Imagine Seattle’s offense with one more great receiver.

The Seahawks are averaging 50 points a game in their last three outings. They’re running the ball efficiently. Russell Wilson is throwing the ball well. Everything is clicking.

But just imagine this offense with one more talented wide out to go with Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin. Doesn’t Wilson deserve to be complimented with more weapons? Are you not intrigued to see just how good he could be with another game changing receiver on the roster?

There’s a fear factor about drafting first round receivers, largely inspired by Matt Millen’s ill-fated tenure as Detroit’s General Manager. Between 2003-05, Millen selected Charles Rogers, Roy Williams and Mike Williams with top ten picks. The heavy outlay at the position made little impact on the team, with another top-ten pick Joey Harrington also becoming a top-ten quarterback bust for Millen. Since then, fans have often cited a distrust in drafting receivers early.

Is this a good time to mention Millen also drafted Calvin Johnson?

Here’s the thing – it doesn’t really matter what happened in the past. If 99 first round receivers bust, it doesn’t mean #100 won’t make the Hall of Fame. In the 2008 draft, no receivers were drafted in the first round. At the time it was assumed this was an example of the NFL ‘learning its lesson’. In reality, it was just a review of the draft class on the whole. A year later, six receivers were taken in the first round. And the success rate of the players taken in the subsequent three drafts is quite high.

2011 – A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Jonathan Baldwin
2010 – Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant
2009 – Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt

That’s eleven receivers in total. Of the group, only the Al Davis-inspired Heyward-Bey is a calamitous bust. Green, Jones, Thomas and Bryant are among the NFL’s best receivers, while Harvin, Nicks, Britt and Crabtree are key components within their respective teams. Jonathan Baldwin has struggled to make an impact, yet Kansas City’s quarterback position is a mess and they’ll likely earn the #1 overall pick next week. Funnily enough, there appears to be a correlation between receivers drafted early being successful and whether they have a good quarterback throwing the ball. Funny that, isn’t it?

After all, Millen’s greatest mistake in Detroit wasn’t to draft three receivers in round one. It was to invest in a bad quarterback.

Really it’s not the receiver position itself that is the issue. It’s whether you can identify the right players and put them in a good situation. The Seahawks have their quarterback and the ‘good situation’. Who would bet against them identifying the right player if they do choose to draft a receiver?

That’s the direction I’ve gone in this latest mock. We’ll continue to look at a lot of different options in the new year. The pick I’ve gone with is a relatively inexperienced player who could fall simply for that reason. Brandon Coleman is far from the finished article. Yet his upside is incredible. This is the first time I’ve mocked him to Seattle, but it’s not the first time we’ve talked about him. His team, Rutgers, is taking on Virginia Tech in the Russell Athletic Bowl on Friday. I wonder if an athletic Russell will be throwing to him in 2013?

Will he declare? It’s still a debating point. He told Keith Sargeant: “That was something I was going to think about after the bowl game, but right now I’m thinking about coming back for another year. I’ll just keep developing. I like this bond I have with this team, and I feel like I still have room to grow as a receiver.” He still sounds unsure, even if he claims to be leaning to a return. A big bowl performance can change things. So can a positive report from the draft committee. Ultimately what he has to decide is whether he’s more likely to take the ‘next step’ with more time in the college ranks in a run heavy system, or whether he’s better off turning pro. It’ll be a tough choice.

Just a first round projection today…

	#1 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) The Chiefs need a quarterback. They don’t have a terrible roster. They have to do this.

	#2 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) The Jaguars need a pass rusher and Werner could steadily move up the boards after a 13.5 sack season.

	#3 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M) Only Jacksonville has less sacks than Oakland. Moore had 12.5 in the SEC this year for A&M.

	#4 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M) This is the starting point for whoever replaces Andy Reid. They have to repair the offensive line.

	#5 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon) He’s a physical freak. He could blow up the combine. If he does… then hello to the top five.

	#6 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) The way Buddy Nix is talking, he’ll probably trade back into round one for a quarterback. If he keeps his job.

	#7 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) Defensive end is the bigger need but three are off the board already.

	#8 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) Elite potential. Vastly underrated. The complete cornerback.

	#9 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) All the messing around at quarterback cannot happen again next year.

	#10 Jake Matthews (T, Texas A&M) He’ll move over to left tackle in the pro’s.

	#11 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) He’s good enough to go in the top ten. So is Jonathan Cooper.

	#12 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia) Top-ten potential. This would be a steal.

	#13 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) He has a lot of upside, but he’s inconsistent.

	#14 Matt Elam (S, Florida) Elam’s a dynamic defensive back who will make plays at the next level.

	#15 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee) The X-Factor player of this draft.

	#16 Kyle Van Noy (DE, BYU) After everything he’s done this year, someone could draft this guy early.

	#17 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) The Rams need to find a left tackle and Fisher looks a lot like Joe Staley.

	#18 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina) Athletic guard who could even switch to tackle. He will start for 10+ years.

	#19 Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU) Another player who could really boost his stock with a great combine. A Giants type of pass rusher.

	#20 Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan) The next best tackle on the board.

	#21 Arthur Brown Jr (LB, Kansas State) Don’t under-estimate this guy. He’s legit.

	#22 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford) This gives Sam Bradford another weapon, but also solidifies the offense in general.

	#23 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson) It’s time to start talking about this guy as a top-25 talent.

	#24 Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas) No, I don’t think Indianapolis drafts Tyler Wilson. But this could be the range where a team like Buffalo trades back into round one.

	#25 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia) Jones’ spinal stenosis could lead to a grade in the late first round.

	#26 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers) Physically immense but undercooked and it could lead to a slight drop if he declares.

	#27 John Simon (DE, Ohio State) Just a solid, blue-collar pass rusher.

	#28 Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State) A smart team will draft this guy early. He’s the second coming of Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace.

	#29 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama) I think he fits best at the five technique in a 3-4.

	#30 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina) Terrific pass-rushing defensive tackle who can line up at the one or three technique.

	#31 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee) He had an excellent 2012 season. Thomas can play guard or tackle.

	#32 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Atlanta) Atlanta could use an interior upgrade.

Seattle has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

Football Outsiders ranks it as the #1 run blocking unit in the league after week 16. They’re still ranked at #16 for pass protection based on adjusted sack rate, but only seven teams have given up less sacks in the entire NFL.

The 49ers have three first round picks playing on their offensive line (Joe Staley, Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis). They’re the #2 running unit in the NFL. They’re also ranked 31st for pass protection. The New York Giants are ranked #3 for both the pass and the run for the #1 overall line. They have no first round picks featuring on their line. We’ll come back to that.

Offensive lines are a bit of a bug bear in Seattle. A never ending need if you will, a constant craving for an unlikely goal of elite starters at every position. The 2005 Super Bowl offensive line was incredibly effective and set the standard for this franchise. It was still made up mostly of no-thrills blue-collar lineman with minimal cost. The big investment came on the left side, with two first round picks at tackle and guard.

It’s no surprise that some fans are desperate to get there again. However, it’s worth noting the similarities between the two units. Once again the Seahawks have first round picks starting at left tackle and guard. Russell Okung is playing at a league-leading level, just like Walter Jones did for many years. James Carpenter isn’t Steve Hutchinson, but he’s shown flashes of real potential when healthy. The big issue for Carpenter is going to be proving he can stay on the field for a full season, but the team has coped without him.

What this line has over the 2005 group is an elite center (Max Unger) and enough young quality at right guard and tackle to make this a solid, overall unit with good depth. They’re not relying on ageing veterans here. They are starting first and second year players and they’re getting the job done.

Breno Giacomini still can’t catch a break from some fans. I don’t have access to statistics that will back this up, but the eye test says there haven’t been many better right tackles in the league in the second half of the season. The first half was frustrating – he had far too many penalties and the offense suffered as a consequence. Now he’s playing at an elite level for a right tackle. There, I said it.

This is how I’ll back that statement up…

Jared Allen, Cameron Wake, Julius Peppers, Mario Williams, Aldon Smith.

Five of the NFL’s best pass rushers. Five players who had absolutely no impact rushing the edge against the Seahawks. Some of that’s down to Russell Okung. Some of that’s down to Russell Wilson’s quick thinking and elusiveness. Some of it’s down to the brilliant play of Breno Giacomini.

The league isn’t stupid and they’re not going to line these guys against Okung every snap. They’ve tested Giacomini. And he’s answered the question. The entire offensive line has answered the question. Gone are the days where quarterbacks have no time to throw or appear to be under constant duress. Gone are the days when this team gets pushed around in the trenches. ESPN has removed the video of Trey Wingo, Mark Schlereth and Tedy Bruschi all picking the Seahawks to beat the Niners this week. I can’t directly quote Bruschi, but he made reference to there being only one team in the league that was physical enough on the offensive line to deal with the Niners. That team was Seattle.

Amid all the impressive performances against the leagues top pass rushers, the Seahawks maintain the #1 ranking for run offense. There’s no getting away from it, this is an elite unit and Giacomini deserves some credit. They all do.

It’s also a fluid situation. Carpenter, Paul McQuistan and John Moffitt have all spent time at left guard. McQuistan, Moffitt and J.R. Sweezy have all started at right guard. The coaches are happy to do this because they trust all of their guys. How many of you held your breath when you discovered Sweezy rather than Moffitt would start against the Niners? And how many of you noticed Sweezy during the game?

Going back to the New York Giants offensive line – the #1 line in the league according to Football Outsiders. They have a similar system, where they’ve had to plug people into the line-up. They’ve also won Super Bowls. They haven’t filled the line with pricey first and second round picks. Their biggest investment on the line was second round tackle William Beatty in 2009. What they have done is create consistency at the line, let the players learn the scheme and then trust them to execute. I ‘ve used this quote before, and I’ll keep rolling it out. This is the secret to success according to Giants guard David Diehl:

“People forget playing together for a long period of time is what makes you the best as possible. Now with someone getting hurt, or free agency, you don’t see a group together very long. When we had our best years here, it was when the five of us played together during that one long stretch. That’s what you have to have to have an effective offensive line. You have to have a lot of game experience together because there is so much continuity, fitting next to each other, being on the same page, being able to communicate when you can’t hear because of the noise.”

If you buy into this theory – and I do – the worst thing you can do is keep changing the offensive line every year. Consistency is key. You don’t have to keep going to the well to pick up first or second round picks.

Another quote I like? This one from Mike Shanahan:

“Everybody says we don’t have a good right tackle. I say show me who does?”

The Seattle Seahawks, Mike. They have a good right tackle. You might get a chance to meet him in the Playoffs.

This team has underrated quality on the offensive line, solid depth and a group of individuals who just get the system. They are familiar with each other. And they are helping this team win games of football. What’s more, they are organised by one of the best line coaches in the NFL, if not the best. I’m not trying to tell people what to think, but the offensive line just doesn’t look like a vital upgrade target. The depth’s good too.

The teams biggest needs – in my opinion – are as follows:

Three-technique – we’ve all seen how effective Aldon Smith is with a partner in crime. And yesterday we saw how effective he is without Justin Smith. The 4-3 under scheme Seattle uses is supposed to put a three-tech and the LEO next to each other so that a similar partnership can develop. Clemons has 11.5 sacks without that advantage. If the Seahawks can find a guy capable of crashing the pocket from the interior, Clemons and eventually Bruce Irvin will dominate in the same way Aldon Smith has in San Francisco. If only players like Justin Smith weren’t so rare…

Wide receiver – Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin. Essentially, that’s Seattle’s real depth chart at wide out. And it’s not big enough. And it’s not good enough. There’s room for at least one more top target to be added to that group especially with the respective injury history’s of the aforementioned players. Russell Wilson needs good targets just as much as he needs good pass protection and a running game. This is a vital need for the Seahawks.

WILL Linebacker – Leroy Hill continues to start ahead of Malcolm Smith and it leaves open the possibility that this is an area the Seahawks will consider upgrading in the draft next April, especially with players like Alec Ogletree expected to turn pro and Arthur Brown entering the league after his senior year at Kansas State.

Notes

Now that the Seahawks have qualified for the playoffs, they will pick no lower than #21 overall in the 2013 draft.

I’m planning a piece on Kyle Van Noy (DE, BYU) for after Christmas. Although I don’t think the Seahawks will draft another LEO rusher in round one next April, he looks almost too perfect for the role. After his big performance against San Diego State in the Poinsietta Bowl, I wanted to highlight just how good he could be. He has first round potential, but he won’t fit every scheme. He fits like a glove in Seattle.

For the third week in a row, the Seahawks delivered a beat down. Except this one was a little bit different. It wasn’t against a hopeless Cardinals outfit, or a Bills team going through the motions. This was on a whole different level.

This was a division rival. A ten-win division rival and the current division champions. A team that beat Tom Brady and the Patriots in their own back yard last week. That were placed by many as the NFL’s #1 in several national power rankings. This was the San Francisco 49ers on Jim Harbaugh’s 49th birthday.

Happy Birthday, Jim. And Merry Christmas, too.

Enough of that. Tonight’s all about the Seahawks. This was an opportunity to make a statement to the nation. The TV camera’s were in Century Link and all eyes were on the NFC West. Seattle’s message was, bluntly, “You don’t want to play us in the post season.” Message received, loud and clear.

It was a perfect evening for this franchise. Let’s list the reasons why…

– The fans showed once again that nobody is louder, that the true 12th man lives in the Pacific North West. Colin Kaepernick was visibly confused, used two time-outs in the first quarter and suffered multiple delay-of-game penalties. The 12th man helped Seattle set the tone early and set the stall for a one-sided affair.

– Russell Wilson made his greatest statement yet that he should be offensive rookie of the year with four touchdown passes. He wasn’t perfect, but he was playing one of the best defenses in the NFL. It all looks so easy to him – a testament to his work ethic, preparation and talent. This team has a franchise quarterback.

– Marshawn Lynch was in full-on beast mode. He has three 100-yard games against the 49ers since 2010. The rest of the NFL has two 100-yard games against the 49ers. He’s the most productive running back in the league not named Adrian Peterson.

– Red Bryant had a key blocked field goal that probably goes down as the play of the game. It made a likely 14-3 lead a 21-0 advantage instead. That was a huge turning point.

– Two Stanford players had big days against their former head coach. Richard Sherman returned the aforementioned blocked field goal for a touchdown and added a red-zone interception in the second half. Doug Baldwin scored twice and led the team for receiving yards. Neither display was a coincidence and the Seahawks visibly fed the ball to Baldwin. Sherman has seven interceptions for the season now – only Chicago’s Tim Jennings has more.

– Aldon Smith, chasing the NFL sack record, was a complete non-factor. The offensive line was again superb as a unit, but Russell Okung and Breno Giacomini deserve a special mention. Okung is a sure-fire Pro-Bowler based on his performances this year. Giacomini continues to play far better than anyone’s prepared to give him credit for. Over the last few weeks, you’ll struggle to convince me there’s been a better right tackle in the league.

– Seattle’s 42 points means they’ve averaged exactly 50 in their last three games. Who’d have believed that after the first few weeks?

– This is the fourth time a team has left Century Link Field not just beaten physically, but also emotionally. You could visibly see the life draining out of San Francisco’s players and coaches as the game continued. The same happened to Dallas, the New York Jets and Arizona.

Pete Carroll and John Schneider inherited a joke of a team in 2010. There were no building blocks on either side of the ball. No identity. The only thing left over from the Tim Ruskell era? An extra first round pick that turned into Earl Thomas. Aside from that one parting gift, they had nothing to work with.

In three seasons, this team has made the post-season twice. That is an underrated and incredible feat. The Seahawks suddenly have multiple cornerstone and franchise players. They’ve found a legit quarterback in round three, a shutdown corner in round five and a superstar running back via a steal of a trade. Then there’s the rest.

This team means business. Tonight was the exclamation point. Bring on the Rams and then the playoffs. Fear nobody.

Watch the video above. Get ready for tomorrow. Forget about the draft this weekend. It’s all about Sunday.

Saban says CJ Mosley will return to school next year, a major plus for Bama.

— Pat Forde (@YahooForde) December 20, 2012

As you can see from the tweet above, Nick Saban announced at a press conference today that C.J. Mosley will not be turning pro. It’s not a major surprise – many of Alabama’s big name defensive players have gone the distance over the last few years. He would’ve been an option for the Seahawks at the WILL position in the first two rounds of next April’s draft. Despite today’s news, Alec Ogletree is still expected to declare while seniors Arthur Brown and Khaseem Greene will make up for the loss of Mosley from the 2013 draft class.

Dan Kadar at Mocking the Draft is running an ‘underclassmen tracker’ which is worth bookmarking.

Cordarrelle Patterson is definitely declaring the 2013 NFL Draft.

That’s according to Tennesee’s new Head Football Coach Butch Jones, who wished him well and left it at that.

There’s a reason I keep coming back to this guy. I watched an awful lot of Vols games this year and sure enough – there are some issues. He’s far from the finished article. He’ll enter the league having spent one year in the NCAA as a JUCO transfer. All those words used to describe a guy in this situation – ‘raw’, ‘undercooked’… they all apply.

And yet he has such fantastic physical potential, you just can’t help but get excited. Ideal height (6-4), weight (205lbs) speed (legit 4.3/4.4 runner) and production (record setting all-purpose yards season). He could be the next big thing. Truly, he could.

He chose Tennessee despite serious interest from virtually every big school in the SEC. He visited LSU, Auburn, Ole Miss and Georgia. He had offers from Arkansas, Miami, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Baylor. In the end he probably made the right decision. Despite Tennessee’s struggles this year, he went to a team that found different ways to get the ball in his hands. From the three big name prospects turning pro from that school (Justin Hunter, Tyler Bray and Patterson) – he’s the one with some momentum.

I put him in the top-15 of my updated mock draft yesterday with good reason. Despite all of the ‘boom or bust’ labels he’ll receive, you just can’t get away from the upside. He’s a threat to score every single time the ball’s in his hands. Couldn’t the Dolphins do with a player like that? A big time playmaker to aid the development of Ryan Tannehill? Would he get past a team like Minnesota, who clearly need someone to take some of the strain away from Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin? And if he does make it to the Seahawks, would they not consider adding an explosive receiver to this offense? An offense that’s zoned in to quick strikes in the passing game?

A few years ago Mel Kiper was beating the drum for a similar player, this time on the defensive side of the ball. His name was Jason Pierre-Paul. Terrific athlete, major upside and looked the part on tape. But he was raw. He seemed unprepared for the pro-game, maybe even a little immature. Yet Kiper promoted that guy and in fairness, he was justified in doing so. He might not be the first to the party this time regarding Patterson, but he’s similarly intrigued by Patterson. It wouldn’t surprise me if we see a similar outcome, with CP going on to become one of the league’s more dynamic talents.

Prospect watch: BYU vs San Diego State

BYU has one of the better senior defensive lineman on their roster in Ezekiel Ansah. He’s 6-6 and 278lbs and his best football will likely come at the next level. Although he’s not an obvious target for the Seahawks (not a LEO, Seattle has depth with Clemons/Irvin), he has prototype size for the end position and a lot of upside. Also keep an eye on Kyle Van Noy – an undersized outside linebacker who’s registered 11.5 sacks this year. He’ll have a tough decision to make over whether to declare or not, but he could be a mid-rounder next April. I’ve posted a game tape video below of his performance against San Jose State.

A player perhaps more relevant for Seahawks fans is San Diego State tight end Gavin Escobar. He’s a pure pass-catcher and doesn’t do much blocking – but at 6-5 and 255lbs he’s the latest candidate for the ‘could be the next Jimmy Graham’ award. Escobar’s a tremendous athlete for his size and could easily be a second round pick. He’s had big games and very quiet games this year, but hopefully he’ll end the season on a high-note and put on a show for the watching NFL scouts.

A further thought on yesterday’s mock update

Click here to see this weeks ‘far too early’ projection. I think Zach Ertz will interest Seattle if he does declare. There’s no doubting the Seahawks need to do something at receiver or tight end. Right now they’re an injury away to Sidney Rice or Golden Tate and life will become very difficult for Russell Wilson. Ideally, they find a receiver that warrants a high pick. Brandon Coleman, Cordarrelle Patterson, DeAndre Hopkins, Markus Wheaton… there are options out there. They also have a lot of money invested in Zach Miller and Anthony McCoy continues to show enough potential to keep the faith that he can deliver on his major upside.

However, there’s something about Ertz that screams ‘Seattle’.

The Seahawks are already using a lot of 2TE sets. I suspect they’d like to do so even more. Ertz is a good enough blocker (others disagree, but I think it’s actually a strong point of his) to stay on the field for any play call. At Stanford he and Levine Toilolo are pretty much the primary targets in the passing game. They run the ball a lot, utilise play action and look to get the tight ends lined up against linebackers. Theoretically the Seahawks could use Rice and Tate out wide with Ertz and Miller at the line of scrimmage. That’s four legitimate targets for Russell Wilson in a formation that traditionally screams ‘run play’ to the defense.

If necessary, there’s nothing to stop Ertz lining up in the slot or even out wide. He does it at Stanford. It’s not an unthinkable move for the Seahawks.

In round two I went for Khaseem Greene. After Alec Ogletree and Arthur Brown, he’s probably the most logical WILL prospect for this defense. He’s right up there with C.J. Mosley in that regard. He’s an athlete without ideal size for the position, but the Seahawks aren’t asking their linebackers to get too involved in the trenches. They want to rush four, let the defensive line do its job and free up the linebackers and defensive backs to make plays. Ogletree, Brown, Greene or Mosley would be terrific additions to a growing defense. Of course, unless they can add a pass rushing three-technique (the teams greatest need), they’ll struggle to make the most of that second level talent.

Kyle Van Noy (LB, BYU) tape vs San Jose State

A few different looks in this week’s updated mock. We’re still miles away from the draft so please, please, please don’t take this as anything other than a conversation starter. I do think, however, we are getting a better idea of the areas of need for the Seahawks.

Defensive tackle – An upgrade at the three technique is absolutely paramount. If they want to rush four most of the time in base – and they do – then they need some who can collapse the pocket from the inside. Alan Branch has qualities, but he doesn’t create any interior pressure. This mock perhaps shows how difficult it might be to solve this issue in round one. The top prospects (Richardson, Lotulelei) will be long gone. It could push the Seahawks towards free agency where the likes of Randy Starks are expected to hit the market. He could be a real game-changer for this defense.

Wide receiver/tight end – The Seahawks absolutely have to get more depth here. Imagine the situation where Sidney Rice or Golden Tate picked up an injury? The pre-season try-outs for Braylon Edwards and Terrell Owens said a lot – there was a little desperation in the air, especially with Doug Baldwin’s injury in pre-season. This has to be an off-season priority and it doesn’t necessarily have to be a receiver. There’s nothing to stop the team picking up another tight end, especially one with experience lining up out wide and in the slot. A player like Zach Ertz – Stanford’s leading receiver this year – would also fit the bill (see video above). I suspect Pete Carroll would like to run even more 2TE sets, so it’s not such a ridiculous prospect if the value isn’t there at receiver.

Linebacker – The WILL position could still use an upgrade or at least further competition. Malcolm Smith has a chance to nail down the starting job if he keeps performing to a high standard. It appears we’re witnessing the final throws of Leroy Hill’s solid career in Seattle. Even if Smith doesn’t win the gig permanently, he’s always going to provide special teams value and good depth. A rangy player such as Alec Ogletree or Arthur Brown would make a lot of sense if available in round one. And while linebacker falls behind DT and WR/TE as a pure need, it could provide the best value at the end of round one.

Some of the changes this week include Barkevious Mingo dropping a bit (not had a great year), Cordarrelle Patterson moving into the top-15 (X-factor type with ideal size) and now that Kyle Long won’t be returning to Oregon, he makes the second round.

A quick note on Patterson by the way – and he’s a player to keep an eye on for the Seahawks. New Tennessee coach Butch Jones said today he “definitely” expects him to declare for the 2013 draft. Per Evan Woodbery, Jones is quoted as saying, “He’s a special player with a great skill set. I wish him well.”

First round

	#1 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) The Chiefs need a quarterback. They don’t have a terrible roster. And even if the value isn’t quite there, this solves their biggest problem.

	#2 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) The Jaguars need a pass rusher and Werner could steadily move up the boards after a 13.5 sack season.

	#3 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) The Raiders need to start drafting good football players. This will be a long rebuild.

	#4 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M) This is the starting point for whoever starts Philly’s new era. They have to repair the offensive line.

	#5 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon) He’s a physical freak. He could blow up the combine. If he does… then hello to the top five.

	#6 Jake Mathews (T, Texas A&M) Although he’s playing at right tackle for the Aggies, he’s good enough to move across and play the blind side.

	#7 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M) He’s having a great year and looks the part of a NFL rusher. He has 12.5 sacks in the SEC. That isn’t easy.

	#8 Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas) They need to draft a quarterback. And then they need to give that quarterback better receivers.

	#9 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) Sheldon Richardson is Darnell Dockett.

	#10 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers) Stunning prospect. 6-6 receiver who out-runs defensive backs. Hands catcher.

	#11 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) All the messing around at quarterback cannot happen again next year. The madness has to stop.

	#12 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) Elite potential. Vastly underrated. The complete cornerback.

	#13 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee) The Dolphins need playmakers for Ryan Tannehill. Patterson is the X-factor player of 2013.

	#14 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) Enormous ceiling but he just blows too hot and cold. Inconsistent.

	#15 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) He’s good enough to go in the top ten. So is Jonathan Cooper.

	#16 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia) I want to find a way to get him in the top ten. Incredible potential.

	#17 Matt Elam (S, Florida) Elam’s a dynamic defensive back who will make plays at the next level.

	#18 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina) Athletic guard who could even switch to tackle. He will start for 10+ years.

	#19 Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU) Another player who could really boost his stock with a great combine. A Giants type of pass rusher.

	#20 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) He’s good enough to go earlier. Underrated, probably because he plays at a smaller school. He’s the next Joe Staley.

	#21 Arthur Brown Jr (LB, Kansas State) Don’t under-estimate this guy. He’s legit.

	#22 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson) Minnesota needs more options at receiver. Hopkins could have an instant impact.

	#23 Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan) The next best tackle and the Rams need to fill this position long term.

	#24 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford) The Seahawks need another pass-catcher. Ertz can line up at WR or TE, providing much needed depth to both positions.

	#25 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia) They’re building a 3-4 defense. That means they need a nose tackle.

	#26 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia) Baltimore are good enough to take a chance on Jones, whose spinal stenosis issue will put off some teams.

	#27 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama) His best position could be the five technique in a 3-4 defense.

	#28 Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State) A smart team will draft this guy early. He’s the second coming of Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace.

	#29 John Simon (DE, Ohio State) Just a solid, blue-collar pass rusher.

	#30 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina) Terrific pass-rushing defensive tackle who can line up at the one or three technique.

	#31 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee) He had an excellent 2012 season. Thomas can play guard or tackle.

	#32 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia) When you have a roster like Atlanta’s, why not go for another playmaker?

Second round

#33 Jacksonville – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#34 Kansas City – Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
#35 Philadelphia – Barrett Jones (C, Alabama)
#36 Detroit – Jonathan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#37 Cincinnati – Giovani Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#38 Buffalo – C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama)
#39 Carolina – Shawn Williams (S, Georgia)
#40 Tennessee – Kyle Long (G, Oregon)
#41 Arizona – Justin Pugh (T, Syracuse)
#42 San Diego – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#43 Miami – Brennan Williams (T, North Carolina)
#44 New York Jets – Mike Glennon (QB, NC State)
#45 Tampa Bay – Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
#46 St. Louis – Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
#47 Pittsburgh – Stepfan Taylor (RB, Stanford)
#48 Chicago – D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
#49 New York Giants – Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia)
#50 Dallas – Jonathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#51 Washington – Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
#52 Minnesota – Bennie Logan (DT, LSU)
#53 Cincinnati – Alex Okafor (DE, Texas)
#54 Miami – Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)
#55 Seattle – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#56 Baltimore – Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
#57 New England – Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
#58 Green Bay – Montee Ball (RB, Wisconsin)
#59 San Francisco – Jordan Poyer (CB, Oregon State)
#60 Denver – Jonathan Franklin (RB, UCLA)
#61 Atlanta – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#62 Houston – Keenan Allen (WR, California)

Kansas State’s Arthur Brown still looks like a future Seahawk

Last week I wrote a piece about Kansas State linebacker Arthur Brown and why he’s worth keeping an eye on for the 2013 draft. He seems almost ideal for Pete Carroll. There’s the history of recruitment at USC, the schematic desire to get the linebackers in space to make plays. Brown is almost the definition of what I think Carroll wants from the MIKE and the WILL.

That’s not to say he’ll definitely be taken by the Seahawks with an early pick. Leroy Hill started the Buffalo game but was swiftly replaced by Malcolm Smith who took most of the snaps at the WILL. If Smith wins the job permanently before the end of the season, he may win it for the long haul. Even so, the Seahawks are a good enough team these days to take the best player available in the first round of a draft. And who’s going to argue with Carroll and John Schneider, whoever they determine to be BPA?

The video above shows Brown’s 2012 tape against West Virginia. I think it shows off why he’s a good fit in Seattle. He’s rangy with excellent speed and the Seahawks want guys who can cover at the second level, react to the play call and gravitate to the football. He’s an opportunist and that’s really what this defense is about – capitalising on pressure to create turnovers. Of course, the Seahawks won’t really benefit from an opportunistic group of defensive backs and linebackers unless the front four can create more pressure. And that comes back to the teams absolute #1 need – an upgrade at the three technique. Did I mention I Randy Starks yet?

Have a look at the tape above and let me know what you think.

Turning pro… or not?

A few players made their intentions known today ahead of the January 15th deadline. Tennessee wide receiver Justin Hunter tweeted, “declared”. Using my excellent detective skills, I’ve determined that means he’ll be turning pro. That’s a significant move and could be a precursor to Tyler Bray and Cordarrelle Patterson also entering the draft. An argument can be made for all three returning and benefiting from another year with the Vols. However, with a new coaching staff taking over and a new blue print set to be installed, it won’t be a big shock if all three head for the NFL.

Bray has plenty of arm talent but is hugely erratic, inaccurate and has poor mechanics. There are also several character issues to address. Patterson is close to Hunter and that could have a big impact on his decision. ESPN’s Chris Low is reporting that he’s expected to declare. In my next mock draft on Wednesday, I’m going to put Patterson in the top-15.

UCLA linebacker Anthony Barr will return for another year with the Bruins in 2013. He’s a fullback-turned-pass rusher and had a terrific season with 13.5 sacks. Barr made the right call here – UCLA stands to make further strides next year and should contend for the Rose Bowl. If he can tally another 10-15 sack season he could easily be a high pick in the 2014 draft. Barr could use the extra time on the field, helping a winning team.

Notre Dame nose tackle Louis Nix also made the same decision to stay in college. Had he declared, he could’ve been a top-15 pick. Nix and Stephen Tuitt are the unsung heroes of the Irish defense, lost among a wave of publicity for Manti Te’o. Both will be high picks in 2014.

5th seed crucial for the Seahawks?

It seems improbable that the same San Francisco team that beat New England last night will now lose two games against the Seahawks and the Cardinals. The victory all but secured a second successive NFC West title for the 49ers. Good for them.

However, nobody should feel next weeks game is any less important for the Seahawks.

As things stand, Seattle owns the #5 seed. If the season ended today, the Seahawks would be travelling to face the Washington Redskins in the wildcard playoffs. The victor would probably play the Atlanta Falcons on the road in the second round. Assuming the NFC West crown is now out of reach, there’s no point wasting time dreaming of home playoff games and first round byes. The Seahawks are almost certainly going on the road if they make the post-season. And facing the NFC East champions and the Atlanta Falcons is not a death sentence.

If the Seahawks were to finish in the #6 slot instead, you’re looking at trips to San Francisco and Green Bay. That’ll be much more difficult to overcome.

I’m not trying to argue here that a combination of Dallas/Washington/New York and then Atlanta would be easy. Nothing is easy in the post-season. But one scenario appears more favourable than the other. It’s crucial that the Seahawks finish strongly even if the 49ers are destined to be the NFC West Champions again. Nobody will want to face an 11-5 wildcard in the playoffs. The next two weeks are a great opportunity for this team to prove they truly are Super Bowl contenders, even if they have to do it the hard way. They have to go for these next two games. Win both and they’re guaranteed the #5 seed.

The ultimate Russell Wilson video

After another record breaking performance by Russell Wilson yesterday, I think it’s only fair to remind ourselves what people were saying about the decision to draft him in April. Finally, Wilson is getting some rookie of the year love from the mainstream media, and it’s about time. He’s out-performing Andrew Luck (he really is) and Robert Griffin’s case is being weakened by injury.

Nobody’s perfect when it comes to projecting the draft… but here’s a gentle reminder that none of us should jump to conclusions too quickly – especially when it comes to teams we don’t cover exclusively. Check out the video below. There’s some irony that the supposed ‘worst pick’ of the third round in the 2012 NFL Draft could actually be one of the greatest third round picks in the history of the league.

Quote from B******r R*****t’s Matt Miller: “The Seahawks continue to fumble in the 2012 draft“.

Seahawks picks when the comment was made: Bruce Irvin (leads all rookies for sacks), Bobby Wagner (legit candidate for DROY), Russell Wilson (legit candidate for OROY).

*Disclaimer – this will be the only time in the 2012 NFL season I’ll be linking to anything from the B******r R****t website.