Back in 2022 I wrote an article discussing why explosive traits matter. It explained that the NFL’s top offensive linemen mostly had similar physical characteristics based around explosive testing (measured by the vertical and broad jumps plus bench press). This allowed us to make a series of projections/predictions for player draft range and future NFL success.
Reflecting on that article two-and-a-half years later is quite interesting, especially after watching Cam Jurgens demolishing Washington’s defensive line during Thursday Night Football. I’d recommend reading it because it highlights why explosive testing has been a strong indicator and projector for the next level.
The piece made the following projections based on the testing results of the 2022 draft class:
Don’t be surprised if players like Ikem Ekwonu and Charles Cross don’t live up to their lofty media expectations and the names above outshine them in terms of NFL careers.
Ekwonu ran a good forty (4.93) and as we’ve discovered — that might be more indicative than we think. He ran a 1.72 10-yard split. However, nothing else about his profile stands out. He’s a 2.90 TEF tester which is good not great. His short shuttle was only a 4.73. For me he’s best served kicking into guard, as Zack Martin did. They have similar testing results. I think Ekwonu can be a terrific guard.
Cross also ran a good forty (4.95) but he’s only a 2.84 TEF tester and thus, not an explosive player. He ran a 4.61 short shuttle and a 1.75 split. The simple fact is that if he succeeds in the NFL we’ll be talking about him as another outlier.
This isn’t unfair. Ekwonu has improved slightly this year, with Carolina’s O-line generally upgrading. However he’s mostly struggled at tackle and has always looked better suited to kick inside.
Cross is clearly an athlete as shown by his 4.95 forty yard dash but three years into his career he still lacks great power and strength to handle blockers off the edge. He gets favourable reviews by Seahawks fans and media but he only has three games this season with a PFF grade of 75 or higher. He’s far from a bad player but he isn’t a great player either. I projected him as a second round grade who deserved to go between 20-40 in the 2022 class and I still think that’s fair. He looked like a player in college who had great feet and mobility but lacked the explosive traits to be an elite tackle.
Zion Johnson has every chance to go in the same range as Alijah Vera-Tucker (#14 overall) and could end up being one of the best players to emerge from this draft
Johnson was taken 17th overall by the Chargers. He hasn’t been a spectacular player but neither has he been a liability. He hasn’t emerged as one of the better players from the class but the draft range projection was accurate and there’s benefit in having a non-liability interior lineman with a cap hit of $1.3m this year and $2.5m next year. I suspect he’ll continue to develop in the Jim Harbaugh system.
Cole Strange, Cam Jurgens and Zach Tom have every chance to excel irrespective of where they are taken
Tom is one of the established steals of the 2022 draft, while Jurgens is starting to shine as Jason Kelce’s replacement in Philadelphia. Strange wasn’t expected to be a first round pick but was taken 29th overall by Bill Belichick — who clearly also felt he had a chance to be really good. He has been absent this season through injury. It’s difficult to read this back today — knowing how much we talked-up Jurgens and Tom pre-draft and seeing how useful they’d be for Seattle these days.
Tyler Linderbaum might not fit every scheme due to his size but he has the physical makeup of a top performing center
This played out as expected.
Trevor Penning — with his explosive testing and fast forty — has every chance to go in the top-10 and could easily go before Charles Cross, potentially as the third lineman off the board (Carolina at #6?) because his testing results match the best OT’s in the league
This didn’t prove to be the case, although his draft range (19th overall) was still higher than some were projecting. This was the weakest projection, though. I think if it wasn’t for Penning’s rashness and faux ‘bully’ playing style he likely would’ve gone earlier and it wasn’t so much his tape or testing that saw him last to #19.
If Bernhard Raimann wasn’t a 25-year-old rookie with short arms he’d likely be a very, very high pick — but he needs a major technical re-tool and the age/length works against him
Raimann was a third round pick and this year has an 82.5 PFF grade and has become an established NFL blocker.
Abraham Lucas deserves a lot more attention given he tests well across the board
When healthy, Lucas completely backed up this sentiment.
It’s important to note that the way I graded these players wasn’t purely down to testing. Extensive tape study played a part and you always have to marry testing and tape, potential/upside and college accomplishment. I was very high on Jurgens, Tom, Lucas and Linderbaum. Regulars will vouch for that. I gave Jurgens, Lucas and Linderbaum ‘would take in round one’ grades, with Tom slotted in round two based purely on non-ideal measurables (his tape and testing marks were excellent). Raimann was also graded in round two, with Johnson firmly in round one.
The piece from 2022 also acknowledged who I thought was being overrated. Kenyon Green was taken 15th overall by the Houston Texans. I had him graded in round four. He has been a disastrous pick. Daniel Faalele was being discussed as a potential top-50 pick. I had him in round four, the range where he was eventually taken. I errored by suggesting Tyler Smith wouldn’t go as early as some think — he was the 24th overall pick and has had a decent start to his career.
The point of all this is to say it isn’t always 4D chess to identify good offensive linemen. The article showed the common traits successful linemen have. When you combine testing with tape study you can generally work out who will have a decent shot at success.
You will always make mistakes, I certainly have, and it’s very easy to GM from a keyboard or in front of a TV. Nobody expects a team to have a flawless record drafting for any position. Yet it’s also hard to understand why the Seahawks have struggled so much both in drafting and developing linemen. In 2020 I graded Robert Hunt in round two — he’s been decent. I also had Damien Lewis graded in round two. I think he’s shown in Carolina that he’s far from a bad player — I believe shifting him from right guard (where he excelled as a rookie) to the left to accommodate Gabe Jackson stunted his development and was a missed opportunity.
In 2021, Landon Dickerson was one of only two offensive linemen I gave a first round grade to (the other being Penei Sewell). I gave second round grades to Creed Humphrey, Quinn Meinerz and Josh Myers. That was the year they traded their first rounder to the Jets for Jamal Adams — a pick that ended up being Christian Darrisaw (second round grade) — and used their second rounder on Dee Eskridge. I gave Eskridge a third round grade and they took him 56th overall. They could’ve had any of Humphrey, Meinerz or Myers instead.
It’s long since been revealed that they felt they needed ‘juice’ on defense, thus the Adams trade. Not to mention Russell Wilson’s public appeal for ‘stars’ to be added at the Pro Bowl. Missing out on any significant pass rusher, while losing Jadeveon Clowney, also likely played a part in the Adams acquisition. Yet it robbed the Seahawks of an opportunity to invest in their O-line — something that felt critical for the style of football they said they wanted to play.
Not only did the picks used on Adams prevent them from drafting good linemen in 2021, it also cost them a chance to add players in free agency. Joe Thuney signed a $16m a year contract with the Chiefs in March that year. In August, the Seahawks were obliged to give Adams $17.5m a year after spending so much to acquire him. Nothing sums the calamity of this period of Seahawks football up better than this.
At the time Patrick Mahomes only had one Super Bowl ring — the same as Russell Wilson, who was considered to be in his prime. The Seahawks could’ve easily used the Adams money to sign Thuney, breaking the market to outbid the Chiefs. They couldn’t because after paying a fortune in picks for Adams, they were handcuffed to him (even as some of us pleaded with them to move on after a year, including during multiple 710 radio hits — which I’m sure went down a storm).
They also could’ve drafted other linemen in 2021 to pair with Thuney — as the Chiefs did with Creed Humphrey — making their line a major strength in what could’ve been a transformational off-season. Instead, they traded for Jackson, moved Lewis and started Brandon Shell at right tackle.
Hindsight’s a wonderful thing of course — but you can’t help but wonder what would’ve happened for Wilson, Pete Carroll and the Seahawks if they’d never traded for Adams, had signed Thuney, drafted Humphrey and rebuilt their line as a core identity to pair with Wilson. A year later in 2022, Wilson was moved to Denver. Even if that was still destined to happen, the rebuilt line would’ve positioned the Seahawks to be strong in future seasons.
The opportunity was there and they didn’t take it.
I suspect the Seahawks are facing an upcoming off-season where they might be relying on the draft again to bolster the O-line. We saw how risky this can be with the Christian Haynes pick — it’s already looking like he could be a whiff. Their challenging cap situation, as emphasised by Curtis Allen’s brilliant breakdown this week (check it out here) highlights the inability they’ll have to splurge on veteran linemen without making huge and potentially unpopular decisions. It’s incredibly frustrating that the Seahawks are tied to so many bad contracts, are carrying so much dead money and face a yearly situation where they have to move things around, despite not having to pay any legit elite players. This is why John Schneider is quite rightly facing more criticism than he has at any point previously in his tenure and why the next off-season could end up being a critical one for the team and the GM.
If it is to be a reliance on the draft, we already have a lot of testing data for Iowa center Logan Jones. Combined with the rapid improvements he’s shown on tape, there’s a very real prospect he will end up being an excellent NFL center and it’s why I currently grade him as a player I would consider in round one. He’ll be locked into a top-50 placing the rest of the way. I’m intrigued to see Jake Majors’ testing results, given his four-star background, plus Tyler Booker’s as a former five-star recruit. There are intriguing options and more will emerge during the Senior Bowl and combine week. With today’s news that Connor Williams is retiring, the Seahawks will again be looking for yet another center next year. They need to draft someone for the long term and/or add a veteran presence like Ryan Kelly (a pending free agent). No more chopping and changing annually.
Frankly, I’m ready to accept a process driven approach where the 2025 off-season is viewed as the first year of the next era, rather than the latest attempt to try and ‘contend’ when I don’t think this team is anywhere near as close as they think (or at least thought a few months ago). If that means taking a year to build the line, sacrificing salary and quality at some positions, to get onto the right path for success — that will be a better plan than plodding along hoping a nudge or a nurdle here or there will lead you to glory. It won’t.
No more kicking the can down the road with contracts, totting up the dead money. No more clinging on to previous mistakes. A fresh start, with the trenches at the heart of everything. That’s where this team needs to be built.
The first step should be to create the resource to invest heavily in the offensive line — both with veterans and picks. And go from there.
