I’ve added a few players to my horizontal draft board and tweaked some grades. You can see it in full here, just click on the image to enlarge:
I will do one more update to the board before the draft.
The ‘first round grades’ I’ve given are defined as legit first rounders who would be taken in that range in any draft. The players in the second tier (R1-2) are players I’d be very prepared to take in round one this year, albeit without the legit top-grade.
Some notes:
— I think Josh Downs is the clear WR1 in this draft. I think he’s a top-15 prospect overall. It’s mostly an unimpressive receiver class and that might make it hard for the Seahawks to address their need at WR3. Equally, it wouldn’t surprise me if they took someone like Downs earlier than people expect. My WR2 is Jonathan Mingo. I’ve been banging the drum for him for months and finally it seems like he’s getting some attention. I’ve dropped Quentin Johnston after a disappointing pro-day.
— It’s just so easy to like the top tight ends. They have a great combination of blocking ability and traits matching the top players at the position. We’ve identified the need to run well in the short shuttle and the 10-yard split if you want a physical profile matching the best in the NFL. That’s what this group has. They also complement pass-catching ability with a willingness to do the ugly side of the game in the trenches. It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if the Seahawks take a tight end in the first two rounds. Otherwise you risk missing out. They can afford a ‘luxury’ pick for the future with one of these 10 selections. It could also produce a situation where you can trade Noah Fant after the draft to save $6.5m.
— I’ve moved Darnell Wright up to a legit first round prospect. That means he’d go in round one any year, per my own grading. He’s had a complete off-season. Terrific Senior Bowl. Explosive, athletic testing. Excellent combine drills. His tape is superb — particularly the way he locked-down Will Anderson. The other thing to mention though — remember that Will McDonald had success against him at the Senior Bowl. That wasn’t so much a knock on Wright as it was evidence of McDonald’s quality. If the Seahawks don’t take Anderson with their top pick, McDonald could be firmly on their radar — possibly at #20.
— Are there a lot of ‘edge’ rush names in this draft? Yes. Is it a good ‘edge’ rush class? No, not really.
— I’ve moved Tyree Wilson down to a ‘prepared to take in round one this year’ grade. I love his size, frame and ability to barge his way into the backfield. After re-watching his film though, he’s too inconsistent. He doesn’t win off the edge with speed. There are flashes on tape that get you excited but there’s also a lot of mediocre snaps where he goes through the motions. We don’t have any testing numbers to gauge upside. I think he’s a good prospect who has become a bit overrated as a top-five projection.
— I thought it was really interesting what John Schneider said about the nose tackle position last week. Basically, he suggested if you can play nose in college you can do it in the NFL. He didn’t place a big emphasis on it — making me wonder if they’ll take a random ‘big bodied’ player later in the draft who can soak up the needed snaps without a big investment. It’s why I think Jaquelin Roy might be a key target — he played a lot of snaps at LSU. But they might wait until day three to address this need.
— They’ve typically waited until the middle rounds to draft D-liners. Part of me wonders whether they’ll wait until the late second, third and fourth round to add youth and snaps to their defensive front. Cameron Young, Byron Young and Moro Ojomo are all very good mid-round options. It’s still a great thought to imagine Adetomiwa Adebawore, Calijah Kancey or Keion White disrupting from the front — and Zacch Pickens, Keeanu Benton and Mazi Smith remain good options too. If they did take Will Anderson at #5 — part of me wonders what it’d be like to see a pass rush featuring Anderson and Kancey. The lack of length could be seen as a problem with Kancey though.
— The cornerback class lacks the top-five talent it had a year ago but look how thick it is. I recently watched Corey Trice at Purdue and think he has excellent potential as a mid-round option. His team mate Reece Taylor isn’t bad either. LSU’s Jay Ward looks like a classic safety-to-cornerback convert in Seattle, while Rezjohn Wright screams ‘Seahawks’ with his frame. If they’re inclined to take a corner, the fourth or fifth round is a really good range to get one of ‘their guys’ to coach up. If Devon Witherspoon lasts to #20, part of me does wonder whether they’ll be too tempted by his swagger and intense passion for beating the crap out of opponents.
— People are sleeping on the safety class (I used to be one of them). It’s deep, rich and talented. It’s not full of other-worldly athletes but it is full of kick-arse football players. I can see why Seattle released Ryan Neal from his tender. They can save money drafting one of these guys in the round 3-5 range. It’s also a class full of alpha’s with outstanding character. Just listen to them all speak in interviews. It’s so impressive. JL Skinner, Sydney Brown, Ji’Ayir Brown, Jammie Robinson, DeMarcco Hellams, Jordan Howden, Jerrick Reed — all players I’ve watched interview recently and been wowed with their maturity, confidence and focus. It’d be a shame to come out of this draft not picking from the position. There’s a lot of talent here.
I’m travelling to Dubai with my family today for a week in the sun. I’ll continue to write and will react to anything breaking. If I don’t reply immediately to questions, that’s why — but I will respond.
If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)
https://theathletic.com/4365003/2023/04/03/bears-panthers-nfl-draft-trade-top-pick/
There is a detailed article about how the Bears and Panthers trade materialized. They mention talks with John Schneider. If you’re interested, it’s a very awesome read and should shed some light on the current situation and what could possibly happen leading up to the draft regarding other teams.
Cliff notes:
-Houston wasn’t interested in trading up to #1
-Carolina is only interested in 2 of the 4 QB’s
-Talks never intensified with Schneider even though Fitterer worked for 2 years under John
-Las Vegas inquired about moving up to 1 doing due diligence
And a lot more
For the non subscribers
https://archive.ph/IFVof
Nice article, thank you. Asked to sign off on the trade, Panthers owner Dave Tepper, according to the team’s GM, thought the package to move up from 9 “was a pretty inexpensive move to get up there to get your future quarterback to change the direction of your franchise. Dave’s very good at managing value, showing some restraint yet being aggressive. This is the world he lives in.” One cannot but stan.
Glorious!
Been listening to lots of pods on the draft and the rest of the world has caught up to you loving Darnell Wright.
If Seattle tries to plug the massive gaping holes on the DL with 3,4,5 rd guys I’m going to lose my sh*t. Feel like they have sort of bound themselves to drafting for need there. Not that I really know anything about scouting players.
What’s to know about scouting players?
Seattle outside of Jarran Reed has pretty much whiffed the entire dline with their draft picks.
I have no idea why Seattle loves veterans ( who aren’t good) can’t scout dline, and worst of all can’t coach the positions up.
But if it’s not working and it hasn’t ever worked unless they get lucky with FA it’s well time to try something else out.
Short arms? Maybe. Actually draft a player whose value equals pick #20-37? Maybe.
Poona Ford
Not being facetious.
Is poona ford good? Or is poona ford a team favorite and made better in relation to what else the team has trotted out?
He’s not old or injured….has he resigned anywhere yet?
1-he played out of position in 2022
2-his 2022 cap number was an insane $10m and teams probably not having any of that
3-still has the stink of being on one of the worst DLs in the NFL on him
PC has said they’d like to have Poona back, and he may well fit right back home at NT/DT type.
But the Seahawks hopefully are playing the market correctly and will not overspend on him.
Frank Clark but of course they bungled that too so NM.
Exactly hard to factor a player that was never in their plans.
Frank Clark.
I think that is what they did last year with Boye Mafe and the early returns are good. They got worse on DLine scouting with D Coordinator departures.
Read up on the new scheme, with the switch over new bodies are needed. Focus on value and fit matter.
I assume they are learning from past missteps and we won’t see as many Colliers, or McDowells.
What fans should brace for is a draft where they see Coburn, Tyler Lacy, McDonald/Hall, RezJohn, and Sydney Brown as the defensive additions. And if those match value (see the Big Board) I’ll be pleased, so long as the offensive picks are similarly placed.
@ Peter…”I have no idea why Seattle loves veterans ( who aren’t good) can’t scout dline, and worst of all can’t coach the positions up.”
Very justified observation, considering we did select “he who shall not be named”, i.e. Malik McDowell, as well as LJ Collier. Clearly wasted picks. At the same time we took some decent to very good players in Rasheem Green, QJefferson and Frank Clark. To be fair, this was during a decade where we had low 1st round draft picks (in the mid/high 20’s) and needs on the OLine, etc. For additional explanations see: Tom Cable and Ken Norton Jr.
LOL! Not exactly a litany of game-wreckers here, is it? Point sustained, Peter, point sustained.
Wright still appears in 2nd or 3rd round of the PFF or Pro Football Network Mocks. I try to stay disciplined in those and not take players where I know they won’t be, i.e. Pickens in the 5th. I fear a lot of fans get their info and expectations from those programs though.
Every time I hear Sydney Brown & Ji’Ayir Brown speak I get very excited. Not only are they both good players, they come across so well as people, as locker room presences, and most importantly as competitors. And for both players this has said by their coaches & teammates. It’s an excellent chance on Day 2 to get one (or both, which i’m sure would make a lot of people confused & upset, but good players are good players) and gives us that flexibility going forwards with Diggs and/or Adams.
Could you give a bit of feedback on what separates Trenton Simpson from Dorian Williams from Henry To’oTo’o/Jack Campbell/Owen Pappoe?
‘Hawks are not desperate for an ILB but I thought there were a couple worthy of a Day 2 pick and you have a different view on them. (Because Wagner isn’t a long term solution, we don’t know how good Brooks will be on return, and Bush is unknown and has yet to match his previous draft reputation – so we have starters this year, but we may well need two or three new ones for ’24)
Simpson at least has evidence of being attack minded with his play (when scheme permits) and is a better athlete than I think he’s shown in the testing. Williams is a rough diamond. Pappoe has awful tape. The other two are very average IMO
Just enjoy the break with family no need to react on new. Thank you for everything.
Exactly Rob, Have a great time!
Seconded. Enjoy your time there.
I don’t know if you have visited Dunai before, but my wife and I were there for a few days a number of years back and it was one of the best vacations we have ever had. Dubai is a GREAT vacation destination. When we visited there we stayed at an “English” hotel chain across the freeway from the airport, I think it was called Regency or something like that(?) Bottom line is they had a free 24-hr. shuttle every 30 minutes (precisely) to and from the airport and the drop-off, pick-up location was very near the Monorail offices and entrance where you could buy a day pass for like $3.00/$4.00 that allowed unlimited transportation on both the monorails and the Citys bus systems. We didn’t need a rental car and very much enjoyed their wonderful, and spotlessly clean monorail on both of the 2 directions and the close to 80-90+ or so stops that they serve.
We still can’t forget the number of skyscraper buildings at every stop. Meeting and talking with the locals that were very friendly and informative was a highlight, we were even invited to dinner more than once by very friendly office workers that maybe wanted to practice their English. This was a great and cheap way of seeing almost all of the many great sites of Dubai. After being there once, my wife and I have always wanted to return. Are you planning on seeing the tallest building in the World and doing a Tom Cruise at the top? You won’t believe those super fantastic views and don’t miss the musical fountain display at the bottom. I am sure you and your family will all greatly enjoy your vacation in Dubai.
It seems everyone is tying Anderson hard to Arizona. Has there been heavy reporting that the Cards are going that direction? Or are we just assuming because Watt retired they are going DE.
They have a lot of holes to fill and if they are open to anyone beside Anderson for DE it opens up a lot of trade possibilities for them.
The mock I posted here a few days ago waiting to take interior Dline until mid rounds is because Seattle typically doesn’t draft space eaters high. Glad that you touched on it in the article.
have fun in Dubai with your family Rob.
Anderson to Arizona is probably a reflection of the drop-off from him to the next level of prospects. Is Arizona going to pass on him for quantity over quality? That’s something a GM has to weigh.
Does there need to be heavy reporting? Or is it enough that logic suggests they’re targeting Anderson, and there’s no reporting to suggest anything different?
There are only like 7 legit R1 prospects in the entire draft. Rob’s board has 9, but Carter is a nullity and I think the QB group gets a nudge from being the most important position.
There are a dozen or so fringe R1s, but if you’re a first year GM, are you really going to spent a top 3 pick — your first on behalf of your new franchise — on a fringe R1er? Highly, highly doubtful, to the point where I feel confident saying that won’t happen.
So who does that leave you if you’re Arizona? One of the 4 QBs? I mean, they could, if they’re partial to roster and salary cap hell for the next 3 or 4 years. Talk about a GM career-ending move.
Again, who does that leave? Tyree Wilson? The guy who doesn’t have the college tape to not test pre draft?
It leaves Anderson.
Or it leaves trading down for more draft picks.
This is a great point for AZ perspective.
Ryan Poles leaked out 8 players with first round grades, indicating they didn’t grade some QBs that highly.
The Seahawks traditionally have only 20 or so 1st round grades.
Assume Arizona has Bijan, Mayer, Wright, Anderson, Carter*, as first round non QBs. Every drop down jeopardizes their ability to grab a difference maker. A trade down to 11 could see some order like this go:
5 Anderson
6 Bijan
7 Wright
8 Mayer (biggest wild card slot in my book)
9 Carter (Bears feel right, doing a ton of due diligence).
10 Witherspoon (Eagles probably trade down, but are another wild card)
Cards could go Gonzalez, Tyree Wilson…the point is they now have a pick (11) with not much value compared to pick 20, or maybe even pick 37. For a team that needs talent (not just guys) everywhere a big trade back doesn’t make sense.
BJ Robinson might actually be the single best pick Arizona could make to improve their team. I think he improves their offense more than Anderson does their D.
If they hold out for 20 from Seattle, even if they give something back to get it, they could be in position to get both.
Bijan instantly makes AZ offense better.
Anderson is more valuable, but might not be the best scheme fit.
Now if Tennessee dangles Simmons, that is a whole other conversation, and I’d assume the GM there is just planning on being fired.
If they aren’t all in on Anderson drop back to 6 with Detroit and also get the Lions 48 and 81 picks.
Detroit can grab Richardson and redshirt behind Goff, then with their 18th grab macdonald to pair with Hutchinson.
Arizona in rebuild gets Bijan and a extra 2nd and 3rd.
You’re Arizona, Stroud off the board, one of Young or Richardson off the board. Indy, Vegas and Tennessee are on the phone.
You swap picks with Indy and still have two teams to trade with. They could easily add two second rounders in the process, still pick at 7 or 11.
They take Van Ness, who is a prototype Arinzona DE pick, and take control of the draft in round 2.
Only one team is capable of drafting Tyree Wilson in the Top5. He gives me Collier-Brooks chills.
If Van Ness goes in the top 10, I’ll be stunned
He didn’t even start at Iowa
Not sure where the hype is coming from
Let’s target the guy who did start at Iowa. When does he become draft eligible.
IMO, he is mid R2. But that doesn’t change the idea that the Cards might not be as high on Anderson as some believe.
Pauline has him graded 3.97, 0.01 behind Will Levis.
And that’s fine — I know a lot of people rate him
But I also know Tony was asked about him at the end of the college season and didn’t even have any notes on him, he couldn’t answer the question! Largely, I imagine, because he wasn’t starting.
Has there ever been a non-starting top-10 pick before?
His tape, for what it’s worth, isn’t all that either. He has splashes. He’s an upside type only.
Why Levis over Richardson? Is the theory that Levis has a similar arm but a higher floor?
Levis should have a higher floor. He’s played in 2 pro-style offenses and is a few years older than Richardson. He should be ready to start sooner than Richardson will be. With only Gardner Minshew in Indy, it makes sense to take Levis.
Nice and succinctly put.
Levis is also an elite athlete, definitely a running threat. His arm is the stranger arm, he displays better accuracy. The quibbles with him are more quick fixes (footwork).
I rank Levis as QB1 and wouldn’t be shocked if CAR took him #1 overall.
As to the question of these four were going out to eat who would drive? My guess is Stroud, Levis, Young and Richardson, in that order.
Not at all clear to me that Levis’s arm is stronger than Richardson’s. Largely irrelevant though, since they both have cannons..
“Levis should have a higher floor (than Richardson).” –Mel
Because of Will Levis’s greater experience, maturity, and preparedness to start sooner? I don’t see how any of those things should indicate a higher floor—lower ceiling, maybe.
Assuming both players are equally committed as professionals and land in equally supportive team environments, Richardson’s superior talent most likely gives him a higher ceiling AND floor. Yes, Richardson has fewer data points on his resume than Levis, and thus the greater challenge of projecting him results in a less precise forecast, but this information deficit says nothing of how the two players’ projections compare. High-upside busts generally lack the fluidity and instinct necessary to excel, but I don’t see the slightest indication of either in Richardson, not even with his trainwreck plays. He lacks the experience, is what I see.
If I were an owner and I drafted Richardson, I’d hand him over to the coaching staff and say, “Figure it out—or it’s your asses. You’ve got three years.”
I wouldn’t read much into that
I have those four bunched together very closely
Gotcha.
I’d love to have either one…
Another OG that I lump in with the 3rd rounders is Sidy Sow, although he may be available later. He is a bigger guard with good combine testing. Especially if we end up with JMS at center.
I’d also love to come away with Kraft at TE. He looks like he has the bulk to block well, and athleticism to be a threat in the passing.
My hope: 5) QB; 25) Ade Ade; 37) JMS; 52) Mazi; 83) Kraft; 89) Mingo or Edge; 123) Jammie Robinson; 151) Dorian Williams; 154) Sidy Sow/Bradford/Broeker; 198) DT; 237) RB.
The big boards are my favorite thing that Rob does, and the amount of work he must put into them shows through.
These are so much more realistic and indicative of the way teams operate, as opposed to a linear ‘top 100’.
Great content, every time I share these with my non-Seahawk friends they turn action green with envy.
Definitely second this! Thanks Rob, and well put LouCityHawk
Sorry for the noob question, but what do the names in red mean?
Injury or character flag
For the 6 teams in the last three Super Bowls the average points given up per game is just under 22. This year Seattle gave up 23.6.
Conversely on offense the last 6 teams averaged almost 30 points per game. Seattle averaged 23.9 last year.
This is why my mock prioritized offense a couple days ago.
What’s it going to take to get this offense closer to 30ppg?
If we get to 30ppg how much less is the defense on the field and what does that do to their ppg?
If we get to 30ppg what does that say about geno or his trade value.
QB at 5 is fine but after that you go heavy offense until space eaters in 4-7.
The Bulldog Burger and tartar sauce combo must be keeping you on the right track
Offense is a huge priority, I’m constantly talking up and pining for weapons like Mayer, Downs, a high end RB2.
Don’t get caught up in the group think from the vocal posters that would take Carter, Mazi, Ika, Campbell, in that order…. 4 players I doubt the Hawks take.
Now here is the rub, the Seahawks cannot ignore value, there are examples of drafts where their obvious target went off the board and they took WR3, even though the drop off was steep. Last year was a great draft because they took value with every position, no real reaches, no chasing for need.
If McDonald is there at 20, his value might demand taking him (it would at 37 for sure), Hall/Kancey/SydneyBrown these are high impact players that don’t have Day 3 corollaries. I’d put Pickens in that group but reasonable minds differ.
If it isn’t Mayer, don’t grab Washington because your board was set up at 20 for TE. Don’t go Zay because Downs went at pick 19. Stay true to your board and get value.
Mmmmm U-tote-um
Yeah I’m hoping the draft falls offensive without reaching. Even if they go Richardson at 5 it makes sense. While it helps Geno for the reasons above it would help Richardson year 2 because he would have an experience offense around him.
If Anderson ends up 5 I would have no problem trading with Houston for 12 and 33 instead.
Have to look at strength of schedule also though. That will impact both numbers. Our SS was very weak.
“What’s it going to take to get this offense closer to 30ppg?” –bv eburg
This 30 points-per-game pace you’re referencing is by no means some new standard to be emulated. Not to go full-on Captain Obvious here, but point differential per game is what matters, wouldn’t you say? Balanced interplay between offense and defense is the most reliable means of generating a positive point differential over the long run; without this balance, a team has to be borderline historically great on one side of the ball to win a title.
By the way, the highest scoring teams in any year are almost always the ones with the best average starting field position—largely a defensive product. Teams that yield more yards score fewer points because they turn over worse field position on average (after all, the most important component of point expectancy on any given possession is distance from opponent goal).
Rob: Enjoy your time with your family. All the hard work you do is greatly appreciated.
Looks like John Schneider thought about trading up to the number one spot.
Here is the problem. Let’s say the Hawks are forced to move up for the draft. There is no way you can guarantee that the QB you want (Richardson) will still be on the board when the Hawks are on the clock.
In that case you take the next best QB option whether that’s Stroud or Levis.
For the board itself
Love seeing RezJohn Wright rise, very hopeful he lasts until the 5th round as he does indeed scream Seahawks.
The scarcity of true DLine talent really gets illustrated when viewed this way. I’ve been banging the Pickens drum almost too loudly, but he may indeed be a first rounder this year. Coburn seems to have our name written on him for a late round NT.
EDGE really illustrates what the Seahawks are probably planning over their first 3-4 picks. QB/Anderson, if QB then McDonald, if McD gone then pivot to Hall (maybe at 37). If Anderson then QB is off the table.
C checks out with 5 and Mauch clustered together, best select 1 in round 3.
Ekiyor seems like R2 to me, and I’m surprised the Oline obsessed Hawks faction hasn’t discovered him yet.
OT looks about right.
TE scares me, as PCJS seem allergic to a TE prior to round 4. Mayer could be the exception though. Don’t really think he will be there at 20, people wanting immediate impact players should be looking to Mayer. FWIW, if Anderson is P1, I suspect the Seahawks may trade up for Mayer if he gets close enough.
WR group is the most disappointing, QJ has all the look of being special. Having watched more of Downs, only his size will keep him from being grabbed top 10. Hawks fans seem obsessed with JSN, I don’t even have him on my board, will be shocked if they grab him. Mingo, Zay, QJ in R2 are fine. The two I’m surprised that haven’t risen are Charlie Jones and Tyler Scott.
I’m more bullish on RB, I see Gibbs as almost as good as Bijan. Chase Brown and Tank also seem a bit low, I’ll need to look at their testing numbers again.
Great work on the back half of the QB list, I will swear off booze for a month (June, not May) if the Seahawks take a QB after R1, but while I see some as fits DTR/Bennett/Hall, I can’t really see them grabbing Duggan or McKee
Love the big board, and I’d encourage everyone to look at the higher ranked players you aren’t familiar with. It is ok to have your own biases as long as they are informed ones.
I saw a report that Carter is visiting the bears for a second time today and he is declining to take any top 30 visits with teams outside the top 10, this is mind blowing to me that he is that sure he’s going top 10 but then again he does have Drew Rosenhaus who is obviously very connected and must be sure he will go top 10
Interesting thanks for the info
Either this is alarmingly stupid, or it just sounds like something to say to the press.
You do realize that teams outside the top 10 can still trade into the top 10, right?
I’d do the same thing if I was his agent.
Show no desperation, get Carter on the treadmill, have him prepped for those top 30 visits. Prep him specifically for each visit/interview. Send an advance binder that includes counter-intelligence to the alleged ‘Red Flags’, painting them all green.
I’d probably even throw my weight around with the Texans and Cards if I was juiced enough to make them do too 30 visits and say encouraging things in the press.
All you need is one coach/gm combo to believe, then you’ve got your top ten pick and worry about his contract year 5 years from now (and weep that Snyder won’t be around to hand out a Haynesworth deal)
Not getting requests to visit a team is one thing. But declining a request to visit is entirely something different.
If the latter is the case, it strongly suggests to me Rosenhaus doesn’t want Jalen interviewing. It has nothing to do with cockiness. It seems like a survival tactic.
That could be too. If a team is wanting to bring him in, that shows interest though and thumbing your nose at them seems like it could take you right off their board.
I can’t remember a more polarizing player than Carter in the draft process.
How much can you prep him for each interview and interaction…
Especially if he can’t understand or remember, or or he won’t pay attention. At least a visit would show you who would be getting if you ask the right questions. Maybe that’s what they are afraid of.
Sounds like it’s Rosenhaus making that call.
https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/agent-jalen-carter-visit-teams-top-10-pick/story?id=98322378
Agree with Cha though. This approach feels beyond dumb. If you assume that 4 QB’s are going and some teams may not have him on their board, he’s limiting his visits to just a couple of teams?
The entitlement is astounding.
But money will cure the entitlement. LOL
This guy is so totally going to be a gigantic bust. I mean he’ll be mentioned with Mandarich tho not quite the Leaf, Russell level.
Might be trying to ‘own’ the situation and turn a negative into a positive by saying, “actually it’s our choice!”
You can’t fire me because I quit!
But it’ll be hilarious when he goes to one of these top ten teams…in the second round
With Carolina/Houston essentially locked in on Stroud/Young.
The Levis/Richardson/Anderson jockeying begins. Colts reporter confirmed interest in Levis, but also team currently prefers Richardson- smokescreen? Perhaps. If you sit at #4 and want Levis, why not feign interest in Richardson to bait someone to trade up to #3 to get him?
Report today the Titans now interested in trading up to #3 for a QB.
I’m not very concerned about any other team trading to #3. Hawks have draft capital to outbid anyone. If price gets too rich for them, they get Anderson. Arizona would have to resign to not even getting their #2 or even #3 preferred defensive talent and there’s a big dropoff from Anderson IMO for a defense starved for talent and leadership.
Hawks still sit very much in the driver seat to outbid anyone and offer #5 for Arizona to get Anderson. Or just sit tight, keep their picks and stock the cupboard.
I really can’t see the Titans trading that much capital to get from 11 to 3. They’re a team on the decline and finished 27th in Weighted DVOA per Football Outsiders in a dreadfully bad division. They’re very much not a QB away from contention. Tannehill and Henry will be gone next year and it’s looking like they’ll need a full on demolition of their roster, though they do have a ton of cap space next year. I just can’t see them committing multiple first round picks to a developmental QB at this stage. That whole story reeks of typical pre-draft rumor mongering.
I tend to agree- then again they could just be smitten by a QB in a QB dependent league.
Gritty-
Just like to say you’ve made two comments about the Titans and I’d like to thank you for how insightful they’ve been. Ie not watched the Titans but did not realize how bad they actually were and that they might be in a rebuild.
Cards trading to Titans pick essentially gifts the Hawks Anderson with a bow around him. Bidwell may hate his fans, but does he hate them enough to hand Seattle a player that terrorizes Kyler Murray twice a year?
Meanwhile do a draft where you play with the Cards and drop back to the Titans spot, even assuming you get a 2024 R1, do you really move your needle on reaching the Super Bowl in 2025? Especially do one where you don’t take advantage of weirdness like Darnell Wright lasting until the mid second round.
Trade or no trade- Hawks are in position to get a quality player that will line up against them for 4-5 years.
So why not get the guy you want, Anderson, and take a pick (37) from Seattle?
TBH if I think about it from the Cards perspective it makes a lot of sense, unless you grade Anderson as not a fit.
I think that’s a fantastic deal for the Cards. My point was that avoiding a trade with a division rival is pointless because the Hawks will get a good player no matter what.
This is the feeling amongst Cards fans, almost unanimously, although eight the way that org scrimps I’m not sure they have people monitoring social media and message boards the way other orgs do.
Bidwell may have a completely different view
They might also be thinking that, however they may not do the trade until draft day, since it’s not certain Houston doesn’t take Anderson themselves. I mean, they probably don’t, but it’s not certain.
The Cards would be crazy to trade prior to draft day, they should be drumming up as much competition as possible.
B/l – Tepper is calling the shots in CAR, so any of the four QBs is possible. Stroud makes the most sense, but we don’t know his mind.
HOU is a wild card, but there have been some leaks they greatly prefer Young, but will go Stroud as plan B, also, could go D (seems less and less likely).
If Stroud were to slip to 3 that might touch off a bidding war, or Young, until you know what asset you have you can’t negotiate fully.
It’s also very hard to hold a bidding war in 10 minutes on the clock
It’s also not certain they wouldn’t take Richardson…
Well, that would set them up with a top 2 pick next year, once again.
They also have two 1st rounders next year, to trade up if need be.
If they don’t feel he’s a fit they could trade down for even more draft capital.
It’s a catch22. Trade down and gift Seattle Anderson, don’t trade down and gift Seattle a franchise quarterback. Which is worse? Arizona shouldn’t really be concerned with anything Seattle does, and should only be thinking about what’s best for their team.
If they’re smart, which would be very rare for that organization, they’ll trade with Seattle even if they don’t get a whole lot. Trading down with Tennessee would be too far to get any of the prime players and even the Raiders at 7 mean a loss of Anderson and possibly Wilson (Detroit needs pass rush).
Their 2nd best move would be to stand pat and pick Anderson. Like you said, that gifts Seattle a possible franchise QB, but as you also mentioned, they need to do what’s best for them. Going below #5 would not be that.
Disclaimer: a trade with Seattle would have to include a promise from John that the Seahawks don’t draft Anderson
I agree, your take just makes sense. But we’ll see if Arizona is actually interested in doing something that makes sense.
Seattle trades 2023 3rd and 2024 1st
Seattle gets QBOF
Arizona gets Will Anderson in 2023 and 2024 extra first round pick to trade up and
get their own QBOF in 2024 after Kyler Murray has another mediocre year.
Would you do that trade?
Nah. Give them one of our seconds this year. We’ve got a lot of draft capitol this year. Might as well use it now.
No way.
I don’t think it’s been talked about much, but Pete’s system made the most of Russ, got Geno to have a pretty good season. Do we really need to be giving up high picks to move up? Does Pete really need a Mahomes or Allen to win a SB? Can we get a game manager who listens and doesn’t throw picks later in the draft and use the picks on real upgrades?
Pete’s system also had the LOB when we went to those two SBs. How confident are we that he can re-create that dominant of a defense again? Geno did have a pretty good season but we also lost all of our games against the NFC South, which wasn’t good last year, finished at 9-8 while having one of the weakest schedules last year, and we got destroyed by the 49ers in all three games against them.
IMO, it’s easier to build a good team around a great QB than to build a great team around an average/game manager type QB if you’re trying to win a SB. That’s why if the Cardinals are willing to trade with us, I’m in favor of moving up and getting a QB that they want.
Nope I wouldn’t.
I’d do #5 & #37; It would be slightly above fair value & they get Anderson.
Other’s may be willing to go higher; but then they don’t get Anderson.
If I’m Schneider I would have already offered #5 & #52 to see if they’d bite.
I don’t like the idea of future picks, especially our 1st.
Detroit also needs better secondary so CB might be their choice at #6, considering they already have Hutchinson. In this scenario, Raiders might be the better team to trade with. Mark Davis is reportedly eyeing Richardson and is known to be a wild card on draft day.
You might be right about CB to Detroit, but they have pick #18 and they might well decide to wait til that pick to tap into a deep area of this class. If you’re Zona, is it worth the risk?
If Richardson is still on the board at #3, half the league will call them.
If Levis is still on the board Indy cannot risk another team stepping in.
So, swap picks with Indy and trade with whoever pays the most. It’s a sellers market.
When they trade with Indy first, Seattle second, they would still have leverage through Anderson.
Will Anderson might not even be the type of player they covet, for the better or worse. Van Ness is available at 7, available at 11.
Why would they want to take Van Ness that early?
Something that I’ve been wondering lately; who’s going to be this years Danielle Hunter? I was really hard on him pre-draft because he looked like a wooden board when he played at LSU, absolute unit but incredibly stiff and upright player. There are a lot of similarly athletic but noticeably un-bendy players in this draft. So who do you all think could be that guy this year? Also it doesn’t have to be due to stiffness. I’m thinking more like, who is just one trait away from being a super star prospect?
For me it’s Darnell Washington.
How somebody (particularly in Seattle) would think he’s worth the pick at 20 is beyond me.
People howled at Will Dissly getting a 3y $24m contract. But that is nearly what Washington is if he doesn’t improve in his route-running or find a Sean Peyton-type offensive genius to find ways to take advantage of his wingspan.
Maybe he’ll be better out of Brock Bowers’ shadow.
But is that something you want to spend #20 on? With a 4y $15m contract?
That’s funny, I’ve thought the same thing too. He also gained 8 lbs between the combine and his pro day, which makes me think that that Georgia entitlement really is something to be wary of.
I don’t think I would use that as a marker. Most of these guys probably try to get into insane shape for the combine – or at least as close as they can get to it – so they let themselves go just a bit afterward. He looks like he is in pretty good shape otherwise. Barring the ones like Jalen Carter, most football players are incredibly driven.
For pick 20 I ask myself on this pick do I feel this a guy after 4 years I would actually want to use the 5th option. Darnell Washington feels like one those guys. Shane Waldron will have no problem getting this guy into his offense.
Rob, in the later rounds of the draft (4-7) are there any running backs in particular you like/we should be looking at? Who fit the Seattle mold?
Any of the ones in that R4 range work for me and some will be available later than I’ve graded
Thanks again Rob. I love the horizontal board. It’s a great reference tool, captures the essence of who’s who. I need to be reminded of one thing. Within each position/draft round cell, are the players listed in order of their grade, top to bottom?
Enjoy Dubai Rob. We appreciate the work you put into this. It’s not even your day job.
Thanks Thomas 👍🏻
I don’t have the time right now to look for stats to back up my thinking, but I have the impression that the Seahawks don’t have a receiver with lots of escapabilty. Sure, DJ has lots of straight line speed and Tyler can take it to the house, too. Maybe Eskridge was supposed to be the guy who could take a 3 yard completion and turn it into 10 yards by making the first defender miss. Anyway, are there receivers in the draft who show they can get YAC on short completions? Any guys whose names I should try to remember?
Eye test only for Yacks
Marvin Mims, Jaylin Hyatt, QJ, Mingo, Tyler Scott….
Those guys come to mind, I’m sure someone has the stats on this
Stats (YAC/R):
https://twitter.com/ShaunMichaels31/status/1616445520855056384/photo/4
Looks like my eyes did pretty well?
Also, JSN, not explosive.
DK, fat fingered “DJ”. Sorry ….
Rob, given how much tape you watch I’m sure you have some good initial opinions on the 2024 draft next year. I’m wondering how good the QB class is looking because I think that could influence how aggressive some teams might be in moving up to get one of the 4 (specifically trading with the Cardinals to move up). If they see a 2024 QB class that looks like the 2022 QB class then maybe this is maybe their last shot for a good rookie QB for awhile.
I have only seen players in passing, or watched the players who were eligible this year (eg Penix Jr). It’s not really any different to this year. Couple of names everyone knows about. And a bunch of mid-range types who didn’t declare for 2023. The difference is we also knew a year ago (before the mainstream) that Levis would also be in the conversation and Richardson was a wildcard.
God I am so jealous. Another week and a half forecasted for rain every stinking day to look forward to here. Oh but hey, the highs are going to go from the 40s to the mid-50s while it rains every day. Woo hoo. 🙁
Enjoy it man. You deserve it.
Thanks Mike 👍🏻
Yep. I’ve got a zillion farm projects that all involve heavy equipment on my fields which are now low key flooded because they can’t absorb more water and as such I’m slowly losing my mind with the rain. Further south in the Willamette Valley I’m basically at two pairs of rain gear a day now as a half day of work means they are pissing wet by noon.
Dubai’s not even high on my list but I’ll take anything at this point.
I feel your pain. I have a farm in the San Juan Islands with an equal number of projects except we’ve had below average rain, but also below average temps. Everything blooming late. Opposite of last year when we were unable to plant until so late we left several field fallow. Oh well, more time for perusing SDB.
Heck yeah san Juan Islands. Love it up there. Can’t imagine it’s easy in the slightest to farm there.
Yes, plenty of time to peruse SDB and watch talking heads make weird points.
Well I’m in the burbs of Vancouver, WA guys so my pain is much more selfish, week after week of never being able to ride my motorcycle. I just bought it last late August and now it just sits in the garage looking sad. None the less, I should step outside my unhappiness with the shit weather and offer my sympathies to the 2 of you seeing as how it is affecting your livelihoods.
Big Mike there’s selfish reasons too😀.
I ride quads and the last thing I want to do is head out in this crap after a week of already being in it!
Great info and appreciate the update. Hope you and your family enjoy Dubai!
Thanks Brett 👍🏻
Surprised to see reports that the top two picks feel like they are locked in, not saying those reports are false or anything but to me if I were the Panthers I could see a world where they could very easily draft Richardson at #1 with Andy Dalton as the bridge given their success with Cam Newton and the superstar potential that Richardson has that Tepper has stated he’s looking for and that I don’t think the other 3 possess to the same degree. In such a scenario with Richardson and lets say Stroud gone in the first 2 picks I would be even more inclined to trade up to 3 because I would be scared at the potential of being left only Young (who I would still select, mind you) as his height/weight concerns me and I’ve had Levis as my #2 QB behind Stroud.
What are everyones % chance of being the #1 pick? mine are below
60% – Stroud
20% – Richardson
15% – Young
5% – Levis
“(The Panthers could) draft Richardson at #1 with Andy Dalton as the bridge.” –Schadyhawk001
Yeah, I’d think any team near the top could draft Richardson with a redshirt in mind, not just teams with ideal bridge quarterbacks already in place, primarily Seattle and Detroit. Long run outlook surely trumps Year One readiness when it comes to QBotF prospects; any potential short run hit to ticket sales could be managed by keeping fans in the loop regarding the larger design—and by providing those fans with a QBotF prospect worthy of their investment.
If Carolina sees Richardson surpassing the others by Year Three or so, they would be fools not to take him. In that contingency, I’d project fans plunking down for Dalton in 2023 just fine, so as not to miss out on Richardson in 2024 and beyond.
Have we ever seen a player with a worse offseason leading up to the draft than Carter? He seemed like a lock to go top-6 and now ??? At this point I’ll be surprised if he goes in the top 10 and this news has to rub teams picking outside the top 10 the wrong way.
It really is a very silly strategy. Assuming we aren’t interested and the report of Vegas taking him off their board are true, that only leaves 4 possible teams for him to meet with? Rosenhaus better be pretty damn confident CHI or PHI is going to take him. For one of the biggest agents in all pro sports he has handled this situation like an absolute clown. If I was him I’d be hiring the best conditioning coach in the country to work his butt three times a day until he’s in good enough shape to do a private workout, and go on a full media blitz about how he has learned from his mistakes and is ready to become the consummate professional. But no, they’re sticking with their disgustingly entitled standpoint of “I didn’t do anything wrong” and “my talent speaks for itself”. Carter isn’t a child but I can’t help but feel like he’s being taken advantage of by a sleazy agent, and what he really needs is for someone to look out for his best interests and well-being.
Drew Rosenhaus talks on the phone while he takes a piss. I was there. I saw it.
And he didn’t wash his hands.
The winner post of the thread
I’m just sayin’, don’t make a handshake deal with Drew Rosenhaus.
Oh my god dude you’re cracking me up
Still, Pauline and other analysts have him graded as #1. And his current shape which is only a reflection of his 2022 season has been factored in.
There will be teams thinking they can turnaround this young man. They will be lured by the prospect of a 2022 Carter, only in shape and fully dialed in.
Somehow, people seeking for such a maternal complex are often finding Seattle as a ready caretaker.
Ah Wypler moved above Schmitz. Makes sense, he’s almost two years younger. I think he’s got great potential. (Though so do the other 3.)
Schmitz, Mauch and Tippmann.
thanks Rob for this
i look forward to see rounds 5 to 7 and specifically i want to investigate the LBs that maybe can be available and your LB list is the starting point along with Safeties/DBs
i am actually very excited for this draft and hope in rounds 5 to 7 Seahawks can find their KJ Wright type maybe even get their Kam Chancellor or Sherman
have a great vacation with your family you deserve it!
I’m really into Darius Rush as a day 2 CB option if we are considering it. Great size and speed and, like our other two best CB hits, has experience as a WR. Big picture I think I’m quite into taking corners with receiver experience.
Seeing how the Hawks may look to double-dip on rb in the draft, I certainly hope some of the smaller backs move earlier so Pete can get backs that better fit his profile (+5’10″/+ 215#). Although Gibbs & Spears may do well in other systems, I think they may be too slight for Pete’s liking.
I’m also hoping we see an early run on CBs so we can see some of the depth in OL/DL pushed down to the 20 range to give more options for a trade down.
I would actually like one smaller back to pair on the field with ken Walker II. Preferably Deuce Vaghn. So when they both go off in games the headline it will read “Deuces Wild, 9ers cant keep up with RB duo”
I was bummed to read he didn’t catch the ball well at his pro day. The comment was you could hear the ball hitting his hands.
Missed that. One of his strengths listed is typically as a pass catcher.
Spears.
He’s my Maurice Morris.
John specifically mentioned the workload that the backs in this system have to endure. Looking at the rbs theyve valued in the past its clear that they want multiple guys that can step into the bellcow role if necessary.
One of the interesting packages that was diminished when Penny went out last year was the “Pony” package that had both him and Ken on the field at the same time. I’d love to see Charbonnet or Izzy paired up with Ken in that set…throw DK, Lockett and Parkinson amd we got something going.
Houston owns the trajectory of this draft… they have the chance to absolutely blowup the first half of round one by surprising the field (Anderson, Young, Richardson, trade out of the top ten).
Houston scares me.
And thank you, Rob. Love going through the updated boards.
Thanks for the updated board Rob and enjoy the trip with your family!
Geno’s letter to Seattle fans.
https://www.theplayerstribune.com/posts/geno-smith-nfl-football-seattle-seahawks
I mean, it’s a nice gesture and a smart PR move for him. I notice he left out any reference or apology for his DUI, though. Might have been a smooth way to get in better graces for putting other motorists at risk, ya know, while you’re baring your soul and all.
The likeliest reaction by 12s to this pablum has me thinking of a quote from The Office (US):
“There’s something about an underdog that really inspires…. the unexceptional.” – Robert California
To be fair, his case hasn’t processed and it’s common knowledge to not comment on any legal affairs until they’re final.
That’s a pretty cynical take on both Geno and Hawks fans. He was a career backup, but being an NFL QB for years isn’t exactly an “underdog”. Can this note genuinely be both a thanks to the fans and a message to free agents in the league about the quality of culture that Carroll builds?
We can cheer for the team and players because we obviously overlook a ton of personal issues by many in the NFL. If Geno wants to address his issues, he may do that. But, I think he just wants to fire up the fans and thank us for cheering for him, while we look forward to next season. Go Hawks!
You can cheer for whatever you wish, my friend. This certainly doesn’t “fire me up.” If anything, it makes yearn harder for the team to move up to #3 and draft the QBOTF. This level of saccharine inanity should be retained only for local legends thanking fans upon their decision to retire. This smells like Geno taking a page out of “PR Sincerity FOR DUMMIES,” complete with a foreword by Russell Wilson.
First you call Geno Smith’s editorial a “nice gesture”, but then switch to “saccharine inanity”—which is it? You say this PR move was “smart”, but then imply it was insincere to a tone-deaf degree—which is it? And worst of all, you let the piece affect what you think the Seahawks should do in the 2023 draft—does this sound rational to you?
Your harsh judgment of Geno Smith is out of scale, and it has you all over the map. I recommend sorting out your indecisiveness and irrationality on the matter before posting further on it.
And for a little perspective, consider remembering that this player just signed one of the most team-friendly deals in recent memory, and continues to sit back unobtrusively while his team publishes a series of fawning selfies taken with his potential replacements. I wouldn’t begrudge the man overmuch for taking a moment to endear himself to the fans. As to the sincerity of his post (or lack thereof), just let him worry about that.
Culture aside, Geno hasn’t won anything and is glorifying half a decent season as if he made something special.
He is a middling player, which is more than a lot of guys in the NFL and certainly all of us can say.
But then, we don’t post such messages, as if we are the beloved centerpiece of the city of Seattle. That’s definitely not the case.
“Geno…is glorifying half a decent season as if he made something special.” –McZ
Where? I’ve read and re-read the article, but I find no instance whatsoever of Geno glorifying his performance. McZ, could you please point this out for us? Thank you…
…Oh wait, here: Geno mentions that Coach Carroll “could tell I had a lot more to offer” than a bust or a backup—the ego on this guy! Wow… And sheesh, here he is bringing up having “had some success here now”—the braggart! “Some success”? What’s the matter with him?! …Whoa, and this bit about his teammates is the topper: “Even with some mistakes I was making in those games, I could tell I had their confidence. I could tell they believed I was a guy they could win with.” OMG! Somebody put a muzzle on this megalomaniac, stat!
—
“We don’t post such messages, as if we are the beloved centerpiece of the city of Seattle.” –McZ
We don’t contribute articles to the Players’ Tribune because we are not professional athletes. You… do… know what the Players’ Tribune is, correct? My goodness. And you just made the claim that Geno Smith submitted the article so as to put himself forward as “the beloved centerpiece of the city of Seattle,” but the next step after making a claim is supplying the evidence. Would you care to do that? Start by citing examples from the text.
“I want to WIN, and I want to live up to the legacies of the great Seahawks players who paved the way here: Russ, Marshawn Lynch, Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Michael Bennett, Bobby Wagner, Walter Jones, Shaun Alexander, Warren Moon, all those guys.”
Half a decent season, and he thinks he can line up with those guys… really, no.
“He kept believing in himself. And eventually he found a city that believes in him back.”
Yeah, “a city”, not “a fandom”. Whatever… I thought he would blow it. He didn’t. I don’t believe he can repeat that. I don’t believe he can win a playoff game. Virtually nobody I’m talking to thinks that. Only some “draft Carter” folks.
So much to belief.
What, you wanted that Geno admitted guilt of a pending DUI case in the internet? Come on.
Apologizing for being in a situation where guilt could be incorrectly presumed isn’t admitting guilt. It’s getting ahead of the story. As most 12s will eat what he’s shoveling, it’d be low key slick.
Oof! Must be a pretty fun guy to be around
Actually, yes. Well, specifically for those of us with analytical brains. I don’t know you but it may not be your speed. We all have our subsets, mate.
So Geno should disregard his lawyers advice and incriminate himself in public so you feel better about him?
I rather he be available to play than in jail.
Respectfully, if you decided not to read what was written and presuppose my position, allowing you to more comfortably argue against that fiction, we’re done here. Cheers.
What is your position, man?
“I notice he left out any reference or apology for his DUI, though. Might have been a smooth way to get in better graces for putting other motorists at risk, ya know, while you’re baring your soul and all.”
How can you do that without admitting guilt?
“Apologizing for being in a situation where guilt could be incorrectly presumed isn’t admitting guilt. It’s getting ahead of the story.”
What story? That happened in january 2022! There’s no story right now.
Geno had a couple quotes this year that showed some really good perspective.
Paraphrasing the best I can..
When I asked about his “hard times” (being stuck as a backup QB): “My hard times would be a dream for someone else” (essentially saying that earning 7 figures while being on an NFL roster is a heck of a good place to be in life; even if it isn’t as a star QB)
He also mentioned how as long as he worked his hardest and was always prepared he wouldn’t have to live with any regrets if his shot never materialized.
The Hawks are extremely fortunate with how the past 12 months have shaken out, and a big part of that is a testament to Geno and his work ethic and belief in himself.
Israel Abanikanda looks like such a stud to me. So explosive. Would it be too rich to take him in the 2nd round to form a dominant RB pair with Walker?
Not for me. Him, Gibbs, Charbonnet or Spears. Any of them at 52 would be a get.
Spears.
I wouldn’t complain. I forget you saw him live and it was a helluva performance too.
If Gibbs is sitting there at 52 that will be the new talking point for devalued RBs.
He legit could be RB1, with KW being the backup.
Yeah, I agree there’s virtually no way he’s there at 52. Maybe at 37, but that’s a bit rich for RB for me.
I find myself thinking more and more that a trade up from 37 needs to happen, there is a cluster there in the late part of the first round.
If we get Anderson, I want 2 offensive weapons (Downs would be ideal, so would Mayer). If we go QB, I want to see McDonald and an offensive weapon.
33rd team has Gibbs listed as their 21st highest rated prospect. So lasting to 37 might be stretch but could be close.
I don’t think the top 2 RBs get out of round 1. Buffalo needs a better run game. KC used a 7th rounder. Dallas could really use another RB. Erc.
Good points Mike.
I would also make the argument nothing will sabotage the season more than Walker getting hurt. That’s why I would go RB in round 2 just like last year.
I’d love Spears, Chase Brown, or Tank
Israel Abanikanda is my #3 RB for my Seattle board. Bijan, Gibbs, and him.
Taking a look at this impressive piece of art, I think we are well-positioned for this draft. I am unworried.
However, I predict that there are some teams, largely because of the impact of the pandemic, that will crash and burn this year.
New Orleans, I am looking at you. After last year’s Trevor Penning disaster, how much would it suck for them to lose out on the top two tackles?
Imagine choosing between taking one of those tackles and losing out on Hendon Hooker.
I’m curious as to which team will make the first major reach.
Whichever team takes Jalen Carter……..imo of course.
Seattle at #5, Myles Murphy.
Just to wish you a nice time in sun, Rob. Great work once again!
R1 P5 QB Anthony Richardson – Florida
R1 P20 EDGE Will McDonald IV – Iowa State
R2 P6 C John Michael Schmitz – Minnesota
R2 P21 DL Keeanu Benton – Wisconsin
R3 P20 DL Zacch Pickens – South Carolina
R4 P21 RB Israel Abanikanda – Pittsburgh
R5 P16 G Nick Broeker – Ole Miss
R5 P19 DL Moro Ojomo – Texas
R6 P21 S DeMarcco Hellams – Alabama
R7 P20 RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. – Kentucky
My stick and pick draft. Missed out on TE & WR by focusing the line early. Pretty close to max “value’ per Rob’s board and what was available. This was on Fanspeak (most recent big board available) and I found the rankings more up-to-date than PFN or others.
This would certainly be an excellent draft if it fell this way! I hope maybe they have an opportunity to find a productive WR somewhere in the draft, perhaps in R3 in lieu of one DL. I’m just splitting hairs though and would be happy with your draft!
Mingo and Ford-Wheaton went 80 & 81 in that draft, so I missed them by a couple of spots. I agree that a WR3 would be a nice add.
This is close to perfect for me. I go back and forth on Ade vs McDonald at 20.
Anderson is a good not great prospect with excellent character. But as Rob and many here have said he’s not going to come in and be a Von Miller, Myles Garrett, or a Bosa brother.
With that said, how much better is Anderson when compared to guys like Will McDonald, Derick Hall, or other guys highlighted here? I can see he’s definitely better than Nolan Smith, Isaiah Foskey, the Kansas State guy, and the Clemson duo.
But is getting Anderson + one of Ade Ade/Keion White + a center a better haul than a QB like AR or WL + Will McDonald/center + one of Ade Ade/Keion White/Derick Hall? Thought it’d be an interesting discussion.
I would say he’s a great, but maybe not elite prospect. I’d take a great prospect at 5. Anderson’s floor seems to be an above-average starter.
McDonald and Hall maybe have as much upside, but have they demonstrated it? And where is their floor? Is McDonald anywhere near as effective in the run game where the Hawks desperately need help? Is he the next Darrell Taylor?
My sense reading the tea leaves of all of this is that unless Stroud falls, the Hawks’ ideal situation is to get Anderson. Open to any of the top 4 QBs, but hoping someone trades into AZ’s spot so Anderson falls to them. It’s odd how little has been said about their interest in him, even though it’s an obvious need, scheme fit, and someone who very well might be there. They seem to be directing attention elsewhere.
Of course, who knows, that’s just my hunch. But if they desperately wanted a QB at 5, why announce it so loudly?
Big friend of the blog just posted his final big board and I can’t get past Myles Murphy at 6 overall.
Also, and I understand the basis, isn’t the sample size for Carter too small to project #1 overall?
I mean, what quantifiable, empirical metric goes into his grade? Isn’t most of it projection?
And while I get projection is part of all the rest, none of the rest are graded #1, and some have a lot more evidence for that honor than Carter.
I don’t mean any disrespect to someone who’s a lot more dialed in to how the pros look at prospects than I am or probably ever will be. But this reads like a casual fan’s top 100.
It’s crap shoot. If the hawks trade up with Arizona there is NO guarantee that Richardson is still going to be on the board when the Hawks are on the board.
The best scenario for Arizona to trade the third overall pick before the NFL draft. That is when they will get the biggest haul.
But here is a word to the wise. Very few people don’t remember this. But in the 2003 draft the Cardinals had the ninth overall pick. Terrell Suggs was on the board. Did Arizona take him? Nope! They traded away the pick to the Ravens. Guess who the Cardinals used with the extra 1st pick? Calvin Pace. Anyone remember Calvin Pace? Well Pace did have a decent career. 60 sacks. Pace only played 5 years with the Cardinals. During his time in Arizona Pace collect 14 sacks. The majority of sacks came after he left Arizona. Terrell Suggs on the other hand had a career of 139 sacks. 132 sacks with the Ravens. Suggs even won a Super Bowl with the Ravens.
Wrong, the biggest haul will be in the minutes on the clock. Especially, if you have four viable QBs, a decent DE and a leasue full of needy teams.
That said, Arizona can swap with Indy and still is in control of the draft.
Or you run out of time to properly negotiate
Hard to get a ‘haul’ in 10 minutes
Another Q: if Arizona doesn’t like the locks they could get back from LV, Detroit, etc…do you see them accepting trade packages with veterans from those teams who could package a trade? When assessing “highest bidder” scenarios, I haven’t heard much speculation on these scenarios..
Does anyone else think Dorian Williams might be one of the options for Seattle’s plan moving on from Ryan Neal?
Yes there are some good safety prospects, especially the box safeties Seattle like. But Williams is pretty close to tweener size too, with the athleticism to play farther back in cover 2/3 than the average LB, and better than any LB on roster.
He almost checks two boxes for their new scheme, and his versatility could help disguise coverage schemes pre snap.
I think you’re on the mark with him. He’s great at spy or coverage. If he’s in pursuit and can weave through blocks he does ok, but if the run is coming right at him he gets blocked out of the play quite easily.
He does have a borderline safety body and in the bowl game, Tulane even had him lined up outside on some small WR’s.
I was listening to Matty Brown talk about the defense on Cigar Thoughts and he talked about how much 2-4-5 we actually ran last year. With 2 DL, 2 LB coming off the edge (Nwossu, Taylor, Mafe, Irvin) along with Brooks/Barton and then Cobe as big nickel with 2 corners, Diggs and Neal… Of course this formation is really light and sacrifices run D for coverage.
Barton, for his flaws was pretty good in coverage. Bobby’s coverage was falling off two years ago. Bush feels like the hedge in that he was solid in coverage for an off-ball LB before his injury. Williams would be the coverage heavy backer in the draft that would let us run the scheme they want if Bush can’t get back to what he was, or just move on next year if Dorian looked serviceable.
I think Pete said they look at a player and envision what he can do, not what he can’t.
A sleeper name that could possibly fill that same role is Jaiden Woodbey. Boston College safety that is about the same size as Dorian Williams. Woodbey is 6’0, 231lbs. He ran a 4.14 short shuttle (Barton was 4.03 and BBK was 4.09) and a 4.55 40 yard (Brooks was 4.54). Could probably land him with a 7th or UDFA.
I heard that Tennessee is interested in moving up.
The video is here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ff3ucDXilkw
I couldn’t get the video to load but here’s PFR’s report:
https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/04/titans-interested-in-moving-up-for-qb
I mean, if Tennessee are willing to spend that much, power to them. But if they dangle Jeffery Simmons plus picks… you could probably trim the 2024 picks off that deal. No offense to DJ Moore, but he’s no Simmons.
And that deal would be harder for Seattle to match.
It was the Pat McAfee show with guest Ian Rappaport discussing Daniel Jeremiah’s report.
This would be a nightmare scenario, not getting our QBoTF will sting for many many years. Will Anderson as a consolation prize just doesnt seem very enticing at all. How much better does Will Anderson make the team? How much better would a QBoTF make the team? Thats all you need to know.
I am open to being flexible. I don’t want to pay a king’s ransom to move up two spots. We have the capital to properly compensate Arizona. But if they are unreasonable, I would just as well draft Bijan Robinson, then take Darnell Wright or Duwand Jones at #20 while flipping off New Orleans, then grab a center in round two.
Then we run the ball 600 times.
I like your plan B
Only problem with this is, if Bijan goes down that plan completely falls apart.
Well I expect at least one of our running backs to go down. Wouldn’t be a Seahawk team if they didn’t, at least now there’s another star player.
KWII would also run the ball in the hypothetical 600, not just Bijan.
I’m with you Palatypus. Not only a center in round 2 but if a high rated receiver is there I would grab them. What an offense, the defense may not see the field.
Good shout from his agent…
Seahawks need to get a move on and make a deal happen to move up. This is their one chance to get a QBoTF.
That was meant in response to Palatypus.
Wow, that’s a fun watch!
Hardest HITTING CB in College Football 💥|| Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon Highlights ᴴᴰ
https://youtu.be/7ICJTgLDfWI
I don’t know if anyone posted this here but Geno wrote an open letter to the 12s. I was really impressed with it and am glad he’ll be back this year. I also think he’ll legitimately be happy to help groom the rookie.
https://www.theplayerstribune.com/posts/geno-smith-nfl-football-seattle-seahawks
There won’t be any rookie to groom if the Hawks sit on their @$$ at 5 and dont make a move to trade up. Im suspecting that there won’t be a QB there if they dont move up.
Posted and discussed a bit above:
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/updated-horizontal-board-3rd-april#comment-731141
Thanks man!
Tons of respect for Geno Smith. He certainly has taken the high road.
If it was taken while sober, it’s a good start! 👍🏽
BTW: If Tennessee is interested in moving up to take a QB. That does not bode well for either Malik Willis or Ryan Tannehill
Doesnt bode well for us either. Thats just another team we have to outbid.
Would you give up a day three pick for Willis in that scenario?
He was drafted with a third and didn’t exactly set the world on fire, but this is a shallow QB class…maybe a 5th?
No chance in hell. Willis looked exactly like his college tape last year. I’d rather roll with Lock 10/10 times.
Malik Willis’ skills don’t bode well for Malik Willis.
💯
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/RtWeL8uprfI
Trying not to read too much into this.
Comments are predictably dumpster fire. So many clueless fans in this fanbase, havent seen anything like it.
Man, I’m convinced that most 12s don’t even WATCH football. I’m nearly certain many of them use gameday as a viable excuse to drink themselves stupid without their friends and loved ones catching on to a deeper addiction. I, for the record, also drink on Sundays but that’s because I was raised Catholic and graduated beyond communion wine. 🥴
Who needs a viable excuse?
There is weird groupthink, Im eager for this off-season to be over.
Who are these people you talk to? I haven’t spoke with any Seahawks fans that think taking a quarterback in the first round is a bad idea.
There are plenty out there
You aren’t looking very hard then, just go on Reddit, FB, and other Seahawks related “content creators” on YT and read the comments…. Overwhelming majority is delusional smooth brain garbage.
Even a mainstream site like Field Gulls has the comment sections turning into a sewage plant.
I appreciate dissenting viewpoints. I do not appreciate personal attacks, condescending statements, or general rudeness.
You sweet child, we must keep you safe.
I’m semi convinced that the commenter above who mentioned Drew Rosenhaus hiring a Russian bot farm to spam pro Carter comments might be on to something. It at least makes more sense then “the selfie tour is 12 dimensional chess”.
I could list the hot takes here…Skoronski (a guard) at 5, what about Van Ness?
To be fair…I’d rather take Skoronski and Wright at 5 and 20 than Carter and Van Ness.
Oh my god. It’s everyone I work with.
Showme-
I fully agree with this.
This Carter talk from the bigger media outlets to the fans ears has shown me that most people can not be bothered with critical thinking.
A few weeks ago Albert Breer, patient Zero for this Carter noise, was in 710am in Seattle and knowingly said (paraphrasing) “talked to a bunch of scouts and they said Carter might be the BEST player on that great, 2021, Georgia team”
Bing bang boom that’s it. It doesn’t matter how you frame it with these people. No production, no snaps, terrible off season, dline players often take about two years to get going, etc, etc….
Honestly…it hurts my brain to watch in real time how narratives are created.
And in hindsight an unpopular take from me: might actually have been better to not back into the playoffs. On the one hand you get playoff experience for the following: woolen, lucas, cross, walker, Bryant, mafe sort of.
On the other hand there’s a whole bunch of fans that think we are “win now,” when adding Jones and love probably moves that defensive needle from very bottom of the barrel to….near the bottom of the barrel.
I feel like Rosenhaus has some kind of bot farm pushing Carter on message boards.
But that’s probably just me not wanting to think so many fans are that delusional.
I guarantee you its the latter, there really are just that many delusional morons in this fanbase.
This bot farm thing makes more sense than some of the theories I’ve heard regarding smoke screens.
I’d write up a satire article, if I was a better writer.
Rob, I was curious if you feel that there are any G’s worthy of being selected in the 2nd rounds. O’Torrence is a Guard that mocks have him going in the 2nd, but you’ve got him ranked in the 4th. Any particular reason?
Check out his Sr Bowl film. He isn’t very good.
He looked like twinkle-toes during combine and Sr bowl week.
Game film, wrong body type, bad sr bowl week.
Don’t believe the hype, on any prospect.
Ekiyor is my favorite guard coming out, and the 3rd is about right for him.
All these reports say that O’Torrence rocked the Senior Bowl and some are saying that the Seahawks should consider him at pick #20.
https://hailfloridahail.com/2023/02/05/florida-gators-news-ocyrus-torrence-senior-bowl/
I still don’t understand why so many people insist he dominated the senior bowl. I’m no scout, but I watched his reps and was extremely unimpressed. He’s slow off the snap, he consistently allowed defenders to make the first engagement and punch into his chest, and his hand usage looked absolutely dreadful, constantly grabbing onto the jersey outside the shoulders and holding. Getting knocked on his bum by 230 lb Ivan Pace was the cherry on top of what I saw as a dreadful week. Then add in his abhorrent combine numbers and it shocks me that anyone is even still seriously talking about him as a first round pick.
https://youtu.be/DG7fQAN0iLA
This has Torrence on roller skates, it doesn’t do to have your guard sitting in your QBs lap right after the snap, and the run blocks are sloppy.
Watching this again, I fall more and more deeply in love with Pickens. Guards that dominate are Avila and Broeker. Ekiyor looks about what I remember. Tackles are Wright and Bergeron (dude looks better than I recall)
Both Byron Young’s featured here, McDonald and Hall as well.
Oh yeah. These reps are really great for Pickens. Also very impressed with JMS in these. He looks to have some ridiculous hand strength. He really just locks on right away and uses them to control the defender. Still wouldn’t take him at 20, but if he’s there at 37 it will be an interesting decision. Torrence looked ok against Byron Young (AL) but pretty dreadful against everyone else. Completely owned twice by Jalen Redmond, who is far from a top prospect.
Another great write up, Rob.
Question: I love Mingo. So, what is the criticism about him that makes it feel like he is so underappreciated? If he drops past the third, I think he becomes one of the best valu picks this year.
Probably just a repeat of the Abe Lucas nonsense from a year ago
Isn’t Ole Miss’ offense/QB/scheme a factor too? AJ Brown and DK were both from Ole Miss and criminally slept on like Mingo….
Another huge red flag for me re: Carter. Reports he will only be visiting teams that hold a top 10 pick.
I get being confident but this is immature and arrogant. Does he not understand there are actually trades in the NFL. I read that and feel it is another character flag for me. Pass, pass, pass, pass, pass and then maybe pick 200
Top 30 visit: Jordan Howden
https://twitter.com/aaronwilson_nfl/status/1642987511474446336?s=46&t=cOHU3a7sncZq-_1QP4M1Og
Sure seems like a safety is in play this draft.
There may be some buyer’s remorse in the NFL when it comes to massive quarterback contracts.
“Who got what they paid for?” one league executive asked of last year’s spending, per Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated.
Breer noted last offseason had six teams pay at least $40 million annually in new contracts for quarterbacks: Arizona Cardinals (Kyler Murray), Cleveland Browns (Deshaun Watson), Denver Broncos (Russell Wilson), Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers), Los Angeles Rams (Matthew Stafford) and Las Vegas Raiders (Derek Carr).
Per: bleacher report
This: probably why this will be the first year ever we see 4 go in the top 10
I think you’re on to something. I thought teams would wise up and only pay big money to top tier guys but then Daniel Jones got a huge deal. Either way I’m happy Geno was signed for a reasonable amount. That’s honestly about what a decent signal caller is worth in my opinion. 10 to 12 percent of the cap.
Any thoughts on Kendell Brooks? Very charasmatic, tough kid.
Mock on NFL Mock Draft Database. Traded down multiple times after 5.
1.5 Anderson Edge
1.30 Kancey DL
2.46 Hooker QB
2.52 Downs WR
2.62 Wypler C
3.76 Kraft TE
3.83 Turner CB
4.118 Spears RB
4.123 Roy NT
5.151 Dorian Williams LB
5.154 Kobie Turner DL
6.1.87 Jay Ward S
7.198 Gaines G
I wish we could bring in this kind of playmaking ability on both sides of the ball in the first half of the draft and then quality depth in the second half of the draft!
If we could get Anderson and Kancey in round 1, I would gladly settle for Hooker as our QBOTF in round 2!
Thoughts?
Go Hawks!
You are on the right track with some of your picks, Seattle will likely go NT and OL on Day 3. It would be a break in trend for them to go TE/C on day 1 or 2, so you have to think about if the player justifies that pick. Kancey is a size outlier, so you also need to think about where the Hawks would value him versus other high value positions.
I do not like Hooker for the Hawks, it sounds like a team like the Saints will trade back into R1 to take him anyways. Generally, after the big 4 the QB matches would be DTR/Hall/Bennett, although Bennett’s recent interview has me thinking he is off the Hawk’s board. I do not like rostering a QB3 unless they are an Elite prospect.
Beware computer rankings! They’ve got players like Pickens, Byron Young (ALA), Banks, Beal, Rezjohn, Chris Rodriguez, etc… available on Day 3 and sometimes in Round 7. I’ve experimented before with trading back for only day 3 picks and come out with ridiculous results to prove a point.
You’ve got numerous players that will be taken much earlier. Downs is a R1 talent drawing a lot of buzz, Kraft is a late 2nd round prospect gaining buzz, if that is DJ Turner he is CB 3/4 in this draft – gone by day 1, Spears will be gone in R2, I doubt the Hawks would pass him up with pick 52. I try to stay disciplined when I use the computer draft and if I see a player available at a ridiculous spot, I pass them over as if they had been selected previously.
Rob, regarding the point about Arizona finding it difficult to get a bidding war going while they’re on the clock, I think it’s entirely doable if they set it up well beforehand. They will have already had the interested teams’ best offers lined up. If the board falls the way most expect (i.e. Stroud and Young gone), then they just take the offer they like from beforehand.
But if the board goes an unexpected way (e.g. Stroud falling to #3, for example), it could just be what sparks teams to up their offer. In that case, I think they identify beforehand the two or three teams with most serious interest in the range they are willing to trade down to and then just stay on the phone with them asking: who’s sweetening the deal a bit on top of what was already offered before the draft?
Honestly, in the unlikely event it is Stroud on the board at #3, Indy vs. Seattle is probably the bidding war they will want to focus on unless the Falcons or someone shows up with an offer way beyond what they had offered before that the Cards feel they simply can’t refuse.
That’s a fair counter and very plausible
I think there’s a reason we’ve seen a lot of ‘early’ trades though — it’s easier to manage the bidding, make a decision without pressure and then plan accordingly with time to spare. If the Cardinals are dropping to a certain spot, they need to be ready for what that will present
I thought a deal might come quickly after Florida’s pro-day and was wrong on that, so I might be wrong about an early deal all together
A theme with 3 of the top 4 drafting teams is an owner that is overly involved in decision making, that ties a GMs hands to a point. Makes me thankful for the Allen family’s stewardship.
A new GM/Coach working with an involved owner is one of the reasons I suspect that Arizona hasn’t swung a trade yet. They haven’t even resolved their Hopkins situation yet.
The Tennessee story reeked of a friend trying to help out a friend. There are reports that there are up to 100 day 2 graded prospects, maybe teams are being more stingy with those picks? Offering R4 + 2024 compensation?
Another reason that deals may not have yet concluded could be team visits. If these quarterbacks, in particular, are as tightly graded as it appears, teams are no doubt trying to figure out which is the best fit, and who will be available, or better said, what order they are likely to come off the board. Then there is the issue of compensation; what is the true “market price” to move up. Draft value charts are one thing, what the market is willing to pay can be totally different.
Agree completely Sea Mode. In commercial construction bidding, most of your very large subcontract bids come within minutes of when you have to have your bid in. To make this work you must have all the prep for each bid is in, what is in, what is out, terms, etc. All done so that the last item is just the price. Logic is all set, and actually within a minute we can have the selected final sub bids selected and our bid offer out to the owner.
In the event JS only liked 1 or 2 of the QB’s he would certainly wait imo. I just couldn’t see JS moving up without an ironclad guarantee he gets his guy. If he did move up, and his guy wasn’t there, not only would he have wasted draft capital, but in his own mind be a real failure in this important draft. Everything can be worked out between teams with the contingency of pulling the trigger from both sides after 1 and 2 are selected.
Looking at the defensive backs on Rob’s board I can easily imagine that Pete will have found one or two from the group that he will tell John, “Do what you will, but get me one of these”. He must have a chapped chin from all the drooling he is doing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOO7EAj6kCU
Saw this short bodycam video of a previous speeding incident with Jalen Carter going 89 in a 45. With his terrible judgement, character and conditioning, I’d be surprised if he didn’t completely fall out of the 1st round.
https://www.si.com/nfl/draft/news/pro-day-speed-burners-6-forty-times-that-caught-nfl-scouts-attention
Several extremely fast players on this page ran 4.3s to 4.4s at their pro day. Maybe we can get them a day or 2 after the draft as a UDFA if not late day 3.
Thanks so much for all the great content and updating the big board Rob. Think I noticed and forgot to ask last time it was updated. But safety Jartavius Martin in both rd. 3 and rd. 4, that’s not a same name Byron Young from Alabama and Tennessee situation, is it? Thanks for any clarification on this.
All these reports say that O’Torrence rocked the Senior Bowl and some are saying that the Seahawks should consider him at pick #20.
https://hailfloridahail.com/2023/02/05/florida-gators-news-ocyrus-torrence-senior-bowl/
LOL
You laugh, but Shawn Michael Duger is also inquiring about it as well.
“In this draft, that would likely mean using the No. 5 pick on someone like Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski (who’s perhaps better equipped to play tackle), Florida guard O’Cyrus Torrence (No. 36 on the big board)”
I think he could go first round. When I look at him I just see a bigger sloppier Carpenter/ifedi.
For the seahawks I’d rather by a mile draft Wright or Jones and move Lucas inside then. Chance it with a guy who isn’t explosive, looks slow to stand up.
I really dot get it with Skoronski. This is a me problem to be sure but I see people repelled by the idea of Lucas inside but are also totally fine “trading back,” and picking Skoronski top half of round one who probably plays guard I the future.
He has no business going in R1
I don’t get the hype
Why? I’ve heard Senior Bowl. But according to most pundits, he crushed it. I’ve heard size, but do the Seahawks even have a type of Guard profile? His game tape is good. I’m not arguing.m, I’d just like a legitimate reason as tovwhat makes you think otherwise.
Pundits have a vested interest in perpetuating the narratives that they themselves created. Idk how anyone could watch the senior bowl practices and think he “crushed it”, but it’s an obscure enough point that 99% of readers will not validate for themselves, and even the ones who choose to watch don’t know how to scout anyway. It’s pretty telling to me how much hand-wringing has been done over meaningless tidbits like Levis “struggling when rolling to his left” at his pro day, and yet I’ve seen exactly zero mainstream pundits even mention in passing how unequivocally awful Torrence’s combine performance was. It’s easier for them to continue pumping up prospects than to actually do any sort of critical analysis, or god forbid, admit they were wrong about something.
He didn’t crush it at the Senior Bowl. People were giving him ‘wins’ for being driven seven yards into the backfield. He was absolutely lit up by Ivan Pace during the game, being dumped on his arse by a player 100lbs lighter than he is.
His tape is bang average. Got a ton of help from the right tackle. Nothing that impressive.
Terrible testing profile. Not athletic.
Players like this available every year.
Films watched on the plane:
Top Gun Maverick again (I’m not kidding)
Smile
Watched some corkers recently. Really enjoyed Smile once the kids had gone to sleep. M3gan was good, Puss in Boots was 10/10.
That’s dedication to watch Maverick on a tiny airplane screen! 😂
Saw your tweet about the live sports and definitely agree about the leg room! (I’m 6-2 and change). Though I mostly travel alone and usually manage to discreetly volunteer myself for the exit row when boarding. Works for me most of the time!
Maverick and puss n boots were the two movies I saw in the theater the last year. Both were great. Looking forward to taking kids to Mario.
I’m 6’6″ and despise flying because of that. Flying itself doesn’t scare me or anything like that. But I have to pay up for “premier” seating just to be somewhat comfortable on an airplane. For a round trip to Vegas and back, that’s roughly another $160 just for decent comfort (tho sure as hell not first class). I’m so old I remember when airlines had plenty of room and treated their passengers as something above cattle. Of course, I’m so old I remember smoking being allowed on an airplane so there’s that too. Regardless, as a result, I rarely fly.
I’ve got a couple of questions:
1. How’s your first step? Are you quick off the snap?
2. Are you more of mauling guard or a traditional 3-4 end?
3. What top 30 visits are you most excited about?
😂
I had a super long flight a few months ago and it’s so hard to finish a movie on those tiny screens. I shut at least 6 down part way through, so many bad movies (or at least hard to watch on those screens), but Maverick was the only one I watched all the way through.
Puss in Boots 2 was really good man. Underrated. I like a movie that has a straight a-hole villain. Too many cop out sympathetic villains now days. Enjoy yourself Rob!
I can’t believe every mock draft is suddenly blending into one
Take the Seahawks. Nearly every one now has them taking Jalen Carter and then a Jordan Addison type at #20. I’d be stunned by either pick.
Plus everyone has Levis falling but a.) typically still have him going in the teens b.) never really explain why they’ve all gone from mocking him top-five to that later range
The Levis thing is so ridiculous tbh. Like come on guys, at least pretend that any of you are actually thinking for yourselves. It would be one thing if he was being mocked in the 2nd round in January, but he was consistently in the top 3, sometimes going #1. All he’s done since then is have extremely an impressive combine and pro day. Like you, I just want one of these people to explain why he’s dropping so severely, so suddenly. Especially Bucky Brooks, who had him at #7 in his 2nd mock, then completely out of the first round in his 3rd. So ridiculous that people get paid to write this drivel, and the average casual fans just lap it up.
This morning, McShay has us taking Carter and Flowers, w Keion White and Steve Avila in the 2nd. Levis #14 to Tampa who trades up w NE.
My guess is that this has all been lazy, copycat-ism. Seattle has a huge need in the middle of the DL, Jalen Carter is seen by most as the most promising DT prospect in the draft, so everyone ignores the obvious character and conditioning issues because, hey, Pete Carroll drafted Bruce Irvin, Frank Clark, and Malik McDowell after all.
Apparently, Carter putting up a sloppy embarrassment of a pro day isn’t going to hurt his stock, because the legal concerns are behind him. But Levis, depiste looking great at the combine and at his pro day, is going to fall because he’s cocky, is too ripped, and puts mayo in his coffee.
Counter:
At least mcshays mock actually addresses a few things. That if the dline is crap you’ll need multiples to make it better. That Seattle needs iOl help. Ad we need a third reciever.
Now….not necessarily praise for the picks just the process.
I have no issues with his picks beyond Carter. I like all those players and they do address needs.
The problem is Carter still seems to be the go-to ‘generational talent’ DL that is too good for Seattle to pass on at #5, despite plenty of other evidence to the contrary. Just seems too easy to plug his name in and move on, rather than realize we are much more likely to take QB#4 or trade back and add a Cancey, Mazi, and/or Pickens to the line later.
And he doesn’t give any real explanation for Levis falling to the teens. For Vegas, Atlanta, and Tenneseee to all pass up the remaining consensus franchise QB prospect when he is just sitting there for the taking makes no sense to me.
I hate the draft on whole.
I guess I was comparing to others including Seattle adjacent that go : carter……then absolutely zero dline help after that.
At least we didn’t get the obligatory O’Cyrus Torrence pick at #20. All those Carter/Torrence mocks to us in the first make me want to curl up in the fetal position.
Those will be fun practices to watch.
The movable object (torrence) vs. The stoppable force (carter: see Wypler, Wright, his own conditioning)
This is kind of what gets me. Take a recently published final big board with Carter at the top.
How is Carter the top prospect in tis draft? Based on what? What’s the criteria for being the top prospect in any given draft?
Pure speculation? Pure projection?
Also, how do you define “top”? Is it just the footballing? Or the footballing and athleticism? Or is it the football and athleticism and character?
Feels like too many of the NFL draft world intelligentsia focus too much on one to the exclusion of the others. But even in Carter’s case, I’m at a loss to understand how he’s top in any of those categories.
Is Carter the best player in this class? Maybe. I guess he could be, he could become the best player out of this class.
But is he the best right now? Hell no.
Does he have top prospect stats? Nope. Not even close. Not for one season. Not for one week. Not even for one entire game.
Game tape? Nope, not outside a highlight reel’s worth representing his entire college career.
Dude’s never put together one entire game of top prospect football from opening kickoff to final whistle.
So where’s the top grade come from, outside like literally 10 total minutes of film?
And that’s before we get to the character concerns. And I want to be clear about that — the main concern for me is that his character isn’t committed to football, or to greatness in general.
To me, listing Carter as the top player in this draft is as lazy, draftbois groupthink as it comes. It makes it hard for me to take a board or the person who prepared it seriously on issues like these. And I don’t enjoy saying that.
It’s getting old that we’re still even having to have these conversations but you’re 100% correct. Other people have said it earlier but most of these guys barely watch Sunday football let alone college. Then they love to sound smart on socials running with the media narrative that’s drawn up by people who’s agenda is entirely just about getting eye balls and gives no consideration to the young men working their asses off to make the pro dream a reality.
It’s the same as building up a pretty poor qb class last year that real experts knew were 3rd round guys while trashing this year’s class, which might end up being the best qb class since the 80s.
Once you start dropping Carter, where do you put him?
He won’t last, but I’d look at day 2 once Kancey, Smith, Benton, and Pickens are gone. Won’t happen. Someone will take him round 1.
I guess I will eat a ton of crow if he turns out to suddenly be a force in the NFL, but it’s not just the character concerns with Carter. He settled his criminal case, and maybe he’s learned his lesson, but I’m not willing to gamble a top 5 pick on that hope.
Bigger issue for me is his lack of work ethic and conditioning, which has been discussed here extensively. His pro day was a disaster – he looked like a late round flyer or UDFA, People seem to be writing it off that he was ‘dealing with stuff’. Ok. One bad day. He was a complete non-factor in the Ohio State game which was close, and wasn’t a difference maker in the title game which wasn’t. Doesn’t seem to make any difference to a lot of people. Again, we’re talking about a top 5 pick here, That is just waaaay to many red flags.
Dallas is my answer. If he gets past Dallas it could be a free fall.
Dropping could be the thing that motivates him.
Maybe it’s a smokescreen for copycat Mock boarders.
It’s a great point. No work ethic, character and legal concerns, Carroll’s fine w it. Levis? No, he’s weird. The group think thoughtless narratives are certainly head-scratching.
I know. People are doing the weirdest 2 + 2 equals the cow goes moo.
Bruce Irvin played his ass off all over the dline at college. Frank Clark w/o parsing his legal problems was way into playing his ass off on the field.
Malik mcdowell….is both the nearest comp and the catalyst to why Seattle doesn’t pick chances like that anymore.
But a super entitled guy who is only interviewing with top ten teams….sure that guy will definitely have the light turn on when the checks are bigger than NIL money.
Someone please explain to me how a guy who so obviously has little to zero (or below) work ethic is going to succeed in the NFL? Serious question.
They’re going to get him to “buddy up,” with Wagner like kids on a field trip and wagner is going to babysit him at the gym, in the film room, and tuck him in at night to make sure he’s not out doing something stupid.
This is a freebie for Gross ma toast or platypus to write a heartwarming buddy comedy about their adventures.
Different position but there are sure a lot of parallels to JaMarcus Russell in that regard. The Raiders thought he would magically find the necessary work ethic once they paid him millions.
Excellent comparison
Yeah, Pete and John would never draft, start, and build a franchise around a weird QB that is obsessed with football to a possibly unhealthy level and has atypical physical traits for a QB.
I know you’re busy applying sunscreen to yourself and the family but what is going on with the Addison talk?
Hey! Remember Paul Richardson? How about a guy who is even smaller, slower, and less explosive?
That’s pick 20? A guy who will almost certainly live at the corner of “injured reserve lane” and “did not participate avenue” with dee eskridge.
Give me strength and get me Mingo.
I chalk a lot of it up to sheer laziness.
When I’ve tried to do a full day 1 or *gulp* day 2 mock, I find that there are certain spots that become problematic if you don’t force a match.
If Carter doesn’t go to Seattle @5 where does he go, how far do I drop him? If all 4 QBs are gone by 5, what do I do with OAK, TN? What do I do with T/G prospects, or names like Bresee, Ricks, JSN, etc…
My suspicion has been that people have high accuracy with orgs they are juiced to, and use orgs they have little info on as dumping grounds, not paying much mind to that orgs scheme, size preferences, etc…
I guess I missed your point earlier with my reply. For mock purposes, I would consider Carter as high as #6 to Detroit, again to Detroit at #18, or all the way to Dallas at #26.
Exactly, and then all of those moves have ripples that throws wrenches into your mock.
It starts to get messy, and then a relatively quick piece of click bait content turns into a multi hour project.
If Bijan goes to Det @6 – my prediction and Carter lasts to Dallas @26, these cause multiple problems, then those problems cause problems. And then you are trying to find a landing spot for Bresee or Van Ness, and if a team passes once will they pass again?
Agree with you completely. Except the fact that you need to find a landing spot for Ricks in your 2 round mock.
What blows me away is not only the Carter to Seattle talk, but the rationale that “Pete Carroll is the perfect coach for players like him. Pete isn’t afraid to take on risky players with talent. Pete can get the most out of him,” citing Malik McDowell as proof. They don’t seem to consider how that risky pick actually turned out for Seattle or think that Carroll and Schneider may have learned a lesson from it.
Rob, any thoughts on Kazmeir Allen out of UCLA? Smaller player (5” 8” 185), kind of a tweener between RB and WR, but a great KR. Blazing speed at his pro day with a 4.27 40. I was talking to his agent the other day and he seems to think Kaz will go somewhere around 5th round based on talks with teams. He’s not on your board, so I was curious if you’d seen him.
Isn’t that fishy? Especially in reference to McShay’s Mock draft and with him breaking some of the Carter news.
And for Levis, it’s as if the Buc’s wanted to leak bad news about Levis and have mock drafts with him dropping so it spreads a sour taste in everyone’s mouth above them. Could they be paying the big name analysts to do this?
It’s really hard to believe a picture of a guy being ripped makes him drop as much as a picture of Tunsil with a bong.
If you’re bored treat the mock drafts like I do: a combination of choose your own adventure and the hardie boys.
I’m not even joking here. The smokiest screen this off-season is this curiously timely fall for Levis so some team that has no draft capital or desire to trade up can “half heartedly feel obliged,” to draft him as “a flyer,” in the bottom of round one.
The Levis drop is so smokey I’m already getting emphysema from it.
Actual lol.
The amount of info and good conversations on SDB is astounding! I was on a cruise for the past week, so I couldn’t read SDB and it took me forever to make it through everything I missed! Rob, you are killing it (and deserve your holiday). The conversations are the best on on any site, keeping me from giving up on the sanity of Seahawk fans.
I also checked out Dugar’s podcast (Seahawks Man 2 Man) in which they interviewed Nate Tice. The hosts thoughts are always questionable, but I really enjoyed Tice’s interview where he talks about all of the quarterbacks. If you haven’t listened, check that episode out.
Nate Tice had great info, he is a guy who knows ball very well. They had a previous one with Diante Lee on front 7 players that was good as well.
I like MSD, and understand that he hears a lot of stuff that he cannot repeat, which probably makes his job harder. Chris is a good media guy, but clearly lacks insight, I like it though because he feels like a casual fan, the type who pumped his fist with Bozworth back in the day. Neither are obnoxious.
Is Nate Tice Mike’s kid?
Yep. I believe he backed up Russ at Wisconsin, but didn’t play much in college.
Mike Tice’s Lunchbox…
He retired to Seattle didn’t he?
where did you cruise?
We went out of Galveston, Tx, to Roatan (Honduras), Belize, and Cozumel. Great spring break trip with the wife and kids. Disconnected for a week.
Don’t like this……
Don’t worry, it’s probably a SMOKESCREEN. But seriously though, if they already went to his pro day and met with him and talked with his coach and his agent, I don’t see any reason why they’d spend another meeting on him.
Not a joke.
Pete would probably spend a meeting just to hang out with him.
Interesting to me that the Seahawks posted an AR hype video on their official channel.
YouTube? Did they delete it? I don’t see it
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/RtWeL8uprfI
The Ravens are the scary one here for me. If they manage to trade Lamar, they could use that ammunition to trade up with AZ and grab him. That could potentially mean QBs 1-4. I guess the same could be said with ATL, Vegas, and Tennessee.
Thankfully the savvy move for a team is a. Not to trade for Lamar for a ton of reasons or b. Wait until after the draft since the ravens and Lamar are stuck for now.
Before you get worked up over the Raiders trading up to #3, consider that Mark Davis has the same bowl-cut as Moe Howard from The Three Stooges.
Remember what Scott said about top 30 visits
The question is, are they interested because they think he might fall to them? Or are they interested because they might want to trade up and get him? Or both?
He needs a better agent, he has no business meeting with anybody other than Carolina. If somebody want’s to trade to #1, well, he’ll fit them in.
I see you’re from the Jalen Carter agent school. This would be terrible.
In regards to O’Torrence, I don’t know about the body type thing – I watched an interview with him the other day and he looked like a big kid that was in shape. The biggest thing for me is that he never gave up a sack in college, and was penalty free his senior year to boot. I’d much rather have a guy that does that than one that runs 0.1 second faster in the 40 and does 3 more reps on the bench. Bucky Brooks’ latest mock has him going 13th overall, so putting him in the 4th round seems ridiculous.
Helps when you have the most athletic quarterback in recent memory.
Bucky also had us taking Carter at 5. Again. And Richardson falling to 20.
He’s not a first round talent. He’ll get pushed up there because he was a preseason darling and those kids don’t fall in mock drafts. He got schooled in the Senior Bowl practices. Got pushed back to where the quarterback would be in almost every rep. Yet those were called wins for him.
We have bigger needs than that. Let someone else try to unlock that somehow.
Byron Young visited the Seahawks today, per Ian Rapoport
Alabama or Tennessee?
ten
Tennesee
Wow, free agency fell off a cliff. Thoughts on any available WR3 (Treadwell), OG (Wynn), DT (Robinson), and RB (Fournette)?
Barring some pretty seismic shifts, any FA’s are going to have to be dirt cheap.
I think Pete and John are hoping (as they often do) that our Culture will be enough to carry the day. Woods and Poona might be options if there is no market. Maybe Shelby as well, but I can’t see the numbers working.
For years we’ve struggled with how they’ve approached FA. Generally signing 2-3 average players instead of one good one. This year, they’ve spent up on Dre’Mont, Love, Bobby and Reed. All of the signings make sense and most were applauded, but it’s left our cap situation strapped. A move like trading Fant really only balances the budget.
I don know they aren’t done at veteran DL. Mone is out for awhile. We can’t go into the year with only Dre’Mont, Reed, Adams and a cast of rookies as our “Bigs”.
Lots of projects here.
Dre’mont did nothing in 2022 as soon as Chubb was dealt to Miami. Reed is maxxed out as being servicable, Bobby on his farewell tour.
The Love signing is really my favorite move, possibly of the last five seasons.
Well, we’ve got no money as of now anyways. Might be better to wait and see who else gets cut after the draft.
Hi Rob, on your draft board you differentiate between EDGE/OLB, DE and 3-4 DE. Could you please elaborate a wee bit on those types and which would fit the current Seahawks defense the best? Thank you very much and have a nice holiday! Stefan
While it’s nice to hear some of our local Radio & Twitter start to accept Richardson as a legitimate option; It blows my mind how anti-Will Levis they are.
In any scenario with Levis at #5, they alway go Carter, Wilson, or trade down.
Too many lemmings out there….
Was nice to hear KJ totally against a Carter pick though.
It is very odd to me how slanted the discussions or on Levis/AR vs. Stroud/Young. Young is a great passer but the concerns about his size are legitimate, and I assume plenty of owners still cling to their ideas of a “prototype” passer. Stroud is a fabulous player as well but teams should rightfully be a little concerned with his performance under pressure, considering how much more frequently he’ll be pressured in the pros compared to his clean pockets in college behind 5-star recruits throwing to multiple first round receivers. I also don’t necessarily think he’s a “system player” but it’s worth at least acknowledging that their system does tend to produce very favorable results for QBs, and I can’t think of any OSU QB who has ever had success as a passer in the NFL.
I very much believe Stroud and Young will be great players and are deserve to go 1-2, but it’s insane to me how little scrutiny they’ve received compared to AR and Levis. Every year the media picks a handful of players to pump up to the moon and another handful to relentlessly beat down. Like how is it that Carter still gets a pass for being partially responsible for multiple deaths, but Levis gets mocked out of the first round because he posted shirtless mirror picks on Twitter?
They were both top recruits. Same as the two from Clemson. That makes their names better known and easier to keep up on draft boards.
Carter was also a 5 star recruit.
Show me: “Malik Willis’ skills don’t bode well for Malik Willis.”
Totally agreee.
Just to give you an example of these talking heads. Many were predicting early in the draft. In fact one commentator had him going two overall. Really.
Rob nailed it on Malik Willis
“Don’t fall for the hype
Twitter exploded yesterday with people sharing a video of Malik Willis throwing at his pro-day. One throw in particular gained a lot of traction. Willis did the usual trick that quarterbacks like to do these days — running one way, throwing off-balance across your body and launching it downfield. It’s a throw made popular by Zach Wilson and everyone seems to copy it now.
People were reacting to the throw declaring he could/should be the #2 pick to Detroit. Carolina, Atlanta and Seattle were all mentioned too.
The hype train had truly left the station.
Unfortunately, so had everyone’s rational thinking.
Pro-days are the single most overrated event for quarterbacks. They mean absolutely nothing. Willis being able to throw that football in a pair of shorts and a T-shirt, with no defense on the field, means nothing.
If you asked Drew Lock to copy that exact same throw tomorrow in Seattle’s practise facility, he’d be able to do it.
You never watch a pro-day and make any kind of serious judgement. At the absolute best it acts as confirmation.
Zach Wilson’s tape at BYU last year was really good. When he excels at his pro-day, it’s just another tick in a box. The Jets liked him before the event, they liked him after.
The same goes for Willis, albeit in reverse.
His issues don’t suddenly go away because he throws that pass or because he was wonderfully charming in his press conference afterwards. I wish him all the very best in his career and hope he goes as high as possible. The truth is though — he too often makes one read and if it isn’t there he bails out of the pocket to run. He refuses to throw over middle. Under pressure he panics and tries to scramble — which is why he absorbed 51 sacks in 2021 alone. He misses wide open receivers due to impatience and letting his eyes drop. His throwing technique (release, ball-pat, non-squared shoulders and inconsistent base) will lead to turnovers.”
My biggest headache: Anthony Richardson is Malik Willis and Levis is Lock. Tell me that you don’t watch tape without just flat out saying it. I’ve seen those takes for weeks.
This is SO right
I had Seahawks fan tell me yesterday that Richardson was Jamarcus Russell. You’d really have to think long and hard to come up with a worse player comp than that.
Pay the iron price with Houston. Game over. OR they like Hooker a lot and can take Anderson.
Is just an FYI and probably for a good laugh Colin cowherd is going to do his one and only mock draft starting at 10 AM Pacific time which is 10 minutes from now. Hes already been on the
Pete Carroll can handle a problem player and thanks Carter will go to Seattle possibly train this morning.
Write it out on here if you can
I bet he’s another Carter at 5 truther
1. Young
2. Stroud
3. Carter
4. Raiders trade up with Indy and take Levis
5. Anderson
Don’t remember after that (someone else help…I’m in the car) except to say NO Richardson in top 10
He only did 10
How awesome would it be if AZ did take Carter?
Do remember that he had Indy taking Paris Johnson at 7 vuz you know, they don’t need a QB. Like I said “a good laugh”.
6. Miles Murphy
7. Paris
8. Gonzalez
9. Tyree
10. Skoronski
His statement on Paris Johnson was that Indy is in the Lamar sweepstakes and can take a QB later.
Has it ever happened that top 4 picks were QBs?
How about all top 4 QBs being successful in pro, did that ever happen?
Are there any QBs in current top 4 that need a good situation to succeed and who are the QBs that can thrive irrespective of the situation and elevate?
No
Not yet
All 4 need the right situation to succeed.
Hmmm. MAYBE we have bigger needs, but right now we have Phil Haynes starting at RG, so it’s a pretty solid need. Y’all continually say we need to draft a QB at 5, a position where we have a Pro Bowler and a recent 2nd round pick as a backup, yet guard isn’t a need at 20 or 37?
Oh, and I’m not a believer in Brooks’ mock, but Carter at 5 and Richardson at 20 is 10000x more plausible than Torrence dropping to the 4th.
Sometimes I read comments and just let out a big sigh.
Well, I didn’t say Torrence would drop to the fourth. That’s my own personal grade on the player.
But there’s zero chance Richardson drops to #20. There’s not zero chance Torrence lasts longer than people think.
A Pro Bowler who is 33, has one good season on his resume, and the Seahawks intentionally built outs and protections into his contract so they can escape it with ease.
And nobody’s saying it’s a “need.” It’s the highest value move they can make with their top pick aside from Will Anderson.
The value ratio of a QB over a RG is massive. The logic should be obvious.
Nobody is saying Torrence is dropping to the 4th round.
I am guessing you are referring to Rob’s board, which is not a mock draft. It’s a valuation of the player. Rob is saying in essence if someone drafts Torrence in the first round, that is not good value.
If the Seahawks want to spend #20 on a RG there are far, far better options than Torrence. Wright and Dawand may be available and would give them flexibility at RT should they need it. And they’re just better than Torrence.
“Y’all continually say we need to draft a QB at 5, a position where we have a Pro Bowler and a recent 2nd round pick as a backup, yet guard isn’t a need at 20 or 37?”
Yes, we have a 33 year old Pro Bowler at QB who was one of the worst QBs in the league for most of his 10 year career prior to last year and is very likely in line for a severe regression, and whose contract makes it extremely easy to move on from him in a year or two. And honestly, who even cares about Lock at this point? He’s on a 1 year, incentive-laden deal suitable for a backup, and probably won’t be with the team beyond that. He’s also 26 and has shown very little ability to be a starter in this league so far. Even if Geno gets hurt and somehow Lock lights it up, you’re stuck once again having to hand out a big QB contract, so he is absolutely not a long-term answer either.
Guard is a need but not one of our bigger needs. We have two competent if uninspiring starters. The quality of guard prospects at 20 and 37 in this draft just aren’t good, and forcing a pick for need at those spots ensures you’re getting a terrible value. Idk what is so hard to believe about that. You can’t just manifest an All Pro guard prospect at 20 because you want it, and spending a first round pick with the 5th year option on a low-ceiling prospect at a low-value position is just a horrible way to run a franchise.
Furthermore, Lock only has 1.75 guaranteed. If we go QB at 5 and whoever we pick earns the backup spot, that’s 2.25 mil they can save against the cap.
They might do that if they draft Levis, but not if they draft Richardson.
Richardson needs a red shirt year. He can’t have a red shirt year and also be the backup
Maybe drafting for need, ignoring positional value, is a great way to draft in the top 5 each year, y’all.
I posted this video above, but I will post it again.
https://youtu.be/DG7fQAN0iLA
Torrence is getting rocked in these drills. Avila and Broeker look good, both should be available late R2 or R3. Ekiyor should be there in R3 as well.
The point though is that Guard really isn’t a consideration until after R3.
If you really want to go the OL route, suggest Dawand Jones, Wright, Bergeron, and kick Abe Lucas inside. Hard to imagine them outperforming Abe though.
https://www.nfl.com/news/lance-zierlein-2023-nfl-mock-draft-3-0-ravens-select-c-j-stroud-after-trade-patr
Tyree Wilson to Houston at #2
Baltimore trades Lamar to Indy and takes Stroud at #4
Seahawks take Carter at #5, Miles Murphy at #20
Houston trades up to #7 to get Will Levis
New England takes AR at #14
And Florio is all in on Carter.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/04/04/jalen-carter-pushes-back-against-the-pre-draft-process-more-top-prospects-should/
Don’t you know he was right to refuse to show up for a multimillion dollar job interview? How dare a team want to personally speak with the person that represents a massive investment!
The NFL Draft Industrial Complex something something evil empire something something stop picking on poor Jalen Carter.
I detest this timeline. I really do
Florio has been banging this drum for awhile, and I can see his point. I just think Carter is a lousy poster-boy for his movement. Nowhere does Florio admit the kid is on tape LYING about racing after he was in fact racing his buddy and assistant coach, who both perished as a result of said racing. Carters racing with them is a big part of why they died.
Someone with such a looming problem, plus his recurring conditioning problems and his proclivity to show up late to meetings all through school, added to his pathetic Oro Day performance should make the entire NFL leery of paying this kid big money.
Submitting to poking, prodding and questioning is a small, reasonable price to pay for the huge guarantee a top 10 pick gets. Teams aren’t unreasonable to want to check him out thoroughly before giving him millions.
However, too many armchair talent scouts/draft “experts” get pissy if a prospect doesn’t do all the silly testing the NFL wants, because selfishly they want that info to pump up their own “abilities” and ego. Those athletes owe them nothing.
Every test an athlete engages in is an opportunity to get injured and lose money. Just ask Sydney Jones. NFL should offer 10 million in injury guarantees for every participant, especially if they want stupid shit, like having an Olineman run a 40.
So I’m on board with some of what Florio is on about.
But making excuses for that kid turning in a sad Pro Day is ridiculous. He could have turned his stress (caused by his own poor choices) into fuel to get in shape, but he couldn’t be bothered. Carter is no poster boy for anything except What Not To Do.
I agree the pre draft process is a joke.
The Combine is run poorly. Participation has suffered. There’s little transparency about interview, and arcane, weird rules about how many you can have.
The lack of centralization of process means there are multitudes of variations on the themes of testing and interviewing. It also gives rise to a sort of middle man market where access and participation in the process gets polluted. It leaves a bad taste in everyone’s mouth.
I think the lack of any draft process grade for prospects furthers the opportunity for disdain among prospects. I’m talking a grade for how a prospect approaches and navigates the draft process itself. Which players refuse to test without a medical excuse? Which players won’t interview?
That’s hard to do when the process itself is so fractured and decentralized. And I think this does a major disservice to prospects and teams alike.
In this way, I fully support an overhaul of the entire process.
Does Florio think he’s leading a revolution or something? What nonsense.
Sometimes it does feel like Florio thinks he’s Che Guevara
Too bad he’s more the guy that buys a che Guevara t-shirt.
I’d buy a Cha Guevara shirt
Do it! As long as you don’t think you’re raging against the very machine that makes you .only and puts you on aur on Sunday night to talk about how great it’s product is.
The only thing a CHA Guevara shirt is going to make me rage against is the latest salary cap implications of probably Jamal Adams 😂
I wonder how that works at Florio’s own entity?
Could I just skip a job interview?
Could a producer just say “listen my work speaks for itself?”
I get he’s trying yo be edgy in his way but this take is brain dead. Teams need to know who they are drafting.
Maybe colleges should stop scouting high schoolers. Just put everyone’s name in a hat and be more egalitarian and everyone should just draw at random?
Why do medicals? What’s the point? Just draft players with deteriorating knees and bad hearts and hope it works. Athritisis and fusing of the spine….meh….game on.
Character, fit, attitude doesn’t matter. We’re all winners in this team.
I like florio but I *love* his faux contrarian stick it to the man energy where he’s also curiously made his livelihood out of the very “machine,” he pretends to fight.
Florio answered Drew Rosenhaus’ call then…
Florio as a guy earning his “chicken” by talkkng about NFL gossip argues a little bit like one of those central Tennessee hillbillies complaining about the Military Industrial Complex while retaining an armstore full of guns at home.
You can definitely tell that it’s the dead, boring time leading up to the draft….
For sure. This is def an “interesting stuff is over but we still need to drive site traffic for 3 more weeks” clickbait mock.
This.
Well the NFL is supposed to be an entertainment business. If the Seahawks at 1.5 pass on Levis and AR and take Carter then the SDB board be insane. Most of the posters, including myself, would be very upset with the Cater pick beleiving that he is an obvious bust and not understanding why the Seahawks would take that huge risk.
Some would be on here dunking on us about how Carter is immature but the most talented palyer in the draft. Also how we have overated AR and Levis saying they aren’t any good and this would be their proof.
Thankfully there’s as much chance of them taking Carter at #5 as there is me swimming the Atlantic
With the “Seahawks trading up to 3 to take Richardson” rumor going around, that made me think of the rollercoaster of emotions we’d all experience the next two years:
Draft day
Cardinals fans hate that they delivered a top QB to their rival
vs
Cardinals fans who think it’s genius they got the guy at 5 they would’ve taken at 3 and added badly needed stock
Seahawks fans who think Geno is The Answer and a QB is a waste
vs
Seahawks fans who are elated that they landed maybe the most physically gifted player in draft history
Week One
All Cardinals fans deliriously happy that Will Anderson looks the part of a top pass rusher
Seahawks fans howling that they need more DL
vs
Seahawks fans knowing it’s going to be a long year of arguments about Carter vs Richardson
Week Eighteen
All Cardinals fans deliriously happy at Anderson’s DROY season
Seahawks Richardson fans bored of hearing how he’s a wasted pick and the calls for Geno to stay
All Offseason
Cardinals fans crowing that they’ve picked the Seahawks’ pocket
Seahawks fans endlessly debating what to do with Geno and Richardson
Mid-season 2024
Seahawks fans elated they’ve found their next franchise QB and who cares about the pick they spent to move up
Cardinals fans ‘oh god, what have we done?’
Cha I love your work
Lance, I love your work
But oof
It’s a really weird mock, from top to bottom
Which mock?
The Zierlein mock
If anyone wants to throw up in their mouth a little:
https://www.nfl.com/news/lance-zierlein-2023-nfl-mock-draft-3-0-ravens-select-c-j-stroud-after-trade-patr
That’s a decent workout. But then, we always knew Murphy’s a plus athlete.
I still don’t want him for Seattle
Meh. Good numbers but not elite. Nothing that’s going to make you forget about his exceedingly mediocre production.
His forty and split are definitely elite at 268lbs
But his 3-cone is very average, which is arguably a more important measure at his position.
Eh. Decent. But give me Ade at 20 over him.
That vert is honestly kinda weird. If he’s got a sub 1.6 split and a very just over 30 inches…that makes me think their timers aren’t very good.
In fairness vertical jumps test explosive power and the split is really about burst and get-off
I like how mock drafts are entirely optimistic. Realistically, half the players in round one won’t make it. Imagine if instead of writing this:
20. Seattle Seahawks, Myles Murphy
Uchenna Nwosu’s contract is due to expire after the 2023 season. Murphy can slide right into one of the edge spots and immediately upgrade Seattle’s run defense while potentially rushing inside on sub-packages.
Zierlien had written this:
20. Seattle Seahawks, Myles Murphy
Murphy tries to slide into an edge spot, immediately fails at run defense, and gets only a half sack the rest of the season while rushing inside on sub-packages. Uchenna Nwosu inks a new contract after the 2023 season.
Yep, I agree with you man, lots of uncertainty with all of these players. As we’ve all seen, very high draft picks occasionally fail to become even adequate starting players, let alone all-pros. And then you have mid round picks like Sherman, Wilson, Woolen (so far), turn into stars.
Some teams are clearly better talent evaluators than others, but they all make some draft mistakes, and they also find some diamonds in the rough.
Here’s to hoping John and staff do as well as last year. If they can equal that success, we should be a very competitive team by 2024 or so!
Myles Murphy will “immediately upgrade Seattle’s run defense”. Ummm, no.
Rob, how hard is it to not bang your head against the wall every time you see a national writer’s mock drafts? My goodness, most of the professionals are so bad and off the mark. Keep up the fantastic work! We appreciate you!
I would imagine Murphy falls into the same category of awkward fit for a 3-4 as Tyree Wilson does?
Too big for OLB.
Oh my, what if AZ has #3 forfeited
https://theathletic.com/4377683/2023/04/04/arizona-cardinals-nfl-arbitration-demand-michael-bidwill/?source=user_shared_article
For those who can’t get past the paywall, Bidwell used a burner phone to communicate with Kevin while he was suspended, and also retaliated against the employee who reported it.
Wow! I haven’t heard a word about this story until now, they’ve definitely kept it pretty far under the rug! Keep us posted if you here more, although I doubt the NFL would take this high of a pick from a team.
What did the Dolphins do?
Seems unfair to not take a pick ‘because it is so high’
More likely the league is trying its best to keep Bidwell in line because he is one of the key bad actors in the black coaches Class Action – taking pick #3 might set him off.
Very interesting that this story is breaking right now…and what a bad look for the owner there. I’m assuming you meant Keim and not Kevin!
Yup, autocorrect fail. Keim!
The draft is three weeks away, there’s zero chance they take that pick away.
Why?
I guarantee it is on the table with the NFL Brass, Bidwell is a problem for them.
Because 3 weeks isn’t nearly enough time for the arbitration process.
There’s also the fact that the NFL made one team forfeit their first round draft pick this year. There’s no chance they would do that to two teams in the same draft. That’s a horrible look for the league and won’t help ratings.
Future sanctions of punishments? Sure. But not now.
I don’t see how it would be a bad look. A bad look would be sweeping it further under the rug with no obvious transparent repercussions
Dang, all over the news now.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/36069257/ex-cardinals-vp-terry-mcdonough-accuses-owner-cheating
Most likely way too early in the process for them to forfeit #3 though.
Yeah, I saw somewhere that the Cards have 30 days to respond. They will go up as close to the draft that they can, just in case.
I’d throw the 1st and maybe a 3rd at them next year and tell them that it might be the only first round pick they have hahaha.
This might actually be worst case scenario if they think there going to lose a first next year then that would be huge incentive to trade down far enough to get a 2024 first and then there goes the top 4 QBs, at least it’s worst case scenario if your on the QB train like I am
Unfortunately, McDonoughs suit will play out in Arbitration, the Leagues Kangaroo Court. The NFL will pay to shut everyone up, and chances are they won’t strip the Cards of a high pick: Goodell and company would rather keep that quiet and let them off easy rather than advertise the Cards Owners behavior–because just like Snyder’s behavior, it’s not limited to one or two owners, it’s rampant. Goodell and the owners will do anything to keep that quiet.
Would never happen that quickly. The arbitration won’t even happen for months.
It might affect future drafts (which might affect how Arizona approaches this draft)
Probably why the Cards org issued a statement saying it was Bidwell who stopped the burner phone scheme.
The complainant says he has receipts though, and the NFL just jettisoned one headache owner. The allegations agains Bidwell are pretty bad, although the Flores allegations grabbed the headlines.
Rob, do you have any thoughts on DJ Johnson out of Oregon?
28 pressures, 21 hurries and 5 sacks in 2022.
He was a converted TE and has some nice athleticism. Was #4 of Feldman’s Freaks list between Miles Murphy and Will McDonald.
“Johnson had a dominant showing in the Ducks’ spring game, making five TFLs and four sacks. Those numbers are as jaw-dropping as the results the 6-4, 275-pounder has produced in the Oregon training program, posting a blazing 22.88 mph on the GPS to go with a 455-pound bench and 655-pound sumo deadlift.”
His 40 and bench were great, but his jumps and short-area quickness drill… not so much.
He had a formal interview with the Chiefs and Colts (informal w/ Dallas) at the combine.
YaYa Diaby is another who didn’t make the big board, but I wondered if you had seen.
6’3 263lbs
31 pressures, 16 hurries & 9 sacks this year.
This bit from his combine testing:
“YaYa Diaby’s 1.56 10-yard split at 263 lbs was simply ridiculous as was his 4.51 forty. Georgia OLB Nolan Smith’s 1.52 10-yard is highly impressive but he’s 25 lbs lighter. Diaby’s other drills also tested super high – all in the 95th percentile for his position. He earned himself some serious money with that performance!”
Diaby is 4th round talent in Rob’s big board and DJ Johnson is in the 5-7 round range.
Thank you. I totally missed it. Scrolled down LB and DE and didn’t see them. Missed the other column completely when looking for their names.
Yaya Diaby is one of my favorite mid/late round players. Pretty amazing altjetoc profile which reminds me of a player I really wants the Seahawks to draft a few years ago; Josh Sweat.
Diaby and Johnson are both on the board
Johnson didn’t test anywhere near as well as expected which put me off a bit
I watched some tape last night and he looked like he took a lot of plays off. Was disappointed in his motor and impact in what I saw.
Daniel Jeremiah accidentally (maybe) leaked that Bryce Young scored highest in class on the S2 Cognition test.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PanthersAnalyst/status/1643252231502966784
https://twitter.com/PanthersAnalyst/status/1643254025197068291?t=tYp1Zs0M9dGa5qe7SdHIPw&s=19
Even better tidbit in that same thread. Last year’s class was the worst scoring ever… This year is the best.
We’re in the perfect position at a year when every new bit of information that comes in says, get one of these damn quarterbacks. They better find a way to make it happen…
Love how Lance tweeted even his family texting him “Dad, what was that mock?”. Lol.
(And let’s see if he replies to Rob’s question with some inside info.)
Rob, how do you end up decided where on your big board a player lands? I get that it’s constantly evolving as you review more tape or new workout information is available. I know you’ll take media/league speculation/confirmation into account but ultimately, you’ll agree or disagree based on your own criteria.
Is it trait based? Where players with similar body types or 10 yd shuttle times have gone in previous drafts? How do you opt to determine what separates a 2nd rounder from a third rounder? A third rounder from a 5th rounder, etc?
Thanks for the content!
I’ll be taking a break from all Seahawks media(except SDB) until after the draft . The brain dead takes from this fan base are maddening. I was listening to Sea Hawkers and Adam went on his usual rant about how it would be stupid for the Seahawks to grab a QB at #5. The most frustrating thing about that side of the fan base is when you point out the QBs who made it work( Allen, Hurts, Lamar), their default answer is “ they’re the exception, not the rule”.
I don’t know this one? Or who Adam is.
Didn’t they used to have 3in and 3out? I always thought that one was fun. Brandon Schultz and Clinton Bonner?
Every time I start to tap out, I remind myself how hard it was to get the Seahawks on the TV in the 90s (bribe the bartender) or the number of times I had to go 2/3 on 10/20 with 49ers/Steelers/Cowboys/Broncos fans.
Growing pains suck, I still believe this is the best fan base in the NFL, we all just need to bring the other people around.
Daniel Jeremiah made a good point on Pat McAfee on Jalen Carter.
His agent limiting the visits to the top-10 teams only points to someone in the 10-15 range telling his agent that he’s not getting past them. DJ says it’s the Eagles, between the DL depth, culture and former Georgia teammates on the team.
Makes sense.
That tells me how stupid Carter is. Weird things happens on draft day, by not respecting other teams he is limiting his opportunity and future. He has already enough red flags add one more.
Florio and Simms speculating today him to Philly for the same reasons.
The Eagles have Jordan Davis ready to step in who is the exact opposite of Jalen Carter. They need a RB or a TE. Mayer or Bijan for me here.
I think my favorite Tight End in this draft is Sam LaPorta. I would be excited to hear his name called with one of our second round picks.
Trade Noah Fant for the cap space.
I’m a big fan of LaPorta.
Hey! I’m not the only one! I like Tucker Kraft as well. Little bit bigger than Laporta but also moves well. I think Washington is getting a little over hyped. I think people forget we already have a giant te(Parkinson).
I like LaPorta and I’d be down with him a little later. More like after a trade down from 83 or a trade up from 123.
Somewhere at the back of Day 2 or early Day 3.
Well that’s that
I’m happy for him. Maybe he will get a chance to shine there. One of the few players I enjoyed watching on Defense for us. Definition of a gamer. Loves ball.
Us getting Love makes this a bit easier to swallow, but I feel like we let a really good and underrated player get away on the cheap.
So we could’ve dumped Diggs and/or Adams and paid for Neal and Love with just one of their salaries?
I just don’t the Moneyball in what they’ve done with Neal (or obviously other players).
Yup. And just to rub salt in the wound, the safety market is currently tanking.
Diggs has been nothing short of excellent for us. Sometimes you have to pay and keep good players happy. Until his play falls off a cliff he’s worth what he provides our FS spot. Best since we had Earl Thomas.
Jamal they must know something about his health. Perhaps he will surprise is in a good way this season. Yes, he’s expensive. This year will be crucial for him. He will play his butt off. Could go either way – health vs production.
I admire your optimism. Don’t agree at all but good for you.
Btw, everything we’ve heard about Adams is he physically won’t be ready for camp and may well not be for the start of the season.
How much doe that even matter? He’s either been out of place, getting lost blitzing, or getting the occasional sack. They kept him partially from stubbornness and partially to try to salvage what they could.
And Diggs has easily been the best since Earl. And then he got hurt and fell off of said cliff. Maybe he was staring to come back at the end of year. Either way, he’s overpaid per the current market, didn’t have a good year, and didn’t get fully healthy.
Certainly looks like they cut the wrong safety. Neal has gotten better and better the last 3 years, and would’ve had a small reasonable contract.
JA has played in 25 of a possible 50 regular season games since we made the terrible trade for him 3 years ago, and we could’ve saved 8 mil. against the cap by cutting him with a June 1 designation.
Total bummer man, not that the hawks need to invest more at S. I liked the Love signing but did that prevent another signing at a different position when Neal could’ve been had for cheaper?
Thanks Jamal. Gift that never stops giving. Seriously don’t understand the sunk cost fallacious mindset with this franchise.
Simple man: Pete still trying to salvage the trade. Call it ego, call it desperation, call it whatever you want. I call it insanity.
And if the team didn’t have the waste of roster space and cap space Jamal Adams, Neal would still be a Hawk.
It wasn’t a lot of money they let Neal walk for. And we know they’re gonna need more safeties.
Seems like they have a rookie solution in mind. And with this safety class, that’s ok with me.
Nothing will rid us of the stench of the rotting corpse that is the Adams trade until he’s gone. Even if he recovers and plays well, he’ll never earn his cap hit.
You’re quite likely correct about a rookie tho I’m not as ok as you cuz Neal was a pretty good player and it won’t be easy for a rookie to match that.
As for “the stench of the rotting corpse of the Adams trade” I of course 100% agree and what a great way to describe it my man.
Biggest bummer of FA, can’t believe we did not manage to keep him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzHnRf6iXRM&t=20s
The 33rd team’s Palmer reviews QB DTR.
Noticed an inaccurate statement underneath the title. Before it says hosted by and founded by it states “The best football insider content on the internet.”
That’s wrong. It’s clearly here. Without a doubt.
Raiders signing Hoyer might mean they’re out of the rookie QB market
Any more than the Hawks signing Lock?
Well, it’s a 2 year deal instead of one, and obviously depends on what Hoyer’s making/guaranteed money. He’s also 37 years old. And at this point, three weeks from the draft, why not wait till after the draft? I image we had to sign Lock so early so he wouldn’t sign elsewhere.
So what I’m really saying is, who knows!
I think it’s like how the Seahawks have Geno & Drew. Jimmy G and Hoyer should t prevent the Raiders from drafting a potential franchise QB. But I hope the Raiders don’t trade up and take one.
They are scheduled to have Richardson and Levis in for top 30 visits this week. I think they’re interested in both and 37 year old Hoyer and oft-injured Jimmy G wouldn’t prevent them from drafting one of them at #7, but they may be less inclined to trade up to #3 now (hopefully).
I think the causal fan doesn’t understand the importance of back up QBs or what it is they do.
Or they’re signing a backup to go after Richardson and redshirt him
Cody Thompson returning. WR3 solved….j/k.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/04/04/seahawks-sign-cody-thompson/
Between him and a healthy Eskridge, we are loaded at WR3. Not enough balls to go around in this O!
Don’t forget Dareke Young. JS said on a show last year he’s our future Deebo.
“Healthy Eskridge”
Isn’t that an oxymoron?
Yes, as in Prevent Defense
😀
I dunno, seems like Prevent Defense does exactly what its name implies
And the strategy for that is to tackle your own guys, like Diggs and Barton do, and to make sure you get injured, like Adams.
Honestly, looking at this board I would pass on this year’s wide receiver class altogether. There are better picks to be had where everyone else is going to make a run on them.
Also, as someone else noted, the paradigm is shifting in the NFL about slot receivers/cornerbacks.
Hmmmm… Interested to know who the “different people” are.
I wonder if John is willing to cough up next year’s R1 to move up to #3, keeping all the rest of this year’s picks? If a future 1 is worth a 2 this year, it might be equitable. AZ still gets a top 5 pick this year, very possibly the same guy they would take at #3, and round 1 insurance next year. Seattle gets to move up for their QBOTF without fear of being sniped by another team and still has #20, #37, and #52 and all the rest to work with.
With Bidwell likely to cost his team a first round forfeit next year, AZ might just be interested.
That’s an interesting take. I don’t know if they’re thinking that far ahead, but their options would be: (A) Get an extra first next year so they’ll still have one when one is taken away. (B) Trade away next years first (and the one after that, and the one after that) so they can’t ever take it away!
Oooooh, wouldn’t it be a laugh if Goodell banned them from trading any future draft picks until the pending investigation and arbitration process is complete?
The team I’m most worried about competing with Seattle is Tennessee. It would bump Arizona out of the top 10 (barely) but they would get more of a haul than I imagine Seattle would be willing to give up – I saw a hypothetical trade by PFF and it would be #11, #72, 2024 R1, 2025 R1 and considering what SF gave up to move up to #3 from #12 that sounds about right.
Really hope that’s not the move. AR most likely can’t solve all their problems and they are not the niners with a mostly stacked roster.
Good luck getting better with a raw qb and missing out on their future.
I covet AR but I’m not giving up a 2024 1st for a move up. Be willing to give up #5 and #37 for #3. I’d even be willing to move #20 instead of #37, if AZ coughed up a mid round pick this or next draft but I’m not touching our 2024 #1. I’d rather draft Levis at #5 if AR and Anderson have gone than give up any future picks.
I don’t disagree, but we’ve proven to be a-ok with coughing up future first round picks in the past. At least this time we’d be doing it to secure our QBOTF instead of a safety.
If you buy into the draft value calculators and believe the Seahawks are a playoff contender or close next year, then our 2024 R1 is worth less than this year’s #20 or #37.
But in that first instance, it’s rationalizing a bad move because you’ve previously made a WORSE move.
Also, I do think that draft slot values are legit, as it provides a set worth for the positions. That said, what those calculations don’t take into account is team needs and the availability of the draft class to meet those needs, in a given year. We know what the perceived strengths of this class are, so we can assess a proper value to the positions based on how long we think certain draftees will last. If this season plays out and we know that we desperately need a certain position improved in the 2024 draft but that position is weak outside the first couple of players, having given away our first pick for a two slot bump this year could really bone us.
Hindsight will always be 20/20, but I feel like, after the top 4 QBs and Anderson, the meat of this draft is to be had between #20 and #102. I want as many picks in that range this year as we can get. We could address multiple needs on both sides of the ball with very quality prospects. The TE and RB depth alone is just ridiculous.
No one knows what next year’s class is really going to look like, but we have a pretty good idea of what we’re looking at this year. If I was a GM sitting on a pick in the teens this year. I’d be looking to trade down at the right opportunity to secure more players in the first three rounds.
Then count on your excellent scouting to land you some later round gems later, as always.
I would give it up in a heart beat (if the fo believes in him) we have wasted 1sts for sooooooo much less over the past 10 years.
This is my suspicion as well. #5 and ’24 1st for #3. That’s more than fair for both sides.
We could then trade back from 20 a bit and gain an extra 3rd or 4th to sort of offset that loss of pick next ear.
Hit on a second amazing draft class this year and then next year be more of a free agent/role player draft with money coming off books, to fill in a championship roster.
Profit
Just some thoughts on the Hawks and the safety position.
I listened to a podcast recently that dove pretty deep in the woods with scheme and formation. My big takeaway was that the slot DB is a thing of the past. Offenses have schemed running plays so that they will take advantage of a small quick DB by running at him. The big nickel is the defensive answer and I think Cobe Bryant is a small as they want to go and don’t love it.
The current personnel and moves by the front office are leading me to think that 3-3-5 and even 2-4-5 formations might be common when Jamal is healthy. Pete said that the 3 safeties would be on the field together quite a bit. Recall that they had Neal and brought in Jonathan Abrams as well last year.
For better or worse, it seems that Seattle has decided to veer into this multiple safety approach. Based on the visits we’ve had, I’d also assume that we aren’t done and will be drafting at least one. I think they will certainly consider moving on from Jamal and Diggs next year, if for no other reason that financially. We have an astonishing $45M+ tied to those two and Love.
If they want to continue to run a significant amount of 3 safety looks and have the ability to move on from one or both of Adams and Diggs, they’ll need replacements. Seeing the safety market not keeping pace with other positions, maybe feels like an exploitable area. There are dozens of safeties set to hit FA next year.
Really good take here. Thanks. I think we can all expect to see a shitload of 3-3-5 and 2-4-5 next year. Current personnel practicaly guarantees it.
But by all accounts Adams won’t be ready for camp and may well not be ready for the start of the season. With Neal no longer a Seahawk I think its pretty obvious they’ll take a guy in the draft. At the very least they’ll need depth and hopefully that guy is much better than that.
One of the most under the radar things we saw last year was Bryant’s use on the defense outside of the traditional nickel spot roles.
During that great defensive stretch they used him – believe it or not – to set the edge at times and he wasn’t half bad. He set the edge and had a drive killing tackle on Barkley in the NYG game, and was used at the spot often in the Charger game.
He also was effective in a small blitzing role.
In 12 blitzes, he had 2 sacks, 4 pressures and 4 TFL.
Jamal Adams’ All-Pro 2020 season? 98 blitzes, 9.5 sacks, 26 pressures and 11 TFL.
In 1/8th the sample size, he was more effective at disruption.
PC loves a nickel who can disrupt. But he doesn’t use it much. Maybe he will with Bryant.
Teams expected it more with Adams though. Bryant’s use was catching teams off guard. Otherwise wouldn’t they have blitzed him all the time?
Absolutely.
Great points. I think that’s the role they had envisioned for Adams. Bryant filled in admirably, but he’s giving up 20 pounds on Jamal and how often do you want your 190 lb corner setting the edge?
Maybe Love fills the nickel in Cover 1 or Bear front and Cobe fills it for the traditional nickel/dime.
Ade Ade to visit with Seattle per Aaron Wilson.
Love to see it!
Thanks for sharing. Just hoping we get 1 of 4 top QB. Looking at other news / forum it should be easy. May be GMs know better than us to be in panic mode. Like JS must be sure Arizona will not trade down from 3 to 7 and risk WIll Anderson.
Richardson/Levis and Ade Ade would a hell of a first round for us. Just sayin.
Richardson/Levis and Ade Ade/ Will McDonald will be ideal start in first round, and I’m sure it will happen if they are available.
If I had to choose between McDonald vs Ade…I think I have to go with Ade. There’s something unique in his game that I think could be special in the league.
Coming on Thursday…
An interview with Chris Rodriguez
From Dubai .. working during vacation
Sweet! Looking forward to it.
We could use a bruiser like him.
Two things from the SDB community, if you get a chance. Condolences for his Mom, who passed in January. Congratulations on his engagement.
*He mentioned both in his combine interview.
Hell yeah. Blog favorite from last year. He and kenneth walker could be perfet.
If there ever was a doubt, that Rob can’t help himself.
Pumped for this, one of my wish list players for the Hawks.
Maybe a reunion with Levis?
Yes! Good work Rob!
Cool! Looking forward to it. Hope you are enjoying soaking up the sun with the family!!
I see that we have the least effective cap space in the NFL right now at -$3.6M.
Cha – does this sound right, as a thought exercise?
Lockett: $9.7M base salary this year.
Convert,$7.5M to bonus that spreads over 3 remaining years. Would add $2.5M in dead money to 24 and 25 and free up $5M in cap?
Follow up: If we sign, say – DT, Armon Watts to a vet minimum (1.08M for 4 year vet), that drops our 51st contract off the cap calculation ($750k), so our cap only drops by $258k? After that our 51st becomes Tyreke Smith at $830k, and a similar vet signing would only hit for $178k?
Assuming my follow up is right, we only need about $1M in cap space to sign 4 veteran minimum contracts?
Piggy backing on this:
Cha, cysco, others: ( mostly math folks)
Please help me word this as simply as possible….. the following:
If you draft based on pay and you trade down as much as possible turning 10 picks into 15-17 picks, while that might look cool on paper is actually a ridiculous way to build a roster and you should be fired for this thought process.
Because this is today’s dominant talking point. And I’m losing it.
Saving cap is the single dumbest reason for trading down.
It died as a viable idea when there was no rookie cap, but nobody worth their salt is even thinking about it now.
Now if only we could get fans to let it go…
Exactly right. There’s a little more they can do. The max they can convert is to take salary all the way down to veteran minimum. Lockett has 8 years in so the vet min is $1.165m. They can convert a max of $8.535m to bonus and pick up $5.69m in 2023 if they want.
Just a terminology thing, it’s not dead money until Lockett is cut or traded, so they’d call the $2.5m in 2024 and 2025 Bonus Proration.
Correct as it stands right now. The draft will change some things around if the Seahawks trade up or down, etc.
Also keep in mind that $3.6m in the red does not include practice squad players, if they max out that’s about $5.7m or so, call it $6m to be safe. So they need to find $9.6m of room. And if they want to make any other moves after the draft they’ll need more.
So, have you guys done your taxes yet?
April 18th is tax day!
I prepare taxes so I have had the 18th circled to go golf and disappear for a while.
And sleep. Until the draft hahaha.
I would think the 18th would be your busiest day!
It’s actually the 17th this year (15th is the due date but it’s on Saturday so it’s the next work day).
We try to have it all taken care of BEFORE the final day, but never fails. People will still be bringing their stuff in that day (and occasionally after).
Thanks Cha. Looks like we’d need to do one more move then as well. Nwosu extension maybe.
Maybe there is a handshake agreement with GB that if they don’t land a TE in Rd 1 or 2, we swing a deal for Fant? They have the cap space and the need.
Selfie SZN lives on…
https://mobile.twitter.com/PeteCarroll/status/1643406957418795008
If I were the marrying kind…
MSD posted a new draft at the Athletic, with trades included.
#5 AR 😎
#24 Sanders
#37 FAU
#45 Benton
#83 Wypler
#123 Ekiyor
#127 Zach Evans
#154 Jerrod Clark
#185 Tre Tucker (CIN)
#198 Diabate UT
I’ve seen Tre Tucker play and he is an intriguing inclusion. Nice to see a highly placed Seahawks reporter put out a draft like this.
The reasoning at 5 makes perfect sense
Sanders doesn’t really fit their LB profile now we have testing numbers
FAU is a reach in R2. Big reach.
Everything from Benton to R5 makes perfect sense and is well projected
One of the better mocks you’ll see I just think they will take different players instead of Sanders and FAU
I wonder how realistic it is to hope for Kancey and Ade Ade at #20 and #37?
AR, Kancey, Ade Ade, and Benton/Mazi/Center are what I’m hoping for.
The more I think about Kancey
1) he really doesn’t fit for the Hawks
2) he probably goes top 15
I think the Hawks go Mayer at 20ish pick if he is still on the board. Or Ade/McDonald. They are also selecting a safety.
I’m not as high on Mazi as everyone else. I’d bump him down a round and Cameron Young up in my own rankings. There are a lot of Day 2/Day 3 players I like at DL – project as solid NFL pros Pickens, Benton, Young (Ala), Young (Miss St), Coburn, Lacy… A lot of these guys are alpha dogs, high character leaders.
Why wouldn’t Kancey fit? He’d be a 3tech on passing downs
Situational pass rusher isn’t where we need to spend a high pick. You almost can’t play him in base IMO. Certainly not in that 2-4-5 look we used last year.
With how this this line is (currently), we need guys who can gap-control and eat up snaps. Get those guys later.
Kancey is just SUCH and outlier. He’s 281 with 30 1/2 inch arms. That’s like 4th and 0th percentile for DL.
To me, he is just not a fit for us. Hawks have always prioritized length. Where would Kancey fit on our DL? 6’1, 280 lb and short arms is the opposite of what you want for a DE. You want size and length.
I’m not trying to dump on him, if he’s your guy but watch the Tennessee game. I’ve seen that sack a few times, but the guard doesn’t even move on the snap like he had the wrong count. The rest of the game, Kancey is a complete non-factor.
I think the media is way off on him, and he’ll last well into round 2. Ade Ade isn’t much bigger, but his arms are 3 inches longer and that is a big deal. I’d much rather have him and Benton personally. I’d be pumped about those picks.
Walter at Walter Football is continuing to Mock all 4 QBs gone by #5. He has the Hawks getting:
#5 Anderson
#20 Kancey 🦖
#37 Hyatt (with Downs going later)
#52 LaPorta
#83 Jaylon Jones (got lazy after round 3, mainly filled holes for prospects he moved up).
#123 Jarren Hall
#151 Alex Forsyth
#154 Richard Jibunor (who I don’t know)
This also has the look of a Seahawks draft class, other than a Round 3 CB.
I’ve spoken with that tool directly via tweet, and he won’t budge either. He’s dead set on mocking Seattle defense all the way up until the draft. He’s an idiot.
I shared because the all 4 QB gone/moving on from Carter was notable for a commenter who pays a lot of attention to rumors. Also influential amongst general NFL fans.
He does put in the effort, even if he has some wildly wrong swings. Going out to round 6 is crazy.
His first round mocks are usually pretty close.
🙂 the T Rex emoji
Dang, with JS and PC, the Hubris is never ending: according to PFT, Carrol is on about hoew they have lots of big holes to fill on D, and not much money, and Seattle is gonna have to recruit hard and Gosh, the players really gotta help us with recruiting…
Insanity. Doing the same thing repeatedly while expecting a different outcome. This has failed for 9 years in a freaking row…Seattle ain’t in Cali or Dallas, if they want talent they gotta outbid for it, this ain’t College.
Also, their own poor decisions and Ownership constraints are why they are cash strapped. That, and pathetically holding onto Adams to try to make their awful trade look a little less awful, rather than cut bait and use the money to improve the team.
They both deserve to be fired for hanging onto Adams when the team has so many holes and so little cap space. Hubris is hamstringing thus team.
💯
The saddest thing of all from the Carroll perspective is that if he doesn’t just cut bait with the guy, it’s highly likely Adams will either perform poorly or get injured early yet again or both, which will just add to the legacy of a horrible trade. If he’d just cut Adams at least it wouldn’t continue to get worse.
The definition of hubris?
As the draft nears and it appears thus far that the Hawks have had more talks with Safeties than maybe any other position…not counting qbs because they can only draft one maybe none of the top four I’m hoping this signals that they are aware that Adams might not be ready deep in the season.
But. I’m still seeing/hearing thoughts that Adams at hybrid LB, Adams in multi safety looks, Adams big part of the plans…last I recall that mindset was the pathetic excuse for the atrocious defense last year.
In a less discussed blunder how about not having a measly amount of cash to pay Ryan Neal who has been bailing out this Adams mess and…actually recieved some all-pro votes.
The song and dance I hear from more polly Anna talking heads is Love is an upgrade. Cool. How bout I do you one better? Cut adams, sign love, resign neal, draft a safety? I really enjoy that we could almost fit three safeties on the cost of a post June cut of Adams.
I thought Neal already signed with the Bucs (https://nfltraderumors.co/buccaneers-signing-s-ryan-neal-to-one-year-deal/). And I think it’s right to get a safety this year, as Rob said it’s a deep class and we should take into account not only Adams’ injuries but also Diggs’ age.
Mick-
This is what I mean though: rounded numbers for ease.
Adams cut = 8 million
Love + Neal + 4th round rookie= 6.5 mil + 3mil +1mil= 10.5mil
Instead of retaining a guy who recieved all pro votes, in a cratering safety market, for frankly not very much money because Adams who has played 50% of possible games in three years and may never come back with a quadriceps tear…is “in our plans,” is pretty bad team building.
My bad, misunderstood you. I’m totally in for any way of getting rid of Adams.
No worries! I’m a terrible rambler…
Here’s the article by Brady
https://www.espn.com/blog/seattle-seahawks/post/_/id/36468/the-seahawks-new-look-defense-is-coming-along-but-not-done-yet
Relevant text
Didn’t the Allen Foundation just auction off a bunch of art for $1.6 Billion?
Maybe they can’t intermingle the funds or something, but feels like cash flow should be ok.
It does come across as odd.
I applaud this team’s aggression. Cutting your entire DL essentially and starting over is something they wouldn’t have dreamed of even two years ago.
There is going to be, somewhere somehow a spot on the team where they are lean and hope the top talent like Dre, woolen, Reed plays like it and Taylor, Mafe, Bryant make significant progress and they at least aren’t too far underwater at the safety position.
It’s not the best situation but I vastly prefer it to being told that benson mayowa and Bruce Irvin are the backbones of the defensive line.
The Athletic just put out an updated Mock draft, with two trade downs and a huge QB swing. Enjoy:
https://theathletic.com/4378565/2023/04/05/seahawks-nfl-mock-draft-2023-2/
Posted the results above for non subscribers
Yep, Dugar finally got it right (mostly).
I feel like MSD sandbags in coverage of personnel moves and draft coverage.
He knows insider stuff but doesn’t share it, and sometimes avoids it to the point of it feeling like a red herring.
Sanders and FAU feel like that.
I really like the horizontal board Rob. I think this is just your talent assessment, including talent that dont fit seahawks scheme? If so, it would be great to highlight the subset that you think are good fits for seattle.
I’m glad you pointed this out because I plan to do a ‘Seahawks centric’ board before the draft, which will have far fewer names on it.
Btw, you have RezJohn Wright on your board but Alex Austin out? I think, he is an even more polished player.
I haven’t scouted Alex Austin. I do this in my spare time and can’t cover every player
Rob is on vacation, so I’m hoping he does not answer this, and another community member can clue me in.
Overshown, I feel like he should be at least round 3. I’ve been watching some Texas highlights as I’m developing a small draft crush on Coburn, Overshown jumps off the screen on that D. His tape looks better than Williams (Dorian) to my eye. Round 2 feels early for an off ball LB, but I feel he could sniff it.
I’ll need to look up his testing, maybe he ran slow and I missed it.
I really like Overshown… at safety
I would convert him back to safety and have him play like Kam
Which makes a ton of sense to me with the 3 safety sets the Hawks were playing last year.
Wonder how he would stack up against the safety class this year.
How much are the beers in Dubai?
Well, a Diet Pepsi is £6 so can only imagine how much the beers are!
My wife had a beer earlier but I’m not a day drinker
I like it
I do not want Carter at all. I think he is overrated without the drama. This is why I have the sinking feeling they’re taking him at #5 . 🤣🤣🤣🤣