Spencer Rattler has announced on social media that he is turning pro. While a lot of other quarterbacks are staying in college and entering the transfer portal, with seven-figure fees being offered to veteran signal-callers, Rattler says he’s following a dream to enter the NFL.
I’m not publishing my horizontal board article until Friday or Saturday so that we can give it a good run on the blog after the preview/reaction to Thursday’s Dallas game. However, given today’s news, I want to share what I’ve written about Rattler in the piece. So here’s a spoiler below.
A quick other note — I was on VSiN today to discuss the Seahawks vs Cowboys game. Here’s a clip from the appearance:
What shot do you give the Seahawks against the Cowboys tomorrow on #TNF?
Today on #VSiNPrimeTime, @1TimMurray and @MikePalmCirca are joined by @robstaton to give his thoughts on this game.
For more, visit: https://t.co/Fne3PZCyJa pic.twitter.com/GoxHVySe86
— VSiN (@VSiNLive) November 30, 2023
Notes on Spencer Rattler from the horizontal board article
Rattler is wildly underrated. He has matured greatly as a player and person at South Carolina. He no longer throws wildly into double or triple coverage, just trusting his arm as he did at Oklahoma. He plays within structure, operates well despite constant duress and has shown next-level talent on a weekly basis. He has a great arm and can throw layered passes from all sorts of angles. The torque he generates throwing on the run, not to mention his placement/accuracy, is impressive. His footwork is subtle and deliberate to create time to let throwing lanes emerge and his release is extremely quick when he wants to pull the trigger.
In every game you see legit, NFL throws. You don’t see other more talked about quarterbacks in this class operate in a NFL environment. In other systems there are lots of high-percentage throws, half-field reads, minimal pressure and pitch-and-catch in a comfortable environment. Rattler at South Carolina has faced the same kind of challenges he will face at the next level, playing within an offense that carries some pro-concepts and he has produced.
See these handful of clips below for evidence. All of these throws are translatable:
What do you see on that video? Accurate 50+ yard throws off-balance as he’s about to be hit, subtle footwork in the pocket to create a passing lane for a layered throw over the middle, red-zone brilliance in the face of pressure, the ability to attack opponents downfield from an unclean pocket and a throw across his body, on the run, down the sideline, 37-yards downfield, hitting a receiver perfectly in stride. These are NFL throws.
He’s also a better athlete than people realise and he can make gains with his legs and be a threat as a runner. He’s been sacked 3.7 times a game — eighth most in college football — and faced constant pressure (185 total pressures, third most). Despite this, he regularly delivered pro-level passes with defenders breathing down his neck. He also only had 11 turnover-worthy plays, the same number as Drake Maye — the 79th most in college football. It speaks to how he has transformed his game, has not forced things under pressure and has remained composed in the pocket.
Further to this, his adjusted completion percentage (the percentage of aimed passes thrown on target) is 79.6% — eighth most in the NCAA. That’s only one place behind Heisman front-runner Jayden Daniels (79.9%), despite all of the pressure he’s faced.
Five wins might not seem much but South Carolina’s team felt, at times, like it’s in development. For me he deserves first round consideration and has finally delivered on the potential that had him talked about as a possible top-five pick at Oklahoma.
We’re starting to see high-profile mock drafts published and in my opinion, they’re including names that have no business being talked about in round one. I’m convinced Rattler and Quinn Ewers at Texas will be far more highly rated by NFL scouts than draft media. They have both shown immense talent and skill while displaying NFL caliber throws in NFL environments. This matters.
Both players should be kept in the forefront of Seahawks fans minds during the draft process, provided Ewers also declares.
Meanwhile, the following players are not turning pro and have entered the portal:
Tyler Van Dyke, Will Howard, Will Rogers, Riley Leonard, KJ Jefferson
It’s also believed Cam Ward is being offered significant money to transfer.
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Its time for the hawks to draft a quarterback. I’d argue last year was the time, but if they don’t FINALLY pull the trigger this year, when ever will they?
FWIW, Michael S-D yesterday tweeted out “What position should the Seahawks focus on in Rd 1 next year?” and the overwhelming majority was QB.
The devaluing of Rattler and Ewers, combined with the escalation of Nix, Penix, McCarthy, and strangely Carson Beck has been a real head scratcher for me.
The cynic in me sees this as a media desperate to drive a narrative that CFP are must see TV as there are first round QB on display.
I think I saw that Brugler is releasing his mock today, and don’t know what he put out….
Looks like the blue bloods to me… There is definitely a narrative that is being pushed. It might partially be laziness. Haven’t watched the tape so fill out the board with top recruits and players from the top schools. And qb’s are the main draws.
Beck?
Wasn’t a knock on Richardson was the lack of starts? Beck has that minus the Supreme athletic potential.
Yup.
The cynic in me sees this as a dog eating its own shit, we will talk up QBs on teams in CFP, which will cause QBs to matriculate to schools that are CFP contenders, etc…one giant circle.
I think Rob is the early bird for serious draft boards. For other sites, why should they list their preference early when they can make provocative “ picks that give them clicks?” If they rate Penix or Nixs higher than Williams it starts conversations. In the meantime their is the senior bowl and the combine. Lots of time for more articles while they are flip flopping a few times on controversial players. The only thing that matters is their final board in late March.
So is this going to be another case where the player Rob compliments rises up the board and out of reach of our Seahawks? Is Rob just early or is he actually creating the rise? If I was the billionaire who was about to purchase the Seahawks I would contract with Rob to STFU and go to work for the Seahawks at ten times what he makes from the best draft site on the internet. Would it be our loss or our gain? Might not have this site anymore, but the Seahawks might be way better!
Well Curtis would be working for the team too, either replacing John or working under him as the cap guy.
I would say Big Mike is in charge of marketing. Whip the fan base in shape.
Already fashioning my Alec Baldwin in Glengarry Glen Ross speech.
“This is the cap room. And to you, it’s gold, and you don’t get it. Why? Because to give it to you is throwing it away. Cap room is for closers.”
“PUT THAT CAP SPACE DOWN. You think I’m f*cking with you? I am NOT f*cking with you.”
😆 one of the best movies of all time
a truly great movie, very underrated.
First marketing move, give away glass peacocks
2nd and in all seriousness, any and all marketing will feature throwbacks
Rob is so far ahead of the talking heads that they are in different universes. That noted, I’m concerned that Spencer Rattler (my favorite option for the Hawks in round 1) will be “discovered” by blathering “experts” like Mel Kiper and thus increase his visibility in the eyes of other teams’ fans. Rattler will be in the Senior Bowl, so he won’t remain under the radar, alas. Go Hawks, draft a QB!
I just don’t get it. This isn’t like Lucas falling through the cracks. I haven’t been this sold on a guy since, Burrow? Just a guy who is checking all boxes and I feel like will just translate just fine, as a floor.
What do you want? Pure talent? 5* recruit and top qb recruit in his year. Has only been beaten out by a guy that won a Heisman and will be drafted first overall, a guy where “generational” is thrown around. Can run, throw, read defenses, go through progressions, manipulate the pocket.
Want adversity? He was annoying and cocky, played careless. Then got benched, transferred to a school not just to win, not to a school with a name. He is running that team and that offense. They are HORRIBLE and he isn’t playing at that level. Levis couldn’t do that last year for the full year.
Want to know how his game will translate? He played in the SEC, had very few turnovers, was sacked and pressured as much as humanly possible, and still produced. He can work with legitimate talent, as his top wide receiver will most likely be a day 2 pick.
Want to know if he can improve? He brought himself back from almost being undraftable to a first round talent.
That is just the tip of it all. I mentioned Burrow in the sense that he plays in control. Extreme confidence. I could be off the mark, but I don’t worry about him in the NFL. I could see any other quarterback having issues. I see Rattler possibly starting for a team next season. Teams will regret not drafting him. I think that you do what you can to get him.
There won’t be another quarterback who will appeal to John AND Pete both like Rattler. Pete will love the story and personality, John will love that talent. Finally finding his unicorn starting quarterback.
Everything you just listed is why the media is off Rattler though…
He isn’t a Heisman candidate, he isn’t playing for the CFP, he isn’t selling Dr. Pepper, he is getting his ass kicked by the SEC in a middle of the road program.
I just looked and saw Brugler has the Hawks taking McCarthy, which seems as unlikely to me as anything. McCarthy is an anti-Rattler.
My sense is that Rattler going pro is a reflection that he is being told he is in consideration for a first round pick. Unlike McCarthy who is trying to get out of Michigan before sanctions hit.
I think he ends up being picked by Tampa, so we need to trade in front of the Bucs if you want him.
I saw brugler had hawks taking McCarthy and all I thought about was how disgusted Rob would be reading that.
He’s not the only one….
Mccarthy is the hardest of passes. Games with 8 and 13 attempts in a whole game. Give me a break. I’m not sure there’s anything to evaluate there.
If penix, nix, others are system guys show me a greater beneficiary of a system.
What the media thinks doesn’t matter, like them all thinking Pickett, Willis, Ridder, Corral would go in round 1. Only Pittsburgh bit, and rather foolishly. The question is, what do teams think? Mahomes’ record at Texas Tech was pretty bad too, only one year did he have a winning season, going 7-6 and getting blown out in the bowl game. He still went 10th overall. Same could very easily happen to Rattler. I don’t think he makes it to 15, that’s my sad hunch.
And that’s something to remember as we approach another draft season
He’s doing the Senior Bowl, right? That may be were perception starts to really turn around. Though selfishly I hope it doesn’t, so the Hawks have a shot at him.
To BK and Thomas I think the ‘toughness’ perception has something to do with how many linemen the big 10 send to the pros.
I count 8 linemen in the first two rounds coming from the big 10 last year.
Just to make your point. If you think of Iowa: o-line and tight ends. Under Ferentz, every senior o-lineman has at least been on an NFL team the following season. Every single senior offensive lineman.
In the Big 10, if you don’t have a line, you don’t win. Good catch.
We are counting Paris Johnson as a lineman?
This year: Fashanu, Chop Robinson, Tuimoloau, Hall Jr., Sawyer(?), Newton, Pearl, Jenkins, closest I could come to thinking of 8 B10 linemen who might go in the first two rounds.
DeJean is the B10 player I’m most interested to see on the big board.
It sucks that he got hurt. Rob said that he might be returning. Kid literally won 2 games for Iowa himself.
I was so bummed when I saw that.
I felt like he was a potential top 10, legitimately exciting prospect.
Running it back again would be an interesting choice
Suck as he may he still counts.
Your mileage may very but it’s still quite a thing if 8 ish linemen go in the top two rounds back to back years.
I’m not saying it’s all warranted.
Could not remember the OT from Wisconsin that looked good to me, he might sneak into the 2nd.
Good points! Iowa, penn state, and Wisconsin do churn out nfl lineman consistently more than any program in the pac 12
I’m seeing that Ryan Fowler has an interview with Jim Nagy today on Commanding the Huddle.
Unfortunately, I do not have iTunes.
From his twitter account.
It was on Twitter voices or whatever, so don’t think there’s any way to listen back to it
I love Rattler. It’s a shame how I still see people grilling him for his experience at Oklahoma and people grilled him for this season. South Carolina was a bad team with a terrible o line but he kept them competitive. I wish more people would see that. Of course Nix, Penix, and McCarthy are gonna be overhyped because they’re on winning teams. I also believe Maye is overhyped a bit. I’m also not too fond of Williams. I mean the talent there but he’s showing signs of a prima Donna this early. Draft experts have Rattler in the mid round and I think that’s foolish.
Also it makes sense for Van Dyke to transfer. He’s regressed ever since Cristobal became the coach. Cristobal has arguably the worst QB friendly system in all of college football. His offense is what made people question whether or not Justin Herbert was a 1st rd pick. Herbert is the one who showed me the trick is projecting a QB not based on what they were, but what they could be at the next level. Although, that doesn’t happen often.
Interesting tape breakdown on “future NFL starter” Rattler by Matt Waldman & Mark Schofield, long – but well worth a listen to hear both their positive opinions & their list of correctable faults to be addressed in QB development.
https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2021/07/21/matt-waldmans-rsp-film-room-with-mark-schofield-qb-spencer-rattler-oklahoma/
Michael Pratt has been sacked 104 times, 20 times this year.
Spencer Rattler has been sacked 106 times, 40 times this year.
Shedeur Sanders, 52 times this year. Deon can’t protect his boy, he might be up for a record in a few years or in the hospital. Anyone know what the record is?
I’ve been searching for a few days.
Shedeur Sanders is such a pincushion he’s being cast in the next Hellraiser film.
This ten-second clip is what Shedeur Sanders’s season has been like.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oesSyvh76g
My best guess is that the record is held by an option quarterback who got tackled behind the line of scrimmage a lot on rollouts.
Maybe someone like Tommy Frazier?
Andre Ware?
David Carr, probably
I seriously doubt it.
If you can share and like this guys it’d be appreciated:
https://twitter.com/VSiNLive/status/1730023566908010648
Done.
Rattler’s potential senior bowl performance will be important so we can at least take a stab at evaluating him without the piss poor offense he has now (though Xavier Legette is cool)
It’ll be the making of him
People don’t realise the arm talent he has
When he can just stand there throwing all over the field all day with no pass rush, people are going to be wowed
Watch his high school practise tape. We’re talking other world arm talent. He was born for this.
Legette will be there with Rattler.
Based on the reports coming in on accepted invites, I’m not sure there is going to be a weak pass rush at the Senior Bowl. Yes, Jim Nagy said on Twitter that this is shaping up to be the best OL class since 2019. But I don’t think this is a weak group of pass rushers.
So far…
Laiatu Latu
Tyler Davis
Ruke Ohorohoro
Byron Murphy II
Nelson Cesar
R.J. Oben
Dewayne Carter
T’Vondre Sweat
Jalyx Hunt
Cedric Gray
Hypothetical trade up using today’s draft order.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is off the board.
Rome Odunze is off the board.
Spencer Rattler is on the board.
The Tennessee Titans are on the clock at #10. Seattle calls & offers the #22 pick overall & DK Metcalf to jump to #10 and select Spencer Rattler.
Tennessee has $100M of available cap space in 2024, tops in the league. With the top 2 WRs off the board Tennessee pivots & gains a vet WR in his prime for 2nd year QB Will Levis to throw to & slides back 12 spots in round 1.
Seattle makes a big move to get their guy at QB while also working to set the table for a healthy salary cap in 2025 when the real push towards contention begins.
I’d think it’d take more than Metcalf to move down 12 spots in the first round, though that would help the Titans amend for taking Burks, who’s been a MASSIVE bust, as of yet. Perhaps they’d make the move if including a future 3rd, as well?
Personally, I view Metcalf as having declining value. The best time to have moved him was before this season but what’s done is done. Moving him this offseason will be the best move despite the cap hit, as he’s likely peaked in this system. If Pete and John are both coming back, there is NO reason to retain DK, as he’s surely proven to be less than they’d hoped he’d be. He’s a good possession receiver but he’s NEVER taken a game over despite his advantage in size, strength and speed. He’s built like Tarzan and too often plays like Jane. The only time we see him animated and hungry is when he’s throwing hands and drawing flags.
Wherever in the top 12 that TEN, WSH and LAC land is where we should be looking to move up. All three teams are likely set at QB, at least for next season. Yesterday, I proposed a move to #1 to land Williams and finally put the search for the QBOTF behind us. If we’re not going all in for the first pick, moving ahead of Vegas, TB, NO and NYJ is essential.
There are more receivers than just Rome and MHjr. I don’t think Rome is even the concensus #2. Nabers is legit. And I just have a hard time seeing 1) us picking at 22, and 2) Rattler rising that high. I agree Rattler is the QB I’m looking at (with Ewers if he declares) but there seems to be so little smoke on him and so much smoke on the others. Rob is great at evaluating talent, and much better I’d say than many front offices. Yes I can see him rising, but 10 seems high, when Levis was passed up until the second. 15 seems like the sweet spot I could see Rattler rising to, and I think that could be where we are sitting in the draft anyways.
Hey Rob, wondered if you ever had the chance to check this out: https://m.youtube.com/shorts/FEaBqf-fudo
I know this interview was months before the season started but I love the maturity and intelligence coming from him. I like that he has experience in an air raid and pro style offense along with physical tools. On paper that should give him an advantage over other QBs. But too early to tell: As long as he ends up in the right situation with proper coaching, he can be a star within the next few years.
Yep — watched it when it came out. Speaks to the reality that he isn’t the person everyone remembers from the documentary
Great News on him declaring, makes me think NFL is higher on him the draft guys online, I could see our GM really falling for him, my only concern is will he be the riser like Richardson last yr even more so then J.Daniels.
Will be a fun draft process to follow esp if USC qb goes back to school to make millions and perhaps put a better campaign together without Chicago being his probable destination.
Cheers
Does PFF disclose how they calculate grades?
This seems to indicate it’s not really that sophisticated, at least for WR: https://x.com/dynastyzoltanff/status/1729971105555714133?s=46&t=cOHU3a7sncZq-_1QP4M1Og
My big question over PFF is who exactly is doing the grading? They laid off staff this year. Was that to retain a pool of excellent graders? Or were there cuts too?
Teams use the system so it’s not completely without merit. But there are so many foggy areas with PFF.
That’s why typically I think you have to pair it with the eye test.
The r-squared in this tweet is much higher than I would have expected for a single stat suggesting there is no one actually watching the WR position, just handing out a grade based on a formula of statistics.
I struggle to understand how this would be possible for a position like O-line that doesn’t really have stats.
For example, many local fans cheered Garrett Bolles allowing 0 sacks against Myles Garrett and highlight a successful 1v1 rep pass blocking. However, it turns out he was only asked to block him 1v1 on 5 snaps. All other snaps he had help from the RB, Guard or TE. Bolles got a 75 grade on the day. Troutman actually had more 1v1 reps on Garrett (something like 16 I think) than Bolles but got a 41 grade.
Loves Rob endorsement of Rattler yet suspects this franchise is not in a position to make a grandiose move. We are stuck in purgatory until the ownership is someone besides a billionaires’ sister
First, I want to admit that I’m consistently impressed by Rob’s analysis. There are others who have impressed me from time to time but Rob does so consistently. I find myself rarely disagreeing and, when I do, it’s generally around the edges. I’m new here so you don’t know yet that I’m not someone who says things I don’t mean. Sometimes that’s been to my detriment. I was recently kicked out of another community. I hope that doesn’t happen here. I hope there’s space here to have opinions, even when unpopular or when one doesn’t agree with the proprietor of the community. But so far, I’ve only differed from Rob once and on something minor, while finding the main thrust of his argument insightful. He’s clearly very sharp.
As for Ratler, I’m glad to hear he’s coming out and I hope Seattle manages to snag him. In recent weeks, I’ve been watching his games and I find him impressive for the reasons Rob sites. In the community I came from, another quarterback was consistently praised. I watched his games this season and didn’t see anything to get worked up about. I think that guy might make it as an NFL backup but that would be his ceiling, whereas I could see Rattler potentially excelling.
I’m a bit doubtful that Ewers will declare and I wasn’t as impressed by what I’ve seen of him so far, though I’ve not watched him play much.
A lot of people talk about Penix and, if Seattle takes him, I’ll get excited and hope for the best. But I would have concerns, not the least of which would be whether his body would hold up against the hits. Both he and Rattler are older, so that’s a strike against both of them.
I’m not sure if age is gonna be an issue with Rattler and Penix because we’re seeing QBs last a very long time in the league. Well that’s as long as they’re protected well and don’t end up like Andrew Luck. Although Penix having 2 ACL tears concerns me about his durability. Not to mention his decision making has been in question. Also keep in mind were starting to see a lot of college QBs enter the transfer portal, so expect a good portion of them to be in college for 5 maybe even 6 years. I like that Rattler is going pro. With a good senior bowl game, combine, and pro day he’ll be a projected 1st pick. Me personally I’m not a fan of Nix Penix McCarthy or Maye.
I’ve always struggled to see anyone other than the Spencer Rattler I saw in QB1 a few years back. Guy was a full on Diva and one of the first teenage social media celebrity QB’s to have a major following. He seemed to believe his own hype and I struggle with those kind of personalities in a locker room, as a coach myself – the pain is real.
I am encouraged by your write up though and will invest some time in the new year researching prospects such as Rattler. I really do hope he has matured to the point he can be trusted to lead a franchise.
Whilst people CAN change, most likely a leopard cannot change ALL of its spots.
He has completely changed
talked to some friends who are huge COCKS fans from Charleston. They talk about this guy as being very humble, a great teammate, etc…
Ran the PFN mock simulator and J Daniels was selected at pick 22 for the Hawks. Very intrigued by this QB.
He’s a great option
This team has young talent, it has no coaching, and it keeps playing old players that are not part of future at the expense of that young talent. It. Is. So. Frustrating!