It’s as simple as this — the top NFL linemen are explosive athletes
A day on Twitter doesn’t go by without someone referencing ‘RAS’ — relative athletic score. Personally I don’t think a relative score matters. It’s useful for the absolute best, most complete testers to highlight their spectacular profiles. Apart from that, teams are not looking for an overall score for a prospect.
Specific tests matter for certain positions.
The Seahawks under Carroll and Schneider, for example, have very defined testing marks (and there’s cross-over to other teams). For example, virtually every tight end they’ve signed, drafted or traded for has excelled in the agility testing. This aligns with the best TE’s in the league excelling in the short shuttle and three cone. Their running backs all match a size/traits/style profile. With offensive linemen they’ve often focused on explosive traits.
With the O-liners, the explosive testing focus shouldn’t be surprising. If you are facing off against an opponent, 1v1, being more explosive is clearly going to give you an advantage. Explosion is defined by lower body power — highlighted by the vertical jump and broad jump, plus the bench press.
The bench press isn’t an ideal test to include here because it’s laughably out of place. It’s basically cardio for offensive linemen over 300lbs. The powerball toss or a one-rep max would be a better test. This is all we have though. Hopefully the league will get into 2022 soon and start doing what they already do at SPARQ.
The reason we established TEF (Trench Explosion Formula) was to try and discover trends within Seattle’s O-line picks and then identify potential draft selections. It’s been incredibly effective and useful over the years in that regard.
For a full breakdown of what the formula is and why we use it, click here. Essentially, any prospect scoring 3.00 or higher is an explosive athlete.
Here’s the formula we use:
1. Vertical ÷ 31
2. Broad ÷ 9, then cube the result
3. Bench ÷ 27
4. Results added together = TEF
It’s also helped us understand that this isn’t just a Seahawks thing. The league is focusing on explosive traits when it comes to offensive linemen. Some of the more head-scratching picks in recent years can be explained away by explosive testing results.
But is it the right thing to do?
For the most part — yes. The results, to be fair, are clear. The best offensive linemen in the NFL are typically explosive athletes.
Before we delve into this further let’s clarify a couple of things. Explosive testing is not a guarantee of success. There are plenty of explosive testers who amount to nothing in the NFL. The point is not to argue explosive traits equal a good player. The point is simply to highlight that a lot of the top offensive linemen are explosive, the league focuses a lot on explosive traits and the chances are the best offensive linemen from this class will come from the most explosive testers.
It’s also important to note that one of the most successful offensive linemen in recent years — David Bakhtiari — is not an explosive tester (2.68 TEF score). Bakhtiari didn’t test well in anything. It’s not a death sentence for your career. However, as we’ll see in a moment, he is an outlier. And you can’t use one big-time outlier to promote other bad testers. An outlier is an outlier.
So while some of the poorer TEF testers could well prove to be brilliant NFL players — we should at least acknowledge what the results say. Players like Bakhtiari are not common in the modern NFL.
I have done a couple of things for this article. I looked at the top-graded offensive linemen per PFF in the league and tallied their explosive testing results. I also collected their short shuttle, forty and 10-yard split times to see if there was any correlation or consistency with those marks too.
Let’s start with the top ranked offensive tackles. The first number is their TEF score. The second number is their short shuttle. The third number is their forty time. The fourth number is the 10-yard split.
Trent Williams
TEF — 3.11
SS — 4.63
40 — 4.88
10 — 1.70
Tyron Smith
TEF — 3.11
SS — 4.68
40 — 4.93
10 — 1.69
Jordan Mailata
N/A
Andrew Whitworth
TEF — 3.14
SS — 4.83
40 — 5.17
10 — 1.83
Kolton Miller
TEF — 3.31
SS — 4.49
40 — 4.95
10 — 1.67
Tristan Wirfs
TEF — 3.47
SS — 4.68
40 — 4.85
10 — 1.72
Ryan Ramczyk
TEF — N/A
SS — 4.82
40 — N/A
10 — N/A
Rashawn Slater
TEF — 3.40
SS — 4.45
40 — 4.88
10 — 1.68
Rob Havenstein
TEF — 2.36
SS — 4.87
40 — 5.46
10 — 1.88
Lane Johnson
TEF — 3.44
SS — 4.52
40 — 4.72
10 — 1.68
Elgton Jenkins
TEF — 3.01
SS — 4.62
40 — 5.10
10 — 1.78
Charles Leno Jr
TEF — 2.71
SS — 4.40
40 — 5.25
10 — 1.81
Braden Smith
TEF — 3.52
SS — 4.77
40 — 5.22
10 — 1.79
Donovan Smith
TEF — 3.02
SS — 4.79
40 — 5.01
10 — 1.82
La’el Collins
TEF — 2.65
SS — 4.63
40 — 5.12
10 — 1.87
Of the top-15 graded offensive tackles in the NFL in 2021, only three failed to score a 3.00 in TEF (Charles Leno Jr, Rob Havenstein and La’el Collins). We don’t have testing results for Ryan Ramczyk or Jordan Mailata.
The average TEF score for the other 10 players is 3.25. Even if you include the three non-explosive scores — including Havenstein’s miserable 2.36 — the average TEF score is still 3.12. If you want to put in Bakhtiari’s 2.68 score too — the average only drops to 3.10.
The following players not included in PFF’s list also tested above 3.00 in TEF:
Garet Bolles
TEF — 3.07
SS — 4.55
40 — 4.95
10 — 1.71
Terron Armstead
TEF — 3.38
SS — 4.72
40 — 4.71
10 — 1.68
Taylor Lewan
TEF — 3.33
SS — 4.49
40 — 4.85
10 — 1.71
It’s easy to build an argument that among the best performing offensive linemen in the NFL currently, generally speaking they are not just explosive testers — but they are on average scoring well above the 3.00 mark.
People like Josh Norris have argued online for some years that short shuttle times are the determining factor for successful offensive linemen. The results are far less consistent here though.
I would argue a really impressive short shuttle time would be anything in the 4.5’s or faster. When you look at the list of top-graded offensive tackles from 2021, the average short shuttle time is a 4.65.
There are some really good marks such as Rashawn Slater’s 4.45, Charles Leno Jr’s 4.40 and Kolton Miller’s 4.49. Yet the best tackles in the NFL are generally not running ‘great’ short shuttles. Many of them are, instead, impressive explosive testers.
Leno Jr’s 4.40 could perhaps be used as an argument to explain why he personally has succeeded. He appears unique in that regard though — he isn’t explosive but he is a fantastic agility tester.
Bakhtiari, for example, only ran a 4.74 shuttle to go with his 2.68 TEF score.
What is perhaps surprising is how the forty times are consistently good among the top offensive tackles. The average is a 4.98 — even with Havenstein’s 5.46 included.
It’s perhaps indicative that explosive testing plus the athleticism that comes with a top forty time is something to pay attention to at tackle.
That’s hardly a major revelation is it? The NFL is a battle between the best athletes in the world and unsurprisingly, the especially athletic players are succeeding.
Looking at the 10-yard splits, a lot of the top tackles run in the 1.68-1.72 range. The average time of the names listed above is a 1.73. Take out Rob Havenstein’s ‘outlier’ performance and it drops to a 1.72.
Finally on tackles, if we go back nearly a decade there are some helpful examples. Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel went #1 and #2 in the 2013 draft. Fisher was a 3.16 TEF tester while Joeckel was only a 2.86. The explosive player succeeded, the non-explosive player flopped.
More recently, Mike McGlinchey has been a fairly disappointing top-10 pick as a non-explosive tester (2.73). However — Jake Matthews (2.79) and Jack Conklin (2.76) have had good careers despite not being explosive testers.
Now let’s look at PFF’s top performing guards:
Joel Bitonio
TEF — 3.02
SS — 4.44
40 — 4.97
10 — 1.78
Zack Martin
TEF — 2.92
SS — 4.59
40 — N/A
10 — N/A
Michael Onwenu
N/A
Shaq Mason
TEF — 3.01
SS — 4.65
40 — 4.99
10 — 1.75
Wyatt Teller
TEF — 3.22
SS — 4.84
40 — 5.24
10 — 1.85
Chris Lindstrom
TEF — 3.18
SS — 4.54
40 — 4.91
10 — 1.68
Ali Marpet
TEF — 3.09
SS — 4.47
40 — 4.98
10 — 1.71
Joe Thuney
TEF — 3.01
SS — 4.54
40 — 4.95
10 — 1.71
Let’s also include the player many believe to be the best guard in the NFL, plus a highly drafted (and highly rated) player from the 2021 class:
Quenton Nelson
TEF — 3.07
SS — 4.62
40 — N/A
10 — N/A
Alijah Vera-Tucker
TEF — 3.31
SS — 4.63
40 — 5.13
10 — 1.77
The average TEF score for this group is 3.09. Only one player — Zack Martin — scored below a 3.00 and he’s not exactly a mile away at 2.92.
Now let’s do the same thing with the short shuttle times. The average time is a 4.59 — hardly a notable average compared to what we see with the explosive testing.
The average forty time is a 5.02. It’s something we don’t really talk about much because linemen don’t have to run 40 yards very often. Yet the top performers at guard run well in the forty and they’re explosive.
The average 10-yard split is a 1.75 — slower than the tackles.
There is one big TEF outlier at guard. Brandon Scherff, one of the best players in recent years, only scored a 2.87. Again — not being an explosive tester doesn’t mean you’re destined to fail. It’s pretty clear though that the best performing guards and tackles in the NFL typically are explosive athletes.
Finally, let’s look at PFF’s three highest rated centers:
Creed Humphrey
TEF — 3.25
SS — 4.49
40 — 5.11
10 — 1.71
Corey Linsley
TEF — 3.18
SS — 4.53
40 — 5.03
10 — 1.78
Jason Kelce
TEF — 3.00 (proj)
SS — 4.14
40 — 4.89
10 — 1.70
And here are four other noteworthy names:
J.C. Tretter
TEF — 3.05
SS — 4.69
40 — 5.09
10 — 1.75
Frank Ragnow
TEF — 3.29
SS — 4.51
40 — 4.99
10 — 1.74
Erik McCoy
TEF — 3.05
SS — 4.62
40 — 4.89
10 — 1.72
Mitch Morse
TEF — 3.45
SS — 4.50
40 — 5.14
10 — 1.86
The average TEF score here is a 3.18. The average short shuttle time (4.50) is heavily influenced by Jason Kelce’s remarkable 4.14. Take it out and the average is a 4.56. So again — explosive testing results prove to be consistent among the top players at center.
The forty times again show up too. The average among the list at center is a 5.02 — the same as the guards. The 10-yard split average (1.75) also matches the guards.
There are some other notable numbers to consider. Ryan Kelly in Indianapolis is only a 2.80 TEF tester. He ran a 4.59 short shuttle and a 5.03 forty. So he is an average athlete and not explosive.
Ryan Jensen is only a 2.68 TEF tester. He ran a decent 4.56 short shuttle and a 5.23 forty. You could argue his agility testing works towards explaining his success (I might argue playing with Tom Brady has also helped).
Rodney Hudson is one of the worst testers to succeed at the next level. His TEF score is bad (2.50) but somehow not as bad as his short shuttle (4.96) or forty (5.31).
David Andrews scored a 2.97 in TEF — meaning he is generally explosive. His short shuttle (4.78) and forty (5.12) were below average.
If we add all these numbers to the average for TEF at center it still comes out at a 3.02. So even the bad testers don’t really influence the results.
It ends up being pretty clear. Although all won’t succeed, the chances are the best offensive linemen from this upcoming draft class will come from the list below — the most explosive athletes:
Zion Johnson (G)
TEF — 3.33
SS — 4.46
40 — 5.18
10 — 1.74
Cole Strange (G/C)
TEF — 3.42
SS — 4.50
40 — 5.03
10 — 1.71
Bernhard Raimann (G)
TEF — 3.37
SS — 4.49
40 — 5.05
10 — 1.70
Cam Jurgens (C)
TEF — 3.34
SS — 4.49
40 — 4.92
10 — 1.71
Zach Tom (C)
TEF — 3.33
SS — 4.47
40 — 4.94
10 — 1.63
Matt Waletzko (T)
TEF — 3.15
SS — 4.59
40 — 5.03
10 — 1.70
Tyler Linderbaum (C)
TEF — 3.07
SS — 4.38
40 — 4.98
10 — 1.71
Trevor Penning (T)
TEF — 3.03
SS — 4.62
40 — 4.89
10 — 1.65
Logan Bruss (T/G)
TEF — 3.08
SS — 4.55
40 — 5.32
10 — 1.76
Luke Wattenburg (C)
TEF — 3.06
SS — 4.57
40 — 5.20
10 — 1.72
Abraham Lucas (T)
TEF — 2.97
SS — 4.40
40 — 4.92
10 — 1.69
Here’s a reminder of the average testing results for the top performers in the NFL so you can make positional comparisons:
Tackle
TEF — 3.12
SS — 4.65
40 — 4.98
10 — 1.73
Guard
TEF — 3.09
SS — 4.59
40 — 5.02
10 — 1.75
Center
TEF — 3.18
SS — 4.56
40 — 5.02
10 — 1.75
Notable among this group — all but Logan Bruss ran an above average 10-yard split (and he missed out by 0.01 seconds).
Don’t be surprised if players like Ikem Ekwonu and Charles Cross don’t live up to their lofty media expectations and the names above outshine them in terms of NFL careers.
Ekwonu ran a good forty (4.93) and as we’ve discovered — that might be more indicative than we think. He ran a 1.72 10-yard split. However, nothing else about his profile stands out. He’s a 2.90 TEF tester which is good not great. His short shuttle was only a 4.73. For me he’s best served kicking into guard, as Zack Martin did. They have similar testing results. I think Ekwonu can be a terrific guard.
Cross also ran a good forty (4.95) but he’s only a 2.84 TEF tester and thus, not an explosive player. He ran a 4.61 short shuttle and a 1.75 split. The simple fact is that if he succeeds in the NFL we’ll be talking about him as another outlier.
Looking at the the explosive testers above, I would suggest the following:
— Zion Johnson has every chance to go in the same range as Alijah Vera-Tucker (#14 overall) and could end up being one of the best players to emerge from this draft
— Cole Strange, Cam Jurgens and Zach Tom have every chance to excel irrespective of where they are taken
— Tyler Linderbaum might not fit every scheme due to his size but he has the physical makeup of a top performing center
— Trevor Penning — with his explosive testing and fast forty — has every chance to go in the top-10 and could easily go before Charles Cross, potentially as the third lineman off the board (Carolina at #6?) because his testing results match the best OT’s in the league
— If Bernhard Raimann wasn’t a 25-year-old rookie with short arms he’d likely be a very, very high pick — but he needs a major technical re-tool and the age/length works against him
— Abraham Lucas deserves a lot more attention given he tests well across the board
Here’s a list of players who did not test well (an understatement in some cases) but they’re still being discussed as high picks:
Kenyon Green (G)
TEF — 2.46
SS — 5.12
40 — 5.24
10 — 1.76
Jamaree Salyer (G)
TEF — 2.67
SS — 4.70
40 — N/A
10 — N/A
Daniel Faalele (T)
TEF — 2.50
SS — 5.06
40 — 5.60
10 — 2.04
Tyler Smith (T)
TEF — 2.73
SS — 4.65
40 — 5.02
10 — 1.70
Darian Kinnard (T/G)
TEF — 2.54
SS — 4.96
40 — 5.31
10 — 1.78
As we draw closer to the start of the 2022 NFL draft I’m more convinced than ever that the Seahawks should set out to build an explosive, athletic offensive line.
With three high picks they have an opportunity to make that happen.
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Schrager’s new mock has Evan Neal & Jermaine Johnson available at #8.
He has Seattle taking Derek Stingley Jr which has now become the trendy pick for Seattle in mocks
I don’t see any chance Johnson or Neal lasts. But Schrager and Mel Kiper have now had Neal lasting to the #8-9 range.
I will cover this in an article this week.
Would be a bit bizarre for Atlanta to take Neal at #8 like Schrager projects given they’ve got three offensive linemen who are first round picks already and Matt Hennessy who’s a first rounder. Yet they have no pass rush threat and Johnson is right there for them.
Also — tomorrow is Tony Pauline interview day.
Even though Jermaine Johnson is better than Sam Williams defending the run, at this stage I’m currently viewing Williams as the more exciting Pass Rush prospect. Won’t be mad if they opt to pass on Johnson in favor of adding Williams after a trade down
Johnson for me is a complete rusher
Williams isn’t strong enough yet
IMO Johnson will be the better rookie and if Williams applies himself he’ll be the more productive second year player
Was just about to post this- you beat me to it. I split hairs on a few picks, but overall it struck me as one of the more reasonable mocks- like I don’t totally agree with it, but I could see that happening kinda of mock.
I think there’s a lot in it I don’t agree with
Will post a new mock myself this week
Looking forward to the Pauline interview.
Might I suggest you bring the last post on the previous thread that cha started and you and Robbie commented on over here? Please. I think it’s important for people to know the mindset of this FO.
What’s that? The part where they are bringing in a freaking safety for a visit?
Surely this FO isn’t thick enough to think they need to spend another red cent on the safety position? I don’t necessarily want it to happen but surely they wouldn’t sign a guy even to a league minimum when this draft has a group of very interesting names at safety?
Or the part where John and Pete feel like they are out on the tarmac doing semaphore signaling that they are 100% going to reach for tackle at nine.
Rob just did the great piece on Sam Williams and the seahawks doing seahawks things….here’s one…
With pick nine seattle selects …Kyle Hamilton…..if ever a pick was going to make me want to walk through a plate glass window.
My only thought is they plan on genuinely using the 3 safety defence with great regularity.
The Fangio defense is built on a lot of cover 2 and cover 4 concepts, basically 2 safeties over the top most of the time. But Adams isn’t really suited to playing deep safety on every snap. It highlights his weaknesses and doesn’t allow him to do what he’s good at.
So theoretically, they could be looking to bring in Kazee to partner up with Diggs on the back end which would allow Adams to play in that “Star” role closer to the line of scrimmage. This would allow him to blitz from the slot, or show blitz and drop, read and react aggressively against the run, plus keep him protected from major coverage responsibilities.
If this was actually the plan I think it would be very interesting and be a sign of real evolution of the defence that we’ve wanted for years. Or it could be that Pete has a safety addiction and the guy ends up playing ST and backing up Diggs, but this is a positive time of year.
Pretty well reasoned response. I’m fine with the idea of a three safety concept. However through all of Rob’s interviews I never heard anyone mention safety as the most important part of a 3-4.
I appreciate the latitude some fans have with Adams. Though I still believe it is the alltime worst trade in franchise history in terms of draft and cash I can see why people are hoping he somehow returns to his increasingly farther away all-pro level.
The eye rolling about safeties is multi-fold.
1. Where are the freaking tackles on this team?
2. How are you squaring three safety concepts while having an objectively so-so rest of the defense?
3. If you are contemplating safety at all with Neal who less manufactured blitzes played at replacement level of a former all pro….why would you not look to these top 30 visits for a younger player with special teams value?
4. Fans of Adams don’t want to hear it but there is a very real chance that a guy with multiple shoulder injuries including season ending is never going to physically be the player that they hope he can be. This part is not a dig at him.
Yes, the part where they’re bringing in a Safety. And yes Peter, they are thick enough, but you already knew that. And I suppose a 3 Safety defense to try to get some sort of return, any return on the peacock is possible Henry. I also wonder if they already know Diggs will not be back as soon as hoped and that 10 million they spent on him will be at least partially dead money. Of course, I did predict Petey would draft another Safety because he literally can’t seem to help himself but this would be similar only adding one for more money. Woo hoo!
I have to wonder if this is something influenced a bit by Desai.
If he is bringing his Cover 4 principles over that was so successful shutting down the Rams, which he very likely is, it could be a hedge in that direction. Have 2 off ball safeties on the field in addition to Adams who can play the SS near the LOS.
I’m guessing they’re looking at another Safety because Diggs, Adams, and Blair are all injured. They’ll need somebody to run drills unless Amadi and Neal can do it all. Might as well look at an experienced player who will be relatively inexpensive with minimal guaranteed cash until closer to the season. We may see a late round Safety and/or UDFA to fill out the roster until the other guys are healthy.
Wonderful insights into how to evaluate. Thank you, as this makes my decision making easier, and we all know how important it is that I get this right.
It was startling to see that 40 times can matter for tackles. As a long time fan of this site, I have been aware of the argument about explosiveness (and was frustrated by the handling of the BP at the combine), length, and short shuttle times, so this is another factor I can use.
With that in mind, do you see value in 10 yard splits? It seems logical that a quick burst would be a good thing.
Thanks again for all you do for us nuts.
I have updated the article and added 10-yard splits for each player.
Also included the average times of the top performers to see how they compare to the explosive/fast testers in this class.
Interesting results.
What is the TEF for Evan Neal?
He hasn’t done any testing
Why no testing? Injury or not wanting to risk the perception of being ‘highly athletic’ I see in a bunch of mocks?
Would be cool to see what the TEF for Walter Jones/ Steve Hutchinson.
I calculated Hutch at 3.25
Could not find full testing numbers for Big Walt
Big walt was too busy pudhing csrs up and down his parents driveway for tests.
I love how Big Walt would never come to any involuntary workouts, come in superb shape from pushing cars uphill all off season and dominate everyone
Pete Kendall, when asked whether there was a defensive player who was a problem for Walter Jones: “No.”
Walter Jones’ explosive testing was measured in megatons.
I think there is almost zero chance they trade DK now but if the did to the Jets for 10 and 38 they could completely remake the OL as well as add a lockdown CB like Stingley and impact LB like Tindall.
Great write up Rob! Love all your work but these type of pieces are by far my favourite. Awesome stuff.
Excellent write up Rob!!!
My biggest draft crushes are Zion and Breece Hall and hope Seattle can trade back if the Edge rushers don’t fall to them at 9. Zion can play LG this season and move to C next year or even sprinkle in some OT. He’s a rare talent with a strong base and smart as hell.
There are some quality Linemen in this years draft though.
I don’t think there’s any need to move Zion.
If Seattle were an honest to themselves team the fastest way to change course and either help Lock succeed or be ready for a new QB would be draft Zion and make sure you get Linderbaum, Jurgens, or Cole Strange.
If done well Seattle would lock up the interior in three spots getting Damian Lewis back to RG.
There are a good deal of very interesting defensive players they would still be able to draft.
But they have Blythe now who is only 29. My point is Johnson offers the team flexibility not “need” if Seattle doesn’t resign Blythe next season while still getting cheaper production at G in case Seattle cuts Jackson.
Seattle has multiple position groups it needs to address than just going OL with it’s first 3 picks also.
For me. I’m over moving around olinemen. If zion is your left guard o don’t want him to move and then need a LG again.
Blythe is very much a hedge on drafting a center. 29 years old on a cheapish one year contract.
I definitely share your sentiments about moving players around (see DJ Reed and D Lewis) but I think Zion has Pro Bowl potential in any interior position he lines up at.
And yes, Blythe is very much a hedge which makes Zion’s flexibility more important. Considering Blythe’s familiarity with Waldron’s system I doubt he’s beat out by anyone drafted in this years draft.
For whatever reason, this team seems to love paying opportunity costs; moving guys around is one of them.. It impedes development by negating reps, taking reps away, and diverting coaching time and resources. I have a pathetic little fantasy that one of these years they will draft a left guard and play him at left guard.
Really interesting piece. I think you might have swapped Linderbaum’s SS and 40 times (unless Linderbaum ran a sub 4.4 40 and no one is talking about it :P).
Thanks — I’ve corrected it
Zach Tom looking solid…same numbers as Cam Jurgens?
This whole idea of the explosive lineman is kind of hilarious when you think about it. You want a huge, 300 pound man who is a bunny hopping speedster. Remember that old Nintendo Olympic hockey game where you could pick the skinny fast guys or the fat slow strong guys?
These are both! Aerodynamically challenged yet overcomers.
If we are honest that hockey game was one of best sports games ever.
For real
The freakishness of NFL players is incredible. When you think about how fast the “plodders” are in the league, or how muscular the “undersized” players are, you realize how much of a human outlier these guys are.
With lineman, these guys would chase me down in the forty like a lion taking out a gazelle.
While I’m thinking about it, wasn’t Jurgen a converted tight end? And what tight end did we just give a really strange contract to that the Seahawks had rated as the best blocker in the draft when they selected him?
Great article and seems like you have to take one of the centers this year.
One side of me is going very excited into this draft cause there are so many good options. I like Stingley. I’m okay with a trade down and even with first three picks going into O-Line (Johnson, Lucas, Center). If they take Wyatt or Davis I wouldn’t be mad, they have somethng special. It seems like you can get a promising LB all the way through the draft… This draft feels kind of child proof given the deep overall pool of intersting players you can choose from. And we have the draft captial.
But one part of me is in deep fear of our FO thinking they are smarter than everyone else and blowing up this draft (once again). This roster isn’t close to win now at all.
Child proof. That’s how i feel about it as well. Trying to synthesize between Rob, Pauline, and Simms I find I can come up with a ton of variations of picks thst are improvements on this current roster. Even hedging with a weird pick or two like a WR inthe second round you should still be able to add quite a few starter level players.
Great analysis! As a self professed data junky I appreciate the rigor of testing the profiling / ranking theories.
Early in the post season I was convinced that the Hawks needed to go defense heavy. The more I see of the OL prospects, the more I can see the value in going that direction.
There’s been plenty of great discussion around relative value of various positions factored against the player’s top-end potential. The question I’m left with now is if there should be a factor of what I’d call developmental time of the position? (Not to be confused with the individual being a ‘raw prospect’)
Assuming it’s generally accepted that defensive players reach relative productivity quicker than offensive players (RB being the exception), does it make sense to factor that in when you’re on the clock and faced with equally rated prospects on opposite sides of the ball? If it’s a two year rebuild / return to contender status, does this approach become more important?
TLDR – In a two year rebuild, do you go offense heavy year 1 and defense year 2 ?
Interesting thought process. You make sense with O heavy year one and D heavy year 2 based on generally accepted development rate.
I’ve been thinking a lot about this.
To me, it might be better to take slower developing positions early this year, and take two runningbacks late, and try to hit on one. There’s always gonna be a running back available, let’s see if we can get one to hit cheap. If we miss on a RB in round 6 whatever, but if we hit and don’t have to take one in the 2nd next year? Seems pretty good.
My thinking is build a road grading line and it will probably take a season to gel. If it’s faster than that great. But whether pete believes or not this is a rebuild. Rob has lined put some pretty interesting options on defense…..logan hall, clemons, cam taylor-britt but the oline talent falls off a cliff. Unless luke fortner can really be more than he is or Eze and I don’t think Seattle would draft him those picks in the first two rounds could do a lot to change the make up of this team.
It seems like with all the simulators and mocks, that Seattle will have a good chance to get guys like Cam Jurgens, Cole Strange, and Abe Lucas. If they will just listen to Rob. They could have a foundation on the line that lets them return to their identity. Then, they’d just have to find the next Marshawn or Taylor/Chubb. That seems harder to project though.
Hawks need a direct line to Rob when it is time to pick.
Specifically when their guys are gone. Like a red phone panic line so Rob can direct them to the next best players.
Rob who is not paid to get all this work has plan A to Z for the draft with one man resource I would assume Hawks has the same. Now the plan what hawks has may not be good or of our liking.
Yup. Fingers crossed, eyes wide shut.
Seems like its one way to go in this draft. I just hope they follow the board, move aggressively up and down as they need too. BPA more than anything, but always good to line it up.
I’d much prefer to see investment in the O-line sooner than later. My main rationale is that I’m assuming we go get a potential franchise QB next year (or at least we’re planning on it), and he’ll probably be a rookie. I think a rookie QB will have a much better chance to develop into a good pro if he gets to start his career behind a decent O-line. So I think it’s important to put some potential future starting O-linemen in place this year, so they develop a little and give a rookie QB a better chance to learn while going through progressions instead of running for his life and more likely learning some bad habits.
We’re not contending this year, and won’t be contending next year if we have a rookie QB. So aim for really hitting our stride in 2024 with a 2nd year QB.
One of the challenges with using testing scores is the small sample size of tests. We get a couple of runs at the combine, and then pro day. We get maybe 4-6 dips into the ocean to measure. Even at a 5% variation changes the outcome pretty significantly. Sleep, diet, time of day, just having a subtly different type of day can give a good score and an average or bad score. There’s some good research on this out there re: Olympic performers. It can help explain some (some!) of the reasons or difference between “game speed” and testing speed. And why some poor testers are good players and why some good testers are not.
These test scores are important insights but unless we start getting a dozen or more of them on each player we need to recognize or build in some variance accounting for basic elements of human performance.
When you’re judging ‘the best graded players’ it’s always going to be a smaller sample size.
Otherwise they wouldn’t be the best.
Excellent work as usual.
Coming back to a comment you made in one of the podcasts Rob, analytics are much more fun when it’s just one or two teams doing it. Oakland playing Moneyball versus every single team trying to elevate and pull the ball to hit homers…
The way sports are trending, we almost need frequent rule changes so things don’t get stale… The NFL could use some rules to let DB’s play more physical up close while big hits get legislated out, and maybe something to encourage the running game?
What was Forsythe’s TEF last year?
2.68 standard TEF, 82.3 Weighted TEF
2.68
You can see all of last year here: https://seahawksdraftblog.com/introducing-the-most-explosive-o-line-class-in-years
Stone is a one trick pony and that pony is his size. Works well in college. Not sure it will work in the nfl even with some improved technique.
Sixth rounder
That late they have been prepared to take more chances on poor testing. Not early or middle rounds though
Really hope we can come away with any two of those names, except for maybe Raimann.
Strange and Lucas would be great, as Strange can slot anywhere on the interior depending on how Haynes and Blythe look.
Man I hope there is a run on QB’s in top 10. Seahawks could parlay that into some serious talent haul.
Rob love the TEF & Weighted TEF analysis.
In 2021 you mentioned Nagy suggested hand size might be more important than arm length for Center.
Referencing Hunt & his 30″” arms, but 10″ hands.
With Pete also talking about shorter Centers, I continue to believe they need to come away with one of your top 2 Centers.
Jurgens 3.34 TEF, 6’3″, 33 3/8″ arms, 10″ hands
Linderbaum 3.07 TEF, 6’2″, 31 1/8″ arms, 10″ hands
If either are available at #40 they just need to take them.
The key is how possible do you view one being there at #40?
creed humphrey and josh myers went 62 and 63, the first centers off the board, for what that is worth.
You tend to like nerdy stuff. Just looked at the last six drafts. Taking the spot the first two centers were drafted and then dividing it by 12… pick 48-49 is the range they go in.
In McShay/Kiper new alternate draft they have Hawks taking Neal @ #9 (McShay pick), Corral @ 40 (Kiper pick), Quay Walker @ 41 (McShay pick) and Amare Barno @ 72 (Kiper pick) with Chenal still available in Round 3 as well as Abe Lucas in Round 2 among others.
Some of the absolute best draft content on the web, every time I read an article I learn something new. Not a seahawks guy, but damn Rob, this is great.
Superb article Rob. One of your best yet.
I’m all for building a line this draft and setting a solid foundation.
But do we think a RB will be taken early? I’m not – and probably not the only one – convinced Penny and Carson can last a season.
MUCH better
The reaction to the initial contract is so overblown. You would think by now people would know to wait until the details are out.
That’s been the reaction to every single contract announcement. Usually from the same people over and over.
I don’t think there’s been too many overactions.
I still think at 10-15 million for a run blocking TE is too much even if he never gets the full 24 mil.
Glad as I am that they got nwosu for scheme fit I think it’s about 50/50 that he ends up in hyder/mayowa/irvin territory. That’s why I think that contract is an overpay.
Agree Peter and as much as I like Diggs, I feel like the 10 mil they spent on him was too much as well.
Do we need any Tackles? Oh wait, we got Forsyth and Curhan, we good.
And JJ, have you seen how easily those incentives are reached for Geno? Might the contract be an easily reached 2 mil? Is that too much?
I can’t imagine the incentives are in the “likely to be earned” category and thus count against the cap.
LTBE incentives are based on prior year performance, and Geno only had 3+ games to base anything on, not enough of a sample.
Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if all $3.5m of the incentives are NLTBE and do not count against the salary cap.
Remind me again what those acronyms mean?
Likely To Be Earned vs Not Likely To Be Earned
It’s a classification that has cap ramifications.
Say a player has a $100k incentive for making the Pro Bowl in 2022. If he made it in 2021, it’s LTBE and counts on the cap if he earns it. If he didn’t make the Pro Bowl in 2021, it’s NLTBE and does not count on the cap.
Geno only played a fraction of a season in 2021 so he doesn’t really accumulate any stats of note to judge the incentives in his 2022 contract, so I’m pretty confident the $3.5m is all NLTBE.
Thank you Curtis. So Geno probably has a “win the superbowl and you get $2M bonus,” which is NLTBE!
It’s not overblown to say he should not have received any contract. He’s a below average backup who doesn’t have the common sense to avoid getting a DUI. We are lucky he didn’t kill someone. Absolute trash that they re-signed him.
Totally.
But even if it was for the full $3.5m is that really too much to have a veteran presence on the roster, who knows the system both in practice and in games, who can immediately push the other QBs in camp and preseason, and to have available in case of injury (or incompetence)?
Yes it is too much imo, but we can agree to disagree it would seem.
Do we have any Tackles outside of Forsyth and Curhan?
I should be clearer: I’m not a fan of Geno. I don’t want him on the team. But I understand why he is on it. And I understand why they’ve chosen to allocate his small portion of the cap space in him.
As for OT, is there a specific one you’d want for Geno’s $500k guarantee?
Also, I’m becoming more convinced that Seattle have at least agreed in principle to a deal with Duane Brown, and they’re keeping it under wraps so as not to tip their plans for the draft.
C’mon man, you know it’s more than that. It’s the pattern: overpaying Dissly, overpaying Diggs, overpaying Blythe, maybe Woods, maybe Geno, etc. As Rob and likely you and others have mentioned, I fear they have painted themselves into a corner at the Tackle position and will now reach badly for a 2nd round guy after they expected trade t=down to around 12 or 13 and the hole patching will continue. In fact, sadly I am expecting it.
The only off-season contract that they handed out that is still kind of iffy to me is the Dissly deal.
I don’t mind the Diggs deal as much now as I did then. Given Blair’s injury history, and the potential of Adams having a chronic shoulder issue, I think they had to do something. I’m sure PCJS still have nightmares about Tedric Thompson.
I would have preferred that they went after Marcus Williams instead of re-signing Diggs, but I understand their thinking.
The nwosu one is a bit rich.
And I do hope you’re right about Duane. I’m as usual not as optimistic. They’ve beat optimism out of me my friend.
I feel ya bro. Believe me I do. I think they’ve set up Curhan + Dissly to be their RT hedge. If they miss a Penning in mid R1, or a Logan Bruss in R3/4. I think that’s why Dis was a priority resign at a premium.
As for overpaying for those other FAs, man they just can’t attract talent like they used to. Nobody is giving them a discount because they really want to be a part of this.
The 7 million number was always crazy money, but seeing it’s only 0.5 guaranteed? Much much better indeed.
Some of these vet signings won’t make the team this year.
Thanks cha!
Enough bonus to get him under contract, but when he doesn’t win the starting role they can cut him and re-sign him to vet min. He’ll get cut before the “final” 53 when vet contracts are guaranteed and then re-signed once it’s not guaranteed.
Love most of your articles, but especially this one.
Interesting the strong correlation with the 40 time, which makes sense because of the initial burst needed at the start.
I noticed that 3 players mentioned that are good with low TEF: Matthews, Conklin and Scherff.
They all ran around a 5 flat 40 and a 4.5 short shuttle.
The best football content on the web by far, and you just keep serving it up daily.
You’re in a league by yourself Rob
The TEF thing is an interesting metric. I think it ought to be normalized on the bench press to arm length, as guys with longer arms tend to put up lower numbers (W=Fs) because they are moving the weight farther. Say, multiply the bench press by (arm length / 33) or whatever the average arm length is for a lineman. I think TEF may devalue the bigger players like Orlando Brown or Trent Brown or Mekhi Becton. Those guys may struggle with agility and explosiveness, but compensate with mass and length.
There are other recent examples of non-explosive players doing well in the league besides Bakhtiari. Ronnie Stanley and Orlando Brown being two Pro-Bowlers that are highly regarded at OT with excellent PFF scores over the years. I’m sure there are others, but those come quickly to mind. Stanley is an interesting case. His arms and hands probably being his real unique trait.
I would not be upset if they went the OL route, but how heavy do you think they might go? Aren’t they expected to get the D coordinator some shiny new toys?
In the “exception proves the rule” category, there’s Luke Wattenburg. Over 3.00 on TEF, but as a Husky fan I’ve watched him get pushed around for years. He cannot seem to translate any of that into his actual play.
Is there a weight adjusted version of TEF?
Perhaps weight/300 +TEF
Weight x TEF x 0.1
I watched Peter Schrager’s mock draft this morning. I found it quite interesting. Schrager has the Hawks taking Darrell Stingley Jr. He also has Jacksonville taking Tavon Walker #1 overall. Yesterday Tony Pauline was doing a interview and he said he thought Tavon Walker could go number one. In fact is more PRO READY than almost any prospect. Walker could have gotten many more TFLs. But that was NOT his role. Their were other players on the Georgia defense who role was to get after the QB.
I saw Matt Waletzko yesterday on NFL Network. I see Rob has a 3rd round grade on Waletzko. I would love to see Watetzko in a Seahawk uniform.
Rob, You’ve not included Ebiketie in your top 4 Edge’s. Where is he on your list? Would you take him on a trade down or at 40/41?
He’s on Rob’s Bigboard. 8th rated edge ranked to go round 1-2
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/updated-horizontal-board-pete-carroll-notes
Lol, even the league “disapproves” of Geno’s signing…
https://youtu.be/iz5KCThrX9M
Bobby Wagner on Eisen with a little behind the scenes stuff.
-Russ tried to recruit Bobby to Denver before he was officially traded
-Bobby called the org about rumors he’d been hearing about him, they said ‘come on in let’s talk face to face’ and Bobby said no because he ‘already knew’ what the conversation was about.
Interesting.
That is interesting because during his interview with Mike Salk on April 6th Bobby said that he wanted the team to communicate with him about his release and they didn’t. Also said that he would have been willing to come for less money. That interview doesn’t seem to line up with the latest comments.
I need an intervention. PFN is warping my expectations and yet I can’t stop.
I just walked away from the draft with a rebuilt OL, two dynamic defenders, a running back, a corner prospect and 3 more high 2023 picks.
28.Devin Lloyd LB Utah
41.Tyler Linderbaum OC Iowa
59.Abraham Lucas OT Washington State
72.Channing Tindall LB Georgia
79.Cameron Jurgens OC Nebraska
133.Zamir White RB Georgia
152.Obinna Eze OT TCU
153. Tariq Castro-Fields CB Penn State
2023 BUF 1st
2023 TB 2nd
2023 WAS 3rd
Top 6 picks are solid and 1st 2nd 3rd extra for next year. Unbelievable
Cha, you really need to use Rob’s Bigboard when drafting. It keeps things more realistic. Otherwise you’re able get 16 players with round 1 & 2 draft grades.
This is a PFF draft sim. I did with the idea in mind that trader John will trade down and often to accumulate as many picks as possible. Ended up with 6 picks in the 1-st 100 + 1 at 109, so who do they then pick? I figured they would end up with mostly tier 2/3/4 guys at most positions they pick, with a few “*good*” picks thrown in. Ending up with 12 picks –could– be a likely possibility? At least some holes are filled, some better than others.
SEA 26. — Arnold Ebiketie, EDGE Penn State (maybe not the best, but EDGE is a need.)
SEA 40.. –Travis Jones, DT Connecticut (I may like this DT more than most, underrated inside pass rusher.)
SEA 41.. –Kyler Gordon, CB Washington* (Just an educated guess here + CB need.)
SEA 52.. –Abraham Lucas, OT Washington State*
SEA 72.. –Leo Chenal, LB Wisconsin*
SEA 84.. –Cole Strange, OC/OG Chattanooga*
SEA 109 –Dameon Pierce, RB Florida*
SEA 131.–Zyon McCollum, CB (developmental) Sam Houston State
SEA 152.–Tyquan Thornton, WR Baylor (?? = slim pickings at WR)
SEA 153.–Smoke Monday, S Auburn*
SEA 204.–Dontario Drummond, WR Mississippi (?? = slim pickings at WR)
SEA 229.–Jack Coan, QB, Notre Dame* (future B/U QB = ?)
I have come away with almost this exact same draft on PFF
PFN gives trades like they are PC jonesing for a box safety. Found I have to counter trade offers and give stuff back to make it sober up a bit. I mean 2 firsts, a 3rd, and a starter for a box safety without a contract? Nobody does that.
Doing some advanced scouting here, this may be someone we’re talking about in about four years:
Nykoles Harbor, 6-5, 235 DE
Archbishop Carroll HS, Washington DC
5* recruit 2023
Runs 10.28/10.32 100m
Y’all gotta see this:
https://tinyurl.com/y7nt9u73
Sorry, try this:
https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1510789196964900869?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1510804485760724992%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FTRCKFTBLGUY%2Fstatus%2F1510804485760724992
Something going on with Safety, I hope they are planning to move on from Adams in near future.
https://www.fieldgulls.com/2022/4/19/23032418/report-former-falcons-safety-damontae-kazee-visiting-seahawks-nfl-news
Jalen Pitre hedge.
Would love to get Pitre in the second if we trade down from #9 and get an extra day two pick. Not a position of high need but if you think he can make it as a slot I’d love it.
Yes, we can always dream. Maybe if Seattle picked up 3/4 of his salary. That doesn’t take into account Carroll actually being willing to admit a mistake by trading him. Sadly I think the days of dumping Percy are over as Carroll has become more entrenched as the lone power in Seattle answering to no one. In other words, we stuck with him for at least 2 more seasons.
Draft Day trade of JA would be amazing.
Rip the bandaid off, eat whatever $ you have to and get whatever you can.
Pipe dream i know.
Fantasies are good for sure. In mine Scarlett Johansen thinks I’m the most awesome guy she’s ever met. Sadly that probably has as much of a chance of happening as a trade of Adams.
I don’t know Mike, the movie HER doesn’t seem that far off. There’s def a chance.
Rob & Co.
Thoughts on Pier-Olivier Lestage?
Do we have TEF numbers for him?
He was a favorite UDFA of mine last year…
I just let the PFN Sim go on its own:
I Ekwonu ( OG)
T Jones ( DT)
A Ebiketie (Edge)
C Tindall ( LB)
C Mays (OG)
M wright (Db)
C Paul ( OT)
j Coan ( Qb)
no trades were involved. Would we take this draft?
A bit underwhelming but more realistic thsn sone of the ones others here cook up
Hey guys, shouldn’t we actually be excited if the Seahawks draft a QB at #9?
I don’t expect it to happen, based on the near-consensus view of the talking heads, but such a move would indicate that John and Pete clearly think they have found “their guy.” Shouldn’t we trust John’s scouting a little more than we trust our own? I know we are really enjoying playing GM, but John does know a little more about these QBs than we do, especially the traits that aren’t readily apparent on film. John and Pete hit a home run in their first at-bat (Russ), and John has, by all accounts, spent the past ten years scouting and rating QBs to hone his craft just to prepare for this moment. Supposedly he was sold on Mahomes and Allen, which is a good sign…
Anyway, I have read some comments that folks will actually be upset if we select a QB with our R1 pick (even if traded down a few slots). That is not logical. For John and Pete to invest that pick at that position, they will truly have to be convinced on a guy, and we should be excited about it, to watch it unfold. True, they would be passing on a “sure thing,” and a QB is always a crapshoot, but how much good would a “sure thing” do us if we don’t have an elite QB, and if John and Pete are convinced, and are ready to pull the trigger this year rather than next, then I will be along for the ride.
No
I’ll go one better than Rob. HELL NO!
The first at bat was whomever traded for charlie whitehurst. The second at bat was when pete of all people shot him down on Andy Dalton.
Then there is the awesome list of terrible oline that this crew has drafted.
John doesn’t get credit for liking allen but somehow a pass back to pete for every other bad decision.
Mike holmgren is a legend. And he helped Cleveland find “their guy,” in brandon weeden.
You are right that QB is a crap shoot. The question here becomes whether you want to use the highest draft pick you’ve had in 10+ years in the crap shoot.
It’s very unlikely that PCJS see any of the QBs in this draft as The Guy. Schneider has already said that had Lock come out this year, he’d be the top-rated QB; while it seems clear that they want to see what they have in Lock, they are by no means convinced that he is the future at QB. If they are not convinced of Lock, then they aren’t sold on Willis et al.
Rob Staton is the Abraham Lucas of this mock draft.
Overlooked and underappreciated.
The work you’re putting out is running circles around your peers who have the bigger platform. (for now).
Canadian Hawk: Rob Staton is the Abraham Lucas of this mock draft.
Overlooked and underappreciated.
The work you’re putting out is running circles around your peers who have the bigger platform. (for now
I second the motion
Fantastic data Rob. Really neat to look at all of that in one place and makes so much sense.
I love all the enthusiasm and all the mock draft simulations. I just hope the Hawks draft names don’t look more like this:
1st: John Boggs
2nd: Peter Malone
2nd: Billy Fontaine
3rd: Dalvit Schumpert.
Etc etc.. 😉
Despite my pessimism, which kicked in when Jody/Vulcan chose PC/JS over Wilson — my very worst football fear realized — I do greatly appreciate Rob’s enthusiasm and expertise. A voice of some hope amidst darkness, like Churchill on the radio bucking – up the good guys in 1940-41, as everything was going to hell.
VERY well said Tomas. I fear the bombs will be falling with even greater frequency post draft tho.
People were not happy with me for pointing out that Charles Cross and Ikem Ekwonu failed to meet certain thresholds.
Become a big fan of the seaside joe podcast. Awesome stuff.
#1 Travon Walker JAX
#2 Aiden Hutchinson DET
#3 Evan Neal HOU
#4 Jordan Davis NYJ
#5 Ahmed Gardner NYG
#6 Malik Willis – WAS
#7 Kayvon Thibodeaux NYG
#8 Garrett Wilson ATL
#9 Cross & Ekwonu not SEA
Terrific work man. Love the big uglies up front. If I make a bold guess I think Jurgens could drop into the 50s making him the Humphrey of this year. All the Evan Neal stuff is very interesting. I know he has no testing but is there any old SPARQ data floating around? I imagine he is well over 3.0 TEF
Rob, great article. Do you have TEF score on Seahawks drafted OL by any chance? Wondering how it compare to the average or they all had high score when drafted but just not planned out, like Ifedi of Pocic.
Russell Okung — 3.27
James Carpenter — No testing
John Moffitt — 2.68
JR Sweezy — 3.08
Justin Britt — 3.00
Garrett Scott — 3.27
Terry Poole — 3.07
Mark Glowinski — 3.25
Germain Ifedi — 2.97
Rees Odhiambo — injury recovery during pre-draft process
Joey Hunt — no testing
Ethan Pocic — 2.81 (was among most explosive in a down year for OL)
Phil Haynes — 3.22
Damien Lewis — 2.97
That’s more or less it. The later round picks — trends have been less important in rounds 6/7
OMG. This is crazy. No Russell wanted to leave. Russell Okung was drafted when Scot McCloughan was still in the Seahawk organization. Besides Justin Britt and Damien Lewis(Sweezy was a defensive lineman) who else do you really want.
I am giving this class a D+ grade
No wonder Russell Wilson wanted to leave. I need to do a better job of proof reading.
Thanks Rob. No wonder Glowinski has a longer career in NFL than many others. Hopefully Seahawks can pick a solid OL this year.
Yes a nice long career…………….not in Seattle.
I will say this Seattle will do the one thing we seem to forget. Draft a player we have not discussed and every draft analyst will be WTF.
I’ve only ever done that once — in 2020
I was just randomly thinking about Pete’s comment about us having picks next year that will play a part in what we do this year. Makes me wonder the possibilities, even though it probably wasn’t very meaningful. My quick thoughts:
1) We’re going to be trading late picks to move up in the earlier rounds. May end up not picking after the 4th round.
2) Positions that will be available next year that they aren’t worried about this year. QB is one, is there another?
Actually not a bad hit rate… or at least I was expecting worse.
Russell Okung: A
James Carpenter: B
John Moffitt: D
JR Sweezy: A
Justin Britt: B
Garrett Scott: C
Terry Poole: D
Mark Glowinski: A
Germain Ifedi: B
Rees Odhiambo: D
Joey Hunt: B
Ethan Pocic: D
Phil Haynes: B
Damien Lewis: A
Threw in some draft grades (acknowledging draft status).
First Okung was a no brainer. Plus Scot McCloughan was still in the organization. But in my opinion your are extremely generous in your grades.
I have to agree here. Some of these grades feel way off.
Glowinski was a borderline F while he was in Seattle. Had he been used correctly and retained I’d go “a.”
Ifedi. Feels like if he were a b level player he would either be on the team or this offseason they would have made a move to try to lure him back.
Phil Haynes. To early for any grade.
Joey hunt. I can’t recall him being anything but just a guy.
Joey Hunt was a 6th round back up center that outperformed my personal expectations… I’m not claiming he’s All-Pro.
Mark Glowinski is a great player… but apparently we missed used him for whatever reason. I’m giving the pick a good grade.
Germain Ifedi gets a B. Played well in my opinion… good but not great. I guess I can give him a C after getting clocked by Clark (I miss Frank Clark).
Rob – what have you heard about this Will Levis guy from Kentucky? Any thoughts on him?
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/kentucky-quarterback-will-levis-is-the-real-deal
These are my favorite comments.
💯
WAS A JOKE, YA’LL. ROB LOVES LEVIS!!!!
Safety
Backup QB
Nice name change 🙂
I just saw multiple people responding to Kiper’s draft where the Seahawks get Neal and they said the Seahawks should be ecstatic if this happens. I’m waiting until I hear Rob’s point of view. Should we here at the blog be ecstatic?
I was rooting for Johnson before, but can see a possibly better draft if we can start with Neal.
I’m hoping for these players in this round order:
1st Neal OL
2nd Tindall LB
2nd Bonito Edge
3rd Jurgans OL
4th Pierce
This would beef up our OL, give us amazing speed on D, and give us a reliable tone setter at rb!
Thoughts?
Go Hawks!
Rob was very clear that Neal will be gone with top 5 picks. It will interesting to see if that changes.
The odds are in favor of at least one player from this draft to be a future HOF. Based on pure skill and ability of the player whom would you think it will be?
My vote rests with one of the top two CB’s. I don’t know which one, but I think that there are two, so closely ranked just increases my odds of hitting paydirt.
Kyle Hamilton and Zion Johnson. I think those are the positions where guys can be solid for a long time, irrespective of the team they go to. Next I’d pick a WR that went with a star QB that’s gonna be around a while, like Mahomes or Allen.
Good Seattle mock here from Walter Football.
9. Jermaine Johnson
40. Matt Corral
41. Sam Williams
72. Dameon Pierce
109. Troy Anderson
152. Logan Bruss
153. Percy Butler
https://walterfootball.com/draft2022_5.php
Walter clearly reads this blog, no way his picks are so similar to Robs. He even had Smoke Monday there in his last mock. Good for him to try and see what actual experts of that team think, too many guys just plug player from big board and top need.
Doubling down on DEs is interesting but id JJ falls to us I’d much rather look at Abe Lucas, or since we got Bruss maybe an interior OL with that second pick.
Not bad but imagine what our OLine will look like… LT – invisible man,
LG – Damien Lewis on the wrong side , C – Austin Blythe, bridge player, RG – Invisible man once Jackson is cut, RT – invisible man or maybe Bruss as a rookie thrown in?
Scary. I hope you believe in Drew Lock’s toughness and ability to stay healthy.
But we got Will Dissly to block. We good.
Yeah! Tell the rest of the league to keep their filthy hands off of our usually injured blocking TE and first round RB! LA, you can keep your number one ranked O-Linemen to yourselves! We’ve got our own journeymen here in Seattle. Don’t even think about it, San Fran.
SoZ-
If an oline built in the usual style was *good* enough for Wilson then it’s damn sure good enough for Lock…to then get greviously injured and Smith to figure out how much he can legitimately earn through incentives.
Isn’t it weird how Seattle’s offensive line consistently graded as middle of the pack and yet when watching their games Russ had instant pressure to deal with so often? His running around “extending plays” extended from avoiding instant sacks to big plays, to running into late sacks. He did usually keep his eyes downfield while running around, which seems remarkable to an average guy like me.
But yeah it definitely felt like a less Barry Sanders-like QB was going to get ground to a pulp back there. I hope PCJS realize that…Drew’s too young to die!
Assuming we could grab Strange or Linderbaum instead of Williams/Corral, it would be Brown / Bruss / Strange / Lewis / Lucas, which looks pretty good to me.
Okay starting 3 rookies along the OL who are unproven in the NFL, including a rookie center looks pretty good? That seems a bit much to me. Every scenario I can think of at this point except the Seahawks signing Brown and maybe Fisher or Shell sounds highly concerning, oh wait that’s concerning too. What to do? Any good free agents left?
Well you could very easily resign Duane, if Jackson is cut now Damien Lewis is no longer on the wrong side and Haynes can play LG. RT still a question mark.
💯
Tony Pauline interview on the podcast and YouTube later today
Wonderful, and thank you ahead of time
Nice. Looking forward to it!
Looking forward to it. The anticipation for the draft is building and your posts and interviews make me feel informed. I quote you shamelessly to my friends. “Rob says (fill in blank), so book it.”
Video of Sam Williams vs Miss St. Highlights 2 things we’ve been saying. Sam Williams is pretty good and Charles Cross is overrated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GVOEd2rFBo&ab_channel=Talkin%27Football
I just watched this video of Sam Williams. Charles Cross had a hell of a time trying to block him. But yet many have us taking Charles Cross. The narrator (Bob Skinner) Mentioned PFF. PFF has Charles Cross rank in the top ten. The only way Cross could block Williams was by HOLDING HIM. The narrator called the people at PFF “idiots”. Williams constantly pressured the Mississippi State QB. In fact, you could say that Williams embarrassed the OTs for Mississippi State (including Charles Cross). Skinner constantly mentioned that Williams has something you cannot teach. (Speed) Skinner also mentioned how Williams was constantly moving his feet. Williams has first round speed. In fact his numbers are very comparable to Aiden Hutchinson.
There are many mock drafts that have the Seahawks taking Charles Cross. These people making projections do they even watch film?
Henry: Excellent video. Appreciate it.
The Hawks are going to have plenty of defensive talent to choose from at the #9 pick. I am NOT going to be happy if they go need over value.
BTW: The Seahawks are not the only team in the NFC West that has problems. Kyler Murray wants to be paid. In three years Murray has 70 TD passes. That is exactly 23.3 TD passes per year. Down the home stretch the Cardinals went from 10-2 to 11-7. When the Cardinals needed Murray the most they lost 5 of 6. Now Murray wants Drew Prescott money. Really. Murray is not NOT worth what he wants. Have fun Arizona.
In San Francisco Deebo Samuel reportedly wants out. What he is really saying is that he wants to be paid. In the case of Samuel. Samuel deserves Tyreek Hill money or close to it. Down the home stretch Samuel was the offense for the 49ers. San Francisco we have a problem.
In Los Angeles. Cooper Kupp is extremely underpaid. And there are whispers that Aaron Donald wants more money. These were far and away the two most imporant players for the Rams in the Super Bowl. The question is. Where do the Rams get all this money to pay these players. It seems like the Rams are the only team in the NFL that can spend and spend and spend. And have no salary cap issues. Go figure.
Meanwhile: Seattle doesn’t seem to have money to pay Duane Brown. Duane Brown is a quality human being. Works hard. Team leader. Especially on the offensive line. And is still a very good player. But yet the Hawks don’t seem to have money to pay Duane Brown. Another head shaker.
As much as I would discord and mayhem in LA, I dont see problems.
Kupp JUST signed an extension a year ago. Sure he might be underpaid for his production this year, but it was reasonable compared to what he had done before. He’s got another couple years on it and its VERY affordable to them.
Donald is still under contract for another year, and flirted with retirement this year. He may want more money, sure, but who doesn’t? I see it more as the Rams looking to offer him more to entice him to stick around another couple years more than him demanding/looking for it.
Frankly, I see it as a non story as much as I would wish otherwise.
A blurb I read today stated Kupp has already said he doesn’t need to be paid like Adams, Hill, et. al. He’ll want more but doesn’t need to be at the top of the scale. Solid Eastern Washington kid.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33768667/cooper-kupp-says-not-trying-beat-anybody-reaches-extension-los-angeles-rams
Now Deebo in SF, got a feeling that’s a whole different story.
Do you pay Kyler though? Lesser QBs have gotten paid like Cousins and Carr. He’s been producing at a franchise QB level at least in terms of season stats for 3 years. Ironically, I think paying him was a no-brainer until his little contract drama saga started this offseason.
That playoff loss was pretty rough sledding.
Both sides are kind of screwed. AZ literally doesn’t have to do anything right now including trading him.
And….this is just me….I think Kyler would havea much smaller market than he realizes. A team would have to give up a haul and immediately sign him to that 200 million level and if that team wasn’t built right now how would you build around a player once the cash and picks are gone? One that looks like they might be an injury risk moving forward.
Plus he’s sort of shown his hand. What’s to say two years into a four contract he doesn’t decide he’s now worth even more?
I get people hate the former qb here. But russ until last year and most certainly during the great years you would have never seen such a pissy display like the last half of AZ’s season. From play to attitude.
I’m not a Kyler Murray fan either. He’s flashy but I’ve never thought he was anywhere near Russ’s abilities. Every time I watch the Cards it feels like I’m watching PeeWee football with all the little kids running around haphazardly. I don’t think he will get what he is looking for and I would not be at all surprised to see he get traded.
Also, I haven’t seen people say they hate Russ. Just tired of his shtick. Now he is Denver’s problem and he is their new shiny toy. I hope he does well in the AFCW.
Traded to whom though?
AZ is a pretty good team and they haven’t made any noise since he’s been there. I get football is a team effort and all the wins and losses shouldn’t be on one player but I’m honestly not sure what you’re getting from him.
I get this sense that AZ might not get a great offer for him. Maybe someone like Atlanta?
Football is so much about narratives. Media will say he’s “electric,” or “dynamic,”…..but his best seasons aren’t even as good as a Wilson down year. Then it’s the attitude. Maybe win a playoff game before your agent is issuing memorandums on your behalf.
If Deshaun Watson can find that big of a market, Murray will too.
Maybe.
The difference being texans needed him gone and AZ has all the leverage in the world. And since he doesn’t have a no trade clause if he’s unhappy in AZ wait til AZ either doesn’t acquiesce, pay him, or trades him to whatever team they feel like…..and then that team is still under no obligation to pay him.
Dirtbaggery aside. Watson > murray.
Probably some team would do it. I wouldn’t give a guy with Wentz level production in his arm and recent injuries a ton of anything.
C’mon.
Houston got 3 first round picks, a third and two fourths for Watson. That’s one of the biggest trade packages in NFL history.
I don’t follow. The texans did or did not need Watson gone?
Sure they got a massive haul. There’s a pretty vast canyon between telling everyone you’re cutting amari cooper and get change back in a trade and everyone knowing you need Watson gone and teams doing backflips for him. You know full well one is a spendy wr and one is the most important position in all of sports.
Teams could have tried to low ball cause they knew he had to go but it just takes two teams to start bidding.
This isn’t just me thinking murray might nit be that special. Chriss Simms for weeks has been discussing whether or not murray is worth it.
A few days ago he was discussing that there’s every chance he’s not even a top ten qb in the league. And if russ is losing his mobility what even is Murray’s game when he gets hobbled?
Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe murray gets three firsts and a quarter billion guaranteed. But i doubt it.
You seem dead set on discounting his trade value.
I’m not saying Arizona will get exactly what the Texans got or more.
Simms has fair points but conventional wisdom was also that Watson’s baggage, his bad attitude and his extracurricular activity would dampen his market. It didn’t. That’s all I was pointing out.
Peter these are all very valid points. Isn’t it funny how Murray and Russell are about the same height but don’t play that way?
Playoff wins don’t seem to be required anymore for a helicopter load of cash. How many playoff games has Derek Carr won? He’s on his third deal right?
What should happen and what is happening to QBs in the NFL are two very different things. I personally believe it’s outrageous to give them 40 to 50 million but I don’t see that stopping. It could just keep rising.
You give away a haul of picks and a big chunk of your cap to him, hamstringing your 2 ways of building a championship. It doesn’t make sense unless you are the proverbial “a QB away.”
Now would other teams trade that 3 firsts and pay 40 mil plus for Murray? I think in a heartbeat. Teams even paid Peekaboo-willy Watson (allegedly)
250 or so guaranteed!
I could see Carolina going after him, but do they have the picks?
Just based on this year the Texans, Giants, Jets, or Eagles might be able to put together a tantalizing package of picks. Which team wouldn’t massively upgrade their QB position with Murray? Isn’t he better than Jalen Hurts?
Houston makes the most sense. Giants have no money. Jets have a new qb. Eagles have the picks but I’m not sure about the money.
Yes the Jets have a new QB who they’ve drafted too high to replace just yet, as the Cardinals did when drafting Murray to replace Rosen the next season. Or not? Zach Wilson didn’t show up in the league and instantly produce or improve the team like Kyler did.
I think Kyler’s little squabble will get him paid and then end up in the rearview because there’s nobody the Cardinals can replace him with unless they pick top 3 next year. His agent’s statement was pretty ridiculous though.
Murray also seems to be hurt the latter half of every season. He fades and the teams fades late in the year. He’s not a solid framed guy like Russ which is why the injury susceptibility imo.. Combine that with his attitude and I’d want no part of him.
The latest Barnwell mock is why my gut has been hurting so much, lately. Hilarious stuff.
These trade scenarios are off the charts ridiculous. Especially anything including DK and picks. It’s as if DK has middle tier receiver value to them.
My bold surprise prediction: Murray traded by draft.
My sources tell me Landry is signing with the Saints today. Book it.
Possibly the Seahawks over-rely or misuse OL explosive metrics given their draft track record.
What strikes me when reviewing their history is the emphasis on projects and versatility. The thinking appears to be that since we had success with JR Sweezy, we’ll also have success with Gary Gilliam, George Fant, and Kristjan Sokoli (as opposed to take the money and run). Germain Ifedi, Justin Britt, Ethan Pocic, Reese Odhiambo—it’s a matter of trying them out at different positions and coaching them up.
Of course, this sucks up coaching time and resources that could spent elsewhere and also affects FA signings—when you’re certain that Ifedi and Odhiambo are just a year away, why invest in an established FA when Bradley Sowell can hold the fort in the meantime? Plus, we always have Russell—there’s no chance that he’ll lose confidence in us. Right?
I shed a tear every time I see or hear the name Bradley Sowell. I was at the game where Suh used him like a $20 hooker while playing for Miami and ended up hurting Russ on a sack and Russ was hobbled for half that season
Bradley Sowell and Sokoli are the 2 guys that are the absolute poster children for the fiasco at o-line we’ve seen over the years.
Oh you mean kind of like how Donald and the Rams ruin their hopes every season by skipping over the collection of used cars on the Seahawks line I mean lawn?
That game may have been the beginning of the end for Russell. He comes close to tearing up his knee for good, and the front office is so concerned that it signs Luke Joeckel in the off-season. Even trading for Duane Brown sent mixed messages: Sure, they finally replaced Okung, but they had to be desperate and the price had to be right.
Just speculating. Could Deebo Samuel be headed to the NY Jets? Samuel would be perfect for the Jets. San Francisco gets draft picks for Samuel. Just speculating.
Geno Smith: The details are out on his contract. Smith is only guaranteed $500,000. With incentives to go to 3.5mil. Totally different situation. By signing Smith to only a $500,000 guarantee the Seahawks have not boxed themselves into a corner. They have options.
Value over Need
Don’t sleep on Drew Lock(Shelby Harris)
The next 10 days or so will be fascinating to watch.
There are potentially as many as 4 top-level WRs available in trade PLUS a draft with some players who have that potential, and a pretty healthy stock of players who could be a not-significant step down from those guys.
Teams on both sides will have some interesting decisions to make.
Now that Deebo has officially requested a trade, it should get really interesting. He was the best weapon SF has, better than Kittle IMHO.
Now that’s interesting.
He is definitely a physical player that is put more in harms way than most WRs, but man, is he an exciting player to watch.
The ‘issues with how he’s used’ angle is intriguing if true.
He’s a great standalone WR but his versatility makes him a real weapon. But if he doesn’t want to play that way out of fear of shortening his career, that makes for a very interesting angle.
Isn’t he a self proclaimed “wideback” ?
Might just be his agent using the media to strengthen their position.
Bummer to see this… I’m a Deebo fan.
Deebo is really fun to watch. I’m hoping he goes to KC.
Yeah, somewhere in the AFC. Can Indy afford him? Less pressure to be a RB but still a dynamic playmaker for Ryan to take advantage of.
I’m preparing for Debo to the Packers. 9ers recoup draft stock, Pack reloads the WR position, Hawks scratch their butts.
The best player in the entire draft…?? Per Breer’s sources:
I find it utterly preposterous that anyone thinks Cross is the best player in this draft.
Name names or stfu because I think Breer is full of crap on this.
FWIW Sam Gold likened him to Laremy Tunsil in his scouting.
Sea mode: You better watch this video on Sam WIlliams. The only way Charles Cross could block him was by HOLDING Williams.
After you watch this video you might think twice about Charles Cross
Seamode: Here is the flim on Williams/Charles Cross https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GVOEd2rFBo
6017, 225, 32 3/8 arms
So undersized, but nice agility numbers.
Any update to the 30 visits?
Not since I last posted the link. We know 20 of the 30 so far. Not sure if any were local.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J3d023YdKp9MFv7OQTy0YTssJ65qLd_aB0UJFGVHxPY/edit?usp=sharing
Per NFL Trade Rumors WR Danny Gray, SMU and S Lewis Cine, Georgia coming in. Josh Norris the source I believe.
Would you trade one of 40/41 for Deebo?
It would eliminate the need to draft RB (and WR to the extent they were gonna go that way).
If he’s saying there are issues with how he is used you probably wouldn’t trade for him and use him like that.
I don’t see it. It doesn’t fit how Pete Carroll wants to play ball. We are already paying Tyler and need to pay DK. Can we afford to pay another WR?
Ah yes, blog friend Jeff just gettin’ that dig in on the 9ers. Well played Jeff.
Rob I was watching Charles Cross tape I don’t recall seeing him in a three point stance. Kinda concerning run plays. not sure if works for the Seahawks.i listen to a interview with Cam. Jurgens he has high School field and track background with shot put and disk I guess he did pretty well at it not sure if that means anything.
Not interested in Charles Cross. Cross is OVERRATED big-time.
Few points. Darrell Stingley Jr. is rising up the charts. Another point. It seems that Kenny Pickett is being mocked to the Carolina Panthers. One week from tomorrow.
Can’t wait to hear the Tony Pauline interview.
Value over need!
Don’t sleep on Drew Lock (Shely Harris)!
Saw the rumor above that Lewis Cine, Safety, may be coming in for a visit.
If that’s true that puts it at near half dozen safeties they’ve brought in or had meetings with. Some seem like UDFA types but Hamilton abd Cine are immininetly high picks.
Rob had that great piece about Sam Williams but I am starting to wonder if we’ve been skipping over picking safety as the “seahawky,” thing to do?
Talk of three safety concepts. One player is injured. Another player needs a ton of cover to maximize his value. And is injured.
I like Cine
Where’s the rumour from though?
HawksLifer posted this above…
https://twitter.com/JoshNorris/status/1516230278506811395?s=20&t=5UTV9KJGXLsFCyctqj5oCA
I find it very perplexing that they are meeting many safeties and including Cine an Hamilton. Granted the Hamilton was just a zoom meeting. Maybe they are bringing in Cine to discuss the rest of the Georgia players in an attempt no tip there cards?
hahah Here is a complete silly speculation with nothing to substantiate it… they have a potential draft day deal in place for DK to a team if that team doesnt get the wr they want. For instance, if Wilson goes before Jets 10, then the jets will give 10 and 38 for DK. Diggs caught wind of it and told them to move him if they trade DK (because Diggs made it clear he only signed because PC said it wasnt a rebuild). So Hawks are planning to have to repalce Diggs potentially.
Orrrrrr… Desai doesnt like Adams and is pushing PC to move him and replace him
Conspiracies become increasingly implausible in direct proportion to their complexity and the # of people whose silence is required to keep them on the QT.
Besides, I like your option B scenario a lot, haha! 😉
That’s a report not a rumour — cast iron
Interesting
To be fair there’s value to be had at safety in certain areas. It’s a shame they’ve spaffed as much resource as they have on the position already
Rob, love the blog, monthly subscriber for years
What about bringing back your weighted explosiveness scoring? As I recall you weighted for height and weight? I could be remembering wrong.
I’ve got the marks for this class so happy to do another piece before next week looking at weighted TEF
Thank you very much. Looking forward to it.
I realize safetys are important. But so are corners, linebackers defensive lineman etc. etc.
I think(maybe) because Russell Wilson wanted more talent the Hawks made the trade for Adams. They will never admit it. That the trade was a DISASTER.
The Short Shuttle is a great tell for an NFL OL.
The average has been 4.75 for starters over the last decade or so and when you take guys who did poorly in the TEF like Jack Conklin, you find he had a great SS time.
I suggest you read this.
You’ll discover what is a true ‘tell’
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/why-explosive-traits-matter-on-the-offensive-line