Video analysis on the prospect of Seattle trading up


  1. Nick

    Hey Rob,

    Maybe there is no correlation but do you think the hire of Greg Olson this year plays a part in their desire to go QB at 5?

    Is it possible they were able to land him knowing that he was going to have a chance to work with one of the top 4 QBs?

    Thanks for everything you do!

    • Rob Staton

      One of the things PC said as soon as he was hired was to highlight Olson’s work with younger QB’s

      It was an interesting line

      I always think he was hired because he knows the scheme and Waldron

  2. HawkfaninMT

    I appreciate how you are keeping an open mind about this Rob. 3 weeks you stated over and over “AZ GM will not trade with Hawks” but after credible reports to the opposite you are actively pursuing the discussion. Well done!

    And I still don’t think it happens!

    • Fudwamper

      Yea, same here. I enjoy that nothing is ever set in stone but can be improbable.
      Thanks for all the content it’s great.

  3. BK26

    I think it’s a great point that Schneider and Richardson’s agent probably did talk about who had shown interest. Richardson CLEARLY was impressed meeting with Pete and there isn’t a better situation for him to go to.

    • Rob Staton

      It’s a perfect match for player and team

      • BK26

        Exactly. I don’t know if there is a spot and Richardson and his agent would want him to be at more than Seattle.

        Good thinking. All I though was “oh that means Schneider is interested.” Didn’t think of what all they could be getting out of the conversation.

  4. GerryG

    Thanks for all the content Rob! It’s been such a fascinating off season and appreciate the honest dialogue and healthy debate on the various options and outcomes.

    • Rob Staton

      Thank you 👍🏻

    • Whywouldntya?


  5. Peter

    Rob….killing it.

    I’d say as usual but this year is just one great thing after another.

    Thanks for all the variables. Trades, no trades, hooker later. Really tons of great stuff to think about.

    Re: Levis. I truly hope this is the last I’m going to post about this. But jacked selfies,when as Rob stated and anyone with eyes could see he looks like a very fit qb at the podium, is THEE dumbest, fakest, try-ahard reason to make content either online or on national radio.

    1. I’m closer to old than young. But for those not on social media….it is filled to the gills with people showing off in front of mirrors. And frankly good for them. For all the stupid stuff people put online I’d rather that then tons of other things.

    2. More to the point. You have a young man who has his masters in business, played college qb, and has made the time….and that takes tons of it, to getting ripped. Outside if DK and his sour patch kid diet to get like Levis in his terrible, rotten, no good selfie it shows a person who is in total control of their diet, who probably won’t need clauses in contracts about “study time,” and most likely doesn’t party much because to get like that people are usually on that 8+ hr sleep grind.

    Every year you see tons of stupid reasons to knock players. But being fit is honestly a brand new one for a 15 plus year follower of the draft.

    • Rob Staton

      It’s a great point about Levis

      ‘Man too committed to being in exceptional shape’

      What a disaster!

      A team could limit his weight session work from the minute after he’s drafted and it’s problem solved

      • Peter

        Exactly. Like I said I love that clip on the podium at UK’s pro day. Dude looks pretty close to being where is ideal as is.

        • Rob Staton

          Agreed — at the podium he just looks at an ideal weight/size

          • Michael G

            One guy who has stayed rock solid on Levis is Mel Kiper. He’s Mel’s QB2.

            Mel gets grief but he’s great at what he does and I assume he’s plugged in. His point lately has been about his athleticism. Levis had 9 rushing TDs when healthy in 2021. And that’s more than the entire career for Stroud & Young.

            • Rob Staton

              Mel is a treasure

              Agree or disagree with him, he’s the essence of the draft

    • Starhawk29

      It’s such a stupid take. And it’s a bit of a double standard. Jalen Hurts was praised all season for his strength. Him being able to squat 600lbs was on every broadcasted Philly game. Yet for Levis? He’s too jacked, it’s a problem.

      This all screams smokescreen to me, but could be wrong.

      • Peter

        Starhawk29- THIS is the smokescreen of the draft. Tampa bay anyone? I’m sure some team would “hate,” for levis to tumble to the bottom half of tge first and begrudgingly “have,” to take him.

    • Orcas Viking

      🎯 agree 100 percent with this take. It takes a ton of discipline and focus to accomplish an MBA, QB at Division 1 and get in that kinda shape (with total focus on diet) all the while dealing with all the other distractions around you at that age. I am starting to think the Richardson stuff is a smokescreen and that the guy the Hawks really want is Levis.

      • Rob Staton

        I rate Levis extremely highly, as you all know

        But there’s just something about Richardson

        The physical upside, the charisma — it’s just so John and Pete

        I don’t think there’s any smokescreen going on here, I think they are basically just laying it out. They like the QB’s. They almost certainly like Will Anderson. They pick fifth. The only question now is whether you want to be aggressive to get a specific player, or just wait to see who’s left at #5

        • Geoff u

          I’m really curious how they rate these three and how much they value grabbing a QB. Also, if anyone else is willing to trade for AZs pick. If they stay put it’ll be pretty telling.

        • Orcas Viking

          I’d prefer Levis at 5 plus all our existing picks rather than trade up to three and lose 1 or two second rd picks. Just my humble opinion.

          • Rob Staton

            That’s fine

            But John might prefer guaranteeing Richardson or Anderson

    • 509 Chris

      I was thinking the exact same thing. If any of us looked like that we wouldn’t even bother buying shirts. Let the kid enjoy a bit of the rewards for a ton of hard work. Whoever takes him will be more than happy to put him all over their teams social media, probably without a shirt!

    • Geoff u

      Carter shows up overweight and struggling/winded doing basic drills.
      “Look, he’s just dealing with things, give the guy a break.”
      Levis posts photos of being in TOO good of shape while nailing the combine and pro day.
      “This is an outrage!”

      -Seahawk fans probably

      • Rob Staton


  6. Trevor

    Great stuff Rob you laid out the situation perfectly.

    One other thing to consider. Say for example the Hawks trade a 2024 1st rounder to move up for Richardson / Stroud. If Geno has another good year and Richardson develops as expected and is ready to start next year the Hawks could likely recoup a 2nd round pick if they trade Geno. He would be coming off back to back quality seasons and has a cap friendly deal both of which have significant value.

    • Rob Staton

      I think probably more likely a R3 due to age but it’s definitely an option

    • bv eburg

      Hadn’t thought of that angle Trevor. Another reason to go heavy offense early in the draft. More weapons for geno the better chance he has another solid season. The more you get trading him next offseason.

  7. Trevor

    Rob if the Hawks go with a QB at 5 and then decide to address the DL with the next two picks and 20-37 which would be the better option assuming they can add an A’shawn Robinson or another vet to play NT.

    20 Ade Ade / 37 Derrick Hall
    20 Will McDonald / 37 Keion White

    Then grab Wyler or a WR/TE at 53.

    Just curious on your thoughts. Think I prefer McDonald and White but if they don’t get a vetran NT the best option might be.

    20 Ade Ade
    37 Mazi Smith
    52 Derrick Hall if he is still there

    • Peter

      Rob touched on this in the video a bit but it appears John thinks a NT could be just a guy as long as the other players are good/great. So maybe that frees up pasing on Smith and taking a more dynamic combo.

    • Rob Staton

      I think they’ll add one more veteran DL at some point and go young up front apart from that

  8. Demitrov

    Would the QB needy teams above us be more likely to pick Young, Stroud or Levi’s because they can start right away? I can’t see Carolina or Indy taking Richardson and sitting him a year or two. Maybe Houston but I think they would take Stroud instead. I’m all for going up and getting your guy but I’m tempted to let the draft fall to us and keep our draft capital.

    • Rob Staton

      It might be to stop someone else trading up to #3 and taking Richardson away from you (if he’s your guy)

    • Geoff u

      I’m fine with whatever QB makes it to 5, however (A) the FO might prefer someone over than Richardson, and (B) What if someone else wants to trade into the Cards spot? In that case, we’ll have to either be fine with Anderson or have to outbid the Card’s offer. If the Cardinals will even negotiate with us, in which case we’d have to try and trade up with Houston.

  9. Trevor

    I think of Richarson or Stroud are the target then you likely have to move up to 3 to get one of them. It’s not the Panthers or Colts you are worried about it is the Raiders, Falcons, Titans and Commanders moving up to 3 to take him. They all have stop gap QBs and would not need him to start day 1.

  10. Dingbatman

    To the community. What’s the earliest Arizona could move on from Kyle’s Murray? Had a crazy thought that AZ picks AR with the idea that in 2 years they try to opt out of Murray’s contract. Murray certainly hasn’t been tearing it up.

    • Peter

      I think 2025? Maybe 2026. Looks like some big dead cap hits in the future.

      They could do something wild. But I’d look to them to do something like that next year.

      If Kyler gets injured (again,) or falters (often) fans are going to be clamoring for someone else at QB. Plus that team needs players everywhere.

      We could use help. Of course. But I think they could skip trying to fill holes and literally draft BPA at every single pick and they’d be on a better spot.

    • cha

      They could trade him in 2024 if they’re ok with a $46m dead cap hit.

      Most likely 2025 is the earliest they could move on. $33m dead.

      • Dingbatman

        If Richardson is believed to be a potential generational talent and need 2 years to develop could he be in play at 3 for AZ? Given the history I can’t imagine they are not looking beyond Murray at quarterback.

        • BK26

          I would say no. I don’t think they can justify paying Kyler that much and then drafting his replacement. He would make it a bigger hell for the team to deal with. I could see them wanting our 2024 pick because it is one less year of dead money (and personally I think one more year of dealing with him will be enough for the new regime). They aren’t going to be good any time soon.

          FWIW the new staff has talked up Kyler enough that I think they will give it a good try, not that they have a choice.

          • Peter

            I always doubt the “sit and learn, take a player under their wings,” mindset. But….if I was making a wager I think Geno would be one of the few who would actually teach players a thing or two.

            • BK26

              He’s more or less said that that is the case. I think it is overrated, their job is to be “the guy,” not help the kid looking to replace them. Geno looks a little like the exception.

              I think he has bought into being so well-regarded from last year and it looks like he really appreciates the chance that the team has given him.

              • Peter

                You see this with other positions as well. Wagner/ Carter.

                What is grown man Wagner who came from Utah st and turned himself into an almost HOF candidate going to impart to a highly regarded prospect on the highest level of power five schools?

                I’m not saying vets can’t pass on a thing or three here and there. But your “job,” is to get yourself ready week in and week out. Not be a de facto baby sitter.

        • Roy Batty

          I do not see any scenario where Arizona drafting AR doesn’t lead to a Murray meltdown.

    • TomLPDX

      Here is Kyler’s structure at OTC:

      Looks like the soonest they could move on would be 2025, but that would still have a dead money hit of $33.2M but with a cap savings of $12.4M, so net $20.8M cap hit in 2025. Hopefully I did that right!

      • DC1234

        I think if Arizona drafts Richardson, they are in full tank mode for the next two years.

        Murray will not be happy. He is not a Alex Smith type that will mentor Richardson. It will be chaos.

        Idk if the new coach and gm will be around when Richardson is ready to start.

    • 509 Chris

      This thought crossed my mind too, but AZ just has too many other holes to spend such an early pick on a player that won’t see the field for a year or 2 and will immediately cause a toxic locker room via Murray’s reaction. Their strategy has to be inject with talent and maybe try to secure future capital to be ready to move on if the Murray situation becomes unsavable. My opinion is that the Arizona not wanting to trade within the division are a little blown out of proportion. Just last year I think it was Detroit and Minnesota that did a pretty big deal on day 1. That #5 pick allows them to still get the best defender on the board and grab 20 or 37. Sounds like a no brainer for them.

      • Peter

        I think you’re right. Trying to get AZ competive with an eye to the future makes way more sense than dealing with kyler demanding a trade instantaneously with his contract.

  11. Dingbatman


  12. GF

    I don’t understand why people don’t understand or don’t want to understand that we will hardly have another chance to be in the 5th position of the draft, AR is 20 years old, he will be 21 on May 22nd, he can easily learn 1 or 2 years, let’s remember that our team is closer to picks 15-20 than to be in the top 10, next year we will hear bad things about Caleb Williams, there are already a lot of people talking about him being a cocky person, surely there will be bad things about Drake Maye, if he is not good with his feet blah blah blah, the next class is better? I only listen to those 2, the others will be overrated by the media

    • Peter


      1. We actually do not know who will declare.

      2. Injuries? Look no further than Hendon Hooker.

      3. Downturn in play. Can’t predict that. Alternately what if there is no upturn?See: williams, maye? I see knocks on Levis and Richardson about “not elevating their teams.” Last I checked USC wasn’t a world beater.

      4. Less talked about but salient. Last year was God awful for qbs pushing the demand higher this year. I’ve seen some brilliant comments so I’m just copying them here: even if next year’s class is miles better that doesn’t mean those picks are available. This year #1 is available because Chicago might be able to build with fields. #2 seems like it’s not for sale. #3.. maybe?

      Point is say atlanta, vegas, titans, etc can’t or don’t do anything about qb this year but are picking top ten or top five…..those picks aren’t guaranteed available just because a team wants them. Those teams listed could easily say ” thanks but no thanks we need a qb ourselves.”

      • Rob Staton

        Everyone assumes Williams and Maye will declare

        Andrew Luck went back to Stanford — and he was the clearest #1 pick in living memory

        You can’t bank on players declaring, especially in the NIL era

        • Peter

          The NIL money is going to really be interesting. If there’s even a tiny doubt you can make good to exceptional money and further boost your stock especially for qbs it can start looking pretty odd on draft day with classes more like last year as the top qbs.

      • GF

        I think even the RAMS will have a high pick, those words of McVay: we are going to rebuild this, easily translate it as: we are tanking.

  13. Mr drucker in hooterville

    Trade to #2

    • Peter

      I’ve been on the trade to #2 train since before the panthers trade.

      • Rob Staton

        Doubt Houston would do it

        • Peter

          I think you’re right of course. Just more comfortable with that roundly because of the divisional difference..

        • Malanch

          For Houston to drop to #5, they would need to be targeting a non-quarterback AND they would need to feel assured that Arizona will also trade down…

          …Or, they would need an absolute haul from the Seahawks.

          • Hawksorhiking?

            I wouldn’t be shocked if Houston traded down, but with 11 picks this year including 2,12, and 33 I’d bet they’d want at least 1 high 2024 pick.

      • JC3

        Same reason you want to trade up for AR, Houston will take AR themselves.
        I believe Stroud & Richardson will go 1 & 2.

        • Elmer

          Suppose we stay at 5 and Anderson/Richardson so 3 and 4. What do we do then? BPA? Levis? Trade down? Even Carter? (Noooo)

  14. Zeke

    A top QB prospect and some beef in the trenches

    5 Richardson
    20 Kancey
    37 Ade Ade
    52 Benton/Mazi/Wypler

    Sign A’Shawn Robinson

    • JC3

      A’Shawn Robinson is DT version of Rashaad Penny, the dude only plays the first 7-8 games.
      There is a reason he is still unsigned.

      • Rob Staton

        He played a full season in 2021 but played only 10 games in 2022 and eight in 2020

      • Zeke

        Don’t give him many snaps until late in the season/playoffs. Problem solved

        • God of Thunder

          Save him for the Super Bowl

  15. Sluggo42

    They’ve got tooooooo much money tied into Tyler, and that little baby would quit on the team if they drafted another QB, in a hissy fit that would make AB look meek- Az is stuck with that dude for years…

    Agree with trading up to get their guy- and I don’t think AZ wants to take a chance of missing out on Anderson, or Carter, although we’ll probably take Carter and tuck him away up here in the snow covered tundra to keep him away from his thug fiends, and then he will be solid…

    • Dingbatman

      I could see them coveting future draft picks. Create capital to move up in future years to pick his successor if needed.

  16. Sluggo42

    Give them next years first, and that will be good for the 32 pick

    • Rob Staton

      I would happily give up just next years first — but I suspect they’ll want something now. And introducing the prospect of 2024 stock could force you to pay more than you need to.

  17. PJ in Seattle

    I would not be surprised if John doesn’t already have a draft deal tee’d up with AZ. They will demand #5 and #20 and the assurance we’re not going to take Anderson. All of which John is willing to give, but only to get Richardson.

    Which is why it’s not going to happen until AZ is on the clock. If Carolina (possible) or Houston (less so) takes Richardson, John’s not willing to cough up the native first rounder. He’ll be happy at that point to sit tight and take either Levis (who I would guess he prefers) or Young when they fall to #5.

    • Rob Staton

      I think someone is going to trade up to #3 before the draft

      • Big Mike

        Undoubtedly possible of course. What is your line of reasoning in feeling that way?

        • Rob Staton

          Just how the league has trended. More and more trades happening in advance of the draft eg Lance, Goff, Wentz, Panthers

          Teams like to know before the event so they can plan accordingly, on both sides. If Arizona is prepared to move down, they will want to get the best offer now. You can’t negotiate a major trade in 10 minutes on the clock with multiple parties. You do it now with time to think, then time to plan your moves with the pick you actually end up with

      • Peter

        If someone trades up now up to draft day all I hope is that it is for a somewhat ridiculous haul.

        That way the question is off the table.

        If that player becomes the next….”x,” and it was as little as a single first or the josh allen two seconds…..Unless whomever we get is the same or better it’ll be like humphries/watt x 100.

      • PJ in Seattle

        Pre-draft, I could see it possibly being Indy just to eliminate the possibility of us or someone else jumping them for a QB. But to deal pre-draft, seems like you have to have at least 3QBs ranked together on your board that you are willing to give up picks for, since it’s entirely possible that Carolina or Houston does something unexpected.

        • Rob Staton

          Having three QB’s rated highly is entirely plausible

          It happened two years ago

      • JimN

        A trade ahead of time assumes that they won’t care who is taken 1 and 2. So are you willing to risk a first round pick for the possibility that your guy might be there? Don’t think JS would pull the trigger in that case, but wait for the draft, and set the deal for AZ. Then AZ can decide if they want a lower haul from someone else ahead of time or the possibility of a better Seahawk deal during the draft. So many options. This is very intriguing. I too don’t think JS will trade ahead unless he is guaranteed one of his guys.

        • Rob Staton

          Again (not sure why I need to keep saying this)

          You move up to #3 now because you have three players you’d love to pick

          Not one

          It’s very plausible they have three they love. Or four. Or five. But if there’s a hierarchy, getting the one you prefer can matter significantly

    • Peter

      I think this feels pretty accurate.

      If they were to trade I think it’s draft day. You’re trading up for some one. Maybe some two but if the draft breaks differently hold fast to your picks for now.

      • Big Mike

        I’m with Peter and PJ on this one too. Feels like draft day to me too.

      • Geoff u

        And if someone else trades up, or is trying to trade up, pre-draft? That would force Seattle’s hand to either outbid or be content with no QB.

        • Peter

          I get both sides. And Rob reminded me that more pre-draft trades are taking place.

  18. Gross MaToast

    1/1. Panthers – Stroud
    1/2. Oilers. – Young
    1/3 Seahawks – Richardson
    1/4. Colts. – Levis
    1/5. Cardinals. – Anderson + 2/37

    Who’s unhappy?

    • Trevor

      That looks like a win for everyone in the top 5

    • DawgyD


      AZ stays in the top five and picks up extra draft capital and still gets their #1 target.

      I still think the most likely scenario using this template is Hawks stay at 5, Houston selects Young, AZ gets Anderson at 3 then Hawks take whoever is lasting between Levis and Richardson. Only caveat is if they are so enamored with AR they do move up.

      If their is interest in the 3rd pick, then AZ risks losing Anderson, they must love either Wilson or Gonzalez (like in Robs last mock) kinda forces the Hawks hand if you really want that QB.

      I also like Robs last mock where we stay at 5 pick Anderson, build that D-line, and kick the can down the road at QB. I mean SF made Superbowl runs with an awesome D, some dynamite playmakers and Brock Purdy / Jimmy G at QB.

      It’s so much fun, cant wait till draft day.

      • 509 Chris

        I would point out SF lost a superbowl to a dynamic qb and felt like it was worth it to trade the farm for a chance at a special qb. It didn’t work out but they took a high upside guy who in my opinion looked worse pre draft than Levis or Richardson. I’ve accepted that the team will do what it’s gonna do and I’ll give it a chance no matter where or who they pick though.

    • Rob Staton

      I’m down

      • Wilson502

        Say the Seahawks trade up to 3, and Richardson and Stroud go 1,2. Do you take Levis there? Im 100% taking Levis and not looking back. Say they traded up to #2 in that scenario, u think JS would prefer Stroud over Levis?

        • Rob Staton

          I don’t know, maybe

          I think they’ll like all four QB’s and Anderson but I don’t know a ranking

          • Wilson502

            I agree we wouldnt know a ranking, but if I to take my best guess at it, it would look something like this.

            1. Richardson
            2. Stroud/Levis
            3. Anderson
            4. Young

    • cha


      Waste of a pick for Edmonton.

      They already have the best passer in the league in Connor McDavid.

      They need a tough defensemen and Bryce Young aint going to keep the crease clean.

      • Big Mike

        I got a huge laugh out of this even if no one else reacted. Thumbs up cha.

      • Gross MaToast

        Bryce Young OWNS the freaking crease, man.

    • Sea Mode

      Seahawks might be unhappy. Could have probably gotten the same outcome by just sitting at 5. Someone will have to make an offer that blows the roof off of State Farm Stadium to get Arizona to move lower than 5 and give up Will Anderson.

      And even say someone does trade up to 3 for Richardson. Then you have Anderson as a consolation prize. (or Levis if something crazy happens at 4)

      Just trying to look back at how a lot of us have been seeing it until recently. Yes, I get that if he pans out, nobody will care about the extra pick we gave up. But just like moving up might be a risk worth taking, sitting tight at 5 might be the smarter risk worth taking.

      • Wilson502

        Would the Seahawks really be unhappy by getting a potential superstar franchise QB? Highly doubt, and it eliminates the risk of somebody else trading up with AZ to take him instead.

    • Wilson502

      Been pounding the table for this since the season ended

  19. PJ in Seattle

    Nooooo-body! High fives in every war room.

  20. Peter

    Stay safe out their folks. So many smokescreen.

    -Carter smokescreening his pro day to fall to his preferred team.

    -levis smokescreening his interviews to also do the same.

    -pete and John running so many smokescreens we’ll need a lighthouse and a flare gun on draft day.

    Just saw a tiny video ( I get it Big Mike. I. Get. It. 😀)….where Seattle has never traded up in the first round….checks notes has also never had a top five pick… this is definitely not happening. But also from someone who consistently mocks Klancey to us (uhhhh arm size seems like a bigger data point).

    Thanks again Rob for discussing this. Pros and cons. While I think they are happy to stay at #5, I think I’m only leaning 70/30 on this.

    • Geoff u

      I dont understand. If Seattle has never had a top 5 pick, then how do we have a top 5 pick? It’s never happened before and therefore should never happen. I’m so confused! Clearly us having pick #5 is itself a smokescreen…

      • Peter

        Actual factual almost spit my coffee out!! Nicely done.

  21. PJ in Seattle

    We’ve talked about it a bit before, but what if Houston takes Anderson at #2 with an eye to taking Hooker or an unexpected QB faller at #12?

    Man, what a mad scramble that would potentially unleash.

    • bv eburg

      I’ve been rolling that one around also. That leaves us with QB4. Is John/Pete good with that? If so, great. If not does Seattle approach Houston about 12 and 33 for 5? Houston would come away with Anderson and a top QB, both sides of the ball would have leadership for them.

      • PJ in Seattle

        Wow, that would be amazing to see. Houston coming away with Will Anderson and one of the top 4 QBs (Young?)… that would be a serious coup.

        If Anderson and the three QBs Seattle wants are all gone and Carter is off their board, a trade back for 12 and 33 could definitely be in play. And Bijan or Mayer could be there with that #12.

        • bv eburg

          Tend to agree with Rob that Seattle will like all 4 qb’s but who knows.

        • T.J.

          Moving down from 5 to 12 would require more than pick 33. Meanwhile, many on this board seem comfortable giving up 1.20 to move up two spots? Check out the trade charts. I realize they don’t dictate everything, but moving from 5 to 3 is either equal or worth less than moving from 12 to 5, depending on which chart you look at. C’mon, greed is good!

          • TJ

            Looks like we have 2 TJs on here.

    • Scot04

      Houston could also trade up from #12 to #3. Get Anderson & their QB.

  22. CHaquesFan

    Thoughts on Grayson McCall? Watched some Coastal Carolina highlights and he seems nice with a late pick

    • Rob Staton

      He didn’t declare

    • Henry Taylor

      He’s not in the draft.

  23. Aaron

    While the noise of Arizona moving off of 3 is getting louder, I am still trying to think of what team would move up. We all know it is unlikely for Seattle to move to 3 because they don’t move up in round 1, plus it’s a division rival. Lions at 6 don’t seem interested in taking a QB. Tafur is on the record as saying the Raiders won’t move up. Falcons have been mentioned, but their GM has a stronger history of moving back and does not like to give up picks. Maybe Tennessee at 11, but would Arizona want to move down there or even farther? They won’t move down just to move down.

    • Jordan

      Arizona can:

      Stay at 3 and get their first choice of defensive players; allowing Seattle to get qbotf at 5.

      Trade with Seattle, get extra compensation; and still get their first choice of defensive players, while delivering Seattle the qbotf.

      Trade with someone further down than Seattle, add compensation, but give Seattle the first choice of defensive players.

    • Rob Staton


      All have official 30 visits with Richardson

      • Aaron

        There is a lot that goes into a top 30 visit. How many first round players are drafted by teams they visited with on a top 30 visit? The late day 2/early day 3 visits are more meaningful. If I recall, the Chiefs didn’t bring in Mahomes for an official visit and Josh Allen only met with Buffalo at the Senior Bowl and didn’t have a top 30 visit.

        • Rob Staton


          They’re not bringing Richardson in to find out his top five films from 2022

          • Aaron

            Probably not, but they could gauge what other teams are showing interest even if they didn’t have an official visit. A lot is just playing games against the rest of the league. They could also be asking about Torrence, Miller, Dexter, or Trey Dean 🤷‍♂️

            • Rob Staton


              But it’s just as likely they are thinking of drafting him

        • Geoff u

          It’s my understanding that top 30 visits are for players you’re interested in but unsure of, character wise. So you want to find out more about what makes them tick. Will Anderson, for example, has zero top 30 visits. That doesnt mean no one’s interested, it means everyone already knows he has great character.

        • 509 Chris

          I think teams might just be that curious. He’s such a rare prospect it’s worth it to talk to a guy that the entire league may be pulling their hair out over planning against in the future years. At the end of the day the scouts and front office people are just football guys like us and are probably really interested in him.

  24. Brett

    Brock Huard’s take on Richardson’s pro day:

    “There’s no question it bothered some of them [Seahawks FO]. It has to. This is the NFL. The NFL is not just, ‘Hey, we go half speed.’ The NFL is grown man, trying to take your livelihood and take your health away from you and blow you up. There’s got to be a sense of detail and sense of urgency,” he said.

    Brock has been down on AR all offseason but these types of takes feel like he’s reading into it too much. AR was showing who he was, something Pete embraces in his program. His pro day kinda felt like “I have all the talent in the world, I like to have fun, but I need some direction.” I also don’t think he had very good coaching at Florida, which may have hindered his development more than people realize.

    • j hawk

      I have been souring on Huards “takes” for about the last year. He seems off from earlier in his career.

    • Peter

      We get it Brock. You only like Stroud the one qb we are most likely not to be able to draft.

      Let’s look at what we know:

      “Un”serious richardson was training or did train at age 16 to be a firefighter to support his family.

      Everyone and probably his mom knows he needs to sit and learn. So he goes out and has fun with it.

      Pete Carrol used to have a running back on the team who repeatedly drove injury carts on the field in college….I highly doubt Pete is adverse to fun.

      • Rob Staton

        Rumour has it Richardson smiled 17 times during his pro day

        Everyone know any more than 9 smiles is off limits

        Third round grade

        • Brett


          Everyone knows Pete doesn’t like his players to have fun.

          • Geoff u

            It’s been rumored that Pete hates fun so much he has banned chewing gum on the sidelines

        • Peter

          I did not know that…..let someone else take him.

          Throwing the ball at the roof is one thing. I mean it’s not like they’re playing space, har har….

          But being overly gregarious and smiling. Not for this fan.

          • Rob Staton

            I preferred the good ol’ days when smilin’ be banned

            • Sea Mode

              Doo yerr job!

        • PJ in Seattle

          This is why Jay Cutler was a draft darling. Still leads the league all time in smile efficiency.

    • Rob Staton

      I watched all four pro days

      All four were different

      There was nothing remotely wrong with Richardson’s

      • Malanch

        The main thing about Anthony Richardson’s pro day is that the physical demonstration was not important, in my view—borderline irrelevant, even. All present already knew all about that. As much as anything, the throw session was a celebration of the player’s preternatural potential, as both an MVP-caliber player and long-term face of the franchise. Hanging out and grooving with the multitude of execs, showcasing the player’s personality, had to be Team Richardson’s priority, I’d think.

        Personally, yes, I would have preferred Richardson demonstrating that he could match C.J. Stroud’s smoothness in executing a hyper-organized, up-tempo series over Will Levis’s muscularity in banging a ball off a ceiling joist. But as long as Richardson’s two-thirds speed approach was by design and not indicative of a cavalier, hero-ball mentality, I’m fine with it. Anyway, the relevance of his pro day strategy ultimately pales in comparison to the relevance of…

        …the ACF (Aaron Curry Factor). Hee hee.

        Now, the ACF is not here to focus fan scrutiny on a given prospect’s flaws, shortcomings, or limitations, nor does it seek to tease out some fickle nitpickery guised as objective analysis. No, no: The ACF merely grounds the enamored Hawk fan at a time when grounding is needed most. It’s best always to remain humble, after all, and to remember that, when that final flight of fantasy has taxied to the runway, and the spooling up of the engines has gotten your bowels all in a stir, you can’t change the fact that you might very well have gotten on the wrong stupid plane.

        “…But if [insert Golden Boy prospect] doesn’t work out, at least you took a swing at greatness!” says the self-consoler.

        Yes, that’s fair, however the ACF is also here to remind us that it’s not so easy as that. Personally, the profoundly franchise-altering debacularity of the Curry bust entirely shut down my consumption of NFL Draft content for a good long while, and I’ve heard plenty of others indicate the same (the radical switchover to the PCJS Era did eventually bring such people back, but this was a fortunate after-development). Really, “What’s the point of any of it?” is all I could think when anything draft-related came up, post-Curry.

        At any rate, I’ll leave off with this warning for now, as I’ve got to hurry up and book some tickets before the first-class seats go. (The Anthony Express: Departure, 4/27 at 8:10 p.m. EST, Destination, immortality, if you must know.)

    • Trevor

      Guess Brock has not been watching Patrick Mahomes. No one smiles and jokes around more than him. He looks like a kid having fun playing football because it is easy for him and he is having fun. Richardson feels the same way.

      • Rob Staton

        Apparently Mahomes had them play ‘Motorcycle Emptiness’ by the Manics on the loud speaker throughout his throwing session

        Followed by ‘Heaven knows I’m miserable now’ by the Smiths.

        Teams were gushing about the fact ‘Requiem for a Dream’ was named as his favourite film

        And he wore a Radiohead T-shirt

        • cha

          Thanks fantastic. Hearty laugh.

          He’d fit right in in the PNW though.

          I can easily see Florio and King the next day dissecting it and rubbing gravel through their hair.

          Peter “Mike, I looked up the lyrics to this song and I think it sends the wrong message.”

          I was looking for a job, and then I found a job
          And heaven knows I’m miserable now
          In my life
          Why do I give valuable time
          To people who don’t care if I live or die?

          “I can tell you right now, teams are going to be very concerned about this.”

          • Rob Staton

            “They should’ve traded for Lamar Jackson instead”

    • teejmo

      … This is the same FO who met with and later drafted a shirtless DK and posted selfies with all four of the draft’s top quarterbacks – yeah, sure sounds like they really care about Brock’s “sense of detail and sense of urgency.”

    • Wilson502

      I wonder if his lazy takes are why he couldn’t hack it as a national analyst and had to come crawling back to 710.

      • Rob Staton

        Brock is great — as an analyst and radio host

        I disagree strongly with his takes on this QB class and some of the points he’s made but that’s fine, that’ll happen sometimes

        • Wilson502

          I agree his takes have been terrible this yr regarding the QBs, especially whenever Richardson is brought up, he used to have much better takes in the past, but hes really off the mark with this yr’s class. Hope its not a trend that continues in the future, but time will tell.

          • Malanch

            Something is off with Brock these days, since about the time he relocated to Colorado. The chemistry with Salk is hit and miss now (no longer broadcasting from the same studio can’t be helping this). His commitment to this 3.0 version of the show seems very one-foot-in, one-foot-out. I’ll notice strange gaps in his overall draft knowledge, like he just isn’t interested in putting in the time and effort necessary to offer much of value to the draftnik fringe. He knows a lot about certain players from the teams he has covered as a color analyst (enough to scrabble together a Top 20 countdown, at least), but other than that, his prospect analyses pretty much accord with the MSM line. He seems way more interested in the Mariners than the Seahawks, so I figure most of his prep time is for baseball.

  25. Leon

    Brock has also said that Sam Ehlinger is a franchise Quarterback. He bases his opinions on feelings rather than looking at the whole picture. Brock wants his QBs to be football 24/7 and if they miss one workout then they should be cut from the team.

  26. JDH

    Such great content, Rob. Thank you. I think you pose a very interesting thought experiment attempting to look at this through Schneider’s eyes. Fun, but really, too many variables I believe, to project the Hawks will trade up. I trust what you’ve been saying for months, that Schneider would like all four top QBs and Will Anderson. Their next two picks they have are valuable and could make significant contributions in 2023 if they hit as well as the 2022 draft. Even if they believe Richardson is a generational talent, they could move up (if AZ is willing to give their divisional rival such a chance at that upside) and then have Houston take him at #2. If they do trade up to #3, then, I believe it would be after Houston picks to make sure Richardson is there. However, I think they stay at #5. If they felt that Richardson was head and shoulders above the other QBs, they could have done the deal with Chicago and then they’d be guaranteed their top choice. I believe Schneider (and Carroll) are content to let the draft come to them. Whether that is one of the four QBs or Anderson as you’ve said many times. They buzz has changed because more people finally see what you’ve seen for a long time–that Richardson has incredible upside. My guess is that Schneider has known that and his plan hasn’t changed. They made the trip to see the QBs & Anderson to make one last check that all five were worthy of the #5 pick. I trust your judgment (based on actually watching the dang tape for countless hours) that they are. A nice position to be in.

    • Rob Staton

      You may well be right

      But I can also imagine John (and Pete) really believing in a small group, they want to guarantee they can pick from

    • Malanch

      “Their next two picks they have are valuable and could make significant contributions in 2023.” –JDH

      There it is, right there: the need-draft mentality. Pervasive bugger, that.

      Don’t get me wrong, JDH; I’m not criticizing your post or anything, and your overall point is rational. It’s just that you happen to have identified a particularly prolific (virulent?) form of fan doublethink, which neither mainstream nor alt media seems overly keen on pointing out. I’m not going to straw-man your point or anything, but just to generalize broad fan sentiment as I’ve gathered it, it’s like, ‘Yes, the Hawks could emphasize BPA (ala 2022) and maximize the aggregate talent level of the roster over the longer run, but why do that when they could just return to a short-run need emphasis (ala 2013–21) and plug immediate holes instead?’

      One might have expected Hawk fans to prefer the 2022 draft approach over the 2013–21 draft approach, perhaps even with a “More, please!” kind of fervor—given the results involved—but no. Clearly, the majority resoundingly want immediate team needs filled: defense, defense, interior OL, receiver, defense, defense, running back, defense, defense…

      I don’t mean to oversimplify value-versus-need, as a proper draft has to balance both in some proportion, but John Schneider did flat-out admit that the main difference with the (staggeringly successful) 2022 draft, in contrast to prior years’ (largely failed) drafts, was in the prioritization of value over need. Why does the retail fan not connect with this?

      • JDH

        I agree there is a lot of “we must fill X need” and, since there are clear multiple “needs”, all draft picks, including #5, #20, etc. must be used for that purpose and that means no “wasting” them on a QB cuz we got Geno. There are needs that could make the 2023 team better and my hope is that need meets BPA, whether that’s with #5, #20 or day 2 or early day 3 picks. Schneider won’t just be looking at 2023 so “need” for him likely includes what kind of QB they have in three, four, or five years. The combination of the 2022 draft and an excellent FA in 2023 so far means to me it’s likely they are setting up BPA. The very top of this draft is a relatively short list, but it seems like there will be enough good choices from mid-first through third round of very good talent that the Hawks won’t have to stretch to match need with approximate BPA. Center position seems to me like the outlier where they may reach a bit to make sure they improve the Oline, especially considering what the 49ers have done upgrading their Dline.

        • Malanch

          “My hope is that need meets BPA.”

          Ahh, the sweet spot: if only every pick could come off like this. To be fair, sometimes we do see the board fall a team’s way in the upper rounds, but that’s actually pretty rare from an annualized per-team perspective. Needing a player means that a team has to be willing to draft him a full round or round-and-a-half early, and that’s the very definition of a reach. I can’t think of a better way to create a mediocre roster than to plug holes with reaches.

          Beyond the board falling perfectly, the remaining options for the value-seeking GM involve either getting lucky (i.e. trading down juuuuust the right amount to exaaaaactly one spot above the other team that was going to take him) or missing out (i.e. risking the needed player to the market, thus un-needing him—a full abandonment of the need-draft approach).

  27. Geoff u

    Thought I’d post this here. COMbine, PRO day, and PRIvate top 30 visits

    Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

    • Buccaneers (COM)
    • Colts^ (COM, PRI)
    • Falcons^ (COM, PRI)
    • Giants (COM)
    • Lions (COM)
    • Panthers^ (COM, PRI, PRO)
    • Patriots (COM)
    • Raiders^ (COM, PRI, PRO)
    • Ravens^ (COM, PRI)
    • Saints (COM)
    • Seahawks^ (COM, PRI)
    • Texans^ (COM, PRI)
    • Titans (PRI)
    • Vikings (COM)

    Will Anderson, DE, Alabama

    • Bears (COM)
    • Cardinals (COM)
    • Texans^ (COM, PRO)

    Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

    • Buccaneers (COM)
    • Panthers^ (PRI, PRO)
    • Raiders (PRO)
    • Seahawks (PRO)
    • Texans (COM)
    • Titans (PRO)
    • Vikings (COM)

    Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

    Bears (COM)
    Panthers^ (PRI, PRO)
    Raiders (PRO)
    Seahawks (PRO)
    Texans^ (COM, PRI)

    C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

    Falcons (COM)
    Panthers^ (PRI, PRO)
    Raiders (COM)
    Seahawks (PRO)
    Texans^ (COM, PRI)

    • Geoff u

      Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

      Bears (PRI)
      Eagles (PRI)
      Falcons (COM)
      Lions (PRI)

    • Palatypus

      It is also worth noting that about over 20 team scouts and personnel were at the Florida/Kentucky game.

    • KD

      Interesting that Will Anderson has not had a visit with the Hawks

  28. samprassultanofswat

    To me it appears highly likely a team will trade up with Arizona. In fact, I would be almost shocked if no one traded up for the number three pick.

    I also am willing to believe deep down the Cardinals are regretting the long-term commitment they made to Kyler Murray.

    Seattle is the perfect team to snag Richardson. I just got done listening to Mike Florio/Peter King talking about Richardson. Peter King fears that if a team (excluding Seattle) trades up for Richardson there is going to be enormous pressure to start Richardson day one. Bobby Beathard once told Peter King that he was under pressure to play Ryan Leaf Day one. Because fans were buying tickets to see Ryan Leaf play. Remember Anthony Richardson only has one year as a QB in College.

    Peter King also said that there was a team lower than the Carolina Panthers who was willing to trade up with Chicago. He said that same team and maybe other teams might trade with Arizona. According tp Peter King Arizona is holding all the cards. It sounds to me that they are going to get multiple offers.

  29. 509 Chris

    I hear a lot of people saying John would have to wait till draft day in case AR goes 1st to Houston. I disagree. First I think if AZ trades they’ll want to do it before tye draft to maximize the deal they get. 10 minutes isn’t a lot of time if there’s several teams interested. Secomd I think if AR goes 1 than you pivot to Levis or even Stroud if Houston really loves Young (possibly the most ready to start of the bunch) To me it’s about making damn sure to get a qb out of this #5 pick while the opportunity is there. I think all these guys are worth it just don’t monkey around and let them all get taken 1-4 and then sell yourself on the consolation prize of a great D line prospect instead. (Albeit I’ll idmit that’s a hell of a consolation prize)

    • JimN

      Point well made. We can assume JS loves all four, but say they only like 2. Would JS risk 1.20 with a big question mark if their guys would be there? I don’t think he would. But say JS loves three or all four, then yes, a trade could happen ahead of time to your point. No reason to screw around.

  30. PJ in Seattle

    You make a good point. I still believe AZ doesn’t want to drop too far and already knows what Seattle is willing to give on draft day if AR or Stroud is there. So they can play the market for the next couple of weeks knowing they stay put and land Anderson, or trade with Seattle for an additional player and still get Anderson.

    Sure, someone could knock their socks off pre-draft but it would have to be a ridiculous haul, multiple firsts and a second and third probably, for them to drop into the teens.

  31. cha


    Dov Kleiman
    There is “buzz leaguewide” about the #Colts selecting Will Levis 4th overall, according to

    Fowler says that several NFL teams believe Levis could be the pick for Indianapolis.

    • Brett

      Sure hope so, but saw this from a Colts beat writer

      Destin Adams
      The #Colts like Levis more than a lot of teams do for sure, and I think they’d be happy with him at 4.

      But if Richardson and Levis are there at 4, from what I’ve been told I believe they’d take Richardson.

      We are officially in April though folks so the wait is almost over!

      • Palatypus

        In other news, water is wet.

  32. Matt

    How focused on Will Anderson is Arizona? If they’re committed to getting him in a trade down then Seattle is their only market for their pick. If they trade down any further they lose out on him.

    If AZ truly wants Anderson then it shouldn’t cost pick 20 to move up.

    • Rushless pass

      With Arizona switching to a 4-3 how effective would Will Anderson be?

    • AMacaulay

      This makes perfect sense to me.
      And to take it a step further, if they want Anderson or Wilson they will miss out by trading back further than 6 or 7.
      Lots to figure out and gauge where players will go. In JS I trust

    • Rob Staton

      They might be more committed to getting the biggest possible haul in a trade

      They are at ground zero

      • Hoggs41

        They are and hopefully they stay there. They could be looking at the first overall pick there.

      • PJ in Seattle

        AZ is a hot mess but the new coach and new GM aren’t married to Kyler. Bidwell is I guess, but maybe he’s seen enough too.

        Crazy to think that they may just be the dark horse for Richardson? If no one offers them a king’s ransom for #3. maybe they swing for the fences with the guy who could actually be a 6’4, 235lb version of the cheat code they thought they were getting with Kyler. They could do it, planning to redshirt him year one or until Murray gets injured again.

        It would be one hell of a soap opera in that locker room, but there’s an alternate timeline somewhere where this could happen.

        • Rob Staton

          I think if they were doing that they appoint a different Head Coach

          • PJ in Seattle

            Gannon’s been very public about his love of Kyler Murray’s skill set. But what he’s raved about are the same things that Richardson has shown, only in an actual NFL stud QB body.

            Hope I’m wrong and they are 100% focused on defensive BPA, but I wouldn’t be shocked.

            • Rob Staton

              It’s too much drama given they’re locked into Murray for two more years and they have no defense

  33. Julian L

    The way this idea to trade up #3 needs to be looked at is, would you trade up for Levis, Young or Anderson, because that effectively could be the choice? I’m not sure I would, when one of them is falling to you anyway, most likely Anderson.

    Didn’t the Chiefs and the Bills trade for their targets at the moment they were in reach. They weren’t speculating with their trades. The 49ers were all over the place with their trade for Trey Lance and it shows.

    If Seattle want to trade up for a player who’s worth it and won’t likely be available at #5, they have to trade with the Texans. There’s many reasons why the Texans might trade unless they’re taking Richardson or Stroud themselves, in which case there’s no point trading to #3 anyway.

  34. Hoggs41

    For me RB is a bigger position of need than most think. What round would everyone like to see them target one? I wouldnt hate it if it was the second round. (Maybe Gibbs or Charbonnet)

    • Rob Staton

      We all accept it’s a need

    • Julian L

      I’m often Mocking two when I play ‘that’ game. Tyjae Spears in the 3rd if we pick up an extra pick with a trade down at #20 and Chris Rodriguez Jr in the sixth is often my favourite combination.

    • Glor

      Yes, but.
      The market has crashed, if the money isn’t there for good rbs then I would prefer we wait till at least 3 to target the position as you can pickup good guys in fa these days for not much money (relatively)

    • cha

      Take a look at Rob’s last horizontal board.

      Rounds 3-4 are loaded with options.

      • bv eburg

        For me
        1 early who strikes fear
        1 after 3rd more as filler.

        But I want at least one stud. Walker was hurt twice last year and I don’t want filler if he goes down.

      • Palatypus

        And then it falls off a cliff.

      • Rob Staton

        I have an update ready to roll

        • bv eburg

          Mock or horizontal?

          • Rob Staton


    • IDhawk

      Seems like there will be good day 3 options (Kendre Miller, Roschon Johnson, Zack Evans maybe Sean Tucker if he falls). Would rather they focus on BPA early and I think only Bijan and Charbonnet really fit their mold days 1-2. Love Charbonnet though and wouldn’t be mad with that pick in the 2nd.

      • PJ in Seattle

        Charbonnet would be a very nice get. I suspect we spend rounds 1 & 2 focusing on the trenches though, especially if we go QB with our first pick.

        Still a lot of good RB depth as you cited. I like Chase Brown and Kenny McIntosh as well. As luxurious as it would be to pair a Bijan, Gibbs, or Charbonnet with Walker, I feel like this a class where they could wait until round 3 and still come away with a very nice complimentary back.

        Tajae Spears is my personal fave and could be that guy. He is eerily Ekler-like. Thinking he won’t last until the third now though.

        • bv eburg

          The only late round flyer last year that wowed me was Pacheco with KC. If we could grab someone like Charbonnet late 2 or 3 and then someone like Deuce Vaughn later you could put some scary packages together.

  35. Glor

    I would say the only counter to this argument of moving up is that we are all making the assumption that we would be moving up for AR (or whomever). But there is no guarantee “their” guy will be there. Now, if there are 3 guys that they are totally in love with and feel the fit or talent falls off after 3, then move up. But if they, as you have been saying, will be happy with any of the 5, then stay put. I wouldn’t want to see us move up to 3 before the draft and then see them move back down because they missed out or they spent the pick and we head later that it wasn’t the guy they were targeting…. So I don’t know, if there is only one guy they really want, then I would say to wait till the draft to move up if he’s there.

    • Julian L

      I think it’s likely too late to trade up, at least with Arizona, once draft day has arrived. I think if they’re going to move, Arizona will have moved out of #3 before the draft (personally I don’t think Seattle should do a pre draft trade to #3, #2 on the other hand, I’m all in).

      If the Cardinals don’t move by draft day, it’s because they’re set on taking Anderson. In the entirely unforseen circurmstance Anderson goes in the first two picks, Arizona might then be open to trades in the moments they’re on the clock.

      • Glor

        I’m not saying don’t trade up early, I’m just saying only do it if there are only 3 guys you value that highly. Or you are really really confident “your guy would be there”. I’m not sold in Houston taking young is all.

      • PJ in Seattle

        Anderson is a much better fit for our 3-4 D than he is for AZ’s 4-3. Maybe they get crazy and take Jalen Carter?

        My God, the rejoicing in my house should that happen could be heard all the way to Scotland…

    • Rob Staton

      I would say the only counter to this argument of moving up is that we are all making the assumption that we would be moving up for AR (or whomever). But there is no guarantee “their” guy will be there.

      Not sure why this keeps coming up

      Have said a few times — you trade up with three guys you love if you do it now

      You might anticipate which one is there but you only do it with three great players available (and I believe the Seahawks can easily find three in this class)

      • Glor

        Ya, I hadn’t read all the comments before commenting.

        I agree there will be 3 they like, but I also think you have made good points earlier regarding them liking all 5 good options. If that’s the case then I say sit put. But if they rate 3 that much higher than the other two, then by all means move up

  36. Hawkster

    Im thinking
    1. SEA definitely wants a QB and
    2. SEA definitely preferS it not be Young.

    So if Young goes 2 the only risk is being leapfrogged.

    But if Young is not taken 1 or 2, then they want 3 to make their pick of the reamaining non-Young QB, whoever that is.

    They could have a trade in the wings, or ARI requies the trade ahead they dont want to be left fishing if Young goes 2.

    To me ARI requires #20, it is what seperates SEA from the other QB needy teams … the extra 2023 1st *and get their #1 nonQB pick of the entire draft.

    In my mocks I trade down #20 to a mid late 20s and a 3rd, and you lose that with this trade. Not nearly as sweet a haul as sitting tight and getting a QB you want at 5

    • Avery Garmire

      The draft value chart says 37, and that’s slightly higher than the template value. Arizona gets the exact player they want and couldn’t get Anderson through any other team/offer. Given that dynamic I think we’d be crazy to give up anything higher than 52.

      • Hawkster

        But the draft value chart falls apart in this circomstance.

        To go to #3, give up #6, 37, 49 and a 2nd the following year. 2540 plus another 2nd in future or roughly 2700 for #3 (2200)

        • Hawkster

          But on the flip side a mid-ish 1st now (20) has some power. If it happens with SEA I expect at leasr #20. Otherwise tell the division rival to get lost

      • 509 Chris

        I’m gonna use the old cliche don’t cut of your nose to spite your face. If you want a qb go get him. Don’t get too caught up in what the value chart says about #20 or #37.

        • Avery Garmire

          20 would just be a gross absurd overpayment, the chart is simply an approximation of the value difference between your typical 3rd overall and 5 overall, every year is unique, if there were 5 great players where nobody could agree whom was better, there would be almost no compensation necessary. In this unique case we all know they take the EXACT player they were taking anyway, so they incur no real risk, and frankly do not deserve 37 in compensation for that. If it were me I’d say “you can take a mid second round pick (52) for nothing then draft Will Anderson or you can draft Will Anderson at 3 and have fun on your rebuild”. If they prefer an extra second round pick next year and want the third or fourth defensive player available this year go ahead, but I think their fans probably would be disappointed not getting Anderson, and we’re simply the only team they can do that through. Again, it’s take a mid second or nothing and they have no real choice there.

          • Rob Staton

            If you end up with a franchise QB, nobody cares about 20

  37. Blitzy the Clown

    I wonder if the deal with Arizona ends up being 3 + 20 + 37 for 5 + 34

    • Blitzy the Clown

      Transposed the 3 and 5 but you get what I mean

    • 509 Chris

      I haven’t decided if everyone saying 37 should get it done are just Seattle fans that want to keep the extra 1st or if that’s actually real value. This is a bit of a compromise to that though either way.

      • Rob Staton

        Per the updated chart it’s fair value

        But whether that would get it done 🤷‍♂️

        I suspect not

  38. Avery

    I’ve been saying this for a while, that assuming we want to draft a QB high, it would make too much sense from both teams perspectives not to trade with the Cardinals and get the third choice. Given all draft situations are unique, and values are somewhat arbitrary base point, I think it would be absurd though to give up more than the 52 pick. Cardinals would be smelling like roses, they take the EXACT player they were taking anyway and getting a mid second round pick, they’re just not getting a better offer than that period. Only reason they’d take a different offer is if they believed Will Anderson was not a cut above in value the fourth best defensive player available, and I don’t buy that for a second. Given they’d get the exact player they want and can’t get a better offer, I genuinely feel like our third round pick is a more equitable deal.

  39. EIEIO

    There’s a “clash” between whether the Seahawks should stay or go, from #5 up to #3. Here’s the dilemma to music:

    Readers of this blog have talked about what the Seahawks should do with the #5 pick ad infinitum. In truth, across the remaining days and weeks, the drama surrounding the top five picks of the 2023 NFL Draft is promising to become epic. This is especially cogent for the Seahawks who are smack in the midst of the blood-letting. Unraveling what will likely happen with the first 5 picks (and even the top 8 to 12 selections), is akin to loosening the legendary Gordian knot. The situation is so tightly wound and intricately tangled that the only way for the Seahawks to achieve a decisive solution to this seemingly insurmountable problem is to either cleave the knot asunder, or gallup off in a different direction.

    Armed with multiple cutting-edge draft picks, it should logically be straight-forward to move up a mere two slots without sacrificing the future. This would be like cutting the knot. A fair value trade according to the classic Jimmy Johnson valuation chart would be #3 (2200 points) in exchange for #5+#37 (2230 points). However, first round QBs garner a premium, and the Bidwell’s are unlikely to provide succor to a foe who bested them twice in the past year alone. No doubt they would demand a inordinate ransom from the Seahawks, playing one team against another in order to drive up the stakes. Therefore, the real question is to what degree is Seattle willing to propitiate to their arch-rival – the Cardinals, in order to move into a more strategic position to draft their preferred QB, if QB it is? Methinks Seattle must draw a line in the sand. They should not be willing to pay more for #3 than #5+#20 (2550).

    The pipe dream (and with respect, that’s what it is at this stage – a pipe dream) of what Anthony Richardson has the potential to become is enticing; I don’t know what the realistic odds are, but it is not unfathomable to make such a projection, especially if it’s not your money at stake. It is fun, it’s possible, and it is what GMs and Head Coaches are Paid to do. But, at the end of the day it requires an unemotional analytical assessment because ultimately it is a value proposition. A trade-up to #3 from #5 is not a one-for-one comparison. At minimum it’s a #3 for #5+#37 or #20 proposition. In gaining a QBoTF (Richardson (or whomever) we are not only sacrificing the #5 pick for the best player available (Anderson or whomever); we are also giving up (at minimum) at least one more draft pick, and one who could turn out to be a star in his own right. Further, there is no guarantee that the player(s) we want most will even be there at #3.

    Were I the GM for Arizona, I would prefer to deal with two non-division teams below Seattle, specifically the holders of picks #7 and #8, Las Vegas and Atlanta, respectively. I might not get Anderson, but I’m still going to get a top player at a needed position. They will garner a bigger haul without directly contributing to Seattle’s future. As mentioned by Rob previously, this also avoids any unpleasant repercussions (odor) should Seattle end up picking the next superstar with that pick. That is what I think they will do.

    The Seahawks IMO, should gallop off in a different direction, especially since they are shielded with the #5 selection. By holding firm, they cannot lose. Their selection may remain cloaked in mystery until they are on the clock, but they are guaranteed a QBoTF or Will Anderson – arguably the best player in the whole draft. They cannot lose. They say one in the hand is better than two in the bush…this is the case of two in hand is better than one in the bush. Haha! I just re-read that last line. Okay, LOL…I’m talking football. Go Seahawks!

    • EIEIO

      Sorry about the length of my “comment”. Guess I got carried away.

      • PJ in Seattle

        Don’t apologize. Good fan post an well written. I like the cut of your jib.

        I think AZ’s price for Seattle is absolutely #5 and #20, and I believe JS has already put that on the table with them on the condition that “an unnamed QB” is there when they are on the clock. AZ knows they can pick up another first round selection and very likely the same player they would take at #3 (Will Anderson).

        If I was the GM, I’d be talking to Ossenfort and would tell him straight up: “Look, if the QB we like is there, I will be calling you. You can take your guy, or know that Seattle’s willing to give you your guy, plus pick #20. Keep that in your back pocket and if someone offers you some ridiculous haul pre-draft, good for you. But if not, it’s you and me I expect to be talking when you guys go on the clock.”

        • PJ in Seattle

          Or maybe he’s put on the table #5 and #37 – but may be privately willing to give #20 instead if the boner is there on draft day.

        • EIEIO

          Appreciate it! Hope it works out the way you outlined.

        • 509 Chris

          I agree other than I imagine John said don’t make any deal without checking back in with us. The Pete and John brain trust has at times made up their mind and been willing to get a little crazy to follow through. None of us knows exactly how bad they want a qb I guess but I’m getting tired of the speculation. I’m almost wishing for a coma until draft day.

      • Malanch

        Well said, EIEIO.

        “They should not be willing to pay more for #3 than #5+#20.”

        Hmmm, that’s interesting. If Anthony Richardson is just kinda-sorta worthy of a trade-up, then yeah, 5 + 20 might frame in a rough cap on his value. But if Richardson is this bona fide QBotF prospect we’re talking about, this potentially transcendent player, then that limit will be much higher than anything the draft charts might say.

  40. Malanch

    I don’t know whether anyone has brought this up already, but Todd McShay insists that Bryce Young won’t get hit nearly as much in the NFL as he did in the SEC, due to the NFL’s greater protection of quarterbacks. (I bring up Young simply because he factors into this beautiful Top 5 mess we’ve got, and because some have speculated that his diminutiveness could drop him.) McShay says he reviewed every single hit Young took during his time at Alabama, counting something like 14 of them that would not have been allowable hits in an NFL game.

    I can’t help but think he’s on to something. Indeed, the game gets flag-footballier with each passing year, so Young could feasibly make his way through each season just fine, no differently than any other quarterback with a knack for seeing the field, navigating the pocket, creating space, and getting rid of the ball. That’s how Young could posterize any team that passes on him: by being available for 15–17 starts per season, season after season. Beasts like Richardson and Levis eagerly embrace contact while Young entirely avoids it, and this could factor into the career longevity of each.

  41. Anthony

    Anderson is a good not great prospect with excellent character. But as Rob and many here have said he’s not going to come in and be a Von Miller, Myles Garrett, or a Bosa brother.

    With that said, how much better is Anderson when compared to guys like Will McDonald, Derick Hall, or other guys highlighted here? I can see he’s definitely better than Nolan Smith, Isaiah Foskey, the Kansas State guy, and the Clemson duo.

    But is getting Anderson + one of Ade Ade/Keion White + a center a better haul than a QB like AR or WL + Will McDonald/center + one of Ade Ade/Keion White/Derick Hall? Thought it’d be an interesting discussion.

    • Malanch

      Anthony Richardson alone is probably a better haul than all of those players put together.

  42. Wilson502 Seahawks need to make a deal and get their QBoTF.

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