Future Seahawk? Unlikely
As we edge closer to the draft, we’re starting to see a consensus among prognosticators. Todd McShay, Lance Zierlein, Daniel Jeremiah, Mike Renner and others have the Seahawks picking Jalen Carter at #5.
Earlier today I watched this video featuring Mike Florio and Chris Simms, discussing Seattle’s options. They concluded Carter would be the pick in Seattle and that a quarterback wouldn’t be.
It’s always best to avoid guaranteeing things will or won’t happen. You can never be 100% sure. Usually it’s a surefire way to end up with egg on your face, writing an article explaining why you got things so emphatically wrong. I’m always happy to admit when I’ve called something poorly, with my Geno Smith video last year a good example of that.
That said, I’m not going to need to do a Jalen Carter video. I’m comfortable saying he won’t be Seattle’s pick at #5. Book it. Put it in ink.
I’m not 100% sure. I am 99.5% sure, though.
Regulars will be bored of me talking about this. Trust me, I’m bored too. I’m going to go over a lot of old ground again here. Yet with the majority of high-profile mocks pairing Seattle with Carter recently, I think it’s worth returning to this subject.
I’ll start by saying I appreciate why this projection keeps being made. Pete Carroll and John Schneider have developed reputations as risk takers. They’ve taken big swings. They’ve made controversial moves, most notably drafting Frank Clark.
I understand why someone who doesn’t follow the Seahawks religiously would conclude that Carter to Seattle makes sense. Good ol’ Pete will be prepared to take a shot. He’ll coach him up and get him going. No problemo.
This isn’t reflective of where the Seahawks are at, though. In the case of Carter, I also doubt they’ll want to take on this particular challenge.
We’ve heard a few times now that the Seahawks last year renewed their commitment to character when it comes to drafting. The words ‘without compromise’ have been used to describe their approach to character.
Here’s what Schneider said about their celebrated 2022 class back in November:
“They’re great workers and they act like they are pros, all of them. I think Tyler Lockett said it best. None of them really talk. They just listen, work their asses off and keep working at their profession.”
Here’s Pete Carroll on how character played a big part in the players they selected:
“It was really important to us. Their character and their confidence in themselves, the ways they came across with that. We were picking them for those spots hoping it would work out and it did. Perfect group of guys in the makeup and the mentality that they brought to us.
We’re always trying to get more accurate in what we’re doing and we really find that the character and makeup part of it was crucial and we continue to look at that.”
Schneider has talked openly about making mistakes in the past. In fairness, that isn’t just about character. He’s discussed drafting players who weren’t up to the challenge of competing against the superstars in the locker room. Players were in awe of Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman, not motivated to take their jobs.
It’s also inevitable that when any reference is made to learning from mistakes, Malik McDowell immediately springs to mind.
The warning signs were there with McDowell — a top-10 talent who sank deep into round two amid a flurry of reports about his character, attitude, personality, dedication to his craft and college consistency.
When Schneider called McDowell to tell him he was being selected, he did so with a warning: “Don’t forget our conversation, OK?”
The Seahawks knew they were selecting a rare physical talent with the tools to be great. They also knew they were taking a gamble. A big gamble. In the second round, three years removed from a Super Bowl run, they felt that chance was worth taking.
McDowell never played a down for the Seahawks.
When I spoke to Scot McCloughan recently, I asked him about the decision making process when weighing up risky picks like McDowell. His answer was telling and important:
“I won’t say any names but there’s a player this year who is highly, highly, highly talented at a position that’s hard to find. I’ve been there before and I’ve taken that player. I learned early, I didn’t listen to it because the talent outweighed the character but my first boss told me if you make one exception, you’ll end up with a team of exceptions. I never understood what that meant until I got older.”
“Everybody makes mistakes. I’ve made many of them. It’s the ones who keep making the same mistake over and over that really worry you.”
I don’t know who the player is he referred to in this quote but the point about a pattern of mistakes is important. There was a pattern with McDowell. There’s a pattern with Carter. From the reported maturity concerns, the clear and obvious conditioning issues and now the legal trouble.
McDowell and Carter are different players with different issues. Yet for all the talk of learning lessons, it wouldn’t be much of a learned lesson to go down this road — with a much more valuable, expensive and high-profile pick.
Seattle’s experience with McDowell, you’d think, should be enough to sit out this next game of roulette. Everyone deserves a mulligan. The Seahawks have had theirs.
Further to that, Dave Wyman (who hosts a weekly show with Schneider) reported a few weeks ago that the Seahawks were unwilling to draft Kayvon Thibodeaux in round one last year. Thibodeaux’s character issue consisted of a keenness to talk, non-stop, about his ‘brand’ and how much money he intended to make. If that was enough to remove him from Seattle’s first round board, it’s hard to imagine Carter is going to be considered.
Really, that should be enough right? Assuming that information on Thibodeaux is true, are we really going to imagine a situation where Thibodeaux’s entrepreneurial ambitions were too problematic but Carter’s reported maturity, conditioning and legal issues are not?
Let’s take the conditioning angle in isolation. We identified a couple of months ago that Carter, when quizzed last April about his priorities for the season, said his #1 aim was to improve his conditioning. He reiterated that twice during the press conference and it was acknowledged by his Head Coach Kirby Smart as necessary.
We could see clearly on tape that these words were not followed up with actions. Carter admitted he was ’embarrassed’ (his words) by his performance against Ohio State, where he looked exhausted and was visibly struggling to get through the game.
Whatever aim he had to improve his conditioning, it seems little was done about it.
Provided Carter was ready for gameday, it wasn’t really viewed as a problem at Georgia. We’re talking about a player so talented that he can live off natural ability.
We saw, however, what happened when the pace quickened and the level upped against the Buckeyes. Suddenly, talent alone wasn’t enough. He’s going to need to take things seriously. When people talk about maturity and Todd McShay talks about whether you’d want him in your locker room, this is part of the issue.
McShay added to what he’s reporting on today’s ‘First Draft podcast’:
“There’s a lot of football character stuff. Practise habits, not giving great effort in practise, talking back to coaches, coaches not being able to coach him hard. There’s a lot of that stuff and it’s all based on seven different sources that I have so I’m not making anything up… You as an organisation have got to figure out can we deal with this?”
The perception is Carroll and Schneider would love to to get such a rare talent in the building and try to work him into a position where he can succeed. Let’s go back to Schneider’s review of the 2022 class:
“They’re great workers and they act like they are pros, all of them. I think Tyler Lockett said it best. None of them really talk. They just listen, work their asses off and keep working at their profession.”
If that was the aim for the draft a year ago — and it led to a class broadly considered an A+ group — it flies in the face of realism that they would follow it up by using a top-five pick on someone like Carter. You’ll need to mould him into a pro and change his entire approach to preparation, conditioning and what it takes to succeed at the highest level.
This is why I think Will Anderson will be so highly regarded by the Seahawks. He is a fantastic scheme fit for the 3-4, he has A+ grades in terms of character, family background, the way he speaks to team mates and the media and he’s an alpha who brings 100% energy and physicality to every series.
That’s a Seahawk. If he lasts to #5, he’ll probably literally be a Seahawk.
You cannot make these arguments for Carter. Bring it every series? Is he even going to bring himself to every lifting session? I’m not being flippant, I’m being serious.
Carter isn’t going to be the pick. The Seahawks might actually appreciate that the mainstream media are focusing on that angle as much as they are.
Someone will take him early. There’s been a lot of fuss around Drew Rosenhaus’ announcement that he won’t meet with any teams not picking in the top-10. Frankly, I think it’s a reasonable tactic from the agent. Better to get in front of the story if most of the league has little interest in meeting (and therefore drafting) his client. Now it sounds like bravado rather than damage limitation.
The team that selects Carter will have a GM in a secure position. That GM will have money in the bank whereby he can afford to risk getting a big decision wrong if the pick busts.
I’m going to mock him to the Eagles at #10 in every projection unless new information emerges. Howie Roseman is a hero to Eagles fans after building two Super Bowl teams in recent years. He already has a Super Bowl roster on his hands, so it’s a low-risk gamble for him. This is an extreme bonus pick for the Eagles. A shot to nothing, really.
Could the Bears take him? Maybe — but they also have a new GM and are rebuilding. I think the Lions are a wildcard. The Eagles will ultimately be my prediction, though.
Character is another reason why I think the Seahawks will also be very intrigued by the quarterbacks. I don’t buy the rhetoric expressed by Florio and Simms that they’ll be worried about undermining Geno Smith. The Geno contract was structured for a reason. It’s a beautifully crafted deal full of incentive without any long-term commitment. With the way Smith’s 2022 season ended, they’re right to keep their options open on a player who was a journeyman until last year.
All four of the top quarterbacks have the competitive attitude and high character that Carroll and Schneider are looking for. Three of the quarterbacks are physical marvels with outstanding upside. The other is being described in the highest terms for his character and talent.
Questions about the future at QB throughout the season? They won’t worry about that. This is the team that spent 14 months living with a Wilson trade saga in the media. They wrote-off millions on a Matt Flynn contract. They’ve handled noise.
I think too much of this draft season has been filled discussing whether the Seahawks are prepared to draft a quarterback. I think it’s fairly evident they are. Now it’s just a case of whether they actually will.
I don’t think the last few months have been one big lying session.
I don’t think they’ve been fibbing about the importance of character in their draft decision making. The 2022 draft is evidence enough of them putting their money where their mouth is, plus the report on their lack of interest in Thibodeaux.
I don’t think they’ve been pulling a fast one, telling everyone they’re monitoring the quarterbacks closely and might take one when they have no intention of doing so. If they were willing to trade Russell Wilson to the Browns in 2018 simply in order to replace him with Josh Allen, or draft Patrick Mahomes in 2017 when they already had prime-Wilson, there’s no reason why they wouldn’t use a rare top-five pick on a quarterback in this draft if Schneider really likes one or more of the group.
When they say picking fifth overall is a rare opportunity they’re excited about — I think they mean it. They’re hopefully never going to be in this position again.
I don’t think they’re as eager to trade down as some believe. Trade down for what? To get even more than the haul of 10 picks they already have? Just to select a guard, running back, tight end or spend a high pick on a cornerback for the first time ever? To get stock in 2024 that they hope will be as good as the top-five pick they already possess?
Thankfully we only have to wait three weeks to find out the truth but I still think it’ll be fairly straight forward in the top-five.
C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young will be the top-two picks, with the order to be determined. I think it’ll be Stroud at #1.
Then the draft hinges on the Cardinals. It’s highly possible a team trades up for one of Anthony Richardson or Will Levis. Arizona needs stock to fill out their roster, after a disastrous free agency period. They’re basically in rebuild mode.
If no sufficient offer comes forth, they’ll almost certainly take Will Anderson. That would be an excellent pick because he has talent, character and can help reset the culture in Arizona. Yet increasingly it feels like someone is going to trade up for Richardson. There’s a reason why Las Vegas, Atlanta and Tennessee are all having official-30 visits with him.
I do think the Seahawks will consider moving up too. They seem to have taken a real shine to Richardson. There’s a reason why Schneider was, according to Corbin Smith, chatting for considerable time to Richardson’s agent at the Florida pro-day, with Carroll having an audience with Billy Napier. It just feels like, whether they ultimately draft him or not, they’re intrigued.
If Arizona sticks and takes Anderson at #3, I would expect Will Levis to go to the Colts. Indianapolis needs a 2023 starter. Levis is better prepared to do that. I don’t know why people who were mocking Levis in the top-five two weeks ago are suddenly dropping him into the teens without explanation. I think it’s that time of year where one prognosticator does one thing and everyone copies. I appreciate why some teams won’t like Levis as an option but I think the Colts and Seahawks will be very prepared to select him considering who their GM’s are, their preferences, and the fit (Levis’ readiness to start for Indianapolis and success within Seattle’s scheme at Kentucky).
In the scenario where picks #3-4 go Anderson/Levis — I would expect the Seahawks to select Richardson at #5.
Anderson or Richardson. Worst case scenario, Levis.
Either way, a win-win-win for the Seahawks.
As for the rest of their picks — I think a few things. Firstly, there’s room for a skill-position pick like we saw a year ago with Ken Walker. That’s represented a ton in mocks with Jordan Addison and Jaxon Smith-Njigba the trendy picks. I think receiver could be an option but see Josh Downs as a more likely fit (or Jonathan Mingo on day two). They might prefer to invest in tight end due to the quality of the class and the need that will be present in 2024.
The ‘edge’ rusher group is not as good as some people are suggesting. There are a lot of names but most are day three types. It’s a position you have to strike early. If it’s not Will Anderson, I would expect Will McDonald to be an early target. Keep an eye on Derrick Hall too as he fits the profile perfectly that Seattle likes at the position. If they can’t get to the key names at the top, they might wait until later for someone like YaYa Diaby — who is having an official-30 visit.
Center will almost certainly be an early target with one of John Michael Schmitz or Luke Wypler seemingly destined to end up in Seattle.
Bodies are needed up front on defense and the Seahawks are very aware of that. Let’s remember though — this has often been a mid-round target. It won’t be a surprise if they see players like Cameron Young, Byron Young (Alabama), Jaquelin Roy and others as good quality snap eaters in the middle rounds, meaning they can focus on other areas early.
The #20-40 range could be a good area to add another player who can flip between three and five-technique to provide extra pressure up front.
It’s also a deep class at safety, full of aggressive, physical players and team captains. I think they’ve worked out they can comfortably replace Ryan Neal with a rookie drafted between rounds 3-5 — saving money.
And what do these players have in common? Anderson, the quarterbacks, Downs, Schmitz, Wypler, Byron Young, Hall, the safeties — high character, mature, pro’s before they’re pro’s.
When the 2023 draft is complete, I’m certain we’ll be looking at the class and acknowledging how important character was when it came to Seattle’s picks.
No Georgia defensive tackles will be included…
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This makes a world of logical sense!
Although I see some silver lining in most (if not all) of these mocks… I don’t see any projections of Adetomiwa Adebawore or Will McDonald IV in R1.
Dream Scenario:
R1P1: Anthony Richardson
R1P2: Adetomiwa Adebawore
R2P1: Will McDonald IV (steal)
I might be jumping for joy if that happens. Even better if we can get Wypler with our second pick in the second round.
+1
I love those first three picks, however, I’m much more up for selecting a skills position player at #53, particularly one of the excellent Tight Ends.
I’m much lower on the Center’s talked about than most, thinking in most years they’ll be considered 3rd round players. The Seahawks don’t need to reach for a Center, they have a starting calibre player in Evan Brown. He might not blow the doors off, but I don’t think JMS or Wypler will either. Let’s see who’s there at #84 for IOL, we might be surprised and some players like Cody Mauch or Ricky Stromberg might offer a higher ceiling, with time to develop behind Brown this year?
Rob: Wow! Just wow.
I know this is a summation of things you’ve been saying all along, but what a great read! You just keep knocking the ball out of the park with each trip to the plate.
Thanks for all you do, and hope Dubai is treating you well.
Thank you
Rob, love your work! Your high motor character really shines through. Any chance on your next/last Big Board you do that you include the players that have been invited to Seattle ( one of their 30) with a little * or something? Might be fun to help prognosticate. Thanks for all you do.
Sure thing
Every time I see a non Anderson defensive player mocked to Seattle at 5 I lose my mind. It makes no sense besides “Well they need defense so value be damned”
That is basically the thought process
They need defense, Anderson’s gone… errr… who’s next?
It’s as if there is literally ONLY Carter and tyree wilson and not the other nearly dozen names you’ve talked about.
I understand the concerns over character but at the end of the day, who really cares if Kayvon Thibodeaux likes to talk about his brand? He looked pretty dang good last year. Give me the talent.
If Carter plays like a beast on another team’s D-line, I think the Seahawks are gonna experience some regrets.
Did he though? He just like the Oregon player that took half the snaps off. He’ll be washed in 5 years
“who really cares if Kayvon Thibodeaux likes to talk about his brand?” –Dave
The care is not whether the player “likes to talk about his brand,” but whether the player fits the team culture. Does he love the daily grind of football? Or does he just love being a football player? Apparently, the Hawks felt Thibodeaux did not prioritize football the way they want it prioritized in their culture, and that is worth caring about. Their dropping him in no way states that he can’t or won’t succeed elsewhere in the NFL; it just means their high value selection was better spent on a better fit.
“(Thibodeaux) looked pretty dang good last year.” –Dave
Mmm, he had one monster game and an otherwise respectable start—and it’s fine if he does have success with some club that better accommodates players of his psychological makeup. Good for him and them. By the way, the Seahawks got a better player at #9 than the Giants did at #5.
“If Carter plays like a beast on another team’s D-line, I think the Seahawks are gonna experience some regrets.” –Dave
Firstly, if Carter is going to play like a beast in the NFL, he’s going to have to become a worker, because his days of getting by on natural talent are over. NFL linemen work for a living, and they are going to eat Carter alive early and often. His only possible chance of success is to become a man, and the team babysitters responsible for his diaper-changes won’t be able to do that for him. Secondly, no. No regrets. Pick the best players you can without betraying your culture. I’m not worried one iota about Carter making the Seahawks regret not taking him.
Again, any team who passes on Carter is justified in doing so
If he plays well for the team that gambles on him, good for them
But it’s a bit like saying ‘you’ll regret not putting a quarter of your life savings on that game of roulette’ if the guy who does wins. No, that’s just good for him. There are no regrets on not taking the gamble
If you analogy is correct, I would 100% agree with you.
I’m not convinced it’s equivalent to playing a game of roulette.
I assume it’s true that Carter was sometimes lazy at practice.That he talked back to his coaches, etc.
He still played incredibly well on the field.
So historically we’ve already seen that both things can be true.
I think it’s highly unlikely this turns into a Malik McDowell situation.
Lets go ahead and draft a dog on defense instead of watching another team reap the benefits.
You are assuming he will be great, whereas all we see are reports he ain’t looking like he is interested in putting in the work to be that.
So the argument can go the other way. If he continues to pull all the same shitshow, and become just average (say just Al Wood level) would you regret taking him? Cuz right now all we see is chances of him turning out to be average is much more so than him becoming great. This ain’t pick 13 we are talking about here. It’s 5. There’s no reason to take such a risk given the other options available.
Immaturity, laziness, and lack of passion, and now you give no5 pick money to those… it’s a pretty scary combination.
But he isn’t a dog Dave
He is someone who was out of shape and got by on natural talent enough to make a few splash plays against college players
Then when it got to the LSU and Ohio State games he looked gassed and ineffective (against OSU)
That’s what you’ll get if he doesn’t completely change his approach to his life and career. You don’t pick him fifth to play a third of the snaps and make the odd splash and get knackered in key games
Neither was he lazy ‘sometimes’ in practise. He did what he wanted at Georgia
I completely understand why some fans (mostly on this blog) are turned off by Jalen Carter given recent events. I also have reservations.
What I don’t understand is why people (including you, Rob) are now acting as if they never thought Jalen was a very talented player to begin with.
I follow this blog very closely (it’s a gift for Seahawks fans, truly) and this was not the feeling from most people just a few months ago before all of the negative reports.
So comments like meh, he just made “a few splash plays against college players” is odd. Maybe Carter has major character issues but why do people now feel the need to downplay his talent?
I mean, your very first draft board had him slated as a Round 1 draft pick for a reason, right?
People on this blog are now acting as if they are unaware of the consensus opinion, which is that Jalen Carter is a very special and talented player – regardless of the character concerns.
I just find it very odd.
Maybe he was lazy and always did what he wanted at Georgia (a red flag for sure) but it certainly benefited his team to have him on the field during games. And I think it would benefit the Seahawks.
Time will tell. If Carter becomes one of the top defensive players in the NFL, I don’t think the team who drafted him will care too much about his attitude at practice.
That’s not what I’m doing at all. I was directly responding to your assertion that he’s a ‘dog’ on the field. He isn’t. He couldn’t play many snaps because his conditioning was awful. I’ve spoken to someone in the know who put it like this. He was more talented than Davis and Wyatt. He should’ve had two +10 sack seasons at Georgia. Instead he played about 30% of the snaps in 2021 and was still being spelled in 2022. Why? because his conditioning was awful because he did what he wanted at Georgia. He squandered his college career and only achieved a tiny percentage of what he was capable of.
And when it came to the big games, the defining games, he’s huffing and puffing, doubled over, unable to play, admitting he looked embarrassing out there.
To me, that doesn’t fit the description of a ‘dog’ on the field.
Also, please don’t try and make out like ‘this blog’ is the home of Jalen Carter trepidation. It isn’t. Many have concerns, within this fan base, within other fan bases, in the media and more importantly within the league.
That’s what it was. He made a few splash plays where his natural talent was too good. He should’ve dominated in the way Suh did. He didn’t, because his approach and dedication to his career hasn’t been good enough so far.
He’s still in round one based on talent with a significant red flag warning.
You seem to have taken me challenging your suggestion that he’s a ‘dog on the field’ and flipped that to, ‘you think he sucks’. Which is a leap.
‘People on this blog’ have their own thoughts. We’re not one big group that thinks the same, however often people like to make that claim. You’re on this blog and I’m debating you, as I do many people. Plenty of others agree with a lot of my takes, which is no different to any other site with regular visitors. SDB is seemingly accused of being a place where everyone agrees with me and a place where I argue with everyone in the comments. So please, spare us the ‘people on this blog’ talk.
I find it odd, too, how people are prepared to go down this route of discussion instead of being willing to accept the major concerns that are attached to Carter.
Case in point. You’re just glibly dismissing this whole thing as ‘maybe he was a bit lazy’. Come on. It’s far more serious than that. If everything I’ve written and said, paired with everything other people have written or said, not to mention reported on some serious subject matter, isn’t enough for you to speak in more serious terms than that, then all I can do is assume you’re one of those Carter stans among this fan base who are willing to overlook everything because you like the concept of a ‘great defensive tackle’ and the reality is inconvenient.
Because that’s definitely how it works.
You can just turn up, slouch it, be there when you fancy it. Have bad conditioning. Don’t learn from mistakes, including warnings from the police.
And become an elite NFL talent.
Come on.
Exactly this ^^^^^
“The care is not whether the player “likes to talk about his brand,” but whether the player fits the team culture. Does he love the daily grind of football? Or does he just love being a football player?” – Malanch
My point is that we should care more about the performance on the field. Forget Thibodeaux – pretend for a second that Nick Bosa was in this draft and had the same character concerns.
The Hawks say “nah, we’re not drafting him. Doesn’t fit our culture.”
And then Nick Bosa kicks ass in every game for the 49ers despite his character concerns.
Would anyone praise the Hawks for prioritizing culture over talent when they had the chance to draft Bosa?
I don’t think so. You say you would but I just don’t buy it. People would very quickly change their minds once the Ls started to rack up.
Let’s draft the most talented players. Five minutes ago, it was nearly unanimous that such a player was Jalen Carter. Whoever gets him is going to be celebrating real hard.
Maybe it does matter more than you think?
Bosa looked fantastic from day one
Thibodeaux looked OK
Nick Bosa would not be “Nick Bosa” if he had the attitude and work ethic of Jalen Carter.
Yes, Dave: Whoever gets Jalen Carter will definitely be celebrating hard, because that’s what teams do on draft day. But we’ll see how hard they’re celebrating a few years down the road, when Carter’s intrinsic motivation–or lack thereof–has had its say.
Seattle has always just been a box they check off, usually because we pick in the later rounds. Picking at 5 hasn’t seemed to changed that.
I would think the fantastic combine numbers put up by Ade Ade would be very appealing to the defensive coaching staff. A high traits DL prospect to mold to take advantage of those traits, maybe? #20 may be a possibility, However, I’d expect trader John to possibly trade down 3-7 picks to select him and add additional picks that will enable him to move around more in the draft by both trading up and trading down.
Definitely is probably one of their plans. It’s so hard to say though, because if a player like Mayer or Bijan slips, i feel like you gotta take them.
Hi Rob, I know you said that JS and PC like (supposedly) AR and Will Levis, but let’s say they don’t like Will Levis (I’m a bit struck by Tony’s mention of GOOD CHARACTER about C J, Bryce and AR but not Will Levis) and AR is not available, what do we do ? I don’t see a clear trade back with any team, I don’t think another player is worth the pick 5, being in this position what would you do ?
Well, I’ve interviewed Levis personally. Spoken to people who’ve been around him. Spoken to people at Kentucky. I’m interviewing his team mate Chris Rodriguez tomorrow.
There are zero character concerns with Levis. He is high character, much loved by staff, trainers, team mates. He is intelligent to the max, dedicated to football and how he looks after himself.
If teams are put off because he posts Instagram photos of his muscles, that’s their mistake.
It’s not worth worrying about.
Any executive in the NFL who thinks Levis is a narcissist because he posted selfies is completely out of touch with the younger generation. I have kids who aren’t too much younger than Levis and that’s all that age group does is post selfies. How dare he be like everyone else that age.
100%
We live in a world addicted to social media, in particular addicted to showing off how you look on social media
Shock horror a 24-year-old in the best shape of his life wanted to flex a bit
I think he’s too big in that photo but I think it was clever camera work, he’s probably had a few days stripping for the purpose of the photo to get the water off to look as ripped as possible too. At his pro-day he looked like a normal person, not a body-builder. I would have a word if I was his coach and tell him to take 15% off his lifting. Hardly a drama.
Tempest in a teapot.
What a contrast Levis is to Carter.One getting criticised by the media for working hard on his body and fitness. The other getting a pass for the opposite.
One having every flaw dissected and emphasised
One having his splash plays accentuated to create the idea he’s incredible, while ignoring any issues on tape
Any human being that is actually comfortable being the focal point of a football team with millions of eyes on them every time they drop back has to be a narcissist or delusional to some degree. It’s almost a job requirement. As long as they’re able to still be a good teammate without turning things toxic, not a problem.
All these quarterbacks seem like smart, amicable players who this front office should be able to mold into franchise quarterbacks due to their outstanding physical abilities. Young is off the charts in so many areas. Supposedly Alabama had crafted a play-action heavy offense to fit his stature, only to scrap it immediately when they found out he can run the entire playbook. Stroud has uncanny accuracy I can only describe as Brady-esque. Like Brady, he doesn’t have a cannon, but the ball lands where it’s supposed to and racks up those RAC’s. Levis and Richardson have such incredible upside as far as arm talent, they probably fit our system the most, since it seems to rely on this type of player. A mobile QB who can simultaneously stay on schedule and push the ball downfield with ease.
Just get one of them, please.
I would give up next year’s Rd1 to Cards to move to #3. AZ GM defends trade that they get an extra 1 and their player (Anderson). Imagine AR walking out with a Seahawk hat gonna be an entertaining fun draft…
I would too if that’s what it took. I’d then look to trade down from 20 to get a 1 or 2 next year to make up for it. More likely a 2.
I’m inclined to agree, Rob. There seems to be an overwhelming emphasis in national and local media, and subsequently regurgitated by a large swathe of the fanbase, that SEA is the natural destination for the NFL’s problem children. “This is the franchise that drafted Frank Clark and Malik McDowell! This team put up with the attitudes of Marshawn, Mike Bennett, Sherman, Baldwin and Earl Thomas! Their culture is set up so n’er-do-wells can thrive. It’s an army of misfit toys! Book Carter at #5!”
Of course, this doesn’t take into consideration that the majority of those guys were pissed off for greatness. They weren’t lazy (McDowell excepted) and coasting. They were laser focused on being the best. It’s easy for a coach to foster an attitude that allows guys to be themselves when they’re all busting ass to be the best. Now, it may have the consequence that allowing that for too long gets guys eventually competing against each other when they get too big for their britches.
Regardless, this “all Carter needs is a place he can get away from the structure that doesn’t work for him now and be himself in a culture that will nurture his inner lost boy” is lazy and a misunderstanding of what made Pete’s philosophy initially work.
Hoping Dubai is treating the family well!
Read one the other day that said Seattle can hide him up in the PNW away from his roots. This may have been the case 30-40 years ago, but you can’t hide anywhere these days.
Maybe Nagy? But was listening to some one I respect mentioned that moving people can work but also fails when they are way out if their comfort zone.
Maybe he needs a change of scenery, but I lived in the virgin islands ( I’m from Seattle) and totally loved it. I also witnessed countless young people move there from all over the US and within months some family member was flying down to rehome them because they were broke, lost, and often worse.
When I read that I though “has this writer ever even been to Seattle” …. tucked away like we are in Siberia
The difference between guys like Marshawn, Sherm, Bennett, ET and Baldwin, and Carter and McDowell, is those former Seahawks showed up everyday wanting to get better, wanting to win, wanting to be the best. Carter and McDowell are the types of players who were always more talented than a lot of their opponents, and never worked hard for it. They just do t have the drive to do what the guys listed did.
Too many draft people take the easy route when matching players to Seattle. Jalen Carter and Tyree Wilson are just not guys the Seahawks are going to take at 5. If Wilson fell to 20 maybe, but without seeing testing numbers to see if he could put another 10 pounds on and maybe be a guy that could swing between the 5t and 3t spots.
To be fair, it is 100% possible that Carter does just need a change of scenery. They say that you are the average of the 5-6 people closest to you. And if that happens for him fantastic, I just tend to agree with Rob that the chance of that happening in the pnw is remote to none. The nice thing is that at 5 there are other choices where you are hopefully gambling less than the coin flip that Carter is.
Official-30 tracker so far:
DAWAND JONES (T)
JAMMIE ROBINSON (S)
JORDAN HOWDEN (S)
JERRICK REED II (S)
BRAEDEN DANIELS (T/G)
BYRON YOUNG (TENNESSEE) (EDGE)
ADETOMIWA ADEBAWORE (DE)
YAYA DIABY (EDGE)
Maybe Tyree Wilson?
Jordan McFadden too it seems: https://twitter.com/RiseNDraft/status/1641097680343425027
And Anthony Bradford (https://thedraftnetwork.com/anthony-bradford-nfl-draft-2023-interview).
Good spot — I’m a big fan of Anthony Bradford’s
Great spot — another player I like
Really seems like the guards I/we’ve focused on as fits are on their radar
I start to believe we’re gonna end up with another draft we love. And also you’ve developed an eye for players Seattle likes 🙂
I think the sheer fact they have 10 picks is setting it up for an A+ draft. Quantity always helps.
But I do think if they get #5 right too, this could be even better than a year ago. And getting #5 right for me means drafting Will Anderson or one of the top-four QB’s.
I’d really like to see them add one more day 3 pick, I feel like there is a lot of potential value there.
Ade Ade Top 30 Visit, this Blog really is the place. You identified him months ago as a target. Kudos to you!
JL Skinner was confirmed by SI: :But there is no denying their apparent interest in the position ahead of the draft. Along with hosting Howden, Seattle has already met with J.L. Skinner (Boise State) and Jammie Robinson (Florida State), both ranked among the Top 10 safeties in next month’s draft.” https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/news/seattle-seahawks-jordan-howden-safety-draft-visit-prospect
Thanks for keeping it sane, allowing common sense to prevail.
Thank you, and always ✔️
Really great article. I to started to think that Carter could be an option at 5 if Anderson and Richardson are gone but you have changed my mind. Still not sure they would select Levis at 5 but would be OK if they did. Cant wait for the 27th. Side note for me is I truly believe they will select a TE between 20-52. They need cap space and Fants $6.85m is the easiest way to get it.
I think my favorite of the Carter to the Seahawks apologist arguments is the “it’s only a misdemeanor” “he can’t be charge any further”. To me that is completely missing the point. It’s not the nature of the charge, or the mild punishment related to the charge. It is the continued proof of poor judgment. The lack of commitment to being the best football player on the planet. The misdemeanor part does not matter.
I’ll do you one better….I live the argument about thinking was this poor young man has been through. Sure. Now think about how he gets to keep making millions while the others involved are just memories for their families.
For me it just seems fairly obvious that this is a guy with God given talent who has never put it together. And this fantasy land where Pete makes it click when he has a ton if things on his plate just seems super far fetched. If it was one thing that would be something to consider. But it’s the totality of judgement, work ethic, not getting on the field, his agent doing weird damage control.
Spot on Gerry
Honestly I’d be more willing to take him if his only flag was vehicular manslaughter, but his maturity and conditioning issues were extremely evident long before that news broke. I can’t get past the 40% of snaps, personally. I don’t care how loaded Georgia is, if he was playing up to his talent level, he’d have forced his way onto the field for twice as many snaps. A guy with that much natural ability playing so little and accumulating only 3 sacks this year is a massive red flag for me. Watching him lazily walk through his pro day really sealed it. I’ve been around enough people like that in my life to know that they almost never develop a work ethic later in life. That sense of entitlement is damn near permanent.
What’s amazing is imagine how great of a player he’d be if he could just get into proper shape and play a complete game? Reggie White level talent.
I wouldn’t mind Seattle taking a chance on him…after he’s cut by his first team. That’s the only type of Pete reclamation project I could see happening here.
I was out on Carter once I saw the video of him “listening” to the cop who pulled him over last year for chronic speeding. The entitlement and lack of concern were written on his face. He obviously wasn’t going to change a thing.
On the subject of wanting a quarterback is obviously Seattle trying to fool everybody out there. That’s a pretty expensive misdirection if you’re going to fly down to each of the four Pro days and presumably bring some offensive coaches and Scouts and spend the time to do it.
5D chess can spare no expense.
I forget where I read it…but apparently they flew on Jody’s private jet to each pro day. Spared no expense scouting these QB’s.
While going to see the QBs was top on the list, I image those schools had a plethora of talent to scout.
Great write up, mildly depressing it is needed, again.
I’ve started to wonder if the Hawks would take any player from Georgia (only PCJS selection was Chris Durham in 2011), with a lot of smoke about that program’s problems.
I’ve recently started challenging pro-Carter types to explain to me why he won’t be the pick at #3, after all Anderson is not a Bosa and Carter eats worlds (according to them). There never is an answer.
Some of the other DLine in this class have high to ultra high character, team captains, alpha dogs. And they all look like they can stick as NFL pros. Wish more Hawks fans were on board with Young (ALA), Young (MissSt), and Coburn.
Great names listed. How about more fans get on board with Ade Ade whom the team met with, keion white who is a plus athlete with hot motor and is a perfect size for dline with the smarts to acknowledge where he can improve and has always been a team guy playing center, TE, DE, and lining up inside.
But Carter has heavy hands.
Ade Ade seems destined to be a Seahawk. He’s like the DK of the Dline. Dudes like this just don’t roam around Earth. He’s in the 99.99th percentile. That 20th pick has him written all over him unless another team snatches him up.
If the team comes away with Will Anderson and Ade Ade with the first 2 picks then that’s a major win in my opinion.
And yet I rarely ever hear his name paired with us outside of here and we’ll the actual seahawks organization.
I hear you though. Get ne the true freak show of the draft and get him in a system with other players. I think he could be awesome.
He has hit the trifecta for me:
1) Had a great Senior Bowl!
2) Had a great Combine!
3) Had an official visit with the team!
I’m not a betting man but if I were for the #20th pick…
Ade may very well last. There will be a run on OT’s and CB’s after the scrum to grab QB’s. Then you have guys like Carter, Kancey, Bresee, Mayer, Nolan Smith and Robinson. Add that up and guys that don’t have huge production numbers, but big potential, will start to go.
I’m very confident the Hawks will walk away with a lot of their targets fall to them. They also have the ammo to move up whenever they want. With 10 total picks, they can afford to make that jump and not feel the sting of less picks.
I firmly think we’ll be hearing his name at #37.
20? Maybe a tad too high.
But if they do the big trade and there is no pick 37 maybe ade ade is an option with a trade down at 20.
Think teams might fight over the top few wr’s early too. Quite a few teams are we deficient
Titans (#11), Texans (12), Patriots (14) and Green Bay (15) all seem likely spots for WR. BUT Titans need to improve OL; Texans surely got trenches either OL to protect Young or Stroud or Demeco bolstering his D; Patriots have spent some money at WR; and Green Bay i think are in TE territory, having let Lewis and Tonyan walk.
Every time I hear – We should trade down, get a ’24 1st and go after QB in a better class…
I think of this
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/6pkxV6h550I
I’ve had to stop reading those comments
I’m worried my next dramatic eye roll might lead to an injury
Well they COULD trade with a team that completely flops and gift-wraps them a top 5 pick in a QB-rich draft.
Think of what the Seahawks could do with that!
Isn’t that what just happened with the Wilson….
I see what you did there…
no wait… i think he’s onto something here… the mystery box could be anything!
It could even be a top 5 pick!
I think the worst draft prediction is ‘ the Seahawks will trade down because they’re against the cap and the #5 pick is expensive’.
I had a date planned with Gale Gadot but cancelled cuz gas is expensive.
Thus, adding more picks which also cost money
Are you sure Rob? Cause the way math here in the US works vs. Maths in the UK…at least according to the cap savants is 20 guys on 1 million is cheaper than 1 guy on 20 million.
Tbf water freezes at 32 degrees here….
Let’s get a few second round picks for #5
I read that sometimes too
We just need one of those teams with five second rounders to get in touch…
If they play this right, Seahawks could get 8 or more picks in the 7th round and crush it.
Pretty funny.
I think we should do this with every pick. And just really get after it at training camp with like 45 guys on priority UDFA money to see who really burns for that football life.
McShay on the First Draft podcast today, talking about Jalen Carter:
McShay also says his sources claim Vegas not moving up to #3 unless Stroud or Young last.
I think that make sense. So they probably won’t. One down!
Another point to raise — McShay also acknowledged their 2022 draft class was based on high character players and that could be a reason not to draft Carter.
So he knows, he gets it. I just wish he’d act on it 🙂
I think a big problem with the McShays and Kipers of the world is they have enough people telling them that Carter is still hanging around the top 5.
I agree that the reasoning behind a Carter pick doesn’t add up with what JS and PC have been doing recently. There is a grain of salt and a raise of my eyebrow when McShay and Kiper do it though. Not to say I believe them or anything but it causes me to do a double take for sure.
Trey Wingo said that 2 teams in the top 10 has Carter completely off their boards. Is Wingo connected to the Seahawks? 2/10 is pretty significant. I think the Eagles are very interested so it’s really 2/9 teams.
I would argue there’s more than two, because I highly doubt the guaranteed to draft a QB teams (CAR, IND) are factored into that.
This makes a lot of sense. When I get nervous about teams trading up I have to remind myself that other teams will have a lot harder time pulling the trigger when it will take so much to move up. Seattle can get it done with one extra pick. And while AZ needs a lot getting Anderson guaranteed plus 1 other high end prospect will look like a huge victory for their front office.
That’s some very serious stuff coming from McShay.
I was listening to MSD this morning and he first says he would draft Jalen (eye roll), but later said he thinks the character issues are a trend and Seahawks likely have taken him off their board at 5 based on his conversations with people inside the building. So, even he thinks it ain’t happening.
It won’t happen. It will be a bigger upset than Saudi Arabia beating Argentina at the World Cup if they take him at #5.
I’ve spoken to sources about Carter’s efforts at Georgia and I say it won’t happen with confidence.
We’ll see if I’m right…
Will you ever disclose what was said? I’m genuinely intrigued by this.
No, the details will stay between me and the source. I want to continue getting info, too, to help me shape what I write about. Apologies.
Don’t apologize, it’s the right thing to do.
Could you please tell your source to talk to McShay and the Seattle media?
If MSD said that he has heard that the discussion of Carter is pretty much over.
The character concerns are one thing but the effort issues are another. I don’t think that flies with Pete Carroll. He’s been pretty short-fused with guys that don’t show effort. Especially early in his Seahawks days.
In the NFL there is an expectation that you are a professional, it is your job.
College ball is, in many ways, an apprenticeship.
Why would any boss want to lavishly invest in an employee where the sorts of things McShay is saying are being reported?
It’s incredible how far natural talent without a good work ethic can take you. Honestly, I’m impressed. I just wish Carter would understand that players of his talent flame out every season..
It definitely mirrored you’ve been saying Rob. MSD put it as: “if I can find this stuff out from my couch, coaches and scouts probably have a lot more.” And “more of a pattern than a one off”.
It seemed a very different tune than previous discussions, or even earlier in the same episode…
Speaking of another topic from the episode: I continue to not understand how an interior defensive line college prospect with limited production and questionable motor is supposed to be expected to have a major impact in year 1. Why is he thought of as a draft Carter, D-line fixed? I don’t even feel that way about Will Anderson and I think he’s tailor made to make an impact in year one.
And then he turns around and mocks Carter to Seattle at 5 and says “talent trumps character”
https://twitter.com/ESPNNFL/status/1643388393034862593
I feel like 70 year old Pete’s going to be like, “I’m too old for this shit.”
I always think the same when I see R1 corners, often at the early draft stages like January. Might happen, but wouldn’t bet on it. Although I saw the post recently suggesting Witherspoon is a possibility, so maybe a first time for everything. But I still agree with the general premise here over the years that PC likes mid rounders and coaching them up for CB.
I doubt they draft Witherspoon — the only reason I’ve even half suggested he could be an option is because the guy hits like a train. It’s crazy. I think they’ll like that but it’d have to be a drop to #20 which I wouldn’t anticipate.
Marquise Blair hit like a train too. Didn’t work out so well at the next level.
Yeah but Witherspoon can actually cover…
He can. I left some needed context out of my reply. They clearly like big hitters who are always looking to lay the wood. I could see them being interested in the likes of Witherspoon and Skinner in this draft at the right price.
I get it. I’m not a huge fan of Skinner though. He has upside but I don’t think he offers as much versatility as some of the other safeties. He is going to struggle in coverage and honestly he is someone I think he will be moved to LB sometime down the line.
I know I mentioned the lazy comps of Levis = Lock and Malik Willis (and stupidly Jamarcus Russell) = Richardson. Those same people then won’t let you mention Carter = McDowell.
Common sense, going the way of the dinosaur.
The discussion about certain players this year has been gutter level
Twitter is such a dumpster fire. I know better to not read the comments, not post, but then I get occasionally sucked in. I almost threw my phone against the wall over the guy you blocked within the last week.
Someone should engage a social scientist to cover this, I’ve never seen anything like it. Full blown mania and childlike behavior.
I had someone yesterday tell me Richardson should be a 5th round pick based on his production, and in the same sentence, without a shred of irony, stated he would take Myles Murphy at #5. Then again, that guy typed in all caps, so I had precisely zero expectation of a cogent argument.
I got into it with a guys a few weeks ago, told me that Jamarcus Russell was miles better than Richardson, and then talked about how pathetic Russell was. That was all Richardson could hope to be. I told him that you have to watch all of his tape and he responded that he had.
Then I followed up that you have to understand what you are actually watching. He responded that I was a idiot and he knew what he was talking about. And that he hoped my team drafted Richardson so we would see how bad he was. Little did he know that my draft hope is Richardson.
If common sense is going the way of the dinosaur, does that mean we are restocking future oil reserves?
Like you said, one guy puts a name at 5 and 20 and the rest follow. An example is T Wilson. As you clearly have pointed out, he’s a DE in a 4-3 D so why is he being mocked to Seattle? Another one as you said is Carter. Today, Will Brinson shows Anderson going to Houston with #2. I think at one time, your mock showed the same thing due to who the new coach is. It’s one of the first mocks I have seen where someone is going off-script. Seattle at #5 bypassed Richardson and Levis and picked Skoronski as a guard. At #20, they traded the pick to Pittsburgh. Mocks are fun to watch but they all seem to be rather predictable most of the time. Appreciate those who go off-script. Thanks, Rob.
Imagine if they take a short-armed guard at five after all this
Oh, that will be a fun reaction post
That’s not funny… primarily because I actually believe them capable of pulling a stunt like that.
They all flock to the same mock, then when the picks come in they can all say “nobody expected”. It is a circle eff on a grand scale.
2022: nobody expected the QBs to all fall so far.
Nobody.
It is almost credibility insurance for lameness, if everybody says the same thing then nobody gets lampooned for being bozonating.
I’m just beating a dead horse here.
The Seahawks have basically said “We are not drafting Carter”. I feel like McCloughan was talking about somebody when he spoke about somebody not giving 100% at practice, etc etc, and a pattern, and you don’t draft bad patterns. You can draft mistakes, but not bad patterns.
But let’s face it, not everybody reads this blog, a lot of people just don’t have decent information. I mean I watch some film, somewhere in the 0.1-1% as much as our host here.
To build on the patterns theme/repeated mistakes/mccloughan stating it’s the guys that make the same mistake over and over again….Carter has had repeated traffic infractions/run ins with the law. Prior to the accident. Clearly didn’t learn from them.
I actually think McCloughan was referring to GM’s who make the same mistakes over and over again by picking a bad character guy and then repeating it as opposed to the players with the same mistakes over and over again (though I suppose that automatically applies to guys with character issues as well). At least that’s how I read it.
What an excellent, well-laid-out read.
How it all goes down:
Tyree Wilson at 5. Excellent character, high motor, ideal size, position of need.
Jaxon Smith Njigba at 20. Immediate contributor and Lockett 2.0. No reported character issues.
Schmitz at 37. Good value. Position of need. Future leader with last year’s tackles known to be “quiet” in demeanor.
Avila at 52. Fighter with a nasty streak. Position of need. Doesn’t take plays off.
My thoughts on this:
Wilson at 5 — I don’t think he’s a scheme fit. He’s a prototype 4-3 power end, not an OLB in a 3-4 or a 5-tech. Great length. Can have success when playing through contact as a ‘bull in a china shop’. No evidence of poor character. But high motor? Didn’t see that. He has a lot of coasting snaps. No burst off the edge, no speed rush to speak of. He’s just a tantalising prospect because of his size/length.
JSN — I don’t see Lockett. Lockett ran a 4.40 at the combine. JSN refused to run, then ran something around a 4.50 on a fast track. The Seahawks love suddenness and speed at receiver. That isn’t JSN.
Schmitz — I think there’s a good chance they’ll draft him, possibly in the 20’s.
Avila — just don’t see it. Not the kind of player they have ever drafted. The scheme calls for lighter guards so he’s neither fitting that profile, nor is he explosive like Lewis and Haynes. I don’t see any chance of Seattle taking him, let alone in R2.
I like how Rob posits in a thought experiment moving Lucas to guard and taking a maybe better (?) Or at least the same level tackle and having a great line.
I listen to folks chortle and think that’s dumb as a box of rocks….shout out to the people who read this site and have fairly developed opinions about how bad the ideas are but also act like you’ve never read an article here…
But then not just the mock you are commenting but Seattle adjacent mocks are fine taking Skoronski in around 8-12 in a magic trade down scenario. It baffles the mind.
Rob,
Thanks for the post – so glad you’re reminding fans about McDowell debacle. (BTW, are you writing from Dubai? You should be enjoying your R&R).
While, as you pointed out, they are very different people, there are many similarities. Hopefully, the Hawks have learned from the arrogance of that pick. Scouts were similarly scratching their heads after interviews with Malik. They were similarly puzzled as to whether the inconsistency was a function of injuries or effort. And, the lack of maturity was similarly questioned. Too many red flags for an organization that was not only burned by the pick, but subsequently burned by the attempt to save the mistake with a failed trade for Sheldon Richardson.
Did anyone catch the horrific and ironic video of McDowell’s c-store episode and arrest where he shouted (50 times – count ’em) “I need a supervisor!”
Yes, we’ve also had success with questionable picks like Frank Clarke. Yes, we have strong leadership on the defense. And, yes we have a great team culture. But sometimes all of that isn’t enough. Jalen has had great teammates and leadership at Georgia, He’s had world class coaching on a championship team. The culture there seems supportive. And, yet he’s still unclear that you can change your fitness level in a matter of few days. He hasn’t been able to get in shape over multiple seasons. And he was unable to avoid the strip bar and drag racing when you know his agent is imploring him to simply stay low at the most critical juncture of his life.
He may turn out to realize his phenomenal talent. He may grow up in the right environment. I hope so for his sake. And, if he does, I pray its with another team.
I fear Jalen may also be in need of supervision.
I am — but need something to do in the evenings when the kids are asleep anyway 🙂
Refreshing and interesting to see Chris Mortenson reject The theory of Levis’s slide. Basically guarantees he’s going too 5. Says some teams love him and his interviews. Also noted his processing and other scores were high, just behind Young.
Have you got a link?
Let’s not forget Mort once told Russell Wilson he was going to be a Seahawk…
He’s right too, by the way
I think Seattle at five will be his floor
Oh interesting. That’s right!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2KMUqXYCIvc
I’ve seen Levis in person plenty, he might not pan out if the wrong organization takes him.
He is my QB1 though, and he is an all-pro with the Seahawks.
Only QB of the top 4 I don’t like as much is Young, because of size.
The great thing with Levis is you can see hime executing Seattle’s offense in 2021
This implies to me that you could run him as QB2 this year, as opposed to AR, who needs to be QB3/ healthy scratch on game day for year 1.
I found the video
It was the ESPN special on McShay’s mock
Mort did indeed say anyone who wants Levis has to trade up to #3
Which kind of validates what I’ve been thinking. Either someone trades into #3 with Arizona, or they take Anderson. Levis at #4. Then Seattle gets whoever’s left between Anderson & Richardson
Mort also implied Levis was second to Bryce Young on this newly promoted cognitive test
I believe it’s been around since 2015 or 2016. There are some pretty interesting data about how predictive it can be. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow are scored above the 90th percentile. The highest QB ratings are guys that scored above 90.
Last years’ crop scored bad…Of course none of them really made a name for themselves in the league. Of course except Brock Purdy — who scored really high.
It’s not a perfect science but there is something there…
Many are ripping Levis but I think it’s really over-kill at this point. Dude is more polished and pro-ready than most realize…
I think it’s just over reaction to a bad season. Most can’t be bothered to consider the circumstances or last years tape- which would have had him top 3 guaranteed in last years draft
It seems to be really personal, and I’m missing what about him rubs people the wrong way.
If I had to guess if you’re making tweets about OBJ coming out then it’s probably fairly likely you don’t like a guy who is:
Most likely better looking
Has their masters
Is in superior shape
And no matter how many twitter followers you amass will probably be more successful at actual life then you will ever be.
To be fair, Levis did at times make really poor choices even in that 2021 season. His footwork isn’t the cleanest. His pocket awareness can be shotty at times. Is it him or the line that was trying to protect him? Something broke down. How would he look under a better Oline? With better receivers to throw to?
I think people are ignoring some of the things that will translate to the NFL. He can make multiple reads. He is a processor. He can do all of the run stuff but not to the extent of what Richardson can do. He’s a legit top 5 prospect.
You pretty much nailed the technical aspect.
Yeah he makes mistakes. It’s just weird that richardson (whom I love as a prospect) gets rave re iews for his ridiculous ceiling…which is fair.
But there’s bruce feldman listing the deficiencies about kentucky as if it’s Levis fault that team has bare cupboards.
I’d agree the pocket awareness is suspect at times.
But jt osullivan on his recent qb rankings did mention something that caught my ear about Levis…..he might be more than richardson (?) The toughest gut it out qb in the draft.
I think it’s going to take some time for him to refine everything. I actually do think Indy is a really good landing spot. Shane Steichen does a great job implementing things his QB does well. He should be allowed to learn and grow and Indy will probably afford him that.
Levis actually is at his best in a rhythm and timing offense. Similar to Geno Smith. Like Geno — he can break down a little when the initial play breaks down.
RPOs and play action should work really well for Levis. What he struggles with is pressure. He doesn’t always recognize hot reads and doesn’t avoid pressure. Hence why people call him stiff in the pocket and say he lacks a feel for the QB position.
Love Mort. & if Levis is at #5 I’ll be extremely happy. One thing is for sure though; Levis will want to compete for QB1 this year.
Like Rob, I’m Anderson or QB at #5 if we stay there.
What do you make of a few draft pundits taking shots at Levis character and personality during his team interviews? Seems like an out of the blue type thing to bring up
I haven’t seen any of that. I’ve read a Chad Forbes tweet — that’s the same Chad Forbes who is a notorious twitter bull shit artist. He once reported Odell Beckham Jr was coming out as gay, then had to backtrack in embarrassing fashion. He just pumps stuff out there, similar to an Incarcerated Bob type.
I’ve also heard Matt Miller say the people he spoke to at the combine ranked Levis as the fourth best interviewer among QB’s. Which might be a problem if Stroud, Young and Richardson weren’t brilliantly charismatic and highly intelligent themselves.
I’ve interviewed Levis personally. I’ve spoken to people who know him. I’ve spoken to people at Kentucky. He is cherished at the school by everyone. Team mates, staff, coaches. He is super-intelligent, to the point he could probably do anything he wanted in life. He’s driven, committed and dedicated to football and putting himself in a position to succeed. He also played most of last season with a broken toe and several other injuries, gutting it out despite the shit sandwich he was given at UK.
Anyone who thinks Levis is a ‘character problem’ is talking bollocks, to put it bluntly.
This is what I guess my day will be: comparisons.
One excuse for Carter is that he was supposedly injured for much of last year and the games that he actually did well in were the ones where he was healthy. Sounds convenient.
Same people won’t listen to the fact that Levis was hurt most of the season and still carried the team all year.
I’ll say it now. I don’t think Houston will go QB.
I think they will be open to offers for a small trade down as long as they think they can get Anderson.
That’s my take.
As regulars know, I’ve been open to them going D-line at #2 and explained why when I mocked it weeks ago, before free agency. It makes perfect sense.
But since free agency, it’s felt like they’re setting everything up to go QB.
You did indeed mock it!
i just think Ryans will set up a good D this year, and look to draft a QB in a good environment next year.
If that happens, would Seattle need to move up to 3 as they would still be guaranteed a QB? I guess so if they had one in mind in particular.
Perhaps that’s why I keep hearing reports that AZ is burning up their phone lines trying to trade down. Perhaps they suspect Anderson will go at 2. I’m not sure why they’d want to trade now if that’s the case. If Anderson goes 2 and Stroud or Young are available at 3 I’d imagine a bidding war will ensue.
Malik Video here (sorry for the long link):
https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?&q=malik+mcdowell+i%27m+going+to+need+a+supervisor&&mid=DB65E1A9B8610ED1314CDB65E1A9B8610ED1314C&&FORM=VRDGAR
“Just wait for a QB next year.”
So…why would an opposing team trade with you if said QB is guaranteed to be great? If they do…what’s stopping them from saying “I want every pick in this and next draft?”
These people can’t see the second step on any of this – which is amazing for people who are high up at major companies (cough HB cough).
Fantastic write up and great summation of all the points you’ve been making here all along, Rob. You should vacation in Dubai more often!
I’ve got to believe there are at least 5-6 DTs that Seattle would take before Jalen Carter, which means he’s essentially off our board. Thank goodness.
The Seattle front office got on a plane flew across the U.S. to visit 5 of the top picks in this draft and Carter wasn’t one of them. That should speak volumes if as they said they were doing their due diligence. I think they saw enough at the combine and moved on. I get this feeling that Carter is a more stupid Albert Hayneworth. Albert at least got himself drafted and had an incredible career until he signed as a FA with Washington. Once he got his money that’s when everything went off the rails and he just disappeared. Carter already has that attitude and he hasn’t even played in the NFL yet. Dictating what teams you’ll talk to should set off red flags about this guys state of mind. I’d pass on this guy because he seems to feel he’s entitled.
Levis or Richardson one these guys is going to beat 5 and Seattle will take him and the media will blow its top off.
They were also planning to go to Texas Tech until it was revealed Tyree Wilson wasn’t working out
So that’s:
Anderson
Stroud
Young
Levis
Richardson
Wilson
They saw live, or intended to.
They didn’t go to Georgia. Good job, frankly.
I thought I would let you know being a Navy guy I’ve seen enough of they Persian Gulf and I would like to point out if it gets to hot outside in Dubai there’s a shopping mall there that you can go snow skiing there. I did it because I hate the sand and 110 degree temperature. Enjoy your vacation.
McShay the latest person talking up Jonathan Mingo as a second rounder
Remember where you heard it first…
Kiper talking up Juice Scruggs
You were definitely the first. 33rd Team even mocked him in the 1st round recently.
Just a couple weeks ago I was saying Mingo would be a great option for R2 and had someone reply that it would be a massive reach because PFF and PFN had him ranked in the 120s on their draft boards so he’s a 4th rounder. We are lucky here to follow a better draft expert than the masses are, thanks Rob!
Tape doesn’t lie
You don’t need to be an expert — you just have to watch it
Most people don’t. That’s the reality.
I think the key with Carter is the types of mistakes he’s making (and re-making). There’s a lot of flaws I think an NFL environment will fix, but being this lazy on the biggest of stages (draft, national championship) gives me no hope that the NFL will change him. Between this and the lies regarding the racing/crash investigation , I agree that while the Seahawks have/will take risks on a player with red flags he is not that type of player.
Go on to YouTube and do a search for Drew Rosenhaus. Then watch his press conferences with Terrell Owens and Antonio Brown. That’s what you are probably getting with Jalen Carter.
And the man doesn’t wash his hands after he pees.
Not in my taco truck!
I’ve been thinking the same type stuff about Rosenhaus. I get the feeling Rosenhaus is the worst agent for Carter, at least in the long run.
Albert Breer answered my question in his mailbag today, pretty relevant to this article:
I think it’s a certainty the Seahawks are one that he knows. He goes on to say he’s the best talent in the class and that will outweigh the negative for some teams and he thinks he’ll go in the top 10 with top 15 being the floor. As Rob has clearly laid out the Seahawks had an A+ draft class last year and all had great character – there’s no way they will deviate from that now.
I would not be surprised if Seattle has removed Carter from their draft board. Here is some video of Carter speeding through the downtown Athens area prior to the accident that killed a UGA teammate and coach…
https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/uga-football-deadly-crash-chadler-lecroy-speeding-video
Racing 100mph in SUVs….real smart there.
Don’t know if it’s been mentioned, but check out “The Road to NILion$” on YT.
Levis having fun and showing how smart he is.
Rob: Any thoughts on Jaren Hall. He seems to be generating quit a buzz.
Thought he started last season well and then his striking limitations stuck out like a sore thumb
Man there will be a lot of crow to eat if they pick Carter 😅 I’m getting on the mood that it’s Richardson or bust for me… That said, Anderson or Levis are fine by me. Stroud will be off the board but if Young is suddenly there, I would not trade down. But Richardson would be the player I want. It’s a whole new world of Seahawks football with that guy.
Yaya and Ade both coming in for visits. Yessss. Two of my favorites
Bring it on
I’ll not hide if it happens
I’m not worried nor anticipating having to
And to be fair, if they do pick him and it turns out like we expect, then at least we are eating crow with a healthy portion of I told you so.
Will be even more if they take a quarterback. Too many people insisted that it wasn’t even an option.
Lot of crow to war if he has a HOF career and the guy they picked busts. Possible but I‘d take my chances.
There won’t be any crow in that situation. At least not from any serious person.
Carter has given every team every reason to pass. I hope wherever he goes he does succeed. But those who do pass will be fully justified in doing so.
I keep coming back to the fact that they must have had a plan or idea once they traded Russell. They knew they would have some draft capital to move around and probably figured their native pick would be pretty good until Geno came out of nowhere. I assume they knew who Richardson was based off QB camps but not sure they would project him out to where he is now until this year when he got some game exposure. So, I’m going to think they were aware of Bryant, Stroud, Levis and maybe a few others based on tape from the previous year. The guy that was under the radar, who seemed to meet the physical traits and criteria and was coming off a great year – was Levis. I think we’d happily take him at 5 if he is there and there will be no slide for him.
Hawk mock I’m rate there with you in your thought process.
I know some fans think we don’t need a qb but it’s fairly clear beyond Pete’s “we have two number one’s,” comment they themselves had no idea what Geno would really do nor the rest of the league as noted by the late signing fairly cheap one year deal both parties came to.
Exactly. Why trade a franchise QB if you have no plan to replace them, and end up in QB hell like they were in before Russ? This is literally their plan coming to fruition, working out better than expected since we made the playoffs AND have the #5, and yet so many people can’t see it… Maybe the the real smokescreen is that there is no smokescreen.
If this is truly the plan they move up to #2 or #3 and lock down your QBoTF.
I suspect they might be trying, but there’s a few big roadblocks. Like Houston probably wants one of the QB’s themselves and Arizona potentially not wanting to trade with a division rival no matter what. And Indy of course probably also wants a QB. I fear we may end up “stuck” with Anderson if Houston stays put and Az trades with someone else. It’s a real shame Carter bombed the offseason, another defensive player in the top 5 would’ve really helped.
They really should have paid the freight and moved up to #1. The fact that cha reported a couple weeks ago that JS was “Blindsided” by Carolina trading up seems baffling to me when Rob predicted that would happen days before it actually happened.
John Schneider not reading SDB is malpractice!!!
*then
100% correct IMO!
Neal says goodbye to Seattle and heads to Tampa Bay to play.
Great piece Rob. One slight correction on the McDowell note “sinking deep into round two”…Seattle took him 35th overall, OUCH.
I agree that the Seahawks have some interest in Richardson, but wonder if he might be available a little later than most pundits think right now. Remember at this same time last year, nobody could have comprehended Malik Willis falling to round 3. Richardson, despite what he brings to the table from a testing standpoint, does have some pretty big drawbacks (accuracy, footwork, etc.) that may lead to him sliding a bit.
I didn’t mean to say deep as in ‘deep into round two’ — rather sinking deep from his initial projection in the top-10
I graded him in round three and thought if he went earlier than that it would’ve been a crap pick
Richardson and Willis are not comparable as prospects
Trey Lance is a probably a better comp to AR. He went #3 overall with a boatload given up to get him.
Lance had a lot of the same issues (accuracy, footwork, inexperienced) but not nearly the upside and measurables.
I don’t see that as a comparison either to be honest
I think Richardson is head and shoulders above Lance
Meant as a draft value comp, not a direct player comp.
Could see a team giving up a lot to move up to 3 despite the concerns about experience, accuracy, etc.
As a player comp, I agree with you and Lou that there really isn’t one.
There isn’t really a comp to Richardson, and that is kinda the point.
I agree there is no comp for Richardson. My first thought was Steve McNair, but then I went and watched highlights. Mcnair looked like a finished product. Richardson has some similar highlights and that might be close to his ceiling but is not a comp heading into the draft.
Bob Condotta on Bryce Young:
“Would be stunned if he got past five.”
https://twitter.com/bcondotta/status/1643706055275454464
In case he slips to 3? Or is Houston looking to trade down? My nails are going to be down to the bone by the time draft day hits.
I’ll try to not reiterate things that have already been said earlier, and luckily this blog has the most insightful discussion in all of sports fandom that I’ve seen so can skip 90% of my takes. The elephant in the room, in my opinion is that everyone wants Carter to succeed, absolutely nobody wants him to have off field issues, or flame off a roster so they hide him in a nice city, with a player coach. Not to disparage other city’s but can you imagine Carter in a Detroit, Vegas, Chicago with millions of dollars and his only pier group he’s comfortable with being around all to available? I keep mocking him to the Titans simply because Vrabel will demand his respect, and maybe the best version of him possible. Beyond the QB debate, the where does Carter fit is the most compelling storyline of the draft and I can’t help but feel the Carter to Seattle mocks have missed a huge chance for an interesting debate. I think his ceiling is Chicago as Poles is desperate to look like a genius after trading the first overall pick and still getting the #1 on their board, but it’s freaking Chicago so he’d need around the clock supervision. If you base his landing spots on City’s he may stay out of trouble in, and cross that with strong disciplinary head coaches the list of where he goes slides quite away down, Titans, Packers, NE? I’m convinced they put him on Seattle because it’s good for Carter, not good for Seattle.
Matt Miller was on Brock and Salk this morning and they asked him about their “nightmare scenario” in which Levis is the one of the big 5 available.
Do you draft Levis at #5? No
Who do you take? Jalen Carter
Why? Because they’ve taken chances on guys in the past with character concerns (Clark, McDowell), you have Bobby, Reed, Diggs, Dre’Mont to show him how to be a pro. And of course Pete, the bad-character whisperer of the NFL.
Why was Carter not more productive if he’s the greatest DT prospect in 10 years? Teams schemed against him and Georgia rotates their DL…
Someone was talking about Brian Bresee and how to rate him. They talked about reasons VS excuses. Put his in the ‘reasons’ category – torn ACL, Kidney infection, shoulder surgery, death of his little sister.
Sure seems like draft media has confused excuses for reasons with Carter.
I’m honestly a bit envious of Matt Miller. Good for him for being just a guy at the right place and time during the sort of explosion of football coverage and turning a bunch of bad takes into a career.
Schemed against him…..so good. I always wondered why teams didn’t scheme against reggie white, sapp, or in the cornfield nothingness of Nebraska when Suh was out just destroying teams.
So stupid for those coaches. I mean if you could just scheme against a player why wouldn’t you….
The power of twitter
MM and DJ owe a lot to it
Yep. And social media is a “job,” (seriously time wise) I’m not willing to invest in unlike those two.
. Great point about reasons vs excuses. When your agent is the only guy defending your character and your college teammates and coaches are absolute crickets something is seriously up.
Several great comments above. Like somebody said a little farther up, ” …best comment section on the internet”
One thing to add to the Carter issue is testing. If he is a “Generational talent” then run a 40 and light up the 10 yard split. Do it all and show you deserve to be a first rounder-if not a top five pick.
I think in the end Carter will have generated the highest Talk to Talent ratio ever in the draft. Meaning, here we are talking about him-again- and he might just suck.
Run a 40? Pretty sure he’d cramp up walking a 40.
Talk to talent ratio. The tttr. Man I hope this seriously becomes a thing like pay the iron price. Not just this year but every year.
Seriously, how do these clowns have jobs? They give the most lazy clickbait takes that are so disconnected from reality
I still don’t really understand the whole “he can stay out of trouble in Seattle” thing. For one, Seattle is a big city with all the fun and problems of a big city. There is plenty of trouble to get into. Being geographically isolated from other big cities doesn’t mean it’s nothing but candy, rainbows, and puppy dogs. For another, someone looking to get into trouble can find it anywhere. Alcohol and drugs are rampant in small towns, and like you saw with the bodycam video of Carter, small town cops are inclined to look the other way so they don’t become part of a national news story. And to that end, what small town even has an NFL franchise that would fit that narrative, aside from Green Bay? Carter already managed to get into plenty of trouble in Athens, GA, which is smaller than every other NFL city. Can’t say that I’ve been there, but I’m quite certain that even Green Bay has a nudie bar and a Waffle House (or whatever their equivalent is) and a road connecting the two.
Excellent write-up, Rob. I’m actually okay with any of the consensus top 5 players. I will admit I’d much rather have Richardson over any of the others and I hope the Hawks agree and do everything they can to get him. If it takes moving up to #2 or #3, I’d do it in a heartbeat. I’m still not convinced that the top two will be Stroud and B Young. I could easily see CAR taking Richardson or Houston taking W. Anderson. I think ARZ will trade out even if Anderson is there. They need volume at this point and they should get a good haul for the #3 pick. IND seems destined to get W Levis in almost every scenario I’ve looked at. This would be my worst case scenario by far:
CAR – A Richardson
HOU – W Anderson
ATL – CJ Stroud (trade up w ARZ)
IND – W Levis
SEA – B Young
I believe you’ve stated before that in a scenario such as this, you think they would take B. Young. I don’t have a problem with it, just wondered if you would consider anyone else in this position?
Hey look a mock that actually has Seattle taking a QB!
It’s Hooker, but hey, progress.
https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/news/seattle-seahawks-mock-draft-hendon-hooker-qb-rumors-tennessee-pete-carroll-geno-smith
Started the article talking about Geno not being a long-term solution because of his age so the solution is….drafting a quarterback with a big knock because of his age!
Perspective: if you take Hooker in the first round, he’ll be 30 when his contract is up.
3rd round? OK
#5 overall? Hell to the no.
Hooker is a waste of a pick for us. We already have Lock. Lock is healthy and has been in our system for a year and he’s only a year older than Hooker.
Also Hooker has a whole host of issues folks gloss over. He’s got better touch than Richardson who does rifle the ball. But he has to learn an actual real pro offense.
AR would be finishing his 5-year rookie contract at the current age of Hooker. Think about that.
What if Richardson ends up not being good enough to make it to the end of his rookie deal?
I appreciate this confirmation on Carter – i think he’d not be a great fit for the Hawks, and i don’t see us taking him based on your analysis.
The difference I see in mocks that take Will Anderson VS QB at 5 is that it feels like the whole rest of the draft suffers when we start with a QB.
Lets hypothetically say we go (QB), DE, C, DT, RB, S, CB
If we start that order with a QB, then each of the rest of the positions are 1 notch worse. If we start with Will Anderson, then each of those positions are 1 step better – but we don’t get a QB. Like when we add a #3 hitter to a baseball lineup. The whole rest of the line-up gets one notch better, your old #3 becomes your #4, your #4 becomes your #5 and so on.
I suppose you could argue if they hit on the QB, we won’t really be concerned by that
I’d argue without a qb at #5, the whole draft looks very lacking, as well as the ceiling of the team for the future. I feel like the mocks that pass on Anderson just have no depth. Almost like they were auto-fill drafts. That could be why they seem lacking. Because of Rob we have other players that we know about and can get excited over. 95% of most mocks don’t know guys outside of round 2.
Passing on a quarterback is like not having your ace and your best hitter. Angels without Ohtani (since Trout is always hurt anyways).
I strongly disagree. With the picks we have I find it quite easy to fill out a draft after taking Richardson at 5. The only difference between the 2 draft scenarios you reference for me, is that if I take Anderson at 5 my luxury high pick(20) gets spent on a wr or te. If I take Richardson I usually grab de or edge at 20. I value QB over wr and TE personally.
I think we agree. I’m saying (and I have resigned that I have done this to myself) that if we don’t get a quarterback, the draft is going to feel a little weak to me.
I think it is easier to fill out the roster completely with that quarterback. If they pass at 5, I see the team’s future fire power fairly weak.
But like I said, I hitched my wagon to quarterback or bust. My own fault.
I don’t see how this squares. Pick five is a gift.
Starting at 20 is a great spot for talent in this draft.
This process is only true if the day the draft happens each player picked responds according to slotting.
Let’s take TE. What if the TE Seattle drafts at say 37 is actually tge TE they want? Not what boards say is the 20th player or the “best,” one. UT rather the one that fits what they want in a TE.
Maybe a better example is Kancey. He’s rated decently high on many boards. Many hawks pundits love him. But what if Seattle literally doesn’t have him in their board because of arm length and they draft Ade Ade at 20. Selecting qb at five doesn’t change your ability to take preferred DE, C, TE, DT.
A carryover from the last thread….
6 pounds for a Pepsi Rob?
Good Lord, even Hawaii ain’t that outrageous.
That’s an awfully heavy Pepsi.
I replied to some Facebook mock draft that had chosen Carter as our pick, and so I replied that was a lazy pick, and Hawks aren’t taking him, as they are only picking high character kids, not lazy thugs…
So then I was belittled and called a racist…
But, point is that so many still think he is the pick to be had by us at #5…
Awesome.
Really really starting to hate the classless group think troll behavior of seahawks fans.
Not sure these are Seahawks fans.
That’s why I refer to characters like that as “fans”. Unfortunately, there seems to be a lot of those type of “fans” in this fanbase for whatever reason and lack any critical thinking skills. They also collectively partake in cognitive dissonance.
May have been how you said it.
“Thug” is a pretty loaded term, and commonly used in place of other more egregious racist terms. If you meant thug in the dictionary sense, there are no reports of anything that Carter has done to suggest he’s a violent criminal. Questionable character as a football player due to work ethic and poor judgement in engaging in dangerous behavior off the field don’t add up to describing him in this manner.
My definition of a thug is a lawless person
I’ve since read that he had been previously warned about his racing habits, and yet chose to ignore them.
Not suggesting violent behavior per se, but being involved in a situation that resulted in very violent deaths doesn’t scream model citizen. But rather a disregard for the law. Especially a month after getting a lawful “suggestion”?
Thug is commonly used as a derogatory term to describe a young black man, usually as a stand in for the N word.
I’m calling out a lot of fans with using loaded language. No reason to not be sober in how you describe prospects or how you engage with others.
I think that’s broadly a good way to be.
For sure.
But especially within the Seahawks fandom, I still have close friends that I shared floor space and carpooled with from the Pittsburgh Super Bowl. A group of Seahawks fans I experienced in another city outside the PNW passed a hat on Sunday to help out a family that experienced a huge tragedy.
I expect a lot better.
Thug is a very loaded term. Carter has character concerns, but calling him a thug doesn’t seem warranted.
I never hear someone call a white person/kid a thug.
Black men are called that to perpetuate the stereotype that they’re criminals.
Link to MSD pod
https://theathletic.com/podcast/69-man-2-man/?episode=227
After hearing this, I consider the question about whether the Seahawks take Carter at 5 or 20 or 37 closed.
I identify with Carter, I remember being 21, I had to fail big to realize my potential in life. Hope he gets it, but he may have to hit his bottom to ‘get it’.
“I don’t know why people who were mocking Levis in the top-five two weeks ago are suddenly dropping him into the teens without explanation.”
Because there are questions about Levis’ in-game judgment leading to interceptions and his ability to complete deep passes despite having a howitzer for an arm. This is after integrating his supporting cast and coaching. See Mike Sando’s interview with Randy Mueller on The Athletics’ pro football podcast. I’m not saying that I agree or disagree, just that this is the landscape.
And if that was an issue for people this week why wasn’t it an issue 2-3 weeks ago? That’s the point
I’d also knock Levis for the workout stuff. Makes me a little nervous when I see QB’s who look like they want to be bodybuilders.
But he didn’t look like that at his pro day
https://youtu.be/E995ZkBz3UQ
Bruce Feldman takes a few seconds to explain why he has Levis lasting until 20.
Basically the same things we’ve heard. He lost his OL, his WR, his OC. And that caused some concerns…? I guess..?
You here this expression more on politics and business but it applies here.
Feldman says the quiet part outloud in that clip.
We all love Stroud. But come on. Multiple ( 4 at least) first round WR’s he’s played with. Probably going to be multiple first round olinemen he’s played with….there’s a guard that Walter football currently ranks top ten for next year.
And then there’s Levis. Two coordinators in two years. Zero help this year.
One wonders how he’d do with say three TE sets. Bookend tackles. An even better running back. And two super productive WR’s…..
Compelling argument from Feldman then…
Feldman has us trading pick 20 to Tenn for 41 and 72. Its like a 5 year old came up with that.
Is he a big titans fan?
Just checked the most basic of draft math. They don’t have a fourth. Even if they gave us the 2nd, 3rd….added on their 5th and 6th. They’d nearly be a future third round pick off on value.
I have not liked every trader John move but I don’t think he’s ever been completely rooked on value like that before.
Imagine dropping 21 spots in the draft and completely out of the first round… for a R3 pick
It’s like one of those mad team-centric mocks on a ‘Fansided’ website
Oh dear…
Nothing learned from the Justin Herbert sweepstakes, Mr Feldmann!
As soon as I read Levis making the CSC Academic All-America Division, I knew I wanted him in Seattle. In split seconds on the turf the tool between the ears matters.
I want them to call Houston.
Bring in an offensive HC, and let the future begin.
Rob, or maybe anyone who uses Twitter – Can you ask Lance about Marte Mapu from Sac State?
Maybe Platypus saw some of him at Senior Bowl? Apparently was one of the standouts there.
Digging in the weeds for bigger bodied safeties and came across him. He had a laundry list of awards, including Big Sky Defensive POY, and 1st team all-American (FCS) from a few outlets.
Safety in college that played LB in the Senior Bowl. 6’3 210-215 lbs.
Looks like he’s had official visits with: Packers, Vikings, Bills, Bucs, 9ers, more?
Sound like he had the same injury -torn pec doing bench – that Skinner had. Surgery done and should/could be ready for camp.
Best write-up I found below. Next to nothing on YouTube.
https://steelersdepot.com/2023/04/2023-nfl-draft-player-profiles-sacramento-state-lb-marte-mapu/
Some quotes from various articles about him:
He was one of PFF’s highest-graded safeties in run defense and also graded out well as a tackler
the 6-foot-3, 217-pound linebacker clocked 19 mph multiple times during his time at the Senior Bowl. Pairing this with the fact Mapu has shown to be very physical in every possible play, he has the potential to be a nightmare for the likes of tight ends, running backs and slot receivers.
His specialty appears to be dropping back in pass coverage to shut down the middle zone. That, or he can easily man up on a running back and the ever-evolving hybrid tight ends and keep pace with ease.
“Long, rangy, and physical are all the key adjectives to describe Mapu’s game. Serving a plethora of roles for the Sacramento State Hornets, Mapu’s physical traits were used to their fullest extent, lining up primarily as a nickel safety but also consistently making appearances as a stack backer, force player, and even as a single high safety. His athleticism quickly jumps out on film, pairing elite closing speed with innate lower-body fluidity that allows him to be extremely effective in both the pass and run game.”
Decent idea for the #198 or 237 slot in my future mock drafts. Special teams and depth guys with upside in that range.
Draft Network has him at #138 overall, PFN doesn’t even have him in their sim, but did a write-up on him along with Mauch, Kraft and other FCS guys.
I would bet money that Carter fails his conditioning test at training camp, wherever that is.
1a) Richardson: can’t deny the freak athletic ability. Rob has layed out beautifully how red-shirting is the best path for AR as a player and Seattle as a franchise. Cards would need to stay at 3, and Indy has to like Levis > AR.
1b) Anderson: great consolation for Seattle if 4 QB’s go in order. Would be a long shot given history but this could be the year.
1c) Levis: greatly underestimated in the media, but how smart is Indy with Irsay involved with decisions? Could be Seattle starter in 1-2 yrs. I’m less convinced they chose Levis here if he’s still available. Might be a trade back with someone like Titans who really want him.
Still have some prior draft PTSD where Seattle goes in a complete off the chart pick.
Raiders taking Carter off their Big Board. ESPN reporting it.
One of the better mocks I’ve seen out there. Some different names in the 1st round. Some highlights are QB’s going with the top four picks, TEN trading with AZ to get #3 & Hooker at #19 to Tampa. Hawks select Anderson at #5 & Mazi Smith at #20.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/nfl-mock-draft-2023-hendon-hooker-to-buccaneers-lions-jump-at-opportunity-to-pick-bijan-robinson/
Mazi at 20 is another one of those where I just want to say, no, just no.
Rob, I have 2 questions for you:
Google sports is reporting that Frank Clark will be signing with Seattle. Besides the salary hurdle, what are your thoughts?
At what point would you use a pick on Carter? Rd 4? Rd 5? Any?
Who is reporting it?
Carter for me is in the ‘let someone else go there’ category
Do you have a link? I’ve never even heard of Google sports.
Cap space is going to be the issue with any signing like this. We already have negative $3.6 million in cap space, and I believe Cha said that we need to allocate around $6M for injuries and practice squad. That puts us at almost $9.6 million in the red.
It would surprise me if they made any other signings before the draft without doing some corresponding move that created cap space.
A couple ideas that have been posited are
trading Fant during or after the draft to a team that misses out (free’s up $6.5M)
converting some of Lockett’s base salary to bonus (up to $5.69M)
extend Nwosu (up to ~$5M)
We probably need to do two of those, just to be cap compliant, and all 3 to be in the market for signing anyone over a veteran minimum type deal. Frank made $71M in his last 4 years with KC. I highly doubt we can afford him.
It might be from a BleacherReport article “placing the remaining free agents with teams” and had Poona and Clark coming back to Seattle.
It set Twitter on fire for 5 minutes earlier today, but wasn’t a report. Just matchmaking.
Rob can you clarify a point you’ve made several times: that Schneider has a “type” and Richardson/Levis fit that type. Reason for my question:
– he’s drafted two QB’s in 13 yrs, Wilson and McGough. Neither are comps to the two this year
– he was supposedly interested in both Allen and Mahomes but didn’t pull the trigger on either, sat tight
– wasn’t the decision maker at his prior stops, someone else made those picks
– even if he did want to pull the trigger, does Pete’s position re QB’s trump his, meaning, rather than considering Schneider’s type, should we be considering Pete’s type.
McGough was a 7th, so don’t regard him. John targets big arm, very mobile quarterbacks (not necessarily athletic but capable to being a threat). Russ was exactly that, as are Richardson, Levis, and Stroud.
John didn’t have the control to make those choices. That was still Pete. He wanted to trade Russ to draft Josh Allen 1st overall.
This is the only job where he has been in a decision-making level. Only problem is that Pete has still been above him.
It looks like Schneider is now in charge of drafting (we hope). Tendencies changed last year. Either way, Pete and John have more or less been on the same page or close enough for no issues. And that would be Pete’s preferred type of quarterback too. He loves the deep ball, but play action ability. I think they are on the same page now.
He said if mahomes was there when they picked or he could get a reasonable trade up done he would take him. KC beat them to the trade and had a closer native pick. I don’t think you can knock him on not getting that one done. As for Allen, if I remember Cleveland turned down the offer and the slight rumor if it cause Russ to throw a fit and insist on a no trade clause in his extension the following season.
He doesn’t have to pull the trigger (which was impossible anyway) to like Mahomes and Allen a ton
Traded a lot for Whitehurst
Wilson big arm
Lock big arm
Could the Cardinals ever use this opportunity to pivot off of Kyler Murray? Is that even possible cap-wise?
New FO and coach, could they ever trade Murray for draft capital and just pick a QB at 3?
They can’t afford to take that dead cap hit for at least 2 years. And they won’t get anything for him currently. No one has any idea how his health is. Not to mention, who is going to want him?
The roster is too talent-starved. Their best bet is to shore up the rest of the team until they can get rid of Kyler. And can you imagine what kind of headache Kyler would be if they drafted another quarterback?
Some people have discussed this here before but the general consensus is they’re too tied to him financially for at least 2 more years and he would create such a toxic environment if they drafted his replacement high the new FO there wouldn’t survive it.
2024 Dead cap hit: 81 million dollars (!!!)
2025 dead cap hit : 33 million dollars (!!)
2026 dead cap hit: 20 million dollars (!)
AZ is a cheap a– team. I doubt they have the stomach to pay kyler a brain bending amount of money to not play for them. Additionally what’s he even worth? An oft injured non-improving qb? I know he’s extremely accurate. But he’s stuck in that 27 tds 10 ints world and has yet to win anything of note.
Hearing some chatter about Frank Clark coming back to the Hawks.
Shirley this would finally mean cutting Adams to make space. Just kidding. That’ll never happen.
Surely it would, but don’t call me Shirley.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit reading mocks…
😀
Really? I guess you never know. IIs he a scheme fit though? t is a little interesting that Clark (and for that matter all of Hawk’s d-lineman from last season that are FA’s – Poonah, Harris, Q-Jeff, Woods) are all still out there. Other than Woods visiting CLE, haven’t heard them linked anywhere.
Julian Love aside, it seems they’ve been finding guys that know the new scheme or that they know they can trust.
Hope they commit to a scheme one way or another…
Was thinking about how Will Anderson would fit into our defense immediately. As in who is he bouncing off the starting lineup. I would assume Darrell Taylor? So Taylor and Mafe won’t get too much playtime.
Let him compete against Mafe and DT. If this happens then it’s a very strong quartet of Edges.
It’s only a problem if the team can manage the snap distribution properly.
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((it may be a problem))
It’s only a problem if the team
cancannot manage the snap distribution properly.Seems like Darnell Washington fits Seahawks offensive scheme better than other tight ends. May have to go at 20 if they want him.
I wouldn’t say that
I still think you could get Washington at 52. Personally I like La Porta better as a fit.
I think washington at 52 is more realistic than 20.
I think in a post Russ era specifically here on SDB but certainly other hawks sites we might be more obsessed with TE’s than the league as a whole.
I looked recently at draft history since 2010, the Pete and John era, and it’s not that many TE’s going in the first round. It’s right around 10. A whole bunch in the second on out.
For fans of Washington, and I get it, there’s a huge difference in moving richardson with his questions so high vs a TE.
I think TE is absolutely a position we should monitor for the draft. But even our own team doesn’t put a premium draft wise on the position.
Agree on Laporta. I’d add Kraft too. And obviously Mayer but not sure if he’s in play. All three move better than Washington despite the combine #’s he showed.
Suppose the first four picks are QBs. If the Hawks did bring Frank Clark back what happens then. What happens then? How does that work. The obvious pick is Will Anderson Jr. Doesn’t make sense to bring back Frank Clark. Last time I check A’Shawn Robinson was still on the board.
To me it makes more sense to sign Robinson instead of Bobby Wagner.
Sure.
I think the front office saw that LBs were really thin in FA and the draft. They wanted to make sure they had players at the LB position. You still need young players but it’s a less pressing need and you don’t need to force anything in the draft now.
For interior linemen there are still players available. They read the market right. Robinson is still there. Shelby Harris and Al Woods are still out there. These players are going to be really cheap after the draft. You reassess after the draft to see what you still need to fill.
Clark isn’t a fit and the Hawks don’t have the money for him. He’s not coming back.
I guess i see Washington in the same mold of Richardson in that his combination of size, speed and strength is in a qhole different realm than the other TE. Like Richardson his raw potential will be too much to pass on in relation to the other TE.
Not really
He is one of several players who tested brilliantly at the position
He looks laboured running routes
Good blocker on the move
Plenty of upside but at no point did I watch him and think he’s a difference maker
There are two times I’ve thought he looked like a difference maker. That one handed catch at the combine and when he hurdled that dude against Oregon.
Those two plays are very much in conflict with the rational part of my brain with him.
Extend Nwousu to save cap space.
Trade Fant to save cap space.
Draft Richardson, Levis, or Anderson.
Draft Kincaid or Washington at TE.
Profit.
I have a question. John had apparently identified Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes as targets in their respective drafts. Let’s say they have identified one QB as a target in this draft. If they are willing to trade up and do not succeed in getting him, do they then take a QB at 5 as a consolation pick?
I’ve been working under the assumption that if they like these QB’s, they’ll probably like the top four
Just saw the absolute worst draft take in my life. I suffered and now you all have to, too!
“Hard pass on Dawand Jones; no interest whatsoever in a 400lb tackle who can’t move and will probably eat himself out of the league.”
This is what we’re up against, y’all. It’s no wonder SDB is a safe haven for so many of us.
Eat himself out of the league???
He didn’t see the guy with his shirt rolled up at the Senior Bowl then. 370lbs and carried it better than most OL’s carry 300
I have no idea. Truly baffled. Talking about the man like he’s Jared Lorenzen or something.
Clearly someone who’s just looked at the listed weight and knows nothing about the player
I liked Dawand Jones until I saw his combine performance. He’s tall, massive and has a large wingspan, but I think he’ll struggle with speed rushers. Zach Banner ruined me on the concept of players with his size and profile.
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zach-banner/32004241-4e70-1016-865d-48751296db50
Zach Banner doesn’t seem like a very good comp tbh. He was actually one of those guys with a weight problem. His profile says he had ballooned up to 385 at one point. Even just looking up pictures of him, he has a sloppy frame and is nowhere near as lean as Dawand Jones, and Jones weighed in a full 20 lbs heavier at the combine to boot. I won’t pretend to have ever scouted Banner, but Jones looks shockingly light on his feet for a man his size, and while he may not fit in a scheme that requires a lot of mobility, his ridiculous, unprecedented length can still be effective against speed rushers. Just think about the literal distance a rusher will have to run just to get around him.
I never watched Banner and thought, ‘NFL starter’
I sat down and watched Jones and after one game, thought this guy is a first rounder.
Dawand Jones is the one player that “is not a need” that I’d love for us to somehow get, even if we let a position of need unfilled for next year.
Putting Dawand at RT and kicking Abe Lucas inside, coupled with a new C would give our future QB one of the best o-lines of the league.
No thanks. I’m done with moving players around on the line.
Lucas had a very solid 1st season at RT. Very solid. I’d like him to stay there and improve again in y2.
If we want a guard let’s draft one.
Also, there are plenty of other postions we need to address.
Rob’s said many times that the Rams would draft tackles and shift them to guard. So shifting a tackle inside makes sense for our offense.
Honestly if Dawand Jones could be the best possible RT in history, our running game would doom other teams. He certainly has the traits to be better than anyone else, and Lucas would dominate as a RG.
I’d perhaps rather have Kancey, McDonald, Ade Ade or someone else, but the idea of Dawand Jones on our team is certainly enticing.
My dream draft
Trade with Tennessee for pick 11, 2024 First and Pick 11 of R2 in 2023
R1 P:11: Christian Gonzalez
R 1 P20 : Dalton Kincaid
R 2 P5: Will McDonald
R 2 P11 : John Schmitz
R 2 P 20: Zay Flowers
Wait for next qb class which is far superior Drake May and Caleb Williams are superior prospects then any qb in 23 have two firsts plus can trade Geno to get 2024 qb prospects.
Ok, so what happens when the top-two teams in the draft next year both need QB’s and don’t want to trade down?
What happens if ‘far superior’ May and Williams get picked apart like the 2023 group (remember, the class everyone raved about a year ago?). Do you then wait another year? And another?
Christian Gonzalez won’t last to #11. So who are you taking in that spot having traded out of the top-five?
Exactly! I have been trying to see what next years QB crop looks like compared to these four and I don’t see how you don’t just pull the trigger on one of them if they are there. Unless someone comes out of no where like Burrow did only Maye and Williams are the QBs next year. With how bad Arizona And LA are right now you have to assume we will be second again in the division with a small chance at the playoffs. That means the Seahawks will be picking between 12 and 20 again next year. How would we move up with less draft capital without trading a player like DK? This is a no or never moment for the team and they just need to ignore the noise and get one these four quarterbacks.
Caleb Williams.
In what way, shape, or form is he better than Young or Stroud? Or even Hendon hooker? It’s not stats. It’s not big wins.
I know I’m way out on an island with this take but there’s getting to be a bit of evidence that Reilly QB’s might be system dependent for those huge numbers.
Drake Maye also played in an Air Raid with a very limited playbook (27 plays of Doom was the nickname of the old OC) He also has a new OC this year, and could completely tank like Van Dyke this year.
Did not know that about the OC.
Qb prognostication is one of my favorite things. For years I’ve tried to discern metrics that make provable outcomes. Thus far I’m at a blank.
I am sure of one thing and only one thing. Excessively high numbers in college aren not a direct like for like carryover in the pros.
This has been my exact argument with so many people online when they say wait for next year, why on earth would we do that having no idea where we’re going to sit and then like you say the 2 worst teams may very well need QBs and if so there not going to trade with us, get one while you can
Another example you won lottery of 5 million. will you spend the money or buy another lottery tickets worth of 5 million?
You think if they were superior you’d spell their name right?
I have a working theory that the 2024 QB class is superior crowd hasn’t actually watched these prospects play, couldn’t place the prospects with schools (no google). They also can’t articulate how they know that a team in place to select this *far* superior QB would trade out of said spot.
What would the Bengals demand in a trade for Joe Burrow? Are they willing to pay that? It would be a hell of a lot more than two firsts.
ThT is a nightmare. No QBotF, no DT/DL, Kincaid at 20? How are you going to get Maye/williams unless by tanking?
Ventrell Miller met with the Hawks
https://twitter.com/_RyanFowler_/status/1643971948605579264
Love that guy
Glad to see we keep looking at LBs, Wagner isn’t a long-term solution and who knows if Brooks stays here or not.
How did he test, I know that you had concerns…
What am I missing on the cap?
They keep talking about Free Agents, hoping to get some guys back, yet don’t seem to have a lot of options to expand the cap. I understand trading Fant but that requires someone to play ball. Same with extending players like Nwosu- perhaps he’d rather test FA. They have no leverage in any of these talks either.
Cut Adams, then what?
They will need about $10 million between their rookie class and practice squad.
They have lots of options but it doesn’t feel that way.
They can restructure Diggs and Lockett to keep their heads above water.
I still think at some point they will approach Adams about lowering his 2023 cap hit. The first offseason activity is coming up and they’ll get a close up look at his progress. Then the draft and the first rookie camp.
Pete stumped the culture thing being a selling point at the owner’s meetings a few days ago. I would very much hope that is how they try to sell Adams on taking less money in 2023. We’ve stood by you, rehabbed your injuries, signed you to a major deal, let’s work together to help each other keep being successful.
Is it fair to think of those restructures as silver bullets? Like not the ideal way to solve cap problems and last resort sort of thing?
Yes. It restricts options for 2024 and 2025.
It is not ideal, but they have done some good to great things this offseason. Dre, Love, Reed, Geno, exiting some roster dead weight, etc.
There is a price to be aggressive, and in a couple months the bill comes due.
We still don’t have the complete roster puzzle filled out yet. The draft will be huge.
If they have a 2022-like draft, I’d give them a B+/A- for the offseason. If they can talk Jamal Adams into taking a pay cut to cover some cap shortfalls, A-/A.
And if they cut him post 6/1 I’d give them an A+. But alas….
(appreciate the setup cha)
Cha, are you familiar with how void years work?
I don’t think Seattle has used them in the past, where I know some teams have been quite liberal with them. My understanding is that they don’t really have any salary tied to them, but are a means to spread out the pro-rated bonus money even farther.
There has to be a limit on it though, right? You can’t give someone a 2 year deal with 8 void years on it, in order to spread out a $10M signing bonus at $1M/year through 2033 can you? Maybe you can, just knowing that you are still going to take an $8M dead cap hit when the contract is up.
Does adding void years pretty much ensure that you’ll be taking a dead cap hit unless you extend that contract?
Yes. You can pretty much do whatever you want with void years. But you nailed it – you’re guaranteeing dead money in the future. It’s the ultimate credit card strategy. It’s a bet that the cap will keep rising (because it will) and that $1 in 2023 cap money will be worth $.92 in 2024, $.88 in 2025, and so on.
Go to OTC and look at the Eagles. They have void money out to 2030!
The Seahawks avoid them like the plague typically, but they did dip into the kitty when they had to adjust for the cap shortfall in the COVID year due to no fan ticket and gameday revenue. Interestingly, they put almost exactly the same amount of void money on their cap as the shortfall that year. So in essence, they used void years to “normalize” their cap so they could operate like it was a typical cap year for them.
For them, it was like taking the emergency credit card out of their sock drawer and using it to pay their electric bill because they were short.
Meanwhile, teams like the Eagles were shopping at Saks Fifth Avenue with theirs.
It’s an option for the Seahawks this year. I would rank it about the same level as restructuring players.
Thanks! You’re right, the Eagles are a crazy case study. If you start clicking through their top (cap) guys, every one of them has 2-4 void years on their contracts!
The hard part Brodie is, once you get on that train, it is painful to get off. So if you’re going to do it, you kind of have to go all in.
The Seahawks only put like $12-15m on void years due to that COVID year, and then tried to get back to their standard ways after that. But that meant they hae less money in those years with the voids because the bills came due.
Here is Cam Jordan’s contract with 4 void years. It looks like if/when they void the last years, he’ll be a $23.3M dead cap hit.
The cap hit & dead money continue to change in the right columns throughout the void years though, so that’s kind of throwing me.
https://overthecap.com/player/cameron-jordan/1481
Interview just done with Chris Rodriguez
Great guy!
Awesome, Rob! I always draft him at the 6th round in the PFN mock simulator.
I think 1+ round earlier for me. In the 6th that would be awesome.
I am 99.5% sure it will not be Richardson at #5. Maybe at #20 in theory. Richardson is extremely raw. His QBR, comp% and other like stats are near the bottom in all of NCAA. Also in his conference. He is 2-3 years away from being a starter for a team not scheming like Cam Newton or Lamar Jackson.
I feel like we’ve just got back in time 8 weeks
Are people seriously talking this way?
Obviously so
As fans are slowly getting off the Wilson juice there are some “groups”
The Carter Truthers: Carter will be the pick at 5, QB interest is smokescreen, bad pro-day was staged to allow Hawks to take him
Richardson/Levis stink: Both should be UDFA, we should consider superior prospect Hooker in round 2 or 3
Skoronski at 5, JMS at 20, Torrence at 37: fix the line for Geno, then draft DLine according to descending weight; guard at 5 is fine – look at Quentin Nelson.
Trade back entirely into Round 2, collect many R1 picks for 2024, 2024 has superior QB class: many teams offer up Round 1 picks like candy, 2024 draft has superior QB
I feel like these crackpot ideas would have been shot down in a bar with roaring laughter 20 years ago, now they can cluster together with people who are like minded.
This gave me a chuckle but is also eerily accurate.
Let me know if I’ve missed one.
The real comedy is that this is one of our most predictable draft years. Just like last year. The tea leaves aren’t hard to read.
I think the only trope you missed is the horrible QB comps. Anthony Richardson=Jamarcus Russell/Malik Willis etc etc
My personal favorite on Carter has always been “If he can do THAT when he’s out of shape, imagine what he can do when he gets INTO shape!”
You got me into pressure rates and snap counts.
Maybe I’ve been wrong all this time. If Carter can get 3 sacks on 40% of snaps just imagine how deadly he will be when he gets 200% of snaps. Who couldn’t use a DT with 15 sacks from all over the line?
His pass rush win rate was 17% so if we can just get him to rush the passer 1,000 times a year, he’ll rack up 170 sacks!
Anyone remember the old SNL bears fan sketches
Who would win? The 2002 Rams Offense versus Jalen Carter, but hear me out, it is a mini Jalen Carter? CAR-TER
Carter Truthers have become my favorite to screenshot.
I’m hoping we can all sit back and laugh together some day.
“Bad pro day was staged to allow Hawks to take him”
Seriously? That’s certifiably insane. I’m not trying to be funny here.
I’m not sharing the more wild takes.
That was a common one, along with – he is mourning the death of his friends, so he is not focusing on football.
2 years from being a starter…..pretty much the exact reason why Seattle or tge raiders and maybe a few other teams are setting themselves up with easy out back up qbs.
He’s not going to be pick 20. Not for Seattle. Not for the league.
Seattle has hired one of the literal best qb coaches to ever do it.
People need to get get right about this draft. Your options will probably be will Anderson an awesome player or a qb based on the mountains of info, moves, contracts, the trade of Wilson, Geno’s age, etc, etc, et-bleeping cetera.
Ok so who do you think the pick will be at #5? Please share their stats and rankings from this past season, since that seems to be what you think is most important in evaluating prospects.
Only three weeks left until football Christmas!
Jim Nagy and his army of elves have been hard at work, so remember to be nice. That way Schneider Claus will come barrelling down your chimney on April 27th with a bunch of goodies!
But be naughty, and Krampus Kraft will put your children in a sack and sell them to a Florida massage parlor.
Just saw this mock which has SEA moving up to #3 to get Richardson (I think this is very much in play). Then trading down from 20 to let Jerry Jones flex his Bijan pick. Then at #26, Instead of us taking Meyer or McDonald or Ade Ade or Kancey he has us taking… Anton Harrison?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/2023-nfl-mock-draft-5-0-seahawks-surprise-in-free-agency-edition/ar-AA19ynbd?ocid=hplocalnews&cvid=bf2d23f51f8c4634b51a528358da24f3&ei=14
Hear me out.
I did something similar in a draft, it was an overdraft on Bergeron. P#42 (trade back then up after moving up to #3 for Levis), with idea being to slide Abe inside. I’d prefer to do this with Dawand or Wright, but I’m not drafting Wright in the late 1st because I don’t think that is realistic.
Still, it was more of a thought experiment.
The logical draft for SEA is QB/Anderson, Edge/BestWeaponAvailable, BestWeaponAvailable/EdgeIfNotAddressed, BPA/Safety, TE/BPA/Oline, BPA, BPA/CB/Oline for the rest. Make the players Seahawky and you’ve pretty much nailed them after projecting some trades.
Tackle depth will always be valuable but I haven’t bought in to this idea of kicking Lucas inside to guard. I think he is a legit RT and, barring injury, will only get better. Sure, if we draft someone who outplays him at tackle during camp, then I guess you put your best front 5 out there in whatever config make sense. But seems our track record with moving guys out of their natural positions of strength isnt’t great.
Him leaving really bugs me. Not that it happened, but just the the player is gone. Has said the right things, done everything asked of him, played better than someone making a few mil more than him. He’s who Seattle used to be hoping to get.
Happy for him though. He deserves this chance.
Gut punch
Oof. Tampa had let all but one of their safeties go in the off-season I believe. I think they only had one safety who had played a snap in his career. Makes a lot of sense for him to go there, but it stings.
Also makes me wonder, if we’re looking at another safety early and one the one we like if we don’t trade up from #52 to get in front of TB at #50. I think Hawk fans would have a collective aneurism at trading UP for ANOTHER safety, but if a couple of Antonio Johnson, Sydney Brown, Jammie Robinson are already gone, I could see it.
“if we’re looking at another safety early and one the one we like if we don’t trade up from #52 to get in front of TB at #50”
Me fail English? That’s unpossible!
*If there is a safety we are targeting at 52, we might try to jump in front of TB at #50
But we got Jamal baby and that’s all that matters.
Man, that is chicken feed for a legit starting safety.
It was obviously not about money – they don’t see a fit for Neal in what they plan to do next year. I don’t get it, but clearly the bottom has fallen out of the safety market.
I think it’s simply a case of finances.
This is a loaded safety draft and paying Neal $2.6m for one year didn’t add up, after spending so much elsewhere. Now they can draft a rookie on a cheap four-year deal and use the $2.6m elsewhere.
That $2.6m wasn’t guaranteed. The Seahawks could have negotiated him down instead of just cutting him loose.
There was no rational reason to let him get away for so little.
Feels like a big, bad, dumb call on the FO’s part.
Neal was emerging not just as a good player but an important voice on the defense. One of the few guys who had a dog mentality. They pay Nick Bellore a bunch of money because he’s a rah-rah team guy but let Neal walk?
The only thing I can think of to rationalize it is they were concerned about Neal’s injury history.
I thought it might be that Neal asked for a fresh start but he confirmed in the Bucs interview that wasn’t the case. It was a surprise.
I suppose it’s also possible, though, that they tried to negotiate him down and he said no. The only choice was to cut him and he overplayed his hand. It’s not something he’d admit in a press conference, of course.
Possible. They did say they were surprised that Love was available and reasonable, and liked his flexibility and leadership. It may just be the inevitable result of that acquisition.
Still feels like ‘pennywise, pound foolish’ at the safety position though. Even if he’s just a backup and special teams ace, he’s worth the money.
As per usual, it all comes back to the awful Adams trade/contract
On a completely separate note, they have a peacock sanctuary in the hotel I’m staying at
Get some video for a piece this fall when Adams tells us he’s the best there ever was and then has a ball doink off his face again.
As good as this FO has been, I think they have completely whiffed on the safety market. This year it has been ice cold. Frigid.
https://overthecap.com/free-agency
Hit the safety button to see how bad it is. Even with following things I was shocked.
Justin Simmons came off a franchise tag and the Falcons had to pay the ‘poor team tax’ and he couldn’t get within 25% of the top AAV in the league for safeties.
Jordan Poyer was an All-Pro and the best he could do from Buffalo was 2y $12m for crying out loud!
*Jessie Bates not Simmons
The safety market feels like that proverbial poker game. Where the Hawks are at the table trying to figure out who the sucker is all night and then look down to realize they have no chips left.
Correct. The part that is extra infuriating though, is Pete acknowledged last year that safety is a devalued position in the NFL.
They knew.
Definitely with cha on this one. I get that we have cap problems and need to find savings wherever we can. But the value for the investment with Neal seems clear cut to me. He’d have taken this same deal with us it seems, and I think most of us would be very happy with that outcome. He’s exactly the kind of ‘Seahawky’ player we’ve coveted over the years.
Maybe they know something about his health that we don’t, but Tampa addressed a clear need in their secondary with this signing. and I think got a tremendous value. I wish him the best there and hope he earns a much bigger contract on the next go-around.
Well that’s just painful to see.
It is mind games from here, if JS know Arizona can’t miss on Anderson or Hawks are fine with any top QB or Anderson we just stay put. Good part of picking 5th you can plan different scenarios. I think JS will stay at #5.
agreed – think it may end up being Levis at#5
Headline: Condotta Loves Hooker
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/analysis-looking-at-seahawks-10-prospective-picks-in-2023-nfl-draft/
This is going to drive me crazy until draft day, I’m going to need a new hard drive to store my screenshots of hot takes. Geno starting and RW trade being the end of the world was massive – and that was just texts from my apoplectic friends.
I would probably break my tv if this happened. Ouch. Wouldn’t be carrying too much hope for the team in the coming years as well.
Nice headline 🙂
I’m hoping he ends up in Vegas, so we get some oddball trivia fact about the only jersey to be #1 in sales when the player hadn’t played a down.
I’m not sure why anyone would want the Hawks to spend ANY pick on Hooker. He’s only a year younger than Lock, is coming back from an ACL injury, played in an offense that doesn’t translate to the NFL at all….meanwhile Lock has years of NFL experience, a year in your system, was a 2nd round pick himself etc etc.
“hE’s AcCuRaTtE. hE bEaT bAmA. hIs TaPe Is BeTtEr ThAn RiChArDsOn’S. hE iS a YoUnGeR vErSiOn Of GeNo. HiS aGe, SyStEm AnD iNjUrY dOn’T mAtTeR.
hE hAd ThE bEsT sTaTs (ok I have to stop, this is taking too long) and that is all that matters.”
Further evidence that you dont watch football and what you actually watch is sportscenter:
He would have won the heisman if….!!!
Checks notes on heisman winners: uhhh, okay. And? The heisman award winners, is there a less indicative award of future success? Burrow, winner. Bradford and Johnny football, also winners.
Colts taking a good look at Levis
https://twitter.com/AlbertBreer/status/1644014129278058497?t=jR6N1stTZuE2U1B7IiXiJQ&s=19
Excellent stuff, Rob. I was going to ask what you thought about this after Zierlein’s mock and the hundred others on NFL.com. Well done preempting me! Now I’m off to focus on finding any way of betting on the Hawks not taking Carter.
I don’t think anyone on this site knows a thing about JC or AR’s character. We know what we read or hear. The players and coaches closest to these two know more but the players themselves will write their own script.
From a player standpoint, I would take JC over AR any day of the week based on the fact that he showed up on the field and AR hasn’t, and may never. Of course, I want to see the team build a monster defense to support the offense and I see this as an opportunity to grab a generational player like Donald.
I don’t see a reason to take a project QB when the goal is ball control and running. Based on his talent, his arm strength will go to waste either due to his inaccuracy or our tendency toward ball control. He might be able to run but that only gets a team so far (see every running QB in the NFL) Unless the Hawks think this guy is the next Mahome’s, I see no reason to throw an early pick at him.
I know a LOT, actually. Just because I don’t share everything doesn’t mean we’re all blind to what’s going on.
Anthony Richardson never showed up?
This argument isn’t off to a great start TBH…
The big difference, of course, between Donald and Carter is… their entire approach to their careers couldn’t be more different. Donald, from day one in college to today, is chewing glass to be great. He has been in insane physical shape. He’s played every down with a chip on his shoulder. He had 29.5 sacks in college and 66 TFL’s. He has carried that production into the NFL and because he’s pissed off for greatness, he’s become one of the all-time greats.
Jalen Carter? Does what he wants, bad practise habits, produces about 20% of what his talent was capable of in college, awful conditioning, can’t get through a full game in the playoff semi-finals, embarrasses himself at his pro-day, in trouble with the police for speeding but doesn’t heed the warning, making the same mistakes. Doesn’t seem to realise this is the biggest moment of his life and he’s making mistake after mistake. Need we go on?
The goal is to win football games.
There are multiple ways to do that.
The top one still remains having an elite QB.
What if they think he’s the next Josh Allen instead?
Either way, let’s add Allen and Mahomes together.
Here’s what was being said about both before their drafts:
On Josh Allen:
“He reminds me of (Blake) Bortles,” a second scout said. “Bortles lacked consistent accuracy and I see the same thing with Allen. Big-time athlete but really an inconsistent passer. I don’t see (Carson) Wentz. Some people do because they had the same coach (Craig Bohl). Wentz was a very mature, confident person.” Two-year starter. “He looks the part and a good athlete,” a third scout said. “But you talk about lacking in being a winning quarterback. He has a lot of bad tape (even) at that level. Somebody will still take him high. Are we going on what the tape is and the production and the winning? Or are we going on this guy looks like he should be an NFL quarterback and how he throws the ball?”
On Mahomes:
“People are trying to make that comparison because of his arm. He’s got a really good arm, but Favre was not as reckless as this guy.
“He’s crazy. He plays crazy. He’ll do anything. I don’t even think “gunslinger’ is the right word. He’s reckless.”
“He’s in ‘that offense’ and the way he plays, he’s very erratic,” another director from an NFC team said. “You can see the talent but he’s just so streaky and wild and reckless. He put a lot of balls up for grabs where you’re saying, ‘Man, what are you going to get with him?’
“He could (come on) but I don’t see it. I just don’t think he has the necessary qualities. He has no vision, no mechanics. He’s erratic as hell. He makes a lot of mistakes. It’s going to be a long (development).”
“Mahomes is the boom or bust guy,” said one of the two evaluators that expected him to fail. “He carries the biggest upside but he does have a bust factor. He’s just going to be inexperienced doing the things he’s going to do here.
“When you start looking at players that play off the script it concerns you, and a lot of what he does is off-script. In the NFL, when you get off-script is when you make big, big errors. It’s not as easy to make the off-script play on our level as it is at Texas Tech.”
— Mahomes wasn’t listed in Daniel Jeremiah’s top-50 prospects in his February list ahead of the 2017 draft or an updated version in April, weeks before he was taken 10th overall. Deshone Kizer, however, was ranked on both occasions.
— In Jeremiah’s final April 2017 mock draft, he eventually did include Mahomes in round one at #27 overall. Deshaun Watson wasn’t included in the first frame. They ended up being the #10 and #12 picks respectively.
— Mahomes himself revealed he was given a second round grade by the draft committee.
— Lance Zierlein graded Mahomes at a 6.30 — a lower grade than Drew Lock (6.40). In his report, Zierlein noted: “Mahomes will be a work in progress, but he’s a high ceiling, low floor prospect.”
Article on NFL.com on Allen:
The scoop: “He scares me like he scares everyone, but he is easily the most physically talented quarterback (in this class). He will get drafted much higher than the level of his tape.” — AFC director of college scouting on Wyoming QB Josh Allen
The skinny: Listed at 6-foot-5, 233 pounds and with high-end arm talent, Allen is the prototype at the quarterback position. However, Allen’s production has been very pedestrian this season (181 yards passing per game, 55.9 percent completion rate, 12 TDs and 6 INTs in 8 games).
His accuracy and decision making are not where they need to be. In comparison, Carson Wentz had very similar physical traits and ability coming out of North Dakota State. He was the No. 2 overall selection of the 2016 draft, but his accuracy and football intelligence were exceptionally high. Coincidentally, Allen’s coach (Craig Bohl) helped groom Wentz at NDSU before being hired at Wyoming.
Allen might make a substantial leap forward with better talent surrounding him than what he’s working with at Wyoming. However, I’m not ready to say he’s a franchise quarterback at this juncture.
Hmmm…. seems kind of familiar.
So we take AR based on poor reviews of QBs in prior drafts? You are hand-picking arguments. Look at every QB in every draft if you are going to do that. What’s the hit rate? How many of those experts disagree from year to year.
I’m not buying AR; ultimately, our opinions are just that. I think the guy goes down in flames but if they end up using a 5 on him. I hope he balls out.
I won’t hold my breath but he would be a hard pass for me. I don’t see him being better than what was available to us in 2022 and we managed to dodge that mistake.
That’s a strawman argument. I think it’s pretty clear that I referenced those prior quotes simply to show that people who claim this, that and the other about what Richardson can’t do, were also saying similar things about two of the best players in the league. You take Richardson based on his incredible physical potential and talent.
No, I am replying to what you said directly, using your own words.
I’ve literally been doing that since last May. I’ve watched every game the top four in this class ever played. Watched most of Hooker’s games. Written thousands and thousands of words on them and everyone else — including many players who chose not to declare — and done hours of streams and videos.
It’s OK if you missed all of that but please, spare me the suggestion I need to ‘look at every QB’. Few people have done as much work on this QB class as I have. It’s been a tireless and thankless task, evidently.
So you’re not buying him and the extent of your argument so far is, “Richardson never showed up on the field”.
I’m not being funny Will, but you’re going to have to bring more to the table than that.
He is ten times what those quarterbacks are/were.
We don’t agree on this one but we are going to find out when he gets on the field. I will only wish him luck if he ends up on our team though.
What a compelling argument you made
I have quite a demanding schedule and sadly don’t have time to line out every compelling argument as you put it. I simply watched his games and was not impressed. Also, football for me, like any other sport, is entertainment. I’ll post a few comments here and there but I’m no expert.
I do want to thank you for allowing me to post my thoughts. I know this is your blog and you could have easily not allowed a differing opinion.
I think it’s best, if you’re going to post the kind of post like you did to kick this discussion off, to either have the time to flesh out your argument or wait until another time when you can.
Fair enough. I wasn’t familiar with your work but saw some YT content. Looking forward to watching some of those.
Am I the only one that wants to see bijan drafted at 20? I mean yea I love walker III but everything I see from bijan is gold. I’d love to surprise the football world taking 2 offensive players in the first round. Richardson at 5 bijan at 20 (if he drops that far which could happen) our backfield is a little light and that would instantly put us as top tier.
I think most people are open to Bijan at 20
He won’t be there though, IMO