With the Senior Bowl in the books there’s really only one topic in town as we build up to the combine. What is going to happen with Geno Smith? This is the next domino to fall, before attentions turn to other matters such as fixing the offensive line in free agency and/or the draft.

The situation feels pretty straight forward. Here’s a quick summary. The Seahawks will want to lower his $44.5m cap hit. The best way to do this is via an extension. However, they won’t want to commit significant guarantees over multiple years and they’ll likely want to retain an annual ‘out’ in the deal.

From Smith’s side, he’ll likely see this as his last serious opportunity to get a big pay day. He turns 35 in October. It’s been reported by Albert Breer that he’s seeking a commitment from the team. The two positions contradict each other, so the question is whether a compromise exists.

ESPN’s Brady Henderson noted last week that Smith, “is seeking an extension” and “it’s not a given that the two sides will be able to agree to one.”

I suspect by now both parties have shared thoughts on what they want to happen. My reading of the situation, based on those words by Brady (and others), is that at the moment there might be distance between the two sides.

Pete Carroll’s appointment in Las Vegas adds a layer of intrigue. The Raiders need a plan at quarterback, beyond simply hoping one of Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders is available for them at #6 (a reach, all considered). Carroll has not been appointed to lead a 10-year rebuild. He’s 74 in September. There will be a keenness to compete quickly and that will require the addition of a veteran quarterback of a certain standard. Success in Vegas isn’t winning the Super Bowl, it’s returning to respectability. Over the next couple of seasons the kind of nine-win season Carroll and Smith produced together in Seattle would be welcome as the Raiders try to climb back to a competitive standard.

Trading for Smith or trying to sign Sam Darnold are the two main options, you would imagine, for Vegas. There will likely be a lot of competition for Darnold, who might prefer to go somewhere where the scheme is similar to what he’s just experienced in Minnesota. I still wonder, for example, whether the Rams might trade Matt Stafford and attempt to bring Darnold back to LA.

With $85.7m in effective cap space available, the Raiders can easily afford to add Smith if they wanted to and pay him more than the Seahawks are probably willing. Carroll really bonded with Geno in Seattle. If Smith feels there is an alternative option out there, it could impact negotiations with the Seahawks.

However, I also think Carroll’s situation in Vegas is very different to the one he had in Seattle. The appointment today of Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator does not feel like one inspired or led by Carroll. Darrell Bevell had been heavily linked to the job. Instead, the Raiders have appointed someone who is well known to be very close to Bill Belichick and therefore, presumably, Tom Brady. Along with Patrick Graham staying as defensive coordinator, it feels like Carroll is having a staff built for him, rather than pulling the strings himself. That might mean any decision about who quarterbacks the Raiders is ultimately out of his hands. He might want Geno. Do Tom Brady and John Spytek want Geno, though?

There may be a broader market for Smith than the last two off-seasons (where he was a free agent in 2023 and appeared to at least be dangled via trade a year ago). It’s not just the Raiders. So many teams need a quarterback and there are so few options. The Browns, Giants, Jets and Titans are realistically in the market. The Saints could be too, with increasing chatter they might try and come to an agreement with Derek Carr to part.

This could impact things in two different ways:

1. How badly do the Seahawks want to add their name to this list? The minute you trade Smith away, you’re suddenly in a big competition with several others for the scraps remaining. Do you want to enter a bidding war for Darnold or Carr?

2. How willing is Smith to compromise if he thinks there’s more money and commitment to be had elsewhere? If he can get a three-year deal with $50m in guarantees like Baker Mayfield, compared to a year-to-year situation in Seattle, he might push for that option. Especially if it’s with a familiar face in Vegas.

I’m fascinated to see how this plays out. The Seahawks essentially find themselves in a tricky spot — not necessarily wanting to waltz into the quarterback market but also wanting to retain their veteran bridge on a deal that provides flexibility. They have ways to create cap space but their most effective way will be to reduce the cap hits of Smith and DK Metcalf via extensions. Without pulling those levers, they won’t be able to have the kind of off-season they’d ideally like to have. That doesn’t mean landing Trey Smith either which, I have to say, appears to be a bit of a pipe dream if he even reaches the market. Yet there are other talented players set to reach free agency who can really bolster the roster, not just on the offensive line either. They need to create some flexibility.

Equally, I imagine Smith would rather crack on and stay in Seattle — but if there are better financial offers and greater security to be had elsewhere, he has to consider those options.

My best guess, which I reserve the right to change, is that a compromise will be agreed upon. Both sides will have to give a little ground to get there but ultimately, they will find a way to get it done. I think other teams like the Raiders will be interested but probably only in a similar arrangement to the one the Seahawks seek. I don’t think any team will be rushing to commit to three years of Smith given his age. Thus, a year-to-year arrangement with some financial benefit, while lowering his cap-hit and retaining an annual out, will be achieved.

I do think the Seahawks will be very prepared to move on if they need to. They’ve done it with Matt Hasselbeck and Russell Wilson. They’ll do it with Geno Smith if their hand is forced.

If they do retain Smith on a new deal, the attention then turns to two subsequent topics. Firstly, their ability to improve the offensive line. They have a realistic opportunity to do this as outlined in my recent three-round mock draft (click here to read it). Secondly, who might the Seahawks target in the draft to add a young quarterback to develop behind Smith?

Despite what some people might say, I think it’s obviously true that the Seahawks and John Schneider have been desperate to draft a quarterback since trading Russell Wilson in 2022. There’s a difference, though, between intention and opportunity. The intention has been there, the opportunity hasn’t.

They haven’t passed on anyone in the last three drafts worth having. The people who moan about Seattle’s lack of drafting a quarterback are as tiresome as the people who go over the top about Geno Smith’s qualities.

If it was as simple as ‘just drafting a quarterback’ and everything being fine, the Chicago Bears wouldn’t have gone decades without a franchise signal caller. It’s why Sean McVay, for all his qualities, had to trade for Stafford and hasn’t drafted a young replacement. Kyle Shanahan traded away an absolute haul chasing the dream with Trey Lance. This isn’t easy. Just drafting players for the sake of it isn’t the answer.

Schneider has also actively tried to find solutions, just in other ways. Drew Lock and Sam Howell haven’t been very good additions. Those two players, though, were arguably superior to any of the rookies available to Seattle. It’s wrong to suggest they’ve been inactive because they’ve had a young alternative to Smith on the roster every season since trading Wilson, they just haven’t been rookies taken in the draft.

The complaints over Schneider’s time in Seattle should be reserved for Seattle’s inability to draft and develop a quality offensive line — and even then a decent chunk of the responsibility there lies with the coaches. The quarterback position is a different kettle of fish. Schneider is responsible for discovering the greatest quarterback in franchise history, the one that helped the Seahawks win a Super Bowl. Yes, he’ll be judged on whether he found another great quarterback whenever the next era of Seahawks football (the one immediately following Carroll’s departure) concludes. Yet patience, judgement, opportunism and luck will determine his ability to succeed and none of these things are just going to fall into place because fans want them to.

Will the 2025 quarterback draft class provide a solution? In all honesty, you can make a case for passing on the group again this year. However, there are three players who could at least carry some intrigue.

I don’t think Jaxson Dart is one of those three players.

I was surprised by all of the buzz and hype coming out of the Senior Bowl for Dart. I’ve been able to piece together footage from the NFL Network and YouTube to see most of Dart’s work in Mobile. I thought he looked unspectacular. That includes in the game itself where he failed to shine.

I ended up re-watching two game tapes to see if I’d missed something in evaluating Dart, given all of the first round chatter in Mobile. I came away more convinced it’s just the work of a particularly active agency, or a collection of league sources trying to misdirect. Dart has some intriguing qualities — including a pretty deep throw delivered with touch and surprising athleticism. Even so, his eyes drop too early under pressure. He’s not a dynamic enough runner to set off as often as he does. When the pressure is on you do see some mental errors and mistakes. He also didn’t deliver in key moments — failing to put Ole Miss in position to escape against Kentucky with the ball in his hands (the end of that game is fairly brutal, including a wretched sack conceded) and throwing two critical fourth quarter interceptions against Florida, in a second half where he produced nothing, to end any hopes of reaching the college football playoff.

To me he reminds me of a Jarrett Stidham type player. There are things that make you relatively intrigued to a point, it’s just hard to imagine him becoming a top-end starter. I’ll be very surprised if the Seahawks view him as someone they see as the long-term answer. After waiting so long to draft a replacement for Wilson, I can’t imagine they’ll use a first or second round pick on Dart.

In the Senior Bowl game itself the best quarterback on display was Seth Henigan. He struggled on the first day of practise but in game action, he played a lot better than the rest in my personal opinion. I think he’s a worthy late round flier for someone but he, again, isn’t one of the three quarterbacks I’m going to talk about for the Seahawks.

Firstly, let’s look at Schneider’s history. We know he is attracted to big, physical quarterbacks with a gunslinger mentality. A degree of mobility/escapability is also crucial. Charlie Whitehurst, Russell Wilson and Drew Lock all had these characteristics. Even though Wilson was smaller, he played to this style and had huge hands, a big arm and he could move around. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, two other players Schneider had his eye on, also fit the bill. Sam Howell isn’t a big, physical quarterback but he is a scrambler with an arm.

I think he’s looking for someone who can be his answer to Brett Favre — but that doesn’t mean he’s going to wait forever for the next Favre or Mahomes to arrive. The Whitehurst trade was aggressive and expensive and yet he was clearly not very good. Schneider talked up Lock a lot. We also know, by now, that he too isn’t of sufficient starting quality. Neither is Howell. The Seahawks are clearly willing to take shots on players with a base level of upside, in the hope they can be developed into more. They don’t need to see a 10/10 player to take a chance.

Firstly, the two quarterbacks from the National Championship — Will Howard and Riley Leonard.

Howard is listed at 6-4 and 235lbs. He is big, strong, mobile enough to be a benefit in short-yardage running situations and he can break off opportunistic runs. He has a decent arm. Purely based on physical qualities, he looks like a Schneider type of quarterback.

Leonard is a lot leaner at 6-3 and 210lbs. He doesn’t have the biggest hands — measuring at 9 1/4 inches at the Senior Bowl. He doesn’t have a cannon for an arm but there are some examples of touch passes beyond 45-yards downfield. As a runner, he is a net positive. He is very capable of breaking off big runs when he sees a crease and he’s an excellent athlete.

There are other qualities to consider. They are both very experienced. Howard has 50 college starts, Leonard has 43. That counts for something. They’ve both achieved a degree of success. Howard worked with a loaded roster at Ohio State and had a fairly disappointing regular season. Nevertheless, he played brilliantly during the playoffs and led his team to the National Championship. Very little was expected of Notre Dame in the playoffs given their injury situation, however Leonard helped inspire an improbable run to the final.

Character is a big deal for the Seahawks and has been a major focus of their last three drafts. Both quarterbacks excel in this area. Leonard is a self-confessed introvert so it’ll be interesting to see how teams view that — but he’s shown at Duke and Notre Dame that he can lead an offense without a loaded supporting cast. Howard almost has a Philip Rivers-esque fire to him on the sidelines and he appears to be a good team-mate who is well respected. You are not going to have to worry about either of these players from a character perspective.

Howard also has a similar arc to Russell Wilson. Both players were effectively shuffled out the door for younger replacements (Mike Glennon at NC State, Avery Johnson at Kansas State). Both went to the BIG-10 and enjoyed success with their new teams, elevating their stock. Wilson had far more upside and special qualities to his game but their journeys are similar.

Can I envisage Schneider investing in either to sit behind Geno Smith? Yes. It’s very hard to work out what range they could go in. You could probably project anywhere between pick #50 and #100. The Seahawks pick twice in that range.

I’m not convinced that either will turn into legit starters in the NFL, just like most of us were never convinced by Lock or Howell. Howard had some great moments in the playoffs but at both Ohio State and Kansas State he’s had his fair share of ‘what the hell were you thinking?’ moments. He had 20 interceptions in 28 games in 2023 and 2024. He fumbled the ball eight times in 2024 alone. The best you can probably hope for is that he’ll develop into an effective point guard, complementing a strong running game with his arm and legs. Even then, he’ll likely have a tendency to do something slightly ridiculous. That’s part of his game.

With Leonard, he has 14 interceptions in his last two full seasons of college football combined. His upside as a runner is a big positive and he’s really opportunistic with it. Opponents will have to caution against that aspect of his game. Yet as a passer, there are just too many moments where his accuracy was ‘off’ or he made big mistakes. He can make receivers work for the ball. The flashes make for a good highlights video but it’s hard to watch him and feel confident he’ll amount to a plus pocket passer, capable of delivering on key 3rd and 7+ plays with the game on the line — unless he can use his legs to create.

I think both players are more likely to be Drew Lock than a top-15 NFL starter. Yet the Seahawks saw something in Lock and they might see something in Howard and Leonard. Again, I don’t think it’s lip-service when Schneider says he wants to draft a quarterback every year. I do think that will be their intention until they find the next guy. If they bring back Geno Smith on a new contract, there will be increasing pressure to add a young passer. They know that kicking the can down the road continuously, without any remote hope that a younger, better option can emerge, does as much as anything to limit excitement and buzz around a franchise. Plus, with every passing year that goes by, the clock ticks on Smith’s effectiveness to be an acceptable bridge due to his age.

Howard and Leonard are both the types of player Schneider has added in the past, so they are both names to watch here. More so, I think, than Dart.

The other name I’m going to mention is predictable and someone I talk about a lot. Quinn Ewers. I continue to think he is someone Schneider has had his eye on for a while. The big question is whether he thinks Ewers is someone with the upside and potential to warrant following through with whatever initial interest he might’ve had when he started his college career.

Watching the Senior Bowl practises was helpful to try and explain why Ewers carries a level of intrigue — especially because most of the internet has already decided he sucks and has no appeal at all. When the quarterbacks in Mobile wanted to put a bit extra on a throw, either on an intermediate or deep level, it was noticeable how their technique adjusted. There was more effort on display, the footwork or body shape was different.

Ewers has easy arm strength. The ball just pops out of his hand. None of the quarterbacks in Mobile have this quality and truth be told, few do. It is a natural gift. I appreciate with Ewers it hasn’t always been effective over the last two seasons but it is part of assessing his draft profile.

This is the throw I keep coming back to. The three best throws I’ve seen in college football since starting this blog in 2008 are by Lamar Jackson at Louisville, Kyler Murray at Oklahoma and Ewers here against Alabama:

First of all, look at the technique. He doesn’t even step into this throw. He can deliver this kind of velocity, loft and distance from a standing position at midfield, and hit Xavier Worthy — who ran a 4.21 at the combine — in perfect stride for a touchdown. It is an absolutely majestic throw of a world class standard.

I guarantee that for all the complaints about Ewers — and I’ll discuss them again in a moment — some GM’s will look at that throw and think, ‘this guy has something’.

We’re talking about a player who the league has been buzzing about since High School. From his exceptional recruiting grades, out-ranking Caleb Williams, to his arrival at Texas via Ohio State. He is someone the league has been monitoring for a long time because of his natural talent.

People view his career as a failure at Texas. I wouldn’t be so sure about that. We’ll see how Arch Manning gets on next season but I wouldn’t assume he’ll do better. The Longhorns hadn’t been good for a long time, to the point that ‘Texas’ back’ became a meme whenever they won a couple of games to start a season. Getting to back-to-back semi-finals — and playing close games against Washington and Ohio State — shouldn’t be dismissed.

I thought he started the 2024 season brilliantly, in particular at Michigan. The abdominal strain and ankle injuries suffered cratered his form. It was clear how much his velocity, mobility and accuracy left him. He also began having to play without both starting tackles and his second best receiver. To be fair, Texas still only lost three games — two to Georgia and one to Ohio State.

The concerns are well advertised. He hasn’t been able to complete a full season in college without being injured. His consistency has suffered as a consequence. He’s thrown 18 interceptions in 26 games in the last two seasons. He also looks small and it’ll be interesting to discover his true measurements at the combine.

Even accounting for the injuries, it has been hard to watch him in the second half of his final season at Texas and picture a NFL starting quarterback. Yet this is the world the Seahawks live in now. The next Jayden Daniels isn’t likely to fall into their lap. They need to go and find the next Wilson, the next Jalen Hurts. Someone who lasts in the draft for a reason yet has a characteristic or two that can be harnessed, within a well structured overall team, to produce results over an extended period of time without being the perfect prospect.

I also think the system matters. I’ve long thought the Shanahan offense would be best for Ewers. It can scheme around limitations while highlighting positives, emphasising reading your keys and executing within structure. That is how Ewers can thrive, I think. You don’t want to have him trying to move around, improvising, playing off platform. He needs rigidity and rhythm. The Shanahan scheme delivers that and if Klint Kubiak can bring it to Seattle, it could be a good fit for Ewers. Particularly if the intention is to build a good offensive line and be able to run the ball effectively as they do in San Francisco.

For that reason, I wouldn’t rule out the Texas quarterback. Many have. I wouldn’t. Schneider travelled to watch him in person this season for a reason.

All three of these quarterbacks will have a range. I’m not suggesting the Seahawks will reach for any of them. There could be scenarios where all three come off the board before Seattle is comfortable selecting them. Yet I do think there’s a chance one of this trio could be brought in to play behind Smith, learning the system, with an opportunity to be the answer in the future.

It’s also important to remember if you select a quarterback on day two you are not explicitly committing to that player to start in the future. When Schneider was in Green Bay they drafted Brian Brohm with the #56 pick in 2008. This was three years removed from drafting Aaron Rodgers in round one, with Brett Favre still on the roster. Brohm lasted one season and was cut.

The point is, the Packers were taking shots to prepare for life after Favre. They found their solution with Rodgers. Now, the Seahawks are effectively planning for life after Wilson and Smith. So far, they’ve gone through Lock and Howell. This year, they may draft someone else. It doesn’t mean that person will be the answer. It wouldn’t prevent them from taking a quarterback early in 2026. It’d simply mean adding someone, as they did with Howell, to take a shot.

I admire Dillon Gabriel for all he achieved in college football but I don’t think he is likely to end up in Seattle. He lacks the arm talent or the size. In Mobile he was far too hesitant to throw, was late on too many passes and he struggled throwing to his right on the move (he’s left handed). Jalen Milroe had a terrible week and I’m afraid to say looked positively undraftable. Tyler Shough has a reasonable arm and decent size but I think he’s very much a day three player with backup potential.

Max Brosmer and Brady Cook, who both attended the Shrine Bowl, struggled based on what I watched of the game and both have limitations (although I do think Brosmer has something about him). Kurtis Rourke is recovering from an ACL injury and likewise has some limitations. Kyle McCord gets a good press online but I don’t see a future NFL starter.

It won’t shock me if we see Geno Smith re-signed to a compromise contract, followed by the Seahawks drafting one of Will Howard, Riley Leonard or Quinn Ewers on day two of the draft. We’ll see how the process unfolds. It’s going to get interesting over the next few weeks.