ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper published his first mock draft today with the Seahawks taking Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett with the 25th overall pick.

The interesting angle is – Jake Locker (QB, Washington) is still on the board.

It gets even more interesting when Kiper states:

“It’ll be asked, but my sources tell me the Seahawks prefer him to Washington’s Jake Locker — at least right now.”

You’ll have to be an ESPN insider to read the entire mock, but you can see more of what Kiper had to say by visiting Mike Sando’s NFC West Blog.

As we’ve discussed on this blog many times – Mallett wasn’t the ideal fit for the Jeremy Bates offense. Despite having the arm strength to thrive in the vertical passing game, Mallett does not do a good enough job on bootlegs and throwing on the run. His inability to set his feet and control his passes led to key interceptions against Alabama and Ohio State (Sugar Bowl) and turned what could’ve been a key-note season for Mallett and Arkansas into a year of what could’ve been.

Having said that – no quarterback in the 2011 class is capable of reading an offense like Mallett. His precise ability to go through reads and go to a third or fourth option stands out over Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker. You could argue he was even ahead of Andrew Luck in that sense.

The arm is a huge bonus and Mallett’s size and release – while sometimes having a slight wind-up motion – are big positives.

Of course at this stage information from teams can be deceptive. Pete Carroll has spoken glowingly of Locker in the past and he was the ideal fit for the Bates system. Now Bates has gone – do things change? Does Mallett become a more realistic proposition?

In Carroll’s end of season press conference today he cited the offensive scheme wouldn’t change going forward and again re-iterated the team’s desire to stick with the zone blocking scheme and have a mobile quarterback to enhance the run and utilise play action.

Would the Seahawks like either prospect enough to spend the #25 pick? The risk and cost is minimal at that stage to try and find a franchise prospect. If either busted it wouldn’t cripple the team.

Tim Tebow was drafted 25th overall by the Broncos last April and signed a deal worth $11.25m with $8.7m guaranteed. In comparison – Seattle signed Lawrence Jackson (drafted 28th overall) to a $11.25m deal with $6.1m in guarantees in 2008. The team was able to succesfully trade him two years later.

Taking a gamble on a quarterback at #25 won’t hurt the team as much as taking one in the top ten should the pick not work out. This could potentially lend favor to a guy like Mallett who has raised some character and work ethic concerns, but who also has a large amount of physical talent.

I was recently asked about Indiana wide receiver Tandon Doss – who was among the lesser known junior’s to declare for the 2011 draft. Todd McShay this week gave him a second round grade and declared that Doss was one of the most under rated prospects this year.

My own knowledge of Doss is limited – I saw Indiana once this year in a game against Northwestern where he failed to stand out. Thanks to Aaron Aloysius I’ve been able to locate tape of Doss when the Hoosiers faced Michigan in 2009.

Jeremy Bates was today fired as the Seahawks offensive coordinator. It continues a trend of inconsistency for Seattle ever since Mike Holmgren’s departure in 2009. Since then, the team has had three different offensive schemes (Holmgren, Knapp and Bates). It will be now become four.

This could change a lot with regard to the draft based on who is signed as a replacement. Bates’ system relied a lot on mobility and down field passing. You could easily look at prospects such as Jake Locker and make the scheme connection.

Other coordinators could make significant changes that will impact the kind of prospect Seattle eventually looks for at the position.

It may also change the philosophy at other positions – such as the offensive line and receivers. The line scheme has been in flux ever since Alex Gibbs’ departure – never really establishing whether it was a man or zone system. The successor at coordinator needs to find a more focused route and this could determine what kind of prospects to look at in the draft.

Likewise the Seahawks spent considerable time looking at tall, physical receivers who can stretch the field like Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson. Mike Williams – another big target – has had success in this system. Will the focus move away from those types of prospect now?

I’ll look at this in greater detail later today.

***Update***

The Seahawks have appointed Tom Cable as an assistant head coach and offensive line coach. They are yet to appoint an offensive coordinator. Links to Josh McDaniels ended when he signed for St. Louis.

Cable’s arrival should maintain any zone blocking plans. He’s a former protege of Alex Gibbs when the two worked in Atlanta. Oakland used the ZBS with bigger lineman during Cable’s two-year stint as head coach of the Raiders.

It doesn’t solve many mysteries with regards the draft. It’s unclear whether Seattle would consider a prospect like Rodney Hudson (OG, Florida) who’s an ideal fit for the ZBS but weighs only around 290lbs.

Last week I published some tape featuring every play that Jimmy Smith impacted when Colorado faced Oklahoma. I wanted to lend some credence as to why I think Smith is primed for a huge rise up many draft boards and mocks come the combine.

I’ve added another video today – this time against Blaine Gabbert and Missouri. As against the Sooners – I think it’s telling how little Missouri target Smith. You can check out the footage below.

I’ve also included tape of Jonathan Baldwin (who I have going to Seattle in my latest mock) when Pittsburgh took on West Virginia last year. It’s worth watching until the end for a downfield touchdown reception.

The Dallas Cowboys traded with Seattle to draft cornerback Mike Jenkins at #25 in 2008

The Seahawks own the 25th overal pick in the 2011 draft following yesterday’s defeat to Chicago in the playoffs. 

Seattle has never drafted anyone with the #25 pick in the history of the franchise although they previously had the option on two separate occasions: 

– In 1985 they traded the 25th overall pick to Cincinnati for center Blair Bush. The Texan played 82 games for the Seahawks in a six-year spell before moving to Green Bay.  

– In 2008 Seattle traded down with Dallas and chose defensive end Lawrence Jackson with the 28th overall pick. Jackson has since been traded to the Detroit Lions and was former GM Tim Ruskell’s penultimate first round pick before departing. 

The closest Seattle has picked in that range was in 2005 when they moved from #23 to #26 after a trade with Oakland. The Seahawks took current starting center Chris Spencer from Ole Miss. 

Other picks made by the team in the 20-29 range are as follows: 

1984 Terry Taylor (CB, Southern Illinois) – 22nd overall 

1988 Brian Bosworth (LB, Oklahoma) – 22nd overall 

1996 Pete Kendall (OT, Boston College) – 21st overall 

1999 Lamar King (DE, Saginaw Valley State) – 22nd overall 

2000 Chris McIntosh (OT, Wisconsin) – 22nd overall 

2002 Jerramy Stevens (TE, Washington) – 28th overall 

2008 Lawrence Jackson (DE, USC) – 28th overall 

Since 1990 four Pro-Bowl players have been drafted 25th overall. They are Ted Washington (a defensive tackle drafted in 1991 by the 49ers), Jermane Mayberry (an offensive lineman drafted in 1996 by the Eagles), Jon Beason (a linebacker drafted in 2007 by the Panthers) and Mike Jenkins (a cornerback drafted in 2008 by Dallas). 

Jenkins, of course, was the player taken by the Cowboys following the trade that led to Seattle drafting Lawrence Jackson. 

In that same time frame cornerbacks have been the most popular selection – four have been taken since 1990. Defensive tackles, quarterbacks andwide receivers have been selected three times. The rest of the picks are made up of running backs (2), defensive ends (2), a linebacker and a strong safety. 

Denver has drafted two quarterbacks since 1990 – Tommy Maddox (UCLA, 1992) and Tim Tebow (Florida, 2010). The other quarterback drafted was Jason Campbell (Auburn, 2005). 

The last five players drafted 25th overall are as follows: 

2010– Tim Tebow (QB, Denver) 

2009– Vontae Davis (CB, Miami) 

2008 – Mike Jenkins (CB, Dallas) 

2007– Jon Beason (LB, Carolina) 

2006– Santonio Holmes (WR, Pittsburgh) 

The 25th overall pick is worth 720 points according to the trade value chart. The Seahawks also own the 57th pick in round two which is worth 330 points. If you combine the two picks, they hold the same chart value as the 15th overall pick. 

Seattle traded it’s third round pick to San Diego for Charlie Whitehurst. However, they acquired the second pick in the fourth round (98th overall) from New England for Deion Branch. The Seahawks traded the 121st selection to Buffalo for Marshawn Lynch. 

Cornerback Josh Wilson only started nine of a needed ten games to qualify for a fourth round pick in the trade with Baltimore. Instead the Seahawks own 153rd and 154th picks in round five. 

Any picks after round three will drop due to the compensatory selections that will be added once they’ve been determined. 

In round six the team owns the 168th pick (from Detroit in the Lawrence Jackson deal) but traded the 185th pick to San Francisco for Ketwan Balmer. It’s unclear if the team has a seventh round pick following undisclosed trades for Stacy Andrews, Tyler Polumbus and Seneca Wallace.

Here are the picks in full including the trade chart value: 

1st round (25th overall) – 720 points 

2nd round (57th overall) – 330 points 

4th round (98th overall) – 108 points 

5th round (153rd & 154th overall) – 30.2 points & 29.8 points 

6th round (168th overall)  – 24.2 points 

7th round to be confirmed (217th overall) – 4.6 points 

To see the trade value chart in full click here. It needs to be acknowledged that the chart is widely considered to be outdated and based on the evidence of recent trades (for example – Jacksonville moving from #26 to #8 in 2008) deals are not restricted to the points value given.

Following defeat to the Chicago Bears in the Divisional Playoffs, the Seahawks will own the 25th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.

Seattle last owned the 25th overall pick in 2008, when it traded down with Dallas before drafting Lawrence Jackson.

Here are the players taken with the 25th selection in the last six NFL drafts:

2010– Tim Tebow (QB, Denver)

2009– Vontae Davis (CB, Miami)

2008 – Mike Jenkins (CB, Dallas)

2007– Jon Beason (LB, Carolina)

2006– Santionio Holmes (WR, Pittsburgh)

2005 – Jason Campbell (QB, Washington)

Yesterday the deadline passed for underclassmen to declare, so we know what prospects will be available and the range Seattle will be based. I’ve since updated the mock draft to represent team order and remove any prospects who opted to stay in school.

You can view the mock draft by clicking here or selecting ‘mock draft’ from the title bar.

Will the Panthers stand by quarterback Jimmy Clausen?

For the last two years there’s been no great mystery over who would be taken first overall in the NFL Draft.

In 2009 the 0-16 Detroit Lions had a new coach and a need for new direction – which clearly meant finding a franchise quarterback. When Sam Bradford made the decision to return to Oklahoma it seemed likely that Georgia’s Matt Stafford would be taken first overall.

Despite some members of the Detroit media and the quite a number of Lions fans suggesting an offensive tackle (Jason Smith) or even a linebacker (Aaron Curry) could be the choice – Stafford was the favorite in January and unsurprisingly the forecast came true on draft day.

For most of the 2009 college football season it seemed like defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh would be the hot tip to go #1. It was a regular projection among mock drafts with little challenge from people like Sam Bradford – who had missed almost the entire season with a shoulder injury.

However as the process continued and we got closer to the combine – Bradford re-gained momentum and with St. Louis as desperate for a quarterback as Detroit the previous year there were no surprises when April came.

The 2011 draft would have followed an even more predictable path had Andrew Luck declared. Instead, there’s no real answer to what the Carolina Panthers will do on April 28th.

It’s reminiscent of the 2008 event when Miami had the #1 pick. For a long time people had Glenn Dorsey (DT) pinned down as the first selection, but concerns about his ability to stay healthy and his fit in the 4-3 scheme (Miami were switching to a 3-4) dropped him out of contention. The Dolphins needed a quarterback so Matt Ryan was a distinct possibility. Darren McFadden’s blistering 40-yard dash at the combine made people wonder if he could go first overall.

By the time we got closer to the event it appeared to come down to Ryan and the two Long’s – Jake and Chris. The Dolphins opted for Jake – an offensive lineman from Michigan. The defensive end (Chris) from Virginia went second overall to St. Louis leaving Atlanta with the quarterback.

Things may be unclear for a while in 2011 too.

I contacted a knowledgeable Panthers fan called Daniel Elliott to get a status check on things at this early stage. With the deadline tomorrow for underclassmen to declare – we’re pretty sure who the candidates should be.

Obviously Carolina spent a 2nd round pick on Jimmy Clausen last year – although he endured a rough first season in the league as the Panthers slumped to a 2-14 record. I asked Daniel if quarterback was still potentially an option:

“I do believe the door should be open at QB.  As much as I loathe Clausen’s play style, I think he has the potential to become a decent back up quarterback to poor starter. I don’t know exactly how the Panthers value him at this time but Marty Hurney (the GM; retained through the coaching change) did invest a 2nd rounder in him, the highest pick the Panthers have spent on a quarterback in over a decade. 

Judging from Ron Rivera’s introductory press conference it sounds like they’re being realistic about the situation – they know he was terrible but they also excuse it a bit because he was playing for a lame duck coach on a gutted roster – which is about as much as I can ask for as a fan.”

My reaction to his comments on Clausen is that the plan will be to bring in some sort of veteran competition, with the likely outcome being that the competition will win out while Clausen returns to the bench temporarily with his long term future in the organization to be determined at a later date.”

This seems logical. I’ve previously continued to mock a quarterback (either Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton) to the Panthers with the #1 pick. I didn’t grade Clausen highly last year and have little confidence in is ability to become a long term starter in the NFL. However as Daniel points out – the GM that drafted him has maintained his position despite the disastrous drop in 2010.

“Their scouting department is apparently big on film and on-field production in college over tools and combine performances so I don’t know if they’re as high on Gabbert (or Locker) as some other teams would be. I don’t see Cam Newton as a possibility at all.  His merits as a possible NFL QB aside, the Panthers have avoided players with anything resembling character questions ever since the Rae Carruth and Fred Lane debacles. 

To give you a better idea of what they’re looking for, in the entirety of John Fox’s tenure the Panthers were linked with just 1 top tier QB prospect in a trade up strategy or “if he fell” scenario – Matt Ryan. Now, is it possible Gabbert becomes that guy for them?  I would say yes, but it’s very a remote chance. I think they wanted a home run, thought they had it with Luck and now that they don’t, they’re not sure what to do.”

So what about the other options then? A lot of people are talking up Nick Fairley after a strong BCS Championship performance that was aided by a suspect Oregon scheme that allowed him to go unblocked on many plays. Da’Quan Bowers enjoyed a strong year for Clemson while A.J. Green is also fancied as a weapon on offense. Here’s Daniel’s take:

“Bowers is an option to play across from Charles Johnson and when added to a stable of Greg Hardy (raw, but flashes of big potential) and Everette Brown (kind of the DE version of Clausen…but still some production) could bring back the dominant End play we had with Peppers and Rucker.  With that said, I live in ACC country near Bowers and he’s not Julius Peppers or Mario Williams. I wouldn’t focus much on the scheme flexibility thing. My interpretation of Rivera’s PC is that we’re very much sticking with the 4-3 but will throw in a couple of 3 down lineman looks when the time calls for it. Not that it changes much since I think Bowers projects best as a 4-3 end.

Despite this, I do think the favorite for now is Nick Fairley, hype or not. There was a report about a month ago that we had him targeted at the top of the draft before the Luck train really started rolling and the media started speculating he’d declare.”

Riding a NC hype train into the draft can work sometimes, as Vince Young can attest.  How psyched I am about this being a possibility? Well, I think it’s safe to say nothing is going to excite me as much as thinking we’re getting a possible franchise QB.  However, the only position on the team as weak as QB is DT.  Honestly, the team could release everyone from that spot tomorrow and I wouldn’t bat an eyelash (the only guy who I think has any worth is Derek Landri, and that’s solely in a back-up/rotation role).”

I’m aware of Fairley’s flaws as a player – you’re probably getting a 1-gap guy, tires easily, possible leverage issues, amongst other things but on the other hand, the number of guys with the ability to bring pressure up the middle and make game changing plays from that spot is not very high.  I think he’s going to be in the running all the way up until draft day unless the aforementioned character conscious front office are scared off by interviews with him or something that comes up in a background check.”

The AJ Green option is actually quite popular amongst the fanbase.  He’s a local product (Summerville, SC) and this is the organization that traded the #33 pick for Armanti Edwards.”

The uncertainty over what Carolina’s plans may be with the #1 pick pretty much defines how the 2011 draft may be reviewed as we move forward. A new CBA appears to be no closer, meaning when the Panthers officially are on the clock there may not have been a free agency period and therefore no trades.

With this inability for teams to fill needs before the draft – it may make the event even more unpredictable than ever before.

While we can try to project what Carolina will do with the #1 pick – as with most of the draft and the possibility of a lockout – it’s a complete mystery.

Andrew Perloff at SI.com published a top-24 projection which excludes the playoff teams. He has Blaine Gabbert going first overall to Carolina – something that shouldn’t be ruled out. Perloff: “Quarterbacks have gone No. 1 overall eight out of the past 10 years. CAA, which represents Gabbert, has represented seven of the past eight overall No. 1 picks. Despite playing in a spread offense at Missouri, Gabbert is the top-rated quarterback and is the kind of player Carolina could sell to its fans.”

Walter Cherepinsky has a four round mock draft available at WalterFootball.com. Brandon Harris is Seattle’s choice in round one, followed by Rodney Hudson with the 57th pick. Both are solid projections.

Chad Reuter and Rob Rang have updated mocks on CBS Sportsline. Reuter throws a new name into the ring for Seattle – Corey Liuget a defensive tackle from Illinois. Reuter: “His Texas Bowl performance should convince scouts to bring his strength and quickness on board early in the draft.”

Larry McDaniel Jr at Pro Prospects has the Seahawks taking an old Pete Carroll favorite – Tyron Smith (OT, USC). In my opinion, Smith is undoubtedly the best offensive lineman available in this class and due to the premium nature of the position should secure a place in the top-15 picks – possibly even the top ten. I’m not convinced Seattle will draft a right tackle this early (and Jimmy Smith is available here – you know what I think of him) – but it’s another name to discuss nonetheless.

NE Patriots Draft is a team related draft blog I frequently visit for reference. It’s a great site worth checking out and there’s some very interesting picks here. The Seahawks take Cameron Heyward (DE, Ohio State) at #25. I’m not convinced he’s a great scheme fit because he’d have to play the 5-technique role used by Red Bryant. He gives up considerable size to RB but also hasn’t proven to be a consistent pass rush threat during the last two years to compensate.

SideLion Report is another team draft site worth visiting. The Seahawks take Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue) – someone I wouldn’t rule out if the team is prepared to draft a LEO rusher in the first round.

I’ll be updating my own mock draft after the deadline passes for underclassmen to declare on Saturday with some substantial changes so stay tuned for that.

If you want to watch game tape on some of the top prospects available in the 2011 NFL Draft, I’d strongly recommend adding Aaron Aloysius’ YouTube page to your favorites list.

Aaron writes for the equally recommended Draft Breakdown website. He’s compiled footage of a number of prospects in individual games – and he doesn’t edit out the bad bits either.

I’ve added Aaron’s tape of Jimmy Smith vs Oklahoma below. The Sooners offense is a production machine through the air so it’s an interesting match-up. Personally, I think Smith is a top-10 talent coming out of Colorado. In the footage you can see his ability to stick with the receiver in man but also flash an incredible closing burst when in zone. He’s a sure tackler – but needs to improve shedding blocks.

There’s one particularly telling play where he jams star receiver Ryan Broyles at the POA forcing an in-completion.

There aren’t many prospects I rate higher than Smith. I don’t like to make outrageous comparisons to NFL stars but he’s certainly got a similar skill set and size/speed combo to Nnamdi Asomugha. I don’t say that lightly but certainly I think the potential is there for Smith to become one of the top NFL cornerbacks.

I suspect he will run a very quick forty yard dash at the combine which could propel his stock way up the board. Just an exciting player to watch and one that I think could be set for big things.