The reality check of the Ravens, Rams and 49ers games leaves little in the way of optimism for the rest of the season. Either the Seahawks are going to back-into the playoffs as a sixth or seventh seed (they’re only competing with Minnesota, Green Bay and perhaps the Rams, after all) or they’re going to miss out. It doesn’t feel particularly exciting to discuss this, especially given the likelihood of a swift wildcard exit based on what we’re seeing.
I want to talk about what happens at the end of the season and provide a possible outcome.
It’s starting to feel inevitable that Shane Waldron’s days are numbered in Seattle. On Friday, Pete Carroll bemoaned an inability to properly feature their different offensive weapons, at one point listing several names he feels could be used to greater effect. He even admitted there might be too many mouths to feed and openly discussed a lack of identity on offense.
He’s right to highlight these things because it’s all blatantly true. Yet as the Head Coach, he should’ve fixed it by now. It’s not good enough to be talking about identity issues 11 games into a season.
It’s even more frustrating when you consider Carroll is 13 years into his tenure in Seattle and has, seemingly, great clarity on what he wants his team to look like. The offensive coordinator is in year-three, not year-one. Plus we’ve just seen a San Francisco team make great use of their weapons at Seattle’s expense. They’re not having any headaches on how to best use Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. So why are the Seahawks?
It’ll be a huge faux pas if fans and media only focus on Waldron and Geno Smith. The buck stops with the Head Coach.
I’d argue we’ve not seen the Seahawks properly function as a closed circle unit since 2018. Back then, they had the #1 rushing offense in the NFL. It synched well with Russell Wilson at the peak of his powers. They also had Frank Clark and Jarran Reed rushing the passer — enabling the Seahawks to have the fourth best pressure percentage in the NFL. They beat really good teams in 2018 — the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. The two games against the Rams finished 33-31 and 36-31. They were close and exciting.
That season should’ve been the platform to build and it wasn’t. They squandered it. Since then, they’ve had major issues with the pass rush, run defense, balance on offense, ‘Let Russ Cook’ and now the husk of an offense we are seeing week to week. In the five years since 2018, there’s always something glaring that needs to be fixed.
That’s on Carroll. Not the current coordinator. Not the current quarterback. Carroll.
Frankly, this off-season feels like the perfect time to try something new. Install an offensive Head Coach who can make the most of the weapons on the roster and draft a quarterback he can work with for the next era of Seahawks football.
Carroll isn’t going to coach forever and the Seahawks are not getting closer to a fairytale Championship send-off to end his career. They just aren’t. They’re a mile away, if recent performances are anything to go by.
The franchise can’t be paralysed by ownership not wanting to make any dramatic moves before a sale and if that’s the reason for inactivity, Jody Allen shouldn’t release statements like she did 18 months ago insisting neither the Seahawks or Blazers are for sale. She should look to sell as soon as possible — with the window opening next summer — to allow someone to take over who can make the big decisions.
That statement in July 2022 ended with, “my focus – and that of our teams – is on winning.” Prove it. One playoff win in six years (soon to be seven), a 15-14 record since the second reset, the first reset was propped up by Russell Wilson and as mentioned, there are consistently glaring issues with the team that seem to catch Carroll off guard. He then spends most of the season trying to answer why this is the case. This is winning on a ‘not the Cardinals’ level. This isn’t winning on a 49ers, Eagles, Chiefs level — the level required to be a serious contender.
They’ve won the NFC West twice in the last eight years. Before Russell Wilson, the Seahawks were 15-19. Since trading Wilson, they’re 15-14. That record could be about to get worse.
Carroll’s number of wins and overall success in Seattle shouldn’t be dismissed. Yet it often lacks context. How good are you, really, when your only playoff win in the last six years came against an opponent who lost its quarterback early on and had to field a 40-year-old fill-in backup? How much has actually been achieved since that fateful final game of the 2014 season? How much of their success since then was down to Wilson? Without a top quarterback leading the way, what are they currently?
Whenever you talk about a future without Carroll, you almost have to apologetically reference your gratitude. I hope, soon, we can just assume everyone has that gratitude. There’s no agenda here other than a desire to once again reach the pinnacle. What is most likely to get the Seahawks to the top? The Eagles fired Doug Pederson three seasons after he won a Super Bowl. Two years later, they were back in the Super Bowl. The Eagles seem committed to winning. These days, it feels increasingly like the Seahawks are committed to being able to beat bad teams.
The first point discussed the way the defense hasn’t been good enough for a long time. The defense feels like less of an issue than the offense currently. However, consider what has been spent on the unit and then reflect on whether the 21st best unit per DVOA is a fitting result for this level of resource:
— Three second rounds picks on pass rushers (Taylor, Mafe, Hall)
— Big free agent splash (Jones)
— Trading a second rounder in 2024 (Williams)
— First round pick at linebacker (Brooks)
— Veteran free agent additions (Reed, Wagner)
— Top-five pick at cornerback (Witherspoon)
— Big salaries (Diggs, Adams, Nwosu, Jones)
— Huge trade (Adams)
With this level of spend, they should at least be above average. Per DVOA, something Carroll frequently references, they aren’t. Further to this, key target areas for improvement (eg, run defense) showed signs of positivity early in the season. Since then, the Seahawks have dropped to 21st in the NFL in rush yards conceded per game (117). With an upcoming schedule like they have, this could get even worse.
As Mookie Alexander at Field Gulls notes:
How much longer do we have to wait for this unit to actually be demonstrably good? Not “good against the absolute worst offenses” or “good for about five weeks and then below-average the other 12 weeks.” If this is going to persist for as long as Pete Carroll is in charge, then the only way the Seahawks can be elite again under his watch is if they have a quarterback and consequently an entire offense that can consistently overcome less than stellar defensive play.
Point #2 discussed whether the game has changed, noting that the last five Super Bowls have featured offensive-minded Head Coaches:
Chiefs vs Eagles — two offensive-minded Head Coaches
Rams vs Bengals — two offensive-minded Head Coaches
Buccaneers vs Chiefs — two offensive-minded Head Coaches
Chiefs vs 49ers — two offensive-minded Head Coaches
Patriots vs Rams — one defensive-minded, one offensive-minded coach
That’s nine offensive-minded Head Coaches and Bill Belichick.
Nothing about the last few weeks makes this feel any less pertinent. Plus, look at the teams with the best records in the NFL currently:
Miami — Mike McDaniel
Chiefs — Andy Reid
Jaguars — Doug Pederson
Eagles — Nick Sirianni
49ers — Kyle Shanahan
Baltimore are led by John Harbaugh who appears to act as a figurehead. The Lions have Dan Campbell who cedes to Ben Johnson on offense, arguably the top Head Coaching candidate for the next cycle. Meanwhile, Kevin O’Connell is doing a fine job with the Vikings, Matt LaFleur is turning things around for the Packers, Sean Payton is leading Denver on a five-game winning streak and the Browns have Kevin Stefanski.
There isn’t a single team currently among the NFL’s elite with a defensive-minded Head Coach.
Point #3 relates to Seattle’s poor playoff record — one win in six (soon to be seven, if we’re honest). Point #4 was simply titled, ‘They can’t recapture their chosen identity’. No extra comment needed there. Point #5, which is less relevant, was their form at home. They’re currently 4-2 at Lumen Field. They’ve defeated the Panthers, Cardinals, Browns and Commanders, losing to the Rams and 49ers.
It should be a major criticism of Carroll that the team has no identity. How can that be possible when he’s been in the job for this long, having spent the resources he has to shape the roster? They’ve spent a treasure-trove of draft picks, all of the cap money this year and next, they’ve made big splashes in free agency and they’ve traded away their second rounder next year. All that investment, all that resource, and they can’t even deliver a clear identity?
Carroll’s future should be discussed. Before anyone frets about moving on and being careful what you wish for — a quick reminder that similar things were said about moving on from Mike Holmgren. Five years after his departure, Seattle won a Super Bowl. Plus, very few people had heard about Nick Sirriani or Mike McDaniel before they were appointed. Sirianni was Frank Reich’s offensive coordinator in Indianapolis. That’s Frank Reich who has just been fired mid-season for the second year in a row. Sirianni is 24-4 in 2022/23 and nearly won a Championship. You don’t always need to go out and hire an obvious name with credentials galore. Sirianni attacks opponents and makes the most of his weapons. His culture and identity is to be aggressive. Those coaches are out there.
Sure, it helps that he has talent on the roster. Nobody earmarked Jalen Hurts to be a Super Bowl quarterback when Sirianni took over in 2021, though. Neither did anyone think much of Tua Tagovailoa before McDaniel arrived in Miami. Now, the Dolphins have the most explosive offense in the league. Why? Because they make the most of their weapons, they’re tactically creative and aggressive.
I read this piece from Brian Nemhauser on the plane home from Seattle today and I think Brian makes a very important point about the talent discrepancy between the Seahawks and 49ers. I do think, however, that the pathway to the Seahawks being more competitive and a contender isn’t quite as bleak.
The example of the Dolphins is a good one. I’m not sure I fancy Miami to win a Super Bowl but I also wouldn’t completely rule it out. They’re in contention for the #1 seed in a difficult AFC, they’ll be a tough out for any opponent and they’re fun to watch. That doesn’t seem out of reach for the Seahawks with the right plan. I’d also expect the Dolphins to give the 49ers a better game than Seattle did last week.
Trent Williams turns 36 next year, George Kittle 31 and Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Fred Warner will turn 28. Williams, Kittle and Samuel have recently experienced injuries. Further to this, Brock Purdy is 18 months away from needing to be paid. So while it’s fair to expect the 49ers to be the dominant force in the NFC West for another couple of years, I’m not sure this is necessarily a long-term problem. Many of their players are well into their careers.
Look at other teams in the league. The Bengals have a horrible offensive line and have done for years. Their defense is good not great. They made a Super Bowl because Joe Burrow is excellent, he has weapons and they know how to use them. I’d argue the Bills, struggling as they might be currently, have been a contender in recent seasons because of Josh Allen and an organised defense rather than a Niners-level of talent. There’s also the Chiefs — who rely a lot on Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones but otherwise have a so-so roster.
The Seahawks do not necessarily need to mimic the 49ers by going on an epic personnel run. They just need to be a lot better than they currently are.
Some may disagree but I think this is achievable by doing three things:
1. Having someone run the offense who can attack opponents, exploit weaknesses and make the most of the weapons available
2. Drafting a quarterback
3. Transferring resource from positions such as linebacker/safety to the trenches
I think people can easily be defeatist about point number two. I read/hear a lot about how difficult it is to find a great quarterback. That’s true — but it doesn’t mean it isn’t possible. The aim also doesn’t have to be to find the next Mahomes, as teams like the Eagles and Dolphins are showing. The Ravens, lest we forget, drafted their MVP candidate with the #32 pick.
I’ll go back to the Hurts example. He’s not a traditional ‘franchise quarterback’ destined to dominate the league for two decades. He works for the Eagles, though, and they get the most out of him. Creating a plan for your quarterback and his supporting cast can lead to results. How else do you explain the Vikings winning with Joshua Dobbs, catapulted into the line-up mid-season?
This week I’ll publish my horizontal board for the first time and there are lots of quarterbacks listed. It’s a deep year. You might not find the next Hall-of-Famer within the class but I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility you can find a very good starter who you can build an offense around. I’ll talk more about drafting a quarterback in a moment.
Point number three is something I’ve banged on about for a long time. Having $50m of cap space tied up in Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams next year is preposterous. The thought of retaining that and then paying Jordyn Brooks — and potentially retaining Bobby Wagner — just doesn’t make sense while questions remain on both sides of the ball up front, in the trenches. The aim for the Seahawks moving forward should be to be physical and excellent on the O-line and D-line. Simple as that.
Back to the first point on a new offensive leader. It’ll either come down to the franchise making a significant change at the top, which is very much in the ‘has to be seen to be believed’ category — although as mentioned earlier, it shouldn’t be out of the question as much as people think. If Jody Allen is running the franchise rather than acting as a placeholder as she claims, that requires big calls to be made — regardless of a future sale. If Carroll isn’t to depart, then they could/should still make a significant offensive coordinator hire. Let’s look at both scenarios.
For a while now I’ve thought if/when Carroll goes, Dan Quinn might be his replacement. Rightly or wrongly, there’d be some crossover. Part of me wonders if Allen was ever to turn to Carroll, shake his hand and call time, Carroll’s view on his replacement might be given a little too much credence over a more thorough search.
Carroll speaks so highly of Quinn. Although it would be another defensive minded Head Coach, he knows the benefit of pairing himself with a top coordinator (Kyle Shanahan), he has been to a Super Bowl as a leader and he feels somewhat willing to adapt and shift with the times — staying on top of tactical trends.
He could create a version of the Texans — where DeMeco Ryans is ably supported by Bobby Slowik, overseeing a young quarterback in C.J. Stroud. I’m still dubious though. As Mike Florio frequently highlights — if you have success as an offense, you’ll lose your coordinator. Losing Shanahan was the death knell for Quinn’s time in Atlanta. As noted above, the league is currently being led by teams with offensive identities.
Slowik himself might be worth considering, especially if you’re drafting a quarterback. He’s done a remarkable job with Stroud and is from the Shanahan tree. Other candidates could include Lions OC Ben Johnson, Dolphins OC Frank Smith and Commanders OC Eric Bieniemy. I particularly appreciate Bieniemy, given he walked away from the cushiest job in the NFL (being Mahomes’ coordinator and Andy Reid’s right-hand-man) to take on the same role with the hapless Commanders, working with a fifth round pick and first year starter at quarterback. He’s developed his reputation, with Sam Howell enjoying some success and the Chiefs taking a step backwards offensively without him. You have to respect the risk-factor involved here for Bieniemy.
If Carroll remains, then appointing a new coordinator would be a critical hire. He’s gone through Jeremy Bates, Darrell Bevell, Brian Schottenheimer and now, seemingly, Shane Waldron. Usually when you go through offensive coordinators like this, it’s because they get Head Coaching jobs. Instead, all will be fired (assuming Waldron is). That’s an especially poor record and speaks to part of the problem.
A replacement would need to be someone with a track record. It’s possible they could dangle the carrot of being the potential successor to Carroll (without putting it in writing, that won’t work) if things work out. I think this is fairly unlikely but it’s an option. There are other ways to make this an appealing job.
Firstly, Carroll can offer control. I actually think he’s done this with Waldron. There’s no way a Carroll-inspired offense would be running the ball this infrequently. Yet we’re also not seeing anything remotely close to the Shanahan/McVay offense under Waldron — which you would assume he would run given his background. Instead the offense has issues we’d seen before Waldron came to Seattle — making you wonder if Carroll is interfering too much. It’s so confusing.
The weapons on offer should be appealing. Any new coordinator will inherit a loaded roster full of talent. Furthermore, they can surely only get better. Fixing this unit could be seen as an intriguing challenge with a relatively straight forward route to rapid improvement and therefore reputation enhancement.
Thirdly, drafting a quarterback. Offering a new coordinator a chance to develop a young QB will have some appeal to certain candidates. Look how Slowik’s reputation has completely enhanced thanks to his work with Stroud in Houston. It’s also somewhat comforting for any new coordinator coming in that Seattle’s off-season priority is likely to be offense-centric.
We might see some big name coordinators on the market. It’s likely Brandon Staley and Ron Rivera will be fired, potentially making Kellen Moore and Bieniemy available (if they aren’t offered Head Coaching roles, which so far hasn’t happened over multiple cycles).
They could offer Ken Dorsey an opportunity to relaunch his career after being made a scapegoat in Buffalo. They might go and look at supposed ‘up-and-comers’ (although that might be too similar to Waldron) and target someone like Joe Bleymaier (Kansas City’s passing-game coordinator), Marcus Brady (senior offensive assistant for the Eagles), Tanner Engstrand (passing-game coordinator for the Lions), Brian Fleury (tight ends coach in San Francisco), Zac Robinson (Rams QB coach) or Duce Staley (Panthers assistant head coach). I’m sure there are others — these are just some names being projected to eventually gain promotions.
I suppose it’s also possible if Todd Bowles loses his job in Tampa Bay that Dave Canales could be available after a decent year in Tampa Bay. We know Carroll likes to appoint ‘his guys’.
A new offensive coordinator feels inevitable. What about drafting a quarterback though?
As I said after the game on Thursday, Geno Smith isn’t ‘the problem’ for the Seahawks. He just isn’t the solution either. They’re not going to take a big leap with Smith under center or reach the destination they crave. They need to draft someone.
This thought has been bouncing around in my mind for a few weeks and I’m going to chuck it out there today as part of this article. Could they make an ultra-aggressive move up the board, trading up for a quarterback?
Colin Cowherd and John Middlekauf talked about it yesterday. It might start to gain some traction. The Seahawks have pretty much added players at every other position on the roster over the last two off-seasons. Even though the 2023 season is falling apart, on paper they don’t have a lot of ‘glaring’ holes. They’re going to need to create cap space to keep or replace a long list of free agents, as discussed in detail here. But they might be prepared to do that.
It’s harder to move up after trading away your second rounder for Leonard Williams. That said, first round picks are the currency used to make bold trades. Would they be prepared to trade three of them away, just like San Francisco did, to get into range?
It’d be aggressive and risky but perhaps they have that much faith in Caleb Williams and Drake Maye? Many do.
This would be a way to generate excitement again. The franchise is flat at the moment. Sections of the fan base are wondering — quite rightly — what direction the team is heading. A lot of people anticipated growing pains and development. What they’ve seen is the complete collapse of an offense loaded with weapons and a team getting blown-out by good opponents.
They don’t have a cluster of high picks again like the last two years to focus minds and create a buzz. They actually have fewer picks than normal because of the Williams trade. If they keep struggling this year, more and more people are going to ask questions about the future.
Firing Waldron, making a new offensive coordinator hire, then trading up in the draft in order to try and find the Holy Grail at QB is a plan of sorts, whether you personally agree with it or not. When you write the words down, it’s very easy to imagine how this could get people on board again. It could make the 2024 season interesting, rather than feeling like more of the same.
They could bill it as ‘the final piece’ to add to this rebuild when you bring in the new QB. I’m just not convinced there’s any reason at this point to believe Carroll can lead a team back to serious contention. Maybe with an elite QB he could. Yet when you’re unable to even create a functioning identity for your team after two A+ drafts and a massive resource spend, how can you be confident he’d get it right?
Personally, I’m not sure they need to be this aggressive. I think good quarterbacks will be available to Seattle without moving up. It’s a deep group so whether it’s Spencer Rattler, Jayden Daniels, Quinn Ewers or whoever — they don’t necessarily have to move up. It comes down to grading and whether they want to be aggressive for a player with a top-five range versus settling for someone available later. Let’s not forget that Mahomes was the 10th pick, Jackson the 31st etc.
What do I think will happen? I think the Seahawks will fire Waldron, try to make a key offensive coordinator hire to fix the offense and they will then either trade up aggressively for a quarterback or they will simply draft one early. That’s my guess for the off-season as of the 27th November. I think a fresh start — appointing a new Head Coach to go with a new QB — would give you a better chance to right the ship. I’m just not sure Allen will do it.
Thoughts?
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Great article, Rob. You mentioned Ben Johnson as the Lions OC, but also list Brian Johnson as working for the Lions when he’s the Eagles OC.
Too many Johnson’s
Hopefully we get to see the “real” Brian Johnson on tour next year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NaQxUEfxt0
Too many Johnsons in this town
LOL, Rick beat to this reference.
Thank you very much for this work Rob, simply spectacular, what will happen ? Well …. here are my thoughts: Caroll will bring in an unknown OC so he can have control because with the above mentioned he surely won’t have control, I don’t think we should be aggressive for a QB, as you mention I see it possible that even in the 3rd round we can pick one or maybe in the first round we can pick Daniels if he is there. The interesting thing is that I BET ANYTHING that after next season, he will fire Clinn Hurtt because the defense really isn’t good. And since Pete has already got the fans used to looking the other way and not at the real problem as the fans will point to Hurtt etc. It’s unbelievable you read the tweets from the fans and all they say is : NO MATTER, we will go to playoffs, what’s the point of getting there and always losing ? When we lost vs Ravens everyone said it doesn’t matter it’s just one game, it’s NOT JUST ONE GAME, it’s a warning that we are not good (RAMS already warned you from the first week), then they beat the commanders and everyone said SEE ? It was just one game ….. that’s what Pete Carroll has accomplished, there is no hunger in the team or the fans. I know you like soccer a lot, last season I remember Guardiola in January said in an interview, this team (Manchester City) is not hungry, they have no desire, that made CLICK and they ended up winning everything, Pete is the opposite, he has all the fans and even the owner asleep.
Pete Carroll fans aggravated me. Going to the playoffs and losing in the wildcard or divisional round adds more to the “winning seasons” as a reason to keep him. They are content with that it seems while the 49ers are a powerhouse and it feels like at some point they’ll win a SB. These Petehawk fans are delusional blaming everyone else but him. And anyone who calls for Pete to be fired is called an idiot, a bandwagon, or has no idea what they’re talking about. They act like what’s going on right now will eventually pay off. Freakin stupid lol
Fan base is already divided and won’t change until Seahawks have a losing record and miss the playoffs.
Idk man we had a losing record 2 years ago and nothing really changed except for trading Wilson. Even if we had a few more losing seasons, these fans will still defend Carroll and blame someone else and continue to call out people who disagree. That’s how it is: hate Carroll you’re a bandwagon lol. They’re so delusional, they act like we won the SB just recently. I just recently saw a seahawk YouTube channel. A fan asked the guy who runs it “how many times you gonna give Pete a pass?” The guy responded saying “Me? Pretty much forever. He’s a great NFL coach who creates an environment players want to be a part of.” So pathetic and delusional. But unfortunately these are the type of fans we’re dealing with.
Thank you for all your hard work, Rob. And thank you to everyone on this forum.
I made you a Christmas card with AI of a young Pete Carroll with John Schneider back in his Luchador days in Tijuana.
https://x.com/AlbertB55481266/status/1728303501996937289?s=20
Salud!
I think Pete Carroll has veered wildly off his chosen course.
He made a remark last year about Bud Grant sticking to his guns and running what he thought was best, even though others did not think it was.
But the truth is, he’s gone way out of his way.
-So now, we have Shane Waldron running the #6 pass-heavy-est offense in the NFL, with the team having just drafted Running Backs in consecutive drafts. AND after insisting that the way to success was pulling the reins back hard on Russell Wilson when he wanted to throw more, and sticking to his guns in a year-long historic marriage-of-convenience style impasse with his franchise QB. What did he ‘win that war’ for?
-The defense has become an annual joke in the early going. Not being able to stop anyone, players not lined up correctly, and – crazily enough – defensive backs who have shoddy technique and have trouble adapting to receivers and route concepts. Without a consistent vision, he moved obvious key pieces all around to unnatural positions just to keep the roster staffed. He played 4-3 players in 3-4 concepts all year last year. Cody Barton could not get a snap at LB in 2020-21 was featured heavily in 2022 and had no idea how to read a gap. Jordyn Brooks to MLB, Dre Jones inside instead of at DE, Marquise Blair everywhere but safety, Coby Bryant at nickel, Jarran Reed to NT, Jamal Adams has been a designated blitzer, but the last two years he’s been a typical strong safety who cannot provide game-changing impact. It all tells me he no longer had the ‘I want this position player who has this profile and can do this’ anymore. He’s strayed so far from his formula it is unrecognizable.
-Tight ends, from Zach Miller who played on the field as a great blocker and soft hands catcher, to now having 3 of them who cannot even get on the field because they are not running tight end formations hardly anymore. When Noah Fant comes out, he lines up wide a lot, yet is not injected into the passing game in any way. Honestly, what do they want to do with tight ends? It has been an enduring mystery.
-I still maintain the NFL/NFLPA rules on physical practices has impacted Carroll more than he will ever admit. In the early days, players went to war every day. Carroll said in his ‘Win Forever’ book that game day was the easiest day of the week, because the players only had to play for a couple hours and had breaks when the other unit was on the field. They’ve gotten their hand slapped more than once for having too physical a practice, and Pete has never adjusted, except for trying to substitute ‘pumped and jacked’ for being physical. People want to know where ‘being the bully’ went to? That’s where it went to. Players taking idiot penalties that hurt the team rather than playing tough, physical, assignment-sound football. Your highly paid free safety dancing around contact. Corners who think you can just push a guy and he’ll go to the ground.
That is why this team has no direction. Their leader has no direction. He’s a sailor who has been tossed around by the winds and the waves so much that when he intended to sail to Mexico, he’s made so many adjustments he’s headed for the Alaskan glaciers and thinks Mexico is just having an unseasonably cool summer.
“That is why this team has no direction. Their leader has no direction. He’s a sailor who has been tossed around by the winds and the waves so much that when he intended to sail to Mexico, he’s made so many adjustments he’s headed for the Alaskan glaciers and thinks Mexico is just having an unseasonably cool summer.”
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!!! That’s funny! Sadly, it’s true, too:(
Fantastic summation of why Carroll should be gone and why this franchise will not return to elite status until he is gone Curtis. Not included was his insistence on getting the old guard back, i.e. Frank Clark, Bruce Irvin, et. al. and his refusal to admit mistakes e.g. Jamal, Diggs and move on as he did early on in his career. You did a great job listing all the football failings and I have no doubt your opinion about practices is spot on. I just listed a couple of the psychological reasons he’s failed. Why has this become the Pete Carroll vanity project? I’ll say absolute power corrupts absolutely. If anyone else has an idea about the psychology of the demise to mediocrity of this franchise, please chime in.
I might add that he demonstrates the typical signs/behavior of someone who answers to no one………..hiring “his guys” a.k.a. yes men and one after another with the same results, hiring family members, etc.
We were mostly optimistic with the last two drafts looking good, but the big choices over the last few years have been bad. The one I am most disappointed in is this years trade deadline.
The Seahawks should have been sellers at the trade deadline. I would have liked to see a massive sell off of veteran players rather than overpaying for one lineman. They sentenced themselves to middle of the pack and another year of crappy football.
Agree about the run/pass ratio. It’s completely out of whack for what Carroll has always leaned into. Peteball vs let Russ cook were divergent philosophies and one had to give. Pete held the throne and now is letting Geno cook?
Makes no sense. We are 3rd to last in the NLF in rushing attempts on the year. Down with the Commanders, Jets, Titans, Panthers, etc. Who is up at the top you ask? Ravens, Eagles, 49ers are all top 5.
And – as you mention spending up on RB’s in the draft.
We’re dead last in time of possession! Last year we were 31st! Why are we leaning further into the Let Geno Cook side?
Because the team is being run abysmally
👏👏👏
“These days, it feels increasingly like the Seahawks are committed to being able to beat bad teams.”
BINGO! You hit the nail on the head. Actions speak louder than words and this is what Pete Carroll and Jody Allen are… people can lie, results don’t.
I’m cool with some rookie QB growing pains in 2024. I’m not cool with retread never-have-beens at the most important position in pro sports. Geno and Lock should be allowed steal someone else’s money next year.
Excellent article as usual Rob. You’ve laid out some great stuff here. Hard to give a crap anymore tho until and when Carroll is gone. Just doesn’t feel like it’s going to get any better until that happens. Apathy, thy name is “Seahawk fan”.
“Hard to give a crap anymore…”
Yep. That’s what it has come to.
From someone I know saw the moving vans at the same time I did, we’ve been in darker places before, way darker.
I’m focusing on what comes next, even if it means leading the charge myself.
They’ll just keep treading water. So gd depressing.
According to ESPN, the Bears, who control the Panther’s #1 pick, have a 67% chance of picking first overall.
What I would like is for the Seahawks is a quarterback on the roster to have some mobility.did anyone watch the Bills against Eagles. Hurts and Allen running for first downs.geno Smith is just like Phillip Rivers throws a great ball but is a statue in the pocket.i am pretty sure the 49er DL just loves that.the Seahawks handled the 49ers when we had mobile qb.just a thought.
It’s really helpful to have a running QB, especially early on in a QBs career. Unfortunately the number of guys that can run, read a D and make accurate throws is a super low. We’re talking Lamar, Hurts and Allen. Then a bunch of guys that might be able to do that, but haven’t pulled it all together yet.
But I don’t a running QB is a necessity. You can’t be a statue, but as long as you can run occasionally when it’s wide open that’s enough. Geno regressing from 366 yards running last year to just 86 yards so far this year is a significant part of his overall regression.
At the end of the day it’s all about having a creative offence that plays to the QBs strength. Mahomes, Hebert, Burrow, Stroud – you can get good QB play with modest rushing ability.
Rob, I agree with the summary of this article that wholesale changes are needed. What Allen does is the big unknown.
Is she just waiting a year to begin the process of selling the the team? It does not make fiduciary sense to pay two head coaches at the same time, so I don’t see Pete being fired unless things get real ugly.
This is all set up for Pete to politely blame the offensive struggles on Wladron and try to run it back next year with most of the same cast of characters.
The best thing for the Seahawks might be to get their ass kicked the next 3 weeks and get the fans and national media saying that coach Carroll should go. Would a half empty Lumen Field and apathetic fans spur the necessary changes?
Really enjoy how Pete has handled the OC’s. Now instead of an up and Comer Seattle will get to sift through the sands to pick amongst guys who have no other options.
I hate we’ve got to this point. I want my team to win or go down swinging. Instead of the new like a rocky year with Stroud or whatever instead I need 5-6 straight losses to get everyone to wake up.
I don’t buy that Allen wont fire Pete for financial reasons. She does have a fiduciary duty to the trust, and to spend say 15% of the trusts operating revenue on 2 coaches would indeed be breaking that duty. But firing Pete and replacing him is a fraction of the teams operating revenue in the big picture, and if the fans are turning on the coach it’s just as irresponsible to leave a coach there that will turn off fans and run the franchise into the ground. She could easily justify buying out Petes contract to herself and any board she answers to if she sees fit. I personally feel like Pete was given a much shorter leash after trading Russ and resetting, and it’s finally evident to everyone that its not working. I hear everyone talk about the Petehawk fans but they aren’t near as vocal anymore. In person, Facebook, here, wherever I’m finally hearing fans say enough is enough and we need new blood.
Agreed a parting of ways with Pete is not financially the same thing that Davis and Tepper find themselves in.
I think that the best situation would be if Allen could politely ask Pete to retire and reach a quiet financial settlement with him. Let everyone beleive that he is retireing of his own free will.
I really don’t want to see the Seahawks get any more beatdowns this season. I would like to see come competetive games in the next three weeks and have some hope for the future. More non-competetive games may encourage the organization to make the necessary changes, though.
Carroll has seemingly lost the fans, at least that is the feeling.
I think if Allen is acting as the owner she has to have a direct talk with Carroll. He can choose how, but following the AZ game he will be relieved of his duties. He can announce it, term it however he wants, he has earned that much.
OAK, CAR, WAS, LAC, BUF and others (NE, CHI?) are all rumored to be looking at head coach changes this offseason, Seattle may be the most attractive of those destinations, or it can make itself so.
And she should follow the trend, hire an offensive mind.
Ben Johnson is a popular name, but how much do fans really know about the consensus #1 HC candidate? Bobby Slowik is heating up with Stroud’s emergence, but do you buy it? Bieniemy being passed over again and again might have been for a reason, but his results look good.
Maybe try Wes Phillips the Vikes OC? Or go the college route again and try to lure Matt Campbell or Ryan Day?
I’m curious if any community members have opinions, biased or otherwise as to who they would like to either succeed Carroll (or take the OC job as the HC in waiting).
Son of Wade Phillips
He has a heckuva pedigree.
Current Vikes OC, Passing game coordinator for Super Bowl champ rams, McVay disciple, Jay Gruden, Jason Garrett
Grandpa was a coach too.
He’d be in my personal top 5, but I’ve only just started digging in on coaches, listening to interviews and the like.
Two points:
1. Head coach in waiting….I don’t feel that. Team if sold the in waiting designation is fairly immaterial. I know folks softening to the idea of Pete being done would suggest Pete picking his successor.
Just felt like a way to not have to say goodbye while saying goodbye.
2. The Bills are the most desired opening if it happens. Crazy fans, firm but fair media, unlike here do not have an ownership flux and unlike here if you get one ring you get to become the mayor there like Pete is here.
Re 1 – absolutely feel that, plus Carroll doesn’t seem like the sort of guy who sits around with a successor in waiting.
Re 2- I heard someone (Rapport, Schefter?) predict 7-10 HC vacancies this off-season. Seahawks fans are not the Bills Mafia, but close; fawning media; if ownership is not in flux(?); I’ll give you mayor of Buffalo status. Seattle offers a bigger market, a team that has been ascendant for almost 25 years, a chance to hand-pick the QB for your system, also worth noting that a new coach inherits the culture Carroll built (for better or worse) and can build on that however they choose.
Terry pegula, the bills owner, has his wife as president and owner of the bills so in his passing she owns the team and not a goofy trust. Additional the pegulas own the Buffalo sabers (nhl) and three or so minor keague teams in the Buffalo area. Essentially he’s the fracking (oil, natural gas) version of tge late Paul Allen.
Rob or anyone, what are your thoughts on Oregon (puke) Center Jackson Powers-Johnson? If we are going to allow a Duck on the Seahawks let it be a future fixture at C.
R3 on my board
#4 center
Then I’d vote for QB in the 1st & C in the 3rd.
If the chosen one isn’t there in the 1st then go Sed Van Pran 1st & QB next.
I’ve seen a few arm chair YouTube draft enthusiasts rank him as the #1 IOL prospect. I don’t agree that he’s better than Beebe or Barton but he looks really good
The most important question remaining this season for me is whether or not Abe Lucas can get & stay healthy going forward as our cornerstone RT. If not…well that would flat suck.
To get one of the top 3 qbs they will have to trade above the Falcons, in my opinion, Daniels I think is now top 10 easy 3rd qb off the board. Texas qb going back to school. unless they love SC qb he should be there if the stay put. I know Falcons leading div with with a losing record but I think NO wins div and 2nd place team could have a top 10 pick…
Wow, after reading that I have nothing to add except, you are 100% correct
Here is my issue with Bienemy: from what came out the last 2 years down here in KC, he supposedly isn’t a popular player’s coach. That’s a big reason why he left. The players were done with him and he was getting a littl antagonistic. I don’t know how that will go or if that issue is resolved, but he’s had stuff like that clear back to when he was back at Colorado.
But yet, dude can coach. He’s making short Will Grier look like a qb that a team can plan around. And no matter what, he was also the one who was in there with Mahomes.
There’s been a lot of chatter about him and why he hasn’t got a Head Coaching opportunity. And that definitely warrants reflection and consideration.
It was talked about every offseason down here. I know that he had some big issues when he was coaching at Colorado and had some personal issues. But last year, fans were done with him.
But they have their players and Andy Reid, so it’s easy to get move in from the guy when they were putting guy after guy in and he was doing well.
I think after the job with Washington this year, he’s too seasoned to get passed over again.
I’d happily roll the dice
The stuff at Colorado is…not good.
It was awhile ago, but probably has played a role in a team not wanting to hire him right now.
There was that little blip in Commanders’ camp about the players thinking Bienemy’s approach was too intense. Ron Rivera quickly snuffed it out.
But it could be argued the Seahawks team needs some intensity.
So like the anti-Carroll?
I think Bieniemy could be the next Belli, but with offenses. Bill isn’t known for being a players coach either. Neither is Siriani (quite the opposite).
Seeing what WAS has drawn up this year I’d be fascinated to see Bieniemy paired with Ewers and maybe a Malachi Corley addition.
Rob’s points about getting an offensive minded coach, plus my memory of Holmgren, has me pining for a Coach that wipes the ‘genius’ designation off Shanahan and McVay, a coach who schemes a cheat code like DeBoer (and others) have in the NCAA. Madden type offensive stats.
Bienemy could do that. The scheming that they do (him and Reid) and the in-game planning is impressive.
Tyler Van Dyke in the transfer portal.
Also, the sun came up this morning.
I’ve heard a lot of wild rumors about where he might go. The weirdest one is Texas, after Arch Manning leaves. But what if Ewers stays? That makes no sense.
Could be a great option for Oregon, Washington or Kentucky
Will Howard also not turning pro and going to the portal
Damn, is he really?
Van Dyke seems like a KSU kind of quarterback. Power and an arm.
How much would going to KSU help his draft stock?
How about Ohio State?
Night and day difference.
I could see that making him at least a 3rd. Some schools just coach their kids up and give them NFL coaching.
I used to hate the transfer portal. Now I think it is great!
As a Husky fan, I just as soon have a new portal QB every year. The success rate is higher on experienced QBs and the young five stars are hard to get and are learning on the job.
It is like the Power Five conferences are using the rest of college football as a minor league. I think it helps reward excellence and give top performers a chance to improve their stock for a job in the NFL.
Cristobal is the CFB equivalent of Staley
I’d say he’s even worse
Josh Dobbs is such a great story. He is a Starting Quarterback in the NFL and also has an Aerospace Engineering Degree. His poor Win-Loss Ratio (3-8) this season and 3 Interceptions tonight shouldn’t matter.
It is sure interesting whom the media wants to hype up before they prove it on the field.
Left field here – Wgat about Jim Harbaugh as the next head coach??
Can’t see them replacing the most storied coach in team history with his old nemesis
Please help me to understand. When Waldron was hired it was amid a lot of excitement. A highly regarded offensive mind from the Rams, it seemed. So lack of achievement of a dynamic offense doesn’t seem like all his fault. Did the head coach handcuff him? Or is it more attributable to lack of execution by the players on the field.
It’s impossible to say without intimate knowledge of who is having what input/final say on the offense.
I welcomed the appointment because it was an outsider from the McVay tree. I can’t say I’ve ever been convinced by Waldron, though, listening to his interviews.
How about Prime Time? Sure, they may be mediocre for a little bit. But they’d be entertaining and could attract coordinators that want attention and opportunity.
+1 for Deion!
Then get Rattler.
Epic work.
It’s exceedingly difficult, however, to get either pumped or jacked at the thought of Pete having another go at it. Even if he were to somehow stumble into hiring the next Mike McDaniel, give him total control of the offense and remain hands-off, there are too many other opportunities with the defense and special teams that could/would somehow escape Pete’s attention even though they’re so glaring that they’d been topics of discussion on the SDB for months.
Until a change is made at the very top, we’re all just Phil Connors at the very moment Pete’s Ned Ryerson has told us to “watch that first step – it’s a doozy.”
Carl Spackler from Caddyshack would have made quick work of that groundhog.
You know, in Frank Reich’s defense, 1-10 isn’t so bad.
That’s my score in bowling.
The Seahawks under Carroll reminds me of IBM’s rise and fall in the computer world.
Pete Carroll came to the NFL fresh out of his time from USC. Got the Seahawks to the top with some truly innovative ideas and pure great management and team-building. No two ways about it. Then slowly, as others caught on, as other computer companies copied IBM, they caught up and kept pace with IBM. Despite this, IBM stayed as a major company in the field because of what they had.
Then all of a sudden, the pace starts to increase, and Apple and Dell have blown up the computer market, and IBM has been smoked and left behind and flounders slowly to their death, limping until the end believing they can still get back to their glory days, losing what made them great at all.
Pete Carroll’s lost himself. He hasn’t hit rock-bottom because of the past two drafts and the great infusion of talent he’s brought to the team. He just doesn’t have the missing piece, the coaching acumen and clear vision to build this team around that he had in 2012. I’m reminded of the end of the Holmgren/Hasselbeck era in 2008, when it was time to move on. They had a year with Mora then hit on Carroll who brought a whole new idea to the NFL. They just need to do the same, again, somehow.
100% agreed Rob. Am I the only one who’s looking at Todd Monken and thinking that if Pete has a say in his future replacement, this might be our guy?
Monken has been around the block a bit.
I wouldn’t rule him out as a candidate, but he wouldn’t be my tier 1.
What is it you like about him?
Not that I like something about him, but he struck me as the kind of choice Pete would make, if he had the possibility to influence the decision.
Pete’s influence. Kind of feels like we’ve seen a bit of that.
I want our next owner to love football.
I posted this back on October 15th at 3:40pm:
“It’s only a matter of time until teams realize Bobby Wagner is a liability in coverage. Watch for San Fran to exploit that regularly if they have McCaffrey and Samuel.”
That’s good coaching! They saw the weakness and they exploited it with a strength. Makes me jealous.
In the press conference Pete mentioned the Hawks had four plays ready to exploit the weaknesses they had seen on film, but they had to check out of them because of the way the defense lined up.
My question – Why didn’t the 49ers have to check out of plays designed to exploit Bobby in coverage?
I think this is an excellent point which reinforces the need to move on from Pete, which at this point feels like beating a dead horse except that the horse is clearly still kicking. We have to beat it until it stops breathing unfortunately.
It’s no longer good enough to have an offense that looks to take advantage of a handful of explosive plays to create scoring opportunities. It’s not in any way okay that that was Seattle’s offensive approach.
San Francisco didn’t hit a handful of deep passes to score 31 on Seattle (even after they took their foot off the gas in the second half). Their longest pass in terms of air yards past the line of scrimmage was the final touchdown and that was only a little over 20 yards past.
The Niners had 7 drives of 33 yards or more and only one of their touchdown drives started inside Seattle territory (they still had 45 yards to go on that one). (Despite what Hawkblogger will have you believe, that is not good defense.) They only converted 5 third downs on those 7 drives and only had one pass completed that could be considered a truly deep ball and even that was only middling.
If you give the Niners deep ball opportunities, they will gladly take it, but their sophisticated, modern offense is predicated on high percentage plays that keep the team out of third down and give dynamic playmakers (which Seattle also has) the chance to create explosive yards while still gaining significant yards even if they don’t turn into long gains.
This is why firing Waldron isn’t the answer. I don’t have any idea what Waldron is really capable of because this offense is still Pete’s offense. It is still built around the philosophy of hitting a few deep balls per game to create scoring chances, which is why we see only deep routes on third and short occasionally.
Pete might be giving Waldron some leeway with regard to pass/run ratio, though I suspect that is being driven more by the looks they are getting and their limited success running into heavy boxes than it is by any deliberate design, but the underlying philosophy never changes.
so many great points in this article and the comment section. thanks Rob.
i have no faith in Pete, he doesn’t have faith in himself or schemes either: he used to cut people, sit players that weren’t playing well, and used a clear plan to move forward. the seahawks cannot do that now. they are lost, and have been.
the offense is simplistic, because that is how pete wants it. the seahawks do not attack the middle of the field. tight ends can be used over the middle of the field, but are not. the rams and the 49ers attack the middle of the field. waldron does not, because pete won’t (this is opinion). changing waldron will do little. bevel, schotty, waldron. doesn’t matter. simplistic routes, simplistic strategies: pete carroll.
that the defense, coincidentally, employs a middle linebacker that cannot defend the middle of the field from passing concepts is just funny. and shows the practices are not competitive. if teams can roast bobby come game time, how can’t the seahawks offense do the same in practice? why is any of this seemingly a surprise? acting surprised, for years is wild.
the defense has been poor for a long time. there is not a side of the ball, or a facet of the game to hang a hat on. if the team had a bad offense, but a punishing defense, i’d watch every game and yell my guts out. this is just soft crap on both sides. and it’s been going on for so so so so so so so so so so long. i am more interested in reading content on this blog, than watching the game. win or lose, it’s not an exciting, ascending, good product.
pete will not be fired. i have no faith that he will be. the trailblazers aren’t good. they haven’t gotten better. they don’t have plans to get better.
pete will not retire. he has an unlimited capacity to chew gum and get his ass kicked. it’s amazing.
Great article Rob, and Cha’s comment upstream was incredible as well.
I’ve been done with Pete for a long time. Football historians can debate his role in winning the Super Bowl, but I put much more of the success that year in drafting/signing outstanding players than in his defensive schemes and coaching ability. When you have that much talent you don’t need to be a wizard with the X’s and O’s. This was also how his tenure at USC was. He simply out-recruited other schools. But his success and ego has left him unable and unwilling to change with the times. Rule changes hogtied the LOB until they all broke down, and running backs (and running offenses) aren’t as effective in comparison to the passing game. Pete’s stuck in a time warp where he could run, run, run, then have a QB throw deep.
We’re in purgatory. Will we be delivered? Your plan is exactly what should be done, but will it? Will we be back here in late November 2025 lamenting how this second rebuild has not delivered? I’ve never been as disillusioned as a Seahawk fan. Even during the Flores/Behring years, I still held hope. I realize to many owners, their franchise is just a way to make money, not compete. And I doubt Jody has any real interest in football, unlike Paul. I used to make fun of Jerry Jones, and Robert Kraft, but at least they gave a sh#t about winning. I can’t stomach an team owner in any sport who doesn’t care about winning.
1. I actually think Jody cares about football. If we take it that Paul Allen was a passionate sports fan and civic minded individual I doubt he’d put his sister in charge of anything sports related “just cause.” It would have just as easy to give her a position with Vulcan development, or overseeing his arts minded interests EMP, cinerama redevelopment, etc.
2. The further we get from 2012 the more I am in agreement with the idea you are inferring here. Pete had an uncanny advantage coming from a huge college program instead of being a Ron Rivera retread type. He was for his time one of the best college recruiters and knew players far and wide that he wanted in his team.
The move for Earl over Mays is very indicative of that process.
As he lost that advantage over his contemporaries and contracts exploded he turned into a typical old man running a business. Where they lean increasingly into familiarity and comfort.
I don’t see how he has any advantage tactically, schematically, team building, or other of his peers at this point.
A lot is made of the ‘culture.’ But what even is that?
I always thought it was best player plays over everything else. That you draft the best player over the known player. You make moves and cuts like they did the first few years to find anyone who was going to grind even 1% harder than the other guy and if you did that with your whole focus simple scheme and 50/50 run,pass could still win because everyone to paraphrase from the first Rams game…”wanted it more.”
Now the culture to me is old guys come back because Pete’s a softy and let’s you find a nice place to settle into. That the idea that you are ‘the best in the nation’ far exceeds that practical need to be that. Where feel good stories are rewarded over winning. And we’re always just one player, one different penalty call, one more draft, one more OC, one healthier olinemen, one whatever away from being good again.
Sidebar: this mentality represents a ton of fans as well. Fans blaming Myers for ruining Geno’s comeback, fans in comments anywhere on the internet saying we are “young,” we are loaded with talent we just need to make better use of it, just anything but admitting the obvious. The whole operation is adrift and and one of two things is happening:
1. They aren’t using, coaching the talent correctly. Which does seem fairly self evident. Two running backs for a pass first team. As Cha notes playing people at any position but there own.
2. And this might be the more bitter pill. We aren’t that talented. Because the last time this goofy coach with his simple systems had a loaded roaster we used to destroy teams.
Getting stuffed twice at the end of last game pretty much sums up the strength of the offense vs 49ers defense.
We’ve been waiting a long time for an offensive coach that can draw up more complex plays. I’m hearing about a pack of crossing routes, they do show up once in awhile but not often enough. Still can’t run a full screen play or a quick slant in the middle.
The truth is you don’t need to throw more than 20 yards. It’s exciting when you do- the American way it’s exciting to drive 80 mph and weave through traffic as you speed to the game. But not necessary. A lot of yardage is made after the catch. You want to throw 40 yards- great. The top teams will get that 40 yards over multiple plays while wearing down opposing defenses. Meanwhile your team just sent their tired defense back on the field for the unpteenth time.
Last- complex plays can be stollen from any team. So their is no excuse not to practice them .
What’s the educated opinion on Brooks? In the unlikely event that Pete (and John?) aren’t retained, does Brooks even have a place on the team? How much of the desire to resign him will be familiarity and the ownership of having (over)drafted him? He’s had a better season this year but when Bobby was gone last season, he seemed lost at sea. Do we trust him enough to make him the paid man in the middle? If not, do we fill he role with a cheap vet and hope to find another mid-round eventual starter in the draft? Just another roster question mark woefully underprepared for by the FO.
History tells us Carroll will bring him back and likely overpay.
I hope not. Big Mike is probably right though we’ve let plenty of mid tier FA go.
Our inside linebackers have been expensive via cap and draft capital for a few years now.
Bobby clearly has to go. We can’t put someone on the field that our two biggest rivals repeatedly expose. He is a great leader, a run stuffer, and he’s just to able to to be manipulated. We don’t need to pay for a run stuffer.
If Brooks was coached up by KJ and Bobby and couldn’t handle the role so much that we have to bring back and trot out Bobby? Can’t have him. He’s never showed much of a killer instinct, he’s middling at best in coverage, why risk paying a mid tier linebacker you can’t trust to lead the defense.
I don’t love the idea of having to spend draft capital on linebackers, and seems few are standing out in the draft process, but we desperately need some sideline to sideline speed and energy to match Witherspoon.
Bobby Wagner as LB coach? Pete kicked ‘upstairs’ as consultant.
Going back 30 years to 1992, the only QBs to win a SB that aren’t or won’t be in the HoF:
– Trent Dilfer – 2000
– Brad Johnson- 2002
– Joe Flacco- 2012
– Nick Foles- 2017
– for argument sake, I’m slotting Russ and Stafford as in the HoF
Performing this same exercise with Head Coaches requires a bit more projection for the HoF:
– Barry Switzer- 1995 (with Aikman)
– Brian Billick- 2000
– Jon Gruden- 2002
– Sean Payton- 2009 (with Brees)
– Gary Kubiak- 2015 (with Manning)
– Mike McCarthy- 2010 (with Rodgers)
– Doug Peterson- 2017
– Bruce Arians- 2020 (with Brady)
– Sean McVay- 2021 (with Stafford)
– for argument sake, I’m slotting Siefert, Holmgren, Shanahan, Tomlin, Coughlin, Harbaugh, Carroll, Reid, Belichick in the HoF.
My takeaways here are: 1) behind every great coach is a great (or even greater) QB, 2) it’s extremely rare to win a SB without a HoF QB, 3) some of these HoF or fringe HoF coaches don’t have HoF resumes without a HoF QB next to them
Finding the next HoF coach AND HoF QB for the Seahawks might be a long journey. I can understand why they might hold on to Pete longer than they should. I also find it malpractice if they don’t try to find the next HoF QB this offseason. Unless the defense becomes an all-time great unit next season, the Seahawks are in purgatory without drafting a QB.
I tend to dislike analysis based on who’s won a Super Bowl. It’s just hard to get there, and plenty of great teams never win it. Particularly with the Patriots dynasty.
But your final point is just about impossible to argue with. Pete and John haven’t shown the ability to run an effective QB-agnostic offense and haven’t shown the ability to get more bang for their buck with contracts.
The only effective route for Pete, is to get a rookie contract QB that’s good enough to run an offense and build a team with enough extra capital that you don’t have to perfectly manage the cap.
Not drafting a QB for years is malpractice. Got to this year. It resets expectations and makes the team both better and an underdog vibe.
Yes, the Manning family and Brady skew the analysis, but that’s also kind of the point too. If we went back further, you’d need a Montana, Bradshaw, Staubach, Starr. If the goal of the team is to win the SB- this is what you need. 30 years is still more than half the SB ever played and captures the modern passing era so I don’t think it’s irrelevant.
I can also understand that these teams aren’t built overnight and they may not start building with a QB. This version of the Seahawks isn’t talent starved. It needs better coaching and more promising QB play. Whether the former starts with Carroll or coordinators is up for some debate, but the latter certainly shouldn’t be.
You can double the sample size and see that most of the losing QBs are pretty damn good too
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Super_Bowl_starting_quarterbacks
Or ask it the other way around, what hall of fame QB HASN’T been to the Super Bowl? Dan Fouts? Warren Moon? It’s a short list. Honestly I think it’s rather silly to think you don’t need a star quarterback. The team goes as the QB goes, without that your chances become very very slim.
I just don’t think that Pete can do that. Say you gave him a good QB again. He still wouldn’t have that incredible defense around to make up for his schematic issues on defense. I don’t buy into any of the stuff about him being a “DB whisperer.” There have been too too many flops in the backfield for that to be true. And despite being a “defensive” minded coach, where are his innovations. As others have said, he’s more of a “line my guys up and see who’s better” type of coach than an Xs and Os.
Can’t say I disagree.
It’s been interesting to watch the Seahawks media come around to the reality of the team. The narratives shifting hard, and clearly Pete smells it based on his comments this week, aside from his surely growing frustration.
The Man-2-Man podcast continued their circular no- blame game. In the end of this weeks postgame podcast, they seemed to conclude that “Mahomes couldn’t operate any better in this offense”, the offense is really talented but full of bad communication, the defense has no heart, and just started to question if Pete’s the guy but we’re concerned about getting a good coach to replace him.
If Mahomes can’t run the offense and both sides of the ball lack discipline or effort, and yet personnel is not the problem, how are you defending the Pete???
My biggest problem with Pete and John have been that they’ve doubled down on clear mistakes and have guys on the team that aren’t protecting the team. I like Pete’s philosophies for the most part. But I despise yet another Pete Carroll team that can’t run the ball or tackle.
My bet (not my want) is a Pete led team, with a new OC paired with (hopefully) a cheaply acquired Justin Fields on the last year deal with an option.
Pete + an OC who wouldn’t cut it somewhere else + not a cheap Fields but a blockbuster trade for Josh Allen.
TBH I actually do not think the Bills are trading Allen. I think their head coach is gone after the season.
Well consider us in agreement 😂
I sure wouldn’t bet on an Allen trade. Any changes in Buffalo are like 98% firing McDermott, 2% trading Allen. And then after the 2% hits, we have to outbid teams with actual top draft picks to offer.
Now do I want to will it into existence? Sure. Sign Ohtani too while we’re at it.
I agree, Allen has a lot of life left in his career. I read an article today saying they would have won the game except for miscommunication with the receiver. (Yes I could say that about any team) I’m convinced Allen threw to the wrong sp0t in the end zone, and the receiver couldn’t see that ball until it was too late due to the bad weather.
Anyway, the media isn’t blaming Allen, they are blaming the rest of the team or the coach.
Buffalo is currently $29 million over the cap in 2024 and would take something like a $55 million dead money hit from trading Allen in the off season. Trading Allen doesn’t seem like a tenable option for Buffalo in 2024.
https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills
Logical.
I was thinking more simply that it took them 20 years to find a great qb
I’m with Peter here. Despite his few flaws, Allen is still easily a top 5 QB in the league and as far as we know, he’s not a malcontent or bad guy so why would the Bills consider trading him? Every team without a franchise QB would kill to have a QB like Allen.
One issue I’ve been thinking about lately is whether Jody Allen will issue instructions on long term contracts or on expensive contracts. Do they want to sell a team loaded with bad contracts? It was okay when Allen owned the team. But what happens if say Pete signs Adam’s and Diggs to 5 year extensions for say 25 million a year? What control is there? Another unknown.
Maybe Allen will step in and set some limits like nothing more than 2 years and 10 million/year without approval. This may effect players like Williams.
Highly doubt this would happen.
They don’t sign players for more than 4 seasons.
And they usually have guaranteed money up front and have a ton of non-guaranteed money in the later years. It would not be any problem for a new administration to jettison them. And the cost of dead money is a drop in the bucket compared to the franchise value.
NOT SAYING THIS IS WHAT I WANT, but curious…
What would you trade for Justin Fields if the Bears shop him?
Uh.. I’d give them a hot cup of coffee and a snickers bar. I might be pushed to include the mug the coffee comes in if they really play hardball.
I don’t want Fields
Turnover machine
Only bring him up because he may be a unique player still on rookie deal that may be available.
He’s an all or nothing guy.
Same reason I brought him up. If John yet again can’t pull the trigger on a QB, he seems in the wheelhouse of a Seahawks QB, not that I want him on the team. Rob brings up a good point about him being a turnover machine, but if we can’t run or stop the run, why not add QB turnovers to the list.
I think it’d be silly to cross Fields off the list of potential options.
Why? They are currently in trouble with the qb situation because they got cheap and thought that they could get by. Push it off down the road.
He doesn’t know how to play the position. He was as raw as possible coming in. We don’t have the coaching nor the time to worry about turning him into the level that Geno is.
They need to get serious and do the work, find THEIR OWN GUY. Not get another team’s cast offs again.
He shouldn’t be an option.
Nothing.
We have enough running backs.
Taylor, Prez, Diggs…. For starters…
Give Fields a chance to win a spot in preseason.
If the Seahawks don’t draft a QB early in 2024, i would be willing to give up a Round 3 Pick on Fields. Bring him in and let him battle it out for the starting job.
I don’t know why, but i kind of like Fields.
I love the enthusiasm that Carroll brings to the team.
Would love to see him at the top and just be the guy that sets the culture.
Creates that feeling of excitement in the building.
But that would be as far as it goes.
I would hire a new offensive and defensive coordinators.
Give them full control of personnel, schemes, play calling on their sides of the ball.
Zero input from Carroll about what the team is going to do. He is just there to create that vibe he has.
They need to draft a QB. Really hoping for Spencer Rattler. Use the first round pick on him.
They need to cut Adams and Diggs. Not making any where near enough of an impact for the salary.
They need to trade Metcalf because he is not producing what he is being paid and there will be a team out there that thinks his physical traits are something that they can bring out.
That’s it though isn’t it.
Pete is never going to let schottenheimer field a top ten offense with half the weapons we have now and let fangio, spagnola, Schwartz, etc just do their thing.
It would be a nice way for him to set sail to the future.
Also, just me, but I think we’ve heard enough about culture for sometime. At least for me to last a whole other coaching regime.
I don’t remember hearing one word about culture under Holmgren or Knox. I never hear about culture except for exceptionally tenured coaches Pete, bellichick, tomlin.
I don’t have a clue about Shannahan, Mcvay, or even Reids Tomlin..
Obviously you don’t want a Mora but passed that….
I mean that’s it isn’t it Peter? As much as people have suggested and as much as people want Pete Carroll to be the figurehead it’s never gonna happen. The only change we will see is if he is shown the door. If he is not he will make Waldron the fall guy (he’s already started that process) and will continue with what we’ve seen again next year and the year after until she does show him the door or the team is sold and he is shown the door by new ownership. Prove me wrong Jody
I’m not sure they’ll get the chance. Current draft order has 9 QB-needy teams picking before Seattle.
Clearly that’s subject to change, probably for the better given the prognostication for the next stretch of games.
But I think Rattler will rise swiftly and significantly in the post-season, pre-draft process. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up QB2 in the class.
I see this every year about a big run on qbs and I’ve yet to see it materialize. If nine or even six qbs are taken before pick #22 I’ll be stunned.
Re: Rattler. I really don’t know. You’ve got Williams. Maye. Daniels because there is something there for sure and Gm’s plus owners love a heisman winner. Not a Rob player, nor mine, but Nix will appeal to some teams.
I think Rattler will get the Levis run. It’s not his fault but SC has done nothing and he was benched previously. Perception is a lot of reality come draft time and he is getting zero run right now except and I truly mean this….here on SDB.
That wasn’t my point — every QB needy team taking one just to take one, to hell if they’re actually worthy of the pick.
There are 3 R1 QBs in this draft so far. 9 teams. The maths don’t look good for getting one of them.
Also, what will inevitably happen post season is Rattler will show out at Senior Bowl and pro days and all that. And scouts will go back and review his 2023 tape. And that’ll be that.
Don’t see it every year, but you do see it — guys who aren’t really on the radar come end of season go early on Day 1.
I think he’s a round one talent.
I also think groupthink is strong. Right now he’s projected 4th round on draft data base or similar. Too low? Probably.
Why I’m fascinated by Rattler is he’s not a player that’s “not on the radar.” I’m unsure how anyone in football world can’t know who he is. Top high school recruit. Big program. A Netflix program.
It’s a very unique situation. A guy like Howard or Allen previously would be under the radar types. Even Mahomes would have peaked some nerdish interest when he threw over 700 yards in a game.
Not “not on the radar”. Rather he’s been written off by most
And he ain’t write back! *rim shot*
Thankyew. Thankyew vurry much
Nicely done!!
Hey Rob, I feel it’s overdue to give you nice and big thank you, for all the high quality content your produce!
Always adds so much value for me, even in times where the actual and owner / QB situation are as uninspiring as possible.
Other than that, I’m not planning to always tell you when your articles are posted on Reddit, because most of them are at some point.
But basically the top comment is how good you write on a technical level and the second and third most upvoted comments are telling people that your pieces are a “mandatory read” and that Pete fans should read this and accept that we’re basically as middling as it gets.
*you always produce
Thanks CL
Usually I get hammered on Reddit so that’s nice to know
It’s the pendulum effect.
Seahawks squeak by an inferior opponent: Rob’s concerns unfounded, he’s negative, we won so who cares
Seahawks hammered by a superior opponent (multiple times): Rob is a truth-teller who has his finger on the pulse of the team
I’m seeing it in a few places. Agreement from all out the outlets. And comments about how weird it is that everyone is agreeing….
When Rob, Mookie, Nemhauser, and Arthur all are on the same page, the seven seals break open and it is the end of the world…..
It’s in the general base too.
Thursday there was probably a 60/40 split of Seahawks/Niners fans in the crowd. Even up in the cheap seats. Usually the Silicon Valley money comes up and takes some of the lower bowl, but this was unlike anything I’ve seen.
And the comments from those in the crowd about Geno, Adams, Diggs, etc were fascinating.
The worm is turning. Quickly.
It isn’t ideal, for for those of us who knew it was needed, it is refreshing and a little validating.
I told my boss, it wasn’t a Rams home game. It’s Seattle. The opposing team shouldn’t be that well attended (especially the 9ers). I get people sold their tickets to whoever would buy them. But that many people were out on going.
That game was the turning point, definitely. I wonder how much of it was also losing that badly to the 49ers compared to anyone else.
Just rechecked the thread
Normal service on Seahawks Reddit has resumed
The typical posts you’d expect whenever anything from SDB is posted on there
Same old, same old
Let me know if Corbin Smith jumps, then the knives will really be out
He’s Vader. Him, Dugar (Moff Gideon), and Matty (….Jar Jar?) can’t turn on the emperor until Seattle finds our Luke Skywalker to help bring balance.
I’ll pile on. This article was excellent. As the others have been, and the contributions of Cha, Robbie , and now I’ve forgot your other video contributor. Well done guys.
Not sure if he has the authority to actually make this offer, but a buddy of mine – Vikings fan – said that they’d trade Kevin O’Connell & Josh Doubs to us for Pete and Drew Lock.
Since we’re going Draft Day with it, I told him we want their 1st and 2nd too because our GM wants to trade all our picks this year for Bo Callahan, I mean Caleb Williams.
On a more serious note, it was interesting to hear him blast KOC for the last 2 losses. Unimaginative, play not-to-lose, no clue how to use the personnel that they’ve got, etc.
If nothing else, I found it oddly cathartic to hear that there are other fan bases banging their heads against the wall. It illustrates how infuriating this middle-ground can be.
I wonder if your friend is new to football.
They are on their, what, 4th quarterback? Who came in mid-season. I literally listened to Chase Daniel talk about Dobbs 20 minutes ago and he mentioned that with such little time there, he is doing about all that he can. They can’t do everything. It isn’t a simple offense. Of course it is simplified. They are also trying to get through getting the best wide receiver in the game back. A true game-changing player.
They are in a situation where the offense had to be tweaked.
He’s not new, but he’s probably more of a casual fan than folks like us. I did go over to dailynorseman.com too and that’s pretty much the pulse. * I haven’t watched Minnesota all year (disclaimer).
From there: Dobbs ‘only’ threw 4 picks, but should have had 2-3 others. Other gripes were centered around how they’ve handled the 4Q of the last two games. Playing to lose was a common theme.
My friend’s thought was that they looked better when Doubs was just free-lancing and running the ball. Now with time in the system, they are opening up more of the playbook and it’s clear that he isn’t a very good pocket passer. As such, he can’t be a long term QB and KOC should have known better than this game plan OR a playground offense is better than what he can come up with.
Again, I haven’t watched the Vikes, so it was more a commentary on how fans from top tier or bottom-dwelling teams are both content. Yet we middle of the road teams that feel mired in mediocrity are beside ourselves.
Biggest question is, who’s actually running the show? Who has the ability to fire Carroll/JS? Who would be hiring a new Coach/GM? Jody Allen and/or Chuck Arnold? Hard to see where this franchise is going.
CHI receives:
– SEA 2024 1st round
– SEA 2025 1st round
– SEA 2025 3rd round
– DK Metcalf
SEA receives:
– CAR 2024 1st round (1st overall)
– CHI 2024 3rd round
Which team says no? If you really believe that Williams really is a “generational QB,” you owe it to your convictions to move up. You’d obviously be mortgaging your short term future in draft capital but a Top 10 QB for the next 15 years is worth more than a Pro-Bowl safety, and you already blew your load on that error. Dead money hit be damned, you also move your “non-#1” #1 WR, allowing future monies available for more pressing holes on the team.
NOT saying I’m particularly FOR this but if it’s the cost of dereliction of duty of not planning for a future at QB, so be it.
Chicago needs a qb at least that’s what everyone says.
I’m not outright against this.
I’m a little concerned about a rookie qb, aging Lockett, so far yep he’s a WR JSN, Jake “18 catches,” Bobo, and Will dissly. With no clear way to find a difference maker unless JSN really is that.
Chase Daniel and Trey Wingo both were almost adamant that you stick with Fields. If they draft Harrison, they most likely have a top 6 wide receiver group.
But if they get a new coach, he would almost have to draft his own guy. Eberflus already inherited the kid.
Personally, I’m out on him if I’m running the team. But I also don’t make this trade. I shoot for anywhere from 5 back, target Rattler, then use two of our 3rds to replace Metcalf with Legette, or grab Sweat out of Texas. Or Van Pran. Don’t have to jump as far (and I personally think you are getting a better quarterback for Seattle).
Oh to have that 2nd rounder….
Legette is sitting around 3-4 reciever off the board. Van pran….I think in tge rare case of a first round center he might be it.
There are more guys this year already that I am banging the table for compared to last year. And definitely from 2021 as well.
This draft is definitely shaping up with some pieces I want on this team.
If you think it’s a good deal for Seattle, there’s a strong possibility the other side would also see it as a good deal for Seattle. Give me a trade that you’d TRULY be uncomfortable making and you’ll probably start approaching a realistic scenario.
Ideally I would prefer to keep DK and not make the same mistake as the Panthers.
I think Kenneth walker and Tariq Woolen could be really useful bargaining chips in a trade (providing we don’t keep benching woolen). But love the idea of trading up to no 1 overall.
I think Walker and Woolen are both too valuable compared to DK. DK needs volume and hasn’t progressed. Paid too much for no more than what we can do with him.
More value as a trade piece too.
Trading DK (like Dre) is cost prohibitive.
Chicago asking for players would probably start with Cross
Chicago might be trying to unload Justin Fields to us. I’m not sure how I feel about that.
Chicago hit a homerun on the Carolina trade- this would just be letting it ride, playing with house money
I think it’ll take more than this though to move up to #1, but perhaps not if we tank into a lower pick than where we sit today
The past few years we’ve talked about the impression that PC is exhausted and no longer “All In”. This off-season felt different. There was an intentional effort made to bring back the “whole gang” and to show off Carroll as excited about this “new era”. I wonder these next few weeks, as things go from bad to worse, if this will be a renewed conversation. I think we are somewhat hostage to Carroll (or Allen) deciding it’s time to call it quits. Does he really want to coach for another 5 years??? Especially if his new reputation becomes something like the Seahawks version of Jeff Fisher??? I think this could be the end. Nothing is worse than failing to meet high expectations.
I would love to see Eric Bieniemy hired as new HC.
I would love to trade the farm for Caleb Williams.
Thank you for the in depth analysis, it is very good and I agree with a lot of what you say.
One topic I don’t understand is your bias against Bo Nix, the Oregon QB. He is considered by some to be the best QB in the nation and a Heisman favorite along with Daniels at LSU. He has shown repeatedly his excellent skills at reading defenses at the line of scrimmage and making adjustments, scrambling and running for yards and TD’s, throwing at near 80% accuracy which is exceptional, and showing he is a team leader. Yet you downplay his accomplishments saying his success is the product of the offensive schemes Oregon uses that makes any average QB look good. If that were possible, why doesn’t every school copy that? The beat down he gave the Beavers last week is just one example where he completed difficult passing plays while scrambling. He is not a pocket passer that stands still and simply throws easy 5 yard completions. You also mention his struggles at Auburn, when he was a young 18 year old kid with a lot of pressure on his shoulders to live up to unrealistic expectations. You point to that and say “but which Bo Nix would you be getting? “. I am surprised that is a question. You are comparing an 18 year old kid that was thrown into a new situation and environment at Auburn with him now at 23 years old and 6 years as a college QB? You would be getting the QB that he is now. If anything, his hard journey of overcoming his trials and turning it into a success story should be proof that he has the physical and mental ability to succeed wherever he goes. He should be applauded for his accomplishments instead of criticized for what happened years ago. I hope your analysis is not swayed knowing your audience are mostly UW and WSU fans, and you are supposed to criticize the Ducks because they are arch rivals. I hope you can show some objectivity when you release your QB ratings soon. Any NFL team would be happy to have Nix on their team.
Here is another list of QB ratings:
https://collegefootballnetwork.com/top-college-football-quarterback-rankings-2023/
Bo? That you?
Ha ha, yes it does sound that way, but no. I just don’t understand why the ho hum attitude after all he has accomplished. His stats show more than what a simple offensive scheme can produce. It still takes a lot of athletic ability and improv skills to make plays and be the QB of one of the best offenses in the country.
Aaron Rogers who some think as the Gold standard, had 24 TD and 8 int, for 2566 yards in his final Jr season. But Nix with 29 TD, 2 int, for 3135 yards is nothing. Don’t get it.
I don’t disagree with a ton of this until you wrapped it up.
The seahawks themselves don’t draft huskies and Rob has Penix at around 3rd round with question marks.
But here’s the problem. Even if Rob was a huge huskies honk that’s his prerogative.
You can’t really ask for objectivity when I’d argue a lot of this blog isn’t huskies fans. As for WSU….not sure Rob’s ever mentioned a draftable coug beyond Lucas who was a great addition.
My view on Nix goes way beyond just what happened at Auburn. I’ve watched 10+ games. I’m not a Husky or Coug. So… 🤷♂️
Bo is also known as the checkdown king/merchant, where most of his throws are within 5 yards of the LOS or behind it.
And if he makes 9.4 yards per attempt is that bad? Coaches like not throwing interceptions, and he still is able to move the ball downfield.
Jayden Daniels probably wins the Heisman. Me personally I don’t think any qb has had a big moment so the tie goes to the player with big stats.
That said I’m going to stick up for Nix here.
Cha is a husky fan and that’s a pretty great info graphic he presents. That said Nix has more good wins than Daniels this year with a chance to have even more on Friday and potentially get into the CFP.
For me it’s clearly Daniels over Nix
The Oregon system is great, LSU’s system is Daniels making plays
See below good sir. I’m seeing a lot of Daniels in our range to strike round one and I’d be pretty happy with it.
Nix would probably fail in Seattle. Mid oline. No yac plays. No WR’s that are suddenly going to turn into that.
Daniels in Seattle could at least extend and provide pressure on the ground.
I’m coming around on Daniels for us.
Either way, I think that they both need good coaching (surprise surprise, that that would help a young qb…)
I think they both will have some headaches adjusting, but Daniels I feel can do more off script, a la Russ, to compensate.
Some people will be angry with my Nix comp in the horizontal board piece
I’m guessing not Matt Stafford then?
9.4 Y/A might be inflated by YAC though. Can’t expect to move the chains in the NFL throwing nothing but bubble screens and quick slants. You would have to look at his ADOT and passing charts to get the big picture. I don’t have PFF so I can’t say either way, just pointing out that Y/A is not a good metric for judging where he is throwing the ball. Colt McCoy had 8.9 Y/A his junior year and he could barely throw it 10 yards.
I don’t know how reputable this site is: https://www.cfb-graphs.com/qb_table
If you sort by EPA you can compare Daniels, Nix, Penix Jr pretty easily, as they are 1, 2, 3
They have for aDOT through week 10:
Penix Jr: 10.389
Daniels: 9.055
Williams: 7.853
Sanders: 6.662
Rattler 6.345
Nix at 6.242
My non-scientific sampling of commenters here has a lot of people who are international, and have allegiances that run to Midwest, South and East coast schools.
Rob gets asked about PAC-12/MWAC players at a good clip though. To the point that I get a chuckle when someone pops on to ask about Ward or player X, who have been discussed prior, sometimes at length.
He lost all the UW people when his post-Apple Cup post called Penix a mid-round prospect…and just FYI – most of the UW/WSU commenters are big on asking about all PAC-12 teams standout players, Nix included.
And I’ll bet that Rob has Nix higher than I would have him when the horizontal board comes out.
https://twitter.com/PGuy_77/status/1727836771738673332
Woooooooow.
But after 10 seconds, not surprising.
Pete’s Super Bowl winning formula offensively is to pair a bell cow RB with an improvisational dual threat QB who can stretch the field with his arm or legs
That system doesn’t translate to the NFL. It is based on being faster and playing faster. The defenses are too fast to do that at the next level.
Nothing he does translates. He doesn’t make adjustments and he doesn’t have to throw the ball far. Hence the high percentage. The Heisman also doesn’t mean anything. Look at all of the past winners. He also doesn’t get pressured AT ALL. So guess what? It is all easier for him.
You have to know what you are talking about and have to be able to watch tape and understand it. You are regurgitating things that you found online, and basically admitted it. Being a good college quarterback doesn’t make you a good NFL quarterback.
Another point: Rob is pretty good at this. He called Stroud and Richardson being such high picks, and called Stroud’s skill set (which is now translating already). He was also right about the quarterbacks in the 2022 draft. People can have issues with him, but I guarantee once his big board comes out, many, many people are waiting for it.
Minor quibble, Rob had a wait and watch attitude on Stroud until the last few games of the season. But he eventually came around.
That’s not ‘eventually coming around’
It’s called not making your mind up a third of the way through a season and being adaptable
How is it a quibble that I didn’t immediately announce Stroud as fantastic on first viewing and ‘only’ had him as the clear QB1 by the end of the college season?
When, I should add, virtually every single draft media analyst had Young as QB1 (he was my QB4).
Agree: Heisman doesn’t mean anything (Should be Daniels anyway)
Agree: Being a good college QB doesn’t make you a good NFL QB
Agree: Rob is pretty good at this
Kinda: He doesn’t face the kind of pressure most QB’s do
Disagree: NOTHING he does translates
Disagree: He doesn’t make adjustments
I am being too harsh. He was a top prospect for a reason.
Right now he’s doing what is asked of him and doing it well.
As a Duck fan, I don’t think he’s been unfair. I tend to agree with a lot of what you’re saying and think as far as command of an offense goes, he’s one of the best in the NCAA.
I think his character and love of the game are going to appeal to a lot of NFL teams. He can make a lot of pro throws, but I wouldn’t say he’s got a ‘big’ arm. He is mobile enough when he needs to be.
I also have to admit that I’m not much of a QB scout and think that raw numbers don’t always tell the tale. Herbert didn’t have great or even good numbers at UO (thanks Mario) and I was worried that he’d be a bust. He showed very little progression to my eyes from freshman to senior. Same with Josh Allen. Oregon played them early in his senior year and I thought he looked like trash.
Systems can make for tough evaluations and Rob consistently mentions this in the articles. Jake Haener looked like he could be a really good prospect when running DeBoer’s offense. After he left, Haener went from first round talk to afterthought. Penix wasn’t much before getting in that system either. Big arm, but he went from injury prone QB that never sniffed 2000 yards at Indiana to 4,000 yard/year amazing QB under DeBoer.
That stuff has to factor in. Sure there are posters that have said – trash, bust, wouldn’t touch Bo… It hasn’t been Rob though, to my knowledge. He’s raised legit concerns that NFL teams are going to have to consider. Same went for Hendon Hooker and will have to for Penix.
If Pete stays, I think he would consider Nix. He’s all about football, never puts himself above the team, makes good decisions, commands the offense, is loved by his teammates and has a good enough arm/mobility. I don’t think he’ll be an option in round 1 though. He doesn’t have the upside. John on the other hand may not like him at all. Doesn’t mean he’s not a solid prospect. Maybe he could be a Brock Purdy in the right system.
Like I said, I’m no great QB evaluator. I lean on Rob for that and I can’t imagine him having any agenda against UO.
There are a number of Duck prospects I’m eager to see on the big board. Franklin, Dorlus, JPJ, Bucky, Khyree Jackson, Burch… Same with Penix, Odunze, Trice, Polk, McMillan, Fautanu, Zion.
Remember, Rob doesn’t get anything from ‘clicks’ so he really has no reason to be biased or click-baity. What he puts out there is a reflection of his process and evaluation and in turn his reputation as a draft expert. He’s not messing with that for appease one fan base or another.
9.5-pt underdogs against Dallas. Even Vegas sees this team as a complete pretender.
DAK was just announced as the best QB by Barnwell…I like our chances.
He’ll be the best QB in this game. Dallas wins with ease.
If my brother is ready to move on from Pete, then I would think most fans are. I’ve been on the fire Pete train since 2019. Still go Seahawks, nothing I’d rather see than them beat Dallas wearing the throwbacks!!!
Paul Finebaum says that the CPS without an SEC team will happen, “Over my dead body.”
https://www.espn.com/college-football/
Deal.
I’m in too. What a shill
https://youtu.be/gj1UBVl0zRo?si=YZy4YCWkQvhbIv8-
Pretty accurate description of where we’re at. Makes a lot of similar points to you Rob from an outsiders perspective.
We are definitely getting caught by some teams that we should be clear of.
Agree on the need for a quarterback. Not feeling the head coaching change. A new head coach could provide results but equally and easily be a disaster (see Jim Mora).
Pete builds culture which gives you a base to get to 8-9 wins. He needs a quarterback to get the team above average. Just look at his history in Seattle, tried a handful of quarterbacks and all got them to around 8 wins. It wasn’t until Russell that his Seahawks teams surpassed that.
All in on finding a QB of the future. Heck, I was all in on that last year!
You can’t avoid making difficult decisions through fear of worst case scenarios.
Besides, plenty of people didn’t want to move on from Holmgren and said the exact same things. Then Mora happened. And four years after Mora, they won a Super Bowl.
So they moved on from a beloved coach, made a wrong decision, and still reached the pinnacle.
Culture has moved towards over the top celebrations for making a 5ackle after a gain of 9 on 3rd and 8 with 3 m8n left and down by 6.
Culture should, and used to, include accountability and a tether to reality.
“Culture” is only legitimized when the team is winning.
Culture is a meaningless statement that can be interpreted as one wishes to view it.
I’m not saying that different coaches don’t try to establish different environments within the teams they run… but we tend to laud “culture” when the team is successful, and damn it when not.
Can anyone rank the “cultures” that tend to be more successful than the one’s that aren’t?
It is a nebulous concept that is a symptom of winning/losing, not necessarily a cause for either.
Been thinking about Pete more this afternoon, and trying to wrap my mind around what a head coach should do. I’ve never played organized football, so this is all layman thinking, and probably wrong in areas.
1. Assemble a team based on his offensive and defensive philosophies.
2. Instill those philosophies in his players, either directly or indirectly through his OC/DC and the position coaches.
3. Organize Offensive and Defensive strategies and coach the team on their execution.
4. Prepare the team for the year, and for each game.
5. Evaluate team talent to determine starters.
6. Manage the game itself:
a) Time management
b) Challenges
c) Adjustments
7. Continually review and adjust schemes and strategies throughout the season.
I’m sure this isn’t exhaustive, but I think it touches on everything except for the PR side of the NFL, as well as communicating with the League about issues (fines/penalties etc).
So grading Pete since 2014, here’s what I give him:
1. A. Love or hate his philosophies, he gets the players he thinks he needs, regardless of the cost.
2. C. Since the demise of the LOB, it seems like most of the players know what’s expected, what they should be doing and how they should be behaving on-field and off-field. There has been a continuous lack of identity.
3. C. Same comments as for #2. Execution seems to be a consistent problem for this team. Players running the wrong routes, hitting the wrong holes, being in the wrong area on defense, etc etc.
4. D. How many times have we seen the Hawks come out flat during the season opener? When we’ll hear “they wanted it more?”
5. C. Pete continually favors older players and is uncomfortable giving rookies prime playing time. He slowly introduces them, and then when they do well, he’ll reply that “we should have brought them in a bit sooner.” This wastes the prime years for players who already have a short shelf-life.
6. F. Pete is one of the worst game managers I’ve seen. Poor clock management, poor challenges, poor adjustments.
7. F. Pete doesn’t change. He doesn’t adjust. He’s publicly regretted when he’s gone away from his dinosaur roots.
I appreciate Pete assembling the 2013 and 2014 teams, and I love that we won a SB with them. But it’s been a long time since Pete was the difference maker, and it’s time for fresh blood.
This sounds strangely familiar to Super Bowl four. During the highlights of Super Bowl four, you can hear Hank Stram comment that Bud Grant wasn’t even adjusting to Kansas City‘s formations. Hank Stram was laughing his ass off. Bud Grant was set in his ways.
And guess who learned from Bud Grant? Pete Carroll. It is no wonder that we pull our hair out as we watch Seattle flounder by doing the same things over and over and expecting change.
The first five years Pete had an advantage of understanding the college players that were coming out at an in depth level that others did not. in addition, he went about building his defense with new player profiles and was able to grab difference makers with high intelligence in all rounds of the draft.
But you see, the NFL adjusted. And within three years, all the new ideas Pete had, along with the advantage of having in-depth knowledge of the college players, was gone.
And the result, after those three years, is what you have now.
Are you saying Pete isn’t drafting the right players? because I think that is spot on
I forgot about Stram and how he reacted to Grant in IV. I believe he also made mention of the simplistic nature of the Vikes offense as well. Great catch man!
Horizontal board article is written.
Will publish it this weekend, so that it doesn’t get lost among all the TNF football stuff against Dallas.
Christmas comes early.
There’s a pill for that…. I hear.
Awesome, looking forward to it.
You da man Rob
What is the case for keeping Carroll beyond 2025?
Can anyone tell me where to go and find a serious take on this? I can’t find anyone even really putting forward a reasoned argument that Carroll should be retained beyond 2024.
It all seems to be stats acrobatics and ‘we are so close’. And even those are giving up because even the most optimistic and team friendly commenters and opiners are coming to the same conclusion.
The argument against Carroll can be briefly stated: he is an aging coach, whose best qualities are his enthusiasm and mystique; however, the game has clearly changed and passed him by.
I’m really not interest in shouting to a mob or preaching to a choir at this point. If there is a person making the good fight for Carroll, link them in the comments. I did a brief search and the pro-team people are currently fiddling on the deck of the titanic.
RMK-LouCityHawk said:
The Rolling Stones are still touring?
Well, except for Charlie Watts.
Saw this cover band that did a real good job of covering the Stones…
Problem is, music as moved on
Saw the Stones in Vancouver around 1990. Steel Wheels tour.
Goo music hasn’t necessarily moved on. And their new album, Hackney Diamonds is excellent!
*Good
’94 in San Diego for me Palatypus
@RMK-LouCityHawk
i don’t think the path to dramatic improvements, that i am
assuming we all want, is best served by the hawks retaining pete.
that being said, i do not think pete will be fired.
i have lost faith in the group, and i believe that although they’d want to win it all, they are seemingly very alright with playing just above .500 ball. the team really hasn’t had ‘it’ for more than 5 years. that is wild.
pete’s not getting fired.
It’s either Pete and so so coordinators or Pete retires. No one worth their salt will join Seattle while Pete is still HC.
Man I can’t wait to publish the horizontal board article. So many thoughts on the players, especially the QB’s, I can’t wait for people to read.
Excited to see it!
Same as everyone stoked it’s finally here!
Can’t wait to start watching other players for the draft talk.
Just read through four CBS mocks, Walter’s mock, as well as his sidekick….
I don’t agree with any of the picks made for Seattle at #22 but saw fairly consistently Jayden Daniels around 16-19. Which is where I suspect Seattle’s native pick ends up being.
My body is READY
The Seahawks are either going to win tonight or next Sunday in San Fran. Though cool, it’ll prolong the agony. Pete will say how we’re “right there” and all that garbage.
We need a QB and fresh start. We’ve seen this clown show before and these guys haven’t been upper echelon for almost a decade now.
I’m not sure how you have any faith whatsoever in winning either of those. The opponent would have to basically throw the game away and we would need to look semi-competent to take advantage. I don’t see either of those happening.
But yeah, it would prolong the agony.
Dallas has a few big losses this year to bad teams, so I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibilities. But, I don’t see it happening. My guess is when the season is over, we are pick 13-15 and we will have finished the year starting Lock due to an injured Geno.
The loss to AZ I’d count as a bad loss to a bad team.
Though they got whooped up on by the niners and a close one against the eagle I think Seattle is in a bind. All three games coming up are for teams still in the hint for the same goal coupled with pretty big statistical match ups against us.
I’ve thought for a few weeks that the Eagles could be the one of the three we could catch off guard.
I hate Dallas and hate giving them respect but there’s home field advantages and the there’s Home Field Advantages. Massively outperforming us. Ceedee Lamb is taking it to teams in the one area where we have no answers. There defensive backfield is performing the way fans imaginations think Seattle’s should perform.
Lucas back apparently so that could be a boost. Lewis has regressed,our center is a pumpkin, and the rotating RG’s is as dumb as a decision as any other this year.
I don’t have any faith that they will beat San Francisco. I think it could be utter destruction.
Dallas? I think it might be closer but still a loss.
They are losing the next 3. And then they’ll beat a couple below average teams to end the year to finish with 8 or 9 wins. Pete stays. Talks about everything they need to fix. They do the opposite. We end in this same spot a year from now.
For the first time, as a longtime Seahawks fan, I think it would be in the best interest of the Seahawks to lose every remaining game. The positive element of that is that it would likely improve their 1-st round pick enabling them to go all in and draft a QBOTF and get the one they want. ANY other positions (especially S, LB, EDGE, CB, TE, & OL should be off limits) is selected it would be a repeat of previous errors by this coaching staff in evaluating team needs and the future direction of this team. A QBOTF is an essential need & I want one of Daniels or Rattler if the miss out on Daniels.
If Carroll is the problem, that means Jody Allen is the problem and the solution.Thing is, we see no evidence that she understands it. It seems to me that she gets her advice from Carroll. She wants to keep the ship safe in the harbor, but that’s not what ships are for.
Rob, how can we get this blog in front of Jody Allen? I wouldn’t be surprised if Pete Carroll screens all her emails.
We could all contribute towards renting a heli to mass drop thousands of fliers with relevant SDB articles and commentary over the VMAC, suggesting a move at QB and HC. Can you imagine? The sky raining criticisms, based on factual data?
Who am I kidding? Jody only shows up at VMAC for draft day… 😮💨
Was following transfer portal news and when I saw Howard listed, I wanted to read what KSU fans thought. Really nice, quick article on their sbnation page (bringonthecats.com).
They showed the clip below of him leaving the field, and the author knew he wasn’t coming back. This is the kind of kid you want your team to get. Don’t tell anyone that it doesn’t matter to him. Howard was on a short list of guys that I wanted Seattle to get. I hope he still goes in the draft because I would be very happy to get him.
https://twitter.com/TheRealMasonV/status/1728633940792008800
Tyler lockett jersey sighting!!
Yeah, Howard with a real OC/qb coach and not playing second fiddle forever had me living in the land of “what if?” With him. Big, strong, does some interesting pro style things already.
I have no idea why I like Utah but him to the Utes as they move to his current conference…..or Michigan State.
He just has an intangible. Grits through. No finesse, just power. Means a lot to him. Saw a bit of it in Riley Leonard too.
I would LOVE Seattle to draft him, but understand it sounds like he really is transferring. I see BIG 10. Utah is a good call. Notre Dame? Wisconsin? I think that midwest-style of football is going to appeal to him.
Definitely Midwest program.
I think Cam Rising (Utah QB) is coming back next year
Looks right. I thought for sure he’d be out if eligibility.
I read that Cam Ward (WSU QB) is going to transfer and has at least ten $1M NIL offers already.
Bradford was our pick in round 4 (108), and is going to make $951K.
KJ Jefferson from Arkansas is.
Kurt Warner’s kid (Temple qb) is, as is Emmitt Smith’s kid (Stanford rb).
I had heard Ward had offers earlier this morning.
That’s the talk
No comp picks awarded for terrible trades, extensions, contract reworkings, and dead money eaten.
ET was our last comp pick. Since then the 49ers have had eight 3rd round comps, three 5th’s, two 6th’s & a 7th
Niners in line to get a 3,3,5,6 next draft.
Last year they got 3,3,3,5.
Year before: 3,3,6,7
Year before: 3,5
As it relates to this article, only Jimmy G was a player from them 8 third rounders. Their other 7 comp picks were from Saleh/Mayhew, Mike McDaniel & Demeco Ryans. No one is hiring Pete’s coordinators away. His coaching tree is non-existent.
As it relates to the players – we overpay to keep them if they’re any good and no one wants them if they leave. In the cases where they do sign elsewhere we cancel the comp pick with our own additions because we’ve (surprise) got holes all over the team.
That’s why it cracks me up a bit when people justify the Leonard Williams (or whoever) trades by saying – “he’ll be worth a 3rd round comp pick”. It’s been years since we’ve even managed to get a comp pick, and we only have 40 guys under contract for next year (a handful of which most of us are hoping they cut)!
This speaks to how well these teams have drafted and developed their talent. Another huge gap when comparing the Seahawks to Niners.
And remember, they bumped Damien Lewis – who had a very impressive rookie season at RG – to LG for this guy.
I remember!
I also remember that Jackson had actually played decently well at LG before. He definitely had experience there. So it made even less sense to shift Lewis over.
https://twitter.com/seniorbowl/status/1729663652599365749
DT Tyler Davis of Clemson going to the Senior Bowl. Had over 30 tackles the last 2 years, but regressed from 5.5 sacks last year to .5 this year. Was looked at as a possible day 2 or early day 3 pick if he came out last year.
https://twitter.com/seniorbowl/status/1729654948462203362
UCLA DE Laiatu Latu also headed to the Senior Bowl. Good size at 6’5″ 265 and led the country in TFLs with 21.5 and had 13 sacks.
Imo well run organizations get comp picks maybe not every year but most years. The fact we haven’t had one in almost a decade just tells how toothless they have become. When Pet and John took over they were ruthless and it had the feel that they were going to be similar to the Patriots in getting rid of players a year too soon instead of 2-3 too late.
ESPN is reporting Williams undecided if he declares for draft.
Straight up I think this will hurt him more than help him if he stays.
Contrary to contrarian reporting I still think he’ll be pick #1 this year.
Not sure how USC is much better next year in the Big 10. Sanders, possibly Leonard, other players can gain on him. Plus there’s the factor of even more time to pick him apart.
I bet he declares
…Big 10 is going to be a rude awakening for these teams coming in. Not saying that they won’t compete, but it is physical.
No matter what, he is going to go to the worst team in football (or top 3 worst, barring a huge trade).
Is the big 10 physical? It has that rep. It’s not earned.
Michigan and Ohio state? Sure. 4 and 5 stars up and down the lines. Then what? Maybe Penn state?
Outside of those 3 teams the rest of the conference is dogshit.. Indiana, northwestern, Illinois, Minnesota, Rutgers, Michigan State, Maryland, Purdue, and Nebraska. These are shitty programs that can’t be considered physically dominant in any capacity. The rest of the conference just gets labeled physical because their offenses are stuck in the Stone Age (hello Iowa and the current iteration of Wisconsin).
This is not me taking a shot at you BK26. It’s just me bitching about media narratives. It’s lazy to say the pac 12 is basketball on grass and the big 10 is physical big boy football. Look at the conference top to bottom. Oregon, Washington, Utah, and OSU were legit on the line of scrimmage this year and would manhandle 70% of the big 10.
Illinois, Minnesota, MSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin yes. They want to run it, want to be physical, have no problems playing a game where it is 20-24. The others are that way more or less. A few are different, like Maryland (partially due to their recruiting ground).
Most of it is based on who they recruit and where. The level of recruits doesn’t matter. Iowa’s defense could hang with most teams over these last few years and there are definitely no 5 stars. Their offense is just the worst in the nation.
It’s a rep that is earned. As someone who watches Big 10 by far more than any other conference, that is the general style. Pac 10 is spread, speed. Also due to recruiting. Speed isn’t in the Midwest. Washington and Utah are more or less the exceptions.
Oregon and Washington would be right up there with Michigan and Ohio State in terms of standings. Utah would (and probably will) fit right in. But they wouldn’t be running roughshod through the Big 10.
No matter what, it is different and it is more physical. It’s a different element. Not saying one conference is better or not, but if you play Wisconsin, Penn State, Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan all in a row, you are going be more sore and beaten up than a normal Pac 10 schedule.
Every conference just has their own takes. Big 12 is spread offenses with high scores Texas and Okla kids all over, SEC is the top talent duking it out, Pac 10 is West Coast.
Well were do the Hawks go from here. For starters: releasing Geno Smith and Jamal Adams after June 1st of next year and save 40mil would be a nice (awesome) start. As far as offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy would be nice . It seems like he is a doing a nice job with Sam Howell. Although I think it is a long shot to bring in Bieniemy. Bieniemy is looking to be a head coach. Would love to have him. Also it seems like the Chiefs offense is not the same since Bieniemy left.
https://www.threads.net/@247sports/post/C0Pn92lOahZ/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==
Rattler declares.
Great news
Good point about recruiting and regional talent. And I agree to an extent that these conferences have been typecast for some reason. Stereotypes often have some truth. I just think the narrative that the big 10 is tough, these days, is just a nice way of saying their offenses are outdated. But maybe I’m just a crusty west coaster harping about east coast bias (how original!. Agree to disagree and go hawks!
Ugh reply fail to my man BK26 above
Spot on with everything as usual, Rob. I’m afraid the franchise is being held hostage because of the ownership situation. I don’t think anything is going to change as far as Pete Carrol’s role. Him hiring an offensive coordinator and going the Saban route and completely relinquishing control would be ideal, but Pete’s ego is something I don’t think is talked about enough. After reading his book, and seeing him speak so passionately on him finding his way and his identity holds him back from giving someone else any control. He is a puppet master and has really only won when he had more talent than anyone else. I just don’t see him giving up control. The only way there is a change at head coach is if he steps away, and I think he is hell bent on chasing greatness until he physically cannot do it anymore. I really believe that. He could be like Joe Paterno and coach until he can barely walk anymore.
I understand all of your points. Hiring an offensive minded coach, drafting a QB and going that route is the obvious best case scenario. This roster is ready for that. The offensive weapons are unreal. Anyone with these WR and these RB and these TE should be able to have a dynamic offense. The offensive line can be fixed, like you said invest in the trenches not safeties and old washed up linebackers. There has been significant investment in young pass rushers, Taylor, Mafe, Hall. Investment this year on the interior in Morris and Young. The secondary has quality players in Spoon, Brown and Woolen. There are pieces on the defense. The investment in the safety position is a case of Carroll chasing after his Thomas and Chancellor, and it has blown up in his face. Those two can be replace and can be fixed in a year or two. The offensive line has good young pieces in Cross, Lucas, Olu and Bradford. Those are pieces you can build around. The roster is not that far off. We have seen teams turn things around with less talent.
I’m just afraid the ownership thing is the true issue, and until that changes it will be same old same. Pete will do his thing, hire coaches that bow to him, and we will be stuck in purgatory until ownership changes. There are cap issues that need to be addressed for sure, but that won’t matter until there is change at the very top of the organization.