a quarterback with some faults – but he’s a much better fit in a vertical passing attack than the west coast offense run by Pat Shurmur. Turner has had success with virtually every offensive coordinators gig he’s ever had. Meanwhile Chudzinski ran the Browns offense during their 10-6 season in 2007. Derek Anderson – with a similar skill set to Brandon Weeden – went to the Pro Bowl that year.

If you can’t totally rebuild an offense, you might as well get the most out of what you’ve got. This appears to be what the Browns are doing. Chudzinski will no doubt head into the market for a tight end (a focal point of his offense in Carolina and Cleveland in 2007-08) but the Browns made a killer appointment here. Cleveland hit a home run.

Assuming they don’t draft a quarterback early – and I don’t think they will following this appointment – they have a number of alternative options. There’s a lot of speculation that they’ll switch to a 3-4 defense, which would open up the possibility of drafting a pass rushing compliment to the talented Jabaal Sheard. They have enough big bodies up front, but they’re light at linebacker for a 3-4 scheme. Fortunately, this is a draft rich in 3-4 outside linebackers. They could also look at a guy like Anthony Spencer in free agency – speculation suggests he could leave Dallas following the (somewhat bizarre) appointment of Monte Kiffin as defensive coordinator and the inevitable switch to a 4-3 defense.

While the arrival of Andy Reid in Kansas City increased the chances of a quarterback being drafted first overall, these two appointments suggest the Jaguars and Browns might go in a different direction. Buffalo is a tough one to work out. Doug Marrone knows he has to do something. A lot of people want you to believe he’ll draft his Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib early, but he doesn’t warrant a grade higher than the second or third round. General Manager Buddy Nix has talked about moving on from Ryan Fitzpatrick and bizarrely even mentioned moving up in the draft to get a quarterback. What any of this means I’m not sure. But the Bills remain a candidate to go quarterback early, perhaps even after trading back into the first round.

Arizona also has to be in the market for a quarterback, while the New York Jets seemingly have to do something at the position despite Mark Sanchez’s hefty guaranteed salary. Unfortunately, I still don’t see any of these teams showing any great interest in trading for Matt Flynn. Adam Schefter reported today in his mailbag column for ESPN Insider: “Everyone keeps bringing up Flynn, but what people forget is that last offseason there were only two teams, Seattle and Miami, mildly interested in him. He did not get near the attention many thought he would. And he didn’t play this season. His value isn’t as high as many people think.”

Alabama trio going pro

Dee Milliner (CB), D.J. Fluker (T) and Eddie Lacy (RB) all confirmed today that they are turning pro. Milliner is a complete cornerback prospect and a likely top-15 pick. Fluker improved as the 2012 season progressed and had a tremendous game against Georgia in the SEC Championship. His best position might be guard at the next level, given his massive 335lbs frame is unlikely to fit at tackle in the modern NFL. Lacy is a physical, dominating running back without supreme speed but anyone looking to mimic Seattle and San Francisco and how they run the ball should consider him early on day two.

Sharrif Floyd (DT/DE, Florida) game tape vs Texas A&M

Taylor Lewan will stay at Michigan for the 2013 season

In the last 24 hours Michigan’s Taylor Lewan and Texas A&M’s Jake Matthews both confirmed they won’t be turning pro this year. Lewan’s decision is surprising given Michigan’s status as an unlikely candidate for a BCS Bowl next season, but clearly he feels this is a realistic goal citing “unfinished business”. Matthews wants to put some left tackle tape on record having played on the right during Luke Joeckel’s time with the Aggies. Both players could’ve been top-15 picks this year, but will instead turn pro in 2014. Next year’s draft is shaping up to be a good one, with the following eligible:

Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina), Marqise Lee (WR, USC), Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville), Louis Nix (DT, Notre Dame), Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers), Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE, Washington), Stephon Tuitt (DE, Notre Dame), C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama), Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan), Jake Matthews (T, Texas A&M), Cyrus Kouandjio (T, Alabama), Kyle Van Noy (DE, BYU)

Turning attentions back to this year, what impact will Lewan and Matthews’ decision have on the 2013 draft? There are multiple teams needing to find an answer at left tackle. Like quarterback, it’s considered a premium position that teams are willing to reach for to fill a need. By my count there are at least eight teams that would’ve considered tapping into a decent crop of young tackles this year. Now, there’s more likely to be higher demand at the top of round one for the best 2-3 available.

This isn’t great news for the Seahawks. They have a pro-bowl left tackle and are unlikely to target the position early. The more tackles going before they pick (between #25-32), the better chance a talented player at a different position makes it through. It seems certain that Luke Joeckel will be a top-five pick as the best player available at the position. Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) could see his stock boosted significantly following today’s announcements. Any of Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma), Justin Pugh (T, Syracuse), Kyle Long (T/G, Oregon), Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia), D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama) or Brennan Williams (T, North Carolina) could also move into first round consideration as a consequence. Such is the perceived importance of the position.

However, not all of those players necessarily deserve first round grades. In my latest mock draft, I could only find a place for Joeckel, Fisher, Johnson and Pugh in round one. Even that seems optimistic. Pugh has shown flashes of quality this year protecting Ryan Nassib but isn’t a dominating tackle, while Johnson is a pure technician who looks well coached. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Joeckel and Fisher were the only two who receive first round grades by many teams. North Carolina guard Jonathan Cooper could also receive interest as a tackle-convert given his superb athleticism and footwork. Kansas City’s Branden Albert made a similar switch after being drafted 15th overall in 2008.

Teams could be forced to look at different positions once the top 2-3 players leave the board. For example, the Chicago Bears could be a suitor for Stanford’s Zach Ertz. The Bears need an upgrade at tight end and appear ready to appoint an offensive minded Head Coach. If the value at tackle isn’t there when they pick at #20, Ertz could be the alternative choice. In this weeks mock I had Ertz going to Seattle at #26.

Another team who could show interest here? The St. Louis Rams. They are also expected to look at the tackle market, but might be out of reach picking at #16 and #22. Of course, they have the ammunition to move up. If they stay put, Ertz would make a lot of sense as a passing target for Sam Bradford.

While we’re on this subject, I found the following tweet from Daniel Jeremiah quite interesting:

I spoke to several Stanford coaches about Fleener prior to 2012 draft. Every one of them said Ertz was their top TE. I agree 100 percent.

— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) January 10, 2013

Jeremiah has some connections as a former pro-scout. Fleener was taken with the #34 overall pick last April. Ertz will go earlier than this, the big question is — how much earlier? It’s also worth noting how much interest Seattle’s coaches showed in Fleener’s pro-day last year. I suspect Ertz will be on the teams radar.

It perhaps helps the Seahawks that there are multiple interior line prospects who could also go early. Teams like the Rams who are almost rebuilding their line from scratch could also look at Chance Warmack, the aforementioned Cooper or even prospects like Wisconsin’s Travis Frederick, Alabama’s Barrett Jones or Mississippi State’s Gabe Jackson. Again, the earlier those prospects leave the board – the more chance the Seahawks have of perhaps filling one of their biggest needs in terms of the pass rush, receiver or linebacker.

One player I’m struggling to work out is SMU’s Margus Hunt. Avid college football fans will know about him – for those who don’t, he’s a 6-8 discuss thrower from Estonia. He came to the United States to train at SMU and work with athletics coach Dave Wollman. By the time he arrived at the school it’d dropped the track and field programme. He still wanted to work with Wollman and to cut a long story short – a football scholarship would’ve enabled him to stick around. He tried out for the team and got the required scholarship.

After a period spent learning the game from scratch he’s gone on to break SMU’s record for blocked kicks, although he didn’t really start having a consistent impact on games until this season. He saw more consistent game time in 2012 and recorded eight sacks. I’ve included tape of his performance in the recent Hawaii Bowl against Fresno State below. As you can see, he has some talent.

He’s also still relatively new to football, he’ll be 26 next June and he hasn’t quite dominated like the Fresno State game too often. At that age, you can’t afford to wait a year or two coaching him up. He has to have an impact quickly. I’m struggling to work out if he’s a potential first rounder due to upside or if he’s simply too old and too good to be true.

Bruce Irvin turned 25 during his rookie season and still earned a top-15 selection due to his college production and explosive speed. Hunt won’t run a 4.4 at the combine, but at 6-8 and 275lbs he won’t necessarily need to. A time in the 4.6 range will be impressive enough at that size. Part of me wonders whether a former discuss thrower from Estonia with hardly any football experience is just the kind of pick Pete Carroll and John Schneider are likely to make.

From the limited tape that’s out there, he has lined up inside at tackle for some snaps. He’s not a full time interior pass rusher, but I just wonder if he could be a possible option for the Jason Jones role. It’ll be interesting to see if the Seahawks go for a more natural three-technique next year to replace Alan Branch (who still deserves a new contract in my opinion). If they don’t – and I wouldn’t say it’s guaranteed given their penchant for size the last three seasons – then they have to find other ways to create more pressure. Jones is no shoe-in to re-sign. Margus Hunt could act as that nickel interior rusher (although this doesn’t address the teams biggest issue – a lack of pressure rushing four in the base defense).

Of course acting in the Jones role will limit his snaps and makes a first or second round grade harder to accept, even for the quirky Seahawks. A team considering Hunt as an orthodox defensive end or five technique is much more likely to be willing to carry that grade. He’s not a LEO. He’ll never be a LEO. That may push his value into the middle rounds within Seattle’s front office, by which he might be long gone. But there’s just something about Hunt that is obscure enough and intriguing enough to catch the attention of this team. Even if he can only act as a specialist.