Season stats after the Vikings game
Bradley McDougald is having a great season but the blown coverage that led to Laquon Treadwell’s touchdown on Monday seemingly impacted his passer rating when targeted. His rating rose from 29.4 to 40.0 and he’s dropped from #4 in the league to #6. He’s fourth overall for safety’s behind Earl Thomas, Tashaun Gipson and Justin Simmons. Despite the error, it’s still an impressive mark.
Quandre Diggs is also excelling with a rating of 43.3 when targeted.
McDougald’s yards-per-target score (4.6) is almost identical to Thomas’ (4.5) too. They’re also conceding a very similar completion percentage (47.4% for Thomas, 47.5% for McDougald). Diggs’ completion percentage is 50% although his yards per target score is much higher (9.4).
Unsurprisingly the top ranked cornerbacks for passer rating when targeted are Stephon Gilmore (44.1), Tre’Davious White (46.9), Ahkello Witherspoon (48.9), Richard Sherman (52.2) and Jimmy Smith (53.6). Interestingly, Tre Flowers isn’t too far behind at 65.6. Getting up to three interceptions will help. He’s scoring higher than Marlon Humphrey (73.2), Denzel Ward (79.7), Jaire Alexander (83.0), Carlton Davis (83.7) and Marshon Lattimore (85.2). They were all first or second round picks between 2017 and 2018. Flowers was a fifth round pick in 2018.
It’s further evidence of Pete Carroll’s ability to draft and develop cornerbacks.
Shaquill Griffin has a passer rating when targeted of 85.4. This is undoubtedly due to his lack of interceptions so far. A couple between now and the end of the season will have a big impact on his score.
As a consequence of the Vikings game, Griffin’s completion percentage has risen from 50.9% to 52.2%. Flowers marginally improved his rating from 58.2% to 58%. In comparison, Stephon Gilmore’s completion percentage is 51.4%. Both players are clearly playing very well.
Earlier this year Mychal Kendricks led the league in missed tackle percentage. He’s now only ranked 15th in the league with 21.5% missed tackles. However, a new Seahawk is rising up the list unfortunately. Quandre Diggs has now missed 26.3% of his tackles — the third most in the league.
Jadeveon Clowney is ranked 16th for pressures (29), ninth for hurries (15) and 11th in for QB knockdowns (11). These are impressive marks when you consider Clowney is only credited with one blitz for the entire season. In comparison, T.J. Watt leads the league for pressures (46) but he’s blitzed 65 times. Shaquill Barrett at Tampa Bay has 36 pressure but he’s blitzed 148 times. Chandler Jones has 31 pressures but has blitzed 108 times.
Clowney is creating a similar level of pressure but doing it within a conservative scheme.
The other players who are also doing this are:
Joey Bosa — 0 blitzes 43 pressures
Aaron Donald — 0 blitzes 43 pressures
Cam Jordan — 11 blitzes 41 pressures
Everson Griffen — 0 blitzes 32 pressures
Nick Bosa — 1 blitz 32 pressures
Danielle Hunter — 0 blitzes, 30 pressures
That’s the kind of company Clowney is keeping this year, despite arriving late in Seattle and dealing with an injury. He’s a top-level defensive lineman who must be retained.
Overall on defense the Seahawks have the fourth fewest sacks (23) — they’re sandwiched between the Lions, Bengals, Falcons and Dolphins. Their sack percentage (4.6%) is the third worst in the NFL.
They’re also the fourth weakest team in terms of pressure percentage (20.2%) — again flanked by the Falcons, Dolphins, Lions and also the Texans. They have the third fewest TFL’s (39)
They’ve also given up the fourth most yards on defense (3232) — topping only Arizona, Tampa Bay and Detroit.
It’s incredible really that they’re 10-2 with these numbers. It’s equally baffling to see they have the seventh most interceptions (11), their touchdown percentage (3.2%) is the fifth best in the league behind only New England, Buffalo, Baltimore and Chicago, they have the eighth most pass deflections (57) and they’re seventh in the NFL for passer rating (85.8). They’re also ranked in the top-10 for third down defense (36.2% conversions).
Imagine how good they’d be with a consistently strong pass rush?
In terms of run defense, they’ve given up 99.6 rushing yards per game (eighth best in the NFL). That’s a definite improvement on a year ago.
On offense the Seahawks are running the ball the way they like. They currently rank third in rushing yards after contact:
Baltimore — 1019
Tennessee — 937
Seattle — 922
Buffalo — 850
Jacksonville — 827
They also average 2.5 yards after contact per carry, the fifth best mark in the league. They’ve also broken 34 tackles in the running game, second only to the Saints (36).
They’re also third in the league for rushing yards (1724) behind only Baltimore (2494) and San Francisco (1776). Interestingly though, they’ve achieved those yards on 376 attempts — fewer than the Niners (400) and Ravens (445).
In the passing game, the Seahawks have had only 13 drops this year. Only Atlanta (12) and Baltimore (9) have fewer.
2019 special teams emphasis
New England has three players on their roster purely for special teams value. The Seahawks took a similar approach this year and made a big statement during free agency and the draft.
The selection of Travis Homer and Ben Burr-Kirven plus the addition of Nick Bellore were clearly for special teams value. They retained Neiko Thorpe as special teams captain and made a big push to add Jason Myers.
It’s not uncommon for the Seahawks to do this either. In 2013 they had Chris Maragos, Heath Farwell, Michael Robinson and others with a main or strong responsibility on special teams.
It’s something to consider when assessing decisions in the future. There was a lot of talk from fans in pre-season about Bellore’s role, Thorpe being cut and who they may or may not keep. This team, like most winning teams, places a big emphasis on special teams.
They needed to get back on track with this unit. In the last three games, we’ve seen a marked improvement and that’s a very encouraging sign for the rest of the 2019 season.
What kind of receiver is needed?
I received this question on twitter earlier today…
@robstaton what kind of WR should the Seahawks be looking at in the draft? Not particular players, but what's the prototype? Big athlete to play outside? Smaller guy who can play underneath from the slot?
— C S (@cascadiasports_) December 4, 2019
The answer is clear — speed and suddenness.
We need to look for players who create easy separation and can play a variety of roles — whether it’s the slot or outside. They have size with D.K. Metcalf (although he needs to develop skills to make more of his frame) and they will almost certainly add another tight end at some point. Josh Gordon could also be retained. They need another dynamic speed receiver. Thankfully this draft class is loaded with early round options.
The only question is whether or not the likes of Jalen Reagor, Henry Ruggs, K.J. Hamler and others will be available whenever the Seahawks pick. It’s possible all could rise quickly up the board — especially if they run as well as expected at the combine.
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Appreciate the stats, Rob. Was wondering if its possible to add the # of times someone has been targeted when discussing the metrics? The point being made stands but it would be nice context to see, for example, if Flowers has been targeted a bunch times more than say Richard Sherman, etc. etc.
With the blitz numbers, also, its pretty clear they don’t consider what a defensive lineman is doing as “blitzing”. All of the guys mentioned like Watt and Barrett play in 3-4 defenses as stand up LB’s versus guys like Donald and Clowney who play with their hands in the dirt. Nothing to add there, just wanted to make it noted as to why it might seem like Clowney only has one “blitz” despite the fact he’s going after the QB on nearly every play. Was just weird to me initially.
Not all of TJ Watt’s snaps are registered as a blitz though. So while scheme makes a difference, it’s not as simple as them defining every rush by a 3-4 OLB as a blitz. It’s not explained but I suspect it means that players are rushed as part of a creative blitz vs lining up as a base end. After all, they register Clowney with a blitz and some other 4-3 linemen with a handful of blitzes.
Targets are not listed unfortunately for cornerbacks but whether he gets targeted a lot or not a lot —- having similar numbers to Gilmore isn’t a bad thing at all.
Thanks! I definitely figured they have some convoluted basis for determining what is and isn’t a blitz. Would be nice to know.
And agreed, definitely not bad to have similar numbers to Gilmore at all. Can only assume that someone like Gilmore gets targeted way less times per game than someone like Shaq, which would make the statistics that much more of a feat.
Who’s your fav speed / suddenness guy? I like Reagor esp considering his QB.
Also be interesting to see some stats on the other side of the ball. Some amazing rushing production vs some top 10 rush defenses. And how about the OL playing through 3 qtrs with no penalties. Man, how far this line has come since the Cable days.
Also be interesting to see stats on cost. It’s probably one of the least expensive lines in the league, shame it’ll need another overhaul just when it’s purring…
Thx for all the great analysis and discussion , Rob
Pauline in Reagor: In early November, you reported that TCU WR Jalen Reagor would enter the NFL Draft. On Monday, he announced his intention to do just that. Now that his name is in the mix, where do you see him going in the NFL Draft compared to someone like Henry Ruggs or other similar size/speed guys?
First, let me say I am not as high on Ruggs as others and I would grade him lower than prospects like Jalen Reagor, K.J. Hamler, and CeeDee Lamb. Ruggs is a great sprinter but not a great receiver and a beneficiary of the talent around him.
Presently I have Reagor graded as a second-day pick, likely somewhere in the middle of round two. That will change either way depending on how he works out – forty, shuttles, three-cone, and route running at the combine.
I like Reagor and think he will be effective on the flanks, in the slot, or as a return specialist in the NFL. As more underclassmen receivers enter the draft – and I expect K.J. Hamler and CeeDee Lamb will enter the draft as well as Jerry Jeudy – Reagor will get pushed down the board a bit.
Raegor is my #1 choice for WR excluding the top guys.
I’m really intrigued by the idea of adding Shenault to Metcalf, Gordon, Lockett. I dont think many NFL teams have the personnel to cover that.
Devonta Smith for me. With Reagor next. I have to admit I haven’t watched much PSU and thus don’t have a strong opinion of Hamler.
We won’t have a shot at a lot of these guys, but Ruggs would be a dream player in this scenario. Who would you choose to take out of the game if you’re a DC? Lockett? DK? Ruggs with his elite speed and explosion? I have a few serious draft crushes and most of them would require a significant move up the board. Isaiah Simmons, Ruggs, one of the OT’s all would improve this roster in some way.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2865274-matt-millers-third-quarter-3-round-2020-nfl-mock-draft
If the draft fell like this, I would like Chaisson, and i would be extremely interested in trading up for Raekwon Davis.
Chaisson will not go that early.
But then any mock that has Paulson Adebo in the top 15…. my word 🤦♂️
There is so much wrong with that mock. Not saying I have all the answers because I don’t. But that was an astonishing read.
BR is trash. Don’t waste your time Coleslaw. Isn’t Matt Miller the guy that called the selection of Russell Wilson “one of the worst picks of the entire draft”?
Stick with SDB or Fieldgulls if you want actual football analysis.
Tua to the Chargers? The team just having lost a full season to injuries? Too much for me to stomach.
Jalen Raegor in R3? Walker Little at #65? If that is the value to be found that late, let the trade down party begin!
Reager in R3 is a nonsense.
I will keep pounding the table for Hamler. He is the perfect fit IMO and is an awesome ST player as well.
In the event that the Seahawks somehow miss out on the top WR’s in the 1-st couple of rounds, perhaps because they are filling other needs or trading down. However, there are a few interesting WR’s likely available in Round 3 and beyond. So, there are a few consolation prizes potentially available later.
–If they want a possession slot receiver in the ADB mold, WR-Devin DuVernay from Texas could be a viable option. DuVernay has great production this year, and is good at short to medium routes to retain possession.
–If they want a good WR that is also a viable kick returner, then WR-Brandon Aiyuk of Arizona St. fits well, he is known as explosive as well as being fairly fast and productive. (#2 in FBS in punt returns).
–If they want a tall, fast, productive WR in the Metcalf mold, WR-Isaiah Hodgins of Oregon St. fits well.
–If they want to take a long shot on a smaller school guy that is at or near the top in receiving stats in the NCAA, then WR-Omar Bayless of Arkansas State fills the bill, he’s also 6-3 and is fast and shifty.
– Lots of options could be available.
Here is what I like about Seattle right now….
THE DEFENSE is playing better and appears to have more room to improve AND
THE OFFENSE is playing better both the rushing and passing attack AND
THE ST is playing a little better, but could improve with punt/kick return coverage.
I’m encouraged by both Homer and Moore taking some workload off of Lockett on ST.
…. so they are still not playing their best collective football, but have room to improve. At this rate, they will be peaking right around the playoffs…. and could play themselves into the NFCC game (at the minimum).
2019 has been a hell of a ride, but please buckle up and keep all arms and legs inside the “car”, it ain’t over yet!
On Safety players stat, I watched my favorite player Earl Thomas and i was surprised to see missed so many tackles. May be he is up and down in performance overall. I don’t miss him like I thought earlier.
It’s true we should trust PC and JS.
For Husky fans out there, the Peterson/Cohen/Lake press conference was pretty cool. It’s about 44 minutes. Coach Pete is about as authentic as it gets for a guy in his position. Jimmy Lake is gonna bring something cool and exciting to the program. There’s a bit of RW to him which I see as a positive. A glint in his eye. Definitely see him going to the NFL eventually if he leads UW to prominence.
Cohen mentioned that Lake has complete autonomy over his coaching staff. I’d bet we see a new OC in 2020.
Here’s a link to the press conference, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYq_6MRPXDs
Beautiful seamless transition that even gives committed players the chance to opt out before early signing period of December 18th. Total class.
The there’s USC. Disarray. More Clay Helton, and a recruiting class ranked 60th in the nation. LOL
I don’t like these seamless transitions from one coach to another. At least interview a few other guys and see what they have to say. Can’t say I was impressed with the husky defense this year either. I thought they should have brought in a QB orientated head coach.
The Huskies lost 9 starters on defense last year. Everyone knew that this was going to be a slight step-back year on defense. They’ve led the PAC 12 in defense almost every year since Jimmy Lake and Chris Petersen have been here. They will again soon.
Our AD Jen Cohen knew for quite some time that Jimmy Lake was going to be the man. If you’ve already got who you want, why waste your time interviewing people who you aren’t going to hire them? Is that fair to them? Why the pointless exercise?
Let’s just hope this seamless transition goes better than the last “seamless transition” in the Seattle area
(Holmgren to Mora)
I see this more as a Bob Stoops to Lincoln Riley transition.
PS> I also read today that there are more black head coaches in the PAC 12 today than in the other power 5 conferences combined.
I hope one day we don’t have to keep bringing up race all the time.
Yeah, but until that day we must. And that day won’t be here for quite some time.
I don’t think we’ll get there while ever everyone is constantly pointing out people’s skin colour. I think we are actually regressing here. In the 90’s and 00’s the sentiment was generally to identify everyone as a person not by skin colour. These days we spend SO much time in the west pointing out someone’s race.
It’s one of those damned if you do/damned if you don’t things. The fact is that things don’t get better until such disparities in opportunity are pointed out and addressed. That much we know for sure. History. If the playing field was statistically level from the start, then race wouldn’t be the issue it is in America. But it’s statistically not. By a long shot.
Because the race issue was addressed in sports these past decades, a lot of improvement in such disparities in opportunity have been addressed and improved upon. Let’s face it. Pro football and college football is largely a black man’s game relative to the general population. Employment throughout the economy of the sport should reflect this fact. It’s getting better. But we’re not nearly there yet.
“Let’s face it. Pro football and college football is largely a black man’s game relative to the general population. Employment throughout the economy of the sport should reflect this fact. It’s getting better. But we’re not nearly there yet.”
Why should it reflect that? Sincerely. Playing a sport is entirely different than coaching, scouting, marketing, and other front office work. Just because someone is a brilliant Physicist doesn’t mean they would make a brilliant hedge fund manager.
By all accounts, Chris Petersen AND Jimmy Lake were not very good football players, considering their success as major coaches. Isn’t this a really great example of how we are evaluating entirely different skills between playing and coaching? Additionally, we are talking about a career with VERY limited numbers. Trying to apply broad based demographic statistics to these things is really futile.
This obsession with immutable characteristics has ruined many things over the past 10 years…and I don’t want it to ruin one of the last, true bastions of meritocracy – sports.
*I know your heart is in the right place, but I think this talking point is really moving things backwards, not forward.
My heart being in the right place has little to do with it. We have black coaches now because the issue was addressed. Same for black journalists, sportscasters, commentators, front office personnel, and the like throughout the economy of the sport. Yes, things have gotten better. But let’s not pretend the playing field is level and meritocratic now throughout the industry.
It’s easy for someone to call something an “obsession” in another when it’s not a concern to them, for whatever the reason.
I don’t want to hijack the blog on this issue anymore than we have – but I think these terms like “level playing” field are completely loaded. There will never be a level playing field for a vast number of reasons, none of which have to do with immutable characteristics. The best we can do, on that front, is to make sure that people aren’t barred from things simply due to those immutable characteristics. If you can name me a law or something concrete that explains the discrepancy – I’m willing to listen and potentially fight for that issue. But I won’t go ghost hunting on this stuff, which is where I think we are at on the sports side of this conversation.
I don’t care what industry you are in, if your parent was a smashing success at the highest levels – you are going to get more chances than the average Joe, regardless of skin color. If you know people in a certain industry that have sway, you’re going to get more chances. That’s just human nature. Not terribly sure how people plan on legislating that.
Sorry Rob – I know this blog isn’t the place for this conversation. Feel free to delete any of my comments. This is the last one I will post on the issue.
My last post on this too. LOL Progress has been made on this issue in sport not because the issue was ignored, put to the side, left to work itself out, but rather for just the opposite reason; it was addressed head on in a variety of ways. I don’t think anyone sensible could seriously argue this fact.
That’s all.
I was just a little stunned to read that the PAC 12 (probably because it’s a more socially progress region of the country) had more black head coaches than the rest of the power 5 conferences combined. I don’t think the NCAA is at all comfortable with that considering that the majority of their players are black and most coaches come from the ranks of former players, however talented they may or may not have been.
Anyway…enough of this.
No need to apologise. I think you’re spot on.
Please leave sports out of politics, I literally come here to avoid this nonsense. Just stop.
Out of every post and comment you’ve made, I agree with this one the most ! Hard to overcome something when that’s all everyone want to talk about. Russel Wilson is my favorite player of all time, he’s not my favorite black player or black QB.
It’s all too easy for white people to say race doesn’t matter.
Amen.
Good thread, glad to see this kind of discourse remain civil and conscientious, whatever the forum.
Also appreciate your thoughts specifically, as they echo a lot of how I feel
And that’s the most important thing. That discourse remains civil. I for one appreciate opposing points of view. I like to keep an open mind. I once learned years ago that one has to consider the prospect that you just might be wrong. 🙂
Dilly Dilly
Amen, Rob. I know this isn’t the proper forum, but I think it’d behoove all of us to stop pretending it’s 1950, especially in sports.
Wow wonder what that might signify?
It’s interesting that Matty brown thinks that Shaquill blow that coverage.
https://twitter.com/mattyfbrown/status/1201729156758884352?s=19
And Brock Huard said it’s McDougald.
To me it looked obvious it was McDougald.
on the Pete Carroll Show he said that Quill missed the coverage call.
It is a certainty the back end of the defense has played much better since Diggs arrived. According to Robs stats, Diggs is now 3rd in the league in missed tackles, I am having trouble reconciling those two facts.
Don’t know what to say… football is no hedge fund, but a complex team sport fulll of interdepndenices?!
Qandre Diggs is a HUGE find by the FO. He is clearly a stabilizing factor in this D, his and Shaqeems advent have transformed the situation to a good degree.
In the first games, Kendricks was required to also protect a good chunk of space in his back. This made him easy prey to mismatches. Since Diggs and McDougald play together, he can concentrate on stuffing the run, and his numbers have recovered. The mismatch gap is closed.
Is there a way that we can measure the improvement in the Safety play.
The increase of good play from ST could also be the increased experience from the rookies, and the absence of Bellore & Thorpe these last few weeks. The rookies seem to be taking that leadership role onto themselves. The aforementioned players will probably not be on the roster next year anyway.
The way this team is clicking, both on the field and off, I think we should retain as much as we can in offseason. Resign clowney first and foremost. Then Reed, ifedi.
Signing a edge rusher is big, but I’d rather risk a couple smaller moves than going after bigger names and lose retaining our guys. Try and find that Chris Clemens gem. That under utilized guy. But keep this closeknit team together. I believe in the young guys and Schneider adding in the draft.
Of all the years I’ve seen from this regime, would this be the time to move up in draft if they really liked a certain player? The secondary is loaded with young talent. The front end has talent. Youth at LB. Offense looks stout, and wr depth is big in draft. Can nab a rb,te later. We have picks and tons of young depth throughout. They wont go crazy, but would they move up 10-15 spots for a gamechanger? Not there typical way. But no point in trading back to acquire picks they have a bunch. Seems like the last time they had a ton of depth and youth, they started trading for superstars. I dont see them doing that anymore. It never went as planned. But trading up for a stud lineman or elite wr, maybe that’s the shocker.
It’s too early to say what they might do in terms of moving up or down.
Rob the first couple of times you mocked or discussed a WR to the Hawks with thier first pick I thought it was a crazy idea as they spent a bunch of draft capital there last year and it seems like a solid position group already. But the more I look at this WR draft class the more sense it makes. Kind of like going DL last year made the most sense as that was a loaded position group.
If you can get a guy like Smith or Reagor at the end of RD #1 I think you almost have to jump at the chance to add an elite weapon like that. Both guys are legit 1st round talents who seem to get the easy separation Russ has always preferred with his focus on ball security. I think it is a huge adjustment for him this year with bigger WR like Metcalf and Gordon who most quarterbacks would be throwing back shoulder and jump balls because of thier size.
I still think they go OL or DL with the first pick but I completely understand your logic when you Mock them a WR now.
One thing that I don’t see discussed much and I think will be a huge off season decision is Mcdougalds contract status. He has really been solid and seems like a leader back there.
Do they bring him back and at what price or is that Marquis Blair’s spot next year? Have to admit Diggs and Blair back there would make some WR nervous going over the middle.
He signed through 2021, didnt he? IIRC his cap hit isn’t that terrible next year either. Should have at least one more year with him.
Sorry about that I thought he only signed a 2 year expension. I guess that is why it is not being talked about 🙂
That deal has been a steal IMO.
100%
Schneider is the best GM in the business.
FWIW I’m very certain the previous plan was to let McDouglad go and replace him with any of the young S’s but the thing is he’s been so much better than them.
I think that SEA has to resign him. But all the #’s are relative.
In fairness he needs to get at least one good payday and I sort of doubt that’s going to be here as he approaches 30 years old.
I don’t think that was the plan. They love McDougald. I think it’s the other spot they wanted to fill, along with playing some big nickel and having depth for the long term.
We still have a ways to go to get to that level of confidence that the SB team had against the “best offense of all time”. But it’s not out of reach.
The Untold Stories of Super Bowl XLVIII | Seahawks Stories
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nqyb7btZVA
I think the Hawks will find a way to extend Clowney and build the DL around him. What is the best way to compliment him if they do? Assuming they extend Jefferson, Woods and keep Green, Ford, Collier as other young pieces.
Dante Fowler seems like the most logical option and perhaps the best given his age, production and the type of pass rusher he is.
How about if the Hawks let Reed walk given the off field issues and fact that he has only really excelled 1 yr I can’t see them giving him a big extension. They could probably pickup at 3rd or 4th round comp if they do.
Also the Chiefs will likely Franchise Chris Jones but they have to extend Mahomes and Kelce so he might be the odd guy out. The Hawks could trade thier extra 2nd round pick back to the Chiefs for Jones then lock him up long term. They would still need to add a speed rusher but could take a 1 yr incentive laden flier on guy like Vic Beasley.
Option 1 2020 DL Clowney, Reed, Fowler, Jefferson, Ford, Woods, Collier, Green,
Option 2 2020 DL Clowney , Jones, Beasley, Jefferson, Woods, Ford, Collier, Green
I think I prefer option #2 as both Clowney and JOnes would compliment each other really well excelling both in the run and pass game. Would be a huge cap commitment but might be worth it.
For me the two most intriguing and realistic options are Everton Griffen and Dante Fowler.
I really like Fowler and Griffin as well if the price is right. Just think Jones is at a different level than either guy and still only 25 like Fowler.
Fowler is a good player and good fit, but man he seems like a real awful person to me. I think it’s telling that neither of the teams he’s been on have wanted to keep him around long term.
Im not sure they would want to pay Jones $20 mill a year after possible paying Clowney that much. I still believe in Green taking the next step and like the draft for edge (to keep young) versus paying a hefty contract to a veteran off someone elses team. Either way its going to be very interesting to follow.
Reed is going to be an interesting proposition/dilemma this off season, especially if he finishes the season strong. i don’t have a strong feeling at all as to how PC/JS are going to go about the idea of re-upping him or not. Of course, so much will depend upon the market for his services. I’m not sure how strong that will be. But my guess is that someone will choose to pay up for him.
Totally agree. Reed is going to be very interesting. I think they let him test the market – then make a push to sign, assuming he is not getting absurd offers.
That’s a fair guess.
I’m increasingly thinking the Hawks franchise Reed.
That keeps him locked through the free agent period. So they can focus on keeping Clowney through the first wave of FA, and see how their cap room works out, and evaluate what options there are Reed alternatives in the draft/FA/trade.
Then leading up to the draft, they can work on seeing what they can get in trade and then make a decision to keep him or swallow the $15-17m cap hit and repeat the process next year.
I really don’t think Reed is going to get elite DT $ but will still likely not be a Hawk next year.
On the plus side he seems like a locker room and had one really good year. On the negative side he has that ugly off field incident and only one really good year.
Agree complete Paul let him test the market and he might get paid big money but more likely he signs a one year prove it deal somewhere and I just think it will be with the Hawks because he will likely be upset they are not signing him long term. I definitely would not franchise him.
Yep, definitely don’t think Reed is a candidate for the franchise tag. Not sure what that number is, but likely beyond the value the team has in mind for him.
Reed is still a nice piece on this team, so they may try to resign him if the market is lukewarm. Don’t think they will be willing to go to the $15-17m level to retain him though.
Love the idea of pairing Clowney with another DE that can consistently pressure the QB. Maybe Fowler or Griffin are the answer, but either requires a trade and not sure the Vikings or especially the Rams want to do anything to help the Hawks.
There must be some other names out there for them to consider, even if it requires trading our R1 or a R2 pick.
A good comp for him is Grady Jarrett. He just signed for 4 years $68 million (17 per). Thats a big number to swallow when you just gave Bobby 18 and potentially Clowney 20.
Fowler will be a FA at the end of the year and Griffen could be a cut candidate. Personally I think our second pass rusher is on the team in Green. Something just tells me that we will take off next year. Last two mocks Ive seen have us taking Klavon Chaisson who is a freak type the Hawks usually like.
As with all contracts, the more important number to look at is the guaranteed money. Outside of the Jarrett contract, it looks like most of the recent DT contracts have been 25% to 35% guaranteed.
I don’t think Reed has the sack numbers to push for a top tier contract value. I would think its more likely he ends up at $12m-$13m AAV, ~30-33% guaranteed. Sheldon Richardson’s contract could be a good comp, maybe tack on a 4th year.
Pete said the blown coverage due to Shaq Griffin not getting a coverage call – not on McDougald.
You would think PFF could at least do right when given information for free. Guess not.
Thats one of the negatives of those metrics. They just take an educated guess on whos fault things are when they dont really know.
Greg H 100% right.
Gotta take these things with a huge drain of salt.
In my opinion the two keys for the rest of the season are turnovers/health. The Seahawks must PROTECT THE FOOTBALL. They had two turnovers last week. But they also forced two turnovers. Metcalf and Carson need to protect the football. They are trying to get extra yards and in the process they fumble the football. Anytime a Seahawk is running with the football I am screaming HOLD ON TO THE FOOTBALL. Yes it’s good to get the extra yardage but in the process they must protect the football.
The other issue is health. At this time of the year all teams have injuries. It’s just a matter keeping those injuries to a minimum. Can Clowney/Ziggy/Reed hold up the rest of the season. That is a HUGE question. Can the Hawks keep other injuries to a minimun. I feel bad that they lost both Wil Dissly and Justin Britt. Especially Dissly. But that is the luck of the draw. Chuck Knox use to say. “You play the hand you are dealt with”. So as I look forward to the final quarter of the regular season those two issues will be on my mind.
Besides health, I think my key for the rest of the season is the continued desire to get better till the clock runs out on the season. It’s hard to maintain that edge, that common purpose and desire in this way. PC and mini-Pete RW do such a good job of infecting the team with such a spirit. It also helps to be 10-2 and have things like division titles, top seeds, and a SB berth dangled in front of you.
I’ve been seeing promo for 100 greatest players done by Coaches on ESPN. So I decided to pick a team of what I think were the best players at their positions to make up my all time thing.
Special Teams:
Kicker – Adam Vinatieri
Punter- Ray Guy
Returner- Billy ‘Whiteshoes’ Johnson
Defense:
Cornerbacks- Deion Sanders
-Mike Haynes
Free Safety-Ronnie Lott
Strong Safety-Ed Reed
Middle Linebacker-Ray Lewis
Outside Linebacker-Jack Ham
Outside Linebacker- Lawerence Taylor
Defensive End-Reggie White
-Bruce Smith
Defensive Tackle-Cortez Kennedy
-Warren Sap
Offensive:
Tackle-Anthony Munuz
-Jackie Slater
Guard-John Hannah
-Russ Grim
Center Mike Webster
Wide Receiver-Jerry Rice
-Andre Reed
-Charlie Joiner
Tight End- Mike Ditka
Running Back-Barry Sanders
Full Back- Larry Csonka
Half Back-Gale Sayers
Quarter Back-Tom Brady
It was and off day so I took some time to throw this out there and would like to see your teams if you care to comment. Go Hawks.
Very good list overall. I think the most obvious change I would make is Dwight Stephenson above Mike Webster at center. I don’t think there is much comparison between those two players, especially in terms of overall athletic ability. Howie Long led the push to get Stephenson into the Hall of Fame, despite the shortened career caused by a disgraceful cheap shot from behind by a Jets player named Marty Lyons.
Tough to leave off Ray Lewis but I’ll still go with Dick Butkus as greatest middle linebacker of all time. Don Shula used to say he’d start a franchise with Butkus. Younger fans don’t realize how agile Butkus was for that size and style of play. Excellent against the pass.
Devin Hester at kick returner
On offensive skill positions I’d go more dynamic, with Kellen Winslow at tight end and Randy Moss at receiver.
I like that you made the correct choice with Tom Brady at quarterback. These days there’s a desperation to downgrade him and assign bulk of the credit to Belichick. Meanwhile I always like to look at big picture generalities above all. If someone were to describe an NFL era in nameless terms, that one team combined for 9 Super Bowl appearances and 6 victories in 18 seasons with the same head coach and quarterback throughout, and then asked fans and analysts whether the coach or quarterback deserved the most credit, the instant and correct response was that it had to be the quarterback. In real time it’s only obsession with details and comparisons that lead so many to prefer Belichick instead.
Once the dust clears and nobody even threatens Brady’s records, then he’ll properly elevate.
No Walter Jones? Come on haha. Love the Barry and Sayers picks
Little love for Joey Hunt thread.
OL has been quite a strength all season and credit to him for not missing a beat. Team really likes him and the protection and run game is strong as ever.
Big test upcoming against LA’s front
Good to see Anthony Gordon get the senior bowl invite.
If we take a QB he’d be an intriguing option for us. Strong arm, really good deep ball accuracy, athletic, needs to work on taking care of the football. Kinda the opposite of Minshew. If he had a handle on the turnovers he’d be ideal, but then again he’d probably require a lot higher of a pick.
I really liked Tyree Jackson,
Big arm, hard to tackle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9JL547ScXQ
I think one of the keys for the Ram game is can the Hawks put pressure on Goff? Goff is a totally different QB when he is under pressure. No QB likes to get hit. But I have seen Goff enough times to see him throw the ball early to avoid the hit. Especially if you can put pressure on Goff early in the game. Then he loses confidence and wants to get rid of the ball as fast as possible. But if you give him time. He can and has carved up many defenses. But unlike Russell Wilson he can’t carry an offense by himself. Goff has to have all the pieces around him. This year he doesn’t have that outstanding offensive line that he has had in the past. That is why it is critical to get after Goff early and often.
Rob – Given the PC/JS tendency over the years to factor the context of upcoming drafts into their personnel strategy, what do you think it says that they went so hard after receivers this year? I mean, they have to know that next year is a deep WR draft, no? Do you think they saw WR as such a glaring need that it’d take two drafts to fix? Or is there another (more under-the-radar) strength they might be targeting while everyone else looks at WR’s in the 2020 draft?
I have a few thoughts here. For starters, they actually didn’t prioritise WR that much in the 2019 draft. The Metcalf trade was an opportunity and they traded up to get him at the end of R2. But had he been taken a pick early, they probably don’t take a WR until R4. Jennings, who they took in that range, looked like an ideal Seahawks receiver. He had everything they liked and it was a predictable pick. I mocked him to Seattle in virtually all of our seven rounders. So that to me wasn’t a priority as much as just a good match, even if it ultimately didn’t work out for him. And then Usua was a R7 they wanted to take a shot on.
So they took three WR’s. But they didn’t, to me, make a big concerted effort here as much as they simply played the draft board.
And WR was a big need this year. They knew they were losing Baldwin after all. So I don’t think anything this year will impact next year. They still need a WR to add to what they have —- as emphasised by the Gordon signing and the Brown interest.
Just to play a little “devil’s advocate” here on a slow Thursday..let me list a couple reasons why I wouldn’t invest a first round draft pick in a WR this year..
1) if the draft is as deep as we think it is at WR..good talent will be available in later rounds
2) not enough targets available for someone who will potentially be 4th or 5th receiving option in a run first/pass second offense like the Seahawks
3) RW is such a good qb and throws such a catchable ball..he does not need elite talent at the WR position to succeed. e.g. the combo of J Brown/M. Turner and D Moore are on track for a combined 60 recs/800 yards in production this year.
My (very early) preference would be to either trade back into Round 2..or grab the best OL or DL on the board in round 1.
Depth at the position can evaporate very quickly though. Look at the DL this year. By the end of R1 most of the options had gone. That might happen at WR too.
And it’s not a good draft for DL. I can’t think of any realistic R1 DL targets for Seattle. And OL might be an option but it won’t be if they keep their guys together.
yeah I guess..i just feel like WR is always a position where you can find good talent..either thru the mid rounds of the draft or by vets getting cut loose for salary reasons. One of the huge benefits of having an elite qb is you can get by with just ok receivers..helps to have a true #1..but the rest are kind of fungible. Rodgers, Brady, RW etc..they don’t need great receivers..they need great OL’s and defenses. just my opinion..
IDK about that last phrase. Even Brady seems to be struggling as of late with his crop of average receivers.
And we also have to think if Lockett goes down for any extended period of time, the situation looks pretty dire for the passing game, as we were able to get a glimpse of with him limited these past couple weeks.
My tentative plan as of right now:
– Don’t fight the draft board: add a weapon for Russ in R1. (or early R2 if they trade down again)
– Add a pass rusher in FA
– Keep the OL together. Grab a developmental guy in the middle rounds who maybe falls due to injury.
– See if TB will bite on one of our R2 picks for OJ Howard and draft a developmental TE on day 3 (Jake Breeland or Noah Togiai could be the guy)
– Keep adding speed and youth to the defense.
With this being a draft site, and a football draft site in particular, I wonder how long this 3 year college rule will remain in effect? It’s almost like college football is an unpaid (excluding the idea of scholarships) minor league system for the NFL. I also get the idea that playing in college lets players bodies develop more for the rigors of the NFL. But isn’t this the only major team sport where a player has to go to college if he wants to play this sport in his country’s premier professional league? There’s something un-American about that to me. You know, freedom and liberty and our free enterprise and all that.
I would guess that the 3 year rule will be revisited some time in the future. Perhaps the NFL will expand it’s roster size more allowing for younger players to be drafted and developed at the professional level. I think this new rule of allowing players to earn money from the selling of their name and likenesses during college is another step in this direction. More changes are going to be coming to football in the future, methinks.
Could be wrong but I don’t think you have to go to college to play in the nfl. You can’t go straight out of high school, you have to wait three years. But there’s nothing stopping you from playing in the xfl or something
You might be right on that. But still, my point remains. This is the only major team sport where a player has to wait 3 years before he is allowed to play in his country’s premier professional league. Does anyone really doubt that had Trevor Lawrence wanted to turn pro after his freshman season he wouldn’t have been a first round draft pick? He may have been a top ten pick, or even higher. That could literally have cost him millions in earned income due to some un-American archaic rule.
I get your argument for sure. But it’s really rare for a kid right out of high school to bring much of anything to a pro sports league. You could theoretically go straight from high school to the MLB or the NHL. But it happens exceedingly rarely. Most draft picks in those leagues play in the minor leagues before going to the big show. They get paid, but not a lot. National exposure, weight training, conditioning, and a free education are probably more valuable all things considered.
As for the NBA, I’ll admit I don’t follow it since the Sonics left town. But last time I did, they also banned going straight from high school to the pros. There were some success stories before they did (KG, Kobe, Lebron), but a whole lot more failures. Kids just not being ready, being influenced by shady agents and hangers on to get immediate money at the expense of their long term well being (personal and financial).
I also remember a couple college football players suing to allow earlier entry. Maurice Clarett and Mike Williams both did so if I recall correctly. Neither one really lit the league on fire. Clarett totally flamed out and it took Williams a while to have much success.
In the NFL especially, I can see the justification for the rule. 18 year old men are still developing physically and the NFL is truly a grown man’s league full of physical freaks/BAMF’s. Most 18 or 19 year olds just can’t compete with that on the physical side. It’s also rare to have the mental toughness and maturity it takes to handle that kind of wealth at a young age. To have both is just really rare. I get your argument that this seems inconsistent with a truly free labor market. It’s patronizing to a degree. But ultimately I think it’s wise. If there’s a solution I think it’s fondont some way to give college football players a bigger slice of the obscene revenue they generate for their schools and for companies like espn.
I really can’t argue with most of what you said. Well thought out and expressed. Good stuff.
My argument, like you said, is largely based upon such rules being inconsistent with the free labor market. Archaic and overtly paternalistic in that way. I couldn’t help but musing about a young entrepreneur or entertainer or the like being told they couldn’t professionally practice their craft until they reached a certain age or attended college for a given amount of time. At least in baseball, soccer, hockey, etc… you have the option of competing and developing your talent within some kind of paid professional context, minor league or whatever. College football is kind of a pseudo or de facto minor league system for the NFL. Pretty exclusive in that way.
I still do think it’s unjustifiable for that rare talent to be denied the right to sell their talents in the marketplace, though I certainly understand that for most this would be an ill-advised move.
But what really seems unjustifiable to me is a student athlete not being allowed to legally make money in so many ways when they’re in college. What other students are held to such a standard? Obviously cheating and where to draw the line is the issue. But it seems like it’s moving in a little more sensible direction of late in this way.
Anyway, Good post.
The big obvious question is how much free agency will determine their draft? Are they gonna be a bpa draft room? Or a need based draft room? It’s not black and white… nothing is in the age of analytics…but what if the Hawks took their analytics and deconstructed them? Do we get another Trey flowers? Another penny? These are players that were drafted for unique undertakings…flowers switching to corner…penny one year of starter experience in a smaller conference. Free agency is limited in this approach…red Bryant is one example of this analytical deconstruction…I think the slow build of the pass rush drafting and developing green and now Collier spells the end of spending big money on the d-line…these are both players who can play inside and out… they’re not tweeners…but more like let’s have a few beers and then make a decision.
Awesome write-up Rob! The stats are so interesting this year. We’re making a habit out of living life on the edge points-wise. However, we’re showing we are capable of just about anything.
To me, it’s very telling that our only 2 losses are to the current AFC and NFC conference leaders. With the Hawks feeling like they’re continuing to improve every game (especially on defense.. also especially after Diggs signing) it feels as if the sky is the limit. We tend to make a few more mental and tackling mistakes than the Hawks of old, but we also play our style and impose it on others rather than adapt it to others like the Hawks of old. 10-2. Greatness is within reach. Let’s get it!
A crazy thought, but…I wonder what it would take to pry John Ross away from the Bengals if we can’t land one of the elites in the draft? He’s been injured his first two years and they’re rebuilding. He does have blinding speed and good hands and familiar to the area (former UW guy).
I like this thought. Inexpensive former 1st rounder who has speed for days. Nice upside play.
Admittedly, it’s a bit akin to buying a lottery ticket. I don’t know what Ross would cost us in terms of draft capital (would need Rob to weigh in on that, above my pay grade), but he would be on the 4th year of his rookie contract at about 5.4 million or so. That’s our total CAP hit. The next year we could decide if we want him for the 5th year. The option year. That team control thing. If he pans out, yes. If not, then no, and no CAP consequences beyond next year. Limited risk.
The upside is pretty clear. The guy ran the fastest combine in NFL history, I believe, He’s also got decent hands. And he’s broken in, more or less, even though he’s been injured. Think Lockett, DJ, Ross, Dissley, Hollister, possibly Josh Gordon and possibly a new rookie and possibly a new TE. WOW! Targets galore. Both the deep and shallow threat would be *GULP* mouth watering.
Of course this would all depend upon Ross’s health. Like I said, a one year lottery ticket that could pay off big.
Anyway…
Just for the record, they’d have to activate the 5th year option by early May 2020. Or put another way the only chance to evaluate him as a part of your team is in OTA’s probably. So slim to no chance they would commit to paying him $14m or so for 2020.
Thanks for that. I’m not a CAP expert. One question though. Where do you get that 14 million number? One a site I saw that his salary and CAP hit was in the mid 5 million area for 2020. What would be all the options given that they had to activate the option by early May 2020? Could they decline the option and just have him for one year, for instance? Other options?
Just asking.
No worries.
The $5m number for 2020 is set. But you have to activate the 5th year option for a first round pick for 2021 by (about) May of 2020. And that option is EXPENSIVE. This year’s option to activate by May 2019 for the 2020 season for the WR position was $14m. Probably a tad more for 2021 then.
Yes they can decline the option and only have him for 2020 and let him walk or decide to sign him for a much lower price after the 2020 season. And if he walks they net a comp pick if his contract with his new team warrants it.
Good stuff. My eyes often glaze over when I try to read and understand this kind of stuff. Not my strong suit. But you cleaned a few things up nicely for me. Thanks.
I have to say, given what you said about declining the option, that I still like my idea. LOL I would love another guy RW could go deep to, or hit on a slant with the threat his receiver is one missed tackle from big yardage. I still wonder what he may cost us in draft capital?
Anyway…thanks for that.
A guy worth “watching out for” in the upcoming Oklahoma vs: Baylor title game. The PFF quote is from
Tony Pauline’s site. Might be a Rd. 2/3 target for some team (Hawks?) needing an “interior disrupter”.
DT-James Lynch, Baylor, 6-4/295.
2019: 12-games, 34-tkls, 16-solo, 15.5-TFL, 10.5-sacks, 5-PBU, 12-QBH, 2-FF, 2-BK’s.
Career: 31-games, 89-tkls, 55-solo, 29.0-TFL, 17.0-sacks, 13-QBH, 7-PBU, 2-FR, 3-FF, 3-BK’s.
“”Per Pro Football Focus, James Lynch has *68* total pressures on the season, which ranks first in the country and is *17 more* than Iowa’s AJ Epenesa. He’s a menace for opposing offensive linemen to deal with due to his explosive quickness and power, 12/05/19.””
Love this kid, great motor. I’ll be interested to see his athletic testing numbers. In the tape I’ve watched of him, Baylor played him up and down the line all the way from nose tackle to a wide 9 split.
Fingers crossed Haskins has his coming out party and beats GB. Then if the saints beat the niners and we win we would have a 2 game lead on the division and a 1st round bye.
GB plays @Minnesota week 16.
If the 9ers lose to the saints and we win out but lose to the 9ers week 17, the tiebreaker would be strength of schedule LOL
So fitting for how the trash talk has been this year 😂
It would actually be strength of schedule among teams defeated, since both teams would have lost to the same teams, it would come down to the 2 uncommon games.
Seattle played Philly and Minnesota
San Francisco played Green Bay and Washington
So basically, if Philly and Minnesota total more wins than Green Bay and Washington this season, we would win the division in this scenario. It would be likely since Washington is bound to lose some more, and Philly is at least a lot better than Washington lol.
Man, that’s really getting into the weeds. LOL I’m starting to fall into that coaches “talking point” camp. Just win the next game and the next game and the next game. All I know right now is that if we win-out, we’re no worse than division champions and the #2 seed. That’s all that makes sense to me now. LOL
Its a very likely outcome.
Sorry to be so negative… but…. Dallas is a dumpsterfire.
They’ve got a serious leadership and conviction problem. The underachievement of this team is *ahem* noteworthy.
I’m pretty much calling my shot, Garrett might not make it back as HC.
What was crazy, all 3 aspects of the team looked terrible today. Offense, Defense and ST.
I could see JJ swinging the AXE, which is completely justified after 2 weeks of a team looking terrible and uninspired. Everything was on the line in both games and to roll out these clunkers… WOW. And having lost 3 in a row, when they could have strangle-hold on the NFCE… another WOWZA.
Friend of mine, who is a Cows fan, is ready to throw in the towel on the season. He is totally disgusted with the underachieving team.
I hope they continue to overvalue (and pay) Dak Prescott and under utilize Elliott.
How? Seahawks have played a much tougher schedule and have a huge lead over Dallas in Turnover Differential.
Is it all just coaching? Not necessarily. But I think all can agree that Dallas is definitely a talented team that is underachieving.
Also Dallas has played one more game than the Hawks at this point in the calendar.
The cowboys have beat up on terrible teams. They are +74 against the NFC east and +25 against the dolphins. Point differential can be misleading. And total yards don’t mean anything
Those numbers make them appear better than they are which makes us think they are underachieving. They beat teams under 500 and loose to those over 500. They are neither underachieving or overachieving.
If you’re a Bear’s fan, you’ve got to be happy. According to analytics, their playoff chances increased from 1% to 2%.
Next up (I believe) Packers, Lions and Vikings. You’re welcome. ~ NFL Schedule Desk.
LOL Lions beware.
If you are a Bears fan, you will root for the Hawks to shave the Rams and raise that percentage to 10%.
Let’s hope Dallas signs Prescott to a big contract so they can remain underachieving for years to come.
I’ve seen a lot of articles about how and why the Seattle defense has improved. One thing that seems to get overlooked is about how some of the Seahawk draft picks have stepped up. I would say that Jarran Reed has been a major cause of the D-Line improvement. His pressure up the middle has been remarkable, which takes attention off of Clowney. Another one is Rasheem Green. He is starting to look like he belongs on the D-Line. Both Flowers and Griffin have taken great strides at corner this year. It seems that Marquise Blair looks like a future star, and I’m hopeful for Collier as well.
Tremendous on just about every level.
😂😭😂
https://twitter.com/i/status/1202581788108963841
The Trey Watts comment is fricking hilarious.
We need more “russ” baby yoda as well.
Sure, he could price himself out of town if he asks for elite 3T money, but I think we underestimate how much the Hawks like Jarran Reed. I’d bet anything we hear PC call him a “core player” on our team.
I think his impact since he has been back and got a game or two under his belt has been noticeable.
Let’s hope.
With (4) games remaining, it’s hard to imagine them going .500 in those games. That would probably be the their floor, as far as wins are concerned. Going 3-1 is a great possibility. If they go 6-0 against their division, they would no doubt exceed all expectations and confirm their SB aspirations.
Those in the locker room believe in those aspirations, they’re “All In” in that goal. True, many good teams share those same thoughts. But, what makes the Hawks a very viable possibility is their leadership. Russ & BWag and the coaching staff are factors that may push them further than one might expect. This weekend will go a long way in showing if their goals do come to fruition.
Regardless of the outcome, PC & JS & company have done a marvelous job in assembling this group. And I honestly believe that they like what they have, and would like for it to keep going, on into the 2020 season. I wouldn’t be surprised if they prioritize keeping their own FAs, prior to venturing outside to build upon this group. That would include Ansah, Reed, Clowney, Jefferson & Woods.
They have invested more than just time and money on these guys. These have developed relationships within the organization, within the locker room, that all are happy of what they have, and wouldn’t want to play, or be, anywhere else.
Ansah has been put under a lot of scrutiny due to his development to this point of the season. As mentioned earlier, the season is not over yet. The last few games have shown marked improvement in his play. He’s getting stronger as the season goes on. This Sunday will show if there is a setback, or not. With an off season of training, rather than rehab, it’s hard not to be enthused about what possibilities lay ahead for the 2020 season.
The acquisitions of Clowney(26Yrs) & Ansah(30yrs) are similar to that of Avril(27yrs) & Bennett(28yrs), in terms of impact upon the DL. Resigning both is a real possibility with what the market could offer both players coming of injuries. The Staff is well aware of these, and both players are very comfortable with where they are at this point of their careers. They’re “All In.”
That Dallas defense certainly looked a lot different without Vander Esch last night.
One nice thing about the Saints/49ers game is that we win either way, at least until our game is played. Saints win and it gives us a one game buffer in the race for the division crown. Saints lose we control our own destiny for the #1 seed. Fun weekend for football either way, along with Oregon/Utah, LSU/Georgia, and Oklahoma/Baylor games. A decent weekend to scout out the talent.
I think I would prefer an SF win. That way if we play them for all the marbles (Divisions and #1 seed ) assuming both teams win out of course, which is certainly not a given.
I prefer some breathing room in NFCW. Thought process here:
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/instant-reaction-seahawks-beat-vikings-win-another-thriller#comment-461830
More stats in favor of rooting for the Saints:
I think the idea of preferring the 49ers to beat the Saints is the the “alpha” preference, for lack of a better way of putting it. It’s kind of the no-fear-we’re-the-badass-bring-it-on attitude that you might think a SB contender should have.
Not saying this is right or not overly brazen, but it’s a way of looking at it.
I want to see two teams at 13 and 2 for that final game of the season.
Really looking forward to this weekend too.
Also, Ravens @ Bills and KC @ NE
Yeah, those are interesting games too. KC could be a team that no one wants to play for the obvious reason.
Would love to see a KC /Bal playofff game.
Would love to see a KC vs Bal playoff game.
Pretty amazing stat for a team that is 10-2. Conventional thinking is you need to be able to rush the passer and protect your QB to win in the NFL. How can this be right?
Seahawks are 30th in pressure rate allowed on offense and 31st in pressure rate created on defense.
The whole is greater than the sum of its parts. And greater than the stats used by gamblers, fantasy football players and quants with agendas. (For the latter see FG) This is the era of big data, and though statistical analyses are critical to understanding the game, in isolation stats can’t explain the whole. But I’m old school, still think score at the end of the game and place in standings matter most. Plus I just like to watch football games. Me and Chauncey Gardiner.
How about “run the ball” (Seahawks 3rd in yards/gm) and “stop the run” (Seahawks 8th)?
Answer to that: RW, both positively and negatively.
Positively: He thrives on improvisation. No one in the NFL better.
Negatively: Pressure is not a solid stat, it’s more subjective. RW probably “creates” what trackers call pressure more than any NFL QB. But is it always real and true pressure? Probably not.
I don’t have a great answer. But if the way Minnesota called their game offensively is any indication, they definitely game planned for pressure. The number of screens they threw was absurd. And the Hawks still had a good game pressuring Cousins.
Late to the party as usual but it would be interesting to see the pressure and turnover stats by 4 game intervals or something. We have been playing so hot since the niner game i bet Clowney, Ansah, Reed and maybe Green or Jefferson would be higher up on the list. Peaking at the right time.
Yeah, this was my thought as well. Like a rolling 4 game ranking or something. I realize that’s a huge amount of work and so not totally plausible, but it would be interesting to see to see trends and progression.
I’d actually be curious to see that same approach to look back at historical in-season trends, especially given the truism about the Seahawks always peaking late, building towards the finish, etc, especially as has been countered by Rob’s reminders that that’s no guarantee and we’ve actually stumbled down the stretch a couple of times over the last few years.
Everett had 136 yds against us last time and Clowney lines up a lot against the RT…
Talkin’ to myself here, but PC just said in presser to expect more nickel, especially after the Rams just threw for 400+ yds last week.
Thanks SM.
Will be interesting. The key is still stopping the Gurley/the run, so the mix of Barton and Nickel will be interesting to monitor.
As for nickel – Ugo time? Or more Akeem King? Or maybe Diggs/Blair combo platter?
PC was asked about this. Of course, he didn’t give anything away. King has been the guy as of late, but PC just confirmed: yeah, we have options.
Dang. Core special teamer. Good thing Ugo, Homer and Barton have been playing key roles in ST’s.
Depth at corner is scary thin.
“Core special teamer.”
No pun intended, I’m sure 😉
Hunter Bryant declares for the draft.
In honor of the PAC 12 championship game
Bradley Anae / DE / UTAH
Leki Fotu / DT / UTAH
Both guys are ranked in the 3rd/4th round range… and Seattle has scouted UTAH every year since… forever. One would fit the DE/OLB type with some quickness and speed and the other (DT) would be more of a clog the middle of the field up on rushing downs.
Not perfect prospects, but could fill in roles that might need some fortifying, depending on how FA breaks out. The DE spot might be full up if they do retain Ansah and Clowney, but right now I’m not sure how much they are willing to commit to that position of DE. The two guys combined might reasonably set you back 28-30M per year. This also doesn’t include how they would fit Reed in at DT… which might run 8-10M+ / year. JS DO YOUR MAGIC!
I’m honestly so glad the girl throwing overhand won the halftime scholarship challenge
Haha, saw that from Nagy.
RB Moss for UTAH has been impressive
but
DE Thibodeaux for the OREGON squad keeps jumping off of the screen.
Even though he is Freshman, keep an eye on him in 2 more years.. draft time.
Oregon could have back to back #1 overall picks. Top 5 at least. Penei Sewell 2021 and ‘Thibs’ 2022.
You guys are right. These guys are the real deal. I wanted them as Huskies, but Oregon got them over us. At times, Thibodeaux looks like Chase Young, doesn’t he? And I truly think that Sewell might be a 1st round pick next spring if he was allowed to come out.
My partner is an Oklahoma girl so I had to be an Oregon fan for one night. I feel dirty. I can now resume detesting them. Thank heaven.
Oklahoma wins and their in.
* they’re
If Georgia beats LSU, are they both in?
Yes
Absolutely.
I’m taking Georgia, today.
WhAt iF UtAh MaKeS tHe PlAyOfFs? 😂😂
Say it with me. Will 👏never👏happen👏
If they ever get more than a handful of 4 star recruits watch out!
Utah is always a good team and a tough out. I don’t mean they’ll never make a playoff. Was never happening this year though.
First time we’ve been right in 2 years.
lmao. At least.
Was waiting for your comment.
Like a broken clock.
Utah didn’t beat a ranked team all season…still. I detest Oregon but they looked loads better than Utah tonight.
Gotta send the message from the get-go that we’re not going to let them run. Make Goff beat us.
Interesting
“Seattle has played the fewest snaps with five or more defensive backs this year at 242, per ESPN charting. The next fewest: 468.” ~ B Henderson ESPN
Crazy that they’ve played twice as less as the next closest team. What team has played the 468 snaps anyways?
Speaks to how athletic Kendricks is I think.
Man oh man, Lamb is electric. Definitely a top 10-15 pick.
It will depend how he tests. He didn’t test well at SPARQ. He’s very good with YAC and extremely talented but for the next level athletic upside matters massively.
I’m not that infatuated with him.
In a copycat league my hope is that a team doesn’t take Jalen Hurts and try and replicate what Baltimore is doing with Lamar Jackson. He is NOT an NFL QB.
Agreed
Eh. That’s been said about virtually every QB Prospect ever.
Some succeed, others don’t.
I for one hope he gets a shot somewhere. I think he’s earned that.
He can be a great person, a dominant college QB, and not an NFL caliber QB. All these thing can be true. I’d be willing to bet all 3 are facts.
Here’s an interesting article that highlights some of the things discussed here about the Seahawks. Are they efficient? Lucky? Make the game close no matter what? Like all things probably a little of each but the eye test tells me they were a little lucky/fluky early in the season, but have been getting better every week and have found effective and sustainable elements on offense and defense.
http://www.footballperspective.com/the-2019-seahawks-are-very-efficient-at-their-distribution-of-points-across-games/
Trying to watch 2 different games here. Baylor/Oklahoma on t.v. and finishing the Utah/Oregon game from last night.
Can’t decide if Oregon HB CJ Verdell is the real deal and was just being overlooked playing in the PNW or if that Oregon O-line was solely responsible for manhandling the top ranked D and #1 run defense.
Maybe both?
He runs hard, has some juice, not convinced he’s an NFL back.
What a game that Verdell had last night. No idea where he’d go in the draft, though.
Hang in there LSU. I’d like to see Oklahoma and at least 4 of the power 5 conferences represented in the CFP.
Baylor’s defense was more impressive this year than I ever expected them to be. I never really focused upon any particular talent that helped them in that way. They seem like they’ve got a few NFL talents on that line somewhere, like a few have mentioned around here.
Burrow is just a smart and savvy QB. He just keeps showing that.
It feels like they’ve been playing this SEC game forever. Boring.
When LSU is on offense I’ve just been watching the ball and Burrow. When Georgia is on offense I’ve been watching the Georgia Tackles and Chaisson. I’m entertained but my girlfriend can’t figure out why.
Chaisson (big game from him) just cleanly beat Thomas around the corner on a speed rush but both those tackles are legit. Wilson would be an ideal replacement for Ifedi.
Chaisson is going to be a big riser this draft season.
Burrow must have heard you, cause that last play – anything but boring! Russell-esque.
OMG that play by Joe Burrow. Just give the man the trophy and 1st pick already. Escapes the pocket then passes it down field, Russell Wilson type play.
Massive performance from Burrow today. Hard to poke holes in his game
Heads up on Seahawks draft blog favorite Trysten Hill
He’s gotten more snaps recently for Dallas’s #11 ranked defense in scoring
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HillTr00.htm
For reference SEA’s #23 ranked defense in scoring rookie LJ Collier
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CollLJ00.htm
It looks like he’s been getting less snaps each week (and wasn’t active for five weeks)? He’s also been caught sleeping during a team meeting, and sent home from practice for being late.
Wow. What a performance. When was the last time Georgia has been so thoroughly dominated?
What’s really interesting about this year’s CFP is that there are THREE absolute uber-teams in LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson. I mean three number one seed teams. It’s splitting hairs under a microscope to find the best of the three on paper. You’d probably give the tiniest edge to LSU the way that Burrow is playing, but OSU is probably the most balanced team, and Clemson is the defending national champion with the top QB prospect in the nation next year, tons of weapons, and a very good D.
The #2 vs. #3 seed game is going to be epic in itself.
LSU OT Saahdiq Charles (6’4, 295 lbs.) is excellent. Obviously doesn’t have great size or any outstanding traits. Very solid and balanced game.
Has been nothing short of instrumental as a part of Joe Burrows development.
He’s inconsistent, but man there’s so much untapped potential and alot to work with in Georgia DT Tyler Clark.
Would not be shocked if Seattle likes him. Could be a mid round gem. Same with Auburn’s Nick Coe.
100%
I feel like we’re going to find “our guy” at DE, either in the draft or FA. In the draft that might mean waiting til round 3. Maybe we trade for a DE? We still have a load since we didn’t give up much for Clowney.
If we draft DL early I think it will be DT.
I agree: We will either draft, sign or trade for a DE.
I mean, even if they sign a FA or trade for a DE that doesn’t exclude them from drafting one. Just means it probably lessems the odds that they take one early.
Would be very surprised if Seattle doesn’t draft 2 D-lineman regardless of what happens in FA
Burrow made himself some money today.
Credit to Rob. He did have this guy #1 very early in the season.
And last year Rob was one of the earliest to tab Kyler Murray as the best qb and first player to be drafted.
You’re right. Before I was a poster I was a reader. He definitely was way ahead of the curve on Muray too.
I dunno. The way I remember it, Rob wasn’t sold on Burrow until around midseason. Maybe I’m wrong, but either way it doesn’t affect the credit to Rob, which is richly deserved.
Rob was not yet ready to anoint him, until after a season worth of play.
His play has exceeded any realistic pre-season prediction.
I wonder if the team around him, tons of talent, might be making him look better than he really is…. with that being said, the Bengals need to draft the kid. He is from Ohio and it would be a prenominal coming home story… and help a woebegone franchise. Talk about heating up the Browns/Bengals rivalry… wowza. (Bengals should trade Dalton for whatever they can get, time for a change.)
After the Texas game I wrote about Burrow looking sensational. Indeed it was about mid-college season that we started talking about him as a potential #1. Which, in fairness, was a realistic timeline for a player who has taken a major leap forward this year.
There are three ‘one hit wonder’ players over the last 11 years that I think we’ve been ahead of the curve on — Cam Newton, Kyler Murray and Burrow. I was slow to the party on RGIII though.
I wonder how prickly Wisconsin is going to be against Ohio State tonight?
OSU is getting smacked in the mouth
OMG! We’ve got a serious upset possibility here now.
Incredible. If WIS scores on this drive I like their chances at pulling it off for sure.
Rather prickly apparently.
Damn I dream of Taylor in a Seahawks uniform. Zack Baun looks like a good LEO prospect.
Baun is very, very intriguing.
Does Baun have the length?
Jonathan Taylor and Cee Dee lamb are my favorite “touchdown makers” amongst a loaded group of offensive skill position players. They’re the cream of the crop IMO with Shenault coming in third (not just because of the crazy counting stats). I don’t need to wait till the combine to see how they test, these guys gave obvious traits (size, speed, toughness) that translate to the next level. Stoked that the hawks have 3 top 100 picks in this draft class.
Will Taylor go 2nd or 3rd round, if he declares for the draft? Seahawks will probably be looking for 1 more RB via FA or draft in the spring.
I think he’s a top-50 pick and I doubt very much SEA would spend anything higher than a Day 3 pick at RB this year, so not likely to happen.
Meanwhile Dobbins is a great looking RB too. It’s a pretty strong draft class at RB.
The Clemson kid looks like he is putting on a show as well.. Etieene. He is a Jr that is 5’10 210 or so…. could be intriguing.
Taylor with a nasty stiffarm!
Is Ohio St corner Shaun Wade not healthy or something? Cephus is giving him all the smoke.
Cephus is the real deal…just a junior I think..definitely on the radar for next years draft
Ohio St defense just played its worst half of football all year. It’s also the first half they’ve played without Okudah on the field (I think).
Are we witnessing how good a defender Jeffrey Okudah is and how important he really is to the OSU defense?
4 team playoff will be: LSU, CLEMSON, OHST (W or L), OKLAHOMA
??
I don’t know.. If Ohio State loses I don’t think you can reasonably put them in the playoff. Otherwise you could be setting a precedent for the #1 team to essentially take a week off, play their backups, forfeit the game, etc.
If Wisconsin wins I think they’d have to be in – with Georgia, Utah, and Baylor losses they’d be moving up to 5 in theory outside of the result of their current game. If you don’t move them up to 4 after beating the number one team, it pretty much validates the argument that the Big 10 conference championship was absolutely meaningless.
Ohio St should 100% be in regardless. All their non-conference opponets were conference champions except for Cincinnati. Sounds more impressive than it is, but the playoff comittee eats that s**t up.
I mean, maybe, but at the same time those are conference champs from non-P5 conferences. Would that count more than them having a loss against the champion of their own conference (though they would be breakeven at 1-1 on the season against each other)?
But obviously Ohio St. looks like they’re mounting a comeback so this may ultimately be pointless to even wonder about.
I think that and the fact they have 5 wins (most in the country) against ranked opponents would of been the determining factor
Wisconsin: I ain’t gonna lie, we had ’em in the 1st half
KJ Hill passing David Boston (surprised it wasn’t Terry Glenn) and HOF’er Cris Carter on the all-time receptions list is quite the accomplishment.
Massively underrated.
Yup. Been waiting for him to come out. Would look great in a hawks uni.
Not a one arm tackle from Chase Young on Jonathan Taylor, a one HAND tackle. lol. Insane.
Oregon vs Wisconsin should be an exciting Rose bowl. Same with Penn St vs Memphis in the Cotton bowl.
Wow. I knew Ohio State was going to come at Wisconsin hard in the second half, but I had hoped that the momentum wouldn’t be 100% percent in their favor in this way. Wisconsin just couldn’t wrestle it back. That 3rd down and 18 first down that Ohio State converted was like the death knell, their best chance to try to get the momentum back, even more than that missed FG.
Well it sure looks like LSU vs Oklahoma and Ohio State vs Clemson now.
Hoping for a LSU/Ohio St championship game because that could be a classic.
UNIFORM – SNF
White Jersey / Blue Pants
WOOOOOO
This was interesting to watch….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReKqMCbwvMY
PFFs Mock Draft v3
I haven’t seen this one but PFF’s draft coverage on YT the last few weeks has been truly bizarre.