Some thoughts on Russell Wilson’s ‘deadline day’

1. This has been as ugly as expected

Threats to call off talks indefinitely, threats of breaking off talks altogether, rumours about trades to New York and mystery about Wilson’s desire to stay in Seattle.

This was always going to be a contentious affair. Both parties appear willing to do their bidding through the media and so it has proved.

The big question is — was it all posturing? An attempt to gain whatever leverage was available? Trying to win the PR battle? Or is there a serious disconnect here?

Deadlines often bring results. We’ll see if both parties are willing to compromise. It’s on both parties though. The Seahawks have to be willing to make Wilson the highest paid player in the league. Wilson has to be prepared to not change the face of NFL contracts forever.

2. Will they trade him if they can’t sign a deal today?

It seems virtually impossible. How many potential suitors are there? And how many are willing to pay a kings ransom in trade compensation then offer the kind of deal Wilson is seeking?

The New York Giants have the picks but don’t have a competitive roster. They’re seemingly prepared to roll with Eli Manning for one more season. They need to use #6, #17 and #37 to build their team. Next year, with Manning almost certainly done in New York, it would make sense to consider a big splash at quarterback. Currently that doesn’t seem likely and they may prefer to draft a young, affordable signal caller anyway.

There aren’t any real alternatives. The Raiders reportedly didn’t have the cash to put Khalil Mack’s full guarantees in escrow. Why would things be any different now? The Chargers are more likely to consider a move when Philip Rivers moves on. Twelve teams have drafted young quarterbacks in recent history. Several others have established starters while the Vikings signed Kirk Cousins a year ago and Jacksonville just paid Nick Foles.

Adam Schefter put together a report for ESPN earlier highlighting the issue:

“As for suggestions that the Seahawks could trade Wilson if he does not sign a new deal, there are no obvious teams willing to surrender draft picks or pay Wilson what he is seeking, sources said.”

If Wilson cuts off talks with the Seahawks an eventual trade becomes more likely but not this year.

3. So what would happen?

In all likelihood there’d be a dose of damage limitation from both parties, knowing there’s no alternative but to play out the 2019 season. This would become the status quo until a development emerged (either a serious trade offer or fresh contract talks).

We’ve been saying since the end of the 2018 season — if anyone was going to bet on himself it was Russell Wilson. The aggressive talks and seemingly improbable demands (eg wanting a percentage of the cap) are probably a sign of this. For Wilson it could easily be a case of make me an incredible offer or I’ll do a Kirk Cousins.

The Seahawks and Wilson might both be comfortable with that situation. It’s likely the team would prefer to bide their time rather than commit to a league-changing contract. Wilson would see the tag as a step closer to reaching the open market.

And while fans may say the Seahawks would be better off trading Wilson than rolling through a slow-dance of uncertainty — you can’t force a team to offer three first round picks. Essentially, both parties are stuck with each other for now.

4. What does this mean for the draft?

Maybe nothing. It all comes down to how they view the quarterback class. If they don’t fancy it there’s not much they can do. I’m going to keep mentioning the name Will Grier though. He does what the Seahawks offense needs. He makes downfield throws, manages the offense and he elevated West Virginia.

For more on Grier’s potential fit click here.

Since December I’ve been touting Kyler Murray and Grier as the two players I can imagine John Schneider admiring. It’s no surprise he attended the Oklahoma vs West Virginia game in person. Murray will go #1 overall. It’s unclear where Grier will land. Some think round one, others round three or later.

For the purpose of this piece let’s say he goes in the #25-#45 range. When the Seahawks trade back from #21 — if they like Grier as much as I think they might — they have to consider drafting him.

If Wilson and the Seahawks aren’t going to talk about a long term contract after today — they have no choice. They have to start identifying quarterbacks to draft. Because if Wilson won’t talk contract he’s either going to be traded in the next three years or he’ll eventually hit the open market.

They can’t and won’t sleepwalk into that. And while everyone will wring their hands about the pick, hammer the front office and complain they didn’t draft an ‘impact’ player — it’d actually be a wise investment for the future.

If/when Wilson leaves you don’t want to hand the keys of the franchise to an unprepared novice. ‘Having one in the chamber’ — as Schneider would put it — is important.

So don’t be shocked if the Seahawks draft a quarterback early this year if Wilson and the team don’t agree on an extension today.

5. What’s your prediction?

It’s been consistent from the day after the Dallas game. Wilson doesn’t agree a new deal this year, will back himself to play on the tag and in 2020 the team will have a major call to make about their next move. I think they will strongly consider drafting a quarterback, possibly Grier, as insurance for a potential divorce.

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  1. Look Who's Hawkin?

    I for one, would LOVE to see the twitter reaction to Seattle drafting a QB with their first pick.

    The Seahawks blogging community aka Seahawks twitter (and even some of the national blogging community) simply cannot fathom the way the team is being handled. All the hand wringing about the offensive philosophy, the supposed reluctance to “build around Russell Wilson” etc. etc. Can you imagine the level of chaos that would ensue if Will Grier is the name called when Seattle makes their first pick?? Oh man, it would be fantastic. I am very much here for it. They already lose their minds over the way the team is run. That would put them over the edge.

    In all seriousness, I want Russ here. I want him resigned. If he wants to be the league’s highest paid player, he’s earned it. Heck if he wants guarantees past year 1, give it to him (although personally this has never made sense to me as a sticking point. He is a franchise QB, it is not like he is in danger of being cut at any point). BUT where I would draw the line is the supposed point about wanting a contract tied to a % of the cap. If that is true, then Russ is being irrational and Seattle can’t give in. This whole narrative that it is basically on Seattle and that if Russ leaves, it is because Seattle didn’t try hard enough to keep him. Sorry, that’s not the case. Do you think Belicheck achieved his level of success by caving to every star players contract demands? Not a chance. No one player is above the franchise. Offer Russ the richest contract in history, and if he says no, start planning for life after Russ. As much as it kills me to say that.

    • GreenValley

      “BUT where I would draw the line is the supposed point about wanting a contract tied to a % of the cap”

      I had the opposite reaction. If the concern is crippling the team’s ability to compensate other players adequately, tying RW’s contract to a % of cap space enables him to track the skyrocketing market for QBs while also remaining a predictable amount that the team can budget for.

      • Rob Staton

        How do you budget for it though?

        You might know how much Wilson will get per year but then when other players start asking for the same, what do you? You’ve set a precedent. And while other teams like Atlanta and Green Bay feel the benefit of the existing system, you never will.

        Being the highest paid player in the history of the league should be enough.

        • GreenValley

          Given the expected increase in cap and influx of gambling money, it’s reasonable (to me) for players to be asking for more of the riches. Negotiating within moving parameters is lousy. Do you want to buy a $20k car today that might go on sale next week for 17k? Buy a house with an ARM that could hit 15% due to uncontrollable factors? Maybe compensation across the board just should be dealt with as a percentage of cap space. If the cap were stable or growing at the rate of inflation I probably would not have this opinion.

          • Rob Staton

            Nobody knows what’s going to happen to the cap.

            There’s no way a NFL team can budget for a rise that is only a projection at this stage.

  2. Sea Mode

    Pat Kirwan also thinks there is no team that is going to pay RW and fork over the draft capital to trade for him.

    Also threw out an interesting number as a framework for a deal. Maybe the Seahawks control him for 4 years instead of 3?

    2019- $25.28
    2020- $30.3
    2021- $36.36
    2022- $52.43

    4yrs/$144.37m = $36.09 apy

    Sure, it would take some serious forward planning to have $52m to dedicate to the QB position in 2022, but would anyone really be surprised if that’s not too astronomical after what gambling revenue pumps into the NFL economy?

    So, according to him, “The real deadline is in 4 years, actually”

    • John Gryffis

      Nice counter move here by the Hawks in today’s battle between media surrogates. Kirwan and PC are hella tight. There must be some truth to this.

  3. mishima

    I think PC/JS are tired of Rogers/Wilson and ready to move on. Problem: unprepared + no takers.

    Wilson is traded to Miami, next year.

  4. UkAlex6674

    My prediction is he stays for the rest of his career.

    • Rob Staton

      Nothing like a bit of blind faith during a crisis!

  5. Ulsterman

    As well as a Seahawks fan, I’m also a big Ulster rugby fan.
    A few years back, Ulster’s then star player was South African Ruan Pienaar, who was getting offers from top French clubs who would have paid him a lot more money than Ulster could.
    He stayed with Ulster, partly because he had set down roots in Belfast, but also because he said as a Christian he couldn’t allow himself to be motivated by money.
    It just strikes me when you hear Russell Wilson profess his devout Christianity and then you see him here seemingly motivated by money and ego. I’m not saying he should sell himself short, but I’m sure there’s a huge offer on the table for him already but he’s obviously holding out for more.
    Sorry, if that seems like a complete tangent.

    • Hawktalker#1

      Not sure if you can knock RWs faith just because he wants to do his best to negotiate the best deal he can.

      Guys do that every day in the NFL.

      • jujus

        Matthew 6:1 “”Be careful NOT to practice your righteousness in front of others to be seen by them. If you do, you will have no reward from your Father in heaven.”

        The older I get the more I feel RW is a 100% charade. Im still in denial but im getting there.

        • SoCal12

          Damn, we really out here bringing in people’s personal religion over a contract negotiation? I feel like that’s a bit far…

  6. SoCal12

    I’m just curious what kind of offer would get this deal done. I’m not an expert on contracts so I’m wondering if anyone with more insight could offer creative proposals that could be on the table that would be a fair compromise.

    Do you have any proposals you would offer, Rob?

    • Eli

      I wrote this as my guess on a previous post this month:

      Rodgers deal got him $57.5m signing bonus and $98m guaranteed. Realistically we’d have to give a bonus of $60-65m and guarantee of $110-120m.

      My unprofessional estimate is 5 year $180m ($36m APY) – $63m signing bonus, $123.1m guaranteed. New cap figures (used overthecap to model):

      2019 – $5m base 100% guaranteed – $20.9m bonus pro rate – $25.9 cap hit
      2020 – $23.4m base 100% guaranteed – $12.6m bonus pro rate – $36m cap hit
      2021 – $23.4m base 100% guaranteed – $12.6m bonus pro rate – $36m cap hit
      2022 – $25m base – $12.6m bonus pro rate – $37.6m cap hit
      2023 – $27m base – $12.6m bonus pro rate – $39.6m cap hit
      2024 – $27m base – $27m cap hit

      I’m not perfectly in tune with contract dealings but this could end up being a nice meet in the middle deal, Russ sets new benchmarks for APY, guarantees, and bonus, our current cap only goes down by ~ $1m, no guarantees after year 3. It doesn’t look like the Seahawks do roster bonuses so that could change some math (but also lower base salaries) and maybe Russ wants guarantees further out than year 3 – but I feel like this could be a fair deal for both sides. Could be a little too optimistic though.

      • SoCal12

        Seems fair. I guess the big question mark right now is how much of the ‘percentage escalators’ talk is a real demand or a push for other stuff like more guarantees and such. Regardless of personal feelings, Mark Rodgers is one helluva negotiator I’ll give him that much.

      • Sea Mode

        I like your numbers, but I just don’t think RW has any interest in a 5-year deal. He’ll want to re-negotiate a new contract as many times as he can to account for the rising cap, plus get a slice after the new CBA in 2022, so a 3yr deal (or 2yr extension) is about all I see happening at this point.

        • Eli

          I totally agree – but for cap purposes and also trying to account for Russ wanting to maximize his earnings its the only feasible way to do it. The signing bonus is where he’s gonna get the big dollars today and you can’t spread $60m+ over just three years. If you did his cap hits would be like $45m+, or his base salary would be super low and ultimately not be guaranteeing him the amount of money it appears he’s seeking.

          If he only will agree to a 3-year deal then we’re just gonna have to play the franchise tag game with him.

    • Rob Staton

      I’d offer to make him the highest paid in the league on a deal marginally superior to Aaron Rodgers. That’s it. Should be simple. But it isn’t because seemingly Wilson wants to change the league forever.

      • SoCal12

        That’s a reasonable stance. Would you try and finagle some kind of deal involving percentages at all? Perhaps percentage, but only if certain incentives are made. Or a set % that’s less money now, but will escalate to more money. That sort of thing? Or do you think that’s just too much of precedent to set?

        • Rob Staton

          No percentages

      • Elmer

        A question. If Part of Wilson’s compensation was structured as an ownership stake in the franchise (for example, 1% per year) would that count against the cap? Trying to think of creative ways to structure a deal so the team has cap room to equitably compensate the rest of its players.

        My conjecture is that too big a percentage of the cap concentrated in one person could cause morale difficulties. This is, after all, a team game.

      • RealRhino2

        Real question about this: If Wilson isn’t better than Aaron Rodgers, why should he be getting paid more than Aaron Rodgers? I keep hearing he should get the richest contract in history: why? Because it’s more recent? That doesn’t make sense to me. If he wants guaranteed money, he should be paid something less than the tags would pay him. I don’t see what Rodgers has to do with it.

  7. HawkfaninMT

    In terms of percentage of the cap… Does anyone know what this framework looks like?

    Take top QB money, what is percentage of cap, increase by 1%, that’s what RW is asking?


    Take the average cap percentage of SB winning QB over the last 10 years. is that the framework for determining cap percentage?

    If it were the 2nd, I wouldn’t be overly opposed to this.

    • icb12

      It can’t possibly be the 2nd.

      Look at the last superbowl winners-


      2 most expensive when they won were the Manning brothers if my memory is correct. Wilson alone drags the % down. Flacco didn’t get paid until after he won it right? Foles drags it down?

      That average percentage has to be what– 9%? Someone else can do the research/math, but it can’t possibly be high enough for RW to consider.

      • Uncle Bob

        There’s another inherent message in that list that most fans don’t seem capable of understanding/believing. Many will say the Seahawks will sink into mediocrity without Russ, but the other equally, or more likely, outcome is they will never win another Super Bowl with a “franchise” qb that eats up a large chunk of the allowed salary pool. Maybe fans will be satisfied with season after season of, at best, one or two rounds of playoff ball as long as that mentality prevails. Meanwhile, the teams that make the bold moves outside of that meme will be the greater victors.

        • icb12

          I don’t disagree.

          The best way to win in the NFL is with above average QB play at below average pricing.

          The issue is finding that combo, and then the simple fact that above average play doesn’t stay at below average pricing forever.

    • Eli

      I’m interested in how the league would view a cap % deal i.e. is it even allowable? Since its never been done before (to the best of my knowledge) its pretty uncharted territory. I guess I mostly wonder:

      – how would it be structured in length – is it a rolling one-year deal or a five-year deal?
      – if its a rolling one-year deal how would the signing bonus be distributed? Current signing bonuses are pro-rated over five years maximum so if the deal is one-year over and over then Russ would have to sacrifice significant upfront money.
      – When does the contract guarantee? First day of the new season? Is there an out clause if the cap figure rises to an unmanageable amount? Who has the power to opt out of the deal, Russ or the team? So many variables at play.

      Its just so far out there and different than any deal ever signed that I’m not sure how it would be received or if the league would even allow it to occur. In that light I also wonder if it would be possible to sign Russ to a “base deal” with escalators that peg his contract to the highest QB APY – so say he signs a $36m APY deal but then Mahomes signs a new deal for $38m APY, Russ’s contract would automatically adjust upward to match Mahomes APY. Could be an agreeable middle ground for the team and Russ.

    • Brashmouse

      You wouldn’t both give him the top money and then tie that to the cap. If you are going to tie to the cap you ask for a discount to do so. This way he gets increases as the cap escalates but he is never more costly to the team than the team can afford.Something in the way of 16.5%/year would align to $31.05M for 2019 but if the cap raises to 250M would be 41.25M. Offer that and a traditional contract per above and let him choose.

  8. millhouse-serbia

    Russ is at VMAC right now. So he wont hold out.

    • Nolan

      It would be funny if Hawks did a reverse hold out on him and just make him watch OTAs from sidelines and not let him do any practice just watch.

      • Sea Mode


        • Greg Haugsven

          It has to be awkward around there with him walking around. Im sure John and his agent are in another room right now trying to work this out.

  9. Greg Haugsven

    I dont necessarily think you would have to draft one this year. It could be next year as well when you have more draft capital.

    • Rob Staton

      I know a lot of people are desperate not to even consider drafting a QB this year but it makes absolutely no sense to say, ‘nope — don’t have to worry about this until next year’.

      As stated in the piece — you have to start planning NOW. And if you can get someone you like NOW — you avoid being forced to desperately hope you can draft (and then start) a rookie.

      • Greg Haugsven

        I agree that you CAN do it this year but it doesnt have to be. You can always draft one next year as well and get a stop gap free agent. There is more than one way to do it.

        • Rob Staton

          The point is — nobody should be arguing, ‘just wait for next year’ or ‘you don’t have to do it this year’.

          You’re either doing it this year because you have to — or you’re not because somebody else took the guy you like.

          • Hawkin

            I agree, they should’ve been more aggressive the last two offseasons. But I’m not sold Grier is the one to even gamble on. He’s not much better than some of these other names.

            Prediction: they do take a QB, but in round 5 and someone totally unexpected. Just as Penny was unexpected last year

  10. Nolan

    So if no deal is done I expect hawks to leak they offered to makenRuss highest paid player in league he turned it down because of XYZ and put the pressure right back on Russ so he has to answer those questions all season, will be interesting to see how local media plays it if they get tough with Russ or hold his feet to fire in why being the highest paid player in the league wasn’t acceptable.

    • Greg Haugsven

      Russ will get asked all sorts of questions and eventually he will snap.

  11. line_hawk

    I was just rethinking about this and I sense that the reason RW and his camp is making so much noise is because they don’t have much leverage. Ok, they do have some leverage but not as much leverage as is needed for a league altering contract.

    Let’s say that RW becomes a free agent in 2022. He will be 33 years old. Who is going to pay a 33 year old QB league altering money? QB usually start declining by mid 30s. Look at BigBen, Alex Smith, Mannings, even Rodgers. The only big exceptions are Brady and Rivers. Basically, RW will be taking a pretty big risk by playing on the tags. Cousins was 29 when he became a FA. RW will be 33, that’s a big difference IMO. And, that’s not even considering injury risks or the fact that RW is a mobile QB who is sure to decline faster as he ages.

    If RW wants to play on the tag, Seahawks should have no issue. They have the leverage here. They have ample time to draft a QB before 2022. The could do it next year if not this. They better not cave into RW’s antics.

    • astro.domine

      This is a good point. The biggest leverage he has, IMO, is doing what he’s doing now for the foreseeable future: making a fuss in the media, being a distraction for the team; I’m sure Pete isn’t too fond of that prospect.

      • line_hawk

        Yes, the Antonio Brown move.

        I think that will tarnish his image and brand if he creates a distraction. But, only time will tell.

  12. Adog

    My prediction…a deal is done with an option for Russell to opt out after Two years. He gets to be top paid player for a couple years and then trip with new CBA… which may not even include a franchise tag. The Seahawks gain flexibility with their free agents next year…and two more years of Wilson.

    • Rob Staton

      Why would they let Wilson opt out and become a free agent after two years?

      You’ve essentially just said you think they’ll let him waltz out the door and onto the open market in two years.

      That would be nuts.

      • Adog

        Well they let Sherman, Thomas,… Lynch…et Al walk for zero compensation…besides a late round pick and a composition pick. I do not believe that they will get a huge cache of picks for Wilson. Thomas got a great contract and the Ravens have to trade any of their picks. Sign Wilson to two year deal…control your cap…and if he walks…he walks.

        • Rob Staton

          Lynch retired. Thomas has been injured for three straight years. Sherman was cut (and injured).

          There’s a massive difference between that and gifting Wilson his freedom for nothing in two years.

          I can’t think of a worse plan. It’d ensure you get no compensation and there’d be zero motivation for Wilson to consider a long term deal.

    • Jared Marshall

      The one thing you cannot do is give up team control. That’s far worse than franchising him.

  13. Dog

    IF no deal today, could the NYG make an offer?

    The NYG problem is that they need to keep at least one Rd 1 pick in this draft.

    What if the NYG offer was Rd 1 and 2 this year, Rd 1 in 2020, and R1 in 2021?

    If the Rd1 pick this year was #6 plus a 2nd round pick, the immediate effect would be to enable the Seahawks to get back in the game in terms of picks in this draft–enough capital to pick up Grier and some help on D and at TE/WR, and would set the table for a big 2020 draft.

    Do the Seahawks think enough of Paxton Lynch to let him run the team this year while Grier develops? Maybe they do–or else why sign him at all?

    My prediction is no deal today, and Russ will be somewhere other than Seattle by this time next year, with a small chance of something still happening before the draft.

    • Trevor

      Hawks would jump at that deal but no way the Giants offer that and then have to pay Russ what he wants.

    • Rob Staton

      No the Giants won’t make an offer this year

      • Greg Haugsven

        The Giants seem to be pretty happy with there high draft picks. I agree, just dont think they want to lose that draft capital.

  14. kevin mullen

    The OAK Raiders have traded to #4, #24, #27, and next year’s 1st round pick to the SEA Seahawks for Russell Wilson…

    Russ gets his glitz and glamour with Vegas in a couple years, Ciara gets her residency at the Mandalay Bay, quick hour trip to LA or 4.5hr flight to NY. Gruden would have then his QB that matches his early hours attendance. They’d essentially have traded Mack/Amari for offseason pickup of: Wilson, AB, Trent Brown, Tyrell Williams, LaMarcus Joyner. Not a bad facelift to that team.

    • Rob Staton

      The Raiders don’t have the hard cash to do it.

      • All I see is 12s

        Oak is a worse market than Seattle for what Wilson seams to want. If he wanted to sign, he would have by now. All indications are that he wants to leave.
        The good news is that we have him affordable for three years. That’s a long time. Enough time to find his replacement.
        This sucks.

      • Hawkin

        All possible landing spots for RW:

        Steelers (maybe next year)
        Bills (whenever they have a come to Jesus moment that Allen is a bust)
        Tampa (maybe tired of Winston at some point)
        Chargers (though I think Rivers is set on one more shot at SB there)
        Dolphins (major reorg needed to accommodate)
        Redskins (same as dolphins)
        Broncos (maybe include Flaco in trade?)
        Giants (same as dolphins)
        Cowboys (major reorg, plus trade includes Dak) might be an upgrade worthy in their eyes

      • charlietheunicorn

        Very few teams have cap space… including the NY Giants.

  15. Troy

    My hope is that Wilson is signed long term, or that they get a kings ransom for him. However your points are solid, and it may be the case that neither of those options happen.

    Vikings last year seem to would have been the perfect trade partner as they were seemingly only a “qb” away from a Super Bowl, they would have probably ponied up the picks to get him in addition to paying him.

    Thinking outside the box, what about a team with an aging super star QB who doesn’t want to roll the dice on a rookie? New Orleans won’t have brees play forever, Patriots always surprise people, Steelers have to be thinking about bens replacement. I could see an established franchise with an aging vet showing interest in Wilson, the question is which team and how much compensation would they offer.

    • Hawktalker#1

      Pats? Really? Not a chance.

  16. Denver Hawk

    Rob, I think we all agree on liking Murray/Grier as scheme fits and franchise QB potential. To me though, the hawks have too many holes to fill this year and too little draft capital to fill them.

    Murray is out of the question absent a ridiculous trade, and Grier in the 25-45 range is legit especially given 5th year QB option through 32. Taking Grier in this range limits the opportunities to get impact players at much needed DL/EDGE/Nickel positions. Not to mention, the downstream affect of having to play catch-up in the draft- missing the position tiers that they are targeting. Grier is insurance against Russ leaving, but the price is too much.

    Hawks won a SB with solid support around Russ early in his development. I’d prefer they build that support again as the insurance play to have a competitive team and address QB next year in FA/Draft.

    • Denver Hawk

      Also, I think this is an interesting discussion for after the draft passes (assuming no QB drafted). If Russ holds firm on trade demands, Hawks offer the Tag, and look to draft QB, they won’t be in a terrible position.

      QB landscape could be very different next off-season depending on how the many young QBs develop. Next year’s draft is projected to be several top tier QBs (not sure on scheme fits though) and tackles. There could be a scenario where many teams picking early in the draft already have their young QBs in place and either 1) let top QBs slip, or 2) offer to trade back at relative discounts.

      Also, trading Russ next year (assuming similar contract stalemate) would maybe net similar to AB value (late 1st and late 2nd/early 3rd) given the price tag. Using Vegas O/U, the Hawks get 1st round pick in low 20’s, also have 2nd in the low 50’s.

      Hawks could be in a great position to trade Russ next year, get a top tier QB in the draft, and still have ample draft capital to address other needs. The new-found cap space could easily sign a vet QB looking to win a SB on a team friendly deal.

      • Rob Staton

        Ah yes, the magical ‘next year is better’ at quarterback.

        That’s what they said about Mahomes and Watson’s class.

    • Rob Staton

      I don’t want to hear about other needs.

      If Wilson’s gone in a year, no other position matters.

      The idea you sleepwalk into desperation next year at QB to ‘fill some needs’ this year is frustrating.

      No deal tonight? You start making plans at QB. Doesn’t mean they take one. Someone else might draft their guy. But you’re not purposely avoiding QB to ‘fill other needs’.

      • Denver Hawk

        He’s not gone in a year. They still have Wilson next year on a Tag.

        I don’t see how avoiding Grier is ‘sleepwalking’. I’m not saying they purposefully avoid QB this year in the draft. I’m saying Grier is the only guy and his price is too high for the Hawks with only 4 picks, even after trading back.

        And yes, other needs matter. Teams win Super Bowls with lesser quarterbacks than Wilson. This team has starter needs, not just depth needs.

        • Rob Staton

          I said if he’s gone in a year — as in they trade him.

          1. How do you know Grier’s price is too high? (don’t answer that)

          2. They will trade down and acquire more picks.

          3. I feel like I’ve written the same thing 1000 times this off-season.

          I suspect the same people who write ‘think about the needs’ will be the same people who will kick-off and complain next year if Wilson is traded and they don’t have anyone ready on the roster.

    • cha

      There is impressive depth at the DL and Nickel positions. Yes absolutely the Hawks can take Grier after trading down and still fill needs.

      If Grier is a guy the Seahawks like and feel they can groom, no the price is not too much.

  17. Jamho3

    Not ugly at all. Just sorry it’s triggering for some.

    • Rob Staton

      We don’t lazily use words like ‘triggering’ here Jamho3.

      Because we’re not 13 or idiots.

      • mishima

        OK, that’s funny.

  18. Squints

    Let’s assume RW holds out for something unreasonable for what the Seahawks are willing to do, so it neccessitates a trade.

    I don’t see how waiting until next year improves the Seahawk’s standing or trade leverage. His cap figure and salary will be higher, plus he’ll be that much closer to hitting the open market. You’ll be able to command less in trade next year than you will be able to this year in draft capital.

    And other than Murray, there are no other consensus top QB’s, and next year is perceived to be a big QB market, meaning even more teams will pull out of the RW sweepstakes.

    Unless you think this is a top team in the NFL, with the playoffs and a super bowl run in your sights, I think it makes sense to trade him for what you can get now, rather than wait.

    And looking at the roster, with lots of holes and limited draft capital, and a very daunting challenge in the Rams, I don’t see this as a top NFL team. I’d pull the trigger on a trade now, and get what you can for him. Would a trade to the Giants for this years 6 and next years 1st do it? If offered I’d take that.

    • Rob Staton

      There is ZERO market for a trade now.

      Read the ESPN article linked in the piece I wrote.

      People keep saying the market will be worse next year. Nobody is trading for Wilson tomorrow, giving him a NFL-changing contract and the Seahawks three picks.

      You’re pulling the trigger on a trade that doesn’t exist.

      • Squints

        Assuming that’s the case, that no one will trade for him tomorrow, do we expect the trade market will increase between now and this time next year?

        Whatever his value is on the trade market (and its not truly zero, even if its only a late round pick, hyperbole aside), the value in a trade for RW, from my perspective, is decreasing the longer the Seahawks hold on to him.

        I proposed two firsts in my post above, one this year and one next year. Could the seahawks get that between now and the draft? maybe. could they get one 1st round pick? probably.

        Again, I think the seahawks are holding a trade asset that is declining. If they can’t get utility out of that asset in the short term (winning the super bowl, which I think is out of reach), the economic decision is to trade that asset before it declines further.

        I don’t see the seahawks position getting stronger, either with RW or in a trade the longer this drags out.

        • Rob Staton

          Yes I think there will be a trade market for next season. Right now New England, Pittsburgh and the Chargers all have older quarterbacks whose contracts expire after 2019. New York and Miami will have had a year to build up their rosters. Other clubs with QB needs will emerge. Tampa Bay, for example, have to make a call on Jameis. So there’s a lot to be determined there.

          The current trade market is zero according to Adam Schefter. So it’s going to be better next year whatever the situation.

        • GauxGaux

          Squints – I get your logic, but I think you are forgetting that this is the NFL… logic seems to weave in and out of existence whenever it pleases. 17 weeks is a long time, 3 years of club control is an eternity. But again, I get your logic.

          I feel like the price is high right now, because of the need we have in this year’s draft capital. We get drunk with the idea of 3 first round picks. But honestly, RW (not going to list the reasons why) is probably worth more than that, even tomorrow.

  19. Gohawks5151

    Has anyone here ever put together a Sehawks attribute/preference list for QBs? I know on this site we have gone over CB, EDGE/DL and OL to death. Does Grier really match anyone they have liked in the past? I know he is a good downfield passer and manager but does he really match any tendencies Seattle has? We have been spoiled with consistency at QB recently but I know we looked at Mahomes, Murray and Allen lately but that seemed at the least to be doing the normal fact checking and following the “keeping one in the chamber” type due diligence. At the risk of answering my own question with Mahomes, Murray, Brissette and even Allen to a degree it seems like elite movement skills and a big arm are the attributes are what Seattle covets. I’m not sure Grier matches that. I’d hate to see them reach on a guy if that’s not what they want.

    • Rob Staton

      All of the QB’s they’ve signed or added have been different.

      Grier’s proposed fit is nothing to do with previous trends and everything to do with how his skillset matches up to Seattle’s offense.

      • Gohawks5151

        Fair enough. But does Murray fit the offense? Or is it his overwhelming athleticism that makes it all work? There seem to be a little disconnect in the skillet associated with a run first, efficient passing offense and Russell or any of they recent QBs they have been interested in.

  20. SamL

    Before it ends I’d just like to say happy deadline day everybody. I know I’ll be celebrating every year with crazy trade scenarios and hopeless views on the future.

  21. Coleslaw

    Unfortunately, I see the tag as obviously our best option, so we’ll have russ for at most 3 more seasons. I think we draft a QB early. Whether that’s this year or next remains to be seen.

    Rob, I know you want Grier, and i like him, but he might not be there and they might not want him. I think the 2020 draft could have their guy. Either way, QB is a must now, we’ll see if they take one this year or not soon enough. Even if they dont it’s still a huge need, until we sign Russ.

    • Coleslaw

      Also you’ve talked about a possible desire for NYG to wait on a RW trade, and I think Seattle might want that also. Seems weird since we have 4 draft picks, but his trade value is in the gutter right now. I think we wait it out, especially since we can all the way through the CBA negotiations. We can wait till then and maybe Russ will settle down on his demands. If not, we hope that his trade value rises above what it is now (not unlikely).

    • Coleslaw

      Also I want to say kudos for calling this out before anybody else. You were spot on.

  22. Jared Marshall

    A few thoughts on the idea of four straight franchise tags being floated. That APY really isn’t horrendous at all. At no point during that stint would the guaranteed dollars in any given year eclipse the signing bonus/guarantees that would come with any long-term Wilson contract. — not even close. Some fancy (and frankly exotic) cap management could really be quite beneficial to the team. It’s pretty ironic considering Russ has this baseball agent who puts such an insane premium on the guarantees. The issue with this course is obviously that you’re virtually assured to lose Wilson for nothing. You pigeonhole yourself in a number of ways. Even if there is a QB cap in the new CBA, the well will have already been poisoned. Wilson would leave for identical money just to spite you. I’d like to know if I’m missing something.

    • RealRhino2

      I have no problem just playing him on the tag for the two years and then letting him walk when it gets up to $50million+. Can’t figure out why that’s a problem. Because he’ll be unhappy? Then he should have signed a long-term deal for less than that. Because we’ll lose him “for nothing?” That one I don’t get. Teams lose players for nothing all the time. He’ll be what, 33? Heading into 34? Not unlikely his play will be declining by that point. Phillip Rivers is going to decline and retire in a year or two, ditto Big Ben, ditto Brees and Brady. All those teams will lose those guys for nothing. So why are we freaking out about it? A 3rd rounder after Russ’s age 33 season will probably be fair compensation at that point….

      • Jared Marshall

        How likely do you think we are to win a ring in that span? We’re talented and fairly young, but I’m not sure you can say we have the cap and draft capital to put the finishing touches on and really make the push. There doesn’t appear to be that glaringly-obvious trade partner this year, but next year he’ll still retain similar value, and a few teams with name-brand QBs could easily be looking to replace one with the other. The Patriots, Saints, Chargers, and Giants come to mind; that’s by no means a comprehensive list either. One more year of team control over Wilson isn’t worth losing a trove of picks.

        • RealRhino2

          Pretty decent chance, if he’s so good. How likely do you think we are to win in the near term if we trade him for picks? What’s the difference? If drafting a QB with the picks we’d get is so easy, why would any of those teams give us their “trove of picks” in the first place?

          Why is our chance of winning the SB in the next 3 years any worse than SD or Pitt or NO, all teams that have aging QBs they are willing to hold on to in order to win than get rid of for picks?

          Again, if the value is there for those teams such that they’d give up a bunch of picks for him, why wouldn’t it be there for us to hold on to him? Does that make sense? In other words, you’re the Saints and Brees is done this year. You look at Russ and think, “By golly, that guys so good he’s worth us giving up two 1st-rounders and paying him a ton of money ’cause he gives a chance to win a ring in the next few years.”

          Well, if he’s “worth” $35 million/yr. AND two 1st-round draft picks to THEM, why isn’t he worth $32 million/yr. and NO draft pick payments for US? Play it out, go for the brass ring, hopefully pick up a compensation pick for him.

          • Jared Marshall

            He’s the one being difficult. These top-five QB contracts are supposed to be formalities, but Wilson wants to reinvent the wheel. I’m assuming the team is very willing to top the Rodgers deal when I say that. If this is hanging over the team as we slowly death march towards losing Wilson for nothing, then I think you trade him. The worst shot at willing you’ll have is if we let more talent walk for nothing and still lose our future HoF QB.

  23. Awsi Dooger

    I assume the deadline is Pacific time. Otherwise I’d be sweating

  24. GerryG

    My predictions:

    No deal, no trade.

    Draft a QB IF they can and have someone they like. No clue if that player exists, seems Grier is the only possibility.

    Next maybe he is traded, but that will depend again on the market, and if they have a qb on the roster.

    After no deal for Wilson Franck gets extended this summer

    • GerryG

      * next year maybe he is traded

  25. charlietheunicorn

    RW is here this year. No new deal. Traded after 2019 season.

  26. Jared Marshall

    ***Wrote a little something to stave off anxiety and get out ahead of the conversation if no deal is struck at the 11th hour. It was topical, so I figured I’d share with the class.***

    The hour is growing late on the day of the self-imposed deadline Russell Wilson set for a new deal. Today it was revealed that the deadline likely has deeper implications than simply shutting down negotiations until next off-season. If that is indeed the case (and not a toothless media ploy for leverage), then you could reasonably assess that Wilson legitimately wants out of Seattle. That begs a question why. I’m going to explore part of that question — knowing full-well I could get a notification on my phone any second, rendering this a total waste of time. Still, I need something to do with this nervous energy.

    If Wilson really does want out of Seattle, there is obviously a reason. One of the potential reasons that has caught some serious legs in the media is that Wilson wants to find greener pastures in the form of a larger market; or simply put, that he wants to be a Giant. I’m not going to revisit those rumors, but rather look at what Wilson going to the NYG would actually look like. There is information to be gleaned from the mechanics of him finding himself in that jersey.

    So the first place to start is to acknowledge that Wilson can very realistically be kept under team control for four more seasons. He’s affordably under contract for the coming season, and three franchise tags could logically be applied. The $50+ million price tag on that last tag is certainly eye-popping, but when you put it in the context of comparing it to a four-year deal over the same span, the APY comes in at a not-unreasonable $37.5-million per. At no time in that four years would the guarantees ever come close to what Wilson would get by signing a four-year deal — which would almost assuredly come with over $100 million in guarantees.

    So what does all this have to do with going to the Giants? It’s simple — a bird in the hand. The Giants are in no real position to hitch their wagon to Russell Wilson. When looking at the Giants’ draft capital, the year it would make the most sense to trade for Wilson would be this year. It feels highly improbable to me that Wilson will be traded this off-season. The plan on the Giants’ end appears to be to stick with Eli, and find a young quarterback either in this draft to sit behind Manning for a year, or in the next draft when they would presumably move on from Manning.

    Russell Wilson is in his age-30 season right now. Generally that has been the prime years for quarterbacks recently, but there is a bit of uncertainty about how Wilson will fare as he ages compared to more traditional quarterbacks. In other words, if Wilson isn’t a Giant in 2019 or 2020, it stands to reason he never will be. At the very least, I don’t think either Wilson’s camp nor the Giants can proceed as if he will be. The Giants have to assume the Seahawks will not trade Wilson; meanwhile Wilson has to assume the heir to Eli could easily be on their roster by the end of day one of the upcoming draft.

    Theoretically the Giants could wait out the Seahawks. The third year of club control — and especially the fourth — are quite punitive. I just don’t think the Giants are prepared to abstain from addressing the quarterback position until 2021. That sentiment gets reinforced when you consider you would be implementing a three-year plan to have a mere chance to trade for your QBOTF. That your QBOTF would be entering his age-33 season — four years younger than Eli is now — only serves to exacerbate the logic.

    Basically that means the window for Wilson to be a Giant ends roughly a calendar year from now. The window to trade for him begins at midnight tonight PST if no deal is struck. Their best shot at him will be this upcoming week before the draft. If they don’t draft a Dwayne Haskins or at least a Daniel Jones, they’ll have one more shot in the off-season before the 2020 draft. While you could say those are the two years Wilson retains maximum value, those are also the two years the Seahawks would be least likely to trade him since he’ll be so affordable.

    I don’t want to totally shrug off the idea of Wilson as a Giant; there are ways it could happen. I just think there are far too many ways in which the stars don’t align for either Wilson or the Giants to put many eggs in this basket. It may be both of their ideal scenarios, but I highly doubt it is their plan A, B, or even C. If Wilson really is doing this to get to a bigger pond, the list of suitors ends at the Giants. The other big-market teams have established quarterbacks who will be there for years to come. The only larger-market team than Seattle that needs a quarterback is Tampa; nearly identical in size, and certainly a downgrade in talent and organization. We’ll see what happens, but in two hours from now this will be the directon the conversation will head if there is no deal.

  27. Dale Roberts

    It’s all just a little sad. Regardless of the outcome Russell has tarnished his halo. He’s added a bit, or maybe a lot, of A-Rod to is resume. I understand it’s his right to demand as much as he can get but you can’t buy the kind of respect loyalty yields. He’s set for life, a life far beyond what any of us normal folks will ever touch. Why does he need to push for the most, the biggest payday ever? I’ve not a big Brady fan but he’s a big time winner and he hasn’t done this to the Pats. Russell said it’s about winning and giving back but he’s become a celeb with a hot wife and I think it’s gone to his head. I wonder if he’s heading for a Tiger Woods crash (I like Tiger so I’m not judging). Four years ago, who would have thought that Colin Kapernick, not Russell Wilson, would be the one to show character and understand where self respect is born and fostered. In this Trump world of disingenuousness Russell may be Trumping Seattle.

  28. Rokas Tverijonas

    We have a deal ladies and gents

  29. RWIII

    I am glad. Yes! Yes! Yes! This is fantastic. This is a deal that had to get done. Russell is happy the Seahawks are happy. The Seattle fanbase is happy. Everyone in Seahawkville is happy. As Brock Huard would say. “This is a deal that had to get done.

    Russell Wilson deserves every penny. He is the franchise.

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