Garrett Nussmeier review vs South Carolina

This was my third time watching LSU this season and on each occasion I’ve been impressed with Nussmeier. While he had some sloppy moments at the end of the South Carolina game on Saturday, he still led his team to victory while flashing anticipation, accuracy, a NFL arm with touch and good decision making. He was also facing a strong defense with NFL talent in a hostile road environment with an excellent home crowd in attendance. LSU had to win this game and they did, mostly thanks to their quarterback.

With 2:45 remaining in the first half, he steps into the pocket knowing he’s going to get drilled. He still delivered a fantastic layered strike 25 yards down the seam:

He did well to deliver this pass over the top of one defender and in-between two others while facing pressure. Look at this screen-shot to see the margin for error, while knowing you’re about to get blasted by a pass-rusher:

That is a NFL-level throw.

Then there’s this pass with 13:40 left in the third quarter. Again he faces pressure from his left side. Nussmeier throws as he’s contacted by the edge rusher and still delivers a 40 yard dime exploiting 1v1 coverage on the outside. Note how long the ball hangs in the air. This is perfect loft and touch on the pass, with enough velocity to get it downfield. It’s also a very catchable ball — you can throw with too much arm when you go deep. This is touch plus velocity plus accuracy:

The anticipation and direction on the throw is excellent — he delivers the ball to an area where he anticipates the receiver will be, long before he’s anywhere near the spot. This is an exceptional deep throw.

He had a key conversion on 3rd and 7 with 3:42 left in the third quarter. It’s a three-step drop from the shotgun with seven defenders at the LOS. He anticipates pressure and six defenders rush. He drops, throws off balance knowing he had a slant route as the hot and he executes for a first down. This is a good sign — he understood the situation, knew he didn’t have time to waste and had to get the ball out quickly. He knows where the hole in the defense will be and a receiver runs right into that spot. He beats the pressure with a quick throw. Textbook — and the kind of play he’ll need to make all the time in the NFL.

Most college quarterbacks are not running an offense like this. They operate in one-read systems with the decision making coming from the coaches on the sideline. Typically when the read isn’t open, they take off and improvise. This is Nussmeier basically running a translatable pro system.

With 12:25 left in the fourth quarter he again faced a key 3rd and 9 from inside his own red zone. South Carolina rushed five. He stays in the pocket, accepts pressure will come and throws the best anticipation throw I’ve seen this season for a conversion. The receiver is only just breaking to the sideline and Nussmeier throws to an area his target will run in to, with the defensive back not even facing the play. This is a NFL throw. It’s the kind of thing you have to do every week in the pro’s — where you have far smaller windows and time to throw. This is again superb from Nussmeier:

I’ve studied virtually every game the top draftable quarterbacks have played since the 2021 season. Do you know how many quarterback I see sitting in a pocket, trusting their protection and throwing with the level of anticipation as per the video above? It’s extremely rare.

After this play things became sloppy. There was a fumbled snap that hit him in the chest and a lousy red zone interception that almost cost LSU the game. He didn’t read the dropping defender and threw it straight to him. In this instance, he completely botched the pre-snap read and post-snap diagnosis. He was under no pressure. It’s one of the easiest interceptions you’ll see thanks to a poor piece of judgement from the quarterback. It should’ve been a pick-six but the play was overturned because a defender I’ll praise in a moment stupidly took a cheap shot at Nussmeier on the return. Instead, it gave LSU another chance to get the ball back and win.

To his credit, he capitalised. On a 4th and 3 play at the South Carolina 42-yard line he executesd a perfect hard-count to draw an offside penalty in a way Aaron Rodgers would’ve been proud of. He earns a five-yard penalty and a first down. On the next play he throws perfectly to the left pylon for a massive completion, setting up first and goal. LSU won the game by punching it in shortly after.

So what’s his ceiling? He certainly has translatable skills. I don’t doubt that he’ll come into the NFL and pick things up on a technical level. He’ll be better prepared than most and it’s probably no coincidence given his father is the current Eagles QB coach and has previously spent time coaching Justin Herbert in LA and Dak Prescott in Dallas in the same role.

However, he doesn’t have special traits. He’s decent at everything physically but not an X-factor. He’s not a Josh Allen or Justin Herbert type with the size, cannon arm and athleticism. He’s not a scrambling dynamo or an improv genius. He’s pretty good in a lot of ways but the special traits are missing.

The question becomes — can the technical qualities, understanding and translatable structure/tape compensate at the next level for not being a physical difference maker? We see quarterbacks do it — but can this quarterback do it? That’s what teams need to work out.

I like him though. He is a NFL talent, even if his ceiling is probably mid-level starter complementing a good team, rather than being the kind of ‘saviour of the franchise’ talent. There are players in the NFL, some that are earning a lot of money, with similar strengths and weaknesses.

I do wonder if a lack of starting experience might mean it’s more likely he returns to LSU in 2025. After waiting so long to start, I’m not sure he’ll be rushing to the pro’s. His dad being in the NFL will also provide some perspective on the importance of sticking in college to gain playing experience.

A final note, there’s been a lot of change at PFF recently in terms of the media personalities who front their various podcasts and articles. I don’t know if something similar is happening behind the scenes. While I appreciate Nussmeier had some iffy moments late in the game and missed at least one opportunity to throw downfield vs South Carolina, a 64.5 grade did not feel appropriate for this performance.

This was a big game for LSU, against an unbeaten SEC opponent on the road and a good defense. He made three big time throws per PFF, the same as Cam Ward against the hopelessly overmatched Ball State. Yet Ward received a 90.6 grade for essentially a bunch of extended hand-offs against an opponent Miami hammered 62-0. I watched the game and it just left me wondering if the Ball State players were allergic to the Miami jersey’s. They didn’t seem to want to tackle or cover.

Ward’s completion percentage was still only 67.9% (19/28). It seems he was rewarded for scoring a bunch of simple touchdowns, aided by non-existent coverage/tackling, against an inferior opponent. Nussmeier was penalised for not being flawless in a far trickier environment but ultimately contributing as much as anyone to a great win.

The grading difference between the two cannot be 64.5 and 90.6.

Other notes from LSU vs South Carolina & general draft thoughts

I didn’t understand LSU’s Will Campbell being projected as a top-10 pick before the college season began. I didn’t see that on tape. Nothing so far this season has changed my mind. For me, he might not even be able to stick at tackle. He struggles with speed off the edge and I wouldn’t want him protecting the blind-side. At the moment I’m giving him a day-two grade at guard.

I much preferred his team mate Emery Jones who played with a lot more physicality and toughness at right tackle. Even so, he hasn’t had a great start to the season either. I have him currently marked as a fringe first rounder. What I would say is — a lot of the mock drafts you’re seeing online are full of absolute nonsense. Trust me. There are players out there lazily being projected early without any justification.

Even some of the legit players — Mason Graham and Will Johnson at Michigan for example — are not pulling up any trees. They’ll still go early. Malaki Starks the safety at Georgia is legit. Kelvin Banks, who may also need to kick inside to guard, is legit. Colston Loveland the tight end and Abdul Carter the defensive X-factor also warrant consideration early. Yet the biggest name living most up to the hype currently is probably Colorado’s receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter. I’ve never watched a player like him. On Saturday he had 13 catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns and also had an interception and five tackles. He is genuinely unique.

This is a muddled draft with little to be excited about at the top end. This is particularly highlighted by the quarterbacks. Quinn Ewers started well but is injured again. Shedeur Sanders is mixing some great big time throws with embarrassing comments on the field and off it, as question marks about his suitability as a franchise leader grow. Carson Beck looked pretty ‘meh’ against Kentucky. God’s speed to the desperate teams destined to pick in the top-10.

Back to the LSU/South Carolina game, TJ Sanders is an excellent defensive tackle for the Gamecocks and a player I have graded currently as a potential fringe first rounder. He is DT2 on my early, developing draft board behind Mason Graham and ahead of Tyleik Williams. I’m also intrigued to see how Kyle Kennard the edge rusher tests. He’s the player who gave away the dumb penalty on Nussmeier that probably cost South Carolina the game. However, to his credit he faced the media and apologised for the play — receiving praise from his Head Coach for taking responsibility. I think he has day-two potential and already has five sacks, seven TFL’s and two fumbles after three games. Finally, I really like South Carolina safety Nick Emmanwori and have him graded in round two at the moment.

The reality with Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe

I saw a tweet from an Athletic draft writer at the weekend, claiming, “You can literally see growth happening here” in terms of Milroe’s development under Kalen DeBoer.

I’m immediately sceptical anytime I see anyone misuse the word ‘literally’. Pedantic as this may be, I didn’t literally see Milroe grow during his trip to Wisconsin. But I thought I’d watch the tape to see if there’s a nugget of truth about his development which wasn’t apparent when I watched Alabama’s opening two games against Western Kentucky and USF.

I’m going to be honest with you. It’s total bollocks to suggest there’s anything different about Milroe after three games. It doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t happen. He’s had three games with DeBoer. Michael Penix Jr had an entire spell at Indiana with DeBoer before coming to Washington. He knew the offense. This could take time. But let’s not manufacture a narrative that he’s developed as a passer because it isn’t true.

The player I’m watching in 2024 is the same player I watched in 2023. Milroe is a terrific athlete playing quarterback. He is not a sophisticated passer. He has a good arm and he’s very capable of getting the ball downfield. He has a terrific build similar to that of a running back. He’s a dynamic runner and can be an X-factor in the ground game. He wasn’t an anticipation thrower delivering passes within a complex structure last season and that remains the case. He still doesn’t methodically work a defense through scheme.

Too often it’s a one read and run approach with Milroe. He doesn’t play with much pocket presence at all. He’ll check his read and set off if it isn’t there, trying to create as a runner. Sometimes he won’t even come off the one read. A case in point against Wisconsin, he eyed a check-down immediately on 3rd and 4 and telegraphed where he was going with the football. He hitched, then threw, and by the time the ball got to the receiver the defender was ready to pounce and make a tackle for no gain. Time to punt.

Real development would be examples of Milroe staying patience in the pocket, making different reads, attacking the middle of the field, throwing a range of passes including layered passes. What we typically see is a somewhat limited route tree with a big emphasis on the deep-ball and his running ability.

I don’t even think he’s really improved his deep-accuracy. DeBoer is excellent at scheming opportunities and he had some great play-calls to open receivers downfield. Milroe executed these throws but even then you see him sitting waiting for the player to uncover with minimal or no pressure, then he throws to an open man. The NFL doesn’t work this way. He will face so much more pressure, he’ll need to make an incredibly varied range of throws. He won’t be able to take off as much as he does.

His accuracy is inconsistent. He doesn’t attack the seam or the middle of the field much. I’d describe him as a fantastic athlete and a brilliant read-option college quarterback. My fear for the NFL is teams will just sit in cover-two and take away the deep ball, forcing him to work the middle while spying his runs. While he’s a big, physical runner with speed — he lacks Lamar Jackson’s dynamic suddenness to threaten and keep opponents honest.

If you combined Garrett Nussmeier and Jalen Milroe you’d have a heck of a player. I’m afraid at the moment Milroe reminds me too much of Malik Willis in terms of a quarterback and unless he can take steps to become more rounded, he’ll likely go in the same range in the draft (at best) as a player with physical qualities who is going to need a lot of development to start in the NFL. If people are hoping for a Jalen Hurts type of player, Hurts was a far more accomplished passer by the time he left Oklahoma. There’s still time for Milroe to take a big step but it’s premature to suggest it’s happened already.

Two other notes from this game. I remain a big fan of Wisconsin left tackle Jack Nelson and have a second round grade on him. I think he’s better suited to right tackle or guard but he’s extremely tough, he’s adept at turning opponents and finishing, he can brawl as well as anyone and while he doesn’t have elite-level footwork to stick on the blind-side at the next level, he’s not a slouch either. Sadly though, it wasn’t good news for Tyler Van Dyke. He tore an ACL in the game. He turns 24 next March. It’s hard to know what his next move is, having transferred from Miami to Wisconsin this year.

Final notes

— I watched a lot of Missouri last season and was impressed with quarterback Brady Cook, enough to talk about him when he was mostly not discussed anywhere else. I don’t really understand why — he’s better than some other quarterbacks who are being debated a ton.

As with Nussmeier — the big thing that stood out was his efficiency on third down. He had multiple conversions, including one on fourth down. He ended the game with a big third and 7 completion when protecting a six point lead against a dangerous opponent. Cook delivered a good, accurate and not easy throw to the left sideline. Then on a 3rd and 2 he scrambled to ice the game.

He has a reasonable arm, he can move around and scrambles well. I don’t think he has a supremely high ceiling in terms of big-time traits but he’s well sized and looks a bit bigger this season. Cook threw over the middle, showed he can deliver layered passes and this was an accomplished display. He is a big reason why Missouri has been so successful over the last season and a bit.

He’ll have plenty of opportunities to raise his stock playing in the SEC, with games against Alabama, Oklahoma and South Carolina down the line. It’s tricky to project his range at this point but I do think he’s underrated by the media and some NFL teams will feel he has sufficiently intriguing skills to warrant a closer look.

— Carson Beck had a really odd game against Kentucky. On the one hand, Georgia got the job done as they often do. Yet Beck missed some throws, risked turnovers and just didn’t look all that special for a player often touted as a potential top-10 pick. He did, however, still have some nice throws delivered with velocity and accuracy. His next game is at Alabama, a must-watch (obviously).

— Quinn Ewers left the game against UTSA with an abdominal strain. It’s since been reported he’ll miss the next game and then likely return. Texas appears pretty committed to Ewers, despite the clamour for Arch Manning. There will be pressure on Ewers, though, when he does return — because Manning looked so good in relief on Saturday. Let’s not lose sight though that as exciting as Manning clearly is — Ewers also looked terrific pre-injury. It is a concern though that he’s injured again. The two things we needed to see from Ewers this year was a clean bill of heath and greater consistency. He’s banged up already. Kelvin Banks also got hurt for Texas against UTSA but it doesn’t appear serious.

— Defensive lineman Mykel Williams, hyped for his potential and not his production at Georgia, missed the game against Kentucky. He hasn’t taken the step forward that many anticipated so far. He’s not alone though — Tennessee’s edge rusher James Pearce Jr has zero sacks in three games, had PFF grades of 63.8 against NC State and 60.1 against Chattanooga and his stat line only shows three tackles, one QB hit and two hurries. So much more was expected of him.

— It’s such a shame that the questions about Shedeur Sanders are there. He should be the clear favourite to go first overall based on talent alone. In a high-pressure game for Colorado against rival Colorado State, he completed 36/49 passing for 310 yards and four touchdowns. He had some great throws, while playing behind a terrible O-line. It’s true he looks too often for the big play instead of taking what the defense offers but he frequently pulls off the big play anyway.

That said, he was still throwing downfield late in the game (again) when killing clock was more important. You get the impression that Colorado in its current form exists mostly to showcase Shedeur — including playing his rap song after touchdowns are scored, delaying the band playing the fight song. He hammers the O-line publicly, yaps at Nebraska players at the coin toss. Look at the state of this. You do have to wonder how he’s going to handle someone other than his dad being his coach.

— This is starting to look like a good tight end class. Penn State’s Tyler Warren really caught my eye and I currently have him as TE2 behind Colton Loveland with a good second round grade (pre-testing). Mitchell Evans, Jake Briningstool and Mason Taylor also look like potential day two picks, with others in the running for rounds 3-5.

— There’s some good depth at running back starting to emerge too. Ashton Jeanty at Boise State has a chance to be a first round pick, while Georgia’s Trevor Etienne could also work into the top-45. I enjoyed watching Nicholas Singleton and DJ Giddens but the player I want to highlight today is Utah transfer Ja’Quinden Jackson, now playing for Arkansas. He’s brilliantly sized, has superb contact balance, runs through tackles and has a burst of speed. He’s taken his game to a new level early this season and looks tremendous. He’s definitely one to watch.

— I currently have 100 players graded on my early horizontal board. Some of these grades will adapt and adjust as the season goes on and there are others I want to watch before publishing it. I may do a stream soon, though, specifically to discuss some of the players I think are underrated/overrated and discuss the quarterbacks and potential round one types.