The whole point of doing these mock drafts is to create discussion points. I’m not trying to project the draft in December. That would be ridiculous. Please remember this. Please.

– I watched some of Kansas City’s game against Carolina on Sunday. As daft as it sounds for a team currently on pace for the #1 pick, they aren’t terrible. Far from it in fact. The offensive line is competitive. They have some X-factor weapons on offense. They have some key players on defense. They just don’t have a quarterback. And while the 2013 group doesn’t contain an Andrew Luck, they can still find a legitimate starter for the foreseeable future. So if KC picks first overall, they just need to identify who they prefer from Matt Barkley, Geno Smith and Tyler Wilson. The AFC West is weak enough for a bounce back year in 2013 if they can upgrade at quarterback. This has been an underwhelming year for Barkley, but how much of that is on Lane Kiffin?

– Markus Wheaton and DeAndre Hopkins are both listed in round one this week. Why? Because they’re both worthy of round one grades. Simple. While a lot of people want to concentrate on Keenan Allen (not included in the first two rounds here) and Justin Hunter (second round projection) I think Wheaton and Hopkins are the two players most likely to succeed from this receiver class. The only receiver who goes higher is Brandon Coleman. He has a much higher ceiling, but he’s likely to need a redshirt year in the NFL to max out his potential. Coleman has much more upside, but isn’t quite as polished in only his second year of college football.

– I have the Seahawks taking Kansas State linebacker Arthur Brown. Pete Carroll paid a lot of attention to Brown during his USC days and he’s a sound option to replace Leroy Hill at the WILL position. The Seahawks like to do things their own way and think outside of the box. Brown isn’t an obvious first round pick within the media, but he is a very good football player. He’s intense, he’s got a nose for the ball. He glides from sideline to sideline and he makes plays. He hasn’t shown a great deal of pass rush at Kansas State, but the Seahawks aren’t using the linebackers that much to blitz and are generally relying on a four man rush. You can see tape of Brown’s performance against Miami at the top of this piece.

– In round two Seattle gets Purdue’s Kawann Short. Although I believe finding a three-technique upgrade for Alan Branch is probably Seattle’s greatest need, I’m not totally convinced it’s a position they’ll target in round one. They may even go after Randy Starks or Sedrick Ellis in free agency. Likewise, I’m not totally convinced they’ll consider the receivers in round one either. Although I wanted to put Wheaton or Hopkins at #22, John Schneider is used to the Green Bay way of doing things. The Packers have enjoyed great success finding receivers in round two or beyond. Expect this team to go searching for value after the first round, just like they did with Golden Tate. And if Wheaton or Hopkins last that far, the Seahawks should run to the podium. The recent production by Golden Tate and Sidney Rice is also making this less of a priority.

Enjoy.

First round

	#1 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) The Chiefs need a quarterback. They don’t have a terrible roster. And even if the value isn’t quite there, just solve this issue indefinitely.

	#2 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) The Jaguars need a pass rusher and Werner could steadily move up the boards after a 13.5 sack season.

	#3 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) The Raiders need to start drafting good football players. This will be a long rebuild.

	#4 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M) Philly’s offensive line is, well, ‘offensive’. This is the starting point for a new era.

	#5 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) The more I watch of Sheldon Richardson, the more I’m reminded of Darnell Dockett.

	#6 Jake Mathews (T, Texas A&M) Although he’s playing at right tackle for the Aggies, he’s good enough to move across and play the blind side.

	#7 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M) He’s having a great year and looks the part of a NFL rusher. He has 12.5 sacks in the SEC. That isn’t easy.

	#8 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) The complete cornerback. Milliner is vastly underrated.

	#9 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) All the messing around at quarterback this year cannot happen again.

	#10 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon) He could go even higher than this if he explodes at the combine.

	#11 Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas) He looks like the kind of quarterback Chan Gailey would like to draft. He could be the best quarterback to enter the league in 2013.

	#12 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) Plenty of upside but he’s let down by his consistency. Not a great pass rusher… yet.

	#13 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) A top-10 level talent who dominates every week for the Crimson Tide.

	#14 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers) Sensational receiver who could be the next Megatron.

	#15 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford) Not just a dynamic pass catcher, he’s also a top-end run blocker.

	#16 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina) He’s just as good as Chance Warmack, if not better. He won’t last too long.

	#17 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) The Rams need a left tackle and Fisher looks the part.

	#18 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) Perhaps not quite as good as some people want you to believe, but he’ll be a terror lined up across from DeMarcus Ware.

	#19 Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU) Another player who could shoot up the board with a great combine.

	#20 Alec Ogeltree (LB, Georgia) This would be a complete steal. He could have more upside than anyone else in the draft.

	#21 Matt Elam (S, Florida) Top talent who lasts this long only due to a lack of need. Elam’s a true playmaker in the secondary.

	#22 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State) Just a good football player. The Seahawks like to do things differently. Pete Carroll liked this guy during his USC/recruiting days.

	#23 Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan) The next best tackle and the Giants need to fill this position long term.

	#24 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia) The ideal building block for a team looking to implement a 3-4 defense.

	#25 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee) Although he’s playing guard at Tennessee, he has history at tackle and is good enough to move outside again.

	#26 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama) His best position could be the five technique in a 3-4 defense.

	#27 John Simon (DE, Ohio State) Just a really solid, blue-collar pass rusher.

	#28 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia) Baltimore are good enough to take a chance on Jones, whose spinal stenosis issue will put off some teams.

	#29 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina) Terrific pass rushing defensive tackle.

	#30 Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State) A smart team will draft this guy in round one. He’s the second coming of Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace.

	#31 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson) Like Wheaton, just an incredibly underrated player.

	#32 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia) When you have a roster like Atlanta’s, why not go for an X-factor playmaker?

Second round

#33 Jacksonville – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#34 Kansas City – C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama)
#35 Philadelphia – Barrett Jones (C, Alabama)
#36 Carolina – Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
#37 Cincinnati – Jonathan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#38 Tennessee – Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
#39 Arizona – Justin Pugh (T, Syracuse)
#40 Detroit – Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio State)
#41 San Diego – Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia)
#42 Miami – Brennan Williams (T, North Carolina)
#43 Buffalo – New York Jets – Aaron Murray (QB, Georgia)
#44 Buffalo – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#45 St. Louis – Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
#46 Washington – Shawn Williams (S, Georgia)
#47 Dallas – Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#48 Minnesota – Bennie Logan (DT, LSU)
#49 Tampa Bay – Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
#50 Cincinnati – Le’Veon Bell (RB, Michigan State)
#51 Seattle – Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
#52 New York Giants – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#53 Pittsburgh – Stepfan Taylor (RB, Stanford)
#54 Miami – Corey Lemonier (DE, Alabama)
#55 Green Bay – Montee Ball (RB, Wisconsin)
#56 Chicago – D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
#57 Baltimore – Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
#58 Denver – Giovani Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#59 San Francisco – Jordan Poyer (CB, Oregon State)
#60 New England – Alex Okafor (DE, Texas)
#61 Atlanta – Jonathan Franklin (RB, UCLA)
#62 Houston – Levine Toilolo (TE, Stanford)

Oregon State’s Markus Wheaton deserves a high grade

There are players out there that get a lot of hype. There are better players who fly under the radar. Markus Wheaton falls into the second category.

It’s not hard to work out why he doesn’t get much attention. ESPN lists him at 6-1 and 182lbs – but Scouts Inc has him down at just 5-11. He plays for a solid Oregon State programme that doesn’t generate many national headlines. He’s a senior receiver in an era where top wide outs are leaving for the NFL as redshirt sophomore’s. None of that blows you away. Put on the tape, and you instantly see why this guy deserves more hype.

I’m sure you’re all aware of De’Anthony Thomas at Oregon. Want to know who runs faster than De’Anthony Thomas? Markus Wheaton.

Back in May both players competed in the 100 metres race at the Oregon Twilight track and field meet. Washington’s Ryan Hamilton finished first with a time of 10.51 seconds. Wheaton was second in 10.58, with Thomas third at 10.65. Granted it was ‘Black Mamba’s’ debut race and Wheaton is a senior, but a wins a win.

The speed flashes up on tape – see the video above for Wheaton’s performance against Arizona State this year. Yet it’s not the pure speed that intrigues me the most. It’s the maturity, the understanding he shows running routes and his willingness to try and make blocks downfield. Receivers get a reputation for being the diva’s of football – and for the most part that reputation is justified. Wheaton is the anti-diva. He’s humble. He’s a team player. And he makes plays.

This year he registered 1323 total yards and 13 touchdowns. Against UCLA, Stanford and Oregon – his three toughest match-ups this year – he managed 24 catches, 348 yards and two touchdowns. The only team to shut him down this season? Washington. The Huskies gave up just two catches for 25 yards (NOTE – Wheaton left the game early after a vicious helmet-to-helmet hit). Wheaton is three yards away from being listed among the top-ten receivers for yardage in college football. Another underrated receiver – DeAndre Hopkins at Clemson – is ranked at #9.

Want a comparison for Wheaton? How about Mike Wallace at Pittsburgh. They share similar physical attributes, they’re both capable of getting downfield and making plays. If you don’t want to pay a ton of money on the open market (if Wallace makes free agency next March), then consider drafting Wheaton instead. They’re very similar players. Wallace was a third round pick in 2009 – but undoubtedly would be a top-32 selection in a re-draft. Wheaton deserves to have a late fist or early second round grade too.

So what does he do well?

The first thing that stands out is the speed. He can get downfield and make plays, but given he’s not the biggest receiver he’s better working across the middle and making YAC. See the play in the video above at 0:43 where he runs a crisp route inside, makes the grab in traffic and just sprints away from the defense for a touchdown. He’s going to score cheap points at the next level simply due to his ability working in space.

You can use Wheaton in trick plays – as noted by the end around at 0:12. He finds the cut back lane and exploits it – exploding through the space and breaking off a big gain. There’s no reason why you couldn’t use him on a jet sweep, wide receiver screen or crossing pattern to get the ball in his hands and exploit that X-factor ability.

Check out the big running play at 1:25. Who’s sprinting downfield to make sure the runner finds the end zone? Markus Wheaton. The touchdown at 2:36 flashes his understanding of the offense and the route he needs to run. He’s on the same page as the quarterback, selling the route to the cornerback and then checking to grab the back-shoulder throw. Textbook completion for a score. At 3:34 he would’ve had another touchdown with a better throw. Wheaton beats his guy for speed and gets downfield with three yards of separation. The quarterback leads him to the sideline and he catches it – but a throw in front of the receiver and it’s a simple score.

Someone is going to draft this guy in the late first round or early second round. I think he deserves to be a top-32 grade and he’s probably the best 2013 eligible receiver if Brandon Coleman chooses to stay at Rutgers. Like I said, Mike Wallace type ability here. While people still wonder if Keenan Allen or Justin Hunter will crack the first round, keep an eye on this guy. A smart team will draft him early.

Seattle’s plans at quarterback ‘blown up’ by Russell Wilson?

The Seahawks have their quarterback of the future and his name is Russell Wilson. Any doubt was permanently removed as he engineered two long touchdown drives in Soldier Field on Sunday.

It’s not easy being a rookie quarterback. You have to act like a veteran and attempt to lead the team. Yet the more experienced and wealthier players in the locker room look back at you and think, “Who is this guy?” The way you win round the team and show you belong? Games like Sunday.

It’s not even a year since John Schneider was pleading for patience. He insisted the team wouldn’t panic in their search for a capable starting quarterback. They would bide their time. I’m not convinced he believed Seattle would’ve solved this issue by the end of 2012. Here’s my theory. Make of it what you will.

I suspect the Seahawks intended to go big on the quarterback position in 2013. They decided early in the process that the first round of the 2012 draft would be used to get a pass rusher – another key need. With three quarterbacks expected to go in the top ten last April, this would be a difficult problem for the Seahawks to solve. They weren’t going to chase the situation. Not yet, anyway.

Still, they had to do something. Tarvaris Jackson struggled as the starter and at the very least needed some healthy competition. When free agency opened, Seattle’s initial enquiry went to Chad Henne and a visit was schedule. He went to Jacksonville first and decided that was the right move to make. He stayed in Florida after starting his NFL career in Miami. Seattle – without many alternative options – arranged a visit with Matt Flynn.

At the time Flynn’s market was ice-cold. Touted as a prize asset following his big performance in relief of Aaron Rodgers, nobody picked up the phone until the Seahawks made their move several days into free agency. The interest didn’t really create a market. Miami arranged a visit but appeared lukewarm in their pursuit. And that was it. Flynn signed for the Seahawks on a deal worth $10m guaranteed.

I believe Schneider convinced Pete Carroll that Flynn could upgrade the position and handle things for at least a year. He could manage the situation. He could help the team continue it’s upward trend until they were ready to find that one player who could truly ’tilt the field’.

While they were unlikely to grab that guy in the first round of the 2012 draft, it didn’t stop them adding to the competition later on. Schneider targeted Russell Wilson specifically and Carroll bought into the concept and saw past the conventional wisdom that screamed a 5-10 quarterback couldn’t work. Wilson became the third part of this equation. Had another team come in for the Wisconsin quarterback before Seattle’s third round pick, I think they would’ve still targeted the position in rounds three or four. Kirk Cousins seems like a probable alternative.

The Seahawks went into the summer with three possible starting quarterbacks on their roster plus Josh Portis. Yet at the back of their planning, I still think they expected to have to wait to solve this issue in 2013. It would take Flynn, Jackson or Wilson to really blow the doors off to change that. And against the odds, Wilson has done it.

It’s not hard to think about who the Seahawks may have targeted in the 2013 draft. Pete Carroll speaks about Matt Barkley in the same way he talks about Wilson. In his Monday press conference this week, he was asked whether he’d worked with any other quarterbacks who had shown similar qualities to his current rookie starter. His answer?

“Matt Barkley was a guy… I talk about him a lot… but he was a guy that impressed me that was very, very comfortable with the position. Let me leave that for now.”

Carroll went on to talk about Wilson’s influence so far, checking his work ethic, relationship with his team mates and performance. He made a final reference saying he wasn’t totally surprised with Wilson’s success because he’d seen it happen with Barkley at USC. And I sensed, somewhere in the, “Let me leave that for now” was a tinge of disappointment. The realisation that any chance of working with Barkley has gone. Not that he’s likely to complain about that any time soon. As he often states, Wilson is the real deal.

Hey – maybe I’m reading too much into it. That was my reaction, though. And it fed my hunch that Carroll was probably zoned in on getting ‘his guy’ because he’d probably need ‘his guy’ by year four.

The relatively unexpected success in finding a starting quarterback in round three has probably put this regime ahead of schedule. Any expectations they had of drafting Barkley (or any other quarterback in round one next April) has been swept aside. Instead of looking for what many would consider the final piece of the puzzle – he’s already on the roster. He’s twelve games into his pro-career. By next year, he won’t have the rookie learning curve. The front office can target another area of the team for improvement in the early rounds of the draft.

If this theory has even a semblance of legitimacy, it could be the best failed plan in the history of the Seattle Seahawks. The third round guy who was too short for the NFL has solved the teams greatest need.

There are two reasons why I think Sheldon Richardson could end up being Seattle’s ideal 2013 draft pick. Firstly, the team needs to find a way to create more pressure using its base defense. The second reason was all down to something Pete Carroll said in one of his press conferences last week.

Red Bryant was a major doubt for the Chicago Bears game due to injury. When asked who would replace Bryant at defensive end, Carroll answered Alan Branch. Greg Scruggs would fill in at three technique.

Bryant is 323lbs and Branch is listed at 325lbs. I found it pretty fascinating that Carroll was so determined to keep size at that position. He could’ve started Scruggs or Jason Jones at defensive end – with both seemingly capable of acting as a more orthodox five-technique. Instead he wanted to move an interior lineman to the outside at the expense of giving up 50lbs at tackle.

The role of Bryant has become pretty integral to this team. While some fans have questioned his impact this year, especially in light of the inconsistent pressure up front, there’s no doubt that Carroll intends to stick with this plan. He wants Bryant outside for a reason (we’ll come on to that in a moment). As a result, he’s also prepared to have a pretty unbalanced pass rush when using the base defense.

We discussed last week how important it was for Seattle to find more pressure within this scheme. Carroll and Gus Bradley are only rushing four most of the time. They aren’t blitzing all that much. It seems to me that they want to max out the potential for turnovers by playing tight against the run on early downs and putting teams into 3rd and long situations. And when they’re in third and long, they turn to speed. Bruce Irvin and Jason Jones join Chris Clemons for the ‘money down’. You can play nickel, you can create a situation where the chances of a turnover are increased. Quick pressure, force the mistake and have enough people in coverage to capitalise. It makes a lot of sense.

However – when teams are prepared to pass on early downs, quarterbacks are having a lot of time in the pocket. In the base defense, the line consists of Bryant, Branch, Clemons and Brandon Mebane. That’s a lot of size, but also a total reliance on Clemons for pressure. If you’re keeping Bryant in the line-up – and Pete Carroll is keeping Bryant in the line-up – the only place you can upgrade to create more pressure is defensive tackle.

The 4-3 under defense that Carroll is using lends a lot of weight to the philosophy created by Monte Kiffin. You shift the tackles away from the heart and strength of the offensive line, thus making it very difficult to double team the three-technique tackle. The nose tackle (Brandon Mebane) plays off the shoulder of the center. That, theoretically, creates a situation where the three technique and the LEO (Chris Clemons) are in 1vs1 situations with the left guard and left tackle. And that’s where the team is going to have success.

It does leave you light on one side of the line, which is why I think they like Red Bryant so much. He’s a space eater, he draws attention. And with the rest of the line favouring one side, there’s always the possibility you become easy to run against. Bryant takes away that advantage with his size. So while we can sit here and complain about a lack of pass-rush, Bryant is actually doing his job by simply stopping this team getting gashed consistently. He makes everything else tick. And his role will increase in importance the moment Seattle actually has a three technique who creates pressure.

Alan Branch isn’t a terrible defensive tackle. He’s just not a pass rusher. He’s playing 20-30lbs heavier than a prototypical three-technique and he doesn’t get a lot of penetration. Seattle should try and retain Branch as a useful rotational piece and a potential backup if Bryant or Mebane goes down. But really, he has to be upgraded on the base defense for this unit to maximise its potential. The Seahawks need a 290-300lbs three technique who won’t give up the run advantage they get with Branch, but can also take advantage of the scheme. As soon as you get someone collapsing the pocket inside, that’s when you’ll see the best of this defense.

Missouri’s Sheldon Richardson fits the bill to a tee.

I’ve seen him listed between 6-2 and 6-4 and anywhere between 290-295lbs. He has quite a solid, compact frame and ticks all of the boxes you’d look for from an interior rusher. He’s not a one trick pony and will mix up his speed and bull rushes. He has an explosive first step and he’s the most competitive defensive tackle I’ve seen since Ndamukong Suh. How many defensive tackles go for an interior pass rush, see the ball thrown to the sideline and then go after the receiver to try and make a play? Richardson is a tremendous athlete with an unmatched motor. He’s sparky, he wants to win and he gets in your face. That’ll rub some coaches and GM’s up the wrong way, but that’s exactly how you need to be to play this position.

Given the long list of positives, how is there any chance he falls anywhere close to Seattle’s pick? There are some perceived ‘downsides’. He’s pretty outspoken. He labelled Georgia’s style of play as ‘old man football’ in a press conference before the season opener. Georgia won handsomely. He talked trash about Alabama too, before Missouri were well beaten by the dominating Crimson Tide. Some GM’s won’t like that. It’s worth noting, Richardson backed up his words on both occasions. He played very well in both games. Perhaps he just needs a supporting cast good enough to back up his chatter?

There are other issues. He was suspended for a game this year for ‘unspecified reasons’, although Edward Aschoff at ESPN reported the following:

Sources close to the program told ESPN.com that Richardson was suspended because he missed a class multiple times and refused to go through the punishment given to him for missing the class.

He’s a former JUCO transfer and also missed spring practice and some of summer camp in 2011 while dealing with the NCAA on eligibility issues. Scouts INC also wrote the following in their report on Richardson: “Mental capacity and maturity level are being closely investigated by NFL scouts.”

Basically, Tim Ruskell probably wouldn’t draft this guy. Other active GM’s in this league might share that opinion. Richardson has the talent to be a top-ten pick, but could he drift into the teens or even the early 20’s due to character red flags? The depth at defensive tackle won’t work in his favor if concerns linger. Any team looking at the position in the top-20 will have multiple options. Even so, it’ll still be a big win for the Seahawks if he does make it to their pick, which appears likely to be in the second half of round one given the current 7-5 record.

And if you’re wondering just how well he fits a defense heavily influenced by Monte Kiffin, consider that he originally committed to USC in 2010. He failed to qualify at Missouri academically and spent two summers at the College of Sequoias in California. It’s during that time he decided to play for the Trojans. The reason? According to reports, he believed Kiffin’s guidance and the system at Southern Cal would best prepare him for the NFL. Eventually he reneged on that decision and chose Missouri. However, having played JUCO football in the state Pete Carroll coached and as a former 5-star recruit, he’s probably a player Seattle’s Head Coach has the inside track on. And if Carroll wants any further advice, I’m sure he’ll be on the phone to Monte Kiffin – who many are touting for a role with the Seahawks following his resignation at USC.

I’ve posted tape of Richardson versus Florida at the top of this piece. For three other games, click on this article and scroll to the bottom.

Check out the explosion off the snap at 2:10 in the video above. That’s elite anticipation and the kind of speed and burst the Seahawks are lacking at tackle. He’s into the backfield before his blocker – Chaz Green – has got out of his stance. Green, if you’re wondering, is a player considered by many to have future first round potential as an offensive tackle. Richardson hits the running back for a huge loss.

At the 2:50 mark, he blocks a field goal – getting a great push off the snap and sticking out an arm to deflect the kick. You can see a good example of his closing speed at 3:23, when he loops back around then initiates contact with a lineman and appears to be stopped. However, he disengages and still manages to hit the quarterback on a diving tackle to force an incomplete pass. Wondering how difficult Florida found it to stop Richardson in this game? Check out the ‘tackle’ by the interior lineman at 5:55 that drew a holding call. And if you want evidence of his work rate and willingness to look for the ball carrier, check his hussle at 6:53 to get the ball carrier down after two Missouri missed tackles.

Getting a player like Richardson in the line-up would enable the Seahawks to create more pressure on early downs, it’d help the LEO become more effective and the increased pass rush would likely increase the number of sacks and turnovers. This is by far the teams biggest need going into the off-season this year. Get a player like Richardson, and this team takes the next step on defense.

Of course, there are always alternatives. This is a deep class for defensive tackles as I mentioned. Plus I just have a hunch the Seahawks will monitor Randy Starks’ situation in Miami. The Dolphins might have to use the franchise tag on Jake Long, making it harder to keep Starks on the roster. He wouldn’t be cheap, but I can’t think of a more precious free agent signing for this team if he hits the market. Addressing this need pre-draft would allow the Seahawks to potentially concentrate on other areas such as linebacker, cornerback, wide receiver, tight end or the offensive line.

Brandon Coleman is 6-6 and runs away from defensive backs

The Seahawks passing game has come a long way in recent weeks. Russell Wilson looks increasingly comfortable, Sidney Rice and Golden Tate are making plays and the tight ends are getting more involved too. However, the team is still ranked 31st in the NFL for yards per game. Is that an issue?

In many ways, absolutely not. Pete Carroll’s vision for the offense is based around a strong running game and by nature the Seahawks are not going to be throwing as much as other teams. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson – however good he’s looked recently – is still a rookie. The team is unlikely to burden him with too much of a workload. He’s averaging 25 throws a game and that seems about right for this offense. They have a good thing going at the moment with Wilson – and more throws won’t necessarily mean even more success. It could just as easily have a detrimental effect.

The Chicago Bears, surprisingly, are the one team in the NFL averaging less receiving yards per game than the Seahawks. That’s a team with Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. They also sport an 8-3 record. The teams averaging the most yardage are the Detroit Lions (4-7) the Dallas Cowboys (5-6) and the New Orleans Saints (5-7). The Oakland Raiders are ranked eighth in the league for passing yards. Do we need to continue? Clearly receiving yards per game is a pretty irrelevant statistic when it comes to winning games.

In order to become a contender, the Seahawks need to find consistency. They have a good defense, a good offense and they can make plays on special teams. When all three units come together (vs New England, Dallas, New York), the results have been very promising. Too often, however, an entire unit has struggled and undermined the efforts of the others. Against Arizona and St. Louis, the offense never really got going and Seattle lost two very winnable games. The defense had their turn against Detroit and Miami, playing poorly in two last second defeats.

We’re unlikely to see that consistency emerge this season. You can’t rule it out – the New York Giants found it late last year and made a 9-7 record into a Super Bowl-winning season. The chances are this is a team that will continue to grow, be a bit frustrating for another year or two and like Atlanta or Houston, eventually emerge into a formidable outfit. Let’s not forget Seattle sports one of the youngest rosters in the NFL, with first or second year pro’s at many key positions.

Within that year or two, they’re going to have the opportunity to keep adding talent. And this is where we come back to the receiver situation. We’ve established the Seahawks don’t necessarily need to significantly improve their passing yards per game average, but are they still lacking that game changing receiver?

Matt Schaub (#13) and Andy Dalton (#15) are safely in the middle of the pack for passing attempts among starting quarterbacks. Yet the players they’re throwing to most – Andre Johnson (#3) and A.J. Green (#5) – are ranked much higher for production. Remember Jay Cutler and that league worst passing offense in terms of production? Cutler ranks #26 in the league for attempts (one place above Russell Wilson at #27) and yet Brandon Marshall is #6 in the NFL for receiving yards. Josh Freeman is #19 for attempts, Vincent Jackson is #9 for yardage. Seattle’s most productive receiver – Sidney Rice – is currently ranked #54 in the league for yardage. Golden Tate is at #80. Both players are behind Brandon LaFell, Donny Avery, Jeremy Kerley and Nate Washington.

It’d be unfair to be overly critical of Rice or Tate as both are doing fine jobs for Seattle in recent weeks. They’ve both been responsible for key victories. But is this an offense that lacks that one dynamic target? Someone who can feature alongside Rice and Tate and at least register enough yardage to overtake Greg Olsen for production? Someone who can work their way into becoming one of the most threatening pass-catchers in the league? The Seahawks might not need a hugely productive passing game overall to win, but they may need a better #1 target for Wilson. Of the top 15 receivers in the NFL for production, 12 feature on teams with at least a 7-4 record.

There’s likely to be a good crop of receivers available in next years draft. Markus Wheaton, Robert Woods and DeAndre Hopkins are all underrated due to a lack of elite size. Cordarrelle Patterson is a home-run hitter with game changing abilities. There are other players, such as Justin Hunter, who failed to live up to expectations in college but maintain an attractive skill set. There are tight ends like Tyler Eifert and Gavin Escobar who will probably be available after the first round.

However, the two players I’d focus on when looking for a dynamic passing threat are two players we’ve discussed already on this blog – Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers) and Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford).

Coleman would be a work in progress and wouldn’t guarantee an early return if you draft him in round one. He plays like a redshirt freshman featuring in an offense that likes to run the ball as a priority. It’s easy to overvalue players based on college production – not every player is fortunate enough to feature in an extreme spread, air-raid offense. A.J. Green started three years at Georgia and never had a 1000 yard season. Justin Blackmon had 1782 yards in 2010 alone. In two years at Rutgers, Coleman has just 56 receptions for 1215 yards. More importantly though, he has 16 touchdowns – including ten this year.

He remains relatively inexperienced and he may hit a steep learning curve in the NFL. He’s going to have to learn to run a lot of different routes, he won’t be able to rely as much on pure size and reach (he’s 6-6 and 225lbs). However, Coleman is the most physically impressive receiver you’ll see not named Calvin Johnson.

You want to know what he’s capable of? If you missed Rutgers’ game against Louisville last night, check out this 85 yard touchdown on the Scarlet Knights’ first offense snap of the night. He makes a difficult grab between two defensive backs, turns up field and out-runs the defense. He’s sprinting away from cornerbacks at 6-6 and 225lbs. At that size he’s naturally going to be a threat in the red zone and you’re going to be able to ‘pull a Matt Stafford’ by throwing passes only Coleman has any chance of completing. Yet he has that extra dimension of being a tremendous open field runner and YAC specialist despite the height. He’s a rare specimen.

It’s not clear whether he intends to declare for the draft or not at this stage, but he is eligible and would clearly be the best receiver among the 2013 class. He’s a player whose best football will come in the NFL. He has the opportunity to be a superstar. For more information and game tape, see this piece I wrote on Coleman back in October.

Ertz is a very different player entirely. He has similar height (6-6, 252lbs) but would play tight end at the next level with a lot of blocking responsibility. While it might not seem like an obvious direction for a team looking for a difference making receiver, it’s worth noting how crucial the tight end position is becoming in the league. Of the top-40 receivers for yardage right now, six are tight ends. Everyone has seen the impact of Rob Gronkowski (6-6, 265lbs) and Jimmy Graham (6-7, 265lbs). The great thing about Ertz is he’s over 10lbs lighter and yet still run blocks better than both players did entering the league.

It’s rare to see such a strong blocking tight end playing with Ertz’s frame. Stanford are able to keep him at the line for any play call – run or pass – and it completely opens up their playbook. Ertz leads the Cardinal for receiving yards with 818 from 63 receptions – and yet he plays an equally crucial role blocking for the vastly underrated Stepfan Taylor (Seattle should be all over that guy, even if running back isn’t a need). Crucially in terms of his NFL stock, Ertz is capable of lining up as a pure receiver or in the slot. The entire NFL is looking for a tight end with Ertz’s skill set. He could be the next great, productive tight end in the league.

With Seattle running the ball as much as they do and trying to exploit the play action passing game, Ertz could become Russell Wilson’s best friend. And while it might not lead to the kind of partnership that dominates the highlight reels, there’s no reason why Ertz couldn’t come in and instantly become a productive pass catcher and blocker. He looks NFL ready, more so than another former Cardinal tight end Coby Fleener. The Seahawks essentially could use Ertz and Zach Miller in the same way Stanford uses Ertz and Levine Toilolo – providing a big boost to the running game and developing the play action game they like to utilise so much.

And as always – the most important thing is touchdowns rather than yardage. Like Coleman, Ertz excels in this area with 15 career scores.

Both players will have to declare for the draft to gain consideration for 2013. Both players may leave the board within the top-15 picks if they do turn pro. But if the Seahawks are looking for another dynamic receiving option, these two players will probably be near the top of the list. Along with the top defensive tackles (Sheldon Richardson, Star Lotulelei, Sylvester Williams) and the top linebackers (Alec Ogletree, C.J. Mosley) – the likes of Coleman and Ertz could be near the top of Seattle’s draft board next April.

Note – Sheldon Richardson turning pro

No surprises that Missouri defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson announced today he will enter the 2013 draft. He’s had a terrific year and only some lingering character concerns will keep him out of the top-15 picks. He’d be an ideal fit for the three-technique in Seattle and he’s one to focus on during the draft process. Expect a number of non-Bowl eligible prospects to announce their intentions now that we’re getting into December. And also keep an eye on the top underclassmen who are competing in the bowls. They’re always liable to reveal their intentions in post-game press conferences.

Below I’ve included Richardson’s tape vs Alabama, South Carolina and Georgia:

You’ll probably hear a lot about Sharrif Floyd over the next few months. He’s got the kind of back-story the media loves to wax lyrical over. You’ll probably feel like you know the guy personally by April. He’s a former 5-star recruit and top rated defensive tackle, who had to fight for everything he’s achieved. Floyd had a difficult upbringing, as noted by the AP:

Floyd grew up poor and has recounted the time when he wore the same clothes to elementary school every day for months at a time. His biological father died when he was 3 years old, and the man he thought was his father over the next 12 years “didn’t treat me right growing up,” he said. Floyd left home at 15, moved in with grandmother and then bounced around from coaches to friends to other relatives. Muschamp said Floyd still sends his grandmother part of his monthly Pell Grant money.

This is a player who grew up without parents, had to deal with severe financial difficulties and lived with whoever would take him in. As the AP states, he was living with his grandmother for a time – but he also lived with his guidance councillor and his high school coach. Anywhere that provided shelter. And in a few months time, he could be a first or second round NFL draft pick.

The mark of the man is summed up in the following story. Before he began his career with the Gators, he was invited to attend the annual U.S. Army All-American Combine for talented high school students. One problem – he couldn’t afford the trip to San Antonio Texas where the game was taking place (he was brought up in Philadelphia). To raise the cash he cooked brownies with the help of special-education students and sold them for several weeks at his school. He raised enough cash, made it to San Antonio and earned first-team all-combine honours when he got there. By the time he was ready to think about college, he was getting offers from all the big schools – Ohio State, North Carolina, Miami, USC, Florida and Penn State to name a few.

It’s safe to assume Pete Carroll knows about Floyd. He left USC to move to Seattle days before Floyd committed to Florida. We know Carroll likes to go back in for ‘the one who got away’ (Bruce Irvin turned down the chance to join USC in favour of West Virginia). So he’s one to monitor during the post-season.

Unfortunately the story doesn’t end with hardship merely leading into college. He was forced to sit out two games in 2011 after receiving what the NCAA describes as ‘impermissible benefits’. Having caught almost no breaks in his life previously, Floyd was finally helped out by a wealthy Philadelphia businessman named Kevin Lahn. Here’s the issue as the NCAA reported:

Receiving $2,500 cash over several months from an individual not associated with the university. Floyd used the money for living expenses, transportation and other expenses. In addition, he received impermissible benefits prior to enrollment, including transportation and lodging related to unofficial visits to several institutions.

This may sound familiar to the Michael Oher story, made famous by a (in my opinion) lousy film from which Sandra Bullock somehow won an Oscar. The difference here is – Oher’s adopted parents had ties to Ole Miss and the NCAA rightly investigated to see if his adoption and care had any significant impact on his decision to attend the school. They had to check to see if he’d basically been recruited by two Ole Miss boosters willing to sacrifice a bedroom for a left tackle. As far as I’m aware, Kevin Lahn has no connection to the Gators. Reports suggest he was a former booster at South Carolina, but apparently they disassociated themselves from Lahn after the NCAA ruling. For more information on the case, read this piece from the Orlando Sentinel.

The whole thing, to me, looks like a kid who finally got a break – and was then punished for getting that break. He’s since been adopted by the Lahn’s and will go on to become a pro-football player. It’ll be hard earned when he gets to the NFL.

So what about his play? He features both inside at tackle and also plays the edge too. He’s quite effective lining up as a five-technique and that might prove to be his best position going forward. He’s improved as a pass rusher this year, finding ways to get into the backfield and flashing a little more burst. Last season he looked a bit slow off the mark and if he’s going to play three-technique in the NFL, he needs to work on exploding off the snap and getting that leverage early. This year there’s some improvement – but for such a talented athlete it’s an area he could be better.

He gets too high when initiating contact and he gets pushed back because of poor technique. Look at the video above at the 2:03 mark. He tries to move left and dip inside to confuse the offensive line. However – the right guard notices this quickly and gets under his pad level quickly with a jolt and just stones Floyd on the spot. He can’t disengage. If he bends his knees and gets the hands in low, he maybe gets the lineman off balance or at least pushes him back. Instead, he’s out of the play. When you dip inside you better have an impact. It basically leaves one undersized defensive end against a guard and left tackle on the right hand side of the line. Not surprising, the DE is on the turf pretty quickly and E.J. Manuel breaks contain and exploits the space to his left.

Sometimes it doesn’t matter that he goes high. At 5:30 he’s playing the edge and just flat out beats the left tackle with an initial punch and then a burst round the edge to get to Manuel. Again, the technique isn’t great here. But he’s just too good. He’s too strong and too fast for the FSU left tackle. It’s a great play and flashes why he could make a better five technique than a three. If he can be this disruptive at the five, it’s going to make life very easy for some of the better 3-4 OLB’s in the league.

That’s not to say that he couldn’t play inside. Clearly he’s an athletic player for his size (approximately 300lbs) and there are times when he throws a little sidestep move to avoid a block and he looks the part of a pro-inside penetrator.

Against the run he’s OK. Again the technique is an issue because he consistently goes too high, but he also lacks a lot of the pure power at the point of attack you see with Star Lotulelei and Sylvester Williams. It’s worth noting that he’s quite a bit lighter than both of those players and could still add muscle to become a better run stopper. The thing he has got in his favour is a good motor. He doesn’t appear to take any snaps off and even though he doesn’t always finish when given the opportunity, he keeps working to make plays. Sheldon Richardson has that same attitude, but the big difference between the two is Richardson is nasty. He’ll take a hit and come back harder on the next play. He gets in your face, he has attitude. Floyd will score much higher than Richardson for character, but it’d be nice to see a bit more of a mean streak at times on the field.

Before people ask, I can’t imagine the Seahawks using him in the Red Bryant role which is essentially a 5-technique. Bryant is much bigger than Floyd. When asked who would replace him if he can’t make the Bears game on Sunday, Pete Carroll said Alan Branch would play DE with 284lbs Greg Scruggs taking over at the three technique. Carroll wants size in the Bryant position, not an orthodox 3-4 defensive end. In fact, he’s probably more likely to draft massive Georgia nose tackle Jonathan Jenkins to play the Bryant role than a guy like Floyd. And whatever people think of Bryant’s play this year – he remains a focal point of the defense. He’s also the highest paid defensive player on the team and a big emotional leader.

Is he likely to be on Seattle’s radar? Possibly given USC and Carroll’s reported interest in him before he chose Florida. However, I think he’s more likely to interest 3-4 teams and the Seahawks might be looking for a more orthodox three technique in the draft, such as the aforementioned Richardson out of Missouri.