Tape courtesy of Aaron Aloysius

As Seahawks fans embrace the likely attention the front seven will receive in this upcoming draft, Lavonte David (LB, Nebraska) is a name that keeps being mentioned. He was a Butkus Award runner-up in 2011, he had a solid Senior Bowl and expectations are that he could impress at the combine. You want to see pure speed from a linebacker who’s playing at 6-0 and 220lbs and it’ll be interesting so see how he performs. Players without prototypical size are always going to have to compensate, so an impressive athletic showing will allay fears that size will matter at the next level. That could be the issue, however.

I’ve seen some projectionists suggest he could get into round one contention, but I think that’s very optimistic. He may test well at the combine, but the tape above shows an athlete with above average mobility, but not the kind of consistent explosion that could promote him beyond a R2-4 grade. See the play at 4:54 where he has an angle on the runner, but is beaten on the outside for speed. He needs to make that play if he’s going to be considered a smaller, quicker linebacker at the next level. His best asset is working through traffic against the run when the play is in front of him. Check the tape at 0:16, 0:36, 4:06 and 4:14 to see an example of read, react and finish. Footwork is key here and he moves well to avoid blocks when trying to work in traffic. He also does well to diagnose plays quickly and get to the ball carrier. Reports say he’s a hard worker who’s spent a lot of time in the film room during his two years in Nebraska.

At times he gets overwhelmed, but that’s not a total surprise at 220lbs. You see at 1:29 when he plays at the LOS that he struggles when starting in a more attack-minded position. He cuts into the middle to try the inside rush, but gets stoned by the lineman allowing a big run on the outside. He doesn’t look a mature or effective pass rusher at this stage (although he’s not really used as a rusher) and at his size he really needs to learn to avoid contact and use his mobility to greater effect to work as a threatening pass rusher. Teams will need to feel confident he can develop this side of his game. At the moment he looks like a player who will predominantly play a lot of his snaps behind the LOS, but you have to believe teams are going to want to be more aggressive with a 220lbs linebacker knowing he could be a liability in the second level at that size.

When he gets low on tackles he’s effective. He understands he won’t be able to overpower bigger runners and receivers and I like his overall tackling technique which seems to be consistent. However, there are still times when he seems to deflect off runners. That’s a risky play, especially against the caliber of back he’ll face in the NFL. Go low, but make sure you wrap up and take the ankles – don’t rely on your shoulder knocking Ray Rice or Marshawn Lynch off balance. I like the play at 2:59 purely because it’s opportunistic. He senses a chance to strip the ball loose and force the turnover and he executes.

I wonder if teams will consider a move to safety, especially given he actually added weight before his Senior year (he previously played at around 210lbs). Switching to strong safety could be an option, because his frame is pretty maxed out as it is. I think he’s more suited to the WILL where his size will be less of a concern – but he’ll need to reassure teams he’s quick enough and capable enough of adding some pass-rush threat. In college he was a tackling machine – one almost as impressive as Luke Kuechly at times (albeit with greater lateral mobility, if not overall technique). Yet at the next level he’s going to have to adapt. That’s what makes David such a difficult projection right now. He could be that guy who everyone expects to go early but falls a bit.

Alex Dunlap from the Austin Chronicle featured Seahawks Draft Blog in a piece discussing team needs around the league. Here’s what we had to say: “The Seahawks greatest long-term need is at quarterback, but don’t expect the team to reach for the position this year. It’s almost certain they’ll instead target defense early and particularly the front seven, so the likes of Courtney Upshaw, Melvin Ingram, Quinton Coples, and Zach Brown will be on the radar. Running back is also likely to get attention within the first three rounds as Seattle looks to compliment – and protect – Marshawn Lynch.”

Rob Rang at CBS Sportsline lists this year’s pro-day schedule, starting with Missouri on March 1st. Scouts will be busy on March 7th with Alabama, USC, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Wisconsin and California prospects all performing. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III will also have to share the headlines on March 22nd, when Stanford and Baylor’s pro-days coincide.

Two pieces of tape for your observation this weekend (courtesy of JMPasq). Chris Polk is a running back who’s tape will always outshine his workout performance. Although he received negative reviews at the Senior Bowl, I still expect teams will grade him highly based on performance. Nick Perry is slightly overrated in my eyes, considering he’s being graded as a first round pick by a lot of projectionists. More on Perry to come shortly including a more detailed analysis, but I’d be surprised if he left the board in the top-32.

Chris Polk (RB, Washington) tape vs Baylor

Nick Perry (DE, USC) tape vs Washington

Trading down could cost the Seahawks a shot at this, which seems unlikely

In 2011, the Seahawks talked a lot about moving down. John Schneider was pretty open about this desire to do so and was pretty open about the way they searched for a good deal last April. Twelve months earlier, Schneider admitted a trade was on the table to move down from the #14 spot. It was all set to be completed, until the Eagles surprisingly passed on Earl Thomas and instead took Brandon Graham. Seattle, who always intended to take a tackle and safety combo in 2010, decided Thomas was too good to pass.

It’s a bit early for Schneider or Pete Carroll to come out and talk about moving up or down the board in their third draft with the team, but I suspect there’s every chance the Seahawks will be rooted to the #11 or #12 pick. They only have six picks due to various trades and it seems likely they’ll try and accumulate more either before or during the event. However, there’s always a slight danger in valuing quantity over quality and I don’t expect any mistakes to be made this year. Carroll made his intentions known at the end of the season – to improve the front seven and the pass rush. On April 26th, the Seahawks will try to draft someone who can do that. There will be possible exceptions (such as an elite talent like Trent Richardson falling) but the likely focus will be on the Courtney Upshaw’s, Melvin Ingram’s and Quinton Coples’ of this class.

We all have different opinions on that trio. Personally, I have mixed feelings for Coples but he has the highest ceiling among any defensive player in the class of ’12. I’m not a big fan of Ingram, others have different impressions of his potential. I see Upshaw as one of the few elite talents in this class. By moving down the board, the Seahawks run the risk of missing out in a year without a great amount of top defensive lineman. In my latest mock draft, six front-seven prospects were off the board by the 15th pick. The only other defensive lineman I had going in round one beyond that was Fletcher Cox – a player expected to translate to a pure five-technique at the next level. Three linebackers remained on the board – Dont’a Hightower, Luke Kuechly and Sean Spence.

Of course, that’s just my interpretation of what could happen and maybe some of the players I have going early will fall, allowing the Seahawks to make a realistic drop and still get a player they really want. However, I think this front office wants to find a pass rusher who can provide the same impact as Aldon Smith in San Francisco – someone who can be used in different looks and make big plays on key passing downs. Upshaw, Coples and Ingram will not last very long if you believe the projectionists. I doubt all three leave the board before #11 or #12, but two might. Seattle isn’t going to gamble on losing that last player if they’re determined to add to their pass rush.

Some may point to the talent available at the top of round two. Whitney Mercilus continues to be something of a mystery (just how good is he?), Brandon Thompson likewise could be an underrated player due to his lack of production. Vinny Curry impressed at the Senior Bowl and Chandler Jones, Nick Perry, Cam Johnson and Jared Crick all have value. The Seahawks will still have a shot at one of these players in round two and being able to maybe reach for another in round one isn’t really a preferable situation when you miss out on a Courtney Upshaw (for example) for the sake of an extra third round pick (for another example).

There is some precedent for trading down multiple times, but I’ve always thought this appears to be smarter on the actual day than in hindsight. New England have drafted poorly in recent years despite accumulating more picks than several teams combined. Cleveland has moved down aggressively to acquire a couple of players I thought were top-20 talents (Alex Mack and Phil Taylor) but also gave away the chance to draft in the top ten and grab players who maybe could’ve lifted the Browns beyond mediocrity. For all of Denver’s dealing in 2010, they ended up with Tim Tebow as the end product. If you draft smart, you make the most of top-15 picks and build a good team. There will never be a substitute for pure quality and while more picks also means more opportunities to hit, you’re always picking from a smaller sample when you move down.

I think the Seahawks will see this as an opportunity to add another key defensive piece, just like they did with Earl Thomas. They may well get trade offers – some that are maybe quite tempting too – but ultimately this team knows what it wants. You can never rule anything out and if the three defensive lineman named above are off the board – and so is Trent Richardson – they could move down a little bit and consider a player like Zach Brown. But faced with the opportunity to draft Coples, Upshaw or Ingram – I think there’s a strong chance that is what will happen.

To consider a move down the board, you need a trade partner. We can at least consider which teams might wish to move up to tempt the Seahawks with a deal:

San Diego (Currently own #18 overall)
The Chargers need to rebuild their offensive line and might struggle to draft a left tackle at #18. The best lineman will leave the board quickly given the premium nature of the position and players like Matt Kalil, Riley Reiff and Jonathan Martin could go in the top ten. If any survive or if San Diego sees real value in Ohio State’s Mike Adams, they might need to jump Arizona at #13 or even Kansas City at #12 if Seattle wins the coin-toss. San Diego made a bold move up the board in 2010 to draft Ryan Mathews, so could it happen again?

Philadelphia (Currently own #15 overall)
A team that has also shown it’s willingness to move up, Philly could be active in round one. Andy Reid isn’t a predictable drafter although he’s avoided drafting linebackers early. He’s in prime position to draft Zach Brown if he wishes, but may decide he needs to get at the top receivers should the Eagles lose a player like DeSean Jackson. Although there’s no obvious reason to grab Seattle’s pick at #11 or #12, should a player such as Justin Blackmon suffer a bit of a fall, Philly might not waste any time if Buffalo passes.

New York Jets (Currently own #16 overall)
A third franchise with previous history in making a move – the Jets moved heaven and earth to draft Mark Sanchez in 2009. They could use help with the pass rush and at receiver and may entertain the idea of a trade to get an injection of quality. Although New York had a disappointing 2011, they’re still a team who made the AFC Championship game in the two previous seasons. One or two key additions could put the Jets back on the map and they may feel like they need to make a splash after watching their neighbours win the Super Bowl.

Whitney Mercilus is a player I’m still trying to work out. In my initial tape review vs UCLA, I had mixed feelings. He flashed on a handful of run plays, got to the quarterback enough to impact the game and showed the ability to adapt and work out a lineman’s weaknesses. Mercilus also struggled against a tight end he should be dominating in college, didn’t flash an effective bull rush or compensate with elite speed or technique. He led the NCAA for sacks in 2011, but how does he grade? I’ll keep monitoring the tape including the performance above against Ohio State – expect more on Mercilus soon.

Tape courtesy of Aaron Aloysius

Quarterbacks receive too much credit when the team wins, and too much blame when the team loses. Mark Sanchez's first 3 years are a monument to this truism.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Every now and then, Rob and I are privy to some insider Seahawks information from a proven and reliable source.  In the case of the Carson Palmer trade which Rob reported last year, he decided to go public with that information after confirming it with two NFL sources- but its worth noting that neither of those sources was our usual guy, and when Rob asked him about it, he never confirmed or denied what we had been hearing about talks between Cincy and Seattle last year.  I personally think there really was something there with Palmer, but because then first-place Oakland got desperate and overpaid after Campbell went down last year, we’ll never really know how accurate the information really was.  I bring this up because I want to defend the credibility of our source, who had nothing to do with that report- even if it ends up being true.  Pretty much every piece of information the source has given us has more or less been proven later.

This source has recently been in contact with Rob, who in turn has relayed some information to me.  Obviously, Rob and I are Seahawks fans first and we understand the importance of information warfare this time of year.  A lot of the stuff we have been told could do real damage to Seattle’s offseason plan if we carelessly leaked it.  But that said, we do have some insider knowledge.  Let me say right now that a Mark Sanchez trade is NOT a part of that.  We have no confirmation or denial that a Sanchez deal is in the works to Seattle, based on what we’ve heard.  However, Rob and I both feel that it is a significant possibility regardless, and worth discussing on the blog since obviously it would impact both Seattle’s search for a quarterback and the draft picks they’d have at their disposal in April.  Again, this is all speculative.  This is not a scoop.

Anyway, the last couple months have been pretty interesting for the Jets, to say the least.  They lost their last 3 games of the season to finish 8-8 after entering the season with high expectations.  Rex Ryan stripped his team captains of their leadership titles.  The Jets’ locker room became a poisonous caldron that could scarcely contain itself.  Jets receiver Plaxico Burress took what could be considered a passive aggressive swipe at his quarterback at an autograph session.  Reports of a feud between Santonio Holmes and Mark Sanchez were laid bare by LaDainian Tomlinson on a recent television appearance, though in fairness to Sanchez, many other sources have painted Holmes as a bit of a headcase in 2011.  I won’t repost the entire Tomlinson article above but here are some parts of it that I found revealing:

The Sanchez-Holmes rift was “as bad as I’ve ever been around,” LaDainian Tomlinson revealed in a television interview.  Tomlinson, the latest player to characterize the dissension-torn locker room as The Florham Park Zoo, said he’s not sure if Sanchez and Holmes can co-exist. The future Hall of Famer claimed the locker-room problems “got out of hand” toward the end of the season, adding that coach Rex Ryan and general manager Mike Tannenbaum fueled the mentality because they like players that speak their mind.

“You know, it was at the point where I think the players could no longer do anything about it. There was nothing that the players could do. So when it gets to that point, there are certain changes that need to happen. Can it be fixed? I think absolutely it can be. But they’re going to have to make some tough decisions.”  If he were the GM, Tomlinson said it would be a “tough one,” the decision on whether to keep Sanchez and Holmes together.

Tomlinson, reiterating what he said last Sunday on ESPN’s NFL Countdown, refuted a claim by one unnamed player telling the New York Daily News that Sanchez is “lazy.” But he did say the Jets need a backup to push him.

“I would say a bit pampered because he has no competition,” Tomlinson said. “He has no real threat to say, ‘This guy may take my job.'”

Tomlinson said Sanchez can overcome the turmoil, but “he just has to have pieces around him to help him get it done.”

The New York Daily News interviewed several Jets players and a “Jets source” last month, and some of the findings were rather shocking.  The “Jets source” did not seem negative towards Sanchez, but also made it clear that he would happily ditch Sanchez in a New York minute for Peyton Manning, even saying it was a “no-brainer” and that it would be “stupid” for the team to avoid trying for Manning.  Among players interviewed, the tone was almost universally negative towards Sanchez.  Not everything the players said is on the level- for example one player accused Sanchez of being “lazy” which has been widely disputed elsewhere.  It doesn’t take much time to read the expose, but in case you decide to skip it, there is one part that really jumps out to me:

Some in the organization told The News that many of Sanchez’s teammates have grown resentful [of Sanchez] for myriad reasons.

“They see the organization babying him,” said a Jets source. “They see him with a sense of entitlement. He’s been given all this and hasn’t done anything. They call him ‘San-chise.’ They make him the face of the organization. They gave him the captain tag. He’s not a captain. He should have never been a captain.”

None of the players who spoke to the Daily News for this story agreed with Ryan’s decision to anoint Sanchez as a captain.

It should be clear at this point that the Jets badly want to win the Manning sweepstakes and have both Manning brothers in New York.  Most league observers consider this unlikely.  However, given how incredibly damaged Mark Sanchez has become among Jets fans and players in his own locker room, it seems very plausible that Sanchez’s days in New York could be numbered regardless.  From perusing a few Jets fan sites, I get the impression that Jets fans are receptive to the idea of getting what they can for Sanchez and moving on, whether they get Manning or not.  And as highlighted above by Tomlinson, its unclear if Sanchez and Holmes can coexist in 2012.

That’s significant because Holmes signed a five year, $45 million deal just before last season, and he was owed a $7.5 million roster bonus of sorts yesterday, meaning that if the Jets cut Holmes now, they will be $7.5 million poorer than if they had cut him on Tuesday.  If the Jets were to side with Sanchez in their dispute and jettison Holmes, this would have been the time to do it.  The deadline came and went.  Holmes will now officially remain a Jets player in 2012.

Woody Johnson, owner of the most unfortunate name in history and also the New York Jets, set up a rather suspiciously timed face to face meeting with Sanchez- set for just after that Holmes deadline.  As Tomlinson alluded to, keeping both Sanchez and Holmes would be difficult; tough decisions will have to be made.  It seems distinctly possible that New York could be considering an early exit from the Sanchez era.  Even if Sanchez and Holmes mend fences, which both he and Holmes are attempting but seems unlikely, there is also the fact that Sanchez has a large amount of antipathy in his own locker room.  It could be an environment poisoned beyond repair.  A change of scenery might be necessary for both parties, and soon.  Regardless of whether Manning is signed by the Jets or not.

If the Jets are looking to trade Sanchez, it seems unlikely he’d get a huge return.  Sanchez’s image is pretty damaged around the league- fairly or not- and consensus (from my own research) seems to indicate that he would command something like a 3rd or 4th round pick in a deal.  Jets fans I’ve encountered seem pretty receptive to the idea of trading Sanchez and getting something for him now instead of potentially nothing later, and dealing Sanchez would also have the side benefit of taking them off the hook for his $14.2 million salary cap number in 2012.  Sanchez posted mediocre (though improved) statistics in 2011, and could be easily replaced by someone like David Garrard, Kyle Orton, or Jason Campbell without feeling much- if any- short term pain.  Dealing Sanchez quickly could also increase the Jets slim chances of landing Manning, and they are expected to at least try for his services.

If Sanchez is dealt, and it increasingly appears this could be a very real possibility, there is no more obvious destination in the NFL than Seattle.  Regardless of our personal opinions on Sanchez, he clearly fits the high upside low cost “value” acquisition Seattle has frequently targeted under this regime.  Guys like Mike Williams, Leon Washington, LenDale White, Kentwan Balmer, Marshawn Lynch, and Brandon Browner.  A lot of Sanchez’s problems could be cured with a change of scenery, being forced to compete for his job, having better teammates around him (both as players and as people), and being part of an environment that is friendly but also stresses accountability.  As we saw with White, Carroll holds his former USC players to the same standard as everyone else.  Playing as far away as possible from the New York media would probably help too.

Pete Carroll commented recently that he wants there to be a real competition at quarterback in 2012.  If all goes to plan, we won’t see a repeat of last year where Jackson was the unquestioned starter from day one.  Making this goal reality is harder than it seems though.  It would be difficult to achieve true competition through any rookie other than Luck or RG3, and as we understand things, the odds of either being a Seahawk next year are extremely slim.  Cousins and Weeden are NFL ready relative to most mid round quarterbacks, but its doubtful they would provide much of a threat to Jackson in August of 2012.  To make this statement a reality, they would probably need to add a veteran who is roughly the same caliber of quarterback as Jackson.  Orton, Campbell, and Garrard could be options, but Seattle showed no interest in either Garrard or Orton when they were free agents during last season, and the team made no effort to trade for Campbell which is saying something since the Raiders acquired him for pennies on the dollar from the Redskins.

Mark Sanchez has slightly improved every season, and last year, his overall statistics were pretty close to Jackson’s.  Their passer ratings were within a point of each other (78.2 vs. 79.2).  Jackson posted a significantly higher yards per attempt, (6.9 vs. 6.4), but its worth noting that Sanchez’s YPA was fairly robust early in the season before issues with his receivers developed.  Only 50% of Sanchez’s attempts to Holmes were completed (worst in the NFL among pairings with 100+ attempts).  While I would give the statistical edge to Jackson last year, you kind of got the feeling that Jackson was near his ceiling as a quarterback (at least mentally), and Sanchez is still improving despite having a ton of distractions and problems in 2011.

Further, Jackson was playing a game manager role whereas the Jets leaned on Sanchez to be a playmaker.  Sanchez had a 26-18 TD/INT ratio last year compared to a 14/13 ratio for Jackson.  It could be that Sanchez could benefit from playing in a less demanding game manger role in much the same way that Jackson did in 2011.

It should be noted that while Jackson was a very poor quarterback in the red zone last year, Mark Sanchez was the NFL’s 5th best red zone quarterback and led the Jets to the NFL’s #1 overall red zone offense, despite the fact that the Jets overall offense ranked just 25th.  Having a quarterback who isn’t afraid to make tight throws could help Williams and Obomanu bounce back after both felt the loss of Hasselbeck last season.

While it no longer seems that Sanchez is a sure-fire franchise quarterback, it is at least credible to say that he’d provide a very real challenge in August for Tarvaris Jackson, much more of a challenge than a mid round quarterback like Cousins or Weeden.  Its also possible that a change of scenery, a reunion with his old coach, and the motivation of having to “earn everything” (one of Pete’s slogans in Seattle) could help Sanchez blossom into a solidly above average quarterback.  And even if a Sanchez acquisition fairs no better than the acquisitions of Balmer or White, the Seahawks will have likely lost less in that deal than what they lost in Charlie Whitehurst, who to me was a far inferior gamble then compared to Sanchez now.

Finally, its worth noting that connections matter to this front office.  The team very nearly signed Matt Leinart last summer before he opted to play for the Texans.  Multiple sources told us that Seattle was involved in talks with Cincy regarding Carson Palmer.  The team signed Tarvaris Jackson in large part because of his connections to new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell.  Even Josh Portis had some connections to Pete Carroll through his college offensive coordinator Walt Harris, whom Portis credits for developing him into a point guard quarterback.  Harris and Carroll worked together while in New York and both held coaching positions in the Pac-10 for a time.

There are three possible hangups to a deal.  The first is salary.  Sanchez is basically on a 2 year, $22 million contract and that would certainly have to be restructured.

The second issue is Carroll himself- has Pete Carroll forgiven Mark Sanchez for leaving USC early?  The normally positive and upbeat Carroll was visibly upset with Sanchez for the decision to go pro in 2009, after Carroll worked hard to convince Sanchez into staying.  Rob recently reached out to Scott Enyeart (a USC beat writer who also follows the Seahawks) and Enyeart mentioned that Sanchez was never as close with Carroll as he was with Steve Sarkisian and that the relationship between the two was fractured possibly beyond repair when Sanchez declared.

The third issue are the reports of the Jets cancerous locker room- how much of that is Mark Sanchez’s fault?  From the reports I have read, Sanchez comes across as a hard worker and a dedicated teammate, and I get the feeling that much of the discord is simply a bi-product of adversity coupled with a few big egos which have been poorly managed by the coaching staff- which is never a good combination.  Regardless, this is certainly something that would require looking into.

From the Jets’ side of things, they have given zero indication that they would trade Sanchez up to this point, but with the start of trade and free agency still five weeks away, it would be shocking to hear them say anything else, as it would invite an intense media storm at a time when the Jets can least afford it.

Is Darren McFadden on the trading block?

Oakland is entering the post Al Davis era in perhaps the most painful way possible.  The team’s new GM wants to install a west coast offense and a zone blocking running game, but the team is roughly $15-$20 million over the salary cap and only has only a 5th and 6th round pick to spend in the 2012 draft.  Despite the fact that Michael Bush is expected to leave in free agency, rumors are surfacing that Oakland could look to use star running back and former #4 overall pick Darren McFadden as a 2012 trade chip.  Trading McFadden wouldn’t just add some desperately needed draft capital, it would free them from the last two years of a 6 year, $60 million contract he signed in 2008.  McFadden was the first draft pick by the Raiders during Tom Cable’s turn at head coach.

Its not completely clear if Cable and McFadden would have mutual interest in reuniting though.  McFadden struggled in Cable’s version of zone blocking scheme and did much better after Cable left.  Still, McFadden is a very talented running back who could interest Seattle as a “value” acquisition, depending on what Oakland’s asking price ends up being.  I think Seattle would probably prefer to draft a running back instead, but its not out of the question that they could pursue a veteran to bolster the running game- if they feel the price is right.

How will changes in Oakland, including Reggie McKenzie's appointment, impact free agency?

In the last week we’ve been discussing the very likely proposition that Seattle won’t be drafting a quarterback early this year. With options limited in the first round and possibly better value to be had elsewhere in round two, we need to prepare for another twelve months of quarterback game tape study and wondering when this team will end a 20-year drought to draft a quarterback in round one. 

Of course, that’s not to say the Seahawks won’t upgrade the position at all this off-season. In fact, I expect they will do somethingwhen free agency and the trade market opens in mid-March. Charlie Whitehurst is out of contract and doesn’t look likely to be re-signed. Josh Portis remains untested and an unknown quantity. It appears unrealistic that this franchise – being built around competition – would drift into next season with Tarvaris Jackson’s only competition coming in the form of a rookie and/or Josh Portis.  

When the Seahawks signed Jackson, they were clearly making the best of a bad situation. Matt Hasselbeck’s deal with Tennessee was tough to match given the cost, length and commitment. The Seahawks likely would’ve had to offer a first round pick to better Arizona’s advances for Kevin Kolb (in hindsight, that would’ve been a catastrophic move). Jackson had familiarity with Darrell Bevell and Sidney Rice, he had a point to prove. It was a low-risk gamble. Is there another low-risk gamble to be had this year? 

Jackson didn’t do enough during the 2011 season to warrant any great faith for the long term. His deal is very modest – he will earn just $4m dollars in 2012. The Seahawks have the opportunity to address the situation with a lot more time and preparation in 2012 and add a player more capable of providing a logical bridge to the future. Even if the Seahawks were open to drafting a quarterback in round two or three this year, it makes absolute sense not to throw them to the wolves. Sure – Andy Dalton wasn’t a disaster as a rookie. Here’s a list of the quarterbacks taken in rounds two and three in the five year’s prior to the 2011 draft: 

2006 – Kellen Clemons, Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle 

2007 – Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards 

2008 – Chad Henne, Brian Brohm, Kevin O’Connell 

2009 – Pat White 

2010 – Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy 

In fact, in the last ten years only Drew Brees and Matt Schuab have become legitimate starters in the league having been drafted in the second or third round. Brees would’ve been a first round pick in the modern era, considering he was taken with the 32nd selection in 2001. While the 2012 group of quarterbacks aren’t directly related to the names above and therefore no more or less likely to succeed early, there’s no precedent here for finding quick starters in what we now refer to as ‘day two’ of the draft. Pete Carroll has been quite open about his shift in attitude towards quarterbacks starting early, but I don’t think he’s going to force the issue. 

I do, however, expect the Seahawks to still explore ways to upgrade the quarterback position and possibilities may arise during the free agency period. I don’t expect the team to make a big play for Peyton Manning and according to Scott Enyeart, there is no interest in Green Bay’s Matt Flynn. So where does that leave us? Let’s run through a few scenarios to find an option. It’s worth noting – by the way – that all of the following is pure speculation on my behalf to make a wider point. If any of the following does happen, it’ll be coincidental. Let’s refer to this as a ‘free agency’ mock draft. 

I think Peyton Manning will land in Arizona, Washington or Miami. The Cardinals have the edge due to the relationship between quarterback and coach (Manning and Ken Whisenhunt are friends), the possibility to recreate what the team had with Kurt Warner and the opportunity to compete quickly within the NFC West. Manning would see Arizona as a market he can work within – away from the pressures of playing in New York or having to compete with his brother in the NFC East for Washington. Miami could come into focus, but having failed to land Jim Harbaugh and Jeff Fisher in the last twelve months, what confidence does anyone have that they could pull off a deal for Manning? 

If Arizona lands Peyton, it would free-up Kevin Kolb – with the Cardinals using the option in his contract to get out of their commitment to the former Philadelphia Eagle. With Kolb now testing the market, he could be a realistic option for the Cleveland Browns. Tom Heckert – the GM in Cleveland – was part of the front office that drafted Kolb for the Eagles. He has experience working in a variation of the West Coast Offense with Andy Reid and as we’ve talked up all week – Cleveland may not have the opportunity to draft Robert Griffin III.  Although Kolb may be seen as ‘damaged goods’ at the moment, it’d be a modest low-risk move for the Browns with minimal investment – allowing them to attack the skill positions by drafting Trent Richardson and a receiver with two of their first three picks. They would still have the freedom to draft a quarterback later on if they so wished. 

This would leave Washington and Miami still potentially searching for a quarterback who can start in 2012. Although I wouldn’t agree with such a move, I’ve been projecting Ryan Tannehill to Washington in round one for a few weeks now. I have a lot of issues with Tannehill and think it’d be a foolish move, but he ticks a lot of the boxes Mike Shanahan looks for in a quarterback (better throwing out of the pocket, good on naked boot legs, strong enough arm, athletic). Having missed out on Jake Locker last year, will the Redskins risk going another year without making a splash? Without finding Shanny’s guy? I’m not so sure. 

So what about Miami? You’d expect Joe Philbin to show interest in Matt Flynn, although we have to acknowledge the Dolphins’ active pursuit of Kyle Orton before the 2011 season. That was a Jeff Ireland move – and he’s still part of the Miami franchise. They weren’t willing to bow to Denver’s demands at the time, but with Orton a free agent this year – there’s every chance they could reignite their interest. Flynn or Orton would be a difficult compromise for a franchise that looked to be at the heart of the Luck/RGIII battle for most of the season, but with three quarterbacks potentially off the board before they pick in the draft it might be the only realistic option. The Seahawks are still waiting to make a significant commitment to a quarterback in the Carroll/Schneider era, so are the Dolphins any more likely to search for a quick fix with a new coaching setup? And let’s not forget the performance of Matt Moore as the starter in 2011 – has he done enough to trump all other options for now? 

Flynn remains the intriguing one, mainly because there are two likely suitors in my opinion. Philbin/Miami is obvious, but nobody is really talking about the Green Bay connections in Oakland. Reggie McKenzie has cleaned house since his appointment as GM and will go about shaping the Raiders in his vision. Considering he was part of the Packers franchise from 1994 until the moment he accepted the position in Oakland, it seems likely he’s going to take some influence from the way things were done in Green Bay. With Greg Knapp back as the offensive coordinator, a west coast system seems likely. Yet McKenzie is faced with a difficult situation with no tools to work with. 

For starters, Oakland has no draft picks until the fifth round as things stand. Considering they lost Nnamdi Asomugha, Robert Gallery and Zach Miller in free agency, it’s likely they’ll get some compensation in the third or fourth round. However, it’s not ideal for a team needing to add talent and switch schemes going forward. What can McKenzie do to make a statement? Does he try to build around Carson Palmer, a player he has no working relationship with to date and no commitment towards? Or does he turn to Matt Flynn and try to sell him the idea of being the figure head of the Raiders rebuild? 

McKenzie could see the signing of Flynn as one of the few things he can control, something that will provide a tangible shift towards a new era. Palmer is a player he’s inherited – we have no idea what he truly sees in the former Bengal other than some lukewarm backing at his introductory press conference: “Now, bringing in Carson at the time the Raiders brought him in, to me, as a player, that’s a good move. I think he’s a good quarterback. Period.” There’s every chance he’ll bite his tongue and give Palmer the chance to succeed, but he’d also be risking his own success and long term future as a GM on a player he didn’t sign. So does he shuffle along, or get active? If they want Matt Flynn – or someone else – as their quarterback, it’s their prerogative to make that move and see what they can get for Palmer. Not much, would be the answer – given a disappointing 2011 comeback, 32nd birthday and a $12m salary in which $5m is guaranteed. 

Sometimes moving on alone is necessary, and moving Palmer for something even as miniscule as a late round pick would be cutting your losses and getting on with the job. It’d be painful for the Raiders fans and the team’s 2012 draft class considering the wasted first round pick, but if this team was truly committed to Palmer – they surely would’ve backed the man who made the trade? The appointment of McKenzie and subsequent removal of Hue Jackson as coach was almost an admittance of mistakes made in the midst of Al Davis’ passing. In trying to rebuild, all bets should be off for the new regime. 

So… Palmer in Seattle. Here we are again – with a real sense of deja-vu. While Seahawks fans will be forgiven for being underwhelmed at the prospect of Carson Palmer, for the price of a late round pick, would it not be an intriguing short-term move? Another case of making the best of the situation? To find someone a little more adept at leading a game winning drive in a tight contest? Someone who can get those extra 3-4 wins to put Seattle in contention for the playoffs again? In Jackson’s Oakland he was asked to be the difference for four quarters, in Seattle he’d merely need to be the difference in the fourth. 

Like I said, this is only a speculative piece. All of the scenarios mentioned here are just suggestions for what could happen in free agency. But it does show how the Seahawks could – theoretically – add a veteran quarterback to their roster who would arguably be deemed a superior bridge to the future than Tarvaris Jackson. Even if it’s not Palmer – you can make your own suggestions if you wish – I expect the Seahawks will do something in free agency to provide that extra competition they crave. It won’t necessarily be a blockbuster trade or the addition of a player like Manning (and we can debate the merits of that on another day), but I suspect something is going to happen. And there’s simply no getting away from the familiarity and mutual respect between coach and quarterback in this instance.